Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

The Jays roll into Seattle to play the Mariners for the first time since last October. You remember that series, the one where the road team won every game? Vlad was the series MVP and Jeff Hoffman saved the final game. Cal Raleigh hit four home runs in that series. Now, eight months later Vlad is in the dumps, Hoffman has lost his job and Raleigh is hitting .163. We have seen numerous "what's wrong with Vlad?" stories here in Toronto. Change the name to Cal and you know what's in the Seattle Newspapers.

Despite Raleigh's struggles the Mariners are tied in first place in the west but they are just two games over .500.



SCHEDULE

Friday: Cease vs Castillo

Saturday: Bieber vs Gilbert + Hancock

Sunday: Yesavage vs Kirby


Starting pitching has been the Mariners strength for a few seasons now and they find themselves with six starting pitchers. So Saturday sees Logan Gilbert and Emerson Hancock piggybacking against the Jays. The Jays thought they would be in this position with six starters but that didn't work out.

Looking at the team stat lines the Jays and Mariners have identical OPS's but Seattle's ERA is .43 points better than the Jays.

Will this series be a repeat of last fall?

Jays at Mariners: July 3-5: ALCS Repeat? | 72 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Gerry - Friday, July 03 2026 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#479723) #
Max Scherzer threw three innings, 49 pitches for Vancouver this afternoon.
scottt - Friday, July 03 2026 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#479724) #
I remember the road team winning the first 4 games only, thankfully.

George hit the Springer Dinger in the 7th inning of the last game.
Julio Rodriguez made the last out chasing every Hoffman sliders and screaming in the clubhouse afterward.


The story early on in the WBC was Raleigh disrespecting all his teammates playing on other teams.
Arozarena for Mexico, Naylor for Canada, etc,
Besides Raleigh, Naylor has a 95 OPS+. Arozarena had a slow start but has made up for it.
Castillo looks like he may by heading towards the end of his career.
He's sporting an 81 ERA+ at 33, is back in 2027 for another 24M and maybe also in 28 if he doesn't spend a bunch of time on the IL to keep his option from vesting.
Their closer, Munoz, has a 4.60 ERA.

BlueJayWay - Friday, July 03 2026 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#479725) #
You remember that series, the one where the road team won every game?

Can't say I remember that....
scottt - Friday, July 03 2026 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#479726) #
Colt Emerson is their top prospect and future shortstop, so they moved Crawford to 3B.
Leo Rivas started as their 3B but is on the IL.
scottt - Friday, July 03 2026 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#479728) #
And Julio Rodriguez is on the concussion IL.
He was hit in the head by an errant throw yesterday.
Or the back of his helmet was.
Eephus - Friday, July 03 2026 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#479730) #
What an impressive AB and double by Kid Keys. That is a short yet very powerful LH stroke he’s got there, allowed him to really stay quick on the hard throwing veteran Castillo.
Nigel - Friday, July 03 2026 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#479731) #
Totally agree. An AB by Keys to be excited about. I was as impressed by the takes and the fouls that preceded the hit as the hit.
scottt - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#479732) #
I think the ump showed Arozarena why you don't blow your challenges on borderline calls.
electric carrot - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#479733) #
I predict that Friday's 2-0 win is the beginning of the turnaround for the Jays. I think we will have a happy July and August with this team.
electric carrot - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#479734) #
Ok, may as well pin Canada Day's 9-3 win against the Mets as the start of the Jay turnaround. That gives it a bit more symbolic umph!
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#479735) #
Today's game will be the pivotal one. Which Bieber shows up? Can Nays best two Mariners starters in the same game? Can Vlad build momentum off his hit last night?
mathesond - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#479736) #
Does Sean have the Keys to victory?
June Northey - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#479739) #
I love that Vlad seems to be learning not to do dumb challenges like Arozarena did last night. On a 3-0 count an obvious ball was called a strike and Vlad just smiled but didn't challenge. Next pitch was ball 4 so it worked out. I think he is learning not to sweat silly stuff like the automatic strike on 3-0 counts. A very good sign.
chris_jays - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#479740) #
Since June 12th when Heineman was DFA'd, wRC+ as follows:

Heineman: 80
Kirk: 60
Valenzuela: 55
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#479743) #
13 plate appearances for Heineman in that time span which has helped to get his average up to .167 and made him more valuable by wRC+ than bums like Guerrero Jr, Bellinger, Chapman, Hoerner, Ward, Langeliers, Clement, Yellich, Lowe, Altuve, Naylor, Chisholm Jr, Albies, just behind other bums like Abrams, Carroll etc...Heineman doesn't even qualify to be ranked on the Fangraphs page.

chris_jays - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#479744) #
Not sure the point you’re making Dalimon, but I don’t see what the plan was with letting Heineman go given they’ve started Kirk 5 of the last 6 games.

