Bring it home.
Matchup!
Gausman (10-11, 3.59) vs Miller (4-6, 5.68)
So Springer-Lukes-Vlad-Kirk-Varsho-Clement-Barger-IKF-Gimenez is the lineup (if it ain't broke, don't fix it).
Most HR in a single season playoff - 10 by Randy Arozarena in 2020 (20 games). Vlad's 5 (in 8 games) is nice but a long way to go to catch the overall record. Stanton in 2020 had 7 in 7 games for most in sub 10 games. Another of note: Juan Gonzalez hit 5 in just 4 games in 1996 for Texas.
Vlad's next HR in the playoffs will tie him with Bautista and Carter for most Jays HR in the playoffs lifetime. Hard to believe given Vlad had 0 before this year in the playoffs.
Most HR in a single season playoff - 10 by Randy Arozarena in 2020 (20 games). Vlad's 5 (in 8 games) is nice but a long way to go to catch the overall record. Stanton in 2020 had 7 in 7 games for most in sub 10 games. Another of note: Juan Gonzalez hit 5 in just 4 games in 1996 for Texas.
Vlad's next HR in the playoffs will tie him with Bautista and Carter for most Jays HR in the playoffs lifetime. Hard to believe given Vlad had 0 before this year in the playoffs.
It's been really incredible to see Vlad take off this post season. After his opening playoffs home run against the Yankees it just felt different. I remember even after he hit that home run he didn't over-celebrate it. He watched it then walked around the bases like a man on a bigger mission than getting a monkey off his back. Tremendous.
aw crap first time these playoffs the butterflies are attacking me early.
Pretty annoying that Miller has basically added 2 MPH on his stuff for this series.
gaus has no command at all. pull it together big guy.
he reeled it in nicely. good stuff.
not gonna lie hitting Julio-Cal 1-2 is probably the right move but suddenly their lineup feels a lot thinner.
not gonna lie hitting Julio-Cal 1-2 is probably the right move but suddenly their lineup feels a lot thinner.
If Gausman gets friendly calls he's going to be very hard to hit.
The Jays have been getting calls all postseason. So much for the biased American umpires.
SN worked on my phone in France this week when I wasn't on wifi.
The Mariners infield D has been very solid so far.
The Mariners infield D has been very solid so far.
by my count we've swung at 9 clear balls already.
Miller carved up Varsho, Clement and Barger that inning. All three batters hacked at pitches well out of the strike zone during their PA.
Mariners came to play. They're not bailing gausman out at all.
Some pretty bad luck there. Gimenez scorched that and anywhere else, Jays are setup for big inning.
Nice play by Naylor (right as I tuned in here from Ireland, don’t ask how) but IKF’s instincts on the bases do make me scratch my head a little. Nobody out, line drive… it gets through the infield even if your first move on a liner is back to the base, you probably still get to third at least. Seemed like he froze for a split second of indecision and it doomed him, though he might not have been able to get back at all regardless.
Have to grind, keep it close, and find an opportunity to score later in the game.
a lot of hard contact off Miller since falefa.
Lukes is unreal. So good.
Really need a hit from Kirk here.
Really need a hit from Kirk here.
ok varsho you're allowed to swing at high heat out of the zone or junk in the dirt....but not both.
Took advantage of Clement’s aggressiveness with that low splitter to start the PA.
Yeah - that's going to be hard to come back from. Sometimes it just isn't your night. Lots of time though.
Can't go the whole game with Seattle getting all the breaks.
Bases loaded nobody out… hitting a ball a total of six inches in fair territory… these are the moments you pull your hair out over.
Was gonna say Raleigh looks really clunky behind the plate catching certain pitches (he really does) but he was damn quick to recognize that double play on a platter. Keep it close, fight for another opportunity.
Was gonna say Raleigh looks really clunky behind the plate catching certain pitches (he really does) but he was damn quick to recognize that double play on a platter. Keep it close, fight for another opportunity.
Obviously you don’t think of it in the moment, but Clement would’ve been better off just kicking or stepping on the ball as he went toward first. What a killer pair of at bats.
Falefa's glove ain't all that.
Thank god his bat is unstoppable atm.
Thank god his bat is unstoppable atm.
The M’s haven’t blown any glorious opportunities the way the Blue Jays have the last couple of innings, but they’ve had a runner on in each of the first, second and fourth innings and been unable to score those runners.
this is the right call imo. Miller has been crazy lucky.
unfortunately i don;t like the bottom of our order's chances against Brash.
unfortunately i don;t like the bottom of our order's chances against Brash.
IKF having the kind of game that should make the manager want to take him out. Baserunning mistake. Fielding mistake. badly failed bunting situation. these are the things he's supposed to be good at.
Hope the Jays don't hook Gausman too early. He hasn't been at his best but I trust him way more than our relievers.
beauty.
keep him in, schneider. don't overthink it.
keep him in, schneider. don't overthink it.
With a high of 22 tomorrow, let the Summer of George continue!
They are really eager to bring in a guy who has never pitched out of the pen, and hasn't pitched in a month. Make em pay.
They are really eager to bring in a guy who has never pitched out of the pen, and hasn't pitched in a month. Make em pay.
Love the sequence from Gausman to Raleigh (sorry if I’m misspelling but it’s like 1am here and my bunk mate snores like a sawdust factory). Stuck with the low and away splitters, just off the plate where even a power behemoth like the Big Dumper couldn’t flick it out the other way. With a nice but too high fastball above the zone just to disrupt Raleigh’s timing on the split.
Buckle in, my baseball friends. Smoke or toke em if you got em.
Buckle in, my baseball friends. Smoke or toke em if you got em.
now THAT is why you force the defense to make the play.
lol what a terrible throw.
lol what a terrible throw.
Interesting. I would have thought that that was a place to use Schneider to PH.
Schneider is a new man. Max has CHANGED him.
gaus looks to be on fumes but he just keeps letting him go.
i love it.
gaus looks to be on fumes but he just keeps letting him go.
i love it.
That was a really gutsy effort by Gausman. I didn't think he had much stuff or control today but he really battled.
Varland again with the potential go-ahead run at the plate — Terrifying, but hopefully he’s gotten the long balls out of his system.
Good job, Varland. And wow did the home plate ump badly miss another call.
So is it Hoffman or Little for Cal next time through.
A game of inches and the inches aren't going the Jays way tonight. Hope Springer is OK. That looked awful. Oh no, they're bringing in Little.
Let’s just say I have… little faith this will go well…
Thank you thank you. Yes I’m also terrified, don’t try the veal.
Thank you thank you. Yes I’m also terrified, don’t try the veal.
Can't go the whole game with Seattle getting all the breaks.
I stand corrected...
I stand corrected...
They went to Hoffman last night in same situation which was great. Tonight, why not again?
Why?
Schneider is managing around Josh Naylor at the expense of using his best relievers.
Schneider is managing around Josh Naylor at the expense of using his best relievers.
Can we never ever see Little again in a tight situation? He doesn’t have it right now and even when he does, he attacks the strikezone as though he’s blindfolded. Enough with this guy.
Little was the worst decision. Control risk, and DISADVANTAGE
In turning around Raleigh & Polanco. Prime WTF Schneider.
In turning around Raleigh & Polanco. Prime WTF Schneider.
Sorry but if you haven't learned not to use Little in high leverage situations (shouldn't have since May) then you deserve to lose the game...
I wish anybody trusted me as much as Schneider trusts Little.
Can we just leave Little in Seattle? Give him the wrong coordinates for the charter home?
Gerry posted something a few days ago about how Fluharty had overtaken Little on the depth chart.
I wish that was true.
I wish that was true.
This Little mistake might end up being a big one…
Not funny? Yeah I didn’t think so either. Seriously though WTF bringing in Little nobody on the freaking planet thought that was a good idea except Mariners fans.
Not funny? Yeah I didn’t think so either. Seriously though WTF bringing in Little nobody on the freaking planet thought that was a good idea except Mariners fans.
He literally managed through the same scenario with a big lead yesterday with Dominguez and Hoffman and it worked out well.
Why use your best pitcher in the toughest spot in the game when you can use your worst?
That’s a doozy.
A real… real… +}#*}{+{££££ doozy…
A real… real… +}#*}{+{££££ doozy…
Just confounding and heartbreaking—so many chances not cashed in followed by a managerial and bullpen collapse. Maybe the bats have a miracle in them to wipe this bad taste away?
Looks like the Jays are about to have three losses. Little can be blamed for two of them.
But seriously. An insane decision we all saw before the badness even happened. Infuriating. It’s 2am here and I can’t even scream… I’d wake up the jerk bunk mate who snores 15 hours a day and thus hasn’t allowed me a good night of sleep since I crossed over the ocean…
What? No you’re upset!
What? No you’re upset!
Wear that one, John. Tough to win 2-1…. And yet… wear it.
