Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

With a potential lockout post 2026 I have been thinking about the payroll spread that is such a big issue - and it does suck, even as a Jays fan and our team is spending money. Imagine Rays fans (all 100 of them).

So how to dig into this? There are a few ways - opening day payrolls by team are available at The Baseball Cube with data going back to 1988. For 2026 I used Spotrac. Top salaries going back to 1985. Lets see what that tells us. I mixed it with data from a few other sources to expand back to 1977 when the Jays first existed. Minimum Salary: baseball-almanac.com and Top Salary: sabr.org Took a bit of hunting to find stuff, but it is mostly out there. The SABR site went back to 1874 ($2,800 for Fergy Malone).

Note: These figures are based on raw payroll (what a player costs them this year) not what they use for the CBT (tax). The CBT figure is over $20 mil higher for the Dodgers. Jays raw figure is $275,503,793 for 2026 btw. No guarantee figures are dead on as teams hide as much as they can.

Year	Total Payroll	Minimum	Average	Top Player Salary	Top Salary	Highest Payroll	High $	Lowest Payroll	Low $	Top Salary vs Min	Top Team vs Min
2026	5,213,793,434	780,000	6,684,351	Kyle Tucker	$55,000,000	Los Angeles Dodgers	$375,665,747	Miami Marlins	$52,180,000	70.5	7.2
2025	5,075,316,630	760,000	5,200,000	Juan Soto	$51,875,000	Los Angeles Dodgers	$331,013,580	Miami Marlins	$68,004,097	68.3	4.9
2024	4,906,571,671	740,000	4,888,833	Max Scherzer	$43,333,333	New York Mets	$307,792,124	Oakland Athletics	$61,945,000	58.6	5.0
2023	4,451,414,228	720,000	4,644,046	Max Scherzer	$43,333,333	New York Mets	$334,233,332	Oakland Athletics	$43,145,000	60.2	7.7
2022	4,200,988,230	700,000	4,317,736	Max Scherzer	$43,333,333	Los Angeles Dodgers	$285,508,333	Oakland Athletics	$32,548,334	61.9	8.8
2021	3,825,147,026	570,500	4,170,000	Mike Trout	$37,116,667	Los Angeles Dodgers	$241,372,403	Pittsburgh Pirates	$45,599,000	65.1	5.3
2020	3,735,758,835	563,500	4,724,815	Mike Trout	$36,000,000	New York Yankees	$214,291,339	Pittsburgh Pirates	$42,119,000	63.9	5.1
2019	4,007,869,480	555,000	4,509,524	Max Scherzer	$42,142,857	Boston Red Sox	$222,171,123	Tampa Bay Rays	$60,444,931	75.9	3.7
2018	4,141,041,635	545,000	4,095,686	Mike Trout	$33,250,000	Boston Red Sox	$235,649,368	Oakland Athletics	$68,534,631	61.0	3.4
2017	3,878,284,045	535,000	4,097,122	Clayton Kershaw	$33,000,000	Los Angeles Dodgers	$187,989,811	San Diego Padres	$34,574,400	61.7	5.4
2016	3,937,842,897	507,500	3,966,020	Clayton Kershaw	$32,000,000	Los Angeles Dodgers	$253,639,162	Milwaukee Brewers	$62,964,319	63.1	4.0
2015	3,658,284,542	507,500	3,952,252	Clayton Kershaw	$31,000,000	Los Angeles Dodgers	$230,352,402	Arizona Diamondbacks	$65,770,333	61.1	3.5
2014	3,453,960,397	500,000	3,818,923	Zack Greinke	$28,000,000	Los Angeles Dodgers	$235,295,219	Houston Astros	$44,544,174	56.0	5.3
2013	3,187,568,088	490,000	3,386,212	Alex Rodriguez	$29,000,000	New York Yankees	$228,995,945	Houston Astros	$24,328,538	59.2	9.4
2012	2,940,657,192	480,000	3,213,479	Alex Rodriguez	$30,000,000	New York Yankees	$197,962,289	San Diego Padres	$55,244,700	62.5	3.6
2011	2,786,161,291	414,000	3,095,183	Alex Rodriguez	$32,000,000	New York Yankees	$202,689,028	Kansas City Royals	$36,126,000	77.3	5.6
2010	2,730,601,685	400,000	3,014,572	Alex Rodriguez	$33,000,000	New York Yankees	$206,333,389	Pittsburgh Pirates	$34,943,000	82.5	5.9
2009	2,655,395,194	400,000	2,996,106	Alex Rodriguez	$33,000,000	New York Yankees	$201,449,189	Florida Marlins	$36,834,000	82.5	5.5
2008	2,686,433,458	390,000	2,925,679	Alex Rodriguez	$28,000,000	New York Yankees	$209,081,577	Florida Marlins	$21,811,500	71.8	9.6
2007	2,476,688,987	380,000	2,824,751	Jason Giambi	$23,428,571	New York Yankees	$189,259,045	Tampa Bay Rays	$24,123,500	61.7	7.8
