Bring it home.
Matchup!
Gausman (10-11, 3.59) vs Miller (4-6, 5.68)
So Springer-Lukes-Vlad-Kirk-Varsho-Clement-Barger-IKF-Gimenez is the lineup (if it ain't broke, don't fix it).
Most HR in a single season playoff - 10 by Randy Arozarena in 2020 (20 games). Vlad's 5 (in 8 games) is nice but a long way to go to catch the overall record. Stanton in 2020 had 7 in 7 games for most in sub 10 games. Another of note: Juan Gonzalez hit 5 in just 4 games in 1996 for Texas.
Vlad's next HR in the playoffs will tie him with Bautista and Carter for most Jays HR in the playoffs lifetime. Hard to believe given Vlad had 0 before this year in the playoffs.
Most HR in a single season playoff - 10 by Randy Arozarena in 2020 (20 games). Vlad's 5 (in 8 games) is nice but a long way to go to catch the overall record. Stanton in 2020 had 7 in 7 games for most in sub 10 games. Another of note: Juan Gonzalez hit 5 in just 4 games in 1996 for Texas.
Vlad's next HR in the playoffs will tie him with Bautista and Carter for most Jays HR in the playoffs lifetime. Hard to believe given Vlad had 0 before this year in the playoffs.
It's been really incredible to see Vlad take off this post season. After his opening playoffs home run against the Yankees it just felt different. I remember even after he hit that home run he didn't over-celebrate it. He watched it then walked around the bases like a man on a bigger mission than getting a monkey off his back. Tremendous.
aw crap first time these playoffs the butterflies are attacking me early.
Pretty annoying that Miller has basically added 2 MPH on his stuff for this series.
gaus has no command at all. pull it together big guy.
he reeled it in nicely. good stuff.
not gonna lie hitting Julio-Cal 1-2 is probably the right move but suddenly their lineup feels a lot thinner.
not gonna lie hitting Julio-Cal 1-2 is probably the right move but suddenly their lineup feels a lot thinner.
If Gausman gets friendly calls he's going to be very hard to hit.
The Jays have been getting calls all postseason. So much for the biased American umpires.
SN worked on my phone in France this week when I wasn't on wifi.
The Mariners infield D has been very solid so far.
The Mariners infield D has been very solid so far.
by my count we've swung at 9 clear balls already.
Miller carved up Varsho, Clement and Barger that inning. All three batters hacked at pitches well out of the strike zone during their PA.
Mariners came to play. They're not bailing gausman out at all.
Some pretty bad luck there. Gimenez scorched that and anywhere else, Jays are setup for big inning.
Nice play by Naylor (right as I tuned in here from Ireland, don’t ask how) but IKF’s instincts on the bases do make me scratch my head a little. Nobody out, line drive… it gets through the infield even if your first move on a liner is back to the base, you probably still get to third at least. Seemed like he froze for a split second of indecision and it doomed him, though he might not have been able to get back at all regardless.
Have to grind, keep it close, and find an opportunity to score later in the game.
a lot of hard contact off Miller since falefa.
Lukes is unreal. So good.
Really need a hit from Kirk here.
Really need a hit from Kirk here.
ok varsho you're allowed to swing at high heat out of the zone or junk in the dirt....but not both.
Took advantage of Clement’s aggressiveness with that low splitter to start the PA.
Yeah - that's going to be hard to come back from. Sometimes it just isn't your night. Lots of time though.
Can't go the whole game with Seattle getting all the breaks.
Bases loaded nobody out… hitting a ball a total of six inches in fair territory… these are the moments you pull your hair out over.
Was gonna say Raleigh looks really clunky behind the plate catching certain pitches (he really does) but he was damn quick to recognize that double play on a platter. Keep it close, fight for another opportunity.
Was gonna say Raleigh looks really clunky behind the plate catching certain pitches (he really does) but he was damn quick to recognize that double play on a platter. Keep it close, fight for another opportunity.
