Agree with Moe

This is the type of deal JP would never make - Selling high on Gonzo & Collins, Buying low on Escobar &

Reyes and trusting your scouts did their job - It's a gamble I like.

Not sure I like this trade. What did the Jays gain? A ? at SS for the next few years. I guess that is what we already had, but Gonzalez was having a good year, Escobar is not.

The Jays are in need of bullpen stability and it would have been interesting to see how Collins would have faired. His K/9 #'s are eye popping. Pastornicky was a average prospect, though I recall someone stating that JP mentioned him specifically on a radio interview as the Jays future SS? Collins was a well documented JP sign as well.

The Braves Blog Capital Avenue Club discussed trading Escobar a couple of weeks ago:

Some people in the organization wish he was a bit less flashy. OK, the same is probably true for someone in every organization. It isn’t a good enough reason to trade a player. Or even exert psychic energy being infuriated, in my opinion.

Trading a player out of frustration is likely a bad baseball move and almost certainly a bad business move. Things like Kelly Johnson getting away for nothing happen when frustration enters the picture. Letting frustration influence your decisions is a mistake. Rational and thorough examination is necessary for every business decision.

I don't think it's a rumour, Mike.  Bastian has confirmed it via twitter and is preparing his official site piece as we speak.

I think this is all about turning around Escobar and flipping him when Heche is ready.  I don't think it's as great a deal as teams are making it out to be, but if Escobar returns to a .800 OPS slick-fielding shortstop by this time next year, his value goes way up.

I don't think Escobar and Hechavarria fill the same role for the next three years at all.

Escobar is a SS who has been a very good player 3 of his 4 years in the majors.  Hechavarria is a 21 year old who isn't hitting much in his first year of pro ball. 
I see thos move as vastly improving the Jays SS situation for 2011 and 2012.  After that we can see where Justin Jackson and Hechavarria are.

Mike, that's ridiculous. You're going to assume every trade the Braves make is to their benefit because of a previous regime? How about when they gave up Elvis Andrus (made redundant by Escobar himself), Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for 1.5 years of Mark Teixeira, which turned into only 1 season and Steve Marek?

Escobar and Hechevarria do not fill the same niche over the next 3 years, unless you continue to take the view that the Jays can't compete until 2013, which we've heard you say more than once. Escobar is a fantastic defensive SS who is putting up a .334 OBP in a down year with the sort of K zone control everyone here loves, a perfect #2 hitter. Hechevarria is a kid who still needs A LOT of polish before he can be considered a MLB regular. Their timelines don't conflict, and I'd venture further to say that come summer 2012 if Hechevarria is ready having a Cuban SS around might help the transition to the bigs. Escobar has a .270 BABIP this year which was probably over .320 entering the season, and if you add 50 points to his slash stats you get .288/.384/.334 - not unreasonable considering his LD% is consistent with where it should be.

If the Blue Jays MI situation was very good prior to the trade, it just got a heck of a lot better, especially in light of Doug Davis' tempered enthusiasm towards Pastornicky in the interview posted here last night.

I hope the rumour is more than just that.

He is 27 and should be entering his best years of his career, and we control for three years after this one, at which time Hech might be ready to take over.

I think that team control over Heche and Escobar ends at the same time.  I thought it was a term in Heche's contract that he becomes a FA at the end of it - yes, no?

Just read that Escobar doesn't become a FA until after the 2013 season - love this deal even more

Great for our pitching staff & a potential lead-off hitter who has a good OBP(prior yrs.)

Trade is posted at mlb.com.

Even with a career type year for Alex Gonzalez and struggles for Yunel Escobar, kind of interesting to look at the on-base percentages.

2010 - 0.296 vs. 0.334

Career - 0.294 vs 0.368

Shi Davidi also tweeted that Escobar has 20+ home run potential - reasonable when you consider he hit 14 last year.

Here's a prediction nobody on BB will agree with - Jo Jo Reyes will have a more successful ML career

than Tim Collins.

Heche is on the 40 men roster, meaning he can't stay in the minors for years. But once his is called up, he is still under control for 6 years.

There has been suggestions/reports that Heche has several clauses in his contract that insures he is promoted regularly and perhaps granted full free agency after the four year term.

It is a sell high, buy low. 

Gonzo is not in the future plans.  In fact, if we look at past logs, people were outraged they they signed him. 

The prospects have potential, but are not "key" players in the Jays future.

This is high risk, but could really pay off.

Best scenario - he makes his projection of 20HR+ with good defense.  We are pretty solid in MI for a couple years.

Worst Scenario - He continues to bust.  We lost Gonzo for 1.5 years and a couple marginal prospects.  Gonzo might be hitting well this year, but his career stats show that we are not going to miss much.

Hechavarria is on his first option out of 3 which would mean he would have to be on the 25 man roster by 2013 I believe.

I'm sad that Collins has been traded.  Couldn't they have sent them Magnusson instead?  (AA:Didn't you hear that short people have no reason to live?  I'm sure you'd rather have the tall guy!)

Worst Scenario - He continues to bust. 

And by bust Lyle means getting on base at a solid rate while providing exceptional defense for the young SP staff.

I personally dislike the trade quite a bit. 1.5 years of Gonzalez for 2.5 of Escobar. Both pretty good fielders, Gonzo looks like a better hitter (as sad as that sounds).  The Jays had a reasonable option on Gonzo and would have gotten a supplemental 1st rounder even if they let him go. Now they gave up two B-level prospects to get a worse hitter with a .291 wOBA (right now) who is already 27 and supposedly in his prime. Reyes has pretty much shown nothing over parts of four seasons and has little value and no options left for next year. With limited power and no speed, his offensive value is tied almost entirely in his ability to hit for average, which he has not shown the ability to do on a consistent basis.

Worrying about this trade because of its implications on a player who is very raw, struggled heavily in Dunedin, and needs a ton of development is silly. How about 2 more choices:

- move Hill to 3B, as has long been speculated.

- move Hechevarria to an OF spot vacated by Lewis' departure.

 Recent "forced" trades of Glaus, Rolen, and Halladay resulted in pretty fair value coming back for the Blue Jays.

But forced trades of very valuable players in mid-career do not usually rsult in fair value coming back.

I think if Escobar rebounds & Hech is ready, there will be a long line waiting to bid - I have absolutely

no worries regarding that situation 

Ah excellent, I can partake then.  I have a bottle of single malt 12 year Glenfiddich somewhere around here.

I'll gladly drink to The Departed Tim any time.

