Bieber taking the option makes a lot more sense now. Lauer and Berrios both perfectly good #5 options. Definitely more worried about lineup than rotation.

According to Mitch Bannon over at the Athletic, Bieber's forearm fatigue was detected by an MRI. Sounds ominous. Big Bieber fan here hoping it is not another Tommy John surgery. 😬 That Cody Ponce signing looks better and better.

From Arden Zwelling: “Blue Jays envision Kazuma Okamoto playing primarily third base, per manager John Schneider. Ernie Clement will play mostly 2B, while Addison Barger & Davis Schneider will be OF's.”

If the Jays view Schneider as an OF (which seems very likely given how they’ve used him), then either Jimenez has to make the team or they need to acquire a backup infielder. A Lukes/Schneider platoon doesn’t look all that great but hopefully the Jays can use them in favorable matchups to make the most out of it. They really need a breakout from someone in AAA, ala Barger in 2025. Maybe it’s Schreck. ZiPS seems to like him a lot.

As far as pitching, add as much SP depth as possible. If Bassitt is willing to come back then figure something out. The Jays can probably survive a short term Bieber injury but an additional injury makes the 4/5 Berrios and Lauer, and you begin to see the strength of the rotation soften a bit.

Adding Bassitt is a very good idea.

Scherzer, I can see squint and see getting back on a deal. Doesn't pitch until mid season, cheap deal, use him in right spots and try to get him ready for the stretch. Maybe. Bassit makes no sense for either side IMO. Bassit should be able to get like 2/$35 or something. Jays don't need to spend that kind of money on another backend starter and Bassit doesn't need to take a discount to get a rotation spot.

They still have the 2 rule 5 guys fighting for a spot in the pen.

Hopefully Bieber turns into a Dodgers style story.

I suppose they just collect the insurance on Santander.

Spring training becomes more meaningful with a possible opening for a position player down the line.

I would agree that a Scherzer reunion makes more sense, particularly if Bieber's injury is more than him missing the first couple of weeks of the season, unless Bassitt would agree to come back on a one-year deal and accept he may end up in the bullpen midseason.

Scherzer seems like a better fit all else being equal, as he can start later and they can patch it over in the interim with Lauer and he naturally may need rest during the season so there will be opportunities to IL him.

We’ve fallen a lot from the euphoria of “the Blue Jays are going to sign Tucker and maybe even another good player!”

to listing the reasons why the Blue Jays should stoically stand pat even after injuries are starting to mount.

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with that approach, given what’s left on the market. But we’re not exactly dreaming of a new era of Blue Jays dominance at this point.

Agreed 100% on Santander needing to get himself fully healthy - better he loses all of 2026 than comes back and 'hits' like he did last season. Same for Bieber - I'd rather he is 100% for September/October/November than April/May/June. We have the depth, it is smart to use it.

Eh i think both Santander and Bieber were question marks for most of us already so them missing significant parts of the season isn't a huge surprise demanding a big response.

And personally i didn't want Santander handed a starting spot anyways, while Bieber was always the most suspect of our top 4 starters heading into the year.

And while Bieber going down longterm definitely dings the team's upside we were wondering how the surplus of SP arms would shake out and even without Bieber we have 6 options in Cease Gausman Yesavage Ponce Lauer Berrios so there's no emergency there either.

The way that both player and team behaved in the offseason leads me to believe that this was always the expectation for Bieber.

Rumours are Bassitt is deciding between the Orioles, Padres, Cubs and NYY.

Bieber news sucks.

Santander was terrible in 2025 and 2026 Santander (for me) was supposed to replace some of the power production and RBIs from Bo.

Now there is a glaring hole in the line up, and I feel like Vlad will get pitched around like crazy this year.

There is no emergency, but Gausman is 35 and left it all on the field after a high innings total (regular season + postseason) last year, and Berrios ended the year injured. So I’ve tempered my expectations for those two in terms of health and performance in 2026.

Also, six starting pitchers usually isn’t enough to get through a season, as we saw last year.

First move in what, 2 months? Sure feels like it..

Jays have signed Juan Yepez to a minor-league deal. Presumably a spring training invite to see if he can provide some of Santander's offence - most likely as DH, I would imagine, since he's a 1B and defensively limited.

Anyone know why they are "delaying" the release of Lauer's arb decision?

I would not be surprised if Lauer signs a multi year deal. Just speculation. I have no info.

Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
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Eric Lauer has lost his arbitration hearing against the Blue Jays, per source. Lauer will earn $4.4 million in 2026; he had filed at $5.75 million.

In the 'that sucks' department the O's signed Chris Bassitt for 2026. I really hoped he'd go to the NL. $18.5 mil, $3 mil is a signing bonus, $500k if he gets 27 or more starts.

Bassit should be able to get like 2/$35 or something. Jays don't need to spend that kind of money

Bassitt got 1/$18.5m

I didn’t realize Bassitt’s L/R splits were so pronounced. Per MLBTR: “Since the start of 2023, lefties have gotten to him at a .284/.360/.483 clip in more than 1200 plate appearances. He has held same-handed opponents to a punchless .224/.286/.323 line in a similar number of at-bats over that stretch.”

That could be a problem for the Blue Jays when facing Bassitt, as their lineup tilts right (this is one reason I wanted them to add Tucker and Donovan).

Bassist got more per year but a year less than I thought but still didn’t make sense for the Jays.

For fun I checked the non-roster invitees. Always fun to look at these guys. A few will be up and help the team at some point, one might even jump up and be a significant part of the '26 Jays.

Just 2 OF - RJ Schreck & Eloy Jiménez - betting on Schreck getting a shot at some point.
9 IF - likely ones to get a shot are Kasevich at SS, McAdoo at 3B, with low numbers (often a sign the team likes the kid) given to Arjun Nimmala, Josh Rivera, and McAdoo.
5 catchers - you need a ton of these in spring. Sub 50's to Aaron Parker & Geovanny Planchart with C.J. Stubbs the oldest non-pitcher to be given an NRI entering his age 29 season (same for Eloy Jimenez).

Pitchers - 14 of these - mixed with the 23 on the 40 man already it is a bit nuts. But last year 38 pitchers were used (including batters used in blowouts on the mound so 34 real pitchers). So it is possible all 37 pitchers will be needed at some point this year. Wow. Note: 23 had 9+ IP last year.

Mitch Bannon
@MitchBannon
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José Berríos reflected on leaving the #BlueJays ahead of the WS last year. He said he’s apologized to his teammates and wants to put it in the past.

“Just made maybe one, one bad decision to go back home, to keep working on my rehab and stay close to my family.l”
11:02 AM · Feb 12, 2026

I may be in the minority here, but I don't care at all that Berrios left the team when he was told he wasn't going to pitch in the playoffs. I don't think he should need to apologize publicly or announce that he did. I also don't know the full context. I do know that if someone isn't able to work and his employer says your service is not needed, and will not be needed, that I would *hope* they would prefer to spend time with their family rather than their co-workers. I don't know where Jose's family lives during the season - it sounds like it is not in Toronto. I'm going to assume his wife and kids don't speak English. This story has bugged me since day 1. Even though I always thought the Berrios extension was an overpay, I also recognize that he's taken the ball every 5 days even when hurt and done better than league average, and often much better.

Last year Berrios finished the year, injury and all, having pitched better than Dylan Cease by ERA. He's done that two of the last 3 years, and in the third it was close. I understand that Berrios' peripherals are in decline, but the level of hate he gets from Jays fans, at least the online contingent, baffles me.

Interestingly, Yamamoto has reverse L/R splits.

His splits suggest that the Blue Jays’ decision to bat Lukes second and Varsho fifth against him in games 2 and 6 may have been a mistake. Lukes and Varsho were a combined 1 for 16 in those games. The other Blue Jays LH batters, Barger and Gimenez, were a combined 2 for 14 against him. LH batters were also 0 for 2 (with a walk) against him in game 7.

In summary, the Blue Jays LH batters were a combined 3 for 32 against Yamamoto in the 2025 World Series.

To be fair, RH batters weren’t a whole lot better against him in the series.

>I may be in the minority here, but I don't care at all that Berrios left the team when he was told he wasn't going to pitch in the playoffs.

While I do get the "stay around to cheer on your teammates" narrative, I mostly agree with you. Players who are hurt, for the most part, aren't hanging out with the team, day-in, day-out, AFAIK.