Obviously you don’t think of it in the moment, but Clement would’ve been better off just kicking or stepping on the ball as he went toward first. What a killer pair of at bats.
Falefa's glove ain't all that.
Thank god his bat is unstoppable atm.
Thank god his bat is unstoppable atm.
The M’s haven’t blown any glorious opportunities the way the Blue Jays have the last couple of innings, but they’ve had a runner on in each of the first, second and fourth innings and been unable to score those runners.
this is the right call imo. Miller has been crazy lucky.
unfortunately i don;t like the bottom of our order's chances against Brash.
unfortunately i don;t like the bottom of our order's chances against Brash.
IKF having the kind of game that should make the manager want to take him out. Baserunning mistake. Fielding mistake. badly failed bunting situation. these are the things he's supposed to be good at.
Hope the Jays don't hook Gausman too early. He hasn't been at his best but I trust him way more than our relievers.
beauty.
keep him in, schneider. don't overthink it.
keep him in, schneider. don't overthink it.
With a high of 22 tomorrow, let the Summer of George continue!
They are really eager to bring in a guy who has never pitched out of the pen, and hasn't pitched in a month. Make em pay.
They are really eager to bring in a guy who has never pitched out of the pen, and hasn't pitched in a month. Make em pay.
Love the sequence from Gausman to Raleigh (sorry if I’m misspelling but it’s like 1am here and my bunk mate snores like a sawdust factory). Stuck with the low and away splitters, just off the plate where even a power behemoth like the Big Dumper couldn’t flick it out the other way. With a nice but too high fastball above the zone just to disrupt Raleigh’s timing on the split.
Buckle in, my baseball friends. Smoke or toke em if you got em.
Buckle in, my baseball friends. Smoke or toke em if you got em.
now THAT is why you force the defense to make the play.
lol what a terrible throw.
lol what a terrible throw.
Interesting. I would have thought that that was a place to use Schneider to PH.
Schneider is a new man. Max has CHANGED him.
gaus looks to be on fumes but he just keeps letting him go.
i love it.
gaus looks to be on fumes but he just keeps letting him go.
i love it.
That was a really gutsy effort by Gausman. I didn't think he had much stuff or control today but he really battled.
Varland again with the potential go-ahead run at the plate — Terrifying, but hopefully he’s gotten the long balls out of his system.
Good job, Varland. And wow did the home plate ump badly miss another call.
So is it Hoffman or Little for Cal next time through.
A game of inches and the inches aren't going the Jays way tonight. Hope Springer is OK. That looked awful. Oh no, they're bringing in Little.
Let’s just say I have… little faith this will go well…
Thank you thank you. Yes I’m also terrified, don’t try the veal.
Thank you thank you. Yes I’m also terrified, don’t try the veal.
Can't go the whole game with Seattle getting all the breaks.
I stand corrected...
I stand corrected...
They went to Hoffman last night in same situation which was great. Tonight, why not again?
Why?
Schneider is managing around Josh Naylor at the expense of using his best relievers.
Schneider is managing around Josh Naylor at the expense of using his best relievers.
Can we never ever see Little again in a tight situation? He doesn’t have it right now and even when he does, he attacks the strikezone as though he’s blindfolded. Enough with this guy.
Little was the worst decision. Control risk, and DISADVANTAGE
In turning around Raleigh & Polanco. Prime WTF Schneider.
In turning around Raleigh & Polanco. Prime WTF Schneider.
Sorry but if you haven't learned not to use Little in high leverage situations (shouldn't have since May) then you deserve to lose the game...
I wish anybody trusted me as much as Schneider trusts Little.
Can we just leave Little in Seattle? Give him the wrong coordinates for the charter home?
Gerry posted something a few days ago about how Fluharty had overtaken Little on the depth chart.
I wish that was true.
I wish that was true.
This Little mistake might end up being a big one…
Not funny? Yeah I didn’t think so either. Seriously though WTF bringing in Little nobody on the freaking planet thought that was a good idea except Mariners fans.
