That is a very high contract for Bregman. If you do the $ value his last 5 years were worth you get (fangraphs numbers):

2021 $17.1M (2.1 WAR, age 27)
2022 $43.2M (5.4 WAR, age 28)
2023 $35.1M (4.4 WAR, age 29)
2024 $33.2M (4.2 WAR, age 30)
2025 $28.2M (3.5 WAR, age 31)

So that is $156.8M of value (19.6 WAR). 5/35 is paying him $175M for the next 5 years, I.e., expecting his 32-36 years will be *MORE* valuable than his 27-31 years were. It is true that his peak value is very good as 2018-2019 (7.9 and 8.3 WAR respectively for $63.1 and $66.6 M value) so a couple of years like his age 24-25 would make it worth it most likely, but again, do you really figure ages 32-37 to match the very best of his career?

BTW Bo over the last 5 years from fangraphs is:

2021 $38.9M (4.9 WAR, age 23)
2022 $38.6M (4.8 WAR, age 24)
2023 $31.0M (3.9 WAR, age 25)
2024 $2.3M (0.3 WAR, age 26)
2025 $30.6M (3.8 WAR, age 27)

So that is $141.4M of value (17.7 WAR). So Bregman's been slightly better than Bo in value over the past 5 years - basically due to the one down Bo year. But Bo is 4 years younger than Bregman and you'd be paying for years 28+ so an 8 year deal for Bo would cover 4 of the years that are in Bregman's past (age wise) and still end one year before the 5 year deal Bregman signed.

If Bregman is worth 5/35, I think Bo should be worth at least least 7/35 (and 10 year 300M deal wouldn't be out of the question). Of course, I don't think Bregman really ought to be worth 5/35, but we'll see.

If Bo gets 10/30 then Tucker's getting 400 million in some format of years, bonuses and deferrals.

Bregman has skewed the market.

The good thing about the Jays off-sesson is that the Jays are as of right now probably the best team in the AL. Signing Bo or Tucker would be great but after signing Okamoto, they don't need to and if the Bregman contract is a guide, those contracts might get silly.

One thing to remember is that inflation is eroding the value of a baseball dollar by around 5% a year. Something to keep in mind when comparing the size of contracts from a few years ago with the size of contracts now.

Today Law had some positive things to say about the Cubs adding Bregman. As for Boston, he thinks they should add Bo:

“The obvious answer for Boston would be to sign Bo Bichette, who needs to move off shortstop anyway and might be a 5-win player if he slides to third or second and is at least a 55 defender at either spot (which I’m saying is a realistic expectation). I’d rather have Bichette than Bregman anyway, and he’s at least capable of backing up Trevor Story at short.”

Oh, I think signing Bregman is good for the Cubs because nobody in the central spends any money so spending some makes you automatic favourites. Two divisions where almost nobody even tries. Like. If the Tigers spent an extra $20M on a player, they'd be easy favourites but they won't and might win anyway. There's a lot of deferred money in the deal so in the end, it will be similar to Alonso, Schwarber deals which feels a lot more realistic than the way the deal looked without deferrals.

Of note there's significant deferrals for Bregman bringing the AAV down to about $30m.

Sounds like Bichette will get at least 8/240, which will be announced as 8/300+ with deferrals.

"Sounds like Bichette will get at least 8/240, which will be announced as 8/300+ with deferrals."

If that's where Bo ends up then who will pay Tucker more than 35/year and more than 8 years? (he's 1 year older than Bo). At that calculation then Tucker would make $280 before any deferrals or closer to 340 with deferrals....is that exactly where someone said (was it Frangraphs chat?) that Tucker would end up. I thought greenfrog linked to a chat but can't find it. All I see are predictions of 400 million or more from greenfrog and myself for Tucker. If you can get him for 350 with deferrals then that should be a no-brainer.

Red Sox...will they sign Bichette when they need to find a play for Kristian Campbell to play? Will the Phillies sign Bo to 30 million and wouldn't they cost them an additional 30 million in luxury penalties this year (60 million for Bo)?

If the NYY are focusing on Bellinger then the Blue Jays are in a good spot since it looks like these free agents are signing longer term deals with deferrals which suits the Jays well.

*Campbell is at 2B not 3B where Mayer plays.

Two big questions are - what is a win worth now, and how much more is a player's 4th, 5th win worth vs the first 2? Getting 2 WAR is fairly easy (we have lots of guys who could produce that right now on the roster). Getting 3/4 isn't unusual, but 5+ from a single slot is hard. Current Jays who've had a 5 fWAR season are Springer (2019, 2025), Vlad (2021, 2024), and Gimenez (2022). Pitchers are Gausman (2022, 2023), Bieber (2019). Berrios & Cease both have 4's but no 5's.

So getting a 5 win season is a very big deal. Guys who do that regularly are superstars (Bautista did it 4 times in 6 years here, Encarnacion never did, Delgado 3 times, Alomar 6 times, Carter never did, Devo did it his first 3 years here, Barfield twice, Olerud 3 times, Donaldson 5 times, George Bell once). Gives you an idea there. Those figures are for their entire career, not just time here. Ohtani has done it on just hitting 4 of the past 5 years (!!), pitching wise alone in '22 - yeah, he is nutty good ('22 was his worst hitting year of those 5, just 3.6 fWAR on a 142 wRC+). Judge 6 times (3 of past 4 in the 10's). Tucker never has reached 5, 4 times at 4.9, 4's for 5 straight. He is damn close and that makes him seem a good bet to stay in that area for the next few years. Bo was just shy in '21/22 but hasn't cracked 4 since. Now, at 2B Bo might (easier to be average on defense, might up his hitting stats with less pressure on the other side of the ball). But Tucker seems the safer bet to me, and getting over 5 wins at a position has to be the goal. That is how you win.

$70 mil of Bregman's deal is deferred - no details yet on how far out, so no estimate of what the present day value is - critical for figuring out what his contract actually is worth. But $105 mil is locked in over 5 years ($21 mil per) with the remaining $70 ($14 per) being worth less than $14 mil per year, probably closer to $10 per given the Red Sox had a more deferred deal going decades into the future on the table that didn't appeal (they also refused to include a no-trade clause which might be a sticking point for the Jays too with Tucker). When guys sign long term deals they want to be certain they won't be traded at some point without having a say in where they'll go.

Seems cash is #1 still, but stability is also important. It'll be interesting to see how that works for the Jays this winter. So far so good, but will they be able to get that final piece of the puzzle?

The Batters Box Top 30 prospects returns tomorrow for its 22nd edition.

SOSH is describing Bregman’s contract as 5/$155m (present value).

So $31 mil a year - that makes some sense, still a LOT for ages 32-36 seasons. Just shy of 20 fWAR the past 5 years (19.6) which were all prime ones. If the Cubs get 20 WAR over the next 5 I'd be surprised. At that price they are after 15.5 I'd think ($10 mil per WAR roughly) which is still asking a lot. If you go by the usual 0.5 drop per year post 32 and assume age 32 will be as good as projected (3.6 avg of 5 methods) you get 3.6-3.1-2.6-2.1-1.6 = 13 fWAR as a reasonable estimate of what to expect. ZiPS has him at 3.1 which shifts it down a notch to 10.5 which becomes a lot worse. Cubs taking a risk here.

Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
·
1h
The Red Sox believed they were going to land Bregman with their 5-year, $165 million offer. Including his ‘25 deal, they would’ve paid him $205m over six years, w deferrals. Real disappointment in the organization today.

some of this will probably repeat what I said last night but I still don't think Tucker get 500 million in present value.

But that's 40% of Bregman's deal in deferrals and 40% of 400 is 160, leaving a present-day value of 240 - I DO think he can/will beat THAT which provokes the question of how much the announced value would be before deferrals.

Like I said last night, the hard floor is now 8 years at 35 just as a direct match to Bregman's announced deal (since he's 3 years younger). That would be 280 and there's probably some desire to at least top 300 so I speculated a ninth season (age 29-37) to make it 315, and if your deferrals mean you still have the highest AAV of the off-season then that's at least 32 so the actual value would be 288.

