Tbh i don't think a $10m pricetag indicates than any team views Ponce as definite quality SP material.

Keith Law likes the Ponce deal, writing on The Athletic that he’s “a very different guy now than the version we last saw in the majors in 2021. He’s up to 97-98 mph on the fastball, and he altered his changeup to take it from a non-factor to an above-average pitch. He also added a cutter and tightened up his curveball.”And if he’s “even just a fourth starter, the Blue Jays will have one of the best rotations in the AL.”

I know nothing about Ponce except what I read, and his stat line.  He'll be 32 in April, and if he were a position player, I'd be much more skeptical.  But pitchers sometimes emerge in their early 30s, and by all accounts, Ponce may have done exactly that.  Two thumbs up.

I had a closer look at the stats lines in the KBO and the provenance of the hitters.  A casual look at it suggests that the best hitters in the league were older and had no history of success in MLB.  I wouldn't attach much weight to Ponce's ERA last year, but the reporting of his stuff improvement this past year would be enough to justify the contract in my view.  

Ponce is Rodriguez attempt #2

Ponce's numbers in the KBO are irrelevant. It's how the stuff looks and how it might play against MLB hitters. The Jays obviously feel it will. They took a similar risk with Yariel and it doesn't look all that great, but Ponce seems to have much better stuff and more velocity. You could at least envision a scenario where he could be a high leverage reliever if starting doesn't pan out. We will see. I think a big market team takes risks like this. If the Jays were middle of the pack payroll-wise, then it would have made less sense. Either it works out or it doesn't, but either way the cost is negligible and won't stop them from doing other things. Of course Rogers finally starts to act like this a year before a lockout.

I don't know that Yariel is much of a comp for him tbh.

Yariel was a young guy with very little track record who they signed for longterm at a low cost. He was more of a prospect type signing whose repertoire they thought they might be able to refine.

Ponce is a vet with a long track record signed to a fairly short term deal, based largely on pitching refinements he's already made.

Call me a cynic, but Ponce at age 31 added 2mph after being unplayable in Japan and with his career dangling by a thread in Korea? How often do guys see that kind of velocity bump outside of recovering from UCL repairs at that stage in their careers? What secret techniques enabled him to repeatedly throw the hardest he ever has at an age when guys younger than him like Jose Berrios are losing velocity?

"Cease gets a $23MM signing bonus and then a $22MM salary in 2026. His salary then jumps to $30MM in 2027 and falls by $1MM in each subsequent season. $10MM of his 2026 salary is deferred followed by $9MM in each season after that. The deal also contains awards bonuses and a limited no-trade clause."

There's been a number of pieces describing how Ponce worked hard to get into better shape prior to the 2025 season, which is another way for pitchers to add velo.

That was from mlbtraderumors and so is this:

Blue Jays Open To Trading Jose Berrios

"The Blue Jays’ early signings of Dylan Cease and KBO returnee Cody Ponce have deepened a rotation that already included Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. Lefty Eric Lauer and righty Yariel Rodriguez give Toronto a pair of quality swing options, too, and the Jays still have Bowden Francis and former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann (who should be recovered from 2024 Tommy John surgery) in the upper minors as well.

The magnitude of Ponce’s three-year, $30MM contract presumably puts him squarely into the rotation. Barring a move to a six-man rotation or a spring injury, Toronto will have more starters than rotation places available. Injuries can turn a “surplus” into a deficiency pretty quickly, particularly when it comes to pitchers, but the Jays are willing to trade Berrios, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.

It’s easy to frame this as the Jays adding enough depth that they’re now willing to deal Berrios. That’d be the charitable (to Berrios) way of shaping things. The other and perhaps more likely angle is simply that Toronto wasn’t enamored with Berrios continuing as its fourth starter and has acted decisively with a pair of additions pushing the veteran righty down the depth chart.

Berrios, 32 next May, has been an iron man for the Jays and Twins throughout his big league tenure. He’s started at least 30 games every year since 2018, with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, when he started a full slate of 12 games. No pitcher has started more games (234) or totaled more innings (1367 1/3) than Berrios in that span of eight years.

Along the way, Berrios has generally been an above-average starter. He’s logged a 3.94 ERA, set down 22.6% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 6.8% of the batters he’s faced. Few starters have been this reliable for this long.

Be that as it may, Berrios’ more recent seasons have seen him trend in the wrong direction. After punching out 23.7% of his opponents from 2018-23, he’s dropped to 19.6% over the past two seasons. Add in a 19.8% strikeout rate in 2022, and Berrios has now been under 20% in that regard in three of the past four years. League average in that time has been about 22.5%. Berrios has spent much of his career working with plus command, but this past season’s 8% walk rate — while still slightly better than the 8.4% league average — was up considerably from the 6.3% mark he posted across four prior seasons.

The worrying trends don’t stop there. Berrios’ 93 mph average four-seamer in 2025 was the lowest of his career, while the 92.2 mph average on his sinker was his second-lowest (leading only the 92.1 mph he averaged back in 2019). He also surrendered the highest average exit velocity (90.3 mph) and barrel rate (11.3%) of his career. His opponents’ 42.5% hard-hit rate was the second-highest mark in his MLB run. Berrios has only yielded a hard-hit rate north of 40% in three of his 10 major league seasons. All three have come within the past four years. Unsurprisingly, given the dips in velocity, command and whiffs, Berrios has become more homer-prone; after surrendering an average of 1.17 homers per nine frames from 2017-23, he’s up to 1.43 since Opening Day 2024.

None of this necessarily makes Berrios a bad pitcher. He’s an ultra-durable source of reliable, if unspectacular innings. However, coming off a down season that ended with what was incredibly the first IL stint of his big league career (elbow inflammation), would Berrios match the remaining three years and $66MM on his contract? He’d be hard-pressed to do so — certainly once factoring in the opt-out provision he has following the 2026 campaign and the escalators that could push his remaining guarantee from $66MM to $70MM.

Currently, Berrios is guaranteed $24MM in both 2027 and 2028. Both figures would rise by $1MM if the right-hander pitches a combined 300 innings in 2025-26 and another $1MM if he gets to a combined 350 innings. With 166 frames under his belt in 2025, he’d only need 134 innings in 2026 to secure an additional $2MM and a tougher but plausible 184 innings to tack on yet another $1MM per season. Given his durability, it’s likely that Berrios will at least be promised at least $50MM over two seasons when weighing his opt-out opportunity next winter — and possibly two years and $52MM.

All of that coalesces to make Berrios a difficult player to trade. He’ll pitch next year at 32, so it’s hardly out of the question that he rediscovers some of his waning ability to miss bats and/or limit walks and boosts his profile a bit. In that instance, however, Berrios might very well opt out of the two years left on his contract beyond the 2026 season. On the other hand, if the veteran righty continues to see his strikeouts dip and/or see his walks creep further north, he could be more of an innings-eating fifth starter who’s trending down and owed $24-26MM in both his age-33 and age-34 campaigns.

Essentially, any team trading for Berrios would probably do so with the hope that he’d rebound closer to his 2021-23 form — at which point he’d likely opt out. But to acquire him, they’d also have to take on the downside of Berrios maintaining his recent status quo or even slipping further, thus making that $48-52MM owed to him in 2027-28 wholly unappealing.

