Another incredibly high-stakes game. If the Blue Jays win, they’ll have a chokehold on the series with a day off and then Bieber and a rested bullpen pitching Tuesday at 8pm in New York.

But the game could go either way. The Yankees and Fried are favoured to win, but I think Yesavage and the Blue Jays will pull off an upset.

Top of the first: pure awesomeness.

The splitty be splitty-ing!

Let's not jinx it, but Yesavage is completely dominating through 2.

ERNIE

Ernie fucking Clement!!!

Yesavage reminds me of Henke...over the top splitter, willing to keep bouncing it, etc. Henke was taller, I was only a kid watching him, maybe it's just me. I haven't heard that comp yet.

Clement!

Ernie legitimately had a “how the heck did I hit that out???” expression there.

Man, if that flyball went out, there are going to be a few more today.

Postseason WPA is worth way more than regular season WPA!

Fried has been very hittable so far so hope Jays keep going. Pedal to the metal.

Not going far out on a limb to guess that's the best first 3 postseason innings for a starter in club history.

Still don't get why Davis doesn't play every day.

I haven't been able to post much lately but wanted to say I'm excited to get to watch some playoff baseball, especially after the negativity in recent years. Let's go Jays!

Pitch count still very low for Fred. Keep him in there, Jays are having no trouble hitting him.

Fried is rattled.

Their ace.

Are they gonna chase him in the 3rd????

Absolutely excellent baserunning by the Jays so far. Taking the extra bases that are right there (Grisham and Judge do not seem to be charging anything hit their way). I’d be worried they’re not exactly making Fried work, except they’re all over anything he puts in the zone so….

All The Athletic writers who picked the Yankees to win the series (all of their baseball writers save one) are nonplussed. The Blue Jays are outscoring New York 15-1 so far.

It sure is, greenfrog!

Important inning here for the kid. Don’t let the Yankees back into it.

2 writers picked Toronto: Mitch Bannon and Melissa Lockard.

Yesavage is pitching all right

Good lord, all hail our new king! 10K through 4 !!%?!

Not only can the best hitting team in baseball not get hits --they actually cannot even foul pitches off. They're swatting and only hitting air. Wow!

Thanks for the correction, James.

Yesavage looks fantastic. Like, Halladay-level greatness.

Halladay ++ Halladay allowed hits now and again.

Looks like Fried is fried.

Na na na na na!

Wow!!!

hey hey hey, goodbye!

Guerrero Jr seems to be making up for those previous postseason struggles… about as fast as can be possibly done…

How long do you leave Yesavage in?

Does completely humiliating the Yankees ever get old or tiresome?

The answer is, obviously, of course not.

I knew when I saw Clement, IKF, Gimenez and Straw in the lineup that we'd put up 11 runs by the 4th!

Cycle watch is on for Varsho!

If they change the Judge error to change Varsho from 2b to 3b.

But yeah, hitting and pitching both dominating for the Jays.

Does Yesavage go deep with the no hitter and the moderate high pitch count, or do they pull him even with the no hitter to save him for later games?

I take Yesavage out after 5 probably unless he gets through it very quickly in that case 6.

$500m, baby.

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1974948703208440290?s=19

Big picture is important. Yesavage isn't going to go 4 more innings so a no hit bid is out of the question. I love the idea of having him available later in the series if it comes down to it.

Has to be feeling good for the front office, which was roundly mocked throughout the off-season and never more so than when they traded for Straw.

UO, it was so beautiful. If Vladdy has fixed his swing path, watch out world.

#SpringerofGeorge

We focused on how the pre-ALDS rest days might help Bo feel better. It sounds as if those rest days also really helped Vladdy and maybe some other Blue Jays players as well.

Expand Trey!!

I like taking him out to get an ovation.

15 year contract for Yesavage seems reasonable?

Yes, and also protecting his arm for upcoming postseason outings. Yep, I used the plural of “outing.”

I actually think Trey is the right size and doesn't need to expand at all.

Talkin’ Baseball

@TalkinBaseball_
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. so far this postseason:

6 for 7, 2 HR (1 Grand Slam), 6 RBI, 2.464 OPS

Surprisingly big K right there. Phew.

Varsho > Grisham

It's a good thing Fried doesn't get rattled or this game could have gotten very ugly.

Yeah, we were right to call out the mlb article trying to claim the Yankees had the advantage at cf in this matchup. In theory and in practice.

Lol katie

Let’s hope Bieber is feeling it in game 3 and the Blue Jays slam the door on the Yankees in this series.

Is nance the last guy who didn't go yesterday too?

This is now the yanks highest scoring game of the playoffs.

