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Four games against the best team in the American League? What could go wrong?

Let's find out.

The Yankees might not be the best team in the AL, actually. I notice that Cleveland is scoring more runs and allowing fewer. The Bombers are down to a two man offence - Giancarlo Stanton had been playing well, but in a totally unforeseen development, he's had to go on the IL and is expected to be out for about four weeks. Anthony Rizzo was already on the IL and won't be back until mid-August at the earliest, Anthony Volpe has been mired in a slump these last three weeks, and Gleyber Torres has been benched.

But Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are able to make up for all these troubles by themselves. Judge is essentially submitting an exact replica of his magnificent MVP campaign in 2022. Except his time, he's basically an every day centre fielder, rather than shifting between RF and CF all the time. As for Soto, as you can imagine, he has found Yankee Stadium III (career .288/.421/.582) a much more pleasant place to hit than Petco Park (.237/.381/.426).

I don't think anyone expected the pitching to be quite this good, especially with Gerrit Cole, last year's Cy Young winner, only now making his return to the rotation. After his rocky first year in the Bronx, Carlos Rodon is once more looking like the guy who pitched so well for the White Sox and Giants; Nestor Cortes seems more or less recovered from the shoulder problems that cost him much of the last season. He's been the tough luck man on the staff. The Yankees are averaging better than 5 runs per game in support of Rodon, Stroman, and Gill. They've all said "thank you very much" and collectively sport a 25-10 record.  Cortes has been getting just 3.68 runs per game, which is why he has a 4-6 record.

The bullpen has been pretty good - not as elite as Cleveland's, not as gruesome as Toronto's. You probably have a certain degree of familiarity with Clay Holmes, the Yankees closer, and Luke Weaver and Tommy Kahnle have been around for years. But Michael Tonkin? He's an extremely tall RH reliever who made his debut with the Twins back in 2013. He's 34 years old now, he's been released four times, and he's been claimed off waivers twice this season. That last claim was put in by the Yankees near the end of April, and in 20 appearances, Tonkin has put up a 1.04 ERA.


Thu 27 June - Rodon (9-4, 3.86) vs Berrios (6-6, 3.43)
fri 28 June - Stroman (7-3, 3.15) vs Kikuchi (4-7, 4.00)
Sat 29 June - Cortes (4-6, 3.40) vs Bassitt (6-6, 3.45)
Sun 30 June - Cole (0-1, 9.00) vs Gausman (6-6, 4.26)
Yankees at Blue Jays, June 27-30 | 152 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
dalimon5 - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#448368) #
Mlbtraderumors has their updated top 10 MLB free agents this coming off season and Kikuchi is not on the list.
soupman - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#448370) #
Sounds like the James Click rumours are heating up. if he isn't going to move to canada, then that's a pass for me. i'm not at all convinced that would be a good hire for GM. Crane's team went from a joke to 2 titles and constant contention in about a decade...around the amount of time Shapiro has helmed the Jays with much weaker results. Crane canned Click. This is a guy that wanted to hire Friedman in 2011, who gave Luhnow carte blanche, but had friction with Click for whatever reasons.

I'm not sure I understand the reasoning behind firing Atkins who, last I checked, is merely a consensus communicator of an entire team which includes Click. So you fire Atkins to bring in a guy that advised and agreed with every move that you're firing him for? I don't understand that logic at all.

Ducey - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#448371) #
We have no idea what happens behind the scenes.

Click could have different views of what should be happening, but Atkins doesnt implement them.

I would say that Click winning a world series 2 years after he became GM likely means he benefited from the work of his predecessor. I dont know. He has a good reputation, I believe, and seems to have butted heads with the Astros interventionist owner.

The Jays need to find someone who excels in player evaluation.
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#448374) #

Asked what will factor into the decision to buy at deadline?

“we've put ourselves into a tough spot, we really need to add a day at a time and one pitch at a time, get things turned around to be in a position to buy.”

- Ross Atkins

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) June 27, 2024
Gerry - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#448375) #
I know there are still 83 games left in the season but there are only 30'ish before the trade deadline. I also know every game counts the same in the standings but I do think this is a huge series for the Jays. If they lose this series I don't see a way back. If they win there is hope. 2-2 is I don't know but they need to start getting back to .500 and time is running out.
John Northey - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#448376) #
Basically any interview with a GM should be boring with minimal information. Their job is to get the best result long term for the team, and sometimes to focus on a single season over all else. AA had that twice (2013 and 2015), one worked, one didn't. Atkins has been in 'win now' mode for 4 years straight - '21-'24, plus in '16-'18 although 17/18 were really not much chance, no GM could've saved those teams imo, it was sell time but I suspect the team was told to keep trying anyways. Right now looks to be the same as 17/18 - a team that is not a contender but isn't allowed to dump as 2025 season ticket sales are being pushed at the moment, and TV ratings need to stay high for Rogers bottom line.

So realistically what do I expect - a team that tries to stay in eyeshot of contending for a playoff slot. I could see minor trades for relief help, but that's about it. Most likely waiver wire attempts to improve. Come late July the team might give permission to dump a few salaries to get under the luxury tax, thus saving the club a few million in 2024 and 2025 and 2026 (once reset it'll take time to get to max tax).

Worst case? Jays suck for the next month really bad - get 15+ out of the race, thus only fools would believe in them. Then the Dodgers make a killer offer for Bo that the Jays just can't refuse and boom, there goes the biggest piece possible.
92-93 - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#448378) #
"We have not received many or a significant number of calls asking for our players that are on short contracts." - Atkins

dalimon5 - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#448380) #
"I'm not sure I understand the reasoning behind firing Atkins who, last I checked, is merely a consensus communicator of an entire team which includes Click. So you fire Atkins to bring in a guy that advised and agreed with every move that you're firing him for? I don't understand that logic at all."

The idea for me at least is that by changing the GM to someone with some spine, Shapiro will get a do-over. Instead of running the day to day (which I believe he does), he will have an actual GM pulling the strings beneath him and challenging him. That's the hope for me. I want a GM who can make a trade and only needs Shapiro to sign off for budget reasons. That's how AA and Beeston operated. With Shapiro he has admitted to being involved in all decisions with a "collective" of people. Sounds like he's sitting in a board room with 12 of his miniatures considering different ideas that fit into his structure and philosophy.
dalimon5 - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#448381) #
"Would you be surprised if you were traded before the trade deadline?"

Bo Bichette: "No. Not at all."
scottt - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#448382) #
You don't normally hire guys from the outside with no knowledge of the organization.
Shapiro was an exception. He hired Atkins because he already knew him.
On the manager side, AA hired Farrell and it was a huge disaster.
It was such a disaster that he re-hired Gibbons, the only guy he knew.
Atkins hired Montoyo but it seemed to be just so that Schneider could get some experience.

For a GM, you want someone who has demonstrated he can do the job.
You also want somebody who knows the org from the top unless you expect him to either make no changes (like AA in Atlanta) or do a fire sale like in Baltimore. 

Shapiro has the reputation of a top baseball exec.
Cherington came to work for him before taking over the Pirates.

The structure and philosophy is based on player development and sustainability.
I don't blame the front office for players taking step backs.
There has been no crazy back loaded contracts.
There has been a massive number of free agent signings compare to the previous administrations.
They've hit more than they've missed.

Gerry - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#448383) #
I don't agree that you can say any front office member would produce the same results as the GM.

Yes they operate as a group. But usually there is not 100% agreement within a group and the GM has the final say. In business I have disagreed with my bosses decision but once the decision is made you have to fall into line. I have also seen people saying they agree just to suck up when they in reality they don't agree. I have also seen a majority say lets do X but the boss is convinced of his ability and say thanks for that but we are doing Y.

You cannot assume James Click or anyone would do the same as Atkins. If you were in the decision making meetings and saw that he was 100% aligned with the GM then fine, but we don't know.