If that was the plan, send Valenzuela down so he can continue developing in AAA.
pooks137 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#479747) #
Which Bieber shows up?

Shane Bieber with 42-y/o-Max-Scherzer-esque command is similarly not a MLB caliber SP.

The Arozarena GS pitch wasn't even that poorly located. But it was all the suboptimally-placed pitches to all the bottom of the order hitters with 2 outs earlier in the inning that quickly had Bieber throwing a career-high # of 2nd inning pitches. And quickly putting this one out of reach .

dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#479748) #
My point is using WRC+ based on 13 plate appearances doesn't offer a useful comparison between Kirk, Heineman or Valenzuela. You didn't make any mention of playing time as a reason for keeping Heineman and sending Valenzuela down instead suggesting that Heineman has posted the highest number in that period.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#479749) #
Besides, he's learning today how to manage a former elite starter at the end of a his career...
chris_jays - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#479750) #
It's pretty clear Valenzuela should be down in AAA playing every day and building up, especially during a season such as this one.
Kirk also looks horrible since his return so combined with Val's poor play lately, they are getting literally nothing from their catchers.
June Northey - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#479752) #
chris_jays - what time frame are you using? June 16-July 3rd Valenzuela 37 wRC+ over 23 PA (6 games), Kirk 15 wRC+ over 46 PA (13 games) - that sucks. But expand to June 1st to July 3rd and it is Valenzuela 127 wRC+ (55 PA 15 G), Kirk 60 wRC+ (55 PA 15 G). Cutting to sub 15 games and you are talking teeny tiny sample sizes. Vlad June 1st to July 3rd is at 47 wRC+, and we all know he is a FAR better hitter than that. Urias is at 227 and we know he isn't anywhere near that good a hitter.

FYI: Heinemann was at 15 wRC+ as a Jay, 80 in LAA over 5 games (13 PA) - ooooo, so amazing. His hot streak is basically him hitting like Gimenez, lifting his wRC+ to 23 on the season.

Nah, the killer right now is guys like Corbin, Gausman, Bieber, all sucking since June 1st (8.03, 6.47, 9.00 after today). I expect Gausman to get back to normal (showing signs of it already) Corbin is who he is, and Bieber looks washed up, much like Scherzer. Maybe the two of them combined can fill the 5 hole in the rotation. Maybe.

The Jays really need to find young strong starting pitching for '27 and beyond - Yesavage, Miles are both promising, Cease is older and locked in for awhile, Berrios we are stuck with in '27/'28, Ponce might be good (impossible to know), Tiedemann & Bloss are the injured kids who could be good but no sane person will count on them, others like Stanifer and King are '28 options or later most likely. So with that we have a '27 staff set with a couple backups in AAA most likely. Still, finding a solid guy who can start for '27-'29 or longer would be nice although I doubt the Jays go nuts and get Skubal. I could see the Jays chasing Logan Webb from SF (would be expensive, he makes sub $20 mil per through 2028). Robbie Ray is a 1 year rental there (K/9 has dropped, BB/9 up, HR/9 up, but 3.39 ERA somehow - I wouldn't go for him). Checking SF as they are expected to be in dump mode (high payroll, no chance in LAD/SDP/AZD division - 2 teams that spend and 1 that is pretty smart). The Rockies have little worth trading for, the Mets might be worth chasing as they blew a TON and suck.

