Nimmala has played every inning at SS so far. At this point they seem very committed to developing him at SS, and not so interested in building his super utility credentials.

My guess is they want to build up organizational confidence that Arjun is fully the "SS of the future" to aid their decision making in terms of Parker and Sanchez

All the observers say Parker is very likely a 3B eventually and I wonder if, somewhere down the road, Sanchez doesn't find himself in an OF corner for lack of space on the dirt (assuming no one gets traded)

To have a little fun with a ridiculous crystal ball exercise projecting the 2030 lineup

C- Kirk (heading to FA)
1B - Vlad
2b - Kasavich
SS - Nimmala
3B - Parker (rookie)
RF - Barger (heading to FA unless signed in the meantime)
CF - Varsho (FA again - presumes a 4 year deal this winter)
LF - Juan Sanchez (not sure if he comes on that fast but this is just for fun)
DH - probably not in the system right now but could be a guy like Keyes rotating around or even a re-signed Kaz

My bias here is that I don't enjoy imagining "what if they sign a star like Tucker?" nearly as much as "what if Arjun is the next Lindor?" speculations.

2 games, 2 wins, 0 runs allowed combined. Sweet! 1-0 and 5-0. Barger 2 hits, one a homer, Clase showing off his crazy speed to get on. Kasevich keeps hitting. Gausman a solid 3 IP 3 H 0 BB 3 SO. Bastardo 1 2/3 IP 1 H 2 BB. Miles 1 IP 2 H 0 BB 3 SO. Nimmala 2 for 2 with a walk. Ponce 3 IP 0 H 0 BB 1 SO (sweet).

Very nice day for Jays baseball. Lets hope Team Canada keeps it going tonight against Panama (mandatory win - gotta beat the 2 weakest teams to be solid for making round 2 - then need to beat at least one of Cuba and PR).

Panama is managed by the Canadians manager José Mayorga, he has been criticized for his Management, I hope today is different, good luck.

2030? Long ways away.

Guys on current ML roster who would still be under team control in 2030: Hitters (5 + 2 club options): Kirk, Vlad, Barger, Gimenez (club option), Lukes, Santander (club option), Leo Jiménez; Pitchers (5) Cease, Yesavage, Varland, Little, Fisher.

So clearly lots of need for adding more guys by then. Some prospects will make it, some will flop, some will be traded. Who lands in which pile is impossible to know for sure (heck, same for guys on ML roster). Safe to say guys like Brandon Valenzuela, Charles McAdoo, Josh Kasevich, Arjun Nimmala, JoJo Parker, RJ Schreck, Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko, Gage Stanifer, Fernando Perez, Johnny King, and many others will have shots by then including guys not drafted yet.

Tough loss. The infield couldn't make any plays when the Big Maple pitched--3 outs on fastballs, just enough to lose 4-3.

Kasevich plays with intensity--Davis Schneider calls him "half-robot"--while Jimenez always looks relaxed, if not unfocused.

The deeper into spring we go the more I think Jimenez will stick, Kasevich will be everyday in AAA ready if an injury happens in the infield. I'm expecting a semi-platoon at SS with Jimenez/Gimenez sharing it (maybe Jimenez to 2B and Clement to SS vs tough LHP). So 2 positions in platoon setups, maybe 3. LF with (Lukes or Jesús Sánchez) mixed with (Schneider or Myles Straw or Eloy Jiménez). RF with the same RH as LF debate plus Barger from the left side. In CF Varsho will be everyday but get the odd day off vs a LHP with Straw going in for him. Thus why I say it'll all be semi-platoons as there are just 4 bench slots and if L Jimenez gets one, Heineman another, that is 2 for 2 RH OFers (Schneider/Straw most likely). The LH OF slot for LF is Lukes vs Sanchez or Eloy Jimenez could win it outright (131 wRC+ this spring so far) which could lead to a Schneider vs Lukes for a bench slot battle. The more I look at it the less space I see for Lukes. Just a roster crunch situation.

performance wise, the starters have all been good to very good, with Lukes included as a starter. the 4 bench guys schneider sanchez straw heineman have all struggled.

then three borderline guys have been really good - Lantigua, Mendoza, Kasevich. With Eloy and McAdoo also pretty good.

none of the AA or lower kids has done much so far, except the one guy that sticks out is Casey, both because he's been used exclusively in CF and because he's hit in his handful of PA....and because he really did have a legit awesome year last year. I doubt they bump him all the way up to AA to start the year but that might be where he belongs, and if he starts lower i hope a good start would result in quick promotion.

Casey had 64 ABs in low-A after graduating from college. I dont seen any scenario where he starts in AA. Low-A talent level is mostly at-par or below NCAA college ball.

I also don't see the Jays adding Kasevich to the 40-man just to play as a back-up infielder. He'll be up if/when Gimenez or Clement get hurt.

How have they done to date? Using the Blue Jays website for latest stats, 10+ AB's only for OF going from most AB to least

• Eloy Jiménez: 321/367/536 - making a strong case that he is ready to live up to his early promise as a top prospect with Vlad in the late teens.
• Sanchez: 240/321/240 1 SB 1 CS - hasn't shown much.
• Barger: 273/360/636 - I'd say his playoff shine hasn't vanished yet.
• Varsho: 409/458/727 - yeah, looks like he wants a mega deal.
• Yohendrick Pinango: 100/217/300 - had low odds and this ain't helping.
• Straw: 200/273/200 - meh. We know who he is and he will be on the team.
• Lukes: 211/375/368 - horrid average, 1 HR is all the power he has shown, counting on walks to keep the OPS up. Not impressing
• Schneider: 053/280/053 - yikes! As bad a spring as possible. He might be sent to Buffalo until he figures out which end of the bat to hold.
• Clase: 294/316/471 1-0 SB-CS, has looked good when I've seen him on TV. Had him as no shot pre-spring, but he might be making a case for an early call up at the very least.
• Schreck: 250/250/333 - odd, seemed like he was doing better. Big HR for Israel the other day, so if he hits well in Buffalo I wouldn't be shocked to see him get a shot mid-season.
• also: Leo Jimenez: 273/385/273 - an infielder but with limited bench slots the above guys need to show they are more valuable by a good measure or Leo gets that slot on the bench (no options so he has to stick or be lost).
• Springer: just 9 AB's 333/538/333 - he'll be ready when the bell rings.

The LF battle has a few guys, but right now if Lukes and Schneider are in AAA to start April it wouldn't shock me as neither has shown much this spring. Eloy looks like he might win the job outright if his defense can be acceptable for 8 innings each game (Straw out for the 9th in close games). Clase making a case for 2027's leadoff role, just needs to take a few more walks or start hitting 350 (no more options after '26).

I wouldn't be shocked at this stage to see a Eloy/Lukes LF mix/match to start off, with Straw for defense, and Leo as the other bench guy.

Note: here is the 2018 top prospect list. Eloy is #4 after Ohtani, Acuna Jr, and Vlad. Fangraphs had it Ohtani, Acuna, Vlad, Victor Robles (very good years in '19 and '24, sucked otherwise), Tatis Jr, Eloy. Interesting to see how guys often can show a lot early on then flop.

yeah but he legit demolished both NCAA and A (82pa) last year, at age 22.

they had a choice where to slot him in out of college, and it looks like they slotted him too low. They could easily have slotted him right into A+ out of college, but as usual they were conservative.

you're right though that the jays won't skip him over A+, but hopefully a good start in A+ would lead to a quick promotion.


Casey (22): NCAA 260pa, 183wrc+ ---> A 82pa, 172wrc+


Keys (21): NCAA 214pa, 216wrc+ ---> A 98pa, 134wrc+
Keys (22): A+ 529pa, 119wrc+

Parker (21): NCAA 224pa, 167wrc+ ---> A 100pa, 154wrc+
Parker (22): A+ 276pa, 90wrc+ (injured)

Roden (22): NCAA 242pa, 174wrc+ ---> A 115pa 105wrc+
Roden (23): A+ 323pa, 154wrc+ ---> AA 209pa, 147wrc+

Tirotta (22): NCAA 222pa, 175wrc+ ---> A 119pa, 134wrc+
Tirotta (23): A+ 283pa, 96wrc+ (injured)

Bohrofen (21): NCAA 267pa, 129wrc+ ---> A 77pa, 189wrc+
Bohrofen (22): A+ 485pa, 130wrc+

Micheletti (22): NCAA 240pa, 130wrc+ ---> A 90pa, 155wrc+
Micheletti (23): A+ 464pa, 124wrc+

Schreck (22): NCAA 292pa, 129wrc+ ---> A 102pa, 102wrc+
Schreck (23): A+ 344pa, 140wrc+ ---> AA 148pa, 136wrc+

Freethy (21): NCAA 241pa, 127wrc+ ---> A 76pa, 110wrc+
Freethy (22): A 193pa, 129wrc+ ---> A+ 120pa, 117wrc+ ---> AA 12pa, 141wrc+

Goodwin (21): NCAA 274pa, 105wrc+ ---> A 114pa, 112wrc+ ---> A+ 21pa, 159wrc+
Goodwin (22): NCAA 451pa, 75wrc+

Kasevich (21): NCAA 277pa, 101wrc+ ---> A 122pa, 100wrc+
Kasevich (22): A+ 383pa, 107wrc+




yeah unfortunately not a lot of evidence for the possibility of a quick promotion, even if he's hitting well in A+. Ah well.

I don't know much about Casey, but he does have a pretty and level stroke from the left side.  The issue seems to be whether he can learn to hit a curveball.  It's not a bad bet with that swing.  He hasn't made the Blue Jays top 40 prospects according to Fangraphs, but he would make my list.  

What that list of uo's highlights is how poorly Kasevich has hit to date relative to other recent college draftees.

The bar for a middle infielder is a lot lower than for an outfielder, and the defensive demands sometimes means that middle infielders develop slower with the bat.  Espinal and Clement are the latest two examples of that.  And if I'm looking behind the actual production to opportunities for growth, give me the player with control of the strike zone, a high line drive rate and good exit velocities.  That's Kasevich.  Statcast said that his double yesterday was at 22 degrees, left the bat at 105 mph and went 390 feet.  He's going to hit some doubles this year, wherever he is.  

yeah his line is mostly good other than the lack of power. if those exit velocities every turn into xbh then his line should look solid.

if we somehow manage not to lose anyone to waivers.....


MLB (13 hitters)

CF Varsho
RF Barger
LF Lukes
3B Okamoto
SS Gimenez
2B Clement
1B Guerrero
C Alejandro
DH Springer

OF Sanchez
OF Straw
IF Schneider
C Heineman


With last 2yrs stats:

AAA (14 hitters)

CF Clase 24 ----- MLB 178pa, 76wrc+ --- AAA 778pa, 101wrc+ --- AA 0pa
RF Schreck 25 --- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 234pa, 129wrc+ --- AA 317pa, 152wrc+
LF Pinango 24 --- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 324pa, 96wrc+ ---- AA 544pa, 112wrc+
3B McAdoo 24 ---- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ------- AA 755pa, 110wrc+
SS Kasevich 25 -- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 287pa, 86wrc+ ---- AA 393pa, 102wrc+
2B Jimenez 25 --- MLB 242pa, 85wrc+ --- AAA 297pa, 135wrc+ --- AA 0pa
1B Tirotta 27 --- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 805pa, 112wrc+ --- AA 73pa, 160wrc+
DH Eloy 29 ------ MLB 349pa, 78wrc+ --- AAA 188pa, 88wrc+ ---- AA 0pa
C Valenzuela 25 - MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 195pa, 56wrc+ ---- AA 721pa, 106wrc+

I think these are probably the guys they want starting in AAA. The only guys actually old here are Tirotta and Eloy, and Eloy is here for obvious reasons, so it's only really Tirotta that looks like a lost cause here. Whether Leo makes it down through waivers is the big question mark.

