Game feed wasn't working until the bottom of the first but Barger was removed mid-AB due to an injury.

I watched the whole game on Sportsnet Now.

Read elsewhere that Barger was hit on the hand while swinging. Ouch. A strike while being hit by the pitch so no getting on even. Orelvis another hit (stayed in the park), Roden 2-2 (both doubles) plus a walk. So the battle for the DH slot is on - I suspect the Jays want them to play in the field, but DH is what is open.

Well, that was a fun one to watch - what an end! Game in doubt up until the final out. Just what we all love to see in baseball. Being spring there was no gut churning when they nearly blew it, but boy what fun even if it was purely minor leaguers at the end.

The Orelvis hit was another smoked opposite-field extra base hit. He looks like he has much more of a plan at the plate this year. He's also made the routine plays at 2B so far.

Roden has also looked excellent in all facets.

Rainer Nunez has looked good although he hasn't had anything to show for it, including solid base running.

Jimenez didn't look good at the plate.

Spring battles feel a bit more genuine and fun this year because there's a lot of ways this can go down. I still feel at the end of the day the team will play it safe and go with known quantities and those already on the 40-Man, as much as I want Roden to break camp. Hopefully he forces their hand.

There's lots of good platoon opportunities at most positions, and we have some good depth against RHP. Varsho's injury definitely hurts, but hopefully Lukes gets run at CF vs RHP.

Regardless, hoping for some big breakthroughs. We need them if we're going to have a chance this year.

the thing about Roden is that at age 25 and half a season of elite hitting in AAA....there's actually no real reason to keep him down in AAA if he earns a spot on the big coub.

Completely agreed. But the FO does love maximizing their 40-Man roster management.

I hope he cracks the team, as the team would be much better with him in LF and pushing Santander to DH vs LHP.

vs RHP*

Continuing on with the crazy Vladdy fantasy trade posts, it seems hard to find a landing spot for Vladdy that would not hurt the Jays chances at competing for a playoff spot in 2025 AND would also help the other team both for this season and the future.

How about Vladdy, Alan Rondon and a bathtub full of high demoninated bills to the Os for Kjerstad and Westburg?

This opens up 3B for the O’s to play Mayo and a spot on the bench for Basallo to come up. Rondon serves as a near-ready OF prospect to restock after trading Kjerstad (a potential everyday OF with potential to become a grade 55 prospect if he “improves against southpaws or converts more of that hard contact into over-the-fence power, he’s a 55” - Keith Law).

Jays can stick Kjerstad at LF/DH and Westburg at 3B. This creates a bit of a hole at 1B but perhaps Wagner can play there. Either that or substitute Mountcastle for Westburg. It looks like Mountcastle's a pretty poor 1B too so... yeah, teach Wagner to play 1B as someone has to do so starting in 2026 anyway.

Feel free to crap on this post. I'm just procrastinating at work.

Plenty of room for Roden, Manoah and Bastardo haven't been moved to 60 day DL yet. Do Nance and/or Pop make team, both out of options.

Definitely a more interesting spring than usual. I hope Roden hits well enough to make team out of spring. He's been amazingly consistent and very good in the minors and don't think he has much left to improve there. (He has 4 stops in minors in last 2 years and his WRC+ has been 133-150 in all of them.) ZIPS has him as a 2 win player right now. Orelvis is more flawed but if he can play 2B/3B he would be a great platoon for Wagner and get some starts over Clement as well. Lots to watch for over next month.

What are the details of the Barger injury? Is it serious?

According to Shi Davidi, x-rays on Barger's hand were negative; he'll get a little time off (likely today) but won't be off long.

Thanks Joe. His LH power is legit and he has a V strong arm.

It looks like today's game against Detroit has been cancelled.

Yes, it's been cancelled and Bowden Francis, today's projected starter will now slot in behind Max Scherzer who is starting tomorrow.

I also echo what others have said that both Alan Roden and Orelvis look good so far. I thought the Jays needed another bat, but maybe it can come internally.

There's enough room for both Roden and Martinez to make the team, IMO. There aren't any obvious bench candidates (not counting backup catcher) with Clement at 3B and Wagner at DH. If you assume one of Straw, Lukes or Berroa will be the 4th OF, then that essentially leaves two bench openings with no obvious solutions. Clement moving to the bench (starting at 3B vs LHP), Roden starting in LF/DH (wherever Santander/Springer isn't playing), Martinez at 3B against RHP/DH against LHP, and Wagner filling in the gaps could be doable. Only issue is the Jays are not an organization that has a short leash with veterans regardless of performance, so the young players will likely have to fight each other for playing time and not Springer. If the team is willing to play Springer less, then they can rotate the players around just fine depending on the matchup and/or who is hot at the time.

It's a nice problem to have if too many young players are proving to be ready. Would rather have this than what we saw last year (Turner, Kiermaier, IKF, Vogelbach, etc).

Trades almost never happen at this time of year. The front office had Vlad’s number in December and assumed incorrectly he would meet them halfway. I have no idea where that assumption came from based on what has been reported about Vlad for 10 years. I had no confidence in this front office extending him going back years now and have advocated a trade since the end of 2021 during stretches where his value has been high. Fans tend to want teams to sell low and get high returns which obviously flies in the face of reason and experience- but that’s why we’re fans and not execs.

The front office is spending a lot of money on a team that looks to me to be deeply flawed and diminished from the one that broke camp last year and the year before.

I think this group has had their chances and spent a lot of money for not much return on the field to cheer for- from my POV.

A mid season trade may be possible but the salary (about $10m owing by end of July) might be too much for some small market teams to take on. I think you’re looking at something like the Yankees third or fourth best prospect or one ranked higher that they decide to give up on by mid season.

Jays should be scouting potential targets now. Probably better than the comp pick lottery that will otherwise result.

On the other hand Vlad might go nuclear and hit 35 HRs by July and more or less will the team into contention. Could be a fun year if you can bracket out the fact that the Jays will let the best position player they’ve ever had from day one walk for…I don’t know I guess rogers can explain why they can’t keep up with teams with lower revenue and poorer ownership.

The whole subject is ridiculous.
The Jays have a year of Vlad.
It's worth as much to the Jays as to anyone else.

Teams trade guys like Vlad because they can't afford to pay them.
That's how the Jays got Donaldson and Chapman.
That's why the Rays trade guys every year.

The Jays is not a team that should be trading stars.
What I found interesting about the Boston broadcast is that they didn't mention Mookie Betts.
Ultimately, Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong were just 3 guys not good enough to crack the Dodgers roster. 

On the JaysTalk podcast, Nick Ashbourne said that Bloss was hitting 98 on the stadium gun during his last outing. Something to monitor going forward. If that’s an accurate measurement, that’s a huge jump from someone who I thought was more of a 93-94 kind of arm.

I don't think Roden and Orelvis are in the same situation tbh.

Roden is 25yrs old with legit elite AAA performance both topline with a 140wrc+ and underlying with excellent walk and strikeout numbers too. And that performance has been consistent with his previous stints the last few years. And even then i wouldn't lock him into an mlb gig unless he earns it from the start and keeps earning it while up here.

Orelvis had a very solid AAA line for a 22yr old at 120wrc+, but it wasn't elite, and could use improvement in the underlying BB and K numbers - not to mention he could use more defensive development. He's been very good for his age the last few years but hasn't actually put up an elite line since A ball. Especially considering the PED issue i would hesitate to have him in the bigs at all until he actually puts up a good stint of legit high-end performance in AAA, and not just good for his age type performance.

There's enough older guys who deserve a shot that for me I keep Orelvis in AAA no matter what he does in spring.

There's also a qualitative difference (or, at least, there has historically been) in their ABs. Roden had a season of some of the most professional ABs (control of the strike zone, knowing what pitches he could handle etc.) I've seen in Vancouver in a long time. He's not the most athletic player nor does he have ton of power but he does a huge number of things well. In fact, he's kind of the anti-Martinez.

If the Jays fail to sign any free agents (their own or others - very unlikely - for this exercise I'll assume Berrios opts out) What will the team look like in 2027?

• Rotation: Manoah, Yariel Rodríguez, Francis, 2 kids (Tiedemann, Macko, Yesavage, Bloss, etc.)
• Pen: Hoffman & whoever
• C: unknown (Kirk FA after '26)
• IF- 2B: Giménez, SS: Nimmala I figure will earn a slot by '27 although Kasevich might win it by then too, 3B & 1B: very hard to predict - guessing Orelvis will be at one, Wagner the other with Barger or McAdoo possible, Clement still here
• OF - RF: Roden, CF: Clase maybe, LF: Loperfido or Schreck - other options include Berroa, Enmanuel Bonilla, Yohendrick Pinango (who they got for Pearson), etc.

Looking at that I'd say signing Kirk long term should be a priority (ideally a 5 year deal imo - hate to go longer with a catcher). Also spending whatever it takes to keep those pitchers healthy (sadly there is no magic bullet or the Dodgers would've paid anything for it).

yeah agreed with that for sure.

there's a few borderline guys who have been elite hitters in AAA the past couple years AND are at an advanced age so for me should probably be on the team to start unless they suck in spring - Clement, Wagner, Lukes, Stefanic, Roden. There's room for 2 of them in the starting lineup and 3 of them on the bench.

Then there's Schnedier who is also at an advanced age and also has elite AAA performance the past couple years, but in this case he was so terrible for most last year in MLB that i think he could probably use some AAA time to rebuild himself a bit and i wouldn't feel too comfortable with him starting in the bigs this year.

Then there's Jimenez who was solid in AAA (and MLB) though not elite in AAA. He's not super young but young enough that more AAA time isn't a killer. He deserves to start with the big team but not overwhelmingly so.

The rest of the borderline guys haven't yet been elite in AAA so really should all probably stay down there until they show they be that - Barger, Loperfido, Orelvis, Berroa, Clase, Kasevich.

I think i'd prefer all of these guys start in AAA, and they can be a full lineup of guys who all could realistically be useful MLBers at some point this year, with many having legit MLB starter upside:

* SS Kasevich
* 2B Jimenez
* 3B Orelvis
* DH Schneider
* 1B Barger
* RF Loperfido
* CF Berroa
* LF Clase
* C Bethancourt/Sanchez

All of those guys could use some time in AAA I think.



of course, spring performance might be more important than ever with this stiff competition in these spots. Any of these guys could earn an MLB spot with a good spring.

That AAA line up looks pretty good. My only suggestion would to flip Martinez and Jimenez in the field.

Yeah, AAA is looking a bit full isn't it? The lineup from Uglyone is missing (listed as AAA at FanGraphs) C: Phil Clarke, Matt Whatley (both NRI's), 1B: Riley Tirotta, Rainer Nunez (both NRI's), 2B: Michael Stefanic (NRI), Michael Turconi, 3B: Alex De Jesus, Damiano Palmegiani, SS: Only Kasevich listed, OF: Alan Roden, RJ Schreck (both NRI's and too good for AA), Will Robertson, Devonte Brown (I see Brown going back to AA).

They have 8 starters listed for AAA - probably needed given how they get churned out down there - Bloss, Yarborough, Lauer, Kloffenstein, Bash, Van Eyk, Wallace, and Harrison. Pen has 5 40 man guys in Pop (no options), Burr, Robertson, Walker, Lucas, plus 8 NRI's Lovelady, Garrett, Barnes, Fluharty, Gowdy, Pardinho, Juenger, Fisher. Then comes guys likely to be in AAA in Connor Cooke, Paxton Schultz, Luis Quinones, Nick Fraze, Jimmy Burnette, and Ryan Boyer. Phew. AA doesn't get any easier with 11 relievers listed and 8 starters.

Phew. Lots of guys who will be released there I suspect (only so many slots, but so many players and many cannot be demoted I suspect due to age, contract, etc.). I figure most NRI's will have a spot in AAA but obviously there is a limit.

Digging through this I can see why the Jays didn't beat the Mets offer of cash for Alexander Canario (very good RH hitter vs LHP, plays the OF). Just no slots left and the Mets are just as, if not more, overcrowded than the Jays thus likely to put him on waivers later in the spring.

Don't get the Canairo love at all. He had WRC+ of 116 and 111 last two years in AA and he Ks a ton.

Fangraphs has piece up on what Vlad extension would look like. Worth a look.

The Fangraphs article by Dan Szymborski's TL; DR was that ZIPS essentially thinks that even the Jays last public 340 mil offer for Vlad is too risky, but Dan thinks it's "fatal" to the org not to do it for the next few seasons because...the team otherwise projects bottom of the division as Vlad and other FA leave and no other big offensive talents are scheduled to reach FA for some time.

Even with the ZIPs projectiond and Pete Alonso comparisons, the analysis didn't seem very SABR-y.

The FG article on Vlad's contract was weird. 25 WAR for '26-'34, sub 2 WAR a year at that point based on what he has done so far - value of around $250 mil total. 34.1 if you make 2025 as good as 2024 - so about what the Jays were offering him $340 mil, but at the end he is still a decent regular at 2.5 WAR so 2 or 3 more solid years might be left then. Using their newer methods the value climbs though to $400 mil (barely) - then he says the rest of his career after that might be worth $100 mil more which doesn't make any sense as he'd be down to 2.5 WAR a year in 2034, and dropping fast most likely, thus unlikely to be valued at $10 mil a year outside of marketing value.

Of course, ZIPS isn't perfect, but it is a reasonable estimate of what to expect going forward vs just guessing. Using that method on Soto they got a value of $719 mil for his projected 65.8 WAR (the more WAR in a season the higher the $ value of it so a 6 is worth more than two 3's).

So, a $400-$500 mil deal is what is 'reasonable' if you assume Vlad will produce in 2025 like he did in '24 (big if), and ignore the risk factors (injury, conditioning, the high variability he has shown to date). IMO the more I read the more I see the Jays $340 mil offer as a reasonable one and Vlad's reported $585 mil ask as nuts. $400 mil should've been, and probably was, the Jays absolute limit. If someone signs him for $550+ mil next winter, more power to them. Odds are they'll regret it. Will the Jays regret losing him? Of course. Will they feel they did the smart thing though? Again, yes.

Well, that was an ugly start - Loperfido looking very bad in CF on defense as he runs into the wall very awkwardly and is out of the game probably with a concussion. I was wondering why he was in CF instead of Lukes to be honest. Now Berroa gets to play more. Let's hope he isn't hurt badly.

Did anyone see Scherzer? 2/3 K were against decent ML hitters -- which is promising.

I think that’s a little harsh, John. Loperfido didn’t take the best route but you can clearly see that he slips when he was trying to jump, and as a result ends up crashing into the fence.

Glad hear he's ok but honestly I don't think Loperfido is going to hit so I'd rather watch some other options better suited to the 4th OF role like Lukes, Berroa and Clase play.

Lazaro Estrada was a little wilder than normal but looked good, and I loved the swagger/confidence. He's also expanded his repertoire and wasn't afraid to use all his pitches (fastball, slider, curve, splitter). He's missed a lot of time due to injury but could help this year.

Cool to see the Jays up to 3-0. Yeah, spring records are meaningless but dang, more fun to win than to lose anytime.

Bloss pitched against Boston. Their play by play guy said he wasn't anything overwhelming. Then he hit 97, 98. Then he said he was supposed to be around 92-93.

Bloss sits around 93 mph. I watched the game and don't recall his stuff looking any different.

The game wasn't on statcast so they were probably going off stadium gun readings which are notoriously off, especially in spring/minor league stadiums.

Those announcers were... less than good so I mostly tuned them out.

Yes, they had a scoreboard showing the pitcher's throwing speed on the broadcast and saw one pitch at 98 mph. I was wondering how Bloss had added 5 mph on his fastball so thanks for the explanation, Marc.

Walker has an impressive pair of pipes.

And that's the Barnes I remember.

Rainer Nunez has been a pleasant surprise so far. Possible late bloomer who should be the starting 1B at AAA this year (along with Riley Tirotta).

Big guy, moves well... has a good eye and has had good ABs. Hits the ball very hard but also hits too many groundballs. Nunez has also been noticeable running the base paths and on defense (in good ways).

This would be an ideal year for Rainer Nunez to breakout - There's an opening available next year (maybe sooner).

There is talk online about Gimenez batting 1st or 2nd, and I really hope that’s not what the Jays are thinking. Even if they envision that he’s closer to a league average bat than what he was last season, that’s still not someone who should be batting near the top of the lineup. If Roden is going to win a spot then he’s probably the ideal top of the order hitter on this roster but the club may not want to give him that spot right out of the gate given how much they love veterans.

so three clear first impressions based only on usage not performance:

* 1. Gimenez looks like the first option to join Bo at the top of the order ahead of Vladdy. Springer slotting below vladdy to start and we can be sure santander too. Bold move to put Gimenez up there after his awful year, and maybe not even wise given his low walk rate, but i guess they value his speed up there.

