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The MLB Draft begins today. It will be a while before the Toronto Blue Jays make their first pick. They will not be picking until 39th as the Blue Jays received a 10-pick penalty on their first pick (No. 29) for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax. The Jays have a draft bonus pool of $5,543,100 to work with and do not have a second-round pick after signing Dylan Cease as a free agent.

The first four rounds of the draft go today and rounds 5-20 will be held on Sunday. MLB.com, MLB Network and Peacock will have coverage of the MLB Draft beginning at 1:00 pm Eastern Time today. Picks 11-40 will be held from 2:30 to 4:30 pm Eastern according to MLB.com so you can probably tune in before 4:30 pm if you only care about the Jays. You can follow the draft right here.

Baseball America has the Jays taking second baseman Jarren Advincula from Georgia Tech with its first-round pick in its latest mock draft. Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline thinks the Jays will go with outfielder Ty Head from North Carolina State while Jim Callis is predicting that righthander Taylor Rabe from Mississippi will be selected. Kiley McDaniel from ESPN is tabbing catcher Will Brick from Christian Brothers High School in Tennessee will layer in as Toronto's selection.


Image from @cole_carlon

Round 1, 39th overall. LHP Cole Carlon, Arizona State. Bats Left, Throws Left. 6-foot-5, 230 pounds. Born May 20, 2005 Slot Value $2,571,700.

MLB.com - Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 55

A product of Arizona high school powerhouse Corona Del Sol, Carlon stayed home to go to college, jumping right into the Arizona State bullpen as a freshman. He took a big step forward results-wise as a sophomore, also as a reliever, before pitching well in brief stops in the Cape Cod League and USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team Training Camp. A move into the Sun Devils' rotation this spring has helped cement him as top-two-round arm talent, even if the jury is still out about his long-term role. Considered to be the top college arm in the area, Carlon could have the chance to start thanks to a potential four-pitch mix coming from his strong 6-foot-5 frame. The lefty can run his fastball up to 98 mph, sitting around 94 mph, though it can get flat with scattered command. He's able to get back in line with his breaking stuff, starting with an 87-88 mph cutter-like short slider he throws as often as his heater that misses a ton of bats. He can manipulate it and make it a bit longer at times, and he also has an average 12-to-6 curve that offers a different look. His changeup is his fourth pitch, but it does have some fade to it. A solid athlete who hit .349 playing both ways in the Alaska Summer League in 2024, Carlon has struggled at times with finding the zone consistently, though he cut his walk rate down as a starter this year. There's some reliever risk, and he could move quickly in that role, but a team taking him in the top two rounds should give him every chance to stick in a rotation. Video

Baseball America - BA Grade/Risk: 55/High Adjusted Grade: 40 Carlon spent his first two seasons at Arizona State as a reliever, and as a sophomore in 2025 his 38.7% strikeout rate was the fourth-best mark in the country among qualified pitchers. He pitched as a starter in 2026 and vaulted up draft boards by succeeding in that role, with a 3.87 ERA in 83.2 innings, a 38% strikeout rate and a career-best 8.9% walk rate. Carlon is an imposing lefthander with a 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame and a pair of impact pitches. After averaging 94 mph as a reliever in 2025, Carlon added even more power to his fastball in 2026. He now sits around 96 mph and touches 100-101. His fastball is a clear plus offering on power alone, but Carlon doesn’t use it as his primary offering. Instead, he pitches off a power slider in the upper 80s that is one of the best breaking balls in the class. He threw the pitch more than half the time this spring and still managed to generate a 56% miss rate. Carlon’s slider is a devastating breaking ball with excellent power and sharp biting action that is equally effective against both lefties and righties. While his fastball/slider combination is lethal, Carlon faces further questions. He has toyed with both an upper-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup, but he lacks conviction in both and will need to develop a legitimate third offering to profile as a starter. He’s made strides with his control but needs to continue in that department to help himself work deeper into games. Carlon looks to become ASU’s first first-round pitcher since Mike Leake in 2009. Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45

Twitter Reaction

@MitchBannon With the 39th pick in the MLB Draft, the #BlueJays select LHP Cole Carlon from ASU. Started college career as a RP, but broke out as SP this season. Another extreme release point college pitcher. Great slider.

