Well, Alex Bregman is no longer an option, he is a Cub.
Bregman wasn't a good fit for the Jays at this point, with Kazuma Okamoto signed for 4 years for $15 mil per. Bregman got 5 at $35 per. Yikes. Bo must be very, very happy right now as the next best IF is Eugenio Suárez, a pure power 3B who was shy of 4 fWAR despite 49 HR, then Luis Arraez who is mostly a 1B now, then Willi Castro who is a 95 wRC+ lifetime guy who is entering his age 29 season hoping for a contract I suspect.
The OF situation is still Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger with Harrison Bader the next in line (122 wRC+ last year after 3 straight years of sub 100 performance - anyone making a big offer to him is likely to be disappointed). Yep picking are slim after the big guys sign.
So who should the Jays chase? I seem to flip flop a lot on this so lets see the assorted forecasts that I have access to for Bo, Tucker, and Bellinger - the only guys worth thinking about imo for the Jays. ZiPS is not available for the Jays or Cubs yet so no Bo or Tucker from that. PECOTA won't be available for a bit unless one pays for Super-Premium and no, I'm not doing that.
- Tucker age 29: FGDC: 4.4 WAR, Steamer 3.7, The Bat 4.8, The Bat X 4.5, OOPSY 4.5 = average 4.38
- Bo age 28: FGDC: 4.0, Steamer 3.6, The Bat 4.4, The Bat X 4.2, OOPSY 4.0 = average 4.04
- Bellinger age 30: FGDC: 3.0, Steamer 2.7, The Bat 2.8, The Bat X 2.3, OOPSY 2.1, ZiPS 3.3 = average 2.7 (non-ZiPS is 2.58)
Bo & Tucker are a lot closer than I expected there. Bellinger a LOT further behind than I expected. If the Yankees really are offering him $30 mil a year for 5 he should take it imo as he is good, just isn't that good.
Given if Bo is signed Clement is benched (avg for him is 1.46 while playing full time), if Tucker is then either Barger (1.62) or Santander (1.12) is benched/traded (Santander projected for about 130 games, Barger around 100). There are also 1001 trade possibilities and other choices internally (Lukes 0.68, Schneider 0.98 - both projected for under 50% playing time so double to get a full season worth). This is all to give a 1000 mile view on what is here, what is possible/likely for 2026 performance. Cost wise as is by far is the cheapest. Bo & Tucker will almost certainly both be looking at Bregman's deal as a starting point. If Tucker doesn't get $400 mil at this point (pre-deferrals) I'd be surprised. Bo I'm figuring is looking at $200 mil as a bottom, $250 as a real possibility while he pushes for $300 mil. Yes, all these figures are insane and make the Okamoto deal look damn good if he is any good (over 2 WAR, ideally 3+).
The Phillies are listed as a strong Bo chaser (meeting Monday so no news on Bo until then at the earliest I'd think). Blue Jays, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, and even the Angels are all after Tucker to some degree. Who will get him? Jays are seen as the favorites but we all know the other teams have deep pockets too and a desire to make headlines. I'd advise the Jays to find a way to sign him before Bellinger signs if possible, as once Bellinger does the Yankees/Mets (whichever loses out) will go nuts for Tucker I suspect. Of course, his agent will feel the same so this is the time to pull out the '2 outs from winning it all, or 2 inches depending how you look at it' and 'great clubhouse, great atmosphere for a family' as he got married in 2024 and has a baby on the way. Just read that Myles Straw was at his wedding so there could be a connection there that helps (Straw offered to babysit if they come to the Jays). Easy to see that team atmosphere will be critical if the dollars are close. I suspect the fact the Jays have Vlad signed for 14 years would also help as it would mean he knows 1 player who will be here for his entire career if he comes - a rare bit of stability in the unstable world of baseball.
We'd all love to have Bo back but with his leg issues and that crazy Bregman deal I gotta think the Jays won't go where Bo will want to be except maybe on a short term 3 year/opt out after each year deal which IMO would be a bad idea.
