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A 10 game homestand begins with a visit from the Kansas City Royals, who do not have the worst record in the major leagues.


Oh, they did. Just last week, the Blue Jays were visiting Oakland, and I was surprised to discover that Oakland didn't have the worst record in the majors. That dubious distinction was held, for the moment, by the Royals. But the A's lost two of three to the Blue Jays while the Royals took two of three from the White Sox and here we are. Now Oakland has the worst record in the majors.

The Royals are still pretty bad - they're sure to lose 100 games this season, for the seventh time since the 2000s began. The Colorado Rockies have never lost 100 games. Neither have the Angels of Anaheim, who started playing in 1961. The New York Yankees weren't even the Yankees the last time they lost 100 games. It was 1912, and they were still known as the New York Highlanders. The Dodgers and the Cardinals? Last time for both franchises was in 1908.

The Royals were once the model for every expansion franchise. They were smart (GM Cedric Tallis pulled off a series of clever trades that brought the team Amos Otis, Hal McRae, Freddie Patek), they were innovative (the Royals Baseball Academy, which graduated Frank White and U.L. Washington), they were lucky (in their third year, they drafted George Brett). But they have been bad for a long time - they've had five winning seasons since Brett retired thirty years ago. Don't the people of Kansas City deserve better?

Nah. 

Besides, the football team is pretty good.

The Blue Jays visited Kansas City way back in early April - after dropping two of their first three to St. Louis, they needed to get the season turned around. Which they did, although not right away.

The Story So Far

Monday 3 April: Toronto 5 Kansas City 9 - Jose Berrios picked up right where he'd left off in 2022, allowing four hits and three runs in his very first inning of the season. The Royals tacked on five more hits, and four more runs, in the fourth. They only had two other hits all day, but what they packed into those two innings was quite enough.

Tuesday 4 April: Toronto 4 Kansas City 1 - It was Yusei Kikuchi to the rescue, allowing a single run in his five innings. At which point, John Schneider, remembering the Kikuchi of 2022, thought it prudent to count his blessings and go to the bullpen although Kikuchi had thrown just 69 pitches.

Wednesday 5 April: Toronto 3 Kansas City 0 - Hey, remember when Alek Manoah was good? The big fellow worked seven shutout innings, allowing just a fifth inning single to Jackie Bradley (along with four bases on balls.) It did take the Jays six innings before they could push a run across the plate against Zack Greinke (Guerrero single, Varsho single, Chapman groundout) and they added a couple more against the bullpen.

Thursday 6 April: Toronto 6 Kansas City 3 - The Jays jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead (Guerrero single, Varsho double, Chapman double) which was all Kevin Gausman would need, as he worked six scoreless innings. Biggio and Guerrero added solo homers.

Matchups

Fri 8 September - Snider (0-0, 4.22) vs Kikuchi (9-5, 3.63)
Sat 9 September - Greinke (1-14, 5.34) vs Gausman (10-8, 3.39)
Sun 10 September - Ragans (4-1, 1.51) vs Berrios (9-10, 3.68)

That's not a misprint. Zack Greinke, who was pitching just like the Greinke of old as recently as this May (when he posted a 2.31 ERA in six starts) has been on the losing end of 10 consecutive decisions, enough to drop his career winning percentage below .600 - he's still going to Cooperstown, but he may have to wait an extra year or two to give people enough time to forget all this. Also not a misprint is what the young southpaw Cole Ragans has done for the Royals since they picked him up in exchange for Aroldis Chapman. Ragans hasn't allowed a run in his last three starts, and brings a streak of 21 consecutive scoreless innings to town.
Kansas City at Toronto, September 8-10 | 223 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#436166) #
And we get to the end of our ghetto tour. One sweep would be really nice. 6-3 would be pretty disappointing against these teams.
John Northey - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#436167) #
For comparison... KC vs...
  • Baltimore: 1-5
  • Rays: 3-4
  • Seattle: 1-6
  • Houston: no games yet, 6 to go
  • Texas: 1-5
So a sweep would match the Rangers and O's records and be very close to Seattle's. Losing 2 of 3 would match the Rays who I think we'd all agree are a damn good team.
Gerry - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#436173) #
Bo is back, McCoy is optioned.
Waveburner - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#436175) #
Here's hoping Bo's return cuts into Merrifield's playing time, not Biggio or Clement.
Marc Hulet - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#436176) #
I have no doubt this middling pitcher from KC will own the Jays hitters tonight... As per the usual trend.
92-93 - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#436178) #
Biggio 3B, Merrifield 2B, and Schneider DH with Belt still out.

Schneider loves separating his LHB as much as possible, but with Bo back batting 2nd he elects to go Biggio 5th, Varsho 9th, and Kiermaier 9th.
John Northey - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#436181) #
I get playing Biggio tonight vs a RHP but if a LHP comes in I wonder who'll hit for him - Espinal or Clement - should be Clement but Espinal seems to have a hold on the manager at times. I just hope we don't see Schneider sit for any of the next 7 games (3 vs KC, 4 vs Texas) as this is a critical time and he is the hottest hitter in the majors. Until he shows he can't handle it (say, going a week with a sub 1000 OPS) he has to be kept in. Sit Merrifield, Biggio, Espinal, and put Schneider in at 2B - I get DHing him when Belt is out but please do not let Merrifield play over him.
krose - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#436182) #
Would have preferred Horwitz at DH and Schneider at second. Wonder why Coach Schneider past over Horwitz?
SK in NJ - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#436183) #
John Schneider has a clear preference for veteran players, so he is not going to play young players (like Horowitz) over veterans. No matter how bad Merrifield has been for the past month plus, I doubt his place in the lineup is in any danger. Once Chapman gets back, I would expect Davis Schneider's playing time to greatly reduce regardless of performance. I hope I'm wrong on that, and John shows a bit more flexibility, but based on what we have seen so far this season, I see the team living or dying with its veteran players.
Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#436184) #
Why did Coach Schneider pass over Horwitz?

Horwitz spilled lambs blood on his door accidentally night.
Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#436185) #
*last night
hypobole - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#436186) #
Pretty well every manager loves their vets. Except Cash, because management trades them before they become vets.
John Northey - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#436187) #
Well, Horwitz has played well (153 OPS+) but not burning hot (Schneider's 267) and for just 8 games/24 PA. Clement has hit better (168 OPS+) over more PA (41). But I suspect when a LHP shows up, if Chapman isn't back yet, we'll see Espinal at 3B over Clement and Schneider for ... reasons. Vs a RHP I can see using Biggio over Clement at 3B, vs anyone I can't see why you'd use Espinal over anyone on the current roster.