@MitchBannon There's probably some reliever downside here, and the fastball/slider could be elite in that role. #BlueJays will certainly give him a shot to stick in the rotation though

@EthanIgnatovsky Cole Carlon flashed great stuff at ASU, including a fastball that touched 100.7 MPH. He also struck out 133 batters and walked just 31 this past season. Still, there are questions surrounding Carlon's ability to start long-term, but he lands with an organization that's done a great job developing pitching. The Blue Jays took Trey Yesavage from ECU with the 20th overall pick in 2024 and got him to the Big Leagues in just over a year, where he's already made a tremendous impact.

@theprospectprof Cole Carlon lands with Toronto at 1.39. Has one of the higher ceilings among the college arms this year, but also some of the most pronounced reliever risk. His FB can touch triple digits, and his slider (which he threw more than half the time this season) is a double-plus weapon


Round 3, 103rd overall. 2B Ryan Cooney, Oregon. Bats Right-Throws Right. 6-foot-0, 195 pounds. Born October 7, 2004. Slot Value $762,900.

MLB Pipeline - Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45 Hailing from a Jesuit High School program in Oregon that produced first-round arms Mick Abel and Noble Meyer, Cooney headed south from his Portland area school to attend the University of Oregon for college ball. He was the only true freshman to start on opening day for the Ducks in what turned out to be an up-and-down first collegiate season for the infielder. Things clicked as a sophomore for Cooney, who earned All Big Ten first-team honors while leading Oregon in hitting and stolen bases. It’s been more of the same as the Ducks’ top bat during his junior campaign.

If you get just one look at Cooney, he might not jump off the page because he doesn’t possess overly loud individual tools. Watch him for a while, though, and you can’t help but leave liking what he can do. There is some definite bat talent from the right side of the plate, with a good feel for the barrel and an advanced approach that has led to him walking as much as he’s striking out. He has a definite hit-over-power profile, but he has been getting to more damage this year and has been really locked in during conference play.

Cooney has above-average speed and knows how to steal a base. He plays with an edge in a Dustin Pedroia kind of way, an aggressiveness scouts like. He initially lost his starting job at short to teammate Maddox Molony, then worked his way back into the starting lineup at second base. He’s a solid defender there, with some evaluators thinking he could still handle the left side of the infield at the next level.

Baseball America.- Cooney is a contact-oriented middle infielder who earned a starting job as a Day One freshman for Oregon in 2024. Injuries have limited him throughout his career, but he has been productive when healthy and started showing more extra-base pop as a junior in 2026. A 6-foot, 195-pound righthanded hitter, Cooney stands out for his exceptional contact skills. He never misses a fastball and rarely strikes out, with an impressive ability to shoot the ball the other way. He will occasionally pull the ball for home run power with a metal bat, but his power is modest and he’s never hit for much power with a wood bat during summer leagues.

Twitter Reaction

@Damon98_ Ryan Cooney is the Blue Jays type. Twitchy infielder who can play up the middle on the dirt. Firmly hit over power profile. + runner. 91% Z-Con/12.5% K rate in his Collegiate career. Ranked 175 on BA's top 100 so could be an underslot deal here.

@ShiDavidi With their second pick, No. 103 overall, the Blue Jays select Oregon infielder Ryan Cooney. Mostly played 2B this year, and Baseball America's scouting report says he has "exceptional contact skills, he never misses a fastball and rarely strikes out" but "his power is modest."

@MarcWestyNolan Jays select Ryan Cooney at 103. Unassuming build but plays really hard. Solid barrel rate guy and a versatile glove. I like that they drafted him as a SS not a 2B, its a minor detail but i think it says a lot about how they view him. Advanced approach a lot like Josh Kasevich

@JacobRudner The Blue Jays took Oregon second baseman Ryan Cooney with the 103rd overall pick (third round) as a shortstop. Singled out Cooney as a sleeper in early April and his profile grew steadily as the season went on. From earlier in the year:


Round 4, 131st overall. C Will Brick, Christian Brothers (TN). Bats Right/Throws.Right 6-foot-2, pounds. Born June 6, 2008. Slot Value $581,100.

MLB Pipeline - Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 65 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50

Christian Brothers HS (Memphis, Tenn.) has sent 11 players to the Majors, most notably All-Star catcher Tim McCarver. The Purple Wave now have the best prep catching prospect in the 2026 Draft after Brick reclassified from the 2027 class. He made that decision in October after starring for Team USA at the 18-and-under World Cup in Japan, batting .333 while providing quality defense behind the plate as the second-youngest player on the squad.

