September baseball, kids! The highs are higher, the lows are lower. This is the good stuff.
I think that, for the most part, most players perform in September much the way they do the rest of the time. Some will get hot, some will choose this inopportune moment for a slump - but eventually, everyone should return to their proper level. If I told you that the best AL hitter in the month of September is Aaron Judge - because yes, he is - you wouldn't be very surprised.
But there could be exceptions. There is, in fact, one prominent example that always comes to my mind at this time of year. On the one hand, we have Joe Morgan. Little Joe was one of the greatest players of my lifetime, an inner-circle Hall of Famer, one of the three best second baseman ever to walk the earth. On the other hand, we have Steve Garvey - certainly a good player, but not in Cooperstown, and while he's probably better than some of the Hall's first baseman, I wouldn't want to argue that he belongs there. Joe Morgan was a far greater player.
For the first five months of the season anyway, when Morgan hit .276/.399/.438 (OPS .837) compared to Garvey's .288/.323/.441 (OPS .764). Never mind Morgan's advantages in the field an on the basepaths.
But every year September came around, and every year Little Joe just seemed to wear down a bit while Garvey was choosing this moment to get hot. In his 490 career games in September, Morgan hit .250/.360/.379 (OPS .740), which is still decent production from your second baseman. But Garvey, in his 409 career games in September, was hitting .324/.363/.471 (OPS .834). One man got significantly better, and one got significantly worse. And don't even ask about October, which demonstrates the same effect taken to some wild extreme. In 55 post-season games, Garvey hit .338/.361/.550; in his 50 post-season games, Morgan hit .182/.323/.348.
So I thought I'd go over the AL contenders and see if anything similar could be found. I'm including just the six teams currently in a position to make the post-season, along with three teams still nursing an outside chance: Kansas City, Cleveland, and Texas. (Personally, I think Cleveland and Texas are kaput, el finito, it's all over, pack up the tent. I know, the Rangers are hot right now. But no Eovaldi, no Seager? That's a problem. However, I definitely think the Royals could give someone - like Seattle - a real scare before it's over.)
From those nine teams, I am looking only at those players who have actually played 100 games in September. I want a decent sample to look at. It means that Cal Raleigh doesn't make the cut, but that's show business. We're left with 37 players from the nine contenders, and here's what they've done:
Hmm. Perhaps there's no pressing need for Anthony Santander to hurry back into action. But does it mean we should expect Bo Bichette to heat up and lead the offense, while Guerrero scuffles? Of course not! While Bichette has generally been a good September hitter (especially in 2022 - .406/.444/.662), the last time the Blue Jays played September games that mattered, in 2023, he struggled to get his bat going (you will recall he was trying to come back from a knee injury.) And Guerrero has been up and down - he was simply brutal in 2019, very good in 2021, and then pretty bad in 2022. He's basically been his normal self the last two seasons.
I think that, for the most part, most players perform in September much the way they do the rest of the time. Some will get hot, some will choose this inopportune moment for a slump - but eventually, everyone should return to their proper level. If I told you that the best AL hitter in the month of September is Aaron Judge - because yes, he is - you wouldn't be very surprised.
But there could be exceptions. There is, in fact, one prominent example that always comes to my mind at this time of year. On the one hand, we have Joe Morgan. Little Joe was one of the greatest players of my lifetime, an inner-circle Hall of Famer, one of the three best second baseman ever to walk the earth. On the other hand, we have Steve Garvey - certainly a good player, but not in Cooperstown, and while he's probably better than some of the Hall's first baseman, I wouldn't want to argue that he belongs there. Joe Morgan was a far greater player.
For the first five months of the season anyway, when Morgan hit .276/.399/.438 (OPS .837) compared to Garvey's .288/.323/.441 (OPS .764). Never mind Morgan's advantages in the field an on the basepaths.