Btw, for those saying 'sit Varsho' (I know you are out there) he is one of 4 guys with 3+ WAR on this team - Bo, Chapman, Varsho, and Kiermaier. Crazy good OF defense can do that. Schneider is next at 2.0 bWAR. Then comes Merrifield, Springer, Belt, Kirk, and Jansen in the 1.5-1.9 range, Vlad at a sad 1.3, Clement 0.6, Horwitz 0.3, Espinal 0.3, Heinemann 0.1, and Biggio -0.1. Yet we see Espinal and Biggio continuing to get regular PA's. Weird.
92-93 - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#436188) #
There is nothing weird about Biggio getting playing time. He's hitting .261/.371/.420 since May 23rd. Espinal has looked much better lately too.
scottt - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#436190) #
I'm guessing Varsho 7th.
scottt - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#436191) #
Snider is an opener. He threw 32 pitches on Monday and 8 on Saturday.
He's only going through the rotation once.
There should be opportunities to use the whole bench tonight, if the manager bothers to look for match ups.

Magpie - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#436192) #
I get playing Biggio tonight vs a RHP but if a LHP comes in I wonder who'll hit for him

Probably someone who - unlike Biggio - has an actual platoon split?
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#436193) #

Not sure what age would have to do with any of these decisions.

Kirk 24
Vlad 24
Schneider 24
Horwitz 25
Varsho 26
Clement 27
Biggio 28
Espinal 28
Lukes 28
Nigel - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#436194) #
Both the manager and the fans seem a little confused about who Biggio is and isnít as hitter. He needs to be kept away from premium velocity regardless of the handedness but otherwise he should have been seeing more regular ABs for a while now. Itís only taken 3 regulars to go down to make it happen.
92-93 - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#436195) #
Just bat Biggio 2nd so that atrocious first inning never happens again. The worst he'll do is strike out on 3 pitches.
Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#436196) #
Or leadoff Biggio and then hit Schneider 2nd.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#436197) #
Who will win this battle of wits?
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#436198) #
Kikuchi needs to throw more fastballs. Opposing hitters are looking for the breaking ball.
krose - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#436199) #
Bichette SS
Biggio 3B
Schneider 2B
Springer RF
Horwitz 1B
Guerrero DH
Varsho LF
Kirk C
Kiermaier
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#436200) #
Looks like another titanic struggle against a powerhouse team.
Kasi - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#436201) #
It is shocking how miserable this team looks at the plate.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#436202) #
This is such a weird season. No matter who is pitching for the other side, it feels as if the Jays almost never get out to a decent lead, maintain the lead, and comfortably win the game. Itís always the water drip torture of missed opportunities and wondering if theyíll scratch out some runs and somehow manage to edge the other team.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#436203) #
Davis Schneider 1/1 with a double

Rest of team 0/8 with a walk
Kasi - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#436204) #
Wow that was a nice strike out swing by Vlad there. Heís such a tease gives us one standout game a week and the goes back to his 1/4 or 0/4 ways.
Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#436205) #
That was impressive.  96, up and in, and Davis turned on it very nicely. 
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#436206) #
I really wasn't joking when i said i'd try hitting Schneider horwitz clement lukes in the 1-4 slots.

Something is very sick inside the regulars' heads.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#436207) #
Davis 2/2 with two doubles

Rest of team 0/11 with a walk
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#436208) #
Merrifield and varsho really have to stop playing everyday.

uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#436209) #
Losing to the worst team in baseball with an opener on the mound. And they look absolutely defeated.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#436210) #
Pitching against the Jays has allowed Marsh to get his ERA under 6, nice bonus for him.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#436211) #
Chances we score kiermaier here?
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#436212) #
Omg they got 2 hits in 1 inning.
Kasi - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#436213) #
Yay Bo. Boo Vlad you still suck. Geez hard to believe how far heís fallen this year.
Kasi - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#436214) #
Ahh I love how the Jays are now. They pitch to Vlad who misses as usual on a hittable pitch and pitch around our most feared hitter. Itís hardly believable anymore and if someone had told me this would happen I would have said they were high.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#436215) #
and with the bases loaded, the coldest bat on the entire team comes in Whit Merrifield.



what happens next?
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#436216) #
Guess weíre going to extra innings.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#436217) #
Merrifield has a 50wrc+ in his last 150pa, but plays every day no matter what, in the middle of the lineup.

maybe give him a break, coach.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#436218) #
Trevor Richards, 2nd Half: 19.0ip, 6.16era, 4.58fip

(not including tonight).
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#436219) #
attaBo!
dalimon5 - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#436220) #
FINALLY
Kasi - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#436221) #
Okay the reverse jinx worked for once!
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#436222) #
Schneider now tied for 3rd amongst jays hitters in WAR at 2.2.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#436223) #
Excellent inning. Hopefully that huge hit will help Vladdyís confidence.

KC has reason to be upset about the called ball four on Springer, though.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#436224) #
Clement should probably be starting ahead of White right now.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#436225) #
The Bisons are 3/3 with two walks for the Jays tonight.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#436226) #
Green hitting 97 on the gun is encouraging. I think his velo so far is right in line with his previous few years.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#436227) #
lol and then he hangs 2 curves and they get torched.
lexomatic - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#436228) #
<br>Schneider now tied for 3rd amongst jays hitters in WAR at 2.2.


He's like 15th for 2B overall THIS SEASON ... in 13 games at 2b by fWAR
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#436229) #
nothing easy with this team.
Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#436230) #
Clement's throw there was weak.  He can do better.  But I love his approach at the plate.
Marc Hulet - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#436231) #
At some point Captain Schneider is going to figure out the connection between the early SP hooks and the bullpen struggles... Right?
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#436232) #
captain hook?
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#436233) #
scoreboard watching is very good tonight. please just close this one down.
lexomatic - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#436234) #
There is nothing weird about Biggio getting playing time. He's hitting .261/.371/.420 since May 23rd.


Most of that is May 23 to June 30. He's got like a 700 ops and 326 slg since July 1.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#436235) #
Does anyone have an injury update on Swanson?
hypobole - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#436236) #
Going to pitch a rehab in Buffalo tomorrow.
lexomatic - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#436237) #
<br>KC has reason to be upset about the called ball four on Springer, though.


Doesn't even look close to zone on GameDay
Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#436238) #
It was a check swing.  Most of the time, Springer would have been rung up on that one.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#436239) #
Springer took a fairly big swing while bailing away from the pitch. The first base ump called it a checked swing. The Royals got mad, to no avail.
Marc Hulet - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#436240) #
Blue Jays relievers have got to be more aggressive in the zone. Too many relievers are coming in and trying to be too cute.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#436241) #
never in doubt.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#436242) #
Seattle loses. Both texas teams losing in the 7th. Boston also lost if that matters.
hypobole - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#436243) #
Danny had finger surgery, will miss the rest of the regular season at least.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#436244) #
both texas teams lose.