How many times have we seen a bench coach or hitting coach get the job when the manager was fired and put out different lineups and/or get different results?
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#448384) #
Prime aged star players running for the exits.

So fun being a jays fan.
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#448385) #
I don't trust Shapiro to hire any GM that's functionally any different than Atkins.
92-93 - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#448386) #
That's a shocking quote from Bichette. He couldn't be bothered to give the standard athlete non-answer?

What is up in that clubhouse that the team's two young stars are out there talking trade openly with the media?
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#448387) #
AA worked under Ricciardi and those two were polar opposites. I'd prefer going outside the org for the next hire, but it's not a lock that if they hired someone internally that they'd be the same as Atkins. It really depends on how much power the GM really has. I don't think Shapiro just approves things and works on renovation projects. He likely has at least some hand in baseball decisions. It's just a matter of how much and to what degree.

There's not enough of a sample with James Click to really get a sense of the type of GM he'd be. He inherited a team that was already good.
mathesond - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#448388) #
"So fun being a jays fan."

What's stopping you from switching allegiances? Why not throw your support behind an organization that does the things you approve of?
Ducey - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#448389) #
"Prime aged star players running for the exits."

Welcome to professional sports. Last I checked a lot of players, even those with QO's, want to go to free agency.

Its been pretty clear for a while that Vlad and Bo were going to market in 2025. All that has changed is that instead of holding onto them and going for it in 2024 and 2025 it now makes sense to look at moving them starting now.

Anyway in Bo's case he is a "Prime aged, former star player, who better pull his head out his ass soon or he wont be of any use to anyone".
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#448390) #
"What's stopping you from switching allegiances? Why not throw your support behind an organization that does the things you approve of?"

It's our team. Not Shapiro's. Shapiro is a mercenary available to the highest bidder. Not us.

Nigel - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#448391) #
Clement clearly did not learn his lesson the last time. You hit you get benched. Its not that complicated Ernie:)
Glevin - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#448392) #
Haven't had many innings like that this year. Very enjoyable especially against the Yankees.
Nigel - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#448393) #
The longer I watch baseball the more I come to the decidedly not novel concept that the three run homer is really the cadillac ride to success. More than anything it is what has been missing from this lineup.
Kelekin - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#448394) #
Well, that's definitely the most fun first inning we've had this year!
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#448395) #
and again!

here comes george.
92-93 - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#448396) #
I deserve some credit here after finally dropping Springer in fantasy earlier this week.
uglyone - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#448397) #
much appreciated, 92-93!
Kelekin - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#448398) #
If George can do that 10 more times, the apology tour will begin.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#448399) #
Took a look at the rolling xwoba for a few Jays. As of yesterday, over their last 100 pa:

Springer - .340
Turner - .373
Kirk - .343
Schneider - .309
Jansen - .248 (and on a steady downward decline since his start)
Bichette - .354
Vlad - .401
Varsho - .202
IKF - .268
Clement - .297

From my perspective, this demonstrates two things:
-People have been focusing their negative attention at the wrong folks
-There was evidence that George’s production had improved and there was optimism for better production , as Schneider (and possibly Atkins as well?) indicated a few days ago, again to much criticism

James W - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#448400) #
Nigel - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#448401) #
Varsho has gone into the tank pretty badly and is about to slip below the Mendoza line but 100 PAs is still a pretty small sample size.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#448403) #
Very good night for the Blue Jays. Wish I could say the same for POTUS in the presidential debate.
John Northey - Thursday, June 27 2024 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#448404) #
The Jays were fun and easy to watch, the debate was ugly.

Quite nice to see Springer finally starting to hit like he used to. Now, can he keep it up? Odds are against it but lets hope. It is fun to have hope. Sports gives us that. Politics gives us sadness on both sides of the border right now.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#448407) #
What would/should Atkins be looking for if he trades Bo? An every day player with power and a good, young pitcher who can step into the rotation this year or 2025? I haven't seen this discussed much except that the off season might be a better time to do it rather than the trade deadline.

Ducey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#448409) #
I dont think the Jays can look at trading Bo until he has a super hot month or two to show that the first half of this season was an aberration. Average SS with at OPS+ 77, which is all he has been thru the first 1/2 of the season, aint worth much. At least that is what Atkins will hear from rival GM's on the phone.

Other teams will look at him as historically good but maybe not someone who will figure it out this year - which is what they would want going into the playoffs.

Given there are only 30 days or so until the trade deadline, it wouldn't be then.

My fear is that Atkins will just keep him until his contract expires and then let him walk with just a QO comp pick in the 4th round.

That would be a mistake in the same way that Democrats didnt want to worry that Biden's age would be a concern.
dalimon5 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#448410) #
I've been discussing this at least on 5 or 6 game threads. The highest they will receive (even if he catches fire) is the equivalent of what the Rays received for 1 full year of Glasnow + extension. That's a high OPS OF with some pop and a good young starting pitcher. That's the hope. Two top 100 prospects.

Since there is likely no trade and sign scenario, it is more likely you get one of those types of prospects only + a top 5 organizational prospect (top 200 prospect for 2nd player).

Glevin - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#448411) #
Dodgers just make so much sense if they're trading Bo. They have a big need and tons of pieces. Something like Vargas and Sheehan might make sense but not sure if values are there.
BlueJaysLifer - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#448412) #
Wow. Isn't that what being a fan is about? It's certainly not blindly supporting a front office that has been good with pitching and NOTHING else. A front office that has sacrificed power in an effort to cut down on an already low K %? Thinking of ways your team can be better? NOT just jumping allegiances every time another org does things the way you think they should be? Personally I think the ridiculous emperor has no clothes attitude illustrated by fans and people in the FO has gotten this team where they are. Maybe if Shapiro had hired an experience GM instead of a initiate we wouldn't be looking at this time with elite talent and unprecedented spending so poorly!
vw_fan17 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#448413) #
Anyone else notice what looked like IKF on 2nd base relaying location to Springer right before HR #2? I mean, one player to another, that's within "the rules", as I understand it..
John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#448414) #
Glevin - I agree, if a Bo trade does happen the Dodgers are by far the best option. I like Dalton Rushing (C/1B, #49 overall) with the risk of Jansen leaving. He is 22, in AA hitting 261/376/473 - best OPS on the team for guys with 100+ AB's (one guy with 110 PA has a higher one) so odds are it isn't a ballpark illusion. Mix him with a lower prospect (ideally a pitcher) and we should have something worth considering. But any Bo trade will look bad for certain, so it wouldn't happen until late July.
scottt - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#448417) #
I don't see AA as a polar opposite of Ricciardi.
They both tried to compete on a budget.
It's not AA who acquired Bautista and Encarnation.
Riccardi had Travis Snider, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios with OPS+ under 100 in his last year.
Gibbons wasn't smart enough to platoon Adam Lind and that didn't change under AA.
Riccardi's teams didn't have the money to field a complete rotation behind Halladay.
Brian Tallet, Scott Richmond and Brett Cecil?
A few years later, AA had Happ (before he figured he could throw more fastballs), Josh Johnson and Todd Redmond, except Halladay was gone and Dickey was nowhere near as good.

