For all of these teams I think one should consider the FA as lost even if the FA haven't signed anywhere. Once they are no longer on the team there is little difference between re-signing and signing elsewhere. Even QO for those players with those attached are basically the same (when you re-sign you lose the pick that you would have got if someone else picked your QO player; when you sign someone with QO not with you, you lose a pick). It is true that if you re-sign someone that brings you back to your last year baseline (so goes to retained which should be zero net to last year) while signing someone new is an added plus to last year's backlog, but I think that is still handled by treating all FA lost as negative (unless resigned).

So if you net all of these across signed, removed, traded, and FA (with retained being a zero if we are baselining from last year, and FA re-signed moving from a negative to a retained 0) you get:

Jays: -3.5/-3.3
NYY: -4.6/-5.4
Bos: -5.7/-7.5
TBR: -0.4/-0.3
Bal: 4.5/-0.9

Basically this is where each of these teams would be if they stopped their offseason now and went with their teams as is. This probably slightly underestimates teams as this analysis doesn't really track non-traded prospects that could be promoted, as maybe some young guy that is expected to contribute could fill some of these holes, but basically you can see the Jays still need at least one major piece - which makes sense when you see the Bo/Tucker/other? sort of comment, and a couple of minor bullpen pieces might help round out too. The Yankees and Bos likely need a couple of pieces still (unless the prospects are ready). Bal and TBR could start the season now as is and be fine. At least if you think their last year was a fine year.

I have to believe that the deal Bichette is seeking isn't palatable to most teams, including the Blue Jays or maybe the Jays believe a deal with Tucker would be more productive long term with a view towards Bo's injury history. That being said, Tucker hasn't been injury free either.

You would think that if Bichette loves playing on the Jays, and having a chance to sign on a, hopefully, playoff team, he might take a little less to stay in Toronto.

Michael, good point there. Instead of treating unsigned FA as neutral putting them as negatives. Didn't occur to me when putting this together, but makes sense. The Rays thanks to not letting guys who are upcoming free agents stick around unless they expect to go deep helps them a lot here, but in the end the projected 2026 numbers are all negative in the AL East. If the Jays sign Bo or Tucker or Bregman they go positive, Yankees and Red Sox need a few signings to get to the positive side of the ledger. O's and Rays right there but both need to add a LOT of wins for 2026.

Of course, it is impossible to guess who will get a shot if player xyz isn't signed, or how much it'll help/hurt right now. I figure in February sometime I'll take late projections (ZIPS or something) and do an estimate of WAR from that, but adjust for expected playing time (ie: full-time for Barger, Clement unless the Jays blow the budget out of the water and sign Bo & Tucker or do major trades).

Right now the projection is Steamer which isn't the best, but is available immediately and is free (2 good features right now). It has the rotation for 2026 as Cease 3.8 (32 GS), Gausman 2.8 (31 GS), Bieber 2.5 (26 GS), Yesavage 2.1 (32 G 24 GS), Ponce 2.3 (38 G 24 GS), Berrios 1.0 (46 G 16 GS), Tiedemann 0.4 (21 G 5 GS), Francis 0.3 (30 G 2 GS). So roughly 13.5 fWAR for the core 5 then 1.7 more for the spare parts (including their relief games). In 2025 the Jays got 8.5 fWAR from the starters (23rd), 15.2 would put the Jays in 3rd place in MLB (#1 in AL) for 2025. So yeah, they improved the rotation significantly. Going into 2025 Steamer had the Jays with 9 starters, from Gausman to Adam Macko. Gausman 32/3.0, Berrios 32/2.0, Bassitt 31/2.2, Francis 26/1.6, Scherzer 21/2.1, Rodriguez 11/1.2, Bloss 5/0.1, Manoah 2/0.1, Macko 2/0.0. Net 162/12.3 which would've put them 11th in MLB instead of 23rd. 15 starters used in reality. How off? Gausman 0/+1.1, Berrios -2/-0.6, Bassitt 0/+0.2, Francis -12/-2.4 (ouch!!!), Scherzer -4/-1.7 (ouch), Rodriguez -10/-1.3 (ugh), Bloss/Manoah/Macko not used, instead Lauer/Bieber/Lucas/Yesavage/Urena/Schultz/Turnbull/Fisher/Varland were 37/1.2 - lots of starts, not great results.

Clearly the killer for the rotation was Francis, Scherzer, and Rodriguez not doing as expected (Yariel barely started instead of being a decent #6 type). Lauer was a 'wow' find, Bieber a nice surprise trade, Yesavage was 'holy crap!!!' the rest were openers (Schultz/Fisher/Varland) and retreads/faint hope (Lucas/Urena/Turnbull). Lauer lands under 'faint hope' as I doubt anyone saw his season coming. Trades added 7/0.3 (Bieber), openers 4/0.0, faint hope 23/0.5. The #6/#7+'s weren't a problem then, it was putting faith in an old starter (Scherzer who added in other ways seen in the playoffs) and Francis (a kid who had a 'wow' 2nd half in '24 but didn't have that insane BABIP luck in '25). What could kill them this year? Faith in a kid (Yesavage) and a guy coming from Korea (Ponce), plus a guy recovering from TJ (Bieber) who might still be hurt. Ideally the #6/beyond can provide more than 0.8 fWAR if needed for 23 starts this year. Trades, who knows if those will happen or not and what will be available.

Oops, forgot Lauer in the 2026 projections - 50 G, 2 GS 0.3 fWAR upping the figure to 15.5 fWAR which would still be 3rd in 2025, #1 in AL.

the mlb insiders are saying the obvious - that we're in hard on both Tucker and Bo and will be to the end.

Buck says he knows Bo really wants to stay.


I kinda wish the Jays had just prioritized Bo from the start - he's the one who has lots of reasons to want to be here in particular, and not prioritizing him has inevitably created a smidge of disrespect that hurts our bargaining position and even our chances of landing him. Meanwhile, getting Tucker here was never anything more than a longshot (odds against the field, that is), so they may have put them in a position where they lose out on both even if they have very good bids.

Bo's agent is demanding xyz and nobody is offering that at this point.
Nothing about disrespect.

Take Encarnacion for example.
The Jays offered 4/80M and his agent asked for more.
He ended up with 72M, including a buyout over the same 4 years.

He's been back in the organization ever since, so there's no disrespect felt.

It seems misleading to compare the guys who were there at the end of 25 to those at the start of 26.
They started 25 with Francis pitching his way out of the rotation and Scherzer not being able to toe the mound.
They have 6+ solid starting options right now with better fallback options than what they had a year ago.

It's the same with the pen. Barnes, Lovelady and Chad Green made the team.

All depends on what one is checking up on. I was checking where the Jays (and AL East) were at the end of '25 vs where they are now. Basically seeing what kind of winter they are having. Was surprised the Red Sox are just spinning wheels so far as it seemed like they did more than that. Often deals will end up looking like net 0 initially otherwise the deal wouldn't be made by one side or the other. Sometimes net 0 can work out - you clear out a glut and fix a need - see Jays a few years ago with Moreno for Varsho - might be a net 0 in the end, but both teams benefited by filling a hole with excess they had elsewhere.

Tyler Rogers signing is made official by the Jays. Justin Bruihl DFA'd.

The Braves have signed Kim, apparently to a 1/$20m contract.

I already called the Bruihl move as he was the obvious guy to cut.

Kim signing with Atlanta takes away one possible destination for Bichette.
They're not giving Kim 20M to sit on the bench.

There's the World Baseball Classics in March.
Guerrero has announced that he's playing for the DR.
Berrios is certainly playing for Puerto Rico which is hosting one of the 4 pools--the one with Canada in it, I believe.
I heard he's already enrolled Diaz.
Will Kirk catch for Mexico or will it be Brandon Venenzuela?

With Bruihl gone, or demoted to AAA, wonder who is next off the 40 man? Lazaro Estrada maybe? Paxton Schultz? Bowden Francis has to be on thin ice too but I can't see them putting him on waivers just yet. Leo Jiménez could be (0 options) if they plan to use someone else as the utility infielder or expect to sign Bo or Bregman.

There's no room for Jimenez if they add a position player. Either they DFA him now or they wait until opening day. There are arguments for either case.

Eight outfielders is a lot, nine with Barger... one probably goes before a reliever with options... probably Jonatan Clase... they might be able to get a low level reliever type for him.

The first to go are probably the guys without options.
Leo Jimenez heads the list.

For the relievers, somebody will be dropped at the start of the season but they might want to see how guys pitch in the spring. I don't think we'll see the 2 rule 5 guys make the team.
Nance might need an injury to someone else to make it.

Clase might have more values down the road, maybe as someone to trade at the deadline.

Clase was optioned in 2022, 2023 amd 2024 but I just looked it up and he was granted a fourth option. Still, he's behind Loperfido, Schreck and possibly Pinango on the depth chart where as Jimenez is the only backup /bench infielder right now pending other moves...

"You would think that if Bichette loves playing on the Jays, and having a chance to sign on a, hopefully, playoff team, he might take a little less to stay in Toronto."