As a comp between Bregman and Tucker (who have very similar value) that's entirely reasonable and still doesn't flirt with 400. You could go so far as a tenth year (which might be necessary if regrettable eventually and still only get to 350 (and 320 present day)

Newest rumors have the Jays willing to go longer than other teams for Tucker. If we go by the 1/2 a WAR loss post age 32 theory we'd be paying for 4.4-4.4-4.4-4.4-3.9-3.4-2.9-2.4-1.9-1.4-0.9-0.4 to cover ages 29-40 or 34.8 fWAR over 12 years. At $400 mil that would be $11.5 mil per WAR, a touch expensive but not insanely over the $10 mil per WAR I think it goes for now. To get to the $10 mil per you'd need some deferrals to push the value down to $340-$350 mil which certainly seems possible, if not likely. I'd happily go to 12 years if it just pushes the AAV down. There is a big assumption there of staying strong through 32 before decline sets in. Still, at least the idea of going over $300 mil isn't insane and there is a strong shot of him having value through age 37, but 38-40 almost certainly will be as a bench guy trying to push his way into the HOF.

should have addressed Bo I guess. I think clearly he'll get more total because of age. Four years of theoretical prime carries a lot of vale - the sticking point is whether any team wants to go to 8-9 years (the Red Sox have never signed a hitter for more than 3) If, say, the Philies want to go seven (or more?), he should get to and past 200 but I still don't see where he'd get 300 - and I wonder if there's a world where he tries to take the same road as Bregman and sign a short, high AAV deal with opt outs. That would be a gamble on his own health, mainly. If healthy he should match his historical trend line for plate production for several years yet.

Bellinger? Feels like he'll hold out until February if necessary and may find that no one will give him 7 years. But while his inconsistency is a worry, I'm inclined to think that if they don't sign Tucker (say the Mets go nuts for him) that defaulting to Bellinger at 6x30 isn't crazy (particularly if, broken record, deferrals) because it scoops the Yankees, it adds a needed lefty hitter and even more flexibility. AND it reduces the pressure to keep Varsho next winter.
I'd be less confident consistency wise but not disappointed in such a signing at all.

Bo has a draft pick attached. I think the difference for a pick used to be valued around $1m/yr ten years ago so what? 1.37m inflated…about an extra $10m on his deal.

If Bo ages normally then what does his add up to?

4-4-4-4-4-3.5-3-2.5 covers 8 years, 9-12 are 2-1.5-1-0.5

So 8 years = 29 WAR or $290 mil of value. 9-12 adds 5 more but as I've said 2 or less WAR is cheap on a per year basis so that wouldn't add $50 mil of value but a team might be willing to pay that hoping he'd have a late burst (often HOF'ers do) while trying to get to the HOF. So 12 year deal for $340 mil could potentially be justified if you really think he will age at a normal pace despite his significant injuries to date that have sapped his speed and now are forcing him to move to 2B or 3B. Myself, I'd be looking at him as an old 28 next year - those injuries I'd assume aged him 4 years, thus 4-4-3.5-3-2.5-2-1.5-1 for the next 8 years or 21.5 fWAR or $215 mil of value. Going past that is taking a big risk imo. I could see going 10 years for $225 just to spread the cost out a bit, but accepting those final years will be a 100% write off.

I’ve also been of the mind that Bellinger is a better fit compared to Tucker if you can avoid term and spend the savings elsewhere in the future. I like the defence and positional flexibility. That said, I think Yankee stadium (or other short porch right fields) are better suited to his game. I also think as long as they think Bo can stick at middle infield long term, it’s hard to pass up a guy that virtually gives you 200hits a year as a foregone conclusion and makes roster construction a lot easier.

This is probably an extreme long shot, but could there be a way for the Blue Jays to add Peralta — creating a super-rotation for 2026 — and subtract Berrios (and maybe Lauer) by shipping them to Milwaukee along with cash, a MLB-ready position player (someone like Lukes), and a couple of good prospects to make the deal happen?

And then sign Tucker?

I know — highly unlikely. Just trying to figure out a creative way to improve the team for a prime contending year and also clear out an unwanted contract or two.

TamRa: "Red Sox have never signed a hitter for more than 3"

Is not at all accurate (unless maybe you mean the current GM, not sure there). Off the top of my head they made a very good long term FA signing 25 years ago when they signed Manny Ramirez to an 8 year $160M contract. That was 25 years of baseball inflation ago, and that was a very big contract (but not quite's A-rod's "crazy" $250M contract), but that Manny contract turned out quite well for them. WAR over the next 8 seasons: 5.2, 5.3, 5.8, 3.3, 2.9, 2.9, 1.2, 5.2. This was for his age 29-36 seasons. The last season they didn't fully get as they traded him (with some others) for Jason Bay in his prime.

I like your style, greenfrog!

A week or two ago, I was musing about a Marte trade along similar lines.

Certainly the Jays have been working the possibilities with every ounce of imagination this offseason.

If not a SP upgrade, the Jays could seek some prospect capital from a trade, given the challenge they will face in future drafts, as a top-tier performing team paying a a punitive tax.

Trevor Story? Willson Contreras?

greenfrog - an interesting idea but I can't see it happening. Peralta is making just $8 mil in '26, Milwaukee had the best record in the majors, his projected WAR is 3.0 (avg of 4 methods) 2.5 by ZiPS so odds aren't high that he'll be a lot better than internal options despite his very good '25. If they'd do a deal that takes away Berrios then I'd be very happy but I can't see a tight cash team like Milwaukee trading him for less than 2 quality pitching prospects.

I suspect right now the Jays plan is to use Berrios as the #5, and Ponce as #6/long man along with Lauer (who I see as trade bait). If a deal emerges that takes Berrios, great, if not, so be it. The rotation will probably have a couple of holes in '27 so Berrios and Ponce can cover those with Cease & Yesavage, leaving one open slot for '27/'28. Not perfect, but it works. Kids cover 6/7/8 while the Jays debate a kid for 5 or resign Gausman or Bieber or sign a free agent (Skubal if Rogers is up for it)...

Yeah, there are 1001 variables and many we don't know. Is Berrios healthy and determined to prove he deserves more? Is Lauer as good as he seemed? And how much can Rogers spend? Is there any interest in Santander? Is there a closer out there who is available who'd be better than Hoffman? And so on.

For 27 the Jays need to figure out if Varsho is staying around or not? Gausman-Bieber-Lauer do you try to keep 0-1-2-3 of them? Is Springer worth resigning? Pick up Straw's options (super unlikely)? Garcia also a free agent post '26. Remember, if you run the Jays you don't think of 26 as the be all/end all, you need to plan for '27, '28 and beyond even with the collective agreement being impossible to guess. Thus the value of long term deals - you know those guys will be here as I can't see any agreement ripping up past deals. A harder luxury tax is possible/probable, but a full cap won't happen without the loss of multiple ML seasons. An international draft is still a strong possibility, thus making signing guys this year critical. Reduced minor leagues is possible (ugh) which makes top notch prospects who are close even more valuable, while longer term ones less attractive (such as IFA's). Lots and lots of variables.

"Off the top of my head they made a very good long ..."
I had just read that on MLBTR and why my brain didn't shout "Deavers!!" I don't know. Except I was surely reading it as bringing in a free agent, not extending their own player.
But looking back you correctly identified my mistake:
"Some of that, of course, has to do with the contract length. Perhaps an eight-year deal for Bichette, which would run through his age-35 season, would be just as or even more appealing to the Red Sox than signing Bregman through his age-36 season on a five year deal. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that this Red Sox front office has not yet given out a contract longer than three years via free agency."
THIS front office. I feel stupid for running with that without looking more closely.

Jays signed a former 30 HR OF with a silver slugger to a minor league deal. Eloy Jimenez. He was on AAA last year, 112 OPS+ lifetime. Solid hitter who never stays healthy. Not a bad AAA guy to have around.