Very safe to say the Jays aren't looking for rentals (like Skubal) but for long term pieces. Contenders with a surplus at one spot, but a terrible hole somewhere might be interested - anyone need a LH OF? A mediocre middle reliever? An older starter who might have playoff magic left? Those are pieces the Jays can offer to a contender without looking like they are giving up. (optics very important or Sportsnet ratings will crash)

I think the Jays still could sneak into the playoffs and make a run but we need Vlad and the rotation to be at their best for that to happen. I don't see it as likely, but possible. And I like the signs for '27 and beyond.
June Northey - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#479753) #
FYI: ex-Jay Jordan Romano was just called up by the Rockies. Hopefully he can produce there. Just 1 IP in AAA for them, 1 walk, 0 K, 2 balks (how?), 4 batters faced, 0 runs, 0 hits.
scottt - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#479754) #
Valenzuela is going to be the backup catcher for years to come. He doesn't need regular playing to get better at playing twice a week.

Kirk usually takes a month to get going.
The concerning part is how he hasn't thrown runners out.


hypobole - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#479756) #
Blue Jays have had the best catcher defence in the majors.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#479757) #
Vlad won the vote to be the AL 1B starter, but immediately announced that he's not going due to back issues.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#479758) #
Man I'm so disappointed with Bieber. I really thought he'd capture most of his form from his prolific years. I felt very similarly about his upside as I did with Tulowitzki after he was acquired but that never panned out as I hoped.

Now I'm going to hope for Santander bounce back and Tiedemann or King promotion to help the team. Yes I am a sane person, I think.
chris_jays - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#479759) #
June, respectfully I disagree for the most part.
Bieber, while not great, has only had 3 starts (1 of which was great, 2 poor) so has had little impact on the season results. Corbin has been relatively serviceable for the most part for a back-end 5th starter.

The absolute biggest reason the Jays are struggling is Vlad given his role, contract, playing time, position, and extremely poor results this year. Kirk also has had a bigger negative impact than Corbin or Bieber as well. Varsho and the rest of the OF are well below league average as well.

Quite frankly, it's the offence that's killing them this season.
TamRa - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#479761) #
"Vlad won the vote to be the AL 1B starter, but immediately announced that he's not going due to back issues."

Good. Maybe he'll take some time off from taking hundreds of daily hacks in the batting cage too
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#479762) #
I think Kirk deserves some points for handling the pitching staff and calling great games like the one last night with Cease on the bump. His framing is pretty damn good and he helped get Cease full run with his framing to get the Ms to forfeit their challenges.

Here's what so think went wrong so far as this team could be at .500 despite Springer and Vlad's down seasons.

1) Schneider and Hoffman tag team decisions contributed to a handful of losses and I would include the pick off play to 3B against the Astros here...most of this is on the manager for me

2) Valenzuela and Heineman gave up two games based on throwaways

3) Vlad had no protection in April and May with Springer injured, Bo gone, Barger gone and Kirk gone and Okamoto playing terrible. It caused him to press and now he's all messed up and wonky.

4) the starters have too much pressure to be perfect and as a result they often can't go deeper

5) the bullpen is overtaxed

In another universe the line up had Kyle Tucker or another power bat to help balance things out and the extra offense generated alleviated the need to rely on Hoffman so much or to push the starters and bullpen into overdrive.

Long story short, in my humblest of opinions, the good manager lost the team at least 5 wins without making up the difference and the GM took a wait and see approach to improving the bullpen and line up unless you think calling up guys like McAdoo, Pinango or trading for SWR constitutes significant improvement.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#479763) #
This team has 14 games left until July 25th roughly one week before the trade deadline. They're 5 games on the wrong side of even, and take on the Ms followed by SF, SD, CWS and TB. 14 games. You have to think that the bare minimum for the FO not to sell would mean .500 by that date which requires a 10-4 record to put them 1 game over .500.

Maybe the front office is generous and decides if they get to .500 before the Rays series (10 games from now instead of 14 games if after that series) then they will add. So they would have to go 8-2 against SF, SD and CWS and tomorrow's game.

