I like the move. Okamoto seems to be a solid and versatile player in or close to his prime (29). He has some power and doesn’t strike out a lot, so he fits with the team’s current offensive MO. He’ll provide quality as a starter and/or depth at multiple positions (3B, 1B, DH, possibly corner OF). I assume the Blue Jays have scouted him a lot and have good intel on him.

Now the question is whether the team will add one more quality position player via free agency or trade. I would like to see one more very good player added.

The signing (if it works out for both sides) may also help the Blue Jays attract future Japanese stars — a not-insignificant ancillary benefit of the move.

I don't hate the move but i don't love it. He's an awkward fit on the team and this screams more of this FO's previous tendencies to go with war/$ value signings than it does of maximizing the roster.

Not sure he can play 3B well enough, but even if he can, it still leaves us in a situation where we really need both Gimenez and Clement to be legtimately productive and healthy all year to handle the middle IF slots. There's no real other options there.

It's cool, but to me this screams "Tucker and Bellinger are going elsewhere, so we grabbed the best left bat we could get".

he's a RHH!

Yoshida and Suzuki both had much better OPSs in NPB before coming over. Not sure if those need adjusting for division or other factors.

Seems like a decent signing.

Doh. My bad. I went a bit too fast and probably got various international players confused. Another RHH infielder? And an unknown one at that? Then maybe this is the "Bo isn't coming back" signal.

Potential Best Lineup using Steamer projections with Fangraphs' playing time estimates:

1. DH Springer (36, RH): 595pa, .342obp, 123wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero (27, RH): 679pa, .385obp, 153wrc+
3. C Alejandro (27, RH): 488pa, .354obp, 122wrc+
4. RF Barger (26, LH): 483pa, .319obp, 111wrc+
5. 3B Okamoto (30, RH): 560pa, .324obp, 110wrc+
6. LF Santander (31, SH): 567pa, .309obp, 106wrc+
7. CF Varsho (29, LH): 595pa, .294obp, 100wrc+
8. 2B Clement (30, RH): 644pa, .313obp, 100wrc+
9. SS Gimenez (27, LH): 595pa, .311obp, 95wrc+

B. PH Lukes (31, LH): 322pa, .338obp, 109wrc+
B. OF Straw (32, RH): 133pa, .296obp, 72wrc+
B. IF Schneider (27, RH): 294pa, .326obp, 105wrc+
B. C Heineman (35, SH): 154pa, .306obp, 82wrc+

X. PH Loperfido (27, LH): 28pa, .293obp, 85wrc+
X. OF Clase (23, SH): 14pa, .294obp, 82wrc+
X. IF Jimenez (25, RH): 77pa, .320obp, 95wrc+
X. C Valenzuela (25, RH): 13pa, .273obp, 66wrc+

Yep uglyone, dumb of me not to include that in the article above. So he can platoon as the lesser side at 3B with Barger, or be platooned in LF with Lukes or Loperfido. Or platooned with Santander even (some position shifting involved unless both are sharing LF).

Basically he could be a super-utility guy, used at 3B to spell Barger/Santander/Lukes/Schneider (corner OF day off, Barger goes to RF, or Barger gets day off at 3B). He could spell Vlad off (no need for another France), or give Springer a day off entirely from DH. Lots of options as he can play 3B/1B/LF. Mixed with Schneider at 2B (shifting Clement to SS vs LHP) and we have a very rubics cube team where guys will shift all over the place as needed.

vs RHP: Springer (DH)-Barger (RF)-Vlad (1B)-Santander (LF)-Kirk (C)-Varsho (CF)-Clement (2B)-Gimenez (SS)-Okamoto (3B)
vs LHP: Springer (DH)-Schneider (2B)-Vlad (1B)-Santander (LF)-Kirk (C)-Okamoto (3B)-Varsho (CF)-Clement (SS)-Barger (RF) (could use Straw for Barger or Varsho)

Now, would that work? Maybe. I could see Lukes in RF and Barger at 3B vs RHP. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jays see if Barger or Okamoto can handle 2B in spring too, thus letting Clement have more time at SS if Gimenez continues his poor hitting (70 wRC+ last year). This is a very loaded team potentially, but boy is a trade needed to clear out some deadwood.

All evidence leans to the FO signing another big player. Nothing to suggest the FO signed this player because they are punting on better options.

Yoshida and Suzuki both had much better OPSs in NPB before coming over. Not sure if those need adjusting for division or other factors."

WRC+, Three years prior to coming over.

Suzuki: 195, 158, 178
Yoshida: 202, 195, 176
Okamoto: 210, 161, 180

Certainly seems pretty similar to those guys. Of course, numbers don't directly translate. Suzuki has been an excellent hitter and Yoshida has been a league average one so you don't know but it does feel like Okamoto has a reasonable chance to be like a 115-120 WRC+ kind of guy with some defensive flexibility. That's a valuable player. Still hope Jays bring in one more big bat and I think they might need to trade away some guys too.

I think a factor here is the fact he only had 24 hours left before going back to Japan, so it was now or never. No waiting to see if Bo signs, no waiting to see what Tucker finally agrees to. Just sign or say goodbye.

Now, could the Jays blow the bank and sign both Bo and Tucker still? Sure. Very, very unlikely but it could happen. Could they be at their limit and say 'no more'? Again, yes.

Now, what would the lineup look like with both Bo & Tucker? Bo at 2B, Tucker in RF obviously.
1B Vlad, SS Gimenez/Clement platoon, C Kirk, CF Varsho, DH Springer, LF Santander all seem locks.
3B A Okamoto/Barger platoon? I think it'd have to be.

Bench then would be Heineman, 2 guys who are parts of platoons at 3B/SS, plus Straw (need a backup for Varsho). That leaves Lukes, Schneider, and many others in AAA hoping for an injury or a trade. That'd be a heck of a loaded team with a $350 mil+ payroll. Like I said, very unlikely.

Let's see if Atkins and/or Shapiro make any comments in the coming days aimed at tamping down any Tucker/Bo/Bellinger fan expectations.

Okamoto's $60m contract is "a straight four-year deal without any opt-outs. The contract breaks down as a $5MM signing bonus and a $7MM salary for Okamoto in 2026, and then $16MM in each of the deal’s final three years. Okamoto is represented by the Boras Corporation."

The experience of Japanese hitters coming to MLB is a very mixed bag. There’s a very wide range of potential outcomes here. I’m not against the move but it’s a weird roster fit that feels very much like plan B to me. Who knows though until the music stops.

Maybe if the FO didn't spend 500 million on Vlad and sign the biggest free agent deal with Cease by jumping the market ... maybe then i would call this signing "Plan B."

Jays are at their peak for free agent attractiveness... for them to drop out of Tucker and Bo would mean those players communicated they won't sign here or the Jays decided that they will spend 294 million but not 325 million. Just doesn't make sense.

The Blue Jays now have lots of ways they can improve over the next couple of months. As someone wrote on Bluebird Banter:

"If we can sign Tucker…do we trade Barger in a package for Skubal if it comes with an extension? Sorry, the possibilities are turning me all silly."

That particular move seems unlikely to happen, but there are lots of FA signing and/or trade moves, or combinations of FA and trade moves, that the FO could make.

IMO the FO is not finished making deals. Okamoto was a V good signing. I definitely expect some trades now.

Yeah exactly...I think they are spending to acquire talent and know very well what it will take to make trades they want to make (unload Berrios, find another core piece, one more elite relief arm, etc). I think it's more likely they will trade a bigger package to make room and sign Bo or Tucker than the alternative of "we're done now because we signed Okamoto and plan to rely on Barger, Clement and Gimenez all season." Just no chance that is the case with Bo wanting to come back and the streakiness of Barger. At this point Barger will blossom into a star or go ice cold again as pitchers adjust a 2nd time.

greenfrog - that actually opens up all kinds of possibilities - with this signing Barger could be traded as part of a package for something great. The Jays need to be focused on getting guys who can produce 5+ WAR seasons, not 2-3 ones. To win you need to concentrate your talent, which is damn hard. High end players demand high end contracts and will be picky on where to sign. Wonder what Arizona wants for Marte, or St Louis for Donovan? Both would be about $10 mil a year less than Bo and should produce as well as Bo would overall (defense plus offense) at 2B. What does Cleveland want for Kwan and would they be willing to trade Emmanuel Clase (signed for '26, team options 27/28 $6.4/$10/$10 vs $2 mil buyout) as well?

Class is done. Kwan is the type of acquisition you make while giving up Barger if it includes an extension. I can see that happening. Schneider and Barger out for a top 3 WAR player (not 3 WAR but one of your best three WASr players).

Mlb trade rumors top trade candidates starting the off season:

Brendan Donovan - available
Ryan Jeffers - available
Brandon Lowe - traded
Karen Duran -
Steven Kwan - available
Taylor Wars - traded

Also on the list were Tristan Casas and CJ Abrams

I mean Barger is no sure thing but it's hard not to feel his upside is higher than Okamoto's.

signing Okamoto to trade Barger would seem to be the opposite of trying to consolidate high-war talent.

Would be better to move Santander and Berrios (as much of their salaries as possible) to clear space for Tucker, Bo or Bellinger, no?

After the Okamoto signing, I see a LHB or switch-hitter (like Tucker, Bellinger, Donovan or Marte) as the FO's likely preferred target at this point, over a RHB like Bo.

(Reposting - meant to post in this thread) Fangraphs ranked Okamoto as their #21 FA this off-season. Here is part of their (ungated) writeup on him:

Okamoto isn’t the same kind of shooting star talent as Munetaka Murakami, but he’s been the better hitter of the two corner infielders over the last three years. He hits for power and average, rarely strikes out, and consistently posts double-digit walk rates to boot. If you enjoyed the Blue Jays this October, he’s their kind of hitter; he puts the ball in the air plenty and with authority, but his true standout skill is doing that without piling up strikeouts. As Eric noted in his scouting report, Okamoto has also improved against high velocity fastballs in the past few years, which is a key point of failure for NPB hitters.

Still, let’s not get too crazy here. We’re not necessarily talking about Alejandro Kirk as a third baseman; I expect that Okamoto will strike out far more in the majors than he did in Japan, and he’s up there looking to do damage, not slap one the other way. His game is doubles over dingers, but it’s a ton of both. It might also be more first base than third, which I baked into my estimation. I have him down as a solid hitter (though not an overwhelmingly good one) who’s without an obvious defensive home. I think that will land him a four-year deal with some fancy bells and whistles for both him and the club that signs him. I have legitimately no clue which bells and whistles – but luckily, that’s outside of the scope of this exercise.

That unfortunately didn't work as intended. Let's try again.

A 5 for 1 trade for Mason Miller would solve a lot of issues. What's the money situation like in SD?

Someone kick me the next time I forget Clase is out of baseball forever (gambling).

Cade Smith of Cleveland would be sweet - Canadian closer who has pitched fantastic for 2 seasons now, not a free agent until after 2029. Safe to say Cleveland would want a LOT for him. Outside of José Ramírez the Cleveland payroll is peanuts. Tanner Bibee (SP) starts to get expensive in '28 but I doubt they care right now. Austin Hedges is their only free agent post '26 right now, but is a backup catcher who had a 51 wRC+ last year so who cares. They do have Trevor Stephan who hasn't pitched since 2023 in their system being paid $3.5 mil this year with a $1.25 mil buyout so that is some weight the Jays could absorb in a trade (no longer on their 40 man but would still count against the luxury tax I suspect). Cleveland is run well, they cleared out most of their bad contracts to the Jays last winter (and Straw surprisingly was a very useful player in the end). Kwan is the big fish there that is on the market (arbitration, expected to be around $8.8 mil for '26, free agent post '27) - Jays might chase him if they can't sign Tucker or can trade Santander. Might.

So many options. It'll be interesting to see what happens next now that this shoe has dropped.

One reason that the Okamoto signing seems like a very good idea to me is that there is now insurance against a prolonged loss of Vladdy due to injury. If the Jays run a payroll around $300m, it would seem crazy to have that go to waste if Vladdy takes a ball to the hand and misses a month or more if one big swing takes his back out for a while. Need to minimize the probability of a season damaged by one pitch or swing.

From this perspective, I see a Bo signing being quite valuable as it then gives the Jays three players who can play middle infield and provide (way) above average production. Losing one of Clement, Bo or Gimenez for an extended period would not seriously damage playoff chances.

If payroll becomes an issue with signing Bo to a $25m-$30m per season then perhaps moving Santander (and his reasonable but not trivial) salary to a team hurting to sign a power bat (say, Pittsburgh) is a move that can work as Okamoto can pick-up some LF slack. Throw in some bucks to get a flyer on level pitching prospect.

Jacob, I think that is a very good point. Having Okamoto on the team would also allow the Blue Jays to give Vladdy some occasional non-injury-related rest. Vladdy has played 156-161 games in each of the last five years, plus playoff games. Lowering that number a bit might be good for his career longevity and performance (although he certainly didn’t play like a tired or depleted player in the 2025 postseason).

I'm not fully convinced that the Jays (John Schneider in particular) view Clement as anything other than an everyday player, but if they accept him as more of a 400-600 PA utility player, then I think there is a path for Bichette to come back and the Jays not having to trade anyone important.

DH Springer
2B Bichette
1B Vladdy
LF Santander
RF Barger
3B Okamoto
CA Kirk
CF Varsho
SS Gimenez

BN Clement, Straw, Schneider, Heineman

That path is a lot more muddied with Tucker in the fold, as it would force Barger, Santander, and Okamoto to fight for 2 positions (LF/RF and 3B), since none of them can play 2B. In that scenario they'd likely have to move one of Santander or Barger, as neither one is going to be used as a bench/utility piece.

Realistically, I think it's Bichette or trade at this point. If it's Tucker, then there would be way more moving pieces.

Tucker LF, Gimenez SS, Clement 2B would be a lot faster and better defensively than Santander LF, Gimenez SS, Bo 2B.

Tucker would make the Blue Jays a more dynamic two-way team. This might require a trade (Santander?) to pull off, though.

Bo is also an appealing FA target (plan B for some, plan A for others).