In terms of "Trade Theory", this trade works well on 2 fronts:

1. Buying Low, Selling High
2. Trading from positions of strength (young pitching, young SS prospects), to fill a position of weakness (MLB-ready SS).

So on those fronts, the deal is probably a good one.

Escobar is one of the more talented young-ish SS in the game, and if this year is just an abberration, then the Jays come out looking real good in this one, with a young-ish two-way top-of-the-order SS for years to come. But if this year isn't just an abberration, and the rumours of his attitude problems are true and relevant, than we might have just given up two promising prospects for nothing.

Tough one for me to call - I love Collins and Pastornicky, and think they are two of the brighter prospects in the system, both challenging to be in our suddenly impressive top-10 prospect rankings. Still, Collins is just a reliever prospect, and Pastornicky is somewhat redundant with Hech/Goins/Jackson/Pierre in there (even if he was arguably the best of all of them), so we can't cry too much about losing them. That doesn't change the fact that I love both these kids and think that both have an excellent chance at being quality MLBers.

"The Braves have a terrific record at evaluating their own highly-regarded position players." 

I think the Braves have traded away many top-quality youngsters over the last few years, for questionable return. I hardly think their evaluations of their own talent has been flawless.

"I also do not understand the impetus for this trade.  Escobar and Hecchevarria fill the same niche over the next 3 years,"

Whoa, that's not true. Escobar fills the "Quality MLB SS" niche for the next 3 years, while Hech fills the "Decent AA/AAA/MLB-backup" niche for the next 3 years.

Those are vastly different niches.

I agree with  the majority.  Escobar's "bad" year is only half way over and you would expect him to improve to closer to his norms.  Gonzalez is having the career season by a mile (at least in boxcars) and you would expect he will return to lower numbers.  Plus he usually gets hurt.

I expect that a trade of Hill or Lind would be ill advised right now as they they would be expected to return to better numbers at some point.  Escobar will too.

Even at this point, Escobar's OBP is quite a bit better than Gonzo's.

If I am going to the Series this year I would want Gonzo.  But looking forward the Jays are likely to be breaking in a catcher or two, a first baseman among other young players.  Escobar being a "space cadet" is a little more acceptable in this context.

In looking at Jo-Jo's numbers.  He looks like a Purcey clone but with a cooler name.  Good stuff, no idea where it is going.

Sad to see Pastonicky go.  He was one of the guys I was keeping an eye on.

I look forward to seeing what AA can turn Buck and a few relivers into.

• How happy is Escobar about the trade? Is he going to sulk, or is he going to work to prove the Braves wrong?
• Cito Gaston has a track record of achieving success with Latin-born players that other managers had trouble working with (see "Bell, G.")
• Escobar's OBP is better than Gonzo's.
• Escobar is capable of hitting for more power than he is at the moment, and the Toronto environment is the perfect place to bring it out. Gonzo's wondrous totals are affected somewhat by his playing here.
• On the other hand: if Gonzo has made an adjustment, and is hitting for more power as a consequence, the National League won't have figured that out yet.

We just happened upon the perfect storm of A-Gonz having a career year while Escobar has a down one.  That's the only reason that this deal has ANY chance of happening. 

We threw in 2 B- prospects to get this done.  Sure one of them was the unofficial BB mascot, but still 2 B- prospects!

This is FANTASTIC, absolutely fantastic.  No need to worry about clearing logjams that are 3 years away from happening, just savour the fact that we have a .360 OBP guy who doesn't play 1B. 

Incidentally people are forgetting Dickie Thon on their lists of SS prospects.

Ignoring the minor leaguers in the deal, who in these parts would have approved a Gonzalez for Escobar swap on April 1? Absolutely everybody, I'm thinking.

Since then:
* Escobar, at age 27, has had 260 crummy ABs after 1300 really good ones
* Gonzalez, at age 33, has had 320 really good ABs (for a SS) after 4400 at an OPS+ level of below 80

The Braves are presumably gambling on Gonzalez staying in his divinely inspired groove and overperforming his way into the post-season.

Or they know about a serious condition that has befallen Escobar that explains his poor first half, that they feel is not addressable and that they are not divulging.

Considering only the principals in the deal, I can't see not taking the risk that Escobar bounces back. The upside potential of a shortstop who can legitimately bat leadoff outweighs the downside risk that he underperforms Gonzalez for the next 1.5 years. But so what if the risk fails? Were the Jays planning any ticker tape parades in that timeframe?

 Add me to the list of people seeing this as selling high, buying low.

I'd have to disagree.

Pastornicky's Glove + OBP + Speed combo is the best of the bunch, IMO.

Hech is the only one that I think could be rated higher than him at this point, and even that's debatable.

But I don't think Pastornicky was so much better than the others that it's a killer to lose him.

Funny how SS has become an organizational strength in the span of like 15 months. 

Re: the Braves knowing about something (injury?) causing his play this season.

I'm wondering if he's playing hurt and the Braves DID tell the Jays. With only 12 Extra base hits (after 42 last season) it certainly seems that something's sapping his power.

Perhaps the Braves just decided they can't afford to wait until next season when he's healthy.  The Jays, on the other hand, have no race to worry about and can wait it out.

Huh, all I've heard on Pastornicky is that his glove is a definite plus at SS.

If he can't field the SS spot at the MLB level, then his value as a prospect definitely tumbles a huge amount.

Technically you don't have to be in the majors to be a very valuable chip.  But I agree, I doubt Pastornicky is more valuable than Escobar in 2 years.

Come on.  Gonzo, Collins,etc were not key peices of any future puzzle.  They could be small parts, but not key peices.  Escobar could be.  If you get a chance to get your hands on a player like this, you do it.

Don't forget Gonzo, Gregg, Buck, and Bautista were all considered horrible signings in spring signing.  If he can parlay them all into Escobars, we are doing fairly well.

Also, don't let the first half fool you.  The team is not that good and probably won't be next year either.  But if Escobar, Arrencbia, Wallace, Hech, and Drabek are who we think they are, 2012 could be a very interesting year.

Maybe AA could parlay Overbay, Gregg, Buck, Fasor,Downs, and Bautista into a future closer, 3bagger(maybe Hill goes there) and an outfielder. 

Also, we have a glut of quality starters.  If Drabek is ready for next year, maybe we need to think about including one of the current starters in the package.

2012 team -

1st - Wallace

2nd - Hech or one of those young shortstops....

SS - Escobar

3rd - Hill?

