Bit of a slowdown for Yesavage there - 2 walks out of 3 batters faced if I read the boxscore right. Ick. Unless he goes out and dominates I'd leave him down for the rest of this year and prep him to fight for a rotation slot in 2026.

Sad to see Vancouver come in 2nd both halves which gets you absolutely nothing. Hopefully it was still fun for all of you on the west coast to watch.

from BA:
On Aug. 22, Baseball America’s Geoff Pontes highlighted Blue Jays third baseman Sean Keys as a hitter with strong underlying data. Since then, the 22-year-old has hit five home runs in 57 plate appearances at High-A Vancouver leading to a 211 wRC+. Looking closer at the data, his underlying metrics resemble quite closely to another 22-year-old, albeit at one level higher, Guardians second baseman Travis Bazzana

Outside of Bazzana’s significant advantage in barrel rate, the two hitters essentially mirror each other. Although the difference in barrel rate is substantial, Keys’ 19% rate is essentially plus (Bazzana’s borders double-plus). Keys is underrated, and his recent performance is only starting to converge with the underlying data.

BA looks at Yohendrick Pinango today. I am not going to reproduce the chart but here is the commentary:

Let’s switch gears and talk about one of the most important aspects of player development and prospect evaluation for hitters: determining a player’s ability to leverage his athletic tools.

From a simplistic perspective, the two primary athletic hitting tools are how fast a player can swing a bat in a game situation and how gifted they are at getting their barrel on the ball when they do swing.

Baseball, of course, is a lot more nuanced than that. Swing decisions and pitch recognition will impact how hard you can swing and the quality of contact you’ll make. More important than that is your swing path, something that’s begun percolating into the public discourse more and more thanks to Baseball Savant making that data more widely available.

With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at a poster child for the player archetype that most underperforms the base raw power/contact tools.

If we look at Pinango’s raw power, both his 90th percentile and maximum exit velocity metrics point to at least 75-grade raw power, bordering on a true 80. Every two mph above the MLB average roughly translates to 10 points on the 20-80 scouting grade scale. Pinango combines that power with above-average zone-contact rates, and his average launch angle of 13.6 degrees looks like it’s major league average, so he might even be able to tap into his raw power. If we were to look at just these four metrics, we’d be inclined to pound the table and anoint Pinango as a legit, no-doubt Top 100 Prospect.

However, there’s a massive problem. While Pinango’s launch angles are average overall, take a look at his average flyball exit velocity and his average hard-hit launch angle. When Pinango gets the ball in the air (20 degrees or above), he’s averaging a paltry 86 mph on those batted balls. That translates to 35-grade power if we were only looking at that metric.

You read that correctly: Pinango, based on his metrics this year, is perhaps a 75/35 raw/game power-type player. Further, when he does hit the ball hard (95 mph+), his average launch angle is 4.1 degrees, which severely limits his chances of hitting a lot of home runs. Unsurprisingly, this leads to about average slugging on contact, which is what you’d expect given Pinango’s power/launch angle profile.

If there ever was a player who needed a swing change, it’s Pinango. He has the bat speed to be a top-tier hitting prospect and the damage-on-contact potential that could be top-of-the-scale if he had a swing more optimized for more launch angle. Making a swing change like that often comes with added swing-and-miss, but in this case, it would be well worth it.

more love for Sean Keys from VA Hotsheet

14. Sean Keys, 3B, Blue Jays
Team: High-A Vancouver (Northwest)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .333/.500/1.000 (6-for-18), 6 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 3 RBIs, 6 BB, 5 SO, 0-for-1 SB

The Scoop: A 2024 fourth-rounder out of Bucknell, Keys has had an unusual season. He’s hit just .217 but has tallied 19 home runs while walking in 16.2% of his plate appearances. His underlying Statcast data is very good, and he’s likely been more unlucky than anything this season. During High-A Vancouver’s series against Everett this past week, however, Keys had luck on his side, as he logged five extra-base hits, walked more than he struck out and posted a 1.500 OPS. While he’s a bat-first profile with some questions around his defensive fit long term, Keys does have a good blend of contact, approach and power, making him the latest under-the-radar Blue Jays hitting prospect. (GP)

Asterisk = promoted
Double Asterisk = demoted



AAA

Excellers

OF Schreck (24): 188pa, 14.9b%, 20.7k%, .295bip, .261avg, .229iso, 138wrc+
IF Jimenez (24): 67pa, 16.4b%, 19.4k%, .375bip, .283avg, .075iso, 130wrc+

So yeah a great year for Schreck. Look forward to seeing him next year.