I think the Jays should be working on avoiding a line-up with Santander, Varsho, Barger and Gimenez regularly as that is too many players that face a reasonable probablility of sub-300 OBPs. I'd prefer to get Bo in there and see Santander less frequently. Barger is a risk as he's only performed for less than a season but if you buy his play, energy and enthusiasm, he certainly helps balance payroll concerns. Same for Clement. If that means flipping Santander and putting Okamoto in LF... okay with me.

I have confidence that Bo can carry a team for long stretches but have not paid enough attention to Santander's career to believe he can carry a team with that OBP of his. I can see a week of clustered HRs but is he a guy who can carry a team when not hitting dingers?

Fun times to be a fan.

Would the Jays want to pay more for Tucker and then dump Santander with cash for 50 cents on the dollar, versus signing Bichette for (a lot?) less and having to trade a bit piece like Lukes?

I think you can definitely rationalize the Tucker + trade Santander scenario, but that's a lot more money (both with signing Tucker and absorbing cash in a Santander trade) for a team that has a CBT payroll already starting with 3.

Regardless, it will be fascinating to see what they end up doing. Could end up with neither Bo or Tucker, and it could be someone else entirely.

By signing so many FAs this offseason, the Blue Jays have put themselves in a position where they could make *one* big trade significantly to improve the team. I’m just not sure who the trade target would be. Kwan, Donovan, Marte, Buxton…anyone else who would make sense on the position player side?

The ideal FA or trade target would be a LH or SH corner outfielder or second baseman who could hit at or near the top of the lineup against RHP.

Tucker
Marte
Kwan
Donovan
Bellinger

Are some possible fits.

Bo is also a potential fit. We already know the lineup works with him in it. But his slow speed and injury history work against him somewhat.

For fits I think we need to go with what is here vs what would be here. Using FanGraphs depth charts and The Bat X projection

• Tucker (4.5)/Kwan (0.9)/Bellinger (2.3) vs Addison Barger (2.4) - looks like Tucker or bust. If Santander (1.0) can be benched it could work. Depth Charts is T (4.4)/K (3.2)/B (3.0) vs B (2.4)/ S (1.3). Steamer T (3.7)/K (2.8)/B (2.7) vs B (2.0)/ S (1.0)
• Marte (4.9)/Donovan (2.7)/Bo (4.2) vs Clement (1.1)/Schneider (1.5) - all 3 clear improvements. Depth Charts has it M (4.8)/D (3.0)/B (4.0) vs C (2.4)/S (1.4); Steamer M (4.5)/D (2.8)/B (3.6) vs C (1.8)/S (1.3).

Seems the IF has more potential for upgrade than the OF. None of those 3 systems like Clement or Schneider much.

Average OF: Tucker (4.2)/Kwan (2.3)/Bellinger (2.4) vs Barger (2.3)/Santander (1.1) - spread vs Barger = T (1.9)/K (0)/B (0.1) vs Santander T (3.1)/K (1.2)/B (1.3)

Average IF: Marte (4.7)/Donovan (2.8)/Bo (3.9) vs Clement (1.8)/Schneider (1.4) - spread vs Clement M (2.9)/D (1.0)/B (2.1). I see Schneider as more a 'use in case of injury' guy.

So if you are replacing Santander then Tucker or any of the other OF potentials make sense. If you are replacing Barger they don't outside of Tucker (but damn expensive for just shy of 2 wins). Kwan only makes sense if you are getting something extra or see him as having a higher potential than the projection systems so far see for him (FYI: ZIPS has Kwan at 3.0, Bellinger 3.3, no projection for Tucker yet)
If you are getting any of the 3 2B it makes sense as you are likely replacing Clement (moves to the bench) and gaining 1-3 wins depending on cost in a trade for Marte or Donovan. ZIPS has Marte at 4.2, no projection for Donovan or the Jays.

So this gives a view as to the potential gains of signing assorted free agents/trade targets. Not perfect, but interesting. This all assumes guys like Lukes/Schneider/Straw for the OF are backups now and that Okamoto will be everyday at 3B. Not all locks, but reasonable assumptions at this point in time.

What if Gimenez is the bench player and Clement is the starting SS? What if Barger is the trade chip? Then it's easy to see a path for Tucker and Santander.

dalimon5 - agreed, if Barger is a trade chip then Tucker and Santander could be used. Of course, that is a high dollar option and the question becomes who do we get for Barger? Can Marte be gotten for Barger plus prospects? Using FanRanked I get a trade value of 33.2 for Barger vs 53.6 for Marte. Clearly more needed. Tiedemann has a value of 24.2 which pushes it up to 57.4 to 53.6 - I suspect Arizona would demand to 'win' in net value given the high value Marte has. But I question the sites values given they have Berrios at 22.6 value. Sigh.

Baseball Trade Values used to be fun but now they charge to do estimates ($25 US a year). But under 'featured trades' we might get an idea. Marte they have at excess value of 69.1. One trade offer they have listed (under favorite trades) is Marte for Fisher (5.4), Tiedemann (15.6), King (16.8), Arias (3.5), Parker (20.5). Other Jays are Barger (24.3), Lukes (14.3), Jimenez (10), Kasevich (8.4), Nimmala (28.6). Values shift often even in the offseason which makes me question their system a bit. Still, it gives an idea of value from a neutral source. So Barger + Nimmala + Tiedemann + Jimenez might get the job done. IE: It ain't cheap to get Marte - it would hurt a LOT in prospect value. FYI: Berrios is listed at -40.7 meaning the Jays would need to eat $40.7 mil of value to get rid of him. Santander no one has listed in a trade in years.

So far the Jays have signed (MLBTR rank) #3 Dylan Cease (7 years $210mil, projected 7/$189); #19 Kazuma Okamoto (4/$60 projected 4/$64) ; #39 Cody Ponce (3/$30 projected 2/$22); #42 Tyler Rogers (3/$37 projected 2/$18). Not bad. Plus minor league deals for Josh Winckowski & Jorge Alcala & Nic Enright (Winckowski and Enright to 2 year deals due to '26 being a recovery from surgery year for both).

The Yankees big signing was Trent Grisham accepting his QO. They also signed 3 others for a net of sub $8 mil (Yarbrough, Blackburn, and Rosario $2.5 or less each). Boston hasn't signed a single free agent. Rays did Mullins, Matz, and Fraley for $7.5 to $3 mil each. O's busy though with Alonso ($31 per for 5), Helsley ($14 per for 2), Eflin ($10 for 1), and Taveras ($2 for 1) plus Albert Suárez to a minor league deal.

No question the Jays have been the busiest with the chequebook in the AL East. FYI: the Yankees haven't made any trades according to FG. Boy their fans must be frustrated.

Starting lineup looks like this.

Springer
Varsho
Guerrero
Santander
Kirk
Barger
Okamoto
Clement
Gimenez

Barger is the youngest position player, an impactful bat and a solid defender, not somebody I'd trade.
In fact, I'd move him to second in the lineup if he keeps producing.
Santander should rebound.
Leo Jimenez might be DFAed sooner than later.

Santander and Gimenez are both from Venezuela and hopefully not there right now.

Possible vRHP starting lineup with Tucker:

Springer DH
Tucker LF
Vladdy 1B
Kirk C
Barger RF
Okamoto 3B
Varsho CF
Clement 2B
Gimenez SS

With Bo but not Tucker:

Springer DH
Santander LF
Vladdy 1B
Bo 2B
Kirk C
Barger RF
Okamoto 3B
Varsho CF
Clement/Gimenez SS

And with both Tucker and Bo:

Springer DH
Tucker LF
Vladdy 1B
Bo 2B
Kirk C
Barger RF
Okamoto 3B
Varsho CF
Clement/Gimenez SS

In the first and third scenarios, Santander is traded or on the bench (unless you start him in RF over Barger).

I support the Okamoto signing and I am okay with no Bo. I don't think Okamoto instead of Bo reduces the hitting much if anything, or the defense at all and his price is much less.

With Springer coming off the books next year I don't see Tucker signing here as an issue. One of Clement, Gimenez, Barger Santander (or all of them) lose some playing time for 1 year which is the same as last year...and that's assuming no injuries in 2026.

If you resign Bo then one of Clement, Okamoto, Gimenez is losing playing time or (or all of them).

In my opinion Bo Bichette, Anthony Santander and George Springer are all risks to miss time next year to injury. Okamoto, Barger and Clement are all risks to fall back. Having Tucker or Bo signed is the ideal move and I hope they're planning for it.

The projected payroll next year (with Berrios) is 200 million so they have the space while remaining under the cap.

The Blue Jays offseason has been terrific so far.

But they still need to make one more move to add a position player who can hit at an elite or near-elite level near the top of the order -- someone like Tucker, Bo, or Marte.

Michael's proposal (add Tucker and Bo) would be sensational, but might be a bridge too far for ownership.

I'd say the chances of adding two more big bats now are basically 0. One of Bo or Tucker is possible but not both. Bo I think fits a bit cleaner because it allows excellent rotation with all the parts. With Tucker, you'd likely need to trade for backup middle infielder which isn't a big deal but it's another move. Still think another bat is important because lineup has a lot of depth middle of lineup could be a lot better.

Related thoughts from a Beauxite:

*Jacob brings an amazing angle: Okamoto provides some protection for a Vlad injury.

* Tucker joining Jays make it harder for me to see Barger staying on the team.

* Bo joining is a clean addition with Gimenez/Clement being super utility/platoon players, Barger remaining in the OF. It gives more time for Okamoto to adjust to MLB pitching as well. This configuration allows the line up to transition easier in 2027 as well when Springer is gone. This configuration puts a lot more hope in Barger being a core piece LHH.

What the FO does next comes down to whether they feel Barger can be a core piece alongside Vlad (and Bo?) in the future or if he's better to be traded and make Tucker your core piece alongside Vlad.

Okamoto could struggle against MLB pitching.
I think the biggest differences are higher velocity and better breaking balls from RHP.
I see a healthy competition between some players.
Bichette was the Jays cleanup hitter last year.
Okamoto is probably not that.

The biggest hole right now is a top of the order left bat to pluck near the top.

The middle infield is fine.
They have guys at AAA who can be added to the 40 roster if Gimenez or Clement gets injured.
We're talking replacement for the bottom or the order. 
It's possible that the rotation is improved enough from what it was in April-June 25 to roll with this lineup until the trade deadline.
Seattle, for example, loaded up on bats at the deadline and came up pretty close.

Gimenez is guaranteed $15.6 mil this year, then $23.6 mil from 2027-29. He might sit against the occasional lefty, but he's not going to be a super util guy. I do wish there was a way to bat him lower than 9th, though.

So should we be happy so far?

• Cease vs Bassitt big plus
• Ponce vs Scherzer probably a plus
• Rogers vs Dominguez a plus
• Okamoto vs Bo a likely negative

Those are the changes so far. Also lost are France, IKF, Pina, Tate, Burr, Sandlin, Lucas, Simon, and Bruihl. Also added are Enright, Winckowski (both out for '26), Chase Lee, Miles (Rule 5).

Bassitt and Bo are imo the only significant losses. Scherzer is getting old and having trouble now so losing him I don't see as a big deal. Dominguez was ... interesting. His wildness made me very uncomfortable. All 4 are still free agents so if the Jays want any of them it costs only cash and roster slots. Same for all other lost guys outside of Bruihl (has been in DFA limbo a lot). I could see a minor league deal for IKF and maaaybe a long man deal for Bassitt if they find a home for Berrios (pay most of his salary if he accepts his option years). A mid season signing of Scherzer if injury/effectiveness issues hit the rotation could happen - I see Scherzer as a half season pitcher now.

Addison Barger is the key to the 2026 Blue Jays, if he is on the team in another two months that is.

First half 2025 - OPS of .823
Second half 2025 0PS of .223

Barger was worth 1.2 WAR last year vs Gimenez at 1.1 WAR in 20% less time/games. Gimenez had WARs of 7.4, 5.0 and 4.0 before the trade.

You guys know how I feel about WAR... I'll take Barger and his production over Gimenez any day but would trade Barger and sign Tucker if any team sees Barger as a "First half, double his numbers and he will get better," player. That's a ton of value on the trade market.

I think for me the biggest unknown is which Springer we get. Are his adjustments sustainable? His OPS+ the last 4 years are: 132, 102, 91, 161(*)* - highest of career. He had at least 580 PA EACH of the last 4 years. Interestingly, his other "HIGH" OPS+ (best OPS) also came as season 4 of 550+ PA. Maybe that just means he was injury-free?

Is DH helping him stay fresh? Will league pitching re-adjust? Will he lose another few percent bat speed and just not be able to handle inside pitches anymore? Will David Popkins be able to work some magic?

And if he has ANOTHER season like 2025, do we try to resign him at a (reduced) rate going forward to continue to DH? Or do we say "So long, and thanks for all the (cuttle)fish"? I mean, 2025 was a 4.8 WAR season, half at DH.. That was totally unexpected from me, and it's hard to replace.

Also interesting - his BBRef "similar hitters" lists 6 former/current Jays: Barfield (#1 similar!!), Jayson Werth, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez.

I absolutely expect Springer to Regress. He had his career best offensive year at 35. Question to me is does he regress to a 130 WRC+ guy or a 105 WRC+ kind of guy. Also, how healthy can he stay? Also expect a much better year from Santander so think that he and Springer will kind of offset. Don't really see major hitters due for big regression aside from Springer, maybe Varsho but more playing time would balance that out. I expect Vladdy to be a lot better during the year but other than that, don't see a lot of guys having better seasons too (except Barger if things go well.) All this is to say that the Jays have a very good offense and with one more addition could make it a a fantastic offense.

I agree with Glevin. Santander and Springer is a wash in overall gain/loss.

Varsho and Barger are both risky to count on to be strong LHH. They were inconsistent and struggled badly for long portions of last season. If you could replace one of them with Tucker it makes the line up extremely improved.

Barger and Springer are both big question marks. Playoffs OPS in brackets.

• Barger by month: sOPS+: 43-146-112-141-59-93 (1025)
• Springer by month: sOPS+: 174-137-182-132-167-160 (899)

Barger had 3 great months, 2 bad, 1 meh, and a WOW playoff
Springer was damn good all year including the playoffs.

