I'm not getting the next man up vibe that the Jays had earlier in the summer when they seemed unbeatable, but they've still done darn good lately considering Clement, Bargar and Heineman have been largely ice cold and Vlad's missed several games. Springer, Varsho and especially Bo have kept them afloat. We need a few more people to step up but, hey, the Jays have been in first place for nearly 2 months, Michael Kay!

Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:



RH Bieber 5gms, 6.4ip/gm, 3.52era, 3.61fip, 3.8war/32
RH Gausman 6gms, 6.0ip/gm, 3.90era, 3.83fip, 2.9war/32
RH Scherzer 5gms, 5.8ip/gm, 4.00era, 4.05fip, 2.9war/32
RH Bassitt 6gms, 5.7ip/gm, 4.06era, 4.14fip, 2.7war/32
RH Berrios 6gms, 5.7ip/gm, 4.30era, 4.40fip, 1.9war/32
LH Lauer 10gms, 1.7ip/gm, 4.12era, 4.30fip, 0.3war/32 (0.7war/65)
RH Manoah 2gms, 2.5ip/gm, 4.47era, 4.53fip, 0.0war/32


RH Hoffman 12gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.22era, 3.25fip, 1.4war/65
RH Dominguez 12gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.53era, 3.73fip, 1.1war/65
LH Little 11gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.38era, 3.61fip, 0.6war/65
RH Varland 12gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.40era, 3.62fip, 0.5war/65
RH Nance 11gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.77era, 3.70fip, 0.3war/65
RH Fisher 8gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.93era, 4.02fip, 0.0war/65
RH Rodriguez 11gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.10era, 4.14fip, 0.0war/65
LH Fluharty 10gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.16era, 4.26fip, 0.0war/65

RH Yesavage 2gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.33era, 3.39fip, 0.0war/65
RH Garcia 5gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.68era, 3.70fip, 0.0war/65
RH Sandlin 3gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.11era, 4.35fip, 0.0war/65
RH Schultz 10gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.30era, 4.29fip, 0.0war/65
RH Pina 7gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.93era, 4.39fip, 0.0war/65
LH Bruihl 8gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.25era, 4.47fip, 0.0war/65





DH Springer 118pa, .339obp, 118wrc+, 2.8war/650
SS Bichette 126pa, .336obp, 119wrc+, 4.1war/650
1B Guerrero 130pa, .381obp, 147wrc+, 4.5war/650
C Alejandro 93pa, .352obp, 115wrc+, 5.6war/650
CF Varsho 114pa, .295obp, 104wrc+, 3.4war/650
LF Schneider 58pa, .326obp, 106wrc+, 2.2war/650
RF Lukes 83pa, .335obp, 105wrc+, 2.3war/650
3B Barger 100pa, .311obp, 105wrc+, 2.6war/650
2B Gimenez 119pa, .317obp, 95wrc+, 3.3war/650

UT France 47pa, .329obp, 102wrc+, 1.4war/650
OF Straw 33pa, .301obp, 75wrc+, 2.0war/650
IF Clement 62pa, .302obp, 93wrc+, 2.1war/650
C Heineman 32pa, .325obp, 91wrc+, 4.1war/650

UT Santander 33pa, .311obp, 110wrc+, 2.0war/650
OF Loperfido 33pa, .303obp, 93wrc+, 2.0war/650
IF Jimenez 3pa, .324obp, 94wrc+, 0.0war/650
C Bethancourt 1pa, .255obp, 69wrc+, 0.0war/650

I'm not advocating for Clement in this, but these are the wRC+'s in August: Clement 92, Barger 62, Gimenez 49. I think Clement needs some rest/days off, but Barger and Gimenez are actually struggling more. A few more ABs for Schneider at 2B wouldn't be a terrible idea in the circumstances.

Weird thing is a recent interview Varsho gave he said that he is trying to hit a ground ball at the pitcher every time now and that is part of what is working for him. Whatever works I guess.

Varsho 170PA - 40RBI
Clement 489PA - 40RBI

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
1h
Yimi Garcia (ulnar nerve symptoms) hasn’t been bouncing back well between recent throwing sessions and is going to visit with Dr. Keith Meister for another opinion on his elbow — date TBD



Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
1h
Nick Sandlin (elbow) experienced some discomfort in his elbow while throwing from 120-feet recently. He’s in Toronto to be assessed by Blue Jays staff.

Club’s hope is Sandlin’s setback is a minor one and he can continue throwing, but it’ll depend how medical staff evaluates him



Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
1h
Anthony Santander (shoulder) is in Toronto with the Blue Jays; he’s progressed to hitting off high-velocity pitching machines

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
59m
Santander is also scheduled to take some fly balls in the outfield pre-game on Monday

Sadly not a shock with Garcia - was worried his contract would be a wipeout due to his issues last year post-trade and his age. Sigh. Sandlin hopefully is 100% for 2026, and maybe for the playoffs. Santander I have no idea what to hope for - if he is healthy he could be a wow bat to add late in the year, but if he isn't 100% he would steal playing time from someone who is playing well (Schneider, Lukes, Barger). Lots of choices coming up for the team. Good problems to deal with (too many guys who deserve time), but headaches none-the-less.

Conservatively, you figure Santander needs at least another week to be ready for a rehab assignment. He’s been out since mid May, so with one rehab game per week out of the lineup, my poor arithmetic tells me that he needs at least 15-20 rehab starts (60-70 at-bats) to be ramped up and ready. That’s a tight squeeze, especially since the minors end a week earlier than the bigs.

Despite that, I’d say the Jays will make every effort to shorten that timeline to have him ready for at least a few starts in the regular season (possibly the final week of the season, or perhaps even the final weekend) before making a decision on whether to roster him for the post season. I always liked Santander, and no doubt he has worked extremely hard to get back to this point. My guess is they will need his bat.

Will be a tight squeeze for Santander for sure but this is a guy who hit 44 HR's and had a 127 WRC+ last year so if he can be back for the playoffs, it would be a huge boost. Barger sitting again which I assume is mostly because they want to be cautious with Vlad so want to DH him so are playing France. He's struggling now so a couple of days off aren't a bad idea. His problems seem relatively simple to me in that he's too aggressive and not waiting for his pitches but hitting is rarely simple.

Having Santander off the bench instead of France would be a nice boost to the team, at least psychologically.

I wonder if we don't talk about Nance enough.

He's had a very bad injury history but.....maybe he's actually good?


Since 2023:

MLB: 35gms, 1.1ip/gm, 24.1k%, 7.4b%, 68era-, 68fip-, 78xfip-, 0.7war/65
AAA: 55gms, 1.2ip/gm, 26.6k%, 5.5b%, 85era-, 68fip-, 72xfip-


it's been low leverage work but still good work. throws hard, with command, and has 3 effective pitches.

I agree Glevin, the team loses nothing by trying to get him back. While a post season run in MLB is not as long and gruelling as the NBA or NHL (where it’s basically a shortened second season), the Jays offense will be facing a front end starter or an ace in pretty much every start. With due respect to Barger, I want Santander facing Skubal, Rodon, Crochet, Fried, to say nothing about some of the righties they’d face over the required 10-15 games it would take to win a Championship.