It’d be a surprise if the Jays were to find an interested team that was willing to both take on the entirety of Berrios’ remaining contract (to say nothing of doing so and surrendering young talent). In all likelihood, the Jays would need to include at least some cash or take back another contract of some note at a different position. That said, starting pitching is always in demand, and there are always teams looking for creative ways to swap weighty contracts that might better fit their current roster or payroll objectives.

One other fascinating wrinkle to consider: Berrios ended the 2025 season with 9.044 years of major league service time. That places him 128 days shy of 10 years. With MLB Opening Day set for March 25 and the trade deadline set to fall on Friday, July 31, Berrios would reach 10 years of service the day before next summer’s deadline. At that point, he’d acquire 10-and-5 rights — 10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team — thereby granting him full veto power over any trade scenarios. Currently, Berrios can block trades to a slate of eight teams.

Toronto can still carry Berrios into the 2026 season and enjoy the depth he provides. In all likelihood, injuries are going to thin out the top end of the current rotation options. That’s just reality for any big league club in today’s game. But the Jays have viable rotation alternatives, and the looming realization of Berrios’ 10-and-5 rights mean that trading him next winter will be even more complicated if he chooses to forgo his opt-out. There’d also be quite a bit of pressure to try to push a deal across the finish line in late July in the event that the Jays are intent on dealing him this summer.

It’s a complicated scenario, to say the least. Berrios’ contract is underwater but not an albatross. He’s a durable source of steady innings but no longer a borderline All-Star. The Jays can try to trade him this winter or during the season, but they’ll have not only the “clock” of the trade deadline but also the artificial clock of Berrios’ forthcoming full no-trade rights. Moving Berrios now would free up some more space for a run at re-signing Bo Bichette or trying to lure Kyle Tucker to Toronto, though the Jays would probably need to take on some other costs in order to get a deal done. It all makes for a fascinating thread to follow ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings, where convoluted trade packages and high-profile changes of scenery are the norm."

dalimon5 - I advise doing small cuts of text, not full articles, from other sites. Here is a link to that article. This site uses HTML to create links and the like.

Ponce is an interesting case - Jays clearly believe in him at $30 mil over 3 years. He flip flopped between the JPEL (Japan AAA) and the JPPL (one of 2 ML in Japan like AL/NL here). He had 2 decent years in JPPL and 1 lousy (2024 - 6.72 ERA) generally having low-mid 7's for K/9 and 2.1 to 3.0 for BB/9. His last year was split almost even between JPEL and JPPL with that 6.39 ERA in JPPL (BB/K/HR same rates as earlier) and a 2.25 in JPEL (9.8 K/9 2.9 BB/9 0.9 HR/9 - maybe starting to figure it out there). 2025 was purely in Korea with that crazy 1.89 ERA 12.6 K/9 2.0 BB/9 0.5 HR/9. League ERA was 4.31 with 3.6 BB/9 vs 7.8 K/9 0.8 HR/9 to give some context. Ryu on the same team (age 38 now) had a 3.23 ERA 7.9 K/9 1.6 BB/9 0.8 HR/9 and was a mentor to Ponce it seems.

Do I expect him to win the Cy Young? No. But he should be a league average pitcher I'd think. 4.01 ERA projected with a 3.87 FIP (wonder why the system sees the Jays defense as a net negative?) - that would be damn solid. Berrios is projected at 4.29 ERA/4.30 FIP for comparison so an improvement if for real. He is a high risk/high reward play for a reasonable price.

So do the Jays trade Berrios and eat a portion of his contract? $5-$10 mil per year if he opts in perhaps? I could see the A's going for that as their budget is minimal but they need innings or their kids will collapse. Especially given Luis Severino is desperate to be traded away thus needing to find someone to eat those innings (no I don't see the Jays taking him - perhaps making it a 3 way deal so the A's lose him, get Berrios, and the Jays get something else). Rockies always need pitching, might they be interested to get rid of Kris Bryant ($27m per for 3 more years - completely worthless in Colorado negative WAR there over 4 years thus would be a take and release candidate). The other $10+ mil Rockies contracts are Kyle Freeland (LH starter) and Antonio Senzatela (RH starter) who both stink and don't have good K numbers, but aren't as pure a write off as Bryant is. They also signed Ezequiel Tovar long term at SS for about $9 mil a year (5 plus option left, cheap years done so going into the more expensive ones now, over $11 mil per starting in 2028) but that is probably a reasonable deal (he is entering his age 24 season and appears on the Alex Gonzales path - good D, meh O with an 88 OPS+ lifetime).

Always difficult to find good trade partners - bad deal for bad deal is hard. I could see the Jays eating a Rockies pitcher bad deal for Berrios then shifting him to the pen to see if there is anything there, better than raw cash. Can't see them eating Bryant's deal unless they got something 'wow' back (top 100 prospect or something) but that would be a very dumb move by the Rockies (not that they are known for good moves but now have a smarter GM).

Hmm... just read the CF market is very thin this winter. Wonder if Arizona might be interested in our 2.9 WAR backup - Straw. They seem to be open to trading Marte, perhaps a deal where we get Marte & Alek Thomas (very strong defense, poor offense) for Straw + ??? - they seem weak at 1B/DH/LF so a few of our OF'ers would help (Schneider/Loperfido/Shreck as they seem to be ready to get cheaper). Perhaps some relief help too (their pen was OK but not anything special). Plus a real prospect. Clear out some spare parts, get a younger backup in CF who is just hitting arbitration (Jays wanted him back when they got Varsho, but he was #2 to Varsho and rightly so).

Funny to think that Straw could now have value.

Heyman says it's a bidding war between the Jays and Mets for Diaz and this is one reliever i'd be happy to overpay for. He's several stratospheres above any other reliever on the market.

Wonder how expensive he will be in the end. Diaz is damn fine though - SIERA sub 3 every season in his career but his 2nd (age 23 3.36). Basically that means that the best method of predicting future success from the fundamentals of his pitching say he is a damn fine pitcher every year from 2018 to now. That method isn't available pre 2002 but for comparison Mariano Rivera cracked 3 at ages 34, 36, 40 and that is it (ages 32-43 available). From 2002 to now, among pitchers with 100+ IP in relief Diaz is #12 in FIP (2.56), #4 in xFIP (2.52, beat only by Mason Miller, Dellin Betances, and Carson Smith - all whose careers appear to have ended due to injuries). He is 3rd in SIERA (Koji Uehara & Mason Miller ahead of him).

Basically everything screams that he isn't a fluke or a fly by night closer. This guy is the real deal. Ala Henke, and all the HOF closers. Someone who if healthy is damn good and should keep being good going forward. I hate giving $20+ mil to a closer or 3+ years but in this case I can see $100 mil over 5 being given.

If we can sign Bo or Tucker instead of Diaz then don't sign Diaz. If the FO is out of the Bo/Tucker sweepstakes then sign the man now.

Kyle Tucker reportedly visited the Blue Jays today.

Where does Heyman say it's down to Mets and Jays?