Then I think these would be the 5 guys that would finish off the roster:

UT Mendoza 26 --- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 58pa, 133wrc+ ---- AA 865pa, 133wrc+
OF Munguia 27 --- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 493pa, 86wrc+ ---- AA 194pa, 152wrc+
IF Lantigua 28 -- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 1016pa, 95wrc+ --- AA 0pa
IF Rivera 25 ---- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 394pa, 86wrc+ ---- AA 414pa, 51wrc+
C Stubbs 29 ----- MLB 3pa, -100wrc+ --- AAA 141pa, 113wrc+ --- AA 425pa, 77wrc+

With these two in contention too, especially if they need 3 catchers, but for me i'd rather they were pushed down to AA:

OF Ward 26 ------ MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ------- AA 198pa, 102wrc+
C Brooks 27 ----- MLB 0pa, 0wrc+ ------ AAA 11pa, 36wrc+ ----- AA 198pa, 50wrc+

TBH I'm legit at least somewhat interested in all of Munguia, Mendoza, and Lantigua as plausible depth guys. Munguia is currently Nicaragua's best player in the WBC and seems to be a legit CF.



AA (14 hitters)

There's not really a natural CF down here, unless a guy like Ward can do it. This might be why Jay Harry has been getting reps in CF this spring.

CF Ward 26 ------ AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- AA 198pa, 102wrc+ ----- A+ 481pa, 137wrc+
RF Bohrofen 24 -- AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- AA 335pa, 102wrc+ ----- A+ 485pa, 130wrc+
LF Micheletti 24 - AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ---- AA 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A+ 464pa, 124wrc+
3B Coffey 22 ---- AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- AA 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A+ 808pa, 114wrc+
SS Goodwin 24 --- AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- AA 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A+ 836pa, 95wrc+
2B Harry 23 ----- AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- AA 141pa, 46wrc+ ------ A+ 673pa, 87wrc+
1B Keys 23 ------ AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- AA 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A+ 529pa, 119wrc+
DH Hornung 25 --- AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- AA 214pa, 127wrc+ ----- A+ 652pa, 117wrc+
C Planchart 24 -- AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- AA 12pa, 108wrc+ ------ A+ 379pa, 90wrc+

UT Cunningham 25 - AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ---- AA 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A+ 419pa, 113wrc+
UT Freethy 23 ---- AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ---- AA 12pa, 141wrc+ ------ A+ 120pa, 117wrc+
IF Doughty 25 ---- AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ---- AA 487pa, 69wrc+ ------ A+ 0pa
C Parker 23 ------ AAA 0pa, 0wrc+ ---- AA 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A+ 276pa, 90wrc+

C Brooks 27 ------ AAA 11pa, 36wrc+ ----- AA 198pa, 50wrc+ --- A+ 97pa, 129wrc+

There's a couple names here who arguably have earned an AAA shot by now (Bohorofen, Hornung) but they're probably nothing to stress about. There's also guys who haven't really earned this promotion to AA here, like Doughty and Harry.



The only other guys who have played this spring likely won't start as high as AA:

UT Toman 22 ------ AA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- A+ 53pa, 125wrc+ ------ A 697pa, 95wrc+
OF Casey 23 ------ AA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- A+ 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A 82pa, 172wrc+
IF Nimmala 20 ---- AA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- A+ 543pa, 92wrc+ ------ A 361pa, 121wrc+
C Duran 22 ------- AA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- A+ 140pa, 91wrc+ ------ A 618pa, 113wrc+

OF Barry 24 ------ AA 12pa, 89wrc+ --- A+ 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A 240pa, 99wrc+
IF Latta 23 ------ AA 0pa, 0wrc+ ----- A+ 0pa, 0wrc+ --------- A 100pa, 95wrc+

I imagine Atlanta is missing some guys at the WBC, but this is a pretty execrable lineup. I thought the informal rule was you bring a couple major-league guys for away games.

When evaluating players in the spring remember that it is both a very small sample size and a lot depends on the skill of the pitchers that they face. Often the minor leaguers that hit well have benefited from also facing AA pitching, not ML-caliber pitching (and even ML-caliber pitching early might be not throwing all their pitches as they are starting warming up).

Still better to have great spring numbers then not, but temper the expectations a little (or look at the strength of pitcher they've faced too).

BR has this years spring stats with a OppQual column

I think they're missing only Acuna and Albies.
They had 9 regulars in the home game yesterday and none today.

Ritchie is not on their 40 roster.
Suarez is their long man.

Schreck playing CF for Israel tonight.

canada ties it up!

and the lead!

back 2 back bases loaded walks.

got Arenado to end the 8th.

canada up 1 into the 9th.

Clarke's got range. 1 down.

boom. yuge win.

could finish top of the group with a win tomorrow.

​Tho Italy is pummeling USA which might push USA to 2nd which means we wouldn't want 1st.

Technically, USA could be out if the lose to Mexico tomorrow tho.

It's first or nothing.
A loss and Puerto Rico and Cuba advance.

It seems telling that Lauer is the starter today against the Yankees.
On one hand, he's not expected to start. On the other, he's given the opportunity to show what he can do.

I also like Scherzer starting on the road against Detroit.

Love the USA loss to Italy. Good reminder that no one should take games as a given. A shame Italy didn't score 2 more pre the USA coming back so it could've been a mercy rule loss - now that would've been as humiliating as possible :)

Turns out DeRosa thought the americans had already qualified after starting 3-0. That's embarassing.

Canada BOOOOOM

thank you, Yuriel.

"Monster strikeout for Adam Macko, and Canada wiggles out of the jam in the 6th."

attaboy macko that was huge.

Paxton throwing 97mph.
Cuban hitters whiffing again and again.

That was the all-time best Canadian team and probably the worse Cuban team.
They were missing a lot of guys--probably because of political reasons.

They played horrible defense.
The equipment catcher interference was a huge blow to Yuriel.

Cuba played like a little league team in the field. Very unlike them.

Even in retirement, Paxton looked like he could help a team in the pen this year. Yariel did not.

Congrats to Team Canada.

Canada won't have to worry about facing the USA if Mexico wins tonight's game against Italy and does it while scoring 4 runs or fewer.

If I ran a ML team I'd be talking to Paxton's reps to see if he might be interested in another season in the pen.

Ah well, looks like Canada faces the USA next while PR gets Italy. Of course, given how Italy handled the USA earlier maybe this isn't a bad thing. Italy is also pounding Mexico tonight 9-1 in the 9th.

Mexico didn't have the pitching.

Vladdy torching the WBC as much as he did the playoffs.

Maybe that change in approach he said he took into the playoffs is a legit longterm upgrade.

The Yankees number 2 prospect, Lagrange, scared me.
6' 7", threw 102 mph with angles like Yeasavage.

from BA

"this spring, Bastardo’s fastball has improved. His four-seamer has averaged 96.8 mph and topped out at 98.4 mph. In 2024, the pitch averaged 95.2 mph with a 98.2 mph max. While his top-end velocity hasn’t increased much, the 1.6 mph jump in average velocity is noteworthy, and he’s also missing more bats. Bastardo’s whiff rate is 22.2% this spring compared to 16.3% in 2024."

Arden Zwelling@ArdenZwelling

Jose Berrios has been scratched from his start against the Phillies on Thursday

A recent MRI during the WBC insurance process revealed inflammation in his right elbow — a different issue than the one he dealt with last season

Arden Zwelling @ArdenZwelling

Berrios says he feels good and is pain-free. He’ll continue throwing in the coming days while the Blue Jays continue to gather more information / opinions to determine next steps

Currently unclear what it means for his availability to begin regular season

It is always amazing about how quickly and easily it is to go from there are too many pitchers for the starting rotation to, we may well not have enough healthy and effective starting pitchers for the rotation.

Agreed. The Scherzer signing looks better in light of this news (interesting that Berrios's current level of elbow inflammation would not have been discovered but for the WBC insurance MRI).

I like the Blue Jays' approach this spring of ramping their starting pitchers up slowly and taking a load management approach with at least some of them.

Vladdy's last 10pa:

I've been hopeful that Vlad figured out something during the playoffs last year and that it would flow into 2026. Promising. If so then we might be looking at him having a year like 2021 which would do wonders and easily justify his massive contract. Of course, hitting balls 100+ MPH has always been a strength of his, but getting a bit more loft is the challenge. 7 for 10 there with 1 double and 2 homers = an insane 700/700/1400 line (2100 OPS).

I'm sure we posted this here somewhere already but it's definitely a reason to hope he's reached a new level:

"According to Guerrero, the difference stemmed from a subtle but meaningful adjustment at the plate, one encouraged by hitting coach David Popkins.
Instead of prioritizing going the other way, Guerrero shifted his focus to doing damage.
"In the playoffs, every time I went to the plate, I looked for damage," Guerrero explained on MLB Network. "In the season [I just] tried to take the ball the other way. Now, [Popkins] tells me let's do the same, let's go to home plate and do damage."



Of course a hot streak is only a hot streak - even if the approach has changed that doesn't mean that pitchers won't now make new adjustments to his new approach that he will then have to counter. If this ends up with him swinging wildly at junk again like he did for a couple of years then it could end up worse overall.

But for me i've never doubted vladdy's talent so him finally unlocking a true mvp-level bat wouldn't surprise me at all.

And it's the most important thing for the team because while this team is very good and very deep, the one thing they lack compared to other top teams is true elite impact players - no mvp bat, no cy SP, no ace RP.

But in the playoffs Vladdy did become that kind of player and it turned us into a legit elite team. If he can keep being that kind of guy then we look pretty amazing.

“Do damage” is back!!!! I hope it goes better than the first time.

Unless there’s something in his arsenal that he hasn’t shown yet, Ponce is a reliever long term. Every spring starts has been the same - his 4 seam FB is excellent (consistently 96-97) and all of his secondaries are meh to poor. I don’t see another pitch that is going to get major league hitters out consistently. All of which probably aligns with the team’s needs. Ponce will have some time before the league gets a read on him which will allow the other starters time to get healthy.

I think he was telling media after the signing that he signed here because the Jays said he could start.

I’m sure he will start to start the season. The Jays don’t have enough healthy starters to do otherwise. Plus he will have the lack of familiarity advantage as he works through his early starts. But he looks like he has the Yariel problem, albeit with what looks like better control.

I could see tandem starts for awhile for Ponce - probably with Yesavage. Ponce starts (1-5), Yesavage for 6-9 at first, then 5-9 later depending how Ponce does. If both are going well then things get complicated in a good way.

As to Cy contenders - Gausman was 9th his first year here, 3rd his second, and had more bWAR last year than any other year as a Jay (3.8). So he has to be considered a real contender for the Cy. Cease has a 2nd and 4th place finish (22 and 24) so he is a contender too. So 2 realistic Cy contenders, an MVP contender, doubt Hoffman is a closer of the year contender but in interviews I like his attitude about last year - feeling he let the guys down, but knows it was a team thing (IKF, also if only Kirk had a dinger in him he'd be a hero forever, instead of a double play, plus no shortage of other opportunities to win after the blown save).

Both Okamoto and Yesavage are strong rookie of the year candidates (not sure if they ever closed the Japan loophole in the rules). This should be a fun year.

Funny, looking at spring stats at BR Heineman who was doing poorly a few days ago is now up to over 1000 for OPS. Shows how fast spring stats can change. Schneider's still sucks though at a 448 OPS in 31 PA but that is rising.

On another note - Varsho's power surge from last year hasn't quieted down yet.

Venenzuela looks solid. That was a nice trade.

