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That was a totally normal road trip...eh? Right?



Magpie is currently off in the flat (and apparently scorching hot?) lands of Manitoba, so for now you're all getting me! (please, please, don't cheer so loudly). The timing of my cameo certainly couldn't be better: five days ago fans of this team may have been pondering particular prospect packages that perchance could be purchased for players like Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt. A fun revenge sweep in Seattle later, your Blue Jays are right back at .500 and sniffing around those wildcard discussions again. 

Whether the second game of the Angels series turns out to be the nadir of this season, or that the nature of this team is simply to bob up and down the waterline (like some kind of Win-Loss buoy)... who can really say at this point. This team sure seems to be considerably more fun when they're winning the games, which might be one of the more obvious things ever written here on Da Box. 

Returning home for a midweek series, these Blue Jays will get their first look at this season's Tampa Bay Rays, who not shockingly are doing their typical Rays-sy stuff. Scratching out runs at a slightly below league average rate while preventing them at a slightly above one (particularly on the bullpen side). Shane McClanahan has yet to appear in a game since hurting himself in Spring Training (sounds like it'll be another couple months) yet the Rays have cobbled together an effective enough rotation without him. Most of their starters appear to be more pitch-to-contact types, which certainly can work when you've got a defensive savant like Taylor Walls manning shortstop behind you. 

The Rays hitters have been much less scary, as beyond first baseman Jonathan Aranda (who's been real good) and outfielder Jake (not Magnum) Mangum, there isn't a whole lot of  production. A few guys who can run into a homer or two though, so be wary of that. This will also be another return visit for old friend Danny Jansen, who must be hoping this familiar building can help get his struggling bat (a .535 OPS) going a little.       

---

While I'm here, I'd like to take a quick look elsewhere in the league. Specifically, the Colorado Rockies. Hoo boy. If you haven't noticed or prefer not to look at such gruesome sights, the Rocky Horror Baseball Show is currently 7-33 and have surrendered nearly twice as many runs as they've scored. They just fired longtime manager Bud Black over the weekend (couldn't make things worse I suppose) while Kris Bryant (yes, that Kris Bryant) just went on the 60 Day IL following significant back surgery. He'd been pretty awful since going to Denver anyhow, so his absence likely won't make them even worse.

Colorado owning the worst team ERA (5.77) isn't all that surprising, but that they're also second-last in scoring runs per game certainly is. Their crew of position players have been an abject disaster, combining for -3.0 WAR as a unit and featuring only three(!) hitters on the whole team with an OPS above .640. It's not like this is a super young team taking their first lumps either (the average age is a notch below the National League average) and aside from pitcher Chase Dollander (whom MLB hitters have greeted to the big leagues rudely) there isn't much of anything impactful coming up from the minors to help dig this team out from the crater anytime soon (dig up, stupid!).

It's the bleakest situation in the majors quite handily, with the history of the franchise not offering much solace either. A total of five playoff appearances in their 32 year history and only two series wins (both during the famed Rocktober run of 2007). How has this happened? Much has been written about ownership and the organization's flat-out ignorance/refusal to modernize their operation, shunning advances in scouting and player training technology thus preferring not to invest heavily (or much at all) in their own player development. The result is what you see: plenty of talented players not being optimized or unlocked to their full potential upon reaching the majors. Stagnating careers for a stagnant franchise. Credit to those fans in Denver who still seem to faithfully come out and watch despite how terrible the team frequently is. 

Keeping this pace, the Rockies would easily surpass the putrid record of the 2024 White Sox as the very worst team in modern MLB history. 7-33 equals a .175 winning percentage, which is much closer to 1899 Cleveland Spiders territory than it is to any other region of lesser awfulness. There's a realistic chance they could finish over 70 games behind the Dodgers... simply wacky to think about. By the way, that would be the second worst GB in MLB history behind... yeah those infamous Spiders.   

So hey, as Jeff Hoffman was getting walked off by the Angels this past Wednesday night during the (current) low-point of the 2025 Blue Jays season... it could still be much, much, much worse.           


Matchups!

13 Tue: Baz (3-2, 4.93) v. Berrios (1-1, 3.86)
14 Wed: Pepiot (2-4, 3.86) v. Bassitt (3-2, 3.35)
15 Thurs: Littell (2-5, 4.40) v. Gausman (3-3, 3.97) -- 3:07 start


Tampa Bay at Toronto - May 13-15 | 9 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Glevin - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#459890) #
Chandler Simpson is super fun. Old school leadoff hitter with insane speed.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#459892) #
It's nice having a long-man in the pen. Thanks to Lauer, the entire bullpen should be good to go twice this series. Green, Little, and Garcia could all use work tonight, so we'll probably see Berrios for at most 6 innings.