DH - Lind

OF - Wells, Snider and ?

C - JPA + ?

Bench - Players like McCoy,etc

Starters - Marcum, Romero, Drabek, Rzep and some other minor league stud

Closer - ?

Pen - Lots to chose from.

Pretty good team in my estimation....

As for the assertion that Pastornicky is a #15-20 prospect, hmm.  That would be one helluva farm system, if it were true.  The only real knock on him prior to this year was his total absence of HR power.  That has been answered.  People don't appreciate how rare it is to have a player with a broad base of skills who succeeds in the FSL at age 20.  It doesn't look to me like there are any others than Pastornicky this year. 

I think I'd have pegged both Pastornicky and Collins in the #11-15 range (and yes, it IS starting to look like one helluva farm system right now).

With a top-5 of (no order): Drabek, D'Arnaud, Wallace, Jenkins, McGuire; and a 5-10 of (no order): Hech, JPA, Stewart, Mills, Wojciechowski;...

....I'd probably have Collins and Pastornicky grouped in with Marisnick, Perez, and Alvarez as the 11-15 guys....although really, I could see some people personally preferring any (or all) of these 5 to some of the guys I listed in the top-10.   Then again, there's guys like Sanchez, Emaus, Thames, Jiminez that some might like in the top-10 to 15 as well.

"Borderline top-10" is probably the best description for both, IMO. (and again, yeah, it's starting to look like one helluva farm system).

As for the assertion that Pastornicky is a #15-20 prospect, hmm. That would be one helluva farm system, if it were true.

It's funny, it's actually Collins I feel I shorted a bit by saying he was #15-20 as opposed to Pastornicky. I mean, I see why you like him; as you said, he has displayed a breadth of skills at 20 in high-A. When I re-read some of the lines from the Doug Davis interview (which echoed previous comments by people inside and outside of the organization), though, I get the impression that the organization didn't see as much projection as his age-vs-level would normally imply. The stats and scouting profiles combine to read to me like someone who probably projects to be a utility infielder or a bit more. Looking at the other prospects in the organization, I still feel comfortable saying I see him as a #15-20 prospect. Keep in mind, however, that prospect-ranking can be a matter of taste (upside vs probability), and that I don't regard labeling him a 15-20 as pejorative.

Everytime a Jays transaction happens, I hate being shut out of battersbox for hours. Are others unable to connect to the site because there are too many people on it?

Does anyone have the links to previous Jays' prospect rankings?

Last, I think this is a definite win-win trade. I think Atlanta has some options as they can keep Gonzalez for another year on the cheap or take the picks. I think the Jays were extremely fortunate to get 2.5 excellent seasons from Scutaro and Gonzalez. I think they have something special (but it'll be next year till he shines).

This time last year ... MLBTR ... http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta_braves/page/34/ 

       ..."    By Mike Axisa [July 16, 2009 at 9:18pm CST]

A gaggle of links for your Thursday evening reading pleasure...

• In response to someone mentioning the Yunel Escobar-Matt Holliday rumors, MLB.com's Mark Bowman says "There is zero truth to those Escobar rumors. The Braves have NO and I repeat no intention to move him. Believe me, if they move him, it will simply be a deal that they simply can't refuse and that wouldn't include anything involving Holliday."      "...

   I guess alot can happen in a year !!!

Like many others I am sad to see Collins and Pastornicky go but I fully understand the trade and completely support it. The Jays obviously feel that there are things about both Escobar and Reyes that can be corrected and I would imagine that trades like this will become the norm for the organization. This is after all one of the reasons why they placed such an emphasis on the structure and expansion of their scouting staff this past season. In fact, while JP can be unfairly castigated at times, I never felt comfortable with what appeared to be (at least in my estimation) a lack of a discernable and cohesive plan during his tenure. Anthopoulos on the other hand, has demonstrated in his first season not only a well thought out plan but that he is proactive in executing it. Case in point:

• Expanded efforts (and $) in International scouting leading to more significant international signings - (Hechavarria, Cardonis, Cenas)
• Expanded pro-scouting to evaluate MLB free agent and trade opportunities – (Morrow, Gonzalez, Buck, Lewis, Gregg, Escobar)
• Expanded amateur scouting to allow for better evaluations/decisions on prospects both currently in the system and those in other systems/undrafted (2010 draft class, the Halladay bounty, Wallace vs. Taylor)

It will be years before it can be determined if Anthopoulos is successful, but if he isn’t it obviously won’t be because of a lack of direction or a fear of execution. Count me one of the impressed. FWIW, here is what Anthopoulos had to say about the trade in an article on TSN.ca:

 "We think there could be some mechanical things that can be addressed in his swing, and I think he may need a fresh start and a new organization and a city like Toronto that embraces Latin players," said Anthopoulos. "The biggest concern for us was the lack of power and we really had our scouts focus on batting practice and make sure the raw power was there and we were pretty diligent about examining his health. The raw power is still there, and we think it's just a matter of making some tweaks."

In the article Anthopoulos indicates that in addition to his scouts he relied heavily on Jose Bautista's knowlegde of Escobar to assess the reported character issues and will seemingly look to Bautista to help Escobar integrate into the organization. His comments were intereting in that they seem to indicate the Jays have decided to hold onto Bautista for the foreseeable future. Perhaps they believe his performance over the last 400+ ABs is his new talent level.

Here's a prediction nobody on BB will agree with - Jo Jo Reyes will have a more successful ML career than Tim Collins.

You're wrong!

'Cause I agree.

Reyes MiLB #'s: 119G, 112GS, 579IP(261IP at AA &AAA), 8.2H/9, 0.7HR/9, 3.3BB/9, 8.4K/9

Collins MiLB #'s:130G, 0GS, 194IP(55IP at AA), 5.9H/9, 0.5HR/9, 3.9BB/9, 13.6K/9

Both throw left handed, Collins is 5 year younger but he's pitched exclusively as a reliever. This is a large gulf that hasn't really been looked at by most Collins fanboys. Steve Treder examined this on THT a few years ago and found that the gap between the performance of a pitcher who has both started and relieved in the major leagues shows approximately 10% improvement on all rate stats and their ERA from when they started to when they relieved.

Reyes rates:  8.2H/9, 0.7HR/9, 3.3BB/9, 8.4K/9

Collins rates equalized: 6.5H/9, 0.5HR/9, 4.3BB/9, 12.2K/9

The numbers still favour Collins by a fair margin, but they are closer and Reyes has pitched a greater number of his innings at AA & AAA, where as Collins has only thrown 55 of his 194 career innings at AA.