Eloy Jimenez still looks like the next DH.

for the first time, today 2 of the "regulars" came off the bench - Lukes came in for Sanchez in RF, and Straw came in for Varsho in CF.

every outing for every regular before this was as a starter.

For Straw that is the role he will have - backup for Varsho to give him rests. Lukes that is a bad sign though for him. Lukes is hitting fine - 261/419/391 and Sanchez isn't 206/270/235 but as we all know spring is all about getting guys ready. Springer had a sub 600 OPS last spring and was super from day 1 while Roden was 'WOW' in spring, crap in the regular season. Not sure what the Jays are looking for from each guy but I suspect a lot more was decided pre-spring than we know of.

Yeah i haven't really even looked at any spring stats so far. not only are they just spring stats, but at this point they're still super tiny samples, so really they don't mean anything. and in general i think spring performance has meant less and less to teams' management over the years, and don't think it has much to do with who makes the team. Especially on a top team like ours.

For me i'm really only interested in trying to figure out what the FO has in mind coming into spring, because i don't think player performance will likely change what they already had planned.

but yeah bad news for Lukes here i think.

vladdy with the flying slide for a 1-0 lead!

Canada needed to do all the little things right, and be lucky, to win this one. So far that has not happened.

Yeah, I tend to look mostly at 1: playing time and 2: who they face. If a guy faces only low end minor leaguers odds are he isn't in the plans. If a guy gets lots of PA mostly vs ML'ers then he is either in the plans or they are looking really closely at him.

BR has a measurement tool for it - OppQual. Highest is Kelena Sauer who saw 1 guy and got a 9.4 for that (got him out). For noteworthy guys... (10+ PA's)

• C: Kirk 7.6, Heinemann 7.4, Valenzuela 7.4 (965 OPS!)
• IF (2B/3B/SS): Leo Jimenez 7.9, Barger 7.6, Clement 7.6, Okamoto 7.6, Nimmala 7.5 (675 OPS too, kid is impressive for someone who hasn't reached AA yet), Giménez 7.5, Kasevich 7.0 (919 OPS), McAdoo 7.0 (761 OPS), Josh Rivera 6.4 (19 PA 728 OPS), Coffey 6.4 (214 OPS), Mendoza 6.2 (1.026 OPS)
• OF: Clase 7.9 (768 OPS - Jays looking closely at him), Straw 7.7, Sánchez 7.5 (552 OPS), Varsho 7.4 (1.148 OPS pre today's 2 HR), Schreck 7.4 (467 OPS - odd, felt he was doing better, 855 OPS for Israel in WBC), Lukes 7.2 (842), Pinango 6.9, Lantigua 6.7 (997 OPS)
• 1B/DH: Vlad 7.6, Eloy Jiménez 7.4 (812 OPS), Keys 7.4 (761), Tirotta 7.3 (767), Springer 7.3 (538 - similar to last spring)
• Utility: Schneider 7.6 (448)

Most are 7's which is AA/AAA level (7=AA, 8=AAA, 10=ML, 5 A+, 4 A, lower for short season/non-pros pre 2026). Few obvious trends there as a player can shift 0.3 easily with so few PA's (35 for Eloy is the most before today's game). The next week who starts and who subs will say a lot about pecking order. Some guys are clearly just backups (Straw, Heineman) while the regulars need their early PA and those fighting need theirs too. Lukes had 30, Schneider 31, Sanchez 34, Eloy 35 to cover most of the guys fighting for LF/bench. Eloy's lack of defensive talent will hurt him - he needs to slug his way onto this roster. Being RH helps Schneider as does his ability to play 2B - I'd be very surprised if he doesn't make it despite his horrid batting this spring. Lukes/Sanchez are both LH bats though and I suspect just 1 will make the team. Clase has just 22 PA, significantly fewer than the others, so he is probably earmarked for AAA but could be up if others slump or there is a need for speed.

Of note: FanGraphs has Sanchez in LF, Barger in RF, with Straw and Schneider playing vs LHP in those positions. They have Lukes on the bench too, which would mean Leo Jimenez is gone. But I think Leo makes the team in a semi-platoon with Gimenez as Gimenez sucks vs LHP. Of course, they could put Schneider in at 2B vs LHP and keep one of Sanchez or Barger in the OF those days with Straw covering the other. If they keep Jimenez then they can sub for all 3 vs LHP though. Lots to debate for the Jays and I'm sure each player has a supporter in the front office.

canada gets a run!

not totally over yet.

BOOOOOOM GAME ON BABY

Yuge test for Macko here

Great inning by Macko. Looks like he could potentially be a useful bullpen arm for Toronto this season.

Great job by Macko.

adam macko, baby



Harper K

Judge lazy fly

Schwarber K swinging



let's f'ing go

they're starting to believe.

oof and oof

come on caisse be a hero again

dammit. good at bat but that hurts.

Wilkinson is having a blast.

They only lose when they make errors.
So much for that scary US team.

Good game for Canada through 8.5 innings, apart from the Toro high throw that cost two runs — the difference in the game.

They competed well against a juggernaut of a team in the USA.

Can they grab a couple of runs or more in the ninth to tie or win it?

Battling

Damn.

Lost it on an error. That's tough.

Very good showing but Canada really hurt by guys not showing up and man, Naylor and O'Neill were awful. Hopefully, some more development happens and team is better next tournament.

Young worked what should have been a leadoff walk but got screwed by the home plate ump on the 3-2 FB by Miller (very close pitch that looked to be inside).

Good for Macko to have the WBC experience. Guessing we will see him pitch for the Blue Jays at some point this year.

Sportsnet has a good piece on Varsho and the hitting adjustments he’s making with the help of Popkins.

The article also mentions that he is “buoyed by the fact that he was healthy this past winter. It was very different from the previous winter, which he spent rehabbing his shoulder.”

I think Varsho could have a very good season if he can stay healthy. Even if his improved productivity is mainly the result of improved health, resulting in a 3-4 WAR player in 150 games or so, he’ll be a valuable player for Toronto and could help them get back to the postseason.

Let’s hope he puts it all together this year and posts something like a 110 wRC+ and 5 WAR in a healthy season.

Scherzer having another terrific start.

One potential concern going forward is how he’ll hold up in the relatively cold weather months of April and May. He has mentioned the hot Florida weather as a factor that is helping his body feel good at the moment.

Yimi threw off a mound today.

As Jay fans we have to be enjoying how assorted Jays are doing in the WBC - Macko 3 games, 2 1/3 IP 3 H 1 BB 4 SO 0 R despite facing the USA. Schreck 4 games 182/400/455 (3 hits, all for extra bases, plus 4 walks vs 2 K's). Regulars not doing so well mostly: Clement just 1 for 5, Gimenez 1 for 7, Okamoto 2 for 15. But Vlad...WOW...500/529/1.071 7 for 14 with 2 HR 2 walks 2 doubles in 4 games. Yeah, he loves pressure games. Leo Jimenez (0-5 with a walk), Yariel Rodriguez (6 IP 4 H 4 R 1 ER 0 BB 10 SO), CJ Stubbs (0-7 with a sac bunt), Will Cresswell (0 for 1), Ismael Munguia (429/529/429 in 4 G 17 PA) all also played. Yariel showed a lot of K ability, but was shaky when it mattered most (vs Canada - 1 2/3 3 H 4 R 1 ER).

Wonder if any of the Jays will play for the USA tomorrow vs Dominican? Clement, Tyler Rogers, Hoffman (replacing Clayton Kerhsaw who didn't throw a pitch for team USA after coming out of retirement for this). DR has Vlad and that's it for Jays on their team - damn that team looks good with Soto and Tatis Jr in the OF, Manny Machado at 3B, Ketel Marte at 2B, etc. Should be a real barn burner - a 10-9 game wouldn't shock me.

Varsho with a home run to CF in today’s game. He’s hitting .455/.486/1.000 with one K (and one walk) this spring.

with the usual caveat about spring stats, I'm coming around to a new base batting order:

Springer
Bam Bam
Vlad
Varsho
Kaz
Sanchez/Schneider
Kirk
Clement
Gimenez

Interesting lineup TamRa.

I'm more vs RHP...
Springer-Barger-Vlad-Varsho-Okamoto-Kirk-Sanchez-Clement-Gimenez

vs LHP...
Springer-Schneider-Vlad-Okamoto-Kirk-Barger-Clement-Varsho-L Jimenez. Might bench one of Barger or Varsho for Straw each time vs a LHP though. Could see Clement and Schneider trading spots, but Schneider might help Vlad due to his patience. Vlad has said he likes to see as many pitches as possible before hitting.

WBC lots of fun still - Italy moving on eliminating PR. Now leadoff HR's for both Japan and Valenzuela. USA vs DR will be a fun one, Italy vs whoever wins tonight should be good too. I'm hoping for an Italy vs DR final.

Seiya Suzuki suffered a knee injury on an attempted SB in tonight’s WBC game. He limped off the field. The Cubs are not going to be happy about that.

Okamoto with a sweet line-drive double off Bazardo in the third inning.

Okamoto has struggled with the glove during the WBC.

Didn't appear that way to me - 42 innings at 3B, 1 PO 13 Assists, 1 error, 3 double plays is fairly solid play at 3B. In Jays camp he has 18 innings at 3B 2 PO 6 assists 0 errors 0 DP. Net: 60 innings, 3 PO 19 assists, 1 error, 3 DP. Over 1200 innings (full season) that'd be 60 PO 380 assists, 20 errors, 60 DP - Chapman in '23 won the gold glove with 114 PO 253 assists 12 errors and 35 DP's. Don't have advanced stats for spring/WBC so basic is all we have plus eyes. By basic stats Okamoto has done fine, by the eye test I liked what I saw. We'll see how he does soon enough.

My concern is LF - Sanchez has shown nada with the bat (506 OPS), Lukes has been good but not enough to change anyones mind (811), Straw has been bad (442) but that is secondary, Clase showed promise (729), Schneider has been ugly (405), and Eloy Jimenez barely has seen the field (2 RF, 2 LF, 10 DH, 1 1B) with an 861 OPS (solid but not WOW and he needs WOW with his defense). Rafael Lantigua has probably hit the best (913) but isn't getting a shot (sub AA quality pitching faced so far, split 2B/LF, 2B/3B in AAA last year with a bit at SS and LF as well - hmm, might be a good backup but around 700 OPS the past 2 years in AAA and now is in his age 28 season).

Sanchez has always hit like a pitcher against lefties. He's faced a lot of them in the spring.
I sure hope the plan is to platoon him, but the spring is about looking at guys more than winning games.

I was surprised to see McAdoo at 1B.
Maybe he was, too.
He plays like he's using someone else's glove.

June - I watched three of Japan’s games. He misplayed 3 grounders in three games. In last night’s game he whiffed on a simple GB.

I only looked at the boxscores.
He's got an error on an errand throw.
Japan crushed 3 of their pool opponents and Australia made it close with homeruns.
In the quarter finale, I didn't see any hit recorded against third base.

The funny thing in the WBC is the Big Dumper not registering a hit and snubbing both Arozarena and Josh Naylor.
Will he do the same with Julio Rodriguez tonight?

I recommend checking out the WBC. The last few games including this one have been thrilling to watch.

Tyler Rogers just came on and got a key DP ground ball from Juan Soto to preserve a 2-1 USA lead and get out of the 5th inning.

Agreed. The WBC has been highly entertaining on the whole.