John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#448418) #
Each GM had their shot...
  • Gillick had it most of the time, but couldn't get free agents to come until the 1991/92 offseason.
  • Ash had cash but wasted it early on, took a big shot a few times between 97 (Clemens, trading 6 prospects for 3 ML'ers) and 2000 (included the nightmare Michael Young for Esteban Loiza deal), but it all maxed out at 88 wins in '98 after they dumped vets at the deadline.
  • JPR slashed and burned early on, then got the cash in 2005/06 offseason (signed BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett, then traded for Overbay and Glaus), signed Frank Thomas the next offseason, traded for Scutaro, Rolan (for Glaus), etc. but it never worked out as they never won even 88 games.
  • AA like JPR was in slash and burn early on, then in 2012 traded for JA Happ midseason, and was handed cash in 2012/13 offseason when he did the big trades, getting a batch from Florida ( Emilio Bonifácio, John Buck, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, José Reyes) and the Mets deal (Noah Syndergaard+ for RA Dickey+), did other stuff (signed Martin to a record deal, dealt for Donaldson for example) until mid-2015 when he went nuts Tulowitzki, Price, Mark Lowe, Ben Revere for 12 players, mostly prospects plus Reyes) and got the only division title since 1993.
  • Atkins inherited a playoff team, made it back but then it fell apart due to age and injuries. Rebuilt fast for playoffs in 20/22/23 and now needs a faster rebuild.
Now, it is possible this team can keep up the momentum and make the playoffs with the weak AL this year - 5.8% odds right now of making the playoffs, so a touch better than 1 in 20. Still hope - in 2021 Atlanta was at 15% at this point and won it all (1.1% shot at the title) - better odds, but not that much better.
uglyone - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#448419) #
Team Win% In Last year as GM:

* Pat .478
* Ash .494
* JP .463
* AA .574
* Now .463

one of these is not like the other
uglyone - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#448420) # Sources say Jays never came close to deals for Vlad or Bo in past extension talks (does that affect their buy/sell call?). Plus many more trade notes on teams on bubble (Cubs, Tigers, etc.)

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) June 28, 2024
Ducey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#448421) #
Interesting article.

Says no chance Bo resigns, with Vlad just slightly better chance. Bassett of interest, along with the pending FA's.

Pirates also willing to deal pitching prospects for MLB bats.
dalimon5 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#448422) #
"one of these is not like the other"

Yes, the guy who was fired at the same time as his superior and had his superior's authorization to do as he pleased on his way out.

Ricciardi was criminally underrated. Better than Atkins, worse than AA.

AA was mediocre before his last year. If you consider he clearly had budget limits then he goes from mediocre to good. If he was never fired/told he was getting replaced would he have gone all in like he did?
John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#448423) #
Ummm, how was JPR any better than any other Jays GM? He won the fewest as a peak in a season (87 win peak reached once, the only year the Jays didn't finish 3rd or lower in the division by coming in 2nd). His drafts were infamous for being pathetic - Aaron Hill easily his best pick (24.4 WAR), others with 5+ (Shaun Marcum*, Ryan Roberts, Adam Lind*, Casey Janssen, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Yan Gomes*, Jake Marisnick*, Aaron Loup) - huh more than I thought: 1 20+, 4 in the 10's, another 5 in the 5+ range. AA had 5 10+ (Marcus Stroman [20+], Noah Syndergaard, Kevin Pillar, Joe Musgrove, Anthony DeSclafani), 9 who were 5-9.9 (Aaron Sanchez, Sam Dyson, Jon Berti, Daniel Norris, Kendall Graveman, Danny Jansen, Matthew Boyd, Jordan Romano, Lane Thomas). Both sucked compared to Ash (1997 alone had 1 30 and 2 more 20's in Orlando Hudson, Vernon Wells, and Michael Young, with Casey Blake in the 20s from the year before plus, of course, Roy Halladay). Atkins? 10+ just 1 (Bo), 5-9.9 just 2 (Biggio, Alek Manoah - I suspect Schneider will get there by next season with Horwitz not far behind) with more to come of course (the past 3 drafts have no one reaching yet but that'll change soon).

So basically in drafting Ash wins by a landslide (his first rounders were fantastic and includes a HOF'er), AA did solidly (he got extra picks by any means he could, very smart), Atkins doing OK but very early to say for sure (Bo could be a 20-30 guy in the end, others who knows?), JPR was better than I thought but not as good as he should've been with many picks in the 10-15 range. Gillick was infamous for sucking on the draft outside of surprising long shots (Stieb was an OF picked in the 5th round for example, while he took many tools guys in round 1 leaving behind Dwight Gooden, Roger Clemens, and many other HOF'ers or near HOF'ers - his best 1st rounders were his last 3 full years 91-93 - Green, Stewart, Carpenter I bet run by the same guys who ran it under Ash - how the heck did Ash blow that much talent in the farm plus a ton in the majors? Sad just remembering it).

JPR basically was Atkins at best with a smaller budget and even worse PR skills. Ran into him on an elevator once and he pretended to be on the phone to avoid talking with people (it was full of Jays fans going to expensive seating areas, I was there via friends, I was close enough to see the phone wasn't actually on).
dalimon5 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#448424) #
Look at the Jays right now competitively vs New York and Baltimore. Now imagine if they had the budget of 100 million instead of 250 million. That's what Ricciardi was working with. The Yankees and Red Sox were signing the best free agents it seemed year after year. Mike Mussina and Manny Ramirez would sign with those teams and the Jays had to scramble to try to entice the Gil Meche's and Lyle Overbay's of the world.

You can't just go by wins without factoring in the competition. Shapiro and Atkins caught the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles during a downswing for most of their tenure so far.
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#448425) #
I'm not particularly interested in historical evaluations of GM performance but I will say that it is odd that these conversations swirl without any recognition of team payroll. Nothing in baseball correlates to winning even remotely as closely as payroll. There are exceptions of course (see Tampa). It's pretty difficult to compare GMs as a consequence. Its clear that AA had a mediocre to poor record over his tenure until his final season but he also operated with the following team payroll rankings in MLB (2009 - 16th; 2010 - 22nd; 2011 - 24th; 2012 - 23rd; 2013 - 10th; 2014 10th and 2015 10th). Payroll resources have been upped in recent year relative to that (significantly in the past 2 years). And Shapiro should get some credit for getting an increased payroll from Rogers. That was a big accomplishment.
uglyone - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#448426) #
"AA poor aside from one year"

AA Team Win% Ranks: #5, #7*, #13, #14, #14, #20, #22

Atkins Win% Ranks: #7, #9, #9, #11, #19, #21, #23 #26

92-93 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#448427) #
Kiermaier has good career numbers vs. Stroman (.297/.901 with 2HR in 37AB) and still can't crack the lineup tonight while Barger plays LF. He is not long for this team.

I'd probably have just rested Turner.
dalimon5 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#448428) #
My goodness August, we all know AA vs Atkins, John and I were comparing Ricciardi and Atkins.
John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#448429) #
WE do have opening day payroll info for JPR and AA's time as Jays GM, as well as for Atkins. Opening day being most informative as that is what hope they had going into each season. Rank vs the other 30 ML teams. Via Cot's Contracts
  • JPR: 2002-2009: 11, 23, 22, 25, 16, 16, 10, 16
  • AA: 2010-2015: 20, 22, 21, 8, 9, 10
  • Atkins: 2016-2024: 13, 11, 8, 21, 20, 13, 11, 7, 6
  • Ash we only have 2000/01: 21, 10
  • Gillick we know had the top payroll in MLB for 1992/1993.
So all had shots with a top 10 payroll, AA and Atkins made the playoffs with it, as did Gillick. JPR & Ash couldn't get to 89 wins (minimum for any Jays team making the playoffs).

Before anyone screams it - yes, from the mid 90's to 2013 the Yankees were #1 in MLB for payroll. Far beyond anyone else, first to $100 mil, first to $200 mil, the lowest they have been is 6th in 2018 when the Jays were in full hangover mode post 15/16, otherwise 4th is the lowest the Yankees have been in years (just once #1 in payroll post 2013, 2020). The Red Sox were top 5 during JPR and AA's time, dropping below the top 6 in 2021, bottoming out at #12 in 2023/24. During that time the Rays (2009-now) have been consistent contenders with 2010 being the peak (#22 in payroll) - they were #10 overall for payroll last in 2000 (when they came in dead last in the East, 1 up on the last place AL team). The O's? last top 10 was 2017, 4th in 2000 was their last time in the top 5, normally in the Jays range every year (20's or 10's) but 26th or lower from 2019 to now.

