Simeon Woods Richardson has been DFA'd. CJ Van Eyk recalled.

I'm not really sure why Vladdy's contract is relevant, but he is being paid 30MM this season.

https://youtu.be/isr4-tsfhsg?si=tm7oWi3f8xiNVguB

https://youtu.be/T1XwDd9Bwdg?si=t24fM7UCFCHEULCZ

https://youtu.be/4Prc1UfuokY?si=D9JlWQkM61tlv49m

I mentioned Vlad's salary as a contrast to his performance and as a comparison to Raleigh who is also being paid more than the value he has provided.

I relied on Google for Vlad's salary. His cash salary is $30M but his payroll amount is $40M. The difference is how the signing bonus allocated to each year. This info is from sportrac. Even more confusing the salary cap hit is $35.7M.

Words have meaning. Vladdy is not being paid 40MM.

I think the salient point is that Vladdy has a very large salary (one of the highest in MLB), yet he has produced very little on-field value. The exact amount of his salary for accounting purposes isn’t especially important in this context.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
38m
Anthony Santander taking swings from both sides of the plate with a view towards returning to the Blue Jays’ OF mix in 2026 per John Schneider. No clear timeline as of now but that’s the goal.

I’m with green frog and Gerry here… not sure why you don’t feel the contract is relevant 92-93 as I’d argue fans rightfully should have higher expectations for players making higher salaries.

Both Fangraphs and Bref have 40M for this year. Vlad's contract is front loaded gradually going to 39M in 2008 and 37M in 2030.
Bichette makes 42M this year.
They're both sitting at 0.6 bWAR. 
At least, they dodged one bullet.

Vladdy is not the only MLB player severely underperforming his outsized contract. Tucker (zero WAR) and Bichette (1.6 WAR) also come to mind, although Bo has turned his season around somewhat (still only 96 wRC+, though).

Tucker’s 2026 AAV is around $57m and Bo’s is $42m.

Imagine he signed for 50M instead of 500M.
What difference would that make right now? 

They're not dumping him.
They're not even dropping him in the batting order.
He doesn't hustle on ground balls and hit buckets of them.
He's always been that way.

I used fWAR for Bo. Interesting that there is such a discrepancy between his bWAR and fWAR this year.

Maybe one lesson from the Vladdy contract is that teams should award big contracts to true two-way players at skill positions like SS (Trea Turner, Mookie Betts). Although Freeman is a first baseman and he’s been phenomenally productive in his long career, so it’s hard to generalize. Sometimes you extend a Freeman and sometimes you extend a Prince Fielder.

Another lesson might be: don’t award massive player contracts for marketing reasons. Freeman was hugely popular but Atlanta still let him walk. Billy Beane had to do this with the A’s as well. Sometimes you have to make the tough decision for the right reasons and own it.

I’m not saying we can draw conclusions yet about Vladdy’s contract. But I bet the front office would let him walk if they could go back in time and see this season’s performance coming.

Freeman was hugely popular but Atlanta still let him walk.

Which was a mistake!

Timing is everything with these contracts. 6 months ago nobody was complaining about the Vlad contract.

Trea Turner has negative WAR this year btw.

Jameson Taillon starts for Buffalo tonight.

There were rumours that the FO didn't want to resign him but ownership stepped in.

With their large payroll, the Blue Jays could probably stick to small-to-medium-large contracts (maybe maximum around Dylan Cease level) and consistently field very good teams. Tampa does it with way less money.

Not sure what is up with Turner this year, but he was terrific from 2023-2025 and his contract is significantly smaller than Vladdy’s. Even if he’s now toast, his contract will not have been that bad as far as FA contracts go.

Timing is everything…Vladdy negotiated his extension when he had maximum leverage. He extracted every possible dollar from Rogers. Prior to the signing, Jeff Passan thought $300m would be about the right amount (given that Vladdy is a first baseman).

If the Jays had let Vlad get to free agency last year he would have been coming off an historic post season with vibes at the all time high. I don’t know if other teams would have paid him what he got given the emergence of a crop of 1B last year, but I think the general sentiment and season ticket sales would have been heavily damaged losing Bo and Vlad in one fell.

I think the contract always had risk. I hope the underlying issues get sorted, but I think there’s good reason for concern in the long run- but I am not much more concerned about it than I was when it was signed and he was barely a year removed from the same “what’s wrong with him” think pieces every other day.

The Blue Jays front office did well to sign Cease, Ponce, Okamoto, Rogers in the offseason instead of Tucker, Bo, Diaz (all of whom are having bad-to-dreadful seasons while being paid enormous sums of money).

Coupled with some trades like Varland, Valenzuela, and Bateman, the front office has upped their game, in my opinion. The team’s poor performance this season is due to Vladdy cratering and a slew of injuries happening, which is not the FO’s fault.

Truth is vlad had a playoffs run for the ages and especislly since ownership pushed the contract it doesn’t actually hurt us in any way.

“It doesn’t hurt us in any way”

1. Opportunity cost for that money
2. Roster limitations (for example the discussion re: Keys)
3. Line up limitations

1. Opportunity cost for that money
-----> Do you honestly think this ownership group (or any) would spend that 40,000,000 elsewhere just for the sake of it? If they didn't have Vlad they probably would have a payroll 40,000,000 lower. No opportunity cost.

2. Roster limitations (for example the discussion re: Keys)
-----> If you're argument is that Vlad is costing Sean Keys playing time then it's not a very good argument.

3. Line up limitations
-----> this would be on the manager not a struggling player who's forced to his 2nd or 3rd in a line up

Cy Young race is very close, Cease (2.34 ERA, 100th percentile Pitching Run Value) versus Schlittler (2.10 ERA, 98th percentile Pitching Run Value). Cease has higher K and BB rates, Cam has thrown slightly more innings. Cease is the more electric pitcher, while Schlittler is more precise and FB-reliant.

Still a month to go.

3-0 KC over Cle, 9th inning

Vladdy hit a deep-ish line drive to right-centre. That is good, but his body still looked stiff and awkward during his swing.

Cease is within 1 QS of Cam, a very important stat for the voters I'm sure.

Almost a perfect night on the out-of-town scoreboard.

A's came back to take the O's to extras but couldn't finish them off.

Looking ahead - I think they should go with Cease & Soriano on regular rest next week and beyond. Why?

Because you get both of them into the Cleveland series and the 1st Baltimore series, both in the Texas series, and Cease into the 2nd O's series. Plus you line up Cease for the game one of a WC series and Soriano for game two.

If the last game matters you have the option of Cease on 3 days rest to try and get in. But barring that neither of them would get an extra start, you're just manipulating things to get them in against the teams in front of you. Either way, both of them would only get the extra day once. Either this next week, or the next-to-last week.

Vladdy negotiated his extension when he had maximum leverage. He extracted every possible dollar from Rogers.
Just imagine if he'd waited until after the 2025 World Series to negotiate a deal. He probably could have added another hundred million, and every Jays fan on the planet would have thought it was worth it.