Guys:

Our server crashed last night so you can see there were no postings from around 6pm until 10:30pm.  Bad timing, I know.

Previously we have had issues with traffic hitting up against our server capacity generating "too many connections" type messages.  Our technical guru, Joe, has been tweaking our database to try and avoid those errors and it seemed to work well yesterday until the server crash.  Our traffic spikes when there is a major event such as yesterdays trade and through the afternoon yesterday our server worked fine and people were able to get on and post their opinions.

So we will keep our fingers crossed that we avoid server crashes for a while.

You can find old prospect rankings by clicking on the minor league update link on the lower left pane and then working your way back through the dates.  Here is a link to last years top thirty. 

Jeff Blair doesn't like the deal.

Blair talked with Keith Law about the deal last night.  Law didn't like it.  Law feels that Escobar is going backwards, he is getting heavier, not running as much, losing a bit defensively, and generally headed in the wrong direction.  He also felt the Jays did not get Escobar at a bargain price.

I'm right there with Mr. Law.

I like AA's other moves, and this is the first one I would really disagree with do to the "sleeper" values for Collins and Pastornicky. They don't have high ceilings but they should be useful MLB players.

Seriously, what is Law's definition of a bargain price?  We gave up someone off the scrap heap and 2 B- prospects.  That is essentially nothing.  Jo Jo Reyes isn't that far removed from being considered a B+ prospect himself.

I know why the Braves wanted to make the deal (win-now) but can't Law recognize a down year?  With his thinking we could have added David Wright, Rafael Furcal, Alex Rios, Tim Hudson, Vladdy, Konerko, Chris Young, and Aubrey Huff (to name a few) to our team this past offseason.  You just don't give up on Talent THIS quickly.

Law feels that Escobar is going backwards

This hasn't been a year-over-year demise. Escobar has had a poor half-season, that's all. He had a 116 OPS+ last year!

Ricciardi commented on the upside of Pastornicky and Collins. But wouldn't he? Is he not suffering from some of the same sort of bias that is perhaps taking place at this site, where those who follow the minor leaguers closely feel a connection to them and are perhaps overvaluing them due to this bias?

I would really disagree with do to the "sleeper" values for Collins and Pastornicky. They don't have high ceilings but they should be useful MLB players.

Isn't this damning with feint praise? While useful major league players are not exactly falling from trees, they are not the types of players who will propel this organization to loftier heights. Turning around, and reaping some high ceiling benefits, of a shortstop who has recorded OPS+s of 118, 103 and 116 before, apparently, becoming a pariah of dimensions incalculable would seem like a worthwhile gamble.

"They don't have high ceilings but they should be useful MLB players."

That and a bag of baseballs gets the Jays an annual membership to 4th place in the AL East, with Baltimore knocking on the door in a couple of years as well. Don't get me wrong, I really, REALLY like Collins and Pastornicky but this is a trade the Jays have to make when the opportunity arises. If the farm system cannot withstand losing 2 potentially useful MLB players then the Jays are in bigger trouble than I thought. This team needs high end talent to compete in this division, plain and simple. Bagwell for Anderson this is not.

As for the references to the declining skill set of Escobar, I have to wonder how many times Law has actually seen Escobar over the last 3+ seasons when drawing that conclusion? I doubt it would be nearly as often as the Jays scouts and if the team isn't going to trust their scouts, why bother emphasizing the expanded scouting in the first place. Oh, and Escobar's WAR totals for his first 4 seasons in the majors: 2.4, 3.3, 4.3, 1.0, quite the steady decline. Obviously one of these things is not like the other (sorry Sesame Street) so we are to believe that this last 300 ABs, at 27 years of age, is Escobar's new skill set or just a bad first half being experienced by a still young and talented player? 

One of the biggest issues a GM has to face is falling in love with your own prospects.  I think that applies to me too, and probably many others here at Batters Box.  I look at the Escobar for Gonzalez swap and I say, OK, that's a reasonable deal.  But when Collins and Pastornicky are thrown in you hate to lose the prospects.

But prospects have a 50% failure rate, at least, so probably one of Collins or Pastornicky will fail.  For this deal to really hurt Collins needs to turn into a closer and Pastornicky to an everyday major league player.  If Timmy is just another reliever, those guys are a dime a dozen, and if Pastornicky is a utility guy, the same comment applies.

So I wince when I look at this deal but rational thought says don't overvalue or fall in love with the prospects.  So I am OK with this deal based on my trust in the Blue Jays scouting system.

I just hope I don't lose that trust.

"They don't have high ceilings but they should be useful MLB players."

That statement right there is why I like AA and think he is much better than Ricciardi.

Useful MLB players do not win in the AL East. The Jays need front-end talent. From 2007-09, Escobar hit .301/.375/.426 in 1546 plate appearances. That is almost identical to what he did in his minor league career (.297/.370/.414). He can draw walks, he can hit for average, he has decent pop, and he can defend a critical position. He is an all-star calibre player at a position this team has sucked at for over a decade. And people are crying over losing a reliever, a single-A SS with a .695 career minor league OPS, and an aging vet?

Look, Collins might turn into a good reliever/closer. Pastornicky might turn into a good SS/2B. Ultimately, who cares? Neither one has the upside that Escobar does. People were down on Rios last season for being lazy, hitting poorly, etc. Change of scenary, and bam, he is right back to being the old Rios. Escobar might be in the same mold.

It is refreshing to have AA as GM. Even if this risk fails, it was a calculated risk. Buying low on a damn good player at a critical position, and not overvaluing prospects with questionable ceilings.

• Are the Braves wrong about Escobar?
• If the Braves are right, can the Jays fix it?
  

Blair's piece just sounded like a guy who didn't like the trade.  There was a lot of garbage that he had to really reach for.  "ie.  Toronto is a train wreck of a sports city". 

Bottom line:  Escobar has the highest ceiling.  That is what we are after right now.  Acquiring quality assets that can turn into something is AA's MO.  Kind of like the Chicago Blackhawks.  If you have lots of quality peices, putting a complete puzzle together is easier.

Law was on the FAN last night with Blair and he didn't make a lot of sense.  He said that Escobar was in decline since his MLB debut which is not true.  He acknowledged that Escobar would probably bounce back but that he had make-up issues and losing athleticism.  On the other hand, Collins might be in the majors later this year.  He didn't really care for Pastornicky whom he categorized as a the "scrappy white guy".  He said on the scouting scale he was a "35".  A David Eckstein type and it wasn't meant as a compliment.  I think he has more athleticism than Law gives him credit for.  Again, if he thinks Escobasr will bounce back and doesn't like Pastornicky then his views don't make much sense.

Bit of topic - but it appears BA thinks the Jays have a top 10 organization in terms of prospects.  From Sunday:

Haven't broken them all down, but feels like yes. @DK_I_AM: jays a top 10 system next season?

http://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/18313272417

Why are people so worked up about trading away an over-his-head shortstop, a prospect who is being projected to be a utility player with a below-average bat, and an intreguing potential reliever for a 27-year old shortstop who is struggling but has shown he can hit? So what if you block Hech for now? You can always trade an asset later (or move someone to third base ala Jhonny Peralta).

"I didn't complain about gonzo but i was very much of the opinion that he - and buck - were just the kind of crap that you sign to patch over until the good times get here."

I understood anyone who wasn't excited by the Gonzo/Buck signings, but I always had a hard time understanding anyone who thought they were "crap", and who thought they wouldn't be at least average-ish players for their positions.

"That lineup is probably be what Gaston will do, regardless of how much sense it makes."

Given Cito's prediliction for L/R/L/R lineups, I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see Cito swap Escobar and lewis at the top of your order there, going with:

1) SS Escobar RH, 2) LF Lewis LH, 3) 3B Bautista RH, 4) CF Wells RH, 5) DH Lind LH, 6) 2B Hill RH, 7) 1B Overbay LH, 8) C Buck RH, 9) RF Snider LH

I also think, though, that Cito will likely be moving Snider quickly up the order this time, as long as he comes back hitting like he did when he left. I know some people think that Cito irrationally hates Snider and will keep him down at the bottom of the order no matter what, but I don't think that's the case.

On a personal preference, I wouldn't mind us experimenting with Snider at 1B in the short term, with JBau in RF and EE at 3B, with Overbay on the bench even now.....and even if (when) Overbay is traded, I wouldn't mind seeing that, and wait on Wallace until he's destroying AAA again.

"This hasn't been a year-over-year demise. Escobar has had a poor half-season, that's all. He had a 116 OPS+ last year!"

Agreed 100% - it's ridiculous to suggest that Escobar is on some sort of "steady decline".

Escobar was the Braves' TEAM MVP last year, at age 26. Not only was he voted the teams MVP, but Bobby Cox flat out said he was their MVP that year prior to the vote.

Hell, he even got NL MVP votes last year (6.0 MVP vote points last year).

"His comments were intereting in that they seem to indicate the Jays have decided to hold onto Bautista for the foreseeable future. Perhaps they believe his performance over the last 400+ ABs is his new talent level."

I think I like this - while I am eager to see AA trade high on Buck, Gregg, and Camp, and to move Downs, Overbay, Frasor and Tallet - I think Bautista might be a different case, and that he might have legitimately reached a new talent level .

Basically a tick better than 20 year old Tyler Pastornicky with much less speed.

A tick better?  That's a big tick.  Do you mean that given another seven years of development, Pastornicky should be a tick worse than what Escobar is now?  Those seven years are worth an awful lot on the trade market.

The problem with just looking at the stats is that statistically speaking, the trade is pretty dumb for Atlanta - even in a down year, Escobar is an okay player, and he has the potential to be a lot better.

Actually, it's pretty easy to see exactly what Atlanta is doing here. They have a 4g lead in the NL East right now, and a lineup that gets on base very well (1/16 in NL) but lacks in the power department (13/16 in NL). When you have a SS who is causing problems in the clubhouse and can pick up a veteran SS having a career season who fits your team needs perfectly, along with 2 decent prospects, why hesitate? Furthermore, Gonzalez's salary is set for next year, which makes your planning easier, and it's quite likely that Escobar will cost a bit more in Arb1 next year. Atlanta has depth at SS in their system, and sees an opportunity to improve themselves this year as Philadelphia lags behind with injuries without really sacrificing much of their future, other than the difference between Escobar and Gonzalez in 2011 (and SS for 2012 if they don't find anybody else by then and their wealth of prospects don't pan out). It's easy for me to see how this trade makes perfect sense for both sides, considering how untenable a situation all the Braves writers make the Braves-Escobar relationship out to be.

On a personal preference, I wouldn't mind us experimenting with Snider at 1B in the short term, with JBau in RF and EE at 3B, with Overbay on the bench even now.

Terrible idea. Snider is an OF and needs the work out there, and Overbay has been the team's best hitter save for JoBau over the last 2 months while providing his usual solid defense. Why would you hinder the development of the team's best prospect and depress the trade value of Overbay just to get E5 more ABs?!

When you have a SS who is causing problems in the clubhouse and can pick up a veteran SS having a career season who fits your team needs perfectly, along with 2 decent prospects, why hesitate?

Why hesitate to trade your Team MVP from last season, a 27 year old slick fielding SS?

Why hesitate to trade one of the best SS in baseball for a 33 year who's had a clear outlier few months?

Do I even need to answer?

Atlanta has depth at SS in their system,

No they don't. They did before they traded Andrus and Escobar for rentals, but they don't anymore.

Terrible idea. Snider is an OF and needs the work out there, and Overbay has been the team's best hitter save for JoBau over the last 2 months while providing his usual solid defense. Why would you hinder the development of the team's best prospect and depress the trade value of Overbay just to get E5 more ABs?!

1. There is no hindering Snider's development by giving him experience at a new position.
2. Overbay has no trade value worth worrying about.
3. Overbay can't hit lefties, period. And even with his recent better performance is no clear upgrade on EE.
4. Overbay will be moved one way or another, and Wallace is arguably not quite ready to come up.

If Yunel recovers to where he was prior to 2010, he ends up as a good middle infielder somewhere between Eckstein and Pedroia, but at arb prices.  The chances of that happening are probably much more than 25%, but not necessarily over 50%. 

If Yunel recovers to where he was prior to a bad couple of months this year, then he ends up as much more than a "good middle infielder" - he ends up as one of the top-5 SS in baseball.

And the chances of him recovering to his normal levels are, of course, pretty dang high - much, much higher than the chances of both Collins and Pastornicky turning into quality MLB regulars.

Yunel was a 3.5-4.5 WAR player in the weaker league, prior to 2010.  That's noticeably less than Marco Scutaro, 2008-09, in the AL East, for instance. 

Well, wait a sec - that's not true.