Not funny? Yeah I didn’t think so either. Seriously though WTF bringing in Little nobody on the freaking planet thought that was a good idea except Mariners fans.
He literally managed through the same scenario with a big lead yesterday with Dominguez and Hoffman and it worked out well.
Why use your best pitcher in the toughest spot in the game when you can use your worst?
That’s a doozy.
A real… real… +}#*}{+{££££ doozy…
A real… real… +}#*}{+{££££ doozy…
Just confounding and heartbreaking—so many chances not cashed in followed by a managerial and bullpen collapse. Maybe the bats have a miracle in them to wipe this bad taste away?
Looks like the Jays are about to have three losses. Little can be blamed for two of them.
But seriously. An insane decision we all saw before the badness even happened. Infuriating. It’s 2am here and I can’t even scream… I’d wake up the jerk bunk mate who snores 15 hours a day and thus hasn’t allowed me a good night of sleep since I crossed over the ocean…
What? No you’re upset!
What? No you’re upset!
Wear that one, John. Tough to win 2-1…. And yet… wear it.
They did what they had to do - win 2 out of 3 in a tough ballpark to get the series back home to give themselves a chance. Pray for Springer's knee.
It does seem crazy that up 1 facing the 2-3-4 danger part of the lineup in the bottom of the 8th you don't bring in your best pitcher. If our closer was our best pitcher, you bring him in. When our closer arguably isn't our best pitcher, bring in your best reliever. Now we still might have lost, but better to give your chance the biggest chance instead of the littlest. I mean I don't think Little is terrible, but he's not our best reliever.
I think he thought he had already used his best pitcher.
I think all this cascades from the early hook. Just let these starters finish their innings. The relievers are not good with inherited runners anyway. Baffled as to why Little gets the top of that lineup
I hate to say this... but Little made sense to me in the moment. A one-run lead in the eighth with the power hitters coming up? The reliever who is least likely to allow a home run - and yes, that's Brendon Little - seems logical.
Yeah the home run was somewhat unlikely. Little had only given up 2 all year.
But he walks everyone. After the hr it was only tied, but by the time he left there were two walks on base.
But he walks everyone. After the hr it was only tied, but by the time he left there were two walks on base.
Least likely to allow a home run sure… but I tend to prefer guys who are even less likely to allow baserunners, which enables random wacky stuff to happen (or just plain bombs over the fence, both are equally brutal).
Overall… this is a rough kick to the gut but I agree, being down 3-2 at this point after those first two games… we would’ve taken it earlier this week. The season is still alive, we have something to gnaw our pointy teeth about and an easy target or two to do so. Both games are at home… time to break the Seattle-owning-us-at-the-SkyDome, right?
Sigh. I need a dozen pillows to stuff out that godawful snoring.
Overall… this is a rough kick to the gut but I agree, being down 3-2 at this point after those first two games… we would’ve taken it earlier this week. The season is still alive, we have something to gnaw our pointy teeth about and an easy target or two to do so. Both games are at home… time to break the Seattle-owning-us-at-the-SkyDome, right?
Sigh. I need a dozen pillows to stuff out that godawful snoring.
"Little made sense to me in the moment."
I think Little was a defensible choice as Magpie alludes. But I give Eephus credit for complaining about the choice before the results came in. For me those are the only reliever complaints that are legit.
I think Little was a defensible choice as Magpie alludes. But I give Eephus credit for complaining about the choice before the results came in. For me those are the only reliever complaints that are legit.
Well, once he'd given up the homer I would have taken him out if they hadn't changed the rules.
It’s the top of the order. You have to go to either the closer or Varland/relief ace. I didn’t think that was little an hour ago and I don’t think it is now.
I've been saying for months now that Little is our very own Mitch Williams.
And now he's had his Mitch Williams Moment.
And now he's had his Mitch Williams Moment.
They are saying on TV that RHB have hit .500 off Little, I believe it's in the post season.