3 teams make it:

HOU +1.5
SEA +1.0
TOR ----
--------
TEX -1.5
BOS -6.0
92-93 - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#436246) #
Before getting on base in 2 of 3 PA tonight Biggio had a .386 since July 1st, so not sure what your point was lexomatic. Heís been having the best ABs on the team for awhile now, outside of Babe Schneider. He definitely shouldnít be losing ABs to Merrifield right now, and I donít care how hard the starter throws.
hypobole - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#436248) #
Brought up Jays hitting stats since Schneider's callup. Yeah the pitching he's faced hasn't been great.
12 batters have had at least 48 PA's in that time. 10 of those 12 hit 100wRC+ or better.

Only Chapman at 60 and Merrifield at 58 were below 100. And here's the topper. Merrifield had 133 PA's in that time - more than anyone else on team.
Kelekin - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#436250) #
I'm glad we won, but I sure didn't expect this to turn into a Reddit Game Day Thread. Always appreciate y'all but some are really failing to follow the long-standing BB Code of Conduct around here recently.
Kelekin - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 02:41 AM EDT (#436251) #
(Don't get me wrong, glad to see some engagement with how quiet it was at the start of the year, but let's tone down player insults and quick doomerism)
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#436252) #
I don't mind what people say as long as they don't insult each other and are respectful of other people's opinions. I think a lot of posters are just frustrated with the Jays, even though they are in a playoff position, just because they are a good team whose record should be better than it is.
dalimon5 - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 07:41 AM EDT (#436253) #
I've really only got two criticisms for the team:

1) critical of idea that Vlad is or should be a superstar (referring to both posters and management)

And

2) John Schneider who I feel has detracted from win totals for this team


In the past month the narrative on Vlad has changed quite a bit to help alleviate my first criticism. Otherwise I can still see this being a great season rest of way, but boy does Captain Hook spook me in the playoffs.
Glevin - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#436255) #
Merrifield should be back as a part-timer right now. He's a useful player and should get abs filling in all over the field but he's a 90 WRC+ player. That's who he is and Biggio is playing well.
Michael - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#436256) #
Vlad 100% should be a superstar. Even with his struggles he has a career 130 OPS+, all while less than 25. Only about 175 people in history have a career 130 OPS+, and most people play better from 25-30 than they did from 20-25. He also has the pedigree both in terms of a Hall of Fame dad and in terms of the top scouts and stats from minor league baseball. There is very little to say he shouldn't be a superstar.

It is true he's been disappointing this year (although advance stats suggest he's been pretty unlucky), and it is true the only thing he is undisputed number one in under 25 career is GIDP, but he still has the track record that he *should* be a superstar. Might he end up not one? Sure, but that doesn't change what he *should* be.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#436257) #
Toronto ranks 3rd in baseball with 120 GIDP. (2nd - Atlanta - 121; 1st - Miami - 138.)
scottt - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#436258) #
I still don't understand the bullpen usage.

Kikuchi is pulled after 5 because they want a high leverage arm against the top of the lineup.
Hicks gets it done with 10 pitches.
Then they go to Richards who is not great here because they won't pinch hit against him.
Maybe that's the point because the left bats would come out against Garcia/Green/Jackson, but then they bring out Mayza to face 3 right bats. It only took 1 right bat to sink the Jays in that scenario last year.

They shouldn't be afraid to throw heat against the bottom of the KC lineup.

They really didn't like the Springer check swing.
I can fully understand the ump not calling a strike when the batter is trying to get out of a high pitch inside.

dalimon5 - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#436260) #
Michael, how much of the Vlad criticisms have you read? There are lots of indicators and results that show the opposite of your points. Time will tell.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#436262) #
It's great to get the win and to see all of the Jays' key rivals lose. Fangraphs now has the Jays at 73.2% to make the playoffs and the Rangers at 39.9%.

The Jays could make life much easier for their starting pitchers (and their bullpen) by scoring some runs in the first half of games. The starting pitchers would have less stressful innings as a result, and the manager would be more likely to extend their outings by an inning or two.
hypobole - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#436265) #
Marc brought up something interesting in the minors thread, which some people don't check, so I'm bringing it here. He pointed out Schneider's pull heavy approach vs Clement's all fields.

What's best for most batters?

League: Pull 167 wRC+, Centre 120 wRC+, Oppo 107 wRC+.
Jays: Pull 190 wRC+, Centre 97 wRC+, Oppo 119 wRC+

Pulling is best for most batters, even more so for the Jays. That centre is weird though. Jays are #7 pulling, #9 opposite, but #29 up the middle. Cleveland's 96 wRC+ is the worst.

So who are the culprits?

90+ balls Centre:

Chapman 115, 143 wRC+
Bo 131, 136 wRC+
KK 95, 123 wRC+
Springer 151, 107 wRC+
Merrifield 163, 93 wRC+
Varsho 93, 73 wRC+
Vlad 158, 58 wRC+
Kirk 110, 43 wRC+

2 more with 50 balls.
Belt 50, 222 wRC+ 388/380/776
Jansen 53, 2 wRC+ 189/189/208
uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#436267) #
But then you have to figure out if being pull heavy or oppo heavy helps or hurts your overall average or power.
John Northey - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#436270) #
Regular reminder that the Jays are not 1/10th as frustrating to their fans this year as the Yankees, Mets, Padres, Cardinals, Rangers have been. The Rangers had a great start to mid-August time, but now their fans are feeling the crash, much like having a great party and drinking way too much during it, then waking up with a killer hangover. Corey Seager has a 180 OPS+ (historic for SS) Nathan Eovaldi has been a great #1 for 20 starts (150 ERA+ at age 33). But they have a horrid pen - 4.98 ERA, 3rd worst in AL (Oakland and KC worse) - 26 saves, 29 blown, 66 holds. Jays are 48 saves, 16 blown, 92 holds. 22% inherited runners scored for the Jays vs 29% for Texas.

