Pitching Situation December 2nd

• 26 ERA is what Steamer predicts - easiest free one I could access at the moment)
• Age is as of July 1st 2026
• Stats otherwise are for 2025
• Options are as of now, so we can quickly tell who can be demoted and who could be lost if the Jays try to demote them
• SIERA is a method shown to be more accurate in predicting next years ERA than ERA/FIP/or most other methods.
• Note: used the SIERA column to indicate if the player was somewhere other than the majors for all of 2025 (Korea, minors, injured) - in those cases the stats are for wherever they spent the year.

First projected starters...

Who	T	Age	Here Until	SIERA	ERA	FIP	IP	GS	26 ERA	Options
Kevin Gausman	R	35	2026	3.79	3.59	3.41	193.0	32	4.05	--
Dylan Cease	R	30	2032	3.58	4.55	3.56	168.0	32	3.60	--
Shane Bieber	R	31	2026	3.52	3.57	3.35	40.3	7	3.86	--
Trey Yesavage	R	23	2031	3.87	3.21	2.35	14.0	3	3.86	3
Cody Ponce	R	32	2028	Korea	1.89	2.15	180.7	29	4.08	1
José Berríos	R	32	2026+	4.46	4.17	4.65	166.0	30	4.52	--
Eric Lauer	L	31	2026	3.88	3.18	3.85	104.7	15	4.27	--

Minