There was a conversation in the previous thread about Bloss and a comment was made that it wasn't the Jays fault- it's just baseball now.

I disagree. On the day Bloss came out injured, I posted that he was mishandled. He threw 38 pitches in the first inning. Most high-stress offerings and he was up to 97 mph - harder than usual. Then over 3.1 innings, he threw 73 pitches. It's also important to note that Buffalo had a number of rainout and pitchers' schedules were all out of whack.

The NHL has concussion spotters... MLB should have overwork spotters.

When it comes to pitchers injuries no one is perfect or even close to it. The Dodgers are universally seen as the model organization but have TONS of pitcher injuries every year. High pitch innings are a concern, but it has been shown before that the best indicator is arm angle and if it changes (a sign that leads to injury) - no idea if Bloss' angle changed, and the stats given (38 pitches in first, 2 1/3 more innings just 35 more pitches so clearly not laboring after that tough inning) don't suggest he was in trouble. Ideally you keep a guy to sub 30 pitches per inning, but realistically they will need to go to 40 sometimes. I'd love to see stats on how often guys have 30 pitch innings and how they do after that - do they get hurt within a week of it or are the odds of injury the same as after a usual outing? Do other clubs handle it differently?

Something MLB might want to look at is having the minors get a rule like used in the spring - if a pitcher is up to 25+ pitches in an inning (or 30+, whatever) he can come out and be brought back in the next inning. You want to stretch their arms out, but in as safe a manner as possible. It'd have been funny to see inning by inning pitch counts for guys like Nolan Ryan in the 70's when they didn't track it - he walked so many and K'd so many that he had to have many 30+ pitch innings.

Would be easier to make the argument that it's the Jays fault if every other organization in baseball wasn't suffering from the same phenomenon. There is lots of evidence now that it's the way pitchers are throwing - not how many pitches - that is causing these injuries. There's no way to try to blame the fact that he threw 10 more pitches than he should have as a reason to blame his coaches or the organization. Kind of silly to think that his arm was injured from random amount of extra pitches just recently. Sure, it had nothing to do with all the innings and pitches and spin rate increases and off season work done on this arm across two organizations (Houston and Toronto) and probably coaches in the dozens which is to say nothing of his own personal training at after-market pitching camps.

I had Bloss as my #1 prospect because I expected him to get to the Jays this year.

Currently I like A Tolhurst as a SP. He has been injured a lot so they eased him in as a reliever. 40IP & 60IP in 2023/24. I like his stuff and he is adjusting to AAA. Hope he can do 80IP this year.

It's so hard to pinpoint the cause of something like TJ.  I do think having some sort of industry-standard response would be a good idea though, whether that be an overwork-spotter, (sounds good to me), or something else. 

Count me out on pitchers leaving the game and then coming back in.  Feels like I'd find that annoying.  It is meant to be an entertaining product after all, and some risk is assumed in sports.  
But I am glad we are having this kind of conversation in sports circles.  I saw a great conversation on fighting in hockey (on The Agenda with Steve Paikan, of all places) and the depth and complexity of it, across a range of perspectives, was so much greater than back in the day.  I see pro wrestlers and fans grappling with injury in episodes of "The Dark Side of the Ring", the best show I've ever seen on the way that participating in sports (or whatever you want to call pro wrestling) can ruin lives. 

Hope Bloss recovers well. 

Crazy pitching night in Dunedin, two 21 year olds, drafted 18 rounds apart, 19Ks between them.   It's been a roller coaster year, but Yeasavage is off to a best-case start to his career, and Stanifer is dominating as a long reliever, after two years starting, and repeating a level, but with these guys, Stephen and others, Dunedin has some promising arms. 

The NH game has finally started after a rain delay. Van Eyk pitching. He has been pitching every 6th or 7th day. With all the rain is the pitching staff getting enough work? Are the playing conditions dangerous on the pitchers arms? I don't know enough.

"The NHL has concussion spotters... MLB should have overwork spotters."

