Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The Cubs return to Toronto, almost two years to the day since their last visit. 

The teams have played 24 times since their first meeting back in 2003, and they've split those 24 games right down the middle. The Jays have gone 9-6 at home, and 3-6 at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are managed by Craig Counsell, now in his second year in the Chicago dugout after almost nine years managing the Brewers - you know, the team the Cubs keep falling further and further behind in the NL Central, although that's mostly a matter of the Brewers being en fuego these days. He hasn't had much post-season success. The 2018 Brewers swept the Rockies in the NLDS and took the Dodgers to seven games in the NLCS, but otherwise they were able to win just one post-season game during Counsell's tenure. He is still regarded, and probably rightly, as one of the game's better managers - but that's not what I want to talk about. 

Of all the game's current managers, Counsell has a pretty good case to being the best player of them all. There was a time when Hall of Fame caliber players were more or less eager to become managers. It was one of the great frustrations of Babe Ruth's life that they never let him manage the Yankees (the Babe could barely manage himself, of course) - but great players from Ty Cobb and Walter Johnson to Pete Rose and Frank Robinson have taken their turn in the big chair. But Paul Molitor's probably the only one in the last twenty years. And now that Dusty Baker (and before him, Joe Torre) have well and truly retired, none of today's managers would even qualify for the Hall of Very Good.

Counsell and Mark Kotsay of the A's are pretty clearly the best of a decidedly mediocre bunch. Counsell played 1624 games over 16 seasons, the best of which came in 2005 for the Diamondbacks. They give him 5.5 WAR that year, which is the best single season of any of our current managers. This was for a season in which he hit .256/.350/.375, OPS+ of 89, so someone must have really liked his defense. Kotsay played 1914 games over 17 seasons. It's the most MLB games by any of our current managers. Kotsay also had the most hits (1784) and HRs (127.) Miguel Cairo also appeared in 17 seasons

Aaron Boone, one famous home run notwithstanding, had the shortest and least distinguished playing career of the three generations of Boones to have played in the managers. Still, Boone is one of just two current managers to have been named to an All Star team. And even Yankees fans must acknowledge that he's been a far more successful manager than his father. Dan Wilson of Seattle is the only other manager who was an all-star as a player. Wilson spent some eleven years as Seattle's main catcher and he was one of five Mariners named to the 1996 team.

We can rank them by WAR - this, after all, is precisely the kind of thing that WAR is good for (which doesn't mean I won't find something to complain about!

Craig Counsell, Cubs -  22.4 
Mark Kotsay, A's 21.4  
Aaron Boone, Yankees 13.6
Dan Wilson, Mariners 13.0 
Will Venable, White Sox 12.9

Rocco Baldelli, Twins 10.2
Dave Roberts, Dodgers 9.1
Miguel Cairo, Nationals 7.7
Alex Cora, Red Sox 7.0
Stephen Vogt, Guardians 6.8

Bob Melvin, Giants 2.5
Bruce Bochy, Rangers 2.3
A.J. Hinch, Tigers 0.0

There was a time when you would never be able to get away with hiring a manager who never played in the majors. Those days are well and truly gone, of course. There are thirteen current managers who never played in the majors, and consequently have 0 WAR. One of them, Mike Shildt, never even played professional baseball. I hope I'm not supposed to regard any of these fellows as being better players than the last four fromer major-league players, who each score Less than Zero. Because that would be really stupid. Why, it's almost as stupid as the notion that someone who was actually good enough to play major league baseball has negative value. That's an insult to the players, and an affront to common sense.

Dan Kelly, Pirates      -0.2
Torey Lovullo, D'backs -0.9
Terry Francona, Reds -3.0
Kevin Cash, Rays -3.1

The current crop of managers do cover every position on the diamond, which is actually somewhat unusual. Most of them are former catchers, of course, and most of them were backups. Of the 11 former catchers, only Wilson was a long time major league regular (Vogt had a couple of seasons playing that much in Oakland.) Bochy, Melvin, Cash, and Hinch were career backups; Schneider, Thomson, McCullough, Snitker and Quatraro never made it to the majors. Terry Francona, a lefty batter with no power whatsoever, is the only first baseman. Torey Lovullo, like Counsell and Cairo, was mostly a second baseman.  Boone was a third baseman, as was Tony Mansolino of the Orioles. Alex Cora was mostly a shortstop, as were another four men who never played in the majors: Mendoza of the Mets, Espada of the Astros, Marmol of the Cardinals, and Schaeffer of the Rockies. Dan Kelly of the Pirates was mostly a left fielder, which is fun. After all, left fielders don't normally become managers (they're too busy thinking about their next time at bat.) Kotsay was a centre fielder, as were Dave Roberts and Rocco Baldelli. Will Venable played more right field than anywhere else, as did Ray Montgomery (running the Angels in Ron Washington's absence) in his minor league career. And Pat Murphy of the Brewers was a pitcher in the minors. 

Counsell's Cubs are a very good team, of course, and one assumes that they're all-in 2025, having paid a goodly price for what could turn out to be just one year of Kyle Ticker. Alas for them, they happen to be in the same division as the team with the best record in baseball, who at  this moment are the hottest team in baseball. Two weeks ago, the Cubs were tied for first place. Today they're six games back of the Brewers, and contemplating a Wild Card showdown with... the Dodgers? The Mets? The Cubs score tons of runs, led by Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Michael Busch. But their pitchers don't impress overmuch - Matthew Boyd, at age 34, is having a career year, which is especially impressive when you remember how it all started for him. But he's never before had a season even close to what he's done for the 2025 Cubs. Cade Horton, their first round pick in 2022, is having a very impressive rookie season and Shota Imanaga has been just as good. But there's not a whole lot else and the bullpen looks a little thin.

Matchups

Tue 12 Aug - Brown (5-7, 6.04) vs Berrios (8-4, 3.89)
Wed 13 Aug - Horton (6-1, 3.18) vs Gausman (8-8, 3.85)
Thu 14 Aug - Boyd (11-5, 2.45) vs Scherzer (2-2, 4.21)


Chicago (Cubs) at Toronto, August 12-14 | 202 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#466017) #
I will always think of Counsell as a Florida Marlin.

The Jays could really use 6 strong from Berrios tonight, because despite the day off their bullpen is kinda tired after the quick Lauer pull. Rodriguez, Dominguez, and Fisher would all be on their 3rd time in 4 days if they are used tonight, and Varland threw 28 on Sunday. Nance, Little, and Fluharty are the fresh arms.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#466018) #
Funny - ex-Jay Justin Turner is on the Cubs. 77 wRC+ mostly as a DH/1B with 20 innings at 3B as well. They also have ex-Jays Reese McGuire (93 wRC+ in 89 PA), Jon Berti (42 wRC+), Matthew Boyd (2.45 ERA 3.13 FIP 3.81 xFIP over 23 starts 135 2/3 IP - his first year over 100 IP since 2019). They have ex-Jays minor leaguer Forrest Wall in AAA along with Spencer Turnbull. Nate Pearson was sent back down, along with Zach Pop. Probably others who I missed on my quick look at FG roster resource.
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#466019) #
I think of Counsell as a Brewer. Though looking it up he didn't put on the jersey until 33 or stick until 36 (but lasted until 40).

Didn't realize that Miguel Cairo had taken over as interim manager for the Nationals after David Martinez was let go. I thought I remember something about Cairo pausing for a moment before taking the interim job out of respect for his colleague Martinez.

Interesting that Pat Murphy is the only MLB manager who pitched professionally. Makes one wonder why half the players in the league (pitchers) aren't generally considered managerial candidates later in life (but backup catchers & plucky utility infielders are).
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#466020) #
That is a real rogues' gallery of former Jays John.

I had completely forgotten about Spencer Turnbull after being mildly disappointed that he flamed out in his short Toronto tenure.

Looks like the Cubs sent him down the their AZL Complex league for a few weeks in July, bringing him up to AAA Iowa July 27th.

He's had 3 starts & it's continued to not go well - 13 IP, 6.23 ERA, 3 HR, 5 BB, 14Ks.

The >1k inning is a little promising, but it seems the same problems plaguing him with the Jays have continued in the Midwest. One wonders if there's been any uptick in velo on Round 2.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#466021) #
Continuing the discussion from the LAD thread about reliever usage. My take on Hoffman and leverage. I am of the view that Hoffman is their best reliever and will have a noticeable lead if the club evens out his load a bit. After two games in three days, don't bring him in with a 2 run or three run lead and be mindful of other options even in a closer game. To some extent, it would amount to a sharing of the traditional closer role, but Hoffman would still be the last guy on most days.

As for "evidence" that regular work ad rest, and defined roles help relievers perform better. I don’t have much. It is a fact that most years relievers perform poorest on 6 days plus rest if one looks at league splits,but as evidence goes that is weak. You'd have to look at closers, for instance to see if that pattern holds over groups of similarly qualified relievers. Further study welcome.
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#466022) #
Thanks for the reply Mike.

I'm certainly open-minded to adopting specific reliever workload patterns if future data emerges that supports it.