They did what they had to do - win 2 out of 3 in a tough ballpark to get the series back home to give themselves a chance. Pray for Springer's knee.
It does seem crazy that up 1 facing the 2-3-4 danger part of the lineup in the bottom of the 8th you don't bring in your best pitcher. If our closer was our best pitcher, you bring him in. When our closer arguably isn't our best pitcher, bring in your best reliever. Now we still might have lost, but better to give your chance the biggest chance instead of the littlest. I mean I don't think Little is terrible, but he's not our best reliever.
I think he thought he had already used his best pitcher.
I think all this cascades from the early hook. Just let these starters finish their innings. The relievers are not good with inherited runners anyway. Baffled as to why Little gets the top of that lineup
I hate to say this... but Little made sense to me in the moment. A one-run lead in the eighth with the power hitters coming up? The reliever who is least likely to allow a home run - and yes, that's Brendon Little - seems logical.
Yeah the home run was somewhat unlikely. Little had only given up 2 all year.
But he walks everyone. After the hr it was only tied, but by the time he left there were two walks on base.
But he walks everyone. After the hr it was only tied, but by the time he left there were two walks on base.
Least likely to allow a home run sure… but I tend to prefer guys who are even less likely to allow baserunners, which enables random wacky stuff to happen (or just plain bombs over the fence, both are equally brutal).
Overall… this is a rough kick to the gut but I agree, being down 3-2 at this point after those first two games… we would’ve taken it earlier this week. The season is still alive, we have something to gnaw our pointy teeth about and an easy target or two to do so. Both games are at home… time to break the Seattle-owning-us-at-the-SkyDome, right?
Sigh. I need a dozen pillows to stuff out that godawful snoring.
Overall… this is a rough kick to the gut but I agree, being down 3-2 at this point after those first two games… we would’ve taken it earlier this week. The season is still alive, we have something to gnaw our pointy teeth about and an easy target or two to do so. Both games are at home… time to break the Seattle-owning-us-at-the-SkyDome, right?
Sigh. I need a dozen pillows to stuff out that godawful snoring.
"Little made sense to me in the moment."
I think Little was a defensible choice as Magpie alludes. But I give Eephus credit for complaining about the choice before the results came in. For me those are the only reliever complaints that are legit.
I think Little was a defensible choice as Magpie alludes. But I give Eephus credit for complaining about the choice before the results came in. For me those are the only reliever complaints that are legit.
Well, once he'd given up the homer I would have taken him out if they hadn't changed the rules.
It’s the top of the order. You have to go to either the closer or Varland/relief ace. I didn’t think that was little an hour ago and I don’t think it is now.
I've been saying for months now that Little is our very own Mitch Williams.
And now he's had his Mitch Williams Moment.
And now he's had his Mitch Williams Moment.
They are saying on TV that RHB have hit .500 off Little, I believe it's in the post season.
HR allowed per 9ip:
Little 0.26
Seranthony 0.72
Fisher 0.72
Varland 0.74
Yariel 0.99
Fluharty 1.03
Hoffman 1.99
Rank of all 138 qualifed RP in MLB
1. Morejon 0.24
2. Whitlock 0.25
3. Little 0.26
4. Ashcraft 0.28
5. Ferguson 0.28
134. Bellozo 1.92
135. Rutledge 1.96
136. Chivilli 1.99
137. Hoffman 1.99
138. Alcala 2.13
there's a reason Little was in for Hoffman against their power bats in a one run game.
Little 0.26
Seranthony 0.72
Fisher 0.72
Varland 0.74
Yariel 0.99
Fluharty 1.03
Hoffman 1.99
Rank of all 138 qualifed RP in MLB
1. Morejon 0.24
2. Whitlock 0.25
3. Little 0.26
4. Ashcraft 0.28
5. Ferguson 0.28
134. Bellozo 1.92
135. Rutledge 1.96
136. Chivilli 1.99
137. Hoffman 1.99
138. Alcala 2.13
there's a reason Little was in for Hoffman against their power bats in a one run game.
Well, according to Schneider it's also that, "We want that part of the lineup to see different guys."
So why did you use Dominguez and Hoffman with a six-run lead yesterday?
So why did you use Dominguez and Hoffman with a six-run lead yesterday?
The solo home run I can live with. The two walks, which are definitely part of Little’s m.o., are the things you can’t live with in the bottom eighth on the road. Completely inexplicable decision from Schneider.
Hoffman is used with a 6 run lead cuz HRs don't hurt as much.
Well, there was also the fact that Gausman comes out in the 6th instead of trying to get through 7.
Schneider has done this the entire time he’s managed so it’s not like it’s a shock. I just am never going to like pulling a starter that’s been on all night. This isn’t the Dodgers or another elite pen we have here.
Hindsight is 20-20 and Schneider has done a lot with what he’s been handed this year. On Reddit people are acting like this is the worst decision in Jays history which is too hyperbolic.
Did they announce Yesavage for Sunday? What about using Bassit as an opener? Schneider says he used little to make the top face arms they haven’t seen.
Schneider has done this the entire time he’s managed so it’s not like it’s a shock. I just am never going to like pulling a starter that’s been on all night. This isn’t the Dodgers or another elite pen we have here.
Hindsight is 20-20 and Schneider has done a lot with what he’s been handed this year. On Reddit people are acting like this is the worst decision in Jays history which is too hyperbolic.
Did they announce Yesavage for Sunday? What about using Bassit as an opener? Schneider says he used little to make the top face arms they haven’t seen.
I’m not exactly thrilled about being proven right before the bad thing happened (it’s like betting correctly on where the meteor is gonna hit the Earth. Hooray?)
While I disagree with Magpie’s Mitch Williams 1993 comp (didn’t Williams actually have a few helpful moments for the Phillies in that run?) I do think that once he’d given up the dinger, if not for the three batter rule he’d have been out of the game quicker than a… a… I dunno it’s 3am here insert your own joke. Help me out, please!
If Schneider had been able to yank him right away, instead of helplessly watch as he walked the next two batters with nobody out… well I’m not really sure what would’ve happened or what we would think. Bottom 8th on the road, inheriting two runners with nobody out in a tie game… that’s where I really blame Little because that’s just an unreasonable situation to escape from. Not impossible, but definitely unreasonable to expect.
Bringing in Little still remains an awful decision and a crucially bad one should the Jays not win the next two games. I’m sorry but that’s just how I see it.
While I disagree with Magpie’s Mitch Williams 1993 comp (didn’t Williams actually have a few helpful moments for the Phillies in that run?) I do think that once he’d given up the dinger, if not for the three batter rule he’d have been out of the game quicker than a… a… I dunno it’s 3am here insert your own joke. Help me out, please!
If Schneider had been able to yank him right away, instead of helplessly watch as he walked the next two batters with nobody out… well I’m not really sure what would’ve happened or what we would think. Bottom 8th on the road, inheriting two runners with nobody out in a tie game… that’s where I really blame Little because that’s just an unreasonable situation to escape from. Not impossible, but definitely unreasonable to expect.
Bringing in Little still remains an awful decision and a crucially bad one should the Jays not win the next two games. I’m sorry but that’s just how I see it.
I suppose I was thinking rather like Schneider - Cal Raleigh was coming up and I was worried about the solo homer that would tie the game. I didn't consider the big inning that would lose it.
And baseball has a sense of humour, I got both!
And baseball has a sense of humour, I got both!
My heart sank when I saw Little come in and I knew something bad was going to happen. Just a brutal decision that might cost the Jays the series.
If HR were only issue, then I'd get Little but he's been bad for a long time. His Whip in the second half was 1.54. We've watched him pitch and it's been brutal for months. What makes it even crazier is that Raleigh and Polanco are both significantly better against lefties. It feels like the whole thing was about Naylor.
Little Sept/Oct: 9.2ip, 1.21lvg (#3), 2.79era, 2.93fip, 3.73xfip
Playoffs b4 tonight: 3.0ip, 0.76lvg (#3), 3.00era, 3.80fip, 6.89xfip
Playoffs b4 tonight: 3.0ip, 0.76lvg (#3), 3.00era, 3.80fip, 6.89xfip
Glevin, I agree.
I said it an hour ago and it's like Schneider saw Little versus Naylor as a huge advantage that outweighed all other considerations.
It's as if it overrode Little's poor form recently, the fact that he'd be facing two right-handed batters with the numbers Gerry posted. It overrode that if Dominguez got two batters, he could pitch around Naylor. It overrode that Raleigh is one of the best hitters in baseball and you, presumably, want your best reliever to face him, not the one who has been very mediocre recently.
I said it an hour ago and it's like Schneider saw Little versus Naylor as a huge advantage that outweighed all other considerations.
It's as if it overrode Little's poor form recently, the fact that he'd be facing two right-handed batters with the numbers Gerry posted. It overrode that if Dominguez got two batters, he could pitch around Naylor. It overrode that Raleigh is one of the best hitters in baseball and you, presumably, want your best reliever to face him, not the one who has been very mediocre recently.