Basically Springer showed no signs of issues from start to finish. I've been worried a bit about how '26 would go, but that month to month 'wow' suggests he'll be fine. Barger is a kid finding his way. 2026 will decide if Barger is a key piece or not.

Santander is a likely flop, biggest waste of cash by the Jays to date. 4 seasons with a 120+ OPS+ before he came here, never more than 3.0 bWAR and just 3 seasons with 2+ (considered the acceptable level for a regular). Ah well, not my money. $73,391,895 wasted (based on factoring in deferred money). FYI: If Santander has a great 2027 he can opt out of his final two seasons. Very unlikely imo, but we can dream.

I'd have to see Santander have a terrible season in 2026 to say the deal was a waste. He started slow and was injured. 2025 was a write off. If he performs as expected in 2026 (based on expectations at time of signing the deal) then he will post 30+HR and likely lead the team in HR and RBI. Not sure how 13 million/year for that would be considered a waste. He's going to cost less than Okamoto so he'd basically have to be unplayable again for him to be considered a bad signing.

Why would I say "he was injured and bad in 2025 therefore I expect him to be perform that badly again when he's healthy?"

Let's look at the guys that have minor league options and maybe shouldn't be written in pen in a major league world series caliber roster (I.e., that are possibly better as backups and/or forcing their way on to the starting lineup with play):

Barger, 26, 204 MLB G, career OPS+ 94 (WAR/150G 1.18), last year OPS+ 105 (WAR/150G 1.33), Marcel Proj OPS 727, earliest FA 2031

Loperfido, 27, 122 MLB G, career OPS+ 93 (WAR/150G 1.35), last year OPS+ 140 (WAR/150G 2.20), Marcel Proj OPS 720, earliest FA 2031

Schneider, 27, 252 MLB G, career OPS+ 105 (WAR/150G 1.85), last year OPS+ 119 (WAR/150G 2.38), Marcel Proj OPS 741, earliest FA 2030

Lukes, 31, 186 MLB G, career OPS+ 103 (WAR/150G 2.58), last year OPS+ 100 (WAR/150G 2.22), Marcel Proj OPS 727, earliest FA 2031

Like all of these guys are useful pieces and might be good enough to play on a playoff quality team, but easily might not. It isn't clear - at least from the ML track record - why Barger is worth worrying about playing time for as opposed to say Schneider or one of the others.

No minor league options (up or out, probably out):

Leo Jimenez, 25, 81 MLB G, career OPS+ 80 (WAR/150G 1.11), last year OPS+ -18 (WAR/150G -2.50), Marcel Proj OPS 693, earliest FA 2032?

Jonatan Clase, 24, 60 MLB G, career OPS+ 71 (WAR/150G -0.5), last year OPS+ 63 (WAR/150G -0.88), Marcel Proj OPS 694, earliest FA 2032

Others with either age/injury/bat concerns but no real ability to go to minors:

Clement, 30, 434 MLB G, career OPS+ 87 (WAR/150G 2.73), last year OPS+ 95 (WAR/150G 4.11), Marcel Proj OPS 709, earliest FA 2029

Straw, 31, 699 MLB G, career OPS+ 77 (WAR/150G 2.21), last year OPS+ 87 (WAR/150G 3.18), Marcel Proj OPS 652, earliest FA 2029 (if the team uses options, 2027 or 2028 if they buyout options)

Gimenez, 27, 669 MLB G, career OPS+ 96 (WAR/150G 4.35), last year OPS+ 66 (WAR/150G 1.63), Marcel Proj OPS 663, earliest FA 2030 (if the team uses its option, 2029 if they don't)

Santander, 31, 800 MLB G, career OPS+ 110 (WAR/150G 1.93), last year OPS+ 57 (WAR/150G -2.78), Marcel Proj OPS 750, earliest FA 2030 (if the team uses its option, 2029 if they don't although Santander can opt out in 2028)

Varsho, 29, 648 MLB G, career OPS+ 99 (WAR/150G 4.14), last year OPS+ 122 (WAR/150G 5.92), Marcel Proj OPS 728, earliest FA 2027

Springer, 36, 1445 MLB G, career OPS+ 128 (WAR/150G 4.39), last year OPS+ 161 (WAR/150G 5.14), Marcel Proj OPS 772, earliest FA 2027

4 of these 6 are ++ defensive guys where the glove makes them have value beyond their bat (and Varsho is a guy we'd love to extend, possibly the Straw options are contingent on if we extend Varsho or not, possibly not since they are only $8M which could be a backup price). Springer is towards the end of a Hall of Very Good player's career. Santander is the ? of these 6.

For fun, 4 others:

Kirk, 27, 564 MLB G, career OPS+ 108 (WAR/150G 3.01), last year OPS+ 111 (WAR/150G 2.65), Marcel Proj OPS 735, earliest FA 2031

Vlad, 27, 975 MLB G, career OPS+ 136 (WAR/150G 3.98), last year OPS+ 133 (WAR/150G 4.42), Marcel Proj OPS 861, earliest FA 2040

Bo, 28, 748 MLB G, career OPS+ 121 (WAR/150G 4.21), last year OPS+ 129 (WAR/150G 3.78), Marcel Proj OPS 780, currently FA

Tucker, 29, 769 MLB G, career OPS+ 140 (WAR/150G 5.33), last year OPS+ 143 (WAR/150G 5.07), Marcel Proj OPS 866, currently FA

Again, ignoring $, I think it is foolish to think there isn't room on a playoff caliber team's roster for both Tucker and Bo. There's no reason to believe that because we have Barger we don't need Tucker or signing Okamoto and having Clement and Gimenez means we wouldn't sign Bo. Totally different talent level, consistency, and profile. Probably more likely we end up with 0 than 2 (although hopefully more likely with 1 than 0), but if we want to act like the old Yankees or new Dodgers, no reason not to get them both!

It's not the biggest point, but I haven't seen much mention of the fact that the Jays would be extremely close to the fourth threshold of the luxury tax by signing either Bo or Tucker (and would definitely exceed it by signing both) and they'll almost certainly have their first round draft pick moved back by ten slots.

Not the biggest consideration, particularly at the end of the first round, but I don't see a way around that if either one of them is signed, unless I'm misreading the luxury tax rules.

Schultz DFA'd.

I think everyone here would LOVE the Jays to sign Bo & Tucker. It ain't our cash. However Rogers does need to pay attention to the bottom line as do Atkins & Shapiro (if they want to keep their jobs). So is Bo's likely 10-20 OPS+ points and likely poor defense worth $26-30 mil a year for 8 years? Is Tucker's likely 30-40 OPS+ points worth $30-40 mil a year for 11 years? That is the question the Jays are debating. Loperfido-Barger-Schneider-Lukes are likely to be around a 100 OPS+ so that is a massive upgrade in Tucker (1-2.5 WAR for the Jays current guys vs Tucker 5 WAR) At $10 mil per WAR in the FA market that is worth $30-$40 mil which is about what he is asking for. Bo, on the other hand, is around a 3.5-4 WAR guy vs Clement a 2.5-3.0 WAR guy - so a gain of 1 WAR roughly, or about $10 mil while he is asking for $26+ mil.

A very big question is growth too - Barger easily has the most projected growth potential after his 1000 OPS in the playoffs last year and a handful of WOW months mixed with a handful of 'ugh' months. Which is the real Barger - a WOW hitter, a ugh hitter, or a meh hitter? Massive difference in projection depending. If Tucker is signed then where does Barger go? He was replaced at 3B by Okamoto, and if Tucker is signed there goes RF. In LF we have Santander but his best fWAR is a 3.2, bWAR is a 3.0. So even at his very best he would provide at most a 1 WAR improvement over the assorted in-house options, and odds are low he'll be there given his nightmare 2025 and many years of 'meh' overall value. When it looked like we had few decent options for the OF last winter he made sense (no better options available) but now... now he is a liability. If Tucker is signed the Jays need to try to dump Santander somewhere while paying most of his salary (an ouch, but that is how things go) then put Barger in LF with Schneider as a backup/semi-platoon partner.

Now, where could Santander (and whoever loses out in the OF from the Jays, be it Schneider, Lukes, or Straw - can't see all 3 sticking around) be traded to? Last year the worst MLB outfields (sub 2 WAR overall) were ChiSox-St Louis-Colorado-Pittsburgh-Cleveland-KC with KC getting negative WAR from their OF'ers. KC has added for their OF - Isaac Collins (2 WAR LF), Lane Thomas (once good, but now projected sub 100 wRC+ and sub 1 WAR in LF/CF), and Kameron Misner (projected sub 80 wRC+ at age 28). They lost Randal Grichuk, Mike Yastrzemski, Adam Frazier, and MJ Melendez leaving only Kyle Isbel (CF) as an OF on their roster who had more than 0.5 fWAR in '25 for them. Yikes. Basically all our options for the OF would be an improvement for them. Their DH was even uglier (no one over 0.2 fWAR there, and that was Bobby Witt in 4 games). I could see dumping Santander there with Lukes and a prospect or two in an effort to give them a shot at future growth (and not totally sucking in '26). With that horrid OF (all 3 projected sub 2 WAR in 2026) and a poor 2B (projected sub 1 WAR) I could see them wanting Schneider (could fill in LF/2B easily). Projected DH is Jonathan India (1.5 fWAR projected). I could see the Jays taking India and his $8 mil salary off the Royals hands as part of a deal (he can play 3B/2B/LF with around a 100 OPS+ so a decent backup) while filling their OF/DH with Santander & Schneider plus some cash and/or prospects. I'd chase Matt Strahm (LH reliever) as well - 1 year left on his deal at $7.5 mil with 10.11 K/9 2.89 BB/9 0.72 HR/9 - all nice figures last year. That'd clear out some of our excess while helping the Royals in 2026 be more decent (still not a contender) and clear some of their payroll while helping the Jays pen/bench strength. Not my dumbest idea hopefully.

Interesting about Clase and the option as I read he didn't have one, but then yeah I see more recent articles saying the Jays were granted an additional option year for him. I'm not sure how that works (is it a covid provision?). He probably isn't good enough to worry about, but keeping lottery tickets in the minors is usually good even if the odds are they never work out.

On the penalty and losing the 10 draft spots, I think the signing of Okamoto has already done that (that's what the articles claimed), so I think there is no further penalty for signing Bo and/or Tucker in terms of levels of salary impacts (other than the fixed % over they are already subject to).

I think the odds of KC trading for Strahm in an effort to compete nd then trading him away two months later are pretty small.

Not impossible, but small.

Roster Resource at Fangraphs has the estimated payroll at $279 and the mark for losing a draft pick is $284, if I understand it correctly.

However, maybe Roster Resource doesn't take into account salaries that aren't confirmed, such as all arbitration-eligible players. That could be the discrepancy.

If one reads the Roster Resource page carefully, one might even notice it has a handy luxury tax estimator that is currently at $308...

I’m guessing the Blue Jays land Tucker. He is the player that makes the most sense for them to add at this point, in my opinion.

Yup, go get Tucker, let Barger and Okamoto share time at 3B, Clement and Gimenez share time at SS and Clement and Schneider share time at 2B.

Bo still makes most sense to me. By a lot tbh.

Okamoto at 3B pushes Barger to corner OF only, and when Okamoto plays 1B/DH that pushes Springer to corner OF as well. And of course Santander Lukes and Schneider are all corner OF only as well.

but at 2B/SS we only have Clement and Gimenez. we have nothing to put in the lineup there when either of them are out of the lineup or struggling.

the only caveat is if they think Schneider can play significant time at 2B but they've never shown that they believe that.

Would anybody think Barger could play 2B?

I wouldn’t sign the second-best player available instead of the best player in order to accommodate lesser players like Santander, Lukes and Schneider. That would be putting the cart before the horse. Those secondary issues can be sorted out via trade or otherwise.

Tucker is a career 141 wRC+ hitter against RHP. Bo is a career 119 wRC+ against them. Which player would you want at the top of the starting lineup against RHP? And that’s before getting into which player is a better baserunner and base-stealer, and which one is a better defender.

And haven’t the Blue Jays already run the RHB-heavy lineup experiment a few years ago? It didn’t work out well then. The Blue Jays are going to need a strong LHB in the competition for the AL East title and in the postseason. Varsho, Barger and Gimenez aren’t enough.

Bo is a great and valuable hitter and I would be pleased to see the Blue Jays re-sign him, if the alternative is doing nothing. But Tucker would be my first choice.

Couldn't have said it any better. There's no circumstance where it makes more sense to sign Bo over Tucker with the current roster unless it's to save money.

I think this all but confirmed Bo is not returning. What they need is a LH bat, not another iffy defense RH infielder. The more I look at it the more I like the signing. I'll be interested to see what comes next. Hopefully Tucker and then get the Angels to pick up the Berrios/Santander contract.

nothing to do with 'accomodating' anyone. just noting the obvious that the roster is full of good corner OF types and doesn't have one dependable middle IF.

Fair point.

The FA + trade I mentioned a while back, Tucker plus Donovan, would still make a lot of sense for the Blue Jays. That would seemingly address all needs and make this a powerhouse roster.

Feel dumb over not picking up that Strahm was a trade acquisition by the Royals, but one can be forgiven as they sucked last year and look like they'll suck this year, but they are in a AAA division so contending is possible. And given that maybe they want a big power bat to put behind Witt in the order. Even if it only gets the Jays a low level minor league prospect it'd be a good thing.

Now, as to Bo vs Tucker - I prefer a LH bat to hit 2nd between Springer and Vlad as that could lead to a lot of Springer facing LH relievers (in to see Gimenez and Tucker, has to deal with Springer) which is a good thing. Tucker has Bo by 10-20 wRC+ points most years and Tucker actually can run still. I figure the Jays know a heck of a lot more about Bo's status than we do and thus know if he is able to play 2B everyday in 2026 and beyond, and if he'll be any good on the bases going forward. I suspect they'll keep saying they want him until he signs elsewhere to help him get the best deal possible (the more Bo gets, the less a competitor of the Jays has to spend in the future on other players). If they do get Tucker then the OF crowding will need to be addressed for sure. Bo means Clement becomes part time. Yeah, if no Bo then I worry a bit about if Clement or Gimenez goes down, but Schneider is capable of part time play, say a month or so, at 2B. Josh Kasevich might be ready in '26 but unlikely. I suspect if no Bo then the Jays will go out and sign a couple of half decent AAAA IF'ers who can play 2B and SS. Maybe even IKF (yikes! John Schneider likes him too much, so I'd be scared he'd come up and be used right away).

