I like the move. Okamoto seems to be a solid and versatile player in or close to his prime (29). He has some power and doesn’t strike out a lot, so he fits with the team’s current offensive MO. He’ll provide quality as a starter and/or depth at multiple positions (3B, 1B, DH, possibly corner OF). I assume the Blue Jays have scouted him a lot and have good intel on him.

Now the question is whether the team will add one more quality position player via free agency or trade. I would like to see one more very good player added.

The signing (if it works out for both sides) may also help the Blue Jays attract future Japanese stars — a not-insignificant ancillary benefit of the move.

I don't hate the move but i don't love it. He's an awkward fit on the team and this screams more of this FO's previous tendencies to go with war/$ value signings than it does of maximizing the roster.

Not sure he can play 3B well enough, but even if he can, it still leaves us in a situation where we really need both Gimenez and Clement to be legtimately productive and healthy all year to handle the middle IF slots. There's no real other options there.

It's cool, but to me this screams "Tucker and Bellinger are going elsewhere, so we grabbed the best left bat we could get".

he's a RHH!

Yoshida and Suzuki both had much better OPSs in NPB before coming over. Not sure if those need adjusting for division or other factors.

Seems like a decent signing.

Doh. My bad. I went a bit too fast and probably got various international players confused. Another RHH infielder? And an unknown one at that? Then maybe this is the "Bo isn't coming back" signal.

Potential Best Lineup using Steamer projections with Fangraphs' playing time estimates:

1. DH Springer (36, RH): 595pa, .342obp, 123wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero (27, RH): 679pa, .385obp, 153wrc+
3. C Alejandro (27, RH): 488pa, .354obp, 122wrc+
4. RF Barger (26, LH): 483pa, .319obp, 111wrc+
5. 3B Okamoto (30, RH): 560pa, .324obp, 110wrc+
6. LF Santander (31, SH): 567pa, .309obp, 106wrc+
7. CF Varsho (29, LH): 595pa, .294obp, 100wrc+
8. 2B Clement (30, RH): 644pa, .313obp, 100wrc+
9. SS Gimenez (27, LH): 595pa, .311obp, 95wrc+

B. PH Lukes (31, LH): 322pa, .338obp, 109wrc+
B. OF Straw (32, RH): 133pa, .296obp, 72wrc+
B. IF Schneider (27, RH): 294pa, .326obp, 105wrc+
B. C Heineman (35, SH): 154pa, .306obp, 82wrc+

X. PH Loperfido (27, LH): 28pa, .293obp, 85wrc+
X. OF Clase (23, SH): 14pa, .294obp, 82wrc+
X. IF Jimenez (25, RH): 77pa, .320obp, 95wrc+
X. C Valenzuela (25, RH): 13pa, .273obp, 66wrc+

Yep uglyone, dumb of me not to include that in the article above. So he can platoon as the lesser side at 3B with Barger, or be platooned in LF with Lukes or Loperfido. Or platooned with Santander even (some position shifting involved unless both are sharing LF).

Basically he could be a super-utility guy, used at 3B to spell Barger/Santander/Lukes/Schneider (corner OF day off, Barger goes to RF, or Barger gets day off at 3B). He could spell Vlad off (no need for another France), or give Springer a day off entirely from DH. Lots of options as he can play 3B/1B/LF. Mixed with Schneider at 2B (shifting Clement to SS vs LHP) and we have a very rubics cube team where guys will shift all over the place as needed.

vs RHP: Springer (DH)-Barger (RF)-Vlad (1B)-Santander (LF)-Kirk (C)-Varsho (CF)-Clement (2B)-Gimenez (SS)-Okamoto (3B)
vs LHP: Springer (DH)-Schneider (2B)-Vlad (1B)-Santander (LF)-Kirk (C)-Okamoto (3B)-Varsho (CF)-Clement (SS)-Barger (RF) (could use Straw for Barger or Varsho)

Now, would that work? Maybe. I could see Lukes in RF and Barger at 3B vs RHP. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jays see if Barger or Okamoto can handle 2B in spring too, thus letting Clement have more time at SS if Gimenez continues his poor hitting (70 wRC+ last year). This is a very loaded team potentially, but boy is a trade needed to clear out some deadwood.

All evidence leans to the FO signing another big player. Nothing to suggest the FO signed this player because they are punting on better options.

Yoshida and Suzuki both had much better OPSs in NPB before coming over. Not sure if those need adjusting for division or other factors."

WRC+, Three years prior to coming over.

Suzuki: 195, 158, 178
Yoshida: 202, 195, 176
Okamoto: 210, 161, 180

Certainly seems pretty similar to those guys. Of course, numbers don't directly translate. Suzuki has been an excellent hitter and Yoshida has been a league average one so you don't know but it does feel like Okamoto has a reasonable chance to be like a 115-120 WRC+ kind of guy with some defensive flexibility. That's a valuable player. Still hope Jays bring in one more big bat and I think they might need to trade away some guys too.