* 2. Roden I believe the only one to play in all four games so far. 2 of them starts. Org wants him to make the team i think.

* 3. loperfido was clearly getting the first look at CF in Varsho's absence. i don't love it, but the injury is maybe making that moot anyways. second up seems to be Straw now which just kinda sucks tbh. not a fan of either but if Varsho is ready to start the year there may be no need for either. interesting imo is that both Roden and Schreck have played an inning or two in CF, this at least means the org is high on their corner OF defense even if they might not actually be CF options.


a few murkier impressions:

- Orelvis with 3 appearances - 1 as DH, 1 as 3B, 1 as 2B. interesting.

- Schneider and Lukes both with 2 starts in the corners. Both getting real looks so far. No CF for lukes or 2B for schneider yet. Stefanic no starts but 3 appearances, only at 2B. it's way too early to tell but if these guys don't get more flexible looks it might mean they're on the outside looking in.

- Kasevich and Jimenez both receiving pretty equal looks at SS so far. no SS yet for Gimenez or anyone else. doesn't necessarily mean they're taking a backup pure SS tho.

"Rainer Nunez has been a pleasant surprise so far"

mentioned this guy last year a bit. He's been only a tad old for his levels, and has put up very solid topline and underlying numbers at every stint aside from one (his stint in AA in 2023 after a midseason promotion).

That's all fine but the interesting part is that he's put up these very solid lines despite only showing middling to poor game power.....while apparently having some big raw power upside that he has yet to tap. If that raw power can turn into game power, then combined with his already solid lines the guy could be exciting.

His hitting lines and progression (and apparent untapped power at this point in development) is very reminiscent of a guy like Teoscar. Hopefully his power pops too.

The heart of the lineup is Vlad/Santander which we haven't seen yet. I am not overly found of Kirk hitting clean up or 5th.

So far they seem to focus on situational hitting. I like it.

Wagner and Roden are both better fits for the top of the lineup than Gimenez but i get not putting rookies right at the top of the order. And i don't mind giving Gimenez an early confidence booster either.

But eventually I'd wager Wagner or Roden earn their way into the 2-hole.

Roden LF
Vladdy 1B
Bichette SS
Santander RF
Kirk C
Wagner DH
Gimenez 2B
Varsho CF
Clement 3B

Springer bench and sometime starter at RF / DH

This might be more of a midseason lineup. Still not a great lineup but it could be solid if Roden and Wagner end up having good seasons.

Interesting take on the present Jays roster and potential future rosters over at mlb trade rumours.

Vlad will hit 3rd and Santander 4th. Nothing else is set and we might never see the same lineup back to back.

Vladdy as #3 hitter would seem to be following a dated playbook. These days teams like to bat their best hitters higher in the lineup.

For example, last year Ohtani played 159 games. In 90 of those games, he was the leadoff hitter. In the other 69 games, he hit second. Similarly, Betts hit first or second all season.

If the Jays want to noodle around and bat a lesser hitter leadoff and hit Vladdy third, that’s their choice. But it’s arguably not a good choice.

That is a good take krose.  The unpredictability of the division, of our team, makes for a fun season going in, for the first time in a while.  And actual battles for jobs in spring training!
I thought Lukes was going to be the backup in CF, but that's looking less likely, which makes a spot for him less likely.  I would hope they trade him if there is no role for him here, he can't afford more time in the minors at his age. 

I like the look of that lineup Greenfrog, although I don't know about Santander in RF. 

I agree with Ugly that a lot of the rookies likely start in the minors, especially those not on the 40 man, but think the FO might be more aggressive in promoting prospects than they have been in the past. 

I'm becoming a believer in Kasevich as a high-floor sleeper.  Insiders / our own MLU guys have been talking about Nunez's raw power for some time, and he sure looks the part.  Any other intriguing prospects emerging? 

The range of possibilities this season is nuts isn't it? They could go all the way, or they could be sub 70 wins. We could see a veteran team locked in (Bo & Vlad) or we could see them traded for kids and have a very young lineup for 2026 and beyond, or they could be lost in free agency for 4th round picks.

No matter which way the season goes we'll have lots to talk about that is for sure. This isn't like the early 00's when it was 100% doom and gloom (a team that traded a star pitcher for an injured guy who never played for us, cheap owners, an old tired stadium, minor leagues that seemed unable to produce (Dustin McGowan the Pearson of his day, Jayson Werth traded for Jason Frasor). It was a frustrating time. Didn't help that the Expos were dying as the time too. A lot changes in 20 years.

I'm looking forward to seeing which kids get shots, hoping Lukes gets a shot as the last guy on the roster, that at some point Orelvis Martinez comes up and is the monster hitter we've been hoping for, that Roden also makes it and is all we hoped for too. Really hoping Francis is for real.

Vladdy as #3 hitter would seem to be following a dated playbook. These days teams like to bat their best hitters higher in the lineup.

Not that dated - Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez, and Bryce Harper all spent most of their time hitting 3rd.

I agree on moving Vladdy up in theory....but he didn't seem to like it last time we tried, and we're talking about a minimal difference really. Also, if Wagner or Roden can hit near their projections, either would be a fine fit near the top of the order. And obviously if Bo is back to being Bo then he's a fine fit up there too.

Gimenez doesn't seem like a great fit up there even if he hits to his projections, though.

mostly backups in the lineup today but Bo is the one regular and is in his usual slot in the 2-hole.

But this time it's Wagner in the leadoff spot, playing 1B (again).

Only other notable choice is that aLukes is in the lineup but again not in CF, as Straw is in CF again as usual since loperfido went down.

Barger is in the lineup playing 3B. Looks like he is ok.

I don't think Lukes can play CF well enough to play in majors. He certainly didn't look good there last year. I think Loperfido and Straw are next two up in CF after Varsho.

Yeah the limited stats back that up.

The big question is whether they're comfortable with Springer backing up CF.

If the Jays aren't comfortable starting Lukes in CF in Varsho's absence, there's very little reason keeping him around as the 4th OF.

Well, as Ugly says, if they are fine with Springer in CF, then Lukes can backup both corner spots. I also think there's a big difference between comfort with starting a guy somewhere regularly and having a guy be able to start a game or two.

It will almost certainly be Straw. They traded for him and the narrative that they did that for allocation money is very unlikely to be true. The FO likes him - why isn't clear - and his salary make him head and shoulders the most likely to be the 4th OF when Varsho is ready to go.

eh i don't think that's so clear tbh.

Straw still isn't on the 40 man and seemed clearly slotted behind Loperfido to open camp - and it was unclear even if loperfido was likely to stay when varsho was healthy.

I’d be surprised if Straw isn’t the 4th outfielder.

Putting Straw on the roster would put them over the next tax threshold.

Well we should get some CF clarity soon. Apparently both Varsho and Loperfido are playing in 1 of the 2gms we have today.

Santander too.

I'd be very surprised if Straw made the opening day roster, not because of the dollars, but because (as uglyone mentions) he's not on the 40. Who would you drop in favour of Straw?

To be clear, I'm not advocating for Straw - I have zero clue why anyone would trade for him and his salary but allocation money does not explain the trade. As to the 40 man - there is a veritable who's who of fungible AAAA relievers on the 40 man any of whom could be dropped.

Manoah to 60 day DL

Out Of Options List

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/out-of-options-2025.html

Blue Jays

Ryan Burr, RP
Ernie Clement, IF
Tyler Heineman, C
Tommy Nance, RP
Zach Pop, RP

Hazel Mae@thehazelmae

If you’re going to Tampa for tonight’s #BlueJays game vs NYY.
Leo Jimenez is out of the starting lineup (under the weather), he’ll be replaced by 2023 first round pick Arjun Nimmala at SS.

I would guess Straw's role depends on Varsho's health - if Varsho isn't available to star the season, they have no real centre fielder on the roster and would need Straw's glove. But if Varsho is good to go, you could probably live with Lukes/Loperfido as the backup CF.

I'm pretty sure I read at the time of the trade that Straw's salary counted against the salary threshold whether he was in the majors or not.

Players not on the 40 roster don't count towards the Luxury Tax.

Yeah, that is how Cuban import Rusney Castillo got stuck down in AAA Pawtucket for Boston from 2017 to 2020 while earning 40 million.

He wasn't counting against the Luxury Tax and was outrighted off the 40 man.

Presumably, there would've been Luxury Tax considerations for releasing him. So he was left to play out the string in AAA where even if he performed well enough, his tax hit was too high to ever reinstate him.

I am not a fan of Loperfido's bat, but the stats do think he's a legit CFer defensively, maybe even a good one.

Davidi said at the time of the trade Straw's salary counts either way. https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-acquire-of-myles-straw-from-guardians-acquire-international-cash/

I recall thinking Loperfido was quite capable in CF. Physical tools for sure, maybe not the best first step but we've also been spoiled by Varsho's brilliance.

David got it wrong. As mentioned above, Castillo was buried in the minors because of the luxury tax implications. https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/09/18/boston-red-sox-rusney-castillo?utm_source=chatgpt.com

From MLB's website: "A team's Competitive Balance Tax figure is determined using the average annual value of each player's contract on the 40-man roster, plus any additional player benefits."

Davidi seemed pretty sure that Straw counts towards the CBT, so I'm curious where he got his intel from. If Straw staying off the 40 man roster reduces the CBT hit, then it makes absolutely no sense to ever have him on the 40 man roster. In that case, let the 4th OF be anyone in the Berroa/Loperfido/Lukes camp.

Fangraphs is also including "AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts no longer on the 40-man roster" in their luxury tax calculations:
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays

The CBT isn't calculated until the end of the season. If they want to add Straw (and if he pushes them over the second threshold (which is possible but not certain because its close)) they can shed salary later if needed. I really don't think that that will be the determinant. They traded for his salary - they must like him. Maybe someone will play their way ahead of him but he has to be the clubhouse leader right now (unfortunately).

Yeah, the spread from Berroa/Loperfido/Lukes to Straw for the amount of playing time a 5th OF gets can't possibly be worth the luxury tax hit for the Jays or even the 40 man roster slot. Those 3 all earn just the ML minimum and have options (I think) thus can be shifted up and down as needed also. Now, if Straw finds his bat again like in 2021 (99 OPS+) then he has value. If the Jays OF defense is a total nightmare (Varsho out for the year or something) then he might make sense too. But to fill in here and there and get 100 or so PA? Heck no. But if he counts regardless (MLB could've changed the rules after that Cuban player mess with the Red Sox) then you might as well put him on the roster and give the kids full time AAA play (not that these guys are kids - Loperfido and Berroa are entering their age 26 seasons thus at the end of the 'prospect' years, Lukes his age 30 season thus past prospect status and into 'get me enough service time for a pension' stage).

After seeing Varsho play today I feel better about him being there to start the season, even if used as a DH a lot early on. Someone will be stretched a bit in CF if it isn't Straw but that isn't a bad thing for a few weeks at most.

Nigel was first, about $97m off the books end of season

'Toronto, with a series of summer trades, cut its tax payroll to $233.9 million, under the $237 million threshold. The Blue Jays started the season projected at $244.3 million.'

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-not-among-record-nine-teams-to-pay-mlb-luxury-tax/

"They traded for his salary - they must like him"

I was pretty sure they also gained significant IFA pool money in the trade?

ah i just noticed Varsho homered in his first at bat this afternoon. cool.

also note that he was in the 2 hole behind Bo, while both Springer and Gimenez were down below vladdy in the order.

Springer was also in LF which i don't know i remember seeing before. Santander is in RF tonight.

Here's who's had the most starts in the 7gms so far, with their batting order slots and defensive positions in order:

asterisk = missed some to injury



* Bichette: 5gs --- # 1, 1, 2, 2, 1 -- SS, SS, SS, DH, SS
* Guerrero: 4gs --- # 3, 3, 3, 3 ----- 1B, DH, 1B, 1B
* Gimenez: 4gs ---- # 2, 2, 1, 5 ----- 2B, 2B, 2B, 2B
* Kirk: 4gs ------- # 4, 4, 5, 6 ----- C, DH, C, C
* Clement: 4gs ---- # 6, 6, 7, 7 ----- 3B, 3B, 3B, 3B
* Springer*: 2gs -- # 4, 4 ----------- RF, LF
* Santander*: 1gs - # 2, ------------- RF
* Varsho*: 1gs ---- # 2, ------------- DH


* Orelvis: 4gs ---- # 9, 3, 7, 5 ----- DH, 2B, 2B, 2B ----- +Bench: 1gms - 3B
* Lukes: 4gs ------ # 8, 9, 5, 8 ----- RF, RF, RF, RF
* Straw: 4gs ------ # 7, 9, 8, 9 ----- CF, CF, CF, CF

* Wagner*: 3gs ---- # 5, 1, 3 -------- 1B, 1B, 1B
* Barger: 3gs ----- # 2, 3, 4 -------- 3B, 3B, 3B
* Loperfido*: 3gs - # 5, 7, 1 -------- CF, CF, CF
* Roden: 3gs ------ # 5, 6, 6 -------- LF, LF, LF --------- +Roden: 2gms - RF, RF/CF
* Schneider: 3gs -- # 7, 8, 4 -------- LF, LF, LF

* Jimenez: 2gs ---- # 1, 6, ---------- SS, SS ------------- +Bench: 1gms - SS
* Heinemen: 2gs --- # 7, 8, ---------- C, C --------------- +Bench: 1gms - C
* Schreck: 2gs ---- # 8, 9, ---------- DH, DH ------------- +Bench: 3gms - LF, LF, CF

Seems like this is the cutoff for guys actually getting a shot. The only surprise here would be that Schreck has got himself into 5 of 7gms already. They must really like him. He's also not so young that they have to be super cautious with him.


* Bethancourt: 1gs- # 4, ------------- C
* Berroa: 1gs ----- # 6, ------------- RF ----------------- +Bench: 3gms - CF, CF, DH
* Nimmala: 1gs ---- # 8, ------------- SS
* Nunez: 1gs ------ # 9, ------------- 1B ----------------- +Bench: 3gms - DH, 1B, DH
* Whatley: 1gs ---- # 9, ------------- C ------------------ +Bench: 1gms - C



Other guys with only bench duty (of only 6gms pending tonight's bench guys):

* Kasevich: 4gms -- SS, SS, SS, SS
* McAdoo: 4gms ---- 3B, 3B, 3B, 3B
* Stefanic: 4gms -- 2B, 2B, 2B, 2B
* Tirotta: 4gms --- 1B, 1B, 1B, 1B

* Sanchez: 3gms --- C, DH, C
* Robertson: 3gms - RF, RF, LF

* Arias: 2gms ----- LF, CF
* Paulino: 2gms --- 2B, 2B
* DevBrown: 2gms -- LF, LF
* DasBrown: 2gms -- CF, CF

* Coffey: 1gms ---- DH
* Micheletti: 1gms - DH
* Wetzel: 1gms ---- RF
* Brooks: 1gms ---- C
* Williams: 1gms -- 1B
* Harry: 1gms ----- SS
* Bohrofen: 1gms -- RF

Would like to see more Wagner at 3B. He’s clearly not a 3B long-term but a lineup with both him and Roden in it definitely lengthens it and at the moment it’s hard to see how they fit both into regular playing time.

Wagner might not wow anyone at 3B but I'd agree that it helps for maximizing the lineup if Barger ends up in AAA. Here is some "optimal" lineup thought (heavily optimized for offense):

vs RHP (with career OPS splits):

C - Kirk (.727)
1B - Vladdy (.875)
2B - Gimenez (.721)
3B - Wagner (.867)
SS - Bichette (.786)
LF - Roden (.960 and .895 respectively in minors '23-24)
CF - Varsho (.720)
RF - Springer (.809)
DH - Santander (.772)

On paper, that could be quite deep and a solid "creating runs from anywhere top to bottom" lineup.

vs LHP:

C - Kirk (.755)
1B - Vladdy (.818)
2B - Jimenez (.819)
SS - Gimenez (.699)
3B - Orelvis (1.047 and .965 in minors '23-24)
LF - Santander (.786)
CF - Varsho (.684)
RF - Springer (.843)
DH - Bichette (.847)

This was super difficult to optimize and had to get creative. Clement has a career .608 OPS vs lefties, and has reverse splits overall in both the majors and minors. You could also throw Jimenez at SS here.

Our lineup vs LHP has power but lacks on base ability in comparison to vs RHP, and given that Orelvis could very well end up starting the season in AAA, has the potential to look worse. This is where it is clear an extra LHP destroying bat could've come in handy (Teoscar's .894 OPS vs LHP would be nice in this spot).