I think he might have been hurt (emotionally) by the team's decision, and overreacted a bit - maybe his reaction wasn't the best possible move - but I definitely think it has been blown out of proportion. If it got him 2 more weeks with his family, which he's presumably leaving again now and won't see for months (not sure), then I don't begrudge him the extra time. He hasn't tried to show up the team, nor has he badmouthed them, said he's leaving, etc.

This apology will hopefully assuage some of the online anger, and he can just come back as always.

If Berrios were a newer player, I'd maybe agree but he's a veteran and supposed team leader and leaving the team during the playoffs was petty and immature.

Mike, agree about vs LHP but I think Okamoto has a chance to be very good against them (he was in Japan). It's also not like a lot of guys are bad against LHP (Gimenez really)

The season wasn't done for the team it was done for Berrios so he decided to leave when his playing time was finished not when the team was eliminated. Is it wrong? Probably not. Was it right to apologize? Yes, for me it was because Berrios has always been an iron man, "La Machina," with great character. That description doesn't match a SP that leaves the team like he did, in my opinion.

It's the equivalent (for me) of leaving a start after your pulled and then getting in your car and going home because you don't want to watch the rest of the game from the dug out when you can watch it from home. If I'm one of those team mates (read- all of the other starters) then I'd definitely feel it could have gone better.

Again, did he do anything wrong? Nope, not at all. Did his reputation and character *maybe take a hit? Yeah probably.

It's nothing that he can't necessarily ever come back from but it was a bad bad bad move imo.

For sure I think he can come back. One mistake doesn't define the man. It's all how he finishes. I expect "La Machina," to turn some heads this year.

One thing I learned from The Book 10-15 years ago was that the data showed that batters tendencies were twice as important as pitchers tendencies in the outcomes of a plate appearance. 

Does that make sense?

Statistics are statistics. If a pitcher has large splits he's getting right bats out at a high clip.
If right handed hitters are hitting .175 against a guy, there can't be that many right handed hitter hitting .300 against him.
Obviously, hitter with splits are affected more by pitchers handedness. 
Starting lefties have often reverse splits because they face mostly right handed bats.
Bullpen lefties usually have large splits since their job is mostly to get left bats outs.

Hitters split against those should be night and day.

Yankees and Red Sox are heavy on left bats.
The Rays use lots of platoons.
Baltimore tilts left as well but they have some big right bats.

I think platoons are good. Good bats on the bench are less good.
Who do you want to pinch hit for? Clement?

I just saw that MLB will be enforcing the positioning of the base coaches to stop sign stealing (by the Yankees).
That could help.

Both TSN and MLBTR are reporting the Blue Jays have traded Joey Loperfido to Houston for outfielder Jesus Sanchez.

Joey Loperfido is going back to the Astros for OF Jesus Sanchez. I don't know what to make of this move, but it seems like they don't think much of Loperfido, who still has 1 option left and 5 years of control. Sanchez doesn't have options left and will need to remain on the MLB roster.

Sanchez is a career .253/.324/.450 against RHP (111 wRC+) and .181/.231/.289 (41 wRC+) against LHP.  He's useful as a left-handed bat off the bench.

he also seems to rate well defensively in the corners, and is good enough from manager's eye tests to fill in at CF too (though the numbers there are poor).

And of course, he might beat out Lukes for a part-time role in LF, or also play right-field with Barger moving to third base from time to time.  Good acquisition for a team where the Blue Jays currently are.

I like it. Sanchez hasn’t lived up to his potential but there’s a lot to like about his profile from an upside standpoint, and worst case he’s a platoon LF with pop. It makes Lukes place on the roster more questionable though.

yeah i love this swap tbh.

He can't hit lefties at all, but always hits righties and is good defensively.

Loperfido i had no faith in whatsoever. Sanchez is only a year older than him and has 2059 career PAs compared to Joey's 366.

Very odd trade. Sanchez is mostly a RF but has played CF/LF a fair amount. He has 6 seasons in the majors (4+ years service time) thus 2 years of control vs Loperfido having 5 years left. Just a 98 OPS+ lifetime, peak of 116 in '21 in just 64 games. A left handed hitter just like Loperfido. BR has his defense at -0.2 runs lifetime, Fangraphs has him at -13.8. His DRS is good in LF and RF but poor in CF.

Wondering if the Jays have zero confidence in Loperfido and little in Lukes to have gotten this guy. He bats left just like both of those guys, and his best position is probably LF. Thus making him a competitor with Lukes for the left handed side of a platoon in LF. Vs RHP he has hit well - 253/324/450 lifetime vs a 520 OPS vs LHP so he is a good platoon option. 33-7 SB-CS so a good baserunner but not a 'wow'.

Loperfido's OPS were vs RHP 711, vs LHP 598 lifetime. Lukes 751-629. Sanchez 774-520.

The more I look the more I see why the Jays did this. He could be a good mix-match candidate while others like Loperfido and Lukes might be more solid as everyday guys but not as platoon or mix-match situations. And with this team we need more guys who fit roles where they can exceed expectations, not guys who are solid all around but unspectacular.

Lukes still has an option so I wonder if they start him in AAA. With 3 LHH OF’s starting against RHP, Lukes doesn’t provide much value off the bench at this point. Schneider is obviously going to play against LHP, but Lukes won’t, and Straw shouldn’t play much regardless. If it’s between Lukes and Jiménez for the last bench spot, then I think Jiménez makes more sense at this point.

Agreed 100% SK in NJ. Jimenez-Schneider-Straw on the bench vs RHP, Jmenez-Straw-Sanchez vs LHP on the bench. Plus Heineman of course.

Sucks for Lukes but there really isn't a slot for him now. Hopefully the Jays find a team that has an open OF slot for him and trades him for something (solid left handed relief prospect with years of control ideally imo). That'd leave quite a few decent options in case of injuries/ineffectiveness in the OF in AAA still - Clase, Pinango, Schreck, Eloy Jiménez all NRI's other than Clase (on 40 already).

FG has Sanchez projected as a 1.5 WAR guy (8 systems, range of 1.2 to 2.1, 101-113 wRC+) which seems reasonable depending on how much he plays and how well the Jays keep him away from LHP. His contract is $6.8 mil so with luxury tax that is more like $12+ mil for Rogers. Lukes is projected at 0.3-2.2 with a wRC+ of 89-109 (big range). I suspect the Jays like a more predictable guy. Lukes entering his age 31 season makes him a lot less likely to be an improvement candidate.

heh the Lukes hate never stops. Manager loves him, guys, for good reason.

I like it.

It sets up more competition in the outfield where Barger and Lukes are not established players. It's also an option to play Barger at 3B if needed.

The downside, if you wanna call it that, is that it pushes Leo Jimenez out of the org.

This is all fallout from the Tucker non signing and Santander injury. Jays are doubling down now on the "more guys platooning" line up which suited them well last year. I'm okay with that. If they could ideally find one INF to push Clement and Gimenez to a platoon split at 2B or short stop then this team would be really good.

Let me predict now that the front office will trade for either Brandon Lowe, Ketel Marte or Nico Hoerner this season when we get to the trade deadline. Will the team be good enough to hang around in the standings u top then, is the question.

I think they value defense first guys like Gimenez, Varsho, Clement. Sanchez has more PA at cleanup than anywhere else. There's no way Clement sits after getting a record setting 30 hits in the postseason.

RICKY!

https://x.com/thehazelmae/status/2022353204487557507?s=20

https://x.com/thehazelmae/status/2022354851997585631?s=20

So since the "bad news" of this thread title, fangraphs has removed most of Santander's projected playing time and some of Bieber's projected playing time and added in Sanchez and......the jays now project for a slightly higher WAR than they did before this "bad news".


good stuff.

I like the trade mostly because I don't think Loperfido is a major league regular. Schreck has also passed him on the depth chart. Sanchez to me is someone who always looks like he should be doing more. He hits the ball hard and his expected slugging is way higher than his actual number. Hopefully, something can click and he can take his game to another level.

Nobody hates Lukes. He's a likable guy who makes the most of his skills and critiquing a player does not equal hatred. He's just an extremely low ceiling guy and that's not what the Jays need starting at LF. A 103 WRC+ placed him 26th in the league among LFers last year and that's with facing almost exclusively RHP. He had a 104 WRC+ against RHP. He was significantly worse in second half and playoffs in a way that I think is more reflective of his likely value going forward. As a RFer, he has more value because he is a solid fielder but as a LFer that just doesn't matter as much. Sanchez might not be any better but he offers way more upside.