I think a factor here is the fact he only had 24 hours left before going back to Japan, so it was now or never. No waiting to see if Bo signs, no waiting to see what Tucker finally agrees to. Just sign or say goodbye.

Now, could the Jays blow the bank and sign both Bo and Tucker still? Sure. Very, very unlikely but it could happen. Could they be at their limit and say 'no more'? Again, yes.

Now, what would the lineup look like with both Bo & Tucker? Bo at 2B, Tucker in RF obviously.
1B Vlad, SS Gimenez/Clement platoon, C Kirk, CF Varsho, DH Springer, LF Santander all seem locks.
3B A Okamoto/Barger platoon? I think it'd have to be.

Bench then would be Heineman, 2 guys who are parts of platoons at 3B/SS, plus Straw (need a backup for Varsho). That leaves Lukes, Schneider, and many others in AAA hoping for an injury or a trade. That'd be a heck of a loaded team with a $350 mil+ payroll. Like I said, very unlikely.

Let's see if Atkins and/or Shapiro make any comments in the coming days aimed at tamping down any Tucker/Bo/Bellinger fan expectations.

Okamoto's $60m contract is "a straight four-year deal without any opt-outs. The contract breaks down as a $5MM signing bonus and a $7MM salary for Okamoto in 2026, and then $16MM in each of the deal’s final three years. Okamoto is represented by the Boras Corporation."

The experience of Japanese hitters coming to MLB is a very mixed bag. There’s a very wide range of potential outcomes here. I’m not against the move but it’s a weird roster fit that feels very much like plan B to me. Who knows though until the music stops.

Maybe if the FO didn't spend 500 million on Vlad and sign the biggest free agent deal with Cease by jumping the market ... maybe then i would call this signing "Plan B."

Jays are at their peak for free agent attractiveness... for them to drop out of Tucker and Bo would mean those players communicated they won't sign here or the Jays decided that they will spend 294 million but not 325 million. Just doesn't make sense.

The Blue Jays now have lots of ways they can improve over the next couple of months. As someone wrote on Bluebird Banter:

"If we can sign Tucker…do we trade Barger in a package for Skubal if it comes with an extension? Sorry, the possibilities are turning me all silly."

That particular move seems unlikely to happen, but there are lots of FA signing and/or trade moves, or combinations of FA and trade moves, that the FO could make.

IMO the FO is not finished making deals. Okamoto was a V good signing. I definitely expect some trades now.

Yeah exactly...I think they are spending to acquire talent and know very well what it will take to make trades they want to make (unload Berrios, find another core piece, one more elite relief arm, etc). I think it's more likely they will trade a bigger package to make room and sign Bo or Tucker than the alternative of "we're done now because we signed Okamoto and plan to rely on Barger, Clement and Gimenez all season." Just no chance that is the case with Bo wanting to come back and the streakiness of Barger. At this point Barger will blossom into a star or go ice cold again as pitchers adjust a 2nd time.

greenfrog - that actually opens up all kinds of possibilities - with this signing Barger could be traded as part of a package for something great. The Jays need to be focused on getting guys who can produce 5+ WAR seasons, not 2-3 ones. To win you need to concentrate your talent, which is damn hard. High end players demand high end contracts and will be picky on where to sign. Wonder what Arizona wants for Marte, or St Louis for Donovan? Both would be about $10 mil a year less than Bo and should produce as well as Bo would overall (defense plus offense) at 2B. What does Cleveland want for Kwan and would they be willing to trade Emmanuel Clase (signed for '26, team options 27/28 $6.4/$10/$10 vs $2 mil buyout) as well?

Class is done. Kwan is the type of acquisition you make while giving up Barger if it includes an extension. I can see that happening. Schneider and Barger out for a top 3 WAR player (not 3 WAR but one of your best three WASr players).

Mlb trade rumors top trade candidates starting the off season:

Brendan Donovan - available
Ryan Jeffers - available
Brandon Lowe - traded
Karen Duran -
Steven Kwan - available
Taylor Wars - traded

Also on the list were Tristan Casas and CJ Abrams

I mean Barger is no sure thing but it's hard not to feel his upside is higher than Okamoto's.

signing Okamoto to trade Barger would seem to be the opposite of trying to consolidate high-war talent.

Would be better to move Santander and Berrios (as much of their salaries as possible) to clear space for Tucker, Bo or Bellinger, no?

After the Okamoto signing, I see a LHB or switch-hitter (like Tucker, Bellinger, Donovan or Marte) as the FO's likely preferred target at this point, over a RHB like Bo.

(Reposting - meant to post in this thread) Fangraphs ranked Okamoto as their #21 FA this off-season. Here is part of their (ungated) writeup on him:

Okamoto isn’t the same kind of shooting star talent as Munetaka Murakami, but he’s been the better hitter of the two corner infielders over the last three years. He hits for power and average, rarely strikes out, and consistently posts double-digit walk rates to boot. If you enjoyed the Blue Jays this October, he’s their kind of hitter; he puts the ball in the air plenty and with authority, but his true standout skill is doing that without piling up strikeouts. As Eric noted in his scouting report, Okamoto has also improved against high velocity fastballs in the past few years, which is a key point of failure for NPB hitters.

