Texas at Toronto, August 15-17
Friday, August 15 2025 @ 11:40 AM EDT
Contributed by: Magpie
I think it's easy enough to understand the Texas Rangers basic plan for 2025. We're about to see it for ourselves, up close and personal.
That plan is simply to turn Jakob de Grom and Nathan Eovaldi loose on the opposition. In a short series, you could happily take your chances with that.
The thing is, you kind of need to make it to the post-season for the plan to work as designed. And while the Yankees have thoughtfully come sliding back to the pack, and the Rangers are somehow just 3.5 games out of the last Wild Card, there's still a bit of a hill to be climbed, a couple of teams that need to be passed.
The Rangers' problem this year is not a new one. There's an enormous difference in how well they play at home in the Texas heat, and how well they play on the road. They only moved into Globe Life Field in 2020, and it's too soon to really come to any conclusions about the park's effect on the game (I'd want them to get to about 1,000 games there, and they've just passed 400.) While their previous home, the Ballpark in Arlington, was a notorious hitter's heaven, Globe Life has, so far, had a fairly neutral effect on offense (in fact, all of the really extreme parks these days are in the Other League, with the exception of the pitcher's paradise in Seattle.)
But still, something weird is going on. Coming into this season, the Rangers had played .508 ball (180-174) at Globe Life, and just .390 (138-216) on the road. As Home-Road splits go, that's freaking enormous. A difference in winning percentage of .119 (there was some Excel rounding in the previous figures!) is huge - only the Colorado Rockies, proud owners of the largest Home-Road split in the history of the universe, can top that.
And the Rangers are doing it again this year. Let's rank the AL teams by the difference in their performance at Home and on the Road. Teams normally win more often at home than on the road (unless they've been forced into playing in a minor league park by an Owner with a Plan), and the normal historical difference is about .80 - the home team plays .540 ball, the road team plays .460 ball. HOME ROAD
Team W L PCT W L PCT DIFF
A's 24 36 .400 30 33 .476 -.076
Cleveland 31 28 .525 32 29 .525 .001
Kansas City 30 29 .508 30 32 .484 .025
Tampa Bay 32 30 .516 27 33 .450 .066
Houston 37 25 .597 31 28 .525 .071
Los Angeles 33 30 .524 26 32 .448 .076
Detroit 39 24 .619 32 28 .533 .086
Baltimore 30 30 .500 25 36 .410 .090
Seattle 37 25 .597 30 30 .500 .097
Chicago 26 36 .419 18 41 .305 .114
New York 37 25 .597 27 32 .458 .139
Minnesota 32 26 .552 25 38 .397 .155
Toronto 40 20 .667 31 31 .500 .167
Texas 37 26 .587 24 35 .407 .181
Boston 39 22 .639 27 34 .443 .197
Only the Red Sox - who actually play in the league's weirdest ballpark - have a bigger Home-Road split than the Rangers. And while the Blue Jays are indeed next on the list for biggest Home-road splits, I think the Jays' situation is completely different. After all, only three teams in the AL have a better road record than the Blue Jays.
Park effects over a single season can be extremely random - 80 games or less is a very, very Small Sample. It's about as meaningful as a week's worth of Plate Appearances. But in 2025, Globe Life has played like one of the best pitcher's parks in the game. Only T-Mobile in Seattle (naturally) has seen a bigger decline in Runs Scored and Allowed in a team's home games. Well, that's how it is at T-Mobile, the Mariners have been there for a quarter century, they've played 2,000 games there. But Globe Life, in its brief history, had so far played as a neutral park, with a tiny edge to the offense. The Rangers had actually scored and allowed (barely) more runs at home than on the road. But not this year. And especially not when it comes to run prevention.
Here is everybody ranked by how much offense they lose when they're at home.
RUNS SCORED PER GAME
Team HOME ROAD DIFF
Seattle 4.113 4.983 -.870
Kansas City 3.407 4.113 -.706
Texas 3.857 4.271 -.414
Houston 4.145 4.542 -.397
A's 4.383 4.460 -.077
Cleveland 4.000 4.049 -.049
Tampa Bay 4.548 4.400 .148
New York 5.145 4.966 .179
Los Angeles 4.508 4.328 .180
Chicago 3.935 3.695 .241
Minnesota 4.345 4.000 .345
Detroit 4.968 4.583 .385
Boston 5.262 4.803 .459
Toronto 5.133 4.565 .569
Baltimore 4.983 3.525 1.459
The Rangers are scoring more runs when they hit the road. Their offense hasn't pickled up as much as those of the Mariners or Royals, but those teams do play in the best pitcher's parks left in the league.
Unfortunately for the Rangers, something similar, but on steroids, has befallen their pitchers. Here is everybody ranked by how many more runs they're giving up in the road games.
RUNS ALLOWED PER GAME
Team HOME ROAD DIFF
Texas 3.016 4.203 1.188
Seattle 3.887 4.633 .746
New York 3.952 4.695 .743
Boston 4.016 4.525 .508
Toronto 4.233 4.694 .460
Tampa Bay 4.032 4.217 .184
Chicago 4.355 4.508 .154
Los Angeles 4.905 5.017 .112
Kansas City 3.864 3.903 .039
Detroit 4.159 4.150 -.009
Baltimore 5.017 4.902 -.115
Cleveland 4.356 4.066 -.290
Houston 4.129 3.797 -.332
Minnesota 4.638 4.270 -.368
A's 5.717 4.794 -.923
Well. Any sensible and rational observer, with a gift for spotting the Bleeding Obvious, would confidently assert that the Texas Rangers are a bad road team because their pitchers go into the tank when they leave the comforts of home behind.
I don't want to say that. I know no better way to guarantee that de Grom, Eovaldi, and their friends will completely shut down the Jays' offense. I know the awesome power I wield, I strive to use it for good.
But I don't know what to tell you!
I can point out that the Rangers road issues don't have a whole lot to do with the three starters we'll see this weekend - they've combined to post a 2.64 ERA at home, and 3.07 on the road. Granted, much of that has happened because Nathan Eovaldi has been ridiculous, awesome, absolutely unhittable when he gets out of Texas (7-3, 1.26) but de Grom and Corbin have both been good enough on the road.
Matchups
Fri 15 Aug - de Grom (10-5, 2.86) vs Bassitt (11-6, 4.17)
Sat 16 Aug - Corbin (6-8, 4.00) vs Lauer (7-2, 2.82)
Sun 17 Aug - Eovaldi (10-3, 1.71) vs Berrios (9-4, 2.74)
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