If only IKF was two feet further down the line..

The projections will like change substantially by the start of next season, but I just wanted to gather up the final Fangraphs Combined Rest-of-Season projections for our roster heading into the offseason.

the full projections are only available for guys on the active roster, so the guys not on the active roster i have ROS projections from whenever the last time i updated was.....might not be the very final projection for them but it should be pretty close.

an asterisk means that they are about to be free agents.

The pitching projections are a bit messier because the playing time projections get all weird, and also they don't really know how to handle guys that are both starters and relievers.......i think they key here is to just look at the ERA and FIP projections, and assume that they are projecting mostly on the role that they've been in for the most part, not for the role they might have. i.e. so even though Bassitt and Lauer are projected as relievers here, their actual stats projections are probably no different than if they were being slotted in as SP.

Maybe because I'm old and this isn't my first rodeo, I had passed through Denial ("NOOOO!") and Anger ("God DAMN it!") before Kirk had even made it back to the dugout last night.

I've been stuck on Bargaining ever since, which is probably why those old epic tennis matches have been on my mind. But if you watched Rafael Nadal play stupendous, impossibly great tennis for 5 hours and 53 minutes at Australia in 2012 - and not win, to see Djokovic prevail in the end somehow - it actually changed your understanding of what sports can be. Seriously. It expanded it somehow. Because it was simply impossible to regard Rafael Nadal as a loser that day. It was almost immoral. All you could say was - well, the other guy won.

I'm sure this will pass. I'll think of the 1997 Cleveland Indians, and how they were three outs away from their first championship in 49 years. They didn't get those outs, and lost in extra innings. That will be depressing. So will the realization that Cleveland wouldn't make it back for another 19 years. And that they'd lose in extra innings. Again. That will also be depressing.

And then spring will come.

I know the stages of grief are for after a thing happens, but I got started early. I skipped Denial and went through Angry in the 9th (Rojas burnt it out of me). Then it was Bargaining until the end of the game. The post-game interviews and a long night's sleep got me through Depression. And today, I woke up refreshed (my sleep was almost non-existent for a few weeks) and firmly in Acceptance, and looking to see what they might do to get back and get that last win in '26.

I don't think I'll ever get over Hoffman giving up a home run to Rojas. I could live with everything else. Baseball is a game of inches. IKF should have had a bigger lead. The Dodgers made great defensive plays that if they were a split second late on would have resulted in a Jays championship. If Bo Bichette wasn't on one leg, then he scores on the Clement single, and the Jays would have been up 2 in the 9th instead of 1. Those things happen. Bad luck happens. However, giving up a home run to the #9 hitter who never hits home runs when the team was 2 outs away from a World Series will forever be in my head as a fan.

Hoffman gave up the most HR's for a reliever in the AL (2nd in MLB) and the Jays as a team gave up the 6th most home runs in MLB with only 5 bad teams ahead of them. It's actually remarkable that they even got this to point given their pitching staff, but losing because of giving up home runs was unfortunately on brand for this pitching staff. It's something they need to look into next season. Why do pitchers come to Toronto and suddenly start giving up HR's left and right?

Oh well, still not over this. Won't be for a while. Usually I'd be excited about the off-season moves but not now. I kind of wish the lockout that's going to happen next winter would have just happened now. If anyone could use a mental break from baseball, it's Jays fans.

Why do pitchers come to Toronto and suddenly start giving up HR's left and right?

If it's all pitchers, it's something on the other end of the battery.. I.e. catcher's calling patterns or pitching coach's preferences for certain pitches in certain counts. I already voiced my frustration earlier this year that if we get an 0-2 count, it seems like the modus operandi is ALWAYS to waste 2-3 pitches and then hope you can get a call on a borderline 3-2 pitch - running up pitch counts.. A lot of things went well for this team, but pitch calling seems like it's not ideal.

Who in the media started with the IKF secondary lead stuff? It is very irritating to see it being repeated over and over again.
You can’t go halfway down the line on a secondary lead. Obviously, people who have been propagating this POV have never played baseball before. Had IKF got down the line as far as people wanted, he’d be picked off and then the same people would be wailing about how bad of a mistake that was.

I get the concern about not being doubled off, but given Varsho hasn’t a line drive on about three weeks, the routine grounder to second was the scenario I would have been game planning for.