I just hope the Jays haven't just accepted Clement as their starting 3B. I don't really get why Orelvis is starting at 2B mostly because they have so much depth there already (Gimenez, Jimenez, Wagner, Schneider) and 3B is much weaker. Clement is a fine utility guy but Jays need to hope someone can displace him or at least split time with him as everyday player.

I suspect part of playing Orelvis at 2B is a case of showcasing him at his best defensive position. He's one of their better trade chips that they're likely willing to part with...

Jimenez is probably a more popular target by other teams but they need him as insurance if (when) Bo leaves.

Don't think Jays need Jimenez anymore. Gimenez would be natural SS with Clement and Kasevich likely capable backups. Wouldn't be looking to trade Jimenez though. I would wait to be trading a lot of these prospects generally as I think many will have higher value in a few months.

The Jays obsession with defense and contact (not striking out) probably makes Martinez a long shot to stay with the team long-term. The fact that they moved him off 3B last season despite having a gigantic organizational hole there was likely a sign that they don't like him there defensively, and they are playing Barger there just as much (if not more) in Spring Training so far, and he's clearly a butcher there. A lot will depend on what they plan on doing with Gimenez in 2026. My hunch (assuming no change in the FO) is that Gimenez will stay at 2B. He's already elite there and has played there for many years now. On top of that they have two players in AAA that can both play SS and have offensive profiles that more closely resemble what this FO likes (Kasevich and Jimenez). The one power hitter the Jays added in the last 2 years just happens to have a K% less than 20% in 2 of the 3 last seasons. They really don't seem to like the profile Martinez has anymore (they seemed more open to it a few years ago).

Of course, maybe the plan is to move Gimenez to SS in 2026 and play Martinez at 2B for all I know. I tend to agree he's probably a trade chip at this point. I could definitely see the Jays, if still in contention at the deadline, trying to make a big trade, and they don't really have much to make that happen. Martinez probably is the guy they'd look to move in that scenario.

today we're seeing some new defensive ideas in the lineup:

Lukes in CF

Clement at SS

Schneider at 2B

Stefanic at 3B

Straw in RF

The Jays obsession with defense and contact (not striking out) probably makes Martinez a long shot to stay with the team long-term.

That's an interesting contention that the Jays are "obsessed with contact/avoiding Ks".

I've heard the notion that their amateur scouting has a preference for less athletic/less projectable/smaller framed players in the draft that possess a good hit tool.

But I don't see a whole lot of evidence for that on the major league roster or the upper minors.

Kirk came up as a contact-first, low K catcher, but his development was more of long-shot. Clement fell into their lap and became a regular with his high contact/low BB approach last year when everyone else was hurt or awful.

Marginal prospects traded for last year like Loperfido and Clase are hackers with K problems. Ditto for Barger.

They signed a contact guy in IKF last year, then dumped him to PIT for salary relief. Turner was nominally a contact guy while Kiermaier was a K machine.

Roden seems like a contact guy, but hasn't got a shot yet at 25. Horwitz was kept down until he was 26, then traded away.

The Jays were known for decades as a "grip-it-and-rip-it" high K, high power, low contact team before the 2023 trade of Gurriel Jr, Teo and Moreno for defense and pitching.

Varsho and Santander are similarly two high-profile acquisitions brought in more recently with big contact issues.

The main thing with Orelvis is the PED suspension. He probably needs to put at least 3 good months in Buffalo before they consider him.

Clement is a good defender at 3B and he has elite contact skills. There's room for him to improve by being more selective.

Clement is a useful major leaguer but he's 29 (in a few weeks) and is around a 2% BB rate guy. Very hard to see real improvement there. It's fine. He's useful as is but pretty sure this is where his ceiling is.

Wagner's actually played more 3B than I thought in the minors. Maybe he can do it.

Another option for 3B is Stefanic, a guy nobody is talking about, understandably given he's 30yrs old and has been terrible in his brief stints in MLB (264pa, 62wrc+).

Thing is he's been consistently elite in AAA (albeit with a high babip) for a bunch of years now, and he's graded well defensively at both 2B and 3B in the bigs so far (tiny sample tho).

He kind of reminds me of what Clement was coming into last year's camp.


Another interesting factor is that if all of Santander Varsho Gimenez Wagner Roden are in the starting lineup then suddenly being LH might be a disadvantage in the battle for bench roles, and RHH like Clement, Stefanic, Schneider might have a leg up over the likes of Lukes, Loperfido, Barger.

Clement had only 41 strike outs in 452 PAs. That works too.
With Bo, Vlad and Gimenez capable of 5+ WAR seasons, the roughly 4 WAR Clement provides adds to a decent infield.
It's all about depth and what the next guy up can provide if needed.

Atkins isn't wrong that Roden is the one player who could force himself into the lineup. 

I’ll declare my bias at the outset - I’m a Clement fan. I would also acknowledge that one season (at 28) doesn’t a profile make. But to be concerned that the present on Clement is a problem seems a bit odd to me. I agree there isn’t likely much room for growth but he put up 3.4 bWAR and 2.2fWAR last year in 80% usage. Under either he was an above average player. To wit, he absolutely should be the starter at 3B. Now, having backup plans if last year was a mirage seems entirely sensible to me too.

This is one of the reasons I have problems with WAR. Clement having a 4 WAR season is absolutely insane. Below average offensive player and a very good defender at 3B is just not that to me. They love 3B defense I guess. They gave Hayes 0.8 WAR despite having a 58 WRC+. Fangraphs feels much more accurate here to me. Anyway, WAR is a general stat and for the Jays having good D at 3B, I don't think is nearly as important as having another bat. FWAR for example, has Riley and Muncy near Clement last year but I'd take either of those guys' kinds of seasons in a second. Clement also presents more downside than I think gets discussed. He was a bit lucky last year, overperforming OBP and SLG expectations by. 55 combined. If he's an 89 WRC+ kind of guy instead of an 95 sort of guy, he's a very different player. Zips projects him over next three years at 1.9, 1.4, and 1.3 WAR and I think that's a reasonable estimate. Nothing wrong with him but Jays should be aiming higher if they want to compete.

Agreed Glevin - Clement is a GREAT backup for 3B/SS/2B - if anyone goes down he can cover without being much below a ML regular based on projections of 1.3-1.9. I think last year was his peak potential FG had at 2.2, BR 3.4. Very solid, but not All-Star.

Others who might cover 3B and Steamer600 projections (putting their projections out over 600 PA, but might be using their defense at other positions)... Michael Stefanic 2.6, Ernie Clement 2.5, Leo Jiménez 2.5, Will Wagner 2.3, Addison Barger 2.0, Charles McAdoo 1.6, Orelvis Martinez 1.6, Davis Schneider 1.2. As others have stated Stefanic seems to be the guy with the most 'surprise' potential this spring - no one thought about him much pre-spring but the more we look, the more we like. Only a 16 wRC+ in spring (4 games, 8 PA) but in AAA lifetime he has hit an amazing 346/435/475 over 1442 PA, yes mostly in the PCL and yes, BABIP is crazy high but a 346 avg does catch ones attention regardless of conditions (1 batting title in AAA, 2 more times top 10, 2 OBP crowns with crazy low K% - sub 10% in the minors overall and 9.22% in AAA). Do I think he is a future all-star? No. But he could be just as solid as Clement is quite easily. The two of them sharing 3B and backup in the majors isn't a bad idea imo. You wouldn't feel like you are wasting their potential if they had to sit for a week (due to the other playing well), vs the kids who you couldn't leave on the bench that long. It is an interesting situation.

I think they'd be happy if one of the younger guys beat him out for the job but they's have to beat him fair and square i think.

Personally I'd hesitate to let Barger or Orelvis start the year in mlb this year as I think both have risky profiles and should dominate AAA before coming up.

So that would leave Wagner as a 3B option but I imagine his defensive chops there aren't great.

In many ways I agree with those takes on Clement. However, if you feel that way then one should also be advocating for Varsho to be the super utility OF. Clement’s 2024 was very similar to 2023 and 2024 Varsho.

and Wagner gets the start at 3B today.

Schreck getting another outing in CF coming off the bench.

I didn't realize he had those kinds of chops i figured a lack of defense is what held him back as a prospect. Because his bat projects well.

Hr Varsho. Barger in RF.

In many ways I agree with those takes on Clement. However, if you feel that way then one should also be advocating for Varsho to be the super utility OF. Clement’s 2024 was very similar to 2023 and 2024 Varsho."

Huge difference. Clement is a good maybe very good fielder. Varsho is maybe the best defensive OF in baseball. Varsho, aside from 2023, has been a steady league average hitter. I expect Clement to be around 95 WRC+.League average hitter with elite defense versus below average hitter with very good D.

Just checked the box score - happy that Berroa had 2 hits as he's the guy I'm hoping wins the CF spot while Varsho is not ready.

Caught some of the game today.

One notable thing was that Roden and Jimenez were subs in the latter half of the game when the low minors players were playing out the string (such as a catcher named Whatley DHing that I'd never heard of).

It's just one game, it was a home game and most of the regulars like Springer, Varsho, Bo Santander were playing & in the starting lineup. Barger dove and missed a 2 out RBI double starting in RF.

One wonders though if being relegated to the B squad has any prognostic value in terms of who is leading the race for the last few spots on the roster.

They did mention that Jimenez missed some time with a virus going around camp, so perhaps they are bringing him along slowly.

There is an off day Tuesday, so most of the regulars will be in tomorrow's away game as well.

So 10 games in what have we seen?

• Berroa getting tons of playing time - 6 G 13 AB's, and doing well 462/462/846 - he needed a strong spring to have any shot and he is off to it. If he keeps this up I expect him to get that 4th/5th OF slot, start until Varsho is 100%
• RJ Shreck - 7 G (most on team), but just 2 for 12. Jays seem to be looking at him closely to see what they have. Doubt he'll be there in April, but by July who knows?
• Riley Tirotta - also in 7 games, but just 9 AB's, 1 for 9. Guessing the Jays are trying to see if there is anything there with 1B maybe being an open battle in 2026.
• Charles McAdoo - 6 G 10 AB's, just 1 for 10 though. He can't say he didn't get a shot to impress, just that he didn't do so yet. As a 3B he has the potential to grab a job here or at least be on the short list should issues arise in the IF at any point.
• Alan Roden - seen as a dark horse to make the team, 6 G 8 AB's with 4 BB leading to a weird but damn fine 375/615/625 line. Still in the race.
• Michael Stefanic - 6 G 9 AB's is in the race for 3B/backup IF but 2 for 9 doesn't help.
• Myles Straw - 11 AB's in 5 G, leads team with 4 RBI's (weird), with a 455/417/455 line - guy doesn't walk. Odds are low the Jays give him a shot due to tax implications but who knows?
• Roden & Schneider both lead with 4 BB's, Kirk & Schreck have 3 each. Funny to have so many kids up there on walks.
• Barger blowing it - 5 K's in 8 AB's is pretty bad. I'd be shocked if he gets a shot before mid-season after that ugly performance. We know the GM hates batter K's. Bethancourt and Brown both have 4 K's - Bethancourt with 0 H and Brow 1 for 5 (hit or K)
• No one has stolen more than 1 base, with 3 guys caught.
• Just 2 guys with 5+ IP - Scherzer and Tolhurst (unexpected), both with 8 K's and 0 BB's (helps Tolhurst's case a lot). Francis & Jennings with 4 IP.
• Braydon Fisher has 3 IP 6 K's 0 baserunners (can't complain).
• Yariel Rodriguez trying to be pushed as deep into the pen as possible it seems with 4 BB in 3 IP. Pardinho didn't help his cause with 3 BB in 1 2/3 IP.

Basically at this stage of spring guys can't win a job, but they can lose it. They can open eyes and get more chances, or lose future chances. #1 though as always is to get everyone ready for the real games. Spring stats are of very limited use outside of extremes and playing time thus why that's what I'm looking for here. Berroa and Tolhurst doing the most to help their causes, Bethancourt and Barger losing future chances quickly imo. Cheering on Shreck (love the name) and McAdoo for 2025. Also hoping for good things from Roden and others.

When it comes to spring stats, we do well to remember the cautionary example of Greg Bird who was a spring training invitee a few years ago and had a very good batting line for the spring. Some were advocating Bird for one of the last spots on the roster but the Jays wisely dropped him. He never played in the majors again and spent last year in the Mexican league.

I’m a basketball fan as well as a Jays fan, and man, my eyes gloss over with the tax stuff. Sucks that it’s here in baseball too. So what are the tax implications if the Jays call up straw for like a few weeks or at the end of the season? Versus out of spring training?

Stefanic might be this year’s Luke’s or Clement, a minor league vet they really like in a specific bench role.

They always give a lot of ABS to the fringiest guys, especially the catchers. I do think Rodden has a legit chance to make the team, but I wouldn’t count on too many other surprises.

There are a bunch of guys who might snag the one spot I could see going to a rookie. I wouldn’t rule out Barger just because he struck out five times, they know that’s his game.

To take a guess right now, I see Wagner, Lukes, Stefanic, and Roden making the team. That’s lefty-heavy, but the starters are largely right. I could see Luke’s coming in for Springer for example. Santander was never a top choice for me but having a switch hitter in the middle of the lineup will help with flexibility.

What’s going on with Easton starting? On the pitching side, I don’t see any surprises. I think Yarborough makes the team and pop is the ninth guy. He’s got nine lives, but it certainly feels like now or never for him.

Sure, some relievers are putting themselves on the radar, but nobody’s jumping a dozen spots on the depth chart based on a few games in spring training.

Sure is fun to have baseball back!

Buck kept saying that having Santander hitting behind Vlad would make it hard for opposite teams to bring a RHP to face Guerrero.That makes no sense.
First of all, the Jays don't face that many lefties. Also, managers like to swing switch hitters around.
What having Santander hitting after Vlad does is give you the option to follow him with a left bat.

Wagner could hit high in the lineup despite being a platoon bat.

I do like the idea of Gimenez hitting in front of Kirk. That could cut down on hitting into double plays.
It might be harder for the first 2 hitters to steal with Guerrero/Santander on deck.

It is fun having baseball back and all kinds of things to debate. Bullpens rarely stick as is for long - someone always gets hurt, becomes ineffective, whatever. In spring I'm watching for who gets playing time, who does impressive stuff (high K's, low BB) that sticks in the managers mind so when the GM says "who do you want" the manager goes "I remember player xyz was damn impressive in spring - has he kept it together" and that can be the difference for a guy getting a shot and not. I agree on Yarborough as he is my bet for the final pen slot. Poor Pop just shy of it with others trying to grab mind space on the manager/GM for later on.

Braydon Fisher is a good example - he had a lousy ERA last year in AAA but high GB rate with a 30% K rate (overall in AAA, not as good here). Jays got him for Biggio, thus probably not seen as much of a prospect but with solid K and GB rates he might work out in the pen. K'ing 6 out of 9 batters faced, regardless of quality of batter, will be impressive. His minor league record is similar for K's - 12+ K/9 for 3 years straight but also over 5 BB/9 for 3 years in a row. That is what the Jays will watch with him - if he can avoid those walks he could be a really good reliever, but if not he is basically just eating space in AAA. A solid spring could get him high on the list of guys to call up when someone gets hurt/sucks in the pen as long as those BB stay low.

Again i only really care about playing time and decisions on roles at this point in ST.

So an interesting development today is Vladdy moved up to the 2-hole, along with all the guys behind him in the order.

Also, Lukes getting some more time in CF.


* 1. SS Bichette R
* 2. 1B Guerrero R
* 3. DH Santander S
* 4. RF Springer R
* 5. 2B Gimenez L
* 6. C Kirk R
* 7. LF Schneider R
* 8. CF Lukes L
* 9. 3B Clement R

As long as Springer is out of the lead, I don't think it matters if there is one or 2 high OBP guys in front of Guerrero.
A low OBP guys in front the Vlad, not a good idea.

I like Gimenez in front of Kirk a lot.
Straight steal or hit and run.

Not fan of Giminez in front of Kirk because I don't want my worst hitter hitting fifth. If he's better than he's been last two years, very different story of course. Looks like Straw may win a job on merit at this point. I'm rooting for Loperfido or Berroa to beat him out but long way to go.

I'd much rather have Berroa on the roster than Straw, especially considering the CBT ramifications of putting Straw on the 40 man roster. I guess it depends on how the Jays view Straw. I can't imagine they would have absorbed $11M of his contract if they didn't plan on using him at some point. The Guardians should have had to pay down way more even with the international money thrown in, so it's possible the Jays actually value Straw at that price point, which sucks. Hopefully Berroa keeps up his big Spring.