He’s going to have to be good, ugly. If Varland and Rodriguez can’t get command of their pitches back, he’s suddenly a pretty important piece in that bullpen. I’d trust Nance over Yariel at this point moving forward.

Jays have had bad luck with reliever health this year. Sandlin would have been a really nice piece to get back, but it looks pretty doubtful now. A healthy, effective Garcia probably would have supplanted Hoffman by now.

For fun I took a look at DRS for CF - Straw is 3rd in MLB, Varsho 5th. Both are sub 500 innings, next guy sub 500 innings is Denzel Clarke of the A's (yes, the rookie born in Toronto) at #9. The 3 others in the top 5 have 900+ innings. Double Straws and he would be at 24 and easily #1 (tops in the AL is Ceddanne Rafaela of Boston at 16 in 910 innings). Varsho is at 9, in 900 innings he'd be ahead of Rafaela easily. DRS/900 for Varsho = 24, for Straw = 22. This suggests the 2 best CF in the AL are both on the Jays right now. OOA has them tied at #9 in the majors with 7 each. Rafaela has 16. Fielding bible +/- has Straw #1 in AL, Varsho #3 in AL. One can easily make the case that Straw deserves another gold glove this year, but that Varsho also deserves it despite missing so much time. Crazy eh?

Btw, for more shocking is at 1B: Ty France is 4th in MLB for DRS at 1B, 2nd in AL, Vlad is 3rd. Both are well back of #1 Carlos Santana (he has as many DRS as France + Vlad), but it wouldn't be shocking for the AL 1B 3 finalists to have 2 Jays at 1B on it. Weird eh?

C has Heineman #2 in the AL despite being a backup. Kirk is #6. For framing Kirk is #2 Heineman #8. 3B has Clement #2, Barger in the 20's. 2B has Giménez #2 (behind David Hamilton with only 316 innings, fewer than Gimenez somehow) Clement #5. At SS Bo is #63 with -10 DRS shocking no one here I'm sure (he is ahead of Carlos Correa). LF sees Straw and Lukes tied for 9th with 3 DRS each, RF has Lukes tied for 6th.

As a team the Jays are 9th overall (4rd for OF only) in the majors. Texas #1 with 79, Jays have 33. Guess the team gold glove is gone this year. Colorado dead last with -64 (yikes).

team seems happy vladdy is back.

Good job the Jays didn't trade for Ryan, he is a bum....

The Blue Jays look extremely comfortable playing at home (hitting, pitching, defense, baserunning). It would be great if they could secure home field advantage deep into the postseason.

BA's 10 Statcast Standouts (Aug. 25)

Shane Bieber, RHP, Blue Jays
This series is primarily dedicated to up-and-coming prospects. Today, however, we’re going to make an exception and talk about Bieber’s return to the majors.

Not only did Bieber pass the eye test, dotting the glove on most of his pitches, but he also rolled out a brand new, spectacular weapon

Bieber has taken his changeup from a good pitch and made it into one of the best changes in baseball.

Generally speaking, a changeup or splitter at 89 mph with negative vertical break (it drops more than gravity alone) will be a fantastic pitch. The fastball will never blow hitters away, but he uses it masterfully to set up bad swings on the slider and changeup.

Not only is Bieber looking like himself from a command and pitch-tunneling perspective, but he’s added a major new weapon. He might just be the best player acquired at the deadline.

Is Barger banged up? Second game in a row on the bench and wasnt in full uniform at the start of the game. And when it looked like Clement might need to leave due to the HBP, it was Davis Schneider who was getting ready to come in.

under the weather the past couple days apparently.

Barger is - feeling sick, so being given as much time off as possible short of an IL stint. Via BlueSky...

Mike Wilner ‪@wilnerness.bsky.social‬
Addison Barger has been under the weather, says #Bluejays manager John Schneider, so he’s out of the lineup again today.

#Jays want to wait until he’s feeling much better to get him back

With all this up and down of the last guy in the pen who else is on the Buffalo shuttle?

• Been Up: Lazaro Estrada, Easton Lucas, Robinson Piña
• Recently sent down: Braydon Fisher, Paxton Schultz, Mason Fluharty
• Currently up: Justin Bruihl

So 3 more who can be called up in the next couple of weeks. Once sent down you are down for 15 days minimum outside of injury situations.

FYI: I stuck to 40 man guys, and ignored Jake Bloss (IL) and Adam Macko (hasn't been up yet).

Pina is on the IL.

(I'm very bad at comparisons, so take it with large doses of salt)
Nance reminds me a bit of Jim Acker.

"I'm not advocating for Clement in this, but these are the wRC+'s in August: Clement 92, Barger 62, Gimenez 49. I think Clement needs some rest/days off, but Barger and Gimenez are actually struggling more."

Gimenez now up to 93 WRC+ in August. He has a WRC+ of 100 since May 1st. To me, there is a significant difference between a guy like Gimenez who is among the elite of the elite defenders and even very good defenders. Gimenez is 2nd in baseball in defensive value at 2B in Fangraphs, 2nd in OAA, 2nd in runs prevented, etc... despite missing about half the season and playing another bunch of games clearly hobbled by a bad hamstring. He does this every year too. I really do wonder how he'd be at SS and I have to guess he'd be at least good.

It's crazy but Jays have legitimately 6 gold glove calibre guys with Kirk, Gimenez, Clement (as utility), Varsho, and Straw and France. Jays might not win any but it's just an amazing team defense.

An amazing group of stars on defense, with a few slugs mixed in. Despite his amazing plays a few days ago Bo is rated horribly at SS. He is #51 of 53 for guys with 100 or more innings by DRS (-10), #53 of 53 by OAA, statcast FRV also has him 53rd at -9, FG overall defense has him 53rd too (-4.8) as does the Fielding Bible's rPM (-12). Basically anyway you cut it, he is not a good fielding shortstop.

Now, if Bo leaves (very likely) then we'll probably see Gimenez go over to SS (he did start one game there this year) and have Clement (or Schneider) take over 2B, with Barger at 3B making 3B the weakest IF position, far less of an issue than having SS being that.

Now, for offense Bo is top 10 by most measures, #8 by overall offense (FG), #5 by wRC+, #6 by wOBA, etc. He could probably be a solid 2B or LF or DH or whatever but outside of 2B odds are the position is full. I could see the Jays trying to resign him for the OF (his bat would play there) if they didn't have both Santander and Springer hanging around filling DH & LF. Maybe sign him for 1 last year at SS then move him to LF, and maybe CF if Varsho leaves and Bo shows he can handle the OF better than the IF (ala HOFer Robin Yount moving from SS to LF at 29, then CF at 30). It is possible and has happened before to a superstar (Yount had 5.9 bWAR his last year as a SS, dropped to 1.9 in LF, before climbing back to over 5 twice in CF with an MVP mixed in).

Other big negatives on defense are Vlad, Spinger (DH penalty), Santander (all -5 or worse by overall defensive rating), with Wagner doing poorly pre-trade, Clase very poorly for an OF, plus Barger, Schneider, and Loperfido need to work on their defense but it isn't at the hopeless stage. By DRS Vlad is actually tied for 6th in the majors at 1B but does very poorly by OAA (-2), and other measures. Springer is -1 DRS in LF (44 IP), -6 in RF (257 2/3 IP), and at 0 in CF (68 IP) so DH is probably best for him going forward. But then you gotta mix in Santander (1 DRS/46 IP in LF, -2 DRS/118 IP in RF). I'd probably have them share LF/DH next year then move Santander to DH full time in '27 if possible. RF would be Lukes/assorted kids (get Schneider working on RF in spring), Barger has to go to 3B full-time, Clement to 2B, Gimenez to SS - up overall defense and offense that way.

I was ready to strongly object to the idea that Ty France was a gold glove-calibre anything, given he was last among qualified 1B in OAA and FRV in 2024 and middle of the pack the previous three seasons.

However, to my surprise, he is leading all qualified 1B in baseball in OAA and FRV this year. I'm far from convinced he's actually a good defender, but the stats seem to bear out the fact that, this year, he has been quite good defensively.

Although the AL has had five first-time winners in a row the last five years, I'm not convinced he'll make it six, given Carlos Santana is having a strong year and, also, Christian Walker is now in the AL, too.

There is a decent chance that Bo's defensive metrics are being artificially lowered due to the great ranges of Gimenez and Clement beside him.

OAA gets broken down on baseball savant, and Bo actually appears to have uncharacteristic issues moving laterally towards 1b this year.

I'm starting to wonder if the change in Varsho's approach may have made him more vulnerable to LHP, and more platoonable than he used to be.

Random wRC+ Split for no reason other then curiosity, with mlb rank (of 155 qualified hitters / of 381 hitters with min 100pa).

Guererro 158 (#6 / #9)
Springer 153 (#9 / #12)
Schneider 145 (n/a / #17)
Bichette 138 (#20 / #31)
Alejandro 134 (#26 / #42)
Varsho 124 (n/a / #78)
Heineman 122 (n/a / #85)
Barger 117 (#61 / #104)
Lukes 108 (n/a / #143)
Clement 101 (#106 / #181)
Gimenez 100 (n/a / #187)
France 87 (#134 / #252)
Straw 81 (n/a / #278)

The Athletic posted their Power Rankings.

The Blue Jays are tied for 6th, tied with or behind four teams with worse W-L records than them, including Philly, who recently lost Wheeler for the season (while Toronto added Bieber).

I definitely don't trust that France is an elite fielder now or something. Defensive metrics in short periods are not reliable at all. First base is also a hard position to measure I think.

Bo's decline defensively pretty obviously, IMO, about his decline in athleticism combined with never being very good to begin with. He's 44/46 in shortstop sprint speed for example but you only have to look at him to see how much athleticism he's lost. If you look at 2020-2025, Bo is 77/80 in OAA SS with - 26 runs. In the same period, there have been 152 qualified SS seasons. 2025 Bo is the fifth worst season according to OAA. 2021 Bo, 2022 Bo, and 2023 Bo are all in the bottom third as well. 2024 looks like a but of a fluke which isn't uncommon with defensive numbers. This is not something that's going to get better and it would be irresponsible for any team to use him at SS next year.

By the eye test (fallible of course), Bo's issues are lack of range (as noted above) and on tags at the base. Watching Gimenez and Clement on tags, relative to Bo, has been eye opening. Bo has been very solid on making plays that he can get to.

Ryan Borucki on a minor league deal

He's 44/46 in shortstop sprint speed for example

I was curious who the two slower shortstops in the league than Bo are.

When I run the default Savant SS subset (min 10 chances), I actually get 47 candidates with 3 slower than Bo.

1. Brooks Lee, utility, age 24, MIN
2. Orlando Arcia, utility, age 31, COL
3. Corey Seager, SS, age 31, TEX

So the third slowest SS is Brooks Lee playing against the Jays currently. And likely not long for SS.

Second slowest is Arcia who at 31 was released because of his declining bat and is hanging on the fringes of the league. He was exclusively a starting SS last year and still starts there enough this year to qualify, but is more of a utility guy at this point. He's been on a slow decline in sprint speed for awhile. His last above average running season was 2017.

Corey Seager is the slowest SS in the league. This would be the ultimate comp for Bo that an older, slow SS can still have value. But it's also pretty hard to hit like Corey Seager. Seager's last above average speed season was 2020, so he retained his speed a little later than Arcia.

If Bo is determined to play SS long-term, the Blue Jays might be better off using Gimenez at the position in 2026, with Nimmala possibly becoming an option sometime after that (2028?) assuming Nimmala continues to progress.

I’m assuming Bo is going to try to land a long contract of 10+ years (possibly with opt-outs) like Bogaerts, Turner, Seager, etc.

I don’t know that Bo would force his way to SS longterm tbh.

But this year in his contract year imo its definitely smart to keep him there if you want to re-sign him. Moving him this year would be saying goodbye imo.

Mets are calling up Markham's Jonah Tong - congratulations, just wished it was in a Blue Jays uniform.

Looks like Eovaldi is out for the year. Thought Rangers maybe had a run in them but seems unlikely now. In fact, the playoffs seem mostly set. Not in who finishes where but in terms of who will make it. KC is 4 back of Seattle but Seattle is also a significantly better team. Reds are only 2.5 back of Mets so maybe they can catch them but Mets still seem better. It might be a very boring September got casual fans. (once again, expanded playoffs don't make things more exciting, they just allow cheap teams to pretend they are close to the playoffs to justify not spending.)

There is zero chance the Jays move Bo off SS this year (huh?), and it's too early to suggest that it would be irresponsible to use him there next year. He's very good at turning double plays.

The tricky part is that the Blue Jays have a very good true SS prospect in Nimmala. If Nimmala can take over the position around 2028, then the team wouldn’t need Bo to be their long-term SS. Maybe they could sign him to an expensive 10-year contract, but would that be a good move if he becomes the team’s second baseman or third baseman in two or three years? Bo is going to have to keep hitting a lot if he becomes a very slow 2B or 3B.

Career

Devers (28) 126wrc+
Bichette (27) 121wrc+

This year

Devers (28) 131wrc+
Bichette (28) 128wrc+


Bo can hit a bit.

Funny - online Philly fans are pushing to release Jordan Romano. 8 saves, but 3 blown with 7 holds and an ERA over 8. Giving up dingers as much as last year.

What's the Ober/under on this game?

That is funny.

Springer of George

Definitely, but can he run?
He doesn't dive.
He throws well on the run, but

George moves past Marte and Schwarber into 4th MLB with a 157wrc+.


Next up: Raleigh at 161

Everyone talks about how old Springer is but he's only 2yrs older than Judge.

Yeah, but it's a bell curve and George is near the edge.

Varland keeps struggling.

Maybe drop Varland down the leverage chart for a bit until he gets on track. Could even use someone like Nance instead in those situations, as he has generally pitched well.

Hard to decide who has had a worse night, HP Barrett, Jays RPs, Twins baserunners.

On the positive side of the ledger: Springer’s incredible offensive performance. Lukes’s three hits. Barger’s catch and throw to double up the Twins runner at second. Dominguez’s high-octane K to end the eighth.

Bullpen just sucks recently. Still a bunch of good arms you have to think things will bounce back some but this is painful.

Schneider could have used Dominguez in the ninth, but that would have broken the unwritten “must use Closer (TM) in save situation” rule.

Hoffman is horrible right now.