Possibly. But that wouldn’t have been an extension. It would have been a FA signing.

I have to believe Vladdy can turn this around. He’s 27 and has a long track record of hitting in the majors (career 132 wRC+).

"and every jays fan on the planet would have thought it was worth it."

Don't know about that. I gave a thumbs down to his present contract and advocated to trade Vladdy and redirect the money elsewhere - Vladdy may bounce back and have a couple of big years but I don't think his body will age well and the back half of that contract will be a killer.

It seems clear that giving Vladdy a big contract was Plan C for the front office.

Plan A: Ohtani
Plan B: Soto
Plan C: Vladdy

There is no way they were going to award a $500-700m contract to more than one player.

Rogers cares more about optics than they do about practically anything else baseball related aside from attendance. It's impossible to know whether Vlad (and the Jays team) has the same success in 2025 had he not been signed to an extension, but Rogers would have given Vlad "Ohtani money" if he were a FA after that historic playoff run. The Jays are probably better off that they extended him before that, because the price may have exceeded $500M (from Rogers) had they waited and the season played out the same way. Vlad already leveraged the least team-friendly contract is sports. He would have had more leverage in November 2025.

Cease and Soriano go against cleveland. Unfortunately so does arrighetti.

Smith and Mantiply likely available for Cleveland too.

Yes — just as Judge had maximum leverage when he hit free agency. But the debate *before* his final pre-FA season was how much the Yankees should have offered him in extension talks. The Yankees lowballed him, and he proceeded to free agency (and then cashed in). The Blue Jays ultimately did not lowball Vladdy in extension talks — they offered him $500m. I think Cashman offered Judge $210m.

Congratulations Buck Martinez!  # 13.

A ceremony worthy of the man. Great stuff.

lol bateman!

Great running by Bateman, the pitcher had no clue.

Blue Jays really needed a hit from Okamoto there.

so bateman is ichiro 2.0.

pretty cool.

now's the time, vladdy.

ALEJANDRO ANDELE ANDELA ARIBA ARIBA

oof. best contact vladdy's made in a while. tough.

So did Bateman's aggressive running inspire Kirk? Speed works, and it is only too aggressive if you are caught.

Soriano was pretty wicked today. That could've been 7 shutout innings with a bit of luck.

8th hardest ball of the mlb season.

ballsy call bringing in Flu here. could've just gone to varland.

nice.

good call, chief.

fluharty is turning into a legitimate late inning guy.

Clutch pitching by Rogers and Fluharty.

that's a really good win.

did Buck proud.

Big win…important win

Great game.
Another win by the smallest of margin with a top starter.
The challenge is to win with the other 3 guys.

Great win. Fun to see the new guys continue to contribute

There is much to learn about Bateman but one thing that I am sure of - his baseball IQ is high.

1.5 back

Currently:

Cle
Tor 1.5
Bal 1.5
Tex 1.5

Very close race for WC3

Luis Robert Jr would be a nice pickup over Daz Cameron as a right handed hitting solid defensive outfielder.

A strict Lukes/ Robert platoon in RF looks pretty good to me next to Bateman in CF.

Robert has mashed LHP in his career, whereas Cameron is a lottery ticket that just happens to hit right handed. Robert would make a lot of sense.

Robert Jr has a 143 wRC+ this month. Still has 90th percentile speed. Could be a good bat to add for Sept/Oct.

Not many people lower than us in the standing have either the need or the financial ability the Jays have.

$3m remaining salary, $20m team option that costs $2m to buyout. So $5m.

Down goes Texas.

Way to go, Buck! 
Wish I could have been at the game to get a bobblehead.. They're already $150+ on ebay.

Seems funny how the playoffs work - WC3 is a LOT better than WC2 - WC2 has to play the Yankees (Boston-Yankees most likely), WC3 plays whoever 'wins' the west (Houston leading Texas by 2 with a 500 record, Seattle 4 back)

The race is getting weird. Jays and O's just 1 1/2 back, Texas 2, Seattle & Minny 4 back, Tigers 4 1/2, and now KC after an insanely hot stretch has moved within 6 1/2. KC is very unlikely to sneak in, but it could happen. This is such a snail race anything is possible.

Can we call the Blue Jays 2026 trade deadline one of the most impactful or the most impactful since Price/Tulo?

Baltimore won. But then. it's the A's.

Then they get the Rockies next week, so we're not going to be rid of them for a minute.

But from there it's Boston, Cleveland, at Toronto and the Mets (who've been playing better recently), Brewers, Jays, and Yankees.

So if they make it they will have earned it, but I don't think they will.

"Can we call the Blue Jays 2026 trade deadline one of the most impactful or the most impactful since Price/Tulo?"

I don't know if it is one of the most impactful, but it is certainly the quickest return on investment for a sell off. Conventional wisdom is I think the Jays did do a trade dealine sell off, but they have played better since then at least in part due to the pieces they've picked up.

Continues the trend of our front office being a strong one, especially in terms of evaluating and picking up major league and near major league talent.

It's still a race to .500.
Cleveland is there.
The Jays are 3 games under.

It wouldn't surprise me if it ends in a tie.
The second tie breaker is the intradivision record.

Impact:

Vladdy (515 PA): 0.6 fWAR
Bateman (83 PA): 0.8 fWAR

Bateman’s true value will become clearer after a season or two. I don’t know sustainable his offensive approach is. Right now he has a .424 BABIP. Obviously his speed can be a difference-maker.

Nigel suggested a Brett Butler comp. Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez are a couple of other LH batters of similar stature and approach who come to mind. If Bateman can be a “lite” version of one of those hitters while playing good CF defense, he could be a very valuable player for the Blue Jays. But it’s very early days in his career.

$3m remaining salary, $20m team option that costs $2m to buyout. So $5m.

The MLBTR article on Robert Jr. being waived mentioned that the Mets would save an additional 110% luxury tax penalty of an additional 5+ million (so >10 mil) if someone claimed him.

Given the Jays similar luxury tax penalty situation, I presume they would be in a similar claiming situation (the additional 110% overage penalty brings Robert Jr.'s prorated claiming cost closer to 10+ million for Sept, not 5).

I know many here hate when anyone considers Rogers' bottom line. But I can see why Atkins, Shapiro & the bean counters might balk at adding another 10-11 million in payroll obligations for a month's worth of a marginal upgrade on a waiver claim during a low-probability Wild Card run.

Claiming LRJ would be a bit of a Hail Mary, but it’s possible to envision the Blue Jays making a bit of a postseason run with a still-hot LRJ in the middle of the order — if Vladdy also got hot and Yesavage returned to the rotation.

Bateman’s true value will become clearer after a season or two. I don’t know sustainable his offensive approach is. Right now he has a .424 BABIP. Obviously his speed can be a difference-maker.

I noted on the broadcast the other night that Bateman only stole his second bag of the month & his nascent career. So while his speed has been a boon, the positive contributions so far haven't been in the classic form of a high-groundball, high OBP, pesky basestealer profile.