Still, let’s not get too crazy here. We’re not necessarily talking about Alejandro Kirk as a third baseman; I expect that Okamoto will strike out far more in the majors than he did in Japan, and he’s up there looking to do damage, not slap one the other way. His game is doubles over dingers, but it’s a ton of both. It might also be more first base than third, which I baked into my estimation. I have him down as a solid hitter (though not an overwhelmingly good one) who’s without an obvious defensive home. I think that will land him a four-year deal with some fancy bells and whistles for both him and the club that signs him. I have legitimately no clue which bells and whistles – but luckily, that’s outside of the scope of this exercise.

That unfortunately didn't work as intended. Let's try again.

A 5 for 1 trade for Mason Miller would solve a lot of issues. What's the money situation like in SD?

Someone kick me the next time I forget Clase is out of baseball forever (gambling).

Cade Smith of Cleveland would be sweet - Canadian closer who has pitched fantastic for 2 seasons now, not a free agent until after 2029. Safe to say Cleveland would want a LOT for him. Outside of José Ramírez the Cleveland payroll is peanuts. Tanner Bibee (SP) starts to get expensive in '28 but I doubt they care right now. Austin Hedges is their only free agent post '26 right now, but is a backup catcher who had a 51 wRC+ last year so who cares. They do have Trevor Stephan who hasn't pitched since 2023 in their system being paid $3.5 mil this year with a $1.25 mil buyout so that is some weight the Jays could absorb in a trade (no longer on their 40 man but would still count against the luxury tax I suspect). Cleveland is run well, they cleared out most of their bad contracts to the Jays last winter (and Straw surprisingly was a very useful player in the end). Kwan is the big fish there that is on the market (arbitration, expected to be around $8.8 mil for '26, free agent post '27) - Jays might chase him if they can't sign Tucker or can trade Santander. Might.

So many options. It'll be interesting to see what happens next now that this shoe has dropped.

One reason that the Okamoto signing seems like a very good idea to me is that there is now insurance against a prolonged loss of Vladdy due to injury. If the Jays run a payroll around $300m, it would seem crazy to have that go to waste if Vladdy takes a ball to the hand and misses a month or more if one big swing takes his back out for a while. Need to minimize the probability of a season damaged by one pitch or swing.

From this perspective, I see a Bo signing being quite valuable as it then gives the Jays three players who can play middle infield and provide (way) above average production. Losing one of Clement, Bo or Gimenez for an extended period would not seriously damage playoff chances.

If payroll becomes an issue with signing Bo to a $25m-$30m per season then perhaps moving Santander (and his reasonable but not trivial) salary to a team hurting to sign a power bat (say, Pittsburgh) is a move that can work as Okamoto can pick-up some LF slack. Throw in some bucks to get a flyer on level pitching prospect.

Jacob, I think that is a very good point. Having Okamoto on the team would also allow the Blue Jays to give Vladdy some occasional non-injury-related rest. Vladdy has played 156-161 games in each of the last five years, plus playoff games. Lowering that number a bit might be good for his career longevity and performance (although he certainly didn’t play like a tired or depleted player in the 2025 postseason).

I'm not fully convinced that the Jays (John Schneider in particular) view Clement as anything other than an everyday player, but if they accept him as more of a 400-600 PA utility player, then I think there is a path for Bichette to come back and the Jays not having to trade anyone important.

DH Springer
2B Bichette
1B Vladdy
LF Santander
RF Barger
3B Okamoto
CA Kirk
CF Varsho
SS Gimenez

BN Clement, Straw, Schneider, Heineman

That path is a lot more muddied with Tucker in the fold, as it would force Barger, Santander, and Okamoto to fight for 2 positions (LF/RF and 3B), since none of them can play 2B. In that scenario they'd likely have to move one of Santander or Barger, as neither one is going to be used as a bench/utility piece.

Realistically, I think it's Bichette or trade at this point. If it's Tucker, then there would be way more moving pieces.

Tucker LF, Gimenez SS, Clement 2B would be a lot faster and better defensively than Santander LF, Gimenez SS, Bo 2B.

Tucker would make the Blue Jays a more dynamic two-way team. This might require a trade (Santander?) to pull off, though.

Bo is also an appealing FA target (plan B for some, plan A for others).

I think the Jays should be working on avoiding a line-up with Santander, Varsho, Barger and Gimenez regularly as that is too many players that face a reasonable probablility of sub-300 OBPs. I'd prefer to get Bo in there and see Santander less frequently. Barger is a risk as he's only performed for less than a season but if you buy his play, energy and enthusiasm, he certainly helps balance payroll concerns. Same for Clement. If that means flipping Santander and putting Okamoto in LF... okay with me.

I have confidence that Bo can carry a team for long stretches but have not paid enough attention to Santander's career to believe he can carry a team with that OBP of his. I can see a week of clustered HRs but is he a guy who can carry a team when not hitting dingers?