Long shot for any of these scenarios to happen with Bieber not up to snuff and the offense not putting up enough offense.
Nigel - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#479764) #
It’s sort of becoming academic. I’m not sure they have anything too valuable to sell at the deadline. Gausman probably gets you something but not what you might have thought 2 months ago. Given the returns are likely to be minimal I’m expecting a quiet deadline. They certainly shouldn’t be buying rentals. As others have said, it’s not even an easy team to upgrade as this is the farthest from a “stars and scrubs” team I’ve ever seen the Jays field. This is literally a team of league average starters at every position (other than one OF spot).
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#479765) #
Nigel, the big get would be a high draft pick after a sell off and another piece added like Parker.
Nigel - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#479767) #
That’s my point though - who can you sell to generate that? I don’t see anyone on the roster who could generate a premium return like that. Gausman and Varsho are the two pending UFA’s that have the highest value. I don’t see either getting you a premium return and in Varsho’s case, the Jays may need to resign him because they don’t have any clear options to replace him.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#479768) #
My point is if they sell they sell, lose a bunch of games and draft in the top 10 and get a legit prospect.
June Northey - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#479769) #
I don't see a 2024 selloff here - the team would need to slump even worse for that. I see minor tinkering - trying to get pitchers who are controllable for a few years, maybe a hitter prospect who is far enough away to not be too expensive (they hit the jackpot on Valenzuela for example). Trade parts are LH OF'ers who are 100-110 wRC+ types (pretty much the entire OF and backups outside of Straw). Gausman is a low odds to be traded unless the Jays get a great offer as he seems popular with fans and the clubhouse - trading him is raising a white flag on 2026. Varsho is similar as playing Lukes or Straw everyday in CF is far from ideal and I don't know of any prospects who are close who could do the job (Clase isn't it).

If the Jays are close (within 5 of the WC) I expect them to stand pat, minor tinkering. If they are more than 5 out of the WC then a selloff might happen ala '24 (bye bye to Gausman & Varsho plus Scherzer & Bieber if anyone wants them). 3 games out right now, if they drop to 5+ then a top 10 pick is possible (protected from losing it). Hard to see a situation where they are serious buyers (ie: after rentals, giving up top 5 prospects).
June Northey - Saturday, July 04 2026 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#479770) #
Btw, Jays are 1/2 a game out of the bottom 10 right now. Yikes.
Nigel - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 02:21 AM EDT (#479771) #
Fair enough but they may get a decently high pick without selling. I think a middle ground makes sense. I’d see if Varsho was prepared to sign a short(ish) extension (unlikely). If not, I’d move him. The optics wouldn’t be great but wouldn’t be a “white towel” situation. It also wouldn’t prevent a late season run at a wild card (again unlikely but youneverknow).
Michael - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 03:50 AM EDT (#479772) #
It is good that Vlad is taking the AS break off to get the rest and hopefully get healthy. There's a little part of my mind that thinks what would be best for Vlad would be to be put in the HR hitting contest. I remember one year it seemed like the HR hitting contest/ASB took Vlad out of his pre-ASG rhythm and sort of left him out of sorts for the 2nd half, but this year if the HR hitting contest got him lifting/driving balls more that may take him out of his funk and get back into rhythm. But the more realistic thinking is that this is silly and that health and luck are what is needed to get Vlad back to being the late last season Vlad we all want.
Glevin - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#479773) #
It very much depends how the next month go. If they kind of meander along not falling completely out of it, not making a move, I expect they'll mostly just hold on to what they have.maybe make a minor move or two, or add a longer term piece and hope things turn around. If they look good, then I am sure they will be aggressive and add. If they fall out of it they should trade every pending free agent plus guys like Hoffman and Lukes if they have decent trade value. There really isn't much the front office can do except wait and hope Vlad, Springer, and Kirk stop being terrible.
electric carrot - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#479774) #
"It is good that Vlad is taking the AS break off to get the rest and hopefully get healthy."

It sounds like Vladdy's back is not right. Does that puts his season so far in context?
pooks137 - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#479775) #
If they fall out of it they should trade every pending free agent plus guys like Hoffman and Lukes

I don't really get why some people are including names like Lukes & Clement in the trade deadline retooling package subtractions.

Of course, any player should be available if an offer blows Ross away. A little bit like the Twins unexpectedly dumping Louis Varland last year.

But the Jays, if sellers, will be simply retooling for 2027 rather than rebuilding. The 2027 team will still need cheap-ish, pre-FA league average types like Lukes & Clement to fill out the rest of the roster at below-market rates. They presumably will go back out there to FA & trading for salary dumps during the offseason to try compete again in 2027. With more expensive adds to improve and big holes in the roster to replace key performers like Gausman & Varsho. And an already Top 5 bloated, record-breaking payroll. The sellouts, offseason ticket sales & WS bump will also diminish in 2027 if the Jays don't go on another 2015-like post-ASB run.