Bichette has watched the Jays pursue the likes of Ohtani and Soto, sign Guerrero to all the money, and entice FAs like Santander, Cease, and Rogers with large contracts over the last couple of seasons. There is zero reason for Bichette to offer a hometown discount just for the sake of it. That doesn't mean the market won't dictate a contract less than what he may have hoped for, but if the Jays do not sign Bichette, it will not be because they suddenly ran out of money.

It wouldn't surprise me if a delay in getting Bichette resigned has more to do with the fact that he is trying to explore SS options, whereas I suspect the Jays have now floated a permanent move to 2B.

The delay could also be that Bichette stands to benefit from an expanded market once Tucker signs (and the losers look elsewhere for a bat). Just like Bellinger/Boras is waiting.

I don’t really see Bo caring about staying at SS that much. He knows he's not very good there defensively. He would probably enjoy playing at a position where hia defense would likely be a positive impact instead of a liability.

So when are Bo and Tucker going to sign? My guess is January.

I wonder what the advantage is for waiting too long.

If they wait too long they're likely going to miss out on the chance to join the best teams.

I think they are both waiting to hear back from the Dodgers who are looking to unload some contracts like Teoscar. Can the Dodgers make room to sign Tucker to a big short term AAV and will Tucker accept? After that decision then Bo... will he do a shorter term deal with LAD? I believe they will sign one of these players.

Sign Bo to play SS and move Mookie Betts to OF
Sign Tucker to play OF and keep Betts at SS

McDaniels at ESPN has just updated their contract projections:

Tucker 11yrs x $38m
Bellinger 6yrs x $30m
Bregman 6yrs x $30m
Bichette 5yrs x $30m

Here's linkage to the McDaniel piece with the insanely lowball prediction for Bo's contract. I don't know how you call a guy injury prone when the one last season came from not ignoring a bad send from his third base coach, but it's an opinion.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47314902/mlb-free-agency-2025-26-updated-contract-projections-tucker-bregman-bichette-bellinger

Those projections are crazy. Sign Bo yesterday if those prices are anywhere close to accurate projections.

No kidding. That's even better than the 8/208 projected earlier.

for the record ESPN's original projection for Bo was 5yrs x $26m.

I like Tucker more than Bo but at those prices, taking Bo in a heartbeat. I just can't imagine a world where a Tucker makes that much more than anyone else. I think Bo gets more and Tucker gets less. The market seems weird. Like a handful of teams for all the hitters. Like who is in on Bo and Tucker now? Dodgers I guess. Maybe a couple more on Bo like Red Sox but they are also chasing Bregman and if they don't get him, who is the market for Bregman? Just very few teams willing to spend.

At 5 years I'd be good with that for Bo. No way I go 6/$30 per for Bellinger as there is a good chance Schneider outhits him (as he did last year in fewer PA).Tucker at over $400 mil is too much, $350 I could see but not over $400 unless the Dodgers/NYY/NYM get into a bidding war.

If Bo is willing to take 5/$30 I think he'd already be signed. I doubt he signs for that, and if he does, it will be a very late signing I'd think.

They finally added some left bats last year and they almost won the World Series.
Still, the OPS+ for their left bats during the season was 122, 105, 100, 66 and 57. (Varsho, Barger, Lukes, Gimenez and Santander).
And Varsho only had a .284 OBP, far from perfect as we saw with the IKF play.
Think of a left bat at the top competing with Springer and Guerrero instead of having guys more suited to hit in the bottom of the lineup.
It's quite tempting.

Clement is the backup at SS. They just need a guy who can play 2B.
I'd rather carry Davis Schneider than Jimenez.

2025: 113wrc+ vRHP, 111wrc+ vLHP
2024: 105wrc+ vRHP, 87wrc+ vLHP
2023: 105wrc+ vRHP, 110wrc+ vLHP
2022: 119wrc+ vRHP, 115wrc+ vLHP
2021: 111wrc+ vRHP, 116wrc+ vLHP

Murakami had to sign by December 22 so I assume that will change some things as well. Jays are rumoured to be interested but just can't understand why unless they think he can stick at 3B.

I'm wondering if the Jays think Murakami can handle LF or RF perhaps. With his 80 power the potential is scary. But his swing and miss is also scary in a bad way. Since he plays 3B odds are he has a decent arm so the OF should be something he can do. As a LH power hitter he'd fit nicely in the lineup potentially. But the risk is high with him. But the Jays also want to make inroads in Japan and he'd be a clear way to do that. Sign him and Bo and you have a very full team with crazy potential for offense for a long time. If he can stick at 3B then leave him there, but with Barger here too you can debate which way to maximize defense/offense with Clement around to cover 3B when a LH is on the mound and/or when you want extra defense.

With Jimenez I only see him making the team if no more IF are added (ie: no Murakami or Bo or Bregman or anyone else). The minute another IF is signed I expect Jimenez to be dumped.

In ex-Jay news Jordan Romano has been signed by the Angels to a 1 year $2 mil deal. Nowhere for him here so I'm glad he is somewhere that he could become a closer again if healthy and productive (LAA have no closer right now).

The Jays have assembled a very deep pitching staff. They probably add a few more minor league FA pitchers. They have a very good D. The only area that has not been improved is the O. I keep thinking about how to improve the O internally if they are unable to sign one of the big FAS or make a trade.

I think Bichette will do better than 5/150 (more years with less AAV), but it wouldn't shock me if he gets less than people would think. He's coming off an injury so it's not even a certainty that he is healthy right now, and no one is going to pay him big money to play SS when he's awful there. Feinsand is reporting that Bo is "starting to tell teams he'd be willing to move to second base", and I think that's probably his best chance to cash out.

Bo turns 28 next season and is a projected 4.0 WAR player, which becomes more likely if he moves to 2B and handles that spot decently defensively. If he costs several years and over $100M less than Tucker, then I think Bichette becomes the more reasonable signing. I can't shake the feeling that Tucker is going to sign with the Dodgers, though.

I can't shake that feeling either because I can't see how the Mets, Jays and one other team (maybe Giants or NYY) aren't already offering him over 400 million and 10 years or so. To wait this long makes me think he wants the Dodgers.

Keller to the Phillies, Weaver to the Mets. Each contract is for 2/$22m.

I’m pleased the Blue Jays added Rogers — even with the extra year, plus the vesting year, and the slightly higher AAV — rather than signing one of those two pitchers.

Excellent question bpoz - weakest spot in '26 almost certainly will be SS with Gimenez lined up for that spot. His D makes up for it, but the O is an issue. It can be helped a bit by using Clement at SS vs LHP and having decent PH on the bench (Schneider) but otherwise it is going to be a hole vs the past when the SS offense was WOW via Bo. Santander is a potential issue if he doesn't rebound, so how is that covered? Right now Lukes/Schneider will be in LF with Santander in RF I'd think (Barger 3B, Clement 2B). So the solution if he doesn't get going is the Jays eating a ton of cash and putting a kid out there maybe - Schreck maybe, Loperfido, Clase also fighting for that first call-up in event of injury/ineffectiveness.

Back to the IF - Kasevich probably the top minor leaguer for call-up but has no offense, all defense, similar to Jimenez who has to stick or be put on waivers. McAdoo at 3B/2B has shown some offense in the past, but hasn't reached AAA yet. Really not much coming up for offense is there? Nimmala and JoJo Parker have potential but are far away still. So for 2026 it almost has to be via trades/free agency imo.

And just like that, Justin Bruihl is a Giant.

Vancouver Canadians: Baseball America’s 2025 Class A Freitas Award Winner

one of AA's best moves

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/vancouver-canadians-baseball-americas-2025-single-a-freitas-award-winner/

Actually Bruihl is a Guardian, in exchange for cash.

Guys often struggle in their first year with a new club.
Gimenez was worth 0.9 WAR in his first year in Cleveland, but 7.4, 5 and 4 the following years.
1.1 in his first year with the Jays, but he had a great series against the Mariners.
He's just 27.

Santander is a streaky player. He can hit below .200 a month and over .300 the next.
He just didn't play enough to get into a groove.
I would just leave him down in the batting order to take some pressure off.
He's a guy who can carry a team when he gets hot.
He hit 13 HR in June 2024.

The middle of December...is it the slowest time of the year for baseball fans?

Dang, wrong "G" team. I guess this means we'll trade for him in a month or two..

It does feel like Cleveland is almost a AAAA team for the Jays at times :)

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com is reporting that Bo is telling teams he is willing to play second base.

I guess that means no one bit on Bo's "I'm an amazing shortstop" pitch?

Wonder if Bo regrets going public during the season about how much he would love to play for another team while conducting an interview about it in the Jays visitor dugout in Giants Stadium.

The playoff money has been divvied up. The Jays voted 70 full shares and each share was worth $354,000.

I have not seen who received the Jays shares.

My guess is that Tucker knows the Blue Jays have a strong desire for him and also have money to spend. Vladdy held out for more money and got $500m. So Tucker is holding out for a large contract as well.

Bo is waiting to see what happens with Tucker. If Tucker signs with another team, then Bo knows the Blue Jays will be under pressure to sign him and will pay him accordingly. Or he can sign with another team like Boston or maybe LAD, either on a short- or long-term deal.

