Sure hope we didn't burn that Bo bridge.

Is it a bridge or Bo asking for crazy money now?

Think FA prices just went up. I'd try for Bo but like Tucker, would be fine not going in if it's crazy. Jays have a great team right now.

Someone in the other thread called this a wild overpay but I honestly don’t think it is. Tucker is primed to have a few very good years in the short term. It’s only a four-year contract. Yes, it’s a lot of money but it’s also going to make the Dodgers a lot of money by helping ensure their dominance in the coming seasons. Let’s say Tucker averages 4 or 4.5 WAR per year over the next four years. How much are the marginal wins he’ll provide worth to LA? A lot, I would think.

Pretty decent chance Tucker comes away with a WS ring during the four years.

Now watch LAD trade for Skubal at the deadline.

Agreed uglyone - Bo will now be asking for more I'm sure though than he would've a couple months ago as he has serious suitors and knows he is the last big name out there (Bellinger is lesser imo but the Jays could sign both if they wanted). I'm expecting Bo to get $30 mil per for 5+ years. I thought $26 per over 8 was likely before ($208 mil) but now $30 over 8 is possible ($240 mil). If he'll take some as deferred (I don't think he has to) then you can cut that AAV down, or if he'll add years that are write offs for minimal extra cost then they might push it up to $250 mil for 10 or something like that. Hard to see them going to $300 over any time frame though.

Bellinger has to be feeling more confident in his demand for a 7-year contract at around $36m per year.

Hard to say.
That's a lot of left bats.
That could backfire easily.

Get Bo and Bellinger and blast baseballs

Or just a bigger 4 year contract.
It looks like neither Mets or Yankees want to go long.

I would be happy with Bo or Bellinger being added. Tucker is the superior talent but the other two are very good players.

Am still curious to see if the Blue Jays work the trade route for someone like Donovan, Marte or Kwan.

I’d honestly be fine with standing reasonably pat and taking my chances. Lineup feels one bat short but there’s depth there. Obviously if a reunion with Bo is possible then go for it but it’s also possible his price just went up as well.

Who’s to say Bo won’t join the Dodgers next?

Bellinger wasn't great outside of Yankees Stadium.

Common sense?

Looking at the Dodgers on FanGraphs and clicking on projections their 2B Tommy Edman doesn't look that good - sub 2 WAR projected (1.7 ZiPS mixed with Hyeseong Kim and his 0.3) so they might chase Bo as well. Insanity.

Still, no matter how one cuts it, the Jays are in good shape depending on where Bo, Bellinger, and Valdez go. If they go to the Red Sox, Yankees, and/or O's then it is an 'uh oh'. If Bo comes here and the other 2 go to the NL then it is smooth sailing. Those 3 are the last free agents projected to get 3+ WAR with Eugenio Suárez next at 2.6, Zac Gallen 2.4, and Chris Bassitt at 2.1 all others sub 2 (so not a solid regular, not an upgrade for the Jays). Once Valdez and Bassitt sign then the trade market for Berrios could open up a bit (those 2 are likely better and Bassitt cheaper than Berrios). Gallen will have trouble due to his having a QO attached coming off a meh season (1.1 fWAR) - he really should've taken that QO. Bellinger could fit here still, but no way I'd pay $30+ mil for 7 years for him. IMO it is Bo or a trade.

I believe Dan S on Fangraphs said the Blue Jays and Red Sox were about tied for in the ZIPS projections for the best team in the AL East (with the Yankees slightly behind). That was before Boston added a front-rotation SP in Suarez. So the Red Sox arguably now have the best team in the division (and they will likely add a third baseman or second baseman this off-season).

The competition will be fierce. Toronto is right there, but the goal should be to field the best team in the division.

Only $30M deferred. I like Tucker a lot but that's crazy money for him.

Oh agreed greenfrog. Still, the Jays could be even better than they already are on paper - Springer at 2.2 WAR seems low after last year (high after '24), Barger at 1.9 seems low too. If Santander is at a 107 OPS+ all year he won't be a regular I'd hope (1.3 WAR).

The big questions are - will Yesavage live up to the hype he earned last year? Will Ponce be solid or flop? Barger ready for prime time after his WOW playoff? Okamoto - will he adjust well to the majors? Lots to watch for once the season gets going. Any of those questions going negative could push the Jays down, any going positive could shoot them over the top. Plus will some kid/kids come up and wow us this year? Just over a month until pitchers/catchers report and about 6 weeks until spring games begin.

I’m seeing a lot of “bring on the lockout” sentiment on social media right now, and for the first time, I think I’m on that side as well. I love baseball and love that the current system is perfect for the Jays, but it sucks for baseball. Something has to be done about this, even if it hurts the Jays a bit. You can’t replace half the owners who don’t spend so they have to figure out another way to make the sport more exciting and engaging for all the fanbases.

It's not the fans who lock players out.
They could just boosts the luxury tax some more.
That money goes to the players and the small market teams.

Dodgers have a $413M payroll which is $100M more than the next team. With the luxury tax, Dodgers will be paying for Tucker more than like ten teams' entire payrolls.

Signing Bo would still make for a tremendous off-season for the Blue Jays.

Trading for Kwan would also be a nice plan B move, if the front office can pull it off.

Bo makes sense but I don't see another big move unless it's for a 2B/SS trade (that position gives them most flexibility to move guys around). I think Kwan is overrated as is but he'd be replacing Santander in OF which isn't a big enough upgrade to justify trading big prospects for him. Really hope they don't do a stupid massive pitch for Bellinger because they missed out on Tucker. Team is still best in AL. Try to get Bo but no need to panic.

Id be shocked if the new agreement doesn't have a new level of CBT for the Dodgers. Much like the first CBT was for just the Yankees, last for the Mets. The biggest spender does shift. I suspect the new level will be 200% or more plus more loss of draft picks and/or IFA money around $350 mil - beyond where anyone but the Dodgers go.

I also think deferred money needs to be addressed. Without the ridiculous deferrals, especially Ohtani's, none of this happens. Make a maximum % that can be deferred or a maximum number of years. It isn't hard and wouldn't matter to 99% of players.

That's just an insane deal, pretty sure whatever Jays offered is not better than that. I am a free market guy and dislike salary caps in general because that is just so bad for players but yea... I understand where the salary cap people are coming from especially now. With luxury tax, spending 120M a year on a player is just insane, paying 25M/WAR like it is NBD.

Not that unhappy about it, got beat fair and square. Now just gotta hope for some karmic bad luck on the Dodgers' part next couple years for spending like money grows on trees.

I must be the only one to not be all that enamored with Kwan. Whether or not the sign Bo (yes please) I'm open to the idea of adding someone to pair with Barger if they're not going to just throw him out there and let him develop his ability to hit lefties. But the short side of a platoon can be less expensive than Kwan (not a direct comp since Kwan himself is a lefty and would re-create the "where does Santander play, then?" problem). But there are so few really interesting options for that kind of role that Rob Refsnyder got a $6mm deal. Well, there's Miguel Andujar. Last three years he's pounded lefties.

That aside, if you miss on Bo, I'd expect them to be busy trying to swing a trade Donovan is the main one everyone talks about (assuming you believe them about Marte) but I'd be asking about CJ Abrams. Three years of control, 24 years old, 20 homer power and quite good splits vs. RHP so fits well in a platoon with Clement - and he is rated poorly as a defensive SS so the Nats won't miss his glove.

Fairly expensive? Given the available options are thin very likely so, but unless the price is like "Yesavage and Parker and someone else" then it might be a heckuuva pivot.

As for Tucker - it always felt kinda like a fantasy baseball move to me. I could objectively observe the ways he'd help the team and be happy had he signed but I had no emotional investment in it. Missing doesn't really hurt much. Bo, if they make an honest effort and lose will sting some because even while seeing his limitation, like most Jays fans I'm invested in the guy.

Absent re-signing him, everything else is just unemotional calculation.

early really to be talking about the next CBA, but maybe the way to think about a cap is as a proportional relationship to the median. Like, no more than 200% of last year's median payroll (for example) and then the tax penalties scaled similarly.

Austin Hayes is out there and he destroys lefties. (WRC+ of 155 and 166 against them last 2 years). He's a LF though so would force Santander to RF vs LHP.

There are two areas I think Jays can really improve on offense. One is athleticism. It's very easy to steal now. Jay are just a pretty slow team. Hard to improve this without major personnel changes though. The other is much better platoon usage. WRC+ is great but take for example, Lukes 103 vs Hays' 105. That's essentially the same but Hays is WAY more useful as a hitter if you use him right because of his massive splits. Lukes not having splits means he's way more useful as a flexible option but also, he'll never be a very good option to start. With lots of relievers, this is more valuable than it used to be I guess but still not enough IMO. Or take Schneider. Jays almost only played him against lefties even if he hit righties much better. Why? I don't know. Clement and Gimenez were both basically useless against same-sided pitchers but neither ever really sat (only when Gimenez was hurt). It just feels like is some extra offensive value than can be squeezed out both by getting a player or two with big platoon splits and secondly by deploying your players with splits properly.

The Mets offered 57M per year. It doesn't look like the Jays were in the conversation.
The Mets shipped out a good outfielder for no apparent reason and really need Bellinger now.
The Yankees still have some outfield prospects who can hit even if they don't field well at all.

At this point, it's Santander/Barger/Lukes fighting over the corners.
Clement projects for 3 WAR at 2B. 
The lineup should be OK as long as they don't bat Varsho and his low OBP too high.

That is a crazy deal for Tucker; however, wanting a lock out is a pretty crazy fan reaction.

In any conflict between the players and owners, fans should be on the side of the players not the owners. The players are mostly millionaires, the owners are mostly billionaires. Plus MLB players get a smaller share of revenue than in other major sports (less than 50%).

The problem with baseball IMHO isn't the Dodgers being the big spenders, it is the many teams that don't spend. Baseball is in more need of a salary floor (or relegation, or some way to punish teams that tank without trying) than of a salary cap.

I do hope the Jays can sign Bo still.

Michael that's not a problem as it's the Dodgers overbidding other teams. If they couldn't do that then other teams would be spending more.

With the crushing luxury tax and injury time factored, there's a pretty good chance the Dodgers end up paying about $1 mil per game played from Tucker. Remarkable.

I think it’s good to keep in mind that the Blue Jays have a really good off-season and that the top of the farm system is looking good. The organization is in good shape.

Would adding Bo make it a great off-season? Yes.

I guess for now we should just assume that the elite of the elite FAs — like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Freeman, Tucker — are probably headed to the Dodgers. The Blue Jays can still compete with the next tier of well-resourced teams for some very good FAs (and have done so, successfully).

It does show the value of going hard after your #1 choice early like they did with Cease. The longer it goes, the bigger the advantage for the Dodgers and Mets who both will go nuts on short term deals.

I agree with you Michael that teams not spending enough is a big problem but Dodgers have so much more money than anyone else that they can just outbid everyone. They are spending $100M a year more than the next highest spending team. You can say teams should spend more and they should but even if a team like the Pirates or Cleveland spent appropriately, they'd have a payroll of like $175 million maybe? How do you compete with a team spending $400M? Not to mention the built in advantages Dodgers already have (SoCal, lots of players from there, great weather, best place for Japanese players, huge Latino community etc...) so even when teams outbid Dodgers for players or have same offers, Dodgers usually get the guy anyway. Mets offered Yamamoto more, Jays had same offer for Ohtani. Sasaki could have chosen anywhere and chose LA. It's just a hugely unfair system right now. I don't want a cap but if you limit deferrals and make cost for going over third (or 4th?) cap even higher and add a floor you'll have a better league. Tucker to LA is like when Real Madrid signs the best Brazilian 18 year old for a record transfer fee and then puts them on the bench. Tucker is making more money than anyone in baseball and he's maybe the 4/5th best offensive player on the Dodgers. It's absurd.

It's not about a salary cap, it's about figuring out how to reasonably close the gap between biggest spenders and lowest ones. As mentioned, even if the Pirates and Guardians spent closer to their capabilities (without having to lose a ton of money in the process), it still wouldn't be near $200M, much less what the Dodgers are spending. I don't know what the answer is. You can't force cheap owners to sell their teams, but expecting them to lose a lot of money by overspending their revenues isn't reasonable either. If next winter wasn't the expiration of the CBA, then the off-season would be two months of the most boring dead time ever followed by Skubal signing with the Dodgers. Eventually that catches up to fans and it turns them away. MLB has to do something to close that gap, and like I said it sucks for us because the current system is perfect for this version of Rogers. The Jays could basically be the AL Dodgers with this system, but it still sucks for the league as a whole.

Back to the Jays, I agree it has still been a good off-season. Even very good. If they were to stand pat then I think they are still a playoff team in the AL. The lineup still feels one bat short though, and if they bring someone in then it has to be a significant upgrade. Steven Kwan is the most Blue Jays player I can think of, but a league average bat with good defense isn't what they need right now. They need a difference maker, and I hope it's not Bellinger because while he does provide some cover fro 2027 in case Varsho leaves, he's not going to be worth whatever contract Boras will get for him.

Very well said Glevin, and Michael I should add I agree in general.

I'm also realizing that the Dodgers are offering the most money each year. They outbid everyone on every key player. Imagine if Vlad was a free agent.

Last offer from the Yankees to Bellinger was for 155M/5 year.
They are now upping that--by adding an extra opt out.
I think the Mets can easily walk away with this one.

With Bichette, I think the Jays situation is a lot like what happened with Alonso.
A short term deal is possible, but they might not want to go long with a guy who doesn't have much of a defensive position and doesn't profile as a DH.

Tucker just got too expensive and I have no issues with the Jays walking away. Just sucks it was the Dodgers.

I don't see the need to do a long-term deal with Bo given his well documented injuries, etc. If he's open to a two-year contract maybe with an option out, sure, although it's an awkward fit defensively this year and into the future.

Time to look at potential trades for a young-ish OF with 3 or 4 years of control... and maybe another bullpen arms.

Marc do you have any update on Tiedeman? I heard his recovery was delayed and of course he didn't participate in the fall league this year.

Related question, who makes the biggest impact this year out of King, Ricky and Gage?

A salary cap is not coming to MLB anytime soon. The owners want one even less than the players. The economics of the MLB are completely different from the other three major sports.

I’m pretty sure that the Jays understood (rightly) a while ago that they were unlikely to be successful in the Tucker/Bo markets. I have no issue with them not chasing the kind of numbers it’s took and is going to take.

"I’m pretty sure that the Jays understood (rightly) a while ago that they were unlikely to be successful in the Tucker/Bo markets."

Except they spent a great deal of time meeting, courting and offering on Tucker which completely opposes your proposition. I think it's really simple, the Blue Jays wanted Tucker, offered him a ton of money and put their best foot forward but were outbid by the Dodgers who have less concerns about wasting money. Simple as that...no need to concoct narrative about the Blue Jays knowing all along that they weren't serious suitors and were only pretending to be. That notion makes no sense at all when you consider the facts - what they've spent on Vlad and Cease as well as the past three off seasons of failed signings.

If you offer 4 million on a home for the Bridle Path that was asking 3.5 million but then are blown away by a 6 million dollar offer which wins...does that mean that the home buyers knew all along that they were never seriously going to get a home in heh Bridle Path? The logic does not add up this way.

Adding on, I think the Blue Jays must have felt that their main competition would be the NYM 1. who Tucker must have felt are not as competitive as the Blue Jays going into 2026 and 2. Nobody would be offering a long term deal like they would and 3. The LAD have already spent so much and are tapped out as was the case for Juan Soto unless he considered a short term deal.

What the Blue Jays had working against them it seems is that the Los Angeles Dodgers don't care about AAV and Kyle Tucker wanted the highest AAV and was willing to take a short term deal.

Bichette has signed with the Mets. Three years, $126M.

Wow. Again.

I do wonder what the utility is of entering into the bidding on players that the Dodgers have interest in, given that their modus operandi appears to be to allow other teams to determine the market, and then come in once the dust has settled and use their financial might to make a markedly superior offer. Lots of resources - and most importantly, the resource of time - went into pursuing Tucker, with nothing to show for this most predictable of results. When they went all in on Ohtani, I could see a sliver of rationale behind it since it re-established the team as having serious ambitions, but I don’t think that has nearly as important post-2025. These guys know their business way better than I do, so I won’t criticize how they conduct it but I just say from the outside looking in it strikes me as a game I’d refuse to play.

If there's any silver lining to this it's that the Yankees are going to have to pay a mint if they want to keep Bellinger.

Bichette has signed with the Mets.

Will be interesting to see if he can adapt to third base. The middle infield positions will be occupied for the foreseeable future.

There's no other bats out there that i'm interested in tbh.

I don't see any clear upgrades left out there, definitely not any upgrades worth the price.

really sucks that even after the great season we had, we still have to see a homegrown star leave, when that could have been prevented years ago most likely.

ah well.

Bob Nightengale
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The Phillies had agreed to Bo Bichette’s request for a 7-year, $200 million deal last night and believed they would sign him until the Mets swooped in with their 3-year, $126 million offer after losing out in in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes.




So we weren't even willing to go 7/$200....which annoys me tbh.

It's ridiculous that they didn't bring him back for that.

I sure hope they know what they got in Okamoto and Ponce, because this offseason feels incredibly underwhelming.

Underwhelming off season, seriously?

Bo had a deal in place with the Phillies so it appears the Jays weren't interested in having Bo back more so than them not willing to pay that price.

So the dominoes have fallen and I won't complain that they should've or could've signed Bo as I think he was always going to test. Nonetheless the facts are laid bare and the team has had a very strong off season but also they have lost a key piece who as of now is not being replaced by anyone on the roster to make up the difference. The team loses one of the 5 players in the league who can hit 200 times in a year, a core player and as I mentioned in previous thread, at the end of the day it's a bit unacceptable to lost a top hitter without replacement. A+ off season has turned into B-ish off season for me but unlike others I am reading (not just here) I put the blame on the Mets and Dodgers for their severe overpays.

Blue Jays spend the 2nd most this off season (so far). They get awesome Okamoto and the ace in the market Dylan Cease.

Feels crappy now. Bo gone. Dodgers got best closer and best hitter. THANK GOODNESS they have Vladito...

Yes, seriously. I don't see their offseason as being strong, at all. I'm not a fan of paying up for relievers, and I think their offense is still very clearly a bat short. The only way this is a good offense is if Vladdy is the guy he was in the playoffs.