Yunel and Scoots tied at 4.3 WAR last year. They both tied for 5th in MLB behind Jeter, Hanley, Tulo, and Bartlett. Of course, Scutaro had 80 more plate appearances than Yunel, so that gave him a pretty big advantage.

If we adjust WAR to plate appearances (let's say per-700pa), these are the SS last year:

1. Hanley: 7.7
2. Jeter: 7.2
3. Tulo: 6.5
4. Bartlett: 5.9
5. Escobar: 5.0
6. Scutaro: 4.4
7. Aybar: 4.3
8. Andurs: 4.0

And of course, Scutaro was pretty dang good last year, earning himself a 3yr contract at $6+ mil per year out of that one good season. If he could have been at all counted on to continue that level of performance, he would have received much more than even that.

Yunel was a 3.5-4.5 WAR player in the weaker league, prior to 2010.  That's noticeably less than Marco Scutaro, 2008-09, in the AL East, for instance.  Of course, Yunel is young and might be better in the AL East in 2011 than he was in 2008-09, but that seems to me to be somewhat less probable than Tim Collins being an effective ace reliever.

Well Scutaro was a great player the last two years so on the face of it this isn't a bad thing. Secondly, I don't really get where you are getting this from. Fangraphs has Yunel at 3.3 and 4.3 in 2008 and 2009 while Scutaro is at 3.1 and 4.3. Baseball Reference has Yunel at 2.9 and 5.5 (side note, I love that not everyone agree on WAR, really gives you confidence in the stat) and Scutaro at 4.1 and 5.5. To me that's essentially a wash, maybe a slight point for Scutaro, which Escobar's youth more than makes up for. Last year they were both top 6 shortstops to boot. We don't have Scutaro anymore, so I don't see what is so terrible about trading for his replacement who we will have for the next 3 years.

In addition, if we are going with WAR, top-10 relievers have WARs that generally slot in just over 2. Even if Collins becomes a star, the potential value of Escobar, as a 5 win shortstop, far surpasses this, especially given the lack of decent shortstops available and the difficulty that exists in acquiring them. Of the top 10 shortstops in baseball last year, 5 were with the teams tha drafted them (4 now without Yunel), 3 were traded in what were essentially blockbuster trades or close to it (Hanley, Andrus, Bartlett) and 2 were free agents (Scutaro, Furcal). You just can't get players as good as Escobar has been.

To me this trade is a big win for the Jays unless Pastornicky becomes a better player than Escobar is in 2010-2013. I don't think this is particularly likely, but even if it is it is worth the risk.  If Pastornicky becomes a 1.5-2 WAR player and Collins a 1 WAR reliever, those are useful things, but not nearly as useful as 3 years of a 4 WAR shortstop in the AL East for a team trying to compete, which is certainly a possibility for Escobar. (I really hate using WAR this way, but it simplifies things to be certain)

You have tried everything possible to fix your problems, so they are not fixable.

The other guys don't know what they are doing, we can do a better job fixing that guy.

I think with Rios the kick in the pants gave him some motivation to improve, let's hope the same applies with Escobar.

Fangraphs has the top shortstops in baseball (without league adjustment) by value in 2009 as Jeter, Hanley, Tulowitzki, Bartlett and Scutaro/Yunel.  In 2008, it was Hanley, Reyes, Rollins, Hardy, Peralta, Jeter, Cabrera, Yunel. 

And, as I kindly showed you, the only reason Scutaro was on par with Yunel in terms of WAR was that he received many more plate appearances. (about 10-15% more).

The only SS better than Yunel last year were Jeter, Hanley, Tulo, and Bartlett. And Bartlett was a fluke of epic proportions.

Going forward, the only SS that can be counted on to be better than  what Yunel has done over his career so far, are Hanley and Jeter and Tulo.....and Jeter is 36, so that might take him out of the running pretty soon.

Yunel was a very good player and improving player entering 2010, but not a great one.  It would be completely understandable for a team to not want to trade a very good shortstop entering his age 27 season.  It may be that Yunel's upside is closer to Dustin Pedroia, and that Pastornicky's is closer to David Eckstein, and that Yunel is much more likely to reach his. But, when you add in the monetary side, and Collins' chance of reaching his reasonable upside, and the fact that Gonzalez while unlikely to keep hitting the way he has been, still has considerable value especially at his contract price and the 2011 option, it's hard to make the case for the trade unless the team plans to greatly expand payroll in the next 3 years.  We'll see if they do. 

Well no, its not hard to make the case. Rob Neyer likes it for the Jays, as do two different writers at Fangraphs.

If the crux of the argument against the trade is that two prospects, ranked (pre 2010) 17th and 19th in the system by Baseball America, and 20th and unranked (both grade C) by John Sickels, was too high of a price to pay to get a potential all-star shortstop for the next (at least) 3 years then I don't even know what to say. Star players are so much more valuable than utility players, and star shortstops so exceptionally difficult to acquire that even the chance to get one is worth the risk. I made this point about 2009, but in 2010 of the top 15 shortstops in baseball who qualify for the batting title, 4 were free agents - Scutaro, Gonzalez, Jerry Hairston and Juan Uribe (throw in Furcal there too I suppose). There is almost no way to acquire good shortstops other than developing them or trading for them, and since Hanley was traded 5 years ago the only notable young shortstops to be traded have been Elvis Andrus (for Mark Fricking Teixeira) and Jason Bartlett, all of which makes this trade even more of a coup.

I might add that this deal is the flipside of the Rios' sale.  If your intention is to spend more money and to try to compete quickly, why would you have sold Rios at the low point? 

There is the "minor" issue of $64 milion dollars being owed to Rios, and $0 million dollars being owed to Escobar, that you might be overlooking.

Eckstein was a 2-3 WAR player, Anders.  Even those who don't have a high opinion of Pastornicky acknowledge that this is where he can reasonably end up. 

The difference between my saying 1.5-2 WAR and you saying 2-3 WAR is not of particular consequence, As it happens in the first 6 years of his career, according to Fangraphs, Eckstein averaged 2.3 WAR. As for the second point, yes, Pastornicky has a chance of being a reasonably effective player. He also has a chance of never having an at bat in the majors. I would lean towards the later, as I believe would most people objectively analyzing the situation. If you are of the opinion that the former is more likely there seems to be little point in arguing over something so speculative. I think tend to think that if Escobar turns out alright then Pastornicky is essentially irrelevant unless he becomes Michael Young, in any event.