As I mentioned many times in the old thread, my concern is further handcuffing managers like Schneider already being asked to do the impossible job of not overusing guys/not letting guys sit too long/picking the perfect reliever sequence to win ballgames.

It's possible teams like the Jays have their own proprietary internal analytics supporting some of the things they do.

But a lot of the "don't pitch 3 days in a row" or pitch counts per inning/start, while seemingly common sense towards injury prevention, also seem to have large components of arbitrariness to how they are implemented.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#466024) #
I would be shocked if there are many organizations left that aren't using machine learning to aid in determining workload distribution. With the enormous amount of pitch tracking data available, most orgs will no doubt be using trends in release points, extension, spin rates, movement, pitch combinations/utilization etc. to model pitcher fatigue and performance/injury risk.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#466026) #
Kudos to the Cubs for the Matt Boyd signing. He was never more than a decent 3/4 when he was healthy. This year his 4 seamer velo at an alltime high, but his K% the lowest in years. But he's not walking anyone and keeping the ball in the yard. How rare is it for a starter to have their career year at age 34?
Glevin - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#466027) #
Agree with Hodgie. Every decent team does it so there must be a lot of data around it. We're past the era of vibes (except for a few teams.)
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#466030) #
I am sure that there is data and analysis, but the analysis is not subject to a robust peer review process. A long time ago, Jonny German and I wrote an article here in the context of Barry Larkin's Hall of Fame case, with what might be termed a sabermetric analysis of Larkin's defence and essentially confirmed the view suggested by the Total Zone numbers then publicly available (that he was an above-average but not historically great defender). The article drew comment and helpful criticism, public and private, from the finest sabermetricians around.

The Berrios/Kikuchi decision from the playoffs a few years ago was a little window into the process that goes on now for some teams. We don't know exactly what happened, but we do know that the "interface" between analytics and on-the-ground decision-making was sub-optimal, and that the peer-review of the analytics was likely also to be sub-optimal.

I do not know if the same issues apply to reliever usage decisions, but my subjective impression from the way teams act is that they do.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#466031) #
I am sure that there is data and analysis, but the analysis is not subject to a robust peer review process. A long time ago, Jonny German and I wrote an article here in the context of Barry Larkin's Hall of Fame case, with what might be termed a sabermetric analysis of Larkin's defence and essentially confirmed the view suggested by the Total Zone numbers then publicly available (that he was an above-average but not historically great defender). The article drew comment and helpful criticism, public and private, from the finest sabermetricians around.

The Berrios/Kikuchi decision from the playoffs a few years ago was a little window into the process that goes on now for some teams. We don't know exactly what happened, but we do know that the "interface" between analytics and on-the-ground decision-making was sub-optimal, and that the peer-review of the analytics was likely also to be sub-optimal.

I do not know if the same issues apply to reliever usage decisions, but my subjective impression from the way teams act is that they do.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#466032) #
According to xERA and xFIP, Boyd had about as good a year in 2019 with Detroit as he is having with the Cubs in 2025. The major difference appears to be the quality of the team and its defence behind him (he's also been somewhat lucky in his HRs allowed). He was a strikeout pitcher with Detroit, but suffered from both a high HR/FB rate and a high BABIP especially for a fly ball pitcher.

It reminds me of Red Ruffing's career, and another data point which suggests that team defence and pitching effectiveness are not entirely independent factors in run prevention.

In short, give Pete Crow-Armstrong an assist.
AWeb - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#466033) #
Reliever usage in terms of days of rest is full of confounding variables, like the fact that a good reliever who had 5-6 days off is probably nursing an injury a bit, so bad performance happens because of (Rest x Injury) rather than anything obvious. It's rare in the past decade for a regular pen member to get a week off just because the situations didn't line up for them. The past two (?) years of tightening up the "use reliever until done, put back to minors" roster shuffle would be tough to account for as well. A lot of non-constant background conditions make analysis rough. 
Also, I rarely chime in here these days, but I have been reading since I lived in Toronto more than 2 decades ago. Just want to thank the people who keep the site running and the authors/commenters who make it a great place on the internet. 
John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#466034) #
I'm guessing with pitching we'll be looking at some form of tandem starters at some point (September or playoffs) which is what they attempted (poorly) in the playoffs last time.

So lets look at our current staff and how they are doing 1-2-3 times through the lineup using OPS against (PA in brackets).
  • Gausman: 615 (207)-636 (204)-705 (134)-3 PA 4th time
  • Berrios: 683 (215)-707 (212)-823 (136)-1 PA 4th time
  • Bassitt: 710 (216)-860 (212)-697 (140)-6 PA 4th time
  • Lauer: 769 (117)-664 (110)-894 (37)-2 PA 4th time
  • Scherzer: 636 (81)-720 (74)-1044 (34)-no PA 4th time
  • Bieber: 616 (1202)-660 (1169)-702 (932)-777 (72) (lifetime)
Unfortunate Bieber has to be lifetime instead of this year but really - I can't imagine the Jays will push him under any circumstances. Looking at these stats you can see 3rd time through is bad for all but Gausman (drops in effectiveness but isn't bad) and Bassitt (who has issues 2nd time through), really bad for Scherzer, and just bad for Lauer. So post-season doing tandems for all might not be a bad idea - mix up skill sets to maximize the discomfort for opposing hitters. Bassitt-Gausman (slow crap followed by hard stuff), Scherzer-Lauer (vet and kid), Bieber-Berrios (power/control mix). Just an initial thought. Over the next month+ a lot of other ideas will emerge - some good, some dumb. Regardless, they NEVER should do what they did in '23 with a starter coming in mid-inning. Starters should always start a fresh inning, use a 'real' reliever to get out of any jams as they are used to coming in like that, starters aren't.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#466039) #
Sportnet has an injury update. Gimenez will join the team tonight.

As for Springer:

“Meanwhile, outfielder George Springer is back with the big-league club as he continues to recover from a concussion.

“He's engaged in all baseball activities and will play multiple rehab games at triple-A Buffalo before returning to the Blue Jays once he clears protocol, which the team hopes happens in the coming days, per Zwelling.“
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#466040) #
Whether Gimenez's return is actually a good thing or not is entirely dependent on whose ABs he replaces.
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#466041) #
George's late summer noggin has become Scherzer's spring thumb with daily non-updates.

Hopefully for all our sakes his marbles actually have the Max ending instead of the Santander rotator cuff "he's not swinging a bat yet" Choose Your Own Adventure one.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#466042) #
Tonight Gimenez is taking Loperfido's ABs - taking all things into account, I think that's a net loss for the team. It's only one game and its unsurprising that they want to get him back in the line-up, but it will be interesting how long the rope is here.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#466043) #
As anyone could have predicted, Clement is starting at 3B even with Gimenez back, so it doesn’t appear Loperfido is going to be starting against RHP anymore. Makes the decision of who to send down for Springer a lot easier.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#466044) #
John Schneider has chosen France over Loperfido against a RHP. The projections indicate that it is likely a wash offensively (Loperfido has benefited from a .500 BABIP). I would probably have chosen differently nonetheless. If Springer returns soon, it is not important.

The Jays are fielding an excellent defensive club. The defensive gains outweigh the reasonable offensive cost, in my view.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#466045) #
To me it’s France over Loperfido not Clement over Loperfido.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#466046) #
I like that the team has been cautious and deliberate with their rehab progressions for injured players (Scherzer, Varsho, Gimenez, Springer). I guess maybe they learned from what happened with Santander.
Glevin - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#466047) #
Loperfido has a 173 WRC+ (177 VS RHP). Sure there's a lot of luck there but there's no way he shouldn't be playing against RHP. Clement doesn't need to play everyday against RHP and France shouldn't be playing DH against RHP ever.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#466048) #
Shapiro says he wants to stay with the team and that Rogers has expressed interest in this too. I think I would support this, given the positives we’ve seen at the MLB and minor-league levels this season.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#466049) #
It’s definitely Clement over Loperfido, IMO. They could have done this same lineup with Barger at 3B and Loperfido in the outfield, but (predictably) chose Clement at 3B instead. They weren’t going to DH anyone else on the roster other than France unless they wanted to give Vlad, Kirk, or Bo a DH day, so it was really whether they wanted Clement at 3B or Loperfido in the OF. They may not even be wrong choose France over Joey if you believe both are going to regress in opposite directions. We will see.
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#466050) #
I give the team a pass on the Santander fiasco. His leap in the stands was a freak thing. And long-term rotator cuff issues in general don't tend to be caused by such an otherwise relatively innocuous occurrence.

There was more of a performance case to IL Santander right away than a precautionary one. But I can see their rationale, as Santander was FINALLY showing a glimmer of being a useful hitter just prior to coming up lame.

IIRC as well, there was some talk about both a sore hip & a sore shoulder around the time of being day-to-day after the jump into the stands. So it's possible that the ultimate injury he succumbed to, like Yimi Garcia injuring himself in the cold therapy tub, wasn't necessarily directly related to the crash.

In terms of being cautious & deliberate, that hasn't always been the case this season. They let Gimenez play on a bum ankle for another day & a half IIRC which ultimately had him miss a whole month.