But every year September came around, and every year Little Joe just seemed to wear down a bit while Garvey was choosing this moment to get hot. In his 490 career games in September, Morgan hit .250/.360/.379 (OPS .740), which is still decent production from your second baseman. But Garvey, in his 409 career games in September, was hitting .324/.363/.471 (OPS .834). One man got significantly better, and one got significantly worse. And don't even ask about October, which demonstrates the same effect taken to some wild extreme. In 55 post-season games, Garvey hit .338/.361/.550; in his 50 post-season games, Morgan hit .182/.323/.348.
So I thought I'd go over the AL contenders and see if anything similar could be found. I'm including just the six teams currently in a position to make the post-season, along with three teams still nursing an outside chance: Kansas City, Cleveland, and Texas. (Personally, I think Cleveland and Texas are kaput, el finito, it's all over, pack up the tent. I know, the Rangers are hot right now. But no Eovaldi, no Seager? That's a problem. However, I definitely think the Royals could give someone - like Seattle - a real scare before it's over.)
From those nine teams, I am looking only at those players who have actually played 100 games in September. I want a decent sample to look at. It means that Cal Raleigh doesn't make the cut, but that's show business. We're left with 37 players from the nine contenders, and here's what they've done:
Player Team GPL HR RBI BAVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Judge NYY 193 61 135 .275 .409 .610 1.019
2 Alvarez HOU 125 32 83 .296 .395 .601 .996
3 Ramirez CLE 286 47 161 .297 .372 .527 .899
4 Bichette TOR 116 20 77 .323 .363 .526 .890
5 Seager TEX 213 44 132 .285 .346 .518 .864
6 Story BOS 177 36 103 .267 .331 .515 .846
7 Goldschmidt NYY 345 50 181 .271 .363 .476 .839
8 Springer TOR 252 50 132 .279 .356 .482 .838
9 Bregman BOS 214 39 133 .260 .356 .481 .838
10 Yastrzemski KCR 151 25 73 .256 .342 .488 .831
11 Stanton NYY 285 72 183 .237 .328 .501 .830
12 Altuve HOU 342 45 136 .298 .354 .475 .829
13 Pederson TEX 240 37 85 .245 .345 .481 .826
14 Suarez SEA 276 54 137 .266 .341 .483 .824
15 Correa HOU 209 32 118 .285 .351 .465 .816
16 Semien TEX 315 65 185 .259 .329 .486 .815
17 Torres DET 165 24 96 .283 .351 .461 .812
18 Guerrero TOR 159 27 87 .267 .337 .456 .793
19 Perez KCR 308 53 201 .283 .318 .471 .790
20 Grichuk KCR 263 48 125 .252 .290 .500 .790
21 Bellinger YYY 202 29 112 .253 .334 .442 .776
22 Gimenez TOR 125 14 51 .284 .342 .433 .775
23 Arozarena SEA 139 16 61 .247 .336 .438 .774
24 Dubon HOU 125 11 42 .288 .330 .440 .769
25 Lowe BOS 158 22 70 .252 .350 .414 .763
26 Tellez TEX 131 21 57 .235 .299 .457 .756
27 Walker HOU 191 30 91 .233 .305 .441 .746
28 Polanco SEA 198 29 101 .255 .314 .427 .740
29 Baez DET 243 27 93 .261 .316 .417 .734
30 Naylor SEA 123 10 52 .260 .331 .399 .730
31 Garcia TEX 116 19 66 .223 .283 .444 .727
32 Varsho TOR 113 19 51 .225 .285 .439 .724
33 Crawford SEA 182 14 82 .241 .345 .370 .715
34 McMahon NYY 176 23 56 .214 .289 .388 .677
35 Chisholm NYY 100 13 41 .224 .283 .392 .675
36 Grisham NYY 130 10 53 .213 .309 .355 .664
37 Santander TOR 135 26 74 .206 .265 .398 .663
We already knew Aaron Judge was the best hitter in the American League, of course. What we really wanted to know was whose performance changes most when September rolls around. That list looks a little different. Judge moves down to the middle of the pack with people like Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. These players seem to have no idea what month it is. Perhaps they can't even read a calendar.