With the rumoured contract offer to Cody Bellinger, why doesn't NY just sign Tucker? What's stopping the Mets from signing him?

I think the only chance Toronto has to sign Tucker is if they go 10 years where the NY teams won't. We'd have two 10+ year players.

Jays Zips sneakpeak:

We'd have two 10+ year players.

I like the strategy of signing one 10 year player each offseason, and then we'd have one 10 year player come off of the books each off season. Starting now and then skipping a year to make up for Vlad's 13 year contact. I'm only half joking.

Didn't we already sign Eloy to a minor league deal? I just looked it up and it was on Sept 1, I guess it was a major league deal as insurance?

That's a nice looking ZiPS projection. That's a world series contender. Add Tucker or Bo and it's even better though!

09/01/25 Toronto Blue Jays signed free agent DH Eloy Jiménez to a minor league contract.

11/06/25 DH Eloy Jiménez elected free agency.

the Steamer projection is pretty similar.

I don't think there's much doubt that on paper we're probably AL favorites heading into the year.

But we'd only be slight favorites over a bunch of other very good teams, not clearcut favorites.

I think Cease and Bieber will be the top 2 starters on the team and between 3-4 WAR. I think the bullpen will be higher than 3.9 WAR. Kirk will not be a near 5 WAR player.

Just my guesses.

It's combined so Kirk can be a 3.8 WAR player and Heinemen 1.1 and that's 4.9. It will be interesting to see what the challenge system does to catcher WAR.

Do ZIPS and other projection systems take into account postseason stats from the year before? Relatedly, has anyone measured the impact of a player’s heavy postseason workload on his performance the following year? I’m wondering how someone like Gausman, Varland or Kirk might be impacted in 2026 by the significant number of innings/PAs they logged in the 2025 postseason.

not sure there's enough games there to really matter.

It was 18 playoffs games. Vladdy led with 89pa. Gaus led with 30.2ip. Varland had 16ip.

This year some players (especially the pitchers) will have added load from the world baseball classic in March. I think that would have as much or more impact than the playoffs.

Excellent point Michael. A shame BR and other sites don't have WBC stats. TheBaseballCube tells if a guy played in the WBC and for which team - link goes to Freddie Freeman's page where you can see he played for Canada in 2017 and 2023. BR responded to my request for the stats by saying they are working on it but have issues so far with getting it in there.

yeah i never understood why they wouldn't just fold the playoffs stats in with the regular season stats. the more data the better.

maybe some of the projections do now, i dunno.

Well except you shouldn't fold the post season stats with the regular season if you aren't adjusting for strength of opponents because your playoff opponents are significantly better than the average opponents in the regular season. So you'd expect a lower outcome in the postseason than in the regular season. So if your stat and projections are just on the line of the player (i.e., no adjusting for opponents) including the playoffs would drag down your normal playoff players on average.

honestly i think folding it in with no adjustments at all would still improve the projections.

But it's not like all regular season schedules are equal anyways, and i assume some of the projections try to already account for strength of schedule, even if it's just by using league-adjusted stats.

I'm sure it wouldn't be too complicated to make some kind of adjustment for playoffs competition anyways.

I like how BR has a playoff tab on the stats now, and adjust it to 162 game average even. Vlad's lifetime playoff stats are a 54 HR pace on a 337/439/653 line btw, even including his poor 2020-2023 stats (136/240/182 with 0 HR over 25 PA).

Now we need the career total listed below the regular season total and a summary of all combined. Pre-wild card it wouldn't make much difference (outside of Yankees) but now it would. 89 PA for Vlad this year with 8 HR. Another few playoffs and he could get over 20 HR which could be enough someday to push him over 500 or 600 lifetime (see Delgado & McGriff for why that matters). McGriff had 493 HR but also 10 playoff homers. If voters had paid attention to that he probably would've been in via writers instead of never getting to 40%. Delgado only had 4 in his one time in the playoffs (age 34 with the Mets, just 43 PA but a 1.199 OPS).

In truth, I'd love more stats - international play (Olympics, WBC, World Cups, etc.), spring training, you name it. Hockey-Reference has WHA, Junior B, OMJHL, World Juniors, Canada Cup, Olympics, etc. (checked Gretzky's page - 1 playoff season in the WHA and he had 10 goals in 13 games at age 18 - insane, still the NHL all-time leader in goals/assists for the playoffs, Ovechkin has 'just' 77 goals in the playoffs vs Gretzky's 122 plus WHA stats). It is funny how sports does separate playoffs from the regular season when it is so much more important.

Huh - blast from the past. Tyler Beede signs with the Cubs (minor league deal). Jays picked him in 2011 but he didn't sign which was lucky in the end, as the Jays got a compensation pick the next year and used it on Marcus Stroman. Beede has -1.2 bWAR lifetime (2019 the only year he wasn't a negative, 0.2 bWAR over 117 IP for SF). Stroman, of course, was a key part of the 15/16 teams and has 21.9 bWAR (12.5 as a Jay) lifetime. Those 15/16 teams are also Stroman's only playoff appearances btw (5 starts, 30 2/3 IP 4.40 ERA 1-1 record, team 3-2 in those games). In a round-about way Beede still has an influence on the Jays - he didn't sign so the Jays got Stroman who they traded for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, SWR was a key part of the deal to get Berrios who is still here today. Funny how a 2011 unsigned draft pick could still have influence on the 2026 roster (indirectly).

Here's a play for re-signing Bo if Tucker goes somewhere else:

Use opt-outs to increase the appeal. Structure a 10 year offer that's 32 per year for the first 5 (160) then 15 per for 3, then t10 per for the last two. Give him two opt outs, after 3 years and after 5. If he opts out after five which, if he's still an offensive force in his 30's he'd go back on the market going into his age 33 season trying to do better than 5/65 (13 per) which would be pretty easy to accomplish.

If he opts out after 3, then the Jays have paid him 96 and he's walking away from 7/129 (18.4 per) which would also be a smart play IF he's still as good in his age 30 season as he has been on the regular.

The benefit to the Jays is that the whole 10 years is 225 which gives them a 22.5 AAV. Worst case he's looking washed by 32 but they still only owe him 65 at most.

of course, you'd have to wait for him to NOT get the 300 million or whatever he'd like to get. So something like a week from reporting day or something

If he leaves after 3, Arjun is probably on the top step waiting, if after five they are backlogged with young IF options. I'd bet he opts out at 3

Now maybe the Dodgers do something stupid and offer him way more money which, oh well. But it seems like if he's not getting that, there would be a lot of appeal here on both sides.

It's interesting that the Bellinger negotiations are now playing out in public. Does this mean he is more or less likely to sign with the Yankees in the end? I'm not sure.

Based on the latest article in The Athletic, it sounds as if Bellinger is looking for a contract of 7 years (or close to that length) and maybe as much as $36-37m per year, while the Yankees' latest offer is for five years and between $31m and $32m per year (without deferrals).

Maybe they'll settle somewhere in between, or maybe he'll decide to sign somewhere else. It doesn't sound as though the Blue Jays are likely to swoop in and sign him, though.

Cody Bellinger wants more than $31 million per year? I mean, sure, want as much as you can.

Was there any time in that ALDS where any of us said "Uh oh, Cody Bellinger is up."?

I expect someone to panic shortly. Either Boston (realizing they've lost on Betts, Devers and Bregman), the NYY (realizing Bellinger is crazy) or Mets (realizing they've lost Alonso and need to replace the power)...one of these teams will switch focus to Tucker who clearly is waiting as long as he can. I wouldn't want to see him hitting in front of or behind Judge or Anthony with those short porches at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park.

Jays forced to resign Bo as their fallback option. Maybe hope they can make a trade of some sort like Barger, Tiedeman and Stanifer for Tatis Jr...

Jays are in a very good spot roster-wise.


Oh yeah don't forget about the Phillies...their GM is crazy and likely would convince ownership to spend 30 million in taxes on one player.

