Chandler Simpson is super fun. Old school leadoff hitter with insane speed.

It's nice having a long-man in the pen. Thanks to Lauer, the entire bullpen should be good to go twice this series. Green, Little, and Garcia could all use work tonight, so we'll probably see Berrios for at most 6 innings.

ESPN has the Jays facing RHPs in (at least) their next 10 games. There should be lots of playing time for Lukes and Barger.

Wonder if this will be a fun few games for Vlad - he really enjoyed regular season games in spring training facilities in '21, maybe he'll enjoy it again in '25.

I dream of the day the Jays get their own Chandler Simpson. Baltimore and TB have tons of these guys in their org.

Does anyone know who is our emergency first baseman? Vlad has played every inning since Wagner went down. Santander? Clement?

I'm guessing Barger/Heineman/Clement have taken their share of reps at 1B over the years.

Plausible Best Possible Lineup, using this year's stats only:

* 1. LF Lukes 74pa, .313babip, 133wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 177pa, .336babip, 126wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 3. DH Springer 143pa, .385babip, 163wrc+, 5.0war/650
* 4. SS Bichette 185pa, .326babip, 105wrc+, 1.8war/650
* 5. 3B Barger 59pa, .279babip, 104wrc+, 5.5war/650
* 6. C Alejandro 125pa, .314babip, 93wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 7. CF Varsho 36pa, .200babip, 97wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 8. RF Straw 73pa, .340babip, 97wrc+, 5.3war/650
* 9. 2B Clement 114pa, .315babip, 76wrc+, 2.9war/650

* B. UT Santander 160pa, .223babip, 76wrc+, -1.2war/650
* B. OF Roden 84pa, .214babip, 53wrc+, 0.8war/650
* B. IF Gimenez 143pa, .229babip, 68wrc+, 1.4war/650
* B. C Heineman 41pa, .438babip, 163wrc+, 12.7war/650

* X. UT Schneider 21pa, .143babip, 54wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 16pa, .182babip, -15wrc+, -12.2war/650
* X. IF Wagner 68pa, .250babip, 52wrc+, -2.9war/650
* X. IF Stefanic 1pa, .000babip, -100wrc+, 0.0war/650



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

* 1. LF Lukes 165pa, .377obp, 132wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 702pa, .400obp, 166wrc+, 5.3war/650
* 3. DH Santander 669pa, .302obp, 120wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 4. RF Springer 600pa, .333obp, 118wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 5. C Alejandro 426pa, .322obp, 98wrc+, 4.9war/650
* 6. CF Varsho 415pa, .280babip, 92wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 7. SS Bichette 370pa, .314obp, 94wrc+, 1.8war/650
* 8. 3B Barger 266pa, .275obp, 88wrc+, 1.5war/650
* 9. 2B Clement 493pa, .285obp, 89wrc+, 2.9war/650

* B. UT Jimenez 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+, 1.5war/650
* B. OF Straw 77pa, .311obp, 94wrc+, 5.1war/650
* B. IF Gimenez 613pa, .290obp, 79wrc+, 2.5war/650
* B. C Heineman 55pa, .364obp, 130wrc+, 9.5war/650

* X. UT Schneider 372pa, .255obp, 57wrc+, -1.2war/650
* X. OF Loperfido 237pa, .254obp, 72wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Wagner 154pa, .314obp, 93wrc+, 1.3war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 96pa, .287obp, 110wrc+, 4.7war/650

* X. UT Roden 84pa, .262obp, 53wrc+, 0.8war/650
* X. OF Clase 54pa, .283obp, 76wrc+, -1.2war/650
* X. IF Stefanic 125pa, .298obp, 62wrc+, -2.1war/650
* X. C Sanchez 96pa, .211obp, 11wrc+, -1.4war/650




Using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:

* 1. SS Bichette 485pa, .327obp, 116wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 511pa, .370obp, 143wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 3. DH Santander 496pa, .313obp, 118wrc+, 2.2war/650
* 4. RF Springer 453pa, .330obp, 113wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 5. LF Lukes 158pa, .339obp, 112wrc+, 2.9war/650
* 6. C Alejandro 333pa, .342obp, 113wrc+, 5.9war/650
* 7. 3B Barger 264pa, .313obp, 106wrc+, 3.0war/650
* 8. CF Varsho 464pa, .297obp, 104wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 9. 2B Gimenez 432pa, .319obp, 103wrc+, 4.1war/650

* B. UT Wagner 142pa, .344obp, 111wrc+, 2.3war/650
* B. OF Roden 237pa, .334obp, 108wrc+, 2.2war/650
* B. IF Clement 258pa, .301obp, 96wrc+, 2.8war/650
* B. C Heineman 130pa, .312obp, 87wrc+, 3.5war/650

* X. UT Stefanic 21pa, .359obp, 112wrc+, 3.1war/650
* X. OF Schneider 69pa, .320obp, 106wrc+, 1.9war/650
* X. IF Jimenez 21pa, .333obp, 109wrc+, 3.1war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 24pa, .276obp, 91wrc+, 2.7war/650

* X. OF Loperfido 21pa, .293obp, 91wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 47pa, .294obp, 88wrc+, 1.4war/650
* X. UT Martinez 69pa, .278obp, 88wrc+, 0.9war/650
* X. OF Straw 63pa, .302obp, 78wrc+, 1.0war/650

So Springer and Santander have basically been the same calibre player over the past calendar year, and are projected to be basically the same calibre player the rest of the season.