Kyle Tucker is from Tampa Bay so it would be a short drive to head down for a visit. All told despite Tucker being the superior player I would prefer Bo, but both would be very very exciting.

Its also hard for me to think about who between Lukes and Santander who I would want in LF everyday next year. Honestly my gut says Lukes.

However ultimately if they sign tucker, Bo is likely gone with Barger at the hot corner and Clement at 2B. With Barger sitting regularly against lefties and Clement swapping to get Schneider time at 2B.

With this Tucker and Diaz news and the signings that have already been made - there is without doubt some cognitive dissonance.

Is this really happening / the same franchise I’ve been following for 30 years? I was very young in the early 90s when by all accounts this is exactly how the Jays behaved.

They fell so far from this for so long that it is worth stopping and reflecting on how remarkable this is. There was the mid 10s run but they were still tier 2 spenders and in perception of FAs. They’ve left teams like BOS way behind now.

When you look at the names the jays signed in the mid 00s and even early and late 10s and what’s happening now - has any club gone through such a change?

You had teams and like the Indians / Giardians that were big spenders and then they weren’t and won’t ever be again from the looks of it. Just wanted to express some gratitude - there were some horrible horrible years that we went though and just seems so different now

What is truly crazy about this is that it actually never made any business sense for them NOT to spend big on this team.

This market was always huge and lucrative and always showed up whenever the team was good. And they had a unique media arrangement that made it even more lucrative. Rogers were being business idiots for decades before they realized that the sports business is as big as it gets.

If it's between Lukes and Santander I'd say there's about a 0% chance Lukes gets the job. Lukes had an 89 WRC+ in second half and a 90 WRC+ in the playoffs. Teams seemed to figure him out to some degree. He can field and makes good contact and can be solid filling in for an injury so he's a good fourth OFer but no way I want him starting unless someone gets hurt. Just not enough offensive upside from a corner Of spot.if you look at last year, Lukes was 26th in baseball in LF WRC+ (more than 300 PAs) and 23rd in WAR. You just have to aim higher than that. There's so little upside with Lukes and he's 31 too so it's not as if he's likely to improve. Fantastic story of working hard and making it but shouldn't be starting on a contender. Santander was awful when he played last year but was a very good hitter for three straight years before that. I don't expect 44 HR's again, but 30 is possible and that would be a huge help.

They weren't being idiots. Shapiro came in and tried to build his own team of young players and then started signing Ryu and Springer with top of market deals as early as 2019. I think it's more accurate to assume that players were refusing Toronto's money more often than not. They were in on Gerrit Cole, Corey Seager, Justin Verlander, Corbin Burnes, Shohei, Soto and on and on...they've always been looking to spend and haven't been able to convince enough top guys to take their money over better destinations. At a certain point you can't change that. They went to 700 million for Shohei and the Dodgers matched. What do you do then, offer 800 million and overpay every player egregiously because it's going to make you millions in winning? I don't think it's that simple and I'm glad they did it their way trying to build a winner based on a team and organization philosophy and home base which is top of the league with the Dodgers.

For a funny note: Wilner's podcast this week (Deep Left Field) will have Gord Ash on it and I mentioned that I was curious what he was up to - that he seemed like a nice guy even if his time as Jays GM was a disaster. Response was "He was running the team with one hand tied behind his back thanks to awful ownership at the time. Disaster is extremely unfair." I strongly disagree with that as many of Ash's issues were not ownership related. Handed a WS team with multiple top 100 prospects (Delgado, Alex Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart, Chris Carpenter and others who never developed) and then added a HOF'er in Halladay that summer iin the draft. Yet never won 90 games. He hired a liar as manager (never checked his resume), traded a 20 game winner (Wells) for an injured guy who never threw a pitch as a Jay at any level (Sirotka), traded Olerud for junk (might have been budget based, but blew that budget holding onto Carter and Molitor), etc. His drafts were good in round 1 despite a tight budget with a few gems later (Orlando Hudson the big one), but his last 2 were total flops (no one reached 5 WAR in either). The Ash era was a lost era, JPR was just as bad. Both had potential, but neither GM could convince ownership that a winner would draw in more revenue nor could either figure out how to make a winner on the field.

Agreed with dalimon5 - the current Jays were smart, building a solid base pre-2020 so they could add pieces to fill holes so they could win (Ryu, Semien, Springer, Gausman, Kikuchi, Bassitt). Now the challenge is to keep winning and mix in kids so the payroll doesn't go to $400+ million. But where to mix them in is the challenge.

Right now the Jays top prospects are 2 shortstops who haven't reached AA yet, and a batch of starting pitchers. Not the worst thing to have. Yesavage, Tiedemann, Bloss all could contribute this year if healthy (big if). Stanifer and King are both close enough to reach if everything goes right for them, but I wouldn't bet on it. The outfield has Pinango, Arias, and Schreck all in eyeshot. As is Kasevich if he is healthy and can hit his weight. Still, few star potential (Stanifer, Tiedemann, obviously Yesavage are the close ones who have it, but otherwise I'd only say JoJo Parker & Arjun Nimmala have that All-Star potential). In 2027 and beyond these kids will need to step up or the Jays will have major budget issues going forward. At $300 mil the average salary is $11.5 mil - so new guy Ponce is actually below what the Jays likely average salary will be at 'just' $10 mil a year. Yikes. Not sure how much further the Jays can go. Depends what they plan to do after 2026 I guess - they could sign Tucker, Bo, Diaz and then just start letting guys leave post-2026 (Springer, Gausman, Bieber, Varsho, Garcia could cut $80+ mil from the payroll if they stick with in house guys post-2026, but that wouldn't go over well with fans I suspect - kids could cover the rotation/pen maybe, Santander goes to DH, Schneider takes over LF or another of the 101 outfielders does, CF Straw takes over, the pen is always a crapshoot).

One wonders just how far Rogers is willing to go, and how much Sportsnet makes in profit each year. Rogers paid $45 mil for 20% of it in 2004 to gain 100% ownership back when the Jays sucked thus were not drawing high ratings (net value of SN then would've been $225 mil). When the Jays were still sucking (2012) Rogers bought 'The Score' for $167 million (now Sportsnet 360). The Jays are worth $2.15 bil US pre the 2025 season via Forbes. Rogers Communications is worth $28.7 billion according to its current stock price (Canadian dollars of course) so the Jays are around 15% of Rogers net value so significant but not a make or break part of the company. FYI: Forbes claims the Jays last made money in 2020 (really?) while climbing from $1.6 bil in value in '20 to $2.15 pre-2025 season making them #14 in net value in MLB (seems way off to me).

Ugh. Getting into the financials always becomes a slog as the teams claim to lose money, and Rogers has an easy time of it by shuffling cash between the Jays/the stadium/the TV network as they own all 3 and have a big incentive to minimize the Jays revenue (due to revenue sharing between clubs) while also needing to watch where the revenue goes so no area is too high, thus taxed heavier. I'm sure their accountants earn their salary every year.