HR allowed per 9ip:
Little 0.26
Seranthony 0.72
Fisher 0.72
Varland 0.74
Yariel 0.99
Fluharty 1.03
Hoffman 1.99
Rank of all 138 qualifed RP in MLB
1. Morejon 0.24
2. Whitlock 0.25
3. Little 0.26
4. Ashcraft 0.28
5. Ferguson 0.28
134. Bellozo 1.92
135. Rutledge 1.96
136. Chivilli 1.99
137. Hoffman 1.99
138. Alcala 2.13
there's a reason Little was in for Hoffman against their power bats in a one run game.
Little 0.26
Seranthony 0.72
Fisher 0.72
Varland 0.74
Yariel 0.99
Fluharty 1.03
Hoffman 1.99
Rank of all 138 qualifed RP in MLB
1. Morejon 0.24
2. Whitlock 0.25
3. Little 0.26
4. Ashcraft 0.28
5. Ferguson 0.28
134. Bellozo 1.92
135. Rutledge 1.96
136. Chivilli 1.99
137. Hoffman 1.99
138. Alcala 2.13
there's a reason Little was in for Hoffman against their power bats in a one run game.
Well, according to Schneider it's also that, "We want that part of the lineup to see different guys."
So why did you use Dominguez and Hoffman with a six-run lead yesterday?
So why did you use Dominguez and Hoffman with a six-run lead yesterday?
The solo home run I can live with. The two walks, which are definitely part of Little’s m.o., are the things you can’t live with in the bottom eighth on the road. Completely inexplicable decision from Schneider.
Hoffman is used with a 6 run lead cuz HRs don't hurt as much.
Well, there was also the fact that Gausman comes out in the 6th instead of trying to get through 7.
Schneider has done this the entire time he’s managed so it’s not like it’s a shock. I just am never going to like pulling a starter that’s been on all night. This isn’t the Dodgers or another elite pen we have here.
Hindsight is 20-20 and Schneider has done a lot with what he’s been handed this year. On Reddit people are acting like this is the worst decision in Jays history which is too hyperbolic.
Did they announce Yesavage for Sunday? What about using Bassit as an opener? Schneider says he used little to make the top face arms they haven’t seen.
Schneider has done this the entire time he’s managed so it’s not like it’s a shock. I just am never going to like pulling a starter that’s been on all night. This isn’t the Dodgers or another elite pen we have here.
Hindsight is 20-20 and Schneider has done a lot with what he’s been handed this year. On Reddit people are acting like this is the worst decision in Jays history which is too hyperbolic.
Did they announce Yesavage for Sunday? What about using Bassit as an opener? Schneider says he used little to make the top face arms they haven’t seen.
I’m not exactly thrilled about being proven right before the bad thing happened (it’s like betting correctly on where the meteor is gonna hit the Earth. Hooray?)
While I disagree with Magpie’s Mitch Williams 1993 comp (didn’t Williams actually have a few helpful moments for the Phillies in that run?) I do think that once he’d given up the dinger, if not for the three batter rule he’d have been out of the game quicker than a… a… I dunno it’s 3am here insert your own joke. Help me out, please!
If Schneider had been able to yank him right away, instead of helplessly watch as he walked the next two batters with nobody out… well I’m not really sure what would’ve happened or what we would think. Bottom 8th on the road, inheriting two runners with nobody out in a tie game… that’s where I really blame Little because that’s just an unreasonable situation to escape from. Not impossible, but definitely unreasonable to expect.
Bringing in Little still remains an awful decision and a crucially bad one should the Jays not win the next two games. I’m sorry but that’s just how I see it.
While I disagree with Magpie’s Mitch Williams 1993 comp (didn’t Williams actually have a few helpful moments for the Phillies in that run?) I do think that once he’d given up the dinger, if not for the three batter rule he’d have been out of the game quicker than a… a… I dunno it’s 3am here insert your own joke. Help me out, please!
If Schneider had been able to yank him right away, instead of helplessly watch as he walked the next two batters with nobody out… well I’m not really sure what would’ve happened or what we would think. Bottom 8th on the road, inheriting two runners with nobody out in a tie game… that’s where I really blame Little because that’s just an unreasonable situation to escape from. Not impossible, but definitely unreasonable to expect.