ESPN has the Jays facing RHPs in (at least) their next 10 games. There should be lots of playing time for Lukes and Barger.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#459893) #
Wonder if this will be a fun few games for Vlad - he really enjoyed regular season games in spring training facilities in '21, maybe he'll enjoy it again in '25.
Kelekin - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#459894) #
I dream of the day the Jays get their own Chandler Simpson. Baltimore and TB have tons of these guys in their org.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#459896) #
Does anyone know who is our emergency first baseman? Vlad has played every inning since Wagner went down. Santander? Clement?
uglyone - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#459897) #
I'm guessing Barger/Heineman/Clement have taken their share of reps at 1B over the years.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#459898) #

Plausible Best Possible Lineup, using this year's stats only:

* 1. LF Lukes 74pa, .313babip, 133wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 177pa, .336babip, 126wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 3. DH Springer 143pa, .385babip, 163wrc+, 5.0war/650
* 4. SS Bichette 185pa, .326babip, 105wrc+, 1.8war/650
* 5. 3B Barger 59pa, .279babip, 104wrc+, 5.5war/650
* 6. C Alejandro 125pa, .314babip, 93wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 7. CF Varsho 36pa, .200babip, 97wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 8. RF Straw 73pa, .340babip, 97wrc+, 5.3war/650
* 9. 2B Clement 114pa, .315babip, 76wrc+, 2.9war/650

* B. UT Santander 160pa, .223babip, 76wrc+, -1.2war/650
* B. OF Roden 84pa, .214babip, 53wrc+, 0.8war/650
* B. IF Gimenez 143pa, .229babip, 68wrc+, 1.4war/650
* B. C Heineman 41pa, .438babip, 163wrc+, 12.7war/650

* X. UT Schneider 21pa, .143babip, 54wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 16pa, .182babip, -15wrc+, -12.2war/650
* X. IF Wagner 68pa, .250babip, 52wrc+, -2.9war/650
* X. IF Stefanic 1pa, .000babip, -100wrc+, 0.0war/650



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

* 1. LF Lukes 165pa, .377obp, 132wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 702pa, .400obp, 166wrc+, 5.3war/650
* 3. DH Santander 669pa, .302obp, 120wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 4. RF Springer 600pa, .333obp, 118wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 5. C Alejandro 426pa, .322obp, 98wrc+, 4.9war/650
* 6. CF Varsho 415pa, .280babip, 92wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 7. SS Bichette 370pa, .314obp, 94wrc+, 1.8war/650
* 8. 3B Barger 266pa, .275obp, 88wrc+, 1.5war/650
* 9. 2B Clement 493pa, .285obp, 89wrc+, 2.9war/650

* B. UT Jimenez 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+, 1.5war/650
* B. OF Straw 77pa, .311obp, 94wrc+, 5.1war/650
* B. IF Gimenez 613pa, .290obp, 79wrc+, 2.5war/650
* B. C Heineman 55pa, .364obp, 130wrc+, 9.5war/650

* X. UT Schneider 372pa, .255obp, 57wrc+, -1.2war/650
* X. OF Loperfido 237pa, .254obp, 72wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Wagner 154pa, .314obp, 93wrc+, 1.3war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 96pa, .287obp, 110wrc+, 4.7war/650

* X. UT Roden 84pa, .262obp, 53wrc+, 0.8war/650
* X. OF Clase 54pa, .283obp, 76wrc+, -1.2war/650
* X. IF Stefanic 125pa, .298obp, 62wrc+, -2.1war/650
* X. C Sanchez 96pa, .211obp, 11wrc+, -1.4war/650




Using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:

* 1. SS Bichette 485pa, .327obp, 116wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 511pa, .370obp, 143wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 3. DH Santander 496pa, .313obp, 118wrc+, 2.2war/650
* 4. RF Springer 453pa, .330obp, 113wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 5. LF Lukes 158pa, .339obp, 112wrc+, 2.9war/650
* 6. C Alejandro 333pa, .342obp, 113wrc+, 5.9war/650
* 7. 3B Barger 264pa, .313obp, 106wrc+, 3.0war/650
* 8. CF Varsho 464pa, .297obp, 104wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 9. 2B Gimenez 432pa, .319obp, 103wrc+, 4.1war/650

* B. UT Wagner 142pa, .344obp, 111wrc+, 2.3war/650
* B. OF Roden 237pa, .334obp, 108wrc+, 2.2war/650
* B. IF Clement 258pa, .301obp, 96wrc+, 2.8war/650
* B. C Heineman 130pa, .312obp, 87wrc+, 3.5war/650

* X. UT Stefanic 21pa, .359obp, 112wrc+, 3.1war/650
* X. OF Schneider 69pa, .320obp, 106wrc+, 1.9war/650
* X. IF Jimenez 21pa, .333obp, 109wrc+, 3.1war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 24pa, .276obp, 91wrc+, 2.7war/650

* X. OF Loperfido 21pa, .293obp, 91wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 47pa, .294obp, 88wrc+, 1.4war/650
* X. UT Martinez 69pa, .278obp, 88wrc+, 0.9war/650
* X. OF Straw 63pa, .302obp, 78wrc+, 1.0war/650

uglyone - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#459899) #
So Springer and Santander have basically been the same calibre player over the past calendar year, and are projected to be basically the same calibre player the rest of the season.

That's a good thing for Springer in his 2nd last year of his deal, not so great for Santander in the first year of his spanking new contract.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, May 13 2025 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#459901) #
True, Santander has been bad. But so too have most of the other outfield free agent options this past winter: O'Neill, Pederson and Conforto are all comfortably below replacement so far.
Tampa Bay at Toronto - May 13-15 | 9 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.