Brick's best tool is his well-above-average arm strength, as he regularly records sub-1.9-second pop times and can throw out basestealers from his knees. Gatorade's Tennessee high school player of the year, he moves well behind the plate and shows the potential to become a plus receiver and blocker once he improves his one-knee technique. He didn't have any issues handling the premium stuff he saw with the U.S. 18-and-under team and scouts rave about his makeup.

Brick's bat hasn't been as good as anticipated this spring. The Mississippi State recruit has a quick right-handed stroke but gets too passive at times and his long levers result in some in-zone swing-and-miss worries. He displays plus raw power in batting practice but focuses more on hitting line drives during game action.
Video

Baseball America - BA Grade/Risk: 55/High Adjusted Grade: 40 Brick was the top-ranked catcher in the 2027 draft class before he reclassified for 2026 in October. He remains one of the top overall catchers in the prep class, with solid tools and skills on both sides of the ball. He caught for Team USA’s 18U National Team in 2025, when he handled some of the best arms in the class and also led the team with a .667 slugging percentage in seven games. At 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, Brick has a lean, well-proportioned frame that still has room to add strength. He has a workable swing with solid bat-to-ball skills and a sound approach. Brick is still learning to elevate the ball consistently in games, but he shows solid raw power in batting practice. He has a chance to develop above-average raw power, though his current approach is more contact-oriented and gap-to-gap. Brick shines defensively. He’s a solid athlete who has played a decent number of innings at shortstop this spring, but his future is behind the plate. He has a no-doubt plus arm and regularly posts pop times of 1.9 seconds on throws to second base in games. His exchange is rapid and his footwork is rock solid as well. He’s praised for his game management skills and has all the tools to develop into a plus defender. Brick is committed to Mississippi State. Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Speed: 40 | Field: 60 | Arm: 65

2026 MLB Draft - Day 1 | 74 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#479989) #
Fangraphs has the Jays taking Brick as well at 39. My totally uneducated guess would be "none of the above", although if they did take one of the 4, Head would be my choice.
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#479992) #
One pick in and Keith Law's mock is already blown up.
Gerry - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#479994) #

Lets get rid of the italics

Gerry - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#479996) #
Just one pitcher in the top ten picks.
TamRa - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#479997) #
if he's there, I'm inclined to think they would take Rabe but this has the feel of a draft that won't line up with anyone's mocks at all. There were already two reach picks in the top 10
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#480004) #
As I type there are a few high ranks left waiting - Hunter Dietz #17, #21-29 all waiting, #31-34, #36-whatever but #39 withdrew (James Clark). The oddities are Atlanta taking a guy ranked #193 with the 26th overall pick (Canadian Carter Beck, LH OF), Brewers taking #107 with the 25th overall pick (Trey Ebel), Mets #88 with pick 27 (Carson Wiggins), and the Red Sox #75 with pick 20 (Jake Schaffner). Those picks move 3 more guys into the Jays potential (top 40 talent that wasn't drafted). A few guys ranked in the 40's also have been picked (not too far down) which also pushes some higher ranked guys into the Jays laps as options. #17 and #21-29 (#24 just taken) are all tempting I suspect. #17 is a LHP who is a junior in college.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#480005) #
I heard Rabe's stuff has deadly bite.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#480007) #
4 picks left before the Jays - Jays almost guaranteed a guy in the top 25 with 17-21-22-23 still on the board with #26 and many others still there. Always fun to speculate. Yesavage was a surprise drop after all.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#480008) #
Dang, Yankees took #17.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#480009) #
#21/22/23 still there with 2 picks before the Jays so they will, no matter what, have a shot at a top 25 player with the 39th pick. I'm sure the Jays are doing phone calls now to see who they want most/will sign depending on who drops to them.
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#480010) #
Jays going to pick the best player they can afford, or agree with a kid they really like but ranked much lower to have money to spread around?

I have no clue which way they go.
mendocino - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#480011) #
Cole Carlon LHP
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#480012) #
Jays take Cole Carlon - ranked #26 - LHP. 101 mph fastball, the announcers say he is a lot like Robbie Ray as a pitcher.
Gerry - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#480013) #
Did anyone predict that?