FanGraphs has their full Jays ZiPS article up. Interesting read. I always have the most fun looking at their comps for the assorted Jays. Vlad's #1 is Zeke Bonura - I was also 'who'? A guy who played mostly for the White Sox in the late 30's, but was done after 1940 at the age of 31. Of course my first thought is he went to war after that, but the US didn't enter until 1942. Very odd player - no minor league stats at all, extremely usual.

Should've also said who else was on Vlad's 3 comparisons - Puljos and Palmeiro. If he develops like either of them we'll be seeing a Jays cap in the HOF for him.

Bo's 3 are Martín Prado, Carney Lansford, Jose Vidro - Prado played to age 35, but for 28-35 he had 3 good years (4.5, two years in the 3's), 2 meh's (in the 1's), and 3 at the end that were wasted years (negative or 0.1 fWAR). Lansford also made it to 35 with his last 3 years being disasters (last one wasn't quite, at 1.9, but that seems high with negative defense and a 102 wRC+) ages 29-32 were all very good. Vidro only made it to 33, after 28 was not a good player (sub 1.5 WAR every year). Those 3 do not bode well for anyone giving Bo over 5 years - all 3 suggest paying for age 33 and beyond is a mistake.

Okamoto's 3 are Kyle Seager, Todd Zeile, Richie Hebner - all decent ML'ers. None added much value after age 33, much like Bo's crew.

What is interesting in looking at the comparisons is how often guys careers end in their early 30's. Even for guys who were all-stars in their 20's. Often those who hold on do so barely (sub 1 WAR, limited playing time). So these 10 year deals we've seen handed out lately could really come back and bite hard. I'm sure the Jays are being careful but in 5 or so years we might be cursing the choices the Jays made this past year. Of course, if they win a title who cares? Heck, after last years fun I'm OK for when another crash hits. I just hope it isn't like 94-14 where many years were dead from March 1st (spring training).

The only big contract with long term that was handed out was to Vlad and he was 27. Not that big a deal for your franchise player especially with the back end of it getting lowered in AAV.

Dylan Cease is a pitcher and doesn't fit the same decline category of Bo and Okamoto based on these projections. His comaprable players are Sutcliffe (5 good seasons out of 7 from age 30-37) and Bob Lemon (6 good seasons out of 7 from age 30-37). Of course those other pitchers were pitching 250 to 300+ IP but nobody's doing that in today's baseball, unfortunately...

On the Tucker front - Mets reported to offer 3 years $120 mil. Seems teams are not wanting to do the 10 year deal for him.

Checking FG - their top 3 for Tucker pre-2025 were Mookie Betts, Gary Sheffield, Carl Yastrzemski. Damn nice trio. Betts still active and solid through 32 despite moving to SS, Sheffield solid through 36, injured at 37, 3.0 WAR at 38, then net 0.1 for 2 years after that with lots of WOW years between 29 and 36 (2 of 6+ WAR). Yaz was 2+ WAR through age 39, then a useful backup for 40-43.

If Tucker ages at all like those 3 he might be a good deal at 11/$400 mil. Weird to say, but it might work well. I wasn't a fan of it at first, but as the winter drags on I'm liking it more and more.

Actually, the Mets’ offer is reported to be for three years and in the range of $120m to $140m.

Will Sammon of The Athletic also writes:

“Tucker’s preferences for contract length and dollars (both overall and in annual average value) are unknown.

“Multiple industry sources suggested that a decision from Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, could come as early as this week.”

If Mets are going 3/$130, Jays should go 5/$210 or something. Give him similar $ but for a couple more years. Would much rather give $40 for 5 years than $35 for 10 or something. Jays Zips projects and similar players are really fun to read through.

The Mets offer is smart because it’s essentially a sophisticated and lucrative pillow contract that (assuming there are opt-outs) would provide Tucker with a lot of money in 2026 and insurance against a down year.

If Tucker performs well in 2026, he would then be able to re-enter the FA market next offseason in a weak FA class.

Hopefully the Blue Jays can match or exceed their competitors’ short- and long-term offers. The Mets offer might be tempting for Tucker if financial constraints prevent the Blue Jays from offering a large AAV in 2026.

https://x.com/DSzymborski/status/2011133652906704936?s=20

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-zips-projections-toronto-blue-jays/

If the Mets offer is 3 years, and the Dodgers offer is around that ballpark as well, then the Jays have zero reason to push it to 9-10 years. They'd be bidding against themselves and adding more dead money for no reason. Give him between $35-40M a year over 6 or 7 years, maybe 8 max if it drops the AAV.

If the Jays offer, say, 10/$350m, then Tucker might take the Mets offer on the theory that he would make around $40-50m in 2026 and he could then seek around 10/$400m (or more) as a FA next off-season.

Toronto may not want to give Tucker $40m-$50m in 2026 with a 90% luxury tax payable on that amount.

apparently the jays would lose something like all of the 2/3/4/5 picks this next draft if they sign tucker.

annoying that we still won't get the zips wRC+ until they're all done and put into the fangraphs database, but for now i'll average projected Steamer wRC+ with projected Zips OPS+ as a proxy.

DH Springer 119
LF Lukes 106
1B Guerrero 148
C Kirk 116
RF Barger 108
3B Okamoto 114
CF Varsho 101
2B Clement 95
SS Gimenez 92

PH Santander 107
OF Straw 72
IF Schneider 106
C Heineman 80

PH Schreck 99
OF Loperfido 91
IF Jimenez 90
C Valenzuela 67

They lost picks 2 and 5 for Cease already, and would lose picks 3 and 6 for Tucker if they signed him, but they'd gain a pick after the 4th round for Bichette. They already lost $1M in international money for Cease, I don't think they lose any further by signing Tucker. So essentially it would be losing picks 2, 3, and 6 (the pick they'd gain after the 4th round for Bo negates losing their 5th pick) for Cease and Tucker. I believe the team's 1st round pick has already been pushed back 10 spots, so it's not going to be a great draft regardless, but losing 3 picks for two players who could realistically add close to a 9-10 WAR to the big league club in 2026 seems like a fair trade off.

So news now is Mets offered Tucker 50 million AAV with no report on the length of years.

thanks SK

Next year's draft will be weak regardless. That's OK when you're going for it. Jays have a lot of OF. Clase and Loperfido are obvious trade candidates. Santander would be great to trade but probably not possible or worth it. Lukes makes sense to trade if team signs Tucker or maybe even if they don't. If a cheap team like Cleveland will give you something, I'm more than fine with Schreck taking on 4th OF.

If Mets are really offering $50M, it might be hard to match. Feels like things will likely come to a head this week.

This is good for Toronto. If Tucker wants to start a family, play for a winner or get the total biggest payout with length then Toronto is probably the favourite.

ERA: Zips --- Steamer --- Average

Cease: 3.61 --- 3.61 --- 3.61
Bieber: 3.66 --- 3.87 --- 3.77
Yesavage: 3.88 --- 3.82 --- 3.85
Gausman: 3.77 --- 4.05 --- 3.91
Ponce: 4.00 --- 3.99 --- 4.00
Lauer: 4.25 --- 4.08 --- 4.17
Berrios: 4.51 --- 4.34 --- 4.43

Hoffman: 3.38 --- 3.47 --- 3.43
Varland: 3.64 --- 3.45 --- 3.55
Little: 3.75 --- 3.43 --- 3.59
Nance: 3.81 --- 3.83 --- 3.82
Garcia: 4.08 --- 3.63 --- 3.86
Fisher: 3.71 --- 4.06 --- 3.89
Rogers: 3.72 --- 4.06 --- 3.89
Lee: 3.88 --- 3.96 --- 3.92
Fluharty: 3.96 --- 3.97 --- 3.97
Rodriguez: 4.26 --- 3.98 --- 4.12

"5:15pm: The Jays have made Tucker a long-term offer, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN, though no details on that offer have been reported."

