So even though Michael Kay was heavily insinuating the Jays are cheating apparently this afternoon he felt the need to publicly defend the jays against accusations of cheating.

To get ahead of any of this I wanted to point out the specifics of how our hitting was different on the road vs home.

The first thing to note is that while the Jays were better at home (120wrc+) than on the road (105wrc+), this is true of most every other team too.....and the Jays road 105wrc+ was the 5th best road mark in MLB, while their 120wrc+ was just one spot higher at 4th best home mark.

And more granularly....


HOME: 8.6bb%, 17.3k%, .300babip, .271avg, .178iso
AWAY: 8.3bb%, 18.3k%, .296babip, .260avg, .147iso

HOME: 20.1ld%, 41.0gb%, 39.0fb%, 10.8iffb%, 12.3hrfb%, 6.6ifh%
AWAY: 20.6ld%, 42.4gb%, 37.0fb%, 10.7iffb%, 10.5hrfb%, 4.6ifh%

HOME: 38.3pull%, 35.9cen%, 25.9opp%, 15.4soft%, 51.2med%, 33.5hard%
AWAY: 39.3pull%, 35.2cen%, 25.5opp%, 16.6soft%, 51.6med%, 31.7hard%


so we can see that the lines are extremely similar almost all the way through, most within a percentage point and almost all within a few percentage points difference...... except the one significant discrepancy being isolated power - 21% better at home than on the road. Which in turn seems to be the result of a slightly higher flyball% plus a slightly higher hard hit %.

Now this doesn't prove anything either way but i would expect a home cheater margin to be both bigger and more broad-based. Not almost entirely isolated in power - something I suspect might more accurately be due to home ballpark effects - something which the renovations were arguable meant to do, both in increasing HR but also other XBH in general.


I don't know if there's other data available for home/away splits - like exit velocity and the like. Or if there's somewhere we can find our opponents' overall splits between Rogers Center and everywhere else.

Michael Kay's words today (after blatantly insinuating last night that the jays were cheating):

https://x.com/ESPNNewYork/status/1975281095467016390

It all seems of a piece with our era, where if you lose, you invoke an alleged conspiracy committed by your adversary, like the departing president and his team of sore losers falsely accusing Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman of stuffing suitcases with illegal ballots.

Kay's been blatantly insinuating this for years tbh



https://x.com/KutterIsKing/status/1975302247878909971

This Mitch Bannon (The Athletic) excerpt does not sound encouraging about the potential for a Bo return for the ALCS:

Bo Bichette did not travel with the Jays to New York. He stayed behind in Toronto “still progressing” from his knee sprain he suffered on Sept. 6, Schneider said. There is “no glaring update,” according to the manager, suggesting the shortstop has still not begun running or hitting live velocity.

The ALCS, if the Jays were to advance, begins on Sunday. That gives Bichette six more days to move from progressing to progressed.

At home: Jays 120 wRC+, Yankees 117 wRC+ - 4th and 5th in the majors.

On Road: Jays 105 (6th), Yankees 120 (1st).

Yankees actually hit worse at home than on the road. Says something doesn't it?

Pitching sOPS+ home: Jays: 100 Yankees: 87

On road: Jays: 101 Yankees: 94

Clearly the Jays need to work on getting their pitchers to do better at home. Yankees need to work on their hitters at home. However, the spreads aren't beyond normal. So any claims there is a 'man in white' this year for the Jays at home is just silly. Hopefully the Jays win the next game 15-1 or something to quiet down the Yankee conspiracy people.

phillies may have just ended their own season by bunting.

absolutely brutal. tying run on 2nd with no out in the bottom of the 9th and you bunt with a slow runner on base.

they deserve to lose.

What on earth was Roberts thinking bringing out Treinen for the 9th?

Greenfrog, Rosenthal also did an in-game hit during game 2 where he said he doesn’t think about is coming back. Still limping around, no running yet.

The World Series starts Oct. 24. Maybe that is a more realistic timeline for Bo. Even that might be unrealistic if his limping phase lasts much longer.

I can see him as a pinch hitter in the World Series. Can't wait for Bieber to deliver the goods tonight and close this case. Should be special.

Only one other catcher, besides Kirk, has homered twice in a playoff game against the Yankees -- Johnny Bench in 1976.

