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The Royals may actually be pretty good this season. It doesn't happen very often, and I know it's still early, but so far- so pretty good.


And Bobby Witt Jr may very well be your early season leader in the MVP horse race (ahead of the pack as they come around the first turn? Is that how they say it when they call horse races?)

Witt of course is the son of a former major leaguer, and like the major league progeny of Ken Griffey, Sandy Alomar, and Vladimir Guerrero he carries his father's name. Hence the Junior. SO I thought I'd tell the group a little about his father. For the benefit of you young 'uns, who weren't around.

The original Bobby Witt was drafted by the Texas Rangers in 1985 - he was the third player selected, after B.J. Surhoff and Will Clark, and just ahead of Barry Larkin and Barry Bonds. The Rangers had the third overall pick because they had sucked so badly in 1984 (69-92). They would be even worse in 1985 (62-99) and would get Kevin Brown with the fourth overall pick in 1986 as their reward.

The 1986 Rangers decided to give the kids a chance. They put three rookies in their starting rotation. There was Jose Guzman and Edwin Correa, a pair of Puerto Rican RHs - while Guzman was a fairly polished young pitcher, Correa was a 20 year old who threw very, very hard but without much sense of where the strike zone might be. But next to Bobby Witt, Correa was Greg Maddux. In his first taste of pro ball at AA Tulsa in 1985, Witt had gone 0-6, 6.48 while walking 44 men in 35 IP. Did this prompt Rangers management to return him to the minors for more seasoning? It did not. The three kids, along with the old knuckleballer CHarlie Hough, were the new Texas rotation.

And it worked. The Rangers went 87-75 in 1986. They had also cobbled together a brand new outfield, also made up of fuzzy-cheeked youngsters - Pete Incaviglia, Oddibe McDowell, and - the most exciting of all - Ruben Sierra. The three rookie pitchers fought the league to a draw - Correa had the best season (12-14, 4.23) of the three, although his arm would fall off in early 1987. He was still just 21 years old,  and he never pitched in the majors again.

And Bobby Witt? As a rookie, he made 31 starts and went 11-9, 5.48. In 157.2 IP he struck out 174 batters, which would have comfortably led the league in K/9 if he'd just pitched another five innings. He also walked a mind-boggling 143 batters in those 157.2 innings - come on, take a moment, read that again! - which did lead the league in just about every way possible.

His second season was quite a bit like his first - 8-10, 4.91 - this time, in just 143 innings, he managed to walk 140 batters while striking out 160. Can you imagine how many pitches he had to throw to do all that? Half of them in the heat of a Texas summer?

But 1988 was a little different. Witt got off to a terrible start - he went 0-5, 7.68 in his first six starts, issuing the usual 35 walks in 36.1 innings. He then went on the Disabled List for two months. How did Bobby Valentine handle his young pitcher when he returned from his injury?

By having him pitch nine consecutive Complete Games. And we have Pitch Counts! They were: 134, 139, 129, 139, 128, 126, 104, 125, and 125. In his next start, he came out after eight innings and 151 pitches. Hey it was Texas. In August.

Why did Bobby Valentine do such a thing?

Well, Witt was pitching just great. He went 6-3, 2.08 in those nine starts and - most remarkably - walked just 35 batters in 78 IP. He scuffled a little after that, but finished his year with three strong starts. And in his 16 games after returned from the DL, he'd gone (8-5, 2.93) with "just" 66 BB in 138 IP. The Ks were down a little as well (7.6 per 9 innings - still one of the best in the league even if down from its previous giddy heights.) The trade-off was clearly worth it.

Had he arrived as a star? Not quite - he maintained the same K and BB ratios in 1989, but was suddenly giving up almost a hit per inning. That didn't work - he went 12-13, 5.14, and led the league in walks for the third time. But in 1990 he finally put it all together, going 17-10, 3.36 with 221 Ks (second in the league) in 222 IP. He had arrived, at last.

He broke down the following year. He made 9 starts, went on the DL for two months, and when he returned he was somebody else. The stuff that had made him special was gone. He was just another guy now. He was still good enough to pitch for another ten years, making 240 starts for seven different teams. His last appearance in the majors came in the sixth game of the 2001 World Series, when he gave the D'Backs a scoreless inning of relief in their 15-2 rout of the Yankees. He was 37 years old by this time, and Bobby Jr had marked his first birthday a few months earlier.

Correa was the first to break down, but Guzman didn't escape - after three seasons in the Texas rotation, he missed all of 1989 and 1990. Unlike Correa, he was able to fight his way back to have another three decent seasons before the doctors called off his career. He now works the Spanish language broadcasts for the Rangers. Correa founded a baseball academy and secondary school in Puerto Rico. And Bobby Witt is a player agent, and I'll bet you can guess the name of at least one of his clients.

Jonathan Bowlan is up from Omaha to fill in for Alec Marsh in tonight's series opener. Bowlan made his MLB debut late last September, and the one run he allowed in his two short appearances came on the 511th - and last - home run of Miguel Cabrera's magnificent career.

Matchups

Mon 29 April - Bowlan (---) vs Rodriguez (0-1, 3.86)
Tue 30 April - Ragans (1-2, 3.90) vs Berrios (4-1, 1.23)
Wed 1 May - Lugo (4-1, 1.66) vs Bassitt (2-4, 5.64)

Kansas City at Toronto, April 29-May 1 | 197 comments | Create New Account
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dalimon5 - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#445240) #
Accepted Re-observations:

1. Vlad is not the generational hitter we all expected. Time to move on. Now I will strictly view him as a very good hitter with good OBP and some bad tendencies for a young player. I will grade him as a 25 home run hitter with .270ish average and live with his flaws. If he does better, wow. If he does worse, oh well.

2. Bo is not well now but he is still an elite bat to me and may bat over .400 again in some months to average out his numbers. He's a top of the league bat with some pop.

3. Springer is a dad with slower bat speed. .270ish average with 20 HR is the new expectation from me.

With this new view it now becomes a question to me of how best to improve the team right now. The answer to that may be moving Springer down in the line up and slotting Vlad in front of another power hitter.

Biggio 2B
Turner DH
Vlad 1B
Schneider LF
Bichette SS
Springer RF
Varsho CF
Jansen C
Clement 3B


Biggio sees a lot of pitches, Springer and Bo do not. That's why he leads off.

Turner has great at bats which you want to put 2nd.

Vlad did best in the past when hitting 3rd and benefits from Schneider/Bichette/Springer behind him.

Bichette is low in this line up until he gets going, similar to how the manager did this in 2022.

John Northey - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#445242) #
Yeah, looking at Bo, Vlad, and Springer the Jays need to start thinking about what to do next at those 3 positions. Bo will almost certainly be gone post 2025, might be traded post 2024. Vlad is harder to predict - he has been the face of the franchise for awhile now, so they might hesitate to let him go, and his value elsewhere won't be as high in the marketing as here (maybe for the Angels - trying to get people back who remember his dad, that team really has issues). Springer is getting old and showing it, but still is strong on defense and has value in the OF but needs more time off I suspect to be at his best.

Given the payroll is already sky high they need to get kids in. Schneider, Clement (not a kid, but not a free agent until post 2028), Barger, Rodríguez are all parts of that future team who need chances now. I'm hoping Barger gets his first hit before he goes back down to Buffalo. Orelvis will get a shot at some point this year, maybe some other kids too. Nimmala is a great hope, but his 181/289/278 line isn't promising. 22 year old Nic Goodwin in A+ is showing something at SS 218/377/473 as is 23 year old Josh Kasevich in AA 342/398/447. Even long time prospect Leo Jimenez in AAA (23) is hitting/walking 254/413/365. Is there something there for the post-Bo era? Don't know. Hope so.
Ducey - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#445244) #
Its only April. Last year Chapman was the best 3B in history.

I prefer to wait and see on Vlad. I think he will start hitting the fastballs he is fouling off at some point.
scottt - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#445245) #
By OPS, we're now at
1 Jansen .892
2 Turner .861
3 Varsho .820
4 Schneider .789
5 Clement .734
6 Biggio .688
7 Guerrero .659
8 Springer .654
9 IKF .652
10 Bichette .568
11 Kirk .567
12 KK .474
13 Vogelbach .471
14 Serven (not here anymore) .200
15 Barger (not here yet, it seems) 000

Right now, the best spot for Bo might be on the bench.
He's not a great defender and I don't believe that sitting a game here and there will hurt his hitting.

scottt - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#445246) #
OPS+ is basically (OBP+) + (SLG+) - 1.
League average OBP is currently .315. That's the lowest it's been since 2022 when it was .312
League average SLG is currently .387. That's the lowest it's been since 2014 when it was .386.
League average OPS is .702 which is not necessarily the same as OPS+=100.

John Northey - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#445248) #
Don't forget OPS+ also factors in park, which might be a big deal as the new Skydome is not as hitter friendly as in the past it seems.

Jays down to 6 guys with a 100+ OPS+ now (was at 9 pre-LAD).
  • 150+ (star level): Jansen & Turner
  • 120-149 (damn fine): Varsho & Schneider
  • 100-119 (OK): Clement & Biggio
  • 90's (sigh): Vlad, Springer, & IKF (who'd have put those 3 together on offense)
  • 60s (ugh): Kirk & Bo
  • Sub 50 (using wrong end of bat): Vogelbach, Kiermaier
  • Sub 0 (need to bring a bat to the plate): Serven & Barger
I'm sure Bo will get better, but this April has to be his worst month ever, I can't recall him sucking this much ever before.
dalimon5 - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#445250) #
"Its only April. Last year Chapman was the best 3B in history.

I prefer to wait and see on Vlad. I think he will start hitting the fastballs he is fouling off at some point."


Correction with Vlad. It's only been April, May, June, July, Aug, Sep (2022), April, May, June, July Aug, Sep (2023), April (2024). 13 months. *

*large sample size alert
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#445252) #
Tonight's line-up:

Springer RF / Guerrero Jr. 1B/ Turner DH
Varsho CF / Jansen C / Schneider LF
Biggio 2B / Kiner-Falefa SS / Barger 3B
Ducey - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#445253) #
"*large sample size alert"

2022 he had an OPS+ of 133. Last year it was 117. I doubt people would be bellyaching as much if he was somewhere between those two right now.

He likely will get there.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#445254) #
I doubt people would be bellyaching as much if he was somewhere between those two right now.

Let me clear those doubts from your mind.

They absolutely would!!!
scottt - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#445255) #
Bo is coming off a career year and was supposed to be a leader this year.
Park factors are a funny thing. Especially asymmetric parks.

dalimon5 - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#445257) #
OPS+ of 100 is league average. 125 is good. He's in between average and good. The gripes from people don't come from him being average to good...those are the adjusted expectations. Issue comes from fans expecting him to be good or better which is typically OPS+ of 125 and higher.

Pretty sure most if not all of us expect Vladdy to be able to do better than 115 OPS+...that's the new expectation from me for him. It's nothing special for his position and likely nets him out between 0 WAR and 2 WAR.

Totally okay with that performance and shifting focus to this FO and Bo who need to step up and provide some help.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#445258) #
Bo is coming off a career year and was supposed to be a leader this year.