Time is CST. source found on www.mlbtraderumors.com

The question is multi-faceted. If you were Tucker with your first child on the way, where do you want to play? With a team known for being family friendly and close knit, or with the Mets who added a daycare and improved the family area this year. Both sound good - and from what I'm reading appear to be far ahead of the rest of MLB in this area. The border could be an issue as he is living in Florida (MAGA central). The Jays might need to add a year or two to get him.

In both cases he'd have 1 guy he'd know will be there for the whole contract - either Vlad here, or Soto in NY

Mets, lets say, are offering 3/$150 with annual opt-outs. Say the Jays offer him the 11/$400 he was wanting at the start. That is a spread of $350 mil in guaranteed money, but after 2026 he could go back on the market and would need 10/$350 to break even, but would also be upending his family for a third time (last year from Houston to Chicago, this year to NY, then to who knows after that). Might not be good for family reasons. Of course, there are 1001 things we don't know - does he have any family in NY or LA? Does he see staying stateside as important? Does he want his kid to potentially have dual citizenship (something that I'd think would be tempting just for the options it gives a rich kid going forward)? And so on.

Speculation is fun, but the variables are many that we cannot possibly know. What we do know is the Mets have made a killer offer and the Jays are trying to make one too (long term one). I'd be shocked if the Jays made a 3/$150 deal with opt outs just due to the loss of more draft picks for maybe 1 year of a guy - doesn't fit the Jays long term MO. I know with the labor contract uncertainty I'd not want to be a FA next winter if I was a ML player. Bird in the hand vs 2 in the bush theory applies here imo. Of course, if the Jays offer is 'just' 9/$350m or something like that vs a 3/$150 I could see him saying 'screw it, I'll risk it'.

Yankees get Ryan Weathers in a trade I really like for them. Four prospects but none fantastic. Don't get this trade for Marlins. Do you really want a bunch of 4th Ofers? Jays and Mets have confirmed offers to Tucker. Really hoping this is resolved very soon. It's getting annoying.

Weathers is potentially an average starter  but has never been healthy.
Lewis is viewed as a CF with solid defense and power. He's got ways to go though.
It's a bunch of guys who have done well in the minors despite not being drafted high.
Jones is the only 4th outfielder, the other 2 guys are corner infielders.

Interesting note in Bob Nightengale's latest piece in USA Today. In addition to mentioning the usual Tucker rumours, he says that the Blue Jays (along with Philadelphia, Boston, and LAD) "remain in the hunt" for Bichette.

I suspect with Bo the Jays are just holding tight unless they sign Tucker. One or the other is their goal and Bo is smart enough to know that, thus will wait out the Tucker thing unless someone hits his magic number ($300 mil) especially with Philly/Boston/LA all after him as well. The Mets IF seems full (Semien at 2B, Lindor at SS, Baty at 3B is a good young player - can't imagine they want to make him a backup). Mets are weak at LF/CF/1B (3 combined are projected sub 4 WAR) so maybe Bo could go to 1B or Baty could or one of them could go to LF or CF. Not ideal, but the Mets are in a desperation situation if they don't get Tucker - heck, if they do get him they might be desperate still as they'd still have 2 obvious holes.

I think the Jays and Mets read Tucker very differently if the reports are true. Jays think he wants long term stability right now, Mets think he wants maximum cash up front with a shot at more later. Guess we'll see soon, my bet is he is going over the offers with his family & agent tonight and tomorrow, then will decide probably by tomorrow night. Probably sleep on it a second night just to be certain. A very, very big decision for him.

I’ve said before I think the Jays view Clement as an everyday player so Okamoto may have signaled the end for Bo in Toronto, but will be interesting to see if the Jays go back to Bo in the event that Tucker signs elsewhere.

Jeff Passan is the only source I trust and he thinks Tucker will sign soon so hopefully we see a resolution to this shortly.

One of the many reasons the Mets are funny is that their FO immediately leaks details of contract offers to the press. I'll tip my cap to ours for its OPSEC; we have no idea how much it has offered Tucker or how many years.

If Tucker comes to Toronto and Bo goes to Philly, it'll be a good week even if it's bittersweet. If Tucker goes elsewhere and Bo ends up in Boston or New York, our A+ offseason gets knocked down a letter grade.

but they need to believe that all 3 of Clement Gimenez and Okamoto are quality fulltime starters, and hope for all of them to stay healthy.

this is what those 3 have done the last 2yrs:

Clement: 520pa/yr, 96wrc+, 3.3war/650
Gimenez: 501pa/yr, 78wrc+, 2.5war/650
Okamoto: ---

As iterated by many already...it would be pretty hilarious for this FO to achieve a full 180 only to lost one of their core pieces for nothing. Anything less than Bo or Tucker in the opening day line up has to be viewed as a failure and I think fairly.

Sorry everyone the typos on this site are unavoidable unless I re-read each post twice and then correct once or twice. The typos are not native...they are auto correct mistakes. It's been happening for about 3 years now on my Mac systems. If anyone knows how to de-activate this on this site I would be grateful. I have auto correct dis-activated already but for some reason the browser on this site auto-corrects.

To be clear, I understand this is a volunteer-run joint and I am not asking for any changes to the site only information if other users have experienced this and found a work around.

DE-ACTIVATED (overriding auto fake correct...)

Bichette is probably the fall back for Tucker going elsewhere.

If the Mets go $50x4, they probably get him. If they stick to $50x3, probably not... assuming the Jays go 8 years and at least in the range of $280-$300. (Without getting into referrals and opt outs).

If you take a short-term deal, you're betting that you can make up the difference in the 32-36 or 33-36 aged years... which Alonso and Schwarber set at $30-$31M per. Very risky if the Jays offer at least $320.

Apparently Jonathan Clase does have another option year left, it turns out.

Ugly that was clarified in the summer by a Beauxite already.

Sounds like the Tucker (and maybe Bo and Bellinger) dominoes are going to fall soon. Hopefully Tucker makes his decision this week and it’s a favourable one for the Blue Jays.

Boston has signed Ranger Suarez, 5/$130m.

The 2026 AL East competition just got a bit tougher.

Wonder if this means Boston expects Bo to sign elsewhere.

I like the Okamoto signing even more now. Weathers and Suarez added to division in last day. Crochet, Fried, Rodon already there. Just a lot of lefties.

Passan says a Tucker decision is expected within the next week.

Ranger Suarez 26 million/year average

Dylan Cease 30 million/year average

If Ranger's deal is without heavy deferrals then Cease's deal with Toronto looks better and better.

It almost feels like tucker's agent is actually using other teams as leverage to get more out of the jays for once, instead of the usual opposite.

true

We’ll see. I’ve said all offseason that Tucker is my first choice of position player FA addition. But we’ve been burned too often as Blue Jays fans to make any predictions with confidence.

We don’t know who is leaking these reports/rumours.

And the Dodgers are always a threat to steal the Blue Jays’ thunder (think Freeman, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Sasaki).

Question. What is the logic behind the Mets offering Tucker $50m per year for 3-4 years? Why wouldn’t they just offer something similar to what the Blue Jays are offering (longer-term contract at lower AAV), if that is what it will take to sign him? Why is (say) 4/$200m so much better for the Mets as a team and organization?

honestly smells like a smokescreen to me greenfrog.

Yeah same to me. I think the Mets got their OF last offseason in Soto. To pay Tucker a lot of money upfront would cost them more with the luxury tax penalty compared to spreading it out over many years.

I think Toronto needs to worry about the NYM on a long term deal. LAD have a strong team already (unlike the Mets) and their long term payroll looks atrocious.

"https://www.blogto.com/sports_play/2026/01/toronto-blue-jays-players-deleted-tucker-post-fans-freaking/"

So the Myles Straw trade wasn't for Sasaki budget it was to get Kyle Tucker's best friend to help Springer recruit.

Tucker doesn't make much sense for Mets to me because they have such a need for pitching so Valdez mbut if Steve Cohen is involved, all logic is out the window and they do need another bat.

Sounds like Tucker is nearing a decision. Latest rumours are that the Mets have gone to 4 years and Tucker is waiting for Jays to up their long term offer before accepting it.