I totally agree with this, there are a number of knowledgeable baseball people who have stated the reason the average fastball thrown today is harder than it was a decade ago is the aspiring MLB pitchers throw harder to garner attention with the 2 mph uptick or sometimes even more, in order to make the show and make the big bucks.

This also explains why there are many more TJ surgeries than there were. It's all quite clear in my mind.

This idea you got to rest an arm and coddle these pitchers and not have them pitch too much is absurd,(if they are not over throwing), I believe, and Japanese baseball supports this, it's expected their starters throw 120 pitches in each outing. Throwing a ball imho, in no different than kicking a ball or running, you build up strength the more you exercise it providing you are not "over doing it"

Marc, I agree a lot more work should be done, i.e. a overwork spotter, but the problem is most of those things aren't backed with any conclusive data yet. Even the whole "100 pitches" thing is just arbitrary round-number nonsense. What we do know is that pitchers being forced to over-throw in youth baseball all the way through college has a significant impact (and we're seeing those arms blown out at younger and younger ages). Just because a player finally blows their arm out when they're with an MLB team, it doesn't mean the damage isn't already done over the years prior. Then it becomes an inevitability, it's just a matter of when.

I don't have interest in placing blame on something where we have no conclusive data that the teams themselves are the problem. It's just a hot potato situation, and the Jays had the potato. What we do know is there is a systemic issue all the way down to youth baseball. If we are messing up kids' ligaments when they're going through puberty, I'm not sure any result other than the current ones could be expected.

FWIW, despite the tangent above, I do absolutely think they should have taken him out. I'm moreso talking about the underlying issues. I just think only blaming the Jays would be an oversimplification of the topic.

But, yes, they should have taken him out, no question there.

Former Blue Jay Ssem Robberse is headed for TJ surgery.

So now you just need to have previously pitched for the Jays to get TJ surgery (that's a joke FYI).

Van Eyk had a good game today. 6IP 2 unearned runs. Hunter Gregory is having an outstanding season so far.

Biomechanically, the act of overhand pitching is inherently risky. The sports science and orthopedic literature—going back decades now—has been pretty consistent on this. Humans just aren't built for repeated high-velocity overhand throws. We're adapted for underhand or sidearm movements, not this.

Dr. James Andrews and others who've studied UCL injuries for years have emphasized this point repeatedly: it's not about undertraining, it's about an unnatural motion done at extreme intensity and volume. In fact, a 2017 study in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine (Chalmers et al.) found that overuse, fatigue, and velocity were the most consistent predictors of injury—not lack of training.

And some players just draw the short straw genetically. RA Dickey is a great example—he was born without a UCL and had to reinvent his career with the knuckleball. On the flip side, you’ve got guys who throw 98 mph with perfect mechanics and still tear their elbows. Conditioning helps, sure, but it's not a magic bullet when you're working against the structural limits of the human arm.

Orelvis

* First 12gms: 40pa, 10.0b%, 47.5k%, .063bip, .056avg, .083iso, -17wrc+
* Last 20gms: 82pa, 11.0b%, 23.2k%, .340bip, .278avg, .236iso, 140wrc+


Schneider

* First 7gms: 29pa, 20.7b%, 37.9k%, .167bip, .087avg, .043iso, 35wrc+
* Last 15gms: 63pa, 12.7b%, 34.9k%, .400bip, .259avg, .222iso, 133wrc+



we can't just ignore the first 33% of their PA this year of course, but still encouraging to see the broad-based improvements.

It was cold in Buffalo to begin season and after spending a couple months in Florida probably felt 10x worse. Would take some time to acclimate to temps.

Here’s Kiley McDaniel of ESPN’s latest draft prediction for the Blue Jays at #8:

8. Toronto Blue Jays -- Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State

The Jays are sitting here waiting to see how the potential chaos in front of them will play out and to pick up what's left. In this scenario it's Arquette, but his safer player demographic means a lot of teams will be considering him above this pick. My ranking below has a top tier of eight players, and I'd bet only one or two of those players get here because that grouping is pretty consensus within the industry (and even more so if you include a couple from the next tier).

