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Day 2 of the MLB Draft begins at 11:30 am Eastern Time this morning with rounds 4-20 on MLB.com. The Jays are picking 112th to start the day. You can follow the Jays draft selections right here.


Image from Dallas Baptist.

Round 4 - 112th overall. RHP Micah Bucknam, Dallas Baptist. Bats Right, Throws Right. 6-foot-1, 212 pounds. Born August 26, 2003. Slot Value $680,800.

MLB.com Scouting Report - One of the best Canadian prospects in the 2022 Draft, Bucknam turned down the Blue Jays as a 16th-rounder to attend Louisiana State. He worked just 16 innings in two seasons in Baton Rouge because of command issues, enjoying more success in two summers in the Cape Cod League before transferring to Dallas Baptist. He became the Patriots' No. 1 starter and has some of the best feel for spin in the college ranks. Bucknam's tight 85-88 mph slider can reach 91, features high spin rates and is a legitimate wipeout pitch, while his low-80s curveball has more depth and is nearly as effective. His fastball stands out more for its velocity, usually ranging from 92-96 mph, than its life or ability to miss bats. He achieves some fade with his upper-80s changeup, though it's too firm and he struggles to land it for strikes. Bucknam has a strong 6-foot-1 frame and has improved his control as a junior, though he still gets into trouble when he catches too much of the plate. To succeed as a starter at the next level, he'll have to improve his fastball command and refine his changeup. If not, he could thrive as a reliever who relies heavily on his breaking pitches. Video

Baseball America Scouting Report - Bucknam was born in New Zealand and grew up in Canada, where he became a well-known high school prospect and was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 16th round in 2021. He instead enrolled at LSU, where he made eight relief appearances in each of his first two seasons before transferring to Dallas Baptist for the 2025 season. A 6-foot-1, 210-pound righthander, Bucknam moved into a starting role with DBU and found success, going 6-2, 4.62 with a 29.4% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate. Bucknam works with a true four-pitch mix. His 93-94 mph four-seam fastball can touch 96 and now shows more carry with less run than earlier in his amateur career. He also throws a hard slider in the upper 80s, a slower, bigger curveball in the low 80s and an upper-80s changeup with plenty of armside fade. It’s a lively arsenal that produced plenty of whiffs both in and out of the zone. Both his slider and curveball generated miss rates above 45% in 2025. Bucknam’s control is generally solid, and he has shortened his arm path since his freshman year, though evaluators still have concerns about whether his command and feel for his secondaries will ultimately push him to a relief role. His improvements in 2025 should at least give him a better chance to stick on a starter track.

Twitter Reaction

@baseballcanada Congrats to @BaseballCANJNT alum RHP Micah Bucknam (Abbotsford, BC), selected by the @BlueJays in the fourth round, 112th overall in the 2025 #MLBDraft!

@MattPowers31 Micah Bucknam off the board to Jays. He is a guy the Braves were really looking at.

@JoeDoyleMiLB Quite like this pick for the Blue Jays. Micah Bucknam has velocity and has one of the better sliders in the Draft.

@Tyson_MLB Micah Bucknam comes full circle for the #BlueJays. Increased his draft ranking and won a College World Series ring with LSU. Not too shabby.


Image from @piasentintim

Round 5 - 143rd overall. 3B Tim Piasentin, Foothills Composite High School, Okotoks, Alberta. Bats Left, Throws Right. 6-foot-3, 200 pounds. Born March 25, 2007. Slot Value $503,800.

MLB.com Scouting Report - The Canadian province of Alberta has produced just four big leaguers, a quartet of right-handed pitchers led by Michael Soroka. A year ago, Nathan Flewelling represented the western region as a big, strong left-handed high school hitter whom the Rays selected in the third round. Piasentin fits a similar profile as a young hitter who was rising up Draft boards after showing off his tools in a swing through Arizona during Spring Training. At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, Piasentin is a presence in the box from the left side of the plate. His standout tool is his raw power, and he can get to it. He had very impressive batting practice sessions with a wood bat in Arizona, showed he could catch up to premium velocity with a base hit to his pull side against a Royals Minor League reliever with upper-90s gas and turned around junior college competition during that Arizona trip. Not everyone is a believer in the hit tool as there is some swing-and-miss, with some scouts thinking it could take a while for him to be ready to produce good numbers as a pro. While Piasentin has a plus arm that works well from third base, it's unclear whether he'll be able to stay there. He's a bit of a plodder with limited range, so a move to first base might be in order, while some wouldn't mind seeing that arm in right field. He's committed to Miami should the Draft not work out, with some scouts thinking he could emerge as an early-round pick after a few years of college reps.