So what is left? Basically however much Rogers wants to spend. If payroll can be easily cut $50+ mil next year (not hard to see how) then they can sign 1 or 2 more guys, but that should be it. Depends on how much Rogers enjoyed being the talk of the town and if it helped sell more mobile plans/subscriptions/ad revenue/etc. to justify a $300+ mil payroll. In 92/93 the Jays had the highest payroll in MLB but Labatt's (owner at the time) decided it wasn't worth it once Labatt's was sold to Interbrew - leading to the dark times (1994-2014) before Rogers finally saw how much revenue could jump with a winner, and now in 2025 they saw what a WS team can do to revenue, not just Jays revenue but the goodwill Rogers gets by being the owner of the team.

Even now as they spend money freely like they always could and should have you guys still defend their decades of treating this like a small market team that had to consistently lose all their star players when it came time to pay them.

You guys really don't have to defend the mega corporation being stupidly cheap for decades and destroying the brand in the process.

What they're doing now is what they should always have been doing. The market didn't change.

Ultimately with being close to his hometown, this might be a way Tucker is using the Jays as leverage as well on other teams.

2018 to 2025...nice try to change my post into defending a "mega corporation that has been cheap for decades." I think you just have no idea what happens behind the scenes or maybe choose to ignore them because it's convenient to pretend you knew all along they would have been a WS contender every year if they hadn't been so cheap and dumb.

Just the money they spent on the stadium and minor league and spring training facilities was a big spend. The failure falls on those players and people that cannot see the correlation from the investment to the payoff...they think somehow you can bypass that and just go from bad to great with nothing but money...see Mets.

Time to fess up, come clean and admit you were wrong and this FO isn't some cheap venture capitalist outlet looking for ways to make money while robbing you blind. Repent now not forever hold your grudge!

I don't think I've defended Rogers being cheap from when they bought the team to 2020, but more stated that the GM/presidents during that stretch (and before it) did a poor job selling the owners on why to spend. Beeston got Interbrew to give in and sign Clemens for a record amount at the time pre the 1997 season - an excellent investment, but the club around him sucked (piss poor trade of 6 decent prospects for Carlos García, Orlando Merced and Dan Plesac - when the best guy you get in a deal is a reliever (a loogy at that who threw just 123 innings over 2 1/2 years in 181 games for 1.0 bWAR total but somehow was traded for Tony Batista and John Frascatore, later signed here again and was traded for Cliff Politte) for 6 prospects can only be viewed as a failure. Merced wasn't a flop (he felt like one despite his 2.5 bWAR in his only season here) but Garcia was even worse than I remembered (-2 bWAR in his only season, yikes).

The Jays back in the 90's were bizarre - spending big at times (Clemens, the Delgado last 2 contracts) but then would go cheap (trade Olerud for nothing, not sign any other decent free agents, etc.). JPR's era was pure cheapness at first, then blew the wad on poor choices (BJ Ryan for example).

It's not as simple as spending and not spending.
AA's contracts were all backloaded. That's a way to paint yourself into a rebuild.
Vlad is making a little less every year, So will Cease.
The Jays gave Vernon Wells a premature extension that didn't age well.
It was massively backloaded and it's the Angels and the Yankes who ended up paying the expensive years.

I imagine that they could have attracted free agents in the late 90s.
They did sign Clemens.
They developed a bad reputation after that.

Lineup construction has been a huge headache for the last 15 years.
They were often the only competitive team with no impact left bat.
Belt had a nice season in 23, with a 135 OPS+, but only 43 RBIs.
Nobody offered him a contract the following year and his career ended at 35.
That didn't exactly made Toronto a good place for a pillow contract even though Siemens had done just that in 21 but benefited from playing in minor leagues ballpark.


They could extend Varsho, but how long can they bet on him?
There's very few outfielders producing with the bat in their late 30s.
KK's last good year came at 33.
The Mets traded Nimmo to the Rangers at 33. Still a 114 OPS+ but they probably figured it wouldn't last.
Grisham had a breakout season at 28 and accepted the QO.
Varsho is the same age.
His value can change a lot depending on what he does in 2025.

Uh dalimon sorry bud but it's only you moving goalposts

R.Romero Vaughan noted the sudden and obvious change in the franchise's willingness to spend.

I noted that this was always the smartest approach for the franchise and the literal decades rogers wasted behaving like a small market team never made financial sense.

And then you tried to put your own random narrowed goalposts on the discussion to try and make a false point.

Nice try tho.

Grisham i feel is a Judge + park creation. He managed to make a change, & not everyone will be, but I don't see it translating elsewhere.

R Romero finished his post with "Just wanted to express some gratitude." You responded "what is truly crazy about this is that it actually never made any business sense for them NOT to spend big on this team...Rogers were being business idiots for decades before they realized that the sports business is as big as it gets." So from gratitude to despise (have to rely on your hundreds of posts against Shapiro to see that).

I responded to your post by separating Shaprio and his tenure out of the "Decades of futility" narrative popular amongst older Blue Jays fans spoiled by 92/93.

Then you accuse us of defending a mega corporation like you're running a food bank and we're working for Sheriff of Nottingham. Very rich indeed! There's no goal posts only your consistent complaining about anybody in office for Rogers because of failures by all of them of what you thought they could and should have been doing in the past when the Red Sox, Rays and Orioles were trotting out some of the best teams in baseball. I mean, no, the Shapiro Jays didn't win because they are idiots and didn't spend! Of course, thank you for that insight! Ha.

Your a revisionist. "I noted that this was always the smartest approach for the franchise," and "never made financial sense," ... buddy you're not an analyst or board member for Rogers. You had no idea in 2018 that there would be a pandemic that would change the landscape of sports or gambling becoming legal to add more money to the pot or most importantly, that cable would essentially be cut and live events would increase dramatically in value to broadcasters. Sports didn't become a boon to Rogers until after that chasm. Do some research on the subjects you love to hate.

Let's simply agree that I've enjoyed watching Toronto Blue Jays baseball a lot more than you the for "decades" while being run by idiots.There's nothing I enjoy more than seeing the change of tone in posts by posters known around these parts to hate corporations, Rogers, Shapiro or any combination of an entity with interest in making profits.

Good question on Varsho and how long he will last. I think a 5 year deal could make sense for both him and the Jays - covers age 29-33, as your example shows a few top notch CF'ers on defense had good years at 33 recently. The general rule is ages 25-32 is the peak for the majority of players. Some peak earlier, few later (outside of PED situations). I think a big part is what does Varsho see his value as being at. If he thinks he can get a $30 mil per for 7+ years then he is going to free agency. If he thinks $15-$20 mil for 5 ($75-$100 mil) is nice and sets him up for life then he can be signed. Going over $100 mil for Varsho I think would be a mistake.

Right now it seems the Jays are setting themselves up for the next 5+ years.
Signed through 2030: Vlad, Cease, Gimenez (opt), Santander (opt), Kirk - covers C-1B-SS-DH and a starter. Barger, Varland, Little, Lukes, and others are under team control through 2030 as well (3B-setup-relief-OF). Schneider is here through 2029, Clement-Ponce-Rodriguez-Berrios through 2028.

I figure any other major free agents (Bo, Tucker, maybe Diaz) will be signed for 5+ as well - putting them here through 2030 also (Bo & Tucker likely longer than 5).

I am glad you enjoyed the poverty decades of futility and embarassment.