Hard to decide who has had a worse night, HP Barrett, Jays RPs, Twins baserunners.

Not so hard anymore.

Hell.

Hoffman have any options left? Maybe he could go work out the kinks in Buffalo before he puts the Jays into a wild card spot.

No, not hard at all now. The pen looks cooked and I’m not sure there is anyone you can trust right now.

think a bunch of us were saying that his bullpen shouldn't have much of a hierarchy at the moment.

doesn't help that a 6 man rotation leaves the bullpen short, of course.

StatsCentre
@StatsCentre
·
13m
Most home runs allowed this season by a pitcher in the 8th inning of a game or later:
12- #BlueJays Jeff Hoffman (Via giving up 2 in the 9th tonight to put TOR down 7-4 vs the Twins)
8- Tommy Kahnle
8- Tanner Scott
8- Raisel Iglesias
8- Kenley Jansen
8- Emilio Pagan
8- Josh Hader

The bullpen wasn’t short. Seranthony could easily have pitched the ninth after facing one batter in the eighth.

Hoffman has been pretty good for a couple of months and most of the other guys have been bad so I don't get the criticism that he shouldn't be closing or have been brought in. Going into tonight, since July 11, he's had 15 appearances, gave up 1 run in 3 and 0 in the rest.

short bullpen wasn't just a reference to tonight.

Varland has given up runs his last five outings, three of which have been for less than an inning.

At this point, which is pure recency bias, the arms I might trust the most are Dominguez and....Tommy Nance?

Dominguez has walked over 8 per 9 innings since joining the Jays and he's been a bit protected by being brought in to face mostly righties. Nance has been, along with Hoffman, the best reliever by FWAR since July 1st although obviously in much lower leverage spots. Hoffman has been Jays best reliever since July 1st and since August 1st and just had a blow-up tonight. I don't trust him but I don't trust any relievers and this bullpen is really struggling right now.

I lost some confidence in Hoffman after watching him completely melt down in LA (he was eventually rescued by Fluharty, who struck out Ohtani and got Betts to ground out to end the massive threat Hoffman created). He also walked the leadoff man the other day (the No. 9 hitter I think) which didn’t result in a loss, but did result in a 12-inning game that burned the bullpen.

When I saw Dominguez end the eighth inning in dominant fashion, I thought it might be a good idea to also use him in the ninth, although I knew Schneider would not do that. I know that Hoffman has often been good, but I don’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll be able to close out any given game, especially with a narrow one-run lead.

Add one more voice to the "should have tried Dominguez in the ninth" chorus.

“When I saw Dominguez end the eighth inning in dominant fashion, I thought it might be a good idea to also use him in the ninth, although I knew Schneider would not do that.”

Replace Schneider with “every manager in MLB” and I agree.

With hindsight what was the ideal move last winter for a closer? Checking MLBTR top 50 FA's stats pre-tonight

• #14 Tanner Scott - 4 years $72 mil Dodgers, 0.1 bWAR, 19 saves, 7 blown, 8 holds, 103 ERA+ over 46 2/3 IP.
• #18 Hoffman - 3 years, $33 mil here, 0.6 bWAR 28 Sv, 6 Blown, 0 holds, 102 ERA+ over 54 IP.
• #21 Clay Holmes - converted to starting by the Mets (1.5 bWAR 109 ERA+ over 137 IP) 3/$38 mil
• #22 Carlos Estévez - 2/$22 mil, 1.5 bWAR, 34 saves, 6 blown, 0 holds, 153 ERA+ in 57 IP for KC
• #34 A.J. Minter - 2/$22 mil, middle man, just 13 games/11 IP this year due to needing surgery in May.
• #38 Kirby Yates - 0 WAR 1/$13 mil, 3 Sv, 2 Bl, 13 holds, 32 IP for the Dodgers 100 ERA+
• #40 Andrew Kittredge - 1/$10 mil with O's, 2 sv, 1 bl, 12 holds, 41 IP 103 ERA+
• #42 Tommy Kahnle - 1/$7.75 Tigers, 9 sv, 4 bl, 13 holds, 84 ERA+ over 48 2/3 IP
• #47 David Robertson - 1/$16 (pro rated) Philly, 0 Sv, 0 Bl, 3 Holds, just 6 1/3 IP 329 ERA+
• unranked: Kenley Jansen - 1/$10 LAA, 23 Sv, 1 Bl, 0 Holds, 1.8 bWAR 139 ERA+ over 50 IP
• unranked: Aroldis Chapman - 1/$10.75 Boston, 25 Sv 2 Bl, 4 holds, 390 ERA+ over 51 IP, sigh, scumbags keep succeeding stateside.
• Yimi Garcia - 2/$15 here, 3 Sv, 4 Bl, 6 Hold, 0.1 bWAR in 21 IP 111 ERA+ then hurt.
• Jordan Romano - 1/$7.75 mil Philly, 8 Sv, 3 Bl, 7 Hold, 54 ERA+ in 42 2/3 IP

So with perfect hindsight Jansen would've been ideal (I remember pushing a lot for him, but was very happy with Hoffman). Dodgers blew a LOT on Scott & Yates and got about what we've gotten from Garcia & Hoffman. Relievers are a crapshoot and it is proven year-in year-out. It is rare you get a Rivera or Henke who you can count on every year to be a stable strong closer. Just remember that when complaining about Hoffman after days like today. Who did you push for last winter? Who did you want here at the trade deadline? David Bednar looked like the best option but 3 saves/3 blown as a Yankee suggests he wasn't a lock either. Jhoan Duran? 7 saves, 1 blown - Phillies have to be super-happy with that, just 2 runs allowed both in that blown save game - cost them 2 top 100 pitching prospects in Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel (1 in the majors for 25 IP pre-trade).

So yeah, last winter signing Jansen instead of Hoffman, then trading for Duran mid-season somehow (given the cost I fear it would've taken Yesavage and Khal Stephen which would've been way too much imo). That is perfect hindsight. Anything else wouldn't have been much better.

The baseball gods pointing out that maybe the Jays shouldn’t have sent down one of their best relievers (without an overly compelling reason) is just so baseball.

Varland needs to get some low leverage work.

I assume you are talking about Fisher. I won’t rehash Magpie’s nice explanation of the options, but if you sent someone else down it would have sucked in a different way. Pick your poison.

And would it made any difference today? And given the brief amount of time he’ll be gone will it really matter? 

Not sure about Varland. Maybe a bit of low leverage will do him good. He’s been hashing it up since acquisition but it’s such a tiny sample size. Let’s hope his 2025 Minnesota numbers are for real. Still not bad as a throw in on the Ty France deal…

The crux of Magpie’s explanation was that it made sense to keep Fluharty as a second LH. Fair enough if that was the plan. Except that lasted 4 games before they sent Fluharty down. I wasn’t limiting my comment to just last night’s game - the pen, and it’s RH relievers, have been struggling for a bit now. Sending Fisher down wasn’t the end of the world or even without some logic, but losing one of your best relievers has consequences and baseball has interesting ways of highlighting those consequences:)

it's easy to apply hindsight. i still don't love the varland trade, more because of the asset surrendered, but the pitch mix and lack of long term record will always scream Swanson trade to me. he's clearly not this bad, but relievers are so unpredictable. who saw jason adams becoming one of the league's most consistent and best RP? not me. did anyone here cry "the one that got away" when he left?

with all that said, Dominguez probably shouldn't appear in the 9th inning outside of occasions where you have a battery that simply cannot hit fastballs. his control is too frequently erratic and he's also a guy that, iirc, scuffled when the O's tried him in save/higher leverage usage.

the pen should return to form. my biggest concern is that hoffman seems to go through streaks of being lights out and then stretches of being entirely hittable. he is agressive and always in the zone. we saw it last year in the playoffs and i'm not sure it would be wise to assume he's closing games in october. but if varland was the insurance policy...yikes. maybe the jays could call up Rojas to fill the role /s

Realistically is there enough time left for the Red Sox to take the division?