Is nance the last guy who didn't go yesterday too?

Neither Fluharty nor Rodriguez have pitched yet in the series.

What an absolutely horrible bullpen performance. Pathetic.

Maybe they shouldn't have pulled the kid.

Yeah, maybe 6 or 6.1 instead of 5.1 might have been the call.

All 4 relievers so far have managed to get one out each.

Trying to galaxy-brain the rotation too far in advance rarely works out.. Really need some innings from Bieber on Tuesday.

Nance made a good pitch to Judge. Jammed him. The other pitches were bad. Thankfully Straw was able to run down Bellinger’s tailing liner to left.

This is still a big lead. Blue Jays 99.6% chance of winning, per ESPN.

Here's hoping we can add a few more runs before Schneider brings in Hoffman to "make it closer".

It was right move to take out Yesavage. You need to hang expect your bullpen to be able to get through a few innings without giving up double digit runs. Bruhl, Lauer, and Nance combined for 7 runs in one inning.

Now 99.9% chance of winning the game.

Man warren really saved their pen.

Bellinger moving with somewhat of a limp because of his heel injury. That could come back to bite the Yankees at some point if he’s unable to run down a ball in the outfield or take/steal the extra base in an important situation.

Apparently, Toronto's 23 runs are the most for any team through their first two playoff games in playoff history.

Well, we were warned we were about to watch a vaunted offence.

Hopefully we seal this and coach finally learns the "don't pull a dominant pitcher unless you have to" lesson that he shouldve learned after the berrios incident.

A little annoying that they're going to come out of these two games with a bullpen im better shape than ours.

Oh well. Details.

Feeling good about the first post in this thread.

Worst case scenario they're back home for Game 5

2 games up on Marc's yankees and it feels so good.

Omigod Hazel is sideline reporter of the decade. Thoae crying clips already legendary.

Finish them on Tuesday!

I probably would have let Yesavage either finish the inning or give up a hit at least but regardless, pulling him was the right move. They have been careful with his innings to get him to this point, wasting effort with a 12 run lead would have been not ideal.Lauer, Bruihl, and Nance just needed to be better. But with the off day no harm done.

I had no issues pulling Yesavage there. The Jays may need him for a Game 5 scenario piggybacking with Gausman and it was a blow out. Unfortunately the Jays pen was atrocious, but still the right call.

That Vlad grand slam will be replayed a lot, and justifiably so. Unbelievable moment.

Yankees manage to swing the momentum back into their favor heading to the Bronx. :)

Great games by Vladdy, Varsho and Yesavage.

So, should we accept the US as the 11th province?

Nah, we’re good as is.

Vladdy went 3/5 with a HR, 2 R, and 4 RBI and had the third best game for the Jays. Teams up 2-0 in best of 3 have won 80/90 times so its good but hardly over.

what's more important - homers or strikeouts?


Jays 8hr 7k
Yanks 1hr 21k


how about both.

Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson
·
39m
Trey Yesavage:

“I was sitting in there thinking about the comment I made the other day, that I’m built for this. I thought… I’d better back this up.” #BlueJays

On top of everything else, Yesavage seems like a genuinely good guy. A quiet leader.

https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1974982056754155858

Record vs Playoffs Teams

PHI: 51gms, 31-20 .608
MIL: 62gms, 36-26 .581
TOR: 66gms, 38-28 .576
LAD: 56gms, 32-24 .571
CIN: 65gms, 33-32 .508
CHC: 63gms, 31-32 .492
BOS: 62gms, 30-32 .484
SEA: 51gms, 24-27 .471
NYY: 62gms, 28-34 .452
DET: 56gms, 25-31 .446
SDP: 58gms, 23-35 .397
CLE: 58gms, 23-35 .397

Fried looked completely shell shocked.

The Jays let every reliever get their playoffs debut even if it didn't go very well. Not sure that helps the Yankees much in game 3, but that not a great sign for game 4, if we get there.

Can someone explain how the pitch simulation/live tracking works for opposing teams and Jays pitchers? They mentioned on the broadcast that the NYY didn't get Yesavage's simulated pitches to work with because they haven't faced him yet in their home stadium. I figured that once a pitcher pitches in the Show one time then tracking becomes available for their pitches and hitters around the league can practice against their pitches/paths etc.

I'm wondering if each new team he faces will be listless because they can't "see," or practice against his pitchers until actually facing him. Wondering what a Yesavage vs Ohtani at bat might look like...

Rodriguez didn’t make his playoffs debut yet. Kinda weird.

I have seen reports that there is a Traject (sp?) system that simulates pitchers. But it doesn't travel so the Yankees could not use it in Toronto.