I found the discussion by Eno Sarris and Derek Van Riper about Tucker and Bo over at Rates and Barrels quite entertaining and insightful:

https://youtu.be/FnVTWWPeRZc?si=Wr0tKgh7yQyHbqeM

and for audio only:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/657mEhYtqqxnIwkyo43K8H?si=5jwAA8FTTO-crMi95EQ7mg

The relevant discussion starts at about the 2:30 mark and runs for about 20 minutes. They really dig into stats regarding measures of tools and ability.

Just checked the projections for Colorado and boy are they ugly.  1.5 the peak WAR projected for any of the 5 OF/DH/1B slots.  Brenton Doyle in CF is the only one over 0.6 (at 1.5).  For the Jays only Santander is projected below 1.9 (1.2).  Lukes & Schneider are both in the low 1's (1.1 and 1.0 respectively) but in part time play (around 300 PA each).  Any of those 3 would be an upgrade for Colorado and I'd imagine a HR hitter like Santander would be fun to watch there.  Wonder if they have any interest.  Their rotation only has Kyle Freeland at 1.0 or better at 1.7 so they could use Berrios too as a stable inning eater so their pen isn't too overused.  For balancing the books maybe the Jays could take on Kris Bryant who is owed $27 mil a year for 3 years.  $81 mil vs Berrios $74.1 + Santander $69.5.  So basically the Jays would clear out 2 guys they don't need, Colorado gets 2 players who could help them, and the Jays save $62.6 mil.  Bryant goes on the 60 day IL immediately at the start of the season and stays there until he gets better (unlikely to happen, but who knows?).  Might be the best option.  Maybe see if Colorado can add a minor prospect or draft pick (Rockies have a competitive balance pick which can be traded).  A win-win deal or lose-lose depending how one looks at the players involved.

Thanks, Jacob. I listened to the podcast.

So essentially, Eno would not go beyond about $250-300m for Tucker because, although he's good at everything, Tucker isn't elite like other highly-paid superstar position players like Ohtani, Judge, and Soto. His concern is that he's already at or past his peak. He's a 4 WAR player now (if you believe the projections), so that if he starts declining at around 0.5 WAR per year, he wouldn't be worth a massive $380-460m contract.

Derek is more sanguine about Tucker and thinks that, while he is clearly below the Ohtani/Judge/Soto tier, he's still very good and could be a 5 WAR player now, meaning that he would be worth signing to a big contract. He doesn't have major concerns about Tucker's injury history because they aren't chronic-type injuries like shoulder or back issues (Santander, ahem).

Both Eno and Derek had significant concerns about how well a long-term Bo contract would age. The concerns related to Bo's recent injuries, his severely diminished speed, his having to move off of the SS position, and his hitting profile (reliance on high BABIP, doesn't walk much, and hitters like Bo who rely on getting to pitches outside the zone tend to age poorly as they become less able to get to those pitches). They like him as a hitter maybe up to about age 32 but wouldn't want to give him a long-term contract.

Mitch Bannon has a new article posted on The Athletic ("Bridesmaids no more: Blue Jays are building a narrative-changing offseason"). It's a good balanced piece, although it doesn't contain much new content. He does include a significant nugget, however:

"While it could require subtraction from an already record-high payroll, a team source said the Jays can still add further."

Tucker being a “jack of all trades, master of none” is a fair argument. He’s not great at anything but good to very good at everything. That’s not a knock on him but usually in free agency you pay for an elite skill somewhere when it’s in the $300-500M range. I don’t think Tucker has that (Vlad, for example, does even though the results haven’t always been there). So not wanting to go above $250M-300M is reasonable, and I’d probably agree even though I really like Tucker as a player. Ultimately it comes down to what the market says a player is worth. The fact that he’s still out there in January and the number of suitors are likely limited to begin with tells me that teams might be having a similar valuation of him and are just waiting for his demands to drop.

If the Jays can get him for below $300M, then it would be a huge win, and you can figure out the rest later (ex. selling low on Santander). If they miss on both Tucker and Bo, then not sure where they go. They might stand pat in that scenario. Not much else in free agency. It’s a new year and so they haven’t made their annual trade with the Guardians yet. Maybe it ends up being Kwan.

Nice posts, links and updates all.

The thing about Tucker and whether he is worth it or not...the criticisms are all based on evaluations in a vacuum. Doesn't it matter that the Blue Jays are oh so close to being the best team in baseball again? Doesn't it matter than next year's free agents are junk and you won't get to sign another good one for a while? Does it register that this team hasn't had a steady top of the line up LHH player in decades? The Dodgers have two bonafide LHH (Freeman and Ohtani) and their top prospect Rushing is a LHH. Jays are still relying on Varsho and Barger.

If we listen to the criticisms of Tucker (and Bo) being signed to longer term deals then why weren't the same principles applied to Vlad Guerrero Jr and his 14 year 500 million dollar contract? Where will he be at the age of 39? The reality is successful teams right now find creative ways to acquire players without going bankrupt or belly up a few years down the road. I don't see any way this FO doesn't sacrifice a draft pick and go over the Cohen tax threshold (304,000,000). They currently estimate to be at 295,000,000 which is too close to the highest threshold to add Tucker or Bo (unless they can unload other contracts or don't care about paying the penalty).

Dodgers are at 342,000,000 while the Mets and Phillies are both slightly under the highest threshold and ahead of the Jays.

Let me clarify that I also see the risk of signing Tucker to a 380-460 million dollar contract to be a bad idea. I just think it's a mistake for the Jays not to go past the luxury tax and sign him for whatever the price will be to pay the most as they did with Cease, fully understanding that the market is "corrected" for the remaining free agents and nobody wants to over pay for Tucker. I haven't listened to the podcast linked earlier but how many years was the 380-460 contract for? What was the AAV?

I think the Reds could use a bat. Maybe Santander could be flipped to them to clear some payroll space for Tucker?

I could see Bellinger being added if the gap between Tucker’s demands and Belli’s demands gets too big.

If the top FAs remain out of reach, it would not surprise me if the Blue Jays pivoted to a trade to add a LH bat (Marte, Donovan, Kwan or someone else). I think the team well knows they need a quality LH #2 hitter to make the lineup more imposing.

The thing to remember about top FAs is that you usually have to pay more than the original estimates to land the player (part of this is the typical 5% annual MLB salary inflation). A lot of us thought Vladdy should get around $250-300m, maybe $350m, *maybe* $400m. He waited and stood his ground and got $500m with no deferred money.

As Andrew Friedman said, "If you are always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

I think Tucker will get his $400m (maybe with a chunk of that money deferred, so that the present value is closer to $350m). Or he’ll get a very high AAV pillow contract, maybe for two or three years with an opt-out every year.

In all of this, a factor I am trying to assess is whether the Jays can help any current team member or prospective player raise their hitting game - over and above the net affect of player regressions.

We all got pretty pumped last year at how many Jays hitters reached another performance level (Vlad, Springer, Bo, Lukes) or kicked it up a notch post-season (Ernie, Barger). There was much talk about Popkins and co being a driving force, not to mention the Trajekt machine. Will that all just prove to be statistical noise that will regress to the mean in 2026?

What if, instead, Okamoto could be coached into performing at his NPB levels without the typical falloff in the tougher MLB environment? What if Varsho and Barger could be coached into performing at a consistent level closer to last year’s best months? What if we signed Tucker and he could be guided into rising to another level? What if post-season Ernie could be coached Into translating that into regular-season Ernie?

The Jays are talking about helping Santander to getting off to a strong start (and presumably sustaining that).

Can we develop / strengthen hitters more effectively better than before?

yeah i dunno about a super-utlity guy who can't cover any of the prime defensive positions. Sounds like he's replacing the Davis Schneider slot on the roster. Kinda feels like Okamoto is mostly a play for the Asian market.

Sounds like he's replacing the Davis Schneider slot on the roster.

Does Schneider not currently have some safety on the roster due to being able to play 2B? Aside from Clement and Gimenez, who else is there for the middle infield? Of course, should they sign Bichette the dynamics all change.

Man, this FO has got to have some knowledge of trades lined up for any of this to make sense (the glut of Schneider, Loperfido, Clement, Santander, Barger). They gotta have an agreement in place like "we have Schneider, Loperfido, and Nimmala to the Guardians for Kwan if we sign Bo," and "Loperfido, Clement, Tiedeman, Nimmala for Marte if we sign Tucker."

BNS tamping down expectations a bit on Sportsnet, saying he thinks the Mets and other teams might be more motivated than TO to give Tucker and Bo the big contracts they want. Said that Okamoto might be the big position player splash for the Blue Jays this offseason.

Doesn’t sound like he has any insider info, though.

roster would make much more sense to me with no Santander tbh.

as it is, the next bat we sign means one of Schneider or Lukes is off the roster I think.

and then if we feel the need to add an actual trustworthy middle IF backup like IKF, then both of those guys are off the roster.

"roster would make much more sense to me with no Santander tbh."

This is the same sentiment everyone had for George Springer last year. Give the player a chance to perform healthy.

One or two trades can clear out the glut and lower the payroll. The good thing about adding free agents as we all know is it makes it easier to part ways with prospects. Unloading Berrios and his AAV along with John King or Stanifer is one way of opening more payroll space without going over the last threshold where you lose a draft pick.

-------------------------
Salary and Payroll estimates for 2026

Jose Berrios - 18,714,286
Yariel Rodrigues - 6,400,000
Eric Lauer - 5,300,000

There's about 30,000,000 which would lower the overall estimated payroll to 264,000,000 or thereabouts...about 40,000,000 from the last threshold.

The players that are costing a lot for performance right now are Myles Straw and Anders Gimenez who together cost over 21,000,000. I can see why so many Beauxites were up in arms over the acquisition of both players if it now means they can't sign a Tucker or Bo.

I'm just wary of messing with the position players too much. Once the Jays got rolling in June, it was because of contributions from every player. Hazel Mae seemed to have a different game hero to interview every night.

Every team needs their "glue guys", the ones that keep everybody's spirits up and do the little things like organizing team dinners or outings on day's off. Reportedly, Straw was the Jay's best glue guy last year. Maybe Straw is overpaid, but he contributed a heck of a lot more than people thought he would.

yeah I don't mind moves for clear upgrades (like we did with the pitching), but spending a whole bunch of money for a marginal on-paper position player upgrade while messing around with the team chemistry a bit too much isn't the best plan imo.

Super-utility makes sense to me. Not that Okamoto can play everywhere but that he can play enough positions to move other guys around. Having ten guys for nine positions is fine. Even with no injuries, they'd all play a tonand guys do get hurt. As I said earlier, it does fit better with Bo at 2B because then Clement can cover 2B/SS/3B but if Tucker, Jays can KEEP Schneider for 2B or look to get other utility guy. It doesn't have to be IKF!

The issue with Tucker now is that it would force the team to choose between Barger and Santander for playing time. Maybe they end up dumping Santander in that scenario and it's a moot point, but I think the "there's nothing wrong with having too many good players" argument, while logical, is not practical. How many teams have starting caliber players off the bench on purpose? It's one thing to move Clement to a bench role because he's an average player at best and his utility comes from being able to play 3 positions really well. He just played a lot last season because the manager loved him and there weren't better options than him. Otherwise, a super utility player is his ideal role. It's another thing to put a veteran (Santander) or a young player coming off an intriguing rookie season (Barger) on the bench. Santander is not going to want a bench role, and while Barger might end up more of a platoon bat, you still want him in the lineup everyday against RHP.

Before Okamoto I would have went with Tucker easily, and I'd probably still lean that way in general, but as mentioned I think this signing actually makes Bichette more logical of a signing. Either that or trade for Brendan Donovan if you want a LHB and start him at 2B.

Isn't Okamoto insane against LHP and so so against RHP? If that's the case (which I heard on a podcast) then essentially he, Barger, Clement, Gimenez and Schneider would all be used as super-platoon players covering 3 positions (3B, SS, 2B).

3B Okamoto (LHP) and Barger (RHP)
SS Clement (LHP) and Gimenez (RHP)
2B Schneider (LHP) and Clement (RHP)

Okamoto and Barger can pick up more starts for days off to Springer, Vlad and Santander pretty easily.

Under this sceneario which is most similar to last years line up, you have Loperfido or Lukes patrolling a regular OF spot. With Tucker those guys would be bench players or traded and the only major concern is losing a 1st round pick.

The big problem with clearing out Berrios, Rodriguez, and Lauer is they are expensive insurance policies against injuries to the rotation and pen. Plus anyone taking on those contracts would want something in return - if cash then it doesn't help the luxury tax situation, if players then we lose some minor league depth for salary relief. Loperfido/Lukes/Schneider/Clase/Jimenez are all 100% expendable right now but none have much value. Equivalent of about $3-5 mil maybe. So enough that one could be packaged with Rodriguez to balance it out for a C prospect.

FYI: FanGraphs finally posted a story about the Okamoto signing. Basically, his balanced hitting/fielding fits in nicely with the Jays. After posting fee he costs $70.875 mil over 4 years (posting fee doesn't factor into luxury tax btw). Sadly no ZIPS projection for the next 3 years as they do sometimes for these guys. It'll come eventually. Colorado just covered, so 5 AL teams left, and 5 NL teams left to get ZIPs projections. Latest was Colorado which was Ugly (4 positions sub 1 WAR, 2 more sub 2 - their only league average slots are C/SS/CF - hey, strength up the middle - poor Rockies fans. Rotation is a joke with 1 guy projected over 0.8.

FYI: Going into 2025 the Jays were projected with issues in RF (1.6 Springer/Lukes) and DH (Wagner/Springer/Schneider/Martinez/Barger). Going back to the bad days 2019 had ugly situations at SS (Guriel? 0.2), 2B (1.0 Travis/Drury), LF (1.3 McKinney/Hernandez), and DH (Morales 1.1). The rotation had 2 good guys (Stroman/Sanchez) then the rest was 1.2 or less each. The pen was good at 3.6 (Giles/Tepera/etc.).