2006	2,326,706,685	327,000	2,699,292	Alex Rodriguez	$21,680,727	New York Yankees	$194,663,079	Florida Marlins	$14,998,500	66.3	13.0
2005	2,191,886,898	316,000	2,476,589	Alex Rodriguez	$26,000,000	New York Yankees	$208,306,817	Tampa Bay Rays	$29,679,067	82.3	7.0
2004	2,071,265,943	300,000	2,313,535	Manny Ramirez	$22,500,000	New York Yankees	$184,193,950	Milwaukee Brewers	$27,528,500	75.0	6.7
2003	2,127,863,461	300,000	2,372,189	Alex Rodriguez	$22,000,000	New York Yankees	$152,749,814	Tampa Bay Rays	$19,630,000	73.3	7.8
2002	2,024,680,522	200,000	2,295,649	Alex Rodriguez	$22,000,000	New York Yankees	$125,928,583	Tampa Bay Rays	$34,380,000	110.0	3.7
2001	1,962,841,814	200,000	2,138,896	Alex Rodriguez	$22,000,000	New York Yankees	$112,287,143	Minnesota Twins	$24,130,000	110.0	4.7
2000	1,686,271,795	200,000	1,895,630	Kevin Brown	$15,714,286	New York Yankees	$92,938,260	Minnesota Twins	$15,654,500	78.6	5.9
1999	1,445,119,433	200,000	1,611,166	Albert Belle	$11,949,794	New York Yankees	$88,130,709	Florida Marlins	$15,150,000	59.7	5.8
1998	1,210,532,333	170,000	1,398,831	Gary Sheffield	$14,936,667	Baltimore Orioles	$70,408,134	Montreal Expos	$9,202,000	87.9	7.7
1997	1,061,631,360	150,000	1,336,609	Albert Belle	$10,000,000	New York Yankees	$59,148,877	Pittsburgh Pirates	$9,071,666	66.7	6.5
1996	895,178,844	122,667	1,119,981	Cecil Fielder	$9,237,500	New York Yankees	$52,189,370	Montreal Expos	$15,410,500	75.3	3.4
1995	882,082,040	109,000	1,110,766	Cecil Fielder	$9,237,500	Toronto Blue Jays	$49,791,500	Montreal Expos	$12,031,000	84.7	4.1
1994	884,936,262	109,000	1,168,263	Bobby Bonilla	$6,300,000	New York Yankees	$44,785,334	San Diego Padres	$13,529,333	57.8	3.3
1993	856,648,188	109,000	1,076,089	Bobby Bonilla	$6,200,000	Toronto Blue Jays	$45,747,666	Colorado Rockies	$8,829,000	56.9	5.2
1992	783,893,948	109,000	1,028,667	Bobby Bonilla	$6,100,000	New York Mets	$44,352,002	Cleveland Indians	$8,236,166	56.0	5.4
1991	630,008,474	100,000	851,492	Darryl Strawberry	$3,800,000	Oakland Athletics	$33,632,500	Houston Astros	$11,546,000	38.0	2.9
1990	454,422,925	100,000	597,537	Robin Yount	$3,200,000	Kansas City Royals	$23,873,745	Chicago White Sox	$9,496,238	32.0	*2.5*
1989	350,909,782	68,000	497,254	Orel Hershiser	$2,766,667	Los Angeles Dodgers	$21,584,161	Chicago White Sox	$7,595,561	40.7	2.8
1988	294,880,320	62,500	438,729	Ozzie Smith	$2,340,000	New York Yankees	$18,909,152	Chicago White Sox	$5,906,952	37.4	3.2
1987	268,095,100	62,500	412,454	Mike Schmidt	$2,127,333	Kansas City Royals	$12,498,500	Pittsburgh Pirates	$4,024,500	34.0	3.1
1986	268,138,000	60,000	412,520	George Foster	$2,800,000	Atlanta Braves	$15,243,050	Seattle Mariners	$5,768,100	46.7	2.6
1985	241,521,150	60,000	371,571	Mike Schmidt	$2,130,300	New York Yankees	$13,659,100	Seattle Mariners	$4,242,350	35.5	3.2
1984	214,115,200	40,000	329,408	Mike Schmidt	$1,989,875	New York Yankees	$11,463,600	Cleveland Indians	$3,994,350	49.7	2.9
1983	187,976,100	35,000	289,194	Mike Schmidt	$1,652,333	New York Mets	$11,599,675	Minnesota Twins	$2,449,500	47.2	4.7
1982	156,973,050	33,500	241,497	Mike Schmidt	$1,500,000	California Angels	$10,585,075	Minnesota Twins	$1,683,375	44.8	6.3
1981	120,673,150	32,500	185,651	Dave Winfield	$1,400,000	New York Yankees	$7,746,375	Minnesota Twins	$2,143,400	43.1	3.6
1980	93,441,400	30,000	143,756	Nolan Ryan	$1,000,000	New York Yankees	$6,073,425	Oakland Athletics	$1,374,850	33.3	4.4
1979	73,812,700	21,000	113,558	Rod Carew	$800,000	New York Yankees	$4,980,900	Oakland Athletics	$1,030,500	38.1	4.8
1978	64,919,400	21,000	99,876	Mike Schmidt	$560,000	New York Yankees	$4,722,000	Oakland Athletics	$1,231,450	*26.7*	3.8
1977	49,442,900	19,000	76,066	Mike Schmidt	$560,000	Philadelphia Phillies	$3,497,900	Toronto Blue Jays	$858,000	29.5	4.1