FYI: we are up to 8 guys here with saves now, 8 with blown saves (Garcia 'leads' with 4), 13 guys with holds. Guys with 30+ chances (Sv+BlSv+Holds): Romano & Swanson, 20-29: Garcia, 10-19: Richards; 2-9: Hicks, Pearson, Cabrera, Cimber Frances; Just 1 (all holds): Bass, Jackson, Pop; 0: Danner, Green, Hatch, Thornton, White, and of course Clement. I'm surprised Green only has 1 of those so far. Also it seems like Richards has been in tight games a lot more but I guess many were trailing or tied. Clearly Schneider has trusted his pen a lot more than most and they have mostly delivered vs the nightmare Texas is going through (they make me think of 1983 here - 32 sv-26 blsv-27 hold-39% inherited scored, a nightmare that persisted until Henke showed up in mid 1985.
lexomatic - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#436271) #
Before getting on base in 2 of 3 PA tonight Biggio had a .386 since July 1st, so not sure what your point was lexomatic. Heís been having the best ABs on the team for awhile now, outside of Babe Schneider. He definitely shouldnít be losing ABs to Merrifield right now, and I donít care how hard the starter throws.
I can't comment to the quality of AB, and 386 OBP isn't anything to dismiss, but outside of that his hitting has NOT had good results. 326 slugging is piddling. Bat slapped out of hands bad. There's people he should still be playing ahead of, but it's also not  an 800 OPS since (extended random time). Weirdly, Biggio seems to have crammed the majority of his offense into a 5 week stretch. Anybody with more time or insight care to look as to maybe why?
Apr 1> May 23Gp 51 PA137 200/270/400 OPS 670 BABIP 240 wrc+83 WAR -0.1
May 23> Sep 9 (current)GP 64 PA 189 259/376/418 OPS 794 BABIP 330 wrc+125 WAR 0.9

Mar 1>May 22Gp 27 PA68 127/191/238 OPS429 BABIP 171 wrc+16 WAR -0.6

May 23> June 30Gp24 PA 69 274/348/565 OPS 913 BABIP 300 wrc+ 148 WAR 0.5

July1> Sep 9 (current to date)GP 40 PA 120 250/392/323 OPS 716 BABIP 348 wrc+112 WAR 0.4

Year to DateGP 91 PA 257 222/327/367 OPS 694 BABIP 291 wrc+ 96 WAR 0.3

The power hasn't existed except for June+The average is babip driven, but could certainly continue for the rest of the season. But looking at his career numbers, his overall line is about where we'd expect him to be, so I don't know that it will without some kind of change to support it. If it's just a hot streak, then is he really that much better?Has anyone noticed any changes in procedure/swing mechanics/ stance etc. that could explain a change in babip?
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#436272) #
The pulled fly ball approach makes me think of Roger Maris. Maris was traded to the Yankees after his age 24 season and exploded on the league when he learned to pull to take advantage of the short porch in Yankee Stadium. He hit 31 home runs on the road in 1961, as the approach worked everywhere. Jose Bautista was similar. Both Maris and Bautista had a quicker twitch and accordingly, Schneider is unlikely to hit 50 or 60 homers in a season.

I did not know that Maris was born in Hibbing, Minnesota in 1941. It's funny how his pattern roughly coincided with Bob Dylan's. Dylan is quoted in a 2018 article in the Village Voice that he didn't know Maris in Hibbing "and nobody did".



uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#436273) #
Arguable best lineups based on different sample size wRC+:


Past Calendar Year:

* 1. SS Bichette 137
* 2. DH Belt 134
* 3. 1B Guerrero 116
* 4. 2B Schneider 275
* 5. RF Springer 111
* 6. 3B Chapman 111
* 7. C Jansen 133
* 8. CF Kiermaier 112
* 9. LF Merrifield 109

* X. 1B Horwitz 158
* X. IF Clement 95
* X. C Kirk 91
* X. UT Biggio 81
* X. OF Varsho 80

* X. IF Espinal 77
* X. C Heineman 76
* X. OF Lukes 72



Season

* 1. SS Bichette 129
* 2. DH Belt 134
* 3. 1B Guerrero 114
* 4. 2B Schneider 275
* 5. 3B Chapman 113
* 6. C Jansen 114
* 7. CF Kiermaier 112
* 8. RF Springer 104
* 9. LF Merrifield 98

* X. IF Clement 176
* X. 1B Horwitz 158
* X. C Kirk 97
* X. UT Biggio 96
* X. OF Varsho 81

* X. C Heineman 89
* X. IF Espinal 75
* X. OF Lukes 72



2nd Half

* 1. SS Bichette 120
* 2. DH Belt 156
* 3. 1B Guerrero 109
* 4. 2B Schneider 275
* 5. LF Biggio 127
* 6. C Jansen 141
* 7. CF Kiermaier 125
* 8. RF Springer 96
* 9. 3B Chapman 92

* X. 1B Horwitz 199
* X. IF Clement 186
* X. C Kirk 133
* X. OF Varsho 90
* X. UT Merrifield 86

* X. IF Espinal 83
* X. C Heineman 76
* X. OF Lukes 64



Last 30 days

* 1. SS Bichette 78
* 2. DH Belt 164
* 3. 1B Guerrero 107
* 4. LF Schneider 275
* 5. C Jansen 203
* 6. 2B Clement 169
* 7. CF Kiermaier 140
* 8. 3B Biggio 122
* 9. RF Springer 115

* X. 1B Horwitz 199
* X. OF Varsho 107
* X. IF Espinal 96
* X. C Kirk 87
* X. UT Merrifield 42

* X. OF Lukes 100
* X. C Heineman 75
* X. 3B Chapman 19




Don't know how much is SoS but the last 30 days the Jays have a 115wrc+ and scoring 5.2 runs per game (before that it was a 107wrc+ and 4.5 runs per game).
uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#436274) #
I guess i could add one more lineup....this one based on Fangraphs' combined rest-of-season projection:

* 1. SS Bichette 121
* 2. DH Belt 118
* 3. 1B Guerrero 134
* 4. RF Springer 118
* 5. 2B Schneider 115
* 6. C Kirk 115
* 7. 3B Chapman 111
* 8. CF Varsho 102
* 9. LF Biggio 99

* X. C Jansen 110
* X. 1B Horwitz 104
* X. IF Espinal 92
* X. OF Kiermaier 91
* X. UT Merrifield 91

* X. OF Lukes 88
* X. IF Clement 87
* X. C Heineman 80
Magpie - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#436275) #
Dylan is quoted in a 2018 article in the Village Voice that he didn't know Maris in Hibbing "and nobody did".

Well, the Maris family had moved to North Dakota (Grand Forks at first,and then Fargo) before old Bob was born (in Duluth, as it happens.)
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#436276) #
Got it. I knew that Dylan was born in Duluth, but not that Maris' family moved to North Dakota. Thanks.
hypobole - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#436277) #
Mariners Kirby not following Crash Davis' advice:

Kirby gave up a score-tying two-run homer to Tampa Bay's Renť Pinto in the seventh inning on what was his 102nd and final pitch of the game.
"I wish I wasn't out there for the seventh [inning], to be honest," Kirby said after the game.
"I was at 90 pitches," Kirby said, "and I didn't think I really could go any more. But it is what it is."