It's also interesting that Bateman's positive contributions are more complementary than on the boxscore.

He's been leading off & starting everyday regardless of platoon advantage for his first month.

But the guy he replaced was until this year arguably the best CF defender in the league. Varsho also had sneaky power up until his awful 2026 whereas Bateman has none. Varsho was also very skilled in bunting for a basehit, though he shelved that weapon for the most part the last two years due to leg injuries & his power surge.

It seems Bateman is contributing to the Jays in small ways that add up in the aggregate: above average defense, contact ability, ability to hit without the platoon advantage, added value from taking the extra base, some cheeky baseball IQ.

It would be stunning to see Rogers spend that kind of money to upgrade the wrong side of a platoon for a month. If their scouts/internal metrics tell them to play Robert Jr. semi-regularly because there’s a chance his option for ‘27 has value to them, that changes the equation.

Even though Logan Gilbert has a career’s worth of reverse splits it’s still interesting to see Straw in the lineup over Sanchez. It feels like a good time to give Clement the day off to give him two in a row before a pivotal series.

Second year in a row a low expectations kid has given the Jays a much needed BABIP-fueled boost.

2025 Joey Loperfido: 104 PA, 148 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, 0.53 WPA
.431 BABIP, highest of 461 players with 100+ PA's.

Brett Bateman: 83 PA, 116 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR, 0.35 WPA
.424 BABIP, 3rd highest of 463 players with 80+ PA's

Also noticed the player with the highest BABIP in that group of 463, with 102 PA's and a .491 BABIP is Samad Taylor. Was looking forward to watching him when we played the Padres, but he got injured just prior.

LRJ has been OK against RHP in his career (101 wRC+, compared to 136 wRC+ against LHP). You could leave him in against a wrong-side reliever, unlike, say, Jesus Sanchez.

In any case, if the Blue Jays were to make a run this year (which may be improbable), they could face a number of quality LH pitchers in September and the postseason.

LRJ has been very up and down in recent seasons, so he could end up being a dud in any event. The Blue Jays front office presumably has a good sense of where he’s currently at in terms of health and productivity.

Luxury tax implications are a good point pooks. Would we be counting the aav or the remainder?

As for Sanchez i don't think he's unplayable ij the field despite the hilarity this year but it safe to say we'll never see him start when scherzer is on the mound.

IIRC the Jays trades at the deadline got them just under the second luxury tax threshold. If they were to pick up an expensive player, even for a month, it could move their salaries up over the threshold and send them ten picks down in the draft and increase the financial taxes.

With the day off tomorrow, a pitcher being added Tuesday, and the entire bullpen available except maybe Fluharty, it should be all hands on deck for Captain Schneider today. He can be really aggressive with his Scherzer pull if need be.

.424 is obviously unsustainable but Bateman might actually have the makings of a legit high-babip hitter.

He was only a good not great babip guy for most of his milb career (.330-.360, which usually gets knocked down a good bit in mlb), but he popped this year in AAA up to .393 over a good sample, which even if it gets knocked down in mlb still gives a shot at being a .350 type in mlb which is elite.

His approach and speed is clearly the type that would make high babip possible - but i wonder if he doubled down this year on this kind of approach, really selling out on contact over power, which might explain his babip jump in both aaa and mlb. (And might explain the FO's targetting of him).

Or maybe it's just a babip fluke i dunno.

I will start advocating for rituals to Jobu once again in the game threads as has been done in the past in these parts, if Vladdy doesn't break out of his funk today.

Jobu Jobu Jobu...bring us a Vladdy HR to break this 2026 curse for him.

Anybody have a more accurate visualization than gamecast?
Looks like a bunch of strikes got called balls and Scherzer coulda struck out the first 2 hitters on 3 pitches each. I'll take 3 Ks on 14 pitches,though.

I have half a bottle of Guyanese rum to contribute to the cause.

Stay hot Alejandro Kirk!

That was an excellent take by a guy likely to hit into a DP, but who needs steals when you hit dingers.

Great AB Lukes, though he seemed to benefit by a blown strike call.

That was exactly the first inning the Blue Jays needed. Secured the early lead and significantly elevated Gilbert’s pitch count.

Great start.

Would be a nice time for a classic mad max throwback

I think the outing in Florida relit the fire in Scherzer.

Jobu Jobu Jobu we offer you Guyanese rum to help us turn Vladdy around...

Max power.

The Blue Jays have let Gilbert off the ropes since the first inning. They need to do a better job at the plate starting with Vladdy.

https://www.sportarmy.com/products/max-scherzer-toronto-blue-jays-mlb-nike-white-home-replica-jersey?srsltid=AfmBOoroxDLafEgpsbkHqDUKfBat7Q67Dve59OgZZpqE-WfD0Yi5tawe

Jobu Jobu Jobu... in you we entrust the recoery of our sweet Vladdy to return to Vladdy Daddy mode.

Thank you thank you Jobu, we will serve you more sacrifices... for the eternal improvement and return of Vladdy daddy.

Hats keep bats warm.

jobu Jobu Jobu, we are providing more Guyanese rum...

After losing 2/3 to KC they pretty much needed a sweep of SEA, and they got it.

It's been an excruciating season but they're somehow still alive.

Here, we go.
Very meaningful baseball in September.

They might have sunk the Mariners for good.

42 years old and he does that? One of the more noteworthy starts in Blue Jays history. Memorable.

Feels good man.


I still fancy the mariners to take the west tbh.

Any news on Urias lately? With Clement really struggling, would love to see him back although it’ll probably be Smith that gets some infield time in September.

How about that Max Scherzer, eh?

That was just the kind of game - both ways - they've really needed.

dalimon5's calling on Jobu has me sold. I have been biting my nails (figuratively). Great win and pitching by Max.

It wasn't Jobu who provideth. Max provideth.

Why do you tempt Jobu with such silly talk? Jobu blessed Max on this day. Offer up a sacrifice for more.

Big series sweep. They really need to go on a prolonged winning streak. Hopefully this carries over to the next series.

24 regular season games left. What will it take for the Blue Jays to secure WC3? Maybe 15-9 would do it? 16-8? Hard to say for sure. Any one of the teams in the mix could get hot over the next month and push past the others.

The Santander story intrigues me. You wonder with expanded rosters, if the Jays would DFA Sanchez in order to fit him into the mix the last week or two of the season. A resurgent Santander coming out of nowhere to hit home runs in the final week of the season to help carry the Jays into the playoffs would be very 2026 Jays.

Vladdy shows no sign of coming out of his slump - that "hit" today was really a gift error and this is really holding back the team - would never happen but I think Sean Keys may be more productive the rest of this season.

hybobole/dalimon5 How are you/me and all bauxites going to handle a very tense Sept?

Back in the 1900's the wife/gf of the Atlanta owner was praying/hoping for WS success in each game. They got 1 championship.