Interesting to see the biggest payroll spread was just after the Yankees dominance in the World Series - 2006 when they were 3 years away from their final World Series win so far. The smallest was in 1990, during the Jays time as one of the best in the game (1989-1993 they won the division 4 out of 5 years with 2 World Series titles of course). That biggest spread was 13 times the minimum. The Dodgers would need to really up their game to get there - the lowest for 2026 is currently estimated to be $52.2 mil so 13 times that is $678.3 mil vs the just shy of $400 mil they are at - so to match the spread of the Yankees back in 2006 the Dodgers need to spend another $303 million (more than the Jays current payroll). Tells you how insane the Yankees were in the 00's with their spending vs everyone else - or how cheap the other owners were.

For the spread from richest to poorest player the smallest was 1978 when Mike Schmidt led with just $560k (well below the current minimum) and the minimum was just $21k. The biggest being in 2001 and 2002 when A-Rod was making $22 mil a year and the minimum was $200k. An insane 110x spread. A player would need to be making $85.8 million now to match that giant spread.

So in the 55 years the Jays have existed the top team for spending has been the Yankees. Here is a summary of how teams have ranked in payroll (#1 or dead last).

Team	Top	Bottom
New York Yankees	26	0
Los Angeles Dodgers	9	0
New York Mets	4	0
Boston Red Sox	2	0
Kansas City Royals	2	1
Toronto Blue Jays	2	1
Atlanta Braves	1	0
Baltimore Orioles	1	0
California Angels	1	0
Philadelphia Phillies	1	0
Oakland Athletics	1	7
Arizona Diamondbacks	0	1
Colorado Rockies	0	1
Cleveland Indians	0	2
Miami Marlins	0	2
Milwaukee Brewers	0	2
Seattle Mariners	0	2
Chicago White Sox	0	3
Houston Astros	0	3
Montreal Expos	0	3
San Diego Padres	0	3
Florida Marlins	0	4
Minnesota Twins	0	5
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	5
Tampa Bay Rays	0	5

Note: Washington hasn't been #1 or #30 since moving there from Montreal.

Interesting how a handful of teams have been high spenders and low at some point. The A's probably surprise younger readers - in the 80's and early 90's they were a high spending team and seen as the best in baseball. Willing to do what it took to win. Then they got cheap and lucky and did well in the early 00's - a 7 year stretch of contention (2000-2006) but never winning a game in the ALCS (made it there once, swept by the Tigers). Then a 5 year drought before 3 more playoffs (never past the ALDS), 3 more off years, 3 more playoffs (same result), now up to 5 years of ick.

Others who did both were KC with 2 leading, 1 trailing (yes, they also were a rich team in the 80's), and the Jays (1977 bottom, no shock as an expansion team, then #1 in 93 and 95 - showing that spending doesn't always work but sometimes it does).

For pure fan abuse hard to beat the Rays (5 dead lasts in 28 years), but the Pirates and Twins tried (also 5 dead lasts without ever leading). Expos used to be near the top but then were taken over by a scumbag who sucked everything they could out of the team then dumped the carcass onto MLB.

A bit surprising that the Red Sox only led twice in the Jays existence, which is tied with KC and the Jays. The Mets & Dodgers both trying to take over 'evil empire' status from the Yankees now but have a long way to go and you know MLB will try to set it up so it is near impossible to get a payroll spread like 2006. Checking average payroll per club vs #1 the biggest spread is 2005 at 2.9 times (NYY $208.3 vs Avg $73.1). Smallest was 1987 at 1.2 times (KC $12.5 vs Avg $10.3). This year is projected at 2.2 but is now less with a few recent signings not factored in (Suarez for example). 2023 was worse at 2.3, 2017 was down to 1.5. It'll be interesting to see how MLB and the players adjust things next winter. I'm seeing new tax levels on the way.