As far as the lineup, give the best hitters the most PA's, so I'm fine with Bo and Vlad at 1/2.

Last 3 years, Kirk has OPS+ of 127, 92, 94. Gimenez, 141, 96, 82.
There are both 26.
They both have upside.

Right now I could see Varsho making the club as the DH while working with the big league training staff and coaches to build up his throwing arm. Wagner and Stefanic as the bench guys with Berroa and Loperfido also making the team until Varsho moves back to the field.

Then perhaps Loperfido goes down to play every day. Berroa and Stefanic are perfect bench players. Heineman as the backup catcher unless the club swings a deal for Marchan (out of options) or Delay (Pit with 4 MLB catchers). Barger, Schneider or Lukes back the other way.

AAA will be stacked on the offensive side even if they deal one of those 3.

I don't see them grabbing a catcher late in the spring. I think they'll want the back up to be familiar with all the pitchers.

Wagner seems to be the back up 1B.

Gil is out for at least six weeks with a lat issue. The Yankees have some injury issues heading into the start of the season. Something to keep an eye on as the Blue Jays try to compete in the AL East.

wrt Straw, I'd guess CBT won't be an issue if Vlad and Bo are dealt in July.

What is the actual concern with the tax?
They went under and reset the penalties.
So the base tax is 20%.
There's a graded surtax. At 12% at 20M, 40% at 40M and 60% at 60M.
Also at 40M, the first draft pick is moved back 10 spots.

The threshold for this year is 241M.
The Jays's payroll is currently under 250M but the tax number includes player benefits and payment into the 50M pre-arb bonus pool.
That puts the Jays payroll around 273M. Straw has an AAV of 7.75M. 
That's pretty close to the magic 281M number where the first draft pick is moved back. 
However, things will change before opening day, like dropping Nance and adding Yarbrough.
In the end, they might only get over that if they acquire talent at the trade deadline. 
 

It's nice to see Hoffman coming in and striking out the side.

Also nice to see Schneider dominating at the plate again, even if it's just spring training.

I still believe there's a hitter in there.

There's a hitter there but last season he was more of a misser.

If Roden is making the team (still hope this is the case) and Varsho is healthy to begin the season, then I see the bench being Wagner (UT), Schneider (2B/LF), a catcher, and a 4th OF (Straw/Berroa/Lukes). Clement is starting at 3B (for better or worse) but is also the backup SS. Would be nice to have a LHP masher in there but only path to that based on internal options is hoping Schneider becomes that. Orelvis could also play that role but they won’t put him on the big league bench. Triple A is so crowded I don’t see how they manage playing time, especially in the infield. I agree that trading a depth piece for a young catcher with team control would make a lot of sense.

Wouldn't shock me if the Jays deal some of their depth to get a prospect or two late in spring. Other clubs are bound to have holes/shortages in the OF or at 2B or even in the pen (Pop). We'll see what happens as the spring rolls along. As others have said in the past - these things tend to work out in the end via injuries, poor performance, great performance, whatever.

Thanks scottt, the tax thing makes more sense now.
I can't see the FO willing to lose draft capital, and I had sort of understood the Straw deal as a straight salary dump.  Seems unwise to add Straw to the roster, at least before the FO gets more clarity on the state of the team.
I think Berroa has a chance to move himself from the reserve/depth track to the actual prospect track, which I think lessens his chances of being the extra OF, while adding to Lukes' chances.  Loperfido seems the other option, but he looks like he needs more time in AAA to me.  Definitely they will chose a guy they trust to play CF.

Berroa got added to the 40 man because he was expendable, not a prospect, and as a reward for the loyal org guy.  He's been in the org since 2017 and has all of one season - 23 - with more than 300ABs.  But he seems like a great character guy, and may be making believers outta people. 

We're getting the Pirates broadcast today. Is that a first?

I'm wondering if the thinking with Straw is to use him early in the season until Varsho is ready to play CF and then to try and trade him while absorbing a portion of his remaining contract. I don't think anyone is going to want him for $11M, but perhaps someone would be interested at half that salary (with the Jays eating the other half). Defensively, he's been worth 1-2 WAR when playing regularly, so there's some value there if you can swallow his hitting... Today I learned that he has just 13 HR in his entire 10-year, 4600+ PA career, not counting the one Monday against DET. He's actually hit the ball very hard 4 or 5 times this spring (and is currently riding a six-game hitting streak): the HR (101.7 EV), a sac Fly against PHI (100.8 EV), a hard hit RBI single, another solid single, a few hard hit grounders. Not sure what to make of it, but there might be an opportunity to "sell high" on him if he can continue to hit consistently for another month or so.

Kirk showing some real power again this spring. that would be huge.

Kirk would be the guy that I would be trying to now sign to an extension.

I'm actually surprised Kirk hasn't been extended. The catching depth in the entire organization is horrendous and he only has two years of control left.

It's mostly for the same reason they couldn't trade him for Varsho. He was an All-star in 22 but if they had extended him after that it would have been a bad contact.

"I'm actually surprised Kirk hasn't been extended"


really tho?

Vladdy started at 3B today.

Loperfido in CF, and Clase came in off the bench for him. (has clase been injured?)

https://x.com/BlueJays/status/1897405963155472531

Davis Schneider hitting into a DP to end it with the tying run at 1B seems sadly appropriate for him. Been cheering him on from early on but things are not looking good for him. He has time though.

Well, this FO hasn't extended any young player, so maybe surprised isn't the right term, but when you trade the only logical long-term catcher on the roster (Moreno) and then lose Jansen to trade/free agency, leaving you with only one catcher in the entire organization with any value, then I'm not sure what the plan is if you're not going to try to work something out long-term with him. I feel like he might be easier to extend at a reasonable, team friendlier price, but who knows.

"Ew! That will make you mad if you're pitching. No doubter. WOW. Yowzer. "

-"Sportsnet Pittsburgh" commentator on Nimmala's HR

Going to be very hard to keep Roden off roster if he keeps this up. Looking great. Vlad/Wagner at 1B/3B and Roden moving Santander to DH is probably best offensive VS RHP lineup (or Roden playing over Springer, Clement at 3B and Wagner/Vlad at DH.) Roden just makes the team better and is a good fit to bat at top of lineup which Jays desperately need.

Nimmala gives me great hope for the future, 2026 or 2027 at SS. Lets hope he has a very good year going from A+ to AA mid-season thus making a ML call up in 2026 possible. Yeah, the HR was off a 'meh' ML reliever, but he is a guy who has pitched a fair amount in the majors while Nimmela has yet to get above A ball.

Roden is also a ton of fun right now. 4 for 9 is a damn fine start. 2 doubles, 1 HR among those 4 hits. 4 walks, 0 K's. Kid is doing everything he can to earn a shot. Don't want to read too much into it, but damn hard not to notice the lack of negatives there.

Lukes has to be worried he is blowing his big chance this spring, with a sub 600 OPS and the backup OF role sitting there. Straw doing great but I doubt the Jays put him on the roster - I'm sure they are trying to find a team that is desperate in CF to dump him on. Schneider hitting OK (893 OPS) but something just feels off with him.

If I was to predict today it'd be DH: Roden, Backups: Schneider (PH, DH, LF, 2B), Berroa (in CF until Varsho ready), Wagner (poor spring but we know he can play, 1B/3B/2B/DH), Heineman (backup C).

I suspect Roden doesn't make it unless Springer gets traded though in the end just due to wanting him and Wagner to both be playing everyday. Springer and Straw are 'we pay most of the contract, you give us a 35 level prospect'. No idea if any club is desperate enough to eat a chunk of either deal, but who knows? Might be lucky and hit a desperate GM who is scared for his job and feels they need 'veteran presence' or 'speed and D in CF' with budget room available. Probably mostly hoping someone else has a late spring injury and is desperate.

Well, this FO hasn't extended any young player

"Young" is relative, but they did give Randal Grichuk a 5/52 extension that no one saw coming during the down period between the 2016 team and the 2020 team.

In the big picture, it was ill-advised but not catastrophic. The deal seemed to be banking on the likelihood that Grichuk would rise to a new level with either more contact or better discipline that never came.

If Varsho makes the club as a DH, there is no room for Roden. Even if Varsho begins the year on the IL, there is no room for Roden barring injury to a corner outfielder... Also, Santander said during free agency that he did not want to be a permanent DH anyway. I'm sure there were some assurances there and the club is not going to promote Roden to play 3 times a week and Springer cannot handle CF on a regular basis.

I don’t necessarily mind if Roden starts the season in the minors, but if he does well I hope he’ll be promoted soon (unlike Spencer Horwitz last year) and quickly garner regular playing time (as opposed to getting the Davis Schneider early treatment — have a huge game, ride the pine the next day, etc).

Given the way the team has operated, especially last season, I wouldn’t expect Roden to make the team, but maybe the desperation to have a strong 2025 changes their mindset. This is a team I’d fully expect to use a veteran or cater to a veteran before I expect them to give an everyday spot to a young unproven player. I think Roden is their best DH option at this point (I’m not sold on Wagner at all) but considering Wagner projects as more of a bat first utility player they might be more accepting of him in a primary DH role.

Again I have no idea how the team expects to manage as many bodies as they have in AAA. Roden going down there makes it even more congested. A trade where they consolidate some AAA prospects for a real difference making bat makes a lot of sense but there’s no clear path to that.

I really don't think they're dying to play the likes of Lukes and Stefanic and Straw. Nice insurance options maybe but i think, especially with the heat on them right now, that they'd much rather have younger upside plays (that have already been elite in AAA) like Wagner and Roden make the team instead.

i guess the varsho injury could complicate things, but he's got plenty of time to be ready to play CF on opening day, and if not it shouldn't be much longer than that.

but yeah they have to earn it.

I think everything depends on projected playing time - if they expect the bench to play a lot (Varsho hurt, someone else injured) then a kid will get a shot - such as Roden. If not then Lukes, Stefanic, or Straw can make a lot of sense (who cares if they sit for 6 days in a row). I see Berroa as closer to the 'if he sits who cares' than in the 'gotta play everyday' category given his history (450 PA his max ever in a season over 7 minor league seasons and at age 26 this year his future is as a backup unless he shocks everyone somehow).

The Jays seem OK with Wagner at DH full-time (more or less) but maybe not as much with Roden there. No idea really beyond what I've read here and there (very limited). Still, I suspect one of them will be the semi-regular DH and if they plan to put Vlad there a lot this year then it'll be Wagner (working him out at 1B).

I won't be upset if Roden doesn't make the opening day roster, but I can't agree that there isn't any room for him. Even if Varsho does make the 26-man roster, with one of Straw, Lukes or Berroa taking CF while he's off the field, you could still carry a backup infielder (Schneider or Jimenez) and Roden. The playing time argument has more heft.

yeah i don't see how there's any lack of playing time opportunity for anyone.

we don't have an actual DH at the moment.

Guerrero, Santander and Springer should DH 1 or 2 games every week.
Now, if for the first month Varsho DH every day, that's a bit different. 
If Wagner plays a bit of 1B, a bit of 3B and a bit of DH, Roden could do the same covering the outfield corners.

If Varsho needs some extra recovery time, the Blue Jays should make sure he gets it. Hopefully they learned something from Gausman’s experience last spring (pushing too hard, too soon, with adverse consequences for the season as a whole).

In case people haven't seen it, there was an interesting survey of baseball fans asking how many consecutive losses it takes to lose faith in the team they root for.

The Jays could absolutely fit both Roden and Wagner into the roster and play them regularly. It would involve consistently moving pieces around but it’s very doable. Rotate Santander, Springer, and Roden between DH, LF, and RF. Somedays use Wagner at 3B. Somedays use Wagner at 1B and Vlad at 3B, or Wagner at 1B and Vlad at DH. There’s no reason, especially with 2025 being as important as it is, for them to not take the best players onto the Opening Day roster. Do I expect it to happen? No, my hunch is that Roden starts in AAA whether Varsho is healthy or not, but it won’t be because of lack of available playing time. It will be because the team chooses to be more rigid rather than flexible. Schneider was hitting like Barry Bonds in 2023 and couldn’t get consistent playing time down the stretch. Horwitz spent 3 months in AAA while the big league offense couldn’t hit a beach ball. History is not on Roden’s side.

Horwitz looked overmatched and uncomfortable last spring. He looked himself after starting in AAA or so the pundits say on the podcasts.

Turner was the DH. Vlad was at 2B. They brought Horwitz to play 2B in replacement of IKF, who was very good.

Schneider played in 35 of 51gms after his callup. That's pretty regular imo.


Horwitz wasn't on the team because they signed Turner and Vogelbach to DH. This year they we don't have even one DH.

If the Jays want to give Varsho some at-bats as a DH before he's ready to play the field, maybe that could make sense as a way of concentrating his efforts on improving his offensive approach (with the hope it will pay benefits all year) but it doesn't make sense from an assessment of what we have available for the DH slot. Apart from wanting to give Guerrero, Springer and Santander the occasional half-day off, Schneider, Roden and Wagner are all projected as better hitters than Varsho. Even Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger have better projections.

Don't see Varsho as DH-only making much sense unless he's back in field after a few games. Roden at 1/2 in lineup makes it so much better. You get to move Springer/Gimenez down from 4/5 where they are awful to 5/6 which is much more reasonable. You get an OBP guy in front of Vlad.

Jays haven't really been shy to play youngsters. Wagner got a ton of time last year, Schneider year before that, etc...Horwitz played every day after he was called up. Also, narrative of the delayed callup for Horwitz refuses to die but just isn't true beyond maybe a week or two where he was learning 2B anyway.

according to Hazel, Schneider announced the plan this year was to have Vlad hitting #2 and Santander #3. He said Bo could hit #1 or #4 depending on matchups.

So the two best projected hitters in the 2/3 holes, which is the right call.

Bo actually fits better in the 4 slot than the 1 slot, so I wonder which guy he has in mind as the alternative for the 1 slot.

I don't think Springer has hit ahead of Vladdy in any of the lineups so far this spring. But i know at least wagner and giminez have.

A lot changed when the Jays realized that they were out of playoff contention. This was before the AS break. 1) they decided that they were sellers. 2) The season record was 74 wins. I personally think that they did not care if the record was 70 wins or 78 wins. Instead they were having tryouts. 3) All the regulars got full playing time. Vlad, Kirk, Springer etc... The rotation was playing according to plan (Y Rodriguez was on an IP limit and B Francis got deep into games). Green and Swanson got regular time in high leverage situations. It was the young players and pen pickups that were in tryouts IMO.

IMO 2025 will be a fully try to get into the playoffs plan. I aslo suspect that 2026, 27 ... will have the same goal.

Vladdy 2 and Santander 3 was part of my recommended lineup, so I’m pleased about that. We’ll see whether Roden ends up being the regular leadoff hitter over time(also one of my lineup suggestions).

Highest projected OBP:

* Vladdy .373
* Wagner .351
* Kirk .344
* Roden .338
* Jimenez .329
* Lukes .329
* Bichette .325
* Gimenez .322
* Springer .318
* Santander .318
* Schneider .317



Wagner or Roden would suit the leadoff spot, but it's not always a great idea to stick a rookie at the top of the lineup. Gotta be careful that it's the right kind of rook.

In the last 12 games of 2023, when the Jays were fighting for their playoff lives, Schneider got 18 plate appearances, and 5 of them were in the final game of the season which the Jays were already mathematically in a WC spot, so really 13 PA in 11 games that actually mattered. No doubt he struggled towards the end of September, but he had a 1.076 OPS when the Jays decided to stunt his playing time down the stretch. He also never got a post season plate appearance, and began the following season as a platoon player so that Cavan Biggio could get more playing time. We can argue about Horwitz, I don't think it was the end of the world that he began 2024 in AAA, it was likely more a testament to how bad an off-season Atkins had than anything else (signing Turner meant you had to play him everyday). Then there was Bowden Francis who the team didn't want to start a game in 2023 despite Manoah looking like one of the worst SP's in baseball. They finally gave him a shot, much like Horwitz, when the team was out of it in 2024.

Maybe they end up playing Roden right out of the gate this season, but based on the last couple of years, I'm not seeing any sort of pattern of them being willing to give young players a real chance when it matters. When they are out of the race, then obviously they would be.

Something very close to a potential starting lineup today:

* 1. ss Bichette
* 2. 1b Guerrero
* 3. dh Santander
* 4. rf Springer
* 5. 2b Gimenez
* 6. c Kirk
* 7. 3b Clement
* 8. lf Schneider
* 9. cf Clase


and Schneider just hit another dinger. He's having a great start to his spring.

Obviously Clase isn't likely to start in the big but i think he was dealing with some injuries this spring and only now getting aome playing time so it'll be interesting how his playing time compares to the other CF options the rest of ST.

According to Schneider, Bo is either going to bat 1st or 4th depending on the matchup, so most likely we will see something like Bo-Vlad-Santander-Springer as the first 4. Not sure I like Springer that high, but realistically if the Jays want to contend in 2025, then the best shot they have is if he has a dead cat bounce. So put him at clean up and hope for the best, I guess. Beyond that it appears they want Gimenez to bat directly in front of Kirk, which I'm guessing is to have Gimenez steal bases more often with Kirk at the plate.

CA Kirk
1B Vlad
2B Gimenez
SS Bo
3B Clement
RF Springer
CF Varsho
LF Santander
DH Wagner

BN Schneider
BN Straw/Berroa/Loperfido/Lukes
BN Backup catcher
BN ???

Roden would make a lot of sense in that last spot but would only make sense if they play him regularly. Otherwise not seeing a logical bench piece that's already on the 40 man roster. I can't imagine they'd want Jimenez to be a bench player, and Barger doesn't offer positional versatility (his bat has also not looked good so far). Martinez is in the same boat as Jimenez.

i'm really not sure they need to keep any of those pure CF guys for the bench tbh.

The more he plays the more I'm thinking Schneider has a shot at the DH slot (with time in LF when Santander DH's). I was hoping he'd do well and earn it and so far so good, even if at times I get the feeling he is doomed. The deeper it gets and the more Berroa hits (7 for 14 now) the more I think he will get that backup OF slot (mostly to pinch run, defensive replacement late in a corner - his minor league record suggests the Jays never saw a big future for him so that role is A-OK at age 26). I thought that slot was Lukes to lose, but Lukes hitting poor so far and Berroa hitting so well means that is shifting probably.

For backup infielder I'd suspect a vet who can sit 5 days out of 6 will be taken - someone like Stefanic. Wagner and Schneider mostly doing DH/1B/LF Stefanic getting some at 3B when Clement needs a day off or Bo does (Clement going to SS).

So IMO the 13 man is mostly set except for the 2 at the end of the bench who'll play sparingly (backup OF/IF - Berroa/Stefanic) with DH being a split of Schneider/Wagner who'll both play the field to give Vlad/Santander/Springer/whoever a semi-day off at DH.

The pen - always a crapshoot of who is healthy when spring ends and whose arm has been producing (not always obvious by the stats). A guy who is throwing easy and at the speed expected will be taken over someone with flashier stats and who is throwing below his expected velocity and/or missing spots but getting lucky. Rotation set pretty much outside of injuries.

I don’t really know what Wagner has done to earn a spot on the roster. He seems interchangeable with most of the other options for one of those spots to me. He has 3 options left as well.

Wagner played well in very limited time last year, thus many feel he will get a shot this year. I've kind of gone along with that, but really odds are the Jays will just go with who they feel is best.

One way of seeing who the Jays are high on is to see who is facing the toughest competition. BR has a scale for that where 8 is AAA level, 10 ML level, down to 3 for short season and 1 for a batter pitching.

So 8's are (not counting today): Jacob Sharp (2 PA), Arjun Nimmala (4 PA), Anthony Santander, Eddie Micheletti (4 PA), José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Zach Pop (8.9 over 10 BF), Jacob Barnes (10 BF), Kevin Gowdy (14 BF), Ryan Boyer (6 BF), Ryan Yarbrough (5 BF), Brendon Little (12 BF), Richard Lovelady (12 BF), Josh Walker (12 BF). Yes, Pop has seen the highest quality of opponent so far. Most batters with a high score have had few PA. This makes what Nimmala has done so far more impressive.

Josh Rivera is the only sub 3 (2.7 over 1 PA), followed by Phil Clarke (3.1, also 1 PA).

Some contenders for jobs now....

• IF: Orelvis Martinez (7.4), Charles McAdoo (6.3), Addison Barger (7.3), Michael Stefanic (7.1), Leo Jimenez (6.7), Will Wagner (7.3)
• OF: Nathan Lukes (7.3), Davis Schneider (7.3), Myles Straw (6.8), RJ Schreck (7.3), Alan Roden (7.6), Joey Loperfido (7.9), Steward Berroa (7.4)

What does this tell us? Straw, McAdoo, Jimenez were not seen as serious contenders thus getting into games later and seeing weaker competition. Loperfido they are very serious about thus he sees the toughest, similar for Roden. The rest seem to be in the 7.1-7.4 level (solid AA competition level, normally a mix of ML and A's). In tight battles the level guys face will show us who the Jays really think they want in there and who they are more just getting ready for a minor league season (facing sub AA level suggests they are just getting their PA).

Wagner had a great 2024 in the minors and majors. His track record should count for a lot in determining whether he makes the team, irrespective of what he does in spring training.

There is one thing I always remember about spring training. In the first two weeks hitters see rusty pitchers, pitchers throwing more fastballs than usual, and of course minor leaguers. No one should make the team based on the first two weeks of ST. It's what you do in the last ten days that matters.

Wagner was great last year. 130 WRC+ in AAA and 125 in majors. Not just numbers but statcast stuff looked really good. Great exit velocity, hard hit, etc...sure, it might not be real but this is a guy you want to give a shot at real abs too.

There are three or four position player spots available, depending on if you consider Wagner a lock.

And that’s with Varsho healthy. So there’s plenty of space for roden or another rookie.

I think it’s great that we don’t have a DH this year. With all the AAA depth, and all the versatility, locking into a zero position, bat only vet, minimizes one of our best assets.

I’m hoping for some old-school National League baseball out of this team. I want to see pinch hitting, pinch running, defensive replacements, double switches.

One or two of the guys on the bench are likely not going to start or play much,and will be used more to leverage the versatility later in the game. So it’s not like they want Stefanic or Luke or straw playing regularly.

There are tons of options, but one or two rookies are going to be playing a lot, and one or two guys are gonna be sitting on the bench, and I’m guessing those are the vets like Lukes.

I’d be genuinely surprised if Lukes isn’t the 26th man. I think berroa would be the other option.

No way they don’t take a legit CF as a reserve. This team has always valued defence up the middle.

The Jays seem to be playing well. Some pitchers are looking good, some are looking bad. The important ones look healthy, which is what matters. There seems to be a decent pen in there. The main question is run production.

I never got over Bichette hitting behind Guerrero in the Twins playoffs. 1 run in 2 games? No more of that please.

Small sample size. Not sure how healthy Bichette was at that point, either.

I would be OK with Bichette, Guerrero, Santander as the 2-4 hitters if the Blue Jays had a legit leadoff hitter (.350+ OBP, ideally with good base running ability).

If the leadoff hitter is a .303 OBP hitter (Springer’s OBP last year), then they may as well move some or all of those hitters up in the order.

Incidentally, I don’t think George should be the cleanup hitter. That would seem to be another ego-appeasing move by the manager that is unlikely to work out.

Of the established regulars, George had the 4th best wRC+ last year (behind vlad, santander, varsho), has the 5th best projected wRC+ right now (behind vlad, Santander, Bichette, kirk) and is having a good spring.

There were 100 players who had 400+ PA in the AL last year. Springer was 67th in wRC+ (behind Paul DeJong and ahead of Ernie Clement and Andrew Benintendi). That doesn't exactly scream "cleanup hitter" to me. His underlying Baseball Savant stats were very mediocre last year as well.

That's not to say that a bounceback season is impossible, though (although ST performance is close to meaningless in the big picture).

Bichette had 2 hits in each games, but he's not a guy who drives in runs. Guerrero got picked off because he was worried about scoring from second on a single.

They are playing in minor leagues park and the ball has been deadened and they use humidor at the RC. Bichette is not hitting 30 HRs. If he bounces back hitter leadoff, please leave him there.

Bichette seems like a better #2 hitter than a #1 hitter because (1) he's an aggressive, not a patient, hitter; and (2) he's excellent at hitting the other way, which is ideal with a runner on first.

If Roden is the real deal -- and he had a .391 OBP with 14:1 SB:CS in AA/AAA in 2024 -- I would be content with a Roden / Bichette / Vladdy / Santander top of the lineup. Wagner (.432 OBP in the minors in 2024) might also be a decent option up top at least some of the time.

Enrique Rojas reporting that Vladdy said "the amount I was looking for is not even $600M" which makes me think the $585M rumour is accurate which.. Yeah, that's just way too much.

It also said he was looking for 14 years... which puts the deal at about $35M per year. That's a hefty investment.

Vlad saying 'not even $600 mil' suggests he feels he is worth that much and will demand it this winter from whoever wants to go there. Can't imagine the Jays do that even if he has a 200 OPS+ this year (very unlikely). I'd be shocked if anyone does that much. A bidding war could get him over $500 mil, but nowhere near $600 mil. This is why I find Mike Wilner and others who say 'if only AA was here Vlad and Bo would've signed years ago'. BS - both are from money and never would sign below market value deals. Both want to set records financially not just for themselves but for future players as well. They both have the history of the game in their genes.

As to the battles...

• DH: Wagner and Roden appear to be the core, with Schneider and a few others having a shot at time there too. Wagner thanks to 2024's stats (ML and minors, plus beyond the basic stats) is the favorite with Roden second IMO.
• IF: for backup IF I don't see a battle - Wagner & Schneider both can be on the bench as spares, but for real backup (ie: gets in rarely) it is Stefanic. Jimenez is going to AAA, as is Barger to play everyday and get their bats ready if needed. Kasevich will be in AAA as well, and that covers guys who've had significant playing time.
• OF: here is the fight. CF ability seems important here so Berroa, Lukes, Loperfido, and Straw are the contenders for 1 or 2 slots at most. Loperfido will be in AAA to play everyday, Straw won't be used due to luxury tax considerations, leaving a Berroa-Lukes battle - neither a 'real' prospect, so sitting 5 out of 6 days isn't an issue.
• Backups if a regular goes down: in game or someone is hurt for a few days, Clement covers SS, Wagner/Schneider or backup IF covers 3B or 2B as needed, 1B is Wagner as backup. OF is Schneider, whoever wins 5th slot. If down for an IL stint then it is more who is hot in AAA - Roden high on the OF list, Loperfido is too. IF is Jimenez (on final option), doubt Kasevich gets a shot unless he is destroying AAA. Barger needs to show he can hit to get another shot, with Orelvis having the best chance to grab a job if his power shows up in April/May (I expect him to get reps everywhere until they find a position he can handle, might end up at 1B).
• C is a mess after Kirk - Heineman is a decent #2/3 guy but you don't want him starting everyday for 2 weeks if Kirk gets hurt. Bethancourt appears to be going to AAA and isn't any better. Whatley might be next in line but again, no bat. There really isn't much so the Jays might need to do a trade if Kirk goes down for any real length of time.

Pitching is its own thing - generally if someone gets hurt it'll be whoever is hot with Yariel #1 for injury coverage, with assorted kids like Bloss trying to show they deserve a shot too. Lets hope for health until Manoah is healthy mid-season.

Tye AAV is fine, but 14 years would take him to 40. Pujols had 3.1 WAR over 8 seasons from ages 33-40. Cabrera had - 2 WAR from 33-40. Sure, there are exceptions but not too many and I think you'd have to expect that you'd have a ton of seasons you're paying a lot of money for zero or negative value (more than half the contract maybe). Make it 12/$420 which is same AAV but taking off what are almost certainly two negative value seasons and I'd do it.

I think Vladdy is likely to be good in his 20s and fall off relatively quickly in his 30s. A 14/$585m deal doesn’t sound that appealing.

Hopefully Nimmala is the real deal and the next superstar to build around.

I don’t really know what Wagner has done to earn a spot on the roster. He seems interchangeable with most of the other options for one of those spots to me. He has 3 options left as well.

As I've mentioned here previously, the Jays don't have many options on the roster to backup Vlad at 1B with both Biggio and Horwitz gone.

Wagner would seem to have the inside track based on having some minors experience at the spot and some time there during ST.

Santander has a little 1B experience, but not much over his MLB career and is the big FA prize.

Loperfido also has some 1B experience, but he's sort of disappeared after his incident against the CF wall.

Roden played some 1B in college in '22, but virtually none since.

You need a second player would can cover 1B on the roster. So far, Wagner seems like the frontrunner.

In 14yrs $35m will feel like $15m.

It's actually $40M a year. Vlad has tens of millions of dollars so he can hold out for what he wants but that's an insane ask even if he has another great year. I see why Jays said no and also why they want to wait for free agency because I don't think anyone is going to give him close to that unless he has like a 200 WRC+ season.

How many really good years does Vladdy have left before real decline and injuries set in, making him relatively replaceable at 1B/DH? If we are honest and not romanticizing the player? Maybe 4-6? And the Blue Jays already have the player under control for the first of those years.

Deals of the Vladdy magnitude are made by ownership and not the FO. I think a 13/585 or anything close to that would end up hamstringing the Jays for years and especially in the latter years I can see them just hanging on waiting for the albatross to end like the Tiger's with Cabrera, the Phillies with Howard or the Angels with Pujols to name a few - I think a wise decision to pass on that contract - My major criticism is that ownership should have either extended or replaced the FO so that the FO could have been aggressive in moving Vladdy and then perhaps Bo at the trade deadline.

14 years/$585M is a shade under $42M a year, and would take him through age 40. I don't blame the Jays for passing on that. If his original ask was over $600M, then I'm guessing they weren't even in the same planet as far as offers are concerned, and rightfully so on the Jays end.

"in 14yrs $35 will feel like $15m"

Perhaps, but in 14yrs, Vlad production will probably be worth negative 15m.

The best comparative for Vladdy, in my book, is Miguel Cabrera.
Cabrera's last good year was at age 33.
It didn't help that his contract was backloaded and the Tigers finished no better than 4th once Cabrera fell off a cliff.

I would try to get Vladdy on a short contract with high AAV and opt outs.
There's little risk in that.
I don't think the Mets are interested on inking him for 15 years.

How can you give someone who wants 40M a year for 15 years a short/high AA deal? Like $80M a year? He'll get a 10-15 year deal but likely for significantly less than he's looking for.

He's putting so much pressure on himself this season and this can backfire spectacularly. Last year he wasn't great for almost the first half and needed that huge 2nd half.

In 14yrs $35m will feel like $15m.

As others have said, if it's $585/14, that's $41.75M+/year.

If you had signed 35-year-old Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols to a 6-year, $15M/year deal - $90M total, you would still have lost significant money, given 1 WAR is $8-10M. And Vlad is no Pujols. Age is a bitch, and happens to everyone - even Joey Bats - and he was in WAY better shape than Vlad.

Also, are you predicting the CBT threshold will go up from $210M to $ (35/15 * 210) to $490M for the first tier? That's the only way $35M would "feel" like $15M.

Many players who didn't get the big contract they wanted settled for a short contract with a high AAV.
Those are mostly Boras client, but Guerrero probably has his best years ahead of him.
Opting out after setting a new career high could improve his total pay.

Soto had a good walk year.
Judge was outstanding.
That's the amount of money he wants...

My gut is Vlad gets a major reality check next winter - anything less than a 200 wRC+ and few, if any, will even consider a $500-600 mil deal. $300-$400 makes sense. $300-$350 is the fiscally responsible choice, $400-$450 is the emotional 'gotta have him' choice - inbetween those is a mix of course. Over $450 is the "I'm willing to risk a Cabrera type mess in a few years to get a few really good ones" - often done by a team owner who knows their time is running out (ie: they are pushing 90 and want that title before they are 6' under, screw what comes next as they won't be around to deal with it).

Vlad is damn good, but he isn't Soto or Ohtani or even Judge good. However, he thinks he is thus will need the market to tell him 'no'. With the more we learn the more obvious it is that Vlad was never going to sign long term pre-free agency as his view on who he is was way too big. He might sign a 3 year with opt outs deal for $155 mil or something after he learns no one will meet his demands (that would set the record for Average Annual Value - current record is $51 mil for Soto, which is $5 mil more than what Ohtani got).

Also Tony Clark expects a lockout in 2027, that could shorten one of his best years.

Well, anyone who has followed baseball for a long time knows a lockout is coming in 2027 and that this might be the worst since 1994/5's strike. Owners want a cap and are willing to go nuclear to get it (and the guaranteed profits that come with it). Players also will go nuclear to avoid a cap (see '94/5). I'm hoping we get lucky and the two sides find a way to just monkey with the luxury tax more and we still get baseball in '27 but right now I wouldn't bet on it. Smart players will try to have contracts with minimal payments in '27, larger in '26 and '28 and beyond.