Passion is the right of all fans. Of course we cannot agree on how.

I'm pumped for this playoff push. I don't think the Red Sox have a WC spot sealed and it wouldn't surprise me to see them fall apart and for teams like Toronto and Cleveland to take the 2nd and 3rd WC.

Story and Anthony are back and that isn't necessarily the best news...might take them a month just to get warmed up.

Jays are within 2 games of .500 for the 1st time since June 24th.

I'd make room for keys by putting george in lf.

"A resurgent Santander"

Hard to imagine from a legendary slow-starter

I would keep Springer at DH and add Robert Jr to play LF against LHP and some RHP. Robert Jr would also be good insurance against any further injuries to Springer or another OF.

Keys is intriguing but this is Sept/Oct baseball. Having a veteran power bat would help. And Robert Jr can still run and play defense. He would make the lineup more intimidating to face.

Wouldn’t Robert cost close to $8M this year given their luxury tax situation.

They aren’t doing that for one month with 24% playoff odds.

25.4% playoff odds, and given that a marginal win could make all the difference in the tight WC3 race, and that the WC3 spot is actually a favourable one to secure this year, why not go for it (and further energize the revenue-producing fan base across Canada)?

It really depends on if it pushes them back 10 spots in the draft or not. Someone said yesterday they are below that penalty level after the trade deadline.

Wildcard odds

CLE 26.8%
TOR 25.4%
BAL 21.2%

Fwiw Keys is probably the best hitter in all AAA this year for anyone with a decent sample size (say 150pa+ or maybe even less - Keys is at 225pa).

Youngest guy in the top 10. One of the lowest babips too.

bpoz, we're so excited. And we just can't hide it. We're about to lose control. And we think we like it.

"Someone said yesterday they are below that penalty level after the trade deadline."

They are not, by all public reports. RR has them at $311,650,066. The new system at MLBTR has them (according to one of their writers) around $315 million. Sportrac has them at almost $316m

Which is over $304mm which is the third threshold by a comfortable enough margin that the August trades (which are already accounted for) couldn't get them under. And of course what remains on LRJ has no CBT implication other than the amount of their tax penalty.

But more to the point...

"It really depends on if it pushes them back 10 spots in the draft or not"

That penalty accrues at the SECOND threshold, which is $284mm, which is WAY in the rearview.

As an aside, a lottery pick is protected from that penalty, but that's not the topic at hand.

In that case go get Mr Robert Jr.

Now that August has finished, some wRC+ numbers for the month (Minimum 50 Plate Appearance's):

Kirk: 160 - clearly the MVP of August (1.5 WAR)
Springer: 141 - Another solid month for him
Bateman: 127 - Concerning thing here is a wOBA of .351 but an xwOBA of .273. Solid producer so far though, just not sure how sustainable it is.
Sanchez: 120 - But 0.0 WAR because of negative value base running and D
Straw: 105 - Solid month. 0.4 WAR and 83 PA
McAdoo: 101 - Really tailed off recently though
Okamoto: 100
Gimenez: 94
Lukes: 81
Vlad: 59 - Just another really tough month for him
Clement: 33 - Is he a regular or better suited as a part-time player?

Team: 99 for the month so almost league average but an xwOBA of .289 which was 2nd last in the AL.

Who will finish September as the monthly leader in wRC+? Easy money is on Kirk or Springer but I'm guessing there's an unsung hero to come.

Jays D was #1 in the AL in August which is great to see and the pitching was in the top half as well. Need the bats to get going at some point which perhaps gives more reason to pick up Robert Jr. despite the large salary remaining.

I think it would be criminal not to at least place a claim.

Might help get Vladdy going too.

Just my thought. I’d be giving Keys another shot before adding another jr.

I think the Jays are easy odds-on favorites to make the playoffs if Vlad has a September/end-of-the-year this year like last year. Our chances are good even with him continuing to struggle, but MVP VLAD would be a great fit for the team.

I'm on board the Keys over Robert Jr. train as well.

Honestly not convinced Robert would outhit Keys over a 100 PA sample.

Look ma, I can count.  Bateman made 19 starts in August, not 25.  

Something else worth mentioning about yesterday- their first win on a Sunday since June 7th

If Keys hadn't been up already I'd want to see him get the chance instead of Robert Jr but he came up and struggled badly with offspeed. He looked completely overmatched.

There's probably a very easy way to claim Robert Jr and call up Keys if the manager is willing to field Springer in the OF. I'd be most interested in this version of events barring some imminent reinstatement of Santander.

Keys will struggle against left-handed pitching, and Robert Jr crushes lefties. I am completely fine running with an outfield of Keys (L), Bateman (L), Lukes (L), Straw (R) and Robert Jr. (R).

For the record, Guerrero Jr. hit .313/.364/.414 in September of last year.  The team scored almost 5 runs per game that month, with Springer (.347/.434/.663) leading the way.  Vladdy was indeed all-World in the playoffs.  

I'm very intrigued to see if any contender picks up Robert Jr or who he will sign with if that doesn't happen. As I said yesterday, I believe the only way the Jays claim him is if they believe there's a decent chance they want to pick up his option for '27.

Cameron and McAdoo don't exactly have a lock on a roster spot at the moment. Smith probably replaces McAdoo soon.

Cameron could go down and both Robert and Keys added.

I'll echo Mike here in that Vlad was good but not amazing last September. He had a wRC+ of 119 which is solid but below his career average.
To Mike's point, Springer was absolutely on fire with a 201 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR.

I predict we'll see a few moves as Uglyone has alluded to.

Daz Cameron and McAdoo down with Smith, Robert Jr. and Keys coming up.

Could be. I think the front office will put in a claim if they think LRJ moves the needle in terms of making and/or advancing in the postseason. Another postseason appearance/run would keep fan interest and revenues high this season and entering next season. Ownership has already spent over $300m on payroll this year. Going a bit higher to make the season a successful one shouldn’t be an insurmountable barrier.

On the other hand, if they think Cameron, Keys et al. can do as good a job as LRJ going forward, then there is no real reason to claim LRJ.

Some mainstream media are picking up on Shoeless Joe’s initial suggestion on this site on Saturday that the Blue Jays claim LRJ.

Yesterday Mitch Bannon posted an article in The Athletic, “The Blue Jays should consider claiming Luis Robert Jr. off waivers. Here’s why.” The article recaps some of the points mentioned in this thread.

The question is what is the optimal lineup? Key's is a DH/1B/emergency 3B - he ain't going into the OF this year, they might try it in spring. They did try 3 games in LF (24 1/3 innings, 3 PO, 0 assists, 0 errors - tells very little) in Buffalo but at just 1 play per game I'd suspect his range/jumps were poor (as expected) and you don't want to do that in September when trying to get to the playoffs (Sanchez is nightmare enough).

