Road trip! Beginning with the annual pilgrimage to Comerica Park. Not the hooly blisful martir for to seke, but rather to tangle with a Tiger or two. Or twenty-six.
The Tigers, until this very week, had sported the best record in the entire American League, a development I don't recall anyone forecasting. I recall myself noting that while their awful performances in recent years had landed them some very tasty places in the amateur draft, they didn't seem to be reaping the usual rewards. The Tigers got the first pick in the amateur draft twice in a three year period - (in half a century, the Blue Jays have never picked first overall) - they ended up with Casey Mize in 2018 and Spencer Torkelson in 2020. They missed out on Adley Rutschmann and Bobby Witt Jr the year in between. After a promising rookie year, Mize basically lost two full seasons to injury, and Torkelson spent three years looking like A Flop.
Mize has made it back into the rotation, and is having himself a fine season (9-4, 3.40.) He gives up lots of hits, and he doesn't strike out a whole lot of guys, but he doesn't walk a lot of hitters and generally keeps the ball in the yard. In other words, he's a younger version of Chris Bassitt.
As for Torkelson, after his disappointing 2024 season, he looks quite likely to duplicate his 2023 season numbers - but just a little better. There are incremental improvements - he's hitting a few more doubles, which has given his Slugging a bit of a boost, and he's drawing a few more walks to lift his OnBase a little. He's a 30-35 HR guy who's gone from .233/.313/.446 to .239/.339/.487 - and of course, offense in the AL is down a little from what it was in 2023, which makes what he's done more useful.
Of course, when you get a player as good as Tarik Skubal in the ninth round, you shouldn't be allowed to complain too much. The Blue Jays have been extremely good at missing Skubal's turn in the rotation. They haven't faced him since July 2023. On that occasion, Skubal was making just his second start of the season after returning from flexor tendon surgery, and the Tigers were still building him up. He was, at that point, just on the verge of becoming Tarik Skubal. On this occasion, he was pulled after four shutout innings and 63 pitches. (The Jays would come back to win in ten.) His one other appearance against the Jays came back in June 2022 - the Jays got to him for four runs in the fourth inning, keyed by Guerrero's two run homer, and tagged him with the L, behind Ross Stripling's six innings of one-hit shutout..
Like John Schneider, A.J. Hinch has taken merry advantage of the fact that he's got some very moveable pieces on his roster. Javier Baez has started more games (31) at shortstop than anywhere else, but he's seen plenty of action in centre field (28 starts) and third base (16 starts) as well. Zach McKinstry is as close as Hinch has to a regular third baseman (47 starts), but you can also see him in right field (28 starts), left field (9 starts), or shortstop (9 starts) as well. This is helpful, because the two men usually in the lineup at shortstop (Trey Sweeney) and centre field (Parker Meadows) don't hit much at all. But everybody else does and has. Only two AL teams have scored more runs.
As everyone knows, the Blue Jays are world-beaters and Yankee Killers at home in their dome. On the road, they're not so great. Basically, the offense falls off a cliff. They've scored 5.35 Runs per Game at the RC, and just 3.85 Runs per Game on the road. Clearly a Data Table of the Home/Road splits will be called for at some point. Gosh, who will provide such a thing?
At home, this is an impressive lineup.
But then, this happens.
Two things leap out at me, and having ducked out of their path, I will tell you what they are.
First, the power just dries up. The number of home runs falls almost in half, and those 30 or so Big Flys turning into Fly Outs accounts for a sizeable chunk of the drop in BAVG, OnBase, and Slugging (roughly two thirds of it, I reckon.)
One hitter in particular has really struggled away from home. I mean, most of them aren't hitting nearly as well, but Bo Bichette really stands out: I mean, yikes! - .313/.346/.558 at home and .245/.295/.330 on the road? His OPS drops 279 points, from .904 to .625 (Wagner, Varsho, and Schneider have even bigger drop offs on the road, but their samples are pretty tiny, just 40-54 road plate appearances.)
Guerrero, Springer, and Barger are still solid hitters on the road, although their collective power shortage is not good. Kirk and Lukes have actually hit a little bit better away from home, and Ernie Clement doesn't care where the games are played. Bichette is the biggest culprit, and here's the thing - I'm pretty sure it's a fluke. Just One of Those Things. Coming into this season, Bo Bichette had about the smallest Home/Road split of anyone on the team. He's actually been a better hitter on the road in each of the last three seasons. Go figure.