I wonder if they keep Ricky in Dunedin till it gets warm in Buffalo.

Seems like a good move to get an experienced 100-120 wRC+ (against RHP) bat into the lineup. And he can run and play defense adequately.

As dalimon suggests, it would be great to add another impact player now or at the summer deadline. Marte might be the best/most likely choice, if Toronto and Arizona can align on trade parameters.

The AL East is going to be intense this year. Among the big four teams, the division winner may be the team with the best track record of health over the course of the season. Health aside, I think the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees are all similarly good teams.

Let the hate flow through you, Glevin!

Lukes is the new Clement.

I like the move. I think he’s an upgrade on Loperfido and gives the team additional defensive and offensive flexibility. Thumbs up.

Lukes' Savant page combined with his age doesn't give me hope that he's a league average or better bat moving forward. There's way too much soft contact and his walk rate went from 12.0% in the first half to 5.4% in the 2nd half. If you want to put him as a 4th/5th OF then I think that's his ideal role, but on a Jays team that is going to have 3 LHB's starting in the OF, I'm not sure he fits that role on this team anymore. His place on the roster made a bit more sense with Santander who is split neutral and poor defensively. Sanchez has extreme splits so you need a RHB on the bench to platoon with him. My guess is they will use Gimenez in a platoon role as well, so whether Schneider plays 2B or LF against LHP is the question. Maybe the Jays give the roster spot to Jimenez and we get a rare Gimenez/Jimenez platoon with Sanchez/Schneider in LF. The Jays could also platoon Gimenez/Schneider and add a RHH OF to platoon with Sanchez, but either way, Lukes feels like the odd man out. Nothing to do with "hating" him. The only player deserving of that harsh word is probably IKF, but even then it's not his fault the Jays loved him so much.

I love Lukes - really would love it if he had a role here, but he doesn't right now.

Everyday players at C-1B-2B-3B-SS-CF-RF-DH (8 spots) set pretty much in stone. That leaves 5 slots open - one is Heineman, the backup catcher, another Straw the defensive specialist who covers for Varsho. So 3 slots left. Schneider covers LF/2B and can play 3B/RF/1B to various degrees, even played 6 innings at SS in the minors in 2019 (1 game) plus, like Straw, is a RH bat but unlike Straw can actually hit at an above average level. So down to 2 slots. 2 guys have no options so it is play or lose them - Jimenez (IF) and Sánchez (OF). So to keep Lukes (who has options) in the majors you have to push one of those 2 through waives (risking losing them for nothing). It'll be interesting to see what happens next - I suspect the Jays hold onto everyone until the end of spring and if no one comes to them with a decent offer for Lukes or someone else they just send Lukes to AAA. Sucks for him, but makes perfect sense.

I don’t love the Jesus for Loperfido trade, Houston had both in their system and would have the most inside knowledge of both. I think Loperfido has the highest chance of being a full time regular of the two of them and that is what the Jays are lacking right now in the OF. Pressure is also now on for a Varsho extension.

There's nothing wrong with a good platoon bat.
Houston has a ballpark that advantages right bats.
It's mostly a cost cutting move for them, to spend the money elsewhere.
Loperfido mixed soft contact and high strike out rate.

Love the videos of guys coming into camp. Loved seeing Vlad coming in with Sanchez, showing him around. He's become a great team leader. Okamoto seems like a character. When asked about what he's like "Yeah, I'm very serious and very manly. "

Glevin,

Can you share a link?

Sanchez being Dominican, I'm sure he'll mesh fine with Vladdy.

Players arriving are all over Jays twitter and the Okamoto quote is from all the Jays beat writers.

It could be that the Astos think more highly of Loperfido. However, the Astros beat writers believe it was a salary cutting move. The Astros apparently are also trying to move off the Christian Walker contract.

Yeah, it's totally a salary dump to enable another move.
Houston has too many infielders.

It’s a logical move because Lukes can be stashed in AAA, giving the Blue Jays some additional solid corner OF depth if they need it. Also, Sanchez’s platoon bat, defense and baserunning might be a tick above Lukes’s comparable skills. And Popkins might be able to help Sanchez find another gear (Sanchez has a 774 OPS / 111 wRC+ in his career against RHP, which is good but not great).

So we have hope for 2026. I agree with the general consensus that Lukes or Sanchez with Schneider is a better situation than Santander at the moment - if Santander gets his bat going again in August/September when he returns then great, but otherwise his contract is a write off. Career figures...

• Lukes vs LHP: 629 OPS, vs RHP: 751
• Sanchez vs LHP: 520 OPS, vs RHP: 774 OPS
• Schneider vs LHP: 725 OPS, vs RHP: 743 OPS
• Straw vs LHP: 608 OPS, vs RHP: 643 OPS

hrm, our 2 RH OF bats seem to have issues vs LHP overall, but Schneider definitely is the best option of these 4 vs LHP. Finding a guy who can slug LHP might be a good idea, but who is out there who can do that? Hard to find a guy who is available who has done that who isn't a total black hole on defense.

Old friend Randal Grichuk was one of the better names I could find. If the Jays hadn't been laser-focused on Tucker, chasing Refsnyder in December would have fit the bill.

Hopefully, the org has a more fine-grained understanding of which type of LHP or RHP the group struggles with. Sanchez's spray chart and bat speed he should get a shot at an everyday role. Schneier is probably best deployed against pitchers with sub-par command and/or weak fastballs. Straw is who is at the plate, but with a flyball pitcher on the mound, there's nothing wrong with playing Varsho and Straw.

The most disappointing part is that there's no healthy Santander to dream on to potentially offset Springer's regression.

Last year stats

vRHP

DH Springer 437pa, .412obp, 178wrc+
2B Schneider 99pa, .384obp, 155wrc+
1B Guerrero 521pa, .367obp, 129wrc+
3B Okamoto ?
CF Varsho 215pa, .274obp, 129wrc+
C Alejandro 362p, .348obp, 116wrc+
RF Barger 413pa, .308obp, 115wrc+
LF Sanchez 422pa, .318obp, 104wrc+
SS Gimenez 283pa, .301obp, 80wrc+

UT Lukes 385pa, .320obp, 104wrc+
OF Straw 153pa, .303obp, 89wrc+
IF Clement 401pa, .295obp, 75wrc+
C Heineman 124pa, .325obp, 95wrc+


vLHP

DH Springer 149pa, .361obp, 132wrc+
SS Clement 187pa, .351obp, 146wrc+
1B Guerrero 159pa, .428obp, 163wrc+
3B Okamoto ?
C Alejandro 144pa, .347obp, 113wrc+
2B Schneider 128pa, .344obp, 106wrc+
LF Lukes 53pa, .340obp, 99wrc+
CF Varsho 56pa, .321obp, 98wrc+
RF Straw 146pa, .322obp, 93wrc+

UT Barger 89pa, .270obp, 69wrc+
OF Sanchez 75pa, .227obp, 33wrc+
IF Gimenez 86pa, .233obp, 39wrc+
C Heineman 50pa, .449obp, 183wrc+





2yr stats

vRHP

DH Springer 906pa, .356obp, 138wrc+
RF Sanchez 844pa, .327obp, 112wrc+
1B Guerrero 1079pa, .379obp, 147wrc+
3B Okamoto ?
LF Lukes 462pa, .331obp, 111wrc+
2B Schneider 415pa, .320obp, 108wrc+
C Alejandro 648pa, .340obp, 106wrc+
CF Varsho 624pa, .276obp, 103wrc+
SS Clement 708pa, .297obp, 87wrc+

UT Barger 601pa, .294obp, 104wrc+
OF Straw 156pa, .304obp, 89wrc+
IF Gimenez 744pa, .305obp, 86wrc+
C Heineman 132pa, .329obp, 90wrc+


vLHP

DH Springer 294pa, .332obp, 103wrc+
SS Clement 332pa, .308obp, 114wrc+
1B Guerrero 298pa, .423obp, 165wrc+
3B Okamoto ?
CF Varsho 160pa, .344obp, 121wrc+
C Alejandro 244pa, .324obp, 106wrc+
RF Straw 147pa, .319obp, 92wrc+
LF Lukes 67pa, .328obp, 91wrc+
2B Schneider 266pa, .289obp, 87wrc+