Thing it i don't know how any system could replicate that splitter and release point.

Also this was an extremely badass moment: https://x.com/TrueRGM/status/1975018105765257672

I'm wondering if the Yankees would have made a point of doing some Trajekt practice on Friday with Yesavage's delivery, before their trip to T.O., if they had known Yesavage was starting Game 2.

But the Jays delayed announcing their Game 2 starter, letting everyone think that obviously you weren't going to tell pitchers like Bieber, Scherzer and Bassitt that some kid was rated ahead of them.

In Boone's Q&A after Game 2 he indicated that more preparation wouldn't have helped because the kid made good pitches
(with obvious spite, trying to spoil our fun story of the Jays' subterfuge).

From the Gimenez single in game 1 that put the Jays ahead 3-1 to Springer's HR that put the Jays up 12-0 in game 2, Jays outscored the Yankees 20-0.

Per Sarah Langs, Jays are the 1st team ever to score 20 consecutive runs within a series in postseason history.

Some WPAs from yesterday:
Varsho .156Clement .143Guerrero .108
Bellinger -.039
Yesavage .176Fried -.292

WOW. I was confident the Jays could win this series but I really didn't expect it to be lopsided. The contrast of Yesavage mowing down the Yankees while Fried looked like a scrub was incredible.

The bullpen moves seemed sensible to me. With the Bye and the off days there should be no rest problems this series, and it's good that they got a bunch of postseason debuts out of the way in low-leverage. 

The one small concern is Lauer - I hope they have a good clear plan for how he's going to be used, and that the hard contact off him in this game doesn't mean anything going forward. If there is a game 4 I expect a bullpen game featuring quite a bit of Lauer.

Following last year, I was convinced that Earnie could replace Chapman at third defensively with only a small drop in offense.

Also, Clement can be moved around the infield and the batting order as needed while Chapman was granted third and a high spot in the batting order.

Clement 4.3 bWAR this year, Chapman 4 1

I was there. It was amazing.

To me, this is even better than July. The Yankees aren’t gifting the Jays runs, the Jays are just taking them!

Yankees Media clearly trying to accuse the jays of cheating without actually saying it. "Jays hit different at home for some reason!!!"


dorks.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-_2ypdE_xY&t=9s

Well, the Blue Jays’ biggest offensive outburst of the season was on the road (in Colorado).

I guess because the Yankees were so heavily into relaying signs about what pitch Scherzer was going to throw in his recent start against them, they assume Toronto is doing something like this too. Classic projection and sore loser mentality.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6692913/2025/10/06/aaron-judge-yankees-window-alds/

Rosenthal:

"Think about it: Judge might win his third MVP award in four years, but Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. arguably has produced more electrifying postseason moments in two days – a first-inning homer in Game 1, a grand slam in Game 2 – than Judge has in his entire career."

Woah, haven't we accused other teams,(not named the 2017 Astros) of cheating on multiple occasions?

I believe the medical term for this is the "butthurt reflex"

Post-garbage can scandal, weren’t the Yankees (and maybe another team or two) investigated by the MLB Commissioner about possible cheating via electronic communications?

yankees are dirty cheaters tho.

Didn’t Judge get special baseballs to hit during his home run record chase?

the yankees had already been investigated and were, in fact, the reason that the mlb issued its memo/directives in 2017 against electronic sign stealing.

mlb verbally warned teams in spring/start of season and then the red sox got busted with the apple watches in season so that's when the policy was codified.

the butthurt is because the astros, iirc, kept banging cans after that in the playoffs.

the yankees were probably investigated again, but the stuff we know of is from them doing this in 2015/2016 when they did not yet have the express written prohibition of MLB

It feels good today! The air does feel fresher up here to. The only thing as enjoyable is Ottavino's break down of Yesavage's start. Awesome. Now you have Bieber who I feel confident has been pitching at 85%-90% effort so far this year. I expect to see an increase in velocity, maybe 1 or 2 clicks and a 6-8IP QS.

I've read cheating posts here the past few years - long after 2017. I guess it's so common place it doesn't even stick in peoples memories.

Rosenthal

I suppose he was working for the US national broadcast, but it was still strange to watch the SN feed and the Jays dugout shots that kept catching Ken hanging out alone & ignored against the back wall in his suit. In the dugout itself, not the camera well that one is used to seeing Hazel crouching down in.

Here is the Ottavino breakdown dalimon mentioned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3cOcy-xcUwc

I like the David Ortiz assessment. Jesus. Cancun.