Real shame that Jimenez had his season completely wiped out by injuries.


Average

2B Kennedy (26): 352pa, 11.6b%, 14.5k%, .314bip, .282avg, .134iso, 117wrc+
1B Tirotta (26): 426pa, 11.7b%, 29.3k%, .386bip, .278avg, .156iso, 117wrc+
IF Stefanic (29): 400pa, 12.8b%, 10.0k%, .297bip, .275avg, .094iso, 114wrc+
C Clarke (27): 166pa, 14.5b%, 11.4k%, .303bip, .275avg, .087iso, 107wrc+
UT Schneider* (26): 160pa, 15.0b%, 28.7k%, .310bip, .226avg, .165iso, 103wrc+
OF Pinango (23): 296pa, 11.8b%, 18.6k%, .291bip, .250avg, .152iso, 102wrc+
OF Loperfido (26): 373pa, 7.8b%, 21.4k%, .329bip, .264avg, .137iso, 101wrc+
OF Clase (23): 309pa, 10.0b%, 24.3k%, .325bip, .251avg, .137iso, 96wrc+
UT Barger* (25): 45pa, 11.1b%, 28.9k%, .250bip, .211avg, .211iso, 94wrc+
C Pinto (28): 231pa, 7.8b%, 31.6k%, .350bip, .265avg, .242iso, 89wrc+
IF Rivera (24): 355pa, 13.8b%, 32.1k%, .344bip, .229avg, .113iso, 89wrc+
C Valenzuela (24): 80pa, 13.8b%, 27.5k%, .289bip, .217avg, .130iso, 82wrc+

Nothing to love here, nothing to hate here. A while bunch of potentially useful guys but likely nothing earthshaking. Of course the youngsters Pinango and Clase would be the ones with the most upside.

Valenzuela's bounced back a bit lately.


Strugglers

IF Martinez (23): 394pa, 11.9b%, 28.4k%, .215bip, .176avg, .173iso, 72wrc+
1B Palmegiani** (25): 167pa, 10.8b%, 28.1k%, .231bip, .159avg, .072iso, 56wrc+
OF Brown (23): 6pa, 33.3b%, 0.0k%, .000bip, .000avg, .000iso, 42wrc+
IF Kasevich (24): 67pa, 14.9b%, 20.9k%, .190bip, .145avg, .000iso, 33wrc+

Finally Palmegiani got demoted. I have no idea how he survived almost the entire year up here tbh.

Tough tough comeback for Kasevich. Hopefully he can come back fresh next year.

Courtesy promotion for Dasan Brown, likely not around next year.



AA

Very Young For Level

OF De Los Santos (20): 4pa, 25.0b%, 25.0k%, .500bip, .333avg, .000iso, 162wrc+

Anyone have any info on this guy and why he was promoted all the way up to AA to end the year?


Young for Level

OF Arias (21): 150pa, 9.3b%, 25.3k%, .292bip, .226avg, .105iso, 82wrc+

Not great start to the level but nothing to be too down about either. Expect him to excel here next year I think.


Age-Appropriate

OF Martinez (22): 248pa, 7.7b%, 19.4k%, .307bip, .250avg, .098iso, 93wrc+
IF Paulino (22): 343pa, 7.0b%, 26.8k%, .238bip, .198avg, .163iso, 82wrc+
IF Harry** (22): 141pa, 10.6b%, 23.4k%, .191bip, .153avg, .073iso, 46wrc+
C Deschamps (22): 28pa, 10.7b%, 39.3k%, .143bip, .080avg, .040iso, -5wrc+

Martinez holding on to a decent year (barely) but Paulino fell off hard.


Slightly Old for Level

OF Pinango* (23): 192pa, 14.1b%, 21.9k%, .357bip, .298avg, .224iso, 168wrc+
C Gilliland** (23): 7pa, 14.3b%, 57.1k%, 1.000bip, .200avg, .200iso, 154wrc+
IF McAdoo (23): 468pa, 9.4b%, 28.8k%, .321bip, .245avg, .166iso, 112wrc+
OF Bohrofen (23): 313pa, 11.2b%, 33.9k%, .289bip, .204avg, .178iso, 99wrc+
OF Brown* (23): 276pa, 11.6b%, 30.4k%, .259bip, .175avg, .074iso, 65wrc+
IF Dejesus (23): 214pa, 9.3b%, 30.8k%, .276bip, .188avg, .078iso, 56wrc+
C Sharp (23): 199pa, 8.0b%, 27.6k%, .224bip, .157avg, .041iso, 46wrc+
C Stone (23): 107pa, 4.7b%, 21.5k%, .213bip, .180avg, .070iso, 40wrc+

Was hoping to see McAdoo finish off stronger tbh. Kind of fizzling a bit at the end here.

