Time to dig into where things are at for the AL East imo. Plus the old thread is getting a bit long.

Out of curiosity I thought I'd check 2025 WAR/projected WAR added for the AL East. Are the Jays gaining or losing ground? fWAR is 2025/2026 via FanGraphs.

First Free Agency

• Jays: (+3) 4.7/6.4 added; 0 lost (they list Manoah but he was already gone)
• NYY: (+3) 3.7/3.5 added; (-2) 2.0/1.7 lost; (3) 3.7/3.5 retained
• Bos: (+0) 0 added; (-2) 2.9/3.1 lost
• TBR: (+3) 2.7/3.4 added; (-1) -0.1/0.6 lost
• Bal: (+3) 3.0/4.3 added; 0 lost/retained

Trades also exist...

• TOR: (+1) -0.1/0.1; (-1) 0/0
• NYY: (+0); (-0) no trades yet
• Bos: (+10) 3.9/4.7; (-10) -0.6/1.6
• TBR: (+6) 0.3/-0.4; (-8) 0.2/0.8
• Bal: (+3) 3.7/2.5; (-2) 3.1/3.0

So combined we get...

• TOR: net: +3 4.6/6.5; (+4) 4.6/6.5 added; (-1) 0/0 lost; (10) still free agents 8.1/9.8 (Bo, Bassitt, Max the big ones)
• NYY: net: +1 2.7/1.8; (+3) 3.7/3.5 added; (-2) 2.0/1.7 lost; (3) 3.7/3.5 FA retained; (11) still free agents 6.3/7.2 (Bellinger big one)
• Bos: net: -2 1.6/0.0; (+10) 3.9/4.7 added; (-12) 2.3/4.7 lost; (7) still free agents 7.3/7.5 (Bregman, Giolito the big ones)
• TBR: net: +0 2.9/1.6; (+9) 3.0/3.0 added; (-9) 0.1/1.4 lost; (2) still free agents 3.3/1.9 (Houser the biggest)
• Bal: net: +4 3.6/3.8; (+6) 6.7/6.8 added; (-2) 3.1/3.0 lost; (6) still free agents -0.9/4.7 (Zach Eflin biggest future value)

Based on 2025 stats (puts guys in minors at 0, and guys coming over from Korea or Japan at 0 as well) the Jays lead 4.6 to 3.6 (Baltimore). Projected the lead is bigger 6.5 vs 3.8. Boston has been busy but their add/subtract works out to a net 0 projected WAR gained over last year. But if one looks at FA left out there a lot of value is sitting out there waiting to be grabbed by someone with the Jays having the most potential lost (and Bassitt and Max are near 100% certain to be lost imo - 3.5 combined projected value, 2.8 actual value provided in the regular season plus a lot in the post-season). Annoyingly they still list Manoah as a Jay for 2025 even though he was acquired by Atlanta before the season ended. They also have Spencer Turnbull and Chad Green listed who the Jays dumped during the season.

The Jay free agents left according to FG are... Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Seranthony Domínguez, Ty France, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Max Scherzer, Nick Sandlin, Ryan Borucki, Spencer Turnbull, and Chad Green. Bo they are obviously chasing still, I could see IKF being given a AAA deal with spring invite, same for Borucki. Bassitt would be nice to bring back, but only if we can clear out space in the pen and he is good being there. Dominguez I can't see coming back, nor Scherzer. Sandlin they'd take back on a AAA deal. Scherzer I really can't see any path to bringing back outside of maybe him signing elsewhere, having a good year, and the Jays have a lot of injury issues mid-season but still are in contention and even then it is a slim shot. Ty France I can't see even a AAA deal for, same for Green & Turnbull.

Obviously the big if's are Bo vs Tucker vs Bregman with a slight shot at Bellinger if all 3 big guns sign elsewhere and no trades come about. Obviously right now the Japanese league players are the big 'must do something soon' situation. Munetaka Murakami has until December 22nd to make a deal I think so the pressure is on him and his suitors (Dodgers/Mets - big gap - Yankees/Red Sox/Cubs/Jays/Padres/Angels seen as the prime contenders in that order). I'd be quite surprised if the Jays do sign him at this point with the holes in his swing vs power pitching and his 'meh' defense being the biggest issues. A big risk/big reward with 80 power and that fastball issue. I see him going to the Angels myself (they have cash and really need a splash imo).