I don't like this from a pure baseball perspective, I don't think Vlad will deliver that much value.

I see the benefit from a marketing and fan perspective. The fans love Vlad and he is a home grown talent. So keeping him is good PR for the team and good for ticket sales.

Glad it's done partly because it means no rebuild now. Jays will try to win every year and even though it might not be the best direction for the franchise, it is is more fun as a fan trying to compete.

Now he just needs to earn that money.
And the fans need to buy more tickets.

Will it affect Bichette? I don't see Bo coming back.
On paper, it's not too hard to replace him with a better defender and compensate with an offensive third baseman.

No more stupid Guerrero trade rumours.
That's a huge plus.
Also, a team cannot afford too many contracts like this, so maybe the Jays won't be in on every free agents.

Btw, Biggio is still in the site banner.
How about replacing him with Gimenez or Santander?

Despite getting swept, I see the Jays jumping on some power ranking boards because they were assuming the Jays were going to go into a fire sale at the trade deadline.

I suspect some silent censorious shenanigans going on. Are posts about baseball writing and writers not baseball discussion? It does seems against the original intention of this site. I quote from the About section:

Pop quiz: Batter's Box is:

a. an interactive online magazine of baseball commentary and analysis
b. source of daily original insight into Blue Jay major- and minor-league clubs
c. peña or marketplace of intelligent and literate discussion about baseball

The answer, of course, is: all of the above!*

I don't think the "lifetime" narrative is going to happen. If he's still playing by age 32, I don't think it's with the Jays.

I remember during the Gord Ash era there was a rule against contracts longer than 3 years.

I don't think he can be moved with that contract.
That contract becomes worse every year.

Some fans will be mollified. Others will be (rightfully, IMHO) upset about the waste of $$. Some people still complain that Mitch Marner signed his last extension for ~$1M too much per year, 6 years later.

Maybe we should have a "lifetime WAR value" poll or something? I'll take the under on $350M of lifetime value. May replace Vernon Wells as "worst long-term contract ever given to a Blue Jay" at some point. Maybe it's the futility of the top-3 batters so far making me extra ornery, including Vlad with a 91 OPS+..

Vlad apparently has a full no trade clause, and no team is going to trade for that contract regardless, so this is pretty much a 'lifetime' contract.

I don't like it from a baseball standpoint. The AAV is fine, but 14 years is way too long, and they are more than likely going to be getting a bunch of bad seasons towards the back end while still giving him 500 PA a year due to his name. If he had Juan Soto's offensive track record, then I could live with it, but 2 great offensive seasons in 6 years, combined with no value aside from his bat? That's a tough sell.

Either way, this is clearly on the FO. Not the contract, I think Rogers' fingerprints are all over that, but feeling like they needed to overpay Vlad in the first place is on the FO for not building a better long-term roster. I guess rebuilding is out of the question anytime soon, which is fine, but they better be developing some talent in the next few years to surround Vlad with. Obviously, win a World Series in 1 of the next 14 years. That should be the goal.

This isn’t what I would have done but, full credit to the FO, this does bring some coherence to the moves of the offseason. For better or for worse, at least the speculation and direction of the team is resolved (to a reasonable degree).

I wonder if this would have gotten done if Vladdy’s first 10 games this year looked like 2024 and not 2023?

This year's draft pick will be very important, but they will always have the option of making trades like the one that brought Chapman here or signing guys like Santander and Bassitt.

christaylor: I am not sure what your point is about censorious shananigans.

I am not aware of anything being censored.

Awful contract. Doesn't mean I wouldn't have done it. Here is what I need to feel better about this decision as a fan:

Vlad to be elite more often than pumpkin. That means a steady bat, clutch hitting and generally great results against good pitching. I want to see 40 HR power most of the next 8 years. I hope to see him reach his potential without the weight of a payday and contract on his mind.

Bo Bichette to resign with the team as he said he wants to play with Vlad for the rest of his career. Resigning Vlad to an overpay makes more sense if it means Bo and other players in MLB want to stay here.