So what will happen with Vlad this winter? That'll be a tough one - long term deals could be a major mess if a tougher tax or a cap comes into play. Suddenly eating a bad contract could be a LOT more expensive. If I was going to bet I'd expect a tax/reverse tax to be put in place. IE: teams that spend under, say, $150 mil get taxed with it going up as they spend less to go with a tax on high payrolls over $250 mil that grows to a higher level than now. High pay taxes go to owners, low payers taxes go to players. Each group distributes it however they want. I'd be surprised if an international draft doesn't come into play with some kind of special case for Japanese players under age 25. MLB draft might be cut further to 10 rounds with a higher limit for undrafted players (say, $200k or something like that).

For players like Vlad, Soto, and Ohtani who missed out on about 100 games in 2020 and now might miss a similar amount in 2027 it really screws up their career stats and HOF creds. For us fans, it sucks completely. Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

There will definitely be a lockout after 2026, but I highly doubt it will lead to lost games. MLB was a $12b industry in 2024, and by 2028 will have their media rights deal available to sell which will likely include a bundle of local rights. That has potential to be very lucrative for the league especially with streaming services spending big money on live sports. My guess is that it will resemble the last lockout. They will lockout on December 1, 2026, and then they'll kick and scream into a compromise sometime in late February or early March 2027 when they realize how much money will be lost. There is a reason why there hasn't been missed games in nearly 30 years despite the owners wanting a salary cap the entire time. The NBA locked out and missed games in 2012 because owners were losing money. I don't think that's the case in MLB. The current system of not having a salary floor and being able to spend whatever you want probably appeals to most owners.

SK in NJ - I really, really hope you are right and I am wrong. With all that money they should be able to make a deal without losing games. Operative word being 'should'. Players are mad at teams like the A's and Rays who are perpetually cheap, owners at Dodgers and Mets for being the opposite. I think a luxury tax and a 'cheapskate tax' might be the ideal way of dealing with it, shooting to encourage teams to be in the $150-$250 mil bracket, but not forcing it. So when rebuilding you can go down sub $100 mil but pay a price, and when in contention you can shoot up over $300 mil if you want but there is a price, again. We'd see more guys like Straw going to the cheapskates to get themselves over a level to avoid big penalties, and teams like the Mets & Dodgers being a bit more hesitant to shoot up to the $300+ range. By making it public and obvious to fans then we can have fun with speculation on what cheap teams will take on a Straw deal, in addition to which rich teams might dump salaries at the deadline if they have a bad year so they can reset penalties ala last years Jays.

Even though I normally am on the players side in these I hope for an international draft just to make it easier to see who goes where and ideally to have picks be tradeable so if the Jays have a few guys they want they can trade for the top few picks instead of just going for extra cash. I suspect the complaining would've been a touch less if it was clear they were getting, say, the 10th or 20th pick instead of $2 mil in cash space. Plus I'd LOVE them to fix the Japan problem with sub 25's who are already in their ML's (about AAA+ level).

Wagner starts at 3B today.

Lukes in CF with Loperfido in LF.

Clement at SS with Jimenez at 2B.

Straw's playing time seems to be drying up.

Swanson with elbow soreness. Hope it's nothing but going to mention that David Robertson is still unsigned.

I don't see why owners would want a cap enough to miss any games over it.

The owners have a pretty effective weapon to slow spending but will still use the salary cap weapon to win concessions from the union. What most owners don't want is a salary floor. The owners are winning and partly because they have professionals at the bargaining table while the union has Tony Clark and union reps, maybe well meaning people but not professional negotiators. I expect the dispute to go as it did the last time with owners again coming out on top. I think MLB players have gone from getting the highest percentage of revenue to the lowest of the 4 major sport.

Smart players will try to have contracts with minimal payments in '27, larger in '26 and '28 and beyond

Has there ever been a player who negotiated a multiyear long-term deal who specifically structured their payouts so that a middle year salary was drastically reduced in anticipation of a potential labour stoppage?

Despite the many strikes and lockouts in various sports over the decades, I can't recall ever seeing a salary payout structure that attempted to minimize the exposure.

The Blue Jays pen is an issue. There's some depth but few high-leverage options. The club is still struggling to acquire and develop high-velo arms that all other clubs seem to have no issues acquiring/developing. Guys like Juenger and Fluharty are 6/7th inning type guys.

" I think MLB players have gone from getting the highest percentage of revenue to the lowest of the 4 major sport."

i'm not sure of the numbers but i wouldn't be surprised.

a cap likely means the players get more of the owners' money, not less, so i don't see the owners motivated in any way to even want a cap let alone lock the players out over it.

the players should probably go on strike to GET a cap, tbh. or at least get player salaries linked to a percentage of league revenues.

Salary cap systems come with significant revenue sharing schemes among owners. As a consequence, I've never heard any large outcry for a salary cap from the owners.

My worry about a potential lockout is most owners don't particularly like baseball. They see ownership as a way to make money. The older generation of people who bought teams because they loved the game is gone. Their kids just don't care. Think Ilitch, Steinbrenner, Pohlad, Seidler (brother not son), etc... Just so few owners really care which is why almost none are willing to spend money.

Glevin I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. Owners like baseball in my humble opinion. Steve Cohen is an owner. Corporations do not like baseball. Rogers is a corporation. When I think of Blue Jays owner I don't think of Ed Rogers I think of Rogers corp. I think actual ownership groups and single owners have to like baseball enough to invest their money. Corporations like Toronto and Atlanta's owners are different. Boston's owner clearly likes sports in general. I'm pretty sure Steinbremner's sons like baseball. Pretty sure Seidler's brothers like baseball in San Diego. Arizona's owner bought in during inception of the team and is a big baseball card collector. Reisendorf of Chicago is a baseball fan. The late Dolan of Cleveland likes sports. His brother owns the Knicks and NYY Rangers... I think you will find all non corporation owners have a connection to baseball.

A salary cap hurts owners way more than the current system where they are allowed to suppress player costs and can cut payroll whenever they choose to. I tend to agree that the “owners want a cap” is a negotiating tactic to get other concessions from players. The players not wanting a cap is a bigger mystery to me. Not trusting the owners to accurately split revenue is a fair concern but I get the sense that the MLBPA is happy as long as the top 1% (Ohtani, Soto, etc) can operate in a free market, even if it hurts most of the players.

There isn’t a single issue that either side is going to be willing to lose games/money over. If half the owners are losing money then that’s a different story but I have a hard time believing that.

Nice play by Wagner at 3B earlier. If he's at all competent at the hot corner then there is plenty of room for Roden on the roster as well. Barring a change in offensive performance you only want around 450-500 PA for Springer and Clement anyway. The lineup will look pretty shallow on days Kirk rests, so they might want to sit Clement too and sacrifice some defense for offense.

Juenger and Nance both looked bad tonight (again). Burr, Robertson, and Lauer have yet to pitch in games. Pop still looks like usual Pop. Ugh...

Gotta say the 'salary caps are bad for owners' is one of the silliest takes I've seen. They shut down baseball in 1994/5 over it, and have come close other times. The NHL lost a season and a half to get one. The idea the MLB players get less of a % of revenue is silly. The NHL/NFL/NBA all report their revenue as defined by the collective agreements. MLB doesn't. So any estimates are based on guesswork for MLB, and on assorted variables for the other leagues which don't always match reality. Owners can and do shuffle cash from the league to themselves via assorted methods - they find ways to avoid it being counted towards cap and the like. Do you think Rogers pays the Jays an appropriate amount for TV rights? That the Jays pay an appropriate amount to use the dome? No, of course not. It is all a shell game to maximize profits overall for Rogers, while shuffling things for tax purposes and to minimize how much they pay to the league in revenue sharing. Now multiple that by 30. Picture how teams hide revenue from players to allow them to minimize how much is reported so the cap/floor can be as low as possible. Right now, rich teams in the other 3 leagues have a license to print money - the Leafs must be hauling in an insane amount of profit to guarantee other clubs can compete via an artificially low max. The poorest teams can lose money due to the floor, but with enough revenue sharing they won't.

There is a reason owners are willing to lose seasons to put in a cap, and players are willing to lose seasons to avoid one. If there was any proof that it works the other way MLB would've had a cap years ago.

For competitive reasons is not a thing. MLB has far more variety in who wins than any of the other leagues. Just 1 MLB team had a 600 win% last year, 4 in 2023 (none over 650), 5 in '22 (685 highest by Dodgers), 3 in '21. Total of 13 over 4 years. The NBA has 2 over 800 (!) this year, 8 over 600. In 23-24 it was 1 over 700, 7 600+; 22-23 1 over 700, 6 over 600; 21-22 1 over 700, 8 over 600. Basically every year the NBA has multiple teams that are far stronger vs everyone else than we ever see in MLB. For a 763 record win % in MLB you gotta go back to the 1906 Cubs, with the 2001 Mariners the last to crack 700 (and lost in the playoffs). Neither close to the 800 mark the NBA sees now and then. The NFL has had a couple of teams go perfect in the regular season, and often has teams lose just 1 or 2 all year (2 teams were 15-2 last year with the title game being a repeat of the previous years). The NHL is closer but with ties it gets messy for a direct comparison.

Basically any day any team can win in MLB. In a playoff series either club could win without it being a total shock. In the NBA/NFL that isn't the case, thus point spreads are critical to make games 'interesting'. The NHL again is closest to MLB for fun but this decade has a repeat champ in Tampa (2020 and 2021) with the Penguins in the teens, none in the 00's (NJ closest with 2 in 4 years) to cover the cap era. MLB has the odd blowout stretch (Yankees 98-01) but it really stands out due to it being rare. We do see division dominance sometimes due to having divisions set up in weird ways it seems (Tampa in a division with NY/Toronto/Boston seems weird to me - 1 team with no resources the others with tons then you get the O's who can't make up their minds if they have cash or not; then you get the horrid central divisions where competition is not a thing if you go by payrolls).

Nah, no need for a cap, nor do the players want it. Less revenue sharing increases incentives for clubs to be good which increases competition for the best players. The Jays know if they don't win they don't get fan support so expect high payrolls for the foreseeable future. The Cubs know they don't need to win or even to try hard in the NL Central with a fan base that is used to losing (2016 the exception to an over 100 year rule). Other teams try but fail (Angels) while others cheap out and enjoy profits (Pirates, appropriately named).

Agreed. Also Orelvis didn't look good at 3B. Whatley had trouble catching the ball and had terrible technique on balls in the dirt. Clase missed a diving catch to end the game. They scored the 7 run because Roden hustled as Nimmala was eventually thrown out for trying to advance.

This is the Rays field for 2025. I don't think anyone will miss the Trop when it's not raining but it will rain a lot.

Swanson had an MRI for elbow discomfort and will start the season on the IL. Kasevich aggravated a stress reaction in his lower back and will be shut down for weeks. Braydon Fisher pitched well yesterday. I like Fluharty but I don't see him breaking with the team. Ryan Burr has shoulder tendinis and hasn't pitched yet.

Gunnar Henderson, George Kirby and Gerrit Cole both likely injured to start 2025. That has huge implications for Jays playoff odds.

Add Grayson Rodriguez who's ligament is apparently fine but he has elbow discomfort and diminished velocity and feels "flat."

The biggest shock for the Orioles is Grayson Rodriguez battling elbow issues. He's their opening day starter.
They also have Andrew Kiitredge missing several months following knee surgery.
Baltimore has several starting pitchers on the IL: Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Chayce McDermott, Trevor Rogers and Tyler Wells.
The projected rotation is Zach Elfin, Charlie Morton (41), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano and Cade Povich.
Sugano is a 35 year old Japanese pitcher making his MLB debut this year.

Hard to assess the impact of Kirby. It could mostly benefit the Astros and Rangers.
On the other hand, the A's are looking more competitive, so it could be harder for those teams to grab a wild card.
And yet, I don't expect much from the Angels. So, you knows?

Agreed on Juenger. Fluharty is a guy you bring in to face the top left bats.

They have Green and Garcia as the high leverage guys and Hoffman as the closer.
Hoffman might be able to get more than 3 outs but I don't know if they want to go there.
Rodriguez could be a high-leverage option, he's done it before.
I would be shocked if Yarbrough doesn't make the team. That frees Rodriguez to pitch later if needed.

In April, the starters cannot go as deep, so the low-leverage guys are pretty important.
Sandlin and Little are OK. The Yankees' best left arm is Tim Hill.
If Pop has to replace Swanson for a couple of months, it's not the end of the world.

The Jays have a ton of pitchers recovering from elbow issues.
Most of these guys could be brought back as relievers.

Jennings has looked pretty good, but he's a AA starter.
They finished low enough to be able to claim some decent arms on waivers before opening days if they choose to do so.

In the meanwhile, pitchers will keep getting injured and there's 19 days to the start of the season.

"There is a reason owners are willing to lose seasons to put in a cap, and players are willing to lose seasons to avoid one."

And there is a reason why MLB owners aren't willing to lose seasons to get one, and a reason why they haven't even hinted they cared to get one.

Just based on current reported revenues a 50% cut of league revenues would fork over another billion or so to the players - And if you are right about the owners hiding revenue then the players would get even more.

I don't know if it was a set plan from the start but it looks like Barger has moved from mostly 3b to start to mostly OF now.

Would be cool if that was because they liked what they saw defensively from Wagner at 3B.

All young players and prospects if healthy have the opportunity to impress and earn a ML job. If the D is weak then that lessens where you can play. Same with strong D but weak O. Roden seems to be able to do both reasonably well.

Again - cap systems require revenue sharing. Unlike the NFL or NBA (whose national TV and streaming revenues are huge) local market revenues in MLB make up the majority of an owner’s revenue. The reason MLB owners aren’t pushing for a cap is that the large revenue teams have little interest or incentive to share revenue with the small market teams. Until the league’s competitive imbalances (the Dodgers winning every year) actually start to hurt the revenue generation of the large market teams there will be no cap system in baseball.

The issue of a salary cap in baseball has very little to do with owners versus players - its owners versus owners.

Good point - revenue sharing is something owners want to avoid, and as fans we should want to avoid too - it discourages competition as winning or losing teams end up with the same revenue or close to it. Basically a Maple Leafs/Chicago Cubs situation. Sometimes owners will decide they want to win in those cases and push for it, but generally they are satisfied sitting back and counting their millions.

revenue sharing is part of the issue but not nearly the most important one.

the most important issue is obvious - a cap would significantly raise player costs for the majority of owners.

John - I’d challenge the notion that “fans” shouldn’t want revenue sharing. It depends on which team that you are a fan of. MLB isn’t far from European soccer where the winners of the league are basically known before the season is even played. As a lifelong fan of Southampton in the EPL (more years than not) it does take a lot out of one’s fandom to know that you have no chance to ever win the league. Personally, I find salary cap sports generally more interesting because management teams are judged based on their salary efficiency rather than pure salary spending.

When the NHL owners locked out the players for a cap, the players' share of revenue was quickly running up into the 60-70% range..

The owners had no choice but to get a cap in place, and losing a season of revenue was well worth it.

The Rangers and Leafs fought the imposition of the cap tooth and nail.

Gerrit Cole is having a MRI done on his pitching elbow due to discomfort. Could be bad news for the Yankees.

Well, last year he had an elbow MRI and came back strong after taking a couple of months off to rehab the elbow. We'll see what the diagnosis is this time around.

The Yankees have survived injury-plagued seasons before (2023, for example). But it would be a big blow to their chances if Cole had a significant elbow injury that impaired his performance or required surgery.

MLBTR update:

"March 8: According to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, the results of Cole’s initial diagnostic tests have been distributed, and the right-hander is now in the process of seeking a second opinion. While Cole told reporters (including Hoch) that he is 'concerned' about his elbow, the 2023 AL Cy Young winner also expressed a bit of optimism. 'I’ve still got some hope,' he said. Per Hoch, Cole and the Yankees expect to know more about the status of his elbow in the next few days."

Only reason for a cap from the owners perspective is if 1) the majority of owners are losing money in the current system or 2) their share of revenue is negatively disproportionate to that of the players. It doesn’t appear that either of those things apply to MLB owners. Do you believe the owners in small markets who feel they can’t compete with the big markets are going to forgo a year of revenue so that the league institutes a floor where they have to spend $120M a year on payroll and that players get 50% of league revenue? The owner in that scenario is better off having a payroll of $50M and trying to field a contender from that than the alternative.

To Nigel’s point, the league’s plan is to bundle up local TV rights and sell them to the highest bidder by 2028. The issue with that is that the big markets teams (Dodgers, Yanks, Cubs, Red Sox, Jays, etc) either have extremely long/lucrative existing local rights deals in place or have their own local distribution, so those teams would never agree to be packaged to an Amazon for example for the local rights and have to split it evenly among every team. It will be impossible to get an NFL type of cap/league. On the flip side, the MLBPA wants the top 1% to operate in a free market. They care about that more than anything else. A cap would mean Ohtani’s salary would have to be capped at a certain amount so he wouldn’t be able to maximize his earnings. That model likely helps the majority of players in the league who aren’t superstars, though. Look at the NBA model where backups are making $20M a year but the LeBron’s and Curry’s have ceilings on what they could make. MLBPA doesn’t want that.