With both catcher 7-day concussion IL stints IIRC, the coaching & training staff let both Kirk & Heineman play on in the game & only took them out in the later innings (I may be confusing Heineman's more recent non-concussion with Ali Sanchez coverage as the 3rd backstop recently with his spring incident).

But it's also tough to be uber cautious as well in the modern game with trying to win, off days for catchers and only room for two receivers on the roster.

Watching the games live, it seems Heineman takes a direct foultip centercut off the mask every start. That don't look terribly different than the blows that knocked Tyler out twice & Kirk once. The difference being that in those undocumented ones, Tyler shook them off, play resumed, then no one ever thought about them again because he finished the whole nine (or at least until Kirk PH late).

In general, I've advocated a lot here for earlier IL assignments, not so much for precautionary reasons, but more so simply because it drives me bonkers for the team to be playing for days on end with a short bench because they are still evaluating a player that isn't available.

It also seems that they've given up on the scheduled rest 1 in 3 days for Varsho. This makes me happy as well, considering I consider this rotation to be fairly arbitrary looking from the outside as well.

There also seemed to be some mission creep, as the scheduled off days from his postseason shoulder surgery recovery months later presumably morphed into rest days for his rehabbing hamstring.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#466052) #
It's about the defense - if Loperfido looked better in the OF, he'd be in the lineup over France. At DH, it's not a bad idea for the team to speculate on Ty's power and see if they can unlock something more.

Hopefully the Jays took their time with Gimenez, because he didn't look nearly as useful when he was running around at less than 100%.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#466054) #
Great AB by Gimenez. Odd send with only one out. With two out sure.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#466055) #
The rare folly from Febles, he should have known better there.
electric carrot - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#466056) #
I thought France got a bad read and hesitated too much before running full speed, thinking it was going to be caught.
scottt - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#466057) #
It's after an off day, so all the regulars except to be on the field and not DHing. France is the backup DH. I'd like Clement to sit sometimes, but maybe not after an off day.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#466058) #
Please just bench Clement:)
scottt - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#466059) #
Why are we even debating who's playing?
SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#466060) #
Clement definitely reads this forum.
scottt - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#466061) #
Just watching the smirk on Clement's face made it worth watching.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#466062) #
Two very good ABs by Clement.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#466063) #
Freudian slip - 2 good ABs by Gimenez
hypobole - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#466064) #
If AI thought the player mentioned most here is the star of the team, who would it think it is? Not Vlad.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#466065) #
Clement doesn't need to play everyday against RHP

(Clement hits three-run home run off RHP)

I wonder what Ernie’s WPA was on that blast…
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#466066) #
Clement wRC+ up to 105, pretty good for a defense-first, extremely low salary player.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#466067) #
You could always just check, greenfrog, you seem pretty adept at using the internet. It was obviously very positive, though not nearly enough to make his WPA positive for the season. Huge swing!
Glevin - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#466068) #
Jays should pay me to criticize Clement VS RHP on here. He has like a WRC+ of 340 when I do and 7 when I don't.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#466069) #
The Bauxite nitpicking of Clement, a highly valuable player for the Blue Jays (more WAR than Springer), will no doubt be a curious artefact of the 2025 season.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#466070) #
Just back to the managers discussion. Thanks for the write-up magpie. It used to be that most managers were ex catchers, now it seems that ex middle infielders are the go to choice.
Glevin - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#466071) #
I was meh in extending Shapiro and for getting rid of Atkins prior to and early in this season. Think extending Shapiro is a no-brainer at this point. The Dunedin renovations the stadium upgrades, and now a first place team who look poised to compete for a while and a solid system. Atkins, not sure if I'd extend or see what happens next year. He's done pretty well but I am less sold on him.
scottt - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#466072) #
Never a boring moment.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#466073) #
Clutch pitching performances with runners on by Berrios, Fluharty and Little tonight, including bases-loaded strikeouts by Berrios and Little. Well done.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#466074) #
The funny thing is that the genus of the criticisms of Clement are totally valid. His bat is always going to struggle to be league average. It’s just the strident and continuous nature of the criticism that’s so bizarre - particularly when Clement’s strengths and weaknesses aren’t even unique when you look to the 2025 Jays.

Varland looked really good there.

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#466075) #
Varland bringing the heat (as usual). After starting the count 3-0 to Swanson, three straight FBs 98-99 to strike him out and end the top of the eighth inning.
scottt - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#466076) #
A rare tandem start by the Cubs.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#466077) #
Is Varsho making a Cal Raleigh-like quantum leap forward at the plate? 12 HR in 133 PA this year.
scottt - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#466078) #
Bionic shoulder.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#466079) #
Good win. Contributions across the roster.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#466080) #
The Blue Jays now have the second-best W-L record in MLB. Bring on the Power Rankings.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#466081) #
It used to be that most managers were ex catchers, now it seems that ex middle infielders are the go to choice.

It's shifted just a little since the one time I looked at this before, at the end of the 2018 season. There were 13 catchers managing that year, and 6 middle infielders; this year we've had 11 catchers and 9 middle infielders (besides the ones currently on the job, I should add Ron Washington.)
Magpie - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#466082) #
The funny thing is that the genus of the criticisms of Clement are totally valid.

Not to mention, Schneider says he missed the bunt sign when he hit his homer. Sit the man down!
mathesond - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#466083) #
Bring on the Power Rankings.

The Athletic bumped them all the way up to number 5!
mathesond - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#466084) #
DH continues to be woefully under-represented in the managerial ranks. Maybe Ohtani will add that to his resume.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#466085) #
Ohtani and his agent will say in the managerial interviews that he was really a light hitting middle infielder during his career, notwithstanding what the evidence says!
John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#466086) #
Beginning to think the big challenge this winter will be getting Varsho to sign long term - that power is amazing and mixed with his WOW defense just is a killer combo. Lousy OBP (sub 300) but a 138 wRC+ thanks to the power. Ideal #5/6 hitter - cleans up what is left on base after the core hits.

Bo has been great this year, but I'm beginning to think more and more that the Jays will push Gimenez over to SS and put Clement in everyday at 2B for 2026, Barger at 3B, Jimenez as the backup with Schneider playing the odd time at 2B (vs LHP shift Clement to SS give Gimenez a day off - or Clement to 3B, Barger day off, Schneider at 2B and Jimenez at SS - damn even looking forward this team is a rubics cube).

It'll be interesting to see how the Jays handle everything for the rest of season and into the off-season. With kids like Barger & Schneider emerging as solid ML players (in their roles) and Kirk & Vlad signed long term things are bright again. The rotation is starting to shift this winter (Yesavage should get a slot, same for Manoah with Bassitt and Scherzer heading off - big question being do they feel a need to sign Bieber and does he sign). The budget should be around $300 mil in 2026 which could get tight with Bo & Bieber on the wish list. At least we can feel safe they won't be chasing the big gun this winter in Kyle Tucker - he'd be nice but would be a luxury item on this team at this time.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#466088) #
There are 25 men who have managed 500 wins in the major leagues - they've won almost half (59) of the 120 World Series championships and 108 pennants. This is where they played. When they played (bearing in mind that McCarthy, Leyland, and Showalter never played in the majors.).

p (1) - Lasorda
c (7) - Mack, Torre, Bochy, Leyland, Melvin, Scioscia, Houk
1b (3)- Alston, Francona, Showalter
2b (5) - La Russa, Anderson, Harris, McCarthy, Mauch
3b (3) - McGraw, Cox, McKechnie
ss (1) - Durocher
lf (4) - Baker, Piniella, Clarke, Williams
cf
rf (1) - Stengel

Naturally this made me wonder - where are the centre fielders? And I slowly scrolled down and down and down. I skipped past Harry Wright, who was a centre fielder when he played. In the 1870s. Finally, at number 68 on the all-time Wins list with 995, I came upon Bill Virdon.

Dave Roberts will pass Virdon next year. Cito Gaston is third all-time among the former centre fielders.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#466089) #
who have managed 500 wins

Should read 1500 wins. There are 145 men who have managed 500 wins in the majors, and I don't have that kind of time.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#466090) #
Fun one Magpie. Jay managers in order of wins as a Jay manager....
  1. Gaston: CF/RF/PH
  2. Gibbons: C/PH
  3. Cox: 3B/PH/2B
  4. Jimy Williams: SS/PH/2B
  5. Schneider: C/1B in minors (2 wins behind Jimy, should reach Cox next year, long way to go to reach Gibbons & Gaston)
  6. Montoyo: PH/2B
  7. Tosca: never played as a pro
  8. Fregosi: SS with 1395 games there
  9. Hartsfield: 2B/PH will always be the first
  10. Farrell: Starting pitcher
  11. Mattick: SS/PH/3B/2B
  12. Buck Martinez: C (yes, the broadcaster)
  13. Tim Johnson: SS/2B
  14. Tenace: C/1B (fill in when Cito was sick iirc)
  15. Mel Queen: relief pitcher (managed final 5 games after Cito let go at end of 1997) So catcher is well represented with 4 managers here (best being Gibbons). SS had 4 as well (Williams, Fregosi, Mattick & Johnson). Plus CF (Gaston), 3B (Cox), 2B (Harsfield), 2 pitchers (Queen & Farrell), a PH (Montoyo) and a guy who never played as a pro (Tosca). An interesting group.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#466091) #
Vladdy ties up Springer with a 148wrc+, and now his 3.7war leads the team by a healthy margin too.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#466092) #
I wonder what Ernie’s WPA was on that blast…

Surprisingly the Ernie 3-run dinger to make it 4-0 was only worth .147 WPA.