I have no opinion on the second part of that statement, but Bichette did not have a career year in 2023. His last three seasons are essentially interchangeable. The best OPS+ was in 2022, but I prefer his 2021 season myself. By an eyelash, or something equally small.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#445259) #
I think the Blue Jays can make the playoffs with Bo and Vladdy posting around a 115-120 wRC+. That seems doable.
dalimon5 - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#445260) #
Completely agree.

Atkins can help by GM'ing like a mad man. Trade Biggio and Schneider for Arraez from MIA.

greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#445262) #
Arraez has a 107 wRC+ and a -0.1 fWAR (0.0 bWAR) this year. Decent hitter and very poor defender (Baseball Savant rates him at 1st percentile in range and 6th percentile in arm strength). I'm not sure how well he fits on the Blue Jays roster. Maybe part-time DH, part-time 2B, and sometime bench player?

He would be an interesting LHB to have on the roster this year and next, especially in the apparently-power-depleting RC, but I'm not sure I would give up Biggio+Schneider for him. I would prefer the team look for an offensive upgrade while maintaining their high-level defense.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#445263) #
Trade Biggio and Schneider for Arraez from MIA.

It's a wild idea. I'm pretty sure both GMs would pass, which alone makes it interesting to think about. I would actually have to think a little about Biggio for Arraez straight up (including Schneider as well is a complete deal-breaker.) Biggio and Arraez both have one more arb year after this one and then they hit free agency. Arraez is two years younger. He's also twice as expensive and Biggio does almost everything better. He's a much better second baseman, a much better base runner. He hits way more home runs and takes way more walks.

There is, in fact, just one thing Arraez does well on a baseball field, and that's hit singles. But that one thing he does do, he does at a truly elite Tony Gwynn kind of level. If that's what your team needs....
soupman - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#445264) #
i also don't think arraez is a good idea. the white sox might give up luis robert jr for the right price. but then...why do that unless its varsho moving back.

fwiw i was on the tyler o'neill bandwagon since i saw the gunshow last year and looked up his vlad-esque heater year. he'll be a FA this winter. could be a good target - but he's a boras guy, so who knows?

around the league the only major league player that i see that the jays might be able to get right now that makes sense is another marlins reliever like Anthony Bender who strikes out a tonne of guys and has had really bad batted ball luck this year. he's a super 2, and turning 30. problem is, he's a righty.

imo, this team could use a guy like miller in the 9th. but so could 30 other teams. bender has a nasty sinker/slider combo, is fresh off TJ, and the marlins are dead in the water already this year - plus bender underperforming results wise makes him a strong regression candidate like hicks/cabrera last year and others in previous years. it's the consulate atkins move - and that's why it's my best guess as to something they'd consider right now especially with green down.
John Northey - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#445265) #
FanGraphs has the latest Power Ratings out with the Jays at #15 - dead centre. Back to the Ash/JPR years? Let's hope not.

By fWAR the Jays are...
C: #17; 1B: #14; 2B: #5; 3B: #17; SS: #28 (!); LF: #4; CF: #2; RF: #22; DH: #12; SP: #18, RP: #28

Lots of 'meh' there. Top 10 at 2B, LF, CF (who knew 2B?), bottom 10 in RF, SS (ouch), and Relief. So issues in the pen, and with Bo & Springer - neither of which will be replaced. The pen is mostly due to counting on guys out of their usual roles with injuries to Romano & Swanson and the 2 LHP having horrid starts I think so not too worried on that front. It is improving the meh positions that will be hard.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#445266) #
Rogers Centre continues to make no sense to me.
Yesterday Muncy hit a ball 106MPH into the power alley that went 370 ft. Today Turner hit a ball 92MPH down the line that went 343 ft.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#445267) #
Falefa you're supposed to be good at SS.
John Northey - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#445268) #
I like how Rodriguez is pitching - the defense has let him down but he isn't showing any quit or frustration. Hopefully we see a lot good out of him going forward.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#445269) #
he's letting up some pretty solid contact but still yeah i agree he looks mostly good.
GabrielSyme - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#445270) #
Yariel's outing has been backwards today - didn't give up good contact in the first inning, gave up the two runs. Walked a batter, and had three balls hit over 100 mph in the second, no runs.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#445271) #
we actually have a lead in the 3rd inning after going down 2 in the first.

I'd like to think that's not a big deal but i'm pretty sure that's a rare feat for our jays.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#445272) #
had trouble getting any swings and misses tonight.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#445273) #
some nice pitches by cabrera there.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#445274) #
Siddall: "I'll be shocked if they don't go to the cutter away."

Next pitch, cutter away, ground out to end the inning. I do like having ex-catchers in the booth.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#445275) #
cabrera is pretty fun to watch when he's on.
John Northey - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#445276) #
Hooray!!!! 5 runs!!!! Finally.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#445277) #
as much i'm fine with waiting for the top of the order to stop hitting, i'd also be fine with:

* 1. 3B Clement
* 2. 2B Biggio
* 3. LF Schneider
* 4. DH Turner
* 5. CF Varsho
* 6. C Jansen
* 7. RF Springer
* 8. 1B Guerrero
* 9. SS Bichette

just to see what happens. and if it motivates and/or relaxes the springer/vlad/bo at all.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#445278) #
Amplifying what UO was saying recently, it’s remarkable how well the team has been performing offensively, once you subtract Springer, Bichette, Guerrero Jr. and Kirk — the supposed “core.”

Turner, Schneider, Jansen, Varsho, Biggio, Clement — the complementary players — are collectively doing great.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#445279) #
or maybe, looking at current year stats only.....


* 1. 2B Biggio .354obp, 110wrc+
* 2. LF Schneider .348obp, 138wrc+
* 3. CF Varsho .320obp, 137wrc+
* 4. DH Turner .398obp, 171wrc+
* 5. C Jansen .400obp, 195wrc+
* 6. 3B Clement .283obp, 107wrc+
* 7. 1B Guerrero .323obp, 97wrc+
* 8. RF Springer .303obp, 89wrc+
* 9. SS Bichette .263obp, 65wrc+




....and BARGER!
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#445280) #
SIX RUNS

Petey Baseball - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#445281) #
Re: The Jays pickups later in the season. If Cleveland ever falls out of it, the desperation by Atkins to save his job may lead him to empty the cupboard for Jose Ramirez. I am still convinced the Guardians would do it if they were given the right package.
Nigel - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#445282) #
There have been some really good ABs tonight. I have to admit that I don’t see the huge upside that the broadcasters do in Rodriquez. He looks a competent 5th starter but none of his pitches look to me good enough to get MLB hitters out consistently. They know more than me though so here’s hoping.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#445283) #
who's closing tonight? Pearson?
John Northey - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#445284) #
Yep, Pearson. Let's hope we get the good version tonight. This would really be a painful loss otherwise.
uglyone - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#445285) #
phew.

not a great inning by Nate but that was a fantastic final pitch.
Magpie - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#445286) #
none of his pitches look to me good enough to get MLB hitters out consistently.

I expect it's the depth of his repertoire, the combinations he can produce, the way he can mix it up that impresses them. He may not have the one elite pitch that would make him a lights-out one inning guy, but it's not what he's expected to become.
Nigel - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#445287) #
All true Magpie and that is, of course, how starters without elite stuff have been highly successful for generations now. He certainly has a deep repertoire of pitches so he has that going for him. There isn’t much swing and miss there (and frankly less so than the radar gun might lead you to hope) so we’ll see if he can generate soft contact on a consistent basis.
greenfrog - Monday, April 29 2024 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#445288) #
The off-season scouting reports liked Yariel as a reliever but not as a SP. We’ll see how it all plays out.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#445289) #
I think he is a lot like Buehrle was - a guy with a lot of pitches and decent control and command of them but no 'that gets them out everytime' pitch. Right now he needs to learn how to mix and match better vs major leaguers. Interesting that he has pitched to Serven once and Jansen 3 times now, but not to Kirk. Seems odd to me given Rodriguez is from Cuba and Kirk Mexico - so in theory they should speak the same language thus reducing communication issues. Kirk handles Bassitt well, 22 1/3 innings with Kirk 4.03 ERA, 8 innings with Jansen 10.12 ERA - 9 runs allowed with each of the 2 catchers despite a drastic inning difference. 2023 saw Kirk 168 innings 2.52 ERA, Jansen 21 innings 10.29 ERA, Heinemann 11 innings 7.36 ERA. Given Bassitt has to be the most challenging pitcher on the staff (7 different pitches used regularly) I'd give Kirk a shot with Rodriguez.
StephenT - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 01:24 AM EDT (#445290) #
Dan and Buck were away Monday.  I'm guessing they're taking some vacation now because of the off days coming up, plus Apple game on Friday.

Ben Shulman moved from radio to TV play-by-play.  He did fine the parts I heard.

Eric Smith did the radio play-by-play (Raptors' announcer? if I understood his Twitter bio right).  He did fine too.
Michael - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 02:52 AM EDT (#445291) #
I'm pleased that so far the Turner signing looks good. That is triply good from my pov because:

1. It makes the team better.

2. It is the player I identified as the best fit for the Jays in the offseason and was pleased when we got him.

3. It continues the front office's ability to make consistently good decisions that turn out well in free agent signings - more so than any GM I can remember in Toronto's past.

I know many of us (myself included) had some criticism for the management especially in the most recent series thread but it is good to remember what is going right / they do well.

Heck, in a very ironic way one of the things that many of us wanted the GM/president/owners to do that they haven't (signed our young core to long term deals) may end up to be a very good move not to have taken. Would we all be comfortable if Vlad was currently on a 10 year $250-300M contract? Bichette on the same? What about say a 8 year $100M contract for Manoah after 2022 when Manoah was 3rd in the CY voting? They all may end up worth that, and certainly Bo and Vlad at least are still useful players and will likely improve this year over their early small sample form, but it is much less clear than it was one or two years ago on if you'd want the long term deal for them.

Still back to 500 with a somewhat tough opening schedule and the underperformance of the top 3 in the order (and the not quite ready for season start performance of Gausman) and the injuries in the pen and to Jansen, all-in-all this isn't a bad place for the team to be overall.
scottt - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 06:28 AM EDT (#445292) #
Rodriguez has a solid 4 pitch mix with movements and different sitting speeds.
As a starter, he should have a higher ceiling than, say Stripling.
His limitation is that he might never be able to give you more than 5 innings.

scottt - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#445293) #
The Royals have  2 good hitters in Perez and Witt.
Perez has caught 18 games but has also played 1B 7 times and DH 3 times.

Pasquantino is their next best hitter with a 98 OPS+.

The Jays have 2 good hitters in Varsho and Turner. They also have 3 good hitters in Jansen, Schneider and Clement but none of these guys play everyday.

Biggio is down to a 102 OPS. Vlad is at 100.
Springer, Bichette and Kirk have been bad.

For now, they might need to "rest" the struggling guys and play the good bench pieces more.

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#445294) #
Rodriguez's issue is that he doesn't have a reliable out-pitch and really struggles when he can't start his slider in the strike zone to then have it break out of the zone. That was a big issue.

Also, IKF was really underwhelming at SS. I'd rather see Clement there spelling Bichette. Stronger arm, more athletic overall.