In Little's last 21 innings, he has given up 19 hits, 16 BB, and 13 ER. Over the last 7 weeks, righties are hitting.500 against him. There are dozens of these stats. FIP over a handful of innings is pretty useless. He's been objectively awful for quite some time.
Did you just use 21 innings as a meaningful sample size in the very same sentence you mocked a 12.2ip sample size as meaningless?
To interject some better news in this excellent discussion, Springer’s x-ray is negative.
Win two games at home. Put it all behind you. Believe in yourselves.
Easy, right? Right? The lack of sleep must be distorting my brainwaves… just roll with this for now…
Easy, right? Right? The lack of sleep must be distorting my brainwaves… just roll with this for now…
Upon reflection... bases loaded, no one out? It would have been nice to get some runs there.
I think the scariest part in all of this is that if the Jays are leading by 1 in the 8th inning in Game 6, and Schneider feels like he wants a lefty in the game, then Little is going to get the ball again. There's no doubt in my mind. I hope the Jays bats stream roll the Mariners pitching in game 6 and hopefully 7 because 1 run games are not going to be advantageous to them. Schneider, as bad as he is with managing a bullpen, doesn't have the horses to play the bullpen game with the Mariners.
It still makes me laugh that people still actually call Schneider bad at managing after what he's done with this bullpen and team overall.
Hoffman was used with a 6-run lead because Schneider was managing scared, as he has been wont to do all season. It’s pretty obvious that Hoffman was coming into a one-run game in the 9th tonight.
I don’t understand why they announced Yesavage as the Game 6 starter before tonight’s game. I would have left him available as a super-high leverage option in Game 5, but they didn’t because they had full confidence in their bullpen.
As frustrating and nerve wracking as tonight was, I just want to point out how thoroughly entertaining the ballgame was.
I don’t understand why they announced Yesavage as the Game 6 starter before tonight’s game. I would have left him available as a super-high leverage option in Game 5, but they didn’t because they had full confidence in their bullpen.
As frustrating and nerve wracking as tonight was, I just want to point out how thoroughly entertaining the ballgame was.
Yes it's because the manager of our surprise ALCS team is scared and stupid, not because Hoffman has been terrible all year.
I can think John Schneider is a good manager (in considering all of the job duties of a manager) who made a terrible decision at the most crucial time.
Caleb Joseph put it nicely, who can you live with losing this game? If it's Dominguez who gave it up all by himself, that sucks, but he's clearly part of the core set of relievers you trust. I would have been disappointed, but because they lost the game.
Instead, it feels like the Jays just handed this game to Seattle by losing with their lesser weapons.
Caleb Joseph put it nicely, who can you live with losing this game? If it's Dominguez who gave it up all by himself, that sucks, but he's clearly part of the core set of relievers you trust. I would have been disappointed, but because they lost the game.
Instead, it feels like the Jays just handed this game to Seattle by losing with their lesser weapons.
has Hoffman been used in even one high leverage situation these playoffs?
Little should never have been used in such a high leverage situation but Schneider was always going to go there. It is what it is.
If Springer can go then I actually feel pretty good about winning the series. But for the pen implosion, I think the Jays pretty handily outplayed the Mariners the last three games. Even today.
If Springer can go then I actually feel pretty good about winning the series. But for the pen implosion, I think the Jays pretty handily outplayed the Mariners the last three games. Even today.
Well, the closest game they have played was a two-run loss to Seattle, in which he pitched.
Their closest win was a three run victory over the Yankees and he pitched more than an inning.
I'm not sure how much clearly Schneider could demonstrate he trusts Hoffman at the back-end of close games.
Their closest win was a three run victory over the Yankees and he pitched more than an inning.
I'm not sure how much clearly Schneider could demonstrate he trusts Hoffman at the back-end of close games.
I agree with Nigel. If Springer is good to go, then I actually like the Jays chances of winning this series, but if the games are close, then that's where some of my skepticism creeps in.
In that "close" game vs the yankees, 7 relievers were used while the game was within 3 runs, and hoffman was the 8th and only reliever to pitch with a 4 run lead, and promptly gave up 2 hits a walk and a run.
Schneider doesn't use Hoffman like a relief ace. If that's what you are arguing, we agree.
The closest thing they have had to a save is the ninth inning of a home game they were down by two, and he pitched that. I'm not sure how you can conclude he doesn't trust him.
If there's a save opportunity on Sunday, I feel very confident he'll get it.
The closest thing they have had to a save is the ninth inning of a home game they were down by two, and he pitched that. I'm not sure how you can conclude he doesn't trust him.
If there's a save opportunity on Sunday, I feel very confident he'll get it.
Ugly - Hoffman has been CONSIDERABLY better than Little for a ~month now. He has given up just 2 runs in his last ~14 outings. Yes, some of those outings had walks surrendered - but even those are nowhere near Little's issue with walks and losing the strike-zone.
There is zero excuse for this. The red dumbo went with the sketchiest reliever in the entire bullpen. A guy who hasn't thrown a strike in ~2 months. Hitters have clearly figured out that you just sit middle-middle and don't swing otherwise, because he WILL walk you.
There is zero excuse for this. The red dumbo went with the sketchiest reliever in the entire bullpen. A guy who hasn't thrown a strike in ~2 months. Hitters have clearly figured out that you just sit middle-middle and don't swing otherwise, because he WILL walk you.
Agree if Springer is healthy, Jays are still in a good spot. Need the dominant Yesavage to show up. Schneider has managed this way all year. He acts as if his relievers are way better than they are. It's so odd because I loved seeing Hoffman facing heart of lineup yeatrday even if it was the 8th. Thats the way to do it and Schneider hasn't really done that all year. Just so crazy he did it in a 7-2 game and not a 2-1 game.
Sept/Oct
Hoffman: 10.2ip, 1.37lvg, 17.8k%, 15.6b%, 0.84era, 5.10fip, 5.76xfip
Little: 9.2ip, 1.21lvg, 25.0k%, 15.0b%, 2.79era, 2.93fip, 3.73xfip
Hoffman: 10.2ip, 1.37lvg, 17.8k%, 15.6b%, 0.84era, 5.10fip, 5.76xfip
Little: 9.2ip, 1.21lvg, 25.0k%, 15.0b%, 2.79era, 2.93fip, 3.73xfip
Why is the debate between Little or Hoffman? Hoffman has looked better in the playoffs, but the three guys who have been bad the last couple of months are Little, Hoffman and Rodriguez. Based on merit, Fisher or Dominguez were the choice but Schneider was always going to go with Little and Hoffman in the 9th. So you have to just live with it. Schneider has had an absolute mountain of head scratching (and in many cases hard to justify) decisions work out this year. You can’t expect every single one to go your way.
Because Hoffman is probably their best reliever when he's throwing his good stuff. Dominguez, like most Jays relievers has been hidden from opponents that would give them trouble (in his example, lefties). The same way Little throws a lot of 0.1 and 0.2 innings. Hoffman is not treated like that.
Just curious uglyone - let’s pretend Little cruises through the 8th inning. Who do you think was coming in to pitch the 9th?
They may not use Hoffman that way but he’s been crushed by LHH all year. They’ve slugged .500 against him.
As much as I think Little was a mistake to bring in, the real reason they lost this very winnable game wasn't the pitching, it was the failure to convert on the offensive chances.
For the first 7.5 innings of this game Toronto looked like a much, much better team with better PA, betting hitting, and better pitching (and some help from the Umpire on Balls/Strikes for Gausman). But a lot of the luck seemed to go Seattle's way and the line drive double play was bad, and the bases loaded 0 outs end up with 0 runs was really bad. Also, Seattle feeling fine waling Vlad and mostly not punished showed how much we miss Bo being in the lineup.
Still if someone said we'd win 2/3 in Seattle this series, I think we'd all feel pretty good about our chances, and we still have good chances to win the series.
If all games are 50/50 the Jays would have 25% chance, but they are at home and that should count for something. Also, the broadcast noted that in 7 game series that were tied 2-2 the team that won game 5 have won 69% of the series, which suggests less than the 50/50 odds would suggest (which is surprising because historically you might expect the team that wins game 5 to be the "better" team, but also maybe the home team wins game 5 more, and the team at home for game 6 and 7 has that advantage and also might be the better team). So the Jays are probably somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 chance of winning the series, which is better than it was after game 2.
It is also a little like the end of the regular season when the Jays just needed to win out at home to keep the division ahead of the Yankees. We can certainly succeed again with that.
For the first 7.5 innings of this game Toronto looked like a much, much better team with better PA, betting hitting, and better pitching (and some help from the Umpire on Balls/Strikes for Gausman). But a lot of the luck seemed to go Seattle's way and the line drive double play was bad, and the bases loaded 0 outs end up with 0 runs was really bad. Also, Seattle feeling fine waling Vlad and mostly not punished showed how much we miss Bo being in the lineup.