It's about the defense - if Loperfido looked better in the OF, he'd be in the lineup over France.

Is there any concerns with Loperfido's D not being up to snuff?

Lukes got the start in LF tonight against the RH starter Assad. Haven't looked at the metrics, but I recall a few plays this year that Nathan looked awful on.

Yet by the eye test, Loperfido has made zero impression on me whatsoever. But IIRC, he was starting in CF in Buffalo before his callup, particularly once Steward Berroa went to the Dodgers.

Loperfido's defense or lack thereof is an interesting line of attack for justifying giving France DH starts vs the RH SP.

Perhaps Schneider simply prefers to keep LHH PH bat on the bench with the return of Gimenez to the lineup. Instead of emptying his entire bench of LHH in the starting 9.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#466093) #
While Jim Fregosi was far and away the best major league player of the Jays' managers, Mel Queen might be the most interesting. He started out as a third baseman, switched to outfield in the minors, and made it to the majors as an outfielder in 1964. At some point around July 1966, someone must have suggested he try pitching - he was playing some right field, but he was hitting just .088. This happened in mid-season at the major league level - he didn't go to the minors to learn how it was done. He made just 7 appearances on the mound that year, but returned in 1967 as a full time pitcher and went 14-8, 2.76 in 195 IP.

That was really it for him - he hurt his shoulder, and hung around as a fringe reliever for a few years. He spent many years serving in various roles for the Blue Jays - farm director, pitching coach - but will probably always be best remembered around here for his role in fixing Roy Halladay back in 2000.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#466094) #
Tosca: never played as a pro

An interesting outlier.

1) My memory was faulty. I thought Buck Martinez was a one & done single season manager like Tim Johnson. I didn't realize that JP Ricciardi fired Buck in the midst of an awful 1st half start in '02 during his 1st year as GM because he was a Gord Ash hire. Tosca took over mid-season in '02 as interim manager.

2) I also would've guessed that Tosca was only a partial season interim manager. But he was the official manager for '03 & '04 as well, before JPR canned in to being in Gibby.

http://tampasportshistory.blogspot.com/2009/07/catching-up-with-carlos-tosca-part-i.html

On Tosca's Wiki, there's a link to a 15+ year old blog interview where he discusses some of his backstory

  1. His father was Cuban (a pediatrician), his mother American. They moved from Florida back to Cuba where Tosca was born. He lived there until he was 9, fleeing back to the mainland with Castro's '62 takeover.
  2. He had a baseball scholarship to at a ?JUCO in FL for two years, then transferred to a major school? at the University of South Florida. But he lost his scholarship , got cut as a walk-on in his junior year but made the team senior year with a coaching change.
  3. It doesn't sound like playing pro was ever a consideration. He graduated & went on to coach high school ball for 2 years.
  4. A former coach got hired with the Yankees 2 years post graduation leading him to getting a low A coaching job in '78.
  5. He would coach in the minors for 17 years before getting his first MLB coaching job.

So Tosca's story makes sense. I thought his lack of pro ball playing experience may have been related to circumstances growing up abroad. But he still played 3 years of US college baseball and earned his place in the majors by putting in two decades on minor league buses.

Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 06:05 AM EDT (#466097) #
It’s really too bad Varsho didn’t get a Kirk esque deal last offseason,.

However has Varsho taken a leap under Popkins to just tap into his natural power and completely give up on plate discipline, or is this just a really good stretch?
mathesond - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 06:12 AM EDT (#466098) #
It feels to me that he's missed so much time this season, but when he plays he's been doing well. Not sure if a good stretch would include extended IL stays, but if so, this stretch seems to have gone on all year.
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#466099) #
There are 2 big questions to answer when considering a Varsho extension.

1) Will he be an exception to the general rule and continue to play excellent CF defence into his mid-30s?

2) Is his current power surge more than a hot streak, can he be expected to hit 30+ HR for the next several seasons?

If either of those are true he's a very valuable player, if both are true he's an MVP candidate. Personally I think 1) is unlikely, and I'd want to see at least 3 more months of his Monster Power before buying in to 2). The Jays have the luxury of waiting for more data.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#466101) #
KK played elite defence until his age 35 season, I’d bet that Varsho probably can as well. It’s not really based on his athleticism.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#466103) #
He lived there until he was 9, fleeing back to the mainland with Castro's '62 takeover.

Tosca would have turned 9 in September 1962, but Castro's revolution took power in January 1959.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#466105) #
Fun races out west. Mariners win their 8th in a row, Astros lose to Boston. Both teams 67-53.

Padres win their 4th in a row. Dodgers blow a 9th inning lead and get walked off in the 10th by their kryptonite rivals. They have now lost all 5 games to the Angels. Both them and Padres now at 68-52.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#466106) #
It’s not that Loperfido’s D isn’t up to snuff, pooks137. He’s been fine out there. The point was more that because his D hasn’t stood out as a clear positive, it’s easy for the manager to go with Lukes’ bat in LF instead and then France’s power at DH. If Loperfido was seen as a real plus defender I bet he’d have gotten the start in LF leaving Lukes to fight it out with France at DH.

Another part of it is that John said last night they are hoping that Springer gets into a game in Buffalo in the next 24-48 hours, and that he should only need a game or two before returning. In that positive scenario, Loperfido is destined for AAA until rosters expand, so it makes sense to be giving those ABs to France while you can. They will need his bat off the bench down the stretch.

I’ve seen this “no 5 lefties in the starting lineup” a few times here and can’t say I understand the rationale. I’d rather have my best squad for the first 6 innings and worry about pinch hitting later. It’s not like they are PHing for any of the righties (who start vs RHP) anyway.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#466107) #
The Jays have the tiebreaker over Seattle, so we might be M’s fans when they roll into Houston the third last series of the season.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#466108) #
One more name for John's litany of former Jays now with the Cubs is former catcher-of-the-future Carlos Perez, whom we signed out of the DR in 2008. He's now 34, and has been hitting well in AAA with a 139 wRC+. It would be nice to see him get a September call-up, but it seems doubtful.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#466109) #
It’s pretty hilarious that Clement missed a bunt sign in the fourth inning and mashed a 3-run HR instead. Perhaps the manager will finally stop with the bunting nonsense, but I doubt it.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#466110) #
Geoff Pontes (Baseball America) seemed pretty high on Victor Arias when talking about the Jays system yesterday. Said he was an above average to plus runner, good CF defensively, hits the ball hard and makes great swing decisions. Mentioned he hits way too many grounders but thinks that if he starts to lift the ball a bit more that he could help the Jays as early as next season.

I don’t think you avoid a contract extension with Varsho for a prospect in AA who may or may not even reach the Majors, but I think if you want be build something sustainable, then these are factors you have to consider. The Astros are likely the Jays model and they let players leave all the time without skipping a beat. I guess we will see if the Jays follow a similar path now that they are getting more development success stories.
James W - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#466111) #
we might be M’s fans

Never.
Katie - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#466112) #
I am somewhat sympathetic to the fact power rankings would be boring if they just listed teams in order of record, but the length of time it took for the Jays to move ahead of the Yankees was a bit silly.

The team that had grounds for even more complaints about power ranking treatment: the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Jays are the first AL team to 70 wins and second in baseball, and the BrewCrew are 5.5 games better.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#466113) #
I believe they said on the broadcast last night that this was also the fastest (least games) to 70 games in Jays’ history. Pretty remarkable.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#466114) #
Tough 8 game stretch coming up for our batters. After Horton and Boyd, it's Eovaldi and DeGrom vs Texas, then Skenes and Keller in Pittsburgh.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#466115) #
That’s a pretty accurate report on Arias. I’d quibble with that description of his defence in CF - I think he’s more toolsy defensively than actually good defensively. He’s one of the few position player prospects in the system.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#466116) #
Dodgers pitching staff swallows up another arm. Brock Stewart to IL with shoulder inflammation.

I wonder where the Dodgers will be in 2028. It will be interesting to see what they do with their high payroll and less valuable players with higher salaries then.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#466117) #
Is it likely the Blue Jays will be able to hold on to Angel Montas (elite 2028 DR prospect who has apparently told Toronto he will sign with them for $5.7m)? Or could the implementation of an IFA draft in the next couple of years potentially override that arrangement?
Glevin - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#466118) #
Hard to know what Jays should do with Varsho. On one hand, he's showing elite power this year and has been one of the best defenders in baseball for years so even if he declines, he can still be good defensively for a while. On the other hand, he's starting to get injured more frequently, defensive CF often decline very quickly at around 30, his arm strength is gone (maybe can return?) so he couldn't play RF, and his baserunning and speed have declined significantly this year. I mean, I'd love like a 3 year extension or something but not sure Varsho wouldn't want more.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#466120) #
For me re-upping Bo and Varsho are no-brainers. Stud prime aged players at the highest value positions who can slide down the defensive spectrum as they age. Would be a shame to lose guys like that because we decided to sign a DH like Santander instead.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#466121) #

3yr Stats

wRC+ vRHP

1. LF Lukes 116
2. DH Springer 116
3. 1B Guerrero 142
4. RF Santander 116
5. 3B Barger 112
6. SS Bichette 111
7. 2B Schneider 107
8. C Alejandro 100
9. CF Varsho 94

B. UT Clement 93
B. OF Straw 69
B. OF Gimenez 94
B. C Heineman 104

X. UT France 99
X. OF Loperfido 101


vLHP

1. 2B Schneider 112
2. 3B Clement 118
3. 1B Guerrero 146
4. RF Santander 111
5. SS Bichette 110
6. CF Varsho 106
7. C Alejandro 101
8. LF Lukes 104
9. DH Springer 95

B. UT Barger 59
B. OF Straw 72
B. IF Gimenez 74
B. C Heineman 212

X. UT France 103
X. OF Loperfido 84
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#466122) #
Nice article on Vladdy's significantly changed approach:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-is-getting-out-of-the-swing-of-things/

And don't worry about the power. His ISO is all the way back after a slow first month and a bit.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#466123) #
KK played elite defence until his age 35 season

Kiermaier was a lot more physically gifted than Varsho.

Kevin Kiermaier & Kevin Pillar were CF Gold Glove rivals on the last great Jays teams of '15 & '16. I think Varsho is more of a Pillar than a Kiermaier. Varsho's elite defense is based on his otherworldly reads & first steps on batted balls. His footspeed metrics IIRC don't stand out.

Simply put, Varsho has less leeway to age. His instincts will remain, but there's less reserve when the footspeed begins to decline.

Not sure when Pillar stopped being an elite CF defender, but I'd guess around the time they essentially sold him to the Giants in April.

Kiermaier would go on to play great CF defense for another half decade while Pillar became a journeyman 4th OF type (somewhat due to his below-average bat. Though Kiermaier was never a great slugger either).

Personally, I'd like to see the Jays let both Bichette & Varsho walk over the next two offseasons, no matter what happens. Bo was dead man walking coming into 2025. Varsho is a nice toy to enjoy at his peak, but is also a deeply flawed offensive player who loses tons of value if his defensive & power profiles move in the wrong direction.

ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#466124) #
Someone mentioned Kevin Kiermaier playing well defensively at age 35 but he has a different body type that is easier to maintain speed as a person ages. Kiemaier is 6ft 1 and 210 lbs. while Varsho is 5ft.8 and 207 lbs. I was honestly shocked that he is that short.

I, too, would like to see Varsho and Bichette resigned. Last season Bichette was hacking at everything from shoe tops to chin level, but this year his plate discipline is much better and he has returned to being one of the best contact hitters in baseball. His 14 pitch at bat against Tarik Skubal last month was one of the best I've ever seen.
earlweaverfan - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#466125) #
3yr Stats

wRC+ vRHP

These are valuable longer-horizon stats. My only question is whether the Popkins regime can be responsible for re-shaping the trajectory of any of these hitters on a sustainable basis. Are the 2025 data more reflective of what they can do going forward ?
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#466126) #
The issue with Varsho is that the Jays have him through age 30 already, so his FA years will be 31-beyond. Maybe he would take a reasonable extension now to avoid becoming a FA during a lockout, but it would still have to make sense on the Jays end. I think I'd probably pass on an extension with him unless it's team friendly. Same with Bichette. That puts a lot of pressure on the team's internal development, but also gives them money to play with to either find their replacements or allocate the money differently throughout the roster.

Would have been nice if Kasevich stayed healthy this season. He has the type of profile the Jays seem to have success with. Could be a sleeper SS option next season I guess, depending on how his 2025 finishes, although I suspect Clement will take that spot at least to start the season.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#466127) #
If they resign Bichette then you do have to wonder what the Gimenez deal was all about.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#466128) #
They may have had plans / backup plans before the seasob, but imo a 1st place finish is the kinda thing that allows a change in plans.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#466129) #
Manoah is 89-92 mph with his fastball in the first inning at AAA - sitting 90-91. Spraying the ball around a lot but mostly down. Two walks, one K.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#466130) #
Fangraphs (and Vegas) had the Jays with a lower % to win the World Series less than the Yankees a week ago (and it’s still only 0.8% higher). The Yankees chances are double Boston’s. There’s a lot more that goes into projections and power rankings than just W-L.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#466131) #
Manoah hit 25 pitches in the second inning and was pulled from the game. Command of his pitches seems to be his big issue. He walked one and hit a batter in that second inning. Add in a double and the Phils had three runs.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#466132) #
He also hit 91 mph just once in the 2nd. Every other FB was 90...

It's probably best to completely lower expectations to maybe see Manoah in 2026 - but Toronto will want to prepare for 2026 as if he starts next year in AAA.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#466133) #
Power Rankings are a type of “hot take” to generate fan engagement. Sometimes they’re way off base. In ESPN’s first Power Rankings (April 3), the Blue Jays were #20 and the Brewers were #24. Those are currently the two best teams in MLB by W-L record.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#466134) #
Earlwwaverfan - i think we have to look ar both and try to balance sample size vs recent trends as best we can. But current year splits are probably too small to not be extremely noisy tbh.

That being said - i don't think there's a huge difference between the player choices dictated by the 3yr vs 1yr splits at the moment anyways.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#466135) #
It's probably best not to count on Manoah ever been productive again and if he is it's found money - Sort of how I've written off Brandon Barriera as a prospect, if he ever puts together a season then great.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#466136) #
Manoah made one outing in double A, and walked 3 in 3 innings. There was and is no reason to believe that he'll be ready in 2025.

Yesavage goes tomorrow, and it's a different story. As it is for Bieber. The Blue Jays are in a fine position with their staff.

The Blue Jays have the best on-base percentage in the major leagues. In addition, their xSLGs in descending order: Varsho .575, Springer .561, VGJ .547, Barger .514, Bichette .495, Schneider .473 and Kirk .469. On average around the league, SLG is 19 points lower than xSLG. But even with that deduction, there's a lot of punch there. The offence, by rights, ought to be the best in the major league. The defence is the best in the major league and the pitching ought (now) to be better than league average. That all adds up to a winning formula and a lot of fun to watch. The best is yet to come.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#466137) #
I left the Sportnet postgame playing for a long time while otherwise occupied. One of the SN guys, either Zwelling or Davidi, mentioned that Manoah is only really a few starts behind Bieber in his rehab.

This surprised me, as Bieber's rehab is about to expire and it's commonly accepted that he's imminently about to join the team's 6-man rotation.

I suppose "a few" is technically true & could be doing some heavy lifting here.

But the comment did surprise me.

I was also very surprised to hear that Manoah was being brought to AAA after his velo was still down in his lower minors starts.

There's realistically no place for Manoah on the big league team this year barring catastrophe.

Why is Manoah being brought to AAA so soon? Is his rehab running out like Bieber's?

I also hope the Jays find a way to preserve any minor league options Manoah has for 2025, faking a rehab setback if necessary.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#466139) #

Looking Manoah up on Fangraphs, he has 2 options left. But also will clear 4 years service time by year's end along with going back to arb with a 2.2 mil base salary.

Could Manoah be a non-tender candidate this year?

2.2 is still pretty cheap. The minor league options also give him some 2026 SP depth chart value.

Manoah won't reach 5 years service time until 2027 (where he would no longer be optionable). So I guess trying to save his remaining 2025 option doesn't matter as much.

The main reasons to non-tender Manoah after still rostering him through two years of rehab would be

  1. They get really cheap close to the top luxury tax brackets
  2. The scouts & trainers don't think his velo is coming back
  3. They are short on 40-man offseason spots & value other players more
  4. They are willing to part with Manoah due to makeup issues
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#466141) #
Bo is a must sign for me. upcoming free agent class years look weak at best with Bo and Varsho co-headlining each class.

Varsho if it is team friendly sign him otherwise you can find great defense and pop elsewhere (in multiple players). Bo on the other hand has elite skills that are less likely to decline imho and he has a longer track record.

All of this comes down to my #1 focus this off season which is to resign Shane Bieber. That will really impact the team long term and I wish they could resign him before he even starts pitching this year. This guy is really good and I don't expect him to fall off a cliff with velocity, location etc.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#466142) #
Today's lineup has Loperfido in LF and Barger at DH but otherwise same as last night with France out and Joey in.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#466143) #
Non-tendering Manoah would be a very odd move for this team to make, as even at $2-3 mil he is a good #6 guy to have in AAA for a team with what could be a $300 mil payroll. Now, if he is washed up then I could see dumping him, but odds are the Jays will want to see him healthy in a spring setting first.

