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The Big, Bad Bombers, coming to a ballpark near you. Near me, anyway.


Back in 2019, the Yankees drafted a couple of kids out of Delbarton School in New Jersey. They didn't sign Jack Leiter, who went to Vanderbilt instead and ended up the second overall pick in 2021, and I would expect to see him pitching for the Rangers very, very soon. They did sign Anthony Volpe, who won a Gold Glove last season as a 22 year old rookie shortstop. Which hasn't happened very often. He chipped in a little with the bat - he hit some HRs, he drew some walks, he stole some bases - but he hit just .209, mainly because he was striking out a lot. So far this season, he's cut the strikeouts significantly and Hey Presto! He's been the best hitter on the team that employs Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. I doubt that will be true all year, but I do think we're going to grow very tired of this kid.

The Story So Far

Already? It was just last week.



Matchups!

Mon 15 April - Gil (0-0, 3.00) vs Bassitt (1-2, 5.06)
Tue 16 April - Rodon (1-0, 1.72) vs Kikuchi (0-1, 2.30)
Wed 17 April - Stroman (1-1,2.12) vs Gausman (0-2, 11.57)

New York at Toronto, April 15-17 | 252 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#444536) #
Gil walks a lot of hitters (5.95/9IP in his career). I hope Springer, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette work the count and don't let him off the hook by hacking early in their PAs.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#444538) #
Today is Jackie Robinson Day.† # 42
scottt - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#444539) #
I hope they swing at good pitches, no matter the count.
Angel Hernandez had the plate the last time the Jays faced Gil, so the results don't necessary mean anything. 
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#444540) #
Springer .222/.319/.349
Bo .214/.279/.339
VGJ .194/.306/.371

Still have some work to do on their plate discipline.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#444541) #
Jansen up.
92-93 - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#444542) #
The Yankees bullpen has the lowest strikeout percentage and the third-worst K:BB percentage in MLB, so not allowing Gil to go deep tonight is important for the series.
SK in NJ - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#444543) #
Jansen is up, but Kirk is starting tonight. Obviously no Davis Schneider because that's how the Jays roll but Kirk without exaggeration has been horrendous and has played about 95% of the season so far. Maybe it's because of Bassitt, I don't really keep track of the "personal catcher" situations. Thankfully the Jays face Rodon tomorrow so Davis and Jansen should both be in the lineup. It's gotten to the point where I root for the Jays to face lefties now.
Joe - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#444544) #
Replying to a comment from the old thread:
I know the elderly take a little more time to heal up, but you'd think he would get over a rolled ankle by now. No?
I rolled over my ankle (pretty badly) on my 30th birthday and it took six months to heal. Now, athletes aren't overweight software developers, but it can take a little while, yeah. :(
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#444545) #

Blue Jays manager John Schneider says Jordan Romano & Erik Swanson will be activated ďsoonĒ at which point Romano will close again. Sounds like the plan may be for tomorrow.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) April 15, 2024
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#444546) #
Kirk has been bad but a) it's tiny sample and b) he had a good game last time out. Kirk's not gonna get mostly benched just because jansen is up. Especially since jansen is super streaky in his own right.
Ryan Day - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#444547) #
According to Arden Zwelling, Votto was hitting off a tee & doing defensive work as of April 8. That presumably means the ankle isn't too bad, so maybe we'll see a minor league assignment in the near future.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#444548) #
If it weren't dead already, the idea that players looking good in spring portends good things in the regular season definitely would have taken a further hit with this year's Jays.
Magpie - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#444549) #
I rolled over my ankle (pretty badly) on my 30th birthday

My own bitter, bitter experience is that the more often you roll your ankle, the quicker it "heals". But the first time you do it, it takes forever to stop hurting. It took about two months the first time I did in my right one when I was about 20, and about the same amount of time the first time I did it to my left ankle when I was about 32. (Tennis injuries!) But after repeated abuse, I could roll my ankle, scream in pain, hobble for half an hour, and be fine the next day.
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#444550) #
Bichette, ugh
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#444551) #
now that's an annoying 1st inning.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#444552) #
Is it any wonder why this team struggles to score runs.
Eephus - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#444553) #
Bo, what are you doing. Youíre usually better than that.
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#444554) #
Werenít they supposed to clean up the baserunning after the 2023 postseason?
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#444555) #
That just cannot happen. A right handed pitcher with no clue where the ball is going and you get picked off first. It's little league stuff with these guys sometimes.
Eephus - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#444556) #
My own bitter, bitter experience is that the more often you roll your ankle, the quicker it "heals". But the first time you do it, it takes forever to stop hurting. It took about two months the first time I did in my right one when I was about 20, and about the same amount of time the first time I did it to my left ankle when I was about 32. (Tennis injuries!) But after repeated abuse, I could roll my ankle, scream in pain, hobble for half an hour, and be fine the next day.

I can definitely relate (does it run in the family? Gee thanks). Thankfully I haven't had any serious ankle injuries in my mid-30s, despite spending most of my working time on my feet and playing an unreasonable amount of softball/hardball for teams the past few summers.

But! For whatever random cruel reason, back in the mid-2010s (my late 20s) I'd probably sprain or twist my ankle once every summer. Twice even. One time I rolled it so badly playing basketball I couldn't even walk home (bless the presence of a bicycle... my foot doubled in size by the swelling within minutes).

Hopefully I'm not jinxing myself. I do prefer walking via normal, comfortable methods. Besides, most of my 30s maladies are arm related... stay away from my lower body, injury misfortune!        
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#444557) #
Moment of truth for the manager's decision to start Varsho over Schneider tonight.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#444558) #
and with a wild pitcher Varsho can't stop himself from swinging at the first pitch, high.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#444559) #
It is actually ridiculous how bad Gil's control is.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#444560) #
...but to his credit he corrects himself and lays off 4 pretty close high pitches to earn the walk. I think at least one of them actually caught a touch of the zone but very tough for the ump to call that one.
Eephus - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#444561) #
As far as healing quickly... aside from that terrible basketball tale I did find my ankle would heal more quickly each time in those days I was injuring it consistently. Sort of a muscle memory both knowing how to treat/tender a wounded body part, and a familiarity with the pain.

It still sucked, and would of course hobble me for multiple days. Now that it has been many years since I sprained an ankle, I'm rather terrified how it'll knock me down when/if it happens again. Back to baseball, nothing to see here. 
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#444562) #
oh man the ump bailed him out.

come on Falefa hang in there.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#444563) #
Yeah Buck that's right. Expand the zone when the guy throws 80% balls. Good choice of words there.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#444564) #
nobody be a hero. keep taking these walks.
Eephus - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#444565) #
I will say, heís at best a league average bat but IKF isnít completely clueless as a hitter. I like his swing when heís going the other way (as I prefer with most guys). Heís had good at bats.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#444566) #
Good God that was a horrible at bat from Kiermaier.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#444567) #
Why did everyone start hacking?
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#444568) #
Kirk you speed demon. way to hustle.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#444569) #
What is going on with this team? What was Varsho thinking? There are just no words. Awful, awful baseball.
Eephus - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#444570) #
Yeah Kevin is fighting it isnít he. You start pressing, you start expanding the zone.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#444571) #
another baserunning error.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#444572) #
Hero ball again.
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#444573) #
Horrible baseball to come away with only two runs after that meltdown by Gil. Fail.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#444574) #
5 walks on 26 balls thrown by Gil thru the first 8 batters and the jays only score 2.
Ducey - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#444575) #
Jesus Murphy these guys are hard to watch.
TomTheTerminator - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#444576) #
It's insane. KK and Varsho let Gil off the hook. KK with an OPS+ of 17 and he's up there hacking away at collarbone-level pitches against a guy with no control.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#444577) #
It's taken a massive number of mental errors to only be up 2-1 in this game. At some point, you just have to accept that this team is: a) poorly managed; b) full of players that just don't get it; or c) both. Last year's team was the worst baserunning team in Jays' history and this looks to be the same.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#444578) #
The Yankees are excellent two strike hitters.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#444579) #
How about benching players for bone headed plays?
Eephus - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#444580) #
Hmmmm. Yeah this team just doesnít play solid fundamental baseball do they. Shocked Varsho didnít try to scoreÖ and heís one of the hustle guys we like! He canít hit a damn lickÖ so he kinda has to.