That's a good thing for Springer in his 2nd last year of his deal, not so great for Santander in the first year of his spanking new contract.

True, Santander has been bad. But so too have most of the other outfield free agent options this past winter: O'Neill, Pederson and Conforto are all comfortably below replacement so far.

We have a lot of outfielders tho.

Yandy Diaz was put on the restricted list and is out for the series, supposedly because of a passport issue. Count me as skeptical.

A 118 OPS+ projection for Santander sounds about right based on his career stats, and is basically what he was paid to do.

Doh I'm slow - just noticed they are at home, not at the spring training park the Rays now play out of (vs the minor league dome they have been using for years). For Jay home games the attendance has been 20,104 (weekday afternoon game early April vs Washington) to 40,734 (opening day). 3 games over 40k despite the park barely having 40k seats. 2 more in the 30's. Rays actually have sold out all but 1 game - a sellout being 10,046 seats. One game had 8,794. Not as bad as I expected. The A's also haven't been total disaster - 8,832 to 12,224 in a minor league park as well. The Marlins... ugh. 6,575 to 31,590 (opening day, next best is 18,549). Whoever thought putting full season ML baseball in Florida was a good idea was a fool.

"I dream of the day the Jays get their own Chandler ..." "...super fun. Old school leadoff hitter with insane speed"
Two comments from above . ... Another quote from a GM who will go nameless ... "We have to get faster" (2016 through 2025)
So; in 2022 with the 70th pick the Tampa Bay Rays selected from Georgia Tech the guy with Scouting Grades of 80 for speed and 60 for hitting. Some of his Scouting Bio quotes are ... "Simpson comes with an extreme offensive profile, with multiple evaluators joking that he has 90 speed" (although "10 for Power:) ... "he has displayed perhaps the best speed in the Draft and outstanding contact skills while leading NCAA Division I in batting at .433."... " He has tremendous feel for the barrel and rarely swings and misses" ..."He can get from the left side of the plate to first base in less than 3.8 seconds after taking a full swing and his quickness allows him to beat out routine grounders and run wild on the bases "
Meanwell, back at the ranch the Blue Jays selected with the 23rd pick LHP Brandon Barriera (21.1 innings pitched) and with the 60th pick SS Josh Kasevich with the 50 Run Grade ... Not really addressing the Running Speed Deficit ... but maybe this year !

Does anyone know who is our emergency first baseman? Vlad has played every inning since Wagner went down. Santander? Clement?

The backup 1B is likely Clement simply because A) he has some experience and B) he's lower on the hierarchy totem pole to ask to play out of position.

Ernie has 15 innings of MLB 1B experience which came back with the Guardians in 2022. He has another 65 innings of AAA experience with Buffalo in 2023.

Tyler Heineman played two innings at 1B at AAA for Boston last year. He has 35 total minor league innings, but most are from 2019 & before.

Santander probably has the most MLB 1B experience from his time with the Orioles. But I doubt the Jays would ask him to play there between the shoulder injury and being in the 1st year of a new deal.

Santander played 72 innings at 1B in 2023 in the majors and a solitary inning there last year. He had another 79 innings in the minors, but a long time ago as a 21 y/o in 2016 in A ball.

Michael Stefanic has 61 innings at 1B in the minors, last being 18 innings in 2021 with Salt Lake City.

TL; DR - Anthony Santander has the most experience and is probably the best current backup at 1B, but I doubt they ask him simply for hierarchy reasons.

The job likely falls to Ernie Clement, with Stefanic taking over at 2B.

TJ for Bloss, super disappointing for him and the jays

I actually think the TJ news is OK. Bloss wasn’t pitching well and the TJ issue probably accounts for that. Maybe he’ll actually be good once he returns.

It’s mid-May and Santander has a 75 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR / -0.4 bWAR. Not what you want from your entrenched #3 hitter just starting a five-year contract. Let’s hope he turns it around soon.

good game there, Daulton.

This team is really good at losing in spectacularly terrible ways

Hoffman lasted 1/6th a BJ Ryan.

Hoffman was going to regress eventually and he's probably been overworked lately but between this and the Angels loss, the Jays simply don't have the kind of margin for error to be losing games like this.

Little known fact but the original saying was: “beware of false Gods and National League pitchers”. It was shortened to the better known saying for religious purposes.

now's the time Santander.

Didn’t realize you could pull your closer if he was struggling.

"Didn’t realize you could pull your closer if he was struggling."

