Toronto at Colorado, August 4-6

Time for lots and lots of Data Tables. If I don't use these skills, I might lose them.

As everyone knows, Coors Field does more to boost offense than any other park in the majors, as a quick look at the runs scored and allowed in the games the Rockies have played there compares with what they and their opponents have done in the other parks.

                                                      Home Park Road Game  Offensive
Team                 Park                      Since   Scoring   Scoring    Impact
                        
Colorado           Coors Field                  1995    28217    20417        1.38
Miami              Loan Depot Park              2012     2837     2516        1.13
Arizona            Chase Field                  1998    20456    18839        1.09
Boston             Fenway Park                  1912    85207    78476        1.09
Cincinnati         Great American Ball Park     2003    16303    15415        1.06
Chicago Cubs       Wrigley Field                1916    76820    72912        1.05
Toronto            Rogers Centre                1989    26080    25431        1.03
NY Yankees         Yankee Stadium II            2009    10671    10414        1.02
Philadelphia       Citizens Bank Park           2004    15179    14836        1.02
Atlanta            Truist Park                  2017     5550     5471        1.01
Milwaukee          American Family Field        2001    17051    16833        1.01
Minnesota          Target Field                 2010    10792    10667        1.01
Chicago White Sox  Rate Field                   1991    25079    24918        1.01
Texas              Globe Life Field             2020     3231     3213        1.01
Baltimore          Oriole Park at Camden Yards  1992    24600    24644        1.00
Kansas City        Kauffman Stadium             1973    38200    38321        1.00
Detroit            Comerica Park                2000    18215    18321         .99
Cleveland          Progressive Field            1994    22715    22952         .99
Houston            Daikin Park                  2000    17634    17892         .99
Pittsburgh         PNC Park                     2001    16574    16930         .98
LA Angels          Angel Stadium                1966    40196    41820         .96
Washington         Nationals Park               2008    10923    11606         .94
Tampa Bay          Tropicana Field              1998    18640    19809         .94
St, Louis          Busch Stadium II             2006    12567    13449         .93
San Francisco      Oracle Park                  2000    16326    17728         .92
Oakland            Oakland Coliseum             1968    38132    41852         .91
LA Dodgers         Dodger Stadium               1962    38204    43032         .89
NY Mets            Citi Field                   2009    10020    11365         .88
Seattle            T-Mobile Park                1999    16287    18550         .88
San Diego          Petco Park                   2004    12983    15075         .86

Coors Field is, in fact, the most hitter friendly park in major league history. Nothing else is close - the Braves' former home, Fulton County Stadium (which was actually known as "The Launching Pad") is a distant second among all the ball parks that hosted at least 1,000 games. (Fulton County's Offensive Impact was a comparatively negligible 1.12)

Can a team win in an extreme park? Teams have certainly won championships in extreme pitcher's parks. Dodger Stadium, the Jays next stop after Colorado, has always been one. The version of Yankee Stadium where Ruth and Gehrig was also one of the greatest pitcher's parks in baseball history and those Yankees teams won some titles. But even the gretest pitcher's parks, which must also include Houston's old Astrodome as well as San Diego's Petco Park (the toughest place to score runs ever) have suppressed offense to anything near the same degree that Coors Field boosts it. 

It is true that the best hitter's parks have not fared quite as well as the best pitcher's parks. Fenway Park and Wrigley Field are two of the most famous hitter's parks in the game's history, and their teams have both won championships during the last decade. We should note, however, that both ancient parks, while still being hitter-friendly, did much more to boost offense fifty years ago (before they built the new Fenway press box in the 1980s and before Wrigley finally got lights) than they do today.

Historically, the home team normally wins about 54% of the time. Observe!

Decade          AL      NL

1893-1900      ---     .607

1901-1910     .569     .534  
1911-1920     .538     .536
1921-1930     .545     .548
1931-1940     .549     .549
1941-1950     .552     .541

1951-1960     .535     .544
1961-1970     .540     .540
1971-1980     .535     .541
1981-1990     .545     .536
1991-2000     .529     .542

2001-2010     .550     .539
2011-2020     .534     .534
2021-2024     .522     .536

ALL TIME      .541     .543

So that's your normal Home-Road split. But Coors Field is an extreme park. Do the Rockies have a Home Field Advantage? 