Jays signing Jorge Alcala to minor league deal. He can hit 100 so exactly the kind of guy I like taking a chance on for some reliever depth.

70 full shares and 15.44 partial shares... Don't ask me who does the math...

The Jays used 24 position players and 35 pitchers.

I hope everyone for whom the money is meaningful gets some.

Alcala is a nice guy to have in AAA ready to be called up. Entering his age 30 season, throws right, no options left, over 5 years service time. So if called up he has to stick or be exposed on waivers. Homers are his weakness, 1.6 per 9 IP lifetime. But as Glevin said he has a good fastball, 97.4 last year on average, was at 98 the year before. Good to have some depth that isn't using 40 man slots until needed.

As to shares, traditionally players are generous to clubhouse personnel who really need the cash - a full share for them could be 3-7 years pay. Most players will get full shares. Sometimes they give shares to major and minor league coaches as well - often partial shares for minor league ones, full shares to major league ones, as I recall reading in the past. So the deep playoff run helps not just Rogers and the players but a lot of other people too.

The Bo situation reminds me a bit of Shawn Green’s back in the day (1999). It seemed clear that Green wanted out, and wouldn’t be returning; but of course that wasn’t the preferred narrative for public consumption. And Jimmy Key, when he was in a similar position, was caught on camera once (1992) saying there was no way he’d be a Jays’ ‘lifer’,

Bo didn’t impress me as a happy camper. So probably best for all parties that he leaves. Unfortunately.

Sad but probably true. Bo said all the right things as did the Jays during and after the World Series, but that can't change the past. Odds are he'd like to be the big guy on a team, not the #2 guy as he has always been here and always would be. It'd be fun if he went to Colorado where he could probably pile up the hits for years with no pressure and be the star for that team, but I doubt he wants to be on a team that will probably not see the playoffs during his career.

We will see what happens. By Monday we'll know one potential alternative - I think that is the deadline for Munetaka Murakami - Mr. 80 power but can't hit a 93+ mph fastball. Kazuma Okamoto also hit well in Japan (210 wRC+ last year) but as always the question is will it translate here? An old rumor (Dec 7th) has the Jays signing him to be a utility guy meaning he'd be in a mix/match with Barger at 3B, Vlad at 1B, Springer at DH, all of which could also affect OF'ers like Santander (LF or RF) who could sit so Okamoto could play at 3B and Barger in RF. Same with whoever is in the other corner normally (as is Lukes/Schneider) - so that could work, giving days off for many players to ensure regular playing time for all. Not the most insane option, and would be a TON cheaper than signing Bo or Tucker (4/$64 mil - $16 mil per the expected rate or over $10 mil cheaper per year than Bo and $15+ mil cheaper than Tucker).

Rumor has it that Matt Strahm will be made available by the Phillies - a LH reliever who has K'd over 10 per 9 IP for 4 straight years, with sub 3 BB/9 for 3 straight. Damn right he'd be sweet here, allow Little to be moved to lower leverage situations where his walks wouldn't be as big a deal (hopefully). 66 games each of the past 2 years, over 50 each of the 2 before that, so his arm is strong enough to be pushed. Sub 0.8 HR/9 each of the past 2 years. I'd love to see him here depending what the Phillies want in exchange.

My intuition is that the Blue Jays would prefer to add Tucker rather than Bo. I’m guessing that the front office is wary of Bo’s injury issues and declining baserunning ability (even if he would still be a good fit because of his very good bat and likely competence at second base). Tucker’s overall two-way game, LH bat, low strikeouts, willingness to be a supporting player rather than a marquee one, etc. seem to fit well with the roster the FO is trying to construct for 2026 and beyond.

The key question is whether Kyle wants to come here (and whether the Blue Jays are prepared to be the high bidder or close to it).

Little is unhittable but throws too many balls.
You don't want hit facing the bottom of a lineup, ever.
He's only good against the top hitters, if he can get them to swing.

The Phillies are contending next year, they're not dumping talent.

Bo is a quiet guy. You don't see him cashing in with sponsorship deals.
Toronto is a good place to be and Bichette lives in Florida during the offseason anyway.

There's been some frustrating moments for him, for sure.
That doesn't mean he thinks the grass is greener somewhere else.

Ultimately, the front office is trying to get the best team they can field and a 5-tool player hitting left in the 2-hole would be really nice.

Where is the front office going to find elite MLB position player talent, if not in someone like Tucker or Bo this off-season? Most of the top position player prospects on the farm are far from the majors (Nimmala, Parker, Sanchez). And the farm system isn’t all that robust (yet), so the Blue Jays aren’t well positioned to trade good prospects for a controllable elite position player. Even someone like Marte, who would cost a lot in players/prospects to acquire, might not be that good and/or durable for that much longer.

I think the front office is going to go hard after Tucker (plan A) and might go semi-hard after Bo (plan B) if Tucker becomes unavailable. 2026 is a prime opportunity to make another run at winning a World Series, and adding Tucker would put them in a good position to do this.

Tucker is a much better fit in every possible way. LHB, power, walks, doesn’t strike out, good base runner, solid defensively. It’s just a matter of what type of contract he’s looking for. Anything with double digit years would be too much, IMO, but that might be what it takes to get it done.

Tucker's older, plays the least important and most replaceable defensive position, and has never had a full season that was significantly better offensively than what Bo did last year.

And apparently will cost double.

A bit of an exaggeration towards Tucker vs Bo.

• Tucker: 4+ fWAR 5 straight years - every season in which he played over 60 games.
• Bo: twice 4+ fWAR in 21/22. Came close in '25 at 3.8 after a 0.3 in '24.
• In '24 both played about half a season (78 G Tucker, 81 Bo) but Tucker had 4.2 fWAR despite that, Bo just 0.3.
• From 2021 Tucker's worst wRC+ is 130. Bo reached 130 once - last year.
• On defense Bo has been a nightmare as we are all aware (below -10 DRS and OAA last year) and will need to move to a new position (with the big ? that represents - he might be good, he might be bad, we can't say for sure). Tucker had a poor year in RF for him - -1 DRS, -2 OOA after a 7/2 year in '24. Lifetime he is a net positive on defense in RF by most measures. The same cannot be said for Bo.
• Baserunning - negative for Bo the past 3 years in a row, positive in all but '24 for Tucker.

So with a 1 year difference in Bo's favor, plus the fact he plays IF vs RF, gives Bo a couple of big pluses. But his horrid defense cuts the positional plus down a LOT. The 1 year is nice, but Bo's injuries the past 2 years have removed all signs of foot speed from him and makes projecting his future a lot darker. I'd love either to be here as both are 120+ wRC+ hitters, but Tucker has 15 points on Bo lifetime (136 vs 121) and while Bo had his best bat year last year, it would've been 5th best for Tucker in the past 5 years.

For me a big plus for Tucker is the LH bat aspect - having him bat between Springer and Vlad would be sweet. Bo there makes it easier for opposing managers - put your best RH reliever in to fact Springer-Bo-Vlad-whoever (if hitting well Santander, otherwise Barger)-Kirk. With Tucker that becomes harder - Springer-Tucker-Vlad-Santander-Kirk-Barger-Clement-Varsho-Gimenez going R-L-R-S-R-L-R-L-L (no one plans around Gimenez but clearly LH come in for the last 4 there, helping Clement and if left in for Tucker they'd be helping Springer).

The Phillies traded Strahm to KC for Jonathan Bowlan.

Initially, I'm not quite sure why the Phillies would sign Brad Keller to a more expensive deal than Strahm and then trade Strahm, presumably to save money, as it doesn't make sense to subtract talent otherwise, for a lesser reliever.

Bowlan was okay as a backend reliever for KC last year and is more controllable than Strahm, but if I was in charge of the Phillies, Id probably have kept Strahm and not signed Keller.

Fit and value are two different things. As I said earlier if Bo costs significantly less in years and dollars (multiple years and hundreds of millions less) then from a value standpoint it becomes more reasonable to bring him back. That doesn't mean Bo is a better fit or player.

As far as positional importance, the biggest contract given to a 2B in the last 12 years was $175M to Semien. He was coming off a 6.0 WAR, 45 home runs, and +11 DRS/+6 OAA at 2B when he got that contract. Outfielders have gotten much better contracts over that span. Bichette having to market himself as a 2B (a position he played for about 15 seconds) because teams aren't valuing him as a SS is very telling of what the market thinks of him. Coming off a knee injury that may or may not have healed yet, combined with "slower than Vlad" sprint speed that is getting worse every year, it's going to be a hard sell on a long-term deal for him unless a team really loves the bat. On one hand, that might make him the better value play, especially if Tucker wants too much, but that doesn't mean the team is better off with Bo at 2B rather than Tucker in RF. Cost/term makes this an argument, not talent/fit. If Bichette was a FA who played his entire career in Boston, and Tucker was a homegrown Blue Jay testing free agency for the first time, then would the argument be the same?

Tucker’s ceiling is probably higher because of the broader skillset. He could conceivably post a 6-8 WAR season in 2026 if he stays healthy. That’s not going to happen with Bo. Tucker’s floor is probably higher, too (although their respective floors are probably not that far apart).

Sports Illustrated:

"I would not give long-term money to somebody who doesn't burn to play. That's a mistake," Sherman said. "...That's one of the questions I wonder about Kyle Tucker. Does Kyle Tucker burn to play? I know Cody Bellinger burns to play. I think there are some questions about the motor and the desires of somebody like Tucker that have been expressed to me by organizations."

Yankees spin, or something more? Maybe he doesn't even like baseball, like Adam Dunn.

The fact that we know Bo can mesh with this very good team we have here on and off the field is something strongly in his favour, not a weakness. Paying big money for someone from outside the organization who we don't know can fit is always a risk.

And again, while we have oodles of quality depth to fill in corner OF spots in case of injuries or poor play, we have no cover for the IF spots. We're already starting a guy at SS who hasn't hit in the regular season for years now, with injury issues to boot, and then the other middle IF is a league average bat at best who becomes a big concern with even a small dropoff at the plate. And the current setup already has us depending on Barger being a fulltime 3B now and his defense there is also suspect. Any injury or drop in performance from either of them and suddenly there's a very large hole in the lineup.

And signing an OF would also mean losing one or more of Schneider Lukes Jimenez for nothing.

What tends to get lost in the Bo/Tucker discussion is the probability of Springer defying the aging curve last season. Hopefully, Santander can pick up some slack, but adding Tucker would provide a safety net there.

If Bo is open to doing the type of deal Bregman did last year, then I think he comes back. Otherwise, his declining speed and damaged lower half carry not insubstantial downside risk.

Tucker is more of a mystery. The talk earlier in the offseason was about how good a character guy he is -- we've passed the window where guys get overpaid (save Harper with the Phillies). Perhaps it's time for the unnamed sources to spread the FUD to try to get him to sign a short deal.

Shane Baz is being traded from Tampa to Baltimore for a load of prospects.

Word is Semien and Seager butted heads and that’s why they traded him. Supposedly Semien is a workaholic and Seager is..:not. Pillar came out of Dallas last year saying the clubhouse was awful. Interesting stuff.

I don’t see the wisdom in paying Tucker that much money if you could sign Bo and Bellinger for the same (or close enough) amount. Especially when Bellinger still can play the outfield and sub Vlad at first. Tucker’s defence keeps declining and I’m not sure where he goes once he’s unplayable in the field on a team already with Santander and Vlad rostered for the near future and which might lose Varsho after this year. The Jays could go from running three CFs and the best outfield in baseball to the worst very quickly.

Realistically, the infield depth is going to be subpar even if they brought Bo back. That's just an area they don't have much depth in the upper minors. Signing Bo would likely involve losing some of that limited infield depth, as there would be no spot for Jimenez in that scenario who is out of options. With Tucker that keeps a logical bench spot open for Jimenez (who projects pretty decently for a 2B/SS with 95 wRC+ projection), and if Fangraphs is right and Lukes has an option remaining, then the Jays can possibly figure out a scenario where the OF depth is unchanged (dumping Loperfido in that scenario would make sense). Either way, Lukes had a 89 wRC+ in the 2nd half and 90 wRC+ in the playoffs as a 31 year old journeyman. I don't think losing him should be considered a deterrent to upgrading an OF spot, especially if you're getting a player with Tucker's floor/ceiling.

I've said before, I can't shake the feeling that Tucker to the Dodgers is more realistic than some might think, even if it's a shorter term deal, so I'm at a point where as long as it's one of Tucker or Bo, I'll be fine with it. If it's neither, then that's when we should probably start worrying.

I'm not sure that it's an option.
Both the Yankees and Mets are in on Bellinger.

It looks like some sort of rebuild from the Rays.
Losing Wander Franco for nothing has had an impact.
They're paying Steven Matz so they can trade Baz for 2 outfielders, a catcher, a starting pitcher and a draft pick.

It feels like the Rays and Orioles haven't realize that they are in the same division.
The Rays have already inked Cedric Mullins to play CF.

Josh Lowe might be on the move as well.

Agreed SK in NJ. What cuts my fears a touch is the fact only Gimenez projects visibly below average on offense. I really hope the Jays do either Tucker or Bo. Or if they can't then other options - Murakami is off the board by Monday night no matter what, there was a rumor the Jays were close to signing Kazuma Okamoto as a super-utility guy - he'd platoon at 3B with Barger, get time at 1B to give Vlad days off, DH time to give Springer days off, more 3B time with Barger going to RF to shuffle the OF'ers/days off for them. Could work. He did have a 210 wRC+ in Japan last year, 161 the year before, 180 the year before that. So he can hit but as with all Japanese hitters the big question is how well will that translate here?

Other options include Bregman and Bellinger. Each has their own warts, but after those 2 and the options above I don't see much outside of trades that could be an improvement.

The Dodgers are definitely a threat to add Tucker (maybe after finding a way to ship Teo out). They could also add Bichette on a shorter-term contract.

Look at Diaz. Atlanta apparently offered him a five-year contract, but LAD got him on a three-year deal.

On a more positive note, it does seem as though the Blue Jays are now a very respected organization that has appeal to a lot of free agents. It’s just that the Dodgers are sometimes more appealing, at least for some coveted FAs and IFAs.

3B: Clement - Barger - Gimenez
SS: Gimenez - Clement - Bichette
2B: Bichette - Clement - Gimenez - Schneider

is outstanding IF depth, actually.

For the 2026 lineup - Fangraphs has the projected lineup/backups for the Jays as having OPS in 2025 of 700+ outside of Santander (hurt), Gimenez, Jimenez, and Straw (680 last year). Not bad. For comparison...

• NYY: sub 700: 5 - Ryan McMahon, José Caballero, J.C. Escarra, Jorbit Vivas, Oswaldo Cabrera
• Bos: Sub 700: 5 - Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, Marcelo Mayer, Connor Wong, Nick Sogard
• O's: 7 - Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Samuel Basallo, Ryan Mountcastle, Tyler O'Neill, Leody Taveras
• Rays: 8 - Chandler Simpson, Josh Lowe, Cedric Mullins, Carson Williams, Taylor Walls, Nick Fortes, Hunter Feduccia, Ryan Vilade

Suggests the Jays are in good shape - just 4 sub 700 OPS guys, the lowest in the division based on 2025 ML stats.

I too believe TB is doing a rebuild. But through trades for prospects rather than draft picks.

The Jays have learned to improve through minor deals like Braydon Fisher for Biggio. Also signing minor league FAs like Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes. Both are good D with OK O. Nance, Lauer and Little have been useful.

Another under the radar deal was the acquisition of Myles Straw which was widely panned at the time. He was excellent defensively, had some key hits through the season, and his speed caused some errors by the opposition infielders even on routine plays. Also it is said he is a great teammate and a "glue guy" for the Jays.

Good point - who knew Straw would be worth 2.9 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR in part time play? With Varsho missing over half the season that was critical. Between the two of them (Varsho 2.2 fWAR, 2.8 fWAR) you got 5.7 bWAR, 4 fWAR. A 120 sOPS+ for the CF position is damn fine as is the total 113 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR for the CF position last year. Surprised Lukes had 109 PA in CF with a 141 wRC+, Springer a 159 wRC+. If Straw hadn't been acquired Springer might have had to play a LOT more CF which could've led to injuries/being less effective with the bat, or Lukes would've been a lot more exposed (both on offense and defense) by being left out there.

Not to mention that in 5 years we might see some benefits from the $2 mil in international cap space that gave the Jays. Straw was acquired on Jan 17th, on the 18th-21st the Jays signed 18 players according to the Baseball Cube. Players born from 2002 to 2008 (yikes!). Sportrac has its own version of the list with bonus' shown with 50 players listed with bonus' paid of $10k to $2.2975 mil with many bonus' unknown. Over $10 mil available to spend this year, after just over $6 mil the year before, and just over $5 mil the year before that. Given 2026 and 2027 will be lower ($5.9 mil for 2026, a $1 mil penalty for 2027) that could be very good for the Jays future. Hopefully some of those kids will develop.

King Tuck watch is officially on. 👀

this guy is following the 2026 class

https://x.com/NWints30

at least one jays agreement fell through. Yankees lost a big prospect to the Mets.

Positive comment by Eric Longenhagen on a recent Fangraphs chat:

Scott: Any updates available on Toronto’s Jake Bloss post-surgery? He seemed to be moving along through the Houston system before the trade, and then his arm went “boom”…

Eric A Longenhagen: I still loved him

Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’s a 50

Jays apparently interested in Bregman as well. Could be smoke from either side but I do like Bregman more than Bellinger it's just that I think he's going to want like a 6 year deal and he's 31 years old. Anyway, still way prefer Tucker and Bo.

The Bregman rumor seems strategic, either by Boras, the Jays, or both.

Murakami signs with the White Sox for two years, $34 million.