Céspedes Family BBQ

@CespedesBBQ
·
46m
116.1 MPH EV double from Vlad Jr. is the hardest hit ball Paul Skenes has allowed since debuting in the majors (previous high was Addison Barger, a 115.8 MPH double last August)

I thought leaving Severino in to start the fourth inning was a mistake. He pitched brilliantly through 3IP, but those were high-intensity innings in mid-March in which Severino was throwing 97-100. Should have gone to the lefty to pitch to Gunnar (who has huge L/R splits) at that point.

Guess Pujols didn’t feel super-confident about bringing Soto in.

Based on the television broadcast, the US won on a bad 3-2 call on Perdomo (breaking ball below the zone called strike three) with Julio Rodriguez left stranded on third base and Tatis Jr. on deck.

Brutal call after Perdomo battled really well against Miller during the PA.

Ump absolutely screwed the dominicans all game, but nothing was worse than that last call. Utter BS.

That call is a good reminder to MLB teams in 2026 to save the ABS challenges for critical calls. Don’t waste the challenges on minor blown calls (unless they’re obviously bad and therefore won’t lose a challenge).

Key blown calls against the DR graphic:

https://x.com/Brandon_N_Wile/status/2033380224138711494

Weird Jays game - the starting 9 played the whole game - very rare at any point of spring. Only 5 innings though so that probably explains it. Game called with 1 out in the 6th.

I thought Tatis making the 3rd out at 3B was really bad when the goal was to get Skenes out of the game.

Tyler Rogers was used just to get a double play ball.

DeRosa was criticised for leaving Gunnar on the bench up to this point.

I thought Severino leaving with a tie was a win.

It's just a result of Vladdy being in WBC, and Okamoto (likely our primary backup 1B) too, but a fun little artifact of spring training so far is that Tirotta leads all jays in game appearances so far (20), and also leads in games started among all non-regulars (10), tied with Eloy.

Also happens to be having a solid spring with an .828ops.

Not that I think it means anything or that Tirotta is actually in the plans at all, but it's kinda cool for him at least. Probably his last chance to make any kind of impression, even if he's probably out of chances tbh.

Nice seeing a guy like Tirotta getting as much of a chance to open eyes as he's had. Entering his age 27 season odds are his best hope is just to make it so he can say he made it, then to hang on as a backup in the majors long enough to get a pension. High 700's low 800's OPS guy in AAA, 3B/RF/1B/who can play SS when needed (9 2/3 innings last year) has some value in modern short bench baseball. L/R split was 930/741 last year making him a good platoon guy potentially. I could see the Jays calling him up under certain circumstances, but odds are he is playing for someone to grab him as an add in for a trade or for when he goes to minor league free agency after this year.

With only Giminez and Clement left in the WBC amongst position players, the following players join the previously-demoted Parker and Coffey in minor league camp: Nimmala, McAdoo, Keys, Planchart.

Clase has also been optioned to AAA, though i don't know if that means he's in minor league camp or not.

I thought McAdoo looked the most interesting of those names and of the fringe prospects. Nothing earth shattering, but he looked like he can play a decent 3B and do a bit of everything offensively.

here's a games-played tracker for spring so far btw. with my best guess at where the current players slot in by level in the end, assuming we don't lose anyone (which we will of course).

There's not a tonne of revelations so far in Spring Training. With a week left, I think there are a few hints, the hopes of spring:

1. Varsho looks like he's picking up where he left off. More power, more aggression and less contact was what he did last season, and it mostly worked. We are continuing to see the power and aggressive approach. But he's making hugely more contact this Spring. Late-career breakouts are rare, but you couldn't ask more from Varsho this Spring.

2. Vlad made lots of contact (only one whiff in 12 PA), but poor contact, while he was in camp. In the WBC he's been making incredible contact quality - his EV average was 101.5 - and still has not struck out this year. You might still want a little more elevation, but he's been lights-out.

3. The only real competitive spot on the diamond has been left field. It's not as if Lukes has beaten off his challengers by mighty deeds, it's that neither Sanchez nor Schneider (nor for that matter, Schreck or Pinango) have done anything impressive this spring. Lukes has looked more-or-less like himself, and that should be enough to keep his job. The outfield still has an extra player in it, and right now I would guess that Schneider will be optioned despite his right-handedness, absent a trade or injury.

Neither Gimenez or Clement are playing much.
Torres hasn't hit either and I don't think he's great in defense.

Clement is competing for ABs with Witt, Gunnar Henderson and Turang.

Varsho is a great low ball hitter.
They attack him with high fastballs which he doesn't hit well.
Maybe the ABS will help him lay off the ones out of the zone.

They traded for Sanchez, so he should start most games in LF.
He cannot hit lefties at all, so there's a need for a platoon bat.
There's a bunch of options and it doesn't have to be merit based.

Now, for spring revelations:
Valenzuela has looked solid and MLB ready.
Bastardo has looked good enough to hold onto.
There's a number of guys who have looked good enough for a call up  but are probably not in consideration for a 26 roster spot.
Eloy Jimenez has looked quite good. .278 .333 .528

I suspect the Jays want someone to cover 2B or SS on the roster other than Clement & Gimenez. Schneider, Leo Jimenez, are the only guys who really fit that. Both being RH is a plus since you want Gimenez to miss as many LH pitchers as possible. Could a mix/match of Sanchez/Lukes work in LF? Maybe. Then one of Leo or Schneider for the IF backup. Schneider's advantage is playing LF and 2B but at a lower level than Jimenez at 2B plus Jimenez can cover SS if needed. I'd probably keep both RH bats and dump one of Lukes or Sanchez to AAA but Sanchez has no options left, while Lukes has 1 (Schneider 2, Jimenez 0). Also remember how each performed recently and is likely to based on projections. BP DRC+, FG wRC+

• BP: Sanchez: 103, Eloy Jimenez: 103, Barger: 97, Lukes: 96, Schneider: 96, Straw: 81
• FG ZIPS: Schneider: 112, Barger: 109, Lukes: 107, Sanchez: 104, Eloy Jimenez: 87, Straw: 75
• FG Steamer: Barger: 110, Lukes: 108, Sanchez 107, Schneider 104, Eloy Jimenez: 92, Straw: 71

Interesting to look at 3 different systems. For the RF/LF situation we get 3 different leaders but all 3 have Straw at the bottom (shocking I know). Averages: Barger 105, Sanchez 104, Schneider 104, Lukes 104, Eloy 94, Straw 76. Given all of that I'd say the Schnedier/Lukes/Sanchez battle is down to defense which is a big plus for Sanchez, and versatility which is a big plus for Schneider. Lukes has solid defense, but is limited to the OF like Sanchez. Eloy should be left in AAA hoping for a chance if Springer or Vlad go on the IL at some point. Straw is Varsho's caddy.

Venezuela has maybe the worst lineup construction I've seen in like 25 years. Their #3 hitter had a 104 WRC+ last year. #5 hitter had a 78 WRC+. Their #8/9 hitters had 113/111 WRC+. Wilson Contrares who isn't even playing, had a 124 WRC+.

Another exciting WBC game tonight. Nice to see Gimenez being inserted as a PR and coming around to score.

Nicolas chewed Gimenez up at the plate the next inning, striking him out on soft and hard inside pitches.

I am concerned about Gimenez’s offense this season. I think the offensive weakness at a few positions (especially once the team sustains some injuries) is going to hold the team back somewhat this year. On the other hand, I think the improved pitching will help them win around 87-95 games (at the high end if they can effectively add talent at the trade deadline).

I don't see injuries as a real issue. They have the depth to cover for that.

I'm more worried about handing guaranteed starting spots to a guy like Gimenez, and not giving other deserved guys with likely better bats their fair chance.

I'm totally comfortable with Gimenez.  ZiPS has him projected as a 3+ Win player in 2026, which makes sense to me. He's an excellent fielder and a good baserunner.  Last year, he was very unlucky. A BABIP of .239 cost him 40-50 points on his batting average and on-base percentage.  By all rights, he would have been just below average as a hitter.  For his career, he has a wOBA of .306 and an xwOBA of .306.  Last year, he had an xwOBA of .308, but had as much bad luck as he had good luck in his excellent 2022 season.   

The various projection systems listed on Fangraphs have Gimenez down for around 1.9-3.3 WAR and 82-95 wRC+ in 2026.

I think he could end up having a good season as a stand-alone player (I've always liked elite defenders). I guess I'm wondering how the overall offense is going to look when an injury or two inevitably hits and there is a string of below-average hitters in the lineup.

It could all work out, or we could end up pining for that one additional excellent bat many of us wanted the Blue Jays to sign this offseason.

On a positive note, I thought Gimenez looked good running from first to third on a base hit last night for Venezuela. Hopefully he's fully healthy and can make the most of his baserunning game in 2026. That would help bolster his overall value to the team.

the problem is that the gamble was that it was Gimenez' 2024 that was the outlier bad luck year, and that he would bounce back from there to his usual level.

but then he was much worse in 2025.

True uo - and my criticism of the deal on the day it was made was that Gimenez was a luxury at a big salary in 2025 given that they already had that player on the roster in Clement. The one justification for the deal was that Gimenez was the plan for the middle infield when Bichette left. That has come to pass - so the fact that Gimenez is really Clement and not the All Star from 2022 is far less of an issue. I'm not sure that they can carry the 70 wRC+ version of Gimenez but they can use the 90 wRC+ version. Hoping that the 2022 version of Gimenez was coming back may have been the hope from the FO but I'm not sure that was that likely or even the real rationale for the deal.

I understand that Gimenez was dealing with a high ankle sprain in 2025, if so then perhaps a return to health will lead to a better offensive season.

Gimenez doesn't hit the ball hard, and he chases quite a bit, which puts a pretty strong ceiling on how good a hitter he can be. That said, last year he actually had career-bests in contact rate, chase rate, line-drive rate and infield fly-ball percentage, which is a lot of positive indicators for a career-worst season with the bat. It's a little puzzling that didn't translate into better production last year. His exit velocity remained poor, as we all saw, but right around his previous performance, except his outlier 2022. I see Gimenez getting to about league-average with the bat.

Even with the low exit velocity, he's quite capable of hitting 12-15 HR. That's not a huge drop from Bichette.

His peripherals don't seem to differ much from bad years to good year.

He's the 8th or 9th hitter, so he's not expected to carry the team, just to make more plays than Bichette did.

Gimenez failed to advance the runner in a key PA in the 9th inning of the WBC final (Venezuela up 3-2, runner on second, none out).

Fun game. The US has had some home cooking on key balls and strikes but Venezuela is still somehow ahead.

Congrats to Venezuela on a great tournament. Palencia with a stellar ninth inning to K Schwarber, pop up Henderson, and K Anthony to preserve the 3-2 lead.

Berrios also out now for a while with a stress fracture in his elbow. Rotation depth is so important. I think April has enough off days where Jays don't even really need the fifth starter but having Berrios, Yesavage, and Bieber all not pitching yet is testing depth (not to mention Bloss and Francis).

It might not be the worst thing if Berrios misses some time in the early going. A lighter workload in 2026 might help him have a better season.

Neither Schneider nor Sanchez seem to want to really push Lukes for the starting job in LF. Schneider's been terrible, and Sanchez has been little better - lots of swing-and-miss, and when he's hit it hard, it's mostly been on the ground. Meanwhile, Lukes keeps doing solid-if-unspectacular work.

I'd like to see what Sanchez can do, but I'm pretty skeptical that Schneider is useful at the moment.

I just don't think spring numbers mean anything. I can see a trade though because roster isn't optimized very well. Jimenez, Lukes, and Schenider look to be going for two spots. Lukes best bet of them but why would a team carry 4 LH Ofers especially in a division filled with lefties. Jimenez can't be optioned so they'd lose him for nothing and he's a real backup infielder which fits the roster well. Schenider is a versatile and good player but doesn't really fit the vs LHP role the Jays seem to want him in. Most likely is Lukes and Schenider make team but I think that makes roster a little imbalanced.