Bringing in Little still remains an awful decision and a crucially bad one should the Jays not win the next two games. I’m sorry but that’s just how I see it.
I suppose I was thinking rather like Schneider - Cal Raleigh was coming up and I was worried about the solo homer that would tie the game. I didn't consider the big inning that would lose it.
And baseball has a sense of humour, I got both!
And baseball has a sense of humour, I got both!
My heart sank when I saw Little come in and I knew something bad was going to happen. Just a brutal decision that might cost the Jays the series.
If HR were only issue, then I'd get Little but he's been bad for a long time. His Whip in the second half was 1.54. We've watched him pitch and it's been brutal for months. What makes it even crazier is that Raleigh and Polanco are both significantly better against lefties. It feels like the whole thing was about Naylor.
Little Sept/Oct: 9.2ip, 1.21lvg (#3), 2.79era, 2.93fip, 3.73xfip
Playoffs b4 tonight: 3.0ip, 0.76lvg (#3), 3.00era, 3.80fip, 6.89xfip
Playoffs b4 tonight: 3.0ip, 0.76lvg (#3), 3.00era, 3.80fip, 6.89xfip
Glevin, I agree.
I said it an hour ago and it's like Schneider saw Little versus Naylor as a huge advantage that outweighed all other considerations.
It's as if it overrode Little's poor form recently, the fact that he'd be facing two right-handed batters with the numbers Gerry posted. It overrode that if Dominguez got two batters, he could pitch around Naylor. It overrode that Raleigh is one of the best hitters in baseball and you, presumably, want your best reliever to face him, not the one who has been very mediocre recently.
I said it an hour ago and it's like Schneider saw Little versus Naylor as a huge advantage that outweighed all other considerations.
It's as if it overrode Little's poor form recently, the fact that he'd be facing two right-handed batters with the numbers Gerry posted. It overrode that if Dominguez got two batters, he could pitch around Naylor. It overrode that Raleigh is one of the best hitters in baseball and you, presumably, want your best reliever to face him, not the one who has been very mediocre recently.
In Little's last 21 innings, he has given up 19 hits, 16 BB, and 13 ER. Over the last 7 weeks, righties are hitting.500 against him. There are dozens of these stats. FIP over a handful of innings is pretty useless. He's been objectively awful for quite some time.
Did you just use 21 innings as a meaningful sample size in the very same sentence you mocked a 12.2ip sample size as meaningless?
To interject some better news in this excellent discussion, Springer’s x-ray is negative.
Win two games at home. Put it all behind you. Believe in yourselves.
Easy, right? Right? The lack of sleep must be distorting my brainwaves… just roll with this for now…
Easy, right? Right? The lack of sleep must be distorting my brainwaves… just roll with this for now…
Upon reflection... bases loaded, no one out? It would have been nice to get some runs there.
I think the scariest part in all of this is that if the Jays are leading by 1 in the 8th inning in Game 6, and Schneider feels like he wants a lefty in the game, then Little is going to get the ball again. There's no doubt in my mind. I hope the Jays bats stream roll the Mariners pitching in game 6 and hopefully 7 because 1 run games are not going to be advantageous to them. Schneider, as bad as he is with managing a bullpen, doesn't have the horses to play the bullpen game with the Mariners.
It still makes me laugh that people still actually call Schneider bad at managing after what he's done with this bullpen and team overall.
Hoffman was used with a 6-run lead because Schneider was managing scared, as he has been wont to do all season. It’s pretty obvious that Hoffman was coming into a one-run game in the 9th tonight.
I don’t understand why they announced Yesavage as the Game 6 starter before tonight’s game. I would have left him available as a super-high leverage option in Game 5, but they didn’t because they had full confidence in their bullpen.
As frustrating and nerve wracking as tonight was, I just want to point out how thoroughly entertaining the ballgame was.
