SF sweep brings them to 2 games back of the Jays. Would love to see a line up shake up using Ugly's calendar stats:

Would love for Schneider to use that line up as a baseline for now:

1. RF Lukes
2. 3B Okamoto
3. C Valenzuela
4. 1B Guerrero
5. DH Kirk
6. LF Springer
7. CF Varsho
8. 2B Clement
9. SS Gimenez

I don't care much about the lineup because everyone sucks. Since June 15, that lineup you posted has WRC+ of:
85
122
15
50
4
114
81
55
131

Meaningless trivia: The Giants have lost 11 games in a row in which Rupp started.

Actually your numbers are good and I'd revise the top of the order to be:

Gimenez
Okamoto
Lukes
Vlad
Springer

Kirk is broken.

Kaz seems to be slumping again

Jays have about 72 games left. That gives them a chance at around a 675 inning scoreless streak!

Jays scoreless through 5 innings, now at 29 scoreless in a row. It's the longest since 31 in a row 18 years age. Team record for futility is 32.

Kirk isn’t broken (although he looks terrible at the plate and in the field). However, he’s unlikely to be right until September at the earliest and probably not until next year.

On the other hand, Gausman looks vaguely toasty.

Guessing the Popkins replacement discussions are ongoing. I'll be surprised if he's still the hitting coach coming out of the AS break.

It's just such a weird and miserable season and I can't blame Schneider because what can he do? Stars cant hit, the team can't play defense, starters all got hurt. Juggling the lineup isn't going to do anything. I can't blame Atkins. Team went to 7th game of World Series last year and they added Cease who has been one of the best starters in baseball, added Okamoto who has been easily their best position player and way better than the guys they let go, added Rogers who has been great, added Miles who has been great and added Ponce who got hurt in first game and added Sanchez who has been mediocre (but at low cost).

The reason the Jays suck is really just this. as of July 5th. Vlad, Kirk, and Springer combined:

2025:
.295/.377/.484
70 HR
11.2% BB
141 wRC+
13.8 fWAR

2026 pace:
.241/.322/.354
25 HR
9.9% BB
91 wRC+
1.8 fWAR

That's it. Those three guys were amazing last year and while you'd expect regression from Springer, you didn't from Vlad and Kirk and maybe 9-11 WAR from them felt reasonable. not 1.8!!!!

Agreed Glevin. If you had said that the team that nearly won the World Series last year would add Cease, Okamoto, Rogers, Miles, Ponce, and Sanchez to the group they had (while losing Bichette), and they'd get the seasons they're having from the first four of those, you'd think things were going great. Not to mention Varland who they picked up at the deadline last year has been one of the best relivers in MLB.

The problem is so many of the guys who're already here have completely collapsed. 

I don't think it will be your typical Blue Jays trade deadline because of the amount of money ownership now spends on the team. They have a massive payroll and a massive market, which was unlocked last season. I'd say they're more likely to take on money, whether it's a Devers or, perhaps they are in the Skubal sweepstakes as well. It just goes hand in hand with playing at the table with the big spenders.

Once again let us point out how on point and rational this board is... It appears we have consensus on the bad luck or inexplicable results so far. Let me add that I am not a big Scheider fan (mostly because he's not Kevin Cash) but there isn't much he can do...it's all on the players.

Definitely I see a change coming with Popkins being the sacrificial lamb so to speak.

I don't listen to Blair and Barker often but I did yesterday and they were both on point. "Bad habits spread fast," and they were calling out the team..."even if they make the playoffs they will get steamrolled," or words to this effect. "Why wait, improve the team now for this season and for next season. The notion that you have to either buy and go all in or sell and do a fire sale is ridiculous...look at Varland and Berrios deals...there's no reason you can't get better for next year which will also help this year."

Some interesting points. I tuned into the game yesterday and was waiting for anything from this team to make me flinch. It didn't happen. Listless and apathetic and those Michael Cera ads are the worst of all time...who thought he would be a good spokesperson for the Blue Jays? Aimless and wasteful....give me Keanu Reaves or someone else to inject some excitement or at least those less cheesy incrustables commercials.

Quick side note: temporary GM in California Mr. Mozeliak said unequivocally that Mike Trout will not be traded. Boo. Now I have to hope San Diego is dumb enough to trade Fernando Tatis to the Blue Jays.

If I was in charge I'd be seriously listening to any offers right now that could help in '27 and beyond. I doubt they will add much in salary unless it helps in the future - so no Devers I doubt anyone wants that deal unless it comes with some underpriced talent too - but SF is quite rich (now that it has exclusive control over Oakland too I assume) so no need to dump.

I keep expecting SD to do a dump but they never do - they are now 1 game further from the playoffs than the Jays are. But could they be silly enough to trade Fernando Tatis Jr. with that 8 years left after this one deal ($271.7 mil)? I'd think they'd demand taking on Machado ($273.3 over 7) or Bogaerts ($178 over 7) as well. Yuck.