Essentially, I hope this contract elevates he team overall by attracting better free agents and players to stay here. That will be a win unlike the "marketing" play that is often cited as reason enough to overpay Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Lots of money coming off the books next year. Will be very interesting to see if they trade for more players like Gimenez, sign big free agents, wait on farm or both.

Nigel I agree that coherency is closer now with Vlad signed and off season targets like Soto and Ohtani out of the picture. Now they must build around Vlad without the possibility of "yeah but we can pass on Vlad and get Soto or Ohtani." I hope the past off seasons were bumpy and slow because they never had a core player locked up long term and were always working backwards from possible Ohtani and Soto signings, pivoting as necessary.

I disagree that this is an "untradeable contract". Those are the players that become available. A productive young player on a cheap contract is the one that's never traded, because, while there's demand, there's not going to be any supply. The teams Vlad would exclude would not have the capital to pay him. I'm sure he'd agree to play for the Mets or Dodgers.

It's the bad contracts, no matter the size, that end up getting traded more frequently in all sports.

Maybe I am looking in the wrong thread or imagined it but seems the posts discussing Ken Rosenthal have disappeared.

I grew up an Expos fan. I think we're very lucky to have an owner who is willing to clearly overpay for a superstar player and can confidently take on a 14-year commitment. That being said, I'm sure that some very intelligent people at Rogers have analyzed and modeled out the future franchise & related Rogers media value with and without Vlady. This is as much of a business decision as it is a baseball decision... and I think the franchise was headed for some bleak years if they had let both Vlady and Bo walk away.

Hmm... good question on 'big contracts here'.

• Vernon Wells - worst case? - $126 mil signed Aug 8th, 2007. His 2006 was his best season (6.2 WAR, 129 OPS+ gold glove in CF) but his 3 previous were 3.2 4.5 4.5 bWAR with 2 more gold gloves so it didn't seem to be a nightmare deal. He was in his age 28 season and having a poor one (1.4 bWAR 85 OPS+). His age 29 season was better (2.0 123 OPS+) but age 30 was ugly 86 OPS+ 0.9 WAR, then he had a rebound dead cat year 4.0 WAR 125 OPS+ and AA did his best trade - dumping Wells on the Angels without paying a penny of his remaining contract. His next 3 seasons he hit 81 OPS+ -0.2 WAR for the Angels & Yankees for $89.1875 million. Ouch. Jays paid him $42,201,000 total for 28.7 WAR.
• Carlos Delgado - $68 mil for 4 years which was a record for per year at the time (lasted a month or so before being shattered by A-Rod) October 20, 2000 before his age 29 season. He hit well, 2nd in MVP voting in '03, 18.2 bWAR, OPS+ of 146-147-161-129 over those 4 years. He clearly lived up to expectations, but the Jays were broke then (badly run to put it mildly). so he was allowed to leave as a free agent to Miami and played 5 seasons, had a 161 OPS+ his first year away, 143 his final ML season in just 26 games (hurt, ended up being career ending) $60 mil for that, but his poor defense led to just 7.6 WAR (2.8 with that 161 OPS+, not easy, but his D was ugly and the NL didn't have a DH then). So it worked out well for the Jays, but a Vlad type deal for ages 27-40 would've been for 36.6 bWAR 368 HR, 1572 hits.
• George Springer has the biggest contract pre-Vlad at $150 mil for 6 years. 10.2 bWAR 114 OPS+ though is much worse than hoped for with this year and next to go. Injuries and flopping when moved to RF cost him. Plus the deal was signed for ages 31-36.

I'm sure there are other big deals (Dave Stieb, but that was pitching and a bit odd - 10 year deal at first, then the Jays voluntarily ripped it up and gave him a better deal just before his arm went kablam). But those are the ones that came to mind right away.

Apologies, my bad! They are in the other thread. Mea culpa.

this was so damn necessary thank god it happened.

and no, this doesn't give Rogers any excuse to insinuate anything about any payroll issues for any of the next 14 yrs. they can afford the sunk cost.

The contract shows that “going year-to-year” with players in their years before free agency — an approach that Shapiro and Atkins have often touted with the Blue Jays — occasionally has downsides. Sometimes you just keep losing leverage and eventually have to capitulate and hand out a massive contract to a popular star player.