• C: Kirk/Valenzuela obviously
• 1B: Vlad (like it or not), Okamoto & McAdoo getting time there too
• 2B: Clement/McAdoo
• 3B: Okamoto (some Clement/McAdoo if needed)
• SS: Gimenez/Clement
• LF: Sanchez/Cameron (Straw mixed in)
• CF: Bateman (Straw & Lukes mixed in)
• RF: Lukes (Straw, Bateman, Sanchez mixed in)
• DH: Springer
• Bench: Straw-McAdoo-Valenzuela-Cameron

If Robert Jr is signed odds are Cameron is the odd guy out or McAdoo. Cameron after that hot start is 1-13 (a single, 0 walks) and has no options left. I could see the Jays putting Cameron on waivers to send to AAA, no big loss if gone (49 wRC+ now). The question is do you think Robert Jr is worth an extra $8 mil? If he adds 1 win then the answer is yes. Back in '23 he was a 5 WAR player, but never close to that otherwise. Over 1000 PA since then 2.4 fWAR 87 wRC+ 223/291/377 line, but solid defense in CF (just 63 innings in LF). A 100 wRC+ vs LHP this year (94 vs RHP) - 136/101 lifetime. Seems a LOT to spend for what is probably a small gain overall, but any gain right now is hard to get. Key's I don't see as a realistic guy to be added except as a PH for September maybe. It all depends on what the Jays scouts see in Robert and if he could add that critical extra W between now and seasons end vs Cameron. I lean towards 'no' but the Jays braintrust might see more there than I do, plus it depends on the team budget.

Another on the waiver wire is Trevor Williams - sucked as a starter for awhile but in 8 games was fairly effective for Washington out of the pen (17 IP 22 K vs 6 BB) but just an 89.9 mph fastball - so he'd be another different look in the pen if desired. CJ Van Eyk could easily be sent back to Buffalo to make room.

The claiming window for LRJ will close in a few hours. If any team is planning on claiming him, hard to understand why they haven't done so already.

Elsewhere, it's the Tristan Peters long weekend at Fangraphs.
The Winkler Manitoba native headlined both Laurila's Sunday Notes and a Jay Jaffe piece today.

Mitch Bannon mentioning Robert is interesting. He's pretty connected to the Jays based on his reporting lately. I'd be surprised if the Jays claimed him, it's a lot of money for a one month rental + buyout (no chance they pick up the 2027 option), but he'd certainly help the team down the stretch.

Could there be some negotiating happening? As in, the Blue Jays consider a claim but only if the Mets eat part of LRJ’s remaining salary? Would that be permissible?

Orioles are claiming Robert Jr.

AAA hitters, minimum 120pa:


1. 1B S.Keys (23): 226pa, 14.2b%, 20.4k%, .333bip, .303avg, .319iso, 170wrc+
2. 1B J.Gonzalez (24): 239pa, 13.8b%, 20.5k%, .338bip, .320avg, .355iso, 169wrc+
3. C D.Cavanaugh (24): 137pa, 13.1b%, 24.8k%, .425bip, .330avg, .241iso, 165wrc+
4. DH M.Gasper (30): 242pa, 17.4b%, 16.1k%, .377bip, .337avg, .230iso, 164wrc+
5. 3B P.Wisdom (34): 299pa, 11.4b%, 25.4k%, .299bip, .299avg, .425iso, 162wrc+
6. 1B N.Kavedas (27): 222pa, 20.3b%, 29.3k%, .440bip, .309avg, .280iso, 156wrc+
7. OF C.Morel (27): 139pa, 9.4b%, 23.7k%, .325bip, .309avg, .350iso, 155wrc+
8. OF C.Ingle (24): 400pa, 19.3b%, 23.0k%, .365bip, .300avg, .237iso, 155wrc+
9. 1B B.Eldridge (21): 137pa, 14.6b%, 29.9k%, .485bip, .333avg, .184iso, 155wrc+
10. OF P.Clohisy (24): 156pa, 12.8b%, 21.8k%, .459bip, .358avg, .149iso, 154wrc+


Keys arguably the best hitter in all AAA this year, which arguably makes him the best hitter in all milb this year.

It's not babip fuelled like most others here, and he's younger than all of them other than Eldridge (who's rocking a .485babip).

No guarantee that Keys hits in mlb this year, but it's really hard not to call him up when you're a team in a playoffs race in need of offense.

to state the obvious, orioles claim means the jays passed on him.

I mean, if the plan is to bring Keys in and sit Vladdy for a week, sure.. Otherwise - where do you put him? We have plenty of LHB already, maybe too many. We need someone who can be dangerous against LHP / pinch-hit, etc. Keys ain't that.

Were the O's ahead or behind the Blue Jays in the standings when LRJ was put on waivers? That would determine who had priority, I think.

I'd put Springer in LF for the most part to make room for Keys.

Baltimore was behind Toronto on August 29th before games were played. They had less wins and more losses therefore they picked before Toronto on the waiver wire.

The priority order for an MLB waiver claim is determined by the standings on the day the waiver period expires and the claim is actually awarded (today, Monday), rather than the day the player was first placed on waivers (Saturday)

Thanks

This is from Bannon’s piece:

“When a player is placed on waivers, the other 29 teams have the opportunity to claim them before they clear and are removed from the club’s 40-man roster. The claim priority is decided by reverse winning percentage at the time claims are processed, meaning the Jays are tied for 13th in the queue with the St. Louis Cardinals. Toronto would, however, get priority over other contenders that could use a righty outfielder, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers.”

Both Jays and O's are on 3 game win streaks. No change in standings in that time.

So Toronto passed on him. Surprising. When do we get the Keys news?

Most of the jays hitters are creeping back up to their preseason projections:


Projected Starters

Close to projections

LF Sanchez 420pa, 106wrc+ ---> 288pa, 109wrc+ (+3)
3B Okamoto 560pa, 111wrc+ ---> 543pa, 111wrc+ (--)
C Alejandro 495pa, 116wrc+ --> 238pa, 115wrc+ (-1)
2B Clement 644pa, 97wrc+ ---> 535pa, 93wrc+ (-4)
DH Springer 595pa, 120wrc+ ---> 440pa, 112wrc+ (-8)
CF Varsho 595pa, 102wrc+ ---> 365pa, 92wrc+ (-10)

Moderately below

SS Gimenez 595pa, 95wrc+ ---> 436pa, 78wrc+ (-17)

Bigly below

1B Guerrero 679pa, 148wrc+ ---> 520pa, 93wrc+ (-55)
RF Barger 518pa, 109wrc+ ---> 28pa, 1wrc+ (-108)


Projected Bench

UT Lukes 294pa, 108wrc+ ---> 364pa, 101wrc+ (-7)
OF Straw 182pa, 72wrc+ ---> 273pa, 78wrc+ (+6)
IF Schneider 322pa, 106wrc+ ---> 140pa, 70wrc+ (-36)
C Valenzuela 13pa, 68wrc+ ---> 241pa, 94wrc+ (+26)


Both Smith (122) and Urias (123) gave us a nice boost, and those two plus Schneider have combined to give us a 91wrc+, so were on our way to mitigating Schneider's underperformance, but both were injured quickly. Tho we also wasted time with Sosa, which amplified the underperformance. But given Valenzuela's overperformance, it's hard to say the projected bench has done much different than expected. And Smith at least and maybe Urias too should be back from injury and hopefully at least one of them can pick up where they left off.


