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The Cubs return to Toronto, almost two years to the day since their last visit. 

The teams have played 24 times since their first meeting back in 2003, and they've split those 24 games right down the middle. The Jays have gone 9-6 at home, and 3-6 at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are managed by Craig Counsell, now in his second year in the Chicago dugout after almost nine years managing the Brewers - you know, the team the Cubs keep falling further and further behind in the NL Central, although that's mostly a matter of the Brewers being en fuego these days. He hasn't had much post-season success. The 2018 Brewers swept the Rockies in the NLDS and took the Dodgers to seven games in the NLCS, but otherwise they were able to win just one post-season game during Counsell's tenure. He is still regarded, and probably rightly, as one of the game's better managers - but that's not what I want to talk about. 

Of all the game's current managers, Counsell has a pretty good case to being the best player of them all. There was a time when Hall of Fame caliber players were more or less eager to become managers. It was one of the great frustrations of Babe Ruth's life that they never let him manage the Yankees (the Babe could barely manage himself, of course) - but great players from Ty Cobb and Walter Johnson to Pete Rose and Frank Robinson have taken their turn in the big chair. But Paul Molitor's probably the only one in the last twenty years. And now that Dusty Baker (and before him, Joe Torre) have well and truly retired, none of today's managers would even qualify for the Hall of Very Good.

Counsell and Mark Kotsay of the A's are pretty clearly the best of a decidedly mediocre bunch. Counsell played 1624 games over 16 seasons, the best of which came in 2005 for the Diamondbacks. They give him 5.5 WAR that year, which is the best single season of any of our current managers. This was for a season in which he hit .256/.350/.375, OPS+ of 89, so someone must have really liked his defense. Kotsay played 1914 games over 17 seasons. It's the most MLB games by any of our current managers. Kotsay also had the most hits (1784) and HRs (127.) Miguel Cairo also appeared in 17 seasons

Aaron Boone, one famous home run notwithstanding, had the shortest and least distinguished playing career of the three generations of Boones to have played in the managers. Still, Boone is one of just two current managers to have been named to an All Star team. And even Yankees fans must acknowledge that he's been a far more successful manager than his father. Dan Wilson of Seattle is the only other manager who was an all-star as a player. Wilson spent some eleven years as Seattle's main catcher and he was one of five Mariners named to the 1996 team.

We can rank them by WAR - this, after all, is precisely the kind of thing that WAR is good for (which doesn't mean I won't find something to complain about!

Craig Counsell, Cubs -  22.4 
Mark Kotsay, A's 21.4  
Aaron Boone, Yankees 13.6
Dan Wilson, Mariners 13.0 
Will Venable, White Sox 12.9

Rocco Baldelli, Twins 10.2
Dave Roberts, Dodgers 9.1
Miguel Cairo, Nationals 7.7
Alex Cora, Red Sox 7.0
Stephen Vogt, Guardians 6.8

Bob Melvin, Giants 2.5
Bruce Bochy, Rangers 2.3
A.J. Hinch, Tigers 0.0

There was a time when you would never be able to get away with hiring a manager who never played in the majors. Those days are well and truly gone, of course. There are thirteen current managers who never played in the majors, and consequently have 0 WAR. One of them, Mike Shildt, never even played professional baseball. I hope I'm not supposed to regard any of these fellows as being better players than the last four fromer major-league players, who each score Less than Zero. Because that would be really stupid. Why, it's almost as stupid as the notion that someone who was actually good enough to play major league baseball has negative value. That's an insult to the players, and an affront to common sense.

Dan Kelly, Pirates      -0.2
Torey Lovullo, D'backs -0.9
Terry Francona, Reds -3.0
Kevin Cash, Rays -3.1

The current crop of managers do cover every position on the diamond, which is actually somewhat unusual. Most of them are former catchers, of course, and most of them were backups. Of the 11 former catchers, only Wilson was a long time major league regular (Vogt had a couple of seasons playing that much in Oakland.) Bochy, Melvin, Cash, and Hinch were career backups; Schneider, Thomson, McCullough, Snitker and Quatraro never made it to the majors. Terry Francona, a lefty batter with no power whatsoever, is the only first baseman. Torey Lovullo, like Counsell and Cairo, was mostly a second baseman.  Boone was a third baseman, as was Tony Mansolino of the Orioles. Alex Cora was mostly a shortstop, as were another four men who never played in the majors: Mendoza of the Mets, Espada of the Astros, Marmol of the Cardinals, and Schaeffer of the Rockies. Dan Kelly of the Pirates was mostly a left fielder, which is fun. After all, left fielders don't normally become managers (they're too busy thinking about their next time at bat.) Kotsay was a centre fielder, as were Dave Roberts and Rocco Baldelli. Will Venable played more right field than anywhere else, as did Ray Montgomery (running the Angels in Ron Washington's absence) in his minor league career. And Pat Murphy of the Brewers was a pitcher in the minors. 