I don't get the addiction to having to bring this contract back to a point of criticism of the front office as some type of lesson of how to avoid paying market value for a superstar when you maybe, some how could have gotten lucky and gotten a prime superstar for 30% less or more. "Sometimes you just keep losing leverage and eventually have to capitulate and hand out a massive contract to a popular star player." Sure. Sometimes the opposite happens as well so pointing out the fact that it could have been different is rather pointless unless you're simply trying to show how things could have turned out better. If Vlad becomes a top 3 player in MLB and his market value by end of year would have gotten him 650,000,000 are you going to come onto this board and tell everyone how this FO had the deal work out in their favour by going year to year? No, I don't think you will but if you did, what is the purpose of pointing out these realities all the time?

I'm going to anchor my opinion in line with Ugly more or less which I think is reasonable and practical. Sunk cost. Probably absolutely necessary for this team. Everyone wins. Nothing else to debate or complain about.

It's a lot of money, but then Rogers has a lot of money so I don't care all that much. They don't make this deal if they are worried about payroll austerity in the future. Unless someone forgets to tell the Orange Emperor that he isn't wearing any clothes, there is a good chance the CBT threshold is pushing $350M in 10 years time. As others have noted, it would behoove the Jays to develop players better than recently to maximize the next 10-12 years.

Ok, that was the crowning achievement for an offseason-and-a-bit that solidified their status now and going forward. Yes, it's an overpay, but as others are saying, that was a product of not getting a deal in place earlier. Now, without knowing/remembering details, I'm not going to say if those passes were right or wrong, but I would like to see them pushing the envelope earlier.

Now, if they could just get Bo locked in as well, I'd be a super-happy camper.

IMO this is a case of there was little chance of signing Vlad (or Bo) early. Neither had any interest in getting less than their maximum value, nor did they feel pressure for it due to their dad's making millions in the game before them (IE: generational wealth was already there). Kirk didn't have that leverage thus was able to be signed at a good price. Next on the list are Bo & Varsho - but I don't see Bo being signed anytime soon, he has to reestablish himself as a 120 OPS+ guy (currently in the low 100's) to be worth the money I suspect he wants. If he'll sign cheap, sure why not? But I'd bet against that strongly. I could easily see him signing a 1-2 year deal this winter to rebuild value if he doesn't have a 3-4 WAR year.
Plus, unlike Vlad, the Jays have prospects coming up behind Bo who could be ready for 2026 in Jimenez and Kasevich with superstar potential in Nimmala (a few years away).

I like this move. And also, as mentioned in an earlier thread, I saw it happening in advance via my CS time machine.

One benefit of the contract is that we won’t have to see Vladdy play for the Yankees (a plausible alternative destination for him) for the next decade.

This is just the cost of doing business. We assume it will age badly, and it certainly might, but in fourteen years the eighth man in the bullpen might be pulling down $20 million a year.

For 2025 - how can this FO quickly improve this ball club with maximum impact this early in the season? I've taken a look at available LHP arms and it does not appear there are any to trade for.

To Magpie's point - given that almost every major bank's economic outlook is for the base case (ie. the lowest) inflation rate for the US in the current tariff war is 5%, there is a decent chance that inflation is going to make this look cheap pretty quickly.

If this means that Rogers is going to keep spending at a 'top 5 in MLB' level, then I'm fine with it. Whether it's a good contract or not is irrelevant at this point. They made the deal. Now they have to build around it. They will need to spend big over the first half of Vlad's deal because that figures to be the best years they will get from him, so make them count. Hopefully that doesn't mean overpaying Bichette, too. They need to aim higher.

One thing that I like is that the Jays are going back to a more Latin focused roster (Vlad, Gimenez, Kirk, Santander), whether by design or circumstance. With all the stuff going on in the world, it would be smart to focus on that market (and Asia if a player is willing to go somewhere other than the Dodgers) and really cement the team in that way. Get a competitive advantage wherever you can.

Cot's has 'full no trade protection' as a part of Vlad's deal (no shock there).