Posted by June Northey on Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 04:50 PM EST.

Payroll Spread | 53 comments | Create New Account

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vw_fan17 - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 05:58 PM EST (#475196) #

What's crazy to me is the number of times one player has been paid more than entire teams.. In the end, you can't win by yourself

Michael - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 06:53 PM EST (#475197) #

Interesting numbers, I think another way to look at is at player costs by decade, and also compare to US as a whole (of course the key other numbers to include would be the MLB total team revenue and MLB total team value - both of which are far above the salary. For instance in 2024 MLB revenue was 12.1 billion, so even if all 30 teams spent as much as the top team the average team would still be raking in a hundred million more in revenue than the salaries):

From 1980-1990:
MLB Minimum salary: 233% increase ($30K-$100K)
MLB Average salary: 315% increase ($144K-$598K)
CPI: 63.8% increase ($100 in 1980 purchased $163.75 in 1990)
US national wage index: 68.0% increase ($12,513-$21,028)
US median household income: 33.5% increase starting in 1984 (first year with my data set) ($22,420-$29,940)

From 1990-2000:
MLB Minimum salary: 100% increase ($100K-$200K)
MLB Average salary: 217% increase ($598K-$1.896M)
CPI: 32.5% increase ($100 in 1990 purchased $132.50 in 2000)
US national wage index: 52.9% increase ($21,028-$32,155)
US median household income: 40.2% increase ($29,940-$41,990)

From 2000-2010:
MLB Minimum salary: 100% increase ($200K-$400K)
MLB Average salary: 59.0% increase ($1.896M-$3.015M)
CPI: 28.4% increase ($100 in 2000 purchased $128.37 in 2010)
US national wage index: 29.6% increase ($32,155-$41,674)
US median household income: 17.4% increase ($41,990-$49,280)

From 2010-2020:
MLB Minimum salary: 40.9% increase ($400K-$563.5K)
MLB Average salary: 56.7% increase ($3.015M-$4.725M)
CPI: 19.1% increase ($100 in 2010 purchased $119.05 in 2020)
US national wage index: 33.5% increase ($41,674-$55,629)
US median household income: 38.0% increase ($49,280-$68,010)

From 2020-now(or as late as the data set goes):
MLB Minimum salary (2026): 38.4% increase ($563.5K-$780K)
MLB Average salary (2026): 41.5% increase ($4.725M-$6.684M)
CPI (Dec 2025): 25.6% increase ($100 in 2020 purchased $125.62 in Dec 2025)
US national wage index (2024): 25.6% increase ($55,629-$69,847)
US median household income (2024): 23.1% increase ($68,010-$83,730)

So again the MLB revenues and franchise values are probably the most important thing to track with salaries, but the above suggests to me that baseball salaries aren't an especially problematic acceleration lately. Inflation in the first half of the 2020s overall in the economy is much higher than most times, more similar to the 1980-1990 period than any of the times more recently. You can see US salaries already in the first 4 years of the decade have gone up about as much or more than they did in the slow 2000-2010 decade (dot com bust and the global financial crisis in same decade). Baseball salaries in the first 6 years of decade (so more time than CPI/salaries) is roughly accelerating at the same pace as last two decades and certainly nothing like the two decades before that. Average baseball salaries are certainly outpacing average salaries overall (11.5 times in 1980 to 84.9 times in 2020) but much of that increase was in the 1980-2000 times (59.0 times by 2000).

So maybe you could ask for slightly higher luxury tax amounts, but really if you wanted a better eco system the bottom teams are as much or more the problem, so I'd be looking at a $1M min salary by 2030, and ask that if we increase the luxury tax brackets/amounts that you have a spending soft floor of 100 times the minimum salary and any team under that amount is treated like the teams maximally over the soft salary cap/luxury tax complete with lost draft picks, add lost revenue sharing money/competitive balance dollars, and have them pay a tax on the amount they are under about that is greater than 100% (so it makes no financial sense to be under). And if I were the MLBPA I'd be looking to index both the minimum salary and the luxury tax thresh holds to increase each year automatically by whichever is higher the CPI or the MLB total revenue. Players in MLB already get a smaller cut of revenue than other major sports leagues (by a few percent).

Of course I suspect the owners will never go for that as there are too many owners that want to spend too little on the team to stay competitive and too many that just want to artificially suppress salaries more. Owners already get to suppress salaries a ton pre-arbitration, and some again in arbitration, before free agency.