Counsell's Cubs are a very good team, of course, and one assumes that they're all-in 2025, having paid a goodly price for what could turn out to be just one year of Kyle Ticker. Alas for them, they happen to be in the same division as the team with the best record in baseball, who at  this moment are the hottest team in baseball. Two weeks ago, the Cubs were tied for first place. Today they're six games back of the Brewers, and contemplating a Wild Card showdown with... the Dodgers? The Mets? The Cubs score tons of runs, led by Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Michael Busch. But their pitchers don't impress overmuch - Matthew Boyd, at age 34, is having a career year, which is especially impressive when you remember how it all started for him. But he's never before had a season even close to what he's done for the 2025 Cubs. Cade Horton, their first round pick in 2022, is having a very impressive rookie season and Shota Imanaga has been just as good. But there's not a whole lot else and the bullpen looks a little thin.

Matchups

Tue 12 Aug - Brown (5-7, 6.04) vs Berrios (8-4, 3.89)
Wed 13 Aug - Horton (6-1, 3.18) vs Gausman (8-8, 3.85)
Thu 14 Aug - Boyd (11-5, 2.45) vs Scherzer (2-2, 4.21)


Chicago (Cubs) at Toronto, August 12-14 | 14 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#466017) #
I will always think of Counsell as a Florida Marlin.

The Jays could really use 6 strong from Berrios tonight, because despite the day off their bullpen is kinda tired after the quick Lauer pull. Rodriguez, Dominguez, and Fisher would all be on their 3rd time in 4 days if they are used tonight, and Varland threw 28 on Sunday. Nance, Little, and Fluharty are the fresh arms.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#466018) #
Funny - ex-Jay Justin Turner is on the Cubs. 77 wRC+ mostly as a DH/1B with 20 innings at 3B as well. They also have ex-Jays Reese McGuire (93 wRC+ in 89 PA), Jon Berti (42 wRC+), Matthew Boyd (2.45 ERA 3.13 FIP 3.81 xFIP over 23 starts 135 2/3 IP - his first year over 100 IP since 2019). They have ex-Jays minor leaguer Forrest Wall in AAA along with Spencer Turnbull. Nate Pearson was sent back down, along with Zach Pop. Probably others who I missed on my quick look at FG roster resource.
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#466019) #
I think of Counsell as a Brewer. Though looking it up he didn't put on the jersey until 33 or stick until 36 (but lasted until 40).

Didn't realize that Miguel Cairo had taken over as interim manager for the Nationals after David Martinez was let go. I thought I remember something about Cairo pausing for a moment before taking the interim job out of respect for his colleague Martinez.

Interesting that Pat Murphy is the only MLB manager who pitched professionally. Makes one wonder why half the players in the league (pitchers) aren't generally considered managerial candidates later in life (but backup catchers & plucky utility infielders are).
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#466020) #
That is a real rogues' gallery of former Jays John.

I had completely forgotten about Spencer Turnbull after being mildly disappointed that he flamed out in his short Toronto tenure.

Looks like the Cubs sent him down the their AZL Complex league for a few weeks in July, bringing him up to AAA Iowa July 27th.

He's had 3 starts & it's continued to not go well - 13 IP, 6.23 ERA, 3 HR, 5 BB, 14Ks.

The >1k inning is a little promising, but it seems the same problems plaguing him with the Jays have continued in the Midwest. One wonders if there's been any uptick in velo on Round 2.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#466021) #
Continuing the discussion from the LAD thread about reliever usage. My take on Hoffman and leverage. I am of the view that Hoffman is their best reliever and will have a noticeable lead if the club evens out his load a bit. After two games in three days, don't bring him in with a 2 run or three run lead and be mindful of other options even in a closer game. To some extent, it would amount to a sharing of the traditional closer role, but Hoffman would still be the last guy on most days.

As for "evidence" that regular work ad rest, and defined roles help relievers perform better. I don’t have much. It is a fact that most years relievers perform poorest on 6 days plus rest if one looks at league splits,but as evidence goes that is weak. You'd have to look at closers, for instance to see if that pattern holds over groups of similarly qualified relievers. Further study welcome.
pooks137 - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#466022) #
Thanks for the reply Mike.

I'm certainly open-minded to adopting specific reliever workload patterns if future data emerges that supports it.

As I mentioned many times in the old thread, my concern is further handcuffing managers like Schneider already being asked to do the impossible job of not overusing guys/not letting guys sit too long/picking the perfect reliever sequence to win ballgames.

It's possible teams like the Jays have their own proprietary internal analytics supporting some of the things they do.