Astonishing how consistently terrible their approach at the plate is, all around. Itís confounding. I donít understand how a team can be so solid on one side of the ball, and just so infuriatingly clueless on the other. Genuinely bizzare.
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#444581) #
The Blue Jays seem incapable of addressing these issues, perhaps for the reason uglyone mentioned the other day (management is composed of a bunch of middle managers who lack authority). No matter how many costly blunders are made, nothing changes and everyone in management keeps offering the same platitudes.
SK in NJ - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#444582) #
ď At some point, you just have to accept that this team is: a) poorly managed; b) full of players that just don't get it; or c) both.Ē

Itís definitely both. Iím not sure how the FO saw what happened in 2023 and decided to bring everyone back. Completely unacceptable to only score 2 runs in that inning but not surprising.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#444583) #
What was the longest most sustained hot streak a Blue Jays hitter has gone on the last two seasons? Was it Bo in September 2022? I'm genuinely at a loss.

Why are we trying to steal bases when the guy has literally walked seven guys?
electric carrot - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#444584) #
What was Varsho thinking?

Ummm ... Varsho walked.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#444585) #
Well to try to bring some positivity to this - I think that's Kirk's seventh straight on base through hit or walk.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#444586) #
He failed to score on a ground ball in the hole between short and third. Even if he waited for the third baseman to grab it (which he shouldn't.. it was a pretty easy ball to read at field level..the defense was playing back) he should have scored easily. The third baseman even had to throw across his body.

He just froze.
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#444587) #
All the earlier aggravation notwithstanding, that was a clutch hit by Kirk.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#444588) #
Varsho's horrible baserunning was the cause of that comment I'm pretty sure.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#444589) #
Positives: The pitching and defense on this team is superb and fun to watch. Lord knows that's why most of us are still here. We sure ain't here to watch Vladdy and Bo both hit below .200.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#444590) #
Sorry. Bo's hitting .227. Everything's fine guys.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#444591) #
Gausman's a bit (but not too) worrying, but the pitching looks realgud again, especially with Romano/Swanson coming back tommorrow, and the nice debut from Yariel.

but man it's just impossible not to feel this offense is less than the sum of their parts. they'll never not be frustrating.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#444592) #
wake up Ump that was an obvious brutal call.


get yourself a better angle next time.
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#444593) #
So bad. Guerrero Jr. walks, Gil is at 90 pitches in the fifth inning with none out, and Bichette swings at the *first pitch* and grounds into a DP.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#444594) #
The fact the Blue Jays are going to let a guy who was this erratic make it through five innings is just crazy bad.
Ducey - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#444595) #
I'm getting to the point where if they traded Bo I wouldn't be upset.

The SP is near his pitch count, just walk Vlad and he goes after crap on the first pitch.

And it happens year after year.
Eephus - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#444596) #
As Iíve said far too oftenÖ and Iím sick of doing so: constantly bad approaches. We couldíve chased Gil many innings agoÖ still a close game. It drives me completely bonkers. These good pitchers deserve a lineup with at least half a clue.
Glevin - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#444597) #
This board is so absurdly negative, it's getting hard to be on here. Jays winning 3-1, playing overall decently this season with plenty of room to improve and comments here are as if they are the White Sox. Just unrelenting negativity.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#444598) #
https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1780035291442499912
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#444599) #
Glevin, have you been watching this game?

And I assure you, if this team were trying to lose, like the White Sox are, the tenor would be different.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#444600) #
Oh come on, let him finish the inning guys.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#444601) #
helluvan outing there, Big Chris. His season is all the way back on track now. That was great.

now it's time for our two bullpen lefties to get THEIR seasons back on track.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#444602) #
two tricky fly balls but good baby steps from mayza the last couple outings.
92-93 - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#444603) #
Funny to read this thread - the radio broadcast thought Varsho wouldíve been dead meat had he broken for home.

Leroux has been all over Gilís control all game. He said you rarely see a P bouncing his fastball in front of the plate like Gil does. Sounds like they really let him and the Yankees tired bullpen off the hook tonight.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#444604) #
vladdy's early plate discipline drying up already.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#444605) #
oh wait he has two walks tonight scratch that last comment.

that horrible last swing triggered me.
Ducey - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#444606) #
Understandably
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#444607) #
I don't know. It was kind of a weirdly struck ball...but even if Varsho freezes, with his speed by the time the third baseman gathered and threw out Springer, with his speed, he would have/should have scored.

And the defence was playing back. Unless it's a line drive or a pop up or a fly ball to the outfield, you should be going.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#444608) #
nice to see Green's velo steadily creep up that inning.

4-seamers in order:

* 94.7
* 94.7
* 94.8
* 95.2
* 95.1
* 95.2
* 95.4
* 95.6
* 96.5
* 96.1
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#444609) #
ah that last one was actually 95.1 but the others are all right.
uglyone - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#444610) #
it'll take ages for him to earn my trust but Yimi has been nails to start this year.

nice win.
Nigel - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#444611) #
The pitching was fantastic tonight - nice win. The offence made that a closer game than it should have been but cíest la vie. As for Leroux saying Varsho made the right play - no way. If you want to be charitable you would say that Varsho misread the hit ball and/or where the defense was playing, froze as a consequence and then didnít compound his problem by breaking way too late for home. If you want to be charitable. Otherwise he just misread the play and should have scored.
greenfrog - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#444612) #
Agreed, nice win against the division leader.

Yimi is throwing a full MPH harder on average than in any previous season. Thatís impressive at age 33 (Iím guessing not sustainable though).
John Northey - Monday, April 15 2024 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#444613) #
I was one of many who wanted Garcia gone to create room in the pen and budget but it does seem I was wrong. I love when the Jays do something I disagree with and it works out.

IKF vs Chapman is looking like that too. IKF is easily as good as Chapman with the glove, and wRC+ wise it is IKF 126 Chapman 65 so far. Who would've thunk?
Michael - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 02:52 AM EDT (#444614) #
The issue with Varsho running is that it is such a clear play to break for the plate even if there is a high chance of being thrown out because the cases are

1. If the guy on 2nd advances to 3rd on the throw home you have the same number of outs and 1st and 3rd instead of 2nd and 3rd if you don't try.

2. Even if the guy on 2nd doesn't advance and you get thrown out you are looking at 1st and 2nd with the same outs rather than 2nd and 3rd. That isn't nothing, but it isn't the end of the world.

3. "Normal case" is they throw out the guy on 1st and you score and the guy from 2nd goes to 3rd on the throw and now you are guy on 3rd and run in rather than guys on 2nd and 3rd and no run in.

4. Best case is they try for the play at the plate but you are safe and now you get the run, runners on 1st and 3rd and one less out than the 2nd and 3rd with no run and one more out.

There was one out when the ground ball was hit so the expected run outcome of the four cases are:

1. 1st and 3rd with 2 outs (0.471) versus 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (0.570) so 1 counts as -0.099 compared to not trying.

2. 1st and 2nd with 2 outs (0.433) versus 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (0.570) so 2 counts as -0.137 compared to not trying.

3. 3rd with 2 outs and a run in is (1.413) versus 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (0.570) so 3 counts as +0.843 compared to not trying (and even if runner didn't advance that would be 1.305 so +0.733)

4. 1st and 3rd with a run in and only 1 out is (2.140) versus 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (0.570) so that is a full +1.570 compared to not trying.