I'll be thrilled to be wrong and see Okamoto establish himself as a solid MLB regular, and for Ponce to be a key piece in the rotation.

I'm very curious to see if the Jays go after Bellinger. I hope not, but there is a logical fit there, especially with the others off the board. They badly need a hedge for 2027 in case Varsho leaves, and Bellinger (while he probably isn't a CF anymore ideally) provides that.

Hopefully there is a trade target that can fit that need better, though.

92-93 they're definitely a bat short to be "World Series ready" but they've still had a good off season in my books. Good off season and getting stronger offensively are mutually exclusive in this scenario now that Bo and Tucker are gone. I guess there is still Bellinger but who is going to want to spend 200 million on him for a long term deal or pay 35-40 million annually?

Dylan “Ace” Cease over the last 3 years has an ERA+ of 102. Which is the same as Jose Berrios last year who evidently was so bad that the team didn’t roster him in the playoffs and appear to be running him out of town. Yet the front office gave him $80m over the crowdsourced estimates at Fangraphs to get him to sign right away. I’m hopeful they have an iron clad plan on how to fix whatever he needs to take the next step but I prefer to judge players by results once the sample size gets large enough. Cease might be a more expensive Berrios. For the record…I think Berrios is a valuable pitcher and I haven’t forgotten that he’s started 3 of the last four opening days iirc.

Huge overpay by Mets but I guess they felt they had to do something after losing out on Tucker. Big risk by Bo too but good for him betting on himself. I would have liked Bo back but if you look at ZIPS projections losing Bo probably probably costs Jays 1-2 WAR. To me, Cease is a much bigger upgrade than losing Bo is a downgrade. Agree with others that I don't like remaining hitters. I mean, I like Bellinger and Suarez enough if they would be much cheaper. There are trade possibilities if they make sense but to me, Jays are best team in AL so don't NEED to do anything.

Well, that sucks. But it would've cost $100 mil a year to get Bo & Tucker and no one predicted that. Bo at 3B for the Mets seems a silly thing to do - poor arm for a SS now at 3B? I pity the Mets pitchers. Bo has opt outs after year 1 and year 2, no deferred cash, $5 mil bonus if he opts-out. $42 mil a year for 3 years. Insane. I was debating $26 mil a year for Bo earlier given his iffy defense, damaged legs, and general injury issues. The Phillies offering $200/7 was a decent/reasonable offer but I really can't blame Bo one bit for taking the cash and running. I'm sure everyone on the Jays will tell him he did the right thing as no way anyone else was matching or beating that. Now he just needs to stay healthy and in 3 years can shoot for a 4 year $80 mil deal to break even, but if he is healthy and doing well he should be looking at $200 for 6 at that point (very likely if he is healthy). If he isn't healthy then $126 mil is nice.

Next big name is Bellinger but I don't see the Jays chasing him this winter unless they have a deal for Santander in place. The rest of the free agent hitter hold zero interest to me. Valdez is easily the best pitcher still out there, a legit #1, but has a TON of issues and it is hard to imagine the Jays adding yet another starter to the mix. Thus the trade market is the next area to watch. Not a ton out there that we know of, so I don't expect anything but who knows.

Dylan “Ace” Cease over the last 3 years has an ERA+ of 102. Which is the same as Jose Berrios last year who evidently was so bad that the team didn’t roster him in the playoffs and appear to be running him out of town.

Which suggests ERA+ isn't telling the whole story. The comparison between Cease and Berrios might have been closer if we look at a younger Berrios, but his ability to strike out large numbers of people has vanished. Dylan Cease is still consistently over 10 SO9 for the last few years. In contrast, Berrios last five years: 10, 7.8, 8.7, 7.2, 7.5. We can dig into the other statistics more if you like, but Berrios performance appears to be in considerable decline.

Don't think most informed Jays fans are going to resent not matching that.

OTOH, They'd have taken heat if he'd had gotten 7/200 (as reported) from the Phillies.

It's just funny that Bo with his professional "win at all cost" reputation is walking himself to an inferior team that wanted him because money is more important than winning.

Bo preferred NYM's 3 years and 126 million + whatever he can make in 4 years after that (120 million more...maybe?) over the Phillies offer of 7 years, 200 million and a better chance to win with the Phillies.

So if Bo can get 30 million/year on a 4 year deal after his age 30 season then he will have made about 46 million dollars more than what the Phillies offered. So clearly making an additionaly 20% or so was his priority...not winning.

I read that income tax in Philly is about 7-8% less than New York state which makes the greed argument stronger. This guys wants every dollar he can get and more of the spotlight.

I sure hope they know what they got in Okamoto and Ponce, because this offseason feels incredibly underwhelming.

Er, Dylan Cease would like to say "Hello". If you feel it is underwhelming, consider how every team whose name does not rhyme with "Dodgers" feels about their offseason.

Yes, 7/$200 would have been very reasonable. This deal is insane. Very weird for Mets too because some of Bo's value lies in being a middle infielder. Playing him at 3B, more guys can play 3B, you have no idea if he can handle the position yet you're paying him more than Bregman and giving him opt outs. Definitely a panic move by the Mets who have second highest payroll in baseball and I can still see them missing playoffs because their starting is so iffy.

Bo doesn't talk much so we don't know his motivations. I always wondered why more players didn't go for the shorter term option. He can live off $120M and it gives him optionality as to where to go next.

Also Bo has two opt outs so it seems flexibility means a lot to him.

It sucks to see Bichette leave, but there is one thing to keep in mind. The Toronto FO knows Bichette better than anyone, and while I don't doubt there was interest in bringing him back, I am sure there was only so much risk they were willing to entertain given their knowledge of his health. $42M/year is insane for someone moving out of the middle infield, given his limitations and risks. Wish him the best of luck, but glad the Jays didn't panic like Cohen.

Winning doesn't appear to be the priority as much as total $$$ and flexibility.

Dodgers are paying 126,000,000 to have Tucker suit up for them next year alone, by the way.

Well yeah, Hayes would be a nice bench add - don't know why I keep thinking that he's already signed somewhere.

Bellinger is going to hold out as long as it takes to get this kind of crazy offer, I think.

Interestingly, ZIPS sees Bo and Okamoto as mostly the same guy:

PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ BABIP WAR wOBA
598 .292 .339 .458 118 .326 3.4 .344
495 .251 .337 .463 118 .270 2.6 .342

Bo on top here.

If you adjust the WAR to plate appearances would bring Okamoto to 3.1 WAR and the marginal difference appears to be hits. TBH, if it played out this way (I'm not one to take ZIPS as definitive) the Okamoto would be the (relative) bargain of the off-season by a huge margin.

Still wouldn't be shocked by an eye-opening trade by the Jays within the next month

https://theonion.com/yankees-ensure-2003-pennant-by-signing-every-player-in-1819566731/(replace Yankees with Dodgers)

Very player-friendly contract for Bo. Should the Blue Jays have matched that? Maybe. Depends on what other options the team has to improve the roster.

At least the Red Sox didn’t sign him. He would have been at least as valuable to Boston as he would have been to Toronto.

I wonder if paying big luxury tax penalties is harder for a public corporation like Rogers to justify to its shareholders, as compared to an owner like Cohen.

Not sure why our offseason is suddenly so bad? We didn't sign any ludicrous contracts, so we suck? 

We signed several good contracts for acceptable value, IMHO. Sure, our hitting got a little worse, but our pitching has improved tremendously. We replaced ~175 IP from starters with ERA+ around 70-75 (Francis, Scherzer, Lucas) - total WAR of roughly -1 with Cease, who has had a MINIMUM of +1 WAR the last 3 years, up to +4 WAR. Even if it's +2, that's a 3-WAR swing - probably bigger than the loss of replacing Bo with Okamoto.


And THEN add in Bieber hopefully being mostly healthy, AND Yesavage possibly being good? That's probably a +4 to +5 WAR swing in terms of pitching. And with Bo gone, our defense overall is better, so that might lift all the pitchers a bit.

I also am confused by people claiming Bo has a reputation for "win at all costs"? I've ALWAYS felt his reputation / mindset (based on the sparse details available) was: I'm mad at Toronto for going to arbitration, I want out - I don't care where, $$$ == great.

Possibly the questionable send that got him injured only steeled his resolve?

I always thought his defensive profile was "poor range, average with the glove when he CAN get to a ball, arm strength is wishful-thinking average, accuracy is anyone's guess".

BBREF / Statcast seems to have him dead last in terms of defense (sometimes significantly so) in EVERY defensive ranking among starting shortstops last year. And there's no telling if he's fully healed - knee injuries can be tricky. Also, he's never been described as "quick" or having good reflexes on the defensive side - the hot corner may eat him alive. Sure, his bat will cover a multitude of mistakes, but it erodes his value. He may be DHing before long. And we may gain +1-2 dWAR or more, just by playing Gimenez / Clement at SS all year. Of course, this all hinges on Springer having another good year - if Springer can't hit at least OPS+ 120, we're really going to miss Bo's bat (at DH, probably).

Of course, if he DOES have a good season, he may take the $5M bonus and opt out. Seems crazy to me you would pay someone a bonus to opt-out?

So the Mets were willing to go to $50m/yr with Tucker, they must see Bo as 84% the player Kyle is.

I'm so confused by all this commentary, especially on a site that loves using WAR all the time. Bichette is a lock-it-in 4-5 win talent, and he just signed a 3 year deal at a rate that values a win at under 10MM. How is this not a team-friendly deal? You'd have to really believe his injury has turned him into a different player moving forward.

Bo has surpassed 4 WAR twice (21 and 23). That’s not “lock it in” to me, not to mention negative WAR in ‘24 and not playing a full season in 3 years.

Bo has never played 3B before and is coming off a significant injury. Plus it is unknown if his arm can handle 3B - it was inaccurate / adequate for SS at best. He's no Clement / Barger out there with the arm. He may lose 0.5-1 WAR just to worse defense.

92-93, you twice mentioned Okamoto and Ponce - what about Cease and Rogers? To me, Cease was the big signing, with Ponce a "maybe there's something there?" I see you mentioned relievers (assuming Rogers) - but you haven't mentioned Cease at all, who is arguably the single biggest signing of the offseason for us?

I'd argue the Mets are making a huge blunder by putting him at 3B instead of 2B, even if he hits like they are banking on.

From his point of view (and Tucker's) these deals are nice insulation against a work stoppage. They can wait two years and opt out in a new financial environment (if they want to) and still be the best position players available.

I love Cease. Yay! Great signing.

I don't like paying relievers like Rogers, especially not on a 3-year deal. I would much rather have Bichette than Rogers, Okamoto, and Ponce. Hopefully I'm wrong.

To me, the off-season is Bieber, Cease, Ponce, Rogers, Okamoto. That is a strong quintet of moves.

Could they use another strong bat (ideally a strong two-way player)?
Yes.

The opt-outs really tilt the Bo contract in the player’s favour. If he has a 4-5 WAR season this year, he’ll have made a huge amount of cash in 2026 and then he’ll opt out and get another big contract (maybe from LA?). If he has injury issues or again or a bad year as was the case in 2024, he can get paid another huge amount in 2027 and then repeat the same process. He gets paid maximally and he gets maximum optionality.

I think you're in the minority 92-93, nothing wrong with that but Bo is definitely anything but a lock for 4-5 WAR.

NYM looks disastrous. They will hit as a team, for sure but:

* Soto and Lindor can't stand each other
* Polanco?? is playing 1B because they wouldn't resign Alonso
* Bo is playing 3B???
* Still missing an OF
* SP still needs work

This looks like a 1 year deal to me for Bichette to opt out, take a 5M signing bonus and then be the top free agent in 2027. He's not going anywhere with the Mets and Cohen taking over the team has only inflated salaries. Credit to the players for leveraging him as hard as they are.

The opt-outs are just the price you have to pay to not have to lock up a 4+ win player into his mid-30s, which seemed to be everyone's big fear about Bichette.

I'm curious if people would still think this deal is "insane" if the season ended at the end of August. If not, then you might just be playing doctor online with very limited information.

It's indisputable that Bichette is a 4-5 WAR talent (using fWAR). He was exactly that in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2025.

That doesn't mean he will post a 4+ WAR season. Injuries happen.

The thing about ERA+ is that it tells me what happened and not what “should” happen. Cease in his platform years where you’d expect him to be entering his peak pitched to the same level as Berrios who everyone thinks is hurt or past it.

I realise there is reason to hope Cease’s peripheral stats lead to better results, but he’s shown for years that command is fleeting. He and Berrios share the ability to take the ball every five days and provide league-average results. Cease might be the new RA Dickey here. I do not think it’s wise to assume he’s an ace because he has never consistently shown he is yet.

Incorrect. It's indisputable using your numbers that he CAN BE a 4-5 WAR talent in 5 of 6 years. It's also also indisputable that he was below replacement in his penultimate season in Toronto, negative value.

It's also highly likely he will be declining from those previous years on the defensive spectrum (where he was already terrible) and that will continue to lower his value according to WAR.

I agree Bo is a top talent, a necessary hitter in a line up. I think you are incorrectly trying to use WAR to justify his value. Like Santander, Bo is bad defensively but provides a very hard to find skill set.

soupman,

nobody has said that Cease is an Ace or given an explanation of what"Ace" means to them. Perhaps "Ace" means Skubal or Skenes to some or "top of rotation arm" to others. Perhaps it simply means "best starter on a team."

First of all, the comment I made was "They get awesome Okamoto and the ace in the market Dylan Cease." To be clear I was saying that Cease is the Ace of the market, the best starting pitcher available.

Second, there is already lots of written articles about why Cease should outperform his existing track record simply from defensive aid and better use of his mechanics.

Lastly, the Jays have enough of a track record under this staff with many many pitchers to show that they fix and improve pitchers far more often than not. I do not understand in any way why RA Dickey and Jose Berrios come to mind as comparative pitchers for Dylan Cease. A far better comp (but one who was never as good as Cease before arriving) is Robbie Ray.

Lots and lots of information, stats and forecasts showing that Cease is the best pitcher on the market and nothing like Jose Berrios.

Would I be happy if Bo had signed the same contract with Toronto? Yes. The lineup clicked with him in the cleanup spot. I think the Blue Jays are going to miss him and be easier to pitch to in 2026 (barring another acquisition). I hope the team finds another impact player somewhere.

It should be acknowledged that had the Blue Jays added Bo on that contract, the luxury tax hit this year would have been huge.

"It's indisputable that Bichette is a 4-5 WAR talent (using fWAR)."

He's had 4 WAR twice and never had 5 WAR. His ZIPS projection is for 3.8 WAR which is still excellent. He's a very good player but he's not a locked-in 4-5 WAR guy.

He was a 4-5 WAR talent in those years. That he finished slightly under 4 wins (0.1 & 0.2) in a couple of those seasons, solely due to games played, does not change that fact.

As far the defense argument - we just saw what he can do without any speed, so there's little reason to assume he would get even worse the next few seasons. It's also pretty reasonable to suggest that the move to 2B would be a wash, if not a positive. He would need to simply be an average 2B; if he was above average, he starts gaining defensive value from where he left off, even with the positional adjustment.

And I actually don't think his value has anything to do with WAR. The dude can roll out of bed and hit. He blasted a monstrous three-run home run in Game 7 of the World Series against the greatest player of all time, on one freakin’ leg. The only players better than Bo's .294 average since he debuted are Arraez, Freeman, Judge, and Turner. Combine that with his power and his ability to play in the middle infield and that's why I want him on the Jays, certainly on a 3-year deal.

Each projection system on Fangraphs has him at 4 wins. The one that doesn't has him at 3.6 because it has him playing 131 games. He's a 4-win talent, and this is such a weird thing to nitpick. If you think finishing at 3.9 WAR in 135 games and 3.8 WAR in 139 games doesn't = a 4-win talent, I can't help explain it any further.

"Ace in the market" is not an expression i've ever heard. i also think it's not clear that Cease was the best pitcher available this year. I happen to think Framber was and is a better fit for the Jays both because he's a lefty and because he is the pre-eminent groundball pitcher in baseball and would have one of the best infields behind him.

People that define the ace as the "best starter on the team" are creating a category that place Kyle Freeland and Paul Skenes in the same group. Most teams do not have an ace. Just like most teams don't have a gold glover, or Hank Aaron hopeful, etc. #1 Starter is the term I've conventionally associated with meaning "the best starter on a team".

The comparison stems from what happens when they pitch, not their repertoire. Dickey had a 3.66 ERA from 2010 to the end of his career. The Jays should be pleased if they get something like that from Cease, but to date he's had one stellar year (2022) in a career where he mostly ends up with an ERA over 4 at the end of the year.

I am hopeful Cease finds the 2022 form. I am not saying he will or won't - just that the Jays were able to sign him quickly unlike Burnes last year - who also had a track record of durability fwiw.

92-93 explain 2024 Bo Bichette to me.

There's no way Toronto would pay Bo more than Vlad in 2026.
Yet, this is what the Mets are doing.
The Mets have made a lot of weird moves this year.
It seems like the GM there is playing fantasy baseball, signing veterans to play at new positions.

It's a short deal with very high AAV.
It's usually the type of deal a guy would sign following a poor year.
It's quite the opposite for Bo.
GMs should know what they are getting.
It's very unlikely that Bo will significantly exceed his projections, although a bad year could happen--due to injury for example.
Also, Bo gets a 5M bonus for opting out, which is very weird.
They're daring him to opt out?

read somewhere that the new trend of bonuses paid if the player opts out as a may to "hide" money that doesn't raise the AAV. They make these deals complex, often, just to maneuver around the tax calculations.

Bichette has lost speed and is no longer a capable shortstop.  I don't know whether he can thrive at second base or (less likely, I think) third base.  But the potential to reach greater heights with his bat is definitely there.  I don't think he is a sure thing to reach any particular point, but the ceiling remains very high.  Whether you'd want to spend $42M per year for that would depend on your appraisal whether he is likely to hit at his career norms, below or above.  The Blue Jays have seemingly decided that one of the first two are most likely to occur.  If he hits at his career average (a 122 wRC+), he's likely to be worth less than he did so far in his career because of lesser defence and baserunning value.  

If the player is not expected to opt out, it's not hiding anything.

I read that what's potentially driving the salary cap discussion is that team valuations would increase if there was a cap.
That seems a bit crazy.
There are many teams that are miles away from a reasonable payroll.
Would those team magically spend more just because a couple of teams are spending less?
It's not the Dodgers and the Mets who make the Pirates and the Rockies suck.
And then what? Take loans against the added valuation? Sell the team to suckers who will struggle to stay afloat?