Other than versatility, I have yet to really see what IKF brings to the team... even his D at 3B has been more good than gold glove worthy.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#445295) #
Great call, Michael. Turner currently has a higher wRC+ (165) than he's had in any previous season. His home run swings yesterday were things of beauty: one on an offspeed pitch inside and the other on a 95 MPH fastball on the high-and-inside corner of the strike zone.

Let's hope he can stay healthy over the course of the season. One good thing about the Blue Jays' abundance of corner infielders is that Turner can mostly DH this year.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#445296) #
Updating the 3 month position player statistics (from August 4, 2023- Davis Schneider's first game):

Player PA wRC+ Slash line Baserunning
 Schneider  211  162  .266/.384/.554  -0.4
 Jansen  89  161  .254/.404/.507  -0.3
 Varsho  247  124  .239/.316/.486  0.2
 Clement  96  118  .312/.316/.462  0.7
 Turner  290  118  .272/.345/.444  -3.6
 Biggio  249  116  .251/.379/.350  0.1
 Guerrero Jr.
347
 115  .250/.343/.414  -2.6
 Springer  347  113  .261/.336/.417  0.9
 Kirk  224  86  .227/.317/.330  -2.8
 Kiermaier  176  78  .235/.280/.364  0.1
 Bichette  244  78  .233/.279/.357  -0.3
 Kiner-Falefa  196  74  .232/.291/.315  0.6

Schneider and Jansen both have excellent Statcast numbers over the period.  When they are both in the lineup, the offence has a centre- just not the one that was advertised.  Kirk, Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa (no initials please!) are all very good to excellent defenders and have been average players over the span.  Bo Bichette has been the club's best player over the last 3 years, but the last 3 months have been a struggle in every way pretty much. 

Getting Jansen and Schneider in the lineup almost every day ought to be the manager's major task.  And you don't want Turner, Guerrero Jr. and Kirk in the lineup at the same time due to base-clogging and GIDPs- this is the responsibility of both manager and GM. 

greenfrog - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#445297) #
I think Turner was dealing with an injury late last year. Otherwise his offensive numbers may have been better over than span.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#445298) #
Turner's wRC+ from the beginning of 2022 to August 3, 2023 was 124.  A little better than it has been since then, but personally I wouldn't exclude periods when a player has been injured from the calculation.  Least of all from a 39 year old. 
uglyone - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#445299) #
Bichette's struggles go that far back eh. That sucks.

His past calendar year numbers are still solid at 111wrc+ but three months of suckage is pretty scary to see, even if the three months prior were scorching hot.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#445300) #
Bichette's last 3 months includes his knee injury last year, which obviously had an impact - he was hitting 321/352/494 on July 31, but only went 254/292/402 after returning on August 19th.

Bo also doesn't seem to like cool weather - April is his worst month over his career, by a fair margin. This year looks almost identical to his dismal April 2022.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#445301) #
Justin Turner splits by month:

2023:

April 101
May 111
June 128
July 161
August 139
Sept/Oct 56

2024:

April 165

So Turner has been terrific for four of the last five regular-season months. Not sure if the effects of his injury (deep heel bruise sustained on 31 July 2023) had anything to do with his late-season performance. Obviously he hit well in August despite the injury.
Gerry - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#445302) #
Yariel Rodriguez developed some back soreness last night and is being monitored. Zach Pop is in attendance on the taxi squad just in case.

They could skip Rodriguez's next start with the off days upcoming (three in the next ten days).
dalimon5 - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#445305) #
I've been 2 days into my new lowered expectations of Vladdy...and it's sooo much more enjoyable to watch the him and the game. I don't know I feel crazy but I feel like I'm not throwing things at the tele as much.
Gerry - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#445306) #
Rodriguez has now been placed on the IL. POP is active.

Rodriguez could be back on the 15th of May. with the off days they should be OK until the 14th. So they need one start before Rodriguez could be available.

scottt - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#445307) #
Not having an out pitch doesn't really equate to relief work.
On the contrary.

Rodriguez has a full arsenal and good separation. The movement on the 4-seamer is good. The movement on the other pitches is average at best. He needs to mix his pitches to succeed, hence the starter role.

John Northey - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#445308) #
Good idea dalimon5. Just go into it expecting Vlad to be better than Willie Upshaw (103 OPS+ lifetime, peak of 136, twice in the 110s, twice got MVP votes), not as good as McGriff/Olerud/Delgado but still a decent hitter. Actually Willie Upshaw is a lot closer to Vlad if you take out 2021. 106-115-133-117-100 OPS+ thus far vs Upshaw as a regular 102-136-119-111-91-87-95. Upshaw's peak was at 26 though and done at 31. Lets hope Vlad has more success. FYI: Upshaw's 21-24 seasons were wasted with a bit of ML time - 441 PA with a 67 OPS+ (3 seasons in majors, 1 not, first was rule 5 pick).

Huh, didn't expect that when I put that together. Weird. Sure didn't expect Vlad outside of 2021 would be that close to Upshaw. As a reminder McGriff had a 134 lifetime OPS+, Delgado 138, Olerud 129 - damn did the Jays have a killer run at 1B back then with Cecil Fielder (119) forced out. I was hoping Vlad would be the start of a new run like that, but sadly it seems not to be. If he gets going so his real stats match his statcast ones then he could be, but sadly it hasn't happened. 364 xwOBA vs 314 wOBA, last year was 378 vs 340, but 2022 was 351-351, 2021 421-419, 2020 338-338, 2019 333-329 so this is just a past 2 year thing. Seems the new park has screwed his stats up or something.

Is the wOBA vs xwOBA a thing that the new park has done to our hitters? Doesn't seem to be.
  • wOBA higher: Turner 401-364, Biggio 322-296, Varsho 360-285
  • wOBA lower: Schneider 356-374, Vlad 314-364, IKF 302-347, Springer 294-336, Kirk 264-303
  • wOBA pretty much the same: Bo 256-257, Kiermaier 220-214, Clement 318-313
It does seem to be hitting a few guys hard, with Varsho being way up (he was a bit low last year 293-302 but pretty even before that). I see this as a sign that a guy should be better or worse long term, but single season (and especially single month) can have insane spreads. Btw, for wOBA only 17 Jays ever had a 400 over 502+ PA - Delgado's 471 in 2000 is the best here, Vlad's 2021 was 419, 6th best here. The worst was Alfredo Griffin in 1982 at 262 - just 21 seasons sub 300 with Varsho last year 293 being the most recent horrid year.
Gerry - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#445311) #
Mike Trout has a torn meniscus in his knee. He needs surgery.

My non-medical opinion is that he will be out for 6-8 weeks.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#445313) #
Poor Trout - if he didn't have bad luck he'd have none I swear.
Ducey - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#445314) #
He is unlucky if you ignore that he was pretty lucky to be a superstar athlete.

I see Abreu is getting sent down to work on his swing. Wonder if Bo would ever do that.
Chuck - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#445315) #
Mike Trout has a torn meniscus in his knee.

He'll be spending his 30s doing his best to get into half his team's games. I was going to liken his 30s to Griffey's, but I think they're going to be worse. He may become a DH sooner than later.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#445316) #
nice outing for Manoah tonight. lotsa swing and miss.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#445317) #
Yeah that line for Manoah looks mighty impressive.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#445318) #
I don't see how the Blue Jays can make the postseason if Springer/Bo/VGJ/Kirk have somehow morphed into 600-700 OPS guys (OBP and power outage). That can't last -- can it?
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#445320) #
If it does last, they're screwed. If they hit like they should, it'll be a playoff team. If they keep doing this, there's really no chance.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#445321) #
I’m surprised they scored at all tonight. They looked overmatched from the first pitch.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#445322) #
One thing I've noticed over the years in MLB is that young, talented teams often hit their stride a year or so earlier than people expect (like the O's in 2022 and then 2023). And that the window of contention for older, accomplished teams can close a year or so earlier than people expect (like the Phillies in 2012 playing .500 ball after a 102-win season in 2011 and then bottoming out after that).
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#445324) #
A reminder that the Blue Jays do have playoff losses in 1985 and 2015 to lesser KC clubs to avenge. It's only May, but a series victory would be something of a down-payment.
soupman - Tuesday, April 30 2024 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#445325) #
There's a lot of focus on the Jays' bats, but they're a bottom-10 team in run prevention so far - i would not have predicted that. this squad is lucky to be hovering around .500 right now.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#445326) #
Last night, Milwaukee's Abner Uribe and Tampa Bay's José Siri got into a wild fight.

Brewers manager Pat Murphy and pitcher Freddy Peralta were ejected earlier in the game for throwing at Siri.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#445327) #
Since the beginning of last year, these players have been good or better: Bichette, Varsho, Kiermaier, Kirk, Jansen, Schneider, and Clement.  These players have been average or worse: Springer, Biggio, Turner, Guerrero Jr., Kiner-Falefa.  I know it seems like a radical proposition, but there does come a point where you have to believe in what the players are actually doing on the field rather than your hopes about what they could do. This means keeping more of the ones who have been good or better in the starting lineup more often than the ones who have been average or worse.  It doesn't have to be a straight line- give Guerrero Jr. 575 PAs if you must; have Biggio and Kiner-Falefa share the third base position, give Turner a couple of days off a week and a day at first base.  But get Jansen in the lineup 6 games out of 7 split equally between DH and C, and Clement regular work at second base, with some for Biggio there too.  While you're at it, hit Guerrero Jr. sixth. 

You can either believe your marketing or what the players do on the field.  I suggest the latter.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#445328) #
I too cannot give the Jays a lot of excuses this year. They need to perform. So far the schedule is 17 road games and 14 home games. I don't know the road/home results.

A 15-16 record is ok. a 13-17 or worse is a bad record for a 30 game stretch. I fully expect good, ok and bad months for every 88-92 win contender. I expect the Jays to be at that level.
James W - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#445329) #
8-6 at home. 7-10 on the road. This info was easily attainable on 4 of the 6 sites I searched. Oddly, Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference were the 2 sites where it was not immediately on the standings page.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#445330) #
Baseball-Reference does have it on their standings page

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2024-standings.shtml
bpoz - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#445331) #
Thanks for the home/road record. I usually go through the schedule and calculate it game by game. Also the same method for 1 run W/L. 1 run game outcomes hopefully even out. Strength of competition also. Minnesota is on a 9W streak.

Our Jays have not had any of the above factors in their favor yet.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#445332) #
The Jays being .500 with the way they are playing is either a good sign or an overachievement that will correct itself as the season goes on. Not sure which yet. I’d like to think it’s the former but can’t help but feel some 2017 vibes with a core on its last legs that didn’t get the help it needed in the winter.

John Northey - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#445333) #
Jays Pythagorean W-L: 13-18 - so they are doing better than that for once (often they do worse - it was the big bugaboo for the old JPR teams, on paper they were 90 win teams, but in reality they never reached 89 - 2008 was especially painful, P WL was 93-69 vs real 86-76 while Tampa was 97-65 with P 92-70 so in a fair world the Jays would've broke their no playoff streak then with Cito as manager and the Rays would've been just outside).