So even if you stipulate that they'll throw him out 80% of the time, half of which the runner from 2nd goes to 3rd, and 10% of the time they'll try to throw him out but he scores, and 10% of the time they concede and just go for the out at 1st you are looking at:

40% * -0.099 (out at home, 1st and 3rd) + 40% * -0.137 (out at home, 1st and 2nd) + 10% * +0.843 (concede run, out at first) + 10% of 1.570 (try for out at home and fail)

== +0.1469 runs

So even if he's thrown out 80% of the time going home, it is still a very good play to do. If they concede more or he's safe more, it is just even better of a play. Even if you turn all of the best outcome (the safe at the plate) into concede the run (so 80% out at home, half runner advances to 3rd) and 20% sure out at 1st run score, runner advances that works out to 0.0742 so that is still positive even if they throw him out 80% of the time and concede with the play at 1st the other 20% of the time.

Note all the run expectancy numbers are using https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/ it changes slightly obviously depending on the pitchers, hitters, baserunners actually in play, but this isn't a close decision, this is as close to an obvious and free option - made even more obvious by the defense playing back and conceding the run in theory - in practice the delay might mean they go home but that still might mean the best outcome (try for the out and fail).
mathesond - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 02:59 AM EDT (#444615) #
Maybe when he was running the probability percentages in his head, his CPU froze?
Jonny German - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 05:20 AM EDT (#444616) #
Trevor Richards appeared in 7 of the first 12 games, literally pitching every other day. But he hasn't appeard in any of the next 5, sitting on the bench for a week. There haven't been any spots in those 5 games that screamed Richards over whoever else pitched, but it does make me wonder if putting him on the IL is being considered to open a spot for Romano or Swanson.

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#444617) #
To these eyes, it looked like Varsho would've been thrown out at the plate.
rikley - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#444618) #
Glevin...I couldn't agree more about this site getting crazy negative. I actually read some of the comments to this thread before knowing the final score of the game and I honestly assumed the Jays were getting blown out by the Yankees!
soupman - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#444619) #
Varsho looked dead to rights at home. To me the bigger blunder was Bichette getting picked off. It looked like Gil would walk in runs (which he did the next inning), and he took the bat out of the hand of a guy that (predictably according to the baseball deities) got a hit immediately when he came back to the plate. The Jays make way too many of these types of mental errors - since they are basically hoping to compete for a wildcard as a ceiling, management would do well to minimize the number of game-breaking errors committed between the collar and cap.
Ducey - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#444620) #
I was part of the negative yesterday. I was having flashbacks to last year. Bases loaded and nobody out with a pitcher that cant hit the strike zone. Got to do better than that.

I have to wonder that in the same way that pitchers are chasing velocity, the hitters seem to be chasing EV rather than just getting the bat on the ball.

On the positive, how about IKF? I dont know if he will hit better than Chapman this year (I am guessing it will be closer than people were thinking), but his defense is really fun to watch. He anticipates really well. Add in the salary difference, the 4th round pick, more playing time at 3B for Clement, and I am happy not to watch Chapman strike out all year.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#444621) #
With Romano and Swanson likely being activated, I'm wondering if the Jays can interest Houston in White. They're desperate for arms right now. They're promoting a pitcher from AAA with a 12.00 ERA.

You won't get much for him but maybe a low-level lottery ticket.

Or a bigger deal for someone like Pearson or Richards.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#444622) #
i'm sorry the first couple innings last night definitely deserved negativity.

and then the game got better, and more positive.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#444623) #
After Kirk got demoted on Batter's Box, he went 4/9 with 3 BB and 2 K. It should be good for his body having Jansen back around.

There are actually 5 teams with a worse wOBA from their C position, which is remarkable because Kirk's double yesterday was the Jays' first XBH. The Yankees are one of the 5.
mathesond - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#444624) #
"i'm sorry the first couple innings last night definitely deserved negativity."

Gosh, I thought you of all people would be aware of the dangers inherent in small sample sizes.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#444625) #
They got lucky last night. But they may still feel the impacts over the next two games. They could have dealt a huge blow to the Yankees if they had knocked Gil out and gotten into the bullpen early. All their bullpen arms are now available and rested save for one in Marinaccio (Santana only went an inning so he's likely fine but is also a low-leverage arm).

Rodon and Stroman have a good chance at buzzsawing through the Jays lineup given its struggles and the park's power suppression.

Frankly, I'd give Vladdy a day off and let Vogelbach play.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#444626) #
"Gosh, I thought you of all people would be aware of the dangers inherent in small sample sizes."

if we ignored all small samples, nobody would make any game comments at all!
mathesond - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#444627) #
Well, that might reduce the negativity!
Eephus - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#444628) #
Well, if I may pour in some positivity... I think we can all agree this is a pitching staff that most nights will give the team a chance to win. And we haven't even seen Gausman as himself yet either. All things considered, these first couple weeks could've been a heckava lot worse. 

It's a confusing blend of optimism and frustration from me. Frustimism? Optimration? Maybe I need to go get some fresh air...
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#444629) #
It's not surprising that bad plays get more heat and discussion in comments here (and elsewhere).

I tend to make a distinction between bad plays and bone-headed plays. I think Varsho should have broken for home, but a) I think Varsho might not have read off the bat that it wouldn't carry to an infielder on the fly; and b) I don't expect runners to have a perfect understanding of the base/out state. So a poor play, but understandable, and I wouldn't hold it against him very much.

On the bone-headed side of things, getting picked off 1B with an erratic pitcher on the mound, a selective hitter at the plate, and when you're the trailing runner is terrible in every dimension.

Similarly, KK swinging at three fastballs above the zone after three straight walks is mind-blowingly poor decision-making.

Cracka - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#444630) #
Mitch White has been DFA'ed and Nate Pearson has been optioned to make room for Romano and Swanson. I said this yesterday, but I don't see the need to rush both guys back on the roster today, especially after neither had successfully completed a full inning during their rehab stints. I expect White to be claimed but I think the Pearson is the bigger loss in the short-term - at least right now, he's a more reliable option than Romano and Swanson and certainly doesn't "deserve" a demotion.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#444631) #
I imagine Pearson will be back up over Francis soon enough.

maybe as soon as after Yariel's next start.
Jonny German - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#444632) #
I get the argument for DFAing White, but optioning Pearson is a bad move. Cabrera has been terrible, lefthandedness is not enough to keep him over Pearson.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#444633) #
glad they cut bait on white for sure.

especially after that sudden "velocity spike" proved to be a mirage.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#444634) #
I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say there isn't a single team in the league who would have chosen Cabrera over Pearson. Both have options, and Cabrera aside from 2021 has been a sub replacement level reliever. Is throwing with your left hand in the 3 batter minimum era really that important? I'm sure Pearson will be back up at some point, but just a bad look in general when you have two relievers with options and choose to keep the inferior one and send down the one who has been good.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#444635) #
Past Calendar Year

* Cabrera 63gms, 0.9ip/gm, 108era-, 107fip-, 110xfip-, 0.1war, 0.1war/65gms
* Pearson 41gms, 1.2ip/gm, 100era-, 102fip-, 111xfip-, 0.1war, 0.1war/65gms
* Francis 23gms, 2.0ip/gm, 101era-, 108fip-, 95xfip-, 0.1war, 0.3war/65gms



close enough overall, and I imagine Cabrera still has the best numbers vLHH over that time, probably by a good margin.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#444636) #
I kind of get it. So far in his career, Pearson has huge R/L splits, especially so this year (1.11 xFIP against RHB, 6.15 xFIP against LHB). Cabrera hasn't been great overall, but he has been better against LHB than Pearson. He might have greatly utility than Pearson at the moment, since the Jays currently have lots of quality RH relievers.