Most fans did not, and it cost ownership billions.

Thankfully ownership is now doing what they should always have been doing.

Hopefully you can learn to enjoy us being an actual good team now, even though you'll have to suffer all of us fake fans who didn't relish the unnecessary poverty decades as much as you did, now actually enjoying the team.

Dude I'm 40 years old. Like everyone I followed and watched the championship Blue Jays in the early 90s. From 1998 to 2005 I was watching the leasts amount of baseball as a teenager. I started following as a more engaged fan when Ricciardi was in power and enjoyed watching the Jays try to compete with the mega NYY and Red Sox. Halladay was my favourite player. Then that rolled into AA in 2010 when I as 25 years old and that was also very enjoyable as a fan. Then cam Shapiro and lots of fan hate. I've enjoyed the past 10 years as a whole.

Now you, I'm guessing you're a lot older than me and carry a lot of hurt feelings or experience with "decades" of idiot management and cheap ownership. I just don't share that experience at all and glad to say as it sounds insufferable.

Still waiting for you to back up your hallucinations: "being stupidly cheap for decades and destroying the brand in the process." Go ahead and scroll that mouse cursor to the search bar...that's it. Now type www.google.ca and start your research there...

what's to back up? it's obvious to everyone that ownership is behaving differently now than it ever has before. we are all well aware of the decades of low attendance and tv ratings. none of this is debatable.

you pretending otherwise is just plain weird tbh.

Rogers isn't necessary just one guy.
There has been some changes at the head of the company.
Also, Rogers used to defers most everything to the President of the Jays, up to the payroll.
It's up to that President to come up with a business plan that manages revenues and expenditures.

I have been very happy with Shapiro, generally speaking.
He's fairly low key.
He's done some nice things like compensating minor leaguers better than the average org.

Maybe we don't talk enough about the quick rebuild from last year to this year's incredible run.

To be honest as you like to say, I'm not at all well aware of the decades you speak of. I've gone through the records from 1995 to 2025 and I would appreciate some enlightenment as the numbers and dynamic realities of the AL East during that time do not match your claims as not being debatable.

I am glad to see you make some acknowledgement that the ownership is acting different now than before but perhaps you should consider that it's possible they are not acting different and it is only the results that are different. Look at the free agents they've offered on since Shaprio has arrived and explain how it's different now.

Reason has deteriorated into "pretending something is open to debate makes you weird." Trump response on Da Box.

"Grisham i feel is a Judge + park creation. He managed to make a change, & not everyone will be, but I don't see it translating elsewhere."

Grisham had a 104 WRC+ at home and a 151 WRC+ on the road. Not sure he's going to repeat but he's a good player (just shouldn't be playing CF).

Ugly, there were articles about the Jays being contracted or moved in the interbrew years. The team was pretty open about losing money at that point(the exchange rate was a big deal at the time) and they needed massive capital infusions as well.

Rogers isn’t stupid. They’re in the game to make money. We’re lucky we got a President that spoke their language and could show an RoI on the team that made sense to Rogers. Also, a principal at Rogers that made these investments a priority. The spring training facility and stadium renos are over half a billion dollars. They should be commended for that. The Yankees are paying the city of NY $100M a year to pay back the capital used to fund their stadium, for example.

Trying to say that all of this success was inevitable is beyond ridiculous. It could have very easily gone differently.

For the spending the team never went a full decade without opening the wallet - 1997 set record for most paid to a pitcher to Clemens (thank you /s Paul Beeston for introducing Clemens to his drug dealer). pre-2006 Jays set a new record for highest contract to a reliever ever while also adding a lot of players in an effort to win under JPR. pre-2013 Jays jumped payroll via trades (free agents weren't interested) to try to contend (came in last).

Cot's has Jays payrolls back to 2000. Top 10 payroll at start of season in 2001, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2023, 2024, 2025 (9 times). Bottom 10 at start in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2011, 2012, 2019 (7 times). Never #1 or #30. 2005 was the lowest rank at #25, highest was #5 in 2025 (only time in top 5). For comparison the Orioles were top 10 in 2000 (4th their peak), 2016, 2017 (3 times), bottom 10 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2019-2024 - worst was 2022 #30 dead last. Baltimore in the late 90's was a big spender with Gillick as the GM. Rays were top 10 in 2000 only (10th), 5 times dead last, with 2001 the last time they weren't bottom 10 (18th). Red Sox top 10 2000-2022, 11th or 12th in 2023-2025, #1 in 2019 & 2018. NYY top 10 all 26 years, #1 15 times (last in 2020, 2000-2013 every year).

So I'd say Rogers has been a reasonable owner with opening day payrolls. When the team contends they spend, sometimes even when they don't (2001, 2008, 2018, 2013, 2014 - all attempts to contend that failed). The 'Rogers is so cheap' bit I think comes from us expecting them to spend as a top 5 team, which they could and finally are doing. Sharing a division with the Yankees and Red Sox does that to you. Poor Baltimore fans - they finally had some hope but their owners are super-cheap so no real spending increase, their big acquisition was Tyler O'Neill during this success cycle (2023/2024), before that it was 2012-2016, before that 1994-1997. 1983 was their last time in a World Series (won) so one could argue Seattle has had more success than Baltimore post 1983 (they won 3 in the ALCS last year, Baltimore hasn't done that since 1983) even though Seattle has only 6 playoff appearances ever 1995-2001 when they should've made it, plus 2022/2025.

So yeah, things could be a lot worse. Baltimore & Seattle fans will tell us that as would many other teams fans. Seattle's last top 10 payroll was 2009 btw - their owners seem happy in the 11-22 range aka the mushy middle.

i don't know what we're even talking about tbh - it seems pretty obvious that what ownership is doing now is unlike anything we've seen from jays owners since the early 90s.

this isn't 5 year plans or payroll parameters or we'll spend when the team proves it deserves it or any of that stuff we had to put up with for the most of the last 30yrs.

seems weird to pretend otherwise.

What we’ve seen with spending on the 2025 and 2026 rosters is great, and we should all appreciate this excellent new era, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Rumours aside, we still don’t know if ownership will approve the icing on the cake for 2026 (impact bat and reliever).

Yeah, agreed on the payroll talk - the Jays were cheap vs market potential for most of 1995-2019, with some brief stretches of spending but never to top 5 level until this past season. Just wanted to guess what they have to spend to see what is possible - adding one of Tucker/Bo/Diaz or adding 2 or all 3. Imagine if they did add all 3 (very, very unlikely) then we'd have a killer offense with Barger sharing 3B with Clement plus our best closer in a long time (Ward?).

So for fun perfect case lineup...
Springer (DH)-Tucker (RF)-Vlad (1B)-Santander (LF)-Bo (2B)-Varsho (CF)-Kirk (C)-Barger (3B)-Gimenez (SS) backup C: Heineman, IF: Clement (used as often as possible), OF: Straw, Spare: Schneider (2B/LF/probably 1B/3B too). That lands under 'wow' for an offense imo. Only weak spot is #9 Gimenez who might sit at times for Clement.