I think the real issue is that some teams are raking money with local broadcasting rights and others are struggling to find anybody to sell theirs to. 
A cap doesn't address that. 
They'd need to pool all those revenues together to get to a socialist NHL style structure where the low-tax states are reaping all the benefits.

Thanks Bo for all those good years and for putting out 100% on every play. See you in October!

I can’t explain 2024, dalimon5, but I am willing to pretty much ignore it if I’m projecting him for the next 3 seasons and my medical staff says he’s healthy. He’s been a remarkably consistent player.

Yeah no arguments there.

Wonder if Bo wanted to get off the artificial turf, given his history of leg issues. Someone on Bluebird Banter posted a comprehensive list of Bo’s injuries in his career in the majors. It’s quite a long list.

I still like the idea of trading for Kwan. He’s not an impact player in the mould of Bichette or Tucker, but he has been a consistent 3.0-4.7 fWAR player in the majors (despite some low BABIP numbers). He’s controllable for two seasons and will be a $7.7m player in 2026 (with no opt-outs!). He would help make the Blue Jays a very, very good pitching-and-defense team, with a pesky and productive offense, in 2026 and 2027.

One problem is that Cleveland has a good farm system. They may not have much incentive to trade him to Toronto for prospects.

Savant has Bichette in the 1st percentile for range and 36th for arm strength. 
21st for running.

The hitting is in the 78th-86th ange. 
But the running is poor and the fielding is even worst.

Lots of confusion about the opt outs, but it’s being reported that the Mets can buy out the option by tacking on 5MM to his salary. Bo doesn’t get it if he walks.

That would be an extra 10M. They should have given that to Tucker.

Can the Mets buy out each of the two opt-outs, or just one of them?

So Bo’s salary in 2027 will be $47m (with no deferred money) — $42m plus $5m — if the Mets buy out the opt-out for that season?

In other words, a full $47m plus luxury tax overage of 90-110% on that amount (wherever the Mets fall on that spectrum)?

That is a *big* financial commitment.

7/200 seemed a fairish number. This Mets deal seems great for Bo, though to match.

The move I'd most like to see from the Jays now is an extension for Varsho.

Where does Kwan even play? Replaces Santander? Do Jays really need to replace offense with a defensive-minded LF? If the Jays trade for a starter, because of the quality of their current ones, it needs to be someone really good like Ketel Marte.

I could definitely see the Jays having interest in Kwan. Whether he'd be the type of upgrade to justify the cost is a different story. I just don't care for LF defense enough to give up a ton of value there, and a rich man's 2025 Nathan Lukes doesn't move the needle all that much. If they want an outfielder who should be available in a trade with 2 years of cheap control left, then I'd look at Nootbaar assuming his medicals are good. He has the type of bat speed, exit velocity, and eye that you could envision being a very good fit with Popkins.

I guess it depends how valuable you think Kwan will be in 2026. The projections have Lukes as about a 1 WAR player and Kwan as about a 3 WAR player. If he’s healthy, I could see Kwan as being more valuable than that.

Kwan has also been an excellent postseason performer. In 92 PA, he’s hit .321/.380/.405 with 3 SB (0 CS), 8 walks and 6 strikeouts.

If the Blue Jays are aiming to make it back to the WS this year, Kwan seems like he could contribute to that goal. He’s also right in his prime (28), whereas Marte (32) is edging out of his.

Anyway, chances are the Blue Jays will wait and try to be opportunistic at the trade deadline.

Just checking Bo's WAR history...

• FG: 1.4-0.9-4.9-4.8-3.9-0.3-3.8 = 20.0
• BR: 2.3-1.1-5.9-3.7-4.8-(0.3)-3.5 = 21.0
• BP: 0.9-0.7-4.8-2.9-3.2-0.6-2.9 = 16.0

BP has him down a lot - they measure against quality of opponent (pitcher and team) which seems to hurt Bo a lot, they have his DRC+ (deserved Runs Created +) at 117 last year and 113 lifetime, much lower than FG wRC+ 134/121, and BR OPS+ 129/121.

For comparison lifetime Vlad is 26.0 BP, 25.9 BR, 20.7 FG. So what hits Bo hard isn't hitting Vlad. His DRC+ is 136/135, wRC+ 137/137, OPS+ 133/136 - no real spread there.

Weird. Wonder what it all means. Does Bo beat up on weak teams normally? His World Series line of 348/444/478 suggests otherwise. Wonder if a lot of his hits are weak 'perfect placed' which involves a lot of luck. Ah well, whatever, either way he is a damn good player and I hate to lose him but if he can't play SS or 2B everyday then he wasn't going to work long term here.

I hacked an average of Steamer and Zips. Zips only has ops+ not wrc+ but close enough for now.

RF/LF Tucker 141wrc+, 4.4war/650
2B/3B Bichette: 120wrc+, 3.9war/650
3B/OF Okamoto 116wrc+, 3.3war/650
OF/1B Bellinger 114wrc+, 3.3war/650
LF/RF Kwan 109wrc+, 3.1war/650
3B/OF Barger 108wrc+, 2.5war/650
LF/RF Santander 107wrc+, 1.5war/650
RF/LF Lukes 106wrc+, 2.7war/650
2B/OF Schneider 106wrc+, 2.6war/650
SS/2B Clement 95wrc+, 2.7war/650
SS/2B Gimenez 93wrc+, 3.1war/650


I wouldn't waste too many resources on Bellinger/Kwan tbh.

UO, do you think Donovan (who hits RHP well — 130 wRC+) would be worth acquiring, as a complement to Clement (who hits LHP adequately and isn’t great against RHP)?

Otherwise Clement is going to start pretty much every game this year.

Donovan is an interesting one. Projections range from 2.5 to 2.9 fWAR with last year being a 2.9 after a 3.2 in '24. 361 lifetime OBP and a LH hitter means he'd be a nice #2 between Springer and Vlad. His WARP (BP) was 2.4 last year, 3.0 in '24. So not hit as hard as Bo is by that system, but hit harder than Vlad is. He might be an ideal addition to be nearly everyday at 2B, Clement vs LHP at SS or 2B depending on need for offense or defense. Okamoto being a pure RH hitter makes his days off more a function of getting Clement in the lineup I'm thinking.

So the ideal right now is probably trading for Donovan, then going with a Vlad-Donovan-Gimenez-Okamoto IF with Clement as the backup (playing as often as possible). The OF being Santander-Varsho-Barger with Schneider or Straw used vs LHP to give either Varsho or Barger a day off (or Santander). Poor Lukes the odd man out in this setup.

Joey Loperfido erasure!

Donovan isn't really upgrade. Cardinals think he's a very good player and want big return but on Jays he'd be part-timer. One interesting idea for a trade is O'Neill Cruz. Incredible skills but big underachievement. Can play all over the field. Probably not a fit but could see it as a big swing.

Schreck 99wrc+, 1.1war/650
Loperfido 91wrc+, 1.0war/650

The backups are at an acceptable replacement level, but Loperfido is not the 300 hitter he played like last year - that was a BABIP fluke. Schreck being projected at that level is interesting.
Checking ZIPS for an even comparison of the OF options...

• Varsho 102 OPS+ 2.5 WAR
• Springer 115 2.2
• Schneider 106 2.0
• Barger 105 1.9
• Lukes 103 1.8
• Loperfido 96 1.4
• Schreck 101 1.4
• Santander 107 1.3
• Clase 81 1.2
• Straw 72 1.0

The PA are 392 and up. So if not full time close enough for this purpose. Basically Santander is not a good option anymore outside of raw power. Barger isn't a budding superstar, but more likely to be a 'league average starter', same as Schneider and Lukes. Loperfido, Schreck, Santander, Clase, and Straw all need upgrades - none that good as regulars. Sorry, Santander just has power and nothing else - 3 seasons of 2+ fWAR lifetime. Not really that good, seemed good at the time but not now.

I should add in Bellinger: 112 OPS+ 3.3 WAR thus adding 1.3 WAR over playing Davis Schneider according to ZiPS. 1.4 over Barger. That is worth about $15 mil, not $30 mil that he last was known to be asking for over 7 years, now probably higher.

The other 5 systems at FG has him from 2.1 to 3.0 WAR for 2026. I really don't see a point to signing Bellinger outside of panic - much like in 2016-17 with Morales after EE didn't take the Jays offer right away.

This is MLBTR’s latest summary of the Bo contract:

They’ve reportedly agreed to a massive three-year, $126MM contract with free agent infielder Bo Bichette. The Vayner Sports client can opt out of the contract after this season and after the 2027 campaign, and if he chooses to do so he’ll pick up an additional $5MM bonus. The contract, which does not contain any deferred money and affords Bichette a full no-trade clause, is pending the completion of a physical.

So next morning thoughts:

Jays offered Tucker 350 million over 10 which isn't competitive with Dodgers 4 year offer.

Now that Bo is gone I am changing my outlook and I guess I'm less enthused and more in line with the "should've" grabbed him when we had the chance (whenever that would've been).

I can see now that if he was prioritized Bo could have been had for around 27 million/year at most if he was chased like Cease.

I wonder if Tucker would have accepted a 10/$400m offer early in the off-season (take it or leave it), if the Blue Jays had proffered this.

I predicted that $400m+ would be required on a long-term deal to acquire Tucker. $350m sounds nice based on past metrics but it was inadequate in the current market.

My gut feel on Bo is that he didn't want to play on turf and he wasn't especially fond of being in Canada and that the Blue Jays were never going to sign him unless they blew him away. I can't really substantiate it but that's my sense. I think we should be thankful for all the good years he gave us. I would bet that in sum those end up being the best years of his career.

Bo was a 5 WAR player who played 159 games per season in his age 23 and 24 years. He stole 25 bases at age 23. He was a more dynamic multifaceted player then.

However, he had his best year as a hitter in 2025. He made some adjustments and brought his K rate down and his BB rate up a bit. He seemed to have matured as a hitter, and the home run off Ohtani was a monumental, career-defining hit that probably should have won the World Series for Toronto.

My guess is that his age 23/24 seasons will be his peak in terms of overall performance, durability and WAR, but that he'll still be a valuable hitter over the next few years.

My read is that Okamoto was signed to replace Bo.
Similar projection. Lower cost.

They could still have signed Bo, but maybe only the way they signed Bautista, on a team friendly short contract assuming he didn't get a good offer elsewhere.

If the Blue Jays were willing to give Tucker 10/350, would it be worth offering Bellinger 6/180 (maybe with some deferred money to bring down the present value)? Springer, Bellinger, VGJ would be a solid top of the batting order in 2026. And Bellinger plays strong corner OF defense.

Could also trade for Donovan, in addition to signing Bellinger, for some additional L/R versatility.

Why do people think Bo, an infielder, plays on turf? Percentage-wise how much time did he actually spend standing on turn instead of natural clay, 5%? 10%? The turf argument for an INF never makes sense after the renovation to install natural sand, soil and clay on the infield (which is huge).

Tulo, Gimenez, Chapman...sure I can understand the argument due to their range and position taking them way off the dirt but Bo? Rarely saw him touch the artificial turf except in the on deck circle.

The Mets opted to overpay Bo to play at 3B rather than overpay Bellinger.
Bellinger was a good fit for them, he could have started some games at 1B.
They were looking for a left bat as well.

Bellinger was limping in September.
Not sure the turf would have been great for him.

Only guy I'd spend big money for right now is Valdez. Jays don't "need" him but it would give Jays insane rotation and they could do the Dodgers thing of resting guys much of the year and then go into playoffs with guys fully rested and healthy. Not likely at all of course.

"Why do people think Bo, an infielder, plays on turf?"

You make a good point daliman. There was some reporting that suggested Bo did not like the turf at Roger's Centre:

https://bluejaysnation.com/news/report-bo-bichette-concerns-rogers-centres-playing-surface

And his injuries were primarily in his legs/knees ... but who knows if it really made any difference.

Doubt the turf really was a factor. Sounds like something just used as an excuse for saying 'goodbye'.

Big question now is what option is best at each position.

• C: Kirk/Heineman/Valenzuela, then some AAAA guy signed as emergency for 4th/etc.
• 1B: Vlad/Okamoto
• 2B: Clement/Schneider - A LH option here would be nice to add
• SS: Gimenez/Clement - a nice platoon if we had someone to trust 2B to all the time.
• 3B: Okamoto/Barger/Clement/etc. Expect Okamoto to start for April and then if he isn't doing well more Barger time there to let someone play in the OF (Lukes?)
• LF: Santander/Schneider/Straw/Lukes
• CF: Varsho/Straw - I'd be surprised if more than 10 innings goes to other guys in CF
• RF: Barger/Straw/Lukes/Schneider - ideally a better RH bat than Straw gets mixed in. I suspect Schneider will get reps in RF in the spring to see if he can do an adequate job there. Could see Springer here from time to time so Vlad can DH (Vlad DH, Springer RF, Okamoto 1B, Clement 3B, Schneider 2B vs the odd LHP)
• DH: Springer/Vlad/Santander - Springer and Santander both belong here, but Springer likes DHing and Santander doesn't.
• Backups: Schneider, Straw, Heineman are locks with Lukes hoping to hold a slot as well depending on future moves.

In 2025 Clement was the #5 2B for fWAR in MLB, Donovan #8 (only 2B known to be on the trade market). #1 was Nico Hoerner of the Cubs - final year before free agency, but the Cubs won 92 last year and were in the playoffs so I'd be shocked if they traded him for less than a fortune. It'd take a lot to find an overall improvement at 2B, IMO Clement and Schneider should work well.

Looking at the team the questions are 2 fold - #1 who plays in 2026, pretty much set. Question #2 who plays after 2026.

• C: Kirk under control through 2030, Heineman 2028, Valenzuela 6+ years. A very, very secure position.
• 1B: Vlad here until his career ends (2039)
• 2B: Clement 2028
• SS: Gimenez 2029/option 2030
• LF: Santander opt out after '27, deal to 2029, 2030 option
• CF: Varsho only this year, Straw option '27, '28
• RF: Barger 2030, Lukes '31, Schneider '29
• DH: Springer only this year
• SP: Gausman only this year, Bieber same, Berrios player opt out post '26 or 2 more years, Cease 2032, Yesavage 2031, Ponce 2028
• RP: Hoffman 2027, Garcia 2026, Rogers 2028/vesting or team option for '29, Francis '29, Varland '30, Little '30, Fisher '31

Outside of Varsho not much to worry about next winter I'd say. The 2-3 slots of the rotation are pretty much planned for and I fully expect the Jays to be able to resign Gausman if they want to as he bought a place in Toronto and seems very happy here.

Best prospect (using BB top 30)...

• C: Edward Duran #17, Valenzuela not ranked but will be up sometime in '26.
• 1B: Jackson Hornung #27 - luckily Vlad is here forever
• 2B: Sam Shaw #22, JR Freethy #30
• 3B: Charles McAdoo #18, Sean Keys #20, Cutter Coffee #21, Tim Piasentin #23
• SS: Arjun Nimmala #2, Jojo Parker #3, Juan Sanchez #7, Josh Kasevich #15
• OF: RJ Schreck #8, Jake Cook #11, Victor Arias #12, Yohendrick Piñango #14, Blaine Bullard #28
• RHP: Trey Yesavage #1 (duh), Gage Stanifer #4, Jake Bloss #9, Fernando Perez #10, Silvano Hechavarría #13, Lazaro Estrada #19, Micah Bucknam #24, Austin Cates #26
• LHP: Johnny King #5, Ricky Tiedemann #6, Adam Macko #16, Brandon Barriera #25, Javen Coleman #29

Pretty obvious the Jays are stocking up on pitching. For a good reason - pitchers are damn variable and you need so many of them (13 right now). Easy to see why they traded for Valenzuela with the weak catching depth, luckily Kirk signed long term. 2B/3B also weak, but TONS of depth at SS so hopefully that covers it soon (guys who are quality can jump fast, don't be shocked if Nimmala or Parker are in Buffalo by years end, I expect one of them to be in AA by the end of the season). Kasevich should be a call up if any IF gets hurt as he is supposed to be top notch on defense which is always desired from backups. Sanchez is far away. For the OF in '27 I don't see any CF on that list - some have been used there but none are real replacements for Varsho afaik.

Another variable - rumors are the Jays are talking with Valdez, a steady 4 WAR pitcher, now. He'd force Ponce and Berrios to the pen but give us a killer rotation - Gausman, Cease, Bieber, Valdez, Yesavage. The pen would be crazy deep too with Hoffman-Varland-Rogers-Garcia-Little-Lauer-Ponce-Berrios. I'd expect Lauer and/or Berrios to be traded in that case. But damn would the rotation be crazy strong.

There still has been no reports on what the Jays offered to Bo. With no reports you have to wonder if the Jays made a serious offer to him.

At this point, the rumours re: the Jays seem to be:

A) wrong, AND
B) disappointed the heck out of us

After Freeman, Ohtani, Soto, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Tucker…from now on I’m just going to assume that the very best FAs and Japanese players are going to sign with LA or the Mets. I’m not going to follow that drama closely any more.

I’ll remain hopeful that the Blue Jays (like the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox) will sometimes sign some very good FAs from Tiers 2 and 3. This is not a complaint. There are much worse positions to be in. Unlike most teams, the Blue Jays have been real players in free agency this off-season.

Feels like Bo's runway was to get something done before the clock ran out on Okamoto - and the Jays wisely decided to not risk coming away with none of them. Then that signing effectively made the Bo decision academic.

Taking off of what John posted, it seems to me that looking in from the outside, the reason to go all in this winter is because (a) likelihood of a lockout this fall and (b) the very thin free agent market the next two years.

Logically, you wouldn't make any firm plans for the future beyond what's committed until you see the new CBA. There will surely be taxes and an attempt at a cap but the levels would be unknown. There's a real opportunity to fall under the tax level for a penalty reset (that level ain't going down and will probably go up) so the smart play is to wait.

I think they very likely want to keep Varsho, which won't run them over the threshold (Fangraphs projects a tax payroll of 201 million for '27) and there's a non-zero possibility of going a year at a time with Springer if he's good in '26 (albeit that renews the question of how much Santander defense you can put up with). I would think Springer doesn't want to just play out the string elsewhere and the Jays highly value his leadership role.

Gausman might rather get multi-years depending on how much he would rather stay but if he's solid in '26 they might rather keep rolling with him for a couple more years rather than keep paying the massive taxes to try and sign Skubal or something.

After this labor stuff is in the past then they can resume throwing their weight around. In the meantime, you have a chance to integrate some youth, like Tiedemann, and see who's for real. People will gripe and moan about being stingy, but it seems very strategic to me.

@92-93 Yes, I do think that paying $42M to an injury-prone player moving down the defensive spectrum is insane. And I like the player! For that contract to be worth it, he would need to:

• hit like peak Bichette (expected, that is what he does)
• stay healthy and play a full season (much less likely)
• play an average to above-average 3B (complete unknown)

I understand that the contract is only three years, and there are mechanisms to make it even shorter than that. However, the Mets are assuming all the risk, paying a premium, and the risk is considerable from day one. If 4-WAR is the benchmark he needs to hit, he will have to excel at a defensive position he has never played before, as I believe the positional adjustment from SS to 3B is -0.5 WAR before he fields his first groundball. Personally, I think he had a better chance at being an average 2B as I don't think he has the first-step quickness or arm to play 3B effectively. I could be wrong of course, and I hope he has success as I alrady said, I like the player.

if this is the roster they are going with, I'd speculate that one way to play some of the mix&match would be to let Springer play RF on the days you choose to shield Barger from a lefty (I'm in the camp of giving Barger some run against lefties and try to get better there but I'm speculating) and on those days, Santander is the DH (because while Springer might be tolerable in the field you don't want both of them out there on the same day)

When Vlad needs to DH, Barger can play 3B and Springer or Santander plays RF.

Despite Schneider not hitting LH as well as you'd want last year (which seems flukey to me) there's a case for playing him at 2B when Ernie moves over to hide Gimenez from some lefties - or when Ernie needs a day off.

The rest seems pretty obvious. You hope that if both Springer and Santander regress that you end up with a net positive, you hope Okamoto effectively replaces Bo's contribution, and that Barger is legit (unlike ZIPS, which is limited with young guys I think Barger has another level.

I'd still take a run at a 2B upgrade (within reason) but it's not hard to see this being as good or better offensively as last year without having to hope that guys like Lukes are legit.

I do find the complaints about the ones that got away funny sometimes. The Jays have been signing more top 10 FA's than anyone else the past few years....

• 2025/6: #3 Cease, plus #19 Okamoto, #39 Ponce, #42 Rogers
• 2024/5: #9 Santander, plus #18 Hoffman, #33 Scherzer
• 2023/4: a bit weak no top 20, #28 Rodriguez, #31 Kiermaier, #41 Turner - put all the eggs into the Ohtani basket and lost.
• 2022/3: no top 10's, #13 Bassitt
• 2021/2: #5 Kevin Gausman, plus #34 Kikuchi.
• 2020/1: #3 George Springer, also #15 Semien, #36 Ray, #42 Yates
• 2019/20: #9 Hyun-Jin Ryu, plus #20 Tanner Roark.

That covers the current contending era. So over 7 years they signed 5 top 10's, 5 in the next 10, and 19 top 50's overall or just shy of 3 per year. Remove 2019/20 (no one expected a 2020 playoff) and you have over 6 years 4 top 10's, 17 top 50's or barely under 3 a year (1 more and they hit 3 per). Can't imagine any other era of Jays history when they would've averaged 3 top 50 free agents over 5+ years. In the 83-93 era it was rare to sign even 1 significant free agent it seemed pre 91/92 (Winfield, Morris) and 92/93 (Stewart, Molitor). Even 2015/16 when they were a contender coming off an exciting playoff run they didn't do much (lost Price, resigned #29 Estrada, signed #30 Happ and that seems to be it).

No question the Jays have had trouble with the #1 free agent - that player is always going to be tough for anyone to sign. Tucker was offered $350 mil over 10 by the Jays but the Dodgers came in hard with that $240/4 deal (he just needs $110 over 6 after that runs out to break even - I suspect if the Jays went to $400 they might have had him, but would it have been worth it?). To get 2 #1's over the past few years the Dodgers had to push their payroll to a point where with luxury tax factored in they could be spending $500 mill this year. No one else is likely over $400 mil. This is a LOT like the late 90's/early 00's when the Yankees outspent everyone by a mile. Just glad it is the Dodgers and not the Yankees doing it this time. So deep playoff runs are possible, just making the WS difficult, but not impossible (2 bloody outs away, or less than a foot away, or one more clutch hit away).

Lets look at recent years - don't feel like digging into all those sites and doing the search so lets go with $10+ mil/year guys using FanGraphs free agent tracker which luckily covers the entire 2020's.

• NYY: 25/6: 1, 24/5: 2; 23/4: 1; 22/3: 3; 21/2: 1; 20/1: 1; Total: 9
• Bos: 25/6: 1; 24/5: 3; 23/4: 1; 22/3: 4; 21/2: 1; 20/21: 1; Total: 11
• Bal: 25/6: 3; 24/5: 4; 23/4: 1; 22/3: 1; 21/2: 0; 20/21: 0; Total: 9
• TB: 25/6: 0; 24/5: 1; 23/4: 0; 22/3: 1; 21/2: 0; 20/21: 0; Total: 2
• Tor: 25/6: 4; 24/5: 3; 23/4: 2; 22/3: 1; 21/2: 2; 20/21: 2; Total: 14
• LAD: 25/6: 2; 24/5: 6; 23/4: 4; 22/3: 3; 21/2: 3; 20/21: 2; Total: 20

SO the Jays are signing more expensive FA than anyone else in the division over the past 6 years, but the Dodgers are in a league of their own for expensive signings. FYI: add 2019/20 and the NYY have 2 more, Jays 2, LAD 1, Boston/Baltimore/TB 0 each. An interesting exercise. Don't see an easy way to add in extensions for players on a team already (like Vlad) but free agency is a pretty big indicator imo. Shows if a team is willing to meet the market prices for top quality players or not. Extending home grown tends to be cheaper if you do it before they go to free agency. I do wonder what Vlad would've gotten if he went to free agency after that WOW playoff. Glad we didn't have to find out.

"complaints about the ones that got away"
My post clearly said that it was not a complaint. It was an observation that the elite-plus FAs -- the very best ones -- have signed with LAD and the Mets in recent years. I'm choosing to no longer get swept up in rumours about the Blue Jays potentially signing those very few "elite-elite" FAs. That's all.

The #1's are inherently hard to sign. Only 1 team can sign the #1 guy each year by definition.

• 2025/6: Tucker - signed by LAD for $240/4 - story to be written still.
• 2024/5: Soto - signed by NYM for $765/15 - 160 OPS+ 6.2 bWAR, 3rd in MVP but didn't make the playoffs
• 2023/4: Ohtani - signed by LAD for $700/10 - 2 WS titles, 2 MVP's, what else can one ask?
• 2022/3: Judge - signed by NYY for $360/9 (bargain - he wanted to stay there) - 25.1 WAR in 3 years. Yikes. 928 OPS in 2 playoff years since as well.
• 2021/2: Correa - signed by Twins for $105.3/3, opted out after 1 year, then had musical chairs signing with the Giants, then the Mets, before going back to Minny (failed physicals). 4 years 11.8 bWAR (his first 3 were 10.3 bWAR)
• 2020/1: Bauer - signed by LAD for $128/4 (big buyers regret there I'm sure)
• 2019/0: Cole - signed by NYY for $324/9 - 19.8 bWAR so far in 6 years (3.3 per, pitched well in a WS losing year for them in '24, sub 3 ERA in playoffs as a NYY over 12 starts)

The only ones the Jays didn't seriously chase afaik were Correa and Judge. I think we all agree 'phew' on Bauer, but outside of Correa it was an LAD (3)/NYY (2)/NYM (1) battle for the other 6. The Dodgers keep pushing the bar higher for maximum salary. The one who those 3 didn't get was a guy who has massive injury issues and I'm sure few here wish the Jays signed. The top free agent tends to be a solid investment it seems looking back with 2 exceptions. But not being in NY or LA makes it much harder to get that top free agent. 1996/7 with Roger Clemens and 1991/2 with Jack Morris the Jays got a guy who many saw as potentially the top free agent by overpaying grossly (both set records for highest pay for a pitcher ever at the time). Other than that I cannot think of the Jays being seriously in the hunt for the top free agent beyond the past 7 years. Skubal will be the #1 next winter, the Jays might chase him but odds are his demands will be insane and not worth it (pitchers are so risky to invest long term in). Bo could be the top non-pitcher next year.

It is interesting looking at those, Bauer is the only one that was a bust (and that was non-baseball related). Cole might not quite be breakeven, but the rest are so far well on track to be worth their very large contracts. There may well be dead years on the end, but likely the stars will have outperformed enough at the start to make it worth while.

Would love to see the Blue Jays trade for Skubal, now or at the trade deadline (if he's available). I imagine any trade would happen in the summer, as the asking price would be about the same then as it is now. He would be a true difference-maker on a good team in the postseason.

Skubal has been very effective in the post-season too - against Cleveland (2 years), Houston & Seattle (1 year each). 2.04 ERA overall. 6 starts 39 2/3 IP (over 6 IP per game).

Hmmm... maybe he is worth a shot - but safe to say Detroit will want 2 arms, a leg, and your first born for him. Can't blame them either. Odds are they'd insist on Yesavage as part of a deal. Thus I expect the Jays to wait until next offseason to chase - maybe do a full-court press the minute they are allowed until the lockout starts (December 2nd, 2026) and see if he will sign before new rules are put in place or not. IMO the smart move for players is to sign before a new agreement due to the high possibility owners will press super-hard for a salary cap and games will be lost in 2027 due to that. Odds are the final deal will be a tougher luxury tax - a 5th tier for Dodgers & Mets only at the moment - around $350 mil - at a 200% or higher rate, making it a defacto cap but not one technically. Players will insist on other trade offs - higher minimum salary, perhaps much higher ($2 mil perhaps, climbing to $5 mil over the term of the agreement which would effectively make the payroll floor $52 mil year one, climbing to $130 mil by the end). Maybe something to make it so players get more service time early on if teams try the 'down in April, up in May' trick (if a player has 1/2 a season or more of service time at the end of a season it is pushed up to a full season). Lots of other concessions that could make it all work I'm sure. Owners also desperately want an international draft, but non-US players are dead set against it so that could be another flash point. I'd love them to allow full trading of draft picks as that could make deals and draft day more interesting imo. Removing the 'bonus picks' for 'small markets' so removing the bonus picks from Guardians, Royals, D-backs (really?), Cardinals, Orioles, Pirates, Rockies (another club that chooses small), Brewers, Mariners (bloody hell), Tigers (this is a joke right?), Reds, Marlins, Rays, A's, Twins. Phoenix is the 11th largest media market in the USA yet they get a bonus pick for being 'small market'? Sheesh!!! Detroit is 14th, Tampa/St Pete's 12th, Seattle 13th, Minny 15th, Denver 17th - why are these teams getting bonus picks? They are just poorly run, not small market!

But that is my point. Skubal is not going to sign with Toronto as a FA. If LAD offers him $70m a year, if Toronto going to match that? They will not. However, the Blue Jays might be able to rent him for Aug-Nov 2026 if he becomes available at the trade deadline. And that could be enough to win the WS this year. He is that good.

I think the point is not that Toronto won't match its that it doesn't matter if they do because they have to beat LA's offer at which point the player goes back to LA and they just pay more. So yes they won't match 70 million/year but not it's not because they can't or don't want to it's because if they do then that 70 quickly becomes a 75 from LA...it's also happening to everyone else which is why the NYY are telling Bellinger they will not partake in a bidding war.

I wouldn’t mind if the Blue Jays poached Bellinger away from the Yankees. The Blue Jays would get a LH bat, #2 hitter, and a versatile and good outfielder. And this would hurt the Yankees, a key rival.

But I understand the competing point of view that the Blue Jays outfield/1B situation is crowded and that Bellinger isn’t enough of an upgrade to justify a 6/180 contract or whatever it would take to land him.

dalimon, you may have a point. Either way, the Tucker saga (following the Ohtani, Soto, etc. sagas) has made me lose the desire to follow the off-season competitions for those types of superstar FAs. I’lI’ll just assume they aren’t going to sign in Toronto.

Extending home grown players (or traded for controlled players) before they hit FA (complete with risk they may not develop fully) is the way to lock in stars. There are 30 teams so most teams fail on most players from a pure luck of the draw point of view, and then there is usually one big spender that gets first dibs on everyone. For much of the last 30 years that was the Yankees, although for most of the past decade it has been Dodgers.

As was pointed out above the Jays are still one of the main players in these things, just probably more in the group of teams from about 3rd to 6th most competitive or so. I mean there are a bunch of teams you know aren't going to compete for top FA (Rays, As, Royals, etc.).

The important thing is the players we do get working out, and the Jays have been pretty good on that so far.

Would you sign Bellinger for Bo's contract (with no opt-outs)?

Yankees offer is 5/$160.

I think the Blue Jays need to go somewhat longer-term to spread out the AAV (to avoid a massive luxury tax hit this year). They might be able to do a Bo-type contract for a player in a future offseason, but not this offseason.

Yeah, I get the idea of why people are sick of it after 7 years of the Jays chasing the #1 free agent and never getting the guy. Still, what else are you going to do - watch the Leafs? (talk about a hopeless case) I see it as fun, and hope is better than hopeless. OF course, that is why I kept predicting 90+ wins and a shot at a title year in/year out for a looooong time. I like to dream, to see what could happen. Sure beats going 'nah, no chance, they are screwed'. Remember, the Jays signed the #1 pitcher this winter, a solid reliever, and a solid player from Japan. Could they sign more? Sure. Could it have been even better? Sure. I was 100% sure the Jays were going to sign one of Bo or Tucker - but didn't account for 2 teams going crazy on bids, 1 sure, but 2? Sigh. Didn't matter I think as the report was that the Phillies had Bo signed with a verbal agreement the night before, but Bo's team showed a lack of ethics (money does that) and goes to the Mets for crazy per year money.

Hrm... the more I look the more I wonder if MLB will try to limit long term deals, thus making these crazy $40+ mil per year deals more common, and 10+ year deals less. Thus making it so the tax hits teams harder, and making a more level playing field so teams like the Phillies and Jays don't waste time negotiating long term deals just to be told 'sorry, we went for a short term higher per year deal'. Dodgers almost at $350 mil already for '27, well over $200 mil the next 2 years after that, $100+ mil for 2030-2032 so their room if anything close to a cap is put in place is minimal. I suspect they'll adjust how deferred money is accounted for which won't help the Dodgers too. All of that could hit the Dodgers hard, but the Mets will have TONS of space open up post '26 (over $100 mil off (Frankie Montas $17 mil in '26 then done among others) based on FanGraphs.

Next winter will be annoying I suspect. Far better to debate if the Jays ever had a chance at Tucker or ever put real effort into getting Bo back than the debate over if/when we will get MLB baseball back.

not being able to get the top FAs is all the more reason to lock up your Vlads and Bos early.

That I can agree with, if they will sign. Bo seemed to want to go to free agency for years then suddenly during the WS he claimed he wanted to stay. I suspect it was trying to maximize his price.

Wilber Sánchez@wilberdata·Jan 17
Los futuros millonarios de la clase 2027 💰⚾️

1.Alfredo Sena – $5.8M (Braves) 🇩🇴
2.Mairon De La Rosa – $4.3M (Yankees) 🇩🇴
3.Eudi Yuten – $4.0M (Mariners) 🇩🇴
4.Jesús Arteaga – $3.5M (Rays) 🇻🇪
5.Euniel De La Cruz – $3.3M (Mets) 🇩🇴
6.Junior Fortunato – $3.2M (Blue Jays) 🇩🇴
7.Yancel Rodríguez – $1.6M (Phillies) 🇩🇴
8.Boni Guzmán – $1.5M (Giants) 🇩🇴
9.Yasleyker Parra – $1.5M (Brewers) 🇻🇪
10.Jeiler Blanco – $1.4M (Phillies) 🇻🇪
11.Salomón Millán – $1.2M (Brewers) 🇻🇪
12.Jhon Rodríguez – $1.2M (Angels) 🇻🇪
-----------------
Wilber Sánchez@wilberdata
Translated from Spanish

Junior Fortunato, the best outfielder in the class of 2027

He has a pre-agreement with Toronto and is expected to sign for a $3.5M bonus.

“Athletic player with natural power. He has all five tools and projects as a generational talent. Without a doubt, he's the best in his class”

https://x.com/wilberdata/status/1953069878308475285

I would outbid the Yankees for Bellinger because he's a really nice fit once Varsho and Springer are gone next year. I would outbid them but not the Mets. That way it stays sane. Try to keep the contract as close to or similar to George Springers length.

There is a lot of talk in the media and through people that have talked to Bo that he was never interested in negotiating a long term deal.

I really hope the lockout this winter doesn't stop the IFA market from happening - if the Jays really have a generational talent set to sign it'd suck to lose him.

For those who think 'the Jays should've signed Bo young' - remember, it takes 2 to tango. Elly delaCruz was offered a franchise record amount by the Reds meaning over $225 million after just 1 full season, last winter, but decided to bet on himself instead ala how I think Bo and Vlad were. Yes the Reds could offer him $300 or $400 million and probably still finish ahead of the game if he took it, but odds are he is like the Jays duo was - whatever they offer me today, all I need to do is keep playing at my level and in a few years I'll get double that.

Is that greed? Sure. But can you blame them? They know they are generational level talent and that the money is there so waiting it out means they make more, with a risk of a Juan Gonzalez situation always being there (he rejected over $140 million and ended up having just 1 more year good enough for that kind of cash, making around $40-$50 mil more the rest of his career instead).

Going year to year with your own players is usually the best approach.
The risk is all on the players.
If they want to sign a team friendly deal, you do it.
Otherwise, it's best to wait.
Bo was very neutral and only signed for his arbitration years.
There wasn't even a team option for a single extra year.

Defense is mostly a young man's game.
Players have been able to hit at an advanced age, but they still lose defensive value. 

The Braves signed Ha-Seong Kim for 20M and he broke his hand.
They really could use a right-handed shortstop now.

There are agents who will cite the Bobby Witt Jr. extension and ask their clients if they want to risk leaving $100 mil or so on the table by locking in a long term extension while they're young. If the player is content with a proper retirement and family time in his late 30s, he goes one way. If the player wants to someday buy a WNBA team or get a piece of an English football club, he goes the other. Never having been in that situation myself, I won't judge anyone who takes the "he who dares, wins" approach.