UT Barger 126pa, .246obp, 53wrc+
OF Sanchez 190pa, .228obp, 35wrc+
IF Gimenez 258pa, .260obp, 56wrc+
C Heineman 58pa, .439obp, 169wrc+



3yr Stats

vRHP

DH Springer 1445pa, .345obp, 125wrc+
RF Sanchez 1196pa, .330obp, 113wrc+
1B Guerrero 1637pa, .363obp, 137wrc+
3B Okamoto ?
2B Schneider 502pa, .329obp, 112wrc+
LF Lukes 488pa, .330obp, 109wrc+
C Alejandro 942pa, .334obp, 101wrc+
CF Varsho 1088pa, .273obp, 93wrc+
SS Clement 728pa, .300obp, 90wrc+

UT Barger 601pa, .294obp, 104wrc+
OF Straw 528pa, .304obp, 75wrc+
IF Gimenez 1163pa, .306obp, 89wrc+
C Heineman 172pa, .321obp, 84wrc+


vLHP

DH Springer 438pa, .332obp, 102wrc+
SS Clement 364pa, .314obp, 114wrc+
1B Guerrero 422pa, .417obp, 152wrc+
3B Okamoto ?
CF Varsho 277pa, .344obp, 113wrc+
C Alejandro 372pa, .336obp, 106wrc+
2B Schneider 320pa, .319obp, 105wrc+
LF Lukes 72pa, .319obp, 83wrc+
RF Straw 293pa, .306obp, 78wrc+

UT Barger 126pa, .246obp, 53wrc+
OF Sanchez 240pa, .231obp, 38wrc+
IF Gimenez 455pa, .289obp, 75wrc+
C Heineman 65pa, .469obp, 186wrc+

Best hope for more offense is if a team with good offense flops and needs to cut payroll. Someone like San Diego or Milwaukee (already cutting). Hard to know what to expect, but for now I suspect little will change outside of edge guys and AAA signings. A better pure lefty masher would be nice but those seem to have vanished (used to be commonplace). Maybe there is a guy trapped in the minors who mashes LHP but is so poor vs RHP that he can't get a shot.

The take-away is... they'll be worse against LHP?

The rolling stats down play adjustments and the uptick in how LHP has improved.

The Jays will be good. The trouble is the rest of AL least is good. Any team could win the division. Usually that'd be a sign of mediocre teams but if any of them click it'll be a struggle.

I wasn't disappointed that the team didn't sign Tucker and No until Santander went down. There's a lot on Okamoto's shoulders for a rookie.

Okamoto is the same age as Varsho.
Guys just need to field well and have good ABs.
Vladdy and Springer are good at keeping guys loose.

Riley Tiirotta mashes lefties quite well. .930 OPS last year at AAA.

they were pretty even vR/L last year (113/111wrc+).

The bats vLHP they've lost:

Sanchez 4pa, 253wrc+
Robertson 2pa, 189wrc+
Bichette 139pa, 143wrc+
Loperfido 23pa, 123wrc+
Kennedy 6pa, 108wrc+
IKF 21pa, 91wrc+
France 37pa, 91wrc+
Roden 13pa, 42wrc+
(Santander 55pa, 32wrc+)
Wagner 16pa, 15wrc+
Stefanic 5pa, -20wrc+


The bats vRHP they've lost:

Loperfido 81pa, 155wrc+
Bichette 489pa, 131wrc+
Wagner 116pa, 95wrc+
France 66pa, 92wrc+
(Santander 166pa, 70wrc+)
Roden 100pa, 70wrc+
Stefanic 20pa, 54wrc+
IKF 10pa, 32wrc+
Sanchez 17pa, 7wrc+
Robebrtson 10pa, -17wrc+

Funny, just read one of the click bait sites - had to see which superstar they claimed the Jays were after this time - now it is Bryce Harper after he ranted about his club's president saying negative stuff about him in public when Harper thought it (issues between them) was all going to be done in secret. Now entering his age 33 season, in 7 years in Philly he has 26.3 bWAR (27.7 in his 7 in Washington). For 5 straight years his most similar has been Barry Bonds (pre-PED version). He is owed $153.2 mil for the next 6 years (not bad, $23-27 mil per year) but has been limited to 1B/DH since 2023. Last played a lot in the OF in 2021. If Philly decides he is a 'bad attitude' I could see them trading him, but the Jays aren't a fit until 2027 (if Springer leaves) unless he can handle LF. His bat would be sweet (LH) and at his age he should still be productive at a star level for 2-3 years, then solid for the rest of his contract with luck. A trade now would be funny given his 7 years in each of Philly and Washington. But I just don't see it working, cool as it could be.

Harper is the Phillies 3rd hitter.
He bats left and he's limited to first base.
It's a dubious match and the Phillies would need a bat to replace him.

I still think Schneider is likely to make the team but he has one major issue: Right now he has trouble with velocity. XWOBA vs -95 stuff is .347. 95+, it's .262. He's still a very useful player but Jays have been very strategic in his use and tend not to expose him against high velocity too much.

This year we have the ABS challenge system.
I hope pitchers let Kirk make the calls and that Vladdy goes easy as he hasn't the best eye.

hey Glevin if you could give us the xwobas for high and low velo for all the hitters that would be super cool of you!

The stats on who asks for and who succeed in getting calls changed via ABS will be interesting. Agreed that Vlad and other hitters should be very careful and only do it for extreme cases. Kirk could do it anytime as he seems damn good at it behind the plate. Pitchers shouldn't be doing it. I expect we'll find the vast majority of calls will be done by catchers, and the worst success rates will be by pitchers.

The analytics behind ABS challenges will be very interesting. Each team gets two per game, but successful challenges are retained. Success rates have averaged around 50%, but I would expect that there are some high variances among individual players at the MLB level. I wouldn't be surprised if elite catchers challenged with 75%-80% success or if Vlady challenged with 25-30% success. I also won't be surprised if most managers institute strict pre-game, or even pre-batter controls on who challenges and when. For example, I'm not sure it's ever worth challenging in a low-leverage situation... but if the umpire was having an off day, a catcher with a great eye might be able to challenge and change 6-8 balls into strikes over the course of a game.

hey Glevin if you could give us the xwobas for high and low velo for all the hitters that would be super cool of you! "

I know you're trying to pretend that this isn't a big issue because it's common but Schneider has the 10th biggest difference between XWOBA at - 95/95+ in the majors so it's not common. The Jays also clearly keep him away from velocity when they can, so they see it as an issue as well. 95 isn't that fast anymore so keeping a guy away from that heat means a lot of sitting. Not saying he can't adjust but unless he does, it will always hold him back and make him a part time player. This is one of the issues with prorating part-time player stats.

oh no - i'm actually interested in the stats. i can't find them.

Bref has a split for Power/average/finesse pitchers and Schneider has huge splits there.

On the subject of sheltering hitters, I noticed this tidbit in Fangraphs' writeup of the Loperfido/Sanchez trade: "[Sanchez] has a career 111 wRC+ against righties and a 41 wRC+ against lefties. Since 2020, that’s the worst mark of any player in baseball with at least 300 plate appearances against lefties."

His career power/finesse splits are even bigger than Schneider's.

Best i can do is find woba / wrc+ by pitch type using fangraphs' Pitch Type Splits but that doesn't really tell us about velo and might be misleading if he was sheltered away from the highest velo guys....

Career

FA 111wrc+
SL 122
SI 168
CH 91
FC 90
CU 35
FS -11
KC 189

yeah i was hoping to see specifically those velo splits that Glevin mentioned.

Maybe one way of seeing which jays were shielded most from velo is just to look at the average 4-seamer velo each faced on the season (min 50pa):

Statcast:

Varsho 94.8
Guerrero 94.7
Barger 94.7
Santander 94.7
Springer 94.6
Bichette 94.6
Loperfido 94.6
Lukes 94.5
Gimenez 94.5
Clase 94.4
Kirk 94.3
Clement 94.2
Wagner 94.1
Schneider 93.9
Straw 93.9
Roden 93.7
France 93.7
Heineman 93.2

PitchInfo

Varsho 94.9
Santander 94.9
Guerrero 94.5
Gimenez 94.5
Loperfido 94.5
Springer 94.3
Bichette 94.2
Wagner 94.1
Barger 93.9
Kirk 93.8
Lukes 93.8
Clement 93.5
Clase 93.5
Roden 93.4
Schneider 93.1
Straw 92.6
Heineman 92.1
France 90.6

Definitely on the lower end, though maybe not extremely so.