Still if someone said we'd win 2/3 in Seattle this series, I think we'd all feel pretty good about our chances, and we still have good chances to win the series.
If all games are 50/50 the Jays would have 25% chance, but they are at home and that should count for something. Also, the broadcast noted that in 7 game series that were tied 2-2 the team that won game 5 have won 69% of the series, which suggests less than the 50/50 odds would suggest (which is surprising because historically you might expect the team that wins game 5 to be the "better" team, but also maybe the home team wins game 5 more, and the team at home for game 6 and 7 has that advantage and also might be the better team). So the Jays are probably somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 chance of winning the series, which is better than it was after game 2.
It is also a little like the end of the regular season when the Jays just needed to win out at home to keep the division ahead of the Yankees. We can certainly succeed again with that.
Some tone deaf posters in here. Here's a fact...World Series teams win games using their bullpen all the time when their offense can't convert. Using the offense as an excuse to defend the bullpen implosions loser mentality. It's no different than saying "player X went 2-4 but got picked off the bases in a critical moment to cost the game but we should really be blaming player B or player C who went 0-4." If you think you have to outslug tour opponents every game then you haven't been following the dynamic of this series and are probably believing the Jays are capable of scoring 10 runs every game which is not the norm...for any playoff team.
Ugly has gone on his cherry-picked numbers rant against Hoffman pretty much since June. Doesn't matter how good or different Hoffman pitches when he has velocity vs when he loses velocity (usually from overwork)... Ugly will argue Hoffman is terrible even if he doesn't realize he's advocating for Little in doing so. Little won't survive the roster cuts after this season and his awful end to his season.
We shall see if maybe knows more than everyone else but I'll wager that everyone including the manager will show in their decisions that Little is done and not to be used or trusted because the numbers when contextualized provide a very clear message: he never should be put in the highest leverage pitching moment against LHH switches to the right side.
Jays deserves to win that and the manager deserves to get hung with the loss. Schneider has proven himself a good manager. That was as bone-headed a move you will see. Wilson will pitch around Vlad and the offense will be low scoring again...don't pretend that this offense should be scoring more runs against guys like Castillo, Gilbert and Kirby. They're going to show up in Toronto with everything they have.
Ugly has gone on his cherry-picked numbers rant against Hoffman pretty much since June. Doesn't matter how good or different Hoffman pitches when he has velocity vs when he loses velocity (usually from overwork)... Ugly will argue Hoffman is terrible even if he doesn't realize he's advocating for Little in doing so. Little won't survive the roster cuts after this season and his awful end to his season.
We shall see if maybe knows more than everyone else but I'll wager that everyone including the manager will show in their decisions that Little is done and not to be used or trusted because the numbers when contextualized provide a very clear message: he never should be put in the highest leverage pitching moment against LHH switches to the right side.
Jays deserves to win that and the manager deserves to get hung with the loss. Schneider has proven himself a good manager. That was as bone-headed a move you will see. Wilson will pitch around Vlad and the offense will be low scoring again...don't pretend that this offense should be scoring more runs against guys like Castillo, Gilbert and Kirby. They're going to show up in Toronto with everything they have.
Crap. I really was hoping that was all a dream. We didn’t really bring Little into a 1 run game in the bottom of the 8th in the biggest moment in a decade, did we? Oh? Oh.
Schneider’s faith in his guys has paid off much more often than not. This is one he will have to seriously rethink, assuming it’s not already too late. Little almost blew Game 4 against the Yankees too, don’t forget. Wells took him to the warning track.
Schneider’s faith in his guys has paid off much more often than not. This is one he will have to seriously rethink, assuming it’s not already too late. Little almost blew Game 4 against the Yankees too, don’t forget. Wells took him to the warning track.
I agree that I think Little is done in high-leverage spots for this series and potentially the playoffs. Schneider must know he can't go back to him again.
The Jays have gone 0-2 in Gausman's two starts and, over 11.1 innings, he only allowed two runs on solo homers. He left with a runner on first base and one out, so he was charged with a third earned run, but that's one that the reliever also has a huge role in. It's very depressing to think that we got about the best possible version of Gausman twice and blew both games.
The Jays have gone 0-2 in Gausman's two starts and, over 11.1 innings, he only allowed two runs on solo homers. He left with a runner on first base and one out, so he was charged with a third earned run, but that's one that the reliever also has a huge role in. It's very depressing to think that we got about the best possible version of Gausman twice and blew both games.
Way too much criticism of the manager juggling a bullpen that simply isn't that good.
Not enough focus on the 2025 Jays "historically good" postseason offense that scored two runs in a lynchpin game, was shutdown for the third time in the series and was stymied for the second time in 5 games by Bryce Wilson & his 5+ ERA.
The Jays also only were ahead on an arguably sus send by Febles for Kirk that could've been worse than the Bichette incident.
Not enough focus on the 2025 Jays "historically good" postseason offense that scored two runs in a lynchpin game, was shutdown for the third time in the series and was stymied for the second time in 5 games by Bryce Wilson & his 5+ ERA.
The Jays also only were ahead on an arguably sus send by Febles for Kirk that could've been worse than the Bichette incident.
As someone else said, Schneider manages scared in the playoffs. This might stem from the Seattle collapse or maybe it's part of his overall profile, but it's been pretty clear all postseason. Whether or not this impacted Game 5 depends on how much you believe his statement about giving the heart of Seattle's lineup different looks.
I think we can all (or, almost all of us) agree that Seattle's core trio of relievers are Speier, Brash and Munoz (the closer) and Toronto's are Varland, Dominguez and Hoffman (the closer).
In the ALCS game that Seattle won by seven runs, they used Bazardo, Vargas and Hancock to protect the lead. In the ALCS game that Toronto won by six runs, they used Varland, Dominguez and Hoffman to protect that lead. Varland made sense, as it was only a four-run lead at that point, but Schneider didn't alter his strategy after the Jays added two more runs.
Schneider used those three relievers (Varland, Dominguez and Hoffman) in a game the Jays were winning by nine runs. (In which Little pitched, too, fwiw.)
You can argue about whether he was getting these guys work in certain occasions, such as after the long layoff of the Wild Card Round, but it seems evident to me that if the Jays have a lead, Schneider's overwhelming urge is to turn to those three or to matchup the lefty. He doesn't have Wilson's faith in the other relievers to protect a bigger lead.
I think we can all (or, almost all of us) agree that Seattle's core trio of relievers are Speier, Brash and Munoz (the closer) and Toronto's are Varland, Dominguez and Hoffman (the closer).
In the ALCS game that Seattle won by seven runs, they used Bazardo, Vargas and Hancock to protect the lead. In the ALCS game that Toronto won by six runs, they used Varland, Dominguez and Hoffman to protect that lead. Varland made sense, as it was only a four-run lead at that point, but Schneider didn't alter his strategy after the Jays added two more runs.
Schneider used those three relievers (Varland, Dominguez and Hoffman) in a game the Jays were winning by nine runs. (In which Little pitched, too, fwiw.)
You can argue about whether he was getting these guys work in certain occasions, such as after the long layoff of the Wild Card Round, but it seems evident to me that if the Jays have a lead, Schneider's overwhelming urge is to turn to those three or to matchup the lefty. He doesn't have Wilson's faith in the other relievers to protect a bigger lead.
Pooks, we can discuss the fact the offence had a bad game, but I'm not sure how much there is to say other than they put a lot of runners on base and failed to score them. There was obviously a particularly bad sequence by Varsho and Clement with the bases loaded and none out that felt like it would come back to haunt them.
Also, it's pretty rare that the media panel is saying publicly, on-air, during a half-inning break, that the manager should not make this bullpen move and I guarantee you a lot of fans were thinking that and then, the manager goes on to make that move and it loses the team the game. I think trying to understand that decision, or even to vent about it, is a pretty reasonable post-game discussion topic.
And, also, what is the obsession with arguing that any runner going home when the outfielder's throw ends up within sixty feet of home plate is a "sus" send that risks season-ending injury?
Bichette's injury was a fluke. In this case, there was no play at home plate because Canzone doesn't have a great arm, which is what Febles read and gambled on. I'd much rather the Jays run the bases as they have all year rather than run them scared due to a fluke injury to Bichette.
Also, it's pretty rare that the media panel is saying publicly, on-air, during a half-inning break, that the manager should not make this bullpen move and I guarantee you a lot of fans were thinking that and then, the manager goes on to make that move and it loses the team the game. I think trying to understand that decision, or even to vent about it, is a pretty reasonable post-game discussion topic.
And, also, what is the obsession with arguing that any runner going home when the outfielder's throw ends up within sixty feet of home plate is a "sus" send that risks season-ending injury?