So for 2029 these are your Toronto Blue Jays: Vlad, Gimenez, Santander, Kirk - $76.229 mil total. Plus anyone 1st year MLB right now (Wagner, Roden). Everyone else will need to be signed by then or traded for or promoted.

On the gross side of the news - the Dodgers went to the White House and met with Trump. Guess booing them now will be a LOT easier.

This deal is definitely not in the "sweet spot of sharing risk", and we will be lucky if it doesn't look brutal halfway through it. Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, and Fielder were all mediocre by like 35, if they even made it there. The Jays gained very little by not just waiting until he was a FA, similar to what happened with Wells and Berrios. At worst (an MVP season this year), he would have made what, an extra 10MM a year?

Well, the Blue Jays probably gained a few things: 1) increased ticket, television and internet revenues in 2025 and beyond, 2) increased contentment on the part of Santander (and any other players who were told Vladdy would be extended), and 3) better ability to pursue FAs in the off-season (during what otherwise would have been a period of uncertainty about where Vladdy would sign) as well as summer trade targets (for example, a good veteran with a no-trade clause who might now be interested in going to Toronto).

While Vlad is unlikely to be near as good 12-14 years from now as he is now, the cost of normal baseball players and the cost of dollars 12-14 years from now is likely to be less too. By the end of this contract it is very likely the salary is 1/2 and maybe even 1/3 as costly in terms of both normal inflation (especially in a post Trump, post tarriff, aging boomer demographics) and baseball inflation.

You also have to pay/over pay for talent (at least once they are Free Agent eligible). Is Vlad a top 5 talent in MLB? Not right now (although he has that upside). Is he top 30 talent? Probably. Top 50? Near certain.

Drafting that sort of talent is best. Locking it up early is next best. Locking it up late is better than losing it. We've seen how with top stars in the past off season how even if you're willing to pay them a lot, they might not sign with you (and they'll still cost a lot). So the notion that it is easy to get top talent under value is not true.

The deal will certainly suck if Vlad turns into a pumpkin by age 30 and is below average by 30. That is possible, but unlikely.

I'd say over the next 14 years you probably expect something like 2-3 great years (like his best 2 to date), 3-5 good years, 3-5 league average years, 1-6 replacement level or injured or retired years - not necessarily in that order. With both upside of more greatness, and downside of less great/good, but that these are reasonable expectations. His pay is something like 10 good and 4 league average years, so there's certainly probably more years where he's paid more than he's worth, but in the good years when he's about fair value and the great years where he's underpaid to value you hope that is enough to mostly make up the average to bad years where he's overpaid.

"At worst (an MVP season this year), he would have made what, an extra 10MM a year?"

I think you need to look at what the worse case scenario would be if he was signed to a "cheaper" deal earlier in his career had he not panned out. It's easy to assume that you get the best version of Vlad for 330 million or so, and therefore this deal looks worse because it could have been much better for the FO. That's unreasonable though because it assumes the FO and player were not going through the same challenges that they actually were which was a superstar player underperforming expectations at that time. Had Vlad played up to expectations in 2022 and 2023 he likely would have been signed for 350-400 million because there was less risk for him and the front office. It's very selective to pretend otherwise.

It's only reasonable to assume the worst case of that same hypothetical existed which is a .780-.820 OPS and 25HR-30HR hitter that Vlad was in 2022 and 2023 which ins 2022 and 2023 was not worth 300-400 million over 10+ years.

The reason he is getting 500 million now instead of being on year 2nd or 3rd year a 330 million deal is because his performance and the market did not warrant a player making that type of money for that performance. Simple.

If you were one of 0 people shouting from the rooftops for Vlad to be locked up to a record setting 350-400 million dollar deal in 2023 then sure, have at it. Otherwise save us all the insight!

Not sure what you're missing here, dalimon5. Vladdy didn't deserve 350-400 in 2023, and he doesn't deserve 500 now. There simply is not enough evidence that he is one of the very elite bats in the game.