The Yankees & Red Sox were formable in JPR and AA's time but the Jays weren't in the Rays territory for payroll and never hit the depths the O's reached (consistent last place team) despite similar payrolls. Using payroll as an excuse for JPR & AA is not a good thing to use. JPR promised the Jays he could contend on a shoestring like the A's were doing back in 2000 but failed.
John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#448430) #
Wow, Springer is going great since I gave up 100% on him a few days ago. Love it. Guess I need to give up on guys more often :)
dalimon5 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#448431) #
Remember that Ricciardi and AA didn't have the Wild card expansion slots to get into the playoffs.
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#448432) #
Horwitz just does so many things well at the plate. That was a professional HBP. He could have jumped back but nope. So good.
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#448433) #
Oh man that was bad base running by Vladdy. Varsho maybe should have helped him out there though by holding up the stop sign? Hard to say, maybe Varsho couldn’t see where the ball went.
AWeb - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#448434) #
No judgement on him as a person, but I hate watching Guerrero play at this point. Constantly making boneheaded plays, already tonight in the field to cost the only run and now getting tagged out at home by a goddam mile on a bounced pitch. On last night's homer which appeared to clear the wall by all of 6 inches, he was once again just trotting like a gimme homer...he's been burned on that too many times (more than once, ever, in a career is too many) as well. Jays up 3-1, I just turned off the game in disgust to do something else.
krose - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#448435) #
The fix is in.
greenfrog - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#448436) #
What does that mean, the fix is in?

I’ve been mostly taking a break from watching games lately — a refreshing break from mediocre baseball.
John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#448437) #
Frustrating game - Jays had a chance to blow it wide open, fail, then Kikuchi has trouble for the first time and is burned by Soto, then they pull him for Pearson who shows why he is a failed prospect. Sigh. I want to believe in this team but stuff like this makes it hard. They aren't out of it but dang this is frustrating. I just have it on in the background now while I do other stuff.
Ducey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#448438) #
Dont look now but IKF is ahead of Chapman in OPS+
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#448439) #
Mostly mistakes of aggression and effort I think, but Guerrero’s had maybe the worst base running season from a Jay that I can remember.
John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#448440) #
Before today's games IKF was at 1.8 fWAR, Chapman 1.8 as well. Go figure. Chapman a 105 wRC+, IKF 111 before tonight, 116 at the moment (2 for 3 with a HR). Nice job by Atkins there in the end. Even though he did try to hold onto Chapman.
John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#448441) #
BR WAR has IKF at 2.9, Chapman 2.8, 110 to 107 OPS+ before tonight which only helps IKF (even with the miscue on defense).

Amazed that call was overturned, looked like the runner snuck under Jansen's terrible tag.
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#448442) #
1 for 4 in offseason moves - team and GM performing as one!
pooks137 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#448443) #
Mostly mistakes of aggression and effort I think, but Guerrero’s had maybe the worst base running season from a Jay that I can remember.

Before tonight, Vlad had been picked off once and made 3 outs on the bases.

He's scoring 23% of the time (MLB average 31%, Jays 29%).

He's taking the extra base 32% of the time (MLB 42%, Jays 40%).

Ducey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#448444) #
I thought Vlad was doing better this year with his running.

My impression is that nobody will ever sit him or Bo down and sort some things out.

You know, they might get upset and want to leave, before, uh, they leave.
Ducey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#448445) #
Another couple of games like this and someone is getting fired.
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#448446) #
Vladdy is on pace for between -5.5 and -6 BsR. That’s a number that is really hard to accomplish if you aren’t a slow as molasses C. It will end up being one of the worst base running numbers in baseball.
Marc Hulet - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#448447) #
At what point do the Jays actually do something about Mayza? Convince him to join Swanson in AAA (who is still imploding). And Varsho is probably still hurting. Serven has also been moved up to the taxi squad which suggests Kirk might be banged up.

Jays like to carry hurting players and get 40% from them rather than play it safe and let them rest nagging injuries
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#448448) #
Vladdy’s BsR number this year is his worst of his career by a fair margin. Up until the beginning of last year, Vladdy was close to neutral as a base runner. He started declining last year and he’s absolutely cratered this year.
pooks137 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#448449) #
At what point do the Jays actually do something about Mayza? Convince him to join Swanson in AAA (who is still imploding).

As you know, Mayza has accumulated 5 years service time this spring so can refuse a demotion to Buffalo (similar to Biggio's situation).

Mayza watching what has happened to Swanson is all the more reason to not accept a demotion - he's been banished,continued to be awful & has no timetable for return.

John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#448450) #
Ducey - don't bet on it. I don't see any big changes until the off-season. Not much point to it right now.

Right now our pen imploded thanks to guys like Mazya & Swanson forgetting how to pitch when both were expected to be key's to a solid year. Garcia & Romano, also key pieces, both injured. Those 4 very important pieces being gone for all intents makes Schneider's job much, much harder. Mix in Manoah getting hurt when he finally figures it out and the staff is a nightmare outside of the big 4. The pen is now at the 1983/84 level it seems when pre-season it looked closer to the 92/93 model. Tonight just another example of it - Mayza & Pearson both looked like guys we could count on going into the season and both sucked horribly. Francis now forced to come in back-to-back games and sucking hard.

Most of his other decisions that failed were ones that one can understand - keeping Springer in the lineup hoping for a recovery which finally seems to have come (and then he gets hurt, hopefully not badly). Seeing Bo go from a 120+ OPS+ to a sub 80, Kirk still sucking with the bat, Jansen now sucking too. Kiermaier brought back and goes from a 104 OPS+ to a 56.

At times I've been frustrated too and wanted Schneider fired, but outside of his strong love for Springer there isn't much I can strongly complain about. Atkins... well, he is a solid but unspectacular GM imo. He did rebuild from a 95 loss team to a playoff team quickly, but couldn't get the next step done, and now another rebuild might be needed but fast to avoid another 90+ loss season. Can he do it? No idea, gut says no, but I'm certain we'll find out one way or the other.
Ducey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#448451) #
John, I'm not saying anyone getting fired is rational. Its just that, for the reasons you mention, there are not a lot of other options. After enough drubbings they have to do something. Turfing the skipper or GM or hitting coach will buy some more time.
uglyone - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#448452) #
why fire anyone after a decade of futility?

stay the course.
vw_fan17 - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#448453) #
Who was that behind the plate impersonating a major league umpire? I can't imagine how bad the scorecard will look, unless the pitch locator icon is somehow off by 6+ inches on Stroman's pitches? He got like 5+ calls of at least half a foot off the plate..
John Northey - Friday, June 28 2024 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#448454) #
Well firing mid-season rarely works out - 1989 the obvious exception, as was the Phillies in '23. For the Jays this year a change won't get them to the playoffs. As I said, what else could Schneider do? I'd have moved Springer down the order more until he finally started hitting (as he seems to be now), and played the kids more. But a new manager won't make Kirk or Jansen figure out which end of the bat to use, won't magically make Mayza figure out how to get guys out again, won't get the injured pen to get healthy again, or get Bo to start hitting like he can. If he was running the team like Jimy Williams did then yes, a change would help. But he hasn't put Kirk at 3B yet, or got Vlad to tell him to kiss his purple behind. If there is a player revolt happening behind the scenes then yes a change would help, but afaik there isn't one.

That all said, after the season all bets are off. Atkins will be on the firing line, as will all coaches and the manager. I wouldn't be shocked by a lot of firings in early October once the season is officially over unless a miracle happens.
Michael - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:33 AM EDT (#448455) #
"1 for 4 in offseason moves - team and GM performing as one!"

In terms of decent sized offseason moves (I.e., not minor league deals) there was:

December 28, 2023 Agreed to terms with CF Kevin Kiermaier on a one-year contract.
December 29, 2023 Agreed to terms with 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year contract.
January 30, 2024 Agreed to terms with INF Justin Turner on a one-year contract.
February 9, 2024 Agreed to terms with RHP Yariel Rodriguez on a five-year contract.

KK is 1 year $10.5 M contract. WAR year to date 0.3 (based on 0.5 defensive WAR). Projecting rest of year this will be an overpay by about $5M in a 1 year deal.

IKF is 2 year $15M contract ($7.5 each year). WAR year to date 2.9. Even if he were merely 0 WAR from this point forward this year and next he'd already be worth the contract. This was a major hit (and not necessarily that popular of a pick from the consensus at the time, so kudos to the front office).

Turner is a 1 year $13M contract. WAR year to date is 0.2; however some of that is horrible defense WAR, some is May when he was sick, his OPS+ on the season is 106 and if you skip May much more than that. If you project for the rest of season using non-May data he'll be easily worth his contract especially if he is DH more than in field. If you project based on year to date including May and field play, he'll be an overpay by about $7-8M.

Yariel signed a 5 year $36M contract ($3.3 M so far this year). He's been -0.4 WAR in only 16.2 IP so far this year so a disaster so far, but it is too soon to tell on the 5 year deal.

But if you just take the salary for this year $10.5 + $7.5 + $13 + $3.3 you get $34.3 M. For WAR season to date you get 0.3 + 0.2 + 2.9 + -0.4 = 3.0. At around $10M/WAR the Jays have almost broke even on their 3 FA by the half way point and project to comfortably do so on the full year. So yeah, in one way you can say they are 1 for 4, but I think they are more like 2.5 for 4 with IKF a huge hit, JT about right (most likely), KK a little bit of an overpay but not a disaster, and Yariel too soon to really tell given it is a 5 year play, but the early small sample results are disastrous.

I think you can make a pretty good case for players/gaps not filled (bullpen, offense, etc.), but overall the FA signings were pretty reasonable despite the season so far.

Again it is more the failures of Springer, Bo, Kirk, etc. that have really sunk them (hopefully they are turning things around as Springer has been on fire the last few days), more so than the major league acquisitions (minor league invites like Vogelbach, Votto, etc. I don't think really count much as they are lottery ticket invites).
Glevin - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#448456) #
"Again it is more the failures of Springer, Bo, Kirk, etc. that have really sunk them"

Absolutely. Also, the idea that you can measure free agency like that "1/4" is silly. Like, the Angels signed Ohtani, Zach Cozart,and Rene Rivera in one off season. Is that 1/3? If you sign one horrid contract like Rendon and then two decent minor league deals are you 2/3? Ideally, the Jays sign someone like Pederson instead of a Kiermeier maybe but these aren't moves that would change the trajectory of the season.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#448457) #
Orlando Cepeda passed away.
Nigel - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#448459) #
Michael the problem with that math is that WAR is not linear. A 1 WAR player is not signing a $10m per year contract in free agency. For example, the vast majority of posters on this board said that Biggio would clear waivers because his $4.3 m salary was an overpay. Biggio is pretty much the poster child for a 1 WAR player these days. 1WAR = $10m is a very misunderstood and misused concept. I completely agree with your base points which iare that the failure of the core is the main issue and that so far the IKF signing was very wise (I was definitely wrong on that one). The other large signings have been very poor to date.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#448460) #
I remember Cepeda as a member of the '67 Cardinals.  Cha-cha won the MVP that year, after coming over from the Giants in '66.  Great hitter.

The arc of the Giants and the Cardinals at that time illustrates the importance of wise stewardship by management.  The Giants' system kept producing great players.  They had Willie Mays in his prime, and would add McCovey, Cepeda, Juan Marichal, Gaylord Perry, Felipe and Matty Alou, Manny Mota,  But they had too many players at the right end of the defensive spectrum and problems at SS, 2B and C.  The Cardinals in 1962 had Stan Musial who was still great at 41, a good young second baseman in Julian Javier, Ken Boyer and Bill White at the corners, a young Curt Flood in CF, and a pretty good rotation with Bob Gibson, Larry Jackson, Ernie Broglio, Ray Washburn, and Ray Sadecki on the way.  In '63, they acquired Dick Groat to stabilize their shortstop situation for Don Cardwell, and brought up McCarver as their catcher.  Broglio went for Lou Brock in 1964 and Sadecki for Cepeda in 1967.   And by 1967, they had Dal Maxvill at shortstop.

It is not great to be backed up at 1B and the corner OF. 
Ducey - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#448461) #
Mayza DFA
lexomatic - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#448462) #

Brutal game even lacking context from individual events and impact on game.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#448463) #
In fairness to the Giants, Tom Haller solved their C issue mostly and they added Jim Ray Hart at 3B.  By 1967, they had a great rotation (and gave up the fewest runs in the league), Haller, McCovey, Jim Ray Hart and Mays and really should have been winning, but blew it all in large part because in addition to no offence at all from their double play combination, they somehow not managed to hold on to enough in the corner outfield. 
Mike Green - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#448464) #
It was a brutal game from a ball/strike perspective.  Stroman was getting more than an inch or two both down and away, whereas Kikuchi wasn't getting pitches well in the zone particularly to Soto.  VGJ did get one obviously unfair call.  It's reasonably possible that with a fair strike zone, the Blue Jays would have had a larger lead than 3-1, and Kikuchi's pitch to Soto that turned the game would not have been as juicy. 
85bluejay - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#448465) #
The Nationals are apparently calling up outfielder James Woods on Monday - I'd say the Nationals have to be happy with the development of the prospects from the Juan Soto trade.
Katie - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#448466) #
What an ignoble end for the player with the 8th most pitching appearances in club history.
Nigel - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#448467) #
I wonder if the situation with Mayza would have played out differently if handled differently at the beginning of the season? He was clearly not right in spring training and in April. His velocity was way down. Maybe shutting him down early might have helped? I’m not saying it would have or even that Mayza would have agreed with that assessment. But he hasn’t been the same pitcher as he has been historically from day 1 this year.
Ducey - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#448468) #
If they Jays had a decent farm system they could bring up a bright new shiny prospect up. Instead, they are replacing Mayza with Jose Cuas, who they got off waivers last week.

Technically his ERA is better than Mayza's, at 7.43. So there's that.
John Northey - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#448469) #
While I agree WAR isn't linear - a 1 WAR player is basically indistinguishable from a 0 WAR player due to natural variability - the signings this winter only look better with most of the WAR concentrated in one player at a key position (IKF). By fWAR you get 1.9 for IKF vs bWAR of 3.0 - a pretty big spread. BR has his defense WAR at #1 in the AL (1.6 bWAR of value there), fWAR has him at 5.0 runs (1/2 a WAR) #1 at 3B but #21 in MLB.

Turner gets a defensive penalty for being a DH plus his May was horrific (8 wRC+) vs April 151 and June 171. Basically outside of the month he was sick he has been every bit as good as Ohtani. Sweet. FYI: his July has been 160+ for each of the past 3 years so lets keep our fingers crossed.

Kiermaier? Well, there is a disaster. 55 wRC+ but his defense has kept his WAR over 0, barely. Guess that is the plus with him, even if he forgets which end of the bat to use he still has value if used properly and often he has been - defensive replacement late for one of the kids.

Yariel Rodriguez I wrote off 2024 for pre-season, he didn't pitch at all in 2023 and in an ideal world he would be in AA or AAA building up innings this year but the Jays pitching is FAR from ideal right now so he is taking his lumps at the big league level instead. Hopefully he is stronger in 2025 and beyond, as with a starting pitcher one good year can recover the entire value of his 5 year deal and 2 or 3 good years puts the Jays far ahead.

So, as always Atkins does well on free agency. IKF I was meh at best, not happy with the cash vs expected performance. I'm happy I was wrong. Turner outside of May has been very, very good. Kiermaier ... well ... his desire to up his power stats to get a better deal was obviously a flop - you can't switch from a singles hitter to a power hitter easily as he is learning. Hopefully things get better soon, but worst case he is an overpaid 4th OF.