But a lot of the "don't pitch 3 days in a row" or pitch counts per inning/start, while seemingly common sense towards injury prevention, also seem to have large components of arbitrariness to how they are implemented.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#466024) #
I would be shocked if there are many organizations left that aren't using machine learning to aid in determining workload distribution. With the enormous amount of pitch tracking data available, most orgs will no doubt be using trends in release points, extension, spin rates, movement, pitch combinations/utilization etc. to model pitcher fatigue and performance/injury risk.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#466026) #
Kudos to the Cubs for the Matt Boyd signing. He was never more than a decent 3/4 when he was healthy. This year his 4 seamer velo at an alltime high, but his K% the lowest in years. But he's not walking anyone and keeping the ball in the yard. How rare is it for a starter to have their career year at age 34?
Glevin - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#466027) #
Agree with Hodgie. Every decent team does it so there must be a lot of data around it. We're past the era of vibes (except for a few teams.)
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#466030) #
I am sure that there is data and analysis, but the analysis is not subject to a robust peer review process. A long time ago, Jonny German and I wrote an article here in the context of Barry Larkin's Hall of Fame case, with what might be termed a sabermetric analysis of Larkin's defence and essentially confirmed the view suggested by the Total Zone numbers then publicly available (that he was an above-average but not historically great defender). The article drew comment and helpful criticism, public and private, from the finest sabermetricians around.

The Berrios/Kikuchi decision from the playoffs a few years ago was a little window into the process that goes on now for some teams. We don't know exactly what happened, but we do know that the "interface" between analytics and on-the-ground decision-making was sub-optimal, and that the peer-review of the analytics was likely also to be sub-optimal.

I do not know if the same issues apply to reliever usage decisions, but my subjective impression from the way teams act is that they do.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#466031) #
I am sure that there is data and analysis, but the analysis is not subject to a robust peer review process. A long time ago, Jonny German and I wrote an article here in the context of Barry Larkin's Hall of Fame case, with what might be termed a sabermetric analysis of Larkin's defence and essentially confirmed the view suggested by the Total Zone numbers then publicly available (that he was an above-average but not historically great defender). The article drew comment and helpful criticism, public and private, from the finest sabermetricians around.

The Berrios/Kikuchi decision from the playoffs a few years ago was a little window into the process that goes on now for some teams. We don't know exactly what happened, but we do know that the "interface" between analytics and on-the-ground decision-making was sub-optimal, and that the peer-review of the analytics was likely also to be sub-optimal.

I do not know if the same issues apply to reliever usage decisions, but my subjective impression from the way teams act is that they do.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#466032) #
According to xERA and xFIP, Boyd had about as good a year in 2019 with Detroit as he is having with the Cubs in 2025. The major difference appears to be the quality of the team and its defence behind him (he's also been somewhat lucky in his HRs allowed). He was a strikeout pitcher with Detroit, but suffered from both a high HR/FB rate and a high BABIP especially for a fly ball pitcher.

It reminds me of Red Ruffing's career, and another data point which suggests that team defence and pitching effectiveness are not entirely independent factors in run prevention.

In short, give Pete Crow-Armstrong an assist.
AWeb - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#466033) #
Reliever usage in terms of days of rest is full of confounding variables, like the fact that a good reliever who had 5-6 days off is probably nursing an injury a bit, so bad performance happens because of (Rest x Injury) rather than anything obvious. It's rare in the past decade for a regular pen member to get a week off just because the situations didn't line up for them. The past two (?) years of tightening up the "use reliever until done, put back to minors" roster shuffle would be tough to account for as well. A lot of non-constant background conditions make analysis rough. 
Also, I rarely chime in here these days, but I have been reading since I lived in Toronto more than 2 decades ago. Just want to thank the people who keep the site running and the authors/commenters who make it a great place on the internet. 
John Northey - Tuesday, August 12 2025 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#466034) #
I'm guessing with pitching we'll be looking at some form of tandem starters at some point (September or playoffs) which is what they attempted (poorly) in the playoffs last time.

So lets look at our current staff and how they are doing 1-2-3 times through the lineup using OPS against (PA in brackets).
  • Gausman: 615 (207)-636 (204)-705 (134)-3 PA 4th time
  • Berrios: 683 (215)-707 (212)-823 (136)-1 PA 4th time
  • Bassitt: 710 (216)-860 (212)-697 (140)-6 PA 4th time
  • Lauer: 769 (117)-664 (110)-894 (37)-2 PA 4th time
  • Scherzer: 636 (81)-720 (74)-1044 (34)-no PA 4th time
  • Bieber: 616 (1202)-660 (1169)-702 (932)-777 (72) (lifetime)
Unfortunate Bieber has to be lifetime instead of this year but really - I can't imagine the Jays will push him under any circumstances. Looking at these stats you can see 3rd time through is bad for all but Gausman (drops in effectiveness but isn't bad) and Bassitt (who has issues 2nd time through), really bad for Scherzer, and just bad for Lauer. So post-season doing tandems for all might not be a bad idea - mix up skill sets to maximize the discomfort for opposing hitters. Bassitt-Gausman (slow crap followed by hard stuff), Scherzer-Lauer (vet and kid), Bieber-Berrios (power/control mix). Just an initial thought. Over the next month+ a lot of other ideas will emerge - some good, some dumb. Regardless, they NEVER should do what they did in '23 with a starter coming in mid-inning. Starters should always start a fresh inning, use a 'real' reliever to get out of any jams as they are used to coming in like that, starters aren't.
Chicago (Cubs) at Toronto, August 12-14 | 14 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.