Bateman has given us a big jolt in the starting lineup, and now him and Varsho combined this year have given us a 99wrc+, which is pretty much bang on Varsho's preseason projection, so no real hit there now.

Gimenez is what he is, and that "underperformance" is probably baked in at this point.

so the two big outstanding differences from the preseason projections are getting pretty isolated - Vladdy's massive underperformance, and Barger's injury.

We just have to hope on vladdy getting hot

The best way to fill in the Barger gap might be promoting Keys. Maybe.

Offense has definitely gone gangbusters again. Over their last 4 series (TBR, NYY, KCR, SEA):


Season Pre-last 14days: 4486pa, 3.9runs/gm, .280babip, .241avg, .301obp, .130iso, 89wrc+
Previous 14days: 535pa, 3.8runs/gm, .286babip, .237avg, .300obp, .103iso, 79wrc+

​
Last 14 days: 459pa, 4.7runs/gm, .314babip, .286avg, .344obp, .180iso, 128wrc+


Players:

DH Springer 42pa, .567babip, 267wrc+
3B Okamoto 50pa, .226babip, 172wrc+
CF Bateman 45pa, .517babip, 167wrc+
RF Lukes 42pa, .240babip, 154wrc+
C Alejandro 47pa, .278babip, 148wrc+
LF Straw 33pa, .333babip, 138wrc+
SS Gimenez 26pa, .261babip, 55wrc+
1B Guerrero 34pa, .194babip, 43wrc+
2B Clement 42pa, .257babip, 33wrc+

UT Sanchez 21pa, .417babip, 138wrc+
OF Cameron 21pa, .214babip, 39wrc+
IF McAdoo 31pa, .286babip, 42wrc+
C Valenzuela 16pa, .250babip, 92wrc+

UT Smith 9pa, .400babip, .276wrc+

Seems like it really comes down to Vladdy now. If he performs in September (say, 750+ OPS though ideally better than that), the team should be well-placed to make a run at WC3. If he is 600 OPS Vladdy then I think they’ll probably fall short.

Keys could provide a boost a la Bateman and McAdoo, but I would be very curious to know what the front office thinks of his underlying metrics. Is he a potential breakout guy or more of a AAAA player?

I don't know for sure, but I think their somewhat aggressive promotions of Keys this year (not underserved, but arguably quick) at the expense of older guys having good years, probably indicates they think his underlyings are more promising than most.

A good sign for a hitter is how they do after a demotion. Since going down on July 23rd Key's has hit 314/432/570. Pre-promotion to the majors he hit 281/403/719 in AAA (77 PA) so he didn't slump, just less power but better average and OBP. If Vlad or Springer go down he should be up, but otherwise no real place to use him. Just a 27 OPS+ in 37 PA in the majors not enough time to know, not 'wow' enough to force it. He should be option A for DH next year, but Santander probably is right now.

In addition to vladdy, huge keys would also be Yesavage and Bieber if they can get healthy.

The pitching staff looks elite overall with them in it, led by one of the very best SP and best RP in the game.

After being one out away from a WS the Jays should have never passed on Robert Jr and give another contender a shot at him.

i guess we might as well check....


Luis Robert Jr

This Year: 218pa, 96wrc+, 1.4war650
Two Years: 649pa, 88wrc+, 1.8war650
Projected: 87pa, 97wrc+, 2.2war650

It's so wild that we have been reduced to begging for Vladdy to get back to a .750 OPS guy. That's a .350/.400 or .330/420 hitter. What kind of rum does Jobu prefer?

>The claim priority is decided by reverse winning percentage at the time claims are processed,

Are we sure the Jays passed on Robert Jr? For example, if the claims were processed after the Jays won, but before the Oriole's last game was finished, they would have been statistically tied at 1.5 games behind, but the Orioles, at 67-69 would have been just slightly below the Jays at 68-70 (0.49264 vs 0.49275). So timing matters. Probably the same at any point during the last 3 wins for both clubs.

AFAICT, the claims are processed exactly 48h after the waivers are published, so depending on timing, it's theoretically possible the Jays put in a claim, but due to playing earlier in the day (O's were playing the A's), it's possible the claim period ended with the Jays having finished and the O's having not played/finished their game yet.. So our winning streak may have contributed to us NOT having priority

Ya that comment about hoping Vlad hits at a .750 OPS level in September is wild…

If that’s the most we’re expecting from our superstar, I don’t even know what to say.

Vlad since May 1:

390 PA, -0.5 WAR, 72 wRC+, .607 OPS, .086 ISO

I think a .750 OPS is probably a pipe dream. He's clearly broken at the plate and has been for a while.

Raleigh was hitting .159/.275/.304 on August 23rd and just won Player of the Week and added 62 points to his OPS. We could use a week like that around here.

750 OPS was the floor in the scenario I envisioned. 800-900 would be much better, of course. I think a 750 OPS would allow the lineup to at least function normally instead of being dysfunctional with Vladdy in the #2 or #3 slot hitting DP groundballs and shallow fly balls and popups most of the time.

feel it's relevant to point out that if our big boys could get back to bashing (mostly vladdy given Springer/Kirk/Okamoto's current trajectory tbh), we actually have an advantage over most teams at the bottom of the order....


Current wRC+ / Projected wRC+ --- TOR --- NYY --- TBR


LF Sanchez 109/108 --- CF Grisham 100/111 ----- RF Mesa 102/93
RF Lukes 101/107 ----- 2B Chisholm 97/107 ----- LF Simpson 96/91
2B Clement 93/97 ----- 3B McMahon 82/89 ------- 2B Palacios 88/88
CF Bateman 127/89 ---- SS Lombard 90/84 ------- CF Mullins 80/89
SS Gimenez 78/91 ----- C Wells 67/92 ---------- SS Walls 71/73

IF Urias 123/102 ----- UT Goldschmidt 113/109 - UT Vilade 118/98
UT Smith 76/101 ------ UT Jones 101/104 ------- OF Deluca 102/91
UT Schneider 70/104 -- OF Ramos 94/105 -------- UT Fraley 93/91
C Valenzuela 94/82 --- IF Caballero 89/88 ----- C Fortes 86/82
OF Straw 78/78 ------- C Sanchez 64/71 -------- IF Mateo 68/75

and that's including Judge as healthy and productive for NY.

I think Vlad needs to bat 8th or 9th for now. 2nd/3rd automatic out is too disruptive for the other, better hitters. And when Vlad is playing, right now, EVERY other player in the batting order is a better hitter.