For Trajekt I checked their site seems their machine is damn similar to one I saw at a batting cage in the early 90's - a video of a pitcher with the ball releasing when the pitcher is supposed to be releasing it. I suspect this one can duplicate more types of pitches though and throw them more accurately than that toy one did (I found it cute to watch, but hard to use as it didn't always match up arm action to ball coming out).

i'd love to see the machine that can imitate his splitter.

Paraphrase of one observer's comment on Yesavage's splitter, " With his arm angle, it looks like the ball is coming down from the CN Tower."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/video/caleb-joseph-tests-out-blue-jays-trajekt-hitting-lab/

The broadcast did a segment back in July with Caleb Joseph testing out the Jays' Trajekt machine.

Like John Northey said, it fundamentally looks like the video batting cage machines of old.

The biggest modern differences seems to be that the machine can adjust the ejection chute to exactly match each pitcher's release point (one can see it adjusting to imitate Kevin Gausman in the Caleb segment).

The new Trajekt technology can also apparently exactly imitate the shape of each pitcher's offerings by imputing the Statcast data.

DH Springer 10pa, 207wrc+ --- CF Grisham 9pa, 6wrc+
LF Lukes 6pa, 130wrc+ ------- RF Judge 9pa, 290wrc+
1B Guerrero 10pa, 409wrc+ -- LF Bellinger 9pa, 95wrc+
CF Varsho 9pa, 605wrc+ ----- DH Stanton 9pa, 49wrc+
C Kirk 9pa, 265wrc+ --------- 1B Rice 9pa, 10wrc+
3B Clement 8pa, 213wrc+ ---- 2B Chisholm 8pa, -38wrc+
SS Gimenez 8pa, 145wrc+ ---- SS Volpe 8pa, -7wrc+
2B Falefa 5pa, -100wrc+ ----- 3B McMahon 7pa, 59wrc+
RF Straw 5pa, 102wrc+ ------- C Wells 5pa, 7wrc+

UT Schneider 4pa, 156wrc+ --- UT Goldschmidt 2pa, 190wrc+
OF Santander 3pa, 88wrc+ --- OF Dominguez 0pa
IF Barger 4pa, 37wrc+ -------- IF Caballero 1pa, 383wrc+
C Heineman 0pa, --wrc+ ----- C Escarra 0pa
XX Nobody 0pa --wrc+ -------- IF Rosario 0pa



RH Gausman 5.2ip, 1.59era, 3.14fip, 4.77xfip ----- LH Fried 3.0ip, 21.00era, 8.80fip, 6.01xfip
RH Bieber 0.0ip, -.--era, -.--fip, -.--xfip ----------- LH Rodon 0.0ip, -.--era, -.--fip, -.--xfip
RH Yesavage 5.1ip, 0.00era, -0.43fip, 0.44xfip ----- RH Schlittler 0.0ip, -.--era, -.--fip, -.--xfip
LH Lauer 0.1ip, 81.00era, -2.86fip, -2.86xfip ------ RH Gil 2.2ip, 6.75era, 11.39fip, 5.11xfip


RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 0.00era, 4.14fip, 7.22xfip ----- RH Bednar 0.0ip, ---era, ---fip ---xfip
RH Varland 1.2ip, 0.00era, 1.94fip, 1.94xfip ------ RH Doval 2.0ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 4.68xfip
RH Dominguez 1.2ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 3.14xfip --- RH Cruz 0.2ip, 13.50era, 7.64fip, 9.95xfip
LH Little 1.0ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 6.22xfip --------- LH Hill 1.1ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 5.45xfip
RH Fisher 0.1ip, 0.00era, -2.86fip, -2.86xfip ------ RH Williams 0.0ip, ---era, ---fip, ---xfip
LH Fluharty 0.1ip, 0.00era, 3.14fip, 3.14xfip ------ RH Weaver 0.1ip, 81.00era, 12.14fip, 16.76xfip
RH Rodriguez 0.0ip, -.--era, -.--fip, -.--xfip --------- RH Warren 4.2ip, 11.57era, 13.21fip, 6.03xfip
RH Nance 0.1ip, 54.00era, 3.14fip, 17.01xfip ----- RH Blackburn 1.1ip, 27.00era, 12.89fip, 4.29xfip
LH Bruihl 0.1ip, 54.00era, 42.14fip, 12.39xfip ----- Nobody -----------------------------------------

stuff on Dominguez tipping pitches here:

https://x.com/ArdenZwelling/status/1975265215987306863

Good to catch it now, when it wasn't a factor in games 1 and 2. Need to mix it up for game 3 and beyond.