In 9 innings the Jays are 15-14, 0-1 in extras, 0-1 in shortened. 3-4 in 1 run games, 3-7 in blowouts. All from Baseball Reference Jays Schedule page
Chuck - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#445334) #
A scuffling Biggio gets the day off against a RHP. IKF maintains his "regular player" status, presumably for 15 million reasons. And Vogelbach, on a 10-hit 100 AB pace, makes a return.

Speaking of which, what is the news on Votto? I wonder if (a) he'll ever make a convincing enough argument to push his way onto this roster and (b) he'd serve any greater role than Vogelbach does now. Even some kind of injury would see others waiting in line getting playing time first, I would think.

greenfrog - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#445335) #
Is there a sound basis at this point to believe that Vogelbach is a better hitter than Horwitz? I guess the concern is that Horwitz wouldn’t get regular playing time in the majors, at least at the moment.

If Vladdy is now essentially a 1-2 WAR player, you would think Horwitz could match that at a small fraction of the cost.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#445336) #
It should be noted that the Jays went with Springer in CF, Biggio in RF, and IKF at 2B vs. a lefty and the defense did not spontaneously combust. IKF played some CF last year so they could have kept Springer and Biggio in their usual spots, but it's good to see that the Jays were willing to try to trade some D for some offense. Although the Royals broadcast thought that the Jays did them a favour by taking out their lefties because of Ragans' splits. That's probably why Biggio stayed in and Varsho came out. Two of the next 4 SP the Jays face are LHP (Corbin and Gore), so Springer might play CF again.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#445337) #
No one can look at the top 4 hitters of today's lineup and accuse John Schneider of riding the hot hands.  There's that. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#445338) #
You could platoon Horwitz and Turner at first base, and that would make space easily for Jansen to get more DH time.  In my opinion, the reasonably expectation if Guerrero Jr. left would be a modest improvement, at least in 2024- with better defence and baserunning  the key.  And the $16M or so could be put to good use. 
Nigel - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#445339) #
Posted without comment - Schneider in his presser today said that they are considering Manoah for Rodriquez's next start.

Its hard to dispute that trading Vladdy makes financial sense (at least). There's now an overwhelming body of evidence that, outside of the minor league park inflated numbers, he isn't an elite MLB bat. But only a bulletproof GM would risk trading him now. The return is almost certain to be modest which has all sorts of PR issues for the casual fan and what if (albeit unlikely) Vladdy turns into the Vladdy that his minor league numbers suggest? I don't see Atkins having that sort of job security.
Ducey - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#445340) #
A smart (and as you say secure) GM would trade Vlad once he heats up. If he can put together 2 or 3 good months until the trade deadline, he is likely to be worth much more than he is now.

But I cant see Atkins making that move. I would expect a house cleaning in the winter and the new GM (insert name of 34 yr old Ivy league graduate) to make the bold moves.

I'm still baffled that the hitting coach has his job. They have brought in like 4 people (Mattingly, the guy from AAA, Edwin, even Bo's dad this week) to help. They probably have assorted math/ video nerds too.

If my boss had to bring in multiple people to do my job, it would not be my job anymore.
Glevin - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#445341) #
"IKF maintains his "regular player" status, presumably for 15 million reasons. "

He's been the Jays third best regular. This conspiracy stuff is just silly. Contract wasn't good but he deserves to be playing fairly regularly right now.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#445342) #
I am certain the promotional dollars sunk into Guerrero Jr. would prevent the Jays (Shapiro) from greenlighting a trade - especially during the season.

There aren't many other marketable players with Bo preferring the low-key lifestyle... unless you go with Clement and Schneider -- likeable but they're not established enough. Berrios?

Also, to Mike's point, Manager Schneider's refusal to move Springer and Vladdy ensures those two are getting unnecessary extra ABs per game... and ensuring most first innings are scoreless.
Joe - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#445343) #
Pet peeve, not directed at anybody in particular: Rodriguez is spelt with a 'g', not a 'q'. :)
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#445344) #
"You can either believe your marketing or what the players do on the field. I suggest the latter."

Amen Mike.


Vlad and Springer get all the marketing play...are they really that marketable though? I don't think trading Vlad would be prevented because of his "marketability." Who's going to have an issue with that, Uncrustables and A&W?

Greenfrog, it might make sense to keep Horwitz in the minors to pad his stats before a potential trade which would include him. Otherwise I don't see any benefit to having him in AAA while Vogelbach is here. *I don't think Vogelbach is getting $2,000,000 as reported...he probably made a deal with the FO to stay on for a much lesser amount.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#445345) #
This urge to trade or dump Vlad is funny. He has last year and this shown in the underlying numbers that he is still a solid 120+ OPS+ guy who is seeing lots of bad luck - not the 150 we dreamed of, but basically a John Olerud type, and like Olerud he is probably going to be ran out of town for not living up to one amazing season. Olerud was a consistent 110-125 OPS+ guy here with one 'holy crap' year at age 24 (186 OPS+ to lead the league) He ended up being better once he left (128 OPS+ post Toronto with a 163 in there). Unlike Olerud we don't have a Delgado pounded on the door to take over. I like Horwitz but he ain't Carlos.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#445346) #
I agree with John. I think Vlad's season has been a pretty good but unlucky first three weeks, then a genuine slump for a week or two. He's out of his slump now, and for the last week he's been hitting the ball extremely hard. It would be nice to see him elevate a few more of the balls he's squaring up, but I think that will come.
Michael - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#445347) #
Yeah, Vlad no loner looks like a HOF path or even necessarily another top MVP candidate season, but he's still a good player. By advanced metrics he was unlucky in his results last year and probably performed a bit less than you'd expect but that was still a 117 OPS+. This year in small sample size he's at 98 OPS+, but I think you'd expect that he should be somewhere in the 120 OPS+ +/- 10 points. That's not the 150-200 OPS+ we all wanted post the 167 in 2021, but it is still a useful player.

But he's also still only 25 years old. AKA nearly 1 year younger than Davis Schneider and more than 2 years younger than Spencer Horwitz and 3 years younger than Ernie Clement and even 1 month younger than Addison Barger.

So all the he is who he is, useful to remember he's younger than the "young" players on the team.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#445348) #
he's younger than the "young" players on the team.

He's not the youngest player on the team anymore! At least as long as Addison Barger is around.

We do tend to discount a good chunk of what Guerrero did in 2021 because of Dunedin and Buffalo - I made that very point back in 2022. But... a whole lot of other Blue Jays were playing in Dunedin and Buffalo, and they didn't turn into world beaters. Bo Bichette probably hit a little better at the Rogers Centre that year.

T'is a puzzlement.
Eephus - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#445349) #
Watching this Bassitt/Lugo matchup is akin to that famous meme of the two Spider-Mans pointing at each other.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#445350) #
John, where do you see the urge to dump or trade Vlad? A few posters have pointed out that the team can save money and get similar value by bringing up Horwitz. Hardly an endorsement to run him out of town and more an acknowledgement of his value to the team so far.
Eephus - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#445351) #
Any reason not to put Perez on with an open base?
Eephus - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#445352) #
I hate being right sometimes.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#445353) #
I predicted Schneider would be fired before the end of this series. Players are defeated.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#445354) #
This team feels like its living Groundhog Day. This has to be the 15th time already that this game script has played out.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#445355) #
Is there a reason not to pinch-hit Biggio for IKF there? Better on-base skills, better hitter overall, platoon advantage.
James W - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#445356) #
Well, unless he gets fired in the bottom of the 9th, he'll have defied your prediction. I'll agree that this isn't at all fun to watch.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#445357) #
Schneider was evidently saving Biggio to run for Vogelbach in a 5 run game in the ninth. Or else it was the Analytics Dept. that suggested it. Cue Flip Wilson and "the devil made me do it".
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#445358) #
There's nothing Schneider can do it seems to turn these guys around. There's no downside to switching managers only upside.

The players should be held accountable more...this manager keeps riding them day in and out hoping *not managing* for change. Keeping productive players out while you hope the top 3 then it around doesn't help.
James W - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#445359) #
Maybe they're waiting for the Leafs season to end, and the inevitable firings there, and they'll just try to sneak the firings of Schneider, Atkins, and whoever else under that news?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#445360) #
What I would love is for Atkins to step up and make a statement trade to shake these boys up. Trade prospects for help. Trade vets for prospects. Trade same value for same value. Whichever path, do something to challenge the team if there is any chance of salvaging this season and ridiculous pitching staff.

This is more than a month of this...
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#445361) #
"Well, unless he gets fired in the bottom of the 9th, he'll have defied your prediction. I'll agree that this isn't at all fun to watch."

I suppose I technically meant to say "before the start of the next series." You know what happens on off days...
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#445362) #
Chris Bassit after the game to reporters:

"I am beyond frustrated about what the hell is going on."

"I've got a 5-5 era and I believe like I've had one bad game. I am pissed. I'm just pissed."

"Gaus has a 5-5 era...we played a really hard schedule and haven't played our best."

"A lot of guys are frustrated with where we are at right now."

dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#445363) #
John Schneider:

"Lugo is good. That's two good pitchers."

"Going forward we will get better. We are confident we will."

"A couple of ground balls went through otherwise things could have looked different."

Roll eyes
uglyone - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#445364) #

John Schneider on the fanbase being upset with the offense: It's May 1st, it will come, we will be better. I would hope our fans trust the fact that we have really good players and that they understand they're not performing up to their expectations. #BlueJays

— Alex Seixeiro (@AlexSeixeiro) May 1, 2024
Nigel - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#445365) #
On a RS/Game basis the Jays are 28th in MLB ahead of only the A's and the White Sox. That really means they are the worst team in baseball of the teams that are trying this year and behind one or two others that aren't even trying. That's hard to do.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#445366) #
The sad thing is that quote from Schneider is his version of pointing fingers at his players. This dude is so afraid of holding his guys accountable because Montoyo lost the room after he called out Vladdy and Teo publicly.

You list your house for 1,000,000 in a neighbourhood where all homes are selling for 1,000,000 or more. You only get offers for 750,000 to 800,000 while other houses no better than yours field offers at 1,000,000 or higher.

Your agent tells you "I hope my client understands that he has a really nice home and it should sell for more."

Petey Baseball - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#445367) #
I also think the American League is much more balanced this year. With the exception of the White Sox, every team is decent to very good. There aren't soft spots on the schedule. The Royals flat out played the Jays in seven games. The Twins and Tigers are similar. I see them both as .500 teams when all is said and done.

This team is going to have to play much, much, better to even get close to the wildcard.The question is, how long will they wait to make a move to improve the offense...or if they are two games below. .500 and ten games out of first a month from now do they think about blowing this thing up?
Nigel - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#445368) #
This is a serious question - what levers do they even have available to them to improve the offence? You need one of a surplus of MLB talent at a position, prospects or ability to take on salary - I don't see the Jays as having much of any at the current time. Maybe the Jays have a leverage reliever to spare but I'm not sure that would buy you much. Unless they decide to blow this up, I think this what you see if what you get.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#445369) #
There are lots of levers.

Get an elite average guy like Arraez.

Trade Kikuchi for a hitter in the Astros.

Trade all of your prospects for Arenado.

Must think outside the box.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#445370) #
A couple of ground balls went through

Well, yeah. The infield was playing in. They were doing this in the sixth inning of a scoreless game. With the possible reincarnation of Honus Wagner at the plate.