Tramuta's comments before the draft suggested they were looking at pitching.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#480014) #
Fangraphs had him ranked 11th overall.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#480015) #
"Extreme release point"

"great slider"

100+ velo
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#480016) #
Funny - Carlon one year hit in a summer league and hit 349/431/476 over 144 PA - a double threat. Heh. More he is just that good of an athlete. 14.3 K/9 last year in college at age 21. This is a guy likely to move fast through the system - expect him to start in A, then do the Yesavage route - A+/AA/AAA if he does well at each next year. I like the pick as you never can have enough pitching and at pick #39 this is a nice get.
TamRa - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#480017) #
FWIW, KLaw calls Carlon a steal.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#480019) #
I like this pick more and more. Sounds like he took a step forward this year which wasn't caught by everyone. I fully expect the Yesavage treatment in '26 for him - start low, and work up so he could be used in September/October if needed. It is a nice dream at least. A LHP who starts would be perfect for the rotation long term.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#480020) #
BA has him ranked 33rd. With a 70 slider and 60 fastball.
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#480021) #
Ranked #11 at FG.

Carlon is a lefty starter with an XL frame. He was a reliever for most of his career at ASU before becoming the Friday guy for the Sun Devils this season, where he blossomed into a first-round talent. Despite the size and a herky-jerky delivery that features a lot of moving parts, he throws strikes. His fastball touched triple digits at times this year and comfortably sat no lower than 93-96 mph in most outings. His primary offspeed is a plus power slider with late downward break that he can throw to both lefties and righties. He'll also throw an occasional curve and change, almost as if to remind scouts and draft evaluators that he has them. Carlon’s fastball plays beneath the number, which leaves him heavily reliant on the slider. He is able to run that pitch on and off the plate with consistently sharp break and pretty good feel for moving it around the zone, which gives him a chance to start even if everything else in the holster is pedestrian. I’d put his chances of staying in a rotation at a little better than 50/50, with late-inning upside in relief.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#480022) #
A Mariners site had a preview of him in case they got him. Interesting read.

Funny, just found this from BA where they talk about his hitting 100 MPH and might have got himself up to top 20 consideration even though they ranked him 33rd.

Always fun speculating on kids - who knows what they might do? He could be the next Yesavage or the next Matt Smoral (never reached).
Glevin - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#480024) #
Love the pick. I'll take the upside with risk over some of those safe floor guys that were being mocked to the Jays.
metafour - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#480025) #
Great pick. They've obviously had success with pitchers lately, and this is a high-upside LHP with big stuff.

Fangraphs had him at #11, and Keith Law had him at #15.
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#480026) #
Who correctly predicted "none of the above" as our pick :)

Guessing Carlon's slot for sure, maybe a bit more?
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#480027) #
Love the pick. It's damn near impossible to get high velocity LHP arms these days.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#480028) #
Great pick. Never heard of him before now.
chris_jays - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#480029) #
Tamra, where did you find Keith Law's comments on the pick? Would love to read it.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#480030) #
honestly this is exactly the kind of pick i love. elite upside and not even that much added downside risk compared to most prospects.

kinda reads to me as a lefty yesavage....but with much more velo, which would be pretty pretty good.
scottt - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#480031) #
Was expecting a pitcher and that's a good one.
Jays have had success with guys having limited repertoire.
TamRa - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#480032) #
Chris:

Another steal here in the comp round: Cole Carlon was a first-round talent and the No. 2 lefty on my board, just a few spots behind Hunter Dietz. He’s a four-pitch guy who works mostly slider/fastball, getting up to 98 mph without a ton of life on the heater. His changeup looks like it’ll be an average pitch, although he barely used it in college, with ASU calling the slider more than half the time. I think he’s a mid-rotation starter with some help with pitch selection and development on the changeup.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/mlb-draft-2026-live-updates-pick-by-pick-tracker/YvyqPCUCFgP7/?source=athletic_user_shared_live_blog_copylink&smid=url-share-ta
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#480033) #
I love that he had glowing scouting even before he hit 101.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#480034) #
Honestly, it sounds a lot like the Alek Manoah scouting report from back in the day.
Glevin - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#480035) #
Jays take Ryan Cooney. Don't love this profile of college, hit over power, ok at everything but not great at anything but at 103...seems ok I guess.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#480036) #
i don't remember Manoah hitting 101 before the draft.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#480037) #
don't love the sounds of the cooney pick.