Seems Atkins is best at deals for prospects who are under the radar (ala Gillick - who found so many it was crazy). So I'd expect that type of deal - free agents to be for prospects who we go 'who?' with. Maybe attempt to get a name who can look good for the media/general public to dream on, but really odds are that isn't what helps in '27 and beyond. '26 is only going to work out if Vlad gets going, fast, and another hitter or two emerges now. Time is running out fast.

2027 Blue Jays features the following likely notable departures and additions:

Out:
Gausman
Bieber
Scherzer
Varsho
Springer
Garcia
Straw

In:
Perry
Bloss
Ponce
Berrios
Santander
Barger

Straw will likely be back in the same role, unless they extend Varsho and decide to actually find a decent RH OF (and perhaps even then).

Berrios isn't going to pitch, maybe at all, in 2027. If so it will be very late in the year.

Also, while I am not saying we can just write it in ink, there's a fairly strong chance Gausman will be back next year even if they trade him. Unless he retires. Make of that what you will.

if, surprisingly, Mazoliak were allowed to trade anyone else (not Trout) it would be typical Atkins to try and get Detmers. Like Joe Ryan he has control but the Twins are as close as the Jays are and may hold. Same with Alcantara, unless the collapse the Marlins can't defend trading him. That means Detmers, Soriano, and Waca from the Royals (I'm skeptical they want to let him go) are the SP with control beyond 2026.

I don't really think they'd be in deep on Skubal, the competition would be too tough. One thing that jumped out at me - offensively the Jays need a RH hitting OF. If you believe Bowden at the Athletic - so do half or more of the other potential contenders. Second only to "bullpen help" among the needs he cites.
Why? Because if you have a good one he is almost certainly not available. They are remarkably rare.

Also? I'd be STUNNED ifthey fire Popkins this year at all, let alone mid-season. Nothing that's hamstringing this success leads directly back to his work. As others have noted, between injuries (in which I count Springer's toe) and Vlad falling off a cliff, that's more than enough to account for overall offensive distress.

It is true that there are identifiable failures like situational hitting, but that feels more random than a coachable fix.

Part of what we have to reckon with is that 2025 was 5 or 6 months of catching basically EVERY break. It felt like magic because, so to speak, it was. That was always likely to regress to the norm, which is why they went out and added a lot more talent. What we got, rather than the mean, was the opposite outcome. Karma if you believe in that sort of thing. What has happened this year is also likely to regress to the mean.

At some point.

No way to know when.

In 2025, the Jays lost Santander to an injury essentially the whole year (first completely ineffective then on the IL), Varsho for half a year, Bichette for a while, and Bowden Francis.  I'd say that they had about average luck with their position players and above-average with their pitchers.  They made an excellent adaptation to the issues they had last year, but this year, it was just way too much and the whole team has been dragged down by it.  The Dodgers have the kind of depth to weather this level of problem, but the great majority of teams do not.  

Part of what we have to reckon with is that 2025 was 5 or 6 months of catching basically EVERY break.

I think too few fans acknowledged this when setting their baseline expectations for this year's team.

I mean.. I didn't expect Varsho to hit 40 or 50 HR or whatever pace he was on last year - but I didn't expect his defence to also crater. Lukes getting hurt just as he caught fire.. Barger basically out all year, etc. And while I'm not a true Vlad believer, I didn't expect him to be below 700 OPS either.

Gausman has remained healthy, but it seems like the league has finally adjusted to him? Only 2 pitches, eventually the league catches up, I would guess. Maybe he should go back to the NL for a while? 

Not surprised by Bieber - I posted sometime in May (IIRC) that him accepting the player option way below market value was a bad sign. Ponce was unfortunate. Scherzer is probably toast - feel good story about the letter from the daughter notwithstanding, I didn't want him back. He was too unreliable last year already.

There were a lot of small cracks last year starting to show (Bieber, Lauer, Scherzer) that were expected to hold, and while the additions have been good, the old cracks did not hold as expected but grew much larger. Sure, Kirk is better than Heineman was, but he's taking playing time away from Valenzuela (who may be getting out-of-rhythm now due to less playing time), etc. 

They didn't just now figure out Gausman after 5 years. Last year he had a seven game stretch heading into the break which yielded a 4.85 ERA. After the break his ERA was 2.81.

I wouldn't worry about him yet.

Gausman hates pitching without run support.
That's one thing I remember from 2024.

Chad Dallas is in SF.

and Pinango is off to AAA

Too many left handed bats? Or not enough defense?

Keys at DH.
Clase in LF.

George not in the lineup.

Dallas replaces Fisher who is on the bereavement list.
Clase will be out of options next year.

I like these moves but wonder why Springer isn't back.