Catching set, no surprise
optioned C Brandon Valenzuela to Buffalo

A couplr of names that were important a couple years ago
released 3B Damiano Palmegiani, RHP Dahian Santos, C Nicolas Deschamps, CF Jacob Wetzel, RHP Bo Bonds

Didn't notice how far Damiano Palmegiani had fallen - at 23 he had a really good year getting to AA/AAA hitting a solid 255/364/478 and maybe sneaking into the picture but a 710 OPS in '24 and 539 last year in just 64 games ended his time here.

Dahian Santos a bit of a surprise - bad ERA at 5.55 last year but 12.1 K/9 vs 6.8 BB/9 suggesting he has a live arm but wild. Maybe they just felt he'd never get the hang of it as his BB/9 climbed every year as a pro.

Kirk, Heineman, Valenzuela is a very nice C depth chart for 2026.

As a diversion from ST, here is a Bananas catch from the Savannah Bananas.

Feels like today's lineup might be the regular vs RHP one. Don't love Varsho at #2 but Jays don't have a good LH #2 hitter so it's him or Barger I guess.

Spring numbers can tell you if a AAA player is ready for MLB.
That's all they have to decide on Bastardo and Miles.

Spring numbers can also tell you if a player is still looking for his timing.
Schneider has looked like it would be better if he was sent to AAA to heat up rather than try to find it from the bench.

With Leo Jimenez. He seems to have followed the Richard Urena track.
They only lose him to waivers if he has no trade value.
Will his value increase if he's on team for a few weeks?
Probably not. They can roll the dice if they don't need the 40 roster spot for somebody else.
I guess that only happens once someone gets off the 60IL.
Or if they want to try picking other guys on waivers, but they are are picking at the end of the line.

Eloy finally played 1B yesterday. That doesn't seem to be a real option.
They were able to fit Ty France on the roster last year because they didn't have Jesus Sanchez.

As for a trade, I think Sanchez was it. I don't think they'll change the team as they arrive in Toronto.

From David’s. “Blue Jays say they are creating a Hall of Excellence on 100 level concourse behind right field, replacing the current Level of Excellence at mid-season.

Buck Martinez will be inducted to the Blue Jays' new hall on Aug. 29 and others will be added over the next five seasons.”

Leo Jimenez has had very solid numbers through the majors and certainly wasn't overmatched in 2024. I think he's a good fit as a backup, and he may yet improve.

I do still think the outfield is ripe for a trade. The FO doesn't acquire Sanchez on his salary unless they intend him to play most of the time, and I agree Spring numbers aren't going to change that, especially for someone like Sanchez who has a pretty consistent offensive track-record. But Lukes is basically an average everyday player, and he can cover Centre without embarrassing himself. He might well be better than Sanchez, but I think it's pretty clear he's getting squeezed out, and he's the most likely candidate for a trade, imho. He could also be optioned, but I think that's a terrible look for the Jays. If Lukes (or Straw) is traded, then I'd look for Eloy to make the team over Schneider as Sanchez's platoon partner.

Given Spencer Miles is a rule 5 pick and would need to stay int he majors all year or be offered back for $50k, I wouldn't be shocked if the Jays make a deal with the Giants so they can keep him. The Giants have RH batters in LF and CF who are projected at 1.8 and 2.0 fWAR respectively. So not great. Their projected bench is 100% RH as well. Lukes could fit in nicely there. Lukes to SF, Jays keep Miles. Seems a logical trade to me that helps both teams.

Ponce's splitter getting rave reviews.

I'd be shocked if Eloy makes team. He's a DH-only who hasn't been good since 2022. Definition of a guy you need to earn a roster spot and being pretty good in spring isn't enough. Really hope Bastardo makes the team. He looks good and end of Jays bullpen now arr just some pretty replaceable guys.

Ponce did throw a few good splitters today (it’s being called a split change whatever that is). That was promising but in his previous starts the pitch was borderline unusable as he could neither throw it near the plate nor get good movement on it. It’s a bit hard to judge from today as Ponce was able to throw his four seam FB by the Yankees AAAA lineup today at will. Having said that, I actually thought Ponce’s cutter looked a bit better today too. All in all, it was the best start for Ponce’s secondaries.

So now it's Yesavage. Not really surprising because he was only gonna be good for 2-3 innings at best by the time his turn would come up. It was either gonna be this or a piggyback.
This might be one of those "phantom injury" situations where there maybe was a tweak a month ago but mainly it's just getting more time to build him up. It remains true, though, that if you get to a day when no one is hurt they're going to lose someone.

You can open with the obvious 5 starters and the obvious 4 locks in the bullpen (Hoff, Rogers, Little and Varland) and then you add in out-of-options Nance (the beat guys say they really don't want to lose him) and that leaves 3 spots. Fisher and Fluharty, who both have options (as do Little and Varland but that ain't happening) and you have room, for the moment, to try and hang on to Bastardo. Even at this you still lose Miles (or work out a trade) and the buzz is Seabold is looking better than ever with more velo but even though John said they need some length - are they gonna let the young guy go in order to add a journeyman? They might but it would be pretty surprising.

But the main thing is, there are 4 guys on the IL. You can send down Fisher and Fluharty, much as they don't deserve it, but then - you're going to lose either Nance or Bastardo. In theory Yesavage could go down for a turn or two but everything else would have to be going really well. I know these things tend to work out but on pure math - if everyone's healthy you're gonna lose two guys you want to keep.

I think Pounce throws a kick change, which is a spiked circle change.

A splitter is a type of change up. The hard version is a split fastball.

In theory, Tyler Rogers give you a lot of innings in the pen

I'm reading its shoulder impingement for Yesavage. That's tough news and likely to be of the 2-4 months variety of missed time (without surgery) vs missing the entire season with surgery.

Gausman
Cease
Scherzer
Ponce
Lauer

Hope Bieber is back soon.

Ponce is an interesting one - seems if his split change/splitter is on he is great, if not he will be pounded. So the big question is will it mostly be on or not come opening day? Guess we'll find out. He and Lauer will be fighting hard from day one to prove they deserve their slots as Gausman-Cease are locks if healthy and Scherzer is a near lock. So as Bieber, Berrios, and Yesavage return (assuming they recover) those 2 are most in danger of losing their spots. Still, This does show why Atkins kept grabbing starters every chance he had it seemed.

For long relief, Miles has averaged a touch over an inning a game (8 2/3 in 6 G), Bastardo similar (7 in 6 games) so both are probably/should be stretched out now to cover 2+ innings if needed. Chase Lee is just shy of an inning a game (4 2/3 in 5 G). Nance is at 5 1/3 in 5 G, Fluharty 5 2/3 in 5 G, Fisher 5 2/3 in 6 G. So for longer games Miles is the most obviously being stretched out, but I'd still be surprised if the Jays keep him and Bastardo on the roster - although in April both could be useful if they can eat 2+ innings each time used. Last year Nance was at 31 2/3 IP in 30 G twice going 2 IP but giving up 3 runs in one of those 2 games (it was a blowout, like many of his games). Varland used to be a starter and was well over an inning a game in '24 so he could cover 2+ innings when needed one would think. Fisher was over an inning a game at every stop in the minors so odds are also he could do 2+ when called upon. So with those options I'm not too worried about long relief until Lauer can go back to the pen (if he does go back).

Nah, at this point the pen questions are spots 6-8 - 3 open slots for a lot of guys. 2 rule 5 picks who both have looked good at times, Nance who is out of options, and Fisher & Fluharty who were important parts of last years pen but both have options thus can be sent down to allow the Jays to keep others.

Plus the LF question - do you keep 6 OF on the roster or go with 5 and keep Leo Jimenez (out of options)? Sanchez is out of options so has to be kept up or lost potentially. Schneider hasn't hit in spring but had a 119 OPS+ last year. Lukes has been OK, his usual solid self but as a LH bat with good but not 'wow' defense it might be hard to keep him and Sanchez. Straw of course is Varsho's caddy and will be kept. So given the option situation Lukes or Schneider is most likely to go down and since Lukes bats from the same side as Sanchez I expect him to go down and Schneider kept up. Thus a bench of Schneider-Straw-Leo Jimenez-Heineman with Sanchez the most common guy in LF.

Speaking of LF, I wonder if John will line up Vlad's DH days (and Kaz's) with opposition LHSP and give Springer those few days in LF?

Only 3 games left. Season start in Toronto in 7 days.

Jonathon Mayo had a couple of minor league titbits in his report today.

Jojo Parker will likely start in Dunedin with Juan Sanchez in the FCL.

Blaine Bullard has been the camp standout, he has added muscle to go with his speed.

Brandon Barriera is looking good and they are dangling Vancouver in front of him. Barriera has never pitched above Dunedin yet.

Jake Cook has a hamstring injury and will miss six weeks.

03/20/26 Buffalo Bisons placed RHP Nic Enright on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/26 Buffalo Bisons placed RHP Jake Bloss on the 60-day injured list.
03/19/26 Buffalo Bisons placed RHP Josh Winckowski on the 60-day injured list.
03/19/26 Buffalo Bisons placed LHP Trenton Wallace on the 60-day injured list.
03/19/26 New Hampshire Fisher Cats placed RHP Ryan Watson on the 60-day injured list.
03/19/26 Vancouver Canadians placed LHP Connor O'Halloran on the 60-day injured list.
03/19/26 Vancouver Canadians placed OF Sam Shaw on the 60-day injured list.
03/19/26 Dunedin Blue Jays placed LF Jean Joseph on the 60-day injured list.
03/19/26 FCL Blue Jays placed LHP Jared Spencer on the 60-day injured list.

03/18/26 New Hampshire Fisher Cats placed RHP Chay Yeager on the full-season injured list.

Josh Kasevich continues to sting the ball.  Facing Simeon Woods Richardson, he had three hard hit line-drives in three PAs with two doubles to show for it.  

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

Scherzer is going to stay in Florida after spring ends and make one more spring start in a minor league game (aiming for 6 innings, 90 pitches).

Should set him up to make 4th or 5th #BlueJays start this year

Kasevich is promising - he might be able to cover whenever an IF injury happens which is important to have. With all his options still there since he wasn't on the 40 man yet he can cover for 27-29 before he needs to stick, unless he comes up this year at some point. Hopefully his rep for strong defense is right.

So best guess on the roster:

Position players (13): Kirk, Heineman, Vlad, Gimenez, Clement, Okamoto, Sanchez, Varsho, Barger, Springer, Lukes, Schneider, Straw.

IL: Santander

Pitchers (12): Gausman, Cease, Scherzer, Ponce, Lauer, Hoffman, Rogers, Varland, Little, Fluharty, Fisher, Nance.

Options for the last bullpen spot (1): Bastardo, Miles, Seabold

IL: Bieber, Berrios, Yesavage, Garcia

With Lauer now in the rotation, the last bullpen spot is probably best used on a long man. I doubt they'd trust Bastardo or Miles in that role, so Seabold may have a shot. They'll run into an issue when Garcia gets back and someone has to be dropped but pitchers are so volatile that you can't assume everyone will stay healthy.

I think Leo Jimenez is probably gone at this point. Maybe he'll be able to sneak through waivers, but probably not. He really needed a big spring and he didn't have one.

I disagree SK in NJ - I see Lukes off (has options) and Jimenez here. Plus Bastardo making the team (needs 90 days to be allowed to be sent down without losing him) while they try to find a way to negotiate with SF to keep Miles. Can't see Seabold making the team out of spring.