hopefully '2B/SS' actually means just 'SS', and hopefully the org has some hidden exit velo numbers to go with his good contact tool.
metafour - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#480038) #
Cooney did show improved power this season with above average EV90 and Avg. EV, I believe. He looks like a better version of Eric Snow. They've gone to this profile several times.
mendocino - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#480039) #
Will Brick
metafour - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#480040) #
Holy crap, they just took Will Brick in the 4th round!
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#480041) #
Will Brick at 131
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#480042) #
that's the guy some had pegged for us at 39 right?
Gerry - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#480043) #
Cooney sounds like Kasevich.
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#480044) #
Cooney pick making more sense. Sounds underslot with savings going to Brick. Plus, the Jays are maybe the best org at adding power. Doesn't always work (Kasevich), but sometimes it does (Valenzuela, Harry, Bullard so far).

scottt - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#480045) #
More speed than Kasevich, but similar.
metafour - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#480046) #
that's the guy some had pegged for us at 39 right?

Yes, Brick is the HS catcher that was being mocked at #39.

Even if Cooney is under-slot (which he must be), I'm not sure where the money for Brick is coming from unless they got him on a steal of a deal. Are they punting later picks this year? Did they get Carson on a bit of a discount as well?

Cooney's slot is only $762K, and its not like he is an unranked player who is signing for nothing. The slot at Will Brick's pick is only $581k.

The Jays have been extremely good at navigating their bonus pools and draft planning over the past few years. To go into this draft with the #39 pick, no 2nd round pick, and one of the smallest overall bonus pools and end up with a college pitcher who arguably could have mid 1st round talent, and a HS hitter who could have gone in the back end of the 1st round is pretty wild.

uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#480047) #

@MitchBannon

#BlueJays amateur scouting director Marc Tramuta described Cole Carlon as having “now stuff.”

One of Tramuta’s friends texted him after the pick saying Carlon had “two October pitches." Jays like his changeup, too.

“I didn’t think he was going to get to us”

@ArdenZwelling

Blue Jays amateur scouting director Marc Tramuta says Cole Carlon has "two October pitches" in his fastball and slider. Evaluators saw FB up to 100 and grade slider as "plus to better."

Club sees an opportunity to develop Carlon's changeup to help him stick as a starter.

@ArdenZwelling

Tramuta describes Ryan Cooney as an "Ernie Clement clone" with a polished, high-contact bat. If Cooney can tap into more power, it'll be a bonus.

Cooney has played mostly second base but Tramuta says Blue Jays could try him at short early on in his minor-league career.



@bnicholsonsmith

Blue Jays scouting director Marc Tramuta said he anticipates the Jays will be able to sign Will Brick, the HS catcher they selected in the fourth round.
Nigel - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#480048) #
What are the injury concerns with Carlon? Lefties with velocity spikes seems vaguely familiar to Tiedemann and Barreira.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#480049) #
Excellent news all-around. Looking back at my Past Drafts article you can see how for these picks the odds were low of getting anyone who'd be significant. 9 guys ever drafted in these 4 slots have cracked 10 WAR, just 1 over 30 (who didn't sign - Barry Bonds). If a guy doesn't crack 10 WAR in his career then odds are he was no more than a utility guy or mid-reliever. So I've very, very glad the Jays took a shot at Carlon as I see a TON of potential based on what I've read so far (101 FB, killer slider, seen as top 10 level talent potentially thanks to major climb this past year). Cooney is a 'why not' guy imo - Ernie Clement types are not unusual in the minors, but rarely get to be productive ML'ers, but obviously it does happen time to time. Brick had a disappointing season, so the opposite of Carlon, but I say if you can get a top 50 level talent at 131 why the hell not?

I rated the odds of getting a guy who does 10+ WAR around 1% in the article, but that was low. More like (ignore the last 6 drafts as too soon to know) 5/55 + 2/55 + 2/55 for the first 3 picks = 9/55 or 16%, or 1 in 6. I like the odds better after getting a top 25 (maybe top 10) in Colon, and a top 50 in Brick.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#480050) #
Nigel - he is a young pitcher who throws very hard - injury concerns are sky high. I expect him to be shut down for 2026, then given the Yesavage treatment in '27, slowly built up throughout the season so he could pitch in the playoffs if he is ready. His 83 2/3 IP this year was his peak so I figure he will be limited to 100-120 IP next year depending how he responds. I'll guess 10 3 IP starts = 30 IP, 10 of 4 IP = 40 IP, then up to 10 more of 5 IP = 50 IP = total of 120 IP in a perfect world - spread among all levels. Hey, like I said before I love to dream.
Nigel - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#480051) #
Sorry June, I wasn’t very specific - my bad. On TV they mentioned that there were end of season concerns about a velocity dip and that maybe it was injury related. In other words, that there is a specific injury concern rather than the general “he’s a pitcher that throws hard so, of course, he’s one pitch away from a tj” concern.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#480054) #
Just noticed that while this is Carlon's 21yr old season, he's a very young 21 - May 20 bday, so barely over a month away from this being his 20 yr old season.