Baseball America Scouting Report - BA Grade: 50/Extreme. In 2024, Canadian prepster Nathan Flewelling put on a power-hitting show on the second day of the MLB Draft combine, then was plucked 94th overall in the draft by the Rays. This year, it very well might be Piasentin, the top-ranked Canadian prospect in the class, who follows suit and hears his name called in a similar range. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound third baseman hit several towering home runs at the combine, corroborating the present physicality, strength, raw power and impressive exit velocities that scouts saw for most of the last year. Piasentin has room to add even more to his frame. He sets up with a slightly open stance featuring a head-high handset and a quiet hand load before firing his hands through the zone with an uphill path and steeper finish. It’s a ready-made swing to drive the ball with authority in the air, leaving open the potential for double-plus raw power one day. Defensively, he’s a definite corner profile who has a chance to stick at third base with his plus arm. With two plus tools on the card and a chance for gaudy home run totals one day if he can make enough contact, Piasentin fits in rounds three through five based on talent. He’s committed to Miami. Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run:40 | Field: 45 | Arm: 60.

Twitter Reaction

@JoeDoyleMiLB 3B Tim Piasentin can sure backspin a baseball. Some of the best feel for launch so far today. Parked buckets of balls in the seats. Consistent barrels and 108.6 peak. Physical frame.

@mlbdraftleague Tim Piasentin to #LightsUpLetsGo The @BlueJays have selected 3B Tim Piasentin (@BaseballCANJNT) with the 143rd pick (5th rd) in the @MLBDraft! Piasentin was one of Canada’s top bats during their series against the #MLBDraftLeague in June.

@643charts Tim Piasentin has been selected in the 5th round of the #MLBDraft by the @BlueJays! At last month's MLB Draft Combine Piasentin had a 108.1 average EV.

@Damon98_ Here's Blue Jays 5th rounder Tim Piasentin launching balls into the Rogers Centre bleatures at the Blue Jays futures academy this past September. Piasentin was the winner of the derby. Perhaps foreshadowing what's to come in the future.


Image from Auburn Tigers.

Round 6 - 172nd overall. SS Eric Snow, Auburn. Bats Right, Throws Right. 5-foot-8, 188 pounds. March 10, 2004. Slot Value $383,600.

Baseball America Scouting Report - Snow began his career at South Florida where he had a standout 2023 freshman season, led the team in hitting and homered eight times. He wasn’t nearly as productive as a sophomore and transferred to Auburn for the 2025 season where he moved from a regular shortstop into a utility infield role, mostly playing third base and second. Snow’s impact at the plate more closely resembled his impressive freshman campaign. Listed at 5-foot-8, 190 pounds, Snow is undersized with a compact frame that is mostly filled out. He doesn’t have loud tools, but he is an excellent contact hitter who doesn’t miss a fastball and rarely swings and misses inside the strike zone. His power is limited and he’s not a burner, but he does a lot of things well on the field, competes in the box and has the hands to play all over the infield. His fringy arm strength might make second base his best defensive fit at the next level.

Twitter Reaction

@jeffMLBdraft Eric Snow is Ernie Clement part 2 and just went to Toronto.

@discussbaseball Eric Snow going north of the border just makes sense (hence the last name). 5’8”, 188 with a compact body, smooth movements. OPS was .896 at Auburn in ‘25. Handled the CCBL very well.

@OrcaBaseball On Day 2 of the #MLBDraft, the Toronto Blue Jays have selected Micah Bucknam, Tim Piasentin, Eric Snow. Bucknam and Snow are college players and likely gives the Blue Jays some room to sign Piasentin who has huge upside with the bat at 3B.


Image from Auburn Tigers.

Round 7- 202nd overall. RHP Dylan Watts, Auburn. Bats Right, Throws Right. 6-foot-4, 193 pounds. Born July 15, 2004. Slot Value $299,900.

Baseball America Scouting Report - Watts is a 6-foot-4, 205-pound righthander who began his career at Tacoma (Wash.) Community JC in 2023. The Brewers drafted him in the 18th round in 2023, but instead of signing Watts went to Auburn where he pitched mostly in the bullpen for the next two years. Watts’ career 7.25 ERA at Auburn is underwhelming, but teams are intrigued with his pure arm talent. He sits around 95 mph with his fastball and has been up to 99 at peak velocity. He also generated a miss rate north of 50% with his hard and tight mid-80s slider. His mid-80s fading changeup is a real third pitch as well. Watts showed solid control in his 2025 draft season.

Twitter Reaction

@Damon98_ Dylan Watts is a pure reliever. He's the money saver pick seeing as Piasentin likely comes in over slot. Also leaves some wiggle room to take another upside shot later on.


Image from UNC Greensboro.

Round 8 - 232nd overall. RHP Danny Thompson Jr., UNC Greensboro. Bats Right, Throws Right. 6-foot-0, 180 pounds. Born August 9, 2002. Slot Value $238,600.

Baseball America Scouting Report - Thompson is a 6-foot, 180-pound righthanded reliever who had his best season in 2025, his second at UNC Greensboro. He posted a 3.79 ERA with 87 strikeouts to 24 walks over 61.2 innings, nearly all in relief. A two-pitch arm, Thompson leans on a mid-90s fastball with solid life and a mid-80s gyro slider that generates swings and misses. He turns 23 in August and projects as a pro reliever, which could enable a quicker ascent through a system.