That Murakami deal makes sense for both sides - White Sox get a bit of hope for fans used to no hope, Murakami gets a chance to prove he can hit pitches over 93 MPH. If he plays well he then goes back to free agency in 2 years, still sub 30, able to get a far better deal. If not, the risk to the White Sox is minimal and he goes back to Japan.

It seems like the Blue Jays are trying hard to land a good position player, whether this is Tucker, Bo, Bregman, or Marte.

My speculative take:

The Blue Jays would prefer to add Tucker, who would be the most impactful combination of youth/talent for the team. But they don’t want to wait forever to sign a top position player and potentially be left losing the game of musical chairs. If Tucker is holding out for a very large amount of money, then Toronto is willing to pivot to someone else who would make baseball and financial sense for the team. And it doesn’t hurt to signal this to the Tucker and Bo camps, so that they don’t get too complacent thinking that Toronto will always be a lucrative fallback option for them.

The Red Sox have added Willson Contreras. Boston is improving their team via trade this off-season, whereas Toronto is augmenting their team via free agency.

Right now, Boston might have the best team in the AL East in 2026, when you factor in the MLB roster and farm system strength (which should allow them to make further moves this off-season and next year). The off-season isn’t over yet, of course.

The AL East is just brutal. There are like 10 teams that try to win and 5 are in one division.

I have to agree with Ugly - Bo is the obvious choice, given the price difference between he and Tucker. After the FO ponied up for Vlad, and our playoff run, I see Bo as borderline inevitable.

So interesting to compare this offseason to last. So far this year, everything looks great. Last year, in retrospect, dreadful.

Certainly dreadful for a team that was minutes away from a WS.

The BEST move last year was Straw, and he was a sunk-cost acquisition - Toronto was flexing their financial might absorbing a bad contract in exchange for bonus pool money for Sasaki.

I'm sure the team thought he could help in a pinch, but his rebound was 1 in a 100.

Santander has a chance to be our worst FA signing in history, although I think he's likely to bounce back somewhat.

The more I think about Rogers, the more perfect he seems. I'm okay with no closer-replacement, as long as we have a deep pen.

I have to laud the Jays for their 40 man roster management over the past few years. Increasingly, they treat the 40 man like an active roster. It paid off last year, and I like the marginal moves we are making this year as well.

Currently, I see the two rule five draftees in direct competition with Nance for a spot in the pen. Losers free up 40 man spots. And one or two legit relievers will be starting this season in the minors.

I read more than I post these days, so an early Merry Christmas bauxites.

Plausible best current lineup, with Steamer projections:

1. DH Springer (36): .342obp, 123wrc+
2. RF Lukes (31): .338obp, 109wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero (27): .385obp, 153wrc+
4. 3B Barger (26): .319obp, 111wrc+
5. C Alejandro (27): .354obp, 122wrc+
6. LF Santander (31): .309obp, 106wrc+
7. CF Varsho (29): .294obp, 100wrc+
8. 2B Clement (30): .313obp, 100wrc+
9. SS Gimenez (27): .311obp, 95wrc+

B. UT Schneider (27): .326obp, 105wrc+
B. OF Straw (32): .296obp, 72wrc+
B. IF Jimenez (25): .320obp, 95wrc+
B. C Heineman (35): .306obp, 82wrc+

B. UT Loperfido (27): .293obp, 85wrc+
B. OF Schreck (25): .319obp, 96wrc+
B. IF Kasevich (25): .295obp, 73wrc+
B. C Valenzuela (25): .273obp, 66wrc+

Lineup is definitely one hitter away. Replace Lukes whose 109 projection seems very optimistic with a 130-140 guy and the lineup looks way better.

Lukes has a career 106wrc+. With only a .281babip.

Sorry i screwed up.


Lukes has a projected 106wrc+.

But has a career 109wrc+.

No actually i didn't screw up. I was looking at Santander's page.

Lukes: 106 career, 109 projected
Santander: 109 career, 106 projected

My god i screwed up again.

Lukes: 106 career, 109 projected
Santander: 109 career, 106 projected

Final answer.

Bed time.

Welcome to my world uglyone - so easy to transpose numbers from one player to another. Drives me nuts sometimes. Remember, with Lukes though odds are he'll platoon with Schneider if both are here and no one added to the OF - of course, I can't figure out how they got a 105 wRC+ projection from a guy with a lifetime 109, 127 last year, entering his age 27 season (typical peak year). I'm sure there is a reason for that projection, but I doubt it'll be the most accurate one once things get going. I recall Bill James years ago saying that the 3rd season for a player was often the most indicative of their long term skill. Year 1 the player is learning the league and it is caught off-guard, year 2 they are hit hard by pitchers now adjusting to them, year 3 you see if they can adjust back. A rough approximation which is now much faster with advanced scouting/stats/etc. But Schneider year 1 175 wRC+, year 2 80 (massive correction), year 3 127. What will year 4 produce? If he can produce close to that 127 he will have a heck of a future, but if it is closer to the projected 105 his career could be short or limited.

I suspect in a platoon they both will outperform their base figures. Seeing same side pitchers a lot less than projected thus pushing up their stats. I could see a 110-115 wRC+ from the two of them combined in LF. If Santander can be in RF and produce close to that as well the Jays might be in good shape without Turner. I think the big question for the Jays is which is the bigger concern - Lukes/Schneider or Barger/Clement? Sign Turner and L/S will play a LOT less, sign Bo and Barger/Clement will play less (share 3B with Barger in RF sometimes to give Turner a day off while keeping both Barger & Clement's bats in the lineup). If Turner is signed I expect Lukes to be in AAA or (more likely) traded due to his playing near full time in 2025 (438 PA) plus ability to play all 3 OF positions, thus having some value to a team with a weak OF situation. Schneider would be kept with Straw as he can cover LF/2B and I suspect will be trained at 1B in spring. Straw being a 'wow' defender is a great backup for Varsho (needed with Varsho's injury issues the past 2 years). With the flexibility in the IF having Schneider around is probably all that is needed if Turner is signed (or Bo) since Clement covers SS/2B/3B and Barger 3B with Schneider at 2B, Vlad emergency at 3B.

No matter what this club looks to be well set with backup plans. Critical as kids aren't coming soon from what I can tell outside of maybe Schreck, Loperfido, Clase (all OF) and maybe McAdoo (3B) but I see him as a stretch for 2026. Jimenez will be sent down to AAA most likely, risking losing him on waivers but again, how many teams would claim him with no options left and minimal ML time.

Jimenez will likely get claimed even if it's just to try to pass him through waivers again.

Feels like the Red Sox will probably add another position player in free agency (Bregman or Bichette) or via trade. Which would give them a very competitive roster in 2026. Adding Contreras should improve their offense and defense — a very Blue Jays 2025 sort of move.

Their hole is 3B and they are not particularly strong defensively at SS with Trevor Story.

Since Nathan Lukes was mentioned above, did anyone see the story about the guy who took advantage of an error Draft Kings made, and kept betting on Lukes to get hits in the ALCS. I'm not a betting person so I don't understand the details, but Lukes got 9 hits in the ALCS and the bettor made $934,000 off of this. Draft Kings took him to court saying he profited off a mistake they made, but the courts sided with the guy and made them pay up.

There's an article explaining the Lukes thing at https://nypost.com/2025/12/19/business/draftkings-ordered-to-pay-934k-over-botched-mlb-parlay-bets/

Basically, parlays are when you link bets together to get longer odds like I bet the next coin flip will be heads AND the next dice roll will be 6. Instead of the 1:1 for the coin flip and the 1:5 for the dice roll, you could get 1:11 for the combined bet (assuming a world with no vig/betting house cut). But the trick is if you win one and not the other you get no money. So it sort of lets you run the first bet and then take all the winnings for that bet and bet it on the next bet. If any bet loses, you lose it all. But if all hit, you win a very large return.

Because of some bizarre mistake by draft kings, they let them combine Lukes gets 5+ hits in the series with Lukes get 6+ hits in the series, and 7+ and 8+ hits as 4 separate unrelated bets and then gave the odds for all of them combined. Obviously these are correlated bets where if Lukes gets 8+ hits, he also gets 7+, 6+, and 5+. This would be like betting the dice roll is even, the dice roll is 4 or greater, the dice roll is 5 or greater and the dice roll is 6. Those 4 bets would be 1:1, 1:1, 1:2, and 1:6 and if you could combine them 1:71 that is a $1 wager would win you $71 if it hit even though it will hit any time you roll a 6. When you combine bets that aren't really different, you get the amplification of the returns but not the change in risk.

So that was dumb by the platform, but thankfully for fairness they were still forced to pay (often times casinos and sportsbooks seem to get out of things like this where it is their fault they are betting at disadvantage - see something like the Phil Ivey betting law suit against casinos).

Thanks for the explanation, Michael.

" Remember, with Lukes though odds are he'll platoon with Schneider if both are here and no one added to the OF - of course, I can't figure out how they got a 105 wRC+ projection from a guy with a lifetime 109, 127 last year, entering his age 27 season (typical peak year)."

tbh the projections aren't actually very complicated conceptually. Basically i look at them as if they're just able to look at the back of the baseball card while being smart enough to weigh the numbers by how reliable and projectable they are. They're just a good snapshot of what the career numbers think the most likely result will be this year.