12 homers in 54 innings - Someone is earning the moniker "Homer Hoffman".

Do not get this Dominguez should have kept going thing at all. Hoffman had 9 scoreless outings in a row before giving up one run against Miami. His last blowup was July 11th. He's been a much better pitcher than Dominguez and was starting the inning fresh.

https://x.com/theScore/status/1960683314815046093

For those of us who don't use that site, a quick summary?

Summary:

Helsley booed off Citi Field mound after latest meltdown with Mets
The Associated Press

For those of us who don't use that site, a quick summary?

An article on "The Score" titled "Ryan Helsley booed off Citi Field mound after latest meltdown with Mets. (Crying emoji)"

Heineman Career:

MLB (28-34): 442pa, .288babip, .329obp, 90wrc+, 5.3war/650
AAA (24-34): 1538pa, .313babip, .356obp, 96wrc+
AA (23-27): 674pa, .285babip, .351obp, 103wrc+


Given his very good glove back there, i've wondered since we first picked him up a few years ago why Heineman never really got much of a shot to be a backup C in the bigs.

lol



Underdog MLB

@UnderdogMLB
Mets vs. Jhoan Duran in the 9th:

single
single
single
single

Mets win 6-5

I think we’re headed for a close finish in the AL East, maybe a photo finish. The Blue Jays are having some issues and NYY and Bos have comparatively soft schedules (for example, the Yankees have seven (!) games remaining against the White Sox). The Blue Jays are in the pole position, but if they think they can coast to the division title at this point, I think they’re badly mistaken.

The bullpen looks shaky right now with an ERA of over 5 since August 1. Hoffman and Rodriguez seem to get rattled when runners get on and give up walks and/or home runs. I don't know what's going on with Varland but he seems to be getting worse with each outing.

You just reminded me to check something....

Playoffs Bullpens since Aug 1

ERA-

2. DET 75
6. CHC 81
7. SDP 81
9. MIL 82
13. BOS 86
14. LAD 86
18. PHI 99
21. NYM 112
23. TOR 113
25. SEA 120
26. NYY 121
29. HOU 131


FIP-

2. CHC 78
4. MIL 80
6. PHI 86
7. SDP 87
13. BOS 96
16. LAD 100
17. NYY 100
19. NYM 103
22. TOR 113
23. SEA 113
27. DET 122
30. HOU 135


xFIP-

2. CHC 73
3. PHI 82
4. SDP 86
5. NYY 87
7. MIL 92
9. SEA 93
16. NYM 98
17. BOS 99
21. DET 106
22. TOR 110
23. HOU 110
26. LAD 111

Since July 27th the Jays' RPs have the worst ERA in baseball at 5.97. Worse than the Rockies' 5.81, which includes the 45-6 series (obviously a bunch of those runs were off of the starters too).

Not great!

Wonder what the RP numbers look like dating back to April 2024.

Clement has a hairline fracture in his finger, and he needed stitches in his leg from yesterday’s collision at third base. He’s out of the lineup tonight.

The more I think about it, the more it seems the Blue Jays need Santander to return and be a productive bat in the lineup. The competition now and in the postseason will be fierce and the team could use another weapon.

I’m not sure that a lot is going on with Varland that wasn’t going on all year. He’s been giving up a ton of hard contact all year but somehow wasn’t getting punished for it - now he is. I said the other day that he gives me Billy Koch vibes - the raw stuff looks great, individual ABs and even outings can look dominant but at the end of the day the results are worse than you’d expect because of the amount of hard contact.

I don't see what you're seeing, Nigel. Looking at Fangraphs, His hard-hit rate with the Jays is 62% (was 28%), the average exit velocity is 96mph (was 89), his HR/FB is 28% (was 10%), his first-pitch strikes are 56% (was 66%), and his IFFB are 14% (was 23%).

I have no idea what specifically is wrong (though the knuckle-curve and slider run value drops give hints), but it's more than just the runs that are different from his time in Minnesota.

yeah kinda starting to feel like all these cutesy pitching plan shenanigans are taking away from that whole "trying our best to win" thing we had going.

love seeing Schneider reward Schneider for starting Schneider against a RHP>

Great job by Davis. The Blue Jays hitters battled SWR that inning.

Can't get back to a normal rest 5 man starting staff and 8 man bullpen quick enough, imho.

You may be correct Spifficus - I was looking at Baseball Savant for the past three years and Varland has been in the bottom 15-20% in each of those years in both hard hit % and barrel % (in fact bottom 10% though stretches). I should have said that this year isn't really any different from that perspective than previous years.

Hopefully Varsho didn’t injure himself on that play. He hit the wall hard and looked kinda woozy after the impact.

Not sure why Barger keeps hitting second. He's been struggling for quite some time. Lukes makes so much more sense there.

Boy the ump is very bad this game. I mean, the number of obvious mistakes is crazy.

Red Sox have been getting some good starting pitching lately. Tonight it’s Bello’s turn.

Y’all can thank me later…After that post, Bello gave up a walk and a double and it’s 2-1 O’s.

Wow, the Blue Jays are in a deep team funk. Might go 4-5 in their nine-game stretch against bad teams.

Wow are they throwing it around.

Geez, this is like a softball game - dingers dingers and more dingers.

Ahh, ok, that makes more sense, Nigel. I just had been looking at this yesterday, so I was having a "Wait, am I crazy?" moment while I was reading your post, so I had to make sure my eyes weren't lying to me.

Barger swung at three balls that were not remotely close to the plate (and another that wasn't all that close either) that at bat. He's going up swinging at everything and pitchers just aren't throwing strikes because they don't have to.

Barger striking out against Thomas Hatch (FIP 5.26, 6.86 K/9, 5.03 BB/9) in an important situation is…less than impressive.

Two-run HR for Rafaela in the top of the ninth, now 3-2 Boston over Baltimore.

You don’t see an infield double every day…

Apparently that curve was pretty rough. so many strikeouts in key situations. 

That 3rd and 2nd, one out in the 6th inning with Springer and Barger both whiffing, might be the game right there (hopefully the home 9 has another rally in them)…

Not sure if the Twins are just feeling antsy tonight or that they’ve legitimately got something on the Jays pitchers (Nance and Dominguez are rather deliberate and slow to the plate). Might be something to be wary of against the Brewers as well, funny enough the guy probably best at holding runners is the guy they’re pushing back in the rotation next series…

BB, 1B, 3B, HR 8th c'mon.

(The Brewers lead the NL in steals and stolen base attempts, fyi)

Straw as pinch hitter in this situation is a real gut punch.