I don't quite get it. If Bichette's in normal position - the runs scores, but you've got two outs and the bases are empty. So you're down 1-0 in the sixth inning. That's so terrible? (Well, the way this crew is hitting, maybe it is.)
Nigel - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#445371) #
Sure, you can do a "rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic" trade like trading a starter for a bat but then you are simply robbing Peter to pay Paul. There's no indication that the Jays would be able to take on a salary like Arranado's etc. given their current payroll and luxury tax implications. I'm not arguing that there isn't a clear reason to try something, just that I don't see the pathway to doing that.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#445372) #
In this past offseason they had the nearly $30m that they chose to spend this year on KK, IKF, Rodriguez (apologies Joe, I was one of the offenders:)). There was an opportunity to invest in this roster by taking on a significant contract or emptying the bucket of prospects. They chose not to do so. They chose simply to run it back. What we are watching is the not unexpected byproduct of that decision. If they didn't think the core of this club was worth investing in in the offseason why would they reach a different conclusion now?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#445373) #
You're approaching it like they only have two options (fix in the off season or don't). They have lots of options. If you think Vlad is a 2 WAR player or less what is the downside of trading his two years for the balance of this year of another player like Goldschmidt? He's not having a great start either but you get the idea.

If Bo isn't going to resign here and your core is going to struggle mightily to make the post season this year then why not rob Peter to pay Paul in the hopes that the results are better? Sometimes it's not about the parts but the sum of those parts which is what "robbing Peter to pay Paul," is a reference to. It's only ever a wasteful endeavour when it doesn't work out and that likelihood is less imho than this offense "coming around."
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#445374) #
Remember the overriding objective for Blue Jays ownership: be competitive enough to attract stadium attendees and TV/online viewers. Better to win 80-88 games a year and sometimes make the postseason, than to often suck but occasionally field a stellar team for a couple of years. That’s why the front office decided to tread water in the off-season (as opposed to, say, trading a slew of their better prospects for Soto).
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#445375) #
I don't agree with this sentiment. I believe they want to win the World Series and simply are not smart enough to figure out how but certainly stubborn enough to stay the course.

In any case they are on pace to fail either way.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#445376) #
It’s why Shapiro scolded AA for trading so many prospects in 2015. AA was being reckless, in their opinion.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#445377) #
Nigel they could shake up the hitting staff perhaps relieving Guillermo Martinez and Don Mattingly of their jobs, bring up Martinez and Horowitz, shake up the batting order and perhaps in early June explore trading a starter or a couple prospects for a bat. Unlikely but perhaps the Astros give up on Jose Abreu and the Jays make room for him by cutting loose Vogelbach. It seems like Jays prepared for this by signing Votto during Spring Training, but it is mysteriously silent on that front. Perhaps they get Votto back by mid June and along with a trade and a couple call ups, they can out together a good offense. One things for certain, they are in a load of trouble right now.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#445378) #
I think I'm not doing a good job of explaining my question/point:) I totally agree that they could/should do something to "shake things up" - from the more minor like change the hitting coaches; bring up Martinez and/or Horowitz, etc. to the more significant like fire the manager; trade Vladdy; trade Bo, etc. But none of those things are likely to result, on their face, in a net talent upgrade on the major league roster. In order to improve the overall talent you need to be trading prospects for MLB talent; taking on major league talent that is overpaid by taking on salary with minimal prospects going out the door; or trading something surplus for something needed. None of those avenues look available to the Jays to me. So, by all means, engage in minor or significant shake ups. Those shake ups might get the talent on hand to play better. That's entirely possible. But I don't see a net talent upgrade coming.
Gerry - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#445379) #
A few points:

Traditionally GM's get to the 40 game mark before deciding to make major changes.

The new playoff format means most sub 500 teams are just a ten to fifteen game hot streak from getting back into contention.

The Jays could call up Orelvis or Horwitz but whose at bats are they going to take? The manager isn't going to sit Springer, Vladdy or Bo. Orelvis is not going to take Schneider at-bats at second, and the manager doesn't want to sit the GM's big off season signing IKF. So Schneider could go permanently to left and Orelvis to second when IKF is not there. You could put IKF semi permanently at third and give Biggio's and Clement's AB's to Orelvis (with Barger going down). But Orelvis would have to hit the ground running.

You could drop Vogelbach and bring in Horwitz but how many AB's will he get? I don't think either Vladdy or Turner will sit more than they do now. Vogelbach plays once a week so I don't see a difference there.

This team depends on the top of the order getting going, that's the biggest thing.

The whole situation puts fans in a tough spot. Yes I would like the Jays to get hot and win more. But if they get their winning percentage above 500 and within playoff range, the GM, fearing for his job, will trade any prospect he can to make the team better. If the team then misses the playoffs you have a non contender with a barren farm system. You could hope they pull an Arizona and get all the way to the WS but is that realistic?

I think my low opinion of the GM means I find it hard to get optimistic about any scenario.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#445380) #
"In order to improve the overall talent you need to be trading prospects for MLB talent"

Why can't you trade MLB talent for MLB talent or trade MLB talent for minor league talent that you move to your MLB roster?

"taking on major league talent that is overpaid by taking on salary with minimal prospects going out the door"

Why does the major league talent coming back have to be overpaid? Why can't you trade maximum prospects instead of minimal prospects to get major league talent back?

"or trading something surplus for something needed. None of those avenues look available to the Jays to me." Jays can trade from surplus of pitching. They can trade from surplus of bullpen. They can trade from prospects. They can take on bad contracts. I just gave you four different avenues other than doing nothing.

"So, by all means, engage in minor or significant shake ups. Those shake ups might get the talent on hand to play better. That's entirely possible. But I don't see a net talent upgrade coming."

Again, you're working with the assumption that you need an upgrade on Vlad, Bo and Springer's career numbers. These guys are not performing like that right now. You can bring in three replacement level guys or 3 above average prospects and you will get the same performance as what these three are giving right now.

Baseball isn't a rotisserie league or cumulative race to highest talent level. It's a race to most wins. Evidently it appears that more talent = more wins in your opinion. That is not always the case. I think any strong team needs to be balanced with good baserunning, defense, offense and of course pitching. This team has some of the worst offense in baseball this year and below average from their top three for quite awhile. How can you be so insistent that there is no avenue for net gain when the current level of achievement is so low????
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#445381) #
You know what trade has worked out well so far? Anthopoulos's trade of Vaughn Grissom for Chris Sale.

In 2024 Sale is 3-1, 3.44 ERA, 10.31 K and 1.72 BB per 9IP, average FB velo 95 MPH. Can he stay healthy? Obviously that is a big question mark. But the early returns are good.

Anthopoulos is a creative and resourceful GM. As I've said before, he was a talented but young GM during his tenure in Toronto. With his experience in LA and Atlanta, he became a more seasoned one (he's still only 46).
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#445382) #
I think Gerry is spot on.

And one of the issues with this club is that there still aren't many prospects of interest for other clubs. Atkins is not buying his way out of this with prospects... Orelvis, sure. Maybe Roden. Barger? The four best arms are injured. Nimmala is sinking fast and possibly headed for Rookie ball on the weekend. No one else is coming close to headlining a package.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#445383) #
A statement most people also made at the time and a statement nobody would disagree with. All good things come to an end as they say.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#445384) #
Right now this team is a lot like the 1990 Jays - a team with lots of very good players who are nearing the end of their time here (or so it seems) and the question becomes will they retool ala how that team did in the 90/91 offseason then go on to glory or will they flop down and be more like the post 1993 team which didn't see what was coming until the freight train hit it in mid 1995?

Back then we had a HOF GM running the team, about to do what would get him into the HOF. Few remember how many were frustrated with him in 1990. Sadly today all GM's are too smart to trade a 22 year old Roberto Alomar with a solid middle of the order bat in Carter for 2 guys near free agency. IE: Bo & Vlad for a current star infielder and a middle of the order bat. Heck, who has that who'd be dumb enough to trade it? The Angels are dumb enough - but I don't see anything much worth trading for. Same with the Marlins (youngest hitter on their team is Otto Lopez at 25 - ugh, bad and old team). Can't see Washington being in that dumb category - giving up 23 year old CJ Abrams (184 OPS+ so far at SS, 99 lifetime over 1 1/2 seasons) and 30 year old Jesse Winker lets say.

You get the idea - a 'holy crap' trade just isn't there. Teams are too risk adverse now and not as dumb when it comes to years of control and age of a player as they used to be. There also isn't a John Olerud and Manuel Lee sitting in the wings to take over this time (sorry Horwitz & Clement - you might equal a Lee but not an Olerud). So what do they do? Odds are stick with what is here and hope some kids emerge as stars before Vlad & Bo leave as free agents after 2026.

Possible stars - Barger, Orelvis, Schneider, Kirk is still just 25, Manuel Beltre they hoped would be but isn't showing signs at age 20 in low A (236/333/306), and that's about it for guys with any shot at being a star here in 2026. Nimmala at 18 and with a 539 OPS in low A could emerge but I'll believe it when I see it.

A bit depressing but the team has the cash if it wan't to spend it, they could sign Soto next winter if the Yankees don't lock him up first - he'll go to the most money, and best comfort level - if he finds NY too much (doesn't seem like it) that'd help, but odds are against that. If Manoah comes back to his 2022 form then the team is in a lot better shape to look at stuff like that, but it would be putting a TON of eggs in one basket.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#445385) #
FYI: FanGraphs thinks the Jays should offer Bo 7 years/$151 million - I suspect Bo's agent would laugh the Jays out of the room on that offer. No way he takes under $200 mil over however many years pre-free agency.
Mike D - Wednesday, May 01 2024 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#445386) #
I’m frustrated as a fan, but I am also genuinely curious from an academic perspective as to how and why the team went from a franchise-changing pursuit of Ohtani to an offseason not aimed at getting better, younger, more balanced, cheaper, more prospect-rich, higher-upside…just nothing at all. An unquestionable consensus D-grade or worse offseason.

And as has often been the case with this front office, complacency fundamentally misunderstands this market and its current sentiment.



John Northey - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#445387) #
I think the problem was after Ohtani signed and Soto was gone there wasn't anything worth chasing.
Eephus - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#445388) #
“I think the problem was after Ohtani signed and Soto was gone there wasn't anything worth chasing”

What worries me more is that after that happened, they were out of ideas. Big or small.

Now we’ve seen the exact same thing this season from last that barely works carrying into another season. No general manager should ever listen to the Joe Schmo fans ever, or even us really… but geez come on it’s so obvious this doesn’t work.


Also please Votto get healthy. Not a saviour… but a good story would help (and fuel my particular rooting interests)

greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 07:18 AM EDT (#445390) #
how and why the team went from a franchise-changing pursuit of Ohtani

I think it's straightforward. Ohtani was a Hail Mary pass. The front office failed to complete the pass, and there weren't any good options remaining at that point. The free agent class was weak, payroll was already high, and other teams didn't highly covet the Blue Jays prospects (the FO was understandably reluctant to trade their few remaining good prospects in any event).
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#445391) #
Jeff Passan lists VGJ as one of five players who would like a do-over in 2024:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: Every player is entitled to a bad month. It's just that Guerrero has had a lot of bad months. Since his MVP-caliber 2021 season, he has made a pair of All-Star teams and hit plenty of home runs. But how much success has there really been? He's 0-for-3 in playoff series. His consistency is AWOL. He's 25, one year from free agency. Guerrero might still hit the ball harder than just about anyone on the planet, but at some point, exit velocity is just a number that isn't translating into anything that matters.
bpoz - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#445392) #
I don't know what the problem is with the Jays. This post will be sincere because I try to be sincere. But I am probably wrong in my thinking.