The big problem with the Yesavage 80% projection is that Dan is using 107 IP.  Yesavage threw 140 innings all told last year including the playoffs, and the 80% projection for him surely would be for him to throw at least that many innings during the regular season, with something in the tank for the playoffs.  

Lets look closer at those ranges for ZiPS 20-50-80 percentile - OPS+ then WAR

• Barger: 86-105-125 0.6-1.9-3.2 517 PA
• Santander: 87-107-127 0.0-1.3-2.5 508 PA
• Schneider: 89-106-127 1.1-2.2-3.1 444 PA
• Lukes: 84-103-122 0.8-1.8-2.8 392 PA
• Loperfido: 75-96-113 0.3-1.4-2.5 483 PA
• Schreck: 80-101-121 0.4-1.4-2.3 422 PA

I added Schreck as his projection is right there with Santander. Kind of surprised that Santander's spread is as big or bigger than the kids. Basically these scream 'play Barger and Schneider, bench Santander'. I'd be willing to bet strongly that the Jays internal reports are coming up similar now. Santander looked like a good power guy when the Jays OF looked dead in the water, but now with Springer's range being 98-115-134 0.9-2.2-3.3 (last year was beyond any belief) one has to figure a guy like Santander has no spot on this team beyond PH. Now, he might prove me (and others) wrong like Springer did. But I can't imagine the Jays want to risk a playoff slot on that. To me the ideal is Barger in RF, Schneider/Lukes in LF, Varsho CF, Loperfido & Schreck in AAA waiting for an injury, Straw as the backup. Santander mixed in as needed (PH for Gimenez or Clement late - Schneider moves to 2B, Santander in LF or RF). Can't see it happening, but right now that is the best use of resources imo.

Adjust Yesavage to 150 IP (what I figure the Jays are shooting for - 30 starts, 5 IP per start regular season) - then his 0.5-1.7-2.4 becomes 0.7-2.4-3.4 which seems more realistic.

How heavily are they weighting Santander's 2025? His DWar seems negative and his OWar higher than his WAR (I know you can't just straight add them) - perhaps he's destined to be a 50% DH, alternating with Springer? Give them both some fielding time, but not too many games in a row, to keep them fresh? If he can hit 120+ OPS+, and Springer puts up a similar number, then if Springer doesn't want to come back, we already have the replacement DH signed at a reasonable cost.

Over the 3300 PAs in his career, Santander has generated 8.8 fWAR or 1.7 fWAR/650 PA.  He's 31 and coming off an injury season where he was terrible when in the lineup.  If you project him at his career norms as a hitter (which if you ask me is a bit of a stretch given the nature of his injuries and the aging curve), the loss in defensive and baserunning value is enough to get him where ZiPS has him.  

He had back to back 3 WAR season than -1 WAR last year.
He's a streaky hitter, so 194 ABs aren't that significant.
Lukes was worth 2 WAR last year.

Using WAR to evaluate a guy like Santander is a bit silly. He's never going to look good through that sphere. He's a power guy that's it. There's a need for that player and using baserunning and defense to evaluate is a bit silly.

If you take away pitch framing and lower his defense, Alejandro Kirk would still be a really good player at the C position because of his hit tool. If you use WAR on him in this scenario he would be near replacement level BECAUSE WAR DE-VALUES OFFENSE AFTER FACTORING DEFENSE from certain players.

2 years ago Schwarber hit 47 HR and was barely above replacement according to WAR (0.9). That's when WAR stopped being a nice summary statistic for me to all players.

" For what it's worth, Davis Schneider has comparable isolated power over his career to Santander. And Schneider is healthy and turning 27 in a week."

That's not worth much to me when comparing the two since once player accumulated those stats in a platoon advantage with lots of rest compared to the other who played full seasons and all pitchers.

Schwarber was so so bad in the field that his defensive War leapt up dramatically upon moving to DH, which is super rare since the DH penalty for dwar is huge by itself.

But that year he was just a moderately above average hitter (even with 47hr), while being an absolute disaster on the field.

the good news is that Santander's nowhere near that bad in the field.

Schwarber 2023 - 0.7 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR - hit 47 HR 104 RBI's in the 90's and earlier he'd be viewed as a run producer but now we have far more tools for measurement. He was a LF/DH and had a 197 Avg (lots of walks helped his OBP get to 343). Just 19 doubles and 1 triple to go with the 47 HR so basically he either hit a homer or walked or K's (215 that year). -20 DRS in LF, -18 OAA how the heck do you do that in just 103 games? He wasn't just bad, he was horrid out there. I bet Devon Whyte could do better today and he is 63. Sheesh. For comparison, Varsho was a +10 and +12 in LF in 23/24. So he was further from the average LF than Varsho was and Varsho was WOW out there. Yikes. That is how you make defense take away all of your offense. Not easy, but it can be done.

For comparison the worst DRS for a LF since they started recording it in 2002 for the Jays is Adam Lind (who was a poor 1B) in 2009 with -11 in 409 innings (about the same pace as Schwarber in 2023 but the Jays figured out to get him out of the OF). The worst for their older method (pre-2002) was George Bell 1988 at -11 Total Zone (explains why they wanted to make him a pure DH that year) with Joe Carter 1996 second worst.

I don’t see why home runs should be privileged over other components of the game in assessing a player’s overall worth. Is this perhaps really just one fan’s aesthetic preference for home runs? The Blue Jays have had home run hitters in the past who weren’t that valuable overall. Tony Batista. Jose Canseco.

Some of it is HR = instant run and the game boils down to scoring & preventing. Theres more complicated math that tries to balance the value of differrnt parts of the game but HR power will always be an advantage for determining one hitter's value over another

Also, HR are more important against good pitchers and/or when playing on lesser offenses.

Basically because if you do walks/singles you need to put a bunch of those together and against top pitchers (or in weak offenses) those are less likely. Where HR score always regardless of if you are linking up multiple base runners (although obviously multiple run HR are better than single HR).

I think some are missing the point. My point is simply that using one stat (WAR) undervalues players like Santander so applying WAR to show that Santander isn't very good is a poor decision to me. My preference is to use multiple stats not just WAR especially with one dimensional players. It's the same deal with Bo, he's worth less when factoring in defense and this penalizes him. For a team that has many strong defensive players and not enough power hitters I'd argue an offensive hitter like Santander, Schwarber or Bichette adds even more value which WAR can never account for.

they do a pretty good job of figuring out each event's Run Value prior to combining them into a wraa/wrc+ stat tbh.

they do weigh HRs as more valuable obviously.

It would make more sense to me to look at Santander's OWAR when comparing him to possibly comparable players like Schneider.

Santander OWAR
2025 -1
2024 3.7 (full season)
2023 2.8 (full season)

Schneider OWAR
2025 1.4
2024 0.2 (full season)
2023 1.8

You need offense at some positions over defense especially with Varsho patrolling CF

As of now, I think roles are as follows: A bunch can change and will obviously. Santander, if healthy, will start most games. Jays seem reluctant to give Schneider too much run so think he'll be mostly vs LHP. Think Lukes will play pretty regularly too because Schneider loves him (too much for my liking). Schreck might be in conversation too if one of the lefties gets hurt. WAR is still a useful tool but WAR isn't equal. You can see that by what teams value when they sign players in free agency. Teams pay for offense way more than they pay for defense.

Today David Popkins was featured in an interview where he said something to the effect (talking about Barger) of "sometimes its better to focus on the positive instead of trying to change a weakness. You should listen to the full interview yourself but I cam away from it thinking "maybe they plan to use Barger as a platoon this year." He goes into details about how trying to correct a weakness usually requires a sacrifice elsewhere (from a strength sometimes). He also talked about the tweak he gave to Springer near the end of spring training.

Teams pay for offense

I would qualify this by saying that (1) teams will pay a lot more for *elite* offense (for example, corner outfielders Tucker and Soto) than they'll pay for one-dimensional offense (corner outfielder Santander), and (2) teams will pay a *lot* for great two-way players (Mike Trout, Bobby Witt Jr., Trea Turner, Corey Seager).

If a player can hit home runs, that's great, but if it comes with a low OBP and poor baserunning and defense, that player is not going to be that desirable on the FA market.

If Santander hit 35+ HR with an OBP like Schwarber (career .346) or Alonso (.341), he would get paid like them, too.

So basically what you're saying is "yes" teams pay for offense but not as much for some players as others (of course) and also if a player can't get on base then they're not desirable even if they can crank out HRs. Can you name a free agent with those numbers that was not desirable or signed?

"I would qualify this by saying that (1) teams will pay a lot more for *elite* offense (for example, corner outfielders Tucker and Soto) than they'll pay for one-dimensional offense (corner outfielder Santander).

Yes, obviously, Soto is going to make way more than Santander but teams are going to pay for any offense more than they will similar WAR for defense.

"You need offense at some positions over defense especially with Varsho patrolling CF"

I think many are sleeping on Varsho's offense. He's a career 99 OPS+ hitter - so not weak, average. More over, last year he had a 125 OPS+ with a 833 OPS after unlocking more power/better swing (310 ISO, 88.5 EV, 40.5% Hard Hit). In addition to the truly elite defense, he's also a plus base runner.

So while your point may have partially been the corner OF can arguably be weaker at defense because Varsho's defense is so good, it isn't accurate to point at Varsho as an offensive weakness.

Davis Schneider hit 2 home runs off position players last season (so season stats are skewed), and was heavily shielded by the Jays based on what they perceived to be favorable matchups. I don't think it's fair to say that he's a better bat or better option than Santander at this point. Maybe that will end up being the case, as Santander is coming off injury in his 30's so there's no guarantee he bounces back, but you have to let Santander play everyday to see if a bounce back is possible. If it is, then WAR aside, he's going to add a different dynamic to this offense.

One thing is for sure, Springer's resurgence has made Santander a clunky fit in this roster. I'm guessing the team wasn't expecting George's dead cat bounce in 2025.

Michael you're way off. I'm not pointing out Varsho's a weakness offensively. I'm pointing out that his defense is so good that it makes it easier to insert a bat-only player beside him in the field.

So over 3 seasons it is Santander oWAR 5.5 vs Schneider 3.4. Schneider only has 822 PA over that time vs Santander's 1542, even that out and Schneider goes up to 6.4. Of course, that is Schneider's entire ML career vs Santander's 2 best years and his terrible first one here. Basically I have trouble seeing how it is likely for Santander to be a better player than Schneider even before factoring in defense.

Varsho's range in CF may mitigate Santander's defensive shortcomings a bit. But there are many defensive situations where Varsho would be unable to help Santander out (moving back, in, or toward the line to make a catch or field a hit; making competent throws). Varsho would not be a panacea for a poor-fielding corner outfielder.

Because John you're looking at assisted numbers for Schneider. It's like taking a LHP from the bullpen like Mayza and using his stats to compare against a pitcher that didn't have the same ease of opposition. Anybody can take a players strength and project it over a full season but it's a false assumption and result WHEN you compare it to a player that played full time with strengths and weaknesses in those numbers.

I'm shocked how many people think Santander's dead money and dead skills. I view him as the likely home run leader on this team in 2026 which is sorely needed especially with the clean up hitter now playing for the Mets. If you think Schneider can be better than Santander then I ask if you would bat him 4th. I am confident many managers would use Santander 4th but never Schneider on a daily basis.

The arguments against Santander having much value are basically a repeat of Springer's critics last off season. Call out the previous year performance sure but be careful not to act like the next season is a foregone conclusion to repeat the same performance. Last yesr at this time the complaints were that Springer had little WAR value, was declining and borderline unusable defensively and could be replaced with AAAA players. Look how that turned out by relying on stats and disregarding the possibility of injury or a prolonged slump.

Anthony Santander protected the vaunted Orioles line ups and has the HR experience and the power, one bad year from injury doesn't become his new norm and using a cumulative stat like WAR evaluates the single player not the team. Blue Jays are better off with Santander and his 2-3 WAR that comes with 30+ bombs.

You seem to both be overvaluing HR and overvaluing Santander’s ability to hit them.

His 44hr year at age 29 was a huge outlier over his usual ~30hr pace.

I'm counting on him to hit 30 HR or more not 44 HR. No sense in moving the goal posts to 40HR or more.

Springer led the team with 32 HR in 2025
Vlad was 2nd with 23 HR

Not hard to envision Santander leading the team. Before 2025 he hit 44, 28 and 33 HR. He's 31 years old the same age as Bregman and Bellinger... he's 5 years younger than Springer.

What I see here is a devaluation of Santander around a narrative that his WAR is bad compared to other AAAA players, his HR power is sapped, he's only going to get worse because he's 31! And of course he is grossly overpaid. On the other hand if he can hit 25 HR or more then he's one of the top power bats and leads this team in power which is a big boost which other players that are the same or surpass him in WAR cannot provide.

Defense does matter dalimon5, as does hitting singles and doubles. That is what kills Santander's WAR. He is 1 dimensional - it is a good one to have but he is good for HR only. Lifetime 305 OBP is horrid unless you are great on defense (he isn't). A 110 OPS+ lifetime isn't enough to overcome being a DH who plays the OF. He has 4 years where he hit enough to justify playing him - 2020, 2022-2024. In those last 3 years (we all tend to ignore 2020 due to it being just 60 games) he was worth 16 RAA (runs above average) on offense. His bWAR was 8.1. Lets see what FG says - wRC of 87-92-97, xwOBA of 352-319-324 (264 last year). fWAR of 8.0. BP has him DRC+ 121-110-116 for those years, 7.4 WARP (they factor in quality of opponent, etc.) over 1968 PA or a WARP of 2.3/600 PA - and this is the peak Santander we're talking about (ages 27-29), not his current self (age 31 coming off an injury).

BP isn't a fan of Davis Schneider - as they do take into account all those extra things (facing weaker opponents, protected from facing RHP) thus gets a DRC+ of 99 lifetime, 123 last year. 2.6 WARP in 822 PA (1.9 per 600 PA or slightly below average regular).

What I'm basically saying is Santander at peak was a solid hitter (Bo level) but had nothing else to offer, not defense, not speed, nada. He was just a touch more valuable than Davis Schneider over that stretch when you factor in everything. That isn't a compliment. Now, what do the Jays do? With his contract they have to play him at the start of 2026 at least, and if he is underwater come June/July they'll have to decide if they dump him or keep him on the bench. If he gets back to his age 27-29 self, you leave him out there. If Schneider/Lukes/Straw hit when given a shot they might force the issue - if they don't then Santander gets a longer leash.

Bottom line: Santander ended up being a very poor signing unless he returns to peak form. He was basically a guy they signed late as options to improve the offense were disappearing and the team was trying to be decent in '25 after a disaster in '24. Now the question becomes if he is a sunk cost (write off) or if something can be gained by playing him. I can see holding him unless someone is willing to eat most of his contract. But to say WAR undervalues him is a mistake - this is a guy who is a DH only and we have a solid DH only guy in Springer already. Next year Santander will be 32 and if he doesn't return to prime form this year he is a write off.

I will wait to see the results this summer and will compare them to these posts at that point. As of now I am enjoying reading the posts on Springer this time last year. Quite enjoyable actually...

Heh. Good pont dalimon5 - I try to add in a condition - there are 1001 things we fans never know behind the scenes that the team does know. Healthy, long term projections using far more robust systems than we have access to, etc. Those told the Jays that Springer wasn't the nightmare we saw in '24 - doubt it told them he'd be the monster he was in '25 but they knew it was possible I suspect. Right now they must feel similar about Santander. Last year I'd have happily gave Springer away for a bucket of balls. Same now with Santander. I hope I'm as wrong now as i was then. Sadly, odds are Santander as he goes into his 30's, will not rebound strong enough to make it worthwhile holding onto him. But we'll see I guess. The plus is there are 101 guys waiting for a shot if he falters - Lukes-Schneider-Loperfido-Straw all have ML experience now, mix in Schreck and we have a lot of options to play with.

Much more fun to dream when the team is coming off a World Series appearance and near victory. Sooooo close. But right now the team is in FAR better shape than last year.

FYI: FanGraphs has their top 40 up for the Jays prospects now. Basically Yesavage and the cross your fingers crew. Top 100's are 50+ generally, Yesavage a 60, Nimmala and Bloss are 50's. Parker-Tiedemann-King 45's. Yeah, it is a weak system with TONS of 40's and 35+'s - if a few of those 'meh' guys can push through then things change quickly from a 'blah' system to a good one, but also it could become a disaster just as easily. For comparison Seattle has 2 55's, and 6 50's, but just 25 35+ or better vs the Jays 40. The Dodgers have a 55 and 4 50's, with 52 35+ or better in total (rich likely to stay rich). No AL East teams other than the Jays have been done yet - I suspect the Jays are behind them all for top prospects, but having 40 who could be something is a nice sign.

HR/650 career

Santander 31
Springer 30
Guerrero 28
Varsho 27
Barger 25
Schneider 25

Hitting by age 28:

Santander: 2450pa, 111hr, .307obp, 107wrc+
Varsho: 2387pa, 99hr, .295obp, 99wrc+


One is supposed to be a slap hitting defensive CF, the other a middle of the lineup no-D slugger.

Two things can be right:

1) the Jays "panicked" to sign a one dimensional slugger at the peak of his value and would take it back in a second if they could.

2) Santander is better than what his 2025 season showed and could be a ~2 WAR/30 HR hitter in 2026.

I tend to agree that the WAR for Santander isn't as important as the counting stats. He's entirely a one trick pony. He does one thing well and nothing else. So he needs to hit 35 home runs. Whatever that leads to as far as WAR is secondary. If he's not hitting 30+ home runs, then he's likely unplayable anyway, so that's the important metric to look at.

That's a nice and simple summary SK. It's really not that complicated. No point in saying Santander is done because he is now bad and other players can be better than bad.

Let him hit 30 or more HRs to show his value. The other guys can't do that. If Santander can't do it then yes he's toast and likely a very expensive pinch hitter with nobody to fill that spot anyway.

I'll want to see a healthy 31 year old lose that ability before writing him off as replaceable by AAAA 1-3 WAR players aided by defensive stats, versatility, base running and platooning. I've got no issues with players like Barger, Clement or Schneider being super valuable parts of the team, but they aren't middle of the order bats to product power. Like I said, if Santander can't product and must bat 7th in the line up then yeah he's toast.

Ugly, I see your patented cherry picked stats. Varsho was never thought of as a slap hitter. He had lots of triples and "slap" hits in the very unique ballpark he played in in Arizona. Varsho has always been tapped for unlocked power potential. That being said his numbers in your summary are heavily buoyed by a Jose Bautista-eque 2025 in the power department. Is that sustainable because he looked like a ghost to end the season.