What is that weird thing Genesis Cabrera is doing with the ball before his pitches — pressing it firmly into the heel of his glove?

Vive le France!

Jays relief pitching is so bad that even their former relievers are getting hit (Hatch and Cabrera).

BB, 1B, 3B, HR 8th c'mon.
All those PH made that impossible, but I'll take a France HR. 

I’m enjoying France this summer: the culture, the food, the timely hitting.

Baseball is pretty cool.

Let’s go!!!

Barger saving it for the biggest moment.

Hoff time?

Greenfrog, I believe he is getting the split finger grip on the ball, and you need to jam it in to get it firmly in there.

A lot of pitchers start with a split finger grip in the glove as it is easier to switch from it to another pitch but its hard to get the ball into a split finger grip without giving away what you are doing.

Which Hotel Hoffman are we getting? Surely he used up all the badness last night, no…

What a hit by Barger.

Not sure why Vladdy watched that hittable breaking ball go by on the first pitch of the next PA.

(Fastens seat belt for the top of the ninth)

Myles Straw range.

Tidy win.

Hoffman started the inning 2-0 on the first batter, then buckled down and got the save. Good job.

Thanks for the explanation, Gerry. Makes sense.

(Exhale)

Are you not entertained?

The off day for the relief squad couldn't have come at a better time.

That was an ugly win and a beautiful win at the same time. Can't help but delight in thinking of the gnashing of teeth by Yankee and Red Sox fans who probably thought they were going to gain a game on us.

Okay they did what they had to do and took the rubber match.
On to the Brewers...

Schneider deserves credit for managing a great game, especially in the 8th inning. He made all the right moves and even had Hoffman warming up while still trailing... full confidence in his veterans to perform, and they did not disappoint. I think he's the AL manager of the year.

Shoutout to Davis Schneider, two home runs, a walk, and three runs scored tonight. .873 OPS. Incredible rebound by him in 2025.

Wonder if RJ Schreck could end up being the next Davis (older LF type who hit up a storm in the high minors for the Blue Jays).

And tonight the bullpen provides 4.1 scoreless, just two hits. And I was not expecting Tommy Nance and Justin Bruihl... well, I wasn't really expecting them to be on the active roster at this point.

Springer moves into a tie with Raleigh for 3rd mlb in wrc+ at 158.

Next up - Ohtani at 168.

Tigers down 4-0 early. Jays could move back into 1st AL tonight.

Interesting to look at the standings and think of the past ways for reaching the playoffs.

• League winners only (pre 1969): Jays/Tigers repeating 1987 in a death match for the title. Red Sox 4 back, Astros 4 1/2.
• 4 divisions, 1 winner per div (69-93): tougher as you need to split leagues into 2 divisions. But odds are Tigers/Jays death match still, Houston Seattle in a good battle for the West (1 1/2 between them) with KC close by (3 back of Seattle, 4 1/2 from Houston).
• 3 divisions, 1 WC (94-11): Same 3 leaders but Boston/NYY 1/2 game apart in battle with Seattle 2 back of Boston. That'd have been fun
• 3 divisions, 2 WC (12-19) See above but 2 make it, one doesn't with a very, very strong incentive to win your division and avoid the 1 game playoff.
• 2020: division winners, 2nd place teams, then 2 best others. That would put Boston-Seattle-KC as in, plus NYY & Rangers. Cleveland 1/2 a game out, Tampa 3 out, LAA 5 out.
• Current: 2021-now: 3 wild cards. Just look at the standings. Boston/NYY/Seattle, Jays/Houston/Tigers all likely in with KC 3 out, Texas 4 1/2, Cleveland 5.

The massive 16 team playoff system for 2020 has the most teams in it, but the 3 methods pre-2020 also would've been fun this year. I suspect post-expansion we'll see a return to 2020's method or something similar (division winners plus next 4 teams with 4 divisions per league).

What matters to me is the fun of the Jays fighting for the league's best record despite everything people are complaining about. They aren't a perfect team, but they are a lot of fun.

Tigers lose their 4th in a row.

Jays back alone in 1st in the AL.

And this weekend's series at the dome is now officially the battle of the 2 league leaders and top 2 teams in baseball.

Stumbled upon some trivia and since there’s the off day coming up, here goes: can you name which team in either league has gone the longest without a 20 game winning pitcher, and name said pitcher?

Bonus additional no-prize if: you can name the Blue Jays last 20 game winner (plus the year!) and… there is one MLB franchise that has never had a pitcher win 20 games, but also it isn’t the longest drought in that particular league.

Rockies never had a 20 game winner.
Seems kinda obvious, but I was surprised that Ubaldo Jimenez got to 19.

J. A. Happy won 20 in 2016 which isn't that long ago.
Robbie Ray won the Cy Young winning only 13 games. The Jays had a horrible pen that year.

Are Popkins and the other hitting coaches under contract beyond 2025?

Did the Jays provide any reason why they used Lauer the way they did?

When he was pulled from the rotation, I assumed he would be used out of the pen in some capacity, but he ended up not pitching to one live batter for 10 days between starts.

The fact he struggled last night was unsurprising to me, even if the extent of his struggles was unexpected.

Both Colorado and J.A Happ in 2016 are correct.

There's really no comparison between Schneider and Schreck. Davis was a HS pick that spent 7 years in the minors. RJ signed as a college senior and moved up quickly over 3 years. He's only "older" because he stayed in school so much longer. Schreck also plays all three outfield spots almost evenly (although CF is a bit of a stretch). Davis is a below-avg infielder who has made himself into an average LF.

The Jays started Lauer last night to line up the rotation for the 2 big series against the Brewers and Yankees. Thus, Bieber, Gausman and Scherzer against Milwaukee, Bassitt, Berrios and Lauer against the Reds, and then Bieber, Gausman and Scherzer against the Yankees.

I don't think this is set in stone and after last night I think they need to rethink things. Lauer was not sharp at all after not pitching for a number of days. Caleb Joseph said after the game that Lauer had 11 balls hit off him that had a velocity of 100 MPH or more. 11! I don't know why he wasn't given some work in the bullpen to keep him sharp.

The other thing about their proposed pitching plan is that Berrios will have 9 days between starts and I can imagine how that will go. I just don't think the 6 man rotation works, especially when you have a couple of off days and a veteran pitching staff used to regular usage.

6 man rotation is always dumb. it's not good for the starters. it's very tough on the bullpen. and it doesn't even really rest the starters much because you end up forcing them to pitch longer every outing because your bullpen is short.

it's very tough on the bullpen

I suppose, but they will be back to an 8 man pen in a few days.

Being older than dirt, I can't help remembering how the Jays once won a division title with a three man bullpen (the fourth most used guy, Frank Wills, made 20 relief appearances that year.) The idea that seven relievers might not be enough... 'twas a thing not dreamt of in my philosophy.

There's definitely a comparison between Schreck and Schneider if you think age+level is more relevant than years in the system.

that being said, it does seem like Schreck likely has better OF defense than Schneider, just by virtue of getting time at CF. then again, Schneider got a lot of time at 2B and Schreck's never done that as far as I know.

but i do think that Schreck and Schneider are both similarly more exciting statistically compared to most of the other older prospects we've had come through in recent years like Horwitz Wagner Loperfido etc.