Best hitters since 2021:

* 1. Judge (29-33): 190wrc+
* 2. Ohtani (26-30): 163wrc+
* 3. Alvarez (23-27): 163wrc+
* 4. Soto (22-26): 161wrc+
* 5. Trout (29-33): 158wrc+
* 6. Harper (28-32): 150wrc+
* 7. Freeman (31-35): 149wrc+
* 8. Betts (28-32): 147wrc+
* 9. Tucker (24-28): 147wrc+
* 10. Guerrero (22-26): 144wrc+
* 11. Acuna (23-27): 144wrc+

92, you can ignore the quote at the top of my post. Not meant to be part of my rant of course. I had a longer post with your quote and some others summarizing some of the comments for and against criticizing front office for waiting until now to sign him (vs a few years earlier). I deleted most of the post but not that quote by mistake.

Battersbox, mobile phone and large thumbs... add shortage of patience. My apologies.

Thanks for demonstrating my point, uglyone!

And that’s even including the year he was only elite in minor league parks. For full context, it would have been helpful to extend that list down to #20, where you’ll find guys that people in here were relieved the Jays didn’t give them 4/80.

He's worth the 14/500 because he got it. If he'd left as a free agent, he'd have gotten even more, because there would have been a bidding war.

"I'm going to anchor my opinion in line with Ugly more or less which I think is reasonable and practical. Sunk cost. Probably absolutely necessary for this team. Everyone wins. Nothing else to debate or complain about."

Well said. I aligned w/ this as well.

your wish is my command.


Best hitters since 2021:

* 1. Judge (29-33): 2534pa, 190wrc+
* 2. Ohtani (26-30): 2685pa, 163wrc+
* 3. Alvarez (23-27): 2329pa, 163wrc+
* 4. Soto (22-26): 2778pa, 161wrc+
* 5. Trout (29-33): 1173pa, 158wrc+
* 6. Harper (28-32): 2242pa, 150wrc+
* 7. Freeman (31-35): 2783pa, 149wrc+
* 8. Betts (28-32): 2433pa, 147wrc+
* 9. Tucker (24-28): 2248pa, 147wrc+
* 10. Guerrero (22-26): 2828pa, 144wrc+
* 11. Acuna (23-27): 1850pa, 144wrc+
* 12. Altuve (31-35): 2415pa, 142wrc+
* 13. Seager (27-31): 2172pa, 141wrc+
* 14. Henderson (21-24): 1486pa, 137wrc+
* 15. Ramirez (28-32): 2726pa, 137wrc+
* 16. Olson (27-31): 2815pa, 137wrc+
* 17. Tatis (22-26): 1664pa, 134wrc+
* 18. Belt (33-35): 1083pa, 134wrc+
* 19. Rooker (26-30): 1435pa, 133wrc+
* 20. Goldschmidt (33-37): 2709pa, 133wrc+
* 21. Diaz (29-33): 2360pa, 133wrc+
* 22. Devers (24-28): 2582pa, 133wrc+
* 23. Buxton (27-31): 1406pa, 132wrc+
* 24. Schwarber (28-32): 2593pa, 132wrc+
* 25. Riley (24-28): 2577pa, 131wrc+

Yes and if the front office hadn't extended or signed Vladdy, the Blue Jays would likely be looking at a significant rebuild, with few high-quality free agents inclined to come to Toronto for at least 2-3 years. There are a lot of reasons why the organization needed to hold on to Vladdy.

Spoke to Bo Bichette about a possible extension of his own, and winning championships with Guerrero Jr.:

"has been my goal since I was a kid.. to be with one organization my whole career, and building a winning culture with Vladdy, but nothing's on the table right now"#BlueJays

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) April 7, 2025

I'm not sure the front office is looking to re-sign Bo but even if they are, he's impossible to value now. Great but flawed player for years and maybe worst everyday player in baseball last year with skills that probably don't age well. Give him a couple of months and I think there may be more clarity to his value.

First I would like to say I also am very happy Vlad signed long term with Toronto for all the reasons already stated and despite my criticisms of Vlad and Bo they will both be the nucleus of the Blue Jays for a long time. They are just too good to let go. Oh, I haven't said yet, but I firmly believe Bo is going to resign also, I think all the MSM about him being unhappy in Toronto and leaving were exaggerated. Now with Vlad signed to me it's almost a given. If they and Toronto have a good year.... book it.