Most posts in this thread by Bauxites seem intelligent. The goal of my post is not to be that. May 2023 last season was excruciating painful. I wont give details. However I am superstitious So I fear May 2024. Instead of just believing a wise Bauxite saying "nobody knows anything in baseball" I tried to do the opposite and think. So I checked the May 2024 schedule and it seems the competition will be weaker.
92-93 - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#445393) #
It may take a few years till we hear a rumour about what the Padres wanted for Soto, but it's hard to imagine the Jays wouldn't be much better off today had they given in to the demands. Perhaps that will change, but you can certainly build packages around Bichette, Manoah, Tiedemann, Martinez etc. that would equal what the Yankees parted with.

#ToTheCore
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#445394) #
I am happy to see some expectations coming back down to earth for guys like Vladdy. Amen, Greenfrog for posting that quote from Passan.

There was definitely things that this FO could have done this off season but to me it is clear they are not creative or outside the box thinkers. If you're not willing to break up a strong core based on analytics in an effort to try to improve then it's fitting that you're tied down to that core like an anchor to a rock when they don't perform. We're all a bit guilty of putting so much of last year's struggles simply on Chapman as if he was the main issue.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#445395) #
Here's an effort to unravel the mystery of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  There's some good news at the end, so please bear with it.  

Vlad's home environment has, visibly changed a couple of times during his career so far- in 2021 with the pandemic-related moves and after the renovations post-2022 with a less favourable hitting environment.  Here are some highlights from his annual home splits from 2019 to 2024.  The year-by-year wRC+: 81, 121, 189, 140, 99, 120.  The year-by-year HR/fly rate: 8%, 19%, 34%, 22%, 11%, 7%.  The year-by-year IsoP: .130, .216, .371, .238, .153, .105.  It seems clear that Vlad Jr. both had a significant power boost at home in 2021 from the minor league parks, and a significant loss in power after the stadium changes.  Now let's look at the away lines, where environments have not changed. I will spend more time there. 

Here are the highlights of his annual away splits:

  • year-by year wRC+ much more stable: 129, 99, 143, 126, 137, 90, but he did have his best away year in 2021 (more on that below)
  • year-by year HR/fly % very stable: 16, 16, 17, 19, 17, 14. his HR/fly rate on the road in 2021 was entirely consistent with his record over his career and was merely good
  • year-by-year GB/FB rate: 1.47, 2.00, 1.16, 1.86, 1.56, 1.64, he hit by far the fewest ground balls on the road in 2021
  • year-by year LD rate: 20, 17, 21, 19, 19, 18, the most line-drives on the road were in 2021
  • year-by year pop-up rate: 10, 4, 6, 11, 16, 14 the pop-up rate on the road in 2021 was excellent- very low
I think that what happened in 2021 is somewhat relevant to where he is today, but as a way forward.  What he did on the road in 2021 ought to be his target for everywhere now.  Aiming to be like Ted Williams.  Flat-plane with slight lift.  Few pop-ups and many line-drives.  Fewer ground-balls.  And don't try to kill it, rather try to square it up.  I think that if he talks to Matt Hague, there is the possibility of getting back to it, and being a very good player again.  He will however have to mature and not let his ego get in the way.  One of the things about 2021 was that he was hitting all those home runs on the road and so it might have been easier to take a restrained and disciplined approach on the road.  He needs to do that everywhere now, without the glory that accompanies being closed to 50 home runs in a year. 
Mike Green - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#445396) #
One of the things about 2021 was that he was hitting all those home runs on the road

Inevitable brain cramp.  In 2021, he was hitting all those home runs at home (31 to be exact). 
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#445397) #
Maybe the team should hire a few more VPs of Hitting Strategy or something.
John Northey - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#445398) #
Great analysis of Vlad there Mike Green - hadn't thought of digging into some underlying numbers on the road to see but clearly he is a 120-140 OPS+ hitter all else being equal based on that. A very solid, John Olerud type hitter. Just one who had a freak show year, ala Olerud, which gave crazy expectations going forward. Biggest difference, as I said earlier, is we had Delgado in the wings waiting for his shot then vs today when we have Horwitz (not a bad player, but odds are he would be more an Overbay type - 106 lifetime OPS+, 125 peak, a 1-3 WAR guy).
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#445399) #
plausible best possible lineup using Past Calendar Year Stats:

* 1. 2B Biggio 373pa, .363obp, 114wrc+
* 2. LF Schneider 218pa, .376obp, 156wrc+
* 3. DH Turner 604pa, .348obp, 125wrc+
* 4. C Jansen 270pa, .333obp, 138wrc+
* 5. 3B Clement 109pa, .333obp, 123wrc+
* 6. 1B Guerrero 690pa, .335obp, 110wrc+
* 7. RF Springer 695pa, .329obp, 106wrc+
* 8. SS Bichette 591pa, .315obp, 104wrc+
* 9. CF Varsho 569pa, .291obp, 98wrc+

* X. PH Vogelbach 278pa, .313obp, 97wrc+
* X. OF Kiermaier 387pa, .311obp, 95wrc+
* X. IF Falefa 397pa, .318obp, 94wrc+
* X. C Kirk 420pa, .310obp, 83wrc+
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#445400) #
For what it's worth, some podcasters with connections to the Blue Jays players and coach have said that this year John Schneider is responsible and makes all decisions without higher ups overriding him. They only provide him the info and that's it. Said podcasters also claim that none of the players listen to the hitting coach. They all work with a personal hitting coach year round and give little credence to team's hitting coach. This is a league wide reality. "The Major" Sean Casey also said as much last year after leaving the Yankees. Something to the effect of "Mike Stanton, all of these guys have their own coaches they've been working with for years...I couldn't really sway them." In Daulton Varsho's case it's his dad. Same thing with Bo.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#445401) #
Olerud was a great fielding first baseman, didn't hit into too many double plays nor did he make very many baserunning errors (truth be told, I cannot remember a single one).  So, he averaged 5 WAR/season between age 28 and 33. And he was very durable during that period.  I think Guerrero Jr. will have a tough time doing that, but if he can accept himself on what he is as a hitter, he still can be a very good player and maybe a better hitter than Olerud was. 
Nigel - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#445402) #
Subjectively, the thing I remember about Vladdy and 2021 in the minor league parks (particularly Dunedin) is that he would hit what seemed like medium deep fly balls to right and right center and the combination of the wind and park dimensions turned them into HRs or XBHs. I've always thought that Vladdy is at his best when he isn't trying to pull the ball which lauch angle to LF. Instead, he's better letting the ball travel (adding to his patience) and hitting the ball hard to RF. I think the whole 2021 was a "virtuous circle" for his hitting. What he was being uniquely rewarded for also played exactly into his best hitting approach. He might be uniquely suited to playing for the Yankees and now punished for what feels like a wind tunnel experience in RF that has been created in his remodeled home park.
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#445403) #
I don't know how anyone let it happen but it's simply true that vlad's effortful swing is much much uglier than the sweet stroke he had as a prospect.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#445404) #
I agree with that observation. I wonder if it's at least partly due to Vladdy compensating for an injury or injuries.
mathesond - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#445405) #
This is what happens when upper management no longer gets down on their knees every morning to thank AA for signing Vlad.
Ducey - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#445406) #
My guess is that if exit velocities were not a thing, that Vlad would be a much better hitter.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#445407) #
Might have been better to skip the ASG home run derbies as well.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#445408) #
For his career, Vlad has posted the following lines in ballparks where he has had at least 95 PAs (chosen so I got Dunedin and Buffalo):

Baltimore: .342/.387/.537
Boston: .336/.421/.592
Buffalo: .322/.398/.656
Dunedin: .410/.521/.897
Tampa: .244/.333/.395
Toronto: .258/.330/.445

Clearly he needs to stay out of cities that begin with T.


Katie - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#445409) #
FYI: FanGraphs thinks the Jays should offer Bo 7 years/$151 million - I suspect Bo's agent would laugh the Jays out of the room on that offer. No way he takes under $200 mil over however many years pre-free agency.

Completely agree.

It is worth noting that the author acknowledges it will take much more than that to sign Bo and that the author says they would pay more than that to sign Bo for the bulk of his career. As would I. I don't know if I'd pay what it would take to sign Bo, however, as I suspect that forgoing free agency may be prohibitively expensive for him, given that he'll certainly do quite well on the open market.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#445410) #
Incidentally, when Vladdy faces the Rays in the RC, he hits them well.  Hmm. 
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#445411) #
Olerud also struggled in Tampa (747 OPS). He hit well at the Rogers Centre, though (868 OPS, slightly higher than his 863 career OPS).
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#445413) #
Past calendar year WAR:

* 1. Varsho 3.2
* 2. Jansen 2.6
* ​3. Bichette 2.5
* 4. Schneider 2.3
* 5. Kiermaier 2.3
* 6. Springer 2.3
* 7. Kirk 1.9
* 8. Biggio 1.7
* 9. Turner 1.7
* 10. Falefa 1.4
* 11. Clement 1.0
* 12. Guerrero 0.8
* 13. Vogelbach -0.2



Past calendar year WAR/650pa:

* 1. Schneider 6.9
* 2. Jansen 6.3
* 3. Clement 6.0
* 4. Kiermaier 3.9
* 5. Varsho 3.7
* 6. Biggio 3.0
* 7. Kirk 2.9
* 8. Bichette 2.7
* 9. Falefa 2.3
* 10. Springer 2.2
* 11. Turner 1.8
* 12. Guerrero 0.8
* 13. Vogelbach -0.5
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#445414) #
Kinda makes me wish Davis Schneider had started both games in the WC series against Minnesota.

Incidentally (or perhaps not), Schneider's wRC+ this year is 119 and Merrifield's is 81.
John Northey - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#445415) #
I figured Vlad would do well in Boston. FYI: in Yankee Stadium III he has hit 272/333/576. Regardless of PA his 1000 OPS and above parks are (declining OPS) SF, Dunedin, LAD, Colorado, Buffalo, Boston, St Louis. 900s are KC, Baltimore, Milwaukee, NYY. His nightmares (sub 500) are Pittsburgh, Texas, and Washington. Ugly (in the 500's) are Philly, Houston, Minnesota, Miami.

So when he hits free agency if his goal is the HOF (and I'm pretty sure it is) places like Baltimore, SF, LAD, Colorado will appeal strongly. Heaven knows Colorado could use him (team OPS+ of 84 right now, OPS of 673). Of course he could choose to stay here and try to be a one team guy too. We'll see after 2025. No rush.

For my comparisons I was just focused on hitting, not defense or baserunning. Olerud was great on defense, Overbay very solid as is Horwitz, yet Vlad got a Gold Glove at 23 (ASG age 22, 23, 24), Olerud at 31/33/34 (2 ASG age 24, 32), Overbay none (no ASG either). Go figure. Awards aren't always right (to put it mildly) but still useful to get an idea of a guys career beyond the raw stats.
John Northey - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#445416) #
So who else is in favor of dumping Vogelbach and calling up Horwitz to cover PH/backup DH/1B? Already on the 40 man so no extra cost to the Jays. The $2 mil blown on Vogelbach is lost, time to just accept it and move on. At least Horwitz can play defense, can even be at 2B/LF in an emergency (571 innings in LF, 59 at 2B in the minors). At 26 he ain't getting any younger and shouldn't be babied like Orelvis (needs more AAA time, more defensive reps at 2B, would not be good to be on the bench not playing).
92-93 - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#445417) #
There is little reason to call up Horwitz to sit on the bench. He will get his shot via injury. Best to keep his bat fresh.

The Orioles called up Heston Kjerstad, and then gave him one start in a week before yesterday. He had a 1.176 OPS in AAA.
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#445418) #
Horwitz is 26. Not a guy that needs milb time i don't think. Fine to have a guy that age in a bench role.
Ducey - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#445419) #
The manager is not playing Voggy regularly and wont play Horwitz either.

If Horwitz could develop some power, he becomes a high end prospect. I'd rather he work on that in AAA as opposed to giving high fives and neck massages on the Jays bench.
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#445421) #
I don't know that expecting significant development from a 26.5yr old is reasonable tbh.
SK in NJ - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#445422) #
The problem with adding to the 2024 team is that the Jays don't have much (or anything) in the way of expendable prospects that other teams would covet, and the big league team isn't good enough to justify trading the few top prospects they do actually have (Orelvis, mainly, and he might be it since Tiedemann is hurt). I'm not sure there is a correct answer other than maybe just plugging Martinez at 2B and Schneider in LF full time, and hoping for the best.

If the season feels like it's slipping in the next few months, then I think the best course would be to move both Vlad/Bo, and maximize trade value on impending FA's and possibly 2025 free agents as well (ex. Romano). Is there a path to a quick retool where the team could be competitive again by 2026? Tough to say, but I think that's a better path to take than the alternative.

Or, if the mandate is to try to field a competitive team in 2025, then still trade Vlad/Bo along with the impending FA's, and hope next season with a big FA signing or two could put them back into contention.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#445423) #
I think the front office is likely to stay the course for the most part. Maybe add a player or two at the deadline. Morale is low right now but the team still has some decent talent and a solid rotation. The situation could look better in a couple of months. I don’t think a panic move would be wise (although I wouldn’t be averse to Hale taking the helm for the rest of the season).
Ducey - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#445424) #
EE was still bouncing to AAA at age 27. Jose didnt become anything special until he was 29. And they didnt have a year off for a pandemic.

Anyway, Horwitz isnt going to turn into something (which would be the point) unless he plays a lot. He wont with Schneider.

In any event, a bench bat isn't whats holding this team back.

To be clear, I'd love Horwitz to be called up to DH a few times a week and take some at bats away from Vlad, but the manager will just staple him to the bench like Vogelbach.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#445425) #
If Vogelbach hits as expected prior to the season,he is worth a tiny bit (mostly as a pinch-hitter). Anything less and he has no value to the club.  The issue is that he adds to a significant problem; the club has 3 players other than Vogelbach who you need to pinch-run for in a close game late.  That's already one too many.  And with Kiermaier out, they are a short a pinch-runner. 

Here's my take.  This club does not need Vogelbach.  What they do need is a player who is an effective base-stealing threat off the bench.  Maybe someone like Lane Thomas or Tyler Wade. 

I'd love if the club gave Horwitz a decent chance, but that isn't happening with Guerrero Jr., Turner, and Biggio around. 
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#445426) #
Silver lining - we can’t watch tomorrow's game even if we wanted to.

https://x.com/BlueJays/status/1786156622680596836
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#445427) #

Hearing that OF Nathan Lukes is headed to Washington to meet the Blue Jays.

He had a strong spring training but was the odd man out at end of camp. Batted .284/.348/.432 in 20 games with Buffalo.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) May 2, 2024
GabrielSyme - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#445429) #
In retrospect, the most damaging move by the Jays org in recent years was by ownership in hiring Mark Shapiro and letting AA slip away. AA was a good general manager then, and he's turned into arguably the best in the game. He should have been regarded as a major asset to the club. Shapiro and Atkins haven't been bad, exactly. Instead, they've been average - pretty good with free agents and what trades they've made, pretty poor with player development and, frankly, unimaginative.

Ultimately, ownership failed to accurately evaluate their own talent and let one of the best get away.
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#445430) #
Rogers throwing away the GM as soon as they made the playoffs for the first time in 20yrs was always extremely hilarious, and telling.
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#445432) #
Wow you guys are still clueless almost a decade later. Maybe I should ask, which AA GM are you referring to that Rogers let get away?

The AA who spent all but the last 3 months of his career here schlepping out middling line ups and non playoff teams? The one who would not sign a player for more than 5 years? The one that asked players to kick in money to sign Ervin Santana? That GM was a young GM who was risky but had a W-L record and trade record that was up and down, nothing special. He got Shaun Marcum on a good deal. Donaldson trade was great. Marlins trade was one of the worst in history. Colby Rasmus didn't work out. Brett Lawrie didn't work out. Etc etc.

or

Are you referring to the GM that sold off any and all prospects who he previously refused to trade the entire time he was here up until being notified that a new President was coming in to replace his boss and he missed the promotion. He had 3 months to work for a new boss or get out of town. Oh, so you're talking about the "3 month" AA. Got it. You were swept away by the best 3 months of his career that worked out as best as possible. You're ignoring the whole picture.

If you want to say that you wish AA was here because he is the best, no arguments as he is something else since he left the Jays. To pretend that Rogers had this amazing GM with an amazing record who took them to the ALCS and decided to get rid of him is garbage. It all happened after the decision was made. Remember...when they were hovering around .500 with infield ground balls going through Jose Reyes' legs....nah, you don't remember that...

What's next..."The Jays let Marcus Semien get away?" "The Jays let the best catcher in baseball get away."

This front office is mediocre. This core is mediocre. Please just say that rather than reaching for a GM from 10 years ago who had a good track record but not great but happened to go out with a bang after finding out he was passed over for someone else. If Beeston was still in charge they'd still be paying the University of Guelph to do testing on growing natural grass indoors.
Gerry - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#445434) #
Shi Davidi hears that Nathan Lukes is headed to Washington. The other half is unclear at this time.
Gerry - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#445435) #
Just saw the discussion in the minor league thread.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#445438) #
The fact that the Dodgers, arguably the best front office in baseball, hired AA as VP of baseball ops after his Blue Jays tenure speaks to the reputation he had among the smartest people in the game at the time. Do you think they would hire Atkins now if he were let go by Toronto? I doubt it.

Two things can be true. Anthopoulos was a highly talented and very young exec when he was with the Blue Jays. He also needed to move on from what had become an untenable situation with Toronto so that he could expand his horizons, gain a broader range of experience, and ultimately become an elite GM.
John Northey - Thursday, May 02 2024 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#445439) #
greenfrog - that sounds about right to me. Here he'd have been limited as GM, never learning how others did it from direct experience (LA was a good place to go for him to learn). That helped a lot when he got to Atlanta. As to the guys here, they had a clear objective - maximize profits for Rogers. Nothing more, nothing less. They got the park in Dunedin built and finished which no other president could get done even though it has been needed since the Gillick days iirc. Skydome needed upgrades badly - talk of replacing it had happened, and remember its value had dropped to $25 mil when Rogers bought it. IIRC no one else really was after it then. The new areas appear to be a big success and the base for revenue from the park I'm certain has jumped despite losing 20% of the seating.

Now, as to Atkins - he hasn't done anything horrid (see 90% of Ash trades), or embarrassing (JPR in regards to how he treated Halladay), nor 'wow' like the AA deal for Donaldson or Gillick's Fernandez & McGriff/Alomar & Carter deal. His first draft was great, but odds are a lot of the legwork was done by AA's scouts (AA didn't do so well in his last few drafts though - no one he signed in 2015 has 1 WAR yet, Jordan Romano was 2014). First round picks tend to be GM picks, later round the scouts they hire - 1st round 1+ WAR for Atkins Alek Manoah (1 out of 9 picks over 9 years). 1st round AA: Jeff Hoffman, Marcus Stroman, Joe Musgrove, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard (5 out of 18 picks over 6 years). Amazing that AA had double the picks - he was an expert at getting extra picks. Atkins picks haven't had time to develop in many cases, Hoffman for example was negative until last season (took him 9 years post draft to get to +1). I suspect we'll know more in 5 years once we know if Nimmala is any good, if Pearson does a Hoffman, etc.

#1 job is make money, #2 is to provide a playoff team, #3 is to be an entertaining team. 2 out of 3 for the current GM (yes I have that song stuck in my head now), in 21/22 they had all 3. If Vlad & Bo could just get going we'd be back to entertaining too. Sigh.
Michael - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 02:52 AM EDT (#445441) #
It isn't just the picks you get and develop, it is what value you get out of your picks through development *or trading*. AA was good at trading minor leaguers before they washed out (or occasionally made it) and getting a good return.

As I said in an earlier thread, AA was very good in Toronto, and that was apparent at the time (and the idea that he "sold the farm" is overblown by a lot). Shapiro/Atkins were above average before Toronto, and think they've been at least average in Toronto, probably a bit above average actually when you take it all together. But going from the ~5th or 6th best GM in baseball (AA in Toronto) who has likely matured into a top 3, to about the the 10th best GM in baseball who has stayed roughly in that 10th-12th range is a step down.

For the play on the field, the step down of Vlad, Bo, Manoah, and Springer is more of an impact to the current level. Perhaps we've been a little lucky in the skill/development/health of the other players a bit, but you can certainly dream of a world where Vlad and Bo are both back to 130-150 OPS+, Springer 130 OPS+, and Manoah a solid #2 pitcher with hints of #1, and everyone else the same as currently and you imagine a much, much stronger team result.
bpoz - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#445442) #
I agree with Michael. I also include Kirk as underperforming. If those 4 hitters don't step up then this season will be very painful.
soupman - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#445443) #
The Jays had two decade of futility before AA made them division winners. They still haven't sniffed a division win since 2015. AA inherited a farm that was in worse shape than the one he left which included Vlad that everyone in baseball considered a 1-1 draft pick if he had qualified. The farm is in a worse state TODAY without 'going all in' than it was when AA left.

Let's just talk about scouting. AA inherited an org that didn't scout HS players. He had to rebuild scouting and relationships with farm teams. When AA came to the Jays the AAA team was in los vegas. insanity. it's now in the most proximate location...under AA's watch. which makes it easier for the GM to go see games...which is easier when the GM is from the GTA, lives there (and not outside Boston) and actually has some connection to the team/area.

When AA came in the stadium was empty. They were selling season's tickets for $100. The only time anyone showed up was when the Yanks or Red Sox were in town. It was embarrassing to be a fan and have to hear chants for other teams like that. When is the last time you experienced that in the dome? They sell tickets and that started under AA. Rebranding happens under him in 2012 and people wear the merch on the streets. People actually talk about the team again - not just diehards, but people at the water cooler or at parties. Shapiro inherited a team with a fanbase, and one that would come to games.