19: 26gms, 1.6ip/gm, 17.3k%, 13.7b%, .360babip, 7.52era, 6.51fip
20: 29gms, 1.9ip/gm, 38.7k%, 11.3b%, .279babip, 3.33era, 3.08fip
21: 16gms, 5.2ip/gm, 38.0k%, 8.9b%, .327babip, 3.87era, 4.30fip

You can really see why he was under the radar - absolutely stunk in yr1, was just very good reliever in yr2, and then made the leap to being a very good fulltime starter in yr3. Just a giant leap each year.
metafour - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#480055) #
Carlon had an arm injury scare late in the season, but apparently came back in conference tournament play and looked fine. That may have led to his fall. If I remember correctly, there was all sorts of speculation around Yesavage's health when he fell and was drafted #20.

So it could be nothing, or it could be something.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#480057) #
Like I said - all pitchers are that 1 pitch away from TJ. Even super-healthy guys, look at Berrios for the ultimate example. I think the Jays are being smart to take a shot at a lottery win here, with the injury risk being seen as secondary. I get a feeling they looked at what I looked at - how at pick 39 you have a shot at a ML'er but low odds (1 in 10 roughly) of getting a guy where you gain value (10+ WAR) when factoring in bonus/development cost. I recall them drafting guys in the past who were major injury concerns too.
Nigel - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#480058) #
Thanks metafour.
Glevin - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#480075) #
I appreciate the value the Jays got, but the 2nd and 3rd picks just aren't the kind of guys I'd generally be going for. 2B with great hit tool and low power and defense-first catcher are just the kind of guys you can find relatively easily even if they develop well. Maybe they think they can make Brick into a good hitter in which case he obviously has a lot more value but I generally like to draft different sorts of players. (lower floors, higher ceilings).
Marc Hulet - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#480079) #
Everyone is saying the Jays got a first round talent in Brick in the 4th but all rankings I've read had him as a second round talent. He was just mocked to the Jays with their first pick (which also wasn't first round) as conjecture. He's a very good defensive catcher with massive question marks on the hit tool.

High school catchers very rarely pan out which is why he fell to the Jays (who also probably floated him down). They'll no doubt take a lot of college seniors in rounds 5-10 and get him signed. They cant afford to lose a pick with such a small draft $ allotment.

He looks like a future Austin Hedges right now, if all goes well.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#480083) #
#39 - top-25 guy on most every list, top-15 on more than one.

#131 - top-50 guy on every list, mostly in the mid 30s.


i think it's hard not to be happy with that, as long as they sign them.

And given that Brick's risk factor is about as high as it gets, then i get why some might call him a first round 'talent' that drops down the rankings due to that risk.
hypobole - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#480085) #
Anybody drafted late in the 4th round rarely works out.

Rightly or wrongly it's looking like the Jays believe a major developmental strength of theirs is catchers. Kirk, Valenzuela, Moreno. The trade for Sprock. Giving their highest IFA bonus to Caricote.
metafour - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#480087) #
Marc, Fangraphs rated Brick at #36 overall, and Keith Law has him at #32. Kiley McDaniel has him at #39, as does Perfect Game. As usual, you are being pedantic. Whether or not you want to classify that as "late first round" or "early to mid second round" is pretty pointless, especially considering that this Draft in particular had about 30 players past the "first group" of 15-20 guys who are fairly interchangeable. There wasn't even 30 clear "first round" talents, and this has been reported by everyone for months now. Yes, I'm aware that Baseball America has him at #61 overall.

They 100% deliberately floated him down to their pick as they have done this multiple times now even with lower bonus pools, and I know that you know this, but I know your schtick so of course you are going try to imply that he really "fell" to the 4th round because every other team probably just rated him as a 4th round talent (lol).