Thanks, Marc. I compared Schreck and Schneider based on:

-Age: Schreck is 25 and Schneider is now 26; both were older than your typical prospect when they were on the cusp of the majors. BA calls Schreck "an intriguing late-bloomer."

-Career MILB offensive performance: Schreck .857 OPS, Schneider .826 OPS, with similar OBP and SLG

-Position: Schneider has made himself into an adequate LF, while Schreck "plays a fringe-average corner outfield with an average arm. He’s filled in at center field, but is likely stretched at the position from a range perspective" (BA)

-Lottery ticket: Schneider was drafted 849th overall, Schreck was drafted 277th overall

Schneider needs to get more time vs RHP. He never really had any splits and has been killing the ball since being recalled. Since August 10th (after Colorado), Barger has a 26 WRC+, Clement 50, and Lukes 66 . Schneider is at 180. If you go back to July 1st, with current Jays, Clement only has 0.3 WAR in over 200 PAs and Barger only 0.6 in 184. Schneider has 1.2 WAR in 105 PAs.

I think i'm finally coming to a conclusion as to what my ideal lineup would be come playoffs, and tbh I think it becomes pretty obvious as soon as you embrace the fact that Schneider and Lukes are likely fulltime players, not platoon guys.

This is assuming no Santander of course.

With 1yr Stats (with wRC+ vRHP / vLHP)


1. DH Springer 168 / DH Springer 128
2. LF Schneider 155 / LF Schneider 137
3. 1B Guerrero 141 / 1B Guerrero 150
4. SS Bichette 127 / SS Bichette 129
5. CF Varsho 147 / CF Varsho 34
6. C Alejandro 125 / C Alejandro 111
7. RF Lukes 106 / RF Lukes 130
8. 3B Barger 116 / 3B Barger 79
9. 2B Gimenez 98 / 2B Clement 158

B. UT France 91 / UT France 108
B. OF Straw 77 / OF Straw 98
B. IF Clement 65 / IF Gimenez 29
B. C Heineman 113 / C Heineman 201



With 3yr Stats


1. DH Springer 119 / DH Springer 98
2. LF Schneider 109 / LF Schneider 115
3. 1B Guerrero 140 / 1B Guerrero 146
4. SS Bichette 114 / SS Bichette 110
5. CF Varsho 93 / CF Varsho 105
6. C Alejandro 102 / C Alejandro 105
7. RF Lukes 111 / RF Lukes 102
8. 3B Barger 103 / 3B Clement 117
9. 2B Gimenez 93 / 2B Gimenez 76

B. UT France 97 / UT France 104
B. OF Straw 72 / OF Straw 79
B. IF Clement 86 / IF Barger 59
B. C Heineman 95 / C Heineman 201


The 1- and 3- year splits don't line up perfectly, but they're close enough imo that I think this lineup makes the most sense.

You can definitely play around with the matchups at the bottom of the order, but I see a top-7 there that you don't really have to waste much time thinking about platoons for. You can just play them every day and not worry about it.

The biggest question imo should be whether Clement plays instead of Barger or Clement vLHP.

There's a very nice story at the Athletic about Bobby Shantz, the oldest living MVP (he turns 100 in a few weeks; he won in 1952 when he went 24-7, 2.48 for the A's.) Shantz was before my time (some of them were, honest!) - all I've seen of him is video from the legendary seventh game of the 1960 World Series. (He worked four scoreless innings as the Yankees rallied from a 4-0 deficit to take a 7-4 lead, but Stengel left him in too long and ... oh, it was an incredible game, everyone should watch it at least once!)

Shantz started his career playing for Connie Mack himself, and he finished up with the doomed 1964 Phillies, who famously lost 10 straight to blow a six game lead with two weeks left. Shantz made 5 scoreless appearances out of their pen during that losing streak, but he did blow one game to the Braves - he took a one run lead into the ninth., but two singles and an error set up a bases-loaded triple by the Braves outstanding rookie, a guy named Rico Carty. The web of the game.

The thing is Ugly that hitter development isn't consistent... there's lots of hitters that develop at different speeds... Christian Walker and Brent Rooker are two that come to mind.

The Jays are in a bit of a bind because Berrios deserves to be in the 'pen out of the six... Lauer has been one of the most consistent pitchers and might be their second-best option... but now he's been thrown off. But Berrios "deserves" to start because of what he's done in the past... which is kinda baloney.

Seems clear the planned playoff rotation is Bieber, Gausman, and Scherzer. Order to be determined. #4 is probably a tandem start of 2 (Bassitt/Lauer would be my guess) with Berrios off the playoff roster. Pen is always a crapshoot, but Hoffman-Dominguez-Little-Varland-Rodriguez-Nance seem likely. Final 2 slots up in the air between Bruhil/Fluharty, and Fisher/Schultz - one of each group (LH/RH that way) at the moment I'd expect Fluharty/Fisher but things can change with a month+ to go. Nance also isn't a lock.

Bench/lineup will be interesting as well.
Lineup: Kirk-Vlad-Gimenez-Bo-Clement-Barger-Varsho-Springer with LF a platoon of Lukes/Schneider or doing a big juggle with Clement 2B/Barger 3B/Lukes RF/Schneider LF at times.
Bench: Heineman, Straw both locks, whichever one isn't in the field of Lukes/Schneider/Gimenez/Clement, and one open slot for France/Loperfido/Clase/Jimenez to fight over, unless Santander returns in which case he is starting and no LF platoon or that platoon is in RF with Barger at 3B and Clement/Gimenez sharing 2B.

Phew, so many moving parts. Can't recall it ever being like this with 15/16 or 22/23 or 85-93. 2020 was too chaotic to recall much now.

I am thinking Baltimore because Mussina topped at 19 with the Os. Not familiar with their pitchers beyond that.

NL: Maybe the Giants? Bumgarner topped at 18.

I think they have contention plans.
Lauer could have have been used in long relief but they kept him for a blowout.

The pen is pushed but they have off days and one spot on the Buffalo shuttle.

And the roster is expending.

It is Baltimore for the AL! But not Mussina… you have to go back a little further than that.

Yeah, I said I don't know Orioles aces older than Mussina.

Ugly, I think players are probably right ones but no way you go four righties at top of lineup and 3 lefties at bottom. Too easy to match up against for relievers. Switch Lukes and Schneider and I think the issue is solved.

I can’t think of any Oriole after Mike Flanagan in 1979. There must be someone…

I remember that Scott McGregor who was part of some great Orioles staff won 20 games.

I would guess Pirates in the NL for longest without?

Doug Drabek won 22 in 1990.

Funny - the random page thing on the 'hot topics' caused Max's signing to come to the top. Fun to look at - a few complaining that we'd lose Vlad & Bo after 2025, loved electric carrot saying "I went into my CS time machine and this is what I found out. The Blue Jays signed Vladdy to a long term contract." It was the big issue on all our minds at the time. So electric carrot - do the Jays go deep into the post season? Get back on that time machine! Also farm rankings pre-season BA 23, 24 ESPN, 27 Bleacher Report, 24 Athletic, 30 USA Today. Then we had a year with most of the pitchers staying healthy (WooHoo!). Also ZiPs had the Jays coming in last in the AL East with 82 wins, Baltimore & NYY fighting for the top at 89 each. Jays at 78 wins now so that 82 could be passed next week with any luck. The O's will be sub 500 and dead last in the division. Also tons of talk about Alonso - remember those rumors? 3.0 bWAR and a 142 OPS+ suggest he'd have been a lot better signing than Santander was, but odds are the Jays were just being used to up the Mets offer.