In any event, having too many good relievers is a nice problem to have.
Glevin - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#444637) #
Not worried about Pearson. Guys will get hurt and he'll be up soon. Personally I would have sent down or ILd Mayza I think whose fastball is way down and hasn't looked very good.
Dewey - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#444638) #
Ken Holtzman (78), Whitey Herzog (92), and Carl Erskine (97) have died in recent days.

Timor mortis conturbat me.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#444639) #
I thought that in Pearson's last outing he might have looked the best that I have ever seen him. So, I do find it odd that he was optioned. However, if the option is merely to allow a multi inning reliever to stick around for the next week or two then I can sort of understand the choice. I'm also not sure that Cabrera is the second left right now - Mayza does not look good at all.

As for the comments about negativity, its a very subjective thing and I understand that each person will have their own take on things and would want to see the discussion have one flavour or the other. For me, I've been on here since the days of Coach primarily because the discussion is always civilized (a staggering achievement for this community in today's social media age); generally tending to be balanced and, just as importantly, analytically focused. On the offensive side of things last night the first 3 innings were pretty poorly played. It was actually a little hard to watch in parts. I think it was ripe for negative comments.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#444640) #
Romano and Swanson have to provide good pitching almost immediately to justify the rushed moves. I guess Garcia and Green have their roles slightly altered. Rodriguez and Francis are still basically unproven. Gausman needs up to 3 more starts to get fully ready. We will see if Manoah actually earns his way back up. He looked better in his last start with good velo but the control is not yet there. Whoever evaluated the pitching movement will be proven smart or not. But we have a lot of pitching depth at the moment.

Time for our hitting stars to get hot.
scottt - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#444641) #
Bo's caught stealing was bad.
Varsho not scoring depends on what he was told to do.
Against a bad pitcher, there's no reason to go on contact.
The Yankees might have been conceding the run or not.

There's no way Boone would have used one off his good pitchers if Gil had been knocked out early.
Nothing was lost there. The game was just closer than it needed to be.

Nigel - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#444643) #
Thumbs up on the line-up today. Varsho should certainly play over KK whenever there is currently a choice.

A game like today is definitely where having two DH only bats comes into play. If you had another RH OF you would have more flexibility about your initial line-up choices and to play match-ups more readily in late game situations.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#444644) #
Has any number-one prospect had a worse start to their major league career than Jackson Holliday. He's now up to 20 ABs, with one single and eleven strikeouts. I'm sure he'll eventually be good, but gosh.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#444645) #
love that patience from vladdy. stick with it please.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#444647) #
Great AB by Bo.
Gerry - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#444648) #
"I only drink (whiskey) on the day I pitch" - Yusei Kikuchi.

And to be clear he drinks it after the game, not before.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#444649) #
nice throw, davis.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#444650) #
Defense letting Kikuchi down in this inning.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#444651) #
I have to drink on the days Kikutchi pitches as well.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#444652) #
Keep making Rodon throw pitches. Donít let him off easy.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#444653) #
Trust this process, vladdy. even if you don't get dingers right away. this is the way.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#444654) #
Kikuchi is pitching great this season. This game should probably be something like 3-0 or 4-0 Blue Jays right now.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#444655) #
Kikutchi has been really good so far. No doubt. It's still early but Clement really looks like a guy who can do a decent number of good things offensively.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#444656) #
Bo's error made it moot, but Jansen deserved an error for that play at the plate.

Not piling on Gil last night and being forced to use Mayza/Green/Garcia will have an immediate effect tonight.

Attaboy Vladdy!
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#444657) #
good result for vladdy.

and both pitches were strikes so i can't get too upset.

but i don't love hacking on the first two pitches against a pitcher struggling so badly with his command.

92-93 - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#444658) #
You want him to take a strike and fall behind instead? Bo swinging at two bad pitches with the bases loaded in the 3rd and then watching strike 3 go by was much worse.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#444659) #
yes Bo was worse.

and no i wouldn't have minded seeing vlad take a strike there. especially on that breaking ball.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#444660) #
The Blue Jays desperately needed a hit in that situation. And Vladdy delivered. He's had a good game at the plate.

Beautiful play in the field by IKF and Kikuchi to get the first out in T5 -- an important out.
Eephus - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#444661) #
I am hoping this Mirror Universe version of Danny Jansen reverses his injury luck.
Eephus - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#444662) #
Hmmm. Sending the really old guy on a hit and run, while admirably unexpectedÖ mightíve been ambitious.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#444663) #
Yusei has thrown some explosive fastballs tonight, freezing batters on called strike three (most recently Stanton).

uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#444664) #
fantastic stuff from kikuchi. shots on me.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#444665) #
Clement doing everything he can on the field to prove heís a major-league ballplayer. Brilliant slide on that play.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#444666) #
Varsho had no shot in that AB. Clement looks more likely to be a capable hitter than Schneider to me.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#444667) #
I like the aggressiveness with a 3-1 lead, even with Turner. Got them a precious 4th run there.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#444668) #
That was a base running clinic by Clement.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#444669) #
Great job by Richards to bear down and limit the damage to two runs. That inning could have unravelled on the Blue Jays with Soto and Judge due up next.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#444670) #
I would switch to Varsho in left field and KK in center field for the 8th and 9th innings.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#444671) #
Say the score stays 5-3. Do you use Romano or Green T9?
92-93 - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#444672) #
Definitely Green, but the radio broadcast said earlier that Schneider will be using Romano in the 9th right away.
mathesond - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#444673) #
I found it amusing that Buck & Dan talked about just that, greenfrog, and decided that perhaps the thinking was to keep Schneider's bat in the game, just in case. But perhaps KK's defense would negate needing Davis' bat!
Nigel - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#444674) #
Iíll admit I didnít love Garciaís option vesting last year. Wrong. Heís been lights out. Good managing by Schneider to use his best reliever against that part of the Yankees lineup.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#444675) #
vladdy staying patient all the way through. very nice.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#444676) #
Romano is rusty. Fingers crossed he can scrape his way out of this jam. Weíre gonna see a lot of sliders I think.
James W - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#444677) #
Safe to breathe yet?
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#444678) #
just like they drew it up.

nice win.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#444679) #
Phew. The Jays win this series and are off to a 6-2 start at home, and 4-6 on the road vs. 3 good teams in TB/HOU/NYY. Despite some unrealistic expectations, that's a solid start for this club.

And "they are who we thought they were".
uglyone - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#444680) #
this is the yanks' first series loss of the year.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#444681) #
And the first time the Jays have won a series against them in Toronto since 2019.
James W - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#444682) #
8 home games: 5 HR hit, 8 HR allowed.
10 road games: 9 HR hit, 19 HR allowed.

Just a small sample, or will it continue to be really hard to hit homers at Skydome again this year?
Gerry - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#444683) #
The Varsho catch was good but Ernie Clement made a very good play too in the ninth.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#444684) #
Would Kikuchi agree to an extension for a couple of more years, along the lines of the Chris Sale (Atlanta) extension? Might be worth considering.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 16 2024 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#444685) #
Kikuchi has looked excellent this season. Also, Clement is looking like a really good utility player. Good contact ability, speed, and defense.

Nice win tonight.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#444686) #
It's worth noting that, if you looked just at the advanced metrics, you'd think that Vlad would be off to a great start to the season. Overall, his xwOBA was .396 entering today. He's swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than ever, and hence walking more; his average exit velocity nearly where it was in 2021 and is 97th percentile, and his hard-hit rate is higher than his 2021 rate; he's hitting more line drives and few pop-ups.