It might be a small sample but those are very good numbers vs. LHP over the last two years and exactly what this roster could have used. He's been better than Crow-Armstrong, Springer, Trout, JRodriguez, and Kirk, to name a few.

It wasn't long ago that most fans were pining to jettison Alejandro Kirk. More recently we've seen people calling for unplayable Bieber to be traded for a bag of balls. Just as those players returned to form I think the expectation is for Vlad to return to form.

5 months of data does not re-define a player with almost a decade of experience hitting at another level. The question with Vlad is not why he's now no longer a superstar, it's simply "when will he return?"

That reminds me to take a glance at our R/L splits...

vRHP

LF Sanchez 123
DH Springer 117
RF Lukes 117
C Alejandro 116
CF Bateman 114
3B Okamoto 100
2B Clement 97
1B Guerrero 87
SS Gimenez 81

UT Smith 93
OF Straw 91
IF McAdoo 42
C Valenzuela 101

UT Pinango 112 --- Eloy 118 --- Keys 23
OF Cameron 192 --- Clase 180 --- Barger 0
IF Urias 182 ----- Schneider 85 --- Sosa 18
C



vLHP

CF Bateman 151
3B Okamoto 141
C Alejandro 113
1B Guerrero 112
LF McAdoo 102
DH Springer 101
2B Clement 83
SS Gimenez 71
RF Straw 67

UT Sanchez -1
OF Lukes 25
IF Smith -31
C Valenzuela 75

UT Schneider 58 --- Keys 44 --- Pinango 29
OF Clase 98 --- Cameron 22
IF Urias 82 --- Sosa 52
C



2yr Stats

vRHP

DH Springer 153
C Alejandro 116
CF Bateman 114
LF Sanchez 112
1B Guerrero 111
RF Lukes 110
2B Smith 109
3B Okamoto 100
SS Clement 85

UT Schneider 127
OF Straw 90
IF Gimenez 81
C Valenzuela 101

UT Pinango 112 --- McAdoo 42 --- Keys 23
OF Clase 96 --- Cameron 94
IF Urias 97 --- Sosa 86
C


vLHP

CF Bateman 151
3B Okamoto 141
1B Guerrero 140
DH Springer 117
2B Clement 116
C Alejandro 113
LF McAdoo 102
RF Straw 80
SS Gimenez 58

UT Sanchez 23
OF Lukes 58
IF Smith 32
C Valenzuela 75

UT Schneider 88 --- Keys 44 --- Pinango 29
OF Clase 56 --- Cameron 28
IF Sosa 91 --- Urias 53
C

CJ Van Eyk was returned to Buffalo after yesterdays game.

Simeon Woods Richardson has cleared waivers and he too is headed to Buffalo.

A while back it was noted that Bichette had been trending up and that Okamoto had been struggling. There has been a recent reversal on that front (in a small sample). Per Sportsnet:

“A microtrend worth watching with Okamoto is whether he’s starting to command the strike zone a little bit better. Over his last seven games, he has both the highest walk rate (22.2 per cent) and lowest strikeout rate (11.1 per cent) he’s produced in a seven-game stretch as a big-leaguer. Unsurprisingly, that’s helped him produce a solid slash line (.250/.407/.650).”

Bichette in his last seven games entering tonight has hit .176/.263/.235. (He is 1/4 tonight with a double.)

Okamoto is up to 2.4 fWAR (1.8 bWAR) on the season while Bo is at 1.6 fWAR (0.6 bWAR). Still looks like a clear win for the Blue Jays in pivoting to Okamoto. Maybe he can be a key player down the stretch for the team.

The latest adjustment by Okamoto might be to not swing at the pitches he can't handle.

He was supposed to be a good hitter with power, not a slugger, but he has been having problems with outside sweepers, a pitch not used much in Japan.

Since trade deadline

IN: fWAR/bWAR
Bateman 1.0/1.0
Smith 0.3/0.4
Arrighetti -0.1/-0.3

OUT: fWAR/bWAR
Gausman 0.4/0.0
Hoffman 0.1/0.1
Varsho -0.2/0.0
Macko 0.0/-0.1

BAL got a key win last night, edging the A's 2-1. I think the WC3 race is going to be very tight and I think the winning percentage for one or more teams is going to go up significantly. Hopefully the Blue Jays are the team that prevails. There are going to be some thrilling wins and heartbreaking losses this month.

And if you didn't see it, go watch how the Orioles won the game. Cowser robbed a game winning HR for the final out in the 9th.

BAL still has BOS, CLE, MIL, and NYY on their schedule besides the 6 vs. the Jays, so falling behind them a game with the tiebreaker in hand isn't worrisome. Just play good baseball.

Hoffman

TOR: 122gms, 0.95ip/gm, 1.57gmli, 102era-, 93fip-, 78xfip-, 0.1awar/65
MIN: 10gms, 0.87ip/gm, 1.12gmli, 100era-, 81fip-, 122xfip-, 0.7awar/65

At least the twins realize that he shouldn't be used as an elite high-leverage reliever, so they've avoided some war penalties for high leverage crashes, but overall he's still just an ok middle reliever there, too.

It still bugs me that we just decided that he was an elite high-leverage reliever and had to be used as such here even though he had literally never been used in that role before.

Yeah along with my distrust of the usefulness of 'playoffs odds', i agree that the idea that the only thing that matters it that the jays "hit their wins target", and that the "too many teams to pass" thing is largely meaningless.

Just get to a good wins number. the number of teams to pass never really matters.

the 3rd WC has been about .500 all year. Probably ends up slightly higher than that given that the eventual winner will be the hottest team down the stretch.

Get to 85 wins and they are probably in.

I'm skeptical though that 83-84 gets that final WC3 spot.

The most likely outcome is that the winner ends up at 82 wins.
At 81, there's probably a tie. 
Teams that got hot like Cleveland and Baltimore just happened to have  been playing the A's or the Rockies.

Since the Deadline...


SP Cease 5gms, 6.2ip/gm, 49era-, 70fip-, 73xfip-, 7.0awar/32
SP Bieber 4gms, 6.1ip/gm, 63era-, 87fip-, 95xfip-, 4.8awar/32
SP Soriano 5gms, 5.7ip/gm, 100era-, 89fip-, 96xfip-, 2.2awar/32
SP Scherzer 5gms, 5.3ip/gm, 99era-, 97fip-, 118xfip-, 2.2awar/32
SP Yesavage 1gms, 2.0ip/gm, 0era-, 110fip-, 183xfip-, 1.6awar/32

SP Taillon 2gms, 4.0ip/gm, 82era-, 116fip-, 118xfip-, 2.4awar/32
SP Arrighetti 2gms, 3.7ip/gm, 178era-, 145fip-, 125xfip-, -3.2awar/32