FYI: Springer's hot streak has pushed him up to an 82 wRC+, still poor but not league worst territory anymore. Plus he is a positive in fWAR now at 0.6. Other old free agents still here - Kikuchi has been as good as we could hope, Bassitt solid, Gausman weak but all 3 are 1+ fWAR so far so hardly disasters. Vogelbach was a flop (but not that expensive), Clement has been good (like Vogelbach a minor league FA signing), Green when healthy has been solid. No nightmare free agent signings yet for Atkins - I think Kendrys Morales was his only real 'oh crap' signing which is good.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#448471) #
With Mayza DFA is it the beginning of the end?

Reports are now out to that Vlad and Bo never came close to resigning here during extension talks. Is that because they were not offered fair contracts or due to a refusal to stay with this organization long term?

Can the organization still sign one of them to build around or are they l looking at a brand new rebuild in 2026 with Shapiro and Atkins at the end of their contracts?
greenfrog - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#448472) #
I’m guessing that one reason the front office went so hard after Ohtani was to pivot from Guerrero Jr. and Bichette to another superstar who would generate more revenue and be just as (if not more) valuable on the field.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#448473) #
I think you're so right on that. How can they salvage their A grade pitching staff and get a clean up hitter and a LHH all in one shot? Ohtani. It would have allowed them to shore up the bullpen and then use their prospects like Tiedeman more easily as trade chips. Trade Vlad or Bo in the off season if things didn't max out and you still have a good rotation and core hitter for 2025.
SK in NJ - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#448474) #
If Bo and Vlad are no where close on extensions with the team, then it would be irresponsible if they are still on the team post-trade deadline given how this season has turned out. The team doesn't even have to tank or rebuild if Rogers is against it. Just maximize value on both players, and reallocate payroll to improve the roster in the winter. I would prefer a reasonable extension for Vlad (even if it's an overpay based on his history) but losing both for comp picks or trading them for scraps this time next year is just repeating the same mistake they made in 2017.
uglyone - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#448475) #
If they sell Bo and Vlad and blow it up don't expect any major signings in the offseason. They're not gonna keep spending big money while blowing it up. And no free agent will be interested anyways.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#448476) #
Free agents don't come here without an overpay. Gausman, Bassitt, Ryu, Springer, Martin...if you overpay they will come.
Eephus - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#448477) #
For the love of god don’t let him pitch through this. That was right off his forearm at a zillion miles an hour. I get the bullpen is a horrible disaster but…
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#448478) #
The pen reminds me of 2021. Tyler Chatwood was bad. So was Kay.
Saucedo and Borucki were inconsistent. Phelps was great but mostly injured.
They picked up guys here and there on waivers. Castro, Payamps, Barnes.

Michael - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#448479) #
Nice arm by Kirk. He's really doing well by defensive stats this year.
Michael - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#448480) #
Vlad on fire again. Good thing they brought the HR jacket back.
uglyone - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#448481) #
Vlad up to a 141wrc+ at the moment. That's on the way between "very good" hitter and "excellent" hitter.

And all the numbers have suggested it was only a matter of time before the elite power showed up again so there's good reason to think it's more than just a hot power streak.
Ducey - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#448482) #
Its the haircut.

Bo needs a buzzcut
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#448483) # "Jordan Romano has been shut down because of continued pain in his injured right elbow, manager John Schneider said Saturday. The two-time All-Star will visit Dr. Keith Meister in Texas on Tuesday, Schneider said."
Eephus - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#448484) #
To my eye it seems like Kirk doesn’t have the strongest arm in the world, but he’s gotten much better at getting rid of the ball quickly (less deliberate than he used to be) and his throws (especially day) have been right on the money bags.

Now if he could just find where ever it was he left his bat (today’s double not withstanding)
Eephus - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#448485) #
Boy, it is nice to see this non-cooked version of George again.
Michael - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#448486) #
18 RBI in 6 games for Vlad, which is better than anyone else this season in baseball according to the TV coverage.

The team looks a lot better when the offense is clicking like this.
electric carrot - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#448487) #
"The team looks a lot better when the offense is clicking like this."

Yes, this is the team I've been expecting to show up all year. Better late than never.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#448488) #
He's BAAA-AAAK....
Ducey - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#448489) #
Cuas doing a good Mayza imitation. First batter HR.
soupman - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#448490) #
i guess reminding vlad that he's allowed to hit fastballs worked.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#448491) #
Ducey, what kind of imitation are Vlad and Springer doing right now?
greenfrog - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#448492) #
Should the Blue Jays have extended Vladdy in the off-season, when his market value was lower? He’s now hitting like a star again, maybe taking him out of the sweet spot of shared risk.

If they can’t extend him, next month might be a good time to trade him. He has a wRC+ of 143 at the moment (excellent).
John Northey - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#448495) #
I wouldn't worry about extensions right now. We finally are seeing the team we hoped for (outside of the pen), lets just enjoy this for now. In a month the Jays will need to make a final decision on contender or not.

Vlad is back, and has indicated that he might want to stay here forever in the past, anything he said about the Yankees and the like is just negotiating. He has no ability to leave on his own until post 2025, same for Bo. Extension negotiations will get serious this winter with both and if a match can't be made the Jays will need to decide if offers for them are worth the PR hit of losing them in deals vs free agency. If the Jays want to pay whatever it costs to keep them they can afford it as shown with the Ohtani negotiations and past signings (Springer, Gausman, etc.). I expect the Jays to be chasing Soto hard this winter (he has Boras as an agent and has flip flopped from team to team so cash is all he cares about - probably $500 mil over 10+ years) ZiPS sees him as a near 6 WAR player for the next 3 years at least, and he has done nothing to bring that down this year. That is a $60 mil player thus paying $50 a year over 10 = $500 mil for ages 26-35, his core years, anything after that should be seen as bonus (IE: $500 mil over 15 years to cut the luxury tax hit, but need the value in years 1-10) That requires 50 WAR - a tall order but at 33 now that puts him in the 80's - a HOF lock, and right now I'd have trouble believing he won't do that. I expect the Yankees or Mets will give him what he wants, but if he decides the NY environment isn't ideal the Jays will have the cash to match if they want to.
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2024 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#448496) #
Vlad channeled daddy on that 3 run double.

Eephus - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#448497) #
Gotta follow up on my previous comment about Bassitt. Clearly my initial reaction of “he took a laser off his pitching arm for gods sake he can probably barely feel the right side of his body take him out before he pulls anything!”… was thankfully proved incorrect. The instant Judge hit that right off his arm I instantly was hoping it would be a brief 10 day IL stint.

Alas. I underestimated Bassitt. He got his way out of that tricky first inning, with his pitching arm at best feeling throbby… and emerged for the rest of the start with very tight sleeves along his pitching arm. To contain the swelling, one presumes.

And he still pitched great anyhow! It wasn’t a fanciful run of clean innings, no… but he just out-thinks hitters with his silly array of any pitch, any speed, in any place at any time. It’s often not pretty, but he just gets it done.
Ducey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#448498) #
"Ducey, what kind of imitation are Vlad and Springer doing right now?"

Springer has had 4 good games. Just like you called it, eh?

Might be a little early to put him in the all star game.

Vald is playing great, at least with the bat. Fun to watch for sure.

That IKF guy is playing great too. Those 3 players had 9 of the 14 hits yesterday. Not sure who else is going right now. Maybe Turner, if you like you DH to be a singles hitter.
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#448499) #
I actually did call Springer to bounce back before the season began, smarty pants. My previous post is to point out how focused on the negativity you are. I'll help you by letting you know it was a rhetorical question. I didn't need to know who Vlad was imitating, just that you decided to focus on the sole negative outcome with the worst player on the team (Cuas) when you had sooo many other things to comment on instead. Says a lot about one's frame of mind that they can only see (or decide only to see) the worst in things.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#448502) #
I remember that. Props to dalimon5 for showing faith in Springer when he was at his nadir (or close to it).
Ducey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#448503) #
I'm being realistic. They have 3 guys hitting (and Springer has abouta month of this before his seasons respectable), a bullpen that has literally fallen apart, 4 starters, a bad farm system and a GM who clothes himself in jargon to make up for the fact he ain't that smart.