So 23 guys have hit for the Jays this year and 12 have a 100+ wRC+ on the season. 18 had 50+ PA 11 with 100+ wRC+. Lowest PA with a 100+ wRC+ are Ty France (71, 112) and Loperfido (89, 159). Santander's 62 in 209 PA stands out in a bad way (worst on the team for 33+ PA). Worst of all is Leo Jimenez at -20 wRC+ in 32 ugly PA (his only RBI came on his home run). Buddy Kennedy is the only guy to get sub 10 PA (6 PA 107 wRC+).

35 guys have pitched, worst ERA goes to Richard Lovelady (1 2/3 IP 21.60 ERA). 28 guys have 5+ IP, 21 with 10+ - from Nance with his 0.90 ERA to Lucas with his devilish 6.66 ERA. 13 starters used so far, from Bieber (1.50) to Fisher (33.75). 30 relievers, from 4 guys with 0 ERA's (most IP among them 4 2/3 by Lucas), to Lovelady's 21.60 ERA. Just 9 relievers have 20+ IP (including Green and Garcia - neither of whom is likely to be here for the playoffs). Cut down to 10 IP and you get a full list of contenders for the playoff pen outside of Yesavage of course. Varland & Dominguez are barely at the 10 IP mark, same for Bruihl & injured Sandlin. Kind of surprising how few relievers have 10+ IP for the team this year. Just seemed like more but I guess that is due to the 16 with sub 10 IP (only Bassitt among them possible for the pen in the playoffs). Fun to speculate on the pen and stuff for the playoffs but odds are we'll see what we'd expect - a 4 man rotation with the 4th being a tandem start (Bassitt/Lauer) and 8 real relievers (from Hoffman to Nance for how pressure will be handled).

" ...loved electric carrot saying "I went into my CS time machine and this is what I found out. The Blue Jays signed Vladdy to a long term contract."

Thanks John for noticing. So far the CS time machine is 2 for 2. I went in and discovered that they Jays also did not sign Juan Soto also.

CS by the way stands for Common Sense. It does not work at all in the playoffs. Too bad!

apparently we just signed Eloy Jimenez to a minor league deal.

I’ll give one more hint: the NL guy is also a hall of famer who passed away semi-recently (like in the past decade).

The Baltimore guy is somebody I’ve heard of but is considerably before my time. He might have retired the year I was born.

thought he was badly injured?

Fine with taking a gamble on Jimenez. Probably nothing but he was an elite hitter in 2020 and 2022 and is still only 28. Let Popkins have a crack at him.

uglyone, from your lineup if the opponent is a LHP starter how crazy would it be to go France at 1st, Vlad at 3b, and Clement at 2b. You could do the defensive replacement to bring Gimenez in and pull France shifting Vlad back to 1st and Clement to 3b after the LHP is gone and/or if you are enough ahead that you want to do the defense for offense.

I know Vlad at 3b is a negative defensively, but France at 1b is better than Vlad, and France in the lineup against LHP rather than Gimenez or Barger seems to be an offensive plus.

Seems something to consider, especially if our starting pitcher isn't a high contact groundball pitcher.

Mark Teixeira is running as a MAGA house candidate.

For fun I looked over at FanGraphs Dodgers page to see their IL. 3 hitters and 9 pitchers on the 60 day (3 TJ, 1 elbow near TJ, 3 shoulder, 1 knee), 2 on the 10 day IL's. 6 more pitchers on the minor league IL, and 4 hitters on the minor league IL.

Jays for comparison have 1 hitter (Santander), 4 60 day pitchers (Bastardo, Francis, Manoah, Burr), 2 10 day pitchers (Garcia, Sandlin), and 12 minor league pitchers on the IL (ouch).

The Dodgers have a rep for shredding arms - 11 ML, 6 minors. But the Jays aren't pikers at it either with 6 ML and 12 minors - so 1 more on the Jays IL vs the Dodgers, but the Jays tend to be minor leaguers not affecting the big club directly. I'd put that down as a major concern, but it seems better than last year.

I see the Red Sox and Yankees have been devouring the also-rans and gaining ground while the Blue Jays went a putrid 5-4 in their 9 game run against also-rans. Hope it doesn't come back to haunt them.

Fine with taking a gamble on Jimenez. Probably nothing but he was an elite hitter in 2020 and 2022 and is still only 28. Let Popkins have a crack at him.

Was reading the thread in reverse order, so thought this comment had simply misspelled Andres.

Years & age don't add up, but the comment could definitely apply to Gimenez as well, only with a higher investment cost.

That 5-4 sequence isn't their worst stretch.

The Jays just want to corner the market on Jimenez's/Gimenez's.

https://x.com/YankeeMandela/status/1961102522573078922

Eloy seems like more of a 2026 lottery ticket than 2025. Curious timing but maybe it’s a case of getting him familiar with the organization first before going the minor league deal route again for next season.

"Springer moves into a tie with Raleigh for 3rd mlb in wrc+ at 158.

Next up - Ohtani at 168."

Schwarber just passed Springer & Raleigh and is at 159.

Springer & Raleigh are tied for 5th btw.

Judge, Kurtz, Ohtani, Schwarber, Spring/Raleigh.

Back to the 20 game winners question, John Smiley won 20 in 91 before leaving the Pirates for the Twins.

I'm wondering if the Reds have fallen short even longer.

Bah! I forgot about Cueto.

Have the Brewers had a 20 game winner since Teddy Higuera?

The Brewers haven’t! Alas that is the second longest drought in the National League.

(Though I suppose technically the Brewers were still in the American League when Higueria pitched for them. So the NL Brew Crew have never had a 20 game winner, now that I think of it)

Mentioning the leaderboard I had to check a few...

• Speed Score: Straw top Jay at 2.9, then Springer at 2.3 (weird to have one of the oldest guys #2 in speed). Kirk is at -5.7, 2nd lowest in MLB among those with 1+ PA. Only Jonathan Aranda of the Rays is rated slower than Kirk. #1 of course is Elly De La Cruz.
• Walk %: Soto is #1 (100+ PA) Schneider #13 at 14.8%. Ernie Clement is the worst Jay at this (no shock) at 4.4%
• K %: Varsho is the worst Jay at 29.6% (worst in MLB is 42.1% for Kyren Paris). Best is Kirk at 10% (#9 in MLB among 100+ PA guys).
• ISO: Varsho is #1 in MLB at 346 (yes, ahead of the big dumper, Judge, and Stanton and everyone else). Clase the worst Jay at 090, then Straw at 103. Jonah Bride worst in MLB at 018.
• BABIP: Tyler Heineman is #9 in MLB at 375. Santander 20th worst at 218.
• wxOBA: Springer is #7 in MLB at 412, then Vlad is at #8 at 410. Santander sucked at 274

A few fun facts there as we wait for the battle of the best of each league tonight.

Kirk and Aranda are 2 Amigos from Mexico.
I believe they have known each other for a long time.