McDaniel’s own ranking of the top eight players is:

1. Jamie Arnold, LHP
2. Eli Willits, SS
3. Ethan Holliday, 3B
4. Seth Hernandez, RHP
5. Billy Carlson, SS
6. Liam Doyle, LHP
7. Kade Anderson, LHP
8. Aiva Arquette, SS

To compare, BA top 8

1. Nationals — Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS Range: 1-3
2. Angels — Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State Range: 2-4
3. Mariners — Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS Range: 1-3
4. Rockies — Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee Range: 4-10
5. Cardinals — Jamie Arnold, LHP, LSU Range: 2-5
6. Pirates — Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS Range: 6-8
7. Marlins — Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma Range: 7-13
8. Blue Jays — Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU Range: 8-16

Anderson has pitched his way solidly into the top tier of college arms in the class and could fight with Liam Doyle and Jamie Arnold to be the first lefty off the board.

Dariel Ramon hit .348 for the FCL Jays this season. That earned a promotion to Dunedin for the fun sized shortstop.

I came across this today and thought I would share as I found it very enlightening about Trey Yesavage. Enjoy :o)

Blue Jays: RHP Trey Yesavage (TOR No. 2/MLB No. 71)

The skinny: Stuff-wise, Yesavage was one of the top arms in the 2024 Draft but struggled through injuries for most of the year before the Blue Jays selected him 20th overall, and he didn't pitch competitively after signing last season. Yesavage made his pro debut this spring in High-A and has dominated, pitching to a 2.22 ERA and 43-8 K-BB ratio over his first six starts.

Mayo's take: I think we were all very curious to see what Yesavage would do because he didn't pitch last year, unlike most college guys. They're slow-rolling him, understandably, because they've had bad luck with injuries in their system. So he's still at High-A, but I can't imagine he'll be there much longer. The stuff is very, very good. The fastball averages around 94 but is missing bats at a good rate. He throws a very, very good splitter and an excellent slider with cutter-type action to it. Both of them miss a lot of bats. It's almost unfair because he's in the Florida State League. I think he needs a challenge and needs to move up to the Midwest League soon.

Today's BA Draft Chat (sorry long)

Anonymous
What do you like more in Witherspoon over Kade Anderson? What are you hearing that leads you to predict the Jays taking Kade over Billy Carlson?
Carlos Collazo
The gap in fastball velocity is the most obvious difference between the two. Witherspoon has averaged 96.4 mph and touched 99 compared to Anderson who has averaged 93 mph and touched 97. It's pretty impressive how Witherspoon has been able to hold that velocity deeper into his outings this season as well. Both pitchers deserve credit for their workloads this season and getting deep into games consistently. If there's an assumption that I am way higher on Witherspoon than Anderson, that's not the case. I view them as basically equivalent on talent. They are difficult to separate. Regarding Anderson over Carlson, I actually had Billy higher in a first version of the mock but got some pretty consistent feedback that the college arms (Anderson, Witherspoon, Doyle) all needed to be higher than where I had them.

Anonymous
Any chance that Jace manages to leapfrog Aiva for top college bat? Who is your favorite prospect in each category: college hitter, college pitcher, HS hitter
Carlos Collazo
Yep. Arquette and Jace feel like the top two guys in that demo at the moment. It would be unsurprising to see Jace go in front, though most of the decision makers I've spoken to in recent weeks have Aiva in front because of his shortstop profile and the whiff questions with Jace. In order of my strength of preference: High School pitcher: Seth Hernandez. High School hitter: Eli Willits. College Hitter: Aiva Arquette. College Arm: Jamie Arnold.