That was my first thought when Cash took Fairbanks out. No chance Schneider ever pulls a closer like that when he still has the lead. He'd wait for the lead to disappear first.

I didn't watch the ending but how did Hoffman look? There was speculation the Angels found him tipping his pitches. Did his stuff look good? If so perhaps the league has something on him. If not then perhaps he's overworked.

Totally. Yimi is very good at extricating himself from those situations (when he’s fresh). He would have been a good choice when the game was 7-7 with one out and runners on. But Schneider would never make that move. It’s like he feels there is some unwritten code in baseball that the closer must be left in until the team falls behind — the team must go down with the ship.

He really is a very unintuitive manager.

Hoffman’s velocity was ok but all of his pitches look like they’ve lost some life in his past few outings. His FB looks straighter and his secondaries look flatter.

Hoffman pitched effectively to the first batter he faced (Walls), striking him out on a good splitter. Walking the next batter (the #8 hitter Jankowski, who has around a .600 OPS) was the start of the unravelling. If he had been able to finish him off, the inning may well have looked very different.

But even so, the manager should have pulled his closer before he allowed TB to take the lead. There was ample evidence by that point that Hoffman didn’t have it tonight.

Santander annoyed me so much i wanted to update my best plausible lineup (this year's stats only);

plausible best possible lineup using this year's stats only:


* 1. LF Lukes 76pa, .373obp, 126wrc+, 1.7war/650
* 2. DH Springer 148pa, .404obp, 160wrc+, 4.8war/650
* ​3. 1B Guerrero 182pa, .379obp, 127wrc+, 2.9war/650
* 4. SS Bichette 190pa, .337obp, 114wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 5. CF Varsho 41pa, .268obp, 143wrc+, 7.9war/650
* 6. RF Straw 75pa, .319obp, 103wrc+, 5.2war/650
* 7. C Kirk 125pa, .312obp, 93wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 8. 3B Barger 63pa, .286obp, 90wrc+, 4.1war/650
* ​9. 2B Clement 118pa, .302obp, 89wrc+, 3.9war/650

* B. UT Santander 165pa, .273obp, 73wrc+, -1.6war/650
* B. OF Roden 84pa, .262obp, 53wrc+, 0.8war/650
* B. IF Gimenez 143pa, .273obp, 68wrc+, 1.4war/650
* B. C Heineman 45pa, .400obp, 172wrc+, 13.0war/650

Of 77 qualified AL hitters in 2025, Santander ranks 74th in fWAR. He was our front office’s big off-season acquisition.

At least Roki Sasaki has been similarly bad (and he’s now on the IL).

Jankowski was about 1 CM from being a strikeout - the 6th pitch of the AB (2-2 count) was crazy close but was outside the zone, barely. Get that call, or throw it just a tiny bit better and who knows? It really is a game of inches isn't it. Jansen got a hit on the first pitch, as did Lowe. Caminero came up with no time to get someone else ready, up 0-2 no other pitch was close to the strike zone - the grand slam came off a pitch well off the zone and nearly hit him in the fists. I have no idea how he got enough of the bat on it to knock it out of the park.

Really, I have no idea how anyone thinks Hoffman could've been pulled in time there. Just too quick with 2 guys having 1 pitch AB's after the walk. No way you have someone else ready as the inning starts unless it is the 1983/84 Jays who never saw a lead they couldn't blow it felt. Jordan Romano we might start wanting back, if he didn't have a 8.79 ERA (3 saves, 2 blown). Ugh.

I love how it's John Schneider's fault whenever one of Ross Atkins' key offseason acquisitions melts down in a save situation.

So the Jays score 9 runs against one of the few teams who have scored less runs than them this year and still find a way to lose. Terrible from Berrios and Hoffman.

This year's team really knows how to kill any good vibes from emerging.

Gameday shows the Hoffman slider that backed up and that Caminero hit out of the park as being on (or just off) the inside edge of the strike zone. Hoffman had already thrown three sliders in the PA (out of four pitches) so Caminero was likely guessing slider and then feasted on the pitch when it spun into a hittable area.

Pooks, Hoffman is on pace for 75 appearances this season — roughly half of the team’s games. If you think that’s a sustainable level of usage for a pitcher who failed two physicals in the off-season — or any hard-throwing reliever who has had TJ surgery — then sure, Schneider is doing a great job of managing his closer. Hoffman’s recent downturn in stuff and command is probably just a coincidence.

Specifically addressing the "Hoffman's stuff wasn't as good"...that really isn't true. His fastball averaged 97, same movement as usual. All his pitches graded out really nicely. Perhaps he is tipping his breaking balls, perhaps he's sequencing poorly, perhaps it's command, perhaps it's bad luck. Perhaps it's all of those things. But that isn't a man who looks tired or having bad stuff.

Hopefully they can figure it out. I'm sure they can; his stuff is electric, he was dominant prior to the past week or so. It's just rough timing for the back of the bullpen to be on a downswing.