Image from HailState.com

Round 9 - 262nd overall. RHP Karson Ligon, Mississippi State. Bats Right, Throws Right. 6-foot-1, 210 pounds. Born February 14, 2023. Slot Value $206,900.

Baseball America Scouting Report - After spending much of the 2024 season pitching in relief, Ligon returned to the rotation this spring and pitched to a 5.40 ERA with a career-high 73 strikeouts to 29 walks across 56.2 innings. Ligon’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and has been up to 98, but his secondaries are his bread-and-butter offerings. His gyro slider generated a 30% whiff rate, while his mid-to-upper-80s changeup consistently flashes plus and garnered a 48% whiff rate.

Twitter Reaction

@Damon98_ Ligon didn't avoid walks this year (29 in 56.2 IP) but he showed off really good stuff that missed bats at a high clip. The slider is filthy, and the fastball velocity has ticked up each year since 2021. Blue Jays pitching development could have some fun with this pick.


Image from USDToreros.com

Round 10 - 292nd overall. OF Austin Smith, University of San Diego. Bats Left, Throws Left. 5-foot-11, 185 pounds. Born April 11, 2003. Slot Value $193,500.

Coverage of rounds 11-20 can be found right here.
2025 MLB Draft - Day 2, Rounds 4-10 | 57 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
mendocino - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#463606) #
Buckham mlb draft tracker fast
Gerry - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#463607) #
Canadian SP, from BC. Can be a bit wild.
Marc Hulet - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#463608) #
Bucknam sounds an awful lot like CJ Van Eyk - good breaking balls but fastball is straight as a pin. Either you give up velo for movement or you end up in the bullpen. Still waiting on Van Eyk to become a reliever... as he was exposed, as expected, in AAA.
hypobole - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#463610) #
FG on Bucknam

Barely pitched in two seasons at LSU, transferred to Baptist and had a good season — 29% K, 9% BB, 3.67 FIP — as a starter. Has one of the best breaking balls in the draft in his 85-89 mph slider. Late, tight, vicious two-planed movement. Routinely lives on the glove-side half of the plate. Potential plus-plus offering, especially if he can polish his command a little more. Fastball sits 93-94 without great movement. Was reaching back for 96 against his old mates at Baton Rouge regional. Slower curveball with in-zone utility, changeup feel is lacking. High-effort, relatively violent delivery creates relief risk.
mendocino - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#463611) #
I'll wait and see what these picks are signing for
mendocino - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#463612) #
Canada
metafour - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#463613) #
The Jays just took the top Canadian HS kid: 3B Tim Piasentin from Alberta.
hypobole - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#463614) #
Question: Bucknam ends up as a reliever and averages 1 bWAR per season during his 6 years of team control. Success or failure?
greenfrog - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#463615) #
If the Blue Jays select any more Canadians, we might have to start calling this the “elbows up” draft.
metafour - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#463616) #
As a 4th round pick, that is an easy success.

1 WAR is worth what, $8M in 2025 on the open market?
greenfrog - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#463617) #
WAR may not be a great measure of reliever value, and you would also want to know how many innings the reliever pitched (30? 50? 70?), but in general a 1 WAR relief pitcher would probably be pretty decent/useful.
John Northey - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#463623) #
Just checked and JoJo's twin brother - Jacob Parker - has yet to be drafted. Wonder if he indicated he doesn't plan to sign or something. I suspect the Jays might grab him in rounds 11-20 then so he doesn't affect the cap if he doesn't sign. Top undrafted is Jack Bauer at #44 now. 184 guys drafted as I type so Jacob Parker should've been taken by now if seen as signable.
hypobole - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#463625) #
I agree metafour. Only 47 relievers managed 1 fWAR last year. Plus when factoring in injuries and the general year-to-year up and down nature of relievers 6 fWAR would definitely be a success.
GabrielSyme - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#463628) #
Eric Snow definitely feels like a very Jays pick. Pretty decent hit tool in both the Cape and the SEC, lots of progress in improving his BB:K ratio over his college career.

More and more things have to go right as you get deeper into the draft for a pick to carve out a useful major league career, and while Snow doesn't seem to have much upside, he seems like a decent choice for this range. Hard to be excited though.
Glevin - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#463630) #
A reliever with 6 WAR would be a first round success.
Mike Green - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#463633) #
From 2019-25 (about 6 seasons when one accounts for the partial 2020 and 2025), there have been just 9 relievers who have averaged meaningfully more than 1 fWAR per year: Clase, Hader, Hendriks, Iglesias, D. Williams, Diaz, Pressly, Chapman and Jansen (Chapman and Jansen averaged 1.2 fWAR per year). These would be the best closers in baseball over the period.