Bohrofen not a disaster but tough to be hopeful about with that shaky line.

Disaster for the rest.


Old for Level

OF Schreck* (24): 169pa, 15.4b%, 23.7k%, .311bip, .266avg, .252iso, 165wrc+
UT Hornung (24): 214pa, 9.8b%, 34.1k%, .400bip, .269avg, .177iso, 127wrc+
C Valenzuela* (24): 374pa, 10.7b%, 22.2k%, .266bip, .229avg, .159iso, 106wrc+

Don't think Hornung is worth hoping on.



A+

Very Young for Level

IF Nimmala (19): 543pa, 10.1b%, 21.4k%, .266bip, .224avg, .156iso, 91wrc+

Too bad. Looks like he's gonna have to repeat the level next year, which isn't a disaster at 20 at all, but a big dissappointment after his great start.4


Young for Level

UT Shaw (20): 28pa, 3.6b%, 32.1k%, .167bip, .111avg, .037iso, -23wrc+

meaningless.


Age Appropriate

OF Arias* (21): 318pa, 11.3b%, 20.1k%, .367bip, .294avg, .143iso, 128wrc+
IF Toman (21): 53pa, 11.3b%, 22.6k%, .406bip, .302avg, .047iso, 124wrc+
IF Coffey (21): 440pa, 10.7b%, 22.7k%, .341bip, .273avg, .154iso, 118wrc+
C Duran (21): 140pa, 11.4b%, 18.6k%, .269bip, .230avg, .107iso, 90wrc+

Duran almost all the way back after that awful start. He's legit.

Toman got his line looking better but only thanks to babip.


Slightly Old for Level

IF Pinto (22): 85pa, 9.4b%, 16.5k%, .264bip, .284avg, .324iso, 165wrc+
OF Hernandez (22): 106pa, 9.4b%, 17.0k%, .324bip, .293avg, .174iso, 124wrc+
3B Keys (22): 529pa, 16.3b%, 22.1k%, .250bip, .217avg, .191iso, 118wrc+
UT Freethy (22): 120pa, 15.0b%, 19.2k%, .320bip, .253avg, .111iso, 117wrc+
OF Martinez* (22): 65pa, 10.8b%, 24.6k%, .333bip, .236avg, .073iso, 95wrc+
C Deschamps* (22): 70pa, 10.0b%, 40.0k%, .393bip, .196avg, .089iso, 90wrc+
C Parker (22): 276pa, 7.6b%, 19.6k%, .265bip, .233avg, .153iso, 89wrc+
IF Harry (22): 225pa, 9.3b%, 18.7k%, .272bip, .228avg, .099iso, 77wrc+

Keys finishing off strong. And he needed to because he has some catching up to do.

Pretty much all the other names here are interesting enough to keep an eye on imo.


Old for Level

OF Micheletti (23): 464pa, 16.8b%, 15.1k%, .241bip, .228avg, .190iso, 124wrc+
IF Goodwin (23): 385pa, 13.5b%, 17.9k%, .275bip, .244avg, .159iso, 117wrc+
C Gilliland (23): 83pa, 15.7b%, 33.7k%, .300bip, .206avg, .132iso, 88wrc+
C Stone* (23): 63pa, 6.3b%, 17.5k%, .222bip, .185avg, .074iso, 50wrc+

Gilliland might be pushing himself into the catching picture.


A

Young for Level

UT Ramon (19): 52pa, 7.7b%, 26.9k%, .324bip, .229avg, .083iso, 73wrc+
C Minoso (19): 14pa, 0.0b%, 7.1k%, .000bip, .000avg, .000iso, -100wrc+

Ramon seems to be improving a bit.


Age Appropriate

UT Shaw* (20): 274pa, 16.4b%, 19.7k%, .303bip, .253avg, .164iso, 130wrc+
UT Chirinos (20): 382pa, 12.8b%, 25.4k%, .339bip, .255avg, .115iso, 110wrc+
OF Joseph (20): 323pa, 5.9b%, 18.6k%, .290bip, .245avg, .119iso, 97wrc+

Good lines all around here.