On a non-quantitative level, I think the Vlad of a year or two ago would be frustrated at the lack of results over the first couple weeks and would have started pressing; this year Vlad's plate discipline seems to be, if anything, getting better right now.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#444687) #
the other thing is that either league wide offense is down or there has been some jays-specific park effects or something because at the moment vladdy has a 118wrc+ (which adjusts for league offense and park effects and such), which is actually pretty decent.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#444688) #
the league wide slash line was .244/.317.411 last year and is .243/.318/.388 so far this year. ISO is down from .167 to .146. Some of the decline in power might be due to the cooler spring weather.
Waveburner - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 01:39 AM EDT (#444689) #
Couple of rough defensive plays early from Bo and Jansen, but from that point on the defense was just fantastic all around.

Not really a fan of rehabbing Romano in the Majors with a slim 2 run lead. Thankfully they weren't burned.

I'm becoming a big fan of Ernie Clement. I think the Jays have found a good player out of nowhere. Almost feels wrong that he's not in a Rays jersey.
Michael - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#444690) #
I watched the condensed game and while there were a few things not to like (the Bo error, the Jansen missed catch and tag) there were lots and lots of things that looked really good.

Kikuchi looked amazingly good. Some really nice defense on the tip around ground ball, on Schneider in lf, and Varsho too. The generally good baserunning avoiding the tag and causing trouble on the 1st and 3rd steal. Even if Vlad isn't hitting the HR the good eye and the hard squared up contact back up the middle is a good sign. And more generally just seemed a fun game.

Keep it going with Gausman versus Stroman for the sweep!
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#444691) #
One thing I liked about yesterday's game was Kikuchi's confidence level. You could see it in his body language -- relaxed, good tempo, a bit of swagger. If he missed his location, no big deal. He was right back on his game on the next pitch. He fielded well, too.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#444692) #
Lets hope things go well this afternoon (hate weekday afternoon games).  Lucky with the Jansen error (yeah, not officially one, but it damn well was one), and Romano being shaky to still pull it off.  Gotta keep that perfect record when Schneider starts going (8-0 when he starts, 0-6 when he comes in late 2-2 when he doesn't play)

The stats are weird right now - BR has Vogelbach at an OPS+ of 101 with a 662 OPS. Last year Springer was at 102 with a 732 OPS, in 2022 Espinal was at 99 with a 692, in 2021 Kirk was closest to 100 at 105 with a 764 OPS.  Clearly offense is down right now.  Is it an April thing?  Last year in April Kiermaier has a 102 sOPS+ (OPS+ adjusted to just those playing in that split) with an OPS of 732 (matching Springer's 102 732 for all of 2023) which suggests it shouldn't be the time of year.

Ah well, it is early and things always are weird in April - last year remember Chapman and his 215 sOPS+ (1.152 OPS)? Or how Biggio forgot which end of the bat to use with his sOPS+ of 18 (428 OPS)?  This year Biggio has a 142 OPS+ (819 OPS) vs Chapman's 86 (667 OPS).

Ex-Jays vs replacements...
  • Chapman 0.7 bWAR 86 OPS+ (his defense is 'wow' again at 0.5 dWAR already) vs IKF: 0.6 bWAR with a 109 OPS+ and great D (0.3 dWAR)
  • Merrifield -0.3 bWAR -22 OPS+ (ugh) vs Schneider 0.1 bWAR 119 OPS+
  • Belt unsigned vs Turner 198 OPS+ 0.8 bWAR
  • Espinal -0.3 bWAR, 10 OPS+ vs Clement 0.5 bWAR 118 OPS+
So for offense I'd say the Jays upgraded across the board there (Chapman vs IKF a virtual tie despite IKF hitting far better than Chapman thanks to defensive stats).  I didn't agree with everything done by Atkins but hard to argue with those early returns.  The only other real change is Ryu (in Korea) vs Francis (11.81 ERA) & RodrŪguez (3 2/3 IP 1 ER) - combined 14 1/3 IP 15 ER - ugh, but looking good for Rodriguez off his tiny tiny sample size.  We'll see.  Plus Manoah is still here, but zero pressure on him right now.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#444693) #
Teoscar Hernandez is hitting .286/.337/.532 for the Dodgers with 14r 5hr 18rbi. It's nice hitting behind 4 guys with OBPs over .385+.

Not to be outdone out west, Lourdes Gurriel is hitting .278/.350/.528 in Arizona with 14r 5hr 20rbi.

"RBI Machine" Justin Turner leads the Jays with 9 ribbies.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#444694) #
Offense is definitely down this year. Last year through this date the league-wide slash line was .249/.324/.406. Right now it's .242/.318/.387. So it's not just the time of the year.
Ducey - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#444695) #
It will be interesting to see what the Jays get, if anything for White.

That trade is not looking good. Frasso is the Dodgers #2 prospect (although he is out after labrum surgery). Moises Brito is 6'6" LHP who was very good in the Arizona League last year - still only 20.

The Jays got White and Alex de Jesus. de Jesus is the Jays 23rd best prospect per MLB.com. He was the first star yesterday in the Batter's Box minor league thread.

So there's that.

Polite Nate - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#444696) #
So I have a purely anecdotal theory about park effects.

I was at a game last year, I think in May, sitting in LF near the new raised bullpen. It was a fairly sunny and nice day. But sitting there I was absolutely freezing my butt off in the shade. It was so bad I had to go to the Jays shop midgame and buy a sweater to wear for the rest of the game. The reason it was so cold was this icy breeze I could feel blowing in from the gates outside.

Anyway, I ain't no scientician but ever since that day I'm convinced that the renovations have done something to the air circulation patterns in there and balls just aren't carrying the way they used to.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#444697) #
I sit behind home plate and the climate is definitely cooler in the dome than in the past. I went to the outfield to see the new "The Catch" bar and I felt a massive air breeze/push toward the OF as well.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#444698) #
I'll say I like Alex De Jesus much more than as our 23rd prospect. I have him as borderline top 10 in the system. that being said, it's a bad system so it's not saying much.


agreed on Kikuchi's body language - there were a couple of misses where he didn't miss by much and you could tell he knew they were great pitches anyways, and came back with even better ones.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#444699) #
I wonder if Verdugoís double off Romano (with Torres on base) would have been a two-run home run prior to the Rogers Centre renos.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#444701) #
Velo and movement appear to be better so far for Gausman.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#444702) #
KK's should have to earn his way back in the lineup. But if he doesn't, he's a beauty 4th OF.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#444703) #
Big mistake by Stroman to Varsho. And Daulton crushed it. Great to see.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#444704) #
Would have liked to have seen a better approach from Springer and Vladdy there. They both swung at a couple of pitchers pitches in their at bats
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#444705) #
Buffalo won their game on a 469-foot grand slam from Orelvis in the 10th inning.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#444706) #
Also. This home plate umpire is being crazy generous to Stroman.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#444707) #
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#444708) #
They are going to need at least 4 innings from the pen today it will be interesting to see who gets those innings. Green will get one of them I'm sure but after that ...
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#444709) #
you'd think swanson would get one for sure at least.

romano maybe good to go if it's close.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#444710) #
Yankees catcher Austin Wells is setting the target extremely wide of the strike-zone. The home plate umpire Ryan Wills has shifted the zone accordingly.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#444711) #
Maybe also Richards for an inningÖ?
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#444712) #
Swanson and Mayza seem likely candidates but that feels fraught with risk.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#444713) #
not all the way back for Gausman but almost there. very nice outing against a tough lineup without his best stuff/command.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#444714) #
Judging by where they are in the Yankees lineup - maybe Swanson 6th, Mayza 7th, Green 8th, Romano 9th is the theoretical plan. Mike Tyson's note about "plans" always being in play of course.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#444715) #
Agree Uglyone. Great result today considering previous starts. Hopefully Gausman can keep building up. The positive trend is a great sign.