I'm actually positive about a rebuild as it's the only way the mediocrity is going to be eliminated. I am always looking for a good prospect to cheer for. And love the draft.

No need to attack those that have different view than yours
Marc Hulet - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#448505) #
Before getting too excited about the summer of George, let's remember that it's still a small sample compared to the number of putrid ABs. Also, how much did playing Springer regularly while he was terrible hurt the club's results. Remember how long he occupied the leadoff spot and how terrible the club was (is?) in first inning...
bpoz - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#448506) #
IMO Ducey's opinion is fine. We have a weak record and June so far is 11W-15L. This team has earned negative comments. I admire the fortitude of the Bauxites that are being patient and are waiting for the trade deadline sell/buy. O Lopez and Espinal left early. Vogelbach and Biggio recently. About 5 pitchers have also left. These are facts that say the roster has/is changing a lot.

I speculate that as the season is near it's finish Minnesota & KC will be fighting the 2 WCs available because I see them having a few losing streaks. Below KC and above Oakland are 7 teams Texas (6Lstreak) and LAA (6W streak). I am wrong/right.

I want us to trade J Turner & KK for sure at the deadline so that prospects can get experience. Our big 4 SPs and Yimi/Green will be in high demand because there are a lot of desperate trading partners. Trading pitching will be very, very gutsy. I don't really expect it. Again right/wrong.
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#448507) #
It's not about Springer it's about the toxicity of posts day after day warranted or not. Springer was the worst hitter in the league for nearly three months and almost, almost single handedly sunk this teams chances. Nobody is contesting that. Just cool the jets on the sky is falling posts and the re-affirmation of said posts day after day. If he's motivated to keep harping on the realities and intends to ensure nobody falsely gets their hopes up after a historic week for the offense then I I am happy to do the same and call out the beating of a dead horse each time.

Let him defend his default views.
uglyone - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#448509) #
Accurately pointing out bad play isn't toxic.

John Northey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#448512) #
For the bad farm system - I see in 2023/24 Schneider and Horwitz showing well, Barger has slowed again after his horrid first call up, then a hot streak, now cold again with an 0-12 streak, or if you prefer 1 for 18 after a 6-14 streak when he got called up - can't really complain about his playing time as he started most games since his last call up. No catchers in the system who are young and hitting, Orevlis is on a PED break, Jimenez should get a shot at some point this year, Berroa got a brief call up and probably gets another later, Roden needs more AAA time (just a 549 OPS there so far in 8 games), Riley Tirotta continues to mash at 25 (1.064 OPS in AAA, 1.005 overall this year) and probably gets a shot if/when Turner is traded.

Yeah, you ideally get 1 new regular and 1 new pitcher every year on the roster from the farm. The Jays are doing that with hitters but not pitchers right now. The question is why. Pitching is the big issue with no one under 26 pitching for the team in 2024 yet (26 year olds were Manoah & Eisert). Pearson flopped, Tiedemann should be up but has injury issues non-stop it seems. Trenton Wallace in AA is looking good this year but at 25 he needs to get up soon to have a significant future. Eric Pardinho (23) has been looking good in the pen in AA, but had 1 very bad game in Buffalo (4 runs, 0 outs) to go with 3 good ones so he is on a 'wait and see' but I expect him to be up post-all-star break. Mason Fluharty is in AAA (22) and doing well in the pen (37 IP 3.4 BB/9 9.24 K/9 2.92 ERA) and might get a call-up soon. So there is hope in the pen, now if Tiedemann and a few others could just stay healthy it'd be wonderful.
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#448513) #
Relating Cuas to impersonating the worst pitcher on the team who was just designated for assignment, which accurate play was that? Sounds like whining to me. Consistent dumping of negative frustrations for the rest of the posters to read. Pervasively unpleasant. He could have just said Cuas looks awful but he had to point out that he's awful and that Mayza is awful and that JT is a singles hitter DH and tease about nobody seeing Springers resurgence. Just so much negativity in one post it's too hard to not call him out on the same day Vlad tied a franchise record for RBI and has set himself up nicely for a 100 RBI 30 HR season or better.

In the sameday he posted three times on Mayza, called for the GM or manager to be fired and was whining about Vladdy's baserunning and his apparent desire to leave Toronto. Enough is enough man, if all you can contribute positively is to point out that IKF had a higher OPS then Chapman and want to focus the narrative after a huge win on a throw away spare part like Cuas then you're open game to be criticized.
Dewey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#448514) #
Why must posts be ‘positive’ and ‘pleasant’? This is the internet, dally, where there are the pollyannas and there are the whiners. Not a lot in between (Da Box being a noble exception). Personally, I can’t stand the polyannas, for whom everything is rosy, or potentially rosy. Reminds me of the unfortunate Parson Howarth. Bumper-sticker thinking; probably has a Baby on Board sign in the window, too.
John Northey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#448515) #
Cuas did what he needed to do - eat an inning. He might never throw another for the Jays, he is the 24th guy used on the mound this year after all (23rd real pitcher) and got a shot because 5 guys are on the IL (Romano, Garcia, Manoah, Espino, and Burr) and Swanson forgot how to pitch as did Mayza after being key parts of the pen in 2023. At that stage of the pen you can't expect much beyond 'got a few guys out in a blowout'.

Btw, good news - Soto out today too.
Mike Green - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#448516) #
I remember hearing that Jim Palmer had not given up a grand slam homer in his career, and it got me to thinking- how did he do with the bases loaded, and from there I went off.  So here goes. 

Palmer faced batters 213 times with the bases loaded.  The poor saps hit .196/.230/.234 off him in that situation, good for an OPS+ of 47.  It was by far the best he performed in any situation.  And it was total mastery, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 0 homers, 13 walks and 40 strikeouts, and a .225 BABIP, 12 GIDP and 16 SF.  His K/W of over 3 was the best of any situation.  BABIP, name it.  What's hard about the bases loaded situation?  A pitcher has nowhere to hide.  A walk is a very bad result and a home run is a disaster.  You can't you just come in, and you can't nibble.  Somehow Palmer found that sweet spot over and over again.

Which got me to thinking- how did the other great pitchers of my life do in a bases loaded situation?  Pedro Martinez- .254/.298/.388 good but higher than he did with no one on base (the SFs make this normal), Greg Maddux- stop, another Palmer almost.  Maddux faced 278 batters with the bases loaded and his poor saps hit .226/.227/.317.  A different kind of total mastery- 11 doubles, 1 triple and 3 homers but 5 walks and 53 strikeouts (!).  His K/W of over 10 is more than double what it was in any other situation.  Randy Johnson- not quite Palmer or Maddux but still.  His poor saps hit .226/.266/.335, again better than he did in other situations with a 19/100 W/K in 343 PAs- again his best W/K by quite a bit.    Tom Seaver- .206/.236/.316.  He was a great pitcher, but he was a lot better against his poor saps in that situation than any other.  Are we seeing a pattern?  Roger Clemens is a little better than Pedro .236/.260/.375- again the best W/K of any situation by far.  Came to an exception- Sandy Koufax: batters hit .205/.329/.442 with the bases loaded- more walks and more homers. (I checked and his numbers from 62-66 were good, but were killed by the period before that).  Bob Gibson- I'm going to guess he's in the Palmer mode before I check.  Let's see.  Guessed right- Gibson's poor saps hit .174/.192/.257, no power and struck out 6 times more often than they walked, by far his highest K/W ratio.  Juan Marichal- I'm going to guess like Pedro-nope: .272/.268/.355 (not a typo).  4 walks and 29 strikeouts in 190 PAs.  7/1 K/W was double his typical.  Justin Verlander is an interesting case- 50/9 K/W much better than his averages and only 3 homers in 214 PAs but a .387 BABIP leading to poor numbersAre we seeing a pattern yet?   World-beating K/W and a little less power with more variability on that, and huge variability on BABIP. 