Of course this tells us how he was used not necessarily how he should have been used.

Interesting stuff. The player I'm most interested to watch with respect to hitting velocity is Okamoto. Japanese position players' hitting stats are all over the map from a translation to MLB perspective. Leaving aside the real possibility of randomness arising from small data sets, the most plausible explanation for this is the sheer difference in average velocity between the two hitting environments. Whether Okamoto can handle velocity will go some way to determining whether his hitting will translate to Toronto.

Ryan Day - interesting. Had to look that up. Career Power (P) Finesse (F) and Neutral (N) splits by player

• Schneider: P: 657 N: 747 F: 780
• Sanchez: P: 605 N: 748 F: 789
• Lukes: P: 640 N: 730 F: 789
• Straw: P: 592 N: 629 F: 659

Interesting - none are that good vs power, but Schneider is the best of the '4th OF' types we have here. Amazing that Sanchez and Lukes are identical vs finesse pitchers. Probably no shock to anyone that Straw can't hit any of them well.

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

#BlueJays announce they've claimed infielder Ben Cowles off waivers from the Cubs.

Ranked as Chicago's #14 prospect in 2025 (Baseball America), he's a versatile defender (2B,SS,3B) with minor-league options. Jays needed some INF depth.

Francis moved to 60 day IL to make room

Can you post Springer, Varsho and Santander for reference?

"If you subscribe to the view that he can't hit right-handers with the big fastball, but hits every other right-hander very well, you can safely give him many more than the 99 PAs he had against RHPs last year."

The problem is that almost all relievers throw hard and teams go to bullpen early. If Schenider hits 6-8th against RHP that is likely he's getting 2 PAs before needing to be pinch hit for.

You can search on Statcast. The Jay who faced RHP throwing 95+ the highest% was Santander with 23.3% of abs. Lukes not far behind. Schenider faced it in only 8.3% Clement surprisingly next at 10.9% (surprising because I don't remember Jays sitting him much or ever pinch hitting him).

Jays had 4 hitters who were very bad against RHP velocity: Schenider, Clement, Santander and Barger. Barger was actually the worst with a. 430 OPS. Clement and Schenider were both under. 600. Everyone else was at least OK. Lukes had a. 768 OPS for example. Against LHP throwing hard, there's some fun data but nobody had more than 25 PAs against that group so it's all very small sample size. If you combine all 95+ numbers, the best hitters are generally also the best vs velocity. Straw being an exception as he can hit the hard stuff (and nothing else?). Barger was awful against velocity with a. 452 OPS in over 100 PAs. Schneider and Clement also both very bad as well and Gimenez only a little better (but also kind of just as bad as he was against everyone). What's interesting is Jays only gave Schenider 2 more PAs against high velocity than Heinemen got.

The other issue Schenider has is that he wasn't very good on pitches 93-95 MPH either with a. 637 OPS. On pitches 92.MPH and slower, he had an. 832 OPS. Lots of interesting data. Some of it meaningful, some of it likely not but its clear Jays do not trust Schenider to face harder throwing pitchers which is a pretty big deal.

The reason that Clement faced such a low % of high velocity FBs is that the book on his plate approach is that he is hunting FBs early in the count. He got a heavy diet of off speed pitches, particularly as the season went along.

dalimon5 - good question...

• Springer: P: 793 N: 793 F: 889
• Varsho: P: 660 N: 698 F: 799
• Santander: P: 745 N: 752 F: 791
• Barger: P: 630 N: 716 F: 744
• Vlad: P: 813 N: 883 F: 872

Added Barger, who the other OF who I keep forgetting is one, and Vlad just for fun.

When will this bad day ever end ? after we get above .500 ?
Actually I feel Optimistic about the Jays. which is worrisome because a year ago this time i thought they were doomed.

Sanchez has huge splits and can't hit LHP.
The narrative is that lefties don't throw as hard as RHP.

Just remember, last year after games on May 27th and May 28th the Jays were 8 games out of 1st. The Yankees looked unstoppable and the Rays were ahead of the Jays at that point. On May 7th they were 16-20 after a walkoff loss to the Angels (ugh). So no worries at this stage that is for sure. Their record is 0-0.

I guess I'm the only person checking mlbtraderumors daily to see a big Blue Jays last minute deal for that missing offensive piece. These stats on our AAAA hitters leaves me dreaming. This offense could look like Swiss cheese if everyone slumps, and we've seen everyone slump before.

Good point Nigel. Mike, I don't think they are overstated simply because the Jays have their own metrics which are way more advanced and detailed than anything we have access to and obviously see an issue there. I like Schenider still and would happily give him some rope vs. RHP to see if he can adjust if other options aren't working.

only guy that suits the "AAAA" label in any way is Lukes.

Schneider has a career 109wrc+ in 822pa at ages 24-26, after posting a 142 in 567pa in AAA at ages 23-24, and a 131 in 190pa in AA at age 23. Nothing "AAAA" about that.

And even Lukes is a stretch for that label, given that "AAAA" usually refers to someone who performs really well in AAA but can't perform in MLB, and Lukes has a career 106wrc+ and 3war/650.

I think what dalimon is saying that the team needs another impact bat, since many of the hitters in the lineup, while not AAAA players, are likely to be in the 80-110 wRC+ range (Lukes, Sanchez, Schneider, Gimenez, Varsho, Clement, Straw…maybe Barger and Okamoto too).

I think a while back he mentioned Mason Miller as a trade target, so maybe he also thinks we need an impact closer on the pitching side.

Precisely greenfrog. I don't mean any offense by "AAAA" and probably should have included quotation marks. I'm simply referring to guys with high floors and low ceilings essentially. The FO has already shown that it's a good recipe to have these "AAAA" guys with very good to elite defense around your core players.

Having said that, this FO has the pieces to acquire strong players. An impact bat and arm would push this team into Dodgers territory. I am hoping that the prices are simply too high right now or teams are not ready to sell and the Blue Jays think they can acquire players for a lower price later in the year or even at a higher price when those players become available. Go bet your farm on a Tatis/Miller package once the Padres realize they're out of it.

If this FO was willing to go after Tucker and they have Springer coming off the books next year and the player formerly known as Tony Taters on the IL indefinitely... I can't see how they go from that benchmark aim to Lukes, Straw, Barger, Varsho for an OF only to double down with Sanchez brought in. There's a huge disconnect there. "I've got an eight thirty res at Dorsia's." Oh wait they're full so let me ... stop in at Lone Star Grill instead?

Further to my "AAAA" bitterness, there is no Bo this year. I think there is a very real chance this team allows less runs but loses a ton of games by a run. Kirk and Vlad in particular are very very streaky and Springer and Varsho not the most durable.

We shall see what happens and I got nothing against the "AAAA" players. Clement is one of my favourite players to watch but man each of these guys have some big time holes in their game.

"only guy that suits the "AAAA" label in any way is Lukes."

Agreed. For me, Lukes isn't even a AAAA guy because he is clearly a major leaguer even if maybe just a 4th OFer. Someone like Michael Stefanic is an AAAA player.

not gonna catch up to the Dodgers on paper unfortunately.

but we match up with anyone else still.

FG combined projections:

Replace "AAAA," with "low ceiling, high floor." Obviously these guys are not players stuck between AAA and MLB since they've all just had a very successful season in the show in 2025. Lukes was dynamite when used, Schneider was a very tough at bat and Barger broke out. Clement was one of the top players. This doesn't change my view though that these are not players you can count on from an offensive stand point. As we can see from some of the stats posted, they all have rather large holes. Clement is weak against RHP, Lukes and Schneider need to be protected in the line up and are pretty much borderline "elite situational hitters." You see, it doesn't matter what we call them, regardless they are not core players which this team needs 1 more of imho.

Barger is the one guy that doesn't really fit the mold of the others if I really think about it. He has a higher ceiling now after 2025, big power upside from the left side, but he also might just end up being Adam Lind in a best case scenario.

This entire point is boxed into an "offense only," framework. The defense from these guys is what makes them super valuable (Clement, Barger, Straw and I'd even say Lukes).

I just heard that Ernie Clement had a broken hand for the entire playoffs. Wow.