Anonymous
Do you think there’s a chance where Eli Willits is available for the Bluejays at 8?
Carlos Collazo
Increasingly I feel like he won't be there. There's also a pretty big jump in bonus pool money from the Marlins at 7 ($15.2 million) to the Blue Jays at 8 ($10.3 million). All the teams picking in front of Toronto have at least $14 million to work with. For a high school player like Willits who is being viewed as a top-five player in the class I think that will be pretty tough to make happen from the Blue Jays POV.

Anonymous
Is there any rumblings about who the Bluejays really like?
Carlos Collazo
A lot of people tie them with Eli Willits because of the age and the Arjun Nimmala pick that is aging pretty nicely. They're scouting all the same players that everyone else in the top 10 is scouting.

Anonymous
Regarding the Jays' prospective pick, how would you distinguish Kade Anderson from Brandon Barriera?
Carlos Collazo
Really different players. Anderson comes with a lot less risk. He's more polished, his pitch mix is deeper and more advanced at the time of the draft. Different bodies as well. Outside of fastball power, I'm not sure you could point to a single thing that Barriera did better than Anderson at the same time. Looking back I guess we were pretty bullish on Barriera's slider, but Anderson has a hammer of a breaking ball as well.

Anonymous
Any word on who the Jays might be targetting at 8?
Carlos Collazo
Shoutout to the Toronto fans in the chat. You guys are well-represented. Nothing more specific than what I've previously said today or what was in the mock draft earlier this week.

Anonymous
How does Aiva Arquette compare to Brooks Lee at draft time?
Carlos Collazo
Difficult to imagine two more different top-of-the-draft college SS profiles. Brooks Lee was all about a polished, no-need-to-project-on hit tool and a maxed out frame with less exciting secondary tools and some injury questions. With Aiva you are stomaching more hit risk to get huge power upside, physicality, athleticism and a big league body to dream on.

Anonymous
Who are the top 5 prospects out of Canada this year? HS
Carlos Collazo
Sounds like 3B/OF Tim Piasentin and RHP Will Hynes are the clear top two Canadians this year. After that it gets pretty muddled. I wrote about both these guys recently on the site.

"3B Tim Piasentin & RHP Will Hynes: Piasentin and Hynes are the top Canadian prospects in this year’s class. Piasentin is a power-oriented lefthanded hitter who has been getting a lot of attention in recent weeks and puts together impressive BP sessions. He could fit in a similar range as Canadian catcher Nathan Flewelling (Rays, third round) from the 2024 class. Hynes is a 6-foot-2 righthander committed to Wake Forest. He’s been consistent with his outings and throws a fastball in the 91-94 mph range. Scouts believe he has a high-probability starter profile."

Anonymous
Does the Blue Jays lower bonus pool push them towards college players with their 1st pick? Of the top 8 prospects, who’s most likely to fall out of the top 10.
Carlos Collazo
Not necessarily. Our current top eight players are Jamie Arnold, Ethan Holliday, Seth Hernandez, Aiva Arquette, Jace LaViolette, Eli Willits, Marek Houston and Billy Carlson. Of that group I think the most likely to fall out of the top 10 are: Marek, Billy and Jace. Hard to see any of the other names outside of the top 10 as it stands today.

Knuckeler - you can tell Mayo is really dialed in, since he made two mistakes on that one. First he says he's at High A, then he says he needs to be promoted to the Midwest League (Vancouver is in the Northwest League).

Thanks for sharing Mendocino.

UBC Thunderbirds@ubctbirds
⚾️ BASE | PARTY LIKE IT'S 2006! 🕺🎉

@ubc_baseball are headed to the NAIA World Series for the first time in nearly two decades, as they defeat IU Southeast in extra innings!!! 🤩 #GoBirdsGo

Also on the Mayo piece, the story looks at intriguing, under the radar prospects. Yesavage is a number one pick and dominating the FSL since his debut. That qualifies as under the radar?

"That qualifies as under the radar?"

Well, it's not like he was one of the first 19 players drafted...