Re the graph you posted, I see 5 egregious calls. I know some are more forgiving of the human element, but stuff like this is way outside an acceptable margin of error for me.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#444716) #
The home plate ump is going to have a very bad ump scorecard.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#444717) #
Ernie Clement has excellent bat to ball skills, but not on high fastballs. He needs to learn to lay off those pitches.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#444718) #
Agreed Gerry and just continuing the theme that the Jays, more often than not, just get crazy aggressive trying to "do damage" in those situations. So far, totally wrong on my prediction for bullpen usage but I do wonder if Mayza isn't LH #2 at the moment (until he starts looking better).
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#444719) #
Varsho with 2 home runs today. It goes without saying but if he can be around league average with the bat, then it would be huge for the Jays.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#444720) #
Donít look now, but Varsho has the third highest OPS on the team, just a bit behind Biggio
Gerry - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#444721) #
Didn't someone on here want Varsho to be sent to the minors last week?
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#444722) #
"Didn't someone on here want Varsho to be sent to the minors last week?"

I was hacked.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#444723) #
Varsho is now outhitting Moreno. Best trade ever.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#444724) #
He's not outhitting Gurriel:)
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#444725) #
Bichette got a beneficial call in his SF AB, and Cabrera did too in that Judge AB. Things evening out a bit.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#444726) #
Cabrera for 2 innings was pretty bold. Full credit to Schneider for his pen choices this series.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#444727) #
I've never had major problems with Schneider's use of the bullpen - outside of last year's wild card series, that is. Montoyo managed himself into major errors in bullpen usage, and Schneider hasn't done that. I actually think he's getting a little more flexible in his usage, and that's a good thing.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#444728) #
I was thinking (before the home run) that I would prefer Green here. I like Swanson, but heís a feel pitcher and might need a lower-leverage outing or two to get tuned up.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#444729) #
Oh man, after complimenting his choices:(. Swanson in the 9th? Really?
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#444730) #
this would be an unfortunate way to lose the sweep.
James W - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#444731) #
Well at least they let Swanson get an out, so he has an ERA. (But also maybe pitchers should be able to finish an inning in AAA before trying to finish a game in the majors.)
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#444732) #
Green has to be injured?
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#444733) #
Pick your poison: Soto or Judge.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#444734) #
oh man if the ump bails us out here that is high comedy.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#444735) #
I'll reserve judgement until its known who was available but, as I said 4 innings ago, a Swanson/Mayza combo didn't look ideal:( Not exactly hard to see.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#444736) #
Mayza chickened out on the 3-2 pitch to Soto. And then he overly nibbled to Judge after getting ahead of him 1-2. They are both great hitters, but you still have to be aggressive as a pitcher.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#444737) #
that, on the other hand, was not high comedy.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#444738) #
you'd think that while he was scared to bring in Francis to face Judge, he would have been maybe even eager to bring Pearson in to face him.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#444739) #
They were incredibly fortunate that the same thing didn't happen last night.
James W - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#444740) #
IT WAS 4-1!!! (Sorry, just getting ready for Toronto playoff hockey season.)
James W - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#444741) #
Angel Hernandez thinks this guy is doing a great job!
Magpie - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#444742) #
Aw. That would have been past-a-diving-Jeter.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#444743) #
Schneider getting himself tossed about seven innings too late.
Polite Nate - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#444744) #
Assuming Green was unavailable I have no problem with the bullpen usage. Just like Romano being shaky yesterday, if Swanson wasn't ready then he wouldn't be on the roster yet.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#444745) #
If Green was unavailable, it sure would have been nice to have Pearson available in this one, either to pitch the entire ninth or at least to face Judge with the bases loaded.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#444746) #
Mayza was rushed on the 3-2 pitch to Soto, he started his delivery very late. Sotoís method of being ďalert to the pitcherĒ by 0:08 seems to slow down the P.

The only excuse for the Jays roster management is if they didnít know Green was sore when they shipped out Pearson for Romano & Swanson.

Itís hardly a surprise that not getting to Gil in game 1 ended up costing them.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#444747) #
Both Romano and Swanson did not pitch well in Buffalo. Were they ready to be recalled? Sometimes veteran major leaguers push to be recalled, I wonder if the Jays were ready to bring them back or did they force it?
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#444748) #
Does Francis have options? Seems like he could be demoted and Pearson recalled once Yariel Rodriguez is stretched out.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#444749) #
Green has shoulder soreness. The team hopes he feels better by Friday.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#444751) #
It will be interesting to see where the Blue Jays look for an offensive upgrade at the trade deadline. Three possibilities are corner outfield, third base and second base. The team could use a big bat in the middle of the lineup, someone who gets on base consistently and hits for power. But it might be hard to upgrade a roster at positions where they already have an average or slightly above-average hitter.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#444752) #
I feel like Luis Arraez is the type of player the Jays FO would put in a lab and try to clone if they could based on their love of contact and low strike outs. Could definitely see that being a deadline pickup in the very likely event that the Marlins are sellers. Though maybe they prefer going internal (Barger, Martinez, Roden).
scottt - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#444753) #
It seems obvious that Romano and Swanson wanted to be recalled as early as possible.
They needed to be on the IL 15 days, but they could have started to rehab earlier if actually ready.
There are rules against manipulating the IL, so if the player considers himself ready, there's probably not much a team can do, if that player doesn't have options.

Lots of positives in this game. 

scottt - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#444754) #
Francis has options, but the Jays might still need a long man more than another 1 inning guy.
scottt - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#444755) #
It's way to early to talk about trade deadline offensive upgrade because right now the 3 weakest position are CF, C and SS.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#444756) #
Arraez is an interesting player. The problem is that he's a poor defender and the Blue Jays already have a DH and first baseman (his former position). I don't see him as a great fit for the Blue Jays at the moment. Same thing for Pete Alonso, another player who may be on the trading block.

Mike Trout is yet another position player whose name will undoubtedly get mentioned a lot. However, he's owed a ton of money (about $35.5m per year) through his age-38 season in 2030, and he's had some recent injury issues. I can't see the Blue Jays taking that on.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#444759) #
I really questioned activating Romano and Swanson at the same time since they both looked rusty in AAA. This likely could have been avoided with Pearson in the pen instead of Swanson.

I didn't feel great about Swanson as the 8th inning guy last year - he wasn't as dominant as he was with Seattle. I'd rather see him work the 7th for now with Green/Garcia in the 8th and Romano/Garcia in the 9th.
85bluejay - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#444760) #
Activating Romano and Swanson when they had struggled in Buffalo is just gross incompetence and if they "forced" their way back up, then that's a weak front office.
Glevin - Wednesday, April 17 2024 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#444761) #
"Activating Romano and Swanson when they had struggled in Buffalo is just gross incompetence"

Didn't make sense. They don't need to have great performances if they look sharp but both pitchers had struggled. Giving them another couple of games to get things going again made sense especially with bullpen pitching well. What's the rush?
Jonny German - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 04:06 AM EDT (#444763) #
I feel like Luis Arraez is the type of player the Jays FO would put in a lab and try to clone if they could based on their love of contact and low strike outs.

Is it contact and low strikeouts they love, or defence and defensive versatility? Luis Arraez is currently leading the majors with -7 Outs Above Average, 3 worse than the next guy.
scottt - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#444765) #
I think we saw something similar when the Jays swept (I think) Boston in Fenway last year.
Story had completed his rehab but wanted to keep rehabing for a few days.

dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#444766) #
Shapiro is very involved in all baseball decisions. Due to this I don't see Atkins making a big splash for a middle of the order bat at a high cost of prospects. Shapiro wouldn't let that happen. At least not for the reason of trying to save Atkins job by making the team stronger this year.

It is possible, on the other hand, that the new stadium renovations are not increasing sales and profits as promised and then Shapiro needs to pivot and make that big trade for a middle of the order bat to save his own job. If this were to happen it would require the mix of ownership pushing for a playoff run and commitment from ownership to resign one of Vlad/Bo and other free agents to help replenish some of the prospect capital lost to acquire the big bat.