Fun times to be a fan.

Would the Jays want to pay more for Tucker and then dump Santander with cash for 50 cents on the dollar, versus signing Bichette for (a lot?) less and having to trade a bit piece like Lukes?

I think you can definitely rationalize the Tucker + trade Santander scenario, but that's a lot more money (both with signing Tucker and absorbing cash in a Santander trade) for a team that has a CBT payroll already starting with 3.

Regardless, it will be fascinating to see what they end up doing. Could end up with neither Bo or Tucker, and it could be someone else entirely.

By signing so many FAs this offseason, the Blue Jays have put themselves in a position where they could make *one* big trade significantly to improve the team. I’m just not sure who the trade target would be. Kwan, Donovan, Marte, Buxton…anyone else who would make sense on the position player side?

The ideal FA or trade target would be a LH or SH corner outfielder or second baseman who could hit at or near the top of the lineup against RHP.

Tucker
Marte
Kwan
Donovan
Bellinger

Are some possible fits.

Bo is also a potential fit. We already know the lineup works with him in it. But his slow speed and injury history work against him somewhat.

For fits I think we need to go with what is here vs what would be here. Using FanGraphs depth charts and The Bat X projection

• Tucker (4.5)/Kwan (0.9)/Bellinger (2.3) vs Addison Barger (2.4) - looks like Tucker or bust. If Santander (1.0) can be benched it could work. Depth Charts is T (4.4)/K (3.2)/B (3.0) vs B (2.4)/ S (1.3). Steamer T (3.7)/K (2.8)/B (2.7) vs B (2.0)/ S (1.0)
• Marte (4.9)/Donovan (2.7)/Bo (4.2) vs Clement (1.1)/Schneider (1.5) - all 3 clear improvements. Depth Charts has it M (4.8)/D (3.0)/B (4.0) vs C (2.4)/S (1.4); Steamer M (4.5)/D (2.8)/B (3.6) vs C (1.8)/S (1.3).

Seems the IF has more potential for upgrade than the OF. None of those 3 systems like Clement or Schneider much.

Average OF: Tucker (4.2)/Kwan (2.3)/Bellinger (2.4) vs Barger (2.3)/Santander (1.1) - spread vs Barger = T (1.9)/K (0)/B (0.1) vs Santander T (3.1)/K (1.2)/B (1.3)

Average IF: Marte (4.7)/Donovan (2.8)/Bo (3.9) vs Clement (1.8)/Schneider (1.4) - spread vs Clement M (2.9)/D (1.0)/B (2.1). I see Schneider as more a 'use in case of injury' guy.

So if you are replacing Santander then Tucker or any of the other OF potentials make sense. If you are replacing Barger they don't outside of Tucker (but damn expensive for just shy of 2 wins). Kwan only makes sense if you are getting something extra or see him as having a higher potential than the projection systems so far see for him (FYI: ZIPS has Kwan at 3.0, Bellinger 3.3, no projection for Tucker yet)
If you are getting any of the 3 2B it makes sense as you are likely replacing Clement (moves to the bench) and gaining 1-3 wins depending on cost in a trade for Marte or Donovan. ZIPS has Marte at 4.2, no projection for Donovan or the Jays.

So this gives a view as to the potential gains of signing assorted free agents/trade targets. Not perfect, but interesting. This all assumes guys like Lukes/Schneider/Straw for the OF are backups now and that Okamoto will be everyday at 3B. Not all locks, but reasonable assumptions at this point in time.

What if Gimenez is the bench player and Clement is the starting SS? What if Barger is the trade chip? Then it's easy to see a path for Tucker and Santander.

dalimon5 - agreed, if Barger is a trade chip then Tucker and Santander could be used. Of course, that is a high dollar option and the question becomes who do we get for Barger? Can Marte be gotten for Barger plus prospects? Using FanRanked I get a trade value of 33.2 for Barger vs 53.6 for Marte. Clearly more needed. Tiedemann has a value of 24.2 which pushes it up to 57.4 to 53.6 - I suspect Arizona would demand to 'win' in net value given the high value Marte has. But I question the sites values given they have Berrios at 22.6 value. Sigh.

Baseball Trade Values used to be fun but now they charge to do estimates ($25 US a year). But under 'featured trades' we might get an idea. Marte they have at excess value of 69.1. One trade offer they have listed (under favorite trades) is Marte for Fisher (5.4), Tiedemann (15.6), King (16.8), Arias (3.5), Parker (20.5). Other Jays are Barger (24.3), Lukes (14.3), Jimenez (10), Kasevich (8.4), Nimmala (28.6). Values shift often even in the offseason which makes me question their system a bit. Still, it gives an idea of value from a neutral source. So Barger + Nimmala + Tiedemann + Jimenez might get the job done. IE: It ain't cheap to get Marte - it would hurt a LOT in prospect value. FYI: Berrios is listed at -40.7 meaning the Jays would need to eat $40.7 mil of value to get rid of him. Santander no one has listed in a trade in years.

So far the Jays have signed (MLBTR rank) #3 Dylan Cease (7 years $210mil, projected 7/$189); #19 Kazuma Okamoto (4/$60 projected 4/$64) ; #39 Cody Ponce (3/$30 projected 2/$22); #42 Tyler Rogers (3/$37 projected 2/$18). Not bad. Plus minor league deals for Josh Winckowski & Jorge Alcala & Nic Enright (Winckowski and Enright to 2 year deals due to '26 being a recovery from surgery year for both).

The Yankees big signing was Trent Grisham accepting his QO. They also signed 3 others for a net of sub $8 mil (Yarbrough, Blackburn, and Rosario $2.5 or less each). Boston hasn't signed a single free agent. Rays did Mullins, Matz, and Fraley for $7.5 to $3 mil each. O's busy though with Alonso ($31 per for 5), Helsley ($14 per for 2), Eflin ($10 for 1), and Taveras ($2 for 1) plus Albert Suárez to a minor league deal.

No question the Jays have been the busiest with the chequebook in the AL East. FYI: the Yankees haven't made any trades according to FG. Boy their fans must be frustrated.

Starting lineup looks like this.

Springer
Varsho
Guerrero
Santander
Kirk
Barger
Okamoto
Clement
Gimenez

Barger is the youngest position player, an impactful bat and a solid defender, not somebody I'd trade.
In fact, I'd move him to second in the lineup if he keeps producing.
Santander should rebound.
Leo Jimenez might be DFAed sooner than later.

Santander and Gimenez are both from Venezuela and hopefully not there right now.

Possible vRHP starting lineup with Tucker:

Springer DH
Tucker LF
Vladdy 1B
Kirk C
Barger RF
Okamoto 3B
Varsho CF
Clement 2B
Gimenez SS

With Bo but not Tucker:

Springer DH
Santander LF
Vladdy 1B
Bo 2B
Kirk C
Barger RF
Okamoto 3B
Varsho CF
Clement/Gimenez SS

And with both Tucker and Bo:

Springer DH
Tucker LF
Vladdy 1B
Bo 2B
Kirk C
Barger RF
Okamoto 3B
Varsho CF
Clement/Gimenez SS

In the first and third scenarios, Santander is traded or on the bench (unless you start him in RF over Barger).

I support the Okamoto signing and I am okay with no Bo. I don't think Okamoto instead of Bo reduces the hitting much if anything, or the defense at all and his price is much less.

With Springer coming off the books next year I don't see Tucker signing here as an issue. One of Clement, Gimenez, Barger Santander (or all of them) lose some playing time for 1 year which is the same as last year...and that's assuming no injuries in 2026.

If you resign Bo then one of Clement, Okamoto, Gimenez is losing playing time or (or all of them).

In my opinion Bo Bichette, Anthony Santander and George Springer are all risks to miss time next year to injury. Okamoto, Barger and Clement are all risks to fall back. Having Tucker or Bo signed is the ideal move and I hope they're planning for it.

The projected payroll next year (with Berrios) is 200 million so they have the space while remaining under the cap.

The Blue Jays offseason has been terrific so far.

But they still need to make one more move to add a position player who can hit at an elite or near-elite level near the top of the order -- someone like Tucker, Bo, or Marte.

Michael's proposal (add Tucker and Bo) would be sensational, but might be a bridge too far for ownership.

I'd say the chances of adding two more big bats now are basically 0. One of Bo or Tucker is possible but not both. Bo I think fits a bit cleaner because it allows excellent rotation with all the parts. With Tucker, you'd likely need to trade for backup middle infielder which isn't a big deal but it's another move. Still think another bat is important because lineup has a lot of depth middle of lineup could be a lot better.

Related thoughts from a Beauxite:

*Jacob brings an amazing angle: Okamoto provides some protection for a Vlad injury.

* Tucker joining Jays make it harder for me to see Barger staying on the team.

* Bo joining is a clean addition with Gimenez/Clement being super utility/platoon players, Barger remaining in the OF. It gives more time for Okamoto to adjust to MLB pitching as well. This configuration allows the line up to transition easier in 2027 as well when Springer is gone. This configuration puts a lot more hope in Barger being a core piece LHH.

What the FO does next comes down to whether they feel Barger can be a core piece alongside Vlad (and Bo?) in the future or if he's better to be traded and make Tucker your core piece alongside Vlad.

Okamoto could struggle against MLB pitching.
I think the biggest differences are higher velocity and better breaking balls from RHP.
I see a healthy competition between some players.
Bichette was the Jays cleanup hitter last year.
Okamoto is probably not that.

The biggest hole right now is a top of the order left bat to pluck near the top.

The middle infield is fine.
They have guys at AAA who can be added to the 40 roster if Gimenez or Clement gets injured.
We're talking replacement for the bottom or the order. 
It's possible that the rotation is improved enough from what it was in April-June 25 to roll with this lineup until the trade deadline.
Seattle, for example, loaded up on bats at the deadline and came up pretty close.