Slightly Old for Level

OF Munoz (21): 112pa, 10.7b%, 29.5k%, .339bip, .265avg, .255iso, 143wrc+
C Duran* (21): 291pa, 8.9b%, 21.3k%, .370bip, .296avg, .142iso, 131wrc+
IF Toman* (21): 371pa, 9.7b%, 24.8k%, .341bip, .260avg, .115iso, 107wrc+
IF Beltre (21): 431pa, 10.2b%, 17.6k%, .279bip, .237avg, .098iso, 89wrc+
OF Beckles (21): 74pa, 12.2b%, 28.4k%, .302bip, .215avg, .108iso, 85wrc+
OF Aponte (21): 281pa, 6.8b%, 30.2k%, .275bip, .209avg, .154iso, 78wrc+
IF Snow (21): 104pa, 5.8b%, 8.7k%, .259bip, .237avg, .065iso, 78wrc+
C West (21): 61pa, 18.0b%, 11.5k%, .186bip, .160avg, .040iso, 63wrc+
C Cresswell (21): 27pa, 3.7b%, 33.3k%, .313bip, .200avg, .040iso, 48wrc+
OF Licourt (21): 45pa, 8.9b%, 48.9k%, .333bip, .171avg, .073iso, 44wrc+

Not much exciting left here outside of Munoz.


Old for Level

OF Casey (22): 82pa, 12.2b%, 23.2k%, .357bip, .281avg, .250iso, 173wrc+
IF Freethy* (22): 193pa, 18.1b%, 21.2k%, .321bip, .252avg, .126iso, 130wrc+
OF Smith (22): 99pa, 12.1b%, 12.1k%, .284bip, .259avg, .136iso, 129wrc+
OF Hernandez* (22): 204pa, 12.7b%, 23.0k%, .308bip, .244avg, .157iso, 119wrc+
IF Latta (22): 100pa, 9.0b%, 25.0k%, .369bip, .267avg, .067iso, 96wrc+
C Tibbitts (22): 176pa, 12.5b%, 29.5k%, .298bip, .210avg, .133iso, 95wrc+
C Gilliland* (23): 39pa, 15.4b%, 25.6k%, .227bip, .188avg, .188iso, 93wrc+

Most alll these guys surprisingly interesting despite their age.

Valenzuela definitely looks like a decent backup/3rd catcher if his D is as good as advertised. System overall seems in much better shape than last year and that's without factoring in that none of the Jays top-5 bonuses this year played at all. Also, expect a few of the TJ guys to be better next year as further along rehab. Finally, it feels like we have depth all over the minor leagues. I expect a few guys to be able to help next year. Yesavage, Schreck, Tiedemann, Stanifer, Jimenez, Pinango, McAdoo, Kasevich all seem close enough to majors to potentially help. Lower down, Nimmala, Parker, King, Sanchez, and more will be really fun to watch.

Nimmala had such a weird year. Looked like a top-20 prospect first 2 months and then looked overmatched rest of the year.

Yeah agreed with all that Glevin.

Lemme sketch what our "AAAA" lineup might look like next year:


RH Yesavage 22
LH Tiedemann 23
RH Bloss 25
RH Manoah 28
RH Francis 30

With Stanifer 22 and Perez 22 hopefully getting to AAA at some point too.



CF Clase 24
RF Schreck 25
LF Pinango 24
3B McAdoo 24
SS Jimenez 25
2B Kasevich 25
1B Tirotta 27
C Valenzuela 25
DH Loperfido 27

UT Orelvis 24
OF Bohrofen 24
IF Rivera 25
C Clarke 28

With hopefully OF Arias 22 getting to AAA at some point. I would have expected Nimmala to get there too at some point next year but now i'm not so sure.

Oops - Loperfido will be 28 next year.

Loperfido born May 1999

Clase, Jimenez and Martinez are out of options and will get claimed if on waivers.

Pinango is a milb FA of not added to the 40-man (no lock given the MLB/AAA glut).

Bloss probably isn't back at AAA until June/July. Chad Dallas will be back sooner.

I don't know that having Schultz/Tate/Bruihl/Lucas/Estrada/Loperfido on the 40-man constitutes a "glut" tbh. And of course if we lose any of Clase/Jimenez/Martinez there's more 40 man spots opened up.

Jimenez and Clase will either be on the big league bench next season or on other teams. Martinez is more questionable as he was horrendous this season after a PED suspension and can’t field a position. I could see Jimenez sticking around as a platoon mate with Gimenez at 2B or SS next season. Clase doesn’t really fit unless they really like the upside and are willing to keep him for that.

I suspect with Straw here there is zero need for Clase - speed is Clase's biggest asset and Straw covers that nicely. Wouldn't be surprised if post-season we see a few of these out of option guys traded for next to nothing just to clear space and get something.

Reports say the reason Yesavage only threw 18 pitches on Sunday is that he is going back to starting. He could pitch as soon as tomorrow.