Wouldn’t Hoffman’s loss of control or command (which was evident in his walk to the #8 hitter and his slider to Caminero) be an indication of fatigue? I thought his stuff looked good on some pitches, but it was inconsistent. The grand slam came on a big looping slider up and in. That pitch may have had a lot of “movement,” but it’s safe to say it wasn’t at all the pitch Hoffman wanted to throw. It may be that four of the five pitches he threw in that PA were sliders because he wasn’t confident in his usually-dominant FB to get the job done.

When you have a manager who is bad at managing pitchers, who also knows he's on the hot seat, things like this happen. Hoffman was absolutely overworked over the first 6 weeks and now the Jays are paying for it... as might the pitcher with the questionable shoulder.

It's no coincidence that we've seen both Hoffman and Garcia crumble...

It really does make me wonder what Hoffman (and to a lesser degree Garcia) would have to do to have some people here blame their unfortunate meltdowns on the players' performances themselves.

Even if one were to blame Schneider for his reliever management and alleged abuse/overuse six weeks in, this is still predicated on the notion that he has full autonomy on which relievers are available to him on a given day.

I'm sure he gets a list daily from the front office's High Performance Analytics department on who in the pen is allowed to pitch that game (and likely very heavy suggestions on the order and situation they should be deployed).

I'm sure Schneider is given a list of relievers who are available to pitch prior to each game, and it's up to him to use them as he sees fit. Hoffman was available, and the Jays had a 1 run lead in the 9th, so that's the extent of Schneider's thought process. The problem is that he's not a big league manager, and may not see the inside of a big league clubhouse again once his Jays run is over, so you're giving that responsibility to someone who won't be able to do it correctly. Kevin Cash is someone who could manage a team like the Jays with a paper thin margin for error and extract as many wins as possible. Schneider is not that manager.

"But even so, the manager should have pulled his closer before he allowed TB to take the lead. There was ample evidence by that point that Hoffman didn’t have it tonight."

Sounds like our manager.

"I love how it's John Schneider's fault whenever one of Ross Atkins' key offseason acquisitions melts down in a save situation."

I've changed my perspective from this negative view point ("everything is John Schneider's fault," to asking myself... "Could a better manager have acted differently?" I am finding that the answer is "no it's not John Schneider's fault, but if we had a better manager the outcome had a better chance to be changed or avoided." In this way it's possible for these outcomes not to be John Schneider's fault but at the same time entirely on John Schneider as the weakest link.

"Pooks, Hoffman is on pace for 75 appearances this season — roughly half of the team’s games. If you think that’s a sustainable level of usage for a pitcher who failed two physicals in the off-season — or any hard-throwing reliever who has had TJ surgery — then sure, Schneider is doing a great job of managing his closer. Hoffman’s recent downturn in stuff and command is probably just a coincidence."

Damn, that's how you illustrate a point...

"Kevin Cash is someone who could manage a team like the Jays with a paper thin margin for error and extract as many wins as possible. Schneider is not that manager."

This this this. I want a manager that can manager in the mess and pressure creatively and instinctively not someone that the players like who follows a pre-cut guide of how to make decisions. John Schneider is the equivalent of a bad robo ump that can't make adjustments to the game of inches.

"But even so, the manager should have pulled his closer before he allowed TB to take the lead." Impossible. There's not a single manager in baseball who would have or even could have pulled their closer in this situation. There was nobody warming up and not enough time to get someone ready. You are suggesting the following: - 1st batter struck out - 2nd batter walked - 3rd batter, 1st pitch single - 4th batter, 2nd pitch single - The manager should pull his closer. No.

Garcia should have been relatively hot.

If you were at the game, you noticed that two pitches before the grand slam, a ball was thrown on to the field. Nobody noticed it for the first pitch, but right before the grand slam Varsho noticed it and pointed it out to Straw. Why the game was not paused, which might have helped Hoffman regroup a bit at that exact moment, is beyond me.

When exactly was Garcia getting hot?

Additionally, if you’re expecting the pen to have someone ready as backup, then you can’t complain people are being overused. Getting people hot counts as wear and tear too. In the last thread people were complain Schneider is too short term focussed and if using the main guys too frequently. Then in the next thread the complaint is he should be using them more.

At the end of the day, Hoffman struggled to locate his fastball so tried using his other pitches and got burned. It happens. It sucks too


Shouldn’t we be criticizing Vladdy for dropping that ball and allowing a run to score? Or Hoffman for tripling up a few times on sliders?

I was at the game and saw Yimi up after the Rays tied it; I assumed it was for extras. I didn't notice if he was throwing with intent or not, though.

And, upon reading back, I see that the toxicity is still here. Ciao!

I'll concede that Garcia probably had enough time, if you account for a Heineman mount visit followed by a slow Schneider walk to the mound to replace Hoffman... But I don't think there's any manager in baseball that pulls a veteran closer in a one-out tie game after only having thrown 15 pitches and faced 4 batters. Or even after 16 pitches and 5 batters.