Pete Fairbanks, for instance, averaged just under 1 fWAR per year over this period.
scottt - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#463636) #
Watts looks like a reliever and I don't mind that.
hypobole - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#463642) #
4 of 5 bats are lefty. All 4 pitchers righty. Coincidence? I don't think so. But yeah, probably.
Marc Hulet - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#463645) #
Other than JoJo, this is a very middling draft so I hope they're building up slot capital to do something interesting post-10th round... otherwise, I don't get it.
John Northey - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#463647) #
For the Jays almost any success from the 4th round would be a big deal - the best 4th round pick by the Jays ever was Casey Janssen (a reliever mostly) from the 2004 draft who got 7.4 WAR lifetime. Another reliever, Sam Dyson is 2nd in WAR at 5.9. For some reason the 4th round has sucked throughout Jays history, over multiple GM's. 5th has been a WOW one with Stieb, Hentgen, Young, Timlin all 19+ WAR guys, then decent guys like Biggio, Lane Thomas, and Marc Rzepczynski got 500+ games in the majors. Go figure. Round 4 just 1 guy got 500+ games - Ryan Goins, a backup infielder. Nick Frasso is a 4th who many thought the Jays would regret trading but has yet to reach at 26 and has a 5.81 ERA in AAA for the Dodgers (5 BB/9 6.7 K/9 after missing 2024 due to injuries). Ryan Jennings (class of 2022) is damn close - AA/AAA this year 2.83 combined ERA 6.5 BB/9 (yikes) vs 11.3 K/9 (nice), someone needs to give the kid a map of the strike zone.
Gerry - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#463648) #
The 8th, 9th and 10th round picks are all senior signs and Thompson is a 5 yr senior. The Jays should save around $500,000 there.
bpoz - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#463649) #
Shapiro's team has done very well saving money in the latter part of the 4-10th round.
metafour - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#463650) #
Marc, what exactly do you find middling about Tim Piasentin? His profile looks like a slightly smaller, less athletic version of Quentin Young who has garnered huge hype (and went to the Twins in the 50's). Otherwise its the same big power, swing/miss concern, big arm package at 3B/RF.

To me that pick isn't being talked about enough. He has apparently already toyed with ~110 mph EV's and was crushing balls at the Combine.
Kelekin - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#463651) #
It's not uncommon for the first drafts under a new drafting group to be a bit poor while they find their footing. We also lack a 2nd round pick, and a lot of early picks here are high probability boom/bust. Spencer is an interesting risk in the 11th.

This feels like one of those drafts where we'll either get a star, or nothing at all. And that's fine.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#463686) #
Yeah, Piasentine's EV's are a big deal. The Sanders draft failures were brought up by scottt I believe. 3 he mentioned were Warmoth, Groshans and Conine.

Law was high on Warmoth, particularly his swing. About a year later as Warmoth was struggling, Law issued a mea culpa, admitting he hadn't checked Warmoth's exit velocities at the time of the draft.

Sanders then doubled down the following year with Groshans. There were people who thought he had power, even read a Josh Donaldson comp at the time, but his EV's told an entirely different story.

And finally Conine. He had real power, but massive K issues. When Atkins dumped him on the Marlins, no one I recall thought it any great loss or much of a loss whatsoever. Sucks he dislocated his shoulder in the outfield this year, but in parts of 2 seasons he's put up wRC+ of 114 and 121.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#463691) #
Warmoth wasn't good but I always think it's important to note that these were the players taken after him: Jaren Kendall, Tanner Houck, Seth Romero, Bubba Thompson, Brendan Little, Nate Pearson, Christopher Seise, and Alex Lange. Drafting is hard and most players don't make it. Groshans is a bit different because you are picking earlier and more good players were available and the cute move they made going underslot didn't work. As for Conine, very fringe major leaguer. He has some good numbers because of inflated BABIP but his K issues aren't going away. The answer isn't power or contact, it's entirely player to player. It's hard to be a major leaguer if you don't hit the ball hard but also hard if you don't make good contact. Baseball is hard.
scottt - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#463695) #
I don't consider this a new drafting group.
Tramuta wasn't just hired. He's been doing this for a decade. Atkins and Shapiro have been here for 10 years.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#463699) #
Glevin, my point was more that Sanders was late joining the EV revolution. Warmoth and then Groshans. Conine is fringe much like Barger looked fringe after his 1st 160 PA's, although I also doubt he'll become the next Barger. As for his BABIP, players who hit the ball hard often have inflated BABIP's. 475 players had 160 PA's the past 2 seasons. Conines max EV is tied for 10th highest. His EV90 is top 10%, almost the same as Barger's.
metafour - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#463700) #
I had a strong feeling that Warmoth would not turn into anything (clear lack of standout tools) but there needs to be some perspective applied here. He was the 22nd overall pick. Lets not gloss over the fact that the "super smart" Rays took Brendan McKay #4 overall that year and he couldn't pitch OR hit. Super smart AA took Kyle Wright #5 overall (he at least has had one good MLB season). Pavin Smith went 7th overall, and Adam Haseley went 8th overall.

There were tons of complete busts drafted that year who were selected much higher than Logan Warmoth was. I remember that the Jays liked Jake Burger, but he went 11oth overall. He's had a bit of MLB success. They also liked Evan White who went 17th overall, and he also turned into nothing.