While I'm not particularly attached to Lukes, he's really the only fringe MLB CF on the 40-man roster for 2027 unless they pick up Straw's 8 mil team option.

dalimon5 - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#479776) #
Pools, you're the only person who mentioned Clement and Lukes was mentioned once only by Nigel and the context misprint, he brought up Lukes only in the context that there isn't much for the Jays to trade away of value other than someone like him (controllable player).
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#479777) #
*Pooks and ignore the other autocorrect typos from the safari/iPhone corrections.
vw_fan17 - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#479778) #
I'm not saying they should, but they could probably get a pretty decent return for Varland. 
Nigel - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#479779) #
I wouldn’t be trading Lukes or Clement. There isn’t a near term replacement in the system for either and both remain on value contracts/control. I think you need to avoid long term extensions for both though. As I said, Varsho is the guy who might be part of the team going forward who you might consider trading through a combination of having some current value and the low likelihood that he would accept a deal length that would match his declining value.
92-93 - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#479780) #
The likely return for a below-average hitting Varsho is not worth more to the Jays franchise than improving their shot at a valuable playoff spot and the qualifying offer's draft pick compensation.
Glevin - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#479781) #
I probably wouldn't trade Lukes either because I don't think you're getting more than his value to the team back but if you were, yes, I'd trade him or almost anyone. He's 32 next week and Jays need to trade some of their pretty good to good players to try to get good to great players somewhere. I'd also trade Ernie if I got great value for him but again, I don't think that's likely either. Some guys aren't movable (Vlad, Berrios, Santander, Gimenez unless you are eating a lot of salary), but apart from those guys, I'd trade anyone if the value was good enough.
92-93 - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#479782) #
Otto Lopez leads MLB in hits, doubles, and average (.341).

Leo Jimenez is hitting .200/.294/.242 with 4 doubles and is playing below average defense.
Nigel - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#479785) #
92-93 - that may well be the case, in which case you wouldn’t move him. It would be silly not to find out though. The idea that his return would be so modest does raise questions about what his free agency market might be. Several of us had suggested that a 3 year 55-60m deal would be good for the Jays. That’s likely his floor (in my view). If that’s his market then those kind of players usually have a relatively robust rental market.
Glevin - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#479786) #
Jays would get (under current CBA) a pick after fourth round for Varsho. I don't know how much you could get for him in a trade but I'm pretty confident that you could easily beat that as a return. Add in that maybe in next CBA, there might be no draft pick compensation at all,
lexomatic - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#479787) #
The value for trading a cost controlled guy like Lukes or Clement is $ There likely isn't present day value that's equal but future value might be okay. It just depends.
Or a bad $ value but equal performance attachednwith future value.
hypobole - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#479788) #
if the jays trade all free agents salaries, will it get them under the CBT threshold?
chris_jays - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#479789) #
I'm in agreement with Glevin on this 92-93. Given their compensation would be a pick after the 4th round (at best, depending on if they sign anyone), you'd have to imagine the return for Varsho would be significantly higher, plus the potential cost savings that may bring them under the CBT threshold.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#479790) #
Honestly, it's wild to me that anyone thinks this team is any good and should buy at the deadline.

In a BEST case scenario, the Jays make the WC3 playoff spot and face elite SP in a best of 3. Did you see how the offence did this weekend in a similar type series?
92-93 - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#479791) #
Both of you focused solely on the second part of the value I outlined. The Jays don’t have the luxury of running their franchise like a team in a fantasy keeper league. They’ve built fancy new sections in 100 and 200 that require competitive teams to sell those pricey season subscriptions. Nobody is suggesting this team should buy, but if they’re within striking distance of a playoff spot they don’t need to sell off assets to acquire the kind of mediocre talent they got at the ‘24 deadline. Those players just don’t move the needle. I’m all for trading Varsho for a top prospect, sure, I’m just skeptical that kind of offer will be on the table in a few weeks. The Rays didn’t get much for two years of Arozarena (and the Marlins didn’t get much for Chisholm).
Glevin - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#479792) #
Yes, if they have a reasonable chance at the playoffs, I think they will likely hold but right now, I don't see that as likely. This offense is just utterly pathetic and has been for some time. If they are out of it by any reasonable metric, they should absolutely trade Varsho.
SK in NJ - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#479793) #
Before today's game, the Jays as a team ranked 22nd in wRC+, 29th in BB%, 26th in wOBA, 30th in xwOBA, 23rd in HR, 28th in ISO, and 28th in BsR. It's an offense that doesn't draw walks, doesn't hit for power, and doesn't run well. They are also middle of the pack in pitching and defense, but middle of the pack seems like a Mount Everest compared to where the offense is.