Bichette's injury was a fluke. In this case, there was no play at home plate because Canzone doesn't have a great arm, which is what Febles read and gambled on. I'd much rather the Jays run the bases as they have all year rather than run them scared due to a fluke injury to Bichette.
I don't buy the " they only had two runs, they should have scored more and they would have won" narrative. The Jays had a one run lead with two innings to go. Dominguez might have pitched better if he'd started the inning, Hoffman was available, Fisher and even Chris Bassitt were choices. Saying, well, if we'd scored 6 or 8 runs, we would have won belies the fact that you have to win close games in the playoffs, too. You should manage like there's no tomorrow and use your best available options.
Lost in the bullpen debacle is that Gausman pitched a great game and, once again, received poor run support, much like in Game 1, and throughout the season. I don't know the stats on it but I did hear it mentioned during one game that he received the worst run support of anybody on the staff.
Lost in the bullpen debacle is that Gausman pitched a great game and, once again, received poor run support, much like in Game 1, and throughout the season. I don't know the stats on it but I did hear it mentioned during one game that he received the worst run support of anybody on the staff.
"was stymied for the second time in 5 games by Bryce Wilson & his 5+ ERA."
Are you watching the games? Bryce Wilson in the payoffs is a different pitcher than Bryce Miller during the season. You can look at numbers or simply observe and this statement holds.
Are you watching the games? Bryce Wilson in the payoffs is a different pitcher than Bryce Miller during the season. You can look at numbers or simply observe and this statement holds.
Schneider manages scared in the playoffs.
I think he doesn't manage scared enough. I don't trust anyone in this bullpen. Schneider seems to. He manages as if he thinks they're going to get the job done. He's made of much stronger stuff than me.
I think Little was the natural choice in that situation. I simply don't believe anyone who now says they wanted Hoffman - the internet is forever - and anyone who wanted Dominguez to start the inning - against three LH batters in a one-run game - needs to acquaint themselves with his platoon splits. What Schneider did made sense to me. C'est la guerre. It didn't work.
I think he doesn't manage scared enough. I don't trust anyone in this bullpen. Schneider seems to. He manages as if he thinks they're going to get the job done. He's made of much stronger stuff than me.
I think Little was the natural choice in that situation. I simply don't believe anyone who now says they wanted Hoffman - the internet is forever - and anyone who wanted Dominguez to start the inning - against three LH batters in a one-run game - needs to acquaint themselves with his platoon splits. What Schneider did made sense to me. C'est la guerre. It didn't work.
"I think we can all (or, almost all of us) agree that Seattle's core trio of relievers are Speier, Brash and Munoz (the closer) and Toronto's are Varland, Dominguez and Hoffman (the closer)."
This delusion that Hoffman is one of our best relievers is bizarre to me tbh. It goes against literally every bit of evidence we have. He was a negative value player this year for chrissakes.
Speier Brash and Munoz have actually been the mariners measurable best rp.
This delusion that Hoffman is one of our best relievers is bizarre to me tbh. It goes against literally every bit of evidence we have. He was a negative value player this year for chrissakes.
Speier Brash and Munoz have actually been the mariners measurable best rp.
I wanted their best reliever. I don't believe that to be Little, but nor do I believe that to be Hoffman. I'm not sure who it is between Fischer, Bassitt, Nance, Fluharty, or Seranthony. Little was a defensible move, but I think with 2-3-4 you really want to go with your absolute best there.
Ugly, post the bullpen pitcher stats for the playoffs so far. Then comment on Hoffman's numbers compared to Little. Then provide explanation why Hoffman's stats are too small a sample and Little's lengthy season success. As a reason to support your narrative. Then call out posters that use the playoff numbers as a reference for why Hoffman is the better pitcher to use. Go!
Michael your post summarizes the view of most fans. "Why Little, seriously?" Is the complaint. Not "Schneider is a terrible manager," or "Hoffman is the best reliever." Literally just that Little was the least defensible option for that spot. It's crazy to look for avenues to defend that move. It was the wrong move.
Little has been used only in high leverage, Hoffman only in low. It's not difficult. And Little had very good playoffs stats going into last night despite the high leverage.
In fact all these other options that we've wanted to see in high leverage - inlcuding Fisher and Fluharty - have faltered as soon as they were tried there.
In fact all these other options that we've wanted to see in high leverage - inlcuding Fisher and Fluharty - have faltered as soon as they were tried there.
I'm not sure who it is between Fischer, Bassitt, Nance, Fluharty, or Seranthony.
Nance isn't on the ALCS roster. He & Bruihl were dropped from the ALDS version for Scherzer & Bassitt.
Listing out the rest of the non-Hoffman/Little bullpen (and Lauer) really shows how few backend, high leverage trusted types there really are in the pen at present.
Uglyone, it's clear Hoffman is part of their core reliever group. If you have watched the Jays this playoffs, Schneider's three most trusted relievers are Hoffman, Dominguez and Varland. Every lead they have had, they turn to Hoffman.
Also, Little has not "pitched well" in the playoffs. Before this game, Little had allowed one hit and gotten one strikeout in the ALCS, while also throwing a wild pitch. He allowed the winning run to score from first base with two out.
In the ALDS, he allowed two runners in two of the three innings he pitched. He has struck out two batters this postseason, one of whom was Anthony Volpe, who struck out 11 times in 15 at-bats this postseason.
Also, Little has not "pitched well" in the playoffs. Before this game, Little had allowed one hit and gotten one strikeout in the ALCS, while also throwing a wild pitch. He allowed the winning run to score from first base with two out.
In the ALDS, he allowed two runners in two of the three innings he pitched. He has struck out two batters this postseason, one of whom was Anthony Volpe, who struck out 11 times in 15 at-bats this postseason.
The pen is thin and that is contributing to the problem, but it's also, in part, a problem of their own making.
Schneider hasn't trusted Nance or, to a lesser extent, Fisher, to the degree one might expect given their numbers. Maybe they have underlying data to support that. It didn't help that neither of them pitched well in the ALDS, either.
This seems to have resulted in Fisher getting bumped to middle relief/low-leverage (in the ALCS, he's pitched in a four-run game in the middle innings and a 10-run game) and Nance being removed for Bassitt (instead of Yariel?) to give the pen more length. With Yariel pitching poorly (but seemingly never in consideration to be bumped off the roster), that essentially leaves the core three right-handers and the two short lefties, since Lauer and Bassitt seem to be saved for long relief/blowouts and Fisher appears to be in middle-relief limbo.
Schneider hasn't trusted Nance or, to a lesser extent, Fisher, to the degree one might expect given their numbers. Maybe they have underlying data to support that. It didn't help that neither of them pitched well in the ALDS, either.
This seems to have resulted in Fisher getting bumped to middle relief/low-leverage (in the ALCS, he's pitched in a four-run game in the middle innings and a 10-run game) and Nance being removed for Bassitt (instead of Yariel?) to give the pen more length. With Yariel pitching poorly (but seemingly never in consideration to be bumped off the roster), that essentially leaves the core three right-handers and the two short lefties, since Lauer and Bassitt seem to be saved for long relief/blowouts and Fisher appears to be in middle-relief limbo.
I don’t think Schneider is managing the bullpen any differently now than he would have if this game happened in June, and that’s the problem. He’s always “managed scared”. It would be a 6 run lead in the 9th with someone like Nance pitching, and the other team could hit two 75 mph singles that found holes and two high leverage arms would immediately start warming up. That’s what he is as a manager. Using Hoffman up 8-2 to “secure the win” is just how he manages period. Maybe he’s scared all season. It’s one of the reasons I beat the dead horse that he’s not good with managing a pen, especially as it relates to overworking them. A minor league manager shows blind faith in “his guys” regardless of results. A good manager adjusts. So far Little has lost them two games in this series, or at least coughed up the lead in both. Does Schneider adjust? Getting kind of late for that now. He is what he is. Little will be used again in a high leverage spot in this series, and post game Schneider will throw a few curse words and say “he’s been my guy all year”. Rinse and repeat.
Playoffs Appearances
Varland 7
Fluharty 7
Dominguez 6
Little 5
Fisher 5
Rodriguez 4
Hoffman 4
Lauer 3
Nance 2
Bassitt 1
Bruihl 1
Leverage when entering the game
Varland 1.81
Dominguez 1.19
Little 1.10
Fluharty 0.72
Rodriguez 0.49
Lauer 0.46
Hoffman 0.33
Fisher 0.31
Bassitt 0.14
Nance 0.09
Bruihl 0.01
I don’t know how much clearer it can be tbh. Hoffman has been one of the least trusted regular relievers.