The 2026 rotation will be in flux as it shifts from old to young - Bassitt/Scherzer/Bieber all free agents opens 2 slots potentially, with 3 more post-26 maybe in Gausman, Lauer, & Berrios. Kids Yesavage, Tiedemann, Bloss, Macko, etc. will be fighting for those slots. I expect some current starters to be resigned or new vets to be signed as well. Still, keeping Manoah just makes sense in my opinion.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#466144) #
Bo's elite skill is contact ability & being a bad ball hitter.

Post lost 2024, his footspeed has dipped to the bottom quartile. And he's starting off from a baseline of being a notoriously bad defending shorstop even in his prime. Though his defense in 2025 has looked fine to me.

Presumably, a lot of Bo's elite contact skill is based on bat speed, which also doesn't tend to age well.

Bo isn't a good baserunner anymore and can't steal bases. I cringe now when he's on base these days when a batter behind gets a hit because he's not a guarantee to go 1st to home or 2nd to the plate.

Bo is having a career year for plate discipline, cutting down Ks immensely and taking occasional walks (for Bo). But he's never been known as a selective hitter and is very susceptible to offspeed junk well off the plate.

I like current Bo in the same way I like current Varsho. But I don't want to be left holding the bag paying top dollar for spoils we've already reaped.
scottt - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#466145) #
Manoah is a Boras client. He's not faking a rehab setback.
scottt - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#466147) #
Can't bench a guy who had homered in 3 straight games.
scottt - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#466148) #
Arbitration salaries are not guaranteed. If they think Manoah might end up being released, they can just take him to arbitration.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#466149) #
I see $45m coming off the books next year to 41yr old Scherzer 37yr old Bassitt and 31yr old Dominguez.

And then another $55m coming off the books the year after to 37yr old Springer 36yr old Gausman and 36yr old Garcia.

I think it would be silly not to reinvest some of that in moderate raises to prime top end position players like Bo and Varsho.
Michael - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#466150) #
Varsho's defense should age pretty well given his reads and first step are unlikely to get worse with age even while his speed will. So he will likely get worse on defense, but only marginally. It is true that his arm is pretty much dead now (although maybe some of that is getting back from injury and might get a little better in the future, maybe not).

His hitting does seem unsustainably good, but if the current year were his new level then you'd want to sign him long term for sure. 902 OPS, 141 OPS+ in a CF you'd want for sure.

I agree that ideally you'd probably want 3-4 more years of Varsho, the Jays have 1 more (this + 1).

Bo is likely to age poorly due to position and skills; however, sort of like Varsho is so good at defense that even a decrease makes him still good, Bo is such a good hitter that even decreases still make him good. Like this is the 3rd of the last 5 seasons that he leads the league in hits! This year's 120 OPS+ is the 2nd worst of his career, but 120 OPS+ is still quite good for anyone, let alone a SS. He's also only 27, so he could easily be a good player for another 6+ years.

It is true that free agents are likely to sign for contracts worth more than you'd like to pay (that's the flip side of what getting players young and cost control means), but if you aren't going to spend on Bo, where will you spend and how will you replace that hitting? Like Bo is currently tied for the 39th best active OPS+ in career (min 3000 PA) with 119, and that is including the horrible last year. Soto and Vlad are the only guys younger than him ahead of him, Acuna Jr the only same age, and the only other guys still in their 20s ahead of him are Tucker, Devers, Riley, Bellinger.

Where are you going to replace that value?
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#466151) #
I don't think anyone would be opposed to paying Bo & Varsho market salaries for '26 & '27.

The problem is term & what comes after.

Even in a scenario where raises to Bichette & Varsho eat up some of the old salary room for Scherzer, Bassitt, Springer, Gausman, Garcia, etc, you are now without the production of those vets while also having reinvested some of this liquidity into contributors on your roster that you are already counting on.

In other words, your team is worse from the retirements & FAs, has fewer resources than before & has retained some of your starting cast who are the same, only more expensive.

pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#466152) #
Where are you going to replace that value?

With Bichette, the team already has Clement & Gimenez who can cover 2B/SS and are everyday players for some time to come. It also allows Barger to play everyday at 3B without being yanked around between the IF/OF every game.

The Jays can thus get creative with their bench. They could simply give someone like Leo Jimenez an extended look who will be out of options. Or they can find another utility bench guy with other qualities like the ability to play SS, steal bases, mash LHP to give Gimenez/Barger days off, cover 1B to give Vlad DH days, etc.

Varsho is harder to replace, but CF defense without offense comes pretty cheap. The Jays bought Myles Straw for absolutely nothing. Who obviously isn't Varsho's bat but is probably 90% of his defensive ability.

Varsho wouldn't leave until 2027. But the Jays already have guys like Nathan Lukes, Jonatan Clase & Joey Loperfido that at least in theory can cover CF. And it will have to be determined what their long-term role on the big club will be if any.

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#466153) #
I will leave it to the FO to sort out but I'd rather not have Bo playing SS going forward - much will depend on his market and also how Kasevich finishes the season - Maybe Clement could hold the fort for the start of 2026 if they think Kasevich will be ready sometime in 2026. Victor Arias is rapidly moving up and if his offense keeps improving he could be ready to replace Varsho in 2027.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#466154) #
Well pooks i'd much rather have our younger cheaper internal options attempting to replace the contributions of 35+ yr olds than prime aged CFs and SSs.

And then when those younger internal cheaper options reach their prime we will be counting less upon Bo and Varsho in their mid 30s and we pay the then prime aged guys and let the older Bo and Varsho go, and the big wheel keeps on turnin'
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#466155) #
I see Bo getting a Dansby Swanson-like (adjusted for inflation) contract - better hitter, less glove for Bichette.

And someone like the Tigers or Dodgers will pay him. LAD or NYM might convinced him to play 2B.

Not a lot of big spenders are good fits and with, the likely 2026-27 disruption, even more teams than usual may be hesitant to spend.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#466156) #
Leaving aside the question of whether Bichette wants to do anything but go to FA, it seems to me that the big question for this offseason is how are they going to improve the starting pitching staff. If you have some faith in Schneider's 2025 performance then Clement, Gimenez, Schneider and Barger give you an economically efficient way to cover 2B/SS and 3B for the next few years - allowing the Jays the opportunity to plow $'s into the starting pitching staff. Or, to put it another way, putting say $25m a year into a long term Bichette extension may not be the best use of funds given what is currently on the roster. It will be interesting. Given that Bichette's value is largely tied to his offensive ability I think I'd rather be paying Bichette in 2028 than Varsho but your mileage may vary on that one (I'm probably the low person on the board in buying into Varsho's long term offensive profile).
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#466157) #
Seems clear to me that next year is one where you count on the likes of Yesavage and Tiedemann for the pitchung staff.

Gausman
1 of Bieber/Scherzer/Bassitt
Berrios
Lauer
Yesavage

Tiedemann
Bloss
Manoah
Francis
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#466158) #
I don't think Bo has ever said anything other than that he'd like to stay, and i can only imagine the vlad contract and team success pnly makes him want to stay more.

I just don't get what you guys prefer to do with the money? You want rogers to lower the payroll pocket the money in order to be a worse but more efficient team?
John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#466159) #
For 2026 we are looking at ...
  • C/1B: set with Kirk/Vlad & Heineman backup at C
  • 2B/SS: can be Gimenez/Clement with Jimenez/Schneider helping out (SS/2B respectively) ideally adding a LH IF to give Clement logical days off
  • 3B: Barger everyday, Clement covers when he needs a day off (Schneider to 2B or Jimenez to SS or whatever juggling needed)
  • LF/RF/DH: Santander/Springer locked into 2 slots, Lukes/Schneider/Loperfido/Clase (out of options) for the final one with Straw as a 5th OF/PR with Pinango/Schreck and others fighting to get a chance
  • CF: Varsho with Straw backup (and Lukes/Clase/Loperfido/Schreck)
  • SP: Gausman/Berrios/Lauer locked in, Manoah/Francis trying to regain past form, Yesavage/Macko/Tiedemann/etc. fighting to get a shot.
  • RP: Hoffman/Rodriguez/Varland/Little/Garcia/Sandlin locks if healthy, Fluharty/Fisher/Schultz all deserving a real shot based on 2025 results, lord knows how many others (relievers are so in flux all the time)
So the Jays have a strong team in 2026 even if none of the current free agents resign, or if they don't sign any others, or make any trades. However, it is VERY safe to say something will happen this winter - I expect them to make a real effort on Bieber. Framber Valdez is ranked #1 among pitchers by MLBTR and he is exactly the type the Jays love - veteran who has established he can throw a lot of innings (170+ 3 straight years and likely this year too) and this will be his 6th straight 120+ ERA+ season. Dylan Cease has had a weak year and 2 of the past 3 years had a sub 100 ERA+ but he is damn good and probably a lot better with a strong defense. Ranger Suarez, Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, and others are out there as options for the rotation as well.

So my bet is the Jays pick a target (Valdez) and go hard after him - he seems annoyed with the coaches in Houston (see here) so there is an opening - sounds like he'd LOVE the Jays defense (what pitcher wouldn't).

As to Bo - I expect the Jays to make a decent 3 year offer to him, but a poor 5 year or beyond one. With all the kid SS's in the system (2 in the top 100) signing him longer than 3 years makes no sense. With Clement & Gimenez here SS can easily be covered for a year or two until one of those kids is ready. Financially it just makes sense. Maybe the Jays give him a silly 1-2 year deal ($30-$40 mil a year) just to lock in a strong team until the kids are ready.