APRIL-AUGUST SEPTEMBER OPS
BAVG OBP SLG OPS BAVG OBP SLG OPS Change
1 Dubon HOU .252 .288 364 .652 .288 .330 .440 .769 .117
2 Bichette TOR .287 .330 456 .786 .323 .363 .526 .890 .104
3 Gimenez TOR .249 .315 376 .690 .284 .342 .433 .775 .085
4 Semien TEX .252 .320 423 .742 .259 .329 .486 .815 .073
5 Yastrzemski KCR .235 .320 440 .760 .256 .342 .488 .831 .071
6 Ramirez CLE .276 .349 499 .847 .297 .372 .527 .899 .052
7 Torres DET .261 .334 431 .765 .283 .351 .461 .812 .047
8 Alvarez HOU .294 .387 567 .954 .296 .395 .601 .996 .042
9 Perez KCR .262 .299 455 .754 .283 .318 .471 .790 .036
10 Suarez SEA .244 .327 461 .788 .266 .341 .483 .824 .036
11 Story BOS .263 .328 487 .815 .267 .331 .515 .846 .031
12 Pederson TEX .236 .338 458 .796 .245 .345 .481 .826 .030
13 Grichuk KCR .251 .301 459 .760 .252 .290 .500 .790 .030
14 Tellez TEX .233 .300 433 .734 .235 .299 .457 .756 .022
15 Crawford SEA .249 .339 366 .705 .241 .345 .370 .715 .010
16 Baez DET .250 .288 438 .726 .261 .316 .417 .734 .008
17 Varsho TOR .225 .297 424 .721 .225 .285 .439 .724 .003
18 Altuve HOU .305 .363 465 .828 .298 .354 .475 .829 .001
19 Judge NYY .295 .409 612 1.021 .275 .409 .610 1.019 -.002
20 Correa HOU .274 .353 466 .819 .285 .351 .465 .816 -.003
21 Seager TEX .289 .365 508 .872 .285 .346 .518 .864 -.008
22 Arozarena SEA .251 .346 437 .783 .247 .336 .438 .774 -.009
23 Springer TOR .233 .375 472 .847 .279 .356 .482 .838 -.009
24 Lowe BOS .266 .346 427 .773 .252 .350 .414 .763 -.010
15 Garcia TEX .240 .296 445 .741 .223 .283 .444 .727 -.014
26 Bregman BOS .277 .369 486 .855 .260 .356 .481 .838 -.017
27 Polanco SEA .263 .332 439 .772 .255 .314 .427 .740 -.032
28 Walker HOU .251 .331 457 .788 .233 .305 .441 .746 -.042
29 Naylor SEA .268 .327 454 .781 .260 .331 .399 .730 -.051
30 Bellinger NYY .263 .334 494 .828 .253 .334 .442 .776 -.052
31 Goldschmidt NYY .292 .381 512 .893 .271 .363 .476 .839 -.054
32 Stanton NYY .263 .350 534 .884 .237 .328 .501 .830 -.054
33 Grisham NYY .220 .322 407 .729 .213 .309 .355 .664 -.065
34 McMahon NYY .244 .328 423 .752 .214 .289 .388 .677 -.075
35 Guerrero TOR .293 .372 507 .880 .267 .337 .456 .793 -.087
36 Chisholm NYY .252 .323 466 .789 .224 .283 .392 .675 -.114
37 Santander TOR .249 .313 472 .785 .206 .265 .398 .663 -.122
Hmm. Perhaps there's no pressing need for Anthony Santander to hurry back into action. But does it mean we should expect Bo Bichette to heat up and lead the offense, while Guerrero scuffles? Of course not! While Bichette has generally been a good September hitter (especially in 2022 - .406/.444/.662), the last time the Blue Jays played September games that mattered, in 2023, he struggled to get his bat going (you will recall he was trying to come back from a knee injury.) And Guerrero has been up and down - he was simply brutal in 2019, very good in 2021, and then pretty bad in 2022. He's basically been his normal self the last two seasons.