Compare:
Appearances:
Speier 7
Brash 7
Bazardo 7
Munoz 6
Vargas 5
Ferguson 3
Jackson 2
Hancock 2
Castillo 1
Gilbert 1
Woo 1
Leverage
Speier 1.90
Munoz 1.49
Bazardo 1.22
Brash 1.21
Vargas 0.70
Ferguson 0.34
Hancock 0.09
Jackson 0.02
Castillo 3.60
Gilbert 2.22
Woo 1.34
Varland 7
Fluharty 7
Dominguez 6
Little 5
Fisher 5
Rodriguez 4
Hoffman 4
Lauer 3
Nance 2
Bassitt 1
Bruihl 1
Leverage when entering the game
Varland 1.81
Dominguez 1.19
Little 1.10
Fluharty 0.72
Rodriguez 0.49
Lauer 0.46
Hoffman 0.33
Fisher 0.31
Bassitt 0.14
Nance 0.09
Bruihl 0.01
I don’t know how much clearer it can be tbh. Hoffman has been one of the least trusted regular relievers.
Compare:
Appearances:
Speier 7
Brash 7
Bazardo 7
Munoz 6
Vargas 5
Ferguson 3
Jackson 2
Hancock 2
Castillo 1
Gilbert 1
Woo 1
Leverage
Speier 1.90
Munoz 1.49
Bazardo 1.22
Brash 1.21
Vargas 0.70
Ferguson 0.34
Hancock 0.09
Jackson 0.02
Castillo 3.60
Gilbert 2.22
Woo 1.34
Fascinating that the manager who gave us one of the great bullpen games of all time is accused of not understanding how to use relievers and not being able to adjust or be creative with their usage.
Ugly - you are skewing stats to try to argue rationale.
Most of the Jays' playoff games have been blowouts, which is why Hoffman's appearances are lower than the others. Schneider uses Hoffman like any manager would classically treat a "closer": he pitches him in the 1-3 run games, either to get the save, or to pitch the 9th inning if the game is tied and potentially going to extras. The only exception is when he hasn't been used in a while, in which case they will throw him out to get him work (like they did two nights ago when he came in with a 5-6 run lead, because he hadn't pitched in 4 days, or the game we won 10-1 against the Yankees because he hasn't pitched in 7 days at that point).
He is clearly being treated like the highest-leverage reliever in the bullpen in the sense that we have a Manager who treats the "closer" as the guy who has a very strict use-case scenario which he doesn't deviate from.
I don't even understand how your argument can make sense: if Hoffman is being treated as a low-leverage reliever like you claim, then he should have MORE appearances than he has had given how many blowouts there have been in both directions. Remember that your "low leverage" relievers are there to soak up innings not only when you are up big, but also when the opponent is up big. The fact that Hoffman has just 4 appearances in the playoffs is reflective on the fact that there hasn't been many situations for the "closer" to pitch.
His use case is even further proven by the must-win games at the end of the regular season, where he was also quite obviously being used as the traditional "closer" would be used.
Most of the Jays' playoff games have been blowouts, which is why Hoffman's appearances are lower than the others. Schneider uses Hoffman like any manager would classically treat a "closer": he pitches him in the 1-3 run games, either to get the save, or to pitch the 9th inning if the game is tied and potentially going to extras. The only exception is when he hasn't been used in a while, in which case they will throw him out to get him work (like they did two nights ago when he came in with a 5-6 run lead, because he hadn't pitched in 4 days, or the game we won 10-1 against the Yankees because he hasn't pitched in 7 days at that point).
He is clearly being treated like the highest-leverage reliever in the bullpen in the sense that we have a Manager who treats the "closer" as the guy who has a very strict use-case scenario which he doesn't deviate from.
I don't even understand how your argument can make sense: if Hoffman is being treated as a low-leverage reliever like you claim, then he should have MORE appearances than he has had given how many blowouts there have been in both directions. Remember that your "low leverage" relievers are there to soak up innings not only when you are up big, but also when the opponent is up big. The fact that Hoffman has just 4 appearances in the playoffs is reflective on the fact that there hasn't been many situations for the "closer" to pitch.
His use case is even further proven by the must-win games at the end of the regular season, where he was also quite obviously being used as the traditional "closer" would be used.
A lot went right in that game for the Jays. Remember it was only 2 games before that that the middle relievers got pounded but luckily the Jays had a big lead.
It's easy to be an armchair manager and speculate after the fact, but a lot of posters here had the same reaction when Little came into the game and performed exactly as we expected. It wasn't the home run that bothered me as much as the walks, and I would rather the possibility of Hoffman throwing heat in the strike zone and getting hit than see Little continually miss the strike zone by a large margin, just as he has in several recent appearances.
It's easy to be an armchair manager and speculate after the fact, but a lot of posters here had the same reaction when Little came into the game and performed exactly as we expected. It wasn't the home run that bothered me as much as the walks, and I would rather the possibility of Hoffman throwing heat in the strike zone and getting hit than see Little continually miss the strike zone by a large margin, just as he has in several recent appearances.
Fascinating that you can't answer a direct question of who you think was coming in to close last night's game.
Yeah, Hoffman is pretty clearly the most trusted reliever.
It wasn't the home run that bothered me as much as the walks
It was the home run that bothered me. I expected a walk or two - it's Brendon Little - but he hadn't given up a home run since July. I was perfectly fine with a walk or two, because Dominguez was ready behind him and Dominguez is in the major leagues because he's supposed to be able to get the RH batters coming up afterwards.
It was the home run that bothered me. I expected a walk or two - it's Brendon Little - but he hadn't given up a home run since July. I was perfectly fine with a walk or two, because Dominguez was ready behind him and Dominguez is in the major leagues because he's supposed to be able to get the RH batters coming up afterwards.
Yes i am skewiing stats and Hoffman hasn't been terrible all year and the manager has clearly been using him as his ace reliever these playoffs.
All of this is clearly supported by the facts.
All of this is clearly supported by the facts.
The problem with putting in Little there in a 1-runs game is that he had to face a minimum of 3 batters. This is a guy who is running a ~1.8 WHIP recently (or whatever the stat is) and is a huge wild-pitch liability. Which means that asking him to come in to face a minimum of 3 batters without having him put a guy in at least scoring position is a huge gamble, because there are so many different ways for a guy like him to load the bases and move runners over that are separate from the other team even hitting the ball.
The whole rhetoric of "well he's only given up one HR this season" actually makes me more nervous in that situation, not less. His HR rate this season was obviously an aberration, and now you are in the playoffs where nerves are at their highest and he can't just bounce the ball in the dirt repeatedly and have batters chase. So what happened? He didn't throw strikes and fell behind, and he hung one because he was rattled.
The whole rhetoric of "well he's only given up one HR this season" actually makes me more nervous in that situation, not less. His HR rate this season was obviously an aberration, and now you are in the playoffs where nerves are at their highest and he can't just bounce the ball in the dirt repeatedly and have batters chase. So what happened? He didn't throw strikes and fell behind, and he hung one because he was rattled.
Well, the home run did bother me but at least the hitter had to do something. A lot of Little's pitches during the two walks were way out of the zone and the hitters didn't even offer at them.
For what it's worth pretty much everyone that is "a Schneider guy," and has him on their podcasts regularly are dumbfounded over his Little play yesterday. He was managing really good generally so I think people are just confused by what happened.
They’ve (and it is they, because the FO is setting out bullpen plans pre-game for him) been using Hoffman in blowout leads all postseason even when there were games the following day.
It’s beyond clear they don’t trust him as a relief ace (nor should they given his terrible HR rate and generally poor command) and yesterday’s non-usage in a one run game was a further example of that.
It’s beyond clear they don’t trust him as a relief ace (nor should they given his terrible HR rate and generally poor command) and yesterday’s non-usage in a one run game was a further example of that.
This is not true. He has pitched twice in blowouts this postseason, but both times it was because he hadn't seen action and therefore needed work: 4+ days of rest two days ago, and 7+ days of rest when he pitched in the blowout vs. the Yankees. The fact that there was a game the next day means nothing, because there is an off-day today.
Where the hell are you guys pulling this logic from? Hoffman 1000% would have been the pitcher in the 9th inning last night if Little did his job. He was also closing all of the must-win games at the end of the regular season as well.
Where the hell are you guys pulling this logic from? Hoffman 1000% would have been the pitcher in the 9th inning last night if Little did his job. He was also closing all of the must-win games at the end of the regular season as well.
yes hoffman might have been used after all the actual high leverage guys were already used.
maybe. if the matchups weren't too unfavorable.
maybe. if the matchups weren't too unfavorable.
if i'm getting the argument correct it;s something like:
1. despite the manager being as unorthodox a bullpen manager as we see in the league, using reliecers aggressively from early on freely and liberally, he actually is a slave to one single old-school pitching trope - that the Closer only gets the 9th inning.
2. He believes that he must designate his best reliever as the "Closer", and cannot use him in any high leverage situation other than a 9th inning save situation.
3. He has decided that despite every single number available saying Hoffman is bad, that Hoffman is in fact actually his best reliever and must be the designated Closer.
4. A front office which has been criticized for over-reliance on analytics ahead of old-skool baseball strategy has decided in this one instance to ignore ALL analytics and stick with this one single baseball trope instead.