Brick maxing out as Austin Hedges would be a win in itself (as his floor is actually a guy who doesn't even get out of the minors), but Brick is showing more power as a young 18 year old than Hedges did in his draft year.
Nigel - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#480092) #
The problem with leaning into C’s versus other position players is twofold: a) they are so much less valuable because of how often they get onto the field (they only play 3 out of 5 games when healthy and they get hurt more frequently); and b) C’s rarely have an alternative defensive position they can switch to if they can’t cut it at C). It’s not a strategy I would lean into.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#480095) #
Scouting reports say he's actually very good at 3B too.
Nigel - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#480098) #
uo - there are absolutely examples of C’s who can play elsewhere but as a general drafting/development philosophy it’s an issue.
hypobole - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#480099) #
I have the opposite viewpoint on catchers value. It's good catching prospects that are most coveted in trade. Looking at the top 6 prospects traded in each of the past 4 deadlines, 6 of the 24 were catchers. Also, Teel was the headliner in the trade that brought Crochet to Boston.

uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#480100) #
Yeah i'm not disagreeing. Risk here is very high.

But it seems like this kid was a very good defensive 3B who then switched to C and looked even better.

But yeah - if he was a 3B his bat wouldn't have him ranked anywhere near this high obviously.
Nigel - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#480101) #
The Jays’ most recent experience with trading a C prospect didn’t really reflect that though. Moreno was pretty much universally regarded as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He (along with Gurriel Jr) “only netted” Varsho in a trade. An established player but much older with fewer years of control. One argument in favour of that deal was that there would be a material difference in how often Moreno and Varsho got on the field. Even with Varsho’s own growing injury issues that’s proven to be the case. Moreno is averaging about 80-90 GP a season (albeit at a high level).
Nigel - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#480102) #
I’ll add the frequency in which C prospects have moved recently isn’t necessarily reflective of them having value (it may or it may not:)). You could argue that the selling team views that prospect as something that they are willing to move. The “value” may depend on which side of the fence you see things from.
Glevin - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#480103) #
My issue is not about ranking it's just that backup catcher is easiest position in baseball to fill and you can do so cheaply. It just isn't something I would feel the need to spend draft capital on. Give me the 2024 3/4 round sorts of guys. High school pitcher who can add speed as they fill out and potential power hitting corner guy. I'm just not interested in spending money or draft capital on this profile.
hypobole - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#480104) #
I think in this case the FO overvalued Varsho somewhat, based on his 4.3 WAR season and still having a year of pre-arb. Nonethe less teams want catchers and will trade good pieces for them.
hypobole - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#480105) #
All trades involve prospects teams are willing to move, otherwise there would be no trade.
But if you have a prize trade asset, you decide which player or player package of the multiple offered you choose to accept to consummate the deal. And recent deadlines show catchers are the headliners in an inordinate number of those prize trade asset deals.
metafour - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#480106) #
Nigel, Gabriel Moreno was absolutely not a "Top 10 prospect" when that trade was actually made. He was coming off a 62 game stretch in Buffalo where he hit for zero power (.105 ISO) and a 25 game sample at the MLB level where that continued (.058 ISO). Yes, he spent a few weeks as the "#1 prospect in baseball" in a mid-season update after multiple players graduated off of the rankings which pushed Moreno up by default, but post-trade he was already falling to the ~Top 20-30 range due to warts that were starting to show in AAA and the MLB. Public prospect rankings are always behind what is actually happening in MLB front office evaluations. Gurriel had very little value as a poor-fielding corner outfielder with an up-and-down bat and non-impact power and bad baserunning. He had two playable seasons in Arizona, but has been terrible the past two seasons.

You are also underrating what Varsho was at the time of the trade. He was arguably the best defender in baseball, and was showing potential 30+ HR power. He was 26 years old at the time of the trade and was under team control for 4 years. Its easy to look back now and say that they "only netted" Varsho, but he was coming off a 4.3 fWAR season and was improving year over year.