I agree with SK as that is likely opening day roster. I could see a trade (of either Jimenez or Lukes) but barring that, this is what I expect at least until other guys get released by teams and maybe Jays take a chance on someone there. Bastardo has control issues but will be annoyed if Jays lose him to keep Fluharty/Nance. I also believe that Fisher's velocity seems significantly down this spring. Like 92-93 vs 95-96 which is something to watch.

Against all logic, they picked Lovelady and Barnes last year, so they could add Seabold to lose a bunch of games. He pitched 12 innings last year and none the year before.

I’m generally with SK and Glevin. Although I don’t view Fluharty and Nance as the same fungible arm. But for a mid year blip, Fluharty was genuinely good last year. It also ignores the team’s need for LHP in the pen. I think the final decision will come down to the last bullpen spot. I think that will come down to Bastardo v Nance. I’d be surprised if Nance didn’t stick.

Fluharty WAS good last year, I just don't trust soft-tossing relievers to have prolonged success. It's possible of course, but I wouldn't expect it to continue.

RIP Rodger Brulotte. I had the chance to listen to him when watching some games with my mom last summer.

Mitch Bannon talked about the Jays need for length out of the pen with Lauer in the rotation, and said "they'll likely carry someone like Lazaro Estrada or Chase Lee at the back of the relief group". Haven't heard those names much as possible options, but Estrada would probably make sense as a mop up type out of the pen, and he's already on the 40 man roster with options remaining (so easy to send down when Garcia gets back). If they are bullish on Bastardo being a long-term piece then he's another mop up option if they feel he can get 6 to 9 outs when necessary, but a team in the Jays position carrying a Rule 5 guy would be a little surprising.

I'm with the consensus that sees Lukes on the roster and Jimenez off. I think the emergence of Kasevich this spring has added comfort to the idea of potentially losing Jimenez.

I could easily see a scenario in Bastardo making it in order to keep his rights, but I think the Jays are in a position where they'll want to bring their best options north and he will likely be on the outside looking in. I think they'll try to keep Miles through a trade, as well, if they can work something out.

Seabold is interesting, as he was a complete afterthought of a minor league signing, but his strikeout numbers this spring have been something. I don't think it gets him on the team, but if he keeps it up in Triple-A, he'll get his chance before too long.

My main problem with the roster is having 6 OFs - that is crazy as there is no way all get enough playing time to justify being on the roster. You could do a couple of platoons, maybe Sanchez/Schneider in LF, Varsho/Straw in CF, but Barger/Lukes doesn't work in RF - could do it with Barger going to 3B and Okamoto to 1B, Vlad to DH, Springer gets the day off vs some RHP - some mix of that to get Barger, Okamoto, Vlad, and Springer days off - but generally those guys only need 1 or 2 days off a month. Again, not really much value for Lukes there.

Whereas Jimenez backs up SS/2B allowing the Jays to sit Gimenez vs most LHP (either play Clement or Jimenez at SS those days, the other at 2B). They could use Schneider at 2B those days instead, but then you'd need to play 2 of Sanchez/Varsho/Barger against LHP with Straw being in there for whoever gets that day off.

With the way the roster is I see far more value having Jimenez here than Lukes or Sanchez - keep one of the two, trade the other if possible to keep one of the rule 5 guys in the minors or to get another prospect who might help late in the season. Of course, keeping Lukes (or Schneider) in AAA as backup is an option as both have options left (none for Sanchez, Straw, and Jimenez). The Jays could try sending Straw down and see if anyone wants to eat his salary but I'd be very surprised if they did that.

Feels like the opening day lineup today.

June I agree with your point about lineup imbalance. It was what made the deal for Sanchez somewhat odd (the team really didn’t need another LHH OF who really can’t play CF). However, a few things to note. It isn’t actually clear that Sanchez is a better player than Lukes. Neither Barger nor Lukes have enough PA’s to feel comfortable knowing exactly what they are. I’d guess that there is a longer term competition between Barger, Lukes and Sanchez for two roster spots. I’m guessing they don’t want to make that call right now and in the interim Barger and Schneider can give you additional infield flexibility. For Jimenez’s sake I actually hope he goes somewhere else to get his chance.

Actually, now that I think a bit more it is even worse - 7 OF when you include Springer. Total insanity - more than 2 per position in the OF with the backup IF being Schneider & Barger - two guys who play in the OF normally. Yeah, you can get away with it, but Jimenez makes so much sense in so many ways - can play SS/2B (just 1 inning at 3B way back in 2019) and bats right thus can be mixed into the IF to give Gimenez days off vs LHP. In the majors Jimenez has a 724 OPS vs LHP, 589 vs RHP. That could mix in well as Gimenez is 708 vs RHP, 672 vs LHP lifetime, 631/495 last year. Whereas a 7th OF is redundant no matter how you cut it.

Keegan Matheson@KeeganMatheson

More #BlueJays roster news:

Lazaro Estrada has been optioned to AAA and Connor Seabold, who had an out, has been granted his release and is now a free agent.

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

Would seem like Toronto's final bullpen spot is down to Chase Lee or one of the Rule 5 picks (Bastardo, Miles), though some of the optioned pitchers could, technically, still be brought back on the roster.

I can see the logic with any of those 3. Lee was fairly good for Detroit last year and has a very different look (sidearm) than most which might work well (Rogers is submarine). Imagine the effect on a hitter of Yesavage, Lee, Rogers, Hoffman - they'd have no idea where to look for the ball. High, mid, low, 3/4.

My bet right now is the Jays are trying to make deals with SF and Boston to keep Bastardo and Miles but in AAA instead of the majors. Sadly I doubt Boston will make a deal, thus Bastardo up for 90 days (or mystery injury, then back up for a few more days to fill up the 90) if the Jays want to keep him. SF might be more open to a deal. That also suggests Nance is making it which is a mild surprise to me as he is a bit old at 35 and was mostly good in blowouts, sucked in the playoffs (1 1/3 IP 5 H 2 R/ER 1 int BB, 0 K) while being used in big spread situations (up 11 once - allowed all 3 inherited to score plus 2 of his own, down 3 the other time).

It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few days as they set the roster. SF could use a LH OF (4 RH bats on bench, LH in RF but RH in CF/LF) so a match should be possible to keep Miles at least.

Parker and Sanchez both with impressive abs today. Looking forward to watching them this season. Think both have a chance to be special.

That also suggests Nance is making it which is a mild surprise to me

And yet, he was generally excellent overall with a fantastic 4.57 SO/BB ratio and kept the ball in the park. That said they didn't seem keen to use him in high leverage. The big difference over what he has done previously is that his walk rate was way down (2.0 BB/9) which one might suspect isn't sustainable. (He's also throwing more sliders which probably is sustainable.)In any case, he's got a leg up over other fringy pitchers in that he has no options: use him or lose him.

For similar roster management reasons, Bastardo is far more likely to make than Miles because you can eventually send Bastardo down at the business end of the season.

In the end, I think Braydon Fisher is likely to be spending a few days this year cooling his heels with a Pina Colada down in Buffalo, simply because he is the proud owner of options, and isn't left handed.

Francys Romero@francysromeroFR

Yariel Rodríguez has been informed that he did not make the Toronto Blue Jays Opening Day roster and will begin the 2026 season in Triple-A Buffalo, per source.

Mercy rule.

Shi Davidi@ShiDavidi

John Schneider says Yariel Rodriguez, Jorge Alcala and Rule 5 pick Angel Bastardo have been informed they did not make the team. Blue Jays still finalizing other decisions.

So, Miles as the long man?
It seems he will get squeezed out eventually not matter how well or poorly he does.

Should we have a 2026 predictions thread?

I am very excited with the start of the new season. My predictions/expectations are: 1) The Jays will compete but not run away early domination. 2) We will have a strong 2nd half. So some pain checking the standings daily.

I am prepared for a good/happy/pleasant minor league season. The bad will be Tiedemann having injury issues. So basically 1 guy. There should be very many other minor league players doing well and very well. Like for example Nimmala, great if he dominates/survives AA or bad if he struggles/cant graduate Vancouver. Other examples are Hechavarria (getting to AAA) which is positive. And G Stanifer & F Perez.

After listening to Wilner's podcast (he was talking about how you can't trust the rule 5's to get the outs in a blowout even) I see the point of Nance - you need someone who can finish those games off without using the high leverage guys outside of times they need work of course. Nance proved he can do that, just don't put him in high pressure. There is value there.

I'd have been shocked if Yariel made the team opening day - he'll be up at some point I suspect, but not right now. Jorge Alcala likewise was a 'duh', but Angel Bastardo I was expecting to make it after the Jays rehabbed him for a year and only needed to keep him for 90 days. I suspect someone else will claim him and keep him up (Colorado or any of the other teams that are fighting for that top draft pick in 2027). Miles lands in that same area.

So who is left for the pen? Locks: Hoffman-Rogers-Varland
Near Locks: Little-Fisher-Nance
Fight for 2 slots: Fluharty-Miles-Lee (Lee and Fluharty have options as do Fisher, Varland, and Little).

The pen is fun to watch right now, but hard to know who they'll pick. I'd bet on Fluharty and Lee - never got why they drafted Miles (Rule 5 pick when you plan to contend is a risky thing, but it did work in '85 with 2 rule 5's and they won 99 games but that was a very different era with 5 man pens and a loooong bench).

Honestly one of the big throughlines for this minor league season is pitcher injury recovery. Consider:

Ricky Tiedemann: so far a minor setback, still need some real success
Jake Bloss: should be in game action again sometime mid-season
Chris McElvain: fringy at best but coming back from surgery
Carson Pierce: seldom mentioned but looked quite good (statistically) at Vancouver in '24
Brandon Barriera: apparently impressing enough in camp that they are discussing the idea ov moving him up to Vancouver (my guess is they wait out the weather like the did with Yesavage and Stanifer)
Landon Moroudis: I've seen no reporting on his progress but he had real talent
Nolan Perry: under the radar (other than Doug Fox who regularly mentions him) but on a similar recovery schedule to Pierce and should be in games early on.

Some of those guys are gonna blossom.

In a year if (big if) guys stay mostly healthy the Jays could be having a lot of quality pitchers in the system. Ideally by seasons end we see Tiedemann and Bloss fighting to be in the majors and seen as ready but needing spots that don't exist. Stanifer, Perez, and Macko also fighting to be there. 2027 could see a really strong ML and AAA rotation which would be ideal with more working their way through. Heard on "At the Letters" podcast that Valenzuela really impressed in spring and might be ready to be the backup to Kirk and maybe a 1B option (IE: good enough for everyday but not good enough to replace Kirk) which would be nice. Nimmala was solid and clearly is a SS of the near future (91 wRC+ in spring) while Josh Kasevich showed he is ready to be a backup, or even an everyday guy in the majors with his 130 wRC+ in spring (I'd like to see him duplicate that in AAA first).

Lots of promise for 2026 and beyond I'd say. Ah, spring, the eternal optimist's favorite time.

to me, the ideal reasonable aspiration for Kasavich is Ernie Clement 2.0 ... but taking less time to hit his stride.

Manager John Schneider extended for two years.

Ross Atkins extended for five years.

I wouldn't have given Atkins five years, three maybe but five is too long for me.

Atkins had a year to go so he is extended through 2031, so six more years for your pleasure.

It looks like it's coming down to Miles or Lee for that last spot. I take June's point Fluharty isn't confirmed, but I don't see him off, especially with Lauer in the rotation. I imagine he may ride the Buffalo shuttle at some point this year as they juggle numbers.

I suspect they are trying to keep Miles one way or another, but, as I said above, it's a tall ask for a contending team to carry a Rule 5 guy all year. Sometimes teams carry Rule 5 guys for a couple of weeks and then cut them if they immediately show they may not be ready.