Not quite to the Ohtani level, but lots of fun for mid-January.

Also saw something where Tucker said privately to someone who passed it along that he loves the idea of playing for a nation and not just a city. Might all be to make the Mets or Dodgers up their offer, but we'll see soon. My prediction was once he had all offers he'd take a night to discuss it with family, then with his agent the next day. I suspect right now he is talking with his first choice and giving them the opportunity to put finishing touches to get the deal over the finish line and we'll hear a result either Thursday or Friday unless talks break down with his #1 choice, then he rushes to #2 and gets the deal done quickly before things fall apart completely.

If signed, then trade time. Too many OF'ers, so either Santander goes (with the Jays eating a lot of money), or Barger. Plus Lukes/Schneider/Straw are 1 too many for the bench so one must go with Straw the safest due to contract and value as a backup for Varsho. Loperfido/Shreck/Clase and others in AAA are also on the block as add-ons to get a deal over the finish line (if needed).

If not signed then Plan B - Bo - is back in play at full speed. If neither signs then plan C happens (a trade of some kind most likely).

No matter what the next few weeks before spring training should be interesting - in a good way. This sure beats 1995-2012 when every winter was 'how are they going to dump salary and maybe become competitive again someday'. Up until part way into 1995 the Jays felt they could win (thus trading for Cone the 2nd time), 2012/13 offseason was the massive trades to try to become relevant again (didn't work until '15).

John, don't you think the Jays need more OF with Springer, Varsho and Straw all free agents at the end of the year? They will only have Santander and Tucker along with Barger and Loperfido. Not and over-abundance.

Dalimon5 - that is a 2026/27 winter problem, right now the issue is winning and maximizing roster use for 2026. IMO signing Tucker and keeping Barger would be ideal. Straw they can keep if they want (they have expensive options on him). I suspect they could sign Varsho long term, but it isn't a priority right now, I wouldn't be shocked if they work on a deal during spring training with him. Springer I could see them resigning next winter if Santander is dealt, but if Santander is still here then Springer has to be allowed to leave pretty much (having 2 guys whose best position is DH plus Vlad who ideally gets a day every week or two at DH around isn't ideal).

As I said though, those are problems for another day. Ideally they sign Tucker, then trade some excess (only 26 slots on the roster after all) to get an OF prospect who was in either AA or A+ last year, thus possibly ready for '27 or '28. It'll be interesting to see how things work out.

IMO, adding Tucker doesn't REQUIRE any trade at all - Lukes can be optioned so you don't have 14 guys you MUST carry for 13 jobs (Schnieder can too but his ability to play 2nd probably protects him some)

I'm sympathetic to the idea that you might trade Santander rather than have such a high-profile guy stuck on the bench and I dissent from the idea that you'd have to eat a massive share of his contract to do so (take the receiving team's share down to around 13-14 and you'll find interest) BUT I don't think they HAVE to.

If you're willing to put up with the awkwardness for a year, a lot of options open up next winter (lockout notwithstanding) and the year after because those FA classes are so weak. Indeed, while Lukes is what he is I'd be hesitant to trade any of the younger guys specifically because it might be wiser to assume there will be little desirable to sign outside of keeping your own players for a couple of years and so don't thin things out too much now.

But the idea is that if Santander rebuilds his value this year, teams who are looking to add a slugger next winter might have fewer alternatives. All this depends on whether you want to keep Springer after this contract runs out too because if that didn't happen for whatever reason then there's no more awkwardness re Santander.

Something else they have to be planning for - do that have any internal options - besides Straw and his limp bat - to play CF in '27 and beyond if Varsho signs elsewhere? I'd like for the answer to that to be Loperfido or even Clase but ... I wonder. Certainly the FA market has no answer to that.

Myles Straw needs Toronto to pick up a club option to stay on the team next year.

I get the feeling we'll find out today. Hope so. This is getting stretched out a ton. It's a nice day to be thinking about baseball while I shovel.

Jeff Passan says Jays can go 10 years against LAD and NYM's shorter deal. That means it will probably take 380 million or more to compete against the 200 million 4 year offers rumoured to be on the table.

Passan also thinks the Phillies are the favourites to land Bo.

From BA
Venezuelan catcher Juan Caricote ($1.95 million) has a good balance of skills in the batter’s box and behind the plate. He projects to stick at catcher, where he’s an advanced receiver comfortable handling high-end velocity. He’s athletic and agile, helping him block balls in the dirt. It’s not elite raw arm strength, but he projects to have at least an average arm once he’s physically mature. Caricote has a lean build for a catcher with a swing that’s loose, fluid and whippy from the left side and the strength projection to grow into a 15-plus home run hitter.

Michael Mesa, signing for $900,000, is a lefthanded outfielder from the Dominican Republic with a strong, physically mature build for his age at 6-foot-1, 190 pounds who stood out early in the scouting process for his offensive upside. It’s a sound, slight uppercut lefthanded stroke, and while he’s still learning to recognize breaking stuff, he has the strength behind that swing to drive the ball well to both gaps and over the fence to his pull side. Mesa likely settles into an outfield corner, but he has improved his speed over the past year to become an average runner, giving him a chance to move around all three outfield spots at the lower levels.

Dominican outfielder Aneudy Severino, signing for $700,000, is a talented player with an unconventional look. At 5-foot-9, he’s on the shorter side, but it’s a powerful build that’s extraordinarily strong for his age. His strength and bat speed allow him to drive the ball with high-end exit velocity from the right side of the plate, albeit with a flatter path for now that’s more conducive to loud line drives than loft. Severino is an above-average runner, though with a thicker body type that should get wider and could lead his speed to back up, there’s a good chance he gravitates to an outfield corner.

Shortstop Sebastian Casanova from Venezuela is an excellent athlete with premium speed. At 5-foot-10, 175 pounds, he’s a plus-plus runner with explosive lower-half athleticism to play all over the field. He has experience both in the infield and in center field and should play somewhere up the middle, whether it’s a shortstop, second base or in center. He’s a hard-nosed player with good all-around instincts, a line-drive approach and gap power with an all-fields approach from the right side of the plate.

Venezuelan shortstop Gabriel Porras is just 5-foot-7, 160 pounds, but he could end up a sneaky value signing. He has a relatively clean swing from both sides of the plate and good bat control to make contact at a high clip with gap power. It’s a good blend of game skills and athleticism with above-average speed and a middle infield profile, whether it ends up being at shortstop or second base.

BA Tracker
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-mlb-international-signings-tracker/

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Folks involved say a deal for No. 1 free agent Kyle Tucker could come as soon as today. Ex teammates guess he’d prefer Toronto over an even bigger market (and like spring near Tampa). Mets offered $50M-a-year deal. Dodgers are used to winning. Anyone else is a major upset.
7:29 AM · Jan 15, 2026

Guessing a Blue Jays offer in the range of 10/380 to 10/450 might be enough to land Tucker.

Unless he wants to continue to live in the States (as many players do).

If it takes 10 years to sign Tucker, then pivot to Bichette or to the trade market. You don't want to start operating like the Padres and offering long deals just to lower the CBT hit and be stuck with Xander Bogaerts for 11 years.

Fair point, but some long-term contracts are better than others. The Phillies gave Trea Turner an 11/$300m contract after his age-29 season with LA. He's been very good in the first few years of the contract. He has posted fWAR of 4.1, 3.9 and 6.7 in those seasons (6.7 fWAR came last year). That is the kind of production the Blue Jays could reasonably hope to receive from Tucker.

Turner is a SS and an elite athlete (so he might be able to move around defensively). A corner OF presents far less value on the defensive side and the next level down on the defensive spectrum is DH. I understand the logic of a 10 year deal, the Jays would want to lessen the luxury tax burden and not all players are in favor of deferring money, but I think double digit years is very risky especially if the player is already close to 30. If the Jays feel he will age well and still be productive for most of those years then maybe they bite the bullet. Usually free agency is “add one or two more years than anyone else is willing to offer”. Ten years might be six more years than the next realistic offer for Tucker (Mets/Dodgers) so it’s something they need to be very confident about.

