So another pitcher added (Ponce) as the rotation is now 6+ strong. What is going on? Are the Jays doing a Dodgers where you try to corner the market on starting pitchers? Doubtful. Let's see what is here now.
- 26 ERA is what Steamer predicts - easiest free one I could access at the moment)
- Age is as of July 1st 2026
- Stats otherwise are for 2025
- Options are as of now, so we can quickly tell who can be demoted and who could be lost if the Jays try to demote them
- SIERA is a method shown to be more accurate in predicting next years ERA than ERA/FIP/or most other methods.
- Note: used the SIERA column to indicate if the player was somewhere other than the majors for all of 2025 (Korea, minors, injured) - in those cases the stats are for wherever they spent the year.
First projected starters...
| Who | T | Age | Here Until | SIERA | ERA | FIP | IP | GS | 26 ERA | Options |
| Kevin Gausman | R | 35 | 2026 | 3.79 | 3.59 | 3.41 | 193.0 | 32 | 4.05 | -- |
| Dylan Cease | R | 30 | 2032 | 3.58 | 4.55 | 3.56 | 168.0 | 32 | 3.60 | -- |
| Shane Bieber | R | 31 | 2026 | 3.52 | 3.57 | 3.35 | 40.3 | 7 | 3.86 | -- |
| Trey Yesavage | R | 23 | 2031 | 3.87 | 3.21 | 2.35 | 14.0 | 3 | 3.86 | 3 |
| Cody Ponce | R | 32 | 2028 | Korea | 1.89 | 2.15 | 180.7 | 29 | 4.08 | 1 |
| José Berríos | R | 32 | 2026+ | 4.46 | 4.17 | 4.65 | 166.0 | 30 | 4.52 | -- |
| Eric Lauer | L | 31 | 2026 | 3.88 | 3.18 | 3.85 | 104.7 | 15 | 4.27 | -- |
Minor League starters (on 40 man)....
| Who | T | Age | Here Until | SIERA | ERA | FIP | IP | GS | 26 ERA | Options |
| Jake Bloss | R | 25 | 2031+ | minors | 6.46 | 4.76 | 23.7 | 6 | 4.39 | 1 |
| Ricky Tiedemann | L | 23 | 2031+ | injured | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4.09 | 3 |
| Adam Macko | L | 25 | 2031+ | minors | 4.76 | 3.89 | 81.3 | 14 | 4.38 | 1 |
| Bowden Francis | R | 30 | 2029 | 4.88 | 6.05 | 6.85 | 64.0 | 14 | 4.27 | 1 |
| Lazaro Estrada | R | 27 | 2031+ | 2.72 | 8.59 | 5.18 | 7.3 | 0 | 4.19 | 2 |
| Angel Bastardo | R | 24 | 2030+ | injured | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4.02 | -- |
Major League relievers....
| Who | T | Age | Here Until | SIERA | ERA | FIP | IP | G | 26 ERA | Options |
| Jeff Hoffman | R | 33 | 2027 | 3.21 | 4.37 | 4.90 | 68.0 | 71 | 3.46 | -- |
| Yimi García | R | 35 | 2026 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 3.85 | 21.0 | 22 | 3.62 | -- |
| Louis Varland | R | 28 | 2030 | 3.13 | 2.97 | 3.14 | 72.7 | 74 | 3.56 | 1 |
| Tommy Nance | R | 35 | 2029 | 2.84 | 1.99 | 1.87 | 31.7 | 30 | 3.83 | 0 |
| Brendon Little | L | 29 | 2030 | 3.66 | 3.03 | 2.92 | 68.3 | 79 | 3.43 | 1 |
| Yariel Rodríguez | R | 29 | 2028 | 4.27 | 3.08 | 4.40 | 73.0 | 66 | 3.98 | -- |
Minor League Relievers (40 man)...
| Who | T | Age | Here Until | SIERA | ERA | FIP | IP | G | 26 ERA | Options |
| Braydon Fisher | R | 25 | 2030+ | 3.09 | 2.70 | 3.02 | 50.0 | 52 | 4.05 | 3 |
| Mason Fluharty | L | 24 | 2030+ | 3.78 | 4.44 | 3.97 | 52.7 | 55 | 3.97 | 2 |
| Justin Bruihl | L | 29 | 2029+ | 3.42 | 5.27 | 4.16 | 13.7 | 15 | 3.97 | 0 |
| Paxton Schultz | R | 28 | 2030+ | 3.43 | 4.38 | 4.07 | 24.7 | 13 | 4.28 | 2 |
Free Agents of note (relievers only - can't imagine the Jays are going to add even more starters)....
| Who | T | Age | Here Until | SIERA | ERA | FIP | IP | G | 26 ERA | Options |
| Edwin Díaz | R | 32 | FA | 2.18 | 1.63 | 2.28 | 66.3 | 62 | 2.90 | -- |
| Robert Suarez | R | 35 | FA | 2.98 | 2.97 | 2.88 | 69.7 | 70 | 3.48 | -- |
| Pete Fairbanks | R | 32 | FA | 3.48 | 2.83 | 3.63 | 60.3 | 61 | 3.56 | -- |
| Seranthony Domínguez | R | 31 | FA | 3.67 | 3.16 | 3.47 | 62.7 | 67 | 3.74 | -- |
| Jordan Romano | R | 33 | FA | 3.66 | 8.23 | 5.39 | 42.7 | 49 | 3.98 | -- |
Now there are other prospects I could've listed (Gage Stanifer, Johnny King, assorted others) but they most likely won't factor in during 2026 but could mid-season under ideal circumstances for them (not for the Jays as it'd probably require some plan A and plan B guys to be hurt/ineffective). So I figured best to stick to 40 man guys (easy to call up) plus a handful of interesting free agents. Romano mostly due to his history here - I don't see any chance he returns except as an invitee to spring training with no guarantee. His SIERA shocked me given his insane 8.23 ERA - guy must've had rotten luck.
I thought about adding BB%, SO%, GB% but really, we care most about how effective will they be at preventing runs and the assorted numbers I give above should give a good view on that. Diaz really does stand out among relievers doesn't he?