If you believe that Tyler Pastornicky and Tim Collins are C prospects with a 5% chance of being significant major league players, then it is essentially a challenge trade.

Do you think they have greater than a 5-10% chance?  Look at historical top 10 lists - teams have maybe 2 or 3 prospects that become significant major league players.  Now that must drop for prospects in the 10-20 range. 

I'm going to try something here, and feel free to rip it apart.....but I'm going to look at career WAR, per-700pa.

1. FLA H.Ramirez (26): 6.1 (3126pa, 27.1war)
2. NYY D.Jeter (36): 4.8 (10213pa, 70.0war)
3. COL T.Tulowitzki (25): 4.7 (2104pa, 14.1war)
4. NYM J.Reyes (27): 4.3 (4000pa, 24.4war)
5. TOR Y.Escobar (27): 4.2 (1847pa, 11.1war) 
6. SEA J.J.Hardy (27): 3.9  (2467pa, 13.9war)
7. PHI J.Rollins (31): 3.8  (6651pa, 35.6war)
8. TB J.Bartlett (30): 3.8  (2550pa, 14.0war)
9. LAD R.Furcal (32): 3.6  (6139pa, 31.8war)
10. TEX E.Andrus (21): 3.6  (923pa, 4.8war)
11. SF E.Renteria (34): 3.0  (8628pa, 37.1war)
12. CLE A.Cabrera (24): 2.7  (1334pa, 5.2war)
13. STL B.Ryan (28): 2.6  (1089pa, 4.1war)
14. CHC S.Castro (20): 2.5  (221pa, 0.8war)
15. CIN O.Cabrera (35): 2.4  (7618pa, 26.6war)
16. BOS M.Scutaro (34): 2.4 (3503pa, 12.1war)
17. LAA E.Aybar (26): 2.4 (1541pa, 5.3war)
18. CHX A.Ramirez (28): 2.4 (1432pa, 4.9war)
19. OAK C.Pennington (26): 2.3 (672pa, 2.2war)
20. SD J.Hairston (34): 2.1  (3935pa, 12.0war)
21. ARI S.Drew (27): 2.0 (2438pa, 7.0war)
22. WAS I.Desmond (24): 2.0  (383pa, 1.1war)
23. ATL A.Gonzalez (33): 1.7  (5124pa, 12.1war)
24. DET R.Santiago (30): 1.1  (1646pa, 2.6war)
25. MIL A.Escobar (23): 1.1  (450ab, 0.7war)
26. BAL C.Izturis (30): 1.0 (4091pa, 5.8war)
27. KCR Y.Betencourt (28): 0.5  (2787pa, 1.8war)
28. SEA J.Wilson (29): -0.4  (736pa, -0.4war)
29. PIT R.Cedeno (27): -0.5  (1610pa, -1.2war)
30. HOU T.Manzella (27): -3.3  (214pa, -1.0war)

2 comments:  Uglyone, you can't just prorate Escobar's PAs and then claim him to be more valuable than Scutaro.  Escobar's missing PAs had to be replaced by someone.  It's fair to say Escobar was better than Scutaro while he played.

Anders:  the difference in the two values for WAR comes because Fangraphs and BB-Ref use two different defensive metrics to compute WAR.

Anthopoulos managed to convert a free-agent scrap heap pickup from the offseason, a 5th round pick from 2008 and an undrafted free agent signing from 2007 into a guy that has been one of the top SS in baseball for three years.  A potential all-star calibre young SS under team control from age 27-30.  I couldn't be more pleased with this move. 

The Jays are not going to contend by sitting on their hands waiting for all of their C+ prospects to bust through.  Its just as easy for these young players to take several steps back as it is for them to take another five steps forward, and if that happens their value as trade pieces has disappeared.  Would anyone really be surprised if at this time next year, Collins was injured or being hit hard in Vegas and Pastornicky was posting a sub-.700 OPS in NH?  It is a risk, but a worthwhile risk and even if Escobar turns out to be washed up at age 27, what have the Jays really sacrificed?  Their 4th or 5th best SS prospect, an intriguing but unprojectable reliever and 70 games of Alex Gonzalez.  That is easily worth a very good shot at a top-10 SS.

Elvis Andrus (for Mark Fricking Teixeira)

Well, that's true -- sort of. The Teixeira deal is actually going to be seen as one of the great trade heists in baseball history before it's all over.

On July 31, 2007, Teixeira was traded by the Texas Rangers with Ron Mahay to the Atlanta Braves for Beau Jones (minors), Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Mahay was a throw-in. Jones has a chance to be a solid bench guy. So throw those two out of the equation.

 Andrus is already an All-Star and getting better. Feliz will either be a #1/#2 starter or a dominant closer, whichever the Rangers end up needing more. He's electric. Salty started the year as the team's starting catcher but has backpedaled, true; we'll see how long Bengie of the Molina Brothers can hold him off. Harrison is a fine, if injury-prone lefty who will be back in the Ranger rotation as soon as he can be.

It's not quite Robinson-for-Pappas level, but every "many prospects for one short-term star rental" trade ever made again will be measured against this one.

Most lefties don't even get their careers really going until they turn 29 ^^

Guys like Sabathia are the extreme exception.

Okay, I've found the Batters Box list of top prospects for 2004.  Of the entire list of top 10 prospects in 2004,  a total of 7 have reached the major leagues -- but that includes Purcey, Banks, McGowan and Chacin whose major-league stints have been sporadic or limited by injury.  Only 3 of the top 10 (Hill, League and Marcum) have established themselves as clear major-league regulars today.

Anyway, that's the top 10, but what about the mid-ranked prospects?  Those who were ranked 11th to 15th in 2004 were the following:  Adam Peterson, Vito Chiaravalloti, Raul Tablado, Robinson Diaz and Vince Perkins.  As you can see, there's a sharp drop in the success level below the top 10.  Of the entire list below the top 10, only Adam Lind has become a regular in the major leagues, unless I'm missing someone.

So, for mid-ranked prospects such as Collins and Pastornicky, the odds are a lot worse than one-in-five for reaching the majors (unless the 2004 list was abnormal in some way).

By the way:  Adam Lind, rather than being an encouraging example for Collins or Pastornicky, was actually a total fluke.  He was ranked 28th in the Jays system and he reached the majors.  The odds were very, very heavily stacked against him.   Marcum is not a comparable for Collins and Pastornicky either because he was 5th-ranked in the Jays system and therefore had much better odds of making it.