Kind of interesting looking back and remembering how bad it was just a few years ago. Vlad just getting started, the team sucked and had few reasons to hope, they were trying guys at odd positions (Guriel at SS, Vlad at 3B - those poor pitchers).

It shouldn't be ernie moving to the bench in that scenario.


Last 3yrs

Clement 3.5war/650, 90wrc+ vRHP, 114wrc+ vLHP
Gimenez 3.1war/650, 89wrc+ vRHP, 75wrc+ vLHP

Clement +18.5 def rating/1350in @SS, +14.1 def rating/1350in @2B
Gimenez +9.1 def rating/1350in @SS, +15.9 def rating/1350in @2b

The calls to bench Ernie and Ernie bashing has started already! Can an MVP be far behind?

If we take a poll here and ask Beauxites to order the following players in order of value to the team, I would be shocked if Clement wasn't a land slide win:

Clement
Barger
Varsho
Gimenez
Schneider

Varsho is the clear best player from that list, and who I'd love to see us lock up for a few more years.

I wasn't even criticizing Clement this time! He is a 96 wRC+ player since 2024 with an 87 wRC+ against RHP and 2.6 average fWAR average over that span. He plays great defense at 2B/SS/3B. That's a very valuable role player. If the Jays weren't paying Gimenez the money they are, then he'd be my choice for starting SS, but I think he's a much better fit in a super utility role where he still gets 400-600 PA depending on injuries, rest, etc.

My point was simply that Santander was a 120 wRC+ player for years before 2025, and Barger is one of the few cheap upside plays on the roster. Benching either of them makes a lot less sense than using Clement in a utility role.

Too many undervalue defense. Any method that factors in defense has guys like Clement, Varsho, and Gimenez as very valuable. Preventing a hit is as valuable as getting one. Anyone who watched the Jays in the late 90's should know that - when we had Shawn Green in CF, Jose Canseco in RF, and Tony Phillips in LF. I mean, that was big time ugly. How Roger Clemens won the pitchers triple crown with that outfield at times is beyond me (he did win at least one game with that exact outfield plus Delgado at 1B, Fernandez at 2B when he was more a DH quality fielder, and Ed Sprague at 3B who never was a good fielder).

Yes, you need to score runs to win. But without quality fielding you need to score a lot more. It'll be interesting to see if our pitching looks a lot better with Gimenez at SS for all of 2026. From Sept 7th (after Bo went down) to the end of the regular season the Jays staff ERA was 3.79. Starters 4.45. For all of 2025 the starters were 4.34, overall 4.19. So the pen was visibly better, the rotation not so much. For Sept 7 to the end Gausman, Yesavage, Scherzer, Bieber, Bassitt, Berrios, and Varland started. Scherzer screwed the numbers to hell with his 10.20 ERA over 4 starts (15 IP). The rest of the rotation was 31 ER over 82 IP or a 3.40 ERA.

If Varsho can keep up his sudden power surge, AND get his arm back, then he's a valuable player.

If it turns out his 100-points-higher-than-career-slg was just a career year and his arm is as bad as during the playoffs, when they were running on him at will, I'm not dying to resign him to some long extension.

How about signing Bichette and Austin Hays. Hays hits LHP pretty well (crushed them last season over about 100 PAs). Pair him with either Barger or Loperfido and you have a pretty good hitting OF spot (although the stats make Hays' defence look ugly). With Bo, Clement can still take 15-20 starts at each of 2B/SS and 3B and provides extraordinary injury insurance. Additionally, he can be the short-side platoon mate for Gimenez which might create a 6-7 WAR ss position.

The idea of pairing Hays with one of Loperfido or Barger seems appealing because if one of the two is a pumpkin, you still have a chance that the other is average or better. Without signing Bo, what is the back-up plan for the state-of-the-world in which Clement turns out to be a pumpkin against RHPs or if either Clement/Gimenez gets an extended IL visit?

I do see the argument for a Tucker and a Donovan but Donovan could cost Nimmala and something else like a Loperfido or more likely a King or Stanifer.

As an aside, a recent Baseball America podcast considered the possibility that Nimmala could be their #1 rated prospect overall entering 2027 and it was viewed as a darkhorse outcome... but not impossible. Signing Bo might then mean trading Nimmala for something like a CF next winter.

Fun stuff for the fan.

I wouldn't trade Nimmala unless I was getting someone who is a 3+ WAR guy today who is young enough to keep that up - FYI: that isn't Donovan. Marte, yes, but not Donovan (1 year at 4, 2 in the 2's, 1 in the 1's, fWAR of 3.2 once, twice in the 2's, once in the 1's).

As others have pointed out, many here and in the media sell Clement short. 2 years as a semi-regular and he has produced 3.4 and 4.3 bWAR (fWAR of 2.1/3.2). Lots of that is in defense, thus the wide variation between the 2 WARs. Still, in bWAR he has more 3+ seasons than Donovan has and his peak in fWAR is as good as Donovan's peak there. Donovan's biggest advantage is his bat - 119 wRC+ lifetime vs Clement's 87. Marte has the bat (121 wRC+ lifetime) and the WAR (twice in the 6's, twice in the 4's, last 3 years are 4-6-4 fWAR and a net of 16.2 bWAR but is heading into his age 32 season vs Donovan's going into his age 29 and Clement age 30. Bo of course has a 5/4/2 3's as a 100+ game guy, (2 4's, 2 3's in fWAR) entering his age 28 season. But in raw dollars Bo is the most expensive (free agent, expected to be $25-$30 mil per) with Marte around $16 mil per (long term deal), and Donovan & Clement in arbitration years.

For pure value, sticking with Clement makes sense at 2B. For maximum WAR Marte is probably best, followed by Bo. Donovan would be a nice to have, but I can't see it making sense for the Jays right now unless they see something long term in him.

As to Varsho - only the Jays know what his arm is like right now and if he will continue to be a WOW defensive CF. His bat, lord knows. He had a TON of power in '25 but will that hold in '26 and beyond? If it will then he should get a nice 5 year deal from the Jays to cover his age 29-33 seasons (what is left of his peak years), if not then wait out until free agency and see if he'll go for a 3 year deal.

Maybe Bo was just waiting until after his wedding to sign.

https://x.com/LindsayDunnTV/status/2008289322907103472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2008289322907103472%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

The Jays have the following outfielders: Barger. Springer, Lukes, Schneider, Straw and Santander.

Even acknowledging Springer is basically a DH, this also doesn't count Okamoto, who can seemingly fill in at outfield, nor does it count Loperfido or Clause.

I appreciate the thought, but, if they didn't land Tucker, I wouldn't be rushing to sign an outfielder who put up 0.7 WAR combined in the last two years to add to that mix.

Hays can hit lefties, but is on the wrong side of 30, can't hit righties well and isn't good defensively. And, if a team is carrying a short-side platoon outfielder, they're going to get a fair amount of at bats against righties, given Straw seems nailed on for the 5th outfielder role.

Yeah, right now it is Santander-Varsho-Barger with Straw and Schneider available to fill in for Barger if he needs help vs LHP, Straw also could cover for Varsho in CF. Lukes is a spare part - too good for AAA, not quite good enough for everyday play - tough spot to be in. Springer should DH 90% of the time, play in LF for Santander the other 10% (pushing Santander to DH or bench). Any upgrade has to be significant (ie: a 3+ WAR player) as these guys can do 2+ each easily one would think. Okamoto should be an emergency OF only imo, much like Vlad is an emergency 3B.

Mike Wilner was pretty emphatic in his outlook of the Jays plans recently:

Barger will not play against LHP
Okamoto will play full time at 3B
Gimenez will not play against LHP
Schneider will not play against RHP
Clement will not play against RHP

So pretty much SS becomes a platoon with two excellent defensive fielders and above average hitters when platooned.

Barger would platoon with either Myles Straw or Davis Schneider

There is still room for Bo to make an easy return to 2B and fit perfectly.

Nathan Lukes has lost his spot.

Only way Tucker can return is if Barger is held back a year or so (barring injury)


-----------------------

It kind of all makes sense. Wait for the price to come down on either Bo or Tucker with Bo being the better fit right now but Tucker still possible and only awkward if no injuries occur to Santander, Springer and Varsho all year.

* Only way Tucker is signed (not returns)

Jays have Juan Caricote, C projected to get the 18th highest bonus on BA's Bonus Board.

18.Juan Caricote, C, L-R 6-1 185, Nov. 5, 2008, Venezuela, Blue Jays

Meanwhile in Yankee land
Wilber Sánchez@wilberdata · 20h

SOURCE: Brian Cashman ordered the cancellation of all the organization’s international pre-agreements.

The Bronx Bombers have begun a restructuring process in which the new international director will be primarily responsible for implementing a revamped international signing system, aimed at restoring legitimacy and transparency to the process.

Note: There are 10 days (now 9 days) remaining before the international signing period opens.

Absolutely crazy what's happening with Yankees and should be bigger story. Imagine giving up all your IFAs for one year. That's massive. Why? They want to restructure? Ok, wait until March and do it then for the next seasons. Losing an entire class is huge. Juan Sanchez looks fantastic and hopefully Jays can get someone like that out of this class.

All agreements, not just this years.

Yankees had agreements '27-'30 classes

After Okamoto, signing Tucker seems a lot more tedious now (likely involves moving someone in a trade), whereas Bichette is more seamless as it wouldn't involve any important piece having be to moved. Lukes is fine as a 4th OF but if he's the casualty in adding a 3-4 WAR player, then that's pretty reasonable.

DH Springer
RF Barger
1B Guerrero Jr.
2B Bichette
LF Santander
CA Kirk
CF Varsho
3B Okamoto
SS Gimenez

BN Clement, Straw, Schneider, Heineman

Only "issue" there is that there's only 3 LHB and 1 switch hitter, but all the RHB in the starting lineup above are split neutral (with Okamoto having no MLB data in that regard), while 2 of the LHB likely need platoon mates (Barger and Gimenez), so this configuration works out.

Okamoto says he has two nicknames. "Big Baby" and "Big Oak". The Bat and Streamer both have him with similar projections (2.5/2+7 WAR).

Ross making noises in this presser about not needing to sign anyone else and that any signing would mean someone good is pushed off the roster.

The roster looks like a tough place to fit Tucker until you flip to next year's line up:

LF Schneider
RF Barger
1B Guerrero Jr.
2B Bichette
DH Santander
CA Kirk
CF Loperfido
3B Okamoto
SS Gimenez

You lose Varsho, Springer and Straw after this year which leaves you with Schneider, Lukes, Loperfido and Barger for your OF with Santander at DH.

none of those guys can replace Varsho tho.

"Ross making noises in this presser about not needing to sign anyone else and that any signing would mean someone good is pushed off the roster."

He didn't say that. He said it would take away time from existing players who they think are good which is objectively true.

not sure how that's different than what I said?

Piggybacking off my earlier post, here is the Jays lineup with Tucker:

DH Springer
LF Tucker
1B Guerrero Jr.
RF Barger/Santander
CA Kirk
CF Varsho
3B Okamoto
2B Clement
SS Gimenez

BN Straw, Schneider, Lukes, Heineman

The ideal scenario here would be dumping Santander and either getting an overpaid (but useful) utility infielder in return, or dumping him and signing one. The infield depth in the minors is not good, and Jimenez is out of options. They would need someone to fill in there, and for the love of god, don't say IKF.

Signing Tucker and then shaving let's say half of Santander's remaining commitment in a trade is still a significant outlay. I wonder where Rogers is going to draw the line with payroll.

It is very good.

But all in all, it's just a downgrade from last year - from Bo to Big Baby Oak.

The pitching improvements more than offset the difference between Bichette and Okamoto.  Kudos to the FO. 

Lukes is a useful piece as a AAAA / backup OF, but given his age and track record there is no loss to not having him make the team. Note he does still have an option so they don't lose him for him not making the 26.

Note also they aren't necessarily losing Straw at the end of this year. They have 2 more 1 year options for $8M each. They may or may not want to have those, but if/when they lose Varsho (and to be clear - I'm very much in the extend him camp) I'd think Straw would have even more value for his glove as a backup and LIDR and $8M isn't unreasonable for that role for a playoff contending team.

Atkins may well have been telling the truth, but as it wouldn't have been in his negotiating interest to telegraph either to agents or his fellow GMs that he still has money to burn, entirely possible that was being deliberately coy here. I suspect we won't know for sure until the music stops and every remaining free agent scrambles to find a chair.

I agree with Four Seamer in that anything is possible but signing Okamoto makes either Bo or Tucker a clunky fit. It still feels like they pivoted to Okamoto after determining that Bo and Tucker weren't options. Okamoto himself is a bit of a clunky fit but I think its an entirely sensible pivot. Mike's point is the key point of this offseason though - the SP was mediocre to poor last year (on the whole, with exceptions of course) and they correctly identified where they should focus their efforts.

I don't think standing pat with the offense would necessarily be a bad thing, but the lineup does feel one bat short. Of course if Okamoto is a 3B version of Seiya Suzuki, then the perspective changes a bit. A lot will hinge on what type of bat he is.

"pushed off roster" means being traded or released "losing playing time" means not playing everyday. Very different. Mike is right that team is significantly better than last year as is. The rotation opening the year was Gausman, Berrios, Bassit, Scherzer, Francis. This year, it is Gausman, Cease, Bieber, Yesavage, and Ponce with Berrios and Lauer as depth. Bullpen is also way better than at beginning of last year with Rogers and Varland replacing Green and not sure who else. Overall Jays have improved. Add Bo or Tucker and it becomes a huge improvement.

but both someone good will be pushed off the roster and others will lose playing time too, so both are true.

the relevant point being that Ross was hinting towards maybe not signing anyone else.

which could easily be just a negotiating tactic, but still i think we should consider what he says.

and obviously yes the pitching is improved, but i'm not gonna lie i'd be pretty dissappointed if we end up taking a hit to our position players at the same time.

I'm optimistic about 2026 and I like what the front office has done this off-season.