RP1 Varland 11gms, 1.1ip/gm, 1.99gmli, 36era-, 68fip-, 76xfip-, 2.4awar/65
RP2 Rogers 13gms, 1.0ip/gm, 1.46gmli, 69era-, 113fip-, 121xfip-, 0.5awar/65
RP3 Fisher 15gms, 1.0ip/gm, 1.39gmli, 15era-, 104fip-, 120xfip-, 1.3awar/65
RP4 Fluharty 15gms, 0.8ip/gm, 1.38gmli, 0era-, 72fip-, 127xfip-, 2.0awar/65
RP5 Miles 11gms, 1.0ip/gm, 1.00gmli, 38era-, 53fip-, 95xfip-, 2.1awar/65
RP6 Little 12gms, 0.8ip/gm, 1.18gmli, 65era-, 105fip-, 89xfip-, 0.3awar/65
RP7 Sewald 6gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0.56gmli, 0era-, 78fip-, 143xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP8 Tiedemann 1gms, 1.7ip/gm, 0.93gmli, 131era-, 17fip-, 60xfip-, 3.3awar/65

RP Estrada 4gms, 0.9ip/gm, 2.25gmli, 178era-, 152fip-, 203xfip-, -3.3awar/65
RP Dallas 2gms, 2.8ip/gm, 2.11gmli, 230era-, 120fip-, 98xfip-, -8.1awar/65
RP Lee 4gms, 1.2ip/gm, 2.00gmli, 187era-, 191fip-, 173xfip-, -4.9awar/65
RP Waldron 4gms, 1.1ip/gm, 0.45gmli, 251era-, 75fip-, 150xfip-, -1.6awar/65
RP SWR 5gms, 1.7ip/gm, 0.42gmli, 209era-, 140fip-, 109xfip-, -2.6awar/65
RP Van Eyk 1gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0.03gmli, 0era-, 145fip-, 255xfip-, 0.0awar/65
RP Lorenzen 1gms, 2.0ip/gm, 0.01gmli, 109era-, 62fip-, 99xfip-, 0.0awar/65

Guessing around 83-85 wins to secure WC3. There is always a chance a team gets very hot/lucky and wins 86+ games.

WC3 is the chest code this year.


Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The playoff picture in the AL is a classic example of why MLB should re-seed in the playoffs round to round. As it stands now:
Tampa Bay would play the winner of the Red Sox-Yankees wildcard series. Those are the three best teams in the AL.
On the other side of the bracket, the White Sox would play the winner of the Guardians-Astros series, with one of those teams advancing to the ALCS.

I remember when Morganna was the chest code!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWsNO230nCw

I strongly disagree with Buster. Winning the division has to mean something. It it doesn’t, then balance the schedule.

Ah nevermind, his point must be that under no circumstances should AL1 play a higher ranked WC card team.

Jays just picked up AAA RH J.Rodriguez from the dodgers, in exchange for a sebastian rodriguez from the dominican summer league.

I think i like this add.

As for the required wins, the distribution matters. If the Jays win 84 by winning every remaining series, it’s unlikely they miss the playoffs. It would require some really good play by some really mediocre teams outside of their games against the Jays.

RHP J.Rodriguez

2026 AAA (24): 21gms, 1.4ip/gm, 28.3k%, 14.2b%, 65era-, 73fip-, 81xfip-
2025 AAA (23): 37gms, 1.1ip/gm, 33.7k%, 14.2b%, 91era-, 100fip-, 89xfip-


Had an injury this year and had a rehab stint in complex league. Kept his innings down. There might be some roster issues as to why the dodgers let him go.

Fangraphs only gives him a 35+ prospect ranking, but that comes with a 70 grade slider and a 60 grade changeup. The fastball only gets a 40/45 grade even though he sits in the high 90s (96.5 avg FA velo this year). His command seems to be his biggest issue.

Why would Buster care about the Rays? 
He just doesn't want the Yankees to face the Rays after--possibly--using their best pitching against Boston.

Mitch Bannon
·
Sep 1, 2026
@MitchBannon
·
Follow
Teams can acquire non-40 man players after the deadline (like this).

Rodriguez, I believe, would’ve had to have been acquired and put on the 40-man yesterday to be playoff eligible, though.


Mitch Bannon
@MitchBannon
·
Follow
There may be some postseason eligibility wiggle room (love how clear the rules are). Teams can apply for waivers and there’s a chance this deal was actually processed on Aug 31…

Let’s cross that bridge if it’s worth crossing, though


Andrew Stoeten
@AndrewStoeten
·
Follow
Jose Rodríguez was Rule 5 eligible last winter, and one of the notable names for possible selection per MLB Pipeline, though teams seemed to have been scared off by his high walk rate. Walks haven't been much better this year, but HRs/overall results have.

Damon
@Damon98_
·
31m
Josè Rodriguez is a 6'6" mountain of a righty with an unorthadox delivery. His high 80s chanegup with 10" of armside run has generated a ludicrous 68% whiff rate in AAA in 2026. 4-seam sits 96.5 with bad shape. Sinker at 96 with 15" of run and a slider with a 37% whiff rate.

Rodriguez pitched in the PCL.
7 HRs last year in 42 innings.
1 HR in 29.1 innings this year.

6'6" 200lbs from Mexico.
I wonder if Kirk/Valenzuela know him. 
FV 40 from Fangraphs in Dec 25.
Sits 92-96 tops 98mph.

Apparently he has a very funky retro delivery which doesn't lead to commanding the strike zone.
They say the fastball doesn't play in the strike zone, but I wonder if that's just an overreaction from watching someone pitch in the PCL.
The fastball should play if the velo changes from pitch to pitch and the lack of command doesn't make for a comfortable AB when the ball is coming at 100.

It still bugs me that we just decided that he was an elite high-leverage reliever and had to be used as such here even though he had literally never been used in that role before.

The year before we signed him, he was one of the better set-up men in the league, and pitched high-leverage innings for the Phillies. Sure, he hadn't been a closer, but he had absolutely been a high-leverage guy.

Hoffman's leverage index went from 1.57 in 2024 to 1.72 in 2025.  That small change was met with a significant increase in his walk rate.  He also lost a bit off his fastball.   Personally, I think that his heavy usage at the beginning of 2025 (which was quite necessary in the circumstances of the club at the time) contributed to the overall decline in performance.  Just one of those things.  

yeah he was used as high lev....but my use of the word "elite" was intentional - he wasn't used as the Closer there, let alone the super-elite usage no-questions-asked must-close Closer, and that makes a huge difference.

and you might argue that it doesn't actually make a difference, but i'd argue that our FO and manager certainly seem to think it does, or else they wouldn't have named and used him in such a specific big-C Closer role for the entire time. If they didn't think the role was unique beyond lev index, they wouldn't have created that kind of role for him, and would have been much more flexible in the late innings overall.

It’s arguable that the team was too slow to remove Hoffman from the closer’s role this year (last year there weren’t really any other good options at closer). The late installation of Varland as the closer this year may have cost the team a couple of wins early on.

It still bugs me that we just decided that he was an elite high-leverage reliever and had to be used as such here even though he had literally never been used in that role before.

Like Varland.

varland had to earn it!