I guess the other way that could cut down a bit on the top spenders, make the minimum salary for each team different, where the minimum salary is the MLB minimum salary or something like 1/150 or 1/200 of your payroll (or of your max ever payroll). So now if you are a bigger spending team, even your MLB rookies end up needing to cost you more. No major league minimum salary for the Dodgers, the minimum major league salary for them would be $2.5M (and might go up if the new minimum pulled up the team salary until equilibrium is found). This would be an added tax on the top teams that might be slightly more palatable to the players because the tax amount goes to other players.

scottt - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 10:33 AM EST (#475199) #

Paying an extra million or two for pre-arb player is meaningless for a team willing to spend over 100M on luxury tax.
Remember, the first 3.5M of luxury tax goes to players pensions/benefits and the remainder is split 50/50 between players and the revenue sharing fund.

Glevin - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 11:00 AM EST (#475202) #

Buck Martinez retiring. Incredible career. Hope Jays do a nice ceremony for him.

uglyone - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 11:22 AM EST (#475203) #

Buck and Dan is as good a duo as you ever could have wanted.

Pat and Buck not so much.

but yeah he'll be missed. genuine jays legend.

Gerry - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 12:38 PM EST (#475205) #

I hope Buck is retiring for a rest and his health is still OK.

vw_fan17 - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 12:38 PM EST (#475206) #

Buck did it all: player, manager and broadcaster. He was never part of the front office, IIRC, but still - quite impressive. A true Blue Jays legend, if for no other reason than that he always talked up the org and Canada. And he could laugh at himself.

greenfrog - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 12:57 PM EST (#475207) #

I thought Buck improved as a broadcaster over time. I really enjoyed listening to him in recent years. A true Blue Jays legend.

Gerry - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 03:05 PM EST (#475210) #

I will miss it when players make an "air".

June Northey - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 07:54 PM EST (#475211) #

Yep, sad to see Buck go, but I hope he has a happy retirement. I suspect he'll be by now and then for an inning or two just for fun. Much like they have guests in the booth. Wonder who'll take over his role? Should be interesting to see. I figure an ex-player will be picked. Wonder if any Canadian ex-players are good for it. Joe Siddall would make sense - he is there already, seems solid, probably deserves first crack.

greenfrog - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 08:02 PM EST (#475212) #

ESPN trade proposal: "Toronto Blue Jays trade OF Davis Schneider to Cardinals for LHP JoJo Romero"

Um, no thanks.

Michael - Saturday, February 07 2026 @ 02:26 AM EST (#475213) #

"Paying an extra million or two for pre-arb player is meaningless for a team willing to spend over 100M on luxury tax."

Maybe, maybe not. Looking right now I think there are only 14 dodgers due to make more than 3.5M next year, so owing and extra 2-3 million on more than a dozen players means the cost is more akin to 25-40 M. It would vary by team, but it isn't "free" by any means.

June Northey - Saturday, February 07 2026 @ 10:08 AM EST (#475214) #

Every dollar counts to a team. IMO the union should push for a much higher minimum salary. That would impact most players (around half never get to 6 years service time) and would effectively set a higher floor. $1 mil = $26 mil payroll floor, $4 mil = $104 mil floor, or about double where the Marlins are right now. So increase from there on teams shooting over all tax levels (Dodgers) and it becomes harder to push them to the 2006 NYY spread.

pooks137 - Saturday, February 07 2026 @ 06:56 PM EST (#475215) #

I hope Buck is retiring for a rest and his health is still OK.

Buck made some comments in media interviews upon his late summer return after his extended absence from the broadcast booth that he made a personal decision to return to work somewhat against doctor's advice because his previous Head & Neck cancer had progressed to metastatic. And that he was returning to work because he still felt okay, but that he'd mostly exhausted his treatment options.

I looked up his particular cancer at the time. His 5-year prognosis was actually much better than one would normally expect for Stage IV.

I have no reason to suspect that Buck's current health situation has deteriorated presently.

But despite Martinez doing many sports media personal interviews after the end of his leave where he was being fairly frank about his personal health situation, Buck's robust return midstream during the Jays' Cinderella run last year really caused most fans to miss IMHO that he was essentially announcing that he was declared technically palliative by his oncologists. Where any future treatments wouldn't have curative intent.

vw_fan17 - Saturday, February 07 2026 @ 10:54 PM EST (#475216) #

Wow, so Buck basically came back because he loved the team.. Wish we could have hung on for one more inning for him..

Glevin - Sunday, February 08 2026 @ 09:42 AM EST (#475217) #

As Jays fans, we've been extremely lucky to have such great broadcast teams. Cheek, Howarth, Schulman, Buck, Wilner. Truly blessed.

bpoz - Sunday, February 08 2026 @ 01:45 PM EST (#475218) #

For playoff baseball 2 v good SPs are valuable. Detroit has Skubal and Valdez. If they end up AL Central champs but in a WC game against Toronto, NYY or Boston I give them an advantage even if the 3 AL East teams have better records.

scottt - Sunday, February 08 2026 @ 02:44 PM EST (#475219) #

Buck was pretty special. Well worthy of his own thread perhaps. According to Bref, he accumulated 4.5 WAR over 17 years.