Davis Schneider's demonstrated ceiling is his 2023 season, and his floor is his 2024 season, which are pretty darn high and low. I don't believe repeating either is likely, but that's the whole problem with perceived ceilings and floors.

[Barger] has a higher ceiling now after 2025, big power upside from the left side, but he also might just end up being Adam Lind in a best case scenario.

"Adam Lind but able to play defence" would make Barger a very valuable player. Even without the defence, if Barger could come close to Lind's 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015 seasons, I imagine we'd all be very happy.

The issue is Lukes/Schneider/Straw/Sanchez are all useful guys, great for 4th OF/5th OF roles but not really guys you want as everyday players on a championship team. Varsho is elite defense with great power but no average - valuable but rarely seen as being so due to his extremes (can have bad offensive slumps, great offensive highs). Barger is a wild card still - decent season 105 OPS+, great post season 1.025 OPS. I suspect feeling like he has an everyday job in RF from day one will make it easier for him to focus and that post-season should jump his confidence - just noticed his 8-12 BB-SO ratio in the playoffs, an excellent sign.

No question I'd have loved it if they got Tucker but that ship has sailed. If SD goes coo-coo mid-season and they can get Tatis from them then woohoo, but any star OF will be hard to acquire. Next winters FA class is weak (Varsho probably the best OF available) which doesn't help.

The difference between Judge and Guerrero makes the Yankees offense look a lot better, in my opinion. I like Kirk a lot, but that's a generous projection, as is Okamoto's. I've made this point a couple times, but the Jays offense will only be good if playoffs Vladdy is a real thing. Bichette carried this offense for long stretches last season.

After missing out on Tucker, who else could the Jays have realistically acquired that was a guaranteed impact bat? Bichette was likely the only one and it seemed like both sides moved on a long time ago for whatever reason. They really had no choice other than hoping Santander bounced back, and once that plan evaporated due to injury, they at least pivoted to someone with breakout potential (Sanchez) rather than a high floor type. The Jays do feel one bat short, depending on how Okamoto looks (that could change things instantly) but I think they went about the off season the right way. They aggressively spent to fix their biggest weakness (SP) and did about the best they could on the position player side if Tucker and Bo were not options.

With Bruce Meyer named as Tony Clark’s replacement, I can confidently say there won’t be a salary cap in baseball any time soon, so the Jays are in good position to spend again next winter (hopefully for a full 2027 season).

Donovan would have been a good add. His projected wRC+ for 2026 (119) is almost as good as Bo's projection (122), and the Blue Jays would have been able to maximize his value by using him primarily against RHP, with Clement starting at 2B or 3B against LHP.

Notably, Donovan is a better hitter against RHP (130 wRC+) than Bo is against RHP (119 wRC+), mainly because Donovan gets on base against RHP at a much higher rate (.373 OBP versus .333 OBP for Bo).

He was a good acquisition for Seattle, but he would have been a stretch for Toronto to acquire because of their shallower farm system.

Here is part of the Ben Clemens (Fangraphs) review of the trade:

Donovan isn’t a household name like many of the best Cardinals of recent years, but that has far more to do with the team’s middling success of late than any lack of talent. His combination of versatility and offensive firepower calls to mind Ben Zobrist, and unlike almost every other flexible defender who gets compared to Zobrist, this one actually makes sense. Zobrist ran a 121 wRC+ during his seven-year peak. Donovan’s career mark is 119, the same as his 2025 total. He’s under team control for two more years at a reasonable rate, too: $5.8 million this year, with his last trip through arbitration set for 2027.

“A plus bat who can play defense everywhere” generally isn’t a good title to have applied to you. That’s because most of the hitters who receive that label either aren’t plus bats, don’t play good defense, or both. But as I mentioned, that’s not Donovan, and we might as well examine each of those two skills, as he’s the entire reason this trade happened, the best player going to any of the three clubs by a mile.

On offense, Donovan plays like a rough approximation of Steven Kwan. His standout skill is the kind of batting eye/contact combo you’d draw up in a lab. If you throw him something outside of the strike zone, he’s probably not going to swing at it. He chased just 25% of the bad pitches he saw in 2025, a 70th-percentile mark league wide and coincidentally the worst mark of his career. When he did swing, he made contact at a 95th-percentile clip, with a swinging strike rate less than half the big league average. That means that he takes a fair number of walks even though pitchers have no interest in giving him a free pass.

Like I said, that’s basically Steven Kwan. The difference is that Donovan swings the bat six ticks faster on average. He posts league average exit velocities thanks to a respectably fast bat and an absolute mountain of bat control, with his squared-up rate in the 96th percentile. Let’s put it this way: Donovan has a career 42.4% hard-hit rate. Kwan has a career rate of 20%, while Luis Arraez checks in at 26%. That combination means that Donovan’s line drives skip past outfielders and to the wall a lot more frequently than his less-powerful brethren. His career .130 ISO isn’t exactly gaudy – the league average hovers around .160 – but it’s spectacular in the context of the rest of his offensive skills.

I think in general you guys might be considering strengths as weaknesses.

Having guys as good as Sanchez/Schneider/Lukes/Clement/Gimenez battling for the bottom few slots in the order is a strength, not a weakness. It was a strength last year, and should be a strength this year.


Even the mighty Dodgers last year had these guys battling for those bottom regular spots, and they were worse, and weren't reasonably expected to be any better:

Teoscar 546pa, 102wrc+, 0.6war
Conforto 486pa, 83wrc+, -0.6war
Edman 377pa, 81wrc+, 1.2war
Rojas 317pa, 100wrc+, 1.7war
Kike 256pa, 70wrc+, -0.2war
Kim 170pa, 95wrc+, 0.8war

Clement 588pa, 98wrc+, 3.2war
Lukes 438pa, 103wrc+, 1.8war
Gimenez 369pa, 70wrc+, 1.0war
Straw 299pa, 91wrc+, 1.8war
Schneider 227pa, 127wrc+, 1.3war
Santander 221pa, 61wrc+, -0.9

and the yankees:

Volpe 596pa, 83wrc+, 1.0war
Dominguez 429pa, 103wrc+, 0.6war
Stanton 281pa, 158wrc+, 1.9war
McMahon 185pa, 84wrc+, 0.6war
Peraza 170pa, 27wrc+, -0.6war
Lemahieu 142pa, 95wrc+, 0.3war



As for Kirk's projection being "generous", the projection is identical to what he did last year, and only slightly above his career averages (which were below his expected performance coming into last year). While teams can come in significantly above or below their projections, the projections don't tend to be "generous" to some teams over others.

Also, while Okamoto likely won't replicate near what Bo did last year, Sanchez is a good bet to be much better than what Santander gave us last year.

We're also not gambling on guys with no track record like we did last year to start with guys like Wagner and Roden starting. The team obviously picked it up big time once they made the decision at the end of April to cut bait with those guys and give the likes of Barger/Lukes/Schneider/Clement more PA. So there's a better chance this year that we can avoid those early black holes, just because we're not counting on those types to start the year. The guys who fit in that category coming into this year are guys like Schreck and Jimenez who are unlikely to start the year as starters.


Last year's opening month roster:

Springer 102pa, 148wrc+, 0.7war
Guerrero 130pa, 116wrc+, 0.4war
Bichette 137pa, 93wrc+, 0.2war
Santander 128pa, 61wrc+, -0.5war
Alejandro 93pa, 68wrc+, 0.3war
Gimenez 125pa, 55wrc+, 0.2war
Roden 79pa, 54wrc+, 0.0war
Clement 77pa, 56wrc+, 0.0war
Wagner 68pa, 49wrc+, -0.4war

Straw 51pa, 120wrc+, 0.4war
Lukes 44pa, 90wrc+, 0.1war
Heineman 30pa, 216wrc+, 0.7war
Varsho 9pa, 196wrc+, 0.2war

Barger 28pa, 38wrc+, -0.1war
Schneider 21pa, 51wrc+, -0.1war
Clase 4pa, -100wrc+, -0.1war

Kirk had a 103 wRC+ over the last 3 seasons, and his projection is 117. That's a lot of weight, pun intended, being put on 2022.

He had a 116 last year and a 111 career.

The projections weight stats by recency btw. The 2022 stats carry little weight by themselves. An unweighted 3yr sample would be a downgrade from a weighted sample.

Generally agree with Ugly on this. Yes, LF could be better but with some combo of Sanchez, Schneider, and Lukes is probably 2.5-3 WAR which is fine.and having extra decent bodies mean Jays can withstand injuries better than most.