Staff?: Cease-Gausman-Bieber-Yesavage-Ponce Pen: Diaz-Hoffman-Garcia-Varland-Little-Rodriguez-Lauer-Berrios. I could see them going 6 man rotation often with Berrios.

Realistically Berrios will be traded, as might Rodriguez. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if they signed yet another starter and shift Ponce to the pen for 2026 if they feel Gausman/Bieber won't be resigned post 2026.

More realistically one of Bo or Tucker is signed, and Fairbanks instead of Diaz (a lot cheaper), then Berrios & Rodriguez traded to a team desperate for pitching in exchange for whatever they are willing to give up (even an A ball pitcher or a AAAA reliever) as their roles in the pen are going to be minimal and are better used by Nance-Fisher-Fluharty-etc as part of a Buffalo shuttle to keep the starters fresh and high pressure relievers rested.

Worst case (no one else signed)...
Springer (DH)-Lukes/Schneider (LF)-Vlad (1B)-Santander (RF)-Varsho (CF)-Kirk (C)-Barger (3B)-Clement (2B)-Gimenez (SS) Backups: C: Heineman, IF: Jimenez, OF: Straw & whowever isn't playing of Lukes/Schneider.

Staff: same; Pen: Hoffman-Garcia-Varland-Little-Rodriguez-Lauer-Berrios-Fisher rotating with Fluharty/Schultz or Nance (no options for Nance so he is in the majors or anyone can take him).

Not too bad imo.

They keep breaking franchise records for contracts.
This is completely unprecedented.

A 5 year plan is a rebuild. That would have happened in 2016, but they made the playoffs in 15 so they actually increased payroll in 16.
Now, the team aged out of contention in 2017, the rebuild started in 18, but it was  more like a 3 year plan if you remember "less competitive, more competitive, competitive". 
So by 21, it looked like the 3 year plan had worked, but the pandemic complicated things. 
But while competitive, the team still looked a ways from the World Series and every time they tried to fix something something else broke.
Also, they had to spend capital on the parks and facilities.
It didn't just happen overnight. It was a long term plan.

They are spending because the team proved it deserved it but they also tried to spend last year (Soto) and the year before (Othani).

Red Sox with a very nice trade to get Oviedo for the Password. They weren't going to use Garcia anyway and Oviedo has very nice upside.

There certainly is a lot of pitching available in free agency and via trade this off-season.

greenfrog - it does seem that way. Right now, ignoring guys who signed, using FanGraphs, there are 2 FA projected over 3 WAR (Valdez & Ranger Suarez), 5 more in the 2's, 24 in the 1's - all but 1 of those 31 pitchers are starters (Diaz the one reliever). 16 relievers are listed as likely to get $4+ mil deals per year. Just 6 expected to get 2+ years (Diaz tops at 4/$84 mil, other 5 are at 2 years each - Robert Suarez, Keller, Fairbanks, Dominguez, and Weaver). 4 relievers worth 1+ fWAR last year are not estimated. That is a lot of talent out there with only Diaz costing draft picks - everyone else is purely salary.

Hmm... speaking of draft picks, the assorted sites only list what happens if you sign 2 free agents with QO, but the Jays could go sign 3 - Cease, Tucker, and Diaz - would they lose 6 draft picks then? 2-3-4-5-6-7? They lost 2-5 already, 3-6 if they sign another QO guy, then I'm guessing 4-7 for a 3rd.

For comparison, batters have 3 projected at 4+ (Tucker, Bo, and Bregman), 1 more at 3 (Bellinger), 6 more in the 2's (includes Munetaka Murakami - Steamer has him sub 0 earlier, but now at 1.9 with FGDC at 2.1). 16 guys at 1-1.9. So 27 who might be useful, 11 who would be league average or better based on projections. Bo, Tucker, and Schwarber are the only hitters left with QO. It'll be interesting to see how it all works out.

Every winter there are tons of interesting looking guys but every winter some go unsigned and we never learn why - Brandon Belt is a good example of that - had a 2 WAR season here in 103 games, 135 OPS+, should've resulted in someone giving him a deal for 2024 but no one did. Last winter Kenley Jansen took until mid-February to sign which seemed odd - he is still a solid closer but seems to be no one's first choice (he is about to be 38 and his K/9 dropped last year to a career low 8.7 but a 165 ERA+ and 29 saves and just 1 blown suggests he still has it. Heck, I'd be happy if the Jays sign him to a 1 year deal. At 476 saves he really has a strong incentive to push for 24 more to crack 500 which might get him into the HOF (he'd be the 3rd guy to do it. Kimbrel is next at 440 but had 0 last year and threw just 12 IP 7 BB 17 SO - can't walk over 5 per 9 IP and expect teams to give you a shot at the closing role. Chapman next at 367 but same age as the above 2 thus unlikely to get 133 more saves. Diaz and Iglesias are tied at 253 for the next spot and are far, far away from 500+. So if Jansen gets to 500 he might be alone there for awhile which would jump his HOF chances.

There's nothing unusual about signing late anymore.
It's mostly because a guy is holding on for more money or he has an offer from a team but would prefer to play for another.

The Blue Jays could do something similar with Loperfido, but having optionable depth is good too.

The Jays signed an 18 year old Cuban pitcher, Alieski Torres, for $200,000. They have about $400,000 left in International spending money and about a week and a half to use it before this year's signing period ends.

Jays have signed 46 players this international period. Jays are losing and going to lose a lot of picks in the draft from free agent signings so they need to make up for it with hitting on some of these. Sanchez already looking very promising and curious to see how Moon will do and a few other guys are interesting.

Smart move by the Jays - sign anyone who is an IFA with promise now, and figure it out later. With 2 picks gone and potentially 4 more going away (Diaz, Tucker both would cost picks) and a max of 1 coming back (Bo) they need to be aggressive in the IFA market. I suspect they might be hunting for more IFA cap space in January/February during trade season. Don't be shocked if they dump a few guys like Lukes, Loperfido, etc. for cap space. The $1 mil lost in IFA cap space is for 2027, not 2026 over signing Cease.

Mitch Bannon of The Athletic lays out three potential route to improving the Blue Jays roster this off-season, categorized by levels of spending:

1. “Filling in the gaps” (sign Fairbanks, trade Berrios for McNeil)

2. “One more big addition” (sign Bo and RP Tyler Kinley, trade Yariel for Ezequiel Duran)

3. “Unprecedented spending continues” (sign Tucker and Suarez, trade Lukes for P Mlodzinski)

* routes

Say, any other heavy users of FanGraphs here? Got their annual Walk Off report - 92% percentile of users (no shock) but 2898 people used them more than I did in 2025 (geez people, those 2898 are kinda addicted I think), listed as a 'Roster Connoisseur' and 'Data Digger'. Highest rank for views of a Jays player page I got was #34 for Joey Loperfido (guess I checked how he was doing a fair amount), Davis Schneider I was #37 for. Anyone hit the top 10 for views of a recent Jays player page - I was #3 for Bill Caudill by just going to it once.