On Saturday, Kirby said he "screwed up" with Friday's postgame comments.
Magpie - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#436279) #
I always forget Maris was born in Hibbing. I associate him with Fargo. (As does Fargo!)
Kelekin - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#436280) #
Nice seeing Horwitz at #2, he really profiles best there. On the whole, pretty solid lineup construction.

Cavan Biggio home run today. I can feel it.
James W - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#436282) #
I can't even remember the last home run this team hit, so I have no faith in anyone hitting one today - so watch them hit 4 or 5 probably.

Jonn N - the frustration of Padres fans has no effect on me. This has been an incredibly frustrating and disappointing season.
Nigel - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#436283) #
A very under reported rule change from MLB this past offseason was the rule against the Jays scoring in the first 5 innings of any ballgame. Really stressful for the Jays starters.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#436284) #
Nigel, who gets suspended for Springer's violation?
Nigel - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#436285) #
Well obviously the game is forfeit:)
greenfrog - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#436286) #
There is a narrow exception to the rule. The day after the rule has been adhered to, the Jays are permitted to score one (1) run in the first five innings, but only on a solo home run with a distance of less than four hundred (400) feet.

So the Jays are fully compliant.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#436287) #
Springer is really tempting fate today.  Two violations in two innings.  Maybe he gets to be the ghost runner for the rest of the season. 
uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#436288) #
not including today Springer has a 138wrc+ since he broke that horrendous 0 for 30something slump.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#436289) #
Vladimir hustles around the bases, then flashes some leather.
uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#436290) #
yeah springer may be back on top of the order for good, and deservedly so.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#436291) #
Hopefully we get a couple innings from Francis today so everyone else can get a breather
Nigel - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#436292) #
Why on earth would you have Hicks up today? Use Francis for goodness sake.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#436293) #
Fun game.  The defensive plays by Varsho and the Royals middle infield just now were memorable, and much less frustration than usual. 
Nigel - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#436294) #
In slow motion that was an incredible slide by Vladdy.
uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#436295) #
wow the SP threw 100+ pitches.

given how well he's pitching, he should probably pitch the 9th too with the heart of their order up.

uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#436296) #
good job. but a sweep tommorrow is kinda needed to make this ghetto tour a success.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#436297) #
Ragas is legit. I would say based on recent performance KC has the edge, pitching wise, tomorrow.

They won the games they needed to win this series. Tomorrow is a toss up, but not a must have like the last two
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#436298) #
Ragans I donít know what Ragas is or why my phone chose to autocorrect to that
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#436299) #
Plural of Raga from Indian classical music. No word on the fastball velo that a Raga possesses.
Magpie - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#436300) #
You have to let that raga drop.

(The king told the boogie men.)
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#436301) #
Rock the Casbah is what 40 years old now?
Magpie - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#436302) #
A long time ago. The only band that mattered.

Back when bands mattered!
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#436303) #
I always think of George Orwell and Joe Strummer together. Sons of petty functionaries of the British Empire. Homage to Catalonia and Spanish Bombs.

I did not know until just now that Strummer was the first artist to record carbon-neutral apparently.

All right. Back to baseball.
uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#436304) #
Rays come back to beat the mariners.

Jays now tied for the 1st wildcard.
hypobole - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#436305) #
2nd wildcard. Tayler Saucedo gave up the Yandy walkoff.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#436306) #
It's better to be the third wildcard, I think. You face the Twins rather than the first wildcard.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#436307) #
Kevin Gausman with a tour-de-force.
SK in NJ - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#436308) #
Definitely prefer the 3rd WC spot as well. There is a massive difference between playing the Twins and playing the Rays. Of course if the Jays happen to get the 2nd WC, then it is what it is. You canít worry about who you play, you just have to get in and hope for a hot streak at the right time.

With that said, while they now have the same record, the Jays are essentially a game behind the Mariners due to the tiebreaker. The Jays would have to finish at least one game better than them to finish ahead of them, otherwise a tie goes to the Mís. The one benefit for the Jays chances is that Seattle and Texas play 7 more times the rest of the way, so someone has to lose those games. As long as the Jays hold firm, something like 11-9 to get to 90 wins, they should be fine.
John Northey - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#436309) #
Right now the Jays #1 goal has to be simply make the playoffs - screw positioning. Yeah, the 3rd WC is the best - Round 1 vs Twins, Round 2 vs west winner. Vs #2 getting Tampa round 1, Baltimore round 2. But in the end making it there is what matters most. It'd be interesting if they are a lock for the playoffs going into the final weekend, but can potentially drop to the 3rd slot by getting swept by the Rays - do you blow those games on purpose or do you play normally? Do the Rays put it all into those games to try to avoid the Jays with the strong rotation and potentially solid offense to face a weaker on paper west team?

My main point about other teams is how much worse this year could've been - SD is super frustrating +73 run differential but 8 games sub 500 with 2 teams ahead of them with negative run differentials in their own division one of which is currently in a playoff slot (Arizona 3rd slot) In fact, the 4 teams between them and that final playoff slot all have negative run spreads. Basically the Padres have had a year where everything that can go wrong has: 0-11 in extras, 6-22 in one run games, 30 saves, 25 blown yikes!

Yeah, our Jays are a tease - dancing around the playoffs all year when their talent says they should've dominated the division. But at least they are there unlike those crazy Padres who traded their future for Soto who they have for just 1 more year before free agency hits.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#436310) #
Minnesota Twins W / L record vs. wild-card teams:

4 - 2 vs. Houston
3 - 4 vs. Seattle
3 - 3 vs. Toronto
5 - 2 vs. Texas
3 - 4 vs. Boston

The Twins host Tampa Bay on Monday.

scottt - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#436311) #
As it stands, Seattle has about 80% chance of making it, the Jays 75% and the Rangers about 40%.

Once you get in, the priority becomes setting the rotation order.
At that point, they can recall Manoah and let him and Francis start the remaining games if they want.
I sure want Gausman in the first 2 games. Maybe Berrios in the other. Kikuchi probably moves to the pen.
Ryu could be interesting if on exactly 5 days of rest. Bassitt otherwise.

I'd hate to play a best of 3 at the Trop. Been there, didn't like it.
All they had to do was beat Baltimore in the last game to play Cleveland but they chose to rest their pitchers maybe because they were afraid of their rotation which folded before the Yankees.

Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#436312) #
Oakland issues 3 straight walks and unloads a wild-pitch to give the Texas Rangers a 3 - 2 lead, now in the 8th.
hypobole - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#436313) #
Swanson worked a clean 9th for the Bisons this evening.
John Northey - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#436314) #
Ah well, didn't expect the A's to sweep the Rangers especially given the Rangers had to see that as a must win series. No matter how you cut it the Rangers will see the 4 in Toronto as all being game 7's of a WS - they need a sweep or they are in deep dog doo. Jays up 1 1/2 right now, could be the same, 2 1/2, or 1/2 a game going into those 4. If the Rangers sweep they have a strong hold on the playoffs despite their collapse, if the Jays sweep they are near locks (Rangers would be 4 1/2 to 6 1/2 back of the playoffs), if it goes 3-1 Jays or 3-1 Rangers it is a good race still but slight advantage to whoever wins 3 of 4, a split and the Rangers still have an uphill battle but have the tiebreaker.

No question the Jays see it as a 'we want 3 of 4 here' and a split would be acceptable but not great. Going 1-3 or being swept would be very bad. Funny, pre-season the Texas series looked like a warm up before the main event (3 Boston, 6 NYY, 6 TB) but now it is the main event. Those last 15 will be tough sledding but it'll all be against teams with nothing at stake. Yankees are now 9 back of the Jays, Red Sox 7 back, Jays are 7 1/2 behind the Rays - none of them are making a massive shift outside of season sweeps. Red Sox even with a sweep of the Jays would have a lot more ground to make up, the Yankees could sweep those 6 and get close to the Jays but would still need to catch one of the West teams. The Jays could sweep the 6 vs Tampa...OK, that ain't happening but if it did they'd still be behind them.

#1 is win tomorrow, then worry about Texas. Hopefully Berrios is on tomorrow and can go at least 6, ideally 7 or 8. Perfect world the offense gets it going against the KC ace and it becomes an easy game. Sadly these Jays don't do easy.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#436315) #
If you add up the runs scored between Baltimore and Boston tonight (25), that's a month's worth of runs for Toronto's offence... same for the homers (6) if you exclude Schneider.
John Northey - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#436316) #
C'mon, the Jays offense has been good lately - yeah against bad teams (Colorado, Oakland, and KC), but in September just one game with under 5 runs scored so far. 8 games, 25 runs from Sept 4 to now (5 games), 52 overall this month in 8 games (6.5 per game). The Rangers just scored 3 today and yesterday vs the A's (1 win, 1 loss), had 3 games in a row with 6+ runs (lost 2, won the other in a walkoff), twice scored just 1 run this month (Twins & Houston) - 30 runs over 8 games (under 4 per game). Given they are our #1 competitor right now they are the measuring stick that matters.

Going forward....
Texas: 1 vs A's, 4 @ Toronto, 3 @ Cleveland, 3 vs Boston, 7 vs Seattle (3 home, 4 away), 3 @ LAA.
Jays: 1 vs KC, 4 vs Texas, 3 vs Boston, 6 vs NYY, 6 vs TB (both sets of 6 split home/away 3/3).

Now remember, sub 500's are Cleveland, KC, A's, LAA, Yankees (2 under), with Boston dancing just over it. Seattle, like the Jays & Rangers, are fighting for their playoff lives. Tampa is safe and secure unless the Jays sweep those 6 and play very well otherwise.

So, I'd say the Jays playoff odds are good right now. 3 of 4 from Texas and I'd put them as extremely good.
scottt - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 06:23 AM EDT (#436317) #
Ragans was traded by the Rangers to get Aroldis Chapman.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#436318) #
Wonder if the Jays will chase Yamamoto in the off-season (assuming heís posted by the Orix Buffaloes). He pitched a no-hitter yesterday and is on a 42 inning scoreless streak. 1.26 ERA on the season. 145 Ks and 24 walks in 143 innings.
bpoz - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#436319) #
Thanks for the V good analysis of SD John N. I will add more analysis. SD has given up the fewest runs in the NL. 25 blown saves by SD, 16 blown saves for Toronto. Both SD and Toronto need to score more runs. It is their weakness. Toronto has the lowest runs scored of the top 8 AL teams which is why we are probably walking a tight rope.

Every team is going to have a SD bad luck season. Then there are the lucky teams like AZ, Miami, SF and Cincy. The Cubs may actually be good for a NLC team.

Miami is the worst at scoring & St Louis is 4th worst at run prevention. Both are active trade partners with the Jays.

hypobole - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#436325) #
Red Sox had 23 hits against Orioles pitching yesterday. They still managed to lose the game. 1st time a team has done that since 1930.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#436326) #
Recommend watching Abreu's single with 2 outs in the 9th and the Red Sox down 13-11 and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Story is the runner on second and the decision to hold him ends up being costly.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#436333) #
Mike, I watched the play. I donít think it was a clear-cut decision either way. Sending Story home arguably would have been the right call. But there was a fairly high likelihood he would have been thrown out, either by an average throw or by the throw that was in fact made.

If that had been a Jays runner with equivalent speed in the same situation in game 7 of the World Series, would you send him home? Iím honestly not sure what I would do in an equivalent scenario.

Iím not sure if Valdez (721 OPS) or a stronger PH was on deck at the time. That would be a factor in my decision.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#436337) #
I like the Bichette DH / Clement SS decision today. The Jays probably wonít lose too much defensively or offensively and Bichette gets some extra rest.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#436338) #
5-0 Rays over Mís after 3 innings.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#436339) #
I agree, greenfrog. Hays usually has a good arm, but made a poor throw. I figure that was 50-50.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#436340) #
That's a nice long at bat from George. Ragans now up over 50 pitches and still in the 3rd. push it.
christaylor - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#436341) #
Ragans risk probably lies in his elbow buw but he looks the every bit of Cole Hamels. It always hurts to root for a Royal or Tiger but this kid pitches.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#436342) #
thankfully Berrios seems up to the challenge today.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#436343) #
How many starting pitchers have had a long and successful career after two TJ surgeries? The list canít be that long.
92-93 - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#436344) #
It's good to see Swanson back in the dugout. Now score some runs so they can use Jackson behind Berrios and have 9 fresh relievers for the 4 games vs. Texas.

Two very good ABs from Vladdy so far today, albeit with some umpire help there.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#436345) #
Joey Votto returns for Cincinnati: " Votto was placed on the IL on Aug. 24 due to discomfort in his surgically repaired left shoulder. He returned to the team on Sunday -- his 40th birthday -- after a two-game rehabilitation assignment with Louisville.††"I feel much better than a couple of a weeks ago," Votto said before Sunday's home game. " - ESPN
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#436346) #
interesting that merrifield sat yesterday and varsho sits today. could be they're already getting pushed into some kind of platoon and maybe even less if the bench bats keep it up.
christaylor - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#436347) #
True, ugly. Berrios, maybe because of his blow-up last year, is underrated by Jays fans if he's the second best SP for the majority of the rest of his contract the staff is in good shape. A great move by the FO.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#436348) #
Relief pitcher Jason Frasor had T-J twice and holds the franchise record with 505 games pitched.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#436349) #
I wish Kirk and Merrifield had worked Ragans a bit more in the fifth. Ragansís pitch count isnít that high. He might end up pitching 7-8 innings today.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#436350) #
Kirk had a good at bat, merrifield not so much.

at his current pitch count Ragans is on track for 6ip or so if they let him throw 100 pitches.