I could see the Jays doing a 12/$400 so Tucker gets the magic number I suspect he wants ($400 mil) and the 12 is to spread it out more so the Jays get a lighter CBT hit. Odds are VERY low that Tucker will have any value at age 39/40. In all of MLB history only 10 players produced 10+ fWAR for ages 39+ with the most recent being Barry Bonds*, then Carlton Fisk (how a catcher lasted that long is beyond me). Only 22 have 5+ fWAR for ages 39+. Cut down to the expansion era (1961-now) and you are at 3 with 10+ (Bonds/Fisk/Mays), and 12 with 5+, 40 with 2+, 180 with 0 or positive fWAR, and 106 more negatives.

IE: It is rare for a guy to even be playing at age 39, even rarer to be a positive, and super-rare to be impactful (less than 1 per year since 1961 who reached 2 fWAR). For 5+ WAR seasons you get Bonds 2004 (11.9), then 3 guys in the 5's (Mays/Aaron/Fisk). So no matter how you cut it, ages 39/40 on any contract will be write offs with super-rare exceptions (4 in over 60 years out of 642 batter seasons).

Yeah, if they sign Tucker we can expect 2 dead slots in the lineup in a decade roughly between him and Vlad. But that is a nightmare for the 2036 Jays to deal with.

No issues from me for the Hays signing Tucker to 10 years. His numbers are better than Vlad's and he bats from the left side.

"Unless he wants to continue to live in the States (as many players do)." None of the players outside of Gausman who bought a house here live here. During the season they are traveling most of the time.

*Jays

The silly rumor season is really going now - just saw one on the Jays going for Skubal if they don't get Tucker. IE: trade a stack of players, then sign him for $300+ million long term. If you think signing an OF long term is risky, pitchers are doubly so. Some might remember Tim Lincecum - the Jays almost traded for him in the 2007-2008 offseason, just before he won 2 Cy's (for Alex Rios, but the Jays were hesitant and SF wanted more in the deal). At ages 24/25 he won back to back Cy's. Top 10 the next 2 years. Then it fell apart - ERA+ of 72 the rest of his career, done at 32. From age 28 to the end he only led the league in losses, starts, wild pitches, and earned runs allowed. He tried a comeback at 34 but it flopped (12 2/3 IP in AAA 9 BB 10 SO 12 R 8 ER).

If you want to talk yourself into it, Tucker's no. 1 comp hitter through age 28 was... Larry Walker, who continued raking all the way through to retirement at the end of his age 38 season.

FYI: the box saw nearly 30% say no to Rios for Lincecum. It was a big thing that winter. We were desperate - it had been well over a decade without even sniffing the playoffs and JPR's time was running short. A follow-up much later can be seen here. Lots more from that time frame, but hopefully if the Jays do make a 'holy cow' trade for Skubal it works out better than Lincecum would've on a 10 year deal (2 Cy's, 2 more solid years, then nada).

Tucker is the safest bet in my opinion. He's athletic, a 5 tool player and fits the line up perfectly from a line up stand point.

The Blue Jays are at or near the peak of the win curve. May as well go all in now by adding a 4-5 win player who will increase the chances of winning in 2026 and beyond.

Plus, as others have mentioned, the top 7 prospects in the system are pretty good. May as well augment the team via free agency and hold on to those prospects.

It seems better to go further in one direction and swing back next year than try to balance things every year.
The extra draft picks they lose now are worth less than the ones they already lost.
Varsho can get a QO next year, if that's still a thing.
There might not be that many holes to plug next year.

The Orioles looks done.
Boston is probably out on Bichette at this point and will probably get a 3B by trading some pitching prospects.
If the Jays overpay for Tucker, the Yankees and the Mets will probably fight over Bellinger.

The Jays deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to free agency. Just this past season they had fantastic performance from Springer in year 5 of 6, Gausman in year 4 of 5, and very solid work from Bassitt in year 3 of 3. Things didn't go so well for Santander and Hoffman, but both could easily bounce back. So if the Jays feel Tucker is worth a ten year investment, then I'll trust their judgement on that. Obviously I hope they can work out something with fewer years. Any player signed through age 38 is going to involve (a lot of?) dead money towards the end.

Eugenio Suarez to BOS is almost too obvious not to happen--he's nearly a 1.300 OPS hitter in Fenway and no one else seems particularly interested in his services.

i wouldn't even blame them so much for Hoffman/Santander - the team was in a very bad position, none of the top free agents had any interested in joining the mess, and they were desperate to add something on the market and had money to spare. Those were imo obvious desperation moves at the time, but not even terrible gambles at the time, and hardly anchors now.

this time they've targeted the guys at the top of the market they like best, and yeah they deserve the benefit of doubt for sure there. This year's moves are much more in the Gausman/Springer vein.

I've said my piece on Bo vs Tucker, but of course i'll be ecstatic if we land Tucker, the top free agent on the market. And i have no issue with any of the numbers i've heard (10yrs, $400m, whatever).

I think Santander and Hoffman will both be good signings by end of their terms. If I ran this team and got Tucker I'd turn around and ship Varsho, Lauer and Berrios out (along with prospects) and then re-sign Bo.

Might as well keep the elite defensive CF with power and trade for Skubal while you're at it.

Hoffman is OK - bWAR has him at 0.5 for last year, May and August killed his stats for the year, but in Sept/Oct he had a 532 OPS against, 488 in the playoffs. Yeah, that bloody HR in the 9th of game 7 will always hurt, but he kept it tied so the Jays had more chances to win. We'll see what comes in 2026/27 for him. Santander was cheaper than I expected him to be - under $15 mil per year for CBT purposes which puts him 8th on the payroll list, 9th if they sign Tucker or Bichette. Even if the Jays need to eat a lot of it to clear him out, or just put him on the bench, it isn't a killer.

Last winter the OF looked bleak with Varsho the only solid one. Springer was coming off a horrid year (97 OPS+), Barger & Loperfido both looked like flops (70 + 65 OPS+), Lukes was good (130 OPS+) but no one trusted that to continue (he was 29 then, prime time for a career year and just 91 PA). Remember how excited we all were about Roden coming up? Clase did well in a brief call up too - both had a 63 OPS+ this year with Roden being traded away. Yeah, it made a LOT of sense to get Santander then. Now, not so much.

Who knows what we'll be talking about next January. Excitement over another deep playoff run? Lets hope. Frustration over Gausman-Bieber-Varsho in free agency with no idea what the Jays are doing? Probably.

Lets hope the Jays sign a few good kids today and in coming days from the IFA class plus Tucker. Hey, it is just Rogers money. It'd be fun if they traded some guys to get more IFA cash too.

I doubt Skubal will be dealt now. At the summer trade deadline, maybe.

Hoffman was not a desperation move. Jays needed a closer and Hoffman was great previous year. Santander sure felt like they just needed to sign someone.

Once again numbers only show the performance on the field in a vacuum and does not account for any other effects on performance. If you remove Bo from the line up all year would it impact Vlad's numbers? Hoffman was overworked and overused in my estimation and there was a clear advantage to not overusing him when it came to his velocity and performance.

With Garcia, Rogers and and better overall bullpen (never mind rotation upgrades) I expect Hoffman to put up a stronger year in 2026.

i mean signing a 32yr old injury risk Hoffman who had never been a closer before for multi years to fill the closer hole, only after the team he wanted to sign with reneged on their deal, seems a bit desperate to me.

but like i said, not a terrible deal or anything.

