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I think it's easy enough to understand the Texas Rangers basic plan for 2025. We're about to see it for ourselves, up close and personal.

That plan is simply to turn Jakob de Grom and Nathan Eovaldi loose on the opposition. In a short series, you could happily take your chances with that. 

The thing is, you kind of need to make it to the post-season for the plan to work as designed. And while the Yankees have thoughtfully come sliding back to the pack, and the Rangers are somehow just 3.5 games out of the last Wild Card, there's still a bit of a hill to be climbed, a couple of teams that need to be passed.

The Rangers' problem this year is not a new one. There's an enormous difference in how well they play at home in the Texas heat, and how well they play on the road. They only moved into Globe Life Field in 2020, and it's too soon to really come to any conclusions about the park's effect on the game (I'd want them to get to about 1,000 games there, and they've just passed 400.) While their previous home, the Ballpark in Arlington, was a notorious hitter's heaven, Globe Life has, so far, had a fairly neutral effect on offense (in fact, all of the really extreme parks these days are in the Other League, with the exception of the pitcher's paradise in Seattle.)

But still, something weird is going on. Coming into this season, the Rangers had played .508 ball (180-174) at Globe Life, and just .390 (138-216) on the road. As Home-Road splits go, that's freaking enormous. A difference in winning percentage of .119 (there was some Excel rounding in the previous figures!) is huge - only the Colorado Rockies, proud owners of the largest Home-Road split in the history of the universe, can top that.

And the Rangers are doing it again this year. Let's rank the AL teams by the difference in their performance at Home and on the Road. Teams normally win more often at home than on the road (unless they've been forced into playing in a minor league park by an Owner with a Plan), and the normal historical difference is about .80 - the home team plays .540 ball, the road team plays .460 ball.
                   HOME                ROAD        
Team    W  L  PCT        W    L  PCT    DIFF
                                    
A's    24  36  .400        30  33  .476    -.076
Cleveland    31  28  .525        32  29  .525     .001
Kansas City    30  29  .508        30  32  .484     .025
Tampa Bay    32  30  .516        27  33  .450     .066
Houston    37  25  .597        31  28  .525     .071
Los Angeles    33  30  .524        26  32  .448     .076
Detroit    39  24  .619        32  28  .533     .086
Baltimore    30  30  .500        25  36  .410     .090
Seattle    37  25  .597        30  30  .500     .097
Chicago    26  36  .419        18  41  .305     .114
New York    37  25  .597        27  32  .458     .139
Minnesota    32  26  .552        25  38  .397     .155
Toronto    40  20  .667        31  31  .500     .167
Texas    37  26  .587        24  35  .407     .181
Boston    39  22  .639        27  34  .443     .197

Only the Red Sox - who actually play in the league's weirdest ballpark - have a bigger Home-Road split than the Rangers. And while the Blue Jays are indeed next on the list for biggest Home-road splits, I think the Jays' situation is completely different. After all, only three teams in the AL have a better road record than the Blue Jays. 

Park effects over a single season can be extremely random - 80 games or less is a very, very Small Sample. It's about as meaningful as a week's worth of Plate Appearances. But in 2025, Globe Life has played like one of the best pitcher's parks in the game. Only T-Mobile in Seattle (naturally) has seen a bigger decline in Runs Scored and Allowed in a team's home games. Well, that's how it is at T-Mobile, the Mariners have been there for a quarter century, they've played 2,000 games there. But Globe Life, in its brief history, had so far played as a neutral park, with a tiny edge to the offense. The Rangers had actually scored and allowed (barely) more runs at home than on the road. But not this year. And especially not when it comes to run prevention.

Here is everybody ranked by how much offense they lose when they're at home.

RUNS SCORED PER GAME            
Team    HOME    ROAD    DIFF
            
Seattle        4.113    4.983    -.870
Kansas City    3.407    4.113    -.706
Texas          3.857    4.271    -.414
Houston        4.145    4.542    -.397
A's            4.383    4.460    -.077
Cleveland    4.000    4.049    -.049
Tampa Bay    4.548    4.400     .148
New York    5.145    4.966     .179
Los Angeles    4.508    4.328     .180
Chicago    3.935    3.695     .241
Minnesota    4.345    4.000     .345
Detroit    4.968    4.583     .385
Boston    5.262    4.803     .459
Toronto    5.133    4.565     .569
Baltimore    4.983    3.525    1.459


The Rangers are scoring more runs when they hit the road. Their offense hasn't pickled up as much as those of the Mariners or Royals, but those teams do play in the best pitcher's parks left in the league. 

Unfortunately for the Rangers, something similar, but on steroids, has befallen their pitchers. Here is everybody ranked by how many more runs they're giving up in the road games.