Bassitt's inability to start and turn the double play also let a run score.

Weird gold glove this year - France got it at 1B. Clement didn't get it for utility despite having a league leading 22 DRS overall (split almost evenly between 3B/2B plus 1 at 1B and a 0 at SS) and the winner being far, far behind him. Kirk not getting it I expected (too many voters will look at him and say 'not a ballplayer' thus making subjective votes hard for him to win). What is funny is the Fielding Bible gives out awards for the majors as a whole and Clement won the multi-position award from them facing not just AL but NL fielders as well. Go figure. Hopefully Clement is everyday at one position next year (3B or 2B) thus able to be appreciated by voters more.

So which of the free agents is most likely to return, and which do you want to return?

• Bo Bichette - I suspect we'd all like him back, but how much will it cost? I suspect he is OK at 2B going forward (he seemed really good there during the WS despite the injury). A 7+ year deal (ages 28-35) will probably be needed at $30 mil per = $280 mil I'm guessing. MLB Trade Rumors has him as the #1 SS/2B option expecting something like Seimen's $175 mil deal.
• Shane Bieber - listed in the 2nd tier for starters by MLBTR, listed as a high end #3 arm. Bottom end tier 1 guys they listed at $25-$30 mil per for 5 years so I'd think Bieber would be similar.
• Chris Bassitt - listed as an 'effective late-career arm' at BR (same link as Bieber) he is expected to get a 1-2 year deal at $15 mil per.
• Max Scherzer (Same link) - expected to get a 1 year $10-$12 mil deal this time.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa - listed at 3B at MLBTR is listed as 'multi position player' but no contract guess. I think it is safe to say well under $10 mil, which is below average for a player on the Jays roster now ($260+ mil expected payroll in '26) so very affordable if they want him.
• Seranthony Domínguez - "veteran setup guys" at MLBTR 'decent multi-year deal is possible' is the money quote suggesting someone will offer him $10 mil per for 3 I suspect.
• Ty France: gold glove notwithstanding there is nowhere for him here with Springer, Vlad, and Santander all (hopefully) healthy in 2026. No more than a part-timer now and a 1B/DH who can't hit isn't needed.

Not a lot of FA's to dig into. Bo would be sweet to keep, Bieber would be great to hold, I'd like Bassitt kept around as a #5/long man until a kid or two is ready to step up. Can't see how Scherzer returns, can't imagine the Jays want more of the Dominguez experience, IKF I'd give a minor league deal to but would tell Schneider he isn't to play everyday period.

FYI: Doing all of this as a way to feel hope again. Dream of a better 2026 when I dream of the Jays winning 100 in the regular season for the first time.

MLBTR also has their top trade candidates and where they might go. Jays factor in as 'place to go' in a few situations...

• Joe Ryan, RHP, Twins | projected $5.8MM salary; controlled through 2027 via arbitration - Jays on of many, many teams listed as interested.
• Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians | projected $8.8MM salary; controlled via arbitration through 2027 - an odd one, but Jays were after him in the summer. Best defensive LF in MLB so he fits the Jays MO. Solid 100 OPS+ bat who has reached the 120s twice and been in the 90's twice in his 4 year career.

That's all they had the Jays after. No Jays were listed as possible trade candidates.

$280 M for Bichette is crazy high I think if you are talking about a 7 year deal. And while I think he's great and deserves to be paid, I'm not sure how much you want to pay for years 8+. If Siemien's 7 year $175M is the comp, I'd do that. I think 7 year, $180 M to be primarily a 2b would be a good fair outcome. Maybe it becomes a $210 M / 10 year deal or a $150M/5 year deal. 5 years is short enough you figure to get all years that rate to be good, and short enough that Bo figures to likely get one more good contract after that (most of the time). So I think 5/150 would be the best deal, but 7/180 or 10/210 would work too. If two years ago never happened, and if Bo was still a fast runner, then you could be talking about the 280-300 or higher contracts, but I don't think Bo hits a 280M contract.

I wonder where the ALCS Game 7s rank in terms of the greatest collections of pitching talent on display in this city on any particular night.

Without looking, the 1991 All-Star game would be the top collection of talent. These game 7s, with both teams' stables of aces available, would have to be 2 - 3.

Surely there are many other evenings where the pitching talent was unusually exceptional.