Of the prospects who were ranked 11th to 20th by Batters Box in 2004:  Robinson Diaz managed to play in 41 games for the Pirates last year as a backup catcher, but he doesn't seem to be playing anywhere this season.   Ryan Roberts finally reached the majors last year for Arizona at the age of 28 -- he got 351 plate appearances as a utility guy, posting an OPS of .783.  But he has only had 17 plate appearances this season, so I'm not sure if you can call him a regular major-leaguer.   The vast majority of these mid-ranked guys are like Peterson, Perkins, Thigpen, Davis Romero -- they never really made it.

For anyone who wants to read the brave words of praise for our mid-ranked prospects in 2004 (many of whom were wrongly projected as future major-leaguers), here is the link:

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040923034445999

Kelekin, did you bother to read what I wrote?  Or even to click on the link?  The BB rankings are published in October every year.  So the 2004 rankings were published in October 2004, after Lind had a full season at Auburn under his belt.  You should do a tiny amount of research before you accuse people of using drugs....

Your other posting, which is rather incoherent, appears to argue that rankings are "stupid" and therefore irrelevant.  Of course the future can't be predicted in precise percentages, but rankings do have some relevance.  Most of us would agree that Drabek is likely to have a stronger career than Collins, and that's reflected in the prospect rankings.  There's a consensus, across the board, that Collins and Pastornicky are lower-ranked than Drabek, Wallace, and other top-five prospects, and that's probably a rough indication of AA's thinking too. 

And in response to Mike Green -- thanks for the explanation, you've clarified that you would rank Collins and Pastornicky higher than the consensus of most rankings, and that nicely explains your critique of this trade.  As for me, I'm going to stick with the consensus on those two prospects, and based on history, I would argue that each of them has perhaps a 10 per cent chance of becoming a regular in the major leagues.  Not a high enough chance to warrant killing a trade for one of the top shortstops in the major leagues last year.

Think they were ready for a change?  From Buster Olney's tweet...

When Alex Gonzalez walked into the Atlanta clubhouse for the first time, the Braves' players gave him a standing ovation

For those posters that are attached to Blue Jays prospects like Collins & Pastornicky, I've  bad news as I expect

that AA will probably be trading away more of them -  Seems AA  has decided (correctly I believe) that the Jays

need elite young talent to compete in the AL east and not the average talent so many Jays prospects are likely

to be - So, I think that he will likely package some of those B&C type prospects with some veterans to acquire

high ceiling talent - secondly, when there is regime change, the new regime almost always is less enamoured

with the old regime prospects and are more willing to trade them (besides, does new regime want a team to

become winners using the old regime talent - unless who are supremely confident & have a long track record

like a Pat Gillick with Phila. the answer is usually no)

Just one more reason I can't understand us not trying him at 3B.  I'm not even sure he's a top 20 1B prospect right now... We need top 5-10 if we're going to compete in the AL East.

What's strange about Wallace is that he showed excellent and fairly steady improvement over his first few months in AAA, even through the start of this year, but then fell off considerably.

AAA

• MAY 09: 60ab, .250/.281/.333/.614 (.311babip)
• JUN 09: 95ab, .316/.365/.516/.881 (.351babip)
• JUL 09: 60ab, .300/.364/.333/.697 (.353babip) (memphis)
• JUL 09: 23ab, .304/.360/.435/.795 (.318babip) (sacramento)
• AUG 09: 127ab, .299/.364/.488/.852 (.348babip)
• SEP 09: 57ab, .298/.365/.614/.979 (.295babip)
• APR 10: 81ab, .272/.359/.617/.976 (.280babip)
• MAY 10: 124ab, .298/.348/.468/.816 (.382babip)
• JUN 10: 101ab, .327/.384/.465/.849 (.361babip)
• JUL 10: 22ab, .227/.320/.318/.638 (.278babip)

First time I've really looked at all those numbers together.

a couple of things stick out to me at first glance:

1. the .300avg / .360obp is remarkably consistent, no matter how his power or babip are doing, it seems. That part of his performance is looking fairlyy projectible.
2. counterintuitively, his two best months (by far) also feature his worst babip (by far). Not sure exactly what that means, especially since there was no negative effect on his OBP (which might come from just swinging for the fences every at bat).
3. He showed pretty solid improvement up to the end of last year and through april this year, then stumbled pretty badly in May this year. He recovered somewhat in June, but is scuffling again in July.

I think we'd all feel a helluva lot better if he managed to throw up another month or two similar to his SEP/APR stats there.

I don't think you're acknowledging how rare it is to actual have a real shot at a WS title in any given year.

You can literally go decades without having a real shot at it (hello, blue jays!).

When you're lucky enough to have that chance - to have a group of prospects that actually panned out, and came together as a legit contending core, and have all stayed affordable, and you've managed to stay healthy and have most of your guys having good years - when you have that rare chance (and yes, it is VERY rare, unless you're spending $150mil every year), it's your absolute DUTY as a GM to try to add any missing pieces you can, too add impact players at the cost of only lottery tickets (aka prospects).

Your contending team can go to a pretender damn quickly with just an injury here and there, and/or an off year here and there, and/or a player lost to free agency here and there - when you're having a year where the luck has stayed on your side, you gotta make the jump, IMO.

A 200-comment thread! When's the last time we had a one-a them?

:-)

I wonder if Clarence shares your enthusiasm about a guy bunting on his own initiative, as well as swinging at a pitch later in the game without a hit-n-run when Lewis gets a great jump stealing 2nd base.

Edwin Encarnacion has no business playing 3B and I can't wait till Snider's arrival pushes E5 back to where he belongs, riding the pine. It's hilarious that people around here actually think he's been at the least an average 3B since joining TOR.

Cito Gaston has always believed that if you see a pitch you want to swing at, swing the bat. Never let it go by because the runner took off.

Interesting. I would have thought that if the 3B coach gives the runner the SB sign with less than 2 strikes and doesn't put the hit-n-run on, it's a message to the batter to not swing the bat. Of course I have no idea that Lewis actually had a steal sign and didn't just go on his own initiative, in which case I'd clearly agree with Clarence's philosophy.

It is fairly remarkable that today was the Jays first GS of the season. WIth half of the season gone and the Jays leading the league in HRs.

The odds of that must be absolutely tiny.

Shows what a no OBP/ high SLG team can do.

Can we play Baltimore for the rest of the season?

Being at or near the bottom of bases-loaded opportunities makes sense for a team that thrives on the long ball and doesn't get on base all that often.