I don’t understand why they announced Yesavage as the Game 6 starter before tonight’s game. I would have left him available as a super-high leverage option in Game 5, but they didn’t because they had full confidence in their bullpen.
As frustrating and nerve wracking as tonight was, I just want to point out how thoroughly entertaining the ballgame was.
Yes it's because the manager of our surprise ALCS team is scared and stupid, not because Hoffman has been terrible all year.
I can think John Schneider is a good manager (in considering all of the job duties of a manager) who made a terrible decision at the most crucial time.
Caleb Joseph put it nicely, who can you live with losing this game? If it's Dominguez who gave it up all by himself, that sucks, but he's clearly part of the core set of relievers you trust. I would have been disappointed, but because they lost the game.
Instead, it feels like the Jays just handed this game to Seattle by losing with their lesser weapons.
Caleb Joseph put it nicely, who can you live with losing this game? If it's Dominguez who gave it up all by himself, that sucks, but he's clearly part of the core set of relievers you trust. I would have been disappointed, but because they lost the game.
Instead, it feels like the Jays just handed this game to Seattle by losing with their lesser weapons.
has Hoffman been used in even one high leverage situation these playoffs?
Little should never have been used in such a high leverage situation but Schneider was always going to go there. It is what it is.
If Springer can go then I actually feel pretty good about winning the series. But for the pen implosion, I think the Jays pretty handily outplayed the Mariners the last three games. Even today.
If Springer can go then I actually feel pretty good about winning the series. But for the pen implosion, I think the Jays pretty handily outplayed the Mariners the last three games. Even today.
Well, the closest game they have played was a two-run loss to Seattle, in which he pitched.
Their closest win was a three run victory over the Yankees and he pitched more than an inning.
I'm not sure how much clearly Schneider could demonstrate he trusts Hoffman at the back-end of close games.
Their closest win was a three run victory over the Yankees and he pitched more than an inning.
I'm not sure how much clearly Schneider could demonstrate he trusts Hoffman at the back-end of close games.
I agree with Nigel. If Springer is good to go, then I actually like the Jays chances of winning this series, but if the games are close, then that's where some of my skepticism creeps in.
In that "close" game vs the yankees, 7 relievers were used while the game was within 3 runs, and hoffman was the 8th and only reliever to pitch with a 4 run lead, and promptly gave up 2 hits a walk and a run.
Schneider doesn't use Hoffman like a relief ace. If that's what you are arguing, we agree.
The closest thing they have had to a save is the ninth inning of a home game they were down by two, and he pitched that. I'm not sure how you can conclude he doesn't trust him.
If there's a save opportunity on Sunday, I feel very confident he'll get it.
The closest thing they have had to a save is the ninth inning of a home game they were down by two, and he pitched that. I'm not sure how you can conclude he doesn't trust him.
If there's a save opportunity on Sunday, I feel very confident he'll get it.
Ugly - Hoffman has been CONSIDERABLY better than Little for a ~month now. He has given up just 2 runs in his last ~14 outings. Yes, some of those outings had walks surrendered - but even those are nowhere near Little's issue with walks and losing the strike-zone.
There is zero excuse for this. The red dumbo went with the sketchiest reliever in the entire bullpen. A guy who hasn't thrown a strike in ~2 months. Hitters have clearly figured out that you just sit middle-middle and don't swing otherwise, because he WILL walk you.
There is zero excuse for this. The red dumbo went with the sketchiest reliever in the entire bullpen. A guy who hasn't thrown a strike in ~2 months. Hitters have clearly figured out that you just sit middle-middle and don't swing otherwise, because he WILL walk you.
Agree if Springer is healthy, Jays are still in a good spot. Need the dominant Yesavage to show up. Schneider has managed this way all year. He acts as if his relievers are way better than they are. It's so odd because I loved seeing Hoffman facing heart of lineup yeatrday even if it was the 8th. Thats the way to do it and Schneider hasn't really done that all year. Just so crazy he did it in a 7-2 game and not a 2-1 game.