In the new year I'll have to make a point of going to a few obscure player pages just to have it come up in the 2026 report :)

As to Jays content... Keep seeing click bait sites pushing the Jays going for Alex Bregman - I see him as a 3rd choice to Bo & Tucker - if the Jays fail on both of them, then Bregman becomes an option. Tucker & Bregman would both be a way to upgrade defense without any sacrificing of offense. Bo is a drop in defense to keep offense. Bregman is going into age 32 season (a yikes for me) projected at a 120 wRC+ to go with excellent defense at 3B. As a reminder Bo is projected at 121, Tucker 136. So for pure offense it is Tucker (age 29) #1, Bo (age 28) #2 barely ahead of Bregman (age 32). Bellinger is a distant 4th option imo right now - projected at 116 for his age 30 season. All have had a season in the 130's+ thus have high ceilings vs internal options here (Lukes/Schneider, neither has had a 130+ wRC+ season over 150+ PA, let alone a full season of it). Hard to picture the Jays chasing any other options for offense in free agency - Munetaka Murakami has some curiosity about him due to the raw power (rated at 80) but he makes everyone nervous with his horrid numbers vs 93+ MPH fastballs. I keep hoping he signs with Colorado just because that kind of power would be fun there - he might hit 60 in just home games with a 220 average. All or nothing hitters are fun if they aren't on your team and you don't need to face them often. Great for highlight reels.

FYI: for fun some clickbait sites are now saying that the Yankees have no interest in Bo. I seriously doubt that, but it is interesting that instead of saying they are pursuing him that they'd be going the other way (didn't mean to click on it, but the headline was too sneaky suggesting the Jays had signed him - I just need to not click and go to MLBTR instead - they tend to have the real news faster than I could otherwise find it).

In other rumors - Ken Rosenthal says the Twins are not planning to trade any of their big trade bait guys now. That could be, as those guys might have more value mid-season (Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton, Pablo López). Buxton is the only one that could fit here - a CF entering his age 32 season with a 136 OPS+ last year, in the 130's 3 of the past 4 years, signed for 3 more years @$15 mil per (plus up to $11 mil in incentives).
The A's seem determined to get something of value for Luis Severino. No shock there, as their payroll is crazy low as is (barely over $100 mil for Luxury Tax purposes). MacKenzie Gore, a decent LH starter (ERA+ of 98 lifetime, never over 104, 2 years of control left) for Washington, is a hot commodity who looks like he could be dealt soon. Jesse Chavez, a 2 time Jay (2012, 2016) who didn't do well here (ERA+ 73) and wasn't used in the playoffs is now a bullpen coach for the Giants.

Nothing earth shattering going on as the winter meetings start Sunday and go until the 10th. Something might happen there, but the Jays seem to often use them to set up future deals/signings. However, in 1990/91 they did that 'wow' deal of Fernandez/McGriff for Carter/Alomar (2 HOF'ers in their prime there, plus 2 HOVG guys). So who knows? Anything can happen and that is a great time to make it happen when everyone is in the same place.

Bit of a fluff piece, but MLBTR reports the Blue Jays are interested in Okamoto.

I would be happy if the Blue Jays added him as a versatile 1B/3B/DH piece.

I'm sure Okamoto is an option if they don't sign Bo. There's no way they sign them both because IF would be Bo, Gimenez, Clement, with Barger also covering 3B. You wouldn't need a third guy who can cover 3B. If they don't sign Bo though, then Clement is at 2B so 3B is way more open.

Guess Okamoto is option #5 or 6 on the list.

Tucker-Bo-big drop-Bregman-Bellinger-big drop-Murakami-Okamoto appears to be the current order of preference. If they sign Tucker or Bellinger then Barger is at 3B, if they sign Bo or Bregman then Barger is in RF. If they sign one of the Japanese players then Barger could be at 3B with those players being backups or in RF with that player being at 3B everyday depending on how the Jays see them/pay them.

I see Okamoto as a high end backup IF if Tucker/Bellinger is signed for the OF. He is entering his age 30 season and had a 1014 OPS last year in Japan, his best ever. FG current has him projected at a horrid 217/284/341 75 wRC+ level which seems low for a guy with a career 277/361/521 line in Japan. He is more a due diligence check up guy than someone the Jays are really after I think.

Wow, apparently Yariel Rodriguez DFAd. Hopefully, they can trade him but love how the front office isn't playing around this offseason. He's making money but he isn't good enough so get someone better!

Damn. Ugly will love this move and can't say he's be wrong.

Something tells me this FO may do something controversial and trade either Barger or Clement for a front line starter or Kwan type hitter.

*he'd

🧠🤏

"The Blue Jays designated Rodriguez for assignment Saturday, Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com reports.

Rodriguez's performance improved considerably upon moving to the bullpen in 2025, as he finished the regular season with a 3.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 73 innings. Despite his strong numbers, the right-hander will now lose his place on Toronto's 40-man roster but is likely to draw some interest on the waiver wire." taken from cbs sports site

Did a lot of looking, found an X post on Yariel Rodriguez being DFA'd by Francys Romero who writes for https://www.beisbolfr.com/.

No idea how accurate he is, but it is odd I can't find any other sources. He is still listed on the 40 man on the Jays site. Might be he jumped the gun on something. I could see Rodriguez being traded but DFA'd when there are 2 spots open on the 40 man still? Seems off. What I did hit is he was named to the Cuban team for the WBC.

Also when looking for it I hit this saying that Bo is a Red Sox target if they don't sign Bregman. I could endure the Sox more than the Yankees, barely.

I think Bo's mom has Boston connections. I vaguely remember Buck talking about it on a road trip when Bo hit a home run at Fenway. Just looked it up with fake machines...Bo's parents met at Gold's gym across from Fenway.

BNS and Shi Davidi reporting he's already cleared waivers.

Well, damn, should've waited a minute - multiple sources now list it. MLBTR as always is the best summary of stuff. Seems he can be re-added to the 40 man, so this was more a fishing expedition to see if anyone wanted him for nothing. I'm kind of surprised no one did. He is owed a minimum of $17 mil over the next 3 years (player option for $6 mil in 2028, or team option of $10 mil that year). For a decent middle man that seems reasonable. He was dominate in the first half with a 67 sOPS+ against (2.47 ERA), but meh in the 2nd with a 94 sOPS+ (4.21 ERA). He wasn't trusted in the playoffs - just 2 2/3 IP over 4 games, not used in the WS (iirc he wasn't on the roster even).

To me the timing is weird - with 2 open slots (one to be used by Ponce soon) there wasn't any need to do this right now. Wonder if it is in response to his being named to the Cuban national team in some way? Or if the Jays are about to announce signing 2 more free agents shortly or doing a trade that will add to the 40 man roster? There has to be another shoe dropping here.

So it just means Jays cleared room off major league roster And Yariel can be sent to AAA to start there to provide depth and doesn't have to take up room on roster.

Surprised he cleared waiver tbh. How much was he owed exactly?

Cot's suggests it is $17 mil but Mike Wilner says it is $15,800,000. I'm thinking an advantage is now he can be sent to Buffalo to be stretched out as a starter again and possibly be a better option than a few of their other options for #7 starter. Plus while in Buffalo I think his contract doesn't count against the Luxury Tax, so that is a plus too.

Rodriguez wasn't good enough to be claimed, even at a modest AAV ($5-6M). Best case is he can start in the minors and maybe develop into something that can help down the road.