I also don't think it's fair to say Nance sucks in close games based off a couple of not great playoff appearances.

I don't want him pitching those innings often, as he's clearly low on the depth chart for a reason, but last year he had 54 plate appearances where the game was within two runs and he allowed ten hits and didn't walk a single batter. In medium or high leverage situations, he allowed eight singles in 31 plate appearances with no walks.

I wouldn't be surprised if he can't sustain last year's success and is off the roster at some point, but if he's the same guy he posted a 1.87 FIP last year, he shouldn't be a disaster in those situations.

I agree the deal with Atkins is too long, but also, I'm not surprised. Shapiro clearly likes working with him.

I'm a bit surprised Schneider didn't get a longer deal. If not the same length as Atkins, at least three years.

Arden Zwelling@ArdenZwelling

Competition for Blue Jays final bullpen spot has come down to Chase Lee and Spencer Miles

Final bench spot will be one of Davis Schneider or Leo Jimenez

All will travel to Toronto Monday night. Expect club to make final decisions by Wednesday afternoon

What happens between now and Wednesday that keep them from making their decisions now?

Trade talks with other GMs?

I imagine it's that and/or someone is dealing with a sore something and they are debating whether it necessitates an IL stint.

The most obvious thought is a potential deal with San Francisco to keep Miles, as they clearly like him and Lee, or shopping Jimenez, but there are lots of possibilities.

They may also not want to say that Lee or Miles made the team, for example, in case they grab someone who was waived by another team and have to retract that.

If the Jays can't acquire Miles rights from the giants then I'd prefer the Jays keep Miles and option Lee which give them the option to reverse the decision if Miles doesn't do well rather than lose Miles and then Lee falters.

I believe there is an intra squad game today. Lee might be scheduled to pitch in that, maybe Miles too.

My guess is that they are pursuing some trades like if they can get something for Jimenez and maybe make a trade for Miles so they can option him. Schenider not making the team makes zero sense to me because he is kind of a proven major league player of some sort now and spring really doesn't mean much. Lukes deserved to make the team but once Jays traded for Sanchez, keeping both of them is extremely inefficient. Yes Jays can mix and match vs RHP depending on matchup but that's relatively minor benefit and having four LH OF with a full-time DH just doesn't make any sense. Add to that that your only RH OF right now is one of the worst hitters in baseball, the lineup is just balanced at all. Yes, I know Jays will rotate guys in and out to keep them healthy but you don't need 4 LH Ofers to do that. And honestly that worries me more anyway. I want Barger and Okamoto to get everyday abs and having Lukes and Sanchez on the roster likely means Schenider is going to sit those guys to make sure Lukes and Sanchez both get playing time. For me, it's a continuing theme of Atkins where the a) the end of the roster doesn't really make sense b) the team is poorly setup to platoon for a manager who is a push-button platoon guy.

Ken Rosenthal has an article at the Athletic today all about Max Scherzer. It seems that Max found a solution to his chronic sore thumb....playing piano. I am sure we will hear more about this during the season.

Schneider hasn't found his swing yet.
Same thing happened last year.
A few weeks of regular playing times makes a ton of sense.
Ultimately, he's going to be on the team, so making the trip to Toronto anyway also makes sense.

Neither Lukes nor Schneider has splits, so it doesn't really matters.

The other option is that they're waiting at the last moment to try to pass Jimenez through waivers.
That makes less sense.

Any solution for my chronic sore knee?

The Schneider vs Jimenez idea is crazy to me. Lukes/Sanchez is the redundancy. Both are LH OF who are mostly LF/RF but can play CF when needed. 98 OPS+ lifetime for Sanchez, 100 for Lukes. $6.8 mil for Sanchez, ML minimum for Lukes. I didn't get why they traded for Sanchez, but clearly the Jays must like him so why keep him and Lukes on the roster? Makes zero sense. Going with 7 OF's also makes zero sense - where would you play them? How would you get them all playing time? Unless there is some mixture of types of pitchers Sanchez flops agaist that Lukes thrives against I just don't get it.

Lifetime Sanchez SUCKS vs LHP - 520 OPS (378 PA) vs 774 against RHP (1681 PA). Lukes is 751 RHP/629 LHP. vs Power/Neutral/Finesse Lukes is 589/742/808 vs Sanchez 614/714/800. vs Fly ball/Neutral/Ground Ball Lukes: 925 (206 PA)/597/683 Sanchez: 754/719/702 - I don't see a clear mix of strength for one=weakness of other there. Maybe Lukes vs fly ballers, Sanchez all others? Maybe.

Schneider: vs RHP/LHP is 743/725 pretty much neutral which is a massive improvement over the other 2 vs LHP. P/N/F is 683/763/739 - stronger vs power than either Lukes or Sanchez. F/N/G: 871/658/677 - behind Lukes vs Fly but damn high there too. I see more paths to playing time for Schneider than Lukes if you are using Sanchez as the default.

And of course in all of this we are ignoring Straw as he is purely a defensive wiz who covers when needed out there. His bat is seen as a liability but if you get lucky he will be a 90 or higher OPS+ thus good enough for everyday play but no chance of that unless Varsho is hurt (please no). Also Springer will DH 90% of the time, but once in awhile will go to the OF just because.

I just don't get how the Jays can debate a 3 headed monster in LF with Sanchez/Lukes/Schneider - it would be hard to make work, Schneider vs all LHP, Sanchez vs most RHP, Lukes vs vs fly ball RHP? Seems very weird to go with but might work. I'd rather have Jimenez around to play vs LHP and Gimenez' horrid 495 OPS last year vs LHP not being seen. Maybe they see Schneider as mostly being a 2B backup and when used you shift Clement to SS (unless vs a RHP in which case you give Clement a day off). Seems odd to me, but that could be the plan. Then Lukes/Sanchez mix/match in LF as best as possible. Not a fan, but maybe it can work. We all know the Jays braintrust knows more than I do.

If Lukes was going to make the roster, then I'm not sure what the point of trading for Sanchez was, but seemed fairly clear with Jimenez struggling in the Spring that this was going to be the outcome. I doubt Jimenez is making the team over Schneider, unless the plan is to platoon Sanchez/Lukes and Straw, which makes no sense given Straw shouldn't have a bat in his hand unless it's an emergency.

My guess is they are holding off until rosters around the league are set and then they'll try to sneak Jimenez through.

The felicitously named Cade Winquest pitched today in a Yankees loss. Looks like he's still searching for his first spring training W.

If they take Schneider north over Jimenez, which I am decently sure they will, I think the plan is clearly for him to get some infield time. I also don't think it would be a permanent solution, as once an outfielder hit the IL, I suspect we'll see Kasevich (or Jimenez if he hangs around).

Seabold just got a split contract with Detroit and has made their opening day roster, which explains his release more clearly.

Big payrolls sure are good for GM retention:)

Actually it appears there was no extension on the horizon last year until franchise player was signed long term and the team went to the World Series. Seems hard work and results help. :)

I think Nigel is highlighting the correlation between team spending on player payroll and W-L records. In general, a team spending more on player payroll leads to more wins.

This is not to say that being an effective GM doesn't also make a difference.

For proof high payroll doesn't always work look to the Jays of '97/98 (Clemens years), the Angels every year but 2002, Yankees of the 80's, etc. It helps, but is no guarantee.

I think Atkins has been fine and should be extended based on last year but I don't think he's exceptional or anything but then again, I think pretty much all GMs are now good with little difference between them. The guy who I now think is doing a great job is Shapiro for a few reasons 1) Convincing ownership to invest in the team has been single biggest reason for Jays success 2) Building a culture that players love and speak about openly. 3) Renovations in Rogers Centre and Dunedin.

I think my statement is just factual. Over the long run very little matters in MLB (and other non cap sports leagues) with regard to winning other than running a large payroll. Nothing correlates to getting fired in pro sports to a higher degree than losing.

I wasn't throwing shade at the FO. My views on the FO haven't changed over the years (whether in the good times or bad - of which there have been both for this FO). I think they are ok - you can do better but you can do much worse. In my view, their strengths and weaknesses are fairly evident after this much time on the job.

I don't see the issue with acquiring Sanchez while having Lukes around. The Jays gave a full season's worth of at bats (760) to Straw, Wagner, Roden, Clase, and Loperfido last year, so improving the first option when injury strikes makes quite a bit of sense.

Sanchez is a career .253/.324/.450 hitter vs. RHP. Adding him means they don't need to auto-start Okamoto agsint righties, and can instead roll with Barger at the hot corner and a Sanchez/Varsho/Lukes outfield.

Nigel,

The question for me is what is your point? What you are saying is opinion not a fact, first of all. There's history of factual results showing that winning does not correlate to bigger spending as the main determining factor. If that were the case then there wouldn't be SO MANY examples of teams winning with lesser payrolls.

Second, what is the point of the opinion. It's not exactly a hot take to say "a higher payroll helps a GM keep their job," and "they have their strengths and weaknesses." So? You can apply these statements to literally anything... you say you aren't throwing shade but then why didn't you write "Big payrolls sure are good for coach retention:)" instead of "GM retention?"

Seems a bit odd to me.

I remain sceptical that Jimenez will be cast loose, but a day or so will show whether I'm right or not. The Jays don't have much middle infield depth, Jimenez is a good fit on the roster, and he's been a promising prospect. Not a good spring for him, but I don't think that should move the needle much.

How much do you gain by keeping Jimenez while Kasevich is in AAA? How much do Juan Sanchez and Parker change the calculus for the future of the INF? I'd prefer they sent Lukes down and kept Schneider and an extra pitcher.

The way it is I think they will have Barger and Schneider as secondary INF.

Gemini offers a quick summary of research on the payroll/winning correlation:

"There is a positive, albeit imperfect, correlation between MLB payroll and winning, with higher-spending teams generally experiencing higher win rates and greater playoff success. While exceptions exist, nearly all World Series champions since 2000 have had top-half payrolls, with an average ranking of eighth, reinforcing that money provides a significant, though not guaranteed, competitive advantage"

"Key Takeaway: While money doesn't guarantee a title, having a high payroll makes it significantly easier to sustain success and compete in the postseason"

Yeah that doesn't really change the idea which I think is incorrect that higher payroll = winning. The implication is what is important and the implication is that you can buy trophies and playoff success.

This idea is one where someone can come in, spend a lot of money and instantly turn a team into a winner. If you are a regular team and you draft incredibly well, culture incredibly well and coach incredibly well, well then 6 years later if you retain your players at market value then your salary will balloon and you will have a higher payroll. At this point Gemini can summarize that a higher payroll leads to more success but it completely leaves out everything (besides the money) that even allowed the team to get to a higher payroll. Blue Jays vs Mets and Angels is kind of a perfect example.

The Dodgers are a Black Swan and I would argue that it's their culture, history and consistency that leads to winning and not their higher payroll. Their higher payroll is the result of everything else not an exception that somehow miraculously leads to a winner. (see Mets, New York).

I think it is a bit like a significant advantage. It is like if you are a low payroll team you are starting an inning with the bases empty. If you are a high payroll team you are starting an inning with the runner on second. Sometimes the bases empty team scores and the runner on second doesn't. But it is much easier for the runner on second team to score.

And if you are equally skilled in your drafting, development, coaching, etc. then having the extra payroll will be a huge advantage over the same skilled team without the payroll.

In the past two decades, the top five payroll teams in a season have averaged 89 wins and the bottom five payroll teams in that year have averaged 74. But that's just opinion.

If you want to be less abstract about it, consider that the Blue Jays have made it to the World Series three times in their history. Each time, they had the highest, or among the highest, team payrolls in the game.