1. despite the manager being as unorthodox a bullpen manager as we see in the league, using reliecers aggressively from early on freely and liberally, he actually is a slave to one single old-school pitching trope - that the Closer only gets the 9th inning.
2. He believes that he must designate his best reliever as the "Closer", and cannot use him in any high leverage situation other than a 9th inning save situation.
3. He has decided that despite every single number available saying Hoffman is bad, that Hoffman is in fact actually his best reliever and must be the designated Closer.
4. A front office which has been criticized for over-reliance on analytics ahead of old-skool baseball strategy has decided in this one instance to ignore ALL analytics and stick with this one single baseball trope instead.
I’m in agreement with people who think the two walks were far worse than the homer. Home runs are impossible to forecast, for the most part (Aaron Judge certainly challenges the notion). Brendon Little walking somebody… that’s like the minute hand on a clock rotating back to 12. It’s that aspect of bringing him in the game, in a tight one run affair, that still irks me with its incomphresion.
I had indicated earlier that I would like to have seen Eric Lauer in the Andrew Miller role during the playoffs. With Chris Bassitt on the ALCS roster and able to fill the long relief role, I think that Lauer has been underutilized. In 2025, opponents have hit .144/.212/.202 against Lauer in a relief role, and I have more confidence in him than in any reliever on the roster and far more confidence than in Brendon Little at this point. Lauer has been very effective against both LHB and RHB.
Yes, Lauer has been terrific. More Lauer, please.
But in general not bothered by the bullpen choices. Good relievers have bad games. It happens. They’ll get ‘em next time.
But in general not bothered by the bullpen choices. Good relievers have bad games. It happens. They’ll get ‘em next time.
1. despite the manager being as unorthodox a bullpen manager as we see in the league, using reliecers aggressively from early on freely and liberally, he actually is a slave to one single old-school pitching trope - that the Closer only gets the 9th inning. ** He lets the SP go as far as possible before pulling him. You write as if he uses an opener every other day like the Rays did in 2022.
2. He believes that he must designate his best reliever as the "Closer", and cannot use him in any high leverage situation other than a 9th inning save situation. ** He's used him in non 9th inning situations. You can't have it both ways, claiming that Hoffman isn't used in 9th inning high leverage leads (when they're haven't been many) while also saying he's used in non high leverage roles earlier in the game. The reason for point B is the effect of cause A. He's pitched in lower leverage because he needs work and didn't get a 9th inning save. See: ALL OF THE 2025 regular season or continue to ignore it when inconvenient for your "preferred," narrative.
3. He has decided that despite every single number available saying Hoffman is bad, that Hoffman is in fact actually his best reliever and must be the designated Closer. ** We're still waiting for you to post these stats from the 2025 playoffs showing that "Hoffman is bad," as if stat will say that. I also like how you are switching the argument from Hoffman > Little to "Hoffman isn't our best reliever," which nobody has ever said...just admit you're wrong and Hoffman isn't the worse pitcher that nobody trusts in this playoffs and he wasn't brought in instead of Little for this made up reason.
4. A front office which has been criticized for over-reliance on analytics ahead of old-skool baseball strategy has decided in this one instance to ignore ALL analytics and stick with this one single baseball trope instead. ** what analytics are you referring to? What numbers show that in the last 3 weeks Hoffman is an inferior pitcher against RHH than Little???
2. He believes that he must designate his best reliever as the "Closer", and cannot use him in any high leverage situation other than a 9th inning save situation. ** He's used him in non 9th inning situations. You can't have it both ways, claiming that Hoffman isn't used in 9th inning high leverage leads (when they're haven't been many) while also saying he's used in non high leverage roles earlier in the game. The reason for point B is the effect of cause A. He's pitched in lower leverage because he needs work and didn't get a 9th inning save. See: ALL OF THE 2025 regular season or continue to ignore it when inconvenient for your "preferred," narrative.
3. He has decided that despite every single number available saying Hoffman is bad, that Hoffman is in fact actually his best reliever and must be the designated Closer. ** We're still waiting for you to post these stats from the 2025 playoffs showing that "Hoffman is bad," as if stat will say that. I also like how you are switching the argument from Hoffman > Little to "Hoffman isn't our best reliever," which nobody has ever said...just admit you're wrong and Hoffman isn't the worse pitcher that nobody trusts in this playoffs and he wasn't brought in instead of Little for this made up reason.
4. A front office which has been criticized for over-reliance on analytics ahead of old-skool baseball strategy has decided in this one instance to ignore ALL analytics and stick with this one single baseball trope instead. ** what analytics are you referring to? What numbers show that in the last 3 weeks Hoffman is an inferior pitcher against RHH than Little???
"There is no reason the Jays should have gone to Little in that situation. For the life of me I don't understand it...he has a curveball that is impossible to hit if he can get it into the zone but he can't get it into the zone. Brendan Little walked 6 batters per 9. He threw a huge wild pitch in Game 1 which led to a game winning run. Brendan Little is always an adventure. He's made 4 other appearances in these playoffs and needed to be bailed out against lefties. Wild pitches and go ahead RBI singles...Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco are both switch hitters and much better hitting RH (facing a left handed pitcher...Cal had a .1032 OPS and .681 slugging ...he is absolutely without question a better hitter against LHP. This is what smacks of "too cute." It happens with Lottle in Game 1 and Game 5.
Now the Blue Jays who felt like they were in control are now facing elimination...who could they have brought in? Rodriguez is struggling, Dominguez is not strong against LHH, Fischer hasn't been good. This feels like a game they should have won. The first game that they got beat playing the way they normally do when they win.
- Mike Wilner (the others weren't so polite)
Now the Blue Jays who felt like they were in control are now facing elimination...who could they have brought in? Rodriguez is struggling, Dominguez is not strong against LHH, Fischer hasn't been good. This feels like a game they should have won. The first game that they got beat playing the way they normally do when they win.
- Mike Wilner (the others weren't so polite)
Mike Wilner disagreeing is the perfect proof that Schneider was right.
Thank you for that.
Thank you for that.
ALDS
Game 1: Jays win 10-1, Hoffman pitches 9th
Game 2: Jays win 13-7
Game 3: Jays lose 9-6
Game 4: Jays win 5-2, Hoffman gets the save
Three days off
ALCS
Game 1: Jays lose 3-1, Hoffman pitches 9th
Game 2: Jays lose 10-3
Game 3: Jays win 13-4
Game 4: Jays win 8-2, Hoffman pitches 8th against top of order, started warming up when the score was 6-2.
Game 5: Jays lose 6-2
At what point has Schneider shown that Hoffman isn’t his main guy? Every Jays win in the playoffs has been a blowout except for Game 4 of the ALDS which was a bullpen game that Hoffman closed out (final 1.1 innings). My guess is he was used in Game 4 on Thursday because he had 3 days off and Schneider doesn’t like giving him too many days off. I wouldn’t have used Hoffman in Game 4, and instead saved him for Game 5 regardless, but Schneider has always managed like no lead is safe unless it’s double digits. Bringing Hoffman in when the score was 6-2 (went to 8-2) is perfectly on brand with how Schneider manages, and going to Little last night was sadly also on brand, but he was almost certainly saving Hoffman for the 9th not realizing that putting his worst performing RP outside of Yariel in that spot would ensure that the 9th would never happen.
Game 1: Jays win 10-1, Hoffman pitches 9th
Game 2: Jays win 13-7
Game 3: Jays lose 9-6
Game 4: Jays win 5-2, Hoffman gets the save
Three days off
ALCS
Game 1: Jays lose 3-1, Hoffman pitches 9th
Game 2: Jays lose 10-3
Game 3: Jays win 13-4
Game 4: Jays win 8-2, Hoffman pitches 8th against top of order, started warming up when the score was 6-2.
Game 5: Jays lose 6-2
At what point has Schneider shown that Hoffman isn’t his main guy? Every Jays win in the playoffs has been a blowout except for Game 4 of the ALDS which was a bullpen game that Hoffman closed out (final 1.1 innings). My guess is he was used in Game 4 on Thursday because he had 3 days off and Schneider doesn’t like giving him too many days off. I wouldn’t have used Hoffman in Game 4, and instead saved him for Game 5 regardless, but Schneider has always managed like no lead is safe unless it’s double digits. Bringing Hoffman in when the score was 6-2 (went to 8-2) is perfectly on brand with how Schneider manages, and going to Little last night was sadly also on brand, but he was almost certainly saving Hoffman for the 9th not realizing that putting his worst performing RP outside of Yariel in that spot would ensure that the 9th would never happen.
In other news, how good is Ohtani? 3 HR hit and 6 shutout innings with 10 K pitched? Dodgers are on par or as good as any team with no Ohtani, and then you add Ohtani to that team?
Regardless of who wins between Toronto and Seattle, you have to think Dodgers are the favorite IMHO. I still think we can beat Seattle and Dodgers yet - but we are less than 50% for each at this point.