Gimenez is guaranteed $15.6 mil this year, then $23.6 mil from 2027-29. He might sit against the occasional lefty, but he's not going to be a super util guy. I do wish there was a way to bat him lower than 9th, though.

So should we be happy so far?

• Cease vs Bassitt big plus
• Ponce vs Scherzer probably a plus
• Rogers vs Dominguez a plus
• Okamoto vs Bo a likely negative

Those are the changes so far. Also lost are France, IKF, Pina, Tate, Burr, Sandlin, Lucas, Simon, and Bruihl. Also added are Enright, Winckowski (both out for '26), Chase Lee, Miles (Rule 5).

Bassitt and Bo are imo the only significant losses. Scherzer is getting old and having trouble now so losing him I don't see as a big deal. Dominguez was ... interesting. His wildness made me very uncomfortable. All 4 are still free agents so if the Jays want any of them it costs only cash and roster slots. Same for all other lost guys outside of Bruihl (has been in DFA limbo a lot). I could see a minor league deal for IKF and maaaybe a long man deal for Bassitt if they find a home for Berrios (pay most of his salary if he accepts his option years). A mid season signing of Scherzer if injury/effectiveness issues hit the rotation could happen - I see Scherzer as a half season pitcher now.

Addison Barger is the key to the 2026 Blue Jays, if he is on the team in another two months that is.

First half 2025 - OPS of .823
Second half 2025 0PS of .223

Barger was worth 1.2 WAR last year vs Gimenez at 1.1 WAR in 20% less time/games. Gimenez had WARs of 7.4, 5.0 and 4.0 before the trade.

You guys know how I feel about WAR... I'll take Barger and his production over Gimenez any day but would trade Barger and sign Tucker if any team sees Barger as a "First half, double his numbers and he will get better," player. That's a ton of value on the trade market.

I think for me the biggest unknown is which Springer we get. Are his adjustments sustainable? His OPS+ the last 4 years are: 132, 102, 91, 161(*)* - highest of career. He had at least 580 PA EACH of the last 4 years. Interestingly, his other "HIGH" OPS+ (best OPS) also came as season 4 of 550+ PA. Maybe that just means he was injury-free?

Is DH helping him stay fresh? Will league pitching re-adjust? Will he lose another few percent bat speed and just not be able to handle inside pitches anymore? Will David Popkins be able to work some magic?

And if he has ANOTHER season like 2025, do we try to resign him at a (reduced) rate going forward to continue to DH? Or do we say "So long, and thanks for all the (cuttle)fish"? I mean, 2025 was a 4.8 WAR season, half at DH.. That was totally unexpected from me, and it's hard to replace.

Also interesting - his BBRef "similar hitters" lists 6 former/current Jays: Barfield (#1 similar!!), Jayson Werth, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez.

I absolutely expect Springer to Regress. He had his career best offensive year at 35. Question to me is does he regress to a 130 WRC+ guy or a 105 WRC+ kind of guy. Also, how healthy can he stay? Also expect a much better year from Santander so think that he and Springer will kind of offset. Don't really see major hitters due for big regression aside from Springer, maybe Varsho but more playing time would balance that out. I expect Vladdy to be a lot better during the year but other than that, don't see a lot of guys having better seasons too (except Barger if things go well.) All this is to say that the Jays have a very good offense and with one more addition could make it a a fantastic offense.

I agree with Glevin. Santander and Springer is a wash in overall gain/loss.

Varsho and Barger are both risky to count on to be strong LHH. They were inconsistent and struggled badly for long portions of last season. If you could replace one of them with Tucker it makes the line up extremely improved.

Barger and Springer are both big question marks. Playoffs OPS in brackets.

• Barger by month: sOPS+: 43-146-112-141-59-93 (1025)
• Springer by month: sOPS+: 174-137-182-132-167-160 (899)

Barger had 3 great months, 2 bad, 1 meh, and a WOW playoff
Springer was damn good all year including the playoffs.

Basically Springer showed no signs of issues from start to finish. I've been worried a bit about how '26 would go, but that month to month 'wow' suggests he'll be fine. Barger is a kid finding his way. 2026 will decide if Barger is a key piece or not.

Santander is a likely flop, biggest waste of cash by the Jays to date. 4 seasons with a 120+ OPS+ before he came here, never more than 3.0 bWAR and just 3 seasons with 2+ (considered the acceptable level for a regular). Ah well, not my money. $73,391,895 wasted (based on factoring in deferred money). FYI: If Santander has a great 2027 he can opt out of his final two seasons. Very unlikely imo, but we can dream.

I'd have to see Santander have a terrible season in 2026 to say the deal was a waste. He started slow and was injured. 2025 was a write off. If he performs as expected in 2026 (based on expectations at time of signing the deal) then he will post 30+HR and likely lead the team in HR and RBI. Not sure how 13 million/year for that would be considered a waste. He's going to cost less than Okamoto so he'd basically have to be unplayable again for him to be considered a bad signing.

Why would I say "he was injured and bad in 2025 therefore I expect him to be perform that badly again when he's healthy?"

Let's look at the guys that have minor league options and maybe shouldn't be written in pen in a major league world series caliber roster (I.e., that are possibly better as backups and/or forcing their way on to the starting lineup with play):

Barger, 26, 204 MLB G, career OPS+ 94 (WAR/150G 1.18), last year OPS+ 105 (WAR/150G 1.33), Marcel Proj OPS 727, earliest FA 2031

Loperfido, 27, 122 MLB G, career OPS+ 93 (WAR/150G 1.35), last year OPS+ 140 (WAR/150G 2.20), Marcel Proj OPS 720, earliest FA 2031

Schneider, 27, 252 MLB G, career OPS+ 105 (WAR/150G 1.85), last year OPS+ 119 (WAR/150G 2.38), Marcel Proj OPS 741, earliest FA 2030

Lukes, 31, 186 MLB G, career OPS+ 103 (WAR/150G 2.58), last year OPS+ 100 (WAR/150G 2.22), Marcel Proj OPS 727, earliest FA 2031

Like all of these guys are useful pieces and might be good enough to play on a playoff quality team, but easily might not. It isn't clear - at least from the ML track record - why Barger is worth worrying about playing time for as opposed to say Schneider or one of the others.

No minor league options (up or out, probably out):

Leo Jimenez, 25, 81 MLB G, career OPS+ 80 (WAR/150G 1.11), last year OPS+ -18 (WAR/150G -2.50), Marcel Proj OPS 693, earliest FA 2032?

Jonatan Clase, 24, 60 MLB G, career OPS+ 71 (WAR/150G -0.5), last year OPS+ 63 (WAR/150G -0.88), Marcel Proj OPS 694, earliest FA 2032

Others with either age/injury/bat concerns but no real ability to go to minors:

Clement, 30, 434 MLB G, career OPS+ 87 (WAR/150G 2.73), last year OPS+ 95 (WAR/150G 4.11), Marcel Proj OPS 709, earliest FA 2029

Straw, 31, 699 MLB G, career OPS+ 77 (WAR/150G 2.21), last year OPS+ 87 (WAR/150G 3.18), Marcel Proj OPS 652, earliest FA 2029 (if the team uses options, 2027 or 2028 if they buyout options)

Gimenez, 27, 669 MLB G, career OPS+ 96 (WAR/150G 4.35), last year OPS+ 66 (WAR/150G 1.63), Marcel Proj OPS 663, earliest FA 2030 (if the team uses its option, 2029 if they don't)

Santander, 31, 800 MLB G, career OPS+ 110 (WAR/150G 1.93), last year OPS+ 57 (WAR/150G -2.78), Marcel Proj OPS 750, earliest FA 2030 (if the team uses its option, 2029 if they don't although Santander can opt out in 2028)

Varsho, 29, 648 MLB G, career OPS+ 99 (WAR/150G 4.14), last year OPS+ 122 (WAR/150G 5.92), Marcel Proj OPS 728, earliest FA 2027

Springer, 36, 1445 MLB G, career OPS+ 128 (WAR/150G 4.39), last year OPS+ 161 (WAR/150G 5.14), Marcel Proj OPS 772, earliest FA 2027

4 of these 6 are ++ defensive guys where the glove makes them have value beyond their bat (and Varsho is a guy we'd love to extend, possibly the Straw options are contingent on if we extend Varsho or not, possibly not since they are only $8M which could be a backup price). Springer is towards the end of a Hall of Very Good player's career. Santander is the ? of these 6.

For fun, 4 others:

Kirk, 27, 564 MLB G, career OPS+ 108 (WAR/150G 3.01), last year OPS+ 111 (WAR/150G 2.65), Marcel Proj OPS 735, earliest FA 2031

Vlad, 27, 975 MLB G, career OPS+ 136 (WAR/150G 3.98), last year OPS+ 133 (WAR/150G 4.42), Marcel Proj OPS 861, earliest FA 2040

Bo, 28, 748 MLB G, career OPS+ 121 (WAR/150G 4.21), last year OPS+ 129 (WAR/150G 3.78), Marcel Proj OPS 780, currently FA

Tucker, 29, 769 MLB G, career OPS+ 140 (WAR/150G 5.33), last year OPS+ 143 (WAR/150G 5.07), Marcel Proj OPS 866, currently FA

Again, ignoring $, I think it is foolish to think there isn't room on a playoff caliber team's roster for both Tucker and Bo. There's no reason to believe that because we have Barger we don't need Tucker or signing Okamoto and having Clement and Gimenez means we wouldn't sign Bo. Totally different talent level, consistency, and profile. Probably more likely we end up with 0 than 2 (although hopefully more likely with 1 than 0), but if we want to act like the old Yankees or new Dodgers, no reason not to get them both!

It's not the biggest point, but I haven't seen much mention of the fact that the Jays would be extremely close to the fourth threshold of the luxury tax by signing either Bo or Tucker (and would definitely exceed it by signing both) and they'll almost certainly have their first round draft pick moved back by ten slots.