Or consider: how would you currently feel about the Blue Jays’ postseason chances in 2026 had payroll constraints prevented them from signing Cease, Ponce, Rogers, Okamoto, and Scherzer?

"Over the long run very little matters in MLB (and other non cap sports leagues) with regard to winning other than running a large payroll."

-----> This is an opinion.

"In the past two decades, the top five payroll teams in a season have averaged 89 wins and the bottom five payroll teams in that year have averaged 74. But that's just opinion."
-----> This is a fact.

I think we can all simply agree that spending more money doesn't equate to "better" without everything else that goes into it (research, development, coaching, drafting, investing, etc). My disagreement is with the notion and statements that not much matters to winning except for payroll. That's very simplistic and convenient. The real job to do is to go through the past two decades and look at each team that had top five payroll which led to 89 wins. Remove the bottom 5 teams since we aren't looking at payroll we are looking at top teams and if their success is from mostly higher payroll or not. I think you will see that there is a lot more to the teams that were winning and it can't be attributed mostly to money spent.

This is all the same "baseball is mathematics" funnel of pre-determined results that has infiltrated and now dictates most of the discourse of baseball. If it was payroll increase or bust in order to win then teams wouldn't be spending nearly as much as they do on non-payroll initiatives and investments.

"Or consider: how would you currently feel about the Blue Jays’ postseason chances in 2026 had payroll constraints prevented them from signing Cease, Ponce, Rogers, Okamoto, and Scherzer?"

I feel it's true that higher payroll helps them have those players but not in isolation. Okamoto signed here not because of the highest payroll flexibility but because of the recent run. Ponce signed here because of the pitching staff and opportunities with Pete Walker. Same with Cease. No, I don't think they would sign here for less than other places but I think that something beyond money was the determining factor for them to sign.

The payroll wouldn't be as high if the culture and team strength and coaching wasn't top of the league.

Let me ask you a question: "Or consider: how would you currently feel about the Blue Jays’ postseason chances in 2026 had player development, drafting, trade management and scouting prevented them from having Barger, Kirk, Varsho, Guerrero Jr, Clement, Yesavage, etc?

Just because payroll makes a team better, makes it easier to mask mistakes does not mean it equates to winning or reversing a bad run team's inevitable misfortune...

dalimon, I’m not sure others are making the argument you’re attributing to them. Sure, the Dodgers are the best front office in the game. But most MLB front offices, including the Blue Jays, are now pretty competent. The days of flipping a Vernon Wells albatross contract to a Tony Reagins GM for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera, or of Billy Beane unearthing a significant market inefficiency allowing a low payroll team to dominate, are pretty much over. In the current MLB landscape, money — an extra $50m to $150m or more — can confer a significant advantage on one team over another.

I'm not disagreeing with that idea that more money makes things easier, but that's not was Nigel was saying. It's the idea that more money means you win, period and everything else is secondary to this. It's too simplistic and I don't agree.. For every LAD, NYY, TOR and PHI you have CLE, DET, SEA. An extra 50 million is no more valuable to the NYM than a Paul Skenes to PIT or Tarik Skubal. Money does not mean winning. This year I expect BAL, TB, SEA, PIT and OAK to all perform better than teams spending far more like SD, HOU, PHI, ATL.

I think there's a want around the game because of top teams like the Dodgers and NYY who happen to be run very well and happen to have some of the best attractions to players and happen to have generational players in their prime all at once...that it makes an easy narrative to take away everything they are doing right or lucking out on that is not the result of having a big budget.

Money always has been an advantage. Even pre-free agency it would've (better facilities, better manager, GM, ability to sign 'bonus babies' before the draft, and signing guys after the draft started). However, smart >>> money - Atlanta drafted Chipper Jones instead of the consensus top player - Todd Van Poppel. Atlanta was cheap back then, the A's had money to burn. Worked out damn fine for Atlanta I'd say, and poorly for the A's. FYI: that draft the Jays took Steve Karsay who they'd flip for Rickey Henderson in '93 after giving up on Seattle accepting Karsay for Randy Johnson, just to have Seattle call minutes after the Henderson deal was agreed to accepting the deal. Go figure.

But back to money. The Rays despite having one of the lowest payrolls in the game have been in contention more often than not since 2008. The 10 years before that they were dead last in the East all but 1 season (peak of 70 wins) despite signing some big name vets here and there to try to look good - for example in 2000 they had a top 10 payroll (10th place) on opening day. So they used to spend, but haven't been in the top 20 since 2001, and 30th 7 times, never being over $100 mil on opening day (over it for CB 40 man 6 times, last 4 years in a row). So yes, it can be done, but it is damn hard and requires the club to be near perfect in everything. The Dodgers show what happens when you take that front office and give them an unlimited budget.

I feel there are lots of people around here still holding a grudge against the AA years for "payroll parameters", which is exactly what happens when you get a good core, but ownership doesn't back you up with $$ to address some obvious weaknesses. Imagine a better starter than Drew Hutchison, one good reliever to replace Loup/Tepera, a better LF than Revere, etc..

In my mind, it's not a direct implication that:
higher payroll ==> higher winning pct
but I do feel there's some support for
lower payroll ==> lower winning pct

I think also that:
higher payroll EFFICIENTLY SPENT ==> higher winning pct.

We've all seen a team of overpriced vets producing way below their contract value that goes nowhere. OTOH, I don't think you can draft/develop an entire team in 6 years either, starting from scratch.

End - Discussion, case-closed comment right there :)

The Jays ownership seem to want/practically demand a winning/competitive team (whatever their definition of that is). If that is the case and the reason is that is the best/safest way to generate highish revenue, then to achieve that, high payroll should/probably helps. Then what does their speeches say and what do their actions say? Each of us can then draw our own conclusions.

Also I agree with all the reasoning put forth by various Bauxites. Very well thought out.

Obviously a high payroll doesn't guarantee success and the Dodgers are an extremely well-run and progressive organization, but attributing their success to their history and culture and not mentioning their 8.35 billion TV deal and the fact it is protected from the standard revenue sharing arrangement for 25 years (through 2038) seems to be missing the forest for the trees, in my opinion.

I don't recall the Dodgers getting that big a sweetheart deal from MLB. Damn, that is very unfair to everyone else. That massive of a local TV deal and not having to share it like everyone else does is a big, big bonus for them. Of course, safe to say Rogers hides a ton of revenue from MLB to avoid needing to share it as well.

MLB really needs a new revenue sharing model which is based on market size/wealth and not on local revenue - creates bigger incentives for teams to be competitive as that leads to higher revenue without needing to share that windfall. If you fail to make your market work then you pay out more in revenue sharing than you'd like. Have it be that teams can reduce their market size by giving up rights/control over areas so then if a team wants to move it doesn't need to negotiate with whoever has the rights to that area if no one wants to claim it as it ups their revenue sharing costs too much vs revenue that area generates. Jays might give up rights to most of Canada outside of Southern Ontario then to avoid revenue sharing, thus opening those areas up for a team to move there (or do you think the Jays would be happy for the Rays to move to Montreal or Vancouver) or for others to market there (such as the Mariners out west, Boston in the east, Twins to MB/SK, etc.).

If I recall correctly, essentially, they save $66 million a year of the 25 year deal from what they should share under MLB's revenue sharing program, as they are assessed at fair market value and not the actual value of their TV deal.

That's $1.5 billion, give or take.

That doesn't guarantee anything, but I think that helps more than culture does.

Lots of DFAs rolling in today.

I haven't seen anyone of particular note yet. Richard Lovelady has made his second opening day roster in a row. Hopefully he lasts longer in New York than he did here.

Shi Davidi@ShiDavidi

Blue Jays have designated INF Leo Jimenez for assignment, per source.

Ben Nicholson-Smith@bnicholsonsmith

Rule 5 pick Spencer Miles made the Blue Jays' opening day roster, source tells me and
@shidavidi

Probably the right decisions. I think there's a decent chance that Jiminez will clear waivers and get outrighted to Buffalo, which is probably where he belongs at 24 years old with less than 400 AAA plate appearances. As for Miles, I'm glad they're giving him a shot - I'm not expecting him to last the entire season, but he's worth the 8th bullpen spot given the other options available.

Leo Jimenez has a good chance to pass through waivers. Light hitting shortstops are in plentiful supply.

Katie,

The culture (along with the other things I listed) is a reason why money isn't the only determining factor. Nobody has said that culture is the main factor only that money is not...

Hopefully Leo clears. Here's the bisons current position player roster with Leo added:

CF Clase 24
RF Schreck 25
LF Pinango 24
3B Lantigua 28
SS Kasevich 25
2B L.Jimenez 25
1B Tirotta 27
C Valenzuela 25
DH E.Jimenez 29

UT Mendoza 26
OF Perez 23
IF Rivera 25
C Stubbs 29

Surprisingly to me is that at the moment McAdoo is still on the fisher cats roster. I thought he earned a promotion already. Maybe if Leo gets claimed then McAdoo moves up.

Also rule 5 guy perez has to be on the AAA roster i think, even though he's done nothing to earn a spot at that level.

It does look like they'll be using the extra roster spots on pitchers, not hitters.

But maybe the roster isn't actually set yet.

Buffalo Bisons@BuffaloBisons

BIG BIRD ON THE BUMP!

Grant Rogers has been named our Opening Day starter ⚾️

Rogers name not on the Buffalo website roster, official one not out yet

The rosters are probably set within the organization, with maybe some fringe decisions to be made - but they are usually not publicly announced until that level's opening day, or the day before.

(I know this because every year I'm obsessively looking for the updates.

Given that there's no obvious incumbent 3B at AAA (other than org depth guys like Lantigua) I'd guess McAdoo has a solid chance, and also both Keyes and Coffey will likely head to AA and you run the risk of overcrowding the IF there (unless they think that McAdoo will spend most games in the outfield.

The main question for me is whether Arjun starts at AA

Aldo Gaxiola is someone I like. He has never really struggled with the bat but needs more power. I don't know how good his D is or if his arm is strong.

No idea why Jays would keep Lantigua. He's 28 and has been a below average hitter in AAA for two straight years. Mendoza is 26 and had a 127 WRC+ in AAA last year. Lantigua is 28 and had a 92 WRC+. Maybe Jays don't have a backup 2B or something but his AB's are better off going to someone with a better chance at contributing.

Were the last two Rule 5 draftees to stick the season with the Jays Elvis Luciano and Corey Thurman? Am I missing someone?

Interestingly, neither stuck around meaningfully after their Rule 5 season or ever appeared in the majors for another club.

I think they like lantigua because he can play every position in the field other than catcher.

But i agree he shouldn't be blocking a younger guy who has earned abs. But as a bench guy in aaa he makes sense.

2025: Giants RHP Spencer Miles
2024: Red Sox RHP Angel Bastardo
2018: Royals RHP Elvis Luciano
2016: Royals RHP Glenn Sparkman
2015: Giants RHP Joe Biagini

the rest
https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-all-time-rule-5-draft-picks

Ernie Clement with a nice article at the Players Tribune.

Came here to post that.

Wow first inning in the Mets Pirates game. O'Neil Cruz, playing CF, misjudges a fly ball with the bases loaded...three runs score. Next hitter hits a fly ball that Cruz loses in the sun, another run scores.

Skenes was pulled in the first inning with two outs and 37 pitches.

Bo had a sac fly in the inning.

I'll put my cards in for a strong season from the Jays : 93-69, but Boston wins the division.

Stepbacks from Gausman and Springer; a breakout for Barger, Varsho has a career-year at the plate but he's merely a good defender. And Scherzer is healthy and effective, though no longer elite - sub-4.00 ERA, 150+ innings.

Oh, and Bichette is mediocre in New York, below-average defensively at 3B and his offensive decline begins.