I could be wrong, and I hope I’m not, but there’s no way they miss regular season games in 2027. They’ll huff and puff for 3-4 months during an off season lockout where neither side loses money, then find a compromise in early March like last time. Then they’ll talk smack about each other publicly for another 5 years before they repeat the cycle again.

Scherzer looked great today. I liked the signing, but I didn’t think I was gonna like watching him pitch this much.

Having a lot of versatility, even if they don’t love Wagner at third, he can still get some playing time with Clement available as a defensive replacement.

Gotta figure the early days of spring were for positional experiments, and guys are gonna play where the org sees them going forward. Barger never looked good at third to me, but his arm plays in right

Scherzer did look great today. Ernie is obviously going to be the MVP this year. Gimenez hasn’t looked good at the plate (so far) this spring.

Spring stats generally don't matter execpt for people trying to make team. So many times I've seen guys rake/ struggle all spring and then start season exactly how you'd expect them too. We're so hungry for stats though that it's easy to read into them. That being said, Roden another HR this time off a lefty. Really would like him to make it impossible for Jays to send him down.

Gimenez is seeing a lot of lefties and not the starter with reverse splits kind.
He's not striking out or looking lost at the plate, he's just hitting ground balls at guys.

Scherzer is a swinging strike machine.

Clement is an average bat with a top glove.

Everybody knows that Santander is a low ball hitter, so he sees a lot of high balls and he just take his walk.
The book on Springer seem to be to start him with balls inside and then to attack him outside.

I like Bichette with good runners on the basepaths, such as the guys who usually hit 8 and 9.

Lukes has played well. Straw has hit so far.

Roden making it hard to keep him off the roster. I’m sure they’ll try but at some point they will have to concede that he’s someone they’ll need to take with them to the regular season.

Would love to see Roden make the team and be the leadoff hitter (followed by Bo, Vladdy, Santander).

Would love to see the front office and Schneider not be cautious, cautious, cautious this time.

The team has to take risks if they want to compete, so bringing a rookie in to leadoff is a risk and one they should take. If you don't put Roden (or Wagner) there, then simply moving everyone up one is an awful idea. Bichette is a hitter, not an on-base guy. You need people on in front of him to drive in runs. Bichette should be the guy directly behind Guerrero in that scenario; not Santander.

Drilling down a bit on Roden's ST line:

10 games, 21 PA, .429/.619/1.000, 2 doubles, 2 HR, 4 BB (3 HBP!), 0 K

Can't do much better than that. Only strike against him is that opp. qual. to date is 7.4 (between AA and AAA). So it's basically like he's hitting against pitchers of the calibre he faced last season in the minors.

Roden starts in CF today.

Wagner at 3B.

There was belief last year that Roden is naturally athletic enough to play CF. However, I believe in the 1st or 2nd game they put him in CF, he got injured, which ended his season.

We're spoiled by top tier CF defense. If he can even provide competent CF defense with his lack of experience, that would seem like a great way to get him in the lineup in the early going.

No pitch tracking at the Rays stadium. Only one commentator. Figures.

Bradley was bad. Schneider called for bunts and hit and run against a pitcher who can't throw strikes. That's bad baseball.

I don't know if it's just the weather in Port Charlotte, but the picture quality of the batter-pitcher cam seems subpar. Like going back to SD quality or the lens being dirty.

The strange thing is that the baseline cameras seem fine, bright and HD.

Barger's having himself a pretty nice spring at the plate.

It's too bad the club seems to have decided that Barger isn't suited to play 3B.

There's not much room in the OF with Santander, Springer and Varsho when he's healthy.

And yet there's an Ernie Clement sized hole at 3B until someone steps up and claims it.

It seems Gimenez is also entrenched at 2B instead of covering the left side.

Barger to the OF isn’t recent. They were playing him as a RF in his AAA time too.

true but his first bunch of games this spring were at 3B and now he's been in the OF the last bunch while wagner and stefanic have been getting the 3B looks instead.

Barger spring game log - 3B, 3B, 3B, RF, 3B, 3B, RF, RF, RF

That's actually a lot more time at 3B this spring for Barger than I realized.

Fun small sample size spring training stats:

- Schneider with the most walks (8)
- Roden and Kasevich the only players with more than 4 PA to not strikeout (Kasevich at 10 PA, Roden 21)
- Roden with a 1.563 OPS
- Berroa and Straw both with OPS' over 1.000, as we expected
- Wagner with a surprising 0 walks

Smll sample size, but i do think Schneider hs been screwed by young player strike zone. Automated balls & strikes going more his way.

Up to 13 players reassigned to minor camp, although we might still see them in some road games.

MLBTR: “Today, Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that Cole has been recommended for Tommy John surgery, though the Yankees are currently waiting to receive a second opinion to confirm that diagnosis.”

Wow. This could be a huge blow for the Yankees, especially with some of the other injury issues (Gil, Stanton) they’ve been having. Although the NYY always seem to pull through and have a good season somehow.

In other Yankee news Paul Goldschmidt has 10 Ks in 22 spring training plate appearances. They may need to get him some of that pixie dust they used on Matt Carpenter.

Looks like Swanson needs surgery which is a blow. Jays (re)signed Tate to replace him.

Tate doesn't replace Swanson, but he's probably better than Pop. Tate has large splits and can be effective if used against right handed bats. He's more of a replacement for Burr.

Cole will be a blow to the NYY but Stanton will have zero impact if you believe WAR. Obviously the truth (for me) is that combined these two will have a massive impact on the outlook for 2025 and will lower the NYY to the rest of the pack in the AL East.

I must say I felt old watching Homer Bush Jr. batting yesterday.

There is a good article on Lazaro Estrada at Sportsnet today. He's turning 26 this season but has endured a few setbacks along the way, including the Covid nonseason and reconstructive elbow surgery. He has great stuff and we could see him at the major league level at some point this year.

The Stanton impact is having to find a DH on the cheap. They will try Ben Rice, but it's hard for a rookie to break out as a DH.

The Yankees are low on depth, having traded several guys for one year of Soto. They have a few corner outfielders but that's not really their need.

with the cuts starting to happen, we're entering the more relevant part of spring training where performance might start to matter a little bit more.

today's lineup tells me the team is getting down to business, and this could easily be an opening day lineup:

* 1. SS Bichette
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. RF Santander
* 4. LF Springer
* 5. 2B Gimenez
* 6. C Kirk
* 7. DH Wagner
* 8. 3B Clement
* 9. CF Loperfido


Obviously a healthy Varsho kicks Loperfido out of that lineup, but i think this tells us that Loperfido is still their 1st choice in CF if Varsho can't go, at least for now.

Wagner obviously not earning a starting spot so far, but 18pa in ST is obviously not gonna be a decision maker for them. He's still their first choice to win that spot at the moment.

The Gimenez ahead of Kirk thing seems like something they want to try. Which is fine. Even if it's likely that Wagner and Kirk outhit Gimenez and Springer in the end.


And as meaningless as ST stats are, we can still have some fun with them. I remember reading a fangraphs article some years ago where they analyzed ST stats and the only ones that actually seemed to have any carrying power over into the regular season were BB% and K%, so keep that in mind when looking at these stats.

We have 8 guys guaranteed spots to start IMO:

* SS Bichette 27 R: 27pa, 3.7b%, 14.8%, .381bip, .346avg, .192iso, 134wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 25pa, 8.0b%, 12.0k%, .368bip, .348avg, .217iso, 150wrc+
* RF Santander 30 S: 18pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .200bip, .214avg, .286iso, 133wrc+
* LF Springer 35 R: 18pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .200bip, .154avg, .077iso, 91wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 23pa, 4.3b%, 21.7k%, .375bip, .286avg, .143iso, 103wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 25pa, 16.0b%, 16.0k%, .375bip, .350avg, .150iso, 147wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 24pa, 0.0b%, 12.5k%, .444bip, .435avg, .304iso, 209wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 16pa, 12.5b%, 6.3k%, .182bip, .308avg, .692iso, 209wrc+

Everybody doing pretty well really.


And then the actual battles for the last 5 spots:

* C Heineman 34 S: 16pa, 12.5b%, 12.5k%, .273bip, .250avg, .000iso, 80wrc+
* C Sanchez 28 R: 13pa, 15.4b%, 23.1k%, .125bip, .091avg, .000iso, -1wrc+
* C Bethancourt 33 R: 11pa, 0.0b%, 45.5k%, .167bip, .091avg, .000iso, -65wrc+

This probably isn't en actual battle. I think Heineman has the spot sealed. Just not quite taking it for granted yet.


* OF Roden 25 L: 24pa, 20.8b%, 0.0k%, .357bip, .438avg, .500iso, 284wrc+
* OF Lukes 30 L: 24pa, 25.0b%, 12.5k%, .231bip, .235avg, .235iso, 153wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 22pa, 0.0b%, 27.3k%, .533bip, .409avg, .227iso, 170wrc+
* OF Straw 30 R: 20pa, 0.0b%, 15.0k%, .500bip, .474avg, .211iso, 188wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 19pa, 5.3b%, 21.1k%, .286bip, .222avg, .222iso, 75wrc+
* OF Clase 23 S: 13pa, 15.4b%, 30.8k%, .143bip, .091avg, .091iso, 16wrc+


Roden the clear standout at camp so far. Just killing it at the plate in every way. Also interesting enough defensively to get looks in CF - if he can do that then it makes the bench decisions much easier.

Lukes also having a very strong start. Berroa and Straw have shockingly good lines too but you can see from their BBs and Babip that it's probably nothing too interesting. Loperfido not great at the plate so far but only a hit or two away from being decent. Clase was injured to start.


* UT Schneider 26 R: 26pa, 30.8b%, 19.2k%, .500bip, .389avg, .333iso, 234wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 22pa, 9.1b%, 31.8k%, .500bip, .350avg, .200iso, 150wrc+
* UT Stefanic 29 R: 21pa, 19.0b%, 19.0k%, .385bip, .313avg, .000iso, 110wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 18pa, 11.1b%, 33.3k%, .444bip, .313avg, .250iso, 145wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 18pa, 0.0b%, 27.8k%, .308bip, .222avg, .167iso, 48wrc+

Schneider also having a killer start to his spring, 2nd only to Roden. The only glitch on his line here is the babip. I don't know if there's anything he can do to win a spot to start the year but he's doing everything he can.

Barger and Orelvis having very nice springs too but still lots of swing and miss and very high babips. Nothing here to make you think they both couldn't use more time in AAA.

Stefanic is probably a useful bench piece if the others can't step up.

Wagner the only real dissappointment so far in ST for the hitters. If it was an open competition (it;s not) he would be on the back foot right now.


* IF Jimenez 24 R: 24pa,12.5b%, 12.5k%, .235bip, .200avg, .100iso, 76wrc+

The only guy here that can actually play SS, which gives him an opening. But with Clement and Gimenez likely able to handle backup SS duties it's not a huge opening.



It's still true that the big decisions really come down to whether they feel they need to keep "true" CF and SS fielders on the bench this year, or if they think Clement/Gimenez and Springer/Roden/Lukes are good enough to backup in a pinch.


I would say that Wagner is still a prohibitive favorite to make the squad. Roden and Schneider are making it very hard to cut them. The last two spots could probably be best filled by Lukes and Stefanic, but they could choose guys with more defensive chops than them instead.

Schneider seems like an obvious fit for the team, unless the plan is to play Wagner/Roden every day even vs. southpaws.

I must say I felt old watching Homer Bush Jr. batting yesterday.

My memories of Bush were that he was the first player listed for a long time on top of the Yankees and Jays stats sheets ranked by batting order for a few years when the baseball card stats by team used to be published as tables in the Sports section of newspapers.

Barger just absolutely crushed one. He's now having a great spring too. I do enjoy having a lot of hitting depth even if most of it is marginal. Feels like the team could deal with most injuries decently (not 1B or catcher).

backup catcher was definitely something i wish we addressed.

that being said i do like Heineman and think he's probably deserved more opportunity in his career.

Perhaps the Jays are watching the waiver wire coming out of ST for 3rd catchers who are out of options.

Then again, most teams seem to value their catchers having familiarity with their pitching staffs above all else, so plucking someone off waivers and installing them as your backup on the MLB roster for the Opener seems unlikely.

The Jays also really seem to like Tyler Heineman as well, given they cut bait on Brian Serven to bring him back into the org with essentially no time left on the clock last Sept.

Yeasavage is supposed to pitch in the break out game on Saturday.

I could see Barger or Schneider having a good season this year. They've gotten their early-career adversity out of the way and should be more comfortable in the majors in 2025.

I know that Heineman and hitter is an oxymoron but the fact that he's a LHH probably has some appeal too.

His 299pa sample is tiny but even though he's hit a godawful 65wrc+ for his career he's still managed to put up a healthy war somehow (1.5bwar/650, 3.0fwar/650) so all the metrics really really like his defensive contributions.

And i think he's actually a switch hitter, not that the hitting will be a factor.

Well, Heineman actually is a switch hitter, and it's not clear to me whether he is better from one side or the other - he's been better from the right side in the majors, but has had some years in the minors where he's hit better from the left side. Kirk has very small splits for his career. Heineman's switch-hitting probably just makes it a little more flexible for the Jays - no significant reason to try to get a platoon advantage for his starts, less cause to have Kirk pinch-hit for him.

I really like Heineman as a backup: he's such an excellent defender that despite a career 65 wRC+ at the plate, he's been worth 3 WAR/650. If Kirk misses time with injury, you should feel pretty good that Heineman is going to provide some value.

Cole is scheduled to have TJ surgery on Tuesday. The AL East just got more competitive this year.

Cole, Stanton, Gil, Schmidt, Hampton, a few others...the Yankees have been hit hard by the injury bug in the early going.

It's worth mentioning that Cole has been terrific against Toronto over his career:

9-2, 2.75 ERA, 111.1 IP, 80 H, 20 BB, 108 K

You never like to see a guy get hurt, but this helps Toronto in 2025.

In Springer's first 295 PA last season he had a 64 wRC+, and in his final 190 PA he had a 79 wRC+. An amazing July propped the numbers up big time, but he was awful for most of the season. With Roden and Barger's emergence, they can't afford to let him hit like that for a prolonged period of time again. Last season they had the excuse of not having any other internal options. That isn't the case anymore. Hopefully, Barger and Roden continue to look like potential big league pieces as the season progresses, as I suspect both are starting in AAA.

Still worried about the bullpen. There’s a massive difference between having a healthy Swanson, who was elite between ‘21-23 but really fell off, and Dillon Tate. Also, while the Jays top 4 should be a strength, Bowden Francis does not have my confidence. It’s been a pretty good spring other than that, but this team needs a lot to go well for it to be a contender. It’s nice to see the team is embracing a diversified offensive approach, as the last two years were pretty hard to watch. Let’s hope that really benefits older guys like Springer who I can live with as a singles/gap hitter rather than him trying to recreate his Astros years where his power and speed took over.

I’d almost be inclined to explore a trade where we could add more pitching depth through a trade of Lukes or Schneider or possibly even get more for a guy like Barger. As nice as it is to have all those guys as bench pieces or strong AAA depth, we need the pitching more, especially with a meat grinder of an early schedule.

To me, Springer still has the hand eye co-ordination and the wherewithal to be a solid hitter but needs to hit the ball the other way and focus on line drives. His earlier career he was able to get almost everything airborne through sheer athleticism. Now he’s not able to do as much damage, and the last two years he’s been selling out a lot to try and maintain it. I have no inside information or data to back that up, obviously.

Springer's power is to the pull side. Opposite side, he's a single hitter with a low batting average. That's why they pound him the other way. I think he should focus on one side. He shouldn't be hitting clean up.

gotta be honest i'm really not worried about them sticking unrelentingly with Springer if other guys are hitting better.

Sticking with Springer through thick and thin is what scares me more than anything else on the position player side. Depth-wise this might be the strongest the Jays have been in that area in a while given that a lot of their AAA talent probably won't embarrass themselves at the big league level if called upon (some might actually be decent). However, sticking with their $25M man as he continues to decline and internal options are readily available will be extremely frustrating to watch. Like I said before, Springer bouncing back is a big part of this team having any shot at 2025 contention, so give him a shot to see if that's possible, but I have no faith in them pulling the trigger on a replacement if he has a 60 wRC+ through mid-June like last season. This team has a strong affinity for veterans, probably too strong. I'll have to see it to believe it.

Springer is hitter clean up today. He's the only guy not hitting.

I just don't see why anyone would think they'd sabotage the team for Springer's sake. They know the salary is a sunk cost.

I think people are under the mistaken impression that he was one of the worst hitters on the team last year but he wasn't.

Springer is hitter clean up today. He's the only guy not hitting.

The net present value of the Jays' offer to Vladdy was 400-450MM, which was generous of them. If he wants 600MM, he needs to go out and have an MVP season like Judge did.

Apparently, Vlad wants $500M in present value so yeah, that's crazy. Like even if he has an amazing year, it's hard to see anyone giving that to him. Jays made very strong offer above market, Way above what Zips would offer. Vlad didn't take it. It's his right but way more downside than upside for him.

Seems like the Blue Jays made a generous offer and it was refused.

Maybe Vladdy can get $500m+ NPV on the open market. I could see this happening if he stays healthy and has a 6-8 WAR season — superstar-level performance.

If he has a 2-4 WAR season with a nagging injury or two (sore knee or back or wrist), I think he could be back into sub-$350m territory.

At the moment I’m feeling cautiously optimistic about the Blue Jays’ chances in 2025. I’m encouraged by Scherzer’s performance this spring. The team is playing well overall and they have seem to have good depth with players like Roden, Wagner, Orelvis, Yesavage and others.

Could they be better? Yes. They could use another big bat and another leverage arm. Maybe also a front-of-the-rotation SP. But they’re at least interesting. And some of their rivals to make the postseason have been hit with injuries in the early going.

Shi Davidi with one of the most ridiculous passages I've ever read, in his article tonight discussing the 50M impasse:

"In January, the Blue Jays spent about a fifth of that, $11 million, on Myles Straw simply to bolster their attempt to lure Roki Sasaki away from the Dodgers. Guerrero is covered when you combine that with the $2 million they gave reliever Franklin Morales for five appearances in 2016, the $8 million for Jaime Garcia in 2018, the $10 million they ate on Kendrys Morales in 2019 and the 2021 trio of $10 million for a released Tanner Roark, $3.175 million for the released Shun Yamaguchi and $5.5 million for Kirby Yates before his elbow blew out."

That's just dumb. If you add up a bunch of contracts that didn't work it equals $50M? So what? If I add my bad purchases for the last ten years I could afford a nice car. Does that mean I should go buy a nice car or even that I could afford a new car?

There is another kinda dumb thing in the article. Shi suggests Vladdy is worth $500m because his annual WAR production represents a good chunk or Soto’s annual WAR production. But this overlooks that WAR is not linear and an 8 WAR player is way more valuable than a 5 WAR one. You can’t just say, well, a 5 WAR player is worth 5/8 of the 8 WAR player, so you should pay him 5/8 the salary of the latter player. (And this doesn’t even get into the issue that Soto’s contract is very expensive and risky.)

He's absolutely right that the "savings" of not signing vlad will most likely be frittered away on useless signings like this FO has made every year.

If Vlad, Bo, Green, Bassitt & Scherzer walk at the end of 2025 that equals about $90mil off the books. I don't know how much of this significant savings will be spent or how much would be saved. Just guessing about half or so will be saved/spent. This should get the team under the luxury tax level.

With the extra money I would like to see Kirk extended and a Gimenez type trade made. This gives us 2 V good players for 4-5 years. Add in a good reliever and the $45mil spending limit goal is achieved.

No one is talking about the state of the economy and the stock market by this fall. Vladdy is making a bet that the economic environment will be upbeat enough to justify such a package.

Even if the eventual team he lands with is owned by someone or a corporation largely impervious to a recession, they will not want their fans to see them signing huge contracts and so, raising ticket prices, when everyone else is suffering.

With the way the White House is taking a chain saw to the economy AND undermining the long term trust and certainty on which investors and healthy economies depend, I feel sure VGJ will experience lifelong regret however well he plays this season.

I don't think enough of Davidi to comment on his postings.

Schneider was on the mike for half an inning.
Seemed very excited at the prospect of tweaking the batting order every game. Meh.
Said that there's a few battles; 5 guys battling for 2 spots in the pen, the backup catcher.

It seems to me that Yarbrough and Tate have already claimed the 2 spots in the pen.
They probably don't expect Tate to be ready, so there's really 1 spot to claim and good luck holding it.

I don't see a competition for backup catcher.

It looks like Varsho as claimed the DH slot.
He's still optionable, so they could send him down a pseudo-rehab before he returns to the field, but that seems far fetched.
Heineman is the second catcher. Wagner has looked decent at 3rd. He's the defacto backup at 1B.
He's actually played quite a bit of 1B, 2B and 3B in the minors. Clement has said that Wagner's arm is fine for 3B.
Loperfido is probably the CF. It's either him or Straw. I don't think they value Berroa much. Clase is not quite ready.
That leaves a couple of spots.
They could take Straw as a defensive CF/pitch runner.
Schneider would give them a right bat to use off the bench or against a starting lefty.
Roden could be an alternate corner outfield. So could be Lukes.

I'm pretty sure Barger starts in AAA.
Orelvis needs to spend time in Buffalo to make people forget about his suspension.

Varsho isn't a good hitter. If he's your DH, you've done something very wrong.

Scottt, I think it was you who explained the tax implications of the Straw deal to me?  Why do you see Straw winning the spot?
To be fair to Vladdy, he's a young man betting on himself, and I'm certainly not going to feel any schadenfreude if he has a rough year and signs for less than we were offering him.  Part of me hopes he proves the doubters wrong and beats his own ask.  If the team plays well alongside him, we get exciting baseball.  If he's great and the team sucks, he's the biggest trade deadline add available, and we get a nice prospect haul.
Plus, I just like the guy.   

Anyone alive who says they know how Trump's war on the establishment order will play out is lying (not saying anyone here is doing this!) ... this is easily the most unprecedented era of my 51 years on the planet. 

Leaving the DH spot open is the way to go for this team, so guys like Varsho can get ABs while recovering from injury, so regulars can get rest days, so hot youngsters can get a few weeks of regular ABs, etc.  There will likely be plenty of DH ABs for non-traditional DH types. 

I too think it's a dumb take from Davidi, and Ugly, while I almost always agree with you, I'm not sure you take that the FO will just waste the $50 mil is much better.  

I can't see a scenario with Shapiro and Atkins making off season decisions at all for us, barring them actually proving the haters wrong with a strong season on the field.  If we suck, heads will roll. 

I'm actually with them on their max offer to Vladdy being firm.  Their 'best' offer alone makes me nervous. 

Right now, I'm with greenfrog, cautiously optimistic.  I think the opening day roster will be telling - if we don't get the best roster possible, with say a Roden demotion to preserve a 40 man roster spot, I may ditch the optimism, but I finally think this FO is ready to break some bad conservative habits. 

Roll them dice boys!

I can't predict if Straw will win. He's the best defender in CF. He already won a gold glove. He's been hitting, so he could hit in April too. Beyond that, he's expensive for a bench bat. They could probably trade him if they eat his salary.

Varsho looks like the bat they thought they were getting. He's already hit 3 bombs. Maybe he cools down, but until he does, he looks like a legit 30 HR bat from the left side.

Varsho will be the CF for most of the year. If he doesn't get regular ABs until then, he could need weeks to find his timing. It's hard to keep a regular out of the lineup.

He should find his timing in the minors then. There is no good reason for Varsho to DH over better hitters.

I'll take advantage of the off day to do a quick update:


Starter Locks

* SS Bichette 27 R: 33pa, 3.0b%, 15.2%, .360bip, .355avg, .258iso, 142wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 31pa, 6.5b%, 12.9k%, .333bip, .310avg, .172iso, 116wrc+
* LF Santander 30 S: 25pa, 20.0b%, 20.0k%, .308bip, .263avg, .211iso, 146wrc+
* RF Springer 35 R: 25pa, 16.0b%, 16.0k%, .200bip, .158avg, .053iso, 74wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 29pa, 10.3b%, 17.2k%, .300bip, .240avg, .120iso, 89wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 30pa, 13.3b%, 13.3k%, .381bip, .360avg, .160iso, 147wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 19pa, 10.5b%, 10.5k%, .167bip, .313avg, .750iso, 221wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 27pa, 0.0b%, 14.8k%, .450bip, .423avg, .308iso, 201wrc+

Bench Locks

* C Heineman 34 S: 16pa, 12.5b%, 12.5k%, .273bip, .250avg, .000iso, 80wrc+



Competition for the remaining 4 slots, in order of playing time this spring:

* UT Schneider 26 R: 27pa, 29.6b%, 22.2k%, .500bip, .368avg, .316iso, 219wrc+
* OF Lukes 30 L: 26pa, 23.1b%, 15.4k%, .214bip, .211avg, .211iso, 131wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 25pa, 20.0b%, 4.0k%, .357bip, .412avg, .471iso, 266wrc+
* IF Jimenez 24 R: 24pa, 12.5b%, 12.5k%, .235bip, .200avg, .100iso, 75wrc+

* UT Barger 25 L: 23pa, 8.7b%, 30.4k%, .500bip, .381avg, .333iso, 191wrc+
* OF Straw 30 R: 23pa, 4.3b%, 13.0k%, .500bip, .476avg, .190iso, 192wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 23pa, 0.0b%, 26.1k%, .500bip, .391avg, .217iso, 156wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 23pa, 0.0b%, 26.1k%, .313bip, .227avg, .182iso, 67wrc+

* IF Stefanic 29 R: 22pa, 18.2b%, 18.2k%, .429bip, .353avg, .000iso, 125wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 22pa, 4.5b%, 22.7k%, .250bip, .190avg, .190iso, 47wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 20pa, 10.0b%, 35.0k%, .400bip, .278avg, .222iso, 117wrc+
* OF Clase 23 S: 14pa, 14.3b%, 28.6k%, .125bip, .083avg, .083iso, 5wrc+

I'm not going to argue too strenuously about Varsho at DH, but it is funny to note that Varsho probably outhit most of those "better hitters" last year. And if you're looking at their AAA stats, Varsho's AAA stats are probably better than all of theirs, and by a lot.

Anyways Varsho has been hitting for a couple weeks now, and has been throwing at over 100 feet for at least a week now. He might not be ready to field in 2 weeks from not on opening day but it won't be long after i don't think.

Varsho has a lower career OPS+ than Schneider, and a lower projection than Wagner, Roden, and Barger.

The team would be well served by giving Schneider some early ABs if Varsho isn't ready to play CF.

Using Varsho as the DH makes very little sense - if he can't play the field he offers very little. There are likely to be days where there are already multiple "excellent defenders but black holes in the lineup" like Heineman, Gimenez, Straw etc. I'm hoping that they use some ABs early in the year on Roden as an opportunity to see if there is an upside offensive player there.

I don't like Varsho at DH either. Having him miss a couple of weeks to get field ready isn't the end of the world. Would much rather have Roden DH in that scenario, or Roden in CF if you can live with the defense and someone like Barger/Wagner at DH.

eh getting him some at bats while injured is probably a good idea.

Last year:

* Guerrero 697pa, 165wrc+
* Lukes 91pa, 132wrc+
* Santander 665pa, 129wrc+
* Wagner 86pa, 125wrc+
* Jimenez 210pa, 102wrc+
* Varsho 513pa, 99wrc+
* Springer 614pa, 95wrc+
* Clement 452pa, 94wrc+
* Kirk 386pa, 95wrc+
* Gimenez 633pa, 83wrc+
* Schneider 454pa, 80wrc+
* Bichette 336pa, 71wrc+
* Barger 225pa, 70wrc+
* Stefanic 124pa, 63wrc+
* Loperfido 144pa, 61wrc+
* Heineman 13pa, 45wrc+


Projections:

* Guerrero 152
* Santander 126
* Wagner 117
* Bichette 116
* Kirk 114
* Roden 110
* Springer 108
* Gimenez 106
* Schneider 106
* Lukes 106
* Barger 105
* Varsho 102
* Jimenez 102
* Clement 98
* Loperfido 91
* Heineman 76


He's right there in the same general vicinity of a bunch of other guys (most of whom aren't much younger than him despite being consirdered prospects).


I also just noticed that Varsho has been on of our better hitters vLHP (117wrc+ 2nd only to vladdy amongst regualrs) since he got here.

There's probably enough logic to give him some DH looks in some matchups in the short time before he can play the field rather than benching him or demoting him.

No chance Varsho gets demoted, and it's still ST, so worrying about an injured guy DHing till he is cleared to play the field seems odd.  I could see him DHing once or twice a week in the regular season to give his arm a rest, rest days, or a DL stint even.  He is not going to be DHing more than occasionally in the regular season.
Good point about Varsho's age, Ugly.  He's had a pretty odd career path, but with that glove, he's one of the guys I'm counting on the most next season. 

I would be fine with Varsho getting some DH PA in the early going.

We might actually see some benefit to Varsho playing a shorter season in CF this year due to the delayed start in the field. Less wear and tear on the turf might lead to better performance later in the season and in the postseason.

I've never paid a lot of attention to the different projections, but in looking at Varsho I am a little curious how ZIPS is the only one to project him to be elite defensively this season. Did the other systems think his rehabilitation included an amputation?

I'm seeing Varsho as DH for a week to start if he isn't 100% yet, then full-time CF. Quite frankly I'd be shocked if the Jays didn't do that if his arm isn't ready. He is a solid 100 OPS+ type hitter overall, which is poor as a DH but for a week or two it won't make a difference but could keep his bat at 100% as his arm gets ready for a full season.

As to the rest of the season it'll be very interesting to see what the Jays do for the bench. Do you put a full-time player there to get DH/in the field PA's regularly or just spare parts? 4 slots plus backup catcher. Schneider seems a near lock for one slot (2B/LF/DH), with Lukes likely the 26th man, Roden if they want someone playing nearly everyday, Wagner has had a rough spring but slowly getting better (OPS up to 670 now) and the club seems to believe in him. Berroa has cooled off (avg dropped from 500 to 391 - he had to hit around 500 to force the Jays hand), Straw still hitting well (476/478/667) but has faced weak competition (6.6 quality before today - below AA most others in the 7's with Loperfido at 8.1 but hitting poorly 608 OPS).

Btw, yes, it is spring but right now the Jays are 4th in total runs scored in MLB (despite playing 18 games vs others as high as 21), 5th in OPS. Promising at least. The O's are 23rd in OPS, Rays 18th, Yankees 7th, Red Sox 3rd. 18th in ERA vs Yankees 5th, Rays 6th, Red Sox 28th, O's 30th (ouch). Gotta think O's fans are starting to get nervous at this point despite it 'just' being spring.

Gimenez has no splits. He shouldn't sit more than Bo. Santander will play every day and Springer won't sit against a left bat. There might not be a lot of ABs for Schneider.

True enough - the entire bench will be mostly used for DH time - be it to be the DH or to cover the field for someone else being the DH (mainly Vlad, Santander, and Springer with Varsho and Bo getting some DH time too I suspect). Kirk I doubt will get much DH time due to the poor backup this year vs the last few years. Clement or Giménez at DH is wasting their main skills, same for Varsho, but early on he'll need some DH time until his arm is fully ready for CF. So if Roden is on the team he'll probably get the bulk of DH/cover the OF time. Schneider will be begging for playing time as will anyone else on the bench. Thus why I see Lukes as the likely 26th man along with Stefanic - 2 guys who can sit 9 out of 10 days without it being an issue. Schneider they'll try to bring in vs LHP with Roden or Wagner mainly seeing RHP. If it is Wagner on the bench instead of Roden then he'll go in for any IF taking a DH day off (3B/1B, covering 3B when Clement covers SS for Bo, the odd day off Gimenez gets) with Schneider being mixed in there and in LF/RF while Lukes gets CF to himself. Stefanic will mostly PR or come in when the score is a blowout to give guys a few innings off I suspect. Those last 2 spots will probably get 100-200 or so PA combined (Lukes & Stefanic) with the lack of platooning/rookies outside of DH.

A Wagner/Schneider platoon is possible with Schneider pinch hitting for Wagner or Gimenez when the Jays are trailing late. It's still not a lot of ABs.

Playing time is important for younger prospects but for guys like Roden, Schneider, Wagner, etc... who are older, get them to the majors even if they aren't playing everyday. Generally would much rather have Barger/Roden in the majors than Stefanic/Lukes.

My main reason for saying Stefanic/Lukes for the end of the bench is they would get nearly no playing time and vets tend to handle that best. Being able to come in cold and do the job, often pinch running for a catcher or defense. Roden would be wasted in that role - I'd rather he played everyday in AAA to be ready for an injury.

New thread is up for the second half of spring training.