Is it the same with relievers?  Mariano Rivera- you'd think he would be awesome in this situation and...he wasn't (.256/.267/.410).  Goose Gossage- .242/.280/.348 (about the same as with nobody on base; Trevor Hoffman- .189/.220/.260 with a 46/7 K/W- deadly.  Billy Wagner- .189/.239/.256- deadly not with W/K, but 2 XBH in 96 PAs and .194 BABIP.    I'd have to spend more time to theorize about relievers.

Anyways, I have a theory.  Christy Mathewson used to tell pitchers to save some stuff "for the clinches".  It's a little less true now than in the deadball era because of the possibility of a home run, but I do think that the best starting pitchers do save a little bit for the toughest situations and bases loaded is almost invariably one of those situations (it wouldn't be with a 12-0 lead or something).  The ones who really thrived in the situation- Palmer, Maddux and Gibson- didn't throw the hardest, but had exceptional control and  were tough and smart, and could miss bats when they needed to. 

electric carrot - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#448517) #
First time I recall seeing that our top three hitting nearly .300 or above and an average OPS above .800.
92-93 - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#448518) #
The Yankees lineup sucks. Why would you give Judge anything to hit?
greenfrog - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#448521) #
This has been a frequent problem in the last couple of years (pitching unnecessarily in key situations to RC nemeses like Judge, Ohtani, Seager, Mountcastle and Raleigh and getting burned as a result).
John Northey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#448523) #
Sigh. Guess 2 of 4 was all we could hope for. Good that Horwitz continues to get on base, Vlad, Turner, and Springer all getting hits. But what the heck Gausman? Can't blame coaching as it is the same coaches as last year when he was a Cy finalist.
BlueJaysLifer - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#448524) #
Can someone please explain why KK is playing every day? I find it bizarre!
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#448527) #
Can someone please explain why KK is playing every day?

He's not, really (he's started 30 of the last 60 games.) I assume he's in there today because J.Schneider thinks Barger or D.Schneider would be equally helpless against Cole, so he might as well get the better defender out there.
jerjapan - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#448528) #
That’s why!
John Northey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#448529) #
Bases loaded - how did top Jays do?
  • Stieb: 312/333/468 ouch
  • Halladay: 299/301/522 ouch!
  • Henke: 210/252/320 ah, nice
  • Ward: 232/310/415
  • Romano: 143/182/191 - wow
  • Clemens: 236/260/375
Covers the best of the best who ever pitched here, starters and relievers. Many other very good ones were here but these names came to mind first. Romano more because I felt I needed a current Jay.
scottt - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#448530) #
There was no reason to assume that Cole would be great today as he was bad in his last outing.

scottt - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#448531) #
Gausman is basically a 2-pitch pitcher.
He depends on the fastball because they can lay off the splitter even if he has a great one.
It's kinda sad they kept him in there for so long.

uglyone - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#448532) #

The #BlueJays plan to place SP Yusei Kikuchi, C Danny Jansen, RHP Yimi Garcia, DH Justin Turner and OF Kevin Kiermaier on the trade block ahead of the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline, per @BNightengale

— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) June 30, 2024

And just like that our catching glut becomes a longterm hole.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#448533) #
The Blue Jays are not going to get a lot in return for those players, I don’t think. (They will get something, of course.) Vladdy and Bo are the real prizes.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#448534) #
This is speculative, but are Gausman, Romano and Swanson’s struggles this season related to their being rushed into action back in the spring? Gausman has suggested that he might have tried to come back too quickly from his spring training setback.
Sherrystar - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#448535) #
Best news of the season so far. Hopefully this silences the “Jays might do on a run” crew. This dumpster fire can only be fixed by a complete rebuild. That includes the GM and President.
Ducey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#448536) #
Agree Sherry.

Although I dont know about Shapiro. The redevelopment of the stadium in Toronto (without public money), the Dundein complex, an emphasis on development at each level, a higher payroll, and even paying minor league players more are all good things.

The problem seems to be that they dont have good talent evaluation and/or people to do the development.

If Shapiro could hire someone good and hand over the reins, it might work. But maybe that is a naive thought
John Northey - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#448538) #
Gee, wonder how hard that was to figure out for Nightengale. I mean, every last person here has the exact same list - it is the guys who are free agents after this season who have any trade value at all. Now, mix in Bo or Gausman or someone who is under contract for 2025 or longer and you'd have a story.

As to the trade today - Yerry Rodríguez for Josh Mollerus both RHP - Rodriguez is in his age 26 season, has some ML experience (bad experience 59 ERA+ over 31 2/3 IP for Texas) but in AAA has 21 K's in 13 1/3 IP (nice) but 10 BB as well (not nice) - good ol million dollar arm with no control - 151 IP in AAA with 4.8 BB/9 vs 11.6 K/9 - a lottery ticket basically. Mollerus is a 10th round pick from 2023, 24 years old in A+ in the pen 13.3 K/9 vs 5.9 BB/9 so also a lottery ticket but further from the majors. So 2 'who knows' guys neither of which is likely to ever do much.
Sherrystar - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#448539) #
I was just rage posting Ducey. If i put my rational hat on like you, I know that Rogers loves Shapiro. He’s probably not going anywhere.

But don’t we already have the perfect Atkins replacement in Click? Surely Atkins needs to go?

I just can’t watch much more of my favourite team not having any hope for the present or the future.
BlueJaysLifer - Sunday, June 30 2024 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#448540) #
No this is an argument filled with fallacy
Mike Green - Monday, July 01 2024 @ 06:33 AM EDT (#448541) #
Baseball Reference has a Canada Day special Immaculate Grid. Thanks, BBRef. Eh.
Mike Green - Monday, July 01 2024 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#448542) #
I played it and had a rarity score of 9. Someone can do better than that, I'm sure.
Mike Green - Monday, July 01 2024 @ 06:59 AM EDT (#448543) #
My morning newspaper has a retro batting table underneath the MLB standings in the sports section. No OBP, no slugging percentage nor any of the modern synthesis, but just the top 10 hitters by batting average in the American League. #1 at .317 is Luis Rengifo. #2 at .316 is Aaron Judge.

It has ever been the case that if you hit enough home runs, you can overcome striking out 200 times in a season. With 31 homers and 93 strikeouts, Judge is hitting. 250 when the ball is not in play. A BABOP of .250 is good.
scottt - Monday, July 01 2024 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#448544) #
KK is kinda obvious, but it's hard to see much coming back.
Garcia needs to get healthy.
Turner?  Not many team needs DH help.
Kikuchi? Probably, but they still need somebody to pitch in Toronto and there is much in the system.
They can't have 2 or 3 bullpen days per week.
Jansen could fit on several teams but it's hard to switch catchers in the middle of the year.
He's also cooled down quite a bit.

Also, you have to consider the clubhouse effect.
Players don't like to give up when there is still hope.

Apart from KK, I think the prices will be high.

scottt - Monday, July 01 2024 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#448545) #
Wouldn't fouling into an out count as balls not in play?
Mike Green - Monday, July 01 2024 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#448546) #
It's a rough thing. The idea is that on strikeouts and home runs, the defence has little to do with it. It's not that simple, of course- on some strikeouts, the catcher had to make a significant play. On some home runs, the outfielder has a realistic shot at making the catch and sometimes even knocks tge ball over the wall.

On pop-ups and flyballs caught in foul territory, the defence quality regularly plays a significant role.
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