Berrios is about a full inning better than him in pitch count so far but that's only an advantage if the manager doesn't have a quick hook.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#436351) #
and then the bottom of the order goes out and does that and maybe gets Ragan another inning worth of pitches. blech.
christaylor - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#436352) #
Your question twigged a memory that I just read a list the other week:

https://www.mlb.com/news/pitchers-to-have-tommy-john-surgery-twice

No doubt the odds are against Ragans but at least he was young and one of the seasons was a more or less a lost season for every pitcher.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#436353) #
ah crap. bear down jose.
Nigel - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#436354) #
Jays back in compliance with MLB rules again:(. Their inability to score runs early in games is just weird. I havenít looked recently but about a month ago they were the third lowest scoring team in the MLB in RS over the first 3 innings (the only metric I could find).
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#436355) #
not sure i would have given witt anything to hit on a 3-1 count there.
Nigel - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#436356) #
Today is a perfect example of the additional strain on the starters brought on by the RD issue. Berrios has thrown about 3 bad pitches in 6 innings and now the high stress pitches start to mount.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#436357) #
crap. welp, top of the order up for the 3rd time. it's on them now.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#436358) #
The AL WC race will be extremely tight after today if the current scores hold up.

Still think the Jays could come back in this one, though.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#436359) #
that's three quality at bats to start the inning at last. credit to Ragans for getting two of them out still.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#436360) #
yeah good inning all around. even if they don't score.

but please score.
Chuck - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#436361) #
Memories of Ankiel.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#436362) #
i mean come on manager protect your young pitcher. this isn't worth it.

what are you doing.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#436363) #
lol
lexomatic - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#436364) #
I'll take this wildness
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#436365) #
I was going to say earlier that Ragans kind of reminded me of Daniel Norris (with better stuff tho). His pitching motion seems to be one that can go wrong pretty badly all of a sudden.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#436366) #
he really should have been pulled after that first wipe out. over 100 pitches in a meaningless game and that was an ugly looking wipe out.

manager didn't even visit the mound.


and oh man Merrifield stinks right now.

christaylor - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#436367) #
Yikes. I hope the Royals have someone like the late, great Harvey Dorfman this kid can chat with asap.

Heck, come to think of it the Jays could use a (or a better) sports psychologist to help Vladdy.
92-93 - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#436368) #
Oakland just tied it up in the 3rd, and the Rangers already have the bullpen up.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#436369) #
Excellent outing from Berrios.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#436370) #
nicely done Berrios.

now it's a battle of the bullpens against the lowly royals for the sweep. with the jays having a very rested pen and an extra inning of at bats left. no excuses whatsoever.


credit to the manager for leaving Berrios in under circumstances where he's been regularly pulling the SP.
92-93 - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#436371) #
I love seeing that reaction from Berrios. Now score him some damn runs.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#436372) #
really thought we'd see Biggio hit for Espinal here.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#436373) #
Boom.

Crazy how good KK has been all year long.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#436374) #
$40m/3yrs for KK get it done?
christaylor - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#436375) #
He has been great -- I hope the FO makes a competitive offer to bring him back for 2024 or even 2025.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#436376) #
oh god why is Yimi up in the pen right now.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#436377) #
mariners lose.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#436378) #
Francis yesterday and Hicks today might have made more sense.

Hopefully we see good Yimi today. The Yimi-Witt and Yimi-Perez matchups make me a bit nervous.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#436379) #
Hicks unavailable, and Garcia is next up behind Romano on Schneider's leverage chart, at least with 3 RHBs up.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#436380) #
is Yimi really our best option here. why did we use Hicks yesterday with a 4 run lead.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#436381) #
You know, I would rather have seen Romano in this inning and Yimi (or Mayza) in the ninth. Because of the quality of opposing hitters.
92-93 - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#436382) #
Really good throws from Kirk today. Schneider needs to keep the tag down longer, though it hasn't mattered.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#436383) #
good play by Schneider was extra good because my low defensive expectations for him didn't think he had a chance.
Chuck - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#436384) #
Legend says that Sal Perez has not reached first base still.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#436385) #
is this Genesis' highest leverage outing as a jay?
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#436386) #
smallball ftw
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#436387) #
John Schneider has had a good game.
jerjapan - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#436388) #
Buckle down, Romano
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#436389) #
recent struggles for Romano/Mayza are starting to get me worried.
jerjapan - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#436390) #
Man, I love September baseball
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#436391) #
Yep. Romano needs a couple of days off after a long outing. He's tired.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#436392) #
and there's that elusive sweep.

Jays move past seattle into 4th AL and 7th MLB. If the Yanks can beat the Brewers in extras we move into 6th in MLB.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#436393) #
and yeah Manager had a good game. though maybe he was a bit forced into it as it seems the bullpen is suddenly short again.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#436394) #
The Texas Rangers come to town for a tiff.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#436395) #
The nice thing about the sweep is that it makes a split with Texas this week acceptable (of course winning 3 or 4 would be better).
Marc Hulet - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#436396) #
Romano was trying to be too cute rather than just firing the FB and challenging the weaker hitters.

Hodgie - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#436398) #
Of course, the Brewers are carrying a no-hitter into the 11th inning and have just pushed across the game's first run.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#436399) #
Well played, LC. Rangers should be all right on the high noon draw, but Blue Jays will have to be evasive.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#436400) #
Two years ago was the trailer. Last year was the movie. This year is a *film festival*.

Definitely gonna play some October baseball.
vw_fan17 - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#436403) #
I felt all along if we could get into the Royals' bullpen without being down too much, we had a chance. Turns out, we got into it tied 2-2, and, as expected, our bullpen (0 runs) outpitched theirs (3 runs).
vw_fan17 - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#436404) #
I agree - the manager should have come out during that wild pitch sequence.

Sure, one wild pitch can happen. After the second one, I would have gone to the bullpen. Kid was probably at his limit (converted to a starter just this year) with 100+ pitches and trying too hard to finish the inning.
uglyone - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#436407) #
yup the yanks come back to win in extras.

Jays now 6th place in MLB.

Next up: Houston 1.5 games ahead in 5th.