Yeah I think that's an unfounded POV, Ugly. Hoffman doesn't have any more injuries than the average pitcher and if you're basing the "injury-risk" assessment on the Braves and Orioles backing out of the deal then it's based on speculation not on any actual injuries he's occurred. How do you know they weren't looking at him as a starter and backed out based on expectations to pitch a starter's workload? Definitely not a desperation move. Here's the free agent recap for relief pitchers last year:

Tanner Scott 72,000,000 4 years
Clay Holmes 38,000,000 3 years (used as a starter)
Jeff Hoffman 32,000,000 3 years
Carlos Estevez 22,000,000 2 years
Blake Treinen 22,000,000 2 years
AJ Minter 22,000,000 2 years
Nick Martinez 21,050,000 1 year
David Robertson 15,942,000 1 year
Yimi Garcia 15,000,000 2 years

So the Blue Jays signed the two relief pitchers with the lowest AAV from the group above, where do you see a desperation move and who the heck would have saved games if not for these two???

Hoffman had the 5th highest WAR and 4th best FIP in MLB for RP's in 2023-24. I wouldn't consider him a desperation signing. Santander might be closer to being categorized as that type of signing given that it went against how the FO usually evaluates players (valuing defense and contact rates).

I mean it's all semantics. They gave bigger money and term to Hoffman than the two teams that he was about to sign with that nixed those deals due to medicals.

call it what you will.

Early guesses on the Skubal contract next year?

400,000,000/8 years MAX. Dude will be to old for more and he would need to have another ridiculous year in 2026 for that to happen.

I think Henderson and Soto in 2028 could set new records if they both take step forwards. Soto is still only 27.

Tough one on Skubal - he will be entering his age 30 season, will have a fair number of innings on his arm. I'd guess $30-$40 mil for ages 31-33, 34-36 $20 mil, 37 and beyond just write offs. So for a 5 year: 3 x $40 + 2 x $20 = $160 lets say, 6+ years: $40 x 3 + $20 x 3 = $180. Maybe add $10 per year past the first 6. So $200 mil for 8 years. However, given the way these things go and the limited number of free agents he will want $300 over 10 I suspect which would be a mistake for anyone to do. 1961 to now there are 33 pitchers who had 10+ fWAR from age 37 to the end, led by Randy Johnson's 43.4, and Nolan Ryan's 42.7 (two big time freaks of nature), then Phil Niekro and his knuckleball at 39.2. Amazingly 10 guys had 20+ fWAR from age 37 to the end. 60 had 5+ fWAR from 37 to the end.

Lets cut that down to ages 39+ like I did for hitters - now 15 have 10+, and 5 with 20+ with Nolan Ryan the only 30+ guy (he was a major outlier) the other 20's are Niekro-Clemens-Johnson-Perry (2 cheaters, a knuckleball, and Randy Johnson), 5+ is down to 29. FYI: Scherzer is at 1.0 for that age range. Verlander 12.3.

My point of all of this is that Skubal could be a solid starter into his 40's, but it is very unlikely. It happens, but it is rare. Teams that put value on age 37+ for pitchers or hitters are taking a big risk. Best to write those years off when planning out the budget for a guy. If you feel Skubal is worth $50 mil for 31-33 and $30 mil for the next 3 then you get $150+$90 = $240 so a $250 mil deal might make sense but is pushing it and lands under the 'hope he does OK age 37 and beyond' category. Someone will do that risk, but I'd rather the Jays didn't. There were 205 seasons for pitchers worth 2+ WAR at age 37 and beyond since 1961 (out of 1134 pitcher seasons for those ages) - would you want to put your job on the line hoping Skubal has 2 or 3 of those? Especially given many were during the PED era of the 90's/early 00's, and many before that were using greenies/uppers/Amphetamines to be able to make it through games (now banned).

For the past 21 years (2005-2025) just 66 pitcher seasons of 2+ fWAR have happened for ages 37+ with 2 cracking 6 (Clemens '05 and Verlander '22) and 4 more in the 5's (3 by John Smoltz, 1 by Mussina). The 21 years before that (1984-2004) saw 86 2+ fWAR seasons, with 8 cracking 6 WAR (led by Randy Johnson's 10.4 in '01, top 3 are all Johnson), another 5 were in the 5's. That was with fewer teams mostly (just 26 in '84-'93 for example) and with 2 seasons shorted by a strike. I suspect the list will continue to shrink as more pitchers are cutting innings down thus harder to get WAR, plus are throwing harder thus higher odds of blowing out their arm (in theory - has anyone seen a study on this as Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, and Roger Clemens* all seem to contradict that old theory).

But again, that is more a debate for next winter, unless the Jays do the improbable and trade for Skubal.

BREAKING: Tucker reconsidering Toronto contract due to snow accumulation levels.

Heyman making some of the same points/predictions in an MLB Network interview, saying he thinks Tucker will make his decision today or tomorrow. Could be LAD, Mets or Blue Jays.

https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/2011928380095213960

https://x.com/stevenacohen2/status/2011950786289287430?s=48&t=oW1ymb7VdaFCcZlLKN7cmQ

Does Tucker have a plane? #planewatch

Interesting how Heyman thinks Toronto is not intense. Might be right in some respects - Jay fans tend to be less negative than fans elsewhere. They can get bad on a guy but normally only after they choose to leave, not while here with rare exceptions.

Love that he says friends of Tucker are thinking Toronto is where he is going. Perfect world Jays sign Tucker, Bo goes to Philly, and Bellinger goes to the NL somewhere. Nightmare is Tucker and Bo and Bellinger all sign in the AL East but not here, and Valdez too (Baltimore could add any 2 and be under the luxury tax still).

Braves were offering 45-48M/5.
Orioles, 40M/3.
Jays, 33M/3.

Jays took a risk on the medical at a rebate.

I think Cohen meant to text that to his GM.

Mariners love them some former Blue Jay pitching prospect cast-offs.

Dodgers.... Just absurd.

Dodgers lol

sure hope they didn't burn the Bo bridge

F'n Dodgers

There’s going to be a booing record when they come back on April 6…

Get Bo signed ASAFP.

Good for the Dodgers, bad for baseball.

MLB has become so class-stratified.

The Blue Jays are now one of the elite high-spending teams. Good for us. The second tier. The Dodgers are way up on a higher plateau. It’s not just super-elite spending. It’s super-elite everything.

The low-spending teams are way, way below. They effectively have no chance against the behemoths.

I Am seeing 4/$240 with opt out. Insane. Dodgers wanting that lockout I guess.

4/$240m contract. $60m per year on average and a chance for multiple WS championships. You have to admire LA’s boldness.

How does a lock out help the Dodgers.

not annoyed at the dodgers at all tbh.

there's always a big dog payroll team.

can never be surprised when you don't land the top guy.

which is why you should treasure the homegrown guys and give them the love.

Every year I say I’m going to stop falling for this BS that we’re competitive on the top free agent, that’s he’s not just leveraging us for a preposterous deal somewhere else. Every year I do it anyway. Next year I’ll be wiser!

Wow. Not surprised at all that the Dodgers got him (had that suspicion for a while) but that’s a massive number. There has to be a mountain of deferrals.

Do the Jays and Bo reunite now? As mentioned after Okamoto it does seem like Bo makes the most sense from a roster standpoint but that’s only if they accept Clement as a utility IF. I’ll have to see it to believe it.

Ah well, fare thee well.

So what's the latest on Bo?


to be crystal clear, that's a WILD overpay and I feel no disappointment at all that the Jays didn't try to beat it. Even if money means nothing to the Dodgers, I just wouldn't want to do that.

No surprise (as I'm repeating myself) put me in the camp that always saw Ernie as best deployed in utility. There's very much a spot here for Bo IMO (albeit I assume there will, as usual (including with Vlad) be some years at the end that will feel like a burden.

Not Ross' problem.

Not mad at Dodgers but this is bad for baseball. Sure, most teams should be spending more money but you also shouldn't have one team lapping all other teams in spending.

$30mm deferred, so that's 210 present-day value and 52.5 AAV.

Still a wild overpay, even if this is hiding some signing bonuses and buyouts on the options and whatnot.

MLBTR relays a report of a different calculation.

"Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports that the deal will have a $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes after accounting for the deferrals. That’ll give him the record for the largest annual salary by net present value in history."

I don't get it but I make no pretense of understanding how these convoluted calculations work.