I use "prospect" loosely ... it's any young player that another team would want in a trade. So if you can get Mike Trout for Biggio, Barger, Martinez and Tiedemann then I'm counting Biggio as a prospect...just for the sake of this argument.

It's definitely not too early to talk about the trade deadline and I even bet this FO has a list of names to target which played into their plans on the free agency off season this winter. Here are the most interesting:

Ha Seong Kim
Paul Goldschmidt
Alex Bregman

Trout is the only guy I see as available who can dramatically transform this team. True cost is probably forfeiture of ability to resign Vlad or Bo or both long term as well as all prospect capital to acquire him. I view that contract as the only reason he is available and a way to keep the cost lower. Vlad and Bo will both be anchors after next year when they get their new contracts.





greenfrog - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#444767) #
Another possibility is that Orelvis (or Barger) emerges as the middle-of-the-order power bat the Blue Jays need. He would be far less expensive than a marquee acquisition and the team would get to preserve their prospect capital for the future.

I predicted 88 wins for the Blue Jays and that still feels about right to me.
bpoz - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#444768) #
All FOs should have some idea of how their team is doing 1 month before the trade deadline. At that time discussions between FOs will start to get serious. Also all FOs will know who are buyers and who are sellers. Generally teams that are out of it will be sellers. CWS & Miami quite likely.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#444770) #
Does anybody think the Angels will be a contender?
bpoz - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#444772) #
I personally think LAA will be a contender. They should be in the mix for their division and 3 WCs. Houston may be panicking.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#444773) #
Asked about requesting a trade:

ďIt hasnít even crossed my mind yet,Ē Trout told Gonzalez."

Some articles posted recently about Mets being a serious contender to acquire him this trade deadline. Acuna, Williams and Vientos for Trout is one package mentioned from a fan site.

Anthony Castrovince suggested Castellanos and Justin Crawford (#3 prospect) for Torut and mark down money.


Then again, Trout's hard hit rate is "down" this year so maybe the decline in "advanced metrics" will scare Shapiro away.
soupman - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#444774) #
the angels seem committed to giving Rendon 600 PA a year. maybe minasian learned a couple things from aa. i can't see them moving on from trout unless he forces their hands - but i still think a package that frees up that space on the roster and payroll by moving those two is what they need. they're probably going to finish 4th in their division regardless so why not sell high, create financial flexibility, and move from a top-10 pick to a top-5 pick?
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#444775) #
Without quibbling over amounts/formulas, Trout and Rendon both have significant, double digit negative value on trade simulators.

I have a very hard time seeing the Angels being a position where they can move Trout for a package that would be acceptable to their fanbase in light of the significant money owed. Iím not saying he canít be traded. Iím just saying heís such an injury risk and is owed so much money (basically $40M a year until 2030), I canít see a package coming their way that their GM wouldnít get fired for accepting.

Such a trade is definitely well beyond the risk tolerance for Torontoís front office.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#444777) #
It's a trade that the owner of the Angels not the GM would decide to make.

I think you're right and this Jays front office would never accept the risk of an injury prone player. I still remember Shapiro telling me that Tulowitzki was a major injury concern for him after the 2015 trade (before 2016 started).

Trout is the perfect player, however, to take on. You essentially take on the money (and risk) and get to give up less to get him. He's essentially the player that you're hoping Vlad can become jsut with injury concerns. Guess what, if you sign Vlad it's going to take a long term deal and you're gonna have to deal with the same injury concerns anyway.
Magpie - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#444778) #
you're gonna have to deal with the same injury concerns anyway.

In the sense that both players have two arms and two legs and various other body parts that can break down. Anyone can get injured. But still - one of those guys has appeared in 97% of his team's games since coming to the majors and the other fellow - the older one - has played in 61% of his team's games over the same period.

Maybe Trout will be more durable in his mid 30s than he has been - it's been known to happen (Paul Molitor!) - but it would be a surprise, I think.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#444779) #
Mags,

Trout has been less durable the last 5 years than in his first 5 years, but in any case he has been more valuable and I'd argue the reason he was less durable the last 5 years was due to his first 5 years of dominant performance. He no longer is the base stealer he was and has slowed down in the field.


First 5 years Mike Trout 47.2 WAR (771 games) vs VGJ 15.3 WAR (660 games)

Last 5 years Mike Trout 20.6 WAR (424 games) vs VGJ 15.3 WAR (660 games)

Turns out if you compare Mike's first 5 years to Vlad's he has in fact appeared in more of his teams games. How confident are you that Vlad will still average 1505+ games/year from age 25 to 30? I would say pretty confident, and that's because of his position vs Trout in CF.
Ducey - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#444780) #
"Trout is the perfect player, however, to take on."

Maybe if MLB was a video game, but Trout will be making $37 million this year and for 6 years after this one.

I'm not going to do all the math, but with the CBT the actual cost will be 30% extra this year and 50% extra next year (so $48 million this year and $55.5 M next year) assuming the Jays are over the first tier. Then the surcharge on a chunk of his salary of 12% this year and 42% to 45% in following years.

And the first rounder being moved back 10 spots.

All of this for his age 32 to 38 seasons.

And he has a full no trade clause.

Its not happening.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#444781) #
Who will produce more total WAR from 2025-2030 -- Trout or Orelvis?
Nigel - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#444782) #
The odds of Martinez producing more WAR in absolute terms than one of the greatest players of all time, even in his decline years, are pretty darn small. But $/WAR is a different issue.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#444783) #
This team has Bo and Vlad on expiring deals in 2025. That's next year. To keep Bo they will need to pay him for 10 years and around the same amount as Mike Trout. He's going to be in the same situation as Mike Trout in 5 years when he's declining and making a lot of money. Vlad may make less but he's likely going to get a 10 year deal and 25 million per year or more since he is young, a good (not elite-great) hitter and durable. So he will be in his 30s with an anchor contract as well.

If you don't have a few cornerstones on your team then you're not serious. Even KC ponied up for their franchise player. Mike Trout is an option for a team that may not want to invest in either Bo or Vlad or for a team that may want to invest in the former and not the latter but Bo may not have any interest. Having one of the greatest players in history join your team during a pennant run at market value and for 6 more years is attractive compared to the alternatives.

As for Orelvis Martinez...I don't even consider him to be part of the equation as a middle of the order bat or cornerstone player.

Blue Jays estimated 2026 payroll is $96,000,000.

Blue Jays estimated 2025 payroll is $143,000,000

Blue Jays payroll now is $245,000,000

There's lots of room. Yes, Mike Trout if it's true he has a no trade clause likely does not waive it to come to Toronto.



Cost for 2024 to acquire Trout at the deadline is roughly 12 million.

Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#444784) #
The club will visit California twice more before the All-Star Break: June 7th and July 9th.† Later, the club visits Mike Trout and the Angels on August 12th.† The travel schedule seems favourable overall.
soupman - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#444785) #
they are almost certainly going to end up fourth (like they do virtually every year) with or without trout. they've made the playoffs 1 time in the 12 years he's played there. i don't know any angels fans or lurk their corners of the internet, but i'm not sure i understand how reproducing the same losing formula minus ohtani is acceptable.

the blue jays nearly spent 1Billion CAD on a DH over 30 who may never pitch again. so...i'm not sure where your sense of their risk and uncertainty tolerances come from.
soupman - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#444787) #
Unless I don't understand statistics, the odds are that Trout produces more WAR in 2025 ALONE than Martinez does in his entire career.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#444789) #
Trout carries significant injury risk at this point. It's conceivable that, due to injuries and declining performance, he averages about 2.5 WAR or less per season from 2025 to 2030. Note that he posted less than 3 fWAR in each of 2020, 2021 and 2023. If Orelvis can top that (a big ask, admittedly, but not impossible for a well-regarded prospect who will be 23 next year), he would come out ahead in a head-to-head comparison.