Just saw Bo get robbed of extra bases again, is there any player so far this year who has been robbed of hit's more than Bo?

He's worth the 14/500 because he got it. If he'd left as a free agent, he'd have gotten even more, because there would have been a bidding war.

Because the bidding war for Alonso was so intense and he got $400M+? Oh wait, there was essentially no interest in him outside of the Mets.

There can be only so many bidding wars, and only so many for 1Bmen that are highly likely to age poorly. No way he gets "MORE" in free agency, unless he has some other-worldly 10+ WAR season. And he's not exactly "on fire" right now.

This was a case of FOMO by the Jays, with some damage control for missing out on Ohtani and Soto sprinkled in.

As much as I’ve complained about the player and think they should have traded him post 2021, this is the horse they hitched themselves to and I think the risk had to be taken. It would have certainly meant half a decade in the wilderness otherwise.

I would feel a lot better if Vlad started on fire again or at least had a homer yet. I think his health will determine how well this contract is regarded. The maturity issues that bugged me before are hopefully in the past. I hope for the sake of the city he lives up to this deal.

If you use wRC since 2020 there are 24 with 400+ wRC. The list is:

1 Soto 584
2 Judge 579
3 Freeman 563
4 Ohtani 542
5 Vlad 516
6 Olson 493
7 Ramirez 485
8 Betts 475
9 Goldschmidt 473
10 Harper 458
11 Devers 454
12 Turner 450
13 Alonso 449
14 Alvarez 443
15 Schwarber 441
16 Riley 436
17 Machado 433
18 Semien 428
19 Altuve 419
20 Tucker 418
21 Reynolds 414
22 Lindor 410
23 Teoscar 405
24 Seager 403

See https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/most-mlb-wrc-since-2020 for the list. Given ages and everything it isn't unreasonable to bet on Vlad, and you certainly can understand him being worth significantly more than Alonso being both significantly younger and significantly better.

I know Vlad is graded as a bad defender (although my eye thinks he looks quite reasonable at 1b), and he is not slim, but still this is a 26 year old who already has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball over the past few years despite our seeing him as inconsistent. Don't fixate on what he doesn't do, look at all he does.

I don't know much about wRC but Vladdy wasn't good in 2020 so if your list looks drastically different than uglyone's, the methodology is probably way off.

If you remove 2021, the year they played in a kiddie park, and run wRC (and WAR) for the last 3 seasons you will see Guerrero Jr. come in behind Yandy Diaz. The Rays just locked up Diaz's 2027 season for 13MM. Hopefully we get to watch an MVP-calibre hitter for the first half of this contract, and not the merely good hitter that he was in 2022-2023.

wRC is a cumulative stat (like hits or homers), wRC+ is a rate stat (like avg or ops).

I suppose we should just ignore Vlad's 2021 away park split of 143 wRC+?

No need to ignore it, Joe. That kind of production at 1B puts him in a completely different price point.

Probably yeah.

Vlad career:

* Home 137wrc+
* Away 136wrc+

Vlad since 2021

* Home 149wrc+
* Away 141wrc+

Since 2023

* Home 133wrc+
* Away 147wrc+




Worrying about one partial season home/away split from 5yrs ago is probably misguided tbh.

and of course remember wRC+ already adjusts for ballpark factors. If everyone hit the crap out of that ballpark, then wRC+ adjusts for that. So there's really no reason to look at it.

Of course, while adjusting for park effects, wRC+ doesn't reflect that parks impact individual hitters differently. I think that we have seen enough of Vladdy to know that he is at his best when he is not trying to pull everything and driving the ball to center and right center. The fact that there was a gale every night in Dunedin blowing out to right center benefitted Vladdy more than some others. Conversely, the Rogers stadium renovations that seem to have made the ball carry less well to right seem to have more negatively impacted Vladdy. Vladdy would have been a nightmare playing 81 home games a year in Yankee Stadium.

I would think vladdy's all-fields approach in both contact and power would leave him less effected by those kinds of specific factors than most anyone tbh.

I also think both rate stats and counting stats make sense in evaluating players long term as health and ability to play more games is part of the skills/package. And regardless of Vlad's body type, he's been able to play the games without much missed time in a way not everyone has. So that is another point in his favor that counting stats make more clear.