Sept/Oct
Hoffman: 10.2ip, 1.37lvg, 17.8k%, 15.6b%, 0.84era, 5.10fip, 5.76xfip
Little: 9.2ip, 1.21lvg, 25.0k%, 15.0b%, 2.79era, 2.93fip, 3.73xfip
Hoffman: 10.2ip, 1.37lvg, 17.8k%, 15.6b%, 0.84era, 5.10fip, 5.76xfip
Little: 9.2ip, 1.21lvg, 25.0k%, 15.0b%, 2.79era, 2.93fip, 3.73xfip
Why is the debate between Little or Hoffman? Hoffman has looked better in the playoffs, but the three guys who have been bad the last couple of months are Little, Hoffman and Rodriguez. Based on merit, Fisher or Dominguez were the choice but Schneider was always going to go with Little and Hoffman in the 9th. So you have to just live with it. Schneider has had an absolute mountain of head scratching (and in many cases hard to justify) decisions work out this year. You can’t expect every single one to go your way.
Because Hoffman is probably their best reliever when he's throwing his good stuff. Dominguez, like most Jays relievers has been hidden from opponents that would give them trouble (in his example, lefties). The same way Little throws a lot of 0.1 and 0.2 innings. Hoffman is not treated like that.
Just curious uglyone - let’s pretend Little cruises through the 8th inning. Who do you think was coming in to pitch the 9th?
They may not use Hoffman that way but he’s been crushed by LHH all year. They’ve slugged .500 against him.
As much as I think Little was a mistake to bring in, the real reason they lost this very winnable game wasn't the pitching, it was the failure to convert on the offensive chances.
For the first 7.5 innings of this game Toronto looked like a much, much better team with better PA, betting hitting, and better pitching (and some help from the Umpire on Balls/Strikes for Gausman). But a lot of the luck seemed to go Seattle's way and the line drive double play was bad, and the bases loaded 0 outs end up with 0 runs was really bad. Also, Seattle feeling fine waling Vlad and mostly not punished showed how much we miss Bo being in the lineup.
Still if someone said we'd win 2/3 in Seattle this series, I think we'd all feel pretty good about our chances, and we still have good chances to win the series.
If all games are 50/50 the Jays would have 25% chance, but they are at home and that should count for something. Also, the broadcast noted that in 7 game series that were tied 2-2 the team that won game 5 have won 69% of the series, which suggests less than the 50/50 odds would suggest (which is surprising because historically you might expect the team that wins game 5 to be the "better" team, but also maybe the home team wins game 5 more, and the team at home for game 6 and 7 has that advantage and also might be the better team). So the Jays are probably somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 chance of winning the series, which is better than it was after game 2.
It is also a little like the end of the regular season when the Jays just needed to win out at home to keep the division ahead of the Yankees. We can certainly succeed again with that.
For the first 7.5 innings of this game Toronto looked like a much, much better team with better PA, betting hitting, and better pitching (and some help from the Umpire on Balls/Strikes for Gausman). But a lot of the luck seemed to go Seattle's way and the line drive double play was bad, and the bases loaded 0 outs end up with 0 runs was really bad. Also, Seattle feeling fine waling Vlad and mostly not punished showed how much we miss Bo being in the lineup.
Still if someone said we'd win 2/3 in Seattle this series, I think we'd all feel pretty good about our chances, and we still have good chances to win the series.
If all games are 50/50 the Jays would have 25% chance, but they are at home and that should count for something. Also, the broadcast noted that in 7 game series that were tied 2-2 the team that won game 5 have won 69% of the series, which suggests less than the 50/50 odds would suggest (which is surprising because historically you might expect the team that wins game 5 to be the "better" team, but also maybe the home team wins game 5 more, and the team at home for game 6 and 7 has that advantage and also might be the better team). So the Jays are probably somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 chance of winning the series, which is better than it was after game 2.
It is also a little like the end of the regular season when the Jays just needed to win out at home to keep the division ahead of the Yankees. We can certainly succeed again with that.