In this case, Schneider had a nice partial season last year but was terrible over twice the sample the year before, and the projections will never be able to ignore that (nor should they).

if you dial down on the Schneider projection you see it's actually pretty consistent with his career line so far, but with one adjustment:

Career: 12.7bb%, 30.0k%, .280babip, .217avg, .325obp, .194iso, 109wrc+
Steamer: 12.7bb% 28.3k%, .281babip, .220avg, .326obp, .176iso, 105wrc+

Basically steamer thinks he'll be pretty much the exact same hitter he's been for his career so far, but with slightly less power - likely because it sees his massive power surge 3yrs ago as a bit fluky.

Interestingly it doesn't see the usual bounce towards league average babip that a projection would usually see, maybe because his AAA babip the past 3yrs was only .310, and babip usually takes a hit when moving up to the bigs.


Meanwhile Lukes' steamer projection is also very similar to his career line, but in his case steamer DOES give him a projected boost towards league average BABIP, likely because he posted near .400babip his last few years in AAA:

Career: 9.3bb%, 13.9k%, .281babip, .259avg, .328obp, .149iso, 106wrc+
Steamer: 8.4bb%, 15.6k%, .308babip, .273avg, .338obp, .134iso, 109wrc+

In his case steamer projects a slight deterioration in his walk rate, strikeout rate, and power, but thinks a likely bounceback in babip will make up the difference.

Yes Lukes has a good projection but I would bet a lot on the under. 89 WRC+ in second half and 90 in playoffs. Pitchers nibbled a lot more in first half and Lukes had great BB%/K rate and a 119 WRC+. In second half and playoffs, pitchers started challenging him because he doesn't hit ball hard. He got a couple of extra HR's and 2Bs in second half but other numbers all fell off. In playoffs, he lost his power completely and became slap hitter who often looked over matched. Maybe he adjusts and gets back to being a league average hitter but steamer has him as improving over last year which seems extremely unlikely.

arbitary endpoint samples are always dangerous. lots of guys have worse 2nd half numbers than 1st, and vice versa, and if that had any real projectability the projections would use it.

Lukes by month

APR 90
MAY 143
JUN 60
JUL 124
AUG 101
SEP 81

No usefulness in ignoring his hot streaks.

And his 90wrc+ in 68 playoffs PA is just a hit or two off league average anyways.

last year the projections pretty much nailed what he was going to do in 2025, and didn't overestimate him due to his 132wrc+ in 91pa in 2024.

Toronto vs Boston steamer hitting projections (with fangraphs' depth charts projected playing time):



1B Guerrero (27): 679pa, 153wrc+ --- DH Anthony (22): 630pa, 122wrc+
DH Springer (36): 595pa, 123wrc+ --- 1B Contreras (34): 609pa, 115wrc+
C Alejandro (27): 495pa, 122wrc+ --- RF Abreu (27): 532pa, 114wrc+
3B Barger (26): 525pa, 111wrc+ ------ LF Duran (29): 623pa, 107wrc+
RF Lukes (31): 462pa, 109wrc+ ------- 2B Gonzalez (29): 294pa, 104wrc+
LF Santander (31): 609pa, 106wrc+ -- 3B Mayer (23): 525pa, 96wrc+
CF Varsho (29): 595pa, 100wrc+ ------ CF Rafaela (25): 644pa, 95wrc+
2B Clement (30): 644pa, 100wrc+ ---- C Narvaez (27): 423pa, 93wrc+
SS Gimenez (27): 581pa, 95wrc+ ----- SS Story (33): 665pa, 92wrc+

UT Schneider (27): 399pa, 105wrc+ -- UT Casas (26): 224pa, 113wrc+
OF Straw (32): 147pa, 72wrc+ -------- OF Yoshida (32): 287pa, 110wrc+
IF Jimenez (25): 238pa, 95wrc+ ------- IF Sogard (28): 210pa, 84wrc+
C Heineman (35): 154pa, 82wrc+ ------ C Wong (30): 218pa, 83wrc+

UT Loperfido (27): 63pa, 85wrc+ ----- UT Hamilton (29): 70pa, 81wrc+
OF Schreck (25): 1pa, 96wrc+ -------- OF Eaton (29): 112pa, 77wrc+
IF Kasevich (25): 1pa, 73wrc+ -------- IF Campbell (24): 147pa, 100wrc+
C Valenzuela (25): 19pa, 66wrc+ ------ C Delay (31): 6pa, 60wrc+​

I would take the under on that Lukes projection, but either way, he's going to be a 4th outfielder next season as long as he's on the team. Either they bring Bichette back (/sign Bregman) and Barger starts in RF, or they sign Tucker and it's Tucker/Santander in the corners. Lukes as a backup is fine, but he absolutely should not be starting in an "if everyone is healthy" scenario, so adding another bat is critical.

My guess is the Bregman stuff is nonsense, but it probably does help the Jays if it puts Tucker/Bo on notice that the Jays are looking at other options.

Yeah, splits can be arbitrary but I also watched pretty much every game last season too and am basing much of my opinion on that. He just didn't look good for most of the second half and in playoffs he looked overmatched. Even if you take his whole year, a team competing for the world series should be aiming higher than a 103 WRC+ platoon corner OF. There's just so little upside there.

I'm thinking we may need someone to replace Santander, rather than Lukes, until he proves he's 100%, or whoever is next in line if Santander can't go - Schneider? Either way, I'm viewing Santander as "tentative" for next year.


Also, John, I assume you got autocorrected or muscle-memory typoed into "Turner" rather than "Tucker" above? I'd hate to think I missed all the rumors and we're eagerly hoping to resign Justin Turner...

The Mets have added Luke Weaver on a 2/$22m contract. I'm glad the Blue Jays took a pass on him. Hopefully the Mets are starting to run out of Kyle Tucker payroll space.

Somehow the Philkies gave Pop a major league cobtract?

Can't wait for Santander to come back healthy and hit 30+ bombs to silence everyone. It's been 1 bad season marred by injury to his shoulder and hips. Using his slow start doesn't apply because he's always been a slow starter.

I'll be happy to see Santander come back happy and healthy and able to play to the full extent of his previous abilities.

IIRC, he still could only hit from one side during the playoffs. Shoulder injuries can linger or never fully heal.

The "he's day-to-day" stuff back when he was basically season-ending hurt was pretty ridiculous, right up there with "Auston Matthews is 100% healthy".. Not sure who was responsible for that, but it was not a good look..

Wow, Pop got a guaranteed contract? That is a surprise. Only 6 2/3 IP last year in the majors, 29 ERA+ over 39 batters. Yikes. 4.19 ERA in the minors for 3 teams over just 19 1/3 IP. Glad for him, but what does that say about how desperate teams are for relief pitching?

Weaver is a solid reliever with 10.0 K/9 vs 2.8 BB/9 last year but 1.4 HR/9 so I'm not horribly sad the Jays didn't get him at $22 for 2. Brad Keller got the same deal from the Phillies 9.7 K/9 vs 2.8 BB/9 0.5 HR/9 following a 2.0 HR/9 season in 2024. He did have that nice 2.07 ERA last year but 4.14 lifetime and 5.44 in '24.

Yeah, that big deal for Rogers looks better by the day IMO.

Oh, and yes, I will type in Turner instead of Tucker sometimes. I normally catch it before posting but... ah well. Tis the season for typos.

Here’s a proposal to complete the Blue Jays offseason (on the offensive side):

1. Sign Tucker (10/$375m)

2. Trade prospects for Brendan Donovan

This would give the team an impact player in the outfield (Tucker) and quality infield depth (Barger 3B, Gimenez SS, Clement 2B, Vladdy 1B, Donovan UT).

Donovan, a LH hitter, hits RHP very well and could start at 2B in many games against them, with Clement available to PH or start at SS/3B if needed. The projections like Donovan for around 550-575 PA and 3 WAR.

St. Louis is rebuilding (they traded Gray and Contreras to Boston) and they seem to want prospects in return. Toronto has a track record of being able to make trades with the Cardinals.

The Mets have traded McNeil to the A's for a 17-year old reliever.
Curious to see what their next move is.

After missing the playoffs by one game, they have made a lot of moves, but it doesn't look like they've gotten any better.

Well the NYM have Tyrone Taylor, Carson Benge and Juan Soto listed as their starting OF according to Fangraphs. Unless you think they will roll out those three then the NYM are likely to sign Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. That would mean either Toronto or NYY lose out on one of those players.

So...

Tucker to Mets

Bichette to Toronto

Bellinger to NYY

And hopefully MLB changes rules so all transactions must be done before Dec 31st so the internet doesn't suck so many hours out of our lives.

Tucker is my top FA target but I can’t wrap my head around double digit years for a 29 year old corner outfielder. I think 7-8 years is fine but anything beyond that, even to reduce luxury tax dollars, is asking for diminishing returns. The Jays went 7 years for Cease so they will clearly give that extra year or two to get the player they want, so we will see. As I said earlier if Bichette costs over $100M less and for fewer years, then that’s probably the direction that makes the most sense. Vlad is a forever player and on a HOF track so you can at least rationalize a 10+ year deal for him, especially given his age. For Tucker or anyone close to 30 that’s not Ohtani, it’s just not a smart move.