June Northey - Monday, February 09 2026 @ 08:44 AM EST (#475225) #

scottt - I agreee, I've debated putting one up but feel others who write here would do a better job (especially with me being a touch pre-occupied right now as one can imagine).

Gerry - Monday, February 09 2026 @ 09:33 AM EST (#475228) #

Several new top prospect lists have come out recently, from Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law among others. In addition BA listed their number 31 to 40 prospects.

While there are a lot of similarities between the lists and our own top 30, there are two prospects who seem to be very divisive this off season. Sam Shaw is out of BA's top 30 while Kiley McDaniel has him in his top ten. Keith Law has him at 13. BA notes his good exit velocities but calls them surprising. Law thinks he could be a lead off hitter.

Fernando Perez is the other one. His low strikeout numbers have many concerned while some like Keith Law believe he can work on a new pitch or just use his command to get outs.

Both of these players will be closely watched when the season starts.

dalimon5 - Monday, February 09 2026 @ 01:28 PM EST (#475238) #

Boston with a trade for Caleb Durbin. I'm not going to look into it. I'll wait for fellow Beauxites to analyze and decide if this is a big deal or not.

greenfrog - Monday, February 09 2026 @ 04:30 PM EST (#475241) #

Durbin seems like a Blue Jays type of player. Solid defense (and defensive versatility), doesn’t hit the ball hard but has a high contact rate, pulls the ball a lot (good for Fenway Park?), runs well.

Could be an example of a team emulating the Blue Jays 2025 approach to winning.

dalimon5 - Monday, February 09 2026 @ 05:38 PM EST (#475242) #

Short of amazing years from Rutschman and Henderson the team worrying me the most is the Red Sox now.

soupman - Monday, February 09 2026 @ 06:39 PM EST (#475243) #

Time will tell, but anyone giving Popkins credit for the Jays fortunes last year should be mindful that the O's also went into 2025 with a new hitting coaches - and they've replaced them for guys their fans think will work to Adley's natural tendencies and bring him closer in line to the guy that was ROY and then went to the all star game in his next two seasons before whatever you want to say happened last year. Also Holliday just turned 22, and Mayo was the #14 prospect in baseball going into 2024. They have Alonso and Mountcastle for power. Not to mention the top of their rotation is extremely under-rated.

Where is it almost inconceivable the Dodgers miss the playoffs, any of the AL East teams (including the Jays) could fall out of it and I would not be surprised in the least.

Glevin - Monday, February 09 2026 @ 07:21 PM EST (#475245) #

Durbin is not good defensively. He's a useful player and because of pull rates will probably over perform in Fenway but Red Sox seemed to have gone the cheap route again. I don't get the trade for Milwaukee though.

greenfrog - Monday, February 09 2026 @ 09:37 PM EST (#475248) #

Do you have stats to back up that claim, Glevin? Because Durbin had a 57th percentile fielding run value last year (his first season in the majors), which seems pretty good.

Here's a Sept. 5, 2025 Brew Crew article on Durbin (saying that his defense "has graded out just fine: he’s been worth 0.8 dWAR according to Baseball Reference and 2.5 runs above average according to FanGraphs"):

https://www.brewcrewball.com/milwaukee-brewers-commentary-analysis/71653/caleb-durbin-proving-doubters-wrong

And MassLive notes the following:

Durbin, who will turn 26 on Feb. 22, had five defensive runs saved in 1,060 ⅔ innings at third base last year. He had minus-1 defensive runs saved in 43 ⅓ innings at second base.

He also had zero outs above replacement at third and minus-1 at second base.

His stats are better at third but it’s difficult to judge his second base defense based on such a small sample size.

According to his Baseball America scouting report, “He is a versatile defender who saw time at all three non-shortstop spots on the infield as well (as) a handful of games in the outfield as well. Second or third base is his most likely home, and he should be average at either spot thanks to quick feet and a throwing arm which is at least average.”

He played more innings at second base (1,286 ⅔ innings) than at third base (628) in the minors. He also logged 343 ⅔ innings at shortstop, 65 ⅔ innings in left field and nine innings in center field.

June Northey - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 12:25 AM EST (#475252) #

This division is nuts. Boston looks to have done well there - getting a 2.8 WAR guy who is 25. Very underwhelming package going back to Milwaukee - David Hamilton is a gold glove IF but can't hit (63 OPS+ last year), Drohan at 26 had a good year in AAA but 0 ML experience at that age makes one wonder if there is anything there of significance. Harrison might be good, and is just entering his age 24 season. But for a guy who had 2.8 bWAR last year with 6 years of control left that is very little. Plus Boston got a draft pick and a meh backup IF. This pushes IKF off the near everyday role he was slotted for and into a much more appropriate backup role.