We have 10 years of data to show what Ross Atkins does in situations like this, so at most he will trade the impending free agents and keep everyone else. That's assuming he doesn't buy at the deadline, which seems like a ridiculous decision at this point, but can't be ruled out if the Jays are within a few games of a WC spot even while significantly under .500.
Nigel - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#479794) #
I was at the game today. The body language of the team even before the game started was not good. Very little of the usual pregame joking around.
TamRa - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#479795) #
I anticipate some of both baring a charge or a collapse. I mentioned a while back trying to get the Giants to package Ray with Schmidt. I'm not sure they would but it's an Atkins type of move, eating the money on Ray (he's not underwater but some teams just won't add that much money at the deadline) in order to get a versatile guy with three more years of control. A patch for today and a piece for the longer term.

At the same time, I have to think that he'd try to trade Sanchez (if he's recovered) just because Pinango is basically the same guy. Pending free agents are a question mark - I'd be stunned if he even tried to trade Springer, pretty surprised if he got an offer he liked for Varsho, and probably have a stroke if he traded Gausman.

Bieber? Sure, if he even has a market left by then. Corbin? Of course, in theory but I don't need to state the obvious.
---------
I suppose if it was an epic collapse and they run under .500 between now and the deadline then maybe he'd suck it up and trade Varsho and Gausman. But otherwise I expect a mixed bag of trades.

Oh, and he'll hunt around for optionable younger pitchers with some control - like Varland but not as good. But you can't predict that because generally that's exactly what others teams hate to trade.
TamRa - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#479796) #
"if the jays trade all free agents salaries, will it get them under the CBT threshold?"

Gausman - $23m
Springer - 24.166
Bieber - 16
Varsho - 10.75
Straw - 7.4
Sanchez - 6 (not a free agent but if you're cleaning house there's no reason not to trade him)

That's roughly $87.3 million but you're only trading about a third of each deal. Or $29.1 million.

Roster Resource has their CBT payroll estimate at $318,844,602

Which is above the 4th and highest threshold ($304m). Trading that much salary would drop them below that, but not below the third one ($284m). If they could get someone to take Gimenez they could probably drop below the third threshold. Or Santander but, ya know.
scottt - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#479797) #
Why isn't Romano's nickname Cheese?
Nigel - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#479799) #
Sobering. Ty France has a higher OPS than any Jay hitter:(.
June Northey - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#479801) #
If trades happen, and they will, I hope for a surprise like Valenzuela to be found.

Right now the Jays are 3 out of the WC, in 20th place. 1/2 a game out of 21st (where you get a protected first round pick) and 22nd (O's and Reds), 1 1/2 ahead of the A's, 2 ahead of the Red Sox, 2 1/2 ahead of the Tigers - fall behind all of those and they'd be in 6th worst. Only once the Jays had the 6th overall pick and took Ricky Romero (looked like a potential star for a few years, made the ASG, then poof). Never had the 7th overall, 8th they have taken Felipe López (1 time AS) & JoJo Parker, 9th Matt Stark (had a great spring training one year) & Jeff Hoffman (1 time AS), 10th Phil Bickford (DNS, 0.3 bWAR).