Regardless of who wins between Toronto and Seattle, you have to think Dodgers are the favorite IMHO. I still think we can beat Seattle and Dodgers yet - but we are less than 50% for each at this point.
Yeah Wilmer is not someone any of us holds up in any great regard that's for sure, but he's the type of shock commentator that never lets go of an argument for fear of being wrong, like you, often double and triple dosing...but even he was smart enough to concede that that was one of the dumbest moves he had seen. Your response was even better than you likely intended it, so thank you for that.
It’s too early for postmortems and I think there’s a good chance they still do this but when it’s finally written paying
Chad Green 10.5m
Yimi Garcia 7.5m
Erik Swanson 3.0m
+ Yariel for last couple of months including the playoffs at 7.0m
And then all of them being between injured and disastrous is going to be what we look back on here.
If even one of them is elite this is probably a different story. My main issue with Schneider is he manages like he has a bullpen and he doesn’t - he has a couple of guys. That’s on the FO as well.
It’s weird that he hasn’t thought that his two starters in the pen are almost certainly better than almost the whole bulllpen. It’s not like Liittle has any pedigree at all…
Chad Green 10.5m
Yimi Garcia 7.5m
Erik Swanson 3.0m
+ Yariel for last couple of months including the playoffs at 7.0m
And then all of them being between injured and disastrous is going to be what we look back on here.
If even one of them is elite this is probably a different story. My main issue with Schneider is he manages like he has a bullpen and he doesn’t - he has a couple of guys. That’s on the FO as well.
It’s weird that he hasn’t thought that his two starters in the pen are almost certainly better than almost the whole bulllpen. It’s not like Liittle has any pedigree at all…
Ideally Little and Rodriguez don't touch a baseball for the next two games unless the Jays are up 10.
And no IKF. Barger at 3B and Schneider in LF... Hopefully the good news on Springer was not game play and he's starting at DH.
And no IKF. Barger at 3B and Schneider in LF... Hopefully the good news on Springer was not game play and he's starting at DH.
Can't entirely fault the FO over Green, Garcia, Swanson all flopping/injured plus Yariel flopping the last couple of months. Relievers are always massively variable due to the limited innings and nature of the job. Generally you build up the best arms you can find and cross your fingers.
For relievers with over 100 PA against...
Playoffs at FG don't have OPS against sadly, but does have FIP.
What does this all mean? Hard to say. Basically, some guys clearly shouldn't be used right now - Little, Rodriguez both have been trending badly lately vs early in the season, others need to be given more of a chance - Lauer stands out the most, Fluharty should be the 'trusted LH in pressure' right now, Hoffman has been what we hoped for when the pressure has been on, maybe mix in Bassitt more often.
But today is a must win - so short leashes for everyone. I hope for a strong start from Yesavage - if he can go 5 and allow 3 or fewer he will have done his job. I'd then bring in Bassitt for the 6/7th innings and depending on situation Hoffman might be used in the 8th or 9th with Lauer/Fluharty/Fisher all ready to go and Dominguez/Varland if you have at least a 2 run lead. Do NOT let Raleigh beat you. He shouldn't be swinging unless bases are loaded or there is a big spread.
For relievers with over 100 PA against...
- OPS sub 600 (aka 'wow'): Laurer, Fisher, Nance (all sub 500), Little. Also there but sub 100 PA - Garcia, Borucki, Dominguez
- OPS 600-699 (aka 'solid'): Yariel, Fluharty
- OPS 700s (aka 'livable'): Hoffman
- OPS 800s (aka 'oh crap'): none over 100 PA, Schultz, Varland, Tate, Bruihl
- OPS 900+ (aka 'do not use'): Green, no others had 40 PA against (Swanson landed here, actually worse at 1.239)
- Sub 600: Yesavage, Fisher, Dominguez, Gausman, Fluharty, Nance (499)
- 600s: Yariel, Bieber
- 700s: Little, Bassitt, Lauer, Hoffman
- 800s: Varland, Scherzer, Berrios
- 900+: Bruihl most PA against at 39, with Green & Heineman here too (Green worse than Heineman)
- Sub 600: Fluharty (059 in 17 PA), Hoffman, Lauer, Borucki, Fisher, Dominguez, Yesavage
- 600's: Gausman, Little, Bassitt, Yariel, Nance
- 700s: Varland, Bieber
- 900+: Berrios, Scherzer, Heineman
Playoffs at FG don't have OPS against sadly, but does have FIP.
- FIP sub 3: Bassitt, Lauer, Hoffman, Yesavage
- 3's: Bieber
- 4's: Fisher, Fluharty, Gausman
- 5's: Nance (xFIP over 10 - lucky on fly balls staying in), Scherzer, Varland (xFIP of 2.88 - he really has issues with fly balls flying out)
- 6's: Dominguez
- 10+: Little, Rodriguez, Bruihl
What does this all mean? Hard to say. Basically, some guys clearly shouldn't be used right now - Little, Rodriguez both have been trending badly lately vs early in the season, others need to be given more of a chance - Lauer stands out the most, Fluharty should be the 'trusted LH in pressure' right now, Hoffman has been what we hoped for when the pressure has been on, maybe mix in Bassitt more often.
But today is a must win - so short leashes for everyone. I hope for a strong start from Yesavage - if he can go 5 and allow 3 or fewer he will have done his job. I'd then bring in Bassitt for the 6/7th innings and depending on situation Hoffman might be used in the 8th or 9th with Lauer/Fluharty/Fisher all ready to go and Dominguez/Varland if you have at least a 2 run lead. Do NOT let Raleigh beat you. He shouldn't be swinging unless bases are loaded or there is a big spread.
How have the Jays done in 'must win' games?
1985: lost the only one; 1989: same; 1991: same; 1992/1993: never in situation; 2015: 4-1; 2016: 2-1 (fell behind 3-0 in ALCS); 2020/2022/2023: lost it
Net in must win playoff games: 6-8 all time. Lets hope the 2025 Jays can even up that record this round.
1985: lost the only one; 1989: same; 1991: same; 1992/1993: never in situation; 2015: 4-1; 2016: 2-1 (fell behind 3-0 in ALCS); 2020/2022/2023: lost it
Net in must win playoff games: 6-8 all time. Lets hope the 2025 Jays can even up that record this round.
I thought maybe Loperfido for Schneider but no, it's IKF instead of either again for some reason.
Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
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1m
John Schneider said George Springer "was in really good spirits yesterday and he's like, ‘Yeah, I'm playing.’ … I talked to him last night, texted him this morning and he was like, ‘Stop asking. I'm good.’"
Blue Jays expect "he’ll be a pretty normal version of himself.”
@ShiDavidi
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1m
John Schneider said George Springer "was in really good spirits yesterday and he's like, ‘Yeah, I'm playing.’ … I talked to him last night, texted him this morning and he was like, ‘Stop asking. I'm good.’"
Blue Jays expect "he’ll be a pretty normal version of himself.”
You are picking such a weird hill to die upon that Schneider doesn't trust Hoffman.
Leaving aside that Schneider isn't the most unconventional bullpen manager in the league, which is an odd claim when Hoffman got 33 saves and the next leading reliever got 3. (The Jays had seven pitchers get saves this year. Arizona has 17. Even if you eliminate the pitchers with one save, Toronto had three pitchers with multiple saves. Arizona had nine.)
I don't think anyone has specifically argued Hoffman is the best reliever. What I, and I think others, have argued is that he trusts Hoffman. You have argued he doesn't.
Yes, Hoffman is the designated closer. You know who got the last save for the Jays in a near must-win game? Hoffman. You know who didn't and was available, having only thrown 0.2 innings and 16 pitches the day before and not pitched the day before that? Dominguez.
Leaving aside that Schneider isn't the most unconventional bullpen manager in the league, which is an odd claim when Hoffman got 33 saves and the next leading reliever got 3. (The Jays had seven pitchers get saves this year. Arizona has 17. Even if you eliminate the pitchers with one save, Toronto had three pitchers with multiple saves. Arizona had nine.)
I don't think anyone has specifically argued Hoffman is the best reliever. What I, and I think others, have argued is that he trusts Hoffman. You have argued he doesn't.
Yes, Hoffman is the designated closer. You know who got the last save for the Jays in a near must-win game? Hoffman. You know who didn't and was available, having only thrown 0.2 innings and 16 pitches the day before and not pitched the day before that? Dominguez.
Dodgers fans discussing who they would prefer to see in the World Series.
The appeal of Seattle? The Dodgers would have home field, it's in the same time zone, no long international flights....
The appeal of Toronto? The Dodgers would win the championship on their home field.
Well, then.
The appeal of Seattle? The Dodgers would have home field, it's in the same time zone, no long international flights....
The appeal of Toronto? The Dodgers would win the championship on their home field.
Well, then.