Garcia and someone else (Fisher?) were warming up in the 8th when the Jays were down 6-4. Shulman said that Fisher likely comes in if the score holds up and Garcia if the Jays did something. Then Varsho hit the home run and within seconds Hoffman was up. I don’t know why they’d have Garcia up with the intent of bringing him in if the score was 6-6 but then immediately sitting him back down up 7-6. Seemed like a perfect chance to rest Hoffman, who has been used a lot lately, with a reliever that was already hot. Of course if Yimi blows the save in that scenario then the second guessing comes in, but “Hoffman could use a day” was a pretty logical explanation considering he was coming off 4 appearances in 5 days. Now Hoffman has been used, and Garcia spent time getting hot in the pen, so you’re just adding to the heavy workload that they’ve already had.

As mentioned, Schneider has zero ability to improvise based on the situation, either because he can’t, he’s not good enough, or more likely some combination of both.

I started this debate about Hoffman and the 9th with my comment in the moment. I'll just say that my comment was intended more as a compliment to Cash than a criticism of Schneider for what happened in the 9th. Hoffman's collapse did happen quickly and I don't know if it could have been prevented. Cash pulled his closer before the milk got spilled. I can't remember the last time that the Jays pulled their Proven Closer (TM) before the game was lost in that kind of situation. That has certainly been Schneider's MO for his entire time but it also predates Schneider. The Jays and playing the Proven Closer card, ride or die, is a long standing tradition. And, for the record, I don't think everything is Schneider's fault. Not even close. I think Schneider is just kind of your garden variety, average manager (you can do better you can do worse).

Yeah to avoid toxic meltdowns I am also not saying this season is all on the manager. I am not saying he is responsible for everything. I am saying the same thing as others - John Schneider is a fill-in manager, average at best. He fills a roll and carries out duties, that's about it. If you shore up the bullpen and add another top of the order bat to this team then you could put Siri in charge of managing this team and it would do the same job as our current manager. "Manager" implies someone that manages something. Schneider strikes me more as a brand ambassador. Some people think that's all a manager is supposed to do. Some people, that's all they want a manager to do.

I wish Toronto aimed higher with their managers. I wish they had difference makers (if you believe such a thing exists). I have no doubt in my mind that Kevin Cash, Terry Francona and other managers would make a difference of at least a few wins more each year not to mention improvement in the play of some players. I wouldn't put any of those manager's in a 1 game sample size and say "they would fix the issue John Schneider was faced with tonight," but I would certainly assume that over a 162 game span they would better direct all decisions to avoid being in situations that John Schneider consistently finds himself in. Example, having a burned bullpen - Maybe they run the starter longer on occasion. Maybe they use an opener more often. Cash basically ran an opener for 2-3 innings every other game to bridge the gap between his starters and bullpen in past years and he rode his top starters as long as he could.

Cito Gaston, I only watched some of his tenure with the Blue Jays but he certainly seemed to bring out the best in some of his players who went out of their way to praise the way he increased their productivity especially on the hitting side. The only positive I've heard about our manager now is that he is a great communicator and the players like him. Pretty low bar if you ask me.

It also needs to be repeated that nobody knows how much control John Schneider actually has with this FO. As the game has changed with more analytics the role of manager has seemed to change to focus on two main roles: 1) clubhouse management and 2) bullpen usage. It's the second area where Schneider sucks. That balance between winning every game and burning the usage of your pitchers...he's way on the one end and I see it blowing up in his face if it hasn't already.

On a more positive note, those two home runs for Varsho last night were also the two hardest-hit balls of his career. Quite the thing to have them in the same game.

The crack off Varsho's bat was glorious in the Dome.

Moreno hasn't seemed to blossom into that Buster Posey star quite yet. Gurriel Jr is having a good season though with a near 30HR pace. Of course WAR will tell you he is just about worthless/replacement level which I couldn't disagree with more.

I'm no schneider fan, and admittedly i haven't been watching every inning this year, but i've generally been happier with his managing this year than in previous years - he's much more about letting his players dictate the games rather than trying to overmanage.

And largely it seems to have worked imo - i'm not going to lay any blame on the manager for Santander and Gimenez deciding to suck or the SP not being able to do their job or his best relievers blowing save situations in epic fashion.

One does have the sense that the Rays get the upper hand on the Jays more often than you would expect. Has anyone ever looked at which teams we've performed worse-than-expected against? Tampa has been a pretty good team for much of the past fifteen years or so, so you'd probably expect to lose most games against them, but is it more than we'd expect? Necessarily there are teams we overperform against as well.

Gabrielsyme - that is an unfair ask since Tropicana Field gives a huge advantage to the Rays. That place is a house of horrors for the Jays.

I'll add to the request... anybody want to tabulate how many blown leads the Rays/Jays have allowed in the past 3 years from the 7th inning on? That would be an interesting analysis.

Schneider is 16-22 vs TB.

In former Jays farmhand news, I saw that Kendall Graveman made it back to the show with the Diamondbacks after missing all of last year with shoulder surgery. He's had a nice career, closing in on 10 WAR according to baseball-reference, after starting as a cheap senior sign to clear draft money to not sign Phil Bickford - money that eventually went to sign Rowdy Tellez.