Trey Yesavage's game was mighty impressive, especially those floating splitters up in the zone and frozen rope fastballs at the knees. I haven't seen Judge strikeout on a pitch up in the zone like that that wasn't over 100 mph before which makes me think Trey's FB looks that fast to the hitter.

fyi, MLB Network says it is replaying NYY@TOR Game 2 from 9:30pm-11:30pm tonight
(the FS1 broadcast I assume).
Ref: https://www.mlb.com/network/tv-schedule (Mon Oct 6)
(Though it looks to me that their post-game coverage of LAD@PHI may go partly into that time, so the schedule may shift.)

Trey Yesavage has had a great 2025. Congratulations to him.

My personal opinion was that he would not be promoted to the Jays this year because his stats to me said that he was very good but not dominating. So could struggle in the major leagues.

I am admitting that I was wrong. I don't get upset about any wrong conclusions I make because I expect that to happen.

good on you bpoz!

for future reference, though, you'll probably want to consider 41.1k%, 76era-, 60fip-, 60xfip- as "dominating" !

The Ottavino podcast on Yesavage was great. The format and commentary is a good way to learn more about what makes an effective MLB pitcher in 2025.

So the so-called experts will refuse to believe that the Jays are a better team than the Yankees so, of course, there will be a game 5. And Gausman would be starting it, not Yesavage.

I put $100 on the Jays to win the series. If I had thought for sure the Jays were the better team, I could have bet a lot more. Both teams have strengths and weaknesses and I thought they were pretty evenly matched.

And if the worst case scenario happens, I'm guessing it will be Gausman starting game 5.

What grates about the 95% NY Win predictions is that everyone deep down inside knew that while this NY team was good on paper, they had flaws all over the place, only one certifiable current scary stud player, and not even great depth.

This isn't a team that should be anywhere near 90% favorites against any team, let alone a team as good as the Jays.

I also was a doubter of Yesavage - first pro season, big ask to put him in the majors/pennant race/playoffs. Clearly he was up to it. I feared his control escaping when facing ML hitters - figuring big league hitters would lay off his pitches out of the zone more. That one video showing how his motion is identical for different pitches is a 'wow' thing. I figure Yasser Mercedes who peaked in A this year must be bragging about his home run off Yesavage (the first HR he gave up this year in low A).

Thanks UO for explaining the "dominating" numbers. I cannot calculate them but you can. Stanifer had similar K numbers so maybe he has a chance to be good in 2026 or 2027.

Stanifer's numbers aren't quite as awesome as Yesavage's.....but they're really really good and I definitely think he looks like a very underrated prospect at the moment.

Stanifer is interesting. In 3 seasons his BB/9 went from 4.9 to 7.5 (yikes!) to 4.7 this year. K/9 from 9.9 to 9.7 to 13.2 (!) With 2 starts in AA this year I suspect that is where he starts 2026, with a shot at AAA by June if he can dominate quickly, majors by September if he can do it all year. Those BB/9 need to come down though. Lifetime 12 HR in 212 1/3 IP is nice though. Just 0.3 HR/9 this year suggests when contact is made it isn't killer contact. Like Yesavage this is his age 21 season. So by the end of 2026 we could have 2 guys who are 22 years old in the rotation. Wouldn't that be a change of pace!

This year just Francis had 10+ starts while being sub 30 (it is Lauer's age 30 season). Last year Francis and Rodriguez had 10+ starts while sub 30. In '23 it was Berrios & Manoah (age 25). '22 was the same 2 (both 30+ starts). '21 was Berrios & Ray & Manoah (age 23). Back in '19 we had a lot of sub 30's in Thornton, Sanchez, Stroman, Font, and Waguespack with 10+ starts. So for the contending years we've never seen more than 2 kids get a full shot at a rotation slot in a year with Manoah the only really young one (sub 25). The gang of kids in '19 shows that kids don't always develop, as does Manoah.

With kids starting to emerge this might be a sustainable team. Fingers crossed. Next year's CBT figure is at $207.44 mil before factoring in arbitration and minimum salary guys and any free agents signed (via Cot's). Arbitration is estimated at $23.9 mil via MLB Trade Rumors. So net of $231.34 which is actually below the luxury tax level ($244 mil) and far below this years payroll ($278.8 mil). This suggests resigning Bieber is very possible, or resigning Bo, although doing both would be difficult with $47 mil available roughly (Note: this is factoring in $14.55 mil for Bieber via the option that won't be picked up by him so there is more room). Post 2026 Gausman, Springer, Garcia all come off the payroll too. The question becomes who do you replace these guys with?

I expect to see the Jays being active after a starter and a reliever or two this winter. I'd be very surprised if Bo returns sadly as I'd love for him to be a lifetime Jay, just not at SS (so nice to watch Gimenez at SS now, bat sucks but glove is sweet).