Well, here is how everyone has done at home since moving into their current park. (I believe we need a sample size of at least 1,000 games before we can begin to draw conclusions on this type of issue, so feel free to disregard whatever numbers are coughed up for the Braves, the Marlins, and the Rangers.

Team                  Park                       Since      G      W      L       PCT
                            
NY Yankees           Yankee Stadium II            2009    1246    766    480     .615
LA Dodgers           Dodger Stadium               1962    4989   2919   2070     .585
St, Louis            Busch Stadium II             2006    1484    857    627     .577
Atlanta              Truist Park                  2017     596    344    252     .577
Boston               Fenway Park                  1912    8795   4985   3810     .567
Cleveland            Progressive Field            1994    2417   1362   1055     .564
San Francisco        Oracle Park                  2000    1979   1107    872     .559
Philadelphia         Citizens Bank Park           2004    1655    918    737     .555
Oakland              Oakland Coliseum             1968    4504   2496   2008     .554
Houston              Daikin Park                  2000    1971   1087    884     .551
Colorado             Coors Field                  1995    2371   1283   1088     .541
Toronto              Rogers Centre                1989    2746   1485   1261     .541
Milwaukee            American Family Field        2001    1895   1016    879     .536
Chicago Cubs         Wrigley Field                1916    8530   4552   3978     .534
Tampa Bay            Tropicana Field              1998    2136   1139    997     .533
Seattle              T-Mobile Park                1999    1972   1046    926     .530
Chicago White Sox    Rate Field                   1991    2666   1409   1257     .529
LA Angels            Angel Stadium                1966    4678   2462   2216     .526
NY Mets              Citi Field                   2009    1244    648    596     .521
Arizona              Chase Field                  1998    2136   1112   1024     .521
San Diego            Petco Park                   2004    1652    857    795     .519
Kansas City          Kauffman Stadium             1973    4090   2108   1982     .515
Washington           Nationals Park               2008    1327    682    645     .514
Minnesota            Target Field                 2010    1165    594    571     .510
Texas                Globe Life Field             2020     354    180    174     .508
Cincinnati           Great American Ball Park     2003    1729    874    855     .505
Detroit              Comerica Park                2000    1970    990    980     .503
Baltimore            Oriole Park at Camden Yards  1992    2584   1293   1291     .500
Pittsburgh           PNC Park                     2001    1891    945    946     .500
Miami                Loan Depot Park              2012     324    152    172     .469

And here is how they have done in their road games during the same period:

Team                   Park                      Since       G     W      L       PCT
                            
Atlanta              Truist Park                  2017     597    332    265     .556
NY Yankees           Yankee Stadium II            2009    1244    658    586     .529
LA Dodgers           Dodger Stadium               1962    4989   2559   2430     .513
Cleveland            Progressive Field            1994    2431   1221   1210     .502
St, Louis            Busch Stadium II             2006    1489    747    742     .502
San Francisco        Oracle Park                  2000    1966    945   1021     .481
Houston              Daikin Park                  2000    1976    942   1033     .477
Philadelphia         Citizens Bank Park           2004    1645    784    861     .477
Oakland              Oakland Coliseum             1968    4496   2118   2379     .471
Seattle              T-Mobile Park                1999    1976    929   1047     .470
Toronto              Rogers Centre                1989    2756   1293   1463     .469
NY Mets              Citi Field                   2009    1246    583    663     .468
Boston               Fenway Park                  1912    8843   4119   4672     .466
LA Angels            Angel Stadium                1966    4703   2177   2473     .463
Milwaukee            American Family Field        2001    1891    871   1020     .461
Chicago White Sox    Rate Field                   1991    2671   1224   1447     .458
Arizona              Chase Field                  1998    2136    975   1161     .456
Washington           Nationals Park               2008    1323    603    720     .456
Minnesota            Target Field                 2010    1163    527    636     .453
San Diego            Petco Park                   2004    1649    746    903     .452
Chicago Cubs         Wrigley Field                1916    8461   3815   4646     .451
Tampa Bay            Tropicana Field              1998    2134    952   1182     .446
Baltimore            Oriole Park at Camden Yards  1992    2641   1163   1427     .440
Cincinnati           Great American Ball Park     2003    1736    761    975     .438
Detroit              Comerica Park                2000    1974    851   1122     .431
Kansas City          Kauffman Stadium             1973    4153   1722   2431     .415
Miami                Loan Depot Park              2012     324    130    194     .401
Pittsburgh           PNC Park                     2001    1890    753   1137     .398
Texas                Globe Life Field             2020     354    138    216     .390
Colorado             Coors Field                  1995    2370    918   1452     .387

And here, finally, is everyone ranked by the difference in their performance at home and on the road.