But yes, whatever the end result is, just get it over with so we can all move on. Game 7 was nearly two months ago and it feels like barely anything has happened this winter. At least the Jays got some moves in.

Good to see so many trades happening.

I think with any deal that goes past age 35 teams need to be ready to write off those bonus years past age 35. Yeah, Springer is likely to be good at 36 given his age 35 season but betting on good years past 35 is asking for trouble.

So basically, Vlad's $500 mil 14 year deal is a 9 year $500 mil deal with age 36-40 a 5 year bonus as he tries for 3000 hits/500 HR/2000 RBI/whatever he can reach. So they are really paying $55.6 mil a year for him so you want lots of 5 WAR seasons for the deal to work fiscally.

So a Tucker 11 year $400 mil deal would really be a $400 mil for 7 deal or $57.1 mil a year. Cut it to $350 and you are more reasonable at $50 mil but still high. $300 puts you at $42.9 mil per and finally I feel you are at a reasonable figure. Do I see him coming down that far? No. So Bo $208 over 8 covers him to age 35 at $26 mil per. A far, far more reasonable figure. But the question becomes do you think Bo will last that long with his speed dropping almost to Kirk levels in the post-season? I could see Bo lasting a long time at DH potentially ala Springer but doubt the Jays want to entertain that anytime soon.

It is a tough situation. If Rogers has a near unlimited budget then, fine, go for Tucker (LH perfect #2 hitter for this team) but if not then Bo makes more sense (no paying for age 36 and beyond years).

Age on Opening Day

Bichette: 28
Tucker: 29
Bregman: 32

My guess is that no one is giving Bregman more than 5 years (age 32-36). Bichette on a 7 year deal gets him from age 28-34 and and 8 year deal from age 28-35. So Tucker's deal depending on the length may actually be the least optimal from a team standpoint because unless it's a short-term/high AAV deal, then you're likely getting way more mid-late 30's years in there. With Springer at least he was a CF so you were getting a couple of CF seasons before he had to move down the defensive spectrum. Tucker already is a RF/LF. Bichette is also moving down the defensive importance scale as a 2B so that has to be factored in on his deal as well. Tucker would cost the team their 3rd and 6th round picks (though they'd get one back after the 4th round if Bo left). Bo obviously wouldn't cost them anything pick-wise, and neither would Bregman who was QO'd last winter.

It's a tough call. The Jays absolutely need to get at least one of them because each one has a 4 WAR projection for 2026 and they need as many 2026 wins as possible given their window, but it's hard to figure which one is going to age the best on a long-term deal. Each one comes with a certain level of risk. Looking at SD and what they gave Xander in order to 1) get him and 2) reduce the tax burden, is a good illustration of why something like that for Tucker has a chance of backfiring. Tucker's profile seems like it will age well but 10-12 years would be bordering on unreasonable.

If I'm Toronto I drop myself out of running for the player holding things up. If it's Tucker then I pass on him and go try to sign Bo and Bregman. If it's Bichette then I go pony up for Tucker.

If they wait for the player then they will be left fighting the Red Sox and Yankees/Dodgers for Bo or the NYY for Bellinger or others for Bregman.

Good point dalimon5 - might be time to just say 'screw it' and sign whichever of the 3 is most amicable to a deal now. Try to avoid any years post age 35, or write them off in your mind as being just deferred cash. If Bo wants a deal to age 40, then pay him $210 mil, maybe $225 mil so those extra years are basically MLB minimum wage in extra cost, essentially a way to defer the cost a touch and reduce the AAV for tax purposes and guarantee if he has a shot at 3000 hits he gets there as a Blue Jay, same as Vlad.

I only see Bo needing to DH as a problem if he stops hitting, or if he and Vlad both need to DH earlier than expected -ie when Santander would be expected to. If Bo is still hitting but needs to DH, the Jays would be able to trade him for something.

The team can survive without any of the big 3 FA (Bo, Tucker, Bregman), but would be better with one of them. The question is can they justify the cost? Starting in '27 the Jays would be looking at a 50% tax on a chunk of the payroll (20% in '25, 30% in '26, and 50% after that) for going over the luxury tax. Maybe more as who knows what the new CBA will do to that. Owners of 'small market' teams will push hard for the luxury tax to go up higher, perhaps to a 100%+ tax ala the NBA. That makes signing any of those 3 long term a much more iffy proposition.

We know there won't be a hard cap, players will never agree to that, but a higher luxury tax is likely. I could see a new threshold (a Dodgers only one at first) added where it climbs over 100%. The Jays will be working towards it if the club stays in contention with a packed stadium and high TV ratings. So is it worth it to shoot up higher with one of those 3 for 7-8 years? For 11 years? Not my call, that is for damn sure. But if I was Shapiro or Atkins I'd be factoring in whatever has been said in closed door meetings with Rogers executives for sure on that. It all suggests resigning Bo makes the most sense fiscally, fan-wise, and maybe even baseball-wise. Save cash for more pitching when needed, for more hitting if needed. Etc. I'd love Tucker to be in RF but the more I dig the more I think Bo is where the Jays will end up. Unless they know stuff we don't (long term risk).

John I don't think money is an issue for the FO. They're arguably more concerned about spending big and being outperformed by Boston or Baltimore. If they stand pat or lose out on one of the 4 remaining premier free agents then they will be worse since it's most likely that 2 of their rivals will pick them up. If

Bo or Bregman to Boston

Bellinger to NYY

Tucker to NYM

Blue Jays gets worse.

It seems like elite FAs can often afford to wait out the off-season. Even if they end up taking a short-term, high-AAV deal, like Alonso or Bellinger in recent years, they often end up getting a big contract in a subsequent off-season anyway.

For example, Tucker could negotiate a 3/$120m contract with a couple of opt-outs, then try again for a big contract next off-season.

The common denominator among players who do this might be having Scott Boras as their agent.

ZIPS projection for Boston has been posted. Here’s Dan’s summary (and note that at least one more significant addition to the team, like Bregman or Bo, may be pending):

“All told, ZiPS thinks the Red Sox ought to eclipse 90 wins and be seriously in the fight for the AL East title. ZiPS also thinks that Boston has less downside than its competition, and an awful lot would have to go wrong for this team to go back to where it was from 2022-24.”

He also likes the hitters:

“However they got here, ZiPS projects the lineup to be an incredibly solid, deep group, with the weakest spots — second base, third base, and catcher — still projecting to be average or better.“

What was the ZIPS prediction for the 2025 Orioles?

Shapiro recently said that no team is better situated for next few years than Red Sox and I agree. Tons of young talent, one of the few elite starters in baseball, depth to trade, and money to spend if they want to. Biggest challenger to Jays.

The best way for the Blue Jays to try to dominate the competition in a highly competitive division in 2026 is to add two good offensive players. I suggested Tucker and Donovan as a realistic combo (their profiles fit the team’s high-contact “create traffic” approach perfectly), but it doesn’t have to be those two.

The Blue Jays pitching staff is better than Boston's and it's not particularly close in my opinion. Crochet then a big drop off.

The Toronto starting staff is very very strong and the bullpen is at least as good as Boston's with the additions.

If Boston were to add a big bat and the Jays do not then I would feel different. If they still have Devers I would feel different.

Duran
Story
Anthony
Contreras
Abreu
Narvaez
Mayer
Rafaela
Gonzalez

Those first two guys are very streaky, Anthony is good but not a middle of the order superstar like Vlad and Contreras...AL East pitching will challenge him. Now like I said, if Bo is put into that line up or Bregman then the Jays will fall behind without their own big addition.

Springer
Clement
Guerrero
Barger
Kirk
Loperfido
Santander
Varsho
Gimenez

Jays need Tucker for this year and next to be better.

I think you’re underrating Anthony. He’s 21 years old and had a 154 wRC+ in the second half last year — his first season in the majors (71 games). He was basically a 3 WAR player in less than half a season. His Savant metrics (limited sample) are great. If he can stay healthy, he’s going to have an excellent career.

I'm using his entire year, not half a season. I don't project Trey Yesavage to be the best pitcher in baseball...he's going to come down to earth. Anthony will be adjusted to again. Yes, he's very good but so is Jac Caglianone. You gotta be pretty damn good to be a superstar that can carry a team at 21 years old. I don't see it happening.

Saw on Bluebird Banter (yes I go to other blogs and read as well) that today is the anniversary of the Varsho for Gurriel and Moreno deal. A very even deal it turned out, Varsho 11.3 bWAR vs Gurriel 2.9 (year one all that was guaranteed as he was a free agent after that) & Moreno 8.5 bWAR = 11.4 for gone for 11.3 coming back. Can't get more equal than that - both teams have been to the World Series, both have had fun years and bad years. 1 more year of Varsho as part of the deal officially, 3 more Moreno suggests Arizona should 'win' the WAR battle but, yeah, this is as even a deal as humanly possible.