If you want to feel old, the second player in the Jose Ferrer/Harry Ford deal was Isaac Lyon - the son of former Jay Brandon Lyon.

I’m surprised that they DFA’d Rodriguez but he might come back and be useful out of the pen. I’m more surprised that he got that contract in the first place. He has no future as a starter as none of his secondaries are very good. He has a fighting chance as a reliever though where he can just throw hard and duck.

He got that deal as a free agent back a few years ago - it seemed like a good idea at the time as he was seen as a 'meh' starter or possibly a lights out setup man. His signing was mid-thread here. A lot less on him than I expected, unless there is another thread out there that I missed. I know I was happy with the signing at the time. Anything that costs just cash for talent is a good move - I don't own Rogers stock so why would I care if they make a few million more?

Outrighting Rodriguez to the minors also gets his salary out of the luxury tax equation. Probably a motivating factor

It doesn't get it out of tax equation. It used to be like that but after the Rusney Castillo insanity (kept him in minors to keep salary off books), the loophole was closed.

Rodriguez been strong against RHP (OPS 624) and mediocre against LHP (OPS 737) but that BB9 rate of 4.2 is far too high. You have to strike out vast numbers to make that work. My subjective impression watching him was a bit like watching Berrios: unable to finish the hitter off.

I guess if there’s an upside to this, the Jays have put performance over salary. If you need to free up room, Rodriguez is the one who should go, since other players have done better. And given he’s not terrible, that’s a nice problem to have.

MLB's own description on the luxury tax says it's only 40-man roster contracts... so then if it's not true, then the site is wrong.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

FYI: ex-Jay minor leaguer Ryan Noda has been DFA'd by the O's. He was traded years ago to the LAD for Ross Stripling. He had one WOW year for Oakland (118 OPS+ in '23 when the Jays could've used it) but since has sucked big time (36 OPS+ over 170 PA as a 1B/RF/DH). The A's got him off waivers from the Dodgers, LAA took him off waivers from the A's, Red Sox purchased him, ChiSox took him off waivers, then finally the O's took him off waivers. Wonder who'll take him next if anyone. Entering his age 30 season so I'd hesitate even if I was a horrid team like the Rockies at taking him. Not sure he'd be worth a AAA deal either.

With the Rodriguez contract ($17 million) the Jays are 1.5 million under the third tier penalty, Without 18.5 million under

If all talk is true it doesn't matter they're going over.

But at least now he should be easier to trade.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/blue-jays-outright-yariel-rodriguez.html

Rodriguez still counts in luxury tax calculations. It was done to get him off the 40 man roster.

It's a good move because I think it gives the Jays time to try to turn Rodriguez around and maybe try him as a starter again. Have him as depth in Buffalo and if he's good enough, just add him back to 40-man.

Can anyone provide an authoritative source on the luxury tax implications (or lack thereof) of removing Yariel from the 40-man roster?

Marc and Mitch Bannan had convo on X

https://x.com/marchulet/status/1997477066384769457

from google AI

AI Overview
Yes, for a player on a guaranteed major league contract, their average annual value (AAV) still counts against the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll of the team that outrighted them, even if they are playing in the minors.

When a player with a guaranteed contract is outrighted to the minor leagues, they are removed from the 40-man roster, but the team is still financially responsible for the remainder of their guaranteed salary. This "dead money," or retained salary amount, continues to be included in the team's CBT calculation.

I believe the official answer to the CBT calculation formula comes from the Collective Agreement (https://www.mlbplayers.com/cba). This is from Page 128, under the section on CBT:

(f) Outright Assignment to a Minor League club: Any Uniform Player’s Contract that is assigned outright to a Minor League club shall be included in the Club’s Actual Club Payroll.

So it looks like Yariel counts towards our CBT payroll calculation.

Guess MLB closed that loophole before teams like the Jays, Dodgers, Yankees could exploit it. Could see the Dodgers putting a killer team in AAA ready for call-up as needed. Put in poison pills to contracts too so if the guy is sent down and someone tries claiming them their salary jumps.

Agreed that Rodriguez in AAA as starting depth makes a lot of sense for the Jays, and they don't have to worry about a 40 man roster spot either. Or they can keep him in relief and see if they could unlock something there. Either way, the contract is cheap enough to where he could easily become tradeable with improved performance. It's not like Straw's contract that only Ross Atkins would have ever traded for (though to his credit it worked out).

At 7:30 PM we see if an ex-Jay legend, an ex-Jay coach, an ex-Jay prospect, an ex-Jay Cy Young winner, or Bonds, Murphy, Sheffield, Valenzuela makes the HOF. On the panel are... Hall of Famers Fergie Jenkins, Jim Kaat, Juan Marichal, Tony Perez, Ozzie Smith, Alan Trammell, Robin Yount; Executives Mark Attanasio, Doug Melvin, Arte Moreno, Kim Ng, Tony Reagins, Terry Ryan; Media/historians Steve Hirdt, Tyler Kepner, Jayson Stark. Many of these are anti-PED people so safe to say Clements, Bonds, Sheffield are toast. Jenkins/Kaat/Marichal/Perez were 70's and earlier mostly while Smith/Trammell/Yount were 80's mostly - that should give a big boost to Murphy and Mattingly. The anti-PED voters will like Delgado but his numbers look low compared to his contemporaries who juiced up. Plus his protesting the USA in PR and not being a 'rah rah USA' person post 9/11 will hurt him with some of these voters (most are likely strong Republicans who value being patriotic over all else).

My prediction is sub 4 votes for the PED crew (IE: they don't reveal how many votes they got). Murphy and Mattingly get in despite short careers (Mattingly just 6 years of 3+ bWAR peak of 7.2, Murphy 7 years of 3+ peak of 7.7 - both in the 40's for lifetime WAR, just one playoff series each). Jeff Kent has a real shot imo, but being a teammate of Bonds will hurt him here - 9 years of 3+ WAR, peak of 7.2, over 50 WAR lifetime (highest of the non-PED crew), 7 times in the playoffs and hit well 276/340/500 but no titles outside of getting a ring due to being on the Jays in '92 and getting one despite being traded late in the season. Delgado 6 times over 3 WAR, peak of 7.3, 44.4 bWAR lifetime - his 138 OPS+ lifetime is far ahead of Mattingly & Murphy & Kent but his WAR is driven down due to being rated on a scale with contemporaries like McGwire/Sosa/Bonds/etc. (same applies to Kent).

I see Fernando as having a very low shot at getting in. He is a legend in Mexico but won fewer than Stieb in an era when wins were everything. From 19-26 he looked like a surefire HOF'er, but 27 to the end a 4.29 ERA 90 ERA+ and 5.3 bWAR total. Kind of sad.

For fun, Delgado & Kent's first pro season was in St Catherines with the Jays in 1989. It'd be fun if both could get into the HOF together.

Subjectively, one of the key areas of growth for this front office has been avoiding the sunk-cost fallacy in their recent personnel decisions.

"The phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be beneficial."
I think people often see a clarity that isn't there. Future performance is hard to predict, especially since it depends on good health.

It's the payroll that has grown, not the front office.