Yeah agreed the counting stats matter too in a case like this.

Lots of the guys with better wRC+ than vladdy on my lists did that in many fewer PA - even half the PA - whixh absolutely matters.

What will be interesting is seeing how all these mega contracts work out over the next decade. Via Cot's here are the 10 biggest dollar deals in MLB history - I added in seasons of 150+ games so far.

1. Juan Soto, $765,000,000 (2025-39) (150G: 5)
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., $500,000,000 (2026-39) (150G: 4)
3. Shohei Ohtani, $460,814,765 (2024-33) (reduced for deferrals) (150G: 3)
4. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30) (150G: 4)
5. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32) (150G: 4)
6. Aaron Judge, $360,000,000 (2023-31) (150G: 3)
7. Manny Machado, $350,000,000 (2023-33) (150G: 9)
8. Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31) (150G: 6)
9. Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34) (150G: 0)
10. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31) (150G: 3)

Of those 10 Machado is #1 at 9, then Lindor 6, Soto 5, Vlad/Trout/Betts 4, Ohtani/Harper/Judge 3, and Tatis hasn't had a 150 game season yet. Everyone of them missed 2020 of course with a max of 60, Machado was short 2 of his first 3 seasons, plus '23 at age 30 but has age 33-40 left on his deal at $39 mil per. Vlad only missed 2020 and his rookie season (the mandatory down for 2 months to get an extra year of control). $500/14 = $35.7 per year after this season. So SD will pay Machado more per year than Vlad will get through age 40. Machado is seen as a likely burden on SD soon due to age but clearly not health. Harper, Judge, and Ohtani are all high risks of being paid a lot to be in recovery. Health is a skill and some players just don't have it (Trout) while others do (Machado). When doing a 10+ year deal you want a guy who will be healthy and Vlad has been just that. The Yankees and Dodgers will get WOW production from Ohtani and Judge, but have to live with no production for long stretches as well.

Belated comment, but while I certainly hope it will work out from a baseball production standpoint, I am doubtful. But I don't think that's why they signed him to this deal - it's a marketing deal as much as anything, to have a face of the franchise, to have kids grow up with Vlad, and if everything works out, to have a home-grown HOF player. Even if Vladdy disappoints but remains a pretty good hitter, I can see it working out from a marketing point of view. And as a side benefit, I think it probably makes Toronto a more attractive landing spot for free agents.

More details came out today now that it is official: $325 mil signing bonus (WOW) paid out in annual instalments - by doing it this way he pays Florida income tax on it (0%) instead of paying a mix of Canadian and US taxes. Plus for Vlad a big plus is he gets that even if there is a strike or lockout. So basically in the end that bonus is a paperwork work around taxes which I suspect the Jays will do more of in the future to get free agents to come here (often these mega rich people want to hold onto every penny like Scrooge, they will do anything to avoid taxes).

Jim Bowden thinks the Blue Jays could have signed Vladdy for $300m or so a couple of years ago. Big markup between then and now.

Seems the final details are out...

Adding together salary and signing bonus, the new deal will pay Guerrero $528.5 million over 15 seasons: $48.5 million this year, $30 million in 2026, $31 million in 2027, $32 million in 2028, $33 million in 2029, $34.5 million annually from 2030-36, $36 million in 2037, $37.5 million in 2038 and $39 million in 2039.

He would earn a $150,000 bonus for winning an MVP award, $125,000 for finishing second in the voting, $100,000 for third, $75,000 for fourth and $50,000 for fifth.

Guerrero would get $50,000 each for making the All-Star team or winning World Series MVP, a Gold Glove award or a Silver Slugger. He would get $25,000 for League Championship Series MVP.

Toronto will provide four seats for all regular-season home games and a luxury suite at a discounted rate, subject to availability, for all regular-season and postseason home games.

He gets a full no-trade provision and a hotel suite on road trips.

Figured there would be more details. Nothing too 'what the heck' there though. I figure he'll get that ASG bonus every year pretty much (Toronto fans love to vote him in). Hoping he wins a couple of those WS MVP bonuses.