AA was already a great GM before he left. He grabbed the reigns in december 2009 and by 2015 they were a world series favourite and division winner. 6 years of teams that started with trading the best pitcher the franchise ever had and a rebuild. This FO inherited a division winner and in 9 years has never been close to doing that. I stopped following the team for years because of how wrong I think the decision to let AA walk was, and I still do - everything I said about Shapiro day 1 has proven to be true...check the threads. The last time this team won a playoff GAME, not series, was in 2016 with basically the 2015 team minus David Price.

soupman - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#445444) #
One thing that people often say about AA is that he learned FROM his time in Toronto. He learned WHILE in Toronto and, by his own assessment, that was to value chemistry/fit/culture over talent. If AA was still here, I don't see a scenario where VGJ would be.
greenfrog - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#445445) #
Atkins and Shapiro are evidently in love with “The Process” they came up with. But what if The Process is sometimes a hindrance? Maybe sometimes you just need a brilliant GM who synthesizes information well and makes astute decisions (with input from a capable and dedicated team).
scottt - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#445446) #
If someone has to come out for Lukes, it's probably Barger or possibly Vogelbach.
I'd like to see more platoon and more pinch hitting.

The AL East was weak in 2015, with only the Yankees being a contender.
Even with today's wild cards, Baltimore and Tampa were not playoffs teams and Boston won 78 games.

AA has committed so many atrocities, like Farrell for a manager.
He's found a good catcher in Travis D'Arnaud, a guy he basically dumped while in Toronto.
He won a World Series on a hot Eddie Rosario, which no amount of logic can explain.
He downgraded from Freddie Freeman to Matt Oslon who hasn't looked better than Guerrero or Biggio this year. I don't think he's learned anything. He's been lucky. Lucky not to have to hire a manager for example.

Nobody has mentioned that Tampa has struggled even more than the Jays this year.
Their best hitters are Richie Palacios (.895 OPS), Paredes (.867) and Ben Rortvedt (.808).
Players with a slow start include Randy Arozarena (.455), Yandy Diaz (.556), Siri (.578) and Harold Ramirez (.575).  Maybe it's only May 3.

dalimon5 - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#445447) #
"But going from the ~5th or 6th best GM in baseball (AA in Toronto) who has likely matured into a top 3, to about the the 10th best GM in baseball who has stayed roughly in that 10th-12th range is a step down."

---> Find me someone who disagrees with this.


> AA is a better manager than Atkins.

> Rafael Devers, Tatis and Rutschman are better players than Vlad.

> Kevin Cash is a better manager than Jon Schneider.

Any other obvious statements we want to discuss here?

Sorry but we have had this "AA is better than what we have," "if only he was here" debate about a million times with hundreds of posts trying to debate why he is better. He had similar success to this front office for the bulk of time he was here. He performed worse until the last three months but he had more restraints and a cheaper boss to work with. He has done a better job since leaving proven by the success of his teams. Most importantly, he was likeable unlike his predecessor and successors.

Time to move on people. Our FO is average at best right now. They suck apples and are grating. They just suck. Please focus on their ineptitude instead of imagining a re-envisioned path where AA stayed here, resigned Price and EE, went to the Post Season in '17, 18, won a World Series and then quickly restocked the team again and is competing again the last 5 years without the drawbacks of this current FO's on field product.
uglyone - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#445448) #
Criticizing AA's time here can only be done if you still have your head up your own ass and think you're an expert in properly valuing prospects better than AA did.

Pro-tip: he was always much better at valuing those prospects than you were. And always better at it than our current FO.
greenfrog - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#445449) #
Based on polling of 40 execs, The Athletic ranked Atlanta as the third-best front office in baseball. That says a lot more about Anthopoulos’s ability than some random pot shots about his being a lucky GM.
soupman - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#445450) #
dalimon5: The organization as a whole AA inherited was in shambles per my previous reply to you. Again: the farm is arguably in a worse state today than it was when AA left (since he had just added VGJ as a coup…effectively a 1-1 draftee and the most sought after IFA ever, afaik). If someone came in to replace this front office today, they wouldn’t have a division winner and reigning MVP to work with, they wouldn’t have a future #1 prospect in baseball. They’d have an uninspired renovation losing its appeal, and a team fading in the standings. Presumably an owner looking to find efficiencies after seeing investments fail to pay off due to the half-measures and inability to manage personalities (Manoah’s evident insubordination, Vlad’s ongoing lack of discipline and accountability, Bo’s comments around playing for your baseball card stats). This front office’s middling results are likely going to see the Jays become even more risk averse going forward if the payroll envelope shrinks towards revenue as it was forced to in the past under AA and JPR. I don’t see any evidence that they have any idea how to manage personalities or build a winning culture…two things AA excelled at here after reaching an epiphany with the DeRosa signing and adjusting accordingly. The point I’m making is not we need to envision an alternative reality where AA stayed, which I agree is pointless, but I also think it’s a mistake to reduce AA’s success in Toronto to “the last 3 months” when throughout the organization he fixed many of the problems created by the previous admin and left it much improved top to bottom, including the oft cited “empty” farm system which, in my opinion, as I will say once again: is worse today than August 1, 2015.
Michael - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#445451) #
dalimon5, "Find me someone who disagrees with this [that AA in Toronto was ~5th or 6th best GM and a step above current front office]" the someone that seemed to disagree with that which myself and other posts were reacting to was the someone who posted "a GM from 10 years ago who had a good track record but not great but happened to go out with a bang after finding out he was passed over for someone else" and later followed up with "He [AA] had similar success to this front office for the bulk of time he was here". I think good track record but not great and similar to the current front office is underselling AA at the time, let alone what has happened since. Especially since you typically judge front offices on what they have at the start and what they do with that (so a GM that takes a 30th team to 5th might be better than a GM that takes a 1st team to 5th). So take that up with the poster who seemed to disagree and wrote those bits above... checking notes, that poster was in fact: dalimon5.

But yeah, by the next month (June 2nd) if Manoah comes back and pitches like his last start in the minors (and is effective in the majors again) and not like the several before that (something I wouldn't bet on), and if Vlad, Bo, and even Springer and Kirk turn it around with a hot May and are back to normal preseason expectations, and no one else blows up to the negative, the team could be in a very different place and the vibe might well be very different in here. And based on schedule while there may be some easier teams based on current record (below 500) Nationals, Tampa, White Sox, Pirates I'm not sure those are all that easy (Nationals only 1 game under, Tampa is Tampa, even Pirates only 4 games under: White Sox are legit not good), but that is also balanced with the above 500 which include Twins, Orioles, Phillies, Tigers, so May isn't exactly an easy schedule despite 3 games against one of the worst 3 teams in baseball, arguably the worst.
Mike Green - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#445452) #
Things I learned today.  Bert Campaneris never won a Gold Glove.  Why?  For much of his peak, he was competing with Mark Belanger who was better defensively.  But he lost in 1970 to Luis Aparicio and in 1972 to Ed Brinkman.  Both of these were poor decisions.  Bert is 82 years old, and has 3 rings, so I guess he has done all right after all.  Fine player. 
Mike Green - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#445453) #
For the record, Blue Jay starting pitching has not been good.  The team starting pitching ERA- is 106 which ranks 18th in the major leagues.  We don't have accessible xERA or xERA- for the team, but the individual xERAs for the starters are: Kikuchi 2.97, Berrios 4.88, Bassitt 5.52, Gausman 5.59, Rodriguez 5.81 and Francis 6.08.  The starting pitchers have benefited from favourable home park and a good defence,  and one does need to adjust one's sights accordingly. 
greenfrog - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#445455) #
This is speculative, but how much of an impact could the last three years of failing to make or advance in the postseason be affecting the team’s 2024
performance? After close to 500 games of high expectations and grinding effort culminating in multiple management debacles and zero postseason wins, maybe some players on the team have lost their will to compete hard for yet another 162 games.
Ducey - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#445456) #
I would guess that Atkins would be a lot smarter if Vlad and Bo were hitting like everyone expected them to.

Or maybe he ought to have broke the bank and resigned Chapman (OPS+ 90) or gone after Snell (ERA+ 35 and now broken) like some here wanted this winter.

I expect that the bats will heat up at some point. With any luck, probably about the time people stop watching hockey.
John Northey - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#445457) #
Ducey - good points there. I was on the Snell & Chapman train - both looked like they could help. Oops. Guess its lucky I'm not the GM.

I expect Vlad especially to get going soon - his underlying numbers last year and this are far better than the wRC+ would suggest. Vlad has a xwOBA of 365 - right between Josh Smith and Spencer Steer - wRC+ for them 166 + 129, Vlad 104. in fact for a xwOBA of 360 or better only Matt Olsen has a lower wRC+ than Vlad (99 with a xwOBA of 377 - guess AA's magic isn't strong enough to make Olsen perform at his stats level). Yeah, he never got back to his proper level last year but pre-2023 his xwOBA and real wOBA matched up fairly well so logically there is no reason for this spread beyond very bad luck, and luck by its nature turns around eventually.

Springer I worry more about as he has age against him. His xwOBA though is 323 vs wOBA of 283 so he should get better too. Bo though is a different story - 267 xwOBA vs 252 wOBA, and KK even worse - xwOBA of 214 vs wOBA 220 (his raw stats are better than expected, and they suck). Kirk is in the Springer/Vlad category but worse in both (x 291 w 250). Overperforming is Turner (356-387), Biggio (291-311), Varsho (281-353) vs the big unders Vlad (365-314), IKF (343-299), Springer (323-283), Kirk (291-250). Is this normal? Lets check a couple of teams - Yankees big spreads under: Wells (284-412), Judge (366-323), over: Verdugo (339-356), Rizzo (292-324), Trevino (287-323), Cabrera (280-305). That is 2 under, 4 over. I'm using 50+ PA and 25+ points of spread btw.

Maybe having all stats sucking makes Bo more likely to recover as his problem is he isn't hitting it right - figure out why that is happening and you can fix it. Vlad, Kirk, Springer though are hitting it right (exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed) but not getting results. Hard to say. Lets just hope Vlad starts getting lucky instead of unlucky soon. With the same luck as he has had bad luck he'd be one of the top hitters in the game.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#445458) #
Results count too Mike. The Jays are tied for 5th in MLB with 14 quality starts.
Berrios was also named pitcher of the month.

The team has had its share of terrible starts, but those mostly happened early on.
Mike Green - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#445462) #
Blue Jay batters love Jeremy Corbyn, um Patrick Corbin (I get those lefties confused all the time). 
dalimon5 - Friday, May 03 2024 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#445468) #
Ugly, I don't believe I can value prospects better than anyone. Thanks for your "pro," tip though, more of a grievance it seems.

So it seems it's not enough for me to say AA is better than this FO and all the butt kissers should move on. It appears I must also admit that everything he did was better and not just for the last 3 months.

Moreover, I concede that AA did a better job drafting and developing his farm system with the caveat that he had a worse record and higher draft picks on a regular basis compared to this FO.

You guys make me smile too much. Woe is you, pro's.

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