Not the biggest consideration, particularly at the end of the first round, but I don't see a way around that if either one of them is signed, unless I'm misreading the luxury tax rules.

Schultz DFA'd.

I think everyone here would LOVE the Jays to sign Bo & Tucker. It ain't our cash. However Rogers does need to pay attention to the bottom line as do Atkins & Shapiro (if they want to keep their jobs). So is Bo's likely 10-20 OPS+ points and likely poor defense worth $26-30 mil a year for 8 years? Is Tucker's likely 30-40 OPS+ points worth $30-40 mil a year for 11 years? That is the question the Jays are debating. Loperfido-Barger-Schneider-Lukes are likely to be around a 100 OPS+ so that is a massive upgrade in Tucker (1-2.5 WAR for the Jays current guys vs Tucker 5 WAR) At $10 mil per WAR in the FA market that is worth $30-$40 mil which is about what he is asking for. Bo, on the other hand, is around a 3.5-4 WAR guy vs Clement a 2.5-3.0 WAR guy - so a gain of 1 WAR roughly, or about $10 mil while he is asking for $26+ mil.

A very big question is growth too - Barger easily has the most projected growth potential after his 1000 OPS in the playoffs last year and a handful of WOW months mixed with a handful of 'ugh' months. Which is the real Barger - a WOW hitter, a ugh hitter, or a meh hitter? Massive difference in projection depending. If Tucker is signed then where does Barger go? He was replaced at 3B by Okamoto, and if Tucker is signed there goes RF. In LF we have Santander but his best fWAR is a 3.2, bWAR is a 3.0. So even at his very best he would provide at most a 1 WAR improvement over the assorted in-house options, and odds are low he'll be there given his nightmare 2025 and many years of 'meh' overall value. When it looked like we had few decent options for the OF last winter he made sense (no better options available) but now... now he is a liability. If Tucker is signed the Jays need to try to dump Santander somewhere while paying most of his salary (an ouch, but that is how things go) then put Barger in LF with Schneider as a backup/semi-platoon partner.

Now, where could Santander (and whoever loses out in the OF from the Jays, be it Schneider, Lukes, or Straw - can't see all 3 sticking around) be traded to? Last year the worst MLB outfields (sub 2 WAR overall) were ChiSox-St Louis-Colorado-Pittsburgh-Cleveland-KC with KC getting negative WAR from their OF'ers. KC has added for their OF - Isaac Collins (2 WAR LF), Lane Thomas (once good, but now projected sub 100 wRC+ and sub 1 WAR in LF/CF), and Kameron Misner (projected sub 80 wRC+ at age 28). They lost Randal Grichuk, Mike Yastrzemski, Adam Frazier, and MJ Melendez leaving only Kyle Isbel (CF) as an OF on their roster who had more than 0.5 fWAR in '25 for them. Yikes. Basically all our options for the OF would be an improvement for them. Their DH was even uglier (no one over 0.2 fWAR there, and that was Bobby Witt in 4 games). I could see dumping Santander there with Lukes and a prospect or two in an effort to give them a shot at future growth (and not totally sucking in '26). With that horrid OF (all 3 projected sub 2 WAR in 2026) and a poor 2B (projected sub 1 WAR) I could see them wanting Schneider (could fill in LF/2B easily). Projected DH is Jonathan India (1.5 fWAR projected). I could see the Jays taking India and his $8 mil salary off the Royals hands as part of a deal (he can play 3B/2B/LF with around a 100 OPS+ so a decent backup) while filling their OF/DH with Santander & Schneider plus some cash and/or prospects. I'd chase Matt Strahm (LH reliever) as well - 1 year left on his deal at $7.5 mil with 10.11 K/9 2.89 BB/9 0.72 HR/9 - all nice figures last year. That'd clear out some of our excess while helping the Royals in 2026 be more decent (still not a contender) and clear some of their payroll while helping the Jays pen/bench strength. Not my dumbest idea hopefully.

Interesting about Clase and the option as I read he didn't have one, but then yeah I see more recent articles saying the Jays were granted an additional option year for him. I'm not sure how that works (is it a covid provision?). He probably isn't good enough to worry about, but keeping lottery tickets in the minors is usually good even if the odds are they never work out.

On the penalty and losing the 10 draft spots, I think the signing of Okamoto has already done that (that's what the articles claimed), so I think there is no further penalty for signing Bo and/or Tucker in terms of levels of salary impacts (other than the fixed % over they are already subject to).

I think the odds of KC trading for Strahm in an effort to compete nd then trading him away two months later are pretty small.

Not impossible, but small.

Roster Resource at Fangraphs has the estimated payroll at $279 and the mark for losing a draft pick is $284, if I understand it correctly.

However, maybe Roster Resource doesn't take into account salaries that aren't confirmed, such as all arbitration-eligible players. That could be the discrepancy.

If one reads the Roster Resource page carefully, one might even notice it has a handy luxury tax estimator that is currently at $308...