Varsho is a tougher one - I'd happily give him 3 more years after free agency (covering age 30-32) but would hesitate to go further. So a 4 year $20-$30 mil per deal would make sense but will he demand more? Hard to say but I'd guess so (5 bWAR last year, 1.5 in 32 games this year suggests he is worth more). FYI: his agent is ISE Baseball. Bo's is CAA Sports.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#466160) #
I'm not advocating that Rogers simply pocket the money at all. I'm saying that they may need to put serious $'s into the pitching staff in some way shape or form.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#466161) #
Well i got Gausman Berrios Lauer Yesavage in the rotation tonstart the year just based on contracts and value.

Definitely would like to buy the best SP available, and that might be Bieber and might be good value too.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#466162) #
I don't think anyone has suggested or is suggesting to not sign Bo in order to save money. If anything, it's to allocate that money somewhere else where it could/should have a bigger impact. The FA SP market is pretty strong this winter. That's a good place to start, especially looking at the rotation outlook after this season.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#466163) #
Counting on Yesavage before he's thrown a single AAA pitch seems aggressive to me but let's hope that you are correct.
scottt - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#466164) #
Adames is a better comparison for Bo, 7/182M is about the same.

I see Bo asking for something like 6/200M out of the gate.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#466165) #
Jays have a great opportunity to chase Horton early tonight. His pitch counts have been dropping rapidly game over game as hes at 108 innings this year after throwing just 34 innings last year (and 88 the year before). They're likely trying to keep him available for the post-season. And he doesn't have big strikeout numbers, either so they should be able to foul off a lot of pitches and really make him work.

The key will be for first-pitch swingers like Clement and Barger to really wait for their pitches. Luckily first pitch swinger France is on the pine tonight.

Barger has been down 0-2 or 1-2 so much lately... super hard to be successful like that.
scottt - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#466166) #
Better defense up the middle, equivalent bat in a corner. Santander this year is like Bo last year.
Spifficus - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#466167) #
Just about the only similarity that Santander and Bo have as ballplayers is the hat they wear. Sure, they're not 180 degree opposites, but they're at least perpendicular.
scottt - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#466168) #
Horton hears a who?

The Cubs hitters are looking very frustrated.
They've been scuffling and they're falling behind. There might be a meltdown if Gausman can shut them off.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#466169) #
Jays have a great opportunity to chase Horton early tonight.

Cade Horton hasn't given up a run over something like his last 25 innings & before the All Star break July 9th.

Louis Varland pitched for the Twins in that game and would still wear the uniform for another 3 weeks.

Streaks are made to be broken. But that's a tall order.

Glevin - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#466170) #
I'd be happy resigning Bo too but not to a long deal. I just think he's a unique sort of player and I don't think he is going to age well. He should be a 2B right now I think but I think he's probably a LF/DH sooner than you might think. Bo has one incredible skill and that's his hit tool. I just don't think that's a skill without much else that is going to age well. He's a weird player so you don't know but that's my feeling. Regardless, I just think you're better off signing Gleyber Torres for 3 years and cheap over Bichette for 8 years and expensive.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#466171) #
Horton throws a lot of first pitch strikes, and usually fastballs, but Jays should probably expect a lot of sweepers to RHH and changeups/curves to LHH.

Umpire Jim Wolf has a very big, wide strike zone but doesn't expand as much down, which will help as everything from Horton is down (big GB rate). But could encourage Horton to be sweeper heavy to RHH.

Jays should look offspeed, force him up in the zone and RHHs like Bo, Vladdy and Kirk should aim for oppo field to guard against the sweeper - a huge whiff pitch for Horton.
Michael - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#466172) #
I think I'd do 6/200M for Bo. I mean the average annual amount is a lot at 33.3M/year, but getting 6 years only instead of 8 or 10 means that you'd expect him to be pretty good for all of that time. He's 27 now, so 6 years would mean 28,29,30,31,32, and 33 years old. 5 years might be better, but that is still a pretty productive time period for most people. I'd certainly rather do 6/200M than 10/300M or the like.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#466173) #
Best news of the day: Springer has been cleared to return from his concussion and start a rehab stint.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#466175) #
I take back the compliment I gave the other day for the advanced scouting... Horton's done everything I suggested he might tonight (here and twitter) and the Jays look lost.
christaylor - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#466176) #
He has been getting the bottom of the zone as a strike pretty frequently, which was not your prediction.

Any group of hitters are going to look a little lost against a pitcher with his A game.
Hodgie - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#466177) #
There isn’t a lot to complain about Varsho’s defensive game, but his decision making on throws has been suspect since returning. Fisher was terrible, but the 4th run is on Varsho - there is no universe where Reese McGuire should be advancing first to second on a shallow fly ball to CF.
scottt - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#466178) #
Amaya just came off the 60IL and that's probably it for this year.
Glevin - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#466179) #
Sorry guys, I didn't criticize Ernie playing vs RHP today. He hit HRs in 3 straight games, he deserved to be starting. Next righty, he starts against, I'll try it again.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#466180) #
Very unfortunate injury to Amaya.

Despite the loss, the news that Springer feels he’s turned a corner and can resume playing is a huge positive for the Blue Jays. If he can come back and hit well, it will be a massive boost for the team. Add a healthy Bieber to the mix, and they should be well positioned for the stretch run.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#466181) #
Health right now is top of mind. With the Yankees losing, Red Sox having lost, being healthy has to be the top thing for the Jays with a 4 1/2 game lead. Jays are in a tough stretch (LAD/Cubs) right now, and are 2-3 at the moment during it. Not great but OK. Next is the Rangers (a 500 team), then Pittsburgh, Miami, Minnesota. That 12 game stretch is one the Jays need to make some hay during. Push themselves up to #1 in the majors or at least keep pace with the Tigers and Astros. 6 1/2 behind the Brewers makes catching them damn hard, but being #2 in MLB is damn fine. After those 12 games that should be easy they get to play Milwaukee who hopefully will have cooled down at long last.

Yeah, right now we need people to be healing up and figuring out what roles each guy should have in the post-season. Who do you keep rostered, who do you use out of the pen in different situations, who gets pushed out of the rotation, etc. If the team starts to slip then the top focus is back on winning, but right now the Jays need to act like Cito did in 91-93 with the regular season being used to figure out whose skill set translated into what purpose for the post-season.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#466182) #
It didn't matter in the end. But Bo looked very slow again not scoring from 1st with 2 outs with Vlad's double rolling around the LF corner.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 13 2025 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#466183) #
With 2 out I was shocked Bo didn't score on that double.
uglyone - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 02:09 AM EDT (#466185) #
Fisher flopping in a fairly high lev situation sucks.
pooks137 - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 02:36 AM EDT (#466186) #
Every reliever occasionally looks awful.

Fisher's stuff in particular looked funny today because when he's off, his curveball has a strange arc and stays really high above the zone. He was having tons of problems early on locating his fastball as well, which he tends not to throw very often. It was missing badly above the zone.

When he finally did get some command back, he got BABIPed by some singles.

The play that Amaya was hurt on was also a strange. It wasn't hit hard, but it was hit directly at Bo. Bo seemed to play it cleanly, yet the play at 1B wasn't even close with the catcher running.

Not sure what happened either on the stolen base after the leadoff walk. The Jays correctly predicted the Shaw? going on the first pitch & called for a rare pitchout, but the play at 2nd wasn't close either. Maybe Fisher as a reliever isn't good at holding runners either.
Michael - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:53 AM EDT (#466187) #
"his[Varsho] decision making on throws has been suspect"

I think part of it is that one of his shoulder injuries injured his arm so he went from a so-so arm (IIRC above average accuracy with below average strength when he first joined the Jays) to a terrible arm with absolutely no strength and an overly high lob trajectory. And therefore he might not have the instincts for what plays are makable with his current arm, and the higher lob trajectory makes it harder to hit all the cut off men and easier for trailing runners to know when they can advance. Hopefully he'll adapt to the new arm (or in an unlikely best case world - fully heal the shoulder and get back more arm strength).
Katie - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#466189) #
I thought it was odd that Marc was being slightly complimentary of the first place team in the American League. However, it appears it was just a temporary blip.
scottt - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#466190) #
Savant has Vladdy at the 34th percentile for sprinting. Bichette, 22nd. Schneider, 58th. Loperfido, 82nd.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#466192) #
Wow, Vlad is not as fast as he thinks he is. I saw somewhere where Ty France is in the bottom 5% for speed.
Nigel - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#466194) #
Fisher's walk to the first batter was obviously a huge problem but after that everything was just bad BABIP luck. It happens. The Jays have had a ton of good fortune on that front recently.
pooks137 - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#466195) #
The Jays also upgraded team speed a little swapping Horwitz for Gimenez (at least pre-ankle injury).