And Matt Svanson made the majors for the Cardinals about a month ago - we sent him over for Paul DeJong, so the Jays had already lost that trade. He got into a few games in relief, was okay, got sent back down, and just got recalled today. I expect he'll be up and down for the Cardinals quite a bit if he isn't totally overmatched.

it's really too bad that Hoffman and Yimi decided to blow up so spectacularly so suddenly, because the bullpen was actually working quite well otherwise. They were looking like a pretty dynamite back-end combo, supported by strong relievers in all the roles. Even Green and Yariel had bounced back from bad starts.

Hoffman & Garcia's underlying numbers are still very good btw.


* CL Hoffman 19gms, 1.0ip/gm, 155era-, 78fip-, -0.3war/65
* RSU Garcia 17gms, 0.9ip/gm, 101era-, 71fip-, 0.4war/65
* LSU Little 20gms, 0.9ip/gm, 51era-, 57fip-, 1.5war/65
* LMR Fluharty 16gms, 1.0ip/gm, 55era-, 74fip-, 1.4war/65
* RMR Sandlin 10gms, 0.8ip/gm, 58era-, 69fip-, 0.0war/65
* RMR Green 19gms, 1.0ip/gm, 86era-, 153fip-, -0.3war/65
* RLR Rodriguez:16gms, 1.2ip/gm, 109era-, 129fip-, -0.4war/65


Even the depth guys have been passable enough for depth guys (Lauer, Schultz, Fisher, Walker, Tate, Barnes, Lawrence, Lovelady):

* Depth: 24gms, 1.7ip/gm, 156era-, 91fip-, 106xfip-, -0.7war/65

Underlying numbers tell everything you need to know except the results that go in the books. They are good indicators.

Speaking of bullpens, Swanson and Burr have moved up to Buffalo to continue their rehab.

We could be looking at a bullpen of Hoffman, Garcia, Green, Little, Fluharty, Yariel, Swanson, and Burr (presuming Fisher is optioned and Urena is DFA'd in this scenario).

Santander has decided to suck (and will presumably turn it around at some point); Gimenez has decided to be exactly who he has been the past two years (with a small amount of BABIP bad luck).

either way, can't blame Schneider.

If the Jays fall 3 games short of a playoff spot I will blame the manager for letting potential wins slip away that I think other managers wouldn't have over the course of a season. I won't blame Vlad or Bo or Santander for failing to excel at hitting 97 MPH moving objects.

After him I would blame the front office. Even though they are in the top echelon for spending they could have added another piece.

The manager is the weakest link. If I could have only one of a) new players/core, 2) new FO with less payroll (all I've known before Shapiro took over) or 3) a new manager - I would pick the third option.

Probably because this team is performing about as I expected before the year started I'm pretty ambivalent about Schneider and the job he's doing. I can only really point to two things against him: a) the pointy end of the bullpen was overused in the first 30 or so games; I think part of that is roster construction (being one high leverage reliever short) and part is on Schneider in that he was using some of those arms in situations where a medium leverage arm would have been fine; and b) the Garcia meltdown against the Indians was an abysmal piece of managing. Otherwise, no real complaints and I think he's actually done a pretty good job of getting the right parts in place in the bottom half/fringy part of the line-up on more nights than not.

I think the pitching is about what i expected (other than expecting to get more than zilch from scherzer, which may yet happen) but i'd say the hitting is worse, but that's mostly due to Santander and Gimenez being given fulltime duty while hitting like AAAA players, and i just can't put that on Schneider. Those were expensive purportedly impact adds by the FO.

There have been surprises (Springer, straw, heinemena, lukes) and dissappointments (vlad, wagner, roden, schneider) amongst the other bats but having two fulltime additions hit like bad bench bats has been a bigger blow that's more outside expectations imo.


I sure hope Santander isn't hust done trying after the big payday, because his narrow skillset can't survive a significant lack of focus, and i sure hope Gimenez isn't completely toast, because i don't know that this FO will have the willingness to sit them, even if the multitude of younger borderline bats may start deserving chances ahead of them.

Buffalo have given up eight runs tonight. Worcester have scored six of the eight runs off Eric Swanson and Ryan Burr.

Kirk is getting his mojo back. Huge swing there.

Bo
Vladdy
Springer
Kirk

Would that be a better top of the order for the time being?

Small sample size - Barger is raking at 3B (321/406/571, 32 PA) and non-existent when in RF (111/143/185, 28 PA). Interesting, but I'm sure just coincidence

The Blue Jays just moved ahead of Boston by a half-game and are now in second place in the division.

Going to be a tough challenge for the team against Detroit this weekend.

Being 3 1/2 out of 1st, 1 1/2 out of the WC, but 5 1/2 ahead of Baltimore (swept in a double header) is not bad.