Doubt we can finish higher than 5th but I'm not quite ruling out a late run at the rays quite yet.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#436408) #
Seattle has a tough schedule. In addition to 2 series against Texas, they have one against the Astros, and one against the Dodgers. The home nine has a simple task- win most of your games.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#436410) #
Bassitt, Ryu, Kikuchi and Gausman is a nice quartet to throw out against Texas. The two lefties may help neutralize Seager somewhat. And no Jung or Garcia for Texas.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#436415) #
Latest Fangraphs playoff odds:

TB 100%
Houston 98.8%
Toronto 78.5%
Seattle 69.3%
Texas 52.3%
Boston 0.8%
NYY 0.1%

I added the last two teams because, well, it felt good to type those numbers.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#436416) #
If the rotation continues in turn:

vs. TEX - 1 Bassitt / 2 Ryu / 3 Kikuchi / 4 Gausman
vs. BOS - 5 BerrŪos / 1 Bassitt / 2 Ryu

@ NYY - 3 Kikuchi / 4 Gausman / 5 BerrŪos
@ TB - 1 Bassitt / 2 Ryu / 3 Kikuchi

vs. NYY - 4 Gausman / 5 BerrŪos / 1 Bassitt
vs. TB - 2 Ryu / 3 Kikuchi / 4 Gausman
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#436417) #
Houston at 99% is not credible. They are 2 games ahead of Texas and Seattle in the loss column. If they go 7-11 or worse in their last 18 games, there's a pretty good chance that they are out. That's the kind of thing that happens to good teams fairly routinely. One or two ill-timed injuries can do it. We know this from painful experience.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#436418) #
Joey Votto clobbered a 437 ft. home run in the Cincinnati Reds 7 - 1 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, who finished the game with the line score:†1 run, 1 hit, 1 error.
hypobole - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#436419) #
Houston has 18 games left. 6 are vs KC, 3 vs A's. Texas and Seattle have 7 left with each other.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#436421) #
I guess itís because of the number of teams that would have to pass Houston for the Astros to get knocked out. That is, Houston would have to play poorly, and multiple other teams would have to play well enough to surpass themóand do so in the course of a schedule in which there are a lot of head-to-head matchups (in which one Houston rival will win but the other will lose).
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#436422) #
I know. 95% is credible. 99% is not. After the games of September 23, 1964, the Cardinals were in third place 5 games out, with 12 to play. They made up the deficit in 7 days and went on to win the World Series. That was a 99% situation. This is not.

Good teams sometimes go through a bad spell, even when they play bad teams half the time. Injuries usually are an operative factor. The key players for the Astros would be Tucker, Alvarez and Valdez.
SK in NJ - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#436423) #
Huge series sweep. Going 9-3 against the Nationals, Rockies, A's, and Royals was a very good outcome all things considered. Now the tough stretch begins.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#436424) #
Vladdy had some nice patient PAs after Schneider moved into the cleanup role behind him in the order. Is it possible that the mature rook influenced the light-hearted vet? Sure, why not. The human psyche is a mystery. Perhaps John Schneider deserves some credit for trying this batting order for motivational reasons
christaylor - Sunday, September 10 2023 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#436425) #
If I'm not mistaken the simulator for FG takes schedule strength and implicity that teams play one another play into account.

They do 10,000 simulations and out spits the % of times the team made the playoffs. Mike stating your prior probability brings into another definity of probability (Bayesian) that the simulation which is largely Frequently doesn't take into account.

I'm not disagreeing I am partial when looking at those numbers and adjusting them slightly for my own priors. For example I think the Mariners at 70% seems a little high.

Lastly, we've seen with the Jays the FG number can move a ton in about a week.
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#436428) #
Jasson Dominguez is out for the season with a torn UCL. You hate to see a player go down with a serious injury, but this could benefit the Blue Jays, as they have six games remaining against the NYY. Severino, Rizzo, and other Yankee players have already been shut down for the season with injuries.
bpoz - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#436431) #
I thought predicting baseball results was hard. 3 game difference between Houston and Texas with Seattle and Toronto in between.

I do know that Houston has been the best team in the AL for 6 years. Texas and Seattle are streaky. Seattle just had a hot streak and followed with a cold streak as I expected. Texas did the same. Toronto is not streaky they go 2W/1L. But not for a a whole month. If the 1st game is a loss many freak out. Not so much if the 2/3rd game is the loss. I could be wrong.

Seattle vs Texas could go 6-1 which would hopefully knock out 1 team. The Jays are capable of 1 or 2 hot streaks in a season. Now is a good time. October would be even better.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#436432) #
For fun, I checked how the Astros have done in 18 game intervals from the start of the season. They had one 8-10 interval record and one 7-11 interval record among their first four. The 7-11 came when facing the Mets, Guardians, Angels, Jays, Nationals, and Reds.

It doesn't take much- an injury or two and some bad luck. Which is why the playoffs are such a crapshoot.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#436433) #
All right! The Leaside Leafs 9U AAA baseball team won the Ontario Baseball Association (OBA) championship.
Magpie - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#436437) #
Is it possible that the mature rook influenced the light-hearted vet?

Well, he is older.
electric carrot - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#436440) #
I just noticed how eerily similar Bassitt and Berrios' counting stats are:

171.0 156 49 160 3.63
173.1. 152 52 158 3.69

lexomatic - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#436442) #
"Seattle vs Texas could go 6-1"


Wouldn't ideal be TEX dominating SEA, and the Jays sweeping TEX
scottt - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#436443) #
Springer chases. Bo swings at everything. Kirk makes contact weakly on borderline pitches.
Chapman is a disciplined hitter, but once he started to struggle, Vladdy did more or less the same.
Biggio is another guy with discipline, but he's had trouble with the called strikes.

It does seem like Vlad has been trying to be a "see ball/hit ball" kind of hitter, rather than a guy who waits on his pitch.

uglyone - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#436444) #
I still think Bo's approach may have badly influenced Vladdy.

the good news is that since the break, which is now his last 226pa, Vladdy's at an 11.5bb% and 11.9k%. There's been a complete loss of power at the same time, unfortuantely, but if he can stay disciplined and maintain that approach i think the power will come back eventually.
bpoz - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#436445) #
Thanks for your response lexomatic. Texas winning 1 game of 11 is probably a death blow to Texas. I think that is good/safe for Seattle, Toronto and Houston which is my preference.

Actually I was not picking who would win the 6 games. But your post made me think about the "just get in" philosophy as most important. I prefer a "not the last day" situation.
hypobole - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#436446) #
Found this site at BBB last week. Most stuff paywalled, but this on swing decisions is free and interesting.

https://downonthefarm.substack.com/p/a-closer-look-at-swing-decisions
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