So yes, drafting is hard and most players will fail. I don't think its particularly noteworthy to bring up a late first round bust in a draft class that overall didn't produce much of anything past the first 3 picks.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#463701) #
Take a look down the Warmoth 1st round list and see who did make it. Brent Rooker. What does he do? He hits the ball hard.
metafour - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#463702) #
Brent Rooker was a nearly 23 year old college senior who was passed over by every team at least once (he was a compensation round pick). So yes in hindsight he should have been a Top 5-10 pick, but by "age models" he was seen as an old and physically maxed out hitter who was abusing younger ~19-21 year old college pitching, hence why he wasn't drafted in the actual 1st round.

Its also important to note that he played for 3 different teams before finally breaking out with Oakland at age 28 and required a swing adjustment to get there. So while his exit velocities are a clear reason why he is succeeding as a hitter now, it wasn't so apparent before (otherwise the Twins, Royals, or Padres would have likely kept him instead of shipping him off to Oakland).
hypobole - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#463704) #
WArmoth had no real plus tools and he had poor EV's, yet the Jays not only drafted him, but actually went slightly overslot to sign him. You guys can sugarcoat that any way you want, but that was a poor pick with little chance of success.

Pearson seems to have flamed out as well, but he was a good pick, because he did have at least one elite tool.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#463706) #
I wish to add to hypobole's comment. I did not like the Warmoth pick at all at the time. In addition to not having any of the "conventional tools", he had below average plate control. There was, for me, nothing to like.

Dustin Pedroia probably had low EVs when he was drafted in the 2nd round, but very strong plate control. The pick was panned by evaluators who focus on tools, but I regretted that the Jays hadn't drafted him.
metafour - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#463707) #
I'm not sugar-coating anything and I've already stated that I didn't like Warmoth's profile, but the point is that its very easy to point out why a draft pick did or didn't pan out after the fact. If it was that easy to do it beforehand, the success rate of draft picks would be drastically higher than it actually is. And even with much more access to advanced data, the success rate isn't getting astronomically better in 2025 than it was in 2017. I don't remember there being that much widespread noise about exit velocity in 2017. Every team uses that data extensively in 2025, but even with those readings its not like the success rate with drafted hitters is now through the roof. Guys with high exit velocity still fail all the time.

Logan Warmoth didn't fail simply because of his lack of exit velocity. He flat out didn't hit at all, and he also struck out a lot. I can point out to you that Ernie Clement produces ZERO exit velocity and is a successful MLB hitter, because he has elite contact rates. Warmoth has ultimately been a .236 hitter in the minor leagues, and while he wasn't known for having an elite hit tool, he wasn't being billed as a low-BA hitter out of college either. His plate discipline was also average in college, but he turned into a 27% K-rate guy in the minors. He had a 15.3% K-rate in his Junior season at UNC, and an even lower 9.76% K-rate in his Sophomore season. So his hit tool became below-average, his plate discipline became below-average, and his power was nonexistent. In reality, all of his offensive tools regressed. It would be a much different story if his average offensive tools advanced to a few above-average tools, and this is the developmental unknown that goes into drafting players.

And here is the ultimate point: Ernie Clement batted .315 as a Junior at Virginia. Logan Warmoth batted .336 as a Junior at North Carolina. They played in the same conference, in the same draft class. So which one of those two players would you expect to evolve into a high-contact MLB hitter, and which one do you expect to turn into a ~.230 minor league hitter? Sure Ernie Clement was still posting elite K-rates in college, but its not like this is a bulletproof way of identifying which hitters will ultimately become elite contact hitters in the MLB. Lots of college guys never strike out, and ultimately still can't hit for shit. Ernie Clement also hit 12 HR's last season, whereas he hit a TOTAL of 4 over three NCAA seasons. So even with zero exit velocity he managed to increase his pop in the majors with wood bats to the tune of 3x what he was doing in college with aluminum. Again, development is unpredictable.

Back to Rooker: its easy to look at his exit velocities after he finally figured it out at 28 years old and say "of course he's a good hitter, look at his exit velocities", but there are plenty of guys with high exit velocities who never amount to anything. And if Rooker had become one of those guys instead, everyone would be saying: "of course he failed, he was old as shit and everyone knows that hitters who are old are a bad bet to succeed". So in this case his age didn't end up being a deal-breaker in his development, but this doesn't mean that age all of a sudden doesn't matter. We know it does because you can find dozens upon dozens of ~23 year old hitters who are abusing Rookie and A-ball pitchers and ultimately they are non-prospects and never amount to anything.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#463708) #
Interesting to look back at the Warmoth draft. uglyone was 'do not love the pick unless he is a legit plus glove at SS', while he also loved the Pearson pick. I was simply "ranked 25, taken 22, seems reasonable" while mentioning how Russ Adams made all of us nervous.
metafour - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#463709) #
MLB Pipeline Tool-Grades from the 2017 Draft:

Warmoth: 55 Hit, 45 Power, 55 Run, 50 Arm, 50 Field, 50 Overall
Clement: 50 Hit, 30 Power, 55 Run, 50 Arm, 50 Field, 45 Overall

One guy turned into a ~60 Hit guy, the other turned into a ~40 Hit guy.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#463711) #
Good points metafour. I'll drop it.
scottt - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#463718) #
Most everyone taken in the first round reached.
A guy like Jeter Downs who couldn't cut it in the majors still hit all the way to AAA and had trade value for many years.
Not so with Warmoth.
Some of the guys who didn't make it had injuries. Chris Seise taken 29th by the Rangers had elbow, shoulder and then knee surgery.
metafour - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#463722) #
You're arguing semantics.