Last 15 days: Jays 7th in HR in majors, 6th in runs scored, 4th in OPS, 5th in BABIP, 6th in AB/HR. Nice! But just 19th in ERA, 3rd in saves, but 4 blown vs 6 made. 6th in K's, 9th lowest walks, 20th for giving up HR. So clearly issues pitching wise.

Season to date OPS: C #8, 1B #10, 2B #21, 3B #26, SS #14, LF #29 (tied for last), CF #1 (!), RF #13. LF mostly Roden/Clase/Schneider which explains a lot, CF Varsho/Lukes/Straw.

Detroit will be a challenge but at least their ace won't be there as Skubal pitched today.

Kirk is fun to watch with his great throwing arm now catching runners (the ball that got away I think was as much or more on Bo than on Kirk), continued to be good at framing pitches (at least until robo-ump comes) and if he can start hitting again with the odd HR, that would be great news for the Jays.

Kirk's throwing has been extremely impressive this season. Statcast has him among the Top 5 in baseball in several catcher throwing metrics. He leads the AL with 9 runners caught stealing. Interestingly, it's not been because of his arm strength, which is slightly below average, but because of his quick exchange time and - from my eyes - a consistently accurate throw to 2B that impressively tails right into the sliding runner. I agree that his error last night was as much on Bo as it was on Kirk... it looked like Bo was expecting a throw right over the bag but probably should have anticipated some more movement.

Jays rank in fWAR by position...

• SP: #28 1.2; RP: #11 1.4
• C: #2 2.1; DH: #15 0.1
• 1B: #9 0.8; 2B: #14 0.6; 3B: #18 0.3; SS: #18 0.6
• LF: #25 -0.4; CF: #2 1.6; RF: #15 0.5
• All hitters: #11 6.1; All pitchers: #21 2.6; Fielding #2 12.8 Def runs.

Interesting to look at - from dead last by a mile in relief last year to #11 so far this year. Starters are sucking big time though.

For starters, by fWAR Bassitt leads at 1.1, Gausman 0.9, big drop to Berrios 0.2, all others negative, worst being Francis at -0.4. Strangely for the pen Little is #1 at 0.5, Green dead last at -0.4 (due to his giving up HR a lot - 6 in 18 2/3 IP).

Top 10's in C/1B not a shock, but I bet many are surprised to see CF at #2 in the majors despite Varsho being out for so long - amazing how Straw has a 125 wRC+ while in CF, Springer over 200, Lukes 153. Dang, is it nice to have depth somewhere eh?

Bottom 10 in LF sucks, but Clase has sucked there (-0.3 already), as has Santander and Lukes (76 wRC+ in LF - weird vs his CF stats). Straw, Springer, and Schneider were all 0 WAR in LF, Roden +0.1 despite his 58 wRC+. Basically everyone getting a shot in LF forgets how to hit it seems. I'd probably just give Lukes a lot of time there for now, mixing in Straw vs LH pitching. Clase hasn't shown anything deserving of a shot yet so I have no idea why he is up right now.

I'm surprised the Jays starters are almost dead last in the league by fWAR.

They've had continuing good luck with health (other than Scherzer). The holdovers Berrios, Gausman & Bassitt have been pretty comparable to other years.

They've had some decent coverage from their depth starters: Easton Lucas before he became a pumpkin, Jose Urena, Eric Lauer, etc.

Bowden Francis has been a disappointment but not unplayable.

I wonder if Toronto's ranking in fWAR has to do with the fact that it is based on FIP instead of RA-9, meaning the team is doing exceptionally poorly in HR/9, BB/9 or K/9 skewing the data.

BBRef has the Jays 24th in the league for their starting pitchers for Wins Above Average (different than WAR).

The Jays (SP & RP) are 25th for HR/9 but Top 10 for both BB/9 & K/9.

So it would seem if there is a statistical outlier, it would be HR/9 killing their FIP/fWAR with guys like Francis and to a lesser degree recent Chris Bassitt killing them.

The holdovers (Berrios, Bassitt and Gausman) are doing pretty much what they've done in recent years and that isn't very good (particularly relative to salary). They've had very good to elite defence behind them for the most part and that is making them look better than they've actually pitched. The HR rate is a thing too and that might normalize a bit going forward.

Bassitt has been very good.

Gausman has been good.

Berrios has been ok - tho his 4.33 ERA and 4.27 xFIP are solid it's his 4.97 FIP alone that looks bad.

Francis has been bad - but again his 5.40 ERA and 4.61 xFIP have been just pretty bad while his 6.34 FIP alone has been horrendous.

So for these two we should definitely not ignore that their FIP is that bad, but at the same time there's reason to think that the FIP is not the most important number and a bit of an outlier.

The 5th SPs (scherzer/Urena/Lucas) have been awful with a 6.49era and 7.10fip in 3.8ip per starts. This gets even worse if you count Yariel's opener performane as a 'start', but looks better if you count Schultz's 4.1ip followup to that opener as a 'start'. And of course when you toggle to an "As SP" split on the sites, they're forced to include that yariel opener as a start (1.0ip, 18.00era, 21.00fip) and not that Schultz followed (4.1ip, 0.00era, -0.59fip).