Sigh. Meanwhile the rumor mill keeps spouting out JoJo Romero for the Jays for one of the backup OF (mostly Schneider). I could see that working as the Jays have spare OF'ers and could use another LH in the pen who can be counted on, but more moves would have to happen as the pen is overcrowded as is with Fisher, Fluharty, and Lee all out on the FG site while ignoring the 2 rule 5 guys who the Jays want to hold onto. Something has to give at some point. You can't have a 10 man bullpen or a 6+ man rotation.

greenfrog - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 12:10 PM EST (#475254) #

Per ESPN:

What is the one thing you are most excited about as spring training begins?

Alden Gonzalez: There is an energy around Dodgers camp that's different. It has been like that since Shohei Ohtani showed up at Camelback Ranch for the first time three springs ago, and it keeps growing, intensifying with every star who's added and every championship that's won. This time, the overarching theme will be the Dodgers' quest for a three-peat, amid the backdrop of a brewing labor fight that their spending has helped escalate. Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz are the newcomers, joining what was already one of the most star-laden rosters in baseball history.

Ohtani will be prepping for a full, no-restrictions two-way season; Roki Sasaki will be looking to establish himself in his second year; Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow will strive to prove that they can still perform like stars in the back halves of their careers; and young, ascendent players such as River Ryan, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Ward and Josue De Paula, among many others, will dot the complex as fans visiting from all over the world look on. There will be no shortage of storylines. There will be no shortage of intrigue.

Excuse me while I go vomit.

scottt - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 12:31 PM EST (#475255) #

Sugano signs in Colorado. Ouch. Not the change of venues the poor guy needed.
It's a one year deal and he'll back in Japan after that.

scottt - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 12:34 PM EST (#475256) #

I figure ICE will be providing the energy around Chavez Ravine during the year as visiting fans from all over the world try to stay out of detention.

scottt - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 12:40 PM EST (#475257) #

Durbin is no Bregman.
He fits perfectly around Trevor Story and Jarren Duran.
Boston's pitching with Baltimore's lineup would be scary, but both teams seem to be missing something.

Glevin - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 12:47 PM EST (#475258) #

Durban had 50th % range, 0 OAA, and 0% success added. That's a mediocre fielder. Mediocre fielder and mediocre hitter who plays infield is still a useful player but he isn't a difference maker or anything.

92-93 - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 12:59 PM EST (#475259) #

Weird, I was at Game 5 of the World Series and didn’t notice any ICE agents at Dodgers Stadium.

greenfrog - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 01:21 PM EST (#475261) #

I'm not sure why a player in his mid-20s being average (or a bit better, per Savant's 57th percentile assessment) as a fielder who played both 3B and 2B, in only his first season in the majors, following a generally positive review of his defensive skills by Baseball America, leads inexorably to the conclusion that he is a "mediocre" defender.

greenfrog - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 01:29 PM EST (#475262) #

Also, wouldn't it be more interesting to see what Durbin does with Boston in 2026, rather than immediately dismissing him as a mediocre hitter and mediocre fielder? I mean, he's still a young MLB player, and Brewers fans seem pretty positive about him. I'm not prepared to assume we know everything we need to know about him after one season.

mathesond - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 02:57 PM EST (#475263) #

Verlander back to Detroit.

Glevin - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 03:04 PM EST (#475264) #

0 OAA, 0 FRV, 50th percentile range. He was the definition of mediocre. He might improve moving to 3B but he isn't a plus defender.

scottt - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 03:19 PM EST (#475265) #

Positive review means that he was somewhere in the 15-21 range in the Brewers system. Future Value 40.
Every teams has guys like this.
He could be like a young Santiago Espinal, but he's not like a young Alex Bregman.
That's all that matters.

There's no scary bats in that lineup.
Just keep Anthony in the park.

greenfrog - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 04:14 PM EST (#475267) #

Glevin, that is pretty thin gruel to support your summary opinion about Durbin's defense.

By contrast, here's a detailed and recent Brew Crew assessment of Durbin from someone who has actually watched him play baseball:

https://www.brewcrewball.com/milwaukee-brewers-commentary-analysis/75742/is-caleb-durbin-the-brewers-long-term-answer-at-third-base

The author notes that Durbin "is not a finished product," provides this positive (but balanced) summary of Durbin's defense:

Defensively, third base has never been Durbin’s most natural position. He came up through the minors playing multiple spots in the infield, with more than half his games at second base, and that versatility remains part of his appeal. At third, he showed adequate range, solid instincts, and improving footwork, though his defense was not without rough patches.

For the Brewers, that versatility cuts both ways. It provides flexibility when constructing the roster, but it also makes it harder to know whether Durbin should be locked into one spot. Long term, his ability to remain reliable defensively at third base will be just as important as any gains he makes with the bat.