				                         Team   Home    Road	Park
Team	               Park	                 Since	Games	PCT	PCT	Advantage
						
Colorado	     Coors Field	          1995    4741	 .541	 .387	 .154
Texas	             Globe Life Field	          2020	   708	 .508	 .390	 .119
Pittsburgh	     PNC Park	                  2001	  3781	 .500	 .398	 .101
Boston	             Fenway Park   	          1912	 17638	 .567	 .466	 .101
Kansas City	     Kauffman Stadium	          1973	  8243	 .515	 .415	 .101
Tampa Bay	     Tropicana Field	          1998	  4270	 .533	 .446	 .087
NY Yankees	     Yankee Stadium II	          2009	  2490	 .615	 .529	 .086
Oakland	             Oakland Coliseum	          1968	  9000	 .554	 .471	 .083
Chicago Cubs	     Wrigley Field	          1916	 16991	 .534	 .451	 .083
San Francisco	     Oracle Park	          2000	  3945	 .559	 .481	 .079
Philadelphia	     Citizens Bank Park	          2004	  3300	 .555	 .477	 .078
St, Louis	     Busch Stadium II	          2006	  2973	 .577	 .502	 .076
Milwaukee	     American Family Field	  2001	  3786	 .536	 .461	 .076
Houston	             Daikin Park	          2000	  3947	 .551	 .477	 .075
LA Dodgers	     Dodger Stadium	          1962	  9978	 .585	 .513	 .072
Toronto	             Rogers Centre	          1989	  5502	 .541	 .469	 .072
Detroit	             Comerica Park	          2000	  3944	 .503	 .431	 .071
Chicago White Sox    Rate Field     	          1991	  5337	 .529	 .458	 .070
Miami	             Loan Depot Park	          2012     648	 .469	 .401	 .068
Cincinnati	     Great American Ball Park	  2003	  3465	 .505	 .438	 .067
San Diego	     Petco Park	                  2004	  3301	 .519	 .452	 .066
Arizona	             Chase Field	          1998	  4272	 .521	 .456	 .064
LA Angels	     Angel Stadium	          1966	  9381	 .526	 .463	 .063
Cleveland	     Progressive Field	          1994	  4848	 .564	 .502	 .061
Seattle	             T-Mobile Park	          1999	  3948	 .530	 .470	 .060
Baltimore	     Oriole Park at Camden Yards  1992	  5225	 .500	 .440	 .060
Washington	     Nationals Park	          2008	  2650	 .514	 .456	 .058
Minnesota	     Target Field	          2010	  2328	 .510	 .453	 .057
NY Mets	             Citi Field	                  2009	  2490	 .521	 .468	 .053
Atlanta	             Truist Park	          2017	  1193	 .577	 .556	 .021

No team in major league history has a bigger gap between their performance at home and their performance on the road than the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have either a Home Game Advantage or a Road Game Disadvantage, and while no one can really be sure which it is, it does look to me like their real issues occur when they come down to sea level. 

But the Blue Jays have to play them in Coors Field, and guess what - it's been a problem. The Jays have made five trips there over the years, and they've gone 4-11. They've been swept on three of those five occasions. They've had their way with the Rockies when they get them at sea level - the Jays have gone 9-1 against the Rockies in Canada. But that's not where they're playing this week.

Matchups

Mon 4 Aug - Lauer (6-2, 2.68) vs Gordon (2-3, 4.85)
Tue 5 Aug - Berrios (7-4, 3.84) vs Freeland (2-11, 5.26)
Wed 6 Aug - Gausman (7-8, 3.99) vs S.Guy (?-?, ?.??)