I'd be comfortable labelling our SP so far as:

* 1. Very Good
* 2. Good
* 3. OK
* 4. Bad
* 5. Very Bad

uo - I won't really argue any of that other than to say the run scoring environment in the early part of the year is down and that the MLB average ERA so far in 2025 is 4.04. Gausman's ERA- is 101 (i.e. exactly league average). Bassitt's been very good as you say but Gausman and Berrios have just been ok.

yeah good point.

maybe it's

* 1. Good
* 2. OK
* 3. Bad
* 4. Very Bad
* 5. Awful

ok so maybe Gausman's been bad too.

it's fun looking at gameday and seeing that Santander has the worst OPS in the starting lineup....by 75 points.

and then realizing there's 2 more guys with far higher OPS than him on the bench, too.

Santander's quest for the rest of the day is to see if he can keep his wrc+ (currently 69 after 2pa today) above Gimenez' 67 by the end of the game.

Of the 10 jays hitters hitting much better than both of them, the next worst is Clement's 89wrc+.

I don't know that it's anyone's best interest to keep Santander in the 3-hole any longer.

I think we can put the "Santander is a slow starter" narrative to bed. This start is nothing like anything he's done the last few years.

First 38 games of the season (prior to today's game):

2025: 72 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
2024: 114 wRC+, 0.5 WAR
2023: 119 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
2022: 113 wRC+, 0.3 WAR

Nothing on his Statcast page is encouraging either. I'm sure there will be a hot streak some time this summer and hopefully we can put April/May aside when that happens, but at the very least they need to consider moving him down in the order. He only does one thing well as a hitter, and when he's not doing that, then he's practically unplayable. Not sure what else they can do. Luckily the AAV on his contract due to the deferrals is manageable, but 5 years for a player like this was always a terrifying scenario. If he's not hitting home runs, then he's a negative WAR player.

Easy to tell the Jays aren't peoples favorite thing to watch lately - under 100 comments for a Tampa series. A few solo homers today was nice, but nowhere near enough. This team feels like it is on the edge of something - but is it greatness or a cliff?

Update: Santander failed his quest.



Plausible best possible lineup this year's stats only:

wRC+

* 1. SS Bichette 115
* 2. DH Springer 151
* 3. 1B Guerrero 138
* 4. CF Varsho 133
* 5. C Kirk 95
* 6. LF Lukes 135
* 7. RF Straw 102
* 8. 3B Barger 98
* 9. 2B Clement 82

* B. UT Santander 67
* B. OF Roden 52
* B. IF Gimenez 67
* B. C Heineman 171


Big 4 Money Adds (Santander, Gimenez, Scherzer, Hoffman) over first 1/4 of season: -0.4war

Buster Olney reposted
Brandon Wile@Brandon_N_Wile · 1h
The Blue Jays have already played a pretty tough schedule, and now they're about to play 28 of their next 31 games against teams above .500

DET - SD - @ TB - @ TEX - ATH - PHI - @ MIN - @ STL - @ PHI - ARI

In 23, Santander had a .642 OPS in April. 1.056 in May.
In 22, his worst month was .704.
In 21, he had an OPS of .551 in April and .561 in July.
He goes through streaks. He's had months of hitting below .200 and slugging below .350 and months of hitting over .300 and slugging over .500.
Overall, he usually ends up with a middling average and a good HR total, but he does hit for average when he heats up.

It's like rolling dice. Just because you roll 3 and 5 doesn't mean your odds of rolling a high number have increased.
The odds are still good that he'll have a good month eventually. Even Springer had one good month last year.

The other 2 things are being on a new team and being a DH.
He's never hit as a DH.

Santander OPS lifetime...

• Apr: 645, May: 803, June: 771, July: 861, Aug: 852, Sept: 663
• DH: 674, RF: 787, CF: 781, LF: 781, 1B: 1081 (9 games), PH: 600, DH/RF/LF have 100+ PA
• 1st: 0, 2nd: 742, 3rd: 722, 4th: 871, 5th: 817, 6th: 1024, 7th: 757, 8th: 613, 9th: 410, only 2nd-5th have 100+ PA.

So some food for thought there. Maybe moving him to 4th or 5th would help. Wonder if Boston is loopy enough to do a Santander (good attitude) for Devers (bad attitude) trade? Heh. Not a chance of course, but one wonders where the line in the sand is for them with Devers.

The DH penalty is definitely a real thing, and some players are worse at adjusting to the role. I think the Jays should let Santander play in the field for a week or two and see if that helps him get going. They can rotate a bunch of other guys through DH - maybe give Lukes the primary role for the time being.

The good news on Santander is that there isn't really anything in his profile that shows an underlying problem - his whiff rate, chase rate, exit velocity and launch angle are all within career norms. He's just not making good contact right now, which sounds to me like a garden-variety slump, rather than anything more concerning.

Letting Santander play the field for a bit is a no-brainer.