Matchups
Thu 24 July - Lauer (5-2, 2.80) vs Olson (4-3, 2.71)
Fri 25 July - Berrios (6-4, 3.87) vs Montero (4-2, 4.28)
Sat 26 July - Gausman (7-7, 4.01) vs Skubal (10-3, 2.19)
Sun 27 July - Scherzer (1-0, 5.14) vs Flaherty (5-10, 4.77)
The Tigers, until this very week, had sported the best record in the entire American League, a development I don't recall anyone forecasting. I recall myself noting that while their awful performances in recent years had landed them some very tasty places in the amateur draft, they didn't seem to be reaping the usual rewards. The Tigers got the first pick in the amateur draft twice in a three year period - (in half a century, the Blue Jays have never picked first overall) - they ended up with Casey Mize in 2018 and Spencer Torkelson in 2020. They missed out on Adley Rutschmann and Bobby Witt Jr the year in between. After a promising rookie year, Mize basically lost two full seasons to injury, and Torkelson spent three years looking like A Flop.
Mize has made it back into the rotation, and is having himself a fine season (9-4, 3.40.) He gives up lots of hits, and he doesn't strike out a whole lot of guys, but he doesn't walk a lot of hitters and generally keeps the ball in the yard. In other words, he's a younger version of Chris Bassitt.
As for Torkelson, after his disappointing 2024 season, he looks quite likely to duplicate his 2023 season numbers - but just a little better. There are incremental improvements - he's hitting a few more doubles, which has given his Slugging a bit of a boost, and he's drawing a few more walks to lift his OnBase a little. He's a 30-35 HR guy who's gone from .233/.313/.446 to .239/.339/.487 - and of course, offense in the AL is down a little from what it was in 2023, which makes what he's done more useful.
Of course, when you get a player as good as Tarik Skubal in the ninth round, you shouldn't be allowed to complain too much. The Blue Jays have been extremely good at missing Skubal's turn in the rotation. They haven't faced him since July 2023. On that occasion, Skubal was making just his second start of the season after returning from flexor tendon surgery, and the Tigers were still building him up. He was, at that point, just on the verge of becoming Tarik Skubal. On this occasion, he was pulled after four shutout innings and 63 pitches. (The Jays would come back to win in ten.) His one other appearance against the Jays came back in June 2022 - the Jays got to him for four runs in the fourth inning, keyed by Guerrero's two run homer, and tagged him with the L, behind Ross Stripling's six innings of one-hit shutout..
Like John Schneider, A.J. Hinch has taken merry advantage of the fact that he's got some very moveable pieces on his roster. Javier Baez has started more games (31) at shortstop than anywhere else, but he's seen plenty of action in centre field (28 starts) and third base (16 starts) as well. Zach McKinstry is as close as Hinch has to a regular third baseman (47 starts), but you can also see him in right field (28 starts), left field (9 starts), or shortstop (9 starts) as well. This is helpful, because the two men usually in the lineup at shortstop (Trey Sweeney) and centre field (Parker Meadows) don't hit much at all. But everybody else does and has. Only two AL teams have scored more runs.
As everyone knows, the Blue Jays are world-beaters and Yankee Killers at home in their dome. On the road, they're not so great. Basically, the offense falls off a cliff. They've scored 5.35 Runs per Game at the RC, and just 3.85 Runs per Game on the road. Clearly a Data Table of the Home/Road splits will be called for at some point. Gosh, who will provide such a thing?
The Blue Jays have hit .274/.346/.454 in their 54 home games - that's a pretty nice OPS of .800, and the highest scoring team in baseball (Yankees, damn Yankees) has a collective OPS of .787. So, yeah, the Jays have been swinging it really well at home.
But when they get south of the border, then comes the crash - .246/.317/.357, which is an OPS of .674, and just a handful of teams have done worse. So let's look at the individuals involved and see who's taken the Biggest Fall.
And because I have mighty Excel skills and I don't mind showing off, I have pro-rated all individual figures to that of a 162 game schedule (so they resemble normal season numbers.) I have done this by the clever tactic of multiplying all home numbers by 3 and all road numbers by 3.375. Math skillz, I haz them.
At home, this is an impressive lineup.