#17 overall Evan White "reached" but produced -0.8 career fWAR.
#23 Jeren Kendall did not reach.
#25 Seth Romero threw 2.2 innings and had a 13.5 ERA. He effectively did not reach.
#26 Bubba Thompson "reached" but produced -0.3 career fWAR.

Several of the guys drafted well above Warmoth "reached", but their impact is so negligible that no one would even know had they not reached. No team is going to consider their 1st round selection a success because they managed to play a few games and produced the same value as a scrap-heap player they could pick up tomorrow for the league minimum.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#463724) #
Warmoth had similar profile to say Kevin McGonigle (hit over power, high floor, maybe need to move off SS) and the latter looks like maybe a top-10 prospect in baseball. Major league teams themselves can't identify what is going to make a player succeed. We all biases as to what we like in prospects ( I like hitters with power and not a ton of swing and miss, especially high school) but none of us really know much.
Michael - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#463725) #
Generally #1 round picks are about 50/50 to make it to the majors and produce any fractional WAR. Obviously better odds when you are talking picks 1-5 than 25-30, but still you are unlikely to get much more than 15 of the top 30 picks produce anything above replacement. And the odds go down pretty steeply as you go later and later in the draft. A typical draft class for a single team might expect one non-fringe and 0-2 fringe players from all the draft rounds combined, but obviously there is big variance on that as no major league players is certainly not impossible, as would be several useful pieces or even a star or two.

As we and others have noted elsewhere, you can trade prospects and receive value even if the prospects them selves don't make it. And as others have noted it can be hard to tell if the pick was good/bad or the player development was good/bad or both when looking at both the players that make it and the players that don't.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#463726) #
Odds of a 1st round pick reaching - for the Jays 78 drafted, 52 reached (66%) with an average of 7.8 bWAR per guy who reached. This includes picks from #2 overall to #60 overall (the old 'sandwich picks' that AA went nuts on, forcing rule changes - 2011/12 had picks 57,58,60 as part of that first round). The sandwich round had picks from #31-60 for the Jays - they took 23 players in that 'bonus 1st round' and 13 reached (57%), totaling 57.6 bWAR or 4.4 per guy who reached.
Cutting those out the 'real' first round for the Jays works out as follows (removed the ones who didn't sign but reached via a future draft)
  • Total: 55 players, 39 reached 71%, 349.2 bWAR or 8.95 per guy who reached
  • top 10: 14 players, 9 reached 64%, 81.2 bWAR or 9.02 each
  • 11-20: 25 players, 19 reached 76%, 225.1 bWAR or 11.85 each (remove Halladay and it goes down to 8.94 each)
  • 21-30: 16 players, 9 reached 56%, 43.8 bWAR or 4.87 each
So basically 2/3rds reach, up to 3/4's for the Jays historically. You can expect 5-12 WAR with the odd Halladay/Wells/Hill showing up. And sometimes you get Augie Schmidt (who was an excellent college coach in the end).
John Northey - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 05:10 AM EDT (#463727) #
Sigh had to get up (kids) so I got thinking about round 2 - 54 drafted, 24 reached 44% - 111.6 bWAR, 4.65 per guy who reached. A clear drop from round 1. In fact, the only round 2 guy who reached 20+ WAR was David Wells (Bo should join him this year at some point with luck).

Round 3 is 52 picks, 20 reached (ignoring the 2 who DNS and reached) 38% totaling 173.5 WAR or 8.68 per player reaching. John Olerud and Jimmy Key were 58 and 48 WAR guys respectively then a massive drop to Shaun Marcum and his 13.4.

By round 10, the final round that helps the cap, you get 48 drafted (no more compensation picks), 9 reaching - 19% (higher than I expected to be honest) - totaling 36.3 WAR or 4.03 per guy who made it. Big gun is Yan Gomes at 18, all others sub 10 - Jordan Romano looked like he might go higher but is -1 WAR this year so far (8 saves, 3 blown, 6 holds).

By round 20 (the final round nowadays) it gets scarce. 47 drafted, 4 reached (9%) Jeff Kent the 'WOW' with 55.5 WAR, the others are led by Mark Hendrickson and his 4.2. So yeah, by the later rounds you need to swing for the fences as you ain't losing much if the guy doesn't sign or flops.

But don't take my word - check BA and how they analyze it.
scottt - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 06:01 AM EDT (#463728) #
Obviously, very few draft picks have long career and produce significant WAR.
That doesn't mean every pick is equally good or bad.
There were 36 players picked in the first round of the 2017 draft.
Of these 30 have reached. There players produced at the AA/AAA level and were given at least a cup of tea in the big leagues.
Some of them spent years on top prospects lists without producing at the MLB level.
Some of those that didn't reach had injuries or were high risk pick with tools but failed to develop.