That said, it seems reasonable to expect some significant regression from Springer this year. He was worth 5.2 fWAR in 2025. The projections have him down for around 2.0-2.9 fWAR in 2026. If that is what he ends up producing, the team is going to have to make up that production somewhere.

I think they should acquire another strong bat.

Clement is currently the starting everyday 2B (or SS, if they want to keep Gimenez at 2B).

Even if the Jays bring back Bo (and they should), Clement will start vs. lefties and provide injury/rest coverage to 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and DH, so he would get plenty of playing time as the 10th man.

In his final year in Japan, Seiya Suzuki's OPS was .201 higher than Okamoto's; he was significantly better. Suzuki hit only .262/.336/.433 in his first year as a Cub (but has been much better since). It's probably a tad premature to just pencil in Okamoto as a highly productive, everyday player for 2026, one who starts over Clement.

Over their last 2yrs in Japan, these are their approximate wRC+:

Yoshida (27-28): 963pa, 199wrc+
Okamoto (28-29): 904pa, 177wrc+
Suzuki (25-26): 1047pa, 177wrc+
Murakami (24-25): 834pa, 171wrc+


Yoshida may have made people overly pessimistic. It's weird that neither his walk rate or his power translated at all to MLB.

The Phillies have signed Tucker.



Tucker Davidson, that is.



Yes, it’s been a slow off-season.

Mitch Bannon (Jays beat writer for the Athletic) just put out an article saying the Jays have increased their efforts on Tucker, and that barring a short-term prove-it deal like the ones Boras clients typically sign (multiple years with an opt out) that "a reunion with Bichette appears increasingly unlikely". Rosenthal FWIW also said he doesn't think Bichette is coming back.

If the plan is Tucker, then I'm curious what the follow up moves are.

Tucker just makes more sense than Bo in a cold hearted raw number game. Bo is a 3-4 WAR player, Tucker a 4-5 WAR guy. Bo's replacing Clement (2-3 WAR player). Tucker replaces a combo of Lukes (1-2), Schneider (1-2), Barger (1.5-3 depending on assumptions), and Straw (1-2). Basically Tucker adds 2-3 WAR or more vs who'd play otherwise, Bo adds 1-2 and could be adding 0 (best Clement vs weak Bo). Plus, of course, the massive unknown with Bo and his health going forward hurts too (will he be able to run at all?) mixed in with his moving to 2B (will he be better at 2B than SS, or is it just shifting the problem and full-time DH duty coming soon).

@JimDuquetteGM
A League source has told me that the Mets, the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays are the most aggressive suitors for Kyle Tucker. Nothing appears to be imminent, but there is some distance between the other team reportedly interested and the main three,
8:04 PM · Jan 6, 2026

Ugh, so the Jays vs the 2 teams that beat them out the past 2 years for the top player on the market. Deja Vu.

Btw, I just gave in and signed up for a year of Baseball Prospectus after dropping The Athletic (I refuse to give money to an entity which is anti-trans for an assortment of reasons). Debated BP vs Baseball America but decided I liked the stats from BP better. Downloading said stats is painful though. They have their own version of WAR called WARP with Springer #1 for the Jays in '25 at 4.7, Vlad 4.3, Kirk 3.8, everyone else sub 3 (2's for Bo, Barger, 1's for Clement, Varsho, Schneider & Straw, everyone else sub 1). For hitting they use DRC+ (Deserved Runs Created Plus) - roughly like OPS+ and wRC+ with Bo at 117 last year vs 113 lifetime, -3 for defense last year, 2022 being his worst defensive year at -3.6 runs.

Once I get a chance to download the raw numbers and merge them with FG data I'll be able to compare WARP to fWAR and DRC+ to wRC+ a lot easier. Have yet to find a way to download BR raw data in a way that makes sense for merging (FG & BP use MLBID which makes merging data a lot easier).

I'd be pretty happy with Yoshida's .282/.337/.425 MLB line if we got that from Okamoto with average D at 3B.

That being said, there's some obfuscation going on when you use only their last 2 years in Japan. Perhaps Okamoto took a huge step forward and became a different hitter at 27, but it's hard for me to just ignore the massive gap in performance between him and Suzuki over their younger years.

It is always a challenge with translating stats from Japan to MLB. He did hit 333/556/722 in the WBC in 2023. Just wish some site would list WBC and other international competitions stats for players. Could've sworn I saw them somewhere but I checked BR and TBC with no luck. MLB.com has the WBC stats but not on player pages which is a pain.

I cancelled my subscription years ago for different reasons - what are you referring to? Is it a specific editorial stance or something related to the parent company? I am out of the loop

I think we have to consider Okamoto's plate discipline as "divine," if we want to see how this FO views him.

The other big component, looking at the signing through the FO lens is that they are bringing one of the biggest and most popular stars from NPB to Toronto which helps the business side.

There hasn’t been a sufficient number of Japanese hitters making the transition to MLB to have a sample size to draw any real translations. As I said the other day, the history of hitters coming over is really really varied. The most sensible explanation that I’ve heard for that is that MLB is really a different hitting environment due to the significant difference in average velocity that hitters see in MLB. Scouting to analyze how a Japanese hitter handles velocity seems to be part of the story to distinguish between success and failure. I’d also more than take the outcome that 92-93 suggests.

The Yomiuri Giants are apparently considered the Yankees of Japan, and had never posted a player to MLB before. The business aspect of this probably played some part. I doubt they give $60M to a player just for marketing purposes, so they obviously liked him as a player as well, but if they wanted to create a footprint in Japan, then this is one of the best ways they could have realistically done it.

I think Yoshida's bat (career 109 wRC+) with average or better 3B defense is a fine player. Not a star, but valuable. Steamer projects Okamoto to be a 113 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR player next season. I think the Jays would take that.

Cubs closing in on Edward Cabrera deal which may have Owen Caissie in the package.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com

Nice for the Cubs. Cabrera looked really good last year but has yet to crack 140 IP in a season, over 5 ML seasons last year was his first with under 4 BB/9 IP (3.1), and has an even 10.0 K/9 lifetime. Very nice pitcher, but I wouldn't be excited if the Jays got him as he'd probably have trouble cracking the current rotation - although 3 years of control is nice. Yeah, the Jays rotation improved a lot this winter.

In the long term good news for the Jays category - The Yankees decided to cut all international signing agreements which basically means any player they had committed to is now hunting for a team to sign with. A smart move now would be for the Jays to get some extra IFA cap space from whoever they can (maybe trade Lukes for some) and sign a few of those players. Also to check with guys the NYY have agreements with for 2027 and 2028 and if they are quality, see if they can set up deals in advance there too.

With the CBA being up for negotiation this year/next winter odds are this is the last IFA setup without a draft in place - safe to say owners will push for it and that players might give in to get other concessions. The Jays need to take full advantage for the 2030 and beyond teams to be in as good shape as possible.

Also of note: January 9th at 1 PM is the deadline for teams and players to submit arbitration figures. The Jays rule is sign before that to get a negotiated 1 year deal, or they'll only sign you on multi-year deals. Varsho is a big one here. Lauer will probably try to settle a deal pre-arb, as will Clement & Heineman. None are projected for $10+ mil in 2026, but Varsho, if he signs long term, will demand more I'd think.

New BA Top 30

1. Trey Yesavage RHP
2. Arjun Nimmala SS
3. JoJo Parker SS
4. Johnny King LHP
5. Gage Stanifer RHP
6. Ricky Tiedemann LHP
7. Juan Sanchez SS
8. RJ Schreck OF
9. Jake Bloss RHP
10. Jake Cook OF
11. Yohendrick Pinango OF
12. Silvano Hechavarria RHP
13. Victor Arias OF
14. Blaine Bullard OF
15. Tim Piasentin 3B
16. Angel Bastardo RHP
17. Josh Kasevich SS
18. Fernando Perez RHP
19. Micah Bucknam RHP
20. Sean Keys 1B/3B
21. Jake Casey OF
22. Spencer Miles RHP
23. Ryan Jennings RHP
24. Charles McAdoo 3B
25. Adam Macko LHP
26. Brandon Barriera LHP
27. Carson Messina RHP
28. Brandon Valenzuela C
29. Javen Coleman LHP
30. Edward Duran C

John, what makes you say the Athletic is anti-trans?

Very genuine question.

I have found problems with some of their coverage on trans issues, but there are a number of writers there who are not anti-trans.

As an example, the recent article on Britta Curl was a puff piece that did not meaningfully interrogate her about her anti-trans comments and let her "explanations" go unchallenged. That piece was quite objectionable to me.

However, a number of their women's soccer writers have written against the exclusion of trans women from soccer ina more comprehensive and critical way than most other mainstream media sites, which are particularly bad these days (cough*New York Times*cough)

My apologies for the sidetrack, but Im quite curious if I have missed some examples of anti-trans coverage and I should reconsider my perspective on the site.

Is that the deepest top 10 the Jays have had in 10 years? 15 Years? 20?

I have no proof, and nothing to go on other than my gut and cynicism, but.. Even if the Yankees are upset with their IFA scouting, why cancel deals for future years? Don't you have tons of time for a new scouting group to re-evaluate 2030 deals? They don't seem ineptly run, in general..

Is it possible, being near MLB HQ, they might know something we don't know? I.e. a draft is coming and all future agreements past this year will be null and void anyway, so they're just distracting other teams with trying to get offers in to the newly-available IFAs that will never happen anyway?

Or possibly they have connections with the current regime and knew/know about the new "$15K to APPLY for a US visa and will be heavily scrutinized" restriction for Venezuelan citizens and maybe also coming for Cubans and Mexicans (largest IFA sources) and figured it just wouldn't be effective to continue?

For the Yankees it seems their old scouting director was fired in October and they feel his choices were poor for the IFA market. Thus they dumped all his choices. Now, he might have made poor choices, but odds are there are some gems in there so given those kids will be desperate now (limited market if the Yankees are out) it might be a good time to jump in and steal a few. Especially if the Jays are losing $1 mil from their cap in the future thanks to the luxury tax penalties and signing free agents. If a draft is coming or other changes then taking full advantage this year becomes critical.

Now, if the change is reducing how many non-US citizens you can have in the system (would be really dumb, but new rules from Trump could do that) then that would be a big factor going forward. Also could result in more teams in Canada to stash players in from the Caribbean.

Don't forget that Steinbrenner took a lot of flack recently for stating that the NYY are barely turning a profit.

It isn't the Athletic that I had issues with, but their owners are the NY Times which is strongly anti-trans (fired all their trans reporters for example). Not going to go into detail but since a couple of people asked I thought I'd make it clear where the problem was. I was more saying why I dropped them, their articles were good but I enjoy BP and was debating BA. Depending on finances I might add BA at some point. I just enjoy reading about baseball too much. Should really rejoin SABR someday.

“Kyle Tucker, George Springer spotted together at TGL match” — Sportsnet article today

We’re starting to edge into Ohtani-on-a-plane level of obsessiveness (and yes I admit to being one of the obsessed fans).

Agreed greenfrog. Of course it does keep the off season interesting. Same with the who was at Bo's wedding and who wasn't (no sign of Vlad, but a few Jays were there).

I hadn't heard about the NYT/trans issues, but have now found a number of stories over the last couple of years. fwiw, NYT wrote a rebuttal/defence on this issue a couple of days ago. https://www.nytco.com/press/fact-checking-false-claims-about-our-gender-identity-coverage/

Wasn't intending to get anything going on the NYT anti-trans stances as this really isn't the place. But since a couple asked here are 2 final quick articles from TransNews, and from Them - both covering stuff that the NYT claims is irrelevant or lies. YMMV, but I'm very strongly pro-trans rights thus will not support any media outlet that gives pure crap like the Cass report air. So that is why I stopped providing the Athletic any money. There are others I prefer to give my cash to.

Back to baseball. Remove emotion from it and Tucker makes sense, with emotion Bo makes the most sense. I fear Bo is going to be the new Nomar Garciaparra (great up to age 29, then fell off a cliff, from 30-35 he had 1 year of 2+ WAR, total of 3.0 WAR, after 2 6+ WAR years). Boston traded him in the nick of time and won a WS the year they got rid of him.

Avoided Arby (1yr deals):


Varsho $10.75
Ernie $4.6
Heineman $1.2375


Lauer the one still left.

Thx for posting this John.

Cot's Estimates vs actual...
Varsho: $11,750,000 vs $10,750,000
Clement: $4,550,000 vs $4,600,000
Lauer: $4,000,000 vs unknown
Heineman: $1,450,000 vs $1,237,500

FanGraphs already adjusted to actual, but their estimate for Lauer is $4.4 mil.

So outside of Lauer the estimates totaled: $17.75 mil, actual: $16.5875 mil. So not bad. Jays save about $1.2 mil vs expected (Cot's). Not a massive amount, but might help a touch. IIRC FG had Varsho at just shy of $10 mil so vs them it might be a touch worse.

So finish Lauer and get either Tucker or Bo signed and the offseason is pretty much done outside of trying to find a new home for Berrios.

Jon Heyman is apparently reporting that Bichette is asking for $300 million.

Come on down, Kyle Tucker.

If it were so inclined, a team could probably do a $300m contract with deferred money, net present value of around $225m or $250m.

Also, what is Tucker asking for? $400m? $450m? More than that? I’m a bit surprised his ask hasn’t been leaked by someone.

With Vlad getting 500,000,000 I think Tucker would try to get as close to that as possible, so let's say 450,000 (what he would aim for not what he is worth).

That's 450,000,000 over 14 years which would amount to 32,142,857 per year. We know he won't get that.

Since he is starting his age 29 season this year vs Vlad who is starting his contract at 27... lets take off 2 years from the deal. That would mean Tucker getting $385,714,285 over 12 years in a best case scenario which is a) someone going to 12 years which is highly unlikely and b) someone agreeing Vlad is only $3,571,285/year better than Tucker.

Anyways I think if I were Tucker I would sign a deal if I am offered 35/year for 10 years. That's my floor because I can probably get 45/year for 6 years which is 270,000,000 and then re-enter the market at age 35 to try to make up the other 80 million to get to 350,000,000.