How the hell are Varsho's Career stats cherry picked?

the idea that we should prioritize re-establishing Santander - a 31yr old career 109wrc+ hitter with no defense - over team wins sounds kinda crazy to me tbh.


Santander deserves to be in the mix for playing time along with Lukes and Schneider, but nothing more than that. He should have to earn his playing time.

It's kind of like looking at ERA+ to determine how to make a bullpen instead of acknowledging that you can't mickey mouse your way through the heart of an order in the 8th and 9th under pressure without guys that can overpower the other hitter in the 8th and 9th. ERA+ can make you think stat darlings can work well based on numbers but the reality is you're likely going to want the pitcher with the best control, velocity and strikeout ability in that position. Most numbers say Rogers should be closing the 9th yet nobody has used him as a closer...because he doesn't profile there.

It's the same idea with Santander and his one dimensional power over alternatives like Schneider, Loperfido, Straw or Varsho. You want someone like him (if he can hit 30 HR for you) to bat behind Vlad because he profiles best there. Sure WAR will tell you he is not as valuable as some of those other guys but in a real life situation pitchers will simply pitch around Kirk or whichever non-power player you put in that spot to get out of an inning. At least with Santander there is a decent chance of strikeout or home run.

And just so I understand the argument against, you're proposing an OF of Schneider, Varsho and Barger/Straw with Santander on the bench while Springer DHs? Who's your clean up hitter, Varsho? Barger? Schneider?

RHP
Springer DH
Okamoto 3B
Vlad 1B
Barger OF
Kirk C
Varsho OF
Schneider 2B
Loperfido OF
Gimenez SS

LHP
Springer DH
Okamoto 3B
Vlad 1B
Varsho OF
Schneider OF
Clement 2B
Kirk C
Gimenez SS
Straw OF

i don't know why you keep talking about WAR.

Santander, as a hitter alone, has lots to do to prove he's an upgrade to the lineup offensively.

And i see you've slotted Okamoto into the 2-hole there - which you kind of have to do if you want Santander in the lineup, but it sure is assuming a lot of Okamoto. What happens if he can't hack it in the 2-hole?

but you're right, he has to work in the 2-hole if we want to force Santander into the lineup.

but more importantly, you're forgetting Lukes, who earned his way to the 2-hole last year, altogher.

Schneider, Barger, Clement, Gimenez and Lukes is one too many platoon-ish bats to have in a line up at one time.

gonna average out zips/steamer projections for just On Base Percentage and Isolated Power.

On Base percentage

1B Guerrero .379
C Kirk .351
DH/OF Springer .343
LF/RF Lukes .335
3B Okamoto .331
OF/2B Schneider .329
(OF Schreck .323)
OF/3B Barger .316
SS/2B Gimenez .313
C Heineman .310
LF/RF Santander .309
2B/SS Clement .307
CF Straw .296
CF Varsho .292


Isolated Power

1B Guerrero .225
CF Varsho .219
LF/RF Santander .216
3B Okamoto .201
OF/3B Barger .194
DH Springer .192
OF/2B Schneider .188
(OF Schreck .170)
C Kirk .150
LF/RF Lukes .136
SS/2B Gimenez .129
2B/SS Clement .127
C Heineman .104
CF Straw .085

"but more importantly, you're forgetting Lukes, who earned his way to the 2-hole last year, altogher"

Lukes had a .323 OBP last year including .276 in the second half. He was 8th on the team in WRC+. Not sure how that's earning anything. Santander was clearly hurt last year but was one of the better hitters in baseball the previous 3 years with a WRC+ of 123. Maybe you think Lukes is a 110 WRC+ kind of guy and if that's the case, he should play a lot. I don't. I think he's probably a roughly 90-100 WRC+ corner OF and he's OLDER than Santander. In most of the second half and in the playoffs, he looked overmatched. I think teams just took a couple hundred ABs to learn how to pitch to him but have figured it out. Pitchers stopped walking him and started challenging him more which led to a few more HRs and worse numbers everywhere else. His BB% by month 11.4, 11.3, 13, 8.8, 5.5, 5.1. Lukes a is a very useful player because he can play almost anywhere and against almost anyone but he isn't going to be particularly good at anything. Jays don't need a defensive player in LF. They need someone who can hit and for me Lukes is 3rd (or maybe 4th) best LF in that regard.

"Santander, as a hitter alone, has lots to do to prove he's an upgrade to the lineup offensively."


2022-25
Santander: 116 wRC+, .332 wOBA, 2189 PA
Bichette: 120 wRC+, .339 wOBA, 2262 PA

That sample includes one awful, injury riddled season for both players (2024 for Bo, 2025 for Santander).

I don't particularly place high value in a player like Santander, but I think his bat is being underrated here. The bigger issue for him is whether his injury is going to hurt his performance moving forward. The bat if it resembles 2022-24 is worthy of being in the starting lineup. Lukes is a journeyman who fells off in the 2nd half and Schneider was mostly used in platoon or what the club felt were advantageous situations for him. I wouldn't consider either of them over Santander at this point, though that could change during the season.

Glevin and SK great points to re-iterate. There is definitely a recency bias against Santander.

5 years and 160,000,000 is reported NYY offer to Cody Bellinger. Should the Blue Jays top that offer to steal him? It's roughly 32,000,000/year.

2026 OF is a mix of Schneider, Loperfido, Shreck, Clase and Lukes

It's all between the Yankees and the Mets.
No reason to get involved here.

Should the Blue Jays top that offer? Yes.

I don't see any real appeal of Bellinger - a few years ago, sure, but now? Nah. He isn't good enough on defense to put in CF, not a good enough hitter 123 OPS+ last year, 108 the year before, his career has been a roller coaster. Locking him in for 5 at $30+ per seems insane to me. Going beyond that, extremely insane. If the Jays were desperate for a CF, or even a corner OF he'd be worth looking at, but that was last winter. He has big time 'buyers regret' written all over him imo. He might give you a 5 WAR season, or a 2, or a negative. His past 5 bWAR's are (1.6)-1.3-4.8-2.2-5.1. That is a scary guy if you are a GM. BP has WARP's as 0.3-0.8-2.7-2.5-3.8 which is a lot less variable but also not as impressive on the highs. I saw the appeal before, but like I said now is not the right time for him for the Jays.

Right now I'd rather the Jays went deeper into the pitching well and grabbed Framber Valdez. If we just want raw power might as well sign Eugenio Suárez (49 HR last year, 30+ 4 of past 5 years) of course, he is a 3B who used to be a SS and who can play 1B. Hardly needed right now unless he can play 2B (no idea if he can - last time he did was 2012 in A ball).

He's aging.
He was great at Yankees Stadium, average elsewhere.
I usually don't buy too much about the turf injuring players, but he was limping badly last year and I am not aware of a particular play that led to that.

Comparing Santander's best years against average years for Bo doesn't scream "they're the same". Santander was several years older over that span.

In fact, they both have similar career AB totals (Santander has maybe 100-200 more) - Bo's career WAR is 2x that of Santander.

Unless he hires Joey Bats and has a breakout late in his career, there's no way he hits better than Bo, or even close to it, over the next few years.

Let's face it: Santander will most likely end up being Kendrys Morales round 2 for Atkins. Quick/panic move after losing out on someone else, with similar dismal results.

You're literally just rehashing the issue some posters have (myself included): using WAR to undervalue Santander's bat.

not a good enough hitter 123 OPS+ last year, 108 the year before

Baseball Reference says that Bellinger's OPS+ the last three years has been 139, 111, 125. That seems like a very good recent track record (three full seasons) for a good-fielding corner outfielder who can also play CF and 1B in a pinch.

The roller coaster came before that and seems like a long time ago.

Interestingly, BRef's highest "Similarity Score" for Bellinger is Teoscar Hernandez.

I'm guessing the Blue Jays are unlikely to make another big move at this point, unless they can snag a value player like Kwan in a trade. Probably they want to keep some financial powder dry for the summer trade deadline, in case a difference-maker like Skubal becomes available.

Bellinger is obviously an upgrade but also obviously will be massively overpaid for who he is. I'd want him but not as his cost. I don't mind being a bit stupid with spending for the Soto/Vlad/Tucker level but Bellinger is someone who should make sense financially.

Fangraphs prospect list isn't very good. They have very detailed prospect stuff which is often interesting but their ranking things are weak IMO.

Well, this whole 'don't factor in defense' seems crazy to me unless you are comparing DH's. Suppose you cut Bellinger to just hitting - last 5 years wRC+: 47-83-135-108-125 - would you pay $30 mil a year for that? A GM who does (ignoring defense/baserunning/etc.) would be nuts and out of a job. A big chunk of his value is his versatility - Bellinger can play all 3 OF positions and 1B. However, here that is secondary as we have 101 guys who can play everywhere. Not long ago (November) Bellinger's ability to cover 1B and all of the OF would've had significant value. But we have Okamoto now who can cover 1B when needed (putting Barger or Clement at 3B) and was a gold glove equivalent there in Japan.

There is a reason Santander had to wait most of the winter to get a deal, then only got a heavily deferred one - so his AAV is only $14.7 mil per year, or less than Gimenez is getting paid. Santander's past 5 years wRC+ is 92-121-118-128-61 btw. So very similar to Bellinger but with the worst year last year instead.

As I said, if all you want is homers then sign Eugenio Suárez (past 5 wRC+: 85-132-105-115-125 with 20+ HR in all 5, 30+ in 4 of them) - he has more power than anyone here outside of maybe Vlad. But the Jays didn't chase him, they went for Okamoto instead who has maybe 20 HR power and more overall skills (including defense). Remember, we didn't have Bo for the ALDS or ALCS and Santander was useless during them (200 average, no extra base hits, just 2 RBI) so raw power wasn't what got the Jays to the World Series - well, OK, it was but from other unexpected guys plus Vlad going nuts. We still have Kirk, Barger, Springer, Varsho, and Gimenez - the guys who hit 2+ homers during the playoffs. 2 of the 3 who hit 1 HR in the playoffs are still here (Clement & Schneider) - only Bo is gone.

The obsession with power always seems crazy to me. Yes, homers are fun and do help a team win, but so does defense and getting on base. I watched the late 90's Jays who had TONS of power (Delgado, Green, Canseco, etc.) - heck, 4 over 30 HR (2 were over 40) in 2000 but just 83 wins. The 1985 team with 99 wins had no one with 30+ HR, the 92/93 teams had 1 guy crack 30 HR each year (Joe Carter both times). It takes a LOT more than power to win. I'd like more stolen bases myself (tons of fun to watch, disrupts pitchers and fielders), but that is only coming if they trade for a guy like Kwan or for super-fun find a way to get Elly De La Cruz out of Cincinnati (they'd be nuts to trade him imo, but he rejected a contract worth over $200 mil from them already so odds are he is there for the minimum then off as a FA).

John, are 2021 and 2022 (Bellinger's outlier seasons) really important at this point? He has hit well for his last three seasons from 2023-2025 (1781 PA total) and has a career 119 wRC+. He posted 4.9 fWAR / 5.1 bWAR last year.

I advocated signing him a couple of off-seasons ago and people questioned that stance, saying that 2023 was a BABIP-driven fluke, but he has actually been pretty good since then (7 fWAR, 7.3 bWAR in 282 games).

I agree that he's not the ideal acquisition, but the Blue Jays are in a situation where each marginal win is very valuable. If he gets you an extra win or two, maybe that is the difference between winning the division and winning a WC spot, or winning a WC spot and missing the playoffs altogether.

But as mentioned, I think the Blue Jays will pass on him and look for an upgrade via trade, either now or in the summer.

I *don't* think Santander is washed

I *don't* think the Morales comp is fair at this point

I *don't* think he's likely to replace Bo's contribution (Okamoto might)

I would still be open to finding a trade because his skill set doesn't seem to fit the project here but I don't think it is a matter of urgency since they didn't add Tucker nor do I think you need to eat a ridiculous amount of the remaining deal. Take away the 2025 salary and the signing bonus and that leaves 65.5 (per Cott's) for 4 years and you could probably deal 52 or so of that (and they're already deferring 10 mil per year so the Jays' whole cut of that would be deferred money)

I would only consider his signing to be a "panic" move insofar as they saw what we saw - Springer to all appearances was washed (not an irrational conclusion for his age 35 season) and Tony was a perfectly fine choice *as the new DH*

Then Springer shocked everyone involved and suddenly you have an obvious DH out here with no DH spot available. That's baseball, stuff happens.

I'm not going to try and build a case that Lukes/Schneider/Loperfido/Shreck/Clase can produce more offense than Santander (I'm a fan of seeing what Joey can do but all the professional commentary I see doesn't feature anyone going "this guy is really good and should be playing every day! so maybe I'm wish-casting) but there's an argument to be made that he'd give back enough on defense that it's close to a push.

Which is all a lot of words to say that we're probably overthinking this by a pretty hefty margin.

"I agree that he's not the ideal acquisition, but the Blue Jays are in a situation where each marginal win is very valuable"

I don't support acquiring Bellinger. I think the Jays look pretty good right now and we should run out the first third or so of the season as is and then see where the wheels fall off -- and then acquire as needed from there. Bellinger could be a perfect acquisition for this team or an anchor around their necks. I think we should let the season tell us what's needed and not guess in January.

The responses (re: Belly signing) are all enlightening.

It’s reasonable to say wait and see, but it’s worth noting that:

-Meaningful trades typically don’t happen until right before the deadline (late July/early August), so it can be a long wait if your lineup or roster is a dollar short and a day late from the get-go

-Trades take two to tango, and depend on a robust market. It’s not always easy to pull off effective deadline moves, as we saw in 2022-2023

-The AL East looks very competitive this year, with Boston perhaps being the current leader of the pack after their moves this offseason including the recent addition of Ranger Suarez. The Blue Jays are in a solid position, but you don’t want to be complacent and find yourself playing catch-up

“Trades take two to tango”

* Inadvertent alliteration

Luis Robert isn't good but the Mets just traded for him and he's an OF so maybe that means something.

I'd be okay with signing Bellinger in light of the weak free agent classes, if the alternative is resigning Varsho next year for 20+ million/year or if Rogers maintains a top 5 payroll moving forward since it means you can carry that anchored contract (Belly) without sacrificing competitiveness. It also saves you prospects so you don't have to trade for an OF like they did for Barsho with Moreno.

Line up needs a solid LH bat.

Where do you put a solid LH bat? Barger hopefully is one in RF, Santander is a switch hitter, Varsho a LH, so really the only possible opening is 2B or SS. That gets you Donovan & CJ Abrams - both decent but probably overpriced given the market.

The Mets will pay him 20M + a 24M tax hit.
It likely means they don't know how to spend.

John, the LH bat is more of a solution if you don't fully believe in Schneider/Barger/Clement/Lukes as 5 players of a platoon tandem.. but even so there are strong chances of an injury to one of the regular OF and also general resting that needs to be considered. I don't think the FO wants to use 2 of those 4 guys every day as regulars. Gimenez is a borderline platoon bat as well.

The FO needs to do something, everyone knows there is a bat missing which was expected to be Bo or Tucker. In the playoffs we saw the optimal line ups. What did we see? It's still a bit of a blur but weren't Gimenez, Clement, Lukes, Schneider and Barger all used as platoon bats? Assuming Varsho and Santander play every day and Schneider/Barger platoon OF that means you have to get a an INF or you need to run Clement and Gimenez out there every day at two positions and against weak sided pitchers. Lukes and Straw would be you back ups.

Fat chance Santander, Springer and Varsho don't miss a bunch of games.



On the other hand you could just put Barger out there in the OF full time and Schneider at INF to platoon with Gimenez. In either of these cases you have Barger and Clement facing weak handed pitching too many times and you also don't have a strong back up. Based on what we saw last year I'd imagine a signing or trade of an OF or INF is about to happen.

One other point I think is important to remember is that hitters cost way less than pitchers do in trades during the season. I expect Jays offense to be around the same as last year, maybe slightly worse but if they have a hole in the lineup come trade deadline, the Jays can add at a reasonable cost.

Given Clement set a record for most hits in 1 playoff season I don't think he was platooned. Barger seemed to breakout then too with over a 1000 OPS. At the very least both have earned a shot at full time play. Schneider and Lukes are both very solid 4th OFs imo. I wouldn't be shocked by a deal for a very good hitter, but it is hard to find one who'd be realistically available.

They also have guys at AAA who can be given a shot if they have a hole in June.

The pitching should be good. The defense should be excellent.
They don't need anybody to outperform, they just need a guy or two to come up with a big hit every day.
It's not a lineup that's necessarily top heavy. It should grind opposite pitchers.

It's a good enough team with the improved pitching to perform well but they will definitely need to improve a line up by end of year if they want to be serious. Varsho, Clement, Barger, Gimenez all in the line up against a RHP could be an easy line up for opposing pitchers to work through.

if you actually believe in Santander's bat as much as you say you do, then the jays aren't short bats at all.

Bellinger on a high AAV short term deal (similar to Bo’s contract) is the only way I’d be interested in him. A long term deal would be a bad decision. The question the Jays would have to ask themselves is whether they think Bellinger is at least a 2 win improvement over Santander. If yes, then they should probably consider it. If Bellinger is more of a 2-3 WAR player then it’s less likely to be impactful (unless 2025 is reflective of Santander’s performance moving forward, which I doubt).

I say wait.  Bellinger will be extremely expensive and I the splits suggest that he benefited significantly from Yankee Stadium last year. In a neutral environment is he really better than Harrison Bader? I'm skeptical. 
I get that the lineup is weaker than what some had envisioned when they heard that we might get Tucker or Bo. But it is still very competitive.  Okamoto was a smart pivot (or hedge depending on what they knew) by management and there is depth with as much upside as downside risk. 
Would I hand out some spring training invites?  Sure.  Would I jump on value if Bellinger price drops or Bader comes cheap?  Absolutely.  But failing that I think waiting and seeing what is available is a prudent approach. 

Top OF free agents next year:

Springer
Happ
Grisham
Hoerner
Varsho

What's the price going to be for Varsho and Hoerner? I'd guess 25 million to 30 million a year depending on length.

I fully believe in Santander's bat returning close to his 2022-2024 level, and still think the Jays' lineup is a bat short. They got production from Springer, Varsho, and Straw that they shouldn't be counting on happening again in 2026. The playoff offense was carried by Vladdy, so if he's an elite hitter and not just a very good one the offense will be good, but other than him there aren't any players you can reasonably expect significantly better production from.