Hey, I wanted to find out!
****************************
Obviously, the Jays haven't faced the Cincinnati Reds very often. This is just their fifth ever visit to Cincinnati, and yet - one of those treks to south-western Ohio gave us one of the more memorable games of the millennium. I remember it vividly and I wasn't even watching.
It was a Friday night in June 2014. I was downtown in Dundas Square, where St Vincent was doing a free show to promote her eponymous fourth album. Liam Hendriks was the Blue Jays starter, and the Reds beat him senseless. It was 8-0 after two innings, which would have been roughly when I headed for the subway. The baseball might suck, but Annie's guitar playing would surely make up for that.
Well, Annie was great, and she was also really weird. Which was also cool. Still, I found myself distracted by a large video screen across the way. It was showing the baseball game. And the Jays seemed to be creeping back into it. After six, the Jays were trailing 9-5; an inning later they had scored another three runs, and in the eighth inning they tied it up. They had been trailing by eight! It was all over! How did this happen? I had no idea.
Anyway, Cincinnati sent their closer out to work the ninth. It was that same fellow who's now closing games for the Red Sox. And after a couple of hits, a couple of walks, the Jays somehow had an 11-9 lead. Chapman got the hook, and Edwin Encarnacion - in the lineup for a game in Cincinnati for the first time since the Reds traded him away back in 2009 - greeted the new guy with a three run homer. Casey Janssen closed the 14-9 final.
You don't forget a game like that! I'll bet some of you remember it your own selves. And St Vincent was fabulous. A memorable night.
Matchups
Mon 1 Sep - Bassitt (11-7, 4.14) vs Greene (5-4, 2.81)
Tue 2 Sep - Berrios (9-5, 3.95) vs Lodolo (8-7, 3.22)
Wed 3 Sep - Bieber (1-1, 2.38) vs Littell (9-8, 3.63)
Obviously, the Jays haven't faced the Cincinnati Reds very often. This is just their fifth ever visit to Cincinnati, and yet - one of those treks to south-western Ohio gave us one of the more memorable games of the millennium. I remember it vividly and I wasn't even watching.
It was a Friday night in June 2014. I was downtown in Dundas Square, where St Vincent was doing a free show to promote her eponymous fourth album. Liam Hendriks was the Blue Jays starter, and the Reds beat him senseless. It was 8-0 after two innings, which would have been roughly when I headed for the subway. The baseball might suck, but Annie's guitar playing would surely make up for that.
Well, Annie was great, and she was also really weird. Which was also cool. Still, I found myself distracted by a large video screen across the way. It was showing the baseball game. And the Jays seemed to be creeping back into it. After six, the Jays were trailing 9-5; an inning later they had scored another three runs, and in the eighth inning they tied it up. They had been trailing by eight! It was all over! How did this happen? I had no idea.
Anyway, Cincinnati sent their closer out to work the ninth. It was that same fellow who's now closing games for the Red Sox. And after a couple of hits, a couple of walks, the Jays somehow had an 11-9 lead. Chapman got the hook, and Edwin Encarnacion - in the lineup for a game in Cincinnati for the first time since the Reds traded him away back in 2009 - greeted the new guy with a three run homer. Casey Janssen closed the 14-9 final.
You don't forget a game like that! I'll bet some of you remember it your own selves. And St Vincent was fabulous. A memorable night.
Matchups
Mon 1 Sep - Bassitt (11-7, 4.14) vs Greene (5-4, 2.81)
Tue 2 Sep - Berrios (9-5, 3.95) vs Lodolo (8-7, 3.22)
Wed 3 Sep - Bieber (1-1, 2.38) vs Littell (9-8, 3.63)