RUNS ALLOWED PER GAME            
Team    HOME    ROAD    DIFF
            
Texas    3.016    4.203    1.188
Seattle    3.887    4.633     .746
New York    3.952    4.695     .743
Boston    4.016    4.525     .508
Toronto    4.233    4.694     .460
Tampa Bay    4.032    4.217     .184
Chicago    4.355    4.508     .154
Los Angeles    4.905    5.017     .112
Kansas City    3.864    3.903     .039
Detroit    4.159    4.150  -.009
Baltimore    5.017    4.902    -.115
Cleveland    4.356    4.066    -.290
Houston    4.129    3.797    -.332
Minnesota    4.638    4.270    -.368
A's    5.717    4.794    -.923


Well. Any sensible and rational observer, with a gift for spotting the Bleeding Obvious, would confidently assert that the Texas Rangers are a bad road team because their pitchers go into the tank when they leave the comforts of home behind. 

I don't want to say that. I know no better way to guarantee that de Grom, Eovaldi, and their friends will completely shut down the Jays' offense. I know the awesome power I wield, I strive to use it for good.

But I don't know what to tell you!

I can point out that the Rangers road issues don't have a whole lot to do with the three starters we'll see this weekend - they've combined to post a 2.64 ERA at home, and 3.07 on the road. Granted, much of that has happened because Nathan Eovaldi has been ridiculous, awesome, absolutely unhittable when he gets out of Texas (7-3, 1.26) but de Grom and Corbin have both been good enough on the road.

Matchups

Fri 15 Aug - de Grom (10-5, 2.86) vs Bassitt (11-6, 4.17)
Sat 16 Aug - Corbin (6-8, 4.00) vs Lauer (7-2, 2.82)
Sun 17 Aug - Eovaldi (10-3, 1.71) vs Berrios (9-4, 2.74)
Texas at Toronto, August 15-17 | 13 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
vw_fan17 - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#466256) #
The Rangers are losing a significant amount of offense when they hit the road - not as much as the Mariners or Royals, but those teams do play in the best pitcher's parks left in the league.

Am I reading the tables wrong? Texas scores more runs on the road (4.271 vs 3.857) at home? Aren't they GAINING 0.414 runs per game on road, just that their starters are giving up 1.1888 more runs per game?
Magpie - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#466257) #
Am I reading the tables wrong?

Probably not. Just made some fixes. I can never seem to proof these things properly until they're actually up and visible.
John Northey - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#466258) #
This will be an interesting series - a middle of the road team instead of a playoff bound one (ala SFG/Yankees/Detroit/Cubs/LAD) or a team that looks like a AAA team (Colorado/Baltimore). This is like the KC series. A team struggling to sneak into the playoffs, likely to be slaughtered if they get there but youneverknow.

Looking at their lineup - Joc Pederson is one who many here wanted the Jays to sign, thankfully Atkins didn't - $21 mil for a 64 OPS+ DH. Yikes. At 1B Jake Burger with a 95 OPS+ an ugly but not super-ugly result. Their catcher Jonah Heim is at 74 (84 lifetime so not a shocker). But ex-Jay Marcus Semien having an 88 is a surprise after 3 solid years there (knew those final years of his contract could be a disaster for Texas - not at that point yet, but any more regression and it will be, 3 years left at $26 mil per).
Nigel - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#466259) #
In case you were wondering, there is in fact a batting eye/backdrop problem in Seattle:) It sure makes player evaluation a problem for their franchise.
uglyone - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#466260) #
Are home/road splits getting more severe in general?

Is every team cheating at home now?
Magpie - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#466263) #
Are home/road splits getting more severe in general?

Well, this year AL teams are playing .550 ball at home, which is slightly higher than the historical .540 level. But during the first four years of this very decade, AL teams played just .522 ball at home.

It will vary from year to year - it's one of those things where any single season is a Small Sample.
Magpie - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#466264) #
It sure makes player evaluation a problem for their franchise.

That's always the problem with any extreme park, from old Fenway to the Astrodome to Coors. Evaluating your own talent, and simply figuring out what you need to do to win. Lots of teams in those types of parks have struggled.

Of course, the Yankees used to play in one of the most extreme pitcher's parks of all time, and they cracked the code for their park almost instantly (LH pitchers and LH power, which works pretty well in most places, come to think of it.)
ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#466265) #
The Man in White is doing his job for the Jays this year.
Nigel - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#466266) #
I totally agree Magpie that park distortions are always a problem but many of them are unique park features that let you tailor your club to the attributes of the park. The Red Sox can load up on RH sluggers and LH contact hitters that go the other way/pound the Green Monster and go from there. In Seattle's case, its a batting eye problem that is distorting things. For example, do you want to pay Julio Rodriguez to be the 91 wRC+ that he is at home or the mega superstar 148 wRC+ that he is on the road. And if you pay him at the upper end are you getting the kind of value from that contract when he simply can't hit at home? Its tricky.
scottt - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#466267) #
44000 men in white every home games.
scottt - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#466268) #
The biggest distortion is the prospects playing in the PCL.
dalimon5 - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#466272) #
Has anybody mentioned that Addison Barger leads the AL in RBI since Canada Day? He's been instrumental to this teams turn around as much as George. His emergence has created presence which Santander was supposed to provide.
vw_fan17 - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#466273) #
If the Red Sox load up on hitters who can bang 'em off the Green Monster, are they sacrificing too much when not at home? Myles Straw could probably do pretty well there with his warning track power..
Texas at Toronto, August 15-17 | 13 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.