If Bieber can close the door on the series tonight the trade will be seen as a success, ala the Cone deal in '92. You don't worry about the lost prospect if the team goes deep into the post-season. Should be a fun night. Lets hope.

Bieber has been solid for the Blue Jays this year, and the very low walk rate (1.56 BB/9) is excellent, but he has been homer-prone at times. He has allowed two HR in each of his last two starts. In some starts, he’s been very good except for one inning. Let’s see if he can avoid that one inning in tonight’s game.

His best start this year was arguably his first one (against Miami).

I consider the trade a win already. Here are some reasons why:

* Not having to go to Berrios, Bassitt or Scherzer for Game 3 tonight.

* 7 starts to shore up the starting rotation during the season

* 5-2 in those 7 starts

* 2.97 ERA in the 2 losses to MIL and KC

* Likely better chance to re-sign him should management choose to

Trey Yesavage has a negative FIP this postseason with a -0.43.

He's outdone by Mason Miller, who has a -1.74 FIP, albeit in half as many innings.

lineup

1. DH Springer
2. LF Schneider
3. 1B Guerrero
4. C Kirk
5. CF Varsho
6. 3B Clement
7. RF Santander
8. 2B Falefa
9. SS Gimenez


hard to get upset about it at this point but the Falefa thing annoys me not gonna lie. I get that they're going defense first but falefa and gimenez vs a lefty is a little too cocky to me.

At least if we do happen to close this series out, then the next round won't feature many lefties no matter who the opponent. Skubal the only lefty SP on either team.

Yeah, I'd have gone Straw in LF and Schneider at 2B. IKF has his uses but he doesn't hit lefties so don't know why Schneider keeps using him as a platoon guy.

Bieber does get a lot of groundballs, so John wants the best infield defense he can get. The decision was probably more Straw vs. Santander than IKF.

"Bieber does get a lot of groundballs, so John wants the best infield defense he can get. The decision was probably more Straw vs. Santander than IKF."

I don't think the Jays like Straw in RF that much (his arm?). He only played 14 games there all year as opposed to 40 in RF. Anyway, I think because of the short porch in Yankee Stadium RF is less important than most places which is why Soto was even OK out there last year.

Yankees stacked their lineup with lefties *again* tonight.

Bieber 2025
RHH: 297/342/936
LHH: 156/188/434

That’s a .434 OPS not slugging. They just did the same thing two days ago and got embarrassed and had to resort to accusing the Jays of cheating. What will the excuse be this time?

Also Bieber is rested which seems to help him as his stamina returns. Jamie Campbell broom watch is on

The only game Bieber gave up more than 3 runs was the only game he pitched on short (4 days) rest.

Guessing we’ll see Straw as a defensive replacement or pinch-runner for Santander at some point in the second half of the game — if the Blue Jays are ahead.

Andrew Stoeten @AndrewStoeten

Fun fact: Shane Bieber has allowed eight home runs in just 40 1/3 innings, yes. However, because he doesn't walk anybody, all but one has been a solo shot. And according to xHR only four of his batted balls would have left the yard at Yankee Stadium.

It’s also possible that we have yet to see Bieber reach his full post-TJ potential (although his start against Miami was very impressive). It wouldn’t surprise me to see him turn it up a notch and deliver a very good start tonight.

Vlad has 21 career at bats against Rodon: 10-17, 4 walks, 0 strikeouts, 1 Hr, 5 RBI's.

Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson

John Schneider on the pressure of managing the lone Canadian team:

“When you're feeling a country, it kind of gets a little dicey at times. Like the 6th inning, bases loaded, nobody out and Aaron Judge hitting, you feel like people in Nova Scotia might want to come murder you.”

You hear that? Gotta love the dauntingness of the moment for the NYY. I absolutely love it. So enjoyable.

jomboy says the yanks have never in their history been swept in a divisional series.

​today's the day boys.

"Today's your day, baby Whachagonedu?"

The Yankees will come out and make a statement with more runs in the first three innings than the previous two games combined. Rodon strikes out 12.

Thank you, Marc.

You are the Hero we needed, Marc.

Probably not a great time for the defense to have a bad game. I’m typing this as Judge comes to the plate, come on Varland!

Helluva a swing by Judge.

Guess we all knew Judge couldn't be held down forever. Kind of like George Brett in 1985. Lets just hope the Jays can get that 3rd win again - in '85 if it was a best of 5 the Jays would've gone to the World Series.