Sometimes stars fade away quickly in their 30s. Look at Nomar Garciaparra, for example. He was posting around 5-7 WAR per year in his 20s. He hit 2 WAR per season once in his 30s and otherwise mostly just fizzled out after age 30.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#444791) #
Greenfrog,

Are we talking about the same Mike Trout??? Your comments would make sense if he was injured right now and sitting out again. He's been one of the best players in the league through 3 weeks, terrorizing opposing pitchers and looks healthy. Not sure how you can reasonable say he would put up 2.5 WAR per year.

Its like when Berrios had a tough year and everybody wrote him off when all numbers suggested it was an outlier season.
Nigel - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#444792) #
The odds of Martinez being a 2.5 WAR/yr player (on average) are incredibly low. How many current position players on this roster would you be comfortable in penciling that amount of production in in any given year. I count 1 - Bichette; that's it.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#444793) #
Trout has a rare spinal condition:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/angels-star-mike-trout-dealing-with-rare-back-condition/

He seems to be doing a good job of managing it for now. Not sure if he'll be able to do that through his age-38 season, though.

To be clear, I'm not betting that Orelvis will be better than Trout from 2025-30. I'm saying he has a chance to be better, because he's young and promising and Trout is entering his decline years with an injury history.

Because superstars are so darn impressive in their prime (and sometimes beyond their prime), we forget that that won't always be the case. You want another example? Albert Pujols was an absolute stud in his 20s and early 30s, regularly posting WAR seasons in the 7-9 range. From ages 33 to 42, he exceeded 2 WAR once.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#444794) #
Iím with green frog when it comes to the injury risk related to trout. But donít get me wrong if the Jays could get them and exchange for just taking on his contract, I would do that in a heartbeat. The upside he would provide to this offence would be outrageous. We can worry about the out in the out years.

Soupman, I think itís almost a guarantee that Ohtani will pitch again. Will necessarily be the same dominance starter? Iím not sure, but I do think 💭 ts likely. I think heíll at least start for a couple moreseasons. A reminder that the doctor who performed his surgery is also the Dodgersí team physician. Furthermore, I think the economic opportunity provided by Ohtani makes it a completely different conversation. His presence, by itself, would make money for Rogers, orders of magnitude more than any other player would. Not to mention the fact that heís probably the best hitter on the planet.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#444795) #
Apologize for the voice to text mistakes.

*if the Jays could get him in exchange *
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#444796) #
Greenfrog,

I guess if you look at Mike Trout through the limited lens of WAR you can argue that a minor league player with some projected pop and strikeouts like Martinez could "outperform" him. Yet, Martinez does not grade well defensively which WAR treasures.

Pujols again is a terrible example. He was an offensive player. To view him through the lens of WAR is a limited perspective.

Would it be accurate to say that Orelvis Martinez is more valuable than Josh Hader because he will likely accumulate more WAR than him each season? If you believe in WAR, sure...but I'm willing to bet every team will take Josh Hader and his career 2 WAR average over Orelvis Martinez.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#444798) #
"Pujols again is a terrible example. He was an offensive player"

Incorrect. Pujols is a good example because he was a superb two-way player. This is from The Athletic a few years ago ("Albert Pujols, The Great Defender"):

I asked a scout to describe how good first baseman two-time Gold Glove (and four-time Sports Info Solutions Fielding Bible Award winner) Albert Pujols was defensively in the prime of his career. The words he chose:

Intelligent. Instinctive. Soft hands. Surprising range. Mistake-free.

As Pujols approaches 3,000 hits, we remember the prime of his career fondly, when he was a great hitter. But he was also a great fielder, and today weíre here to pay tribute to that. Letís convert the words from that scout into numbers.

In the five-year period from 2005 to 2009, Pujols saved 96 runs at first base per our defensive metrics. The next most by any player at first base in that span was 44 by Mark Teixeira.

Pujolsí 96 included 31 Defensive Runs Saved in 2007, the highest total for a first baseman since the stat was first recorded in 2003. The next-most by any first baseman is 21 by Teixeira in 2008. Last yearís leaders were Brandon Belt and Joey Votto with 11 apiece.
John Northey - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#444802) #
With Trout one has 1001 issues - 86.5 bWAR so far - HOF lock, inner circle if he can crack 100 (few do). At age 32 he is a man on a mission - he wants to get to the playoffs something fierce. 197 OPS+ (career 174 so it isn't insane for him, he twice has had a 190+).  I suspect his career would be extended if he could get out of CF much like it helped Molitor to get off the field and to DH most of the time.  BUT he is a solid CF (positive dWAR most years and is above average in most areas it seems still) thus might not want to move from CF.  I'm imagining him in LF, Varsho CF, Springer RF - still 3 CF in the OF all with power.  If by some miracle he agreed to come here he'd also get DH and CF time I'm sure.

BUT remember, 2021-2023 he cracked 100 games just once.  But his WAR despite injuries those 3 years was 10.9, equivalent to 7.0 per 162 games (MVP level).  Yikes.  With 12 years of service time he automatically has no trade protection and would only waive it if he was 100% certain he had a good shot at a ring, not just in 2024 but long term. He is signed for ages 33-38 at $37.1 mil a year so that is a massive risk, but the Angels would want a LOT in exchange too. I'd think Tiedemann would need to be part of a package.

Btw, after the Yankee series we have the following wRC+ numbers...
So clearly C and KK are the let downs.  Bo is recovering quickly from a bad start (expect him to be back in the 120's by mid-May).  I expect Jansen & Kirk to both do much better (Kirk with the pressure lessened to play every inning, Jansen by being healthy [knock on wood]).  If Biggio & Varsho keep this up then 2B and LF are solved, just need to sit KK a LOT more (Schneider-Varsho-Springer OF sounds good to me).  FYI: the team's wRC+ is now 106 with a 688 OPS - offense is DOWN this year so watch out when using unadjusted numbers.

Btw, who would've though IKF would have a higher wRC+ at this point than Kirk & Kiermaier combined (110 to 107)?  Still super-early but kind of fun to see.
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 18 2024 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#444803) #
Okay, that's good. I learned something new today. I don't think First Baseman are good examples of players who can easily tally higher WAR totals but those stats you pasted for Pujols are indeed impressive. I guess my memory of Albert was tainted by his time in California...
John Northey - Friday, April 19 2024 @ 04:03 AM EDT (#444804) #
So, who had, at this point, the AL West with just 1 team at or above 500 and the Astros in last place? The Pirates, Cubs, Royals (and others) ahead of the Dodgers?

Obvious things are the A's last in attendance at 6,244 per game - quite a bit less than the Expos in their final season at 9,369 per game. By this point Montreal had only played in PR, but would go sub 6k for 4 of 6 games in their 2nd home series but even in that series averaged 6,617 per game (home opener was earlier so that didn't boost these figures). Even with a stadium that literally was falling apart they still never had more than 3 games in a row sub 6k. The A's worst so far is 3,296, 3 games sub 4k. The Expos worst was 3,609, 5 games sub 4k total all year - I suspect the A's will equal that their next homestand, heck their next 2 home games (Mon/Tues vs Pittsburgh to finish off April). 2025-27 in Sacramento should be interesting. Btw, the Arizona Coyotes officially sold every ticket at their minor league stadium this year (4,600 seats). They won't get 'crowds' like the Jays had in Dunedin though (max of 1,634) in 2021 but even with COVID restrictions in Buffalo and Toronto the Jays never were sub 5.3k for a home game outside of Dunedin (21 games). Sorry, having trouble sleeping thus get going on weird stuff.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, April 19 2024 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#444816) #
Poor Miami.† Cubs lead the Marlins 8 - 1 into the 9th.

The Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago White Sox are interesting teams from a betting perspective. The Oakland Athletics, too.
James W - Friday, April 19 2024 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#444826) #
Yeah... I tried betting against the Rockies once. They beat Zac Gallen and the D-Backs.
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