The only decent numbers Warmoth produced were in A ball as a 23 year old and in the AFL.

In the 2022 draft, the Jays had 3 second round picks.
Kasevich is seen as a success, but Toman and Doughty have not produced outside of rookie ball. 
By WAR they are all equal. 
Glevin - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#463729) #
Michael is absolutely right. The average WAR by draft pick isn't even because of outliers (Trout makes pick #25 good) and randomness but there is a very clear and sharp curve where picking at the top-10 picks gets you around an average 10-12 WAR (20 WAR at pick #1). By middle of first round, that's like 6 WAR average and by end of first round somewhere around 2-3 WAR. Using some old Jays, the average #4 pick is Kevin Pillar. The average #12 pick is Aaron Loup. The average #28 pick is Scott Diamond. Drafting is very hard.
scottt - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#463730) #
There's a couple of other things to consider.

First signability. It used to be a huge thing, but it mostly disappeared by the time Atkins came here.
Teams would pass on some prospects because they would demand overslot money and some clubs willing to pay would select those late.

Second, the signing bonus. There's a reason there is also a pool of money allocated to each team.
If a first rounder turns into a pumpkin immediately, that money would have been better used to improve the picks in the later rounds.
There are always talented guys available late. Some of those will only sign if offered sufficient money. 

Drafting might be hard, but Baltimore and Boston have been good at it. 
metafour - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#463731) #
Scott, if a 1st round pick makes a call-up to the majors with the team that drafted him and produces lets say 0.5 WAR (or even worse, negative WAR) over multiple seasons, then that player is not any less a failure of a pick than Logan Warmoth. The team who drafted him did not trade him for any value, so who cares if that draft pick may have held slightly more "prospect value" at some point in time, or if they reached AAA as "still a prospect"? They didn't realize that value into any sort of gains, and then they called him up and he produced the value of a nothing player - therefore it was a wasted pick, no different than Logan Warmoth. In the case of Evan White, he actually produced NEGATIVE WAR, which means that he made Seattle worse by playing him for so long. Gee, would you rather have Warmoth never reach the majors, or him reach the majors but play so poorly that it results in nearly -1 WAR?

Using "reached the majors" as a barometer is also highly flawed because that is influenced by the team that drafted the player. The Jays were a winning team in the seasons where Warmoth would have been expected to be with the MLB team (ie: ~3 years after his draft year). Therefore there was zero need for the Jays to push him to the majors without him actually earning it, whereas on a perpetually losing team that has little talent he may have been given a cup of coffee in the majors for no reason other than the fact that the team is already losing, and therefore it doesn't hurt to give your failed 1st round pick a shot just in case under the pretense of "why not?". Adding on to this, your draft slot in the 1st round also plays an impact: players that are drafted with Top 10-15 picks will often get at least a token shot at the majors because there was much more investment made in the pick.

You seem to be pushing hard to make some sort of "yeah well so-and-so did better because their failed draft pick was marginally less disappointing than Warmoth" argument, when it really doesn't matter. Did they trade the prospect for value while he still had value? Did that draft pick produce anything worthwhile at the MLB level? If the answer to both of those questions is NO, then the pick was a failure - no different than Logan Warmoth.
metafour - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#463732) #
Did you really just bring up Baltimore?

Yes, it is much easier to draft well when you are awarded multiple free top draft picks every year. They held FIVE of the first 60 picks in this past weekend's draft. This is insane, and it also comes with unlimited flexibility to game the draft to your advantage due to the bonus pool available. They had the most money to spend out of any team picking this year, despite the fact that they held the #19 pick in the 1st round.

The entire MLB compensation system is a joke. The idea that a team that won 100+ games two seasons ago, and 90+ games last season is going to have FIVE Top 60 picks in the draft immediately following that success is beyond silly (yes, one was acquired from the Rays).

Take a look at Alex Anthopoulos' first few drafts where he was allowed to stack free compensation picks, and compare it to his last draft in Toronto when we had a late 1st round pick and zero compensation picks (thus one of the smallest total bonus pools in the draft). The difference in success is DRASTIC. Comically so actually. I'll give you a reminder: his last draft was the one where we took Jon Harris in the 1st round. None of his Top 10 round picks amounted to anything that year. The best selection was Brady Singer out of HS in the 2nd round, but he didn't sign so he gets no bonus points there. The most successful player from the entire class was Tayler Saucedo in the 21st round. He has produced 0.1 career WAR as a reliever. This was a far cry from those first few drafts when we had the pick and bonus power to select Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, and others.

This is important to distinguish because the Jays over the past few years have been in this same general position: drafting in the back half of the 1st round, and in some years actually LOSING draft picks (like this season) because they have been winning and have signed free agents. Yes Baltimore has "drafted well", but you can not seriously use this as a comparison. They have had SEVERAL years where they have picked in the Top 5-10 overall, and even when they haven't, they are handed free compensation picks which makes it considerably more likely that you will ultimately "draft well". Even the worst drafting team in the league can find some success with 5 picks in the Top 60.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#463739) #
Orioles have drafted well?