Say, if money was really no issue then maybe the Jays should go whole hog and sign Bregman, Bo, and Tucker. Now that would be making the division go coo-coo.

Springer-Tucker-Vlad-Bo-Santander-Bregman-Varsho-Kirk-Gimenez with a bench of Barger-Clement-Straw-Heineman with Schneider-Lukes-and others in AAA (yes, both have options left). Now that would be a monster. However, anyone with a passing knowledge of economics knows it won't happen. 1 of the 3 would be great. 2 would be insane. 3 impossible. I'm thinking the Jays want Tucker but his demands are just too high even for the Jays budget right now, and the Mets/NYY/LAD are also refusing to meet his demands. Bo is waiting to see where it goes, Bregman knows if he waits someone will crack. Boston, Toronto both NEED one of the big 3. Dodgers would like Bo or Tucker, not critical but a 'want to have'. NYY could use Bo or Bregman with Tucker or Bellinger being their goal right now. NYM need to make a splash soon - mandatory in NY - Bellinger, Tucker being their top choices, then probably Bregman with Bo a 'we failed to get anyone else' choice for them (Semien and Lindor up the middle). Boston wants Bregman back, but Bo could fit in, I don't see Tucker or Bellinger fitting easily there. So a mish-mosh right now of who goes where and someone is going to end up without a big free agent. Tucker-Bo-Bregman-Bellinger are the big 4 and the NYY/NYM/LAD/Bos/Jays all want one but at least one of those teams won't get one of the 4 despite deep pockets.

I'm changing my mind. Sign Bo.

Teams always have the option of waiting till the trade deadline to add a bat, the way Seattle did last year (when they added Suarez and Naylor). Those moves very nearly propelled them to the WS — although only Naylor was a strong performer for them. At some point you have to back away and say “this move doesn’t make sense at this price point.”

I still want to see the Blue Jays add Tucker, Bo, Kwan or Donovan, though.

Anyone else getting the impression that Tucker, Bo and Bellinger are all getting low-balled at this point and will have to wait until February for an old schooler like Dombrowski to free up cash to do a long term deal?

Just a bit strange at this point to see the top 4 hitters still available with big clubs like NYY, BOS and NYM sending out clear messages that they don't want to spend at the top end of the market. LAD seem stuffed...perhaps Tucker, Bregman, Bo and Bellinger are just facing some tough love and all of them will have to accept shorter term deals.

I'm gonna go and predict that Bellinger and Bregman both sign short term deals again. Bo signs a 5-7 year deal. Tucker is the one I am very unsure about. I can see a 10+ deal for him here but not sure who else would.

Most of the top SP FAs remain unsigned as well (like Valdez, Suarez, Imai).

It could be that teams are exploring the trade market and waiting to see if the price comes down on those players (such as Alcantara, Ryan, Marte, Donovan, Kwan), before committing to the high-priced FA alternatives. Boston and Baltimore have already used trades as a way of improving their teams while preserving financial resources.

Looking back on the free agent market last year, a lot of the top names, mostly pitchers, signed in December. Blake Snell signed at the end of November, the 30th, then Juan Soto on December 11th, Max Fried on the 17th and Corbin Burnes on the 30th.

Teoscar signed January 3rd, Santander on the 20th, then the last two big names were Pete Alonso February 12th and Bregman on the 15th.

Will we have to wait until February to clear the logjam? I think not and the Jays have a history of signing free agents in January.

It's possible teams are a little more risk averse with long-term contracts a season before a lockout, but also the top names in FA all have warts. Bichette is coming off a knee injury and isn't considered a SS anymore. Tucker is a very good player but not elite, so teams aren't going to go crazy for a corner OF a year away from a "3" in front of his age. Bregman will be 32 on Opening Day. Bellinger's recent track record and underlying numbers are a bit spotty. Interestingly, Cease is someone who despite good numbers has actually underperformed his expected numbers a lot of years, so there's room for improvement on an existing 3-5 WAR SP. The Jays obviously felt that was worth the large contract. There really isn't a position player version of that. Tucker possibly fits that, but his issues are more injury than mechanical so that makes a longer term deal possibly more risky from a team standpoint.

I think Tucker signing a short-term deal is very possible if he's stubborn on what he wants on a long-term deal. I don't think there's enough of a market to drive his price up on a long-term deal. Bichette might be in the same boat. Objectively, Bichette might have the most incentive for the short-term pillow deal since he's coming off an injury. A full season at 2B where he (presumably) will be a lot better defensively might make him look more desirable next winter minus a QO, and he'd still only be 28.

Pete Fairbanks is going to Miami on a one year, $13M deal.

I'd argue Tucker is elite and Bo is "elite in some categories." Tucker is not elite when you compare him to someone like Soto or Ohtani but those players are a notch above elite. They are generational.

It does seem the market is being harsh on top end this year, but loosy goosy on mid-teir guys, especially relievers.

If you go by projected fWAR at their site you can see the top 3 (Tucker, Bo, Bregman) haven't signed, #4 Cease did, #5/6 haven't (Valdez, Rnager Suarez), 6/7 have (Schwarber/King), 8 hasn't (Bellinger), 9-12 all have.

Starting pitchers have had some luck, but a damn good rotation could be made from the guys out there still. Cease-King-Woodruff-Kelly-Ponce signed, Valdez-Suarez-Gallen-Bassitt-Effin still waiting.

The pen is getting full with only 3 relievers left with a projected fWAR of 0.5 or better left (Harvey, Dominguez, Wilson). Even Romano got a guaranteed $2 mil for 2026.

On to hitters - by last years WAR Schwarber was #1 and signed for more than expected, next 4 still waiting (Bellinger, Tucker, Bo, Eugine Suarez) then Alonso signed (more than expected), Bregman/Bader both waiting. So 6 of the top 8 are unsigned. 9/10 are (Grisham/Naylor) - one took the QO, other signed for more years/raw dollars than projected (lower AAV).

It is quite the odd market. Clearly cash is out there, but the super-big spenders are holding their fire or waiting for something. I wonder if the offers have been good but the big guns are waiting it out, hoping for more. The rotation options surprised me to be sitting this long after Cease set the market early. The pen market moved far faster than I think anyone anticipated, and now even Fairbanks, dumped by the Rays, is getting $13 mil.

I wonder if some of these companies are simply waiting for their fiscal years to change over from 2025 to 2026 after Dec 31st to open new budgets.

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

Christmastime seems like the perfect point in the offseason to assess spending. Considering there are still a half-dozen potential nine-figure players in free agency, there should be more spent after Dec. 25 than before (a little over $1.5 billion). Here are three lists that cover every team: total outlay (free agent spending plus/minus guaranteed money picked up via trades), free agent spending and trade spending. I used @Matt_Swa’s arbitration model to project the salaries for arbitration-eligible players who were dealt.

TOTAL OUTLAY

Toronto: $277M
Baltimore: $206.9M
Philadelphia: $174.5M
Atlanta: $108.3M
Seattle: $99.8M
San Diego: $92.2M
New York Mets: $78.7M
Los Angeles Dodgers: $74.5M
Detroit: $59M
Boston: $56.4M
Chicago White Sox: $55.6M
Arizona: $50.3M
Pittsburgh: $46.3M
Texas: $44.9M
Chicago Cubs: $38.6M
New York Yankees: $29M
San Francisco: $25.4M
Cincinnati: $24.5M
Milwaukee: $22.9M
Miami: $15M
Kansas City: $13.2M
A’s: $13M
Cleveland: $11.9M
Tampa Bay: $9.4M
Minnesota: $7M
Washington: $5.5M
Colorado: $1.1M
Houston: -$1.7M
Los Angeles Angels: -$5.7M
St. Louis: -$43M

FREE AGENCY

Toronto: $277M
Baltimore: $185.1M
Philadelphia: $182M
New York Mets: $113M
Atlanta: $104M
Seattle: $99.8M
San Diego: $92.2M
Los Angeles Dodgers: $74.5M
Detroit: $59M
Chicago White Sox: $57.1M
Arizona: $50.3M
Chicago Cubs: $47.6M
Pittsburgh: $36.8M
New York Yankees: $29M
San Francisco: $25.4M
Cincinnati: $24.5M
Milwaukee: $23.3M
Tampa Bay: $22.5M
Texas: $20.6M
Miami: $15M
St. Louis: $12.5M
Cleveland: $11.9M
Los Angeles Angels: $8M
Minnesota: $7M
Washington: $5.5M
Kansas City: $5.3M
A’s: $3M
Houston: $2.6M
Boston: $0
Colorado: $0

TRADES

Boston: +$56.4M
Baltimore: +$25.8M
Texas: +$24.3M
A’s: +$10M
Pittsburgh: +$9.5M
Kansas City: +$7.9M
Atlanta: +$4.3M
Colorado: +$1.1M
Milwaukee: -$400K
Chicago White Sox: -$1.5M
Houston: -$4.3M
Philadelphia: -$7.5M
Chicago Cubs: -$9M
Los Angeles Angels: -$13.7M
Tampa Bay: -$13.1M
Mets: -$34.3M
St. Louis: -$55.5M