I think Varsho is probably due some regression but he also only played half the year so I actually expect better overall production. I expect significant regression only from Springer and slight regression from guys like Lukes, Schneider, and Straw. I expect better from Santander, Vlad, and maybe Barger. Subtract Bo and add Okamoto and overall feels like slightly worse but around the same. It does lack a middle of the order bat but makes up for a lot of that in depth of the lineup. Jays have what, 11 guys who are 2+ WAR players if they are playing regularly (not counting backup catcher).

Toronto had the 8th-highest BABIP in MLB in 2025. We’ll see if they can maintain that position in 2026. Adding another good hitter would help offset some BABIP regression this year.

Bellinger has signed with the Yankees.

So looks like either the Jays make a trade or stand pat. Not much else in free agency that makes sense for them.

5 years $162M for Bellinger.

The news dropped just as the Mets were having their Bo Bichette introductory press conference.

Crazy contract for Bellinger but Yankees backed themselves into a corner. They spent a lot of money just to bring back mostly the same team.

AL East, hitting only, Steamer+Zips


1B Guerrero (27): 650pa, .381obp, .228iso, 148wrc+
DH Springer (36): 579pa, .343obp, .192iso, 119wrc+
3B Okamoto (30): 506pa, .330obp, .204iso, 116wrc+
C Alejandro (27): 460pa, .351obp, .150iso, 116wrc+
RF Barger (26): 475pa, .316obp, .194iso, 108wrc+
LF Santander (31): 532pa, .309obp, .216iso, 107wrc+
CF Varsho (29): 470pa, .292obp, .219iso, 101wrc+
2B Clement (30): 485pa, .308obp, .127iso, 95wrc+
SS Gimenez (27): 523pa, .313obp, .129iso, 93wrc+

OF Lukes (31): 327pa, .334obp, .136iso, 106wrc+
UT Schneider (27): 372pa, .329obp, .188iso, 106wrc+
C Heineman (35): 142pa, .310obp, .104iso, 80wrc+
OF Straw (32): 272pa, .296obp, .085iso, 72wrc+

OF Schreck (25): 211pa, .323obp, .170iso, 99wrc+
IF Jimenez (25): 236pa, .320obp, .123iso, 89wrc+




RF Judge (34): 630pa, .419obp, .305iso, 177wrc+
1B Rice (27): 488pa, .331obp, .225iso, 122wrc+
2B Chishholm (28): 546pa, .319obp, .204iso, 111wrc+
DH Stanton (36): 366pa, .304obp, .235iso, 111wrc+
CF Grisham (29): 508pa, .328obp, .197iso, 109wrc+
LF Dominguez (23): 440pa, .327obp, .155iso, 105wrc+
C Wells (26): 423pa, .299obp, .191iso, 99wrc+
SS Volpe (25): 523pa, .294obp, .164iso, 91wrc+
3B McMahon (31): 492pa, .305obp, .161iso, 90wrc+

C Escarra (31): 259pa, .313obp, .134iso, 92wrc+
IF Rosario (30): 321pa, .299obp, .121iso, 91wrc+
UT Cabrera (27): 276pa, .304obp, .134iso, 90wrc+
UT Caballero (29): 344pa, .314obp, .114iso, 85wrc+

OF Jones (25): 292pa, .289obp, .185iso, 93wrc+
UT Rumfield (26): 291pa, .307obp, .131iso, 88wrc+




DH Anthony (22): 550pa, .367obp, .175iso, 124wrc+
1B Contreras (34): 467pa, .344obp, .193iso, 118wrc+
RF Abreu (27): 441pa, .332obp, .198iso, 113wrc+
LF Duran (29): 610pa, .326obp, .182iso, 110wrc+
2B Gonzalez (29): 328pa, .312obp, .164iso, 103wrc+
CF Rafaela (25): 546pa, .304obp, .167iso, 99wrc+
SS Story (33): 490pa, .300obp, .165iso, 95wrc+
3B Mayer (23): 382pa, .302obp, .157iso, 93wrc+
C Narvaez (27): 390pa, .311obp, .147iso, 90wrc+

UT Casas (26): 266pa, .340obp, .195iso, 114wrc+
OF Yoshida (32): 289pa, .338obp, .144iso, 110wrc+
UT Campbell (24): 345pa, .335obp, .132iso, 100wrc+
C Wong (30): 292pa, .305obp, .135iso, 88wrc+

UT Sogard (28): 349pa, .329obp, .097iso, 88wrc+
IF Hamilton (28): 252pa, .298obp, 134iso, 82wrc+

Well colour be un-impressed with the offseason now. To come away with no replacement for Bo is disappointing. This FO had to bring in pieces like Cease and Ponce... now we have a team with one less of Bo/Vlad and the following players on expiring contracts:

Kevin Gausman
George Springer
Daulton Varsho
Myles Straw
Shane Bieber
Yimi Garcia

That's a lot of players in combination with Bassitt and Bichette leaving this year. You can see Cease might replace Gausman and Kazumoto might replace Bo if you are wildly optimistic but that still leaves couple of batters in Springer and Varsho who are not covered by Santander in 2027.

Just saw a clip online of Whit Merrifield on a podcast talking about Bo and he said: "there was some stuff that went on with Bo and the Jays front office and coaching staff that I think maybe tainted that relationship a little bit", and said he wasn't surprised that Bo left and would have been more surprised had he stayed. Seems like there was something going on behind the scenes. It certainly felt like the Jays didn't have much interest in bringing him back and the feeling on Bo's end felt mutual. Probably why they pivoted to Okamoto while still maintaining interest in Tucker.

ach. bellinger signs right before i hit post.


yanks with bellinger:


LF Judge (34): 630pa, .419obp, .305iso, 177wrc+
1B Rice (27): 488pa, .331obp, .225iso, 122wrc+
RF Bellinger (30): 602pa, .328obp, .180iso, 114wrc+
2B Chishholm (28): 546pa, .319obp, .204iso, 111wrc+
DH Stanton (36): 366pa, .304obp, .235iso, 111wrc+
CF Grisham (29): 508pa, .328obp, .197iso, 109wrc+
C Wells (26): 423pa, .299obp, .191iso, 99wrc+
SS Volpe (25): 523pa, .294obp, .164iso, 91wrc+
3B McMahon (31): 492pa, .305obp, .161iso, 90wrc+

OF Dominguez (23): 440pa, .327obp, .155iso, 105wrc+
C Escarra (31): 259pa, .313obp, .134iso, 92wrc+
IF Rosario (30): 321pa, .299obp, .121iso, 91wrc+
UT Cabrera (27): 276pa, .304obp, .134iso, 90wrc+

OF Jones (25): 292pa, .289obp, .185iso, 93wrc+
UT Caballero (29): 344pa, .314obp, .114iso, 85wrc+

so.....offense only....steamer+zips wrc+ projections:



1B Guerrero (27) 148 ----- LF Judge (34) 177 ------ DH Anthony (22) 124
DH Springer (36) 119 ----- 1B Rice (27) 122 ------- 1B Contreras (34) 118
3B Okamoto (30) 116 ------ RF Bellinger (30) 114 -- RF Abreu (27) 113
C Alejandro (27) 116 ----- 2B Chishholm (28) 111 -- LF Duran (29) 110
RF Barger (26) 108 ------- DH Stanton (36) 111 ---- 2B Gonzalez (29) 103
LF Santander (31) 107 ---- CF Grisham (29) 109 ---- CF Rafaela (25) 99
CF Varsho (29) 101 ------- C Wells (26) 99 -------- SS Story (33) 95
2B Clement (30) 95 ------- SS Volpe (25) 91 ------- 3B Mayer (23) 93
SS Gimenez (27) 93 ------- 3B McMahon (31) 90 ----- C Narvaez (27) 90

OF Lukes (31) 106 -------- OF Dominguez (23) 105 -- UT Casas (26) 114
UT Schneider (27) 106 ---- C Escarra (31) 92 ------ OF Yoshida (32) 110
C Heineman (35) 80 ------- IF Rosario (30) 91 ----- UT Campbell (24) 100
OF Straw (32) 72 --------- UT Cabrera (27) 90 ----- C Wong (30) 88

OF Schreck (25) 99 ------- OF Jones (25) 93 ------- UT Sogard (28) 88
IF Jimenez (25) 89 ------- UT Rumfield (26) 88 ---- IF Hamilton (28) 82

Bellinger’s contract might be on the high end, but I wouldn’t describe it as “crazy.” He’s only 30 and should be good for at least a couple more years.

Guessing Varsho will hit free agency (no extension), as he stands to be one of the better FAs available next offseason.

Bo's father stopped working for the team (nobody reported if he resigned or was fired) a few years back and Bo was the one to break the news on a radio hit. He also has a brother who has had an open fall out with the father with accusations of abuse against him. I could be entirely wrong on some details as I'm going off of memory from x posts and the radio interview from years ago.

I recall Bo was unimpressed with Montoyo as a manager (he was one of the people who requested that he be replaced), and he was also less than enthused with the team’s management/coaching in 2024. Even though things evidently improved on this front in 2025, because of this uneven track record, Bo may have lacked confidence that the FO/manager/coaching situation would remain solid in the years to come.

Straw is only done this year if the Jays want that, if they want to keep him for relatively cheap ($8M) they can do so for either 2027 or for both 2027 and 2028. I suspect if they lose Varsho it makes sense to keep Straw. Heck if they keep Varsho at that price it may still make sense to keep Straw as a 4th/5th OF and LIDR and PR.

Michael that's a good point about Straw.

David Popkins in the podcast hit he did earlier this week which I already referenced for another topic, well he said that How as the toughest player to work with who challenged him the most but he spun positively (this was recorded before Bo signed elsewhere).

Anyhow any way you slice it the Jays are losing 200 hit player with some pop and "clutch" hitting.

The lineup clicked last year with Bo hitting cleanup. My concern is that it’s now going to feel somewhat porous without Bo (pure hitter who kept the line moving and put pressure on opposing pitchers). The decision not to upgrade the offense beyond Okamoto feels a bit pre-2025 Blue Jays to me.

The offseason otherwise has been good.

"Where do you put a solid LH bat? Barger hopefully is one in RF, Santander is a switch hitter, Varsho a LH, so really the only possible opening is 2B or SS. That gets you Donovan & CJ Abrams - both decent but probably overpriced given the market."

Donovan is overpriced for what he brings you over what you have.

Abrams would be crazy expensive if you can get him at all (and not be outbid by some other team)

I'd add to your list Brett Beaty. A lefty, with considerable upside based on his draft position and minor league performance, blocked all around in NY and a more reasonable price. His upside is too good to be their utility player.

I'm not sure what St. Louis is asking for in return for Donovan, but he seems like a potentially good fit if the price is right. As mentioned before, he's a very good hitter against RHP (career 130 wRC+), and Clement is weak offensively against RHP (but adequate against LHP).

So, against RHP, the Blue Jays could frequently use Gimenez or Clement at SS, and Donovan at 2B.

Against LHP, the Blue Jays could frequently use Clement at SS and Schneider at 2B.

Donovan would also provide utility depth in case of injury. Last year he played 2B (100 games), LF (18 games), SS (6 games), and DH (2 games). That could come in handy over the course of the long MLB season.

By way of comparison, both Bichette and Bellinger have a career 119 wRC+ against RHP. Tucker is a career 141 wRC+ against them.

Donovan's 130 wRC+ against RHP stacks up pretty well if the Blue Jays are looking for a Plan B or C to balance out the lineup.

dalimon, I don't why you don't see Okamoto as a pretty direct replacement for Bo - lose an infielder, gain an infielder. And Okamoto is projected pretty similarly by ZiPS : a 118 OPS+ while Bo is given a 121 OPS+. Might be a bit of a downgrade - and there's certainly more uncertainty with Okamoto, but very clearly he was brought in to replace Bo.

Where we really upgraded is in the starting rotation, and we got the best guy on the market in Cease and a sneaky upside play in Ponce. I remain very impressed with the offseason.

"because of this uneven track record"

So he signed with the METS???

Jimenez is out of option and should be gone  by opening day, barring some injury.

New York mostly got what they wanted with Bellinger.
It's only 5 years, It's heavily front loaded with opt outs.
So, it might end up being 2 years at 42.5M each but only paying the tax on 32M each year.

Jimenez is almost certainly off the 40 man by the end of spring unless an injury/trade happens or the Jays decide to send down a guy who doesn't deserve to be (Lukes or Schneider). With Clement & Gimenez you have SS covered nicely and Schneider/Clement cover 2B, while Okamoto/Clement/Barger cover 3B. Thus Jimenez if kept on the ML roster would just be the last guy on the bench and rarely used (one would hope).

So now what? Ideally a power LH bat, lord knows from where. The FA options are non-existent from the left side, as the best is probably Luis Arraez who is a pure singles hitter (doesn't walk, no power, no speed, no defense, but hits 300 and always put the ball in play). The best 2 players left are Framber Valdez (LH starter who gets you 190 IP nearly every year (3 of past 4)) - basically a #1/2 starter on a playoff bound team worth about 4 WAR a season, and Eugenio Suárez - a RH power hitter (49 HR last year, with 30+ 3 of the past 4) - good defense (league average roughly) at 3B which is why his WAR is always 3+. Basically a much better player than Santander but that ship has sailed and I can't see the Jays signing Suarez then shifting Okamoto to LF and Santander to the bench or doing some weird rotation of the 3 of them (plus Vlad & Springer and maybe Barger too) to make it work. But that would certainly add the 'wow' power bat everyone wants. At this point of the offseason his price might have come down enough for it to work anyways (sub $20 mil on a short term deal - safe to say he is after a LOT more).

Best LH hitters in the majors to trade for? Looking for guys not on contenders or signed long term (thus untouchable) Rafael Devers would be available I'd think, but position wise where would he go? Most of the guys I'm looking at are more 'only in your dreams' situations, not realistic. Donovan is the most realistic one even if St Louis is asking an arm and leg. I'm sure Atkins has talked with them and knows what they want. Easily the best fit for this team imo but only if St Louis wants guys in the minors (near majors) and/or some of our backup OF'ers (Lukes/Schneider/Loperfido) and/or some of our pen (Berrios, Lauer - would hate to lose Lauer but right now he is just a long man/6th starter for us but for others he might be in the rotation right now - the St Louis rotation is 5 guys with sub 2 WAR projected each so there might be a match there, then suddenly signing Valdez could make sense).

I want to see Okamoto replace Bo but it will likely take time for him to adjust like the Cubs import did. As well, it's a lot of pressure to be in the clean up spot or hitting after Vlad. It might be the most important spot in the line up to prevent pitchers completely pitching around Vlad. Springer will probably hit there and maybe Okamoto bats 2nd with his discipline/eye and then Santander 5th.

If Okamoto does not deliver the goods and any of the Buffalo boys take a step back then it could become a very weak line up before our eyes. There's a lot of risk already with Santander and the Buffalo boys imho from a hitting perspective as well as Varsho. If those guys don't deliver and Kirk goes through his patented fire and ice consistency for the season then it will be a lot of 1 and 2 run games again.

I've seen lots of chatter about going after some Cards players and I don't really get it because Jays don't need raise the floor depth guys, they need a star. Right now, Jays only have two players projected at more than 2.7 WAR but 11 players projected at 1.8 WAR or more. What good does adding another 2 WAR player do? Take playing time away from a 1.8 WAR guy? If Jays are going to trade, it should be to raise ceiling. Go get another 4 WAR player who can hit middle of the lineup. Otherwise, unless it's strategic (trading a lefty for a righty, etc...) I don't see the need for a floor move.

I hear you, Glevin, and that is why I wanted the Blue Jays to add Tucker. But as a Plan B, one way to look at Donovan is that right now, John Schneider is likely going to start Clement everyday no matter what. Clement has a career 82 wRC+ against RHP. If the Blue Jays acquire Donovan and start him in a number of those games (with Clement either starting at SS or remaining on the bench until a LHP enters the game), the Blue Jays could get a 48-point offensive bump in wRC+ in a large batch of PA during the season.

Also, Gimenez isn’t very good against RHP either, so using Donovan in place of either Clement or Gimenez against RHP, for at least 2-3 PA until a PH assignment arises against a LHP later in the game, could be quite beneficial to the team.

They need a star but that's very hard to get. It makes complete sense to me for them to add someone like Donovan for reasons Greenfrog mentions. When you look at WAR it skews the analysis to "that's not much of an upgrade," but it in fact would be a big enough upgrade to me. The Buffalo boys have WAR based on favourable match ups. For that to continue they would need a platoon partner. Gimenez and Clement make a perfect platoon. 2B is an issue with only Schneider there and his WAR would surely drop if playing a full season there and facing RHP as much as a regular would. Joe the small gap between him and Donovan would actually grow larger in WAR.

Holy smokes Mets with an off season.

not to be misunderstood - I'd pull out the stops to try to get Abrams, I'd be plenty happy to add Donovan but he's fairly much in demand and I don't know if I'd pay what might be necessary to beat out the competition (show me a deal where Shreck or Pinango is the feature piece in return and I'm overjoyed but assuming that's silly.

I readily agree that adding someone who's an ideal #2 hitter against RHP makes the team measurably better.

I would also contend that if you take the current roster and say "where can I add ONE guy to make this group measurably better?" the answer to the question is second base. But there's no sure thing that any of the guys who would do that can be had.

Agreed 100% TamRa - Abrams would be damn nice, but Washington won't be easy to deal with I'd think. Washington hasn't added much of anything this winter - no one with more than 1 year 89 days of experience - thus clearly are looking for prospects. They sucked last year (last in NL East) 96 losses, 3rd year in a row sub 2 million fans. Last 500+ season was 2019 when they won it all. CJ Abrams is easily Washington's best player but just a 97 wRC+ lifetime (107 last year at age 24). A net negative on defense much like Bo so if he is willing to move to 2B he'd be more valuable I suspect. A free agent after 2028 so he'll probably be on the market before the next good Nationals team. He likes to swing a lot (max of 40 BB in a season). 30+ SB a year. Would be nice in the 2 hole even with the poor OBP, might help him focus having a damn good leadoff guy before him in Springer and a damn good power guy after in Vlad. 20 HR a year power. He'd be an interesting get that is for sure. Washington should be willing to listen if he has shown them he won't sign long term on a team friendly deal (I'd bet strongly he has told them he won't sign one).