Mike Green - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 04:40 PM EST (#475270) #

I read the Brew Crew Ball report about Durbin. It missed one important thing. His good OBP was built on 24 HBP in less than a full season's PAs. Can he manage to do this over a number of seasons, like Ron Hunt or Craig Biggio? Maybe. And if he can put the ball over the Green Monster often enough, he might be quite valuable even as an average defender. I can imagine it.

Cracka - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 05:24 PM EST (#475271) #

Santander to have surgery and miss 5-6 months. What a mess...

Bowden Francis is also out for the season.

Glevin - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 05:34 PM EST (#475272) #

Using data is not thin gruel. OAA and FRV both have him as exactly league average so even with some margin of error for defensive stats, there is no way he isn't an average defender. Whats funny to me is that the quote you provide pretty much reads average defender as well. "Adaquate range, solid instincts, and improving footwork with some rough patches". As Mike points out, the HBP are likely not repeatable either. As I said before, he's roughly an average defender and average hitter. Useful because of his versility but hard to see much upside. Maybe he benefits a ton because of the Green Monster though.

Glevin - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 05:38 PM EST (#475273) #

The Jays handling of Santander's injuries has been horrendous from the start. Pushed him to play through injuries when he was struggling and clearly hurt, brought him back when he was still hurt, and waited too long for him to have necessary surgery. I think this means Jimenez pretty likely to make team but also Schreck with a shot. Lineup definitely lacking power without him though.

greenfrog - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 06:03 PM EST (#475274) #

The Santander news hurts, but the team does have some OF depth in Varsho, Barger, Lukes, Schneider, Straw, Schreck. And at least the team won't spend a couple of months playing Santander at well below 100% again.

I wish the Blue Jays had added Tucker or Bellinger or Donovan this offseason, though.

greenfrog - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 06:17 PM EST (#475275) #

Someone on SOSH was speculating that Durbin, who is 5'7", might benefit from the new ABS system, as he has a relatively small strike zone that pitchers will have to accurately hit without the benefit of generous edge calls.

They also thought that the Red Sox might be stockpiling pitchers with excellent control like Gray and Suarez, who may fare better than other pitchers under the new system.

Glevin - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 06:21 PM EST (#475276) #

I do think Jays probably should add another hitter now. They probably need to treat Santander as mostly a sunk cost. I really don't want to see Lukes as an everyday player but I think that's probably what Jays will do. He's capable of covering for a while but league average offense at LF isn't great. Before this injury, didn't make much sense to add someone who wasn't elite but I think now it does. Someone like Alec Burleson who kills righties might make sense.

uglyone - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 06:25 PM EST (#475277) #

inexcusable that he's going for surgery now tbh.

massive screwup by somebody.

uglyone - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 06:29 PM EST (#475278) #

though tbh this injury has as much chance of helping the team as hurting the team.

Now Lukes and Schneider get to play more with likely similar hitting results and better fielding, while now we don't have to risk losing Jimenez either.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 06:44 PM EST (#475279) #

So I guess we're looking at:

DH Springer
LF Lukes (Schneider vs LHP)
1B Vladdy
RF Barger
CA Kirk
CF Varsho
3B Okamoto
2B Clement
SS Gimenez (Jimenez vs LHP)

The bright spot is Jimenez has a spot on the bench. I think he has a chance to be a solid player, and the Jays need to hold on to whatever infield depth they have. Other than that, it's a blow. There was no guarantee Santander was going to have a bounce back season, but the Jays needed one from him. Tough break. Now they need to add a bat at a time where a meaningful one probably isn't available.

Glevin - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 06:48 PM EST (#475280) #

Schneider and Lukes don't make a good platoon though. Lukes had a 104 WRC+ vs RHP and Davis had a 106 vs LHP. I'd rather have Schneider out there versus RHP than Lukes against most (but not all) guys.

uglyone - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 07:55 PM EST (#475284) #

that's only because neither of them actually NEED a platoon.

but Gimenez does.

Glevin - Tuesday, February 10 2026 @ 09:56 PM EST (#475291) #

They don't need a platoon but it's worse for the team. Not needing a platoon is great for a starter because you can play against anyone but if you are a 105 WRC+ corner OF, having like 125/85 WRC+ splits is way more valuable than being straight 100. Burleson and Hayes had WRC+ of 124 and 105 and Schneider and Lukes had 127 and 103 but the latter are probably giving you around 105-110 WRC+ in a platoon and the former giving you 135-140. It's like the difference between the offensive output of Kyle Tucker and Mike Yastremski. Schneider, the manager, loves playing platoons but the roster doesn't really have strong platoon guys except Clement and Gimenez.

TamRa - Thursday, February 12 2026 @ 10:45 PM EST (#475324) #

RE JoJo rumors: why, when you could just sign Columbe?

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