This years picks have nothing to do with that question. Yes comparing the O's to Toronto is apples and oranges. But every year about 13-14 other teams get an extra small market/revenue pick. How have they done compared to those teams?

metafour - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#463743) #
Again, I've already agreed that Baltimore has drafted well. But the point is simple: they still follow the same pattern as every other team: they draft "better" when they have higher picks, and they draft "better" when they have more picks.

You'll notice that you don't hear anything crazy about their last two first round picks: Vance Honeycutt and Enrique Bradfield Jr. were drafted 22nd and 17th overall. Honeycutt looks bad, and Bradfield Jr. while looking better has no power and is carried by his OBP (which will be harder to maintain moving forward).

As a result, their 2024 and 2023 drafts look considerably worse than their 2022, 2021, and 2020 drafts when they had the #1, #5, and #2 overall picks. And its not hard to predict that their 2025 draft will likely end up looking very strong years from now.





John Northey - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#463744) #
I too am not a fan of the free picks for badly run teams (aka competitive balance picks) - these are based on "If a team ranks in the bottom 10 of league revenue or resides in one of the 10 smallest markets, it is eligible for a competitive balance pick in the MLB Draft." Guess Rogers needs to cook the books better so the Jays can get some of these picks. Who qualified? Brewers, Tigers (!), Mariners (!), Twins, Rays, Reds, Athletics, Marlins, Guardians, Orioles (?), D-backs (?), Royals, Cardinals, Pirates, Rockies.

The Tigers have a market that is large - in 2018 their market was rated above the Jays, Arizona not far behind them (middle tier), Cardinals not far back of that (they always have had good revenue despite a small market). The O's are always poor in revenue due to poor management imo (late 90's they cracked 3.5 mil in attendance with Gillick in charge, but despite being a damn good team these past few years they barely cracked 2 mil last year and will probably come up short this year). Seattle is insane imo - they have a large population base, 3 straight years of 2+ mil (2.5 the past 2) and are the 13th largest TV market in the USA. Seattle getting one of these picks is an insult to every team not getting a pick. The Rays are in the 11th biggest market (just really, really poorly run on the financial/marketing side, as bad on that side as the team is good on the playing side).
metafour - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#463745) #
Whoops, I forgot that Baltimore had the #1 overall pick in 2019 as well lol (Rutschman).

That makes it 4 straight drafts with a Top 5 pick, and 3 of those were Top 3 picks. They had the #11 overall pick in 2018 as well.

Yes, they draft well...but there is obvious context there.
metafour - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#463747) #
The worst part about the Competitive Balance format is that it treats Toronto as a "large market team", but it fails to consider that the vast majority of players are clearly hesitant about playing in Canada for a whole range of reasons: generally higher taxes, away from family home/town, perceived colder weather, etc. So while the Jays "have money", they pretty much always have to pay a premium to draw free agent talent. When a player has a full no-trade clause, they are very happy to use to block trades to Toronto even when the team is strong.

So they generally need to over-pay to make any splash signings, and then when they do they are rewarded by being penalized draft picks and IFA money. Meanwhile several of those apparently competitively-poor teams are some of the most successful in baseball. The freaking Cardinals were one of the best teams in baseball all throughout the 2000's and 2010's, and they had zero problems signing Albert Pujols to what was at the time a landmark contract. This franchise requires CHARITY lol?
hypobole - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#463748) #
As far as taxes go, the Jays are able to use RCA's where players can lower their taxes until they retire. How much they can lower was a subject of a lawsuit by the CRA vs Martin and Donaldson, but the ex-Jays won in Tax Court.

In the NBA, RCA's are prohibited by the Collective Agreement for being a competitive advantage.
scottt - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#463749) #
They didn't tank last year.
They have a good draft this year because they let some guys walk and didn't signed anybody of worth.
They should have a good draft next year as well because of this year's poor results.

There's a weird relationship between the O's and the Nats.
Neither team is good this year, which is a shame, but whenever the Nats become competitive again Baltimore will face some revenue pressure.
scottt - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#463750) #
Even if you give Baltimore zero credit for taking Rutschman 1st overall, they still took Gunnar Henderson in the second round  with Kyle Stowers and Joey Ortiz in the 4th.
Of course, the Jays did alright that year with Manoah. 

The point is that other teams have gotten tons of early draft picks and haven't had that much success.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#463751) #
Draft year matters a ton. You can get high first round pick in a year with top guys there or you can get it in a down year. Look at 2018, Tigers got Mize first overall. Not great for a first overall guy but the draft was weak. Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, India, Kelenic, etc... 2019 draft was a great draft and much easier to get a great player. Is Bobby Witt a much better pick than Joey Bart? Obviously but nobody like Witt was available when the Giants took Bart so that comparison isn't remotely fair. Tigers drafted Mize and Torkelson first overall over a few years and both are major leaguers but neither are stars. They were also drafted in years when there wasn't a standout #1 prospect and the top of the draft was weak. It's very hard to draw large conclusions from this stuff.
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