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Guerrero 159 711 594 102 168 42 0 27 108 3 6 105 114 .283 .392 .490 .882
Bichette 153 684 651 93 204 54 3 33 111 12 6 27 105 .313 .346 .558 .904
Springer 153 618 510 117 156 27 0 33 87 15 0 90 117 .306 .411 .553 .964
Clement 162 579 540 69 153 30 3 9 60 0 3 18 48 .283 .309 .400 .709
Kirk 135 540 480 45 135 18 0 12 75 0 0 51 51 .281 .350 .394 .744
Barger 132 480 438 69 126 30 0 27 78 6 3 36 102 .288 .346 .541 .887
Gimenez 93 360 324 48 75 9 0 12 39 12 3 18 48 .231 .308 .370 .679
Lukes 120 360 306 54 78 12 0 6 60 0 3 39 36 .255 .342 .353 .695
Santander 81 336 297 30 57 12 0 9 33 0 0 36 84 .192 .277 .323 .600
Straw 138 303 279 63 66 24 0 3 24 12 0 21 42 .237 .290 .355 .645
Schneider 66 189 150 36 42 9 0 9 27 0 3 33 45 .280 .429 .520 .949
Varsho 45 177 162 36 39 9 3 18 45 3 0 12 51 .241 .288 .667 .955
Wagner 54 171 150 27 51 18 0 0 12 0 0 18 33 .340 .411 .460 .871
Roden 63 156 132 27 30 6 3 3 15 0 0 9 33 .227 .308 .386 .694
Heineman 54 150 129 27 48 15 0 6 36 3 0 9 30 .372 .408 .628 1.036
Clase 42 135 117 15 30 3 0 3 12 9 0 15 30 .256 .356 .359 .715
But then, this happens.
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Bichette 162 732 675 57 165 37 0 7 74 0 3 47 125 .245 .295 .330 .625
Guerrero 159 685 587 101 169 20 0 14 47 14 0 84 81 .287 .389 .391 .780
Springer 152 597 513 71 132 27 3 20 88 24 0 64 111 .257 .337 .441 .778
Clement 155 591 533 81 149 34 0 3 24 10 7 47 64 .278 .331 .361 .692
Kirk 138 540 493 41 162 20 0 10 71 0 0 41 54 .329 .375 .432 .807
Barger 115 432 408 61 105 41 0 17 61 3 0 24 122 .256 .297 .479 .776
Gimenez 101 398 348 34 71 14 0 3 34 20 0 34 78 .204 .291 .272 .562
Lukes 122 388 327 34 88 10 0 10 44 3 3 47 57 .268 .366 .392 .758
Straw 128 338 300 34 74 7 0 0 30 10 3 14 51 .247 .284 .270 .554
Santander 78 327 287 14 47 3 0 10 24 0 0 41 91 .165 .268 .282 .550
Clase 68 226 206 17 37 7 0 3 17 0 3 17 61 .180 .242 .262 .505
Roden 71 199 179 10 34 10 0 0 10 0 3 14 44 .189 .254 .245 .500
Wagner 54 182 152 10 20 3 0 0 7 3 0 24 41 .133 .278 .156 .433
Heineman 57 162 142 34 44 3 0 3 14 3 0 10 30 .310 .383 .405 .788
Varsho 30 138 128 7 20 7 0 7 17 0 0 3 47 .158 .171 .368 .539
Schneider 54 135 111 14 14 0 0 7 10 0 0 24 47 .121 .275 .303 .578
Two things leap out at me, and having ducked out of their path, I will tell you what they are.
First, the power just dries up. The number of home runs falls almost in half, and those 30 or so Big Flys turning into Fly Outs accounts for a sizeable chunk of the drop in BAVG, OnBase, and Slugging (roughly two thirds of it, I reckon.)
One hitter in particular has really struggled away from home. I mean, most of them aren't hitting nearly as well, but Bo Bichette really stands out: I mean, yikes! - .313/.346/.558 at home and .245/.295/.330 on the road? His OPS drops 279 points, from .904 to .625 (Wagner, Varsho, and Schneider have even bigger drop offs on the road, but their samples are pretty tiny, just 40-54 road plate appearances.)
Guerrero, Springer, and Barger are still solid hitters on the road, although their collective power shortage is not good. Kirk and Lukes have actually hit a little bit better away from home, and Ernie Clement doesn't care where the games are played. Bichette is the biggest culprit, and here's the thing - I'm pretty sure it's a fluke. Just One of Those Things. Coming into this season, Bo Bichette had about the smallest Home/Road split of anyone on the team. He's actually been a better hitter on the road in each of the last three seasons. Go figure.
Matchups
Thu 24 July - Lauer (5-2, 2.80) vs Olson (4-3, 2.71)
Fri 25 July - Berrios (6-4, 3.87) vs Montero (4-2, 4.28)
Sat 26 July - Gausman (7-7, 4.01) vs Skubal (10-3, 2.19)
Sun 27 July - Scherzer (1-0, 5.14) vs Flaherty (5-10, 4.77)