Horwitz last year was essentially Kirk-level slow.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#466197) #
Interesting lineup choices today against the lefthander. Loperfido is in left, with Straw in center and Varsho on the bench. VGJ is the DH with France at first base. Kirk started last night against the right-hander so has the day off with Heineman starting.
John Northey - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#466199) #
For those wondering - Horwitz has a 99 wRC+ this year, 0.5 fWAR despite negative scores for baserunning, offense, and defense. He has been purely a DH/1B this year. He would've had no role on this team and would've probably been left in the minors all year.
Waveburner - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#466200) #
Kirk has been in a big slump since coming back from the concussion, so it doesn't feel like they're losing much with him sitting.
Eephus - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#466203) #
Very wonky route by Flanders Schneider on that Cassie hit but he made up for it nicely.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#466205) #
I wonder what the catch probability on the Caissie ball was. 40%?
hypobole - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#466206) #
That is a lot of strike throwing so far. Max 25 of 28, Boyd 17 of 22.
Nigel - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#466207) #
On target for a couple of Maddox’s and a sub 2 hour game.
Eephus - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#466208) #
This is some fine pitching, folks.
Gerry - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#466209) #
Not much happening for those of us at the ballpark
hypobole - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#466210) #
One thing the Jays have managed to do against good starters the past few months is getting their pitch counts up. Not today whatsoever.
Nigel - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#466211) #
They have been ultra aggressive today for some reason. Boyd has been very good but he’s had a bit of help.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#466212) #
Finally! Great swing by Vladdy! Making Barker proud with the big finish!
Eephus - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#466213) #
Behold! The man!
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#466214) #
This is exceptionally wild, even for Little
Eephus - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#466215) #
Not sure if I’m more nervous that Dominiguez is coming in, or if Little had stayed in and kept bouncing those knuckle-curveballs. Either way… nervous.
Nigel - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#466216) #
Dominguez wouldn’t be my choice but youneverknow.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#466217) #
Schneider the genius! 3Ks were huge in that inning
Eephus - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#466218) #
Okay. Which Hoffman are we gonna get…
hypobole - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#466219) #
My nickname for Hoffman is "Hotel California"

And I was thinking to myself
"This could be Heaven or this could be Hell"
Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#466220) #
Heaven.
Nigel - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#466221) #
Fun ballgame and fun series. Well played by both teams.
hypobole - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#466222) #
Huge series win, especially against a pitcher who looked dominant until Vlad. Speaking of dominant, how about Max?
electric carrot - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#466223) #
Great win. What more does Heinman need to do to prove he's a legit hitter? Serious question.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#466224) #
I have a feeling 2025 is going to fall into the category of the great Blue Jays seasons of the 1980s/1990s and 2015-2016. As long as everyone can stay healthy, all the pieces are in place to make a serious postseason run.
92-93 - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#466225) #
If the playoffs started tomorrow (well, Tuesday), Scherzer would be my Game 1 starter. What an incredible performance.

Schneider made it clear what he thinks of Loperfido’s D there - it isn’t good enough that you wouldn’t PH for him and play for an extra run when you already have the lead.



Glevin - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#466226) #
Felt like a playoff game. Huge win.
SK in NJ - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#466227) #
Great game.

Can't wait until Springer is back. The lineup definitely needs him, and the pitching matchups remain tough over the next two series'.
hypobole - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#466228) #
Last time we scored 2 runs or less and won was when we beat the Phillies 2-1 June 4th, so over 2 months ago. Lost 9 games scoring 2 or less in that span.
scottt - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#466231) #
Funny how the Yankees and Mets are in identical positions, just hanging to the last playoff spot.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#466233) #
Here's a question for Magpie (or some other resourceful researcher):

Not to take anything away from the 2025 Blue Jays (great team), but has there ever been a team that has been 20+ games above .500 at this stage of the season with such a modest run differential (+46)? This seems like quite an impressive feat.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#466235) #
Probably, greenfrog. The 2014 Cardinals won 90 games with a +16 run differential. They never did get 30 games above .500 though.
scottt - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#466236) #
Winning 1 run game is a feat and the 2025 are good at it. Likewise for winning games with 5 or more runs scores.
What leads to the small run differential is many games lost by huge scores. They lost the opener 2-12.
Let's look at the total vs Baltimore.

37-64?
greenfrog - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#466238) #
You may well be right, Mike. Also, the recent Colorado series no doubt normalized the team’s overall run differential somewhat.
Magpie - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#466240) #
has there ever been a team that has been 20+ games above .500 at this stage of the season with such a modest run differential (+46)?

You bet. Obviously the 2015 Texas Rangers came immediately to mind. On 15 August 2015, they had a very nice 70-60 record despite being outscored 549-557 to that point in the season. They would finish 95-67 despite scoring just 8 more runs than they allowed (765-757.)

Everybody remembers that Texas team, surely. Jose Bautista hit this home run....
Magpie - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#466241) #
they had a very nice 70-60 record

Typo. They were 20 games over, at 70-50.

That should teach me to type in the dark.
Magpie - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#466242) #
Those 2015 Rangers are about as unique historically as a team could be. I couldn't tell you anything about records and run differentials with six weeks left to play. But over a full season? I got data!

A team that is 20 games over at this point in the schedule is playing roughly .580 ball. Well, since 1900, about 452 teams have played .580 ball (which would be 94-68) over a full season. Obviously, the 2015 Texas Rangers had the smallest Run Differential (+8) by a considerable margin. Next come the 1913 Senators (+34), and Brooklyn in 1924 and 1954 (+38). The 1990 White Sox (+49) and the 1993 Expos (+50) come next.

Every one of those teams finished second, and missed the post-season in the days before the Wild Card. Except Texas, naturally. They won their division...
uglyone - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#466243) #
A couple of super clutch gamechanging HRs against excellent teams in late innings lf one run games is the kind of thing that makes you start believing he's ready to be a playoffs difference maker.
Magpie - Thursday, August 14 2025 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#466244) #
I kept talking about the 2015 Rangers. It should be 2016. Still typing in the dark.
uglyone - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#466245) #
For the record i believe the jays have the 3rd best run differential in baseball and best in AL since May 1.

hypobole - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 01:10 AM EDT (#466246) #
With Bieber making his final rehab start tomorrow, just want to mention the Phillies, with the return of Aaron Nola, are going to a 6 man rotation.

From ESPN:

Thomson said he isn't sure how long he is going to use the six-man rotation.

"Once for sure and then we've got some other ideas how to attack this thing as we move forward," he said.
Jonny German - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 02:54 AM EDT (#466247) #
Injuries have a way of cropping up and ensuring an expected surplus of starting pitchers never actually materialises. But if the Jays have 6 healthy starters next week I think the best plan may be to have Bieber be part of 2 tandem starts in August, and then go to a 6-man rotation for September.

2 possibilities for the tandem starts:

August 20, Bieber-Bassit @ Pittsburgh
August 27, Bieber-Lauer vs Minnesota

August 22, Bieber-Lauer @ Miami
August 29, Bieber-Berríos vs Milwaukee
uglyone - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#466249) #
Still having trouble understanding the benefit of a 6 man rotation.
James W - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#466250) #
Still having trouble understanding the benefit of a 6 man rotation.

Nobody's feelings get hurt. (Well, except for the reliever who gets sent down.)
Shoeless Joe - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#466251) #
I mean as much as Eric Lauer has gotten us this far, its probably time he settles into the swingman role he will provide for us in the playoffs. I am thinking in the playoffs we go with a 4-man rotation of Bieber, Scherzer, Berrios, Gausman> I don't see us going 3 days rest as we lack a true ace.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#466252) #
"Injuries have a way of cropping up"

The top 3 in the rotation for the Jays have been incredibly durable the last few years. Berrios, of course, has never missed a start in his career while Gausman and Bassitt have rarely been out since signing their contracts with Toronto. The 4th and 5th spots have been unstable at times but on the whole, the training staff and coaches have kept the starters on the field.

It sounded on the last broadcast that Loperfido might be the player sent down when Springer returns.
dalimon5 - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#466253) #
Gausman is saving bullets for playoffs.

Berrios is either saving bullets for playoffs or is pitching injured.

Bassitt is to respected to demote from rotation.

Shane Bieber doesn't do tandem starts, he pitches deep and I can't see him pitching less than 6 innings each start.

Scherzer seems to be pushing his limits toward back end of season with increased velocity.

Lauer is the guy to shift to swing role and likely early option for Chris Bassitt starts on the road.

greenfrog - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#466254) #
Bieber, Gausman, Scherzer would probably be my top 3 postseason SPs. I would deploy Gausman in game 2 so that the two hired guns on expiring contracts aren’t given the first two playoff starts (this might be perceived as a snub by the long-term rotation members).

Beyond the top three, it’s hard to say. I would look at who is pitching well with good stuff at the end of the season and then make a decision.

Lauer has been great but it’s easy to see him getting bumped to the bullpen for the postseason, if not before then.
Nigel - Friday, August 15 2025 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#466261) #
Ridiculously small sample size warning - Gausman was excellent in the post-season early in his career out of the pen (for Baltimore and Atl) ; Gausman has been shelled in the post-season as a starter (SF and Tor).
Chicago (Cubs) at Toronto, August 12-14 | 202 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.