Duran is becoming quite interesting. Last year, he had 15 SBs and 0 HRs and this year 3 HRs and 0 SBs. Seems like he's striking out more to go for more power which is good because his K rate was low anyway. He seems like a good defender so being even a decent hitter means a likely major league career of some sort. This is his 3rd year in A so can see him moving up before too long. Jays system has a lot of hitters I can see being part-timers/AAAA players but apart from Nimmala and Roden, it's hard to see anyone else who profiles as an everyday player right now. System badly needs influx of better hitting prospects.

"Knuckeler - you can tell Mayo is really dialed in, since he made two mistakes on that one. First he says he's at High A, then he says he needs to be promoted to the Midwest League (Vancouver is in the Northwest League)."



LOL exactly, I picked up on that right away as well, I just cut and pasted the entirety of what was said and published.

Otherwise, I was thrilled to read what Mayo had to say about Yesavage as I expected the comments would be very glowing and generous as they were.

In low A his numbers aren't just very good they are spectacular over a reasonable sample size of 7 starts.

I want to see him promoted to Vancouver soon to see if he can duplicate his success there. My gut feeling is he will
and if his success continues we may see him in Toronto next year.


8
TreyYesavage
P
DUN 3 0 2.43 7 7 0 0 0 0 33.1 19 13 9 3 1 8 55 0.81 .162

Maroudis had a bad start in the FCL today.

I can highly recommend a night out at the Tbirds baseball stadium. The quality of the baseball is pretty decent, the stadium is practically new and the setting is great. UBC is starting to develop players (mainly pitchers) of draft quality on a semi regular basis now.

Maroudis walked four in less than an inning but I wouldn't worry, getting back to normal takes time.

Does anyone have a sense of whether Phil Clarke can actually play C or not? and/or if the org thinks he can?

I want to see him promoted to Vancouver soon to see if he can duplicate his success there. My gut feeling is he will and if his success continues we may see him in Toronto next year.

I hope this doesn't come true, but speculation at the ballpark press box before Wednesday's game is that Yesavage may bypass Vancouver for New Hampshire.

I know prospect development trumps all but they may have to throw a bone to NH. That has to be one of the worst minor league rosters in all of baseball.

I'd be wary of skipping Yesavage over Vancouver entirely. Watts-Brown looks like he's ready to move up to New Hampshire, I'd give them promotions together. Adrian Pinto could probably move up too.

From personal observation, he's below average but not terrible. The receiving is a little below average and he doesn't throw out runners well. I also don't think Clarke will hit much.

Edward Duran is by far a superior prospect... the Jays really should push him up to Vancouver but there's not much depth to fill his spot in Dunedin. Plus the club also has Aaron Parker playing every day there (although he really can't catch).

I hope this doesn't come true, but speculation at the ballpark press box before Wednesday's game is that Yesavage may bypass Vancouver for New Hampshire.

I never assume I know more than management and it's easy to point out possible mistakes they make in errors of judgement after the fact, but I agree with you of taking it one step at a time with Yesavage.

On another note, I was looking at Nimmala's hitting stats and although he appears to be hitting a pedestrian .278 ave that is actually top ten at #9 in batting ave in the Northwest League with 100 bats or more.

Incidently the only 3 guys hitting over .300 in the league are 22, 23 and 20 yrs old respectively, indicating to me he is doing really well.

Its also worth noting Nimmala's SO have dropped slightly to just less than 1 per game (29 in 31 games), that is also another very good sign as it indicates he is improving as he face's better competition.

thanks.

yeah i don't see Clarke as a "prospect" at all. but he's 27 and just put back in AAA now so i'm just wondering if he's actually in the picture as mlb catching depth in the shortterm or not.


maybe more interesting is that C Niclas Deschamps has finally re-joined vancouver. same age as Parker, but iirc Deschamps actually has some legit defensive chops - and he hit pretty well last year, though didn't have a ton of playing time. not the kind of hitting to get interestint as a prospect unless he has real catching skills tho.