If anyone has other names, I'd love to hear them. I keep hoping when I dig into the numbers that I'll see someone who can help the Jays out there who could be available but I just can't seem to find anyone who wouldn't be 'yeah right, that ain't happening' like Ohtani, Soto, etc.) Ketel Marte looked like a damn good fit, but Arizona's GM is determined to not put him back on the market just yet (but probably will in May or June if they get off to a poor start).

Mets are definitely going to town now. Seems losing out on Tucker lit a fire under them. Bo, Luis Robert Jr., now Freddy Peralta. Phew. Just glad Peralta didn't go to the AL East. Bellinger back to the Yankees for 5 isn't a surprise (would've liked it if they lost him, but locking him in for over $30 mil a year for 5 seems like a meh move imo, was hoping if they got him they'd be stuck with a 7+ year deal).

Now the big questions are - who gets Valdez, who trades for Skubel if the Tigers dump him? Either could make a massive difference for any team outside of the Dodgers - so watch the Dodgers make it happen. Sigh. I'm hoping the Jays have a surprise up their sleave but I doubt it right now. My choice would be to find a deal that clears out Berrios and/or Lauer then sign Valdez at a bargain price and make the rotation a killer one with Ponce in the pen (long relief) to start the season (if everyone is healthy). Not going to find a killer bat until some club gets mid-way into the season and is sucking thus willing to trade a good/great bat.

On the very unlikely side is getting Suarez to be a 3B/1B/DH in a mix with Okamoto with Okamoto in LF as well from time to time to give Santander/Vlad/Springer days off, making it so the Schneider-Lukes pair are secondary. That'd create a big logjam but have a TON of power added with someone on the bench everyday who can crank one at any moment - unless one of those guys can play an acceptable 2B in which case Clement becomes a super-backup instead/platoon at SS.

Sure, Donavan is a small upgrade but he's cheap and not a FA until 2028 so he's going to cost a ton. You want to trade say, King and Sanchez for what is a very small improvement? I don't. Save your bullets for a difference maker. Sure, it would be nice to get a good #2 hitter vs RHP but batting order doesn't actually matter very much at all. If there's some good value to upgrade somewhere, sure go for it, but trading from the top of the system for half a win or something just doesn't make sense. The guys you are pushing out of the lineup are like Clement, Okamoto, Santander, Barger. These are good major leaguers.

BA top 100:

#10 - Yesavage
#62 - Nimmala
#68 - Parker

"The guys you are pushing out of the lineup are like Clement, Okamoto, Santander, Barger. These are good major leaguers."

I agree with you about Donovan. Get him for a package led by Pinango or Schreck or Fernando Perez and I'm in but I don't think that gets it done.

BUT I'm not on Team Ernie. He's an excellent utility man used strategically. Starting him basically every day runs a risk of really exposing him. The others need a chance to play as often as possible, but adding a good 2B (not some half-assed IKF or whatever) would be a smart play, IMO

"Who gets Valdez?"

the teams that have been waiting him out seem to be benefiting. The O's are very well situated but hopefully they screw it up. The other most obvious landing spot is SF, IMO.

BA top 100:

#10 - Yesavage
#62 - Nimmala
#68 - Parker

Doug Fox reports that one of the BA guys said that King just missed. Apparently the expectation is that Sanchez is on track for the list at some point

I realize it is a pipe dream, but if the Jays are going to go the trade route and sell the farm, let it be for Tatis Jr. San Diego is in a less-than-advantageous financial/ownership position, there have been rumors for years of strained relations with the organization, and the team's window to compete for a World Series is nearly closed.

A long shot, but it's fun to dream.

The fangraphs reviewer says that the Jays are aggressively conditioning their prospects so that they are physically older than their age and so their performances must be taken in that light, that is, by considering them older than they are.
Not sure about that.

Projected 2026 team WAR leaders after the Bellinger signing and the Peralta trade:

1. Dodgers
2. Yankees
3. Mets
4. Blue Jays
5. Braves
6. Mariners
7. Red Sox

The next Jays acquisition has to be good enough to justify pushing someone out of the lineup, so I agree it has to be a real difference maker. Ketel Marte would be perfect but the Jays don’t have the prospects to get it done and he likely won’t be moved now anyway. Beyond that I’m not sure what other realistic difference making option is out there.

The exception to that would be buying low on an upside play. Like if the Jays could trade for Nootbaar, for example. He can replace Lukes on the roster and has upside to be much better than he’s shown based on his batted ball metrics.

What would it take to get Tatis Jr. if you took on Bogaerts? Upgrade 2nd base and Right. Could then include Barger in the package.

"The fangraphs reviewer says that the Jays are aggressively conditioning their prospects so that they are physically older than their age and so their performances must be taken in that light, that is, by considering them older than they are."


that would be a really dumb thing to say, imo.

I think if you take Bogaerts you get Tatis clean.

I've looked into that in the past - Bogaerts $25.4 mil per year until 2033 and is entering his age 33 season. Tatis Jr $24.3 mil per year until 2034 and is entering his age 27 season. So $49.7 mil a year for a long time for 2 guys covering RF and 2B. Bogaerts is still a 3 WAR player, Tatis a 3-6 WAR guy (difference maker - worth $60 mil in today's market). The challenge is SD still feels they can contend and be in the playoffs, but those 2 plus Machado ($31.8 per until 2033) could be anchors on the payroll in a couple of years. Still, SD has been in the playoffs 4 of the past 6 years which is good but the deepest they've gotten is 1 win in the NLCS. However, attendance has grown to over 3 million a year for 3 years in a row now, the only other time in team history they did that was in 2004 when they moved into their current park. Every year from I suspect SD will still try to load up more for 2026 and 2027, hoping to dethrone the Dodgers. Their fan base deserves a team that tries to win and they are getting it right now.

Bottom line? Yeah, it is fun to dream of Tatis Jr and Bogaerts but it ain't happening. If I was Atkins I'd call them up just to check and make sure they aren't willing to cut bait yet, and make sure they know the Jays are open to it if they are.

I'd watch for teams that are at risk of collapse this year who have guys that'd be useful. SD is a possibility, Atlanta is at risk, Milwaukee after a magical season might be dumping already (the window for winning in that city is very short), Houston, Texas, etc. Lots of teams could suddenly be in a 'crap, time to rebuild' status by June. Heck, even the Jays could if everything falls apart ala 2024. So right now improvements are very unlikely until the end of spring when teams dreaming of a miracle run in '26 start to face reality. Still, I agree it is fun to dream and try to come up with those crazy trades.

The FG reviewer claiming that aggressively conditioning your prospects is a bad idea has bizarre thoughts imo. If the Jays push kids to their limits early on then maybe their peak can be higher than otherwise - when you are young you can push your body further than when you are old (ask any of us geezers here). Aggressive conditioning might just get these kids up faster than otherwise and thus make them more useful in trades/more useful in the majors quicker. Right now speed is becoming a big deal - with fewer minor league teams and roster limits you can't hold onto prospects as long as in the past. So pushing them to their limits quickly might lead to figuring out who is worth investing in and who isn't earlier.

Fangraphs prospect stuff is weird. There are only two guys doing all the teams I think. No way they can get same depth as say, BA. I mean Bloss as #3 prospect for Jays is insane. He's a backend rotation type coming off major injury. Some write-ups are good and fun but it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I'd be highly skeptical of both: a) the idea that the jays are uniquely good or aggressive at increasing their prospects' phsyical strength earlier than other systems (i.e. why wouldn't other teams do this?), and b) that even if this were somehow true, that this would somehow accelerate their performance ahead of similar aged prospects in other systems (i.e. if so, again, why wouldn't other teams do this?).


It sounds like just a way to justify ranking an entire system lower than their performance would suggest.

Note that this qualifier for jays prospects no longer applies as soon as that player is traded to another system, i.e. Khal Stephen.

Regarding Donovan, he's not a difference maker, but if you're looking to upgrade the roster, then a 2B against RHP is probably where the biggest upgrade potential realistically exists. Clement had an 82 wRC+ against RHP in 2024-25 (914 plate appearances). Donovan is at 130 for his career (1503 PA). You can certainly make the argument that from a pure impact standpoint, the Jays would greatly benefit from Donovan at 2B and Clement platooning/splitting time with Gimenez at SS and playing all over the diamond. That type of upgrade probably doesn't exist in the OF when the options are Barger (against RHP) and Santander (split neutral). Ultimately it comes down to what it would cost. I certainly would not be giving up top prospects for Donovan.

that's not because i think they'd be uniquely biased against the jays, but more that as a list made by guys with fewer resources than other sources, they'd be less willing to go against industry hype/consensus, which almost always favors the systems of more hyped organizations.

this would also explain why a guy like Bloss gets such a strangely high ranking - Bloss is still riding pre-established hype from a more high profile system, with a rep that was always higher than his performance would have indicated.

vs RHP

2024-25

Schneider 415pa, 108wrc+
Clement 708pa, 87wrc+
Gimenez 744pa, 86wrc+
Jimenez 160pa, 74wrc+

2023-25

Schneider 502pa, 112wrc+
Clement 728pa, 90wrc+
Gimenez 1163pa, 89wrc+
Jimenez 160pa, 74wrc+

Hopefully their seeming lack of interest in adding an IF means that they're actually committing to Schneider playing plenty of 2B.

But these stats are a major reason why i always thought Bo was more of a fit for this roster than an OF.

Donovan is a better hitter against RHP (130 wRC+) than Bichette is against RHP (119 wRC+).

I have a question about Ned Flanders:

What do people think with better eyes than min of his defense at 2nd base? I got the feeling that Schneider was not a fan of it -- but he looked fine/good to me. Is he legit enough to pencil in for most of the at bats there if needed?

The Jays were willing to risk losing playoff games by having one of the worst players in baseball play 2B in the post season rather than put Schneider there. Maybe they will be more willing to play him at 2B this season, especially if Lukes and Straw both make the roster (then Schneider becomes the only infielder on the bench).

IKF's still available!

Joe Doyle@JoeDoyleMiLB
Is this the END of high school eligibility in the MLB Draft?

Chatter inside of the industry is we could be in the final year or two of high school talent being draft-eligible.

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https://overslotbaseball.com/articles/mlb-draft-high-school-eligibility/

Rosenthal says Jays are still exploring adding starting pitching which is insane to me unless its Valdez because the floor is excellent (Lauer #7 starter!) now but Valdez would give them a top-3 rotation in baseball I think and would allow team to do a Dodgers thing of sitting guys and resting them to be healthy for playoffs. Right now, Valdez seems like such a perfect fit for Orioles. Depth Charts projected WAR by team has 4 AL East teams in the top-10. It's just such an unfair division.

It is near impossible to have too much starting pitching and you can both raise the floor and push some of the extended 6/7/8 starters to the bullpen improving the bullpen too.

But yes, it isn't an obvious need. But the Jays are in the good position of not really having too much of an obvious need given they are pretty good everywhere.

Yeah so SP might make a lot of sense long term actually. You sign Valdez, become the top tam in the AL East admittedly with some holes in your line up against RHP. You use your SP depth from prospects to acquire the #2 bat you want. You have the capital to acquire a CJ Abrams or Tatis hitter if you trade from your prospect pool which you won't need in your rotation if Valdez is acquired.

2027 Rotation
Cease
Ponce
Yesavage
Berrios (assume he won't opt out)
* room for Valdez here

Prospects
Bloss
King
Tiedeman
Stanifer


You can easily see a Valdez signing and then a trade of any of the prospect SP along with Nammala for someone like Abrams. Alternatively they could trade one of their SP prospects (a less ranked one like Bloss) as centerpiece for Donovan which greenfrog is absolutely right to say would better the team against RHP.

Boy, looking at divisions I just hope we see radical realignment soon. A version where the Jays get to be in a division with the Tigers, Guardians, and whoever else (the 2 physically closest teams). Looking at maps if you put 4 teams in a division you'd get (with 2 expansion teams, one in Charlotte/Nashville area and one in the north west - Portland or SLC) you'd have Jays-Tigers-Guardians-Pirates, NYY-NYM-Red Sox-Phillies (nuclear division), O's-Nationals-newbie-Atlanta, Miami-Rays-Houston-Texas, Reds-Cubs-White Sox-Brewers, Cards-Royals-Twins-Rockies, Arizona-SD-LAD-LAA, SFG-A's-Seattle-newbie 2. Of course, with that alignment you'd get the Cards/Cubs complaining as they are historic rivals as are the Dodgers/Giants. But geographically that would make a TON of sense to do. 8 divisions, put them into 2 groups of 4 for a West-East NL-AL setup for wildcards (Jays sharing with the nuclear division, SouthEast, and Central). It'd be interesting. I suspect they'd shuffle teams so the Cards/Cubs would stay together, and the Giants/Dodgers. But boy would a division with the Mets/Yankees/Phillies/Red Sox be fun to watch from afar.

Some versions I've seen have put the Jays into a 4 team division with the NYY/Red Sox/someone else which would be tough (ones that try to keep current NL and AL teams separate).

As to making the draft like the NBA/NFL where colleges becomes low level minor leagues, not a fan. That'd make it harder for players to reach 'wow' figures (don't reach majors for a couple more years if you are a superstar calibre guy like Harper who was up at 19 for example), forcing colleges to develop kids and blow out pitchers arms before they get a payday of any kind. I see the appeal for MLB clubs (less risk when drafting a 21/22 year old vs an 18/19 year old). Wonder if they'll push for similar on the IFA front (up the age to 18 from the current 16) and we know MLB will push for an international draft (a no-go for many players).

If they'll trade Gore (which they did) they'll trade Abrams if the price is right.


As for acquiring another SP, I'm not a fan.
I know about the dangers of presuming on an injury recovery but if Tiedemann can get his groove back, I don't want him blocked.If they happen to know for certain they can land Berrios somewhere else then sure, go get Valdez or whatever,
but I'd like to get 20+ million of value out of Rickey for league minimum than pay that much for multiple veterans entering the back half of their career.

I guess if they add more pitching in the FA market, the front office would have more flexibility to trade some of their pitching prospects for additional MLB talent.

For what it's worth (maybe not much), Abrams was way better in the first half last year (132 wRC+, 6.6 BB%, 16.2 K%) than he was in the second half (75 wRC+, 4.8 BB%, 24.4 K%).

If Abrams hadn't had 3 years of 3+ bWAR I'd worry more about that 2nd half slide. But given that track record I wouldn't worry too much. He isn't 'the' solution, but would be a plus on the team and is young enough that with proper coaching might shift from a 3 to a 4 or 5 WAR guy. Plus you could then platoon Gimenez/Clement at 2B instead and have a killer team potentially. He isn't Bo - better defense, less offence, a lot more speed. What would he cost? That is the tough one. Bloss is the only top 10 I'd be willing to give up easily. RJ Schreck would also be an easy one to trade (love the name, want to see if he has anything, but realistically at his age he has to be an easy one to trade). The multiple OF we have hanging around too (Lukes-Schneider-Loperfido-etc.) in AAA/majors need to be easy to give up as well if needed. I suspect Washington will want pitching help though so that is what they'll be asking for. If they'd be interested, guys like Lazaro Estrada, Adam Macko, the rule 5 guys should be the easiest to include.

Most likely targets for Jays trades if I had to guess:

Donovan, Hoerner, Abrams for INF

Would the Cubs even be open to trading Hoerner? They’re in a prime contending year.

Have a look at Abrams' statcast page. Fantastic baserunner, literally bad at everything else. Like middle of the Pacific amount of blue. Literally doesn't do anything well. I think a team might be able to get him to hit the ball on the ground a bit more and get some more hits because of his speed, but Where's the upside there? Again, fine with him a player but not someone I'm willing to give up top prospects for.

His name has been out there for awhile and they just signed Bregman but you're right there's nobody else to play 2B there.

I'd be curious to know if the Jays have kicked the tires on Luis Arraez as a bench bat to couple with Clement at 2B. It looks like he has always hit RHP well. The very odd observable is that his BB% plummeted from between 51st and 65th percentile while he was with Minnesota to 15th percentile down to 3rd percentile after his trade to Miami and he dropped from the 78th percentile in chase rate to 28th percentile the year he was traded to Miami, then down to the 11th percentile last year with San Diego.

Yes, he is reportedly a terrible fielder and a very slow runner but if Popkins and company can return his BB% and chase rate to his Minnesota years, it would be a nice buy-low free agent to deal with a very particular problem (batting against RHP). Sure he has no power but I'd be pretty happy watching a 320/380/420 bat playing 2B once in a while.

Perhaps the Jays can pay Ron Washington to do some magic and turn Arraez into an acceptable fielder at 2B. After all, he did play 2B until his trade to San Diego. Worst case scenario, if Gimenez or Clement gets injured, there's a major league regular to plug into 2B.

Glevin - good point about the Statcast page for Abrams - nothing wow outside of speed. Bat speed is solid, as are sweet spot, k%, and wiff%. xBA and xSlg are low but in the mid-range. Not a super-star but solid material to work with imo. If he'd move to 2B instead of SS (range very poor, arm OK but just mid) then he'd be very good potentially - basically a bargain basement Bo, but with speed.

It is damn hard to find upgrades for the current club. This is a good thing really.

Luis Arraez is another interesting one - mix/match at 2B would be interesting if he can handle it. Big if. At his best, he is a very useful bat to put in the 2 hole. I suspect with the high end defense available on this roster he could be a good mix-match part of the puzzle, if he is willing to be a part-time platoon level player. He might need to wait for a job until March to get it through his head he isn't an everyday guy anymore unless his power or defense improves drastically.

Texas sent their @2, 6, 12, 16, 18 in the Gore deal. (per Pipeline)
Not sure how the strength of system is rated. But none of them are in the Pipeline Top 100.

Vidal Brujan also traded meaning that in one day Gore and Vidal were traded.

Maybe someday we’ll see a Bush v. Gore matchup.

Ky Bush v. MacKenzie Gore, that is.

Gore would dominate the game score but I have a feeling Bush and the ChiSox would find a way to snatch the W.

The Nationals are now officially an other failed rebuild.
They're trading the prospects they got for Soto and going full tank.

Detroit can safely hold on to Skubal.
If they make the playoffs, they'll need him.
If they're out of it, he's going to be in demand from playoff teams.

Reports are out that Tucker wanted to sign with the Blue Jays but just couldn't say no to 60 million/year. Source is Whit Merrifield who claims to have heard this from the agent. Toronto would not offer more than 35 million/year.