I'm very hopeful for Vlad - he seems like the type who feels he has unfinished business with not winning it all and now knows he can be the best hitter in baseball after his playoff performance. He appears motivated by how he looks now and his general attitude. Year 1 of his big lifetime deal and he wants to prove himself worthy of it. Can also hope the other 2 who had great playoffs (above normal regular season) were Clement & Barger, both given full time roles this year - if they can split the difference between playoff and regular performance I think the Jays would be very, very happy.

Well, that is probably all wishful thinking, but spring is the time for that isn't it?

There's hope this year that the world series run and great season in general has them entering this year in a much more confident state of mind, and hopefully avoiding a bad opening month or so like they had last year coming off a very bad season.

Bichette had a 112 OPS+ zips projection last year, and I thought that was ridiculously weighted to 2024 considering the previous 4.5 seasons.

Anyway, I sure hope Kirk can handle the rigors of carrying the tools of ignorance every day and have a better season than any of his last 3. That would be sweet!

It might not have been as painful as the Rojas home run off Hoffman (and subsequent events in game 7), but the women’s hockey game today was a similar late-game crushing loss in a Canada-US matchup.

Spring schedule is on Sportsnet. First game Saturday.

“ probably all wishful thinking”

June, my own wishful thinking stems from having another year’s contribution from Popkins. This kind of coaching advance is rarely (never?) mtaken into account by Fangraphs et al. I do believe that all of the following hitters have unfulfilled potential that they could realize under his tutelage this year: Varsho, Barger, Giménez, Clement, Straw, Sanchez, Okamoto, and Schneider. The first two of these have a new contract upside to pursue. At the same time, while Springer could easily regress, Popkins might limit that downside.

Thinking about this years team - might it be a good idea to sign Randal Grichuk? vs LHP he has a lifetime 819 OPS (268/318/500) vs 733 vs RHP. Mixed with Sanchez (774/520)) it might be a good combo. He did have a bad year last year (85 OPS+) but it could work. Then you have Schneider/Lukes fighting for one spot on the roster with any IF (new guy Ben Cowles, or Jimenez or whoever). At this point he is probably the best platoon mate available for LF outside of the guys we have already and the cost should be low (he has to be getting desperate to sign). Doubt it would happen, but it is worth thinking about. His P/F#'s are Power: 644, Neutral: 788, Finese: 822 lifetime. At 34 he is a bit old but a 1 year deal wouldn't be limiting for the Jays. If he doesn't work out you just release him.

Bo had a 115wrc+ in your 3yr split going into last year and a 70 the prior year. 112 projection had to weigh the downside risk of 2024 being a legit downturn in performance or permanent injury, though at the same thought it likely that the 70 from 2024 was a blip.

But i don't really see that comp as helpful - there were plenty of reasons to think Bo's 2024 was a fluky off-half-year, and I don't see any signs of fluke in Kirk's solid performance.

Wouldn't it makenmore sense for you to compare to what you thought about Kirk's projections last year? Projections remained stubbornly high on Kirk even after 2 down years and it looks like the projections were right to be.

I was willing to completely ignore Bichette's 2024 season though, because I had no real reason to think he had actually forgotten how to hit. It just felt like a completely lost season to injury. I remember saying I would be shocked if Springer was able to outperform Bichette in '25 because I thought Bichette would be right back to his 2019-2023 form. Well, I got half of that correct.

I probably thought Kirk's 105 OPS+ zips projection was around right for 2025 - a slightly above average hitter who flashed a great ceiling in 2022 followed by two meh years that were more than good enough for a solid defensive C.

Keegan Matheson@KeeganMatheson

It sounds like Shane Bieber will soon begin to ramp up in Dunedin. Regardless of how long that takes, it's good news.

I don't believe that because it won't fit the narrative that he only signed here because of fear of not passing a physical.

I've already seen charts on value of challenging calls in certain scenarios so I assume teams will make players at least generally aware of this.

Agreed about Davis, but do challenges have to be left up to the individual player to make on a subjective basis? Wouldn’t it make more sense to have a team-wide review system, with a designated coach launching a challenge where a high-tech review indicates one is warranted (kind of like the current safe/out challenge system)? I’m sure teams could figure out a way to do a near-instantaneous review of the accuracy of each ball/strike call.

I've thought about this a bit; if I were the manager, I'd restrict ABS challenges to high-leverage situations and (maybe) only to "high-trust" players. I'd probably establish a "challenge sign" or signal to be used before each at-bat or pitch, and it doesn't really need to be a secret from the other team. I'd ask the analytics department to figure out the situations where a changed ball or strike would result in the greatest potential impact on WPA and then use that to guide the decision-making.

That being said, you don't lose a challenge if you're right, so maybe I'd just give Kirk the green light all the time and see what happens...

The system is designed so that the challenges must come immediately from the players, with no help from the bench.

I look forward to watching games without the fake K zone again.

Greenfrog, by rule, the challenge must come from the pitcher, catcher, or hitter, and the umpire will disallow it if anyone else aids in the decision (other fielders, bench, etc.). I think the bench can "signal permission" before the play, but can't be involved after.

Thanks. Does the team retain their two challenges if a player successfully challenges a ball/strike call?

This is a helpful summary of the ABS rules: https://www.mlb.com/news/abs-challenge-system-mlb-2026

As for who should be allowed to challenge, I lean towards catchers, as they might be a little more detatched from the call than a hitter or pitcher. I could see some situational rules - only challenge with runners in scoring position, or in a close game. Or maybe you just go to some gamesmanship and challenge early and often in an attempt to make the opposing pitcher second-guess himself.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
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While nothing is finalized, the Blue Jays’ talks with Max Scherzer have gotten more serious in the last week per industry sources.

Other clubs in mix but Blue Jays now appear to be his most serious pursuer on a possible one-year deal. More @Sportsnet soon.

I like the idea of adding Scherzer. Wonder if he has enough left in the tank for one more season of strong performance.

It’s interesting to think about how a Scherzer acquisition might work.

Would the Blue Jays trade away one of their current SPs (possibly Lauer or Berrios) to make room for him?

Or move one or more arms to the bullpen (Yesavage or Berrios)?

Go with a six-man rotation?

I do think having Scherzer could potentially bring a lot to the 2026 team, both on and off the field.

Cease
Gausman
Bieber
Yesavage
Berrios
Scherzer
Lauer

That's 7 SP deep before factoring Tiedeman, Macko and Stanifer who stand to contribute soon. Either 2 of Gausman, Berrios and Bieber are hurt more than we know or there is another deal coming.

Tiedemann, Macko and Stanifer might contribute to the big-league team in 2026, but I doubt the Blue Jays are counting on this to happen.

Re Scherzer, it could be that the Blue Jays are looking at the rotation and seeing Gausman (age 35 and worked hard last year), Yesavage (innings limit), Berrios (high mileage and injured to end 2026), Ponce (promising but unproven in MLB) and Bieber (health questions), and deciding that they need some more quality depth than what they currently have on paper.

The Blue Jays are going to need a lot of innings pitched to get through the regular season and (hopefully) the playoffs.

Scherzer was great in the playoffs but it was an adventure to get there.
He made 17 starts, pitched 85 innings, went 5-5 with a 5.19 ERA.

If they need him in the rotation to start the year, there's probably more bad news coming.

Now, if they could pay him to ramp up slowly and join the team as needed...

I wonder the jays will roll out piggy back rotations like they did with Yesavage in the minors.

Lauer gets the start today.
They will try to start slowly with the pitchers who worked hard on October.
Yimi will start the year on the IL which opens up one bullpen spot.

In 10 days, Vlad, Gimenez, Kirk, Okamoto and Clement will leave for the WBC.
That's 5 regulars. Jimenez is also in it, so he's not getting any extra playing time, on the contrary.

Valenzuela should see a lot of play. The other AAA catcher (Stubbs) is also in the WBC.

Ben Cowles will probably be the regular SS. We should see if Kasevich has recovered and Nimmala is also in camp.
Fewer opportunities for outfielders. The guys in camp are Clase, Pinango, Schreck and Eloy Jimenez who just won MVP in the winter league.

I don't think this team will carry 8 SP "just in case" one of their 5/6 guys get tired. Are they better if they put Ponce and Lauer in the bullpen and use a 6 man rotation with Scherzer? It just doesn't make any sense to sign Scherzer while you have the other 7 unless there's an injury undisclosed or trade upcoming.