Then you factor in the possible work stoppage... I sense that he wants 350 - 400 million but he is being offered 300-350 million on long term deal or closer to 200 million on short term deal.

Dombrowski is looking to take advantage of the market and overpay the cheaper player (Bichette) and pad his GM career stats while the next guy cleans up the mess.

A while back I predicted $400m or a bit more for Tucker. We'll see where he ends up. I hope the Blue Jays make it happen and he comes to Toronto.

Greenfrog I think that's what it's going to take. Blue Jays to go over 400,000,000 and nobody else offering more.

Is Bo looking for 30M/year for 10 years to hit 300M? That seems very aggressive.

I could see 30M/year for a shorter contract (say 3 years 90M total), but the highest consensus estimate was something like 8/210 and several people were suggesting less significantly less.

If you were the team and could sign Bo for one of the following term, amounts, which would you think is best?

1 year/ 35M total
3 year/ 90M total
5 year/ 125M total
8 year/ 160M total
12 year/ 210M total

I guess if Bo wants 300M he'd do none of these, although a short term high $ amount might be the way to get the higher money if there are questions about his health and defense at 2b (assuming he indeed is healthy and good enough at 2B in that short term deal). I mean a 2-3 year deal would still have him hitting FA at a time that many players ink their big FA deal.

5 year/ 125M total

That would mean he makes less that what Adames made over 7 last year.

Tucker has no other realistic long term options. I really don’t think it will end up anywhere near $400M if he signs with the Jays. Possibly $300M but not much higher unless it’s heavily deferred. If Bo’s ask is anywhere near $300M, then Tucker is a no brainer. The appeal of Bo is a much lower financial ask. If that’s not the case, then go for the better player with the higher ceiling and worry about the roster construction afterwards.

SK it's all relative. When you say 300 million is that over 10 years? Is it over 7 years? There's a big difference that will determine if 300 million is an overpay or underpay or just right.

If anyone is crazy enough to give Bo $300 mil over any term then he should take it. I just can't shake the feeling (due to his speed vanishing and defense going bye-bye) that he will not have more than 3-5 years of solid play ahead of him. It'd be nice to be wrong, but he screams Nomar Garciaparra to me. Garciaparra was a MVP candidate from 23-29 with 6 years of 6+ bWAR, having 190+ hits in all but 1 of those 7 years. At age 27 he missed most of the year due to injury, but came back at 28 seemingly A-OK and at 29 stole 19 bases to go along with a 121 OPS+. Part way through his age 30 season Boston traded him and went on to win the World Series. He never again had a 3 WAR season, peak was a 2.5 which was his only year of 2+ WAR. So yeah, that is my fear with Bo.

A bit surprised. Lauer filed $5.75 million, Blue Jays filed at $4.4 million. Cot's estimated Lauer at $4 mil, FG at $4.4 mil. Don't see how he is likely to win with a figure that high above estimates, but hey, guess you can't blame a guy for trying.

Lauer is an unusual arb case though as he was already paid $5.075 in arbitration period (although it was a negotiated salary avoiding arbitration) in 2023 with 4 years of service time. But though his 2021 and 2022 were strong, his 2023 was awful and he ended up released in 2024 and only played in minors then Korea before coming to the Jays and pitching in 2025 similar to his 2021, 2022 numbers.

So if that was worth more then $5M after 2022, you can see why he might think this should be his best paid year. On the other hand, given he didn't play in the majors in 2024 and only signed a minor league contract originally with the Jays in 2025, you can see saying that he isn't necessarily worth that.

Hiya. Thanks to John (and Joe) for helping me get reset. I've been lurking all along but was a bit too lazy to reach out for log-in help. But I miss the old forum format and as much as I try to mingle in Facebook fan groups all of them are plagued with a proportion of...let's say "poorly informed" members (the sort of poster who might propose a trade of draft picks, for example, or a buyout of a contract)

So, I needed a better outlet for my unsolicited opinions.

For starters - Bo ain't getting $300 anywhere. I think that (as has been regularly observed here) that too many teams see what we see about batting styles like his tending to age poorly in the early 30's - and you don't get to 300 without 10 or more years. If the Phillies (or whomever) offered him 30 or more AAV for 5 years he should be all over that. The total value would disappoint him but he's getting more up-front while the team hedges against age. But it feels like a February signing now.

Tucker? I may be the only one who thought all the initial projections were way high. I'd read that he's keen to not have to do this again so has a strong interest in the long term, and I can easily see a 9-10 year deal in his case. But it feels more like a Lindor type of value. So if I were to guess what seems like fair value it's more in that 10/340 range, and maybe a bit less if the competition cools. I just don't get where the 400mm and up estimates come from. And I should clarify, I don't think he'll be a 30-something million annual value in his late thirties but as with Vlad, those last 2-3 years you just accept as the cost of getting the first 7 or so.

Plus, I'm a believer in the positive effect of baseball inflation - 34 million is not so much a burden in 2035 as it would be in 2025. Plus - he might be down for deferrals.

At some future point I'll have a probably annoying amount to say about trying to trade Santander if they sign Tucker - not because I think he's incapable of contributing but because he's not getting paid to come off the bench and I'm pretty invested in Barger getting a lot of run.

Phew, 8 years between comments. Don't think I could do that - hard enough to last 8 minutes sometimes :)

Anyone going past 5 years for Bo is going to regret it I'm certain. Sad as a few years ago I'd have thought he was the better bet for a long term vs Vlad thanks to being able to go down the defensive spectrum as he aged, but with his speed gone and maybe more issues to come...

In other FA news - Bellinger seems to have been offered $30 mil per from the Yankees but they cannot agree on years with the Yankees wanting a 5 year deal and Bellinger wanting a 7+ year deal. I suspect they'll match up at some point and settle it. No damn way would I want the Jays in on Bellinger for 5+ years at $30 mil per. I see him as a bigger risk than Bo.

Tucker I agree should be in the $300-$350 range for 10+ years (last few to reduce the AAV and tax hit). I figure he felt he deserved Vlad money as he has a similar wRC+ (138 vs 137) and can play OF vs 1B. But Vlad has the 'career Blue Jay' tag as 'the Franchise' thus that got him probably $100 mil more than he should've gotten. Timing and where you play can be big. Looking at that career wRC+ makes me want Tucker more though. Hopefully the Jays pull it off as Tucker batting 2nd would be sweet.

If Tucker is signed then we have one heck of an OF logjam to deal with - Barger-Santander-Lukes-Schneider-Straw-Loperfido-Clase-Schreck for one full time slot and maybe 2 backup slots is a lot of guys and limited playing time. Straw I see as a lock to stick around (CF backup, high end defense, expensive contract for a guy who can't hit). Wouldn't be surprised to see most of the rest being traded so Barger can play, or trading Barger to get something good and living with Santander out there. Good problem to have.

"Anyone going past 5 years for Bo is going to regret it I'm certain"

Feels like almost any premium contract can be assumed to carry with it 1-3 years on the back end that you'd rather not have. I figure any interested team is willing to gamble on his age 32 season being at least above average if not at al worth 30 million. But I wonder if he'll find anyone willing to push their luck beyond that.

Really, really slow market. Of Athletic's top-9 FA, only 3 have signed. Feels like everyone is just waiting for first domino to fall. It feels like a trade with the Tigers might make sense for a few reasons. If Jays want another middle infielder, Tigers have a bunch and with McGoniggle coming up shortly and guys like Lee, Anderson, and Workman all pretty close to be ready, they might want to clear out some guys. Also, they are a good candidate (as good as any) to need someone like Berrios to give them some guaranteed innings.

My disappointment is that we clearly missed any window we had to get Bo signed to any kind of discount deal by obviously never pushing hard to extend him or even tamp down constant trade rumours at any point.

I said months ago I would be more than happy with a 10yr/$250m deal for Bo. He's the youngest free agent you'll ever see so the projections for his early demise will always seem strange to me.

Mike that's some good info. One thing to consider though is that Seager is a LHH which adds value in a world full of RHH middle order players. Ohtani, Soto, Tucker and Seager all add more value by hitting from the left side.

UO, fairly or not, maybe people are seeing Bo as sort of an “old player” despite his chronological age, due to his swift decline in foot speed and base-stealing ability, along with his accumulation of injuries over the last couple of years.

The other thing to remember with Seager is he was stealing a lot of bases before he signed the contract (I think).

Bo's never even had a major surgery.

uo- "missing a window" assumes many things that may or may not be true. The most relevant of which - was Bo ever inclined to do anything other than go to free agency (which is not saying that he never had any interest in resigning)?

I am in the camp that Bo's hitting is more likely to age well than many others (including Tucker). Whether his hitting alone is sufficient to justify the salary demands is a fair point to debate.

Ugly, Bo's never had a major surgery but he did have 2024 counting stats which none of the other players have experienced where you all of a sudden forget how to hit and are below replacement value.

WAR by year:

2025 3.5
2024 -0.3
2023 4.8
2022 3.7
2021 5.1

You're assuming teams are not signing him to a big deal based on future decline but it's entirely possible teams look at Bo as a player who had one very good season in 2021 and then from 2022-2025 he averaged a ceiling of 4 WAR which is a big drop from 5 WAR and that's if you are excluding his 2024 performance.

In addition to that I can see teams saying "his 2021 and 2023 years were aided by better defense and baserunning which he appears to have now lost." In this case Bo would effectively have a ceiling of about 3.5 WAR moving forward without further decline.

That's a more plausible scenario for his lack of a market rather than the narrative that he's going to decline from being a great player faster than other peers. He already has decline.

For the record I throw WAR out the window as offense is undervalued in this league. I would resign Bo no questions asked.

Furthermore, you'd have to squint and tell yourself that Bo would be healthy for 150+ games each year and improve his defensive and baserunning numbers in order to see him as a 4-5WAR player moving forward. That's the issue with teams and how they are viewing him.

Ketel Marte off the market. Now hopefully Bregman or Bo can be signed by any teams that were looking to add Marte.

dalimon that is one of the most consistent track records you will ever see. only one half season of outlier bad performance by age 27.

Nigel - i don't think there's any clearcut answer as to how extremely he was leaning towards testing free agency at any specific point in the last bunch of years. But i think there was obviously plenty that could have been done over the years to made the idea of re-signing instead of seeking absolute top dollar on the market more attractive to him.

Michael, I would go with 8/160 in your hypothetical. Once you're willing to go 5/125, dalimon5, it's a no-brainer to take a risk on Bichette's age 33-35 seasons for 3/35. I wouldn't, however, tack on 4/50 for his age 36-39 seasons.

If only the Jays could get Bo at anywhere close to those numbers.

Through their age-27 seasons:

Bichette 121 OPS+
Jeter 122 OPS+

And Jeter didn't have an injury-riddled season in there dragging him down. Through their first 748 games:

579R 75HR 400RBI 21.6 fWAR
438R 111HR 437RBI 20.0 fWAR

It is possible the Jays could have done more to secure an extension with Bichette before he reached free agency. Still, it is also possible that this was a foregone conclusion once the pre-arbitration issues between the club and Bichette surfaced years ago.

That's definitely not a consistent track record for a player wanting 300,000,000 dollars.

"He's the youngest free agent you'll ever see so the projections for his early demise will always seem strange to me."

We just saw Juan Soto last year at a younger age, but I understand and agree with your point that a premium twenty-something core player should have already been signed. I just don't think the Blue Jays were given the chance to resign him for anything less than a fortune and it's unfair to assume that he's a free agent because the FO couldn't understand that he was a great player in his 20s. That just presumes that Bo didn't understand he could likely get more money if he went to free agency....

Anyways we will find out who made the right choice soon. If Bo signs for less than 300 million then Jays probably made the right choice not to offer some deal like that 3 years ago. If Bo signs somewhere else for ANY amount and the Jays get Tucker then it was the right choice that the FO made not to resign Bo. If at any point Bo leaves and the Jays do not replace with a middle of the order bat then it's a loss for the team, a major loss.

Jeter had 32 SB and positive defensive numbers at SS in his age-28 season.

He wasn’t a probable second baseman with 10-20th percentile speed coming off a significant knee injury.

And for the record, I love Bo’s present hitting ability.

So basically everyone loves Bo and would want him back. Some would prefer Tucker if given the choice. Only a few view Bo as an elite core player worth a mega contract and willing to overlook some clear unsightly numbers to compare him to great players of the past.

We've got an interesting question - Bo vs Tucker. Mixed with Bo vs Clement - Tucker vs Barger vs Santander and if the Jays will eat Santander's contract to make it all work. Looking at projections from PECOTA for 2025 vs reality, sadly 2026 projections aren't available at the subscription level I'm at just yet.

• Bo pre-'25 had a PECOTA projection of 267/312/404 with a 2.3 WARP (real was 311/357/483 2.9). Clement 269/309/389 with a 1.4 WARP vs 277/313/398 1.8 in reality. Both outperformed expectations, but by less than I expected (felt like more).
• Tucker pre-'25 had a PECOTA projection of 268/362/493 5.2 WARP vs real 266/377/464 3.6 - a touch lower on power, but better in OBP but the killer was a -5 runs on defense, worst of his career. Barger projected 226/298/372 0.2 vs 243/301/454 2.1 - a lot better than expected (close to his 99th percentile projection in all but OBP)

What does that mean? Basically that Bo did as good as could be hoped but still was a sub 3 WARP player. Tucker did worse than expected but was still a 3.6 WARP player. That suggests Tucker's potential is higher by a lot than Bo's. Barger outperformed by a LOT which implies regression should happen in 2026, the question is how much. I'd put odds of Barger moving up to 3+ WARP as low, normally the league digs in when a guy jumps like he did thus making him adjust. If he improves in '26 we have a potential superstar on our hands. Clement was in eyeshot of Bo (1.8 vs 2.9) and given Bo's injury issues I wouldn't be shocked if Clement out WARPs Bo in '26 and beyond. Bo will outhit him, but fielding wise Clement laps the field with Bo and it'll probably just expand further in '26 and beyond.