Ultimately the D-Backs "won" the trade, but the real takeaway is that the the flaws of all the players that were dealt ultimately ended up staying true. Moreno's power never really materialized (although he is having a good season and is still only 26) and Varsho's ability to make contact never improved. Gurriel basically just stayed as Gurriel: a guy who's base stats look OK to good, but who's underlying flaws mean that he is barely better than a replacement level player.
June Northey - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#480110) #
Who won the Varsho trade is secondary - both teams made it to the World Series at least in part thanks to the guys they got then. Varsho as a Jay 12.0 bWAR, Moreno 11.3 as a Diamondback, Gurriel Jr in his first year there (then a FA no one signed for months) 2.9 = 12.0 vs 14.2 - 2.2 WAR over 4 years isn't much. The Jays had nowhere to play Moreno with Kirk everyday behind the plate (see Valenzuela currently), plus in CF we were a nightmare back then (Springer in CF was not good, and Teoscar was used there a fair amount too pre-Varsho). A nice win for both teams imo.
metafour - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#480112) #
Back to Will Brick: it didn't take long for him to immediately fall victim to the classic trope where any catcher who is praised for their defense must by default be a "defense first guy who can't hit". Guys, he is a young for the class ~18.1 year old who has already shown above-average bat speed and solid power (109 Max EV) with a solid feel for hitting and contact. Whether he ultimately pans out is anyone's guess, but please do not assume that this is some complete project.

By the way: basically every HS hitter who plays a premium position is going to have some degree of question marks around the bat unless they are a Top 20 pick. Every such player drafted in the 2nd round or later is going to have those question marks. Why? Because if they were safe bets to hit for impact while playing a good SS, CF, or C then they would be locks to be drafted in the Top 15-20 overall. If you are drafting a HS hitter in the ~3rd round and they have great contact and great power, it likely means that they have zero defensive value whatsoever.

There is a reason why someone like Jojo Parker was a universal Top 10 pick as a HS SS, while Blaine Bullard was a "toolsy but will he hit?" CF signee. If Bullard had Jojo Parker's track record of hitting going into the draft, he wouldn't have been signing for $1.7M in the 12 round. He'd have been a Top 15-20 pick and signing for $4M+.
Glevin - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#480116) #
By the way: basically every HS hitter who plays a premium position is going to have some degree of question marks around the bat unless they are a Top 20 pick"

If they are seen as a great defender, yes. This is why I don't want to draft great defending catchers. I just don't think catcher defense is a skill that's very hard to find. Brick's bat is not questioned because of some trope it's because the scouting all mentions it as a weakness or area that needs improvement. Maybe the Jays think they can change his swing and make him a starting catcher sort of prospect in which case, it's more than worth it but on the face of it, I don't like it. Last year Jays found value all through the draft going over and under. This year, they are seemingly going to 4/5 year seniors all to save money for Brick. This was never going to be a strong draft because of the picks the Jays had but would much rather jays have taken their big swing on something other than a defensive catcher.
June Northey - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#480157) #
The nice thing with Brick is timeline - Kirk is signed through 2030, Valenzuela won't be a free agent until at least after 2032 unless the rules change. Brick at only 18 will need a few years to get going, perfect world 2027 is A-, '28 A, '29 A+, '30 AA, '31 AAA - maybe reaches as Kirk leaves, or in '32 is ready to be Valenzuela's backup, if he is really good he can take over in '33.

Catchers are a very long term thing - they need time to develop, and moving more than a level a year isn't expected. Odds are Brick will not make it - remember, in all of Jays history only 7 round 4 guys have positive bWAR, with 8 more reaching so under 1 in 3 have reached the majors with none getting 10 bWAR (my rule of thumb for significant value), Casey Janssen & Sam Dyson (decent relievers) lead and are the only ones over 5 WAR, with only 2 others over 1 WAR - Ryan Goins (backup IF), and Xavier Hernandez (reliever). Yeah, that sucks. Round 5 has 4 guys at 19+ bWAR (drafted pre 2000), plus Biggio/Lane Thomas/Ryan Schimpf/Marc Rzepczynski/John Bale at 1-7 bWAR.

So expecting a ton in round 4 is a mistake. Rounds after 1 & 2 are really crapshoots. You hope to get lucky and find the diamond in the rough but odds are low. For every round 20 Jeff Kent you get a batch of round 3's like John Stilson, Chris Hawkins, Marcus Knecht, Nick Wells, Justin Maese who never make it (round 3 is where Ricky Tiedemann was drafted btw - lord knows if he'll ever be healthy long enough to reach).

So enjoy the hope and dreams, but know the odds are low we'll care about more than 1-3 of the 19 drafted these past few days in 3 years. I dream of a miracle and Carlon being a Yesavage, Cooney being a Clement, and Brick becoming a Jansen someday. The guys day 2 I don't see as likely to be more than cannon fodder in the minors but I'd be 1 or 2 will surprise and climb up and maybe get a cup of coffee in the majors.
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