Cease
Gausman
Bieber
Yesavage
Berrios
Scherzer
Ponce
Lauer

That leaves room for what, 4 other pitchers in the bullpen?

Dalimon, don’t forget that Bieber won’t be great for the start of the season and Yeasavage will be on an innings limit. The could use Scherzer for a few weeks until one of them is able to come up, and then phantom IL Scherzer until late. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a full season from him.

A realistic expectation for Scherzer in 2026 might be around 90-110 regular-season innings and 5-20 postseason innings.

Roger Clemens in 2006 joined Houston late.
They could do a minor deal with a huge signing bonus.

Honestly i think the Jays came out of the world series most envious of the dodgers being able to win with only a couple of nominal "relievers" who were all middle relief guys, and did it with like 10 starting pitchers instead, with their best closers actually being starters.

Okamoto with the iron glove play:(

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

Adam Macko was sitting 95.8 mph with his fastball in that inning of work (touched 97.4). In his final AAA outing of 2025, he was at 94.1.

Relevant for both the #BlueJays’ pitching depth and Team Canada

That’s the hardest I’ve seen Macko throw. His secondaries didn’t look great but there’s something there if that’s his new velocity.

There's been a bunch of Eric Lauer quotes the last few days about him not being happy about his role. Considering how much the Jays value clubhouse chemistry and players who are team-first, it's possible that reuniting with Scherzer leads to a Lauer trade.

I kind of get it with Lauer. He was amazing and Jays stuck him in pen behind Berrios who was terrible. He was fantastic and barely pitched in playoffs. What more could he do? I can see a trade but also, he is actually a flexible option so he makes sense to have as a long guy/spot starter.

okamoto glove.

https://x.com/Sportsnet/status/2025278553143562748?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2025278553143562748%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Unless Ponce really shines I would think that there would be real value in having Lauer starting. Between his handedness and being legitimately good for much of last season, he’s a good bet to be something better than just a “5th starter”.

On one of the podcasts this week they said Ponce told them that the team promised him last year to start this year. They told him "help us out now (bullpen in 2025) and we will make sure you start in 2026. Then they signed Cease and Ponce and are planning to have Lauer in the pen. Also they took him to arbitration.

Sounds like they flat out lied to him.

The Blue Jays might have won the WS if they had been willing to use Lauer some more in the series. He was fresher than the pitchers they used who gave up key runs later in game 7 (Bassitt, Yesavage, Hoffman, Bieber).

Lauer* told them not Ponce

Can the Blue Jays ship a SP and 2-3 prospects to Arizona for Ketel Marte? Toronto could still use one more impact position player.

Then add Scherzer.

Now you're talking. That's the type of move I want to see.

Regarding Lauer, he would have had to pitch on short rest in Game 7 after pitching in games 1 and 3. He did 4 innings in game 3 and gave up 6 hits and walks against 2 strikeouts. He came up huge. What I find interesting is that if he could have gone longer then Brendon Little would have been spared and the Jays could have won. Lauer laboured the longer he went, I do remember that and Schneider refused to go against the analytics track preset for him.

Go trade a veteran and prospect for a big bat. Lauer, Tiedemann and a lower prospect for Marte sort of deal. Then signing Scherzer makes sense.

Cease
Gausman
Yesavage
Berrios
Ponce
Scherzer
Macko

Stanifer
Bloss

That's lots of depth and solid rotation. Someone will take Tiedeman as a center piece if he's pumping 97+ from the left side and has anything near his nasty change up pre surgery.

I think AZ is asking for a huge package for Marte, as well they should. Next year’s FA class is weak, and players like Tucker and Bo are getting $55-60m per year in free agency. Controllable and affordable star talent is going to cost a lot in a trade in the current market (even if Marte is 32).

Guessing it would take Lauer, Tiedemann, Nimmala and a lesser prospect to acquire Marte.

Lauer signed with the Jays because they offered him more than the other teams.

His arbitration set a precedent. Arbitration salaries only go up never down, but he was making more way back in in 2023 than what the Jays paid him last year.
So he gambled that he should get a raised based on his 2023 salary rather than his 2025 salary.
That didn't fly. What the Jays offered him is totally in line with arbitration projections.

He's a free agent.
He'll get paid if he's any good, but not if he's a whiner.
Podcasts are a way to find a job as a commentator.

The pitchers looked good but that wasn't the Phillies' best. 
McAdoo seems to have a decent arm. 

Only scored on long balls because of double plays.

Lauer is being stretched as a starter.
He's basically in the role Yariel Rodriguez was last year.
He's in line to start on bullpen days.
Yariel is way back as depth down the line.

I think all this Scherzer talk is, and should be, insulting to Lauer.

Laying aside the negative stuff that would need to happen for him to get a rotation spot,I'd rather give Lauer his due as bring back Max,and would be pretty confident in getting better results.

[Lauer] told them that the team promised him last year to start this year. They told him "help us out now (bullpen in 2025) and we will make sure you start in 2026
We obviously don't know who said what to who, but if the team management talks to players anything like they talk to the media, I can't see "promise" in their vocabulary. 
I like Lauer a lot, but he got bumped from the rotation in September, and he only signed with Toronto in the first place after injuries & terribleness sent thim to Korea. I don't think anyone is promising him a spot in the starting rotation.

I agree Ryan. I’d be really surprised if anything was promised. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lauer looked around the dugout and thought “I’m one of the 5 best starters”. I don’t really get the Scherzer talk.

You guys are writing off what happened. I didn't hear some podcaster randomly musing. I don't remember if it was Arden Zwelling, BNS or Mike Wilner but it was a JOURNALIST that flew to Florida and spoke to Lauer who told them this information. He basically made a point to tell the journalist he's unhappy and told them the Jays made a promise and then failed to deliver.

IMO the 1st 2 months of the season will establish what kind of season the SPs are having to date. Also who looks good as a possible 6th to 8th starter in case they are needed.

Rogers projections are off because projections don't know what to do with outlier pitchers like him whose stuff looks terrible on paper but are actually very hard to hit. His career ERA is one run lower than his career XFIP. Similar R. A. Dickey. These guys are just outliers.

I'm a bit less optimistic about Rogers. To be clear, I'm pleased with the acquisition and I think he'll be a good reliever for the Blue Jays this year. But age catches up to most players in their mid-30s, and I don't see Rogers as equivalent to a Niekro-like knuckleballer. It looks to me like his delivery requires a lot of athleticism, skill and health. It seems plausible to me that his age 35-37 seasons will be somewhat worse than his age 32-34 seasons.

Very well said Mr Green

I suspect Rogers method - extremely down under - is messing up projection systems. These systems are designed for projecting 'normal' players, not extremes. Rogers, knuckleballers, and other oddities will rarely be easy to project via the usual systems, I suspect teams have special projection systems for just those types (if I ran a club I know I'd have people working on that). Quisenberry up to 32 was an ACE of the pen - 4 year stretch of 3-5 bWAR as a reliever, an insane level. 2 years in the 2's before that, and 2 years of 1.7 after it. Then at 35 everything fell apart. Negative WAR despite BB/9, K/9, HR/9 all in eyeshot of his past, heck, better than his past. Hit H/9 jumped by 2 though. His next year was solid 0.9 bWAR but just had one more season left before being forgotten. KC removing him from the closer role after his 4 peak years was bizarre to me at the time - at 32 he was 37-12 in SV-BSv, at 33 12-4 (still solid) but KC decided to let Bud Black and Steve Farr take a stack of save opportunities (17-3) despite both having inferior overall stats. In the following year even more guys got opportunities before Farr got it full time the next year, just to be quickly replaced by Jeff Montgomery.

Sidearmers are rarely respected. Just like knuckleballers. Both have crazy endurance and can be effective for a long time, but neither makes managers feel as safe as seeing a guy pump in the gas. Like all pitchers, their arms have a limit, the question is how to measure when it is hit - and that is a damn hard thing to measure. Is it a loss in velocity, spin rate, consistency in arm angle? I don't know. The lack of data due to so few of them existing makes projection systems harder to set up. Teams I'm sure measure all of those things and more in an attempt to know when a guy's best before date is.

Oh man, that was one of the worst routes you will ever see an OF take there by Sanchez:(

180 posts, time for a new thread.