Tucker realistically could be a 4+ WARP guy in '26, I don't see Bo doing that. Clement could be a 2, Barger slightly better odds of being a 2 but I'd be shocked if either was a 3. Perfect world, sign both. Real world, we should be super-happy if the Jays sign either. I want Tucker more, then figure out how to deal with Barger/Santander/Springer sharing 2 slots (plus Lukes/Schneider/Straw/Loperfido/etc.). So I see 1 more win of value having Tucker vs Bo and that logjam can be solved with a few trades - perhaps just for IFA cap space as with the Yankees pulling out this year there will be a few quality guys begging for a deal with lord knows what the rules will be in '27 and beyond - need to take advantage now if they can so we have a more competitive team in 5+ years.

Also of note: us older Jay fans remember the 80's teams with so much young talent. Bell/Moseby/Barfield all 25 in '85, all 3 seen as top 3 at their position, all done by 33 (33/31/32 ages in their final ML season respectively). Other key members - Willie Upshaw done at 31, Damaso Garcia done at 32, Manny Lee done at 30 (was everyday SS in '92, first up in '85), Kelly Gruber done at 31, Fernandez the exception played to 39 but I have serious questions about PED use for him (my favorite player, but that massive late career surge, then needing to go to Japan to play after an All-Star season at 37 makes me question him big time). Whitt was the biggest oddity - first time as a semi-regular at 28, peak at 31, played to 39 and still coaching today (Team Canada).

John. I'm shocked at that Fernandez speculation. I don't think there's any evidence to support your suspicion.

Jeter's defense was worse than Bichette's in their age 25-27 seasons, but yes, he was faster.

The 10/189 that Jeter got in 2001 is around 300MM today, and probably over 400MM using baseball's inflation.

Re: trading Santander.

If this season was in isolation, sure - but we have next season as well (assuming no strike, etc). Springer may regress this year (likely), and will be gone next year - then we need a DH. I feel like Santander was signed based on George's 2024, and if he had continued to regress and Santander hadn't gotten hurt, we would be waiting for the Springer DFA...

As of right now, I don't see a DH replacement candidate on the roster.. And if Varsho leaves...

lexomatic - really? It was the late 90's, Fernandez' career was nearing an end and suddenly in 1998, playing with Clemens & Canseco, his OPS+ goes to a career high 121 at age 36, just to be beaten the next year by a 125 OPS+ and an All-Star game appearance. By May of 1998 he had a 261/347/399 line, then went on fire and hit 348/406/486 the rest of the way, then in 1999 he was hitting 400 on June 28th. The mix of career highs with who else was on the club and it is hard not to speculate. Guys don't suddenly become 'WOW' hitters at 36 after being in decline for years. His only 110+ OPS+ other than those 2 years was in 1987 at the age of 25. All the factors scream 'PED' to me. 1998 was the year the Jays had that trainer McNamee who injected Clemens with steroids that year, odds are low that Clemens was the only aging player to get those shots.

As a long time Jay fan I'd prefer not to think some of my favorites did PEDs but realistically anyone who played in 1998 on the team has to be a suspect. There was no testing, McGwire was being celebrated when it was painfully obvious he was juicing. IMO any player who didn't back then was being a bit foolish - mega dollars were sitting there to be had if you did it, with a lock for the HOF seemingly there too. For a guy like Fernandez whose career was nearing its end not to try anything to keep going would be unusual, imo.

Jeter also had significantly better career BB and K rates than Bichette. That no doubt contributed to his ability to remain a valuable player throughout his 30s.

And, of course, he was a shortstop. Bichette is likely soon going to be a second baseman, and he could conceivably end up a DH in his 30s.

My take is that if Springer is above average this year, say 120ish, that they will re-sign him to a sort of "year at a time" contract (like, one year plus an option or something.

If he's playable, he's also as much part of the heart of the team as Vlad - I do think either he or the team want him to go elsewhere as long as he can contribute.

IF Santander goes away AND Springer leaves or becomes unplayable THEN they can sort out who the next DH will be then.

I mean, ultimately if they want to carry him for a season as a part-time player and depth option, I don't really care - it's just the kind of thing I don't think is often done.

As to Santander - he is a tough situation if Tucker is signed. One wants to play Barger everyday if possible, in a platoon at the very least. Santander lifetime has no real split vs LH/vs RH so he isn't a natural platoon guy. His peak for OPS+ is 131 the year before he came here, his peak for bWAR is 3.0 from 2023. He isn't a superstar by any stretch. He is basically a guy who hits a lot of dingers. Pre-'25 that seemed to be a need. In 2024 all 3 OF had an OPS+ sub 100 with the only OF who hit well being Lukes at 131 OPS+ in 22 games (as a career minor leaguer who had a call up at 29 and did well, but we all know those stories tend to end poorly). The Jays were desperate for some kind of bat for the OF. Springer looked done at 34, our DH was Justin Turner who was traded away, Schneider flopped in his 2nd season (77 OPS+), Barger didn't look good (68 OPS+ in 225 PA), Loperfido worse (62 OPS+ in 144 PA). So it made perfect sense to sign Santander under those conditions. A year later and things are drastically different. Varsho came to life (122 OPS+ in an injury year), Schneider found his bat (119 OPS+), Barger had a breakthrough (105 OPS+ and a 1.025 OPS in the playoffs), Lukes was decent (100 OPS+), Springer found the fountain of youth (161 OPS+), Loperfido was blessed by the BABIP gods (140 OPS+), heck, even Miles Straw hit half decently (87 OPS+ is OK with his WOW defense). Meanwhile Santander fell apart with a 57 OPS+ in 221 PA with his OPS peaking April 16th at 653 (ick). His 450 OPS in the playoffs didn't help either. If Santander was a FA this winter and was coming off his 2024 season the Jays would probably have just ignored him like they ignored pure power guy Eugenio Suárez this winter.

In the end, the Jays have Santander under contract for 4 more years and need to live with it. To trade him you'd need to eat at least half his contract and I don't see that happening realistically. If Tucker is signed I could see Barger at 3B a lot, in RF a lot, Santander sitting a lot to allow it. Okamoto will play most of the time, so the 2 of them (Barger & Okamoto) will make it so Santander sits a lot (mixed with Springer or Tucker or Vlad getting days off). That is a group of 6 guys for 5 positions meaning roughly 135 games started each - Vlad will start more as would Tucker, but I could see the rest being lower depending on how well each plays.

stray thought: if I sign Tucker he's my regular LF whenever Barger is in right. Might boost his defensive performance a bit (I'm not smart enough to know how much of an outfielder's defensive rating has to do with throwing or any other since in which left is easier than right)

It would be fascinating to know what Tucker even wants at this point. Does he have a preferred destination? Or is it all about the money and who will tack on another $25m or $50m to their offer? The MLB offseason can be such a tedious slog for fans. And this has actually been a comparatively exciting offseason for Blue Jays fans.

Dasan Brown signed with Brewers. Great defender, great speed, just no hit tool. I wish him well. CF definitely as weak spot in the organization as of now. (couple of draftees from last year can play CF).

Comparatively?
What teams have done better this offseason?

Varsho and Straw.
AAA, Clase/Loperfido/Schrek/Bohrofen have played CF.
AA, Arias
A, Jake Cook
Rk, Andreas Arias
 
After a couple years, it was quite evident that Brown wouldn't make it. 
Third round picks haven't done much since Adam Lind in 2004.
AA: Jake Marisnick, Jake Barrett, Marcus Knecht, John Stilson, Anthony Alford, Patrick Murphy, Nick Wells, Justin Maese.
Early years of current front office: Zack Jackson, Riley Adams, Kloff, Brown, Trent Palmer
Last 5 years: Tiedemann, Roden, Watts-Brown, Johnny King, Jake Cook 

Jeter was a shortstop in deployment only. As 92-93 already alluded to, in Jeter’s 2000-1 seasons he lapped the SS field in negative defense value and the odd positive season notwithstanding, for his career was consistently one of the worst defensive SS in MLB.

Per Jeff Sullivan on Fangraphs (a decade ago):

I get that Derek Jeter is polarizing, and I get that it’s fun to criticize a player the media’s never stopped putting on a pedestal. It’s certainly worthwhile to note Jeter hasn’t been a great defensive shortstop. While he’ll have absolutely zero trouble getting into the Hall of Fame, defense still is important when it comes to our understanding of what he’s been as a player. Jeter has had his on-field shortcomings. But it’s also important to not get carried away. For his position, Jeter’s been one of the game’s worse defensive players. His position has included some of the very best defensive players in baseball. In terms of overall value, those about negate one another. In the end, the most correct opinion of Jeter’s defensive ability is, `Hey, he’s been all right.’

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-other-half-of-the-story-about-derek-jeters-defense/

Exactly how I felt about Bichette’s defense last year.

And, for what it’s worth, I thought the SN broadcast grossly overrated Gimenez’ SS D all playoffs. There were numerous difficult plays that he just missed, and I can’t really think of a single exceptional play that he made. He was rock solid and made all the routine ones, but I didn’t see an excellent defensive SS that was leaps and bounds better than Bichette. Perhaps we’ll see it over a larger body of work this season, but I can picture a scenario where the Jays decide they are better off with Clement6 Gimenez4 than Gimenez6 Clement4.

I agree with all of that 92-93. By eye test it’s a challenge to compare Clement and Gimenez - Gimenez plays defense with more optical athleticism and flair than Clement. I’m not sure that that translates to actual results. For his career, Clement’s best defensive position has been 3B where he’s been somewhere between very good and elite. At 2B and SS Clement has been closer to good. Gimenez’s best numbers are at 2B.

If that is the assessment of Bichette’s defense at SS in a decade or so (i.e., after a two-decade career playing the position) then we can say that the two players were comparable defensively.

Gimenez has probably been the best defensive infielder in baseball over the last five years. He's elite every single year. Not sure what we're doing here. He didn't look quite as crisp at SS as he does at 2B but it's also a position he hasn't played since 2022 and even then it wasn't many innings. Full time at SS and I'm sure he'll be very good.

I think both Gimenez and Ernie are legit plus maybe plusplus at SS tbh.

I also think Bo will be above average at 2B.

I think Bo could be a solid second baseman for at least a couple of years. What concerns me is his injury history. Someone on Bluebird Banter recently compiled a list of all his injuries since he became a major leaguer. It’s a long list, mostly leg injuries of one sort or another, some involving a fairly long recovery period. His slow speed may be partly due to these injuries. As a young prospect/player baserunning was one of his strengths.

If he loses his quickness/agility, he’s probably not going to be a good middle infielder anymore. At that point his options would be 3B, LF or DH.

I much prefer watching the defensive side of the game than the offensive side. As such, I turn on the Jays games daily to watch Gimenez. Yup, I hope each day that a ball gets hit to him even if it's a routine grounder because he's a treat to watch collecting the baseball. Such fans exist.

Yankees and Bellinger apparently at an impasse. Bellinger wants like 7 years at 30+M a year. If this is true, it's insane and nobody should come close to it. It feels like players are waiting for one team to get desperate and overpay but not sure it will happen this year.

Bellinger is a career .261/.334/.483 (119 wRC+) hitter. Last year (per Savant) he was a 82nd percentile hitter, a 91st percentile fielder, and a 69th percentile baserunner. He's still only 30 and he's a LHB. He can play a corner outfield position well and fill in at CF or 1B if need be. That is a valuable player.

Seven years might be on the high side, but I don't blame Boras and Bellinger for using that as a starting point in negotiations. Presumably they would accept a contract in the 6/$180m range.

Alonso is a year older and a very poor baserunner and fielder. Schwarber is a couple of years older, a DH, and a well-below-average baserunner.

for non-subscribers (like me) one of the guys on the podcast at this link lists off the order of BP's updated Top 10 list beginning at 34:15

Also mentions that on a BA podcast Cooper and Pontes mentioned Nimmala among a group of players they could see being the #1 prospect a year from now.

https://bluejaysaggr.com/media/listen/blue-jays-offseason-check-in-bo-bichette-kyle-tucker-arbitration-deals/303914

Bregman to the Cubs for 5/175? That has to be spoof account? Nobody who was sober would do that.

$175M for a 32 year old Bregman is nice work by Boras.

I guess this puts Bo fully on Boston's radar now.

Another premium FA who got more money than many predicted. Fangraphs projected 4/$140m for Bregman. The Athletic predicted 6/$171m for him.

We’ll see where Tucker, Bo and Bellinger land.

Good to see the FA market moving.

The Okamoto contract is looking even better right now.

Sometimes the best deal is the one you don't make.

any of the Big 4 good hitters (and also the top 2 SP) that head to the NL (if they're not signing with the Jays) is a win for the Jays. Boston signs Bo and they still don't replace what Bregman gave them (only plus is getting younger) and this is going to firm up Bellinger's resolve.

That said, I'd suggest that this would be quite a comparable benchmark for Tucker to aspire to.

In terms of production, they are VERY comparable. Over the last 5 years Tucker has a SLIGHT edge in total fWAR and Bregman brings an excellent glove reputation as well as the "clubhouse leader" narrative.

In Tucker's favor is being three years younger. You'd have to assume then that 35x8 (280) is the absolute floor for Tucker and arguably you add one more year to get him over $300mm

One wonders if that satisfies (it would be the biggest deal of this off-season and get him into the top 15 deals overall.

From the Jays POV, if you could get him to accept significant deferrals (which would drop the present-day value and the AAV) that would be even better, but we can't know how much those status markers mean to him.

Still, I wax verbose - point is that 8/35 would HAVE to be the absolute floor and less than 300 is likely an unrealistic hope, so you ask yourself "had I rather give him a higher AAV for 8, or an extra year or two to soften the annual blow a bit?"

Right now Bo must be smiling ear to ear. The Bregman deal is what he now sees as a starting point. Everyone rated him higher, he is a lot younger and had a big WS moment despite being hurt. No way he signs for sub $200 now. The Phillies have a meeting Monday with Bo. That'll be a very interesting meeting I'm sure.

Tucker I'm thinking has his $400 over 11 locked in but will he be willing to do deferrals? Who knows right now. I'm really hoping Bellinger goes to the Mets. If the Jays get Tucker, Mets Bellinger, Phillies Bo I'll be very happy.

So Vlad's deal is looking better and better. His AAV will fall below Bregman, Tucker and possibly Bo, though his salary is front loaded.