So yeah, a top 10 pick is nice, but odds are they won't fall lower than 6th worst. Given the Jays history that might get a very good player (3 All-Stars) or a flop (2 of those) with 1 to be determined out of the 6 guys drafted 6-10.
June Northey - Sunday, July 05 2026 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#479802) #
FYI: 11th (where they are now) got them Deck McGuire, Max Pentecost, and Alek Manoah. 2 flops and a 'so f'ing close to being great - all-star, 3rd in Cy voting, then 75 ERA+ over 119 IP over 3 ML seasons plus 1 missed season (9.82 ERA in 7 1/3 IP for LAA this year, currently in AAA).
krose - Monday, July 06 2026 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#479803) #
New roster for Aug-Sept.
SP- Cease, Yesavage, Bieber, Miles/Corbin, Bloss,: Scherzer, Estrada, Dallas

RP- Varland, Rogers, Fluharty, Fischer, Nance, Macko, Little

C- Kirk, Valenzuela, 1B- Guerrero, Keys, 2B- Clement, Urias, 3B- Okamoto, SS- Gimenez

OF- Harry, Pinangio, Lukes, Straw,

DH- Jimenez
Traded: Gausman, Hoffman, Varsho, Springer
Michael - Monday, July 06 2026 @ 02:52 AM EDT (#479804) #
A reminder that teams are never as good as they look when winning, nor as bad as they look while losing. Yeah, the team has been ok at best this year and looked bad of late; however, there aren't that many changes from the team that was an inning away from winning everything last year. If the all star break gives people a break and chance to get healthy, and if a few key people can live up to an above average delivery from here on out the Jays can still easily make the playoffs where anything can happen in short series.
Mike Green - Monday, July 06 2026 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#479806) #
It's obviously been a rough season so far.  In an ordinary year, one of Bieber and Scherzer would have turned out to be, at a minimum, an acceptable back-up plan.  Even that hasn't worked out.  

I however remain an optimist.  Sean Keys looks good to me despite his own adjustment issue.  Guerrero Jr. and Springer will probably be better the remainder of the season than they have been.  They will not win 100 games as I predicted at the start of the year, but I can't see why they would be sellers at the deadline (which is a different thing from being opportunistic about buying or selling).  



85bluejay - Monday, July 06 2026 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#479807) #
The American league is so weak and the Jays have so much money tied up in their roster that it will be tough for them to sell.
Nigel - Monday, July 06 2026 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#479809) #
I think that there is very little chance that the Jays will be outright sellers but I will be surprised if there isn't some attempt at "reshuffling the deck". There is very little help coming in the near term from the farm and there are some obvious holes to fill (SP and OF). Of course, there may be more and better opportunities to do this in the offseason.

I think that if you zoom out a bit and see that absolutely everything went right last year and almost everything has gone wrong this year then reversion to the mean should set this team up to be a solid WC contender going forward (even assuming a much stronger AL next year and maybe even the rest of this). Notwithstanding the gloom that seems to have set over the team's attitude and that of the fanbase, there's hope for better days in the sense that their best hitter (Vladdy) just isn't this bad and things will change. I think that they have mismanaged the C playing time since Kirk has returned (it was never going to be easy to hit after that injury) but Kirk will slowly get some strength back in his hand and he will start to hit. This roster is just not this bad.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 06 2026 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#479812) #
We are getting some very rational posts now. They're not this bad and definitely not as good as they were last year. Watch them go 5-1 in California now. I've never seen the fanbase so depressed and ready to move on as I am seeing now, well not since 2024 I suppose.

Let's look for Springers return to jolt the offense.
uglyone - Monday, July 06 2026 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#479813) #
Plausible Best Lineups, using...



This Year's Stats Only:

1. RF Lukes 196pa, .332obp, 106wrc+, 3.0war650
2. 3B Okamoto 355pa, .315obp, 114wrc+, 3.5war650
3. LF Sanchez 234pa, .315obp, 108wrc+, 0.3war650
4. 2B Clement 345pa, .316obp, 107wrc+, 1.9war650
5. C Valenzuela 176pa, .320obp, 106wrc+, 5.9war650
6. CF Varsho 284pa, .317obp, 102wrc+, 2.8war650
7. 1B Guerrero 359pa, .348obp, 97wrc+, 1.5war650
8. DH Springer 279pa, .308obp, 93wrc+, 0.2war650
9. SS Gimenez 295pa, .283obp, 82wrc+, 3.5war650

B. UT Pinango 160pa, .313obp, 103wrc+, 0.4war650
B. OF Straw 153pa, .298obp, 81wrc+, 1.3war650
B. IF Schneider 118pa, .282obp, 68wrc+, -2.2war650
B. C Alejandro 81pa, .247obp, 51wrc+, 1.6war650

X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. OF Barger 28pa, .214obp, 0wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Urias 22pa, .409obp, 165wrc+, 8.9war650
X. C

X. UT Keys 21pa, .190obp, 50wrc+, -3.1war650
X. UT Sosa 117pa, .207obp, 30wrc+, -4.4war650
X. UT McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 13wrc+, -5.2war650
X. OF Clase 1pa, .000obp, -100wrc+, 0.0war650



Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

1. DH Springer 540pa, .364obp, 139wrc+, 3.6war650
2. 1B Guerrero 661pa, .365obp, 120wrc+, 2.9war650
3. CF Varsho 455pa, .314obp, 114wrc+, 4.1war650
4. 3B Okamoto 355pa, .315obp, 114wrc+, 3.5war650
5. RF Lukes 446pa, .309obp, 102wrc+, 2.6war650
6. 2B Schneider 267pa, .323obp, 102wrc+, 1.5war650
7. LF Straw 284pa, .321obp, 100wrc+, 3.7war650
8. SS Clement 622pa, .302obp, 98wrc+, 2.4war650
9. C Alejandro 298pa, .312obp, 96wrc+, 4.6war650

B. UT Pinango 160pa, .313obp, 103wrc+, 0.4war650
B. OF Sanchez 467pa, .298obp, 93wrc+, 0.3war650
B. IF Gimenez 426pa, .276ibp, 74wrc+, 2.4war650
B. C Valenzuela 176pa, .320obp, 106wrc+, 5.9war659

X. UT Sosa 400pa, .271obp, 86wrc+, 0.5war650
X. OF Barger 293pa, .273obp, 78wrc+, 0.9war650
X. IF Urias 93pa, .323obp, 82wrc+, 0.7war650
X. C MacIver 59pa, .229obp, 21wrc+, -3.3war650

X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. UT Keys 21pa, .190obp, 50wrc+, -3.1war650
X. UT Santander 12pa, .250obp, 17wrc+, -5.4war650
X. UT McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 13wrc+, -5.2war650
X. OF Clase 1pa, .000obp, -100wrc+, 0.0war650



Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Projections

1. DH Springer 252pa, .334obp, 113wrc+, 2.1war650
2. LF Lukes 184pa, .335obp, 107wrc+, 2.8war650
3. 1B Guerrero 305pa, .375obp, 137wrc+, 3.8war650
4. 3B Okamoto 277pa, .321obp, 113wrc+, 3.3war650
5. RF Barger 121pa, .313obp, 106wrc+, 2.1war650
6. C Alejandro 177pa, .340obp, 110wrc+, 5.9war650
7. CF Varsho 258pa, .299obp, 101wrc+, 2.8war650
8. 2B Clement 271pa, .311obp, 99wrc+, 2.6war650
9. SS Gimenez 261pa, .307obp, 92wrc+, 3.0war650

B. UT Sanchez 159pa, .315obp, 106wrc+, 2.0war650
B. OF Straw 62pa, .298obp, 76wrc+, 1.0war650
B. IF Schneider 37pa, .328obp, 103wrc+, 1.8war650
B. C Valenzuela 123pa, .286obp, 79wrc+, 2.1war650

X. UT Keys 65pa, .295obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Pinango 72pa, .298obp, 87wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Urias 44pa, .326obp, 100wrc+, 1.5war650
X. C MacIver 3pa, .285obp, 76wrc+, 0.0war650

X. UT Santander 19pa, .309obp, 105wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Schreck 3pa, .319obp, 92wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 65pa, .276obp, 84wrc+, 1.0war650
X. IF McAdoo 9pa, .289obp, 84wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Clase 6pa, .291obp, 81wrc+, 0.0war650
dalimon5 - Monday, July 06 2026 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#479816) #
Would love for Schneider to use that line up as a baseline for now:

1. RF Lukes
2. 3B Okamoto
3. C Valenzuela
4. 1B Guerrero
5. DH Kirk
6. LF Springer
7. CF Varsho
8. 2B Clement
9. SS Gimenez
Jays at Mariners: July 3-5: ALCS Repeat? | 72 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.