Toronto at Cincinnati, September 1-3

Monday, September 01 2025 @ 12:05 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

September baseball, kids! The highs are higher, the lows are lower. This is the good stuff.

I think that, for the most part, most players perform in September much the way they do the rest of the time. Some will get hot, some will choose this inopportune moment for a slump - but eventually, everyone should return to their proper level. If I told you that the best AL hitter in the month of September is Aaron Judge - because yes, he is - you wouldn't be very surprised. 

But there could be exceptions. There is, in fact, one prominent example that always comes to my mind at this time of year. On the one hand, we have Joe Morgan. Little Joe was one of the greatest players of my lifetime, an inner-circle Hall of Famer, one of the three best second baseman ever to walk the earth. On the other hand, we have Steve Garvey - certainly a good player, but not in Cooperstown, and while he's probably better than some of the Hall's first baseman, I wouldn't want to argue that he belongs there. Joe Morgan was a far greater player.

For the first five months of the season anyway, when Morgan hit .276/.399/.438 (OPS .837) compared to Garvey's .288/.323/.441 (OPS .764). Never mind Morgan's advantages in the field an on the basepaths.

But every year September came around, and every year Little Joe just seemed to wear down a bit while Garvey was choosing this moment to get hot. In his 490 career games in September, Morgan hit .250/.360/.379 (OPS .740), which is still decent production from your second baseman. But Garvey, in his 409 career games in September, was hitting .324/.363/.471 (OPS .834). One man got significantly better, and one got significantly worse. And don't even ask about October, which demonstrates the same effect taken to some wild extreme. In 55 post-season games, Garvey hit .338/.361/.550; in his 50 post-season games, Morgan hit .182/.323/.348.

So I thought I'd go over the AL contenders and see if anything similar could be found. I'm including just the six teams currently in a position to make the post-season, along with three teams still nursing an outside chance: Kansas City, Cleveland, and Texas. (Personally, I think Cleveland and Texas are kaput, el finito, it's all over, pack up the tent. I know, the Rangers are hot right now. But no Eovaldi, no Seager? That's a problem. However, I definitely think the Royals could give someone - like Seattle - a real scare before it's over.)

From those nine teams, I am looking only at those players who have actually played 100 games in September. I want a decent sample to look at. It means that Cal Raleigh doesn't make the cut, but that's show business. We're left with 37 players from the nine contenders, and here's what they've done:

       Player    Team    GPL   HR  RBI  BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
                                    
1    Judge    NYY    193   61  135  .275  .409  .610  1.019
2    Alvarez    HOU    125   32  83  .296  .395  .601    .996
3    Ramirez    CLE    286   47  161  .297  .372  .527    .899
4    Bichette    TOR    116   20   77  .323  .363  .526    .890
5    Seager    TEX    213   44  132  .285  .346  .518    .864
6    Story    BOS    177   36  103  .267  .331  .515    .846
7    Goldschmidt NYY    345   50  181  .271  .363  .476    .839
8    Springer    TOR    252   50  132  .279  .356  .482    .838
9    Bregman    BOS    214   39  133  .260  .356  .481    .838
10    Yastrzemski KCR    151   25  73  .256  .342  .488    .831

11    Stanton    NYY    285  72  183  .237  .328  .501    .830
12    Altuve    HOU    342  45  136  .298  .354  .475    .829
13    Pederson    TEX    240  37  85  .245  .345  .481    .826
14    Suarez    SEA    276  54  137  .266  .341  .483    .824
15    Correa    HOU    209  32  118  .285  .351  .465    .816
16    Semien    TEX    315  65  185  .259  .329  .486    .815
17    Torres    DET    165  24  96  .283  .351  .461    .812
18    Guerrero    TOR    159  27  87  .267  .337  .456    .793
19    Perez    KCR    308  53  201  .283  .318  .471    .790
20    Grichuk    KCR    263  48  125  .252  .290  .500    .790

21    Bellinger  YYY    202  29  112  .253  .334  .442    .776
22    Gimenez    TOR    125   14  51  .284  .342  .433    .775
23    Arozarena   SEA    139   16  61  .247  .336  .438    .774
24    Dubon    HOU    125   11  42  .288  .330  .440    .769
25    Lowe    BOS    158   22  70  .252  .350  .414    .763
26    Tellez    TEX    131   21  57  .235  .299  .457    .756
27    Walker    HOU    191   30  91  .233  .305  .441    .746
28    Polanco    SEA    198   29  101  .255  .314  .427    .740
29    Baez    DET    243   27  93  .261  .316  .417    .734
30    Naylor    SEA    123   10  52  .260  .331  .399    .730

31    Garcia    TEX    116   19  66  .223  .283  .444    .727
32    Varsho    TOR    113   19  51  .225  .285  .439    .724
33    Crawford    SEA    182   14  82  .241  .345  .370    .715
34    McMahon    NYY    176   23  56  .214  .289  .388    .677
35    Chisholm    NYY    100   13  41  .224  .283  .392    .675
36    Grisham    NYY    130   10  53  .213  .309  .355    .664
37    Santander  TOR    135   26  74  .206  .265  .398    .663
We already knew Aaron Judge was the best hitter in the American League, of course. What we really wanted to know was whose performance changes most when September rolls around. That list looks a little different. Judge moves down to the middle of the pack with people like Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. These players seem to have no idea what month it is. Perhaps they can't even read a calendar. 

                             APRIL-AUGUST                    SEPTEMBER                  OPS
                    BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS       BAVG  OBP  SLG    OPS        Change
                                                            
1    Dubon        HOU   .252  .288   364    .652      .288  .330  .440    .769        .117
2    Bichette     TOR   .287  .330   456    .786      .323  .363  .526    .890        .104
3    Gimenez      TOR   .249  .315   376    .690      .284  .342  .433    .775        .085
4    Semien       TEX   .252  .320   423    .742      .259  .329  .486    .815        .073
5    Yastrzemski  KCR   .235  .320   440    .760      .256  .342  .488    .831        .071
6    Ramirez      CLE   .276  .349   499    .847      .297  .372  .527    .899        .052
7    Torres       DET   .261  .334   431    .765      .283  .351  .461    .812        .047
8    Alvarez      HOU   .294  .387   567    .954      .296  .395  .601    .996        .042
9    Perez        KCR   .262  .299   455    .754      .283  .318  .471    .790        .036
10    Suarez       SEA  .244  .327   461    .788      .266  .341  .483    .824        .036
11    Story        BOS   .263  .328   487    .815      .267  .331  .515    .846        .031
12    Pederson     TEX   .236  .338   458    .796      .245  .345  .481    .826        .030
13    Grichuk      KCR   .251  .301   459    .760      .252  .290  .500    .790        .030
14    Tellez       TEX   .233  .300   433    .734      .235  .299  .457    .756        .022
15    Crawford     SEA   .249  .339   366    .705      .241  .345  .370    .715        .010

16    Baez        DET   .250  .288   438    .726      .261  .316  .417    .734        .008
17    Varsho      TOR   .225  .297   424    .721      .225  .285  .439    .724        .003
18    Altuve      HOU   .305  .363   465    .828      .298  .354  .475    .829        .001
19    Judge        NYY   .295  .409   612  1.021      .275  .409  .610  1.019       -.002
20    Correa      HOU   .274  .353   466    .819      .285  .351  .465    .816       -.003
21    Seager      TEX   .289  .365   508    .872      .285  .346  .518    .864       -.008
22    Arozarena    SEA   .251  .346   437    .783      .247  .336  .438    .774       -.009
23    Springer    TOR   .233  .375   472    .847      .279  .356  .482    .838       -.009
24    Lowe        BOS   .266  .346   427    .773      .252  .350  .414    .763       -.010

15    Garcia      TEX   .240  .296   445    .741      .223  .283  .444    .727       -.014
26    Bregman      BOS   .277  .369   486    .855      .260  .356  .481    .838       -.017
27    Polanco      SEA   .263  .332   439    .772      .255  .314  .427    .740       -.032
28    Walker      HOU   .251  .331   457    .788      .233  .305  .441    .746       -.042
29    Naylor      SEA   .268  .327   454    .781      .260  .331  .399    .730       -.051
30    Bellinger    NYY   .263  .334   494    .828      .253  .334  .442    .776       -.052
31    Goldschmidt  NYY   .292  .381   512    .893      .271  .363  .476    .839       -.054
32    Stanton      NYY   .263  .350   534    .884      .237  .328  .501    .830       -.054
33    Grisham      NYY   .220  .322   407    .729      .213  .309  .355    .664       -.065
34    McMahon      NYY   .244  .328   423    .752      .214  .289  .388    .677       -.075
35    Guerrero    TOR   .293  .372   507    .880      .267  .337  .456    .793       -.087
36    Chisholm    NYY   .252  .323   466    .789      .224  .283  .392    .675       -.114
37    Santander    TOR   .249  .313   472    .785      .206  .265  .398    .663       -.122


Hmm. Perhaps there's no pressing need for Anthony Santander to hurry back into action. But does it mean we should expect Bo Bichette to heat up and lead the offense, while Guerrero scuffles? Of course not! While Bichette has generally been a good September hitter (especially in 2022 - .406/.444/.662), the last time the Blue Jays played September games that mattered, in 2023,  he struggled to get his bat going (you will recall he was trying to come back from a knee injury.) And Guerrero has been up and down - he was simply brutal in 2019, very good in 2021, and then pretty bad in 2022. He's basically been his normal self the last two seasons. 

Hey, I wanted to find out!

****************************

Obviously, the Jays haven't faced the Cincinnati Reds very often. This is just their fifth ever visit  to Cincinnati, and yet - one of those treks to south-western Ohio gave us one of the more memorable games of the millennium. I remember it vividly and I wasn't even watching. 

It was a Friday night in June 2014. I was downtown in Dundas Square, where St Vincent was doing a free show to promote her eponymous fourth album. Liam Hendriks was the Blue Jays starter, and the Reds beat him senseless. It was 8-0 after two innings, which would have been roughly when I headed for the subway. The baseball might suck, but Annie's guitar playing would surely make up for that. 

Well, Annie was great, and she was also really weird. Which was also cool. Still, I found myself distracted by a large video screen across the way. It was showing the baseball game. And the Jays seemed to be creeping back into it. After six, the Jays were trailing 9-5; an inning later they had scored another three runs, and in the eighth inning they tied it up. They had been trailing by eight! It was all over! How did this happen? I had no idea.

Anyway, Cincinnati sent their closer out to work the ninth. It was that same fellow who's now closing games for the Red Sox. And after a couple of hits, a couple of walks, the Jays somehow had an 11-9 lead. Chapman got the hook, and Edwin Encarnacion - in the lineup for a game in Cincinnati for the first time since the Reds traded him away back in 2009 - greeted the new guy with a three run homer. Casey Janssen closed the 14-9 final. 

You don't forget a game like that! I'll bet some of you remember it your own selves. And St Vincent was fabulous. A memorable night.

Matchups

Mon 1 Sep - Bassitt (11-7, 4.14) vs Greene (5-4, 2.81)
Tue 2 Sep - Berrios (9-5, 3.95) vs Lodolo (8-7, 3.22)
Wed 3 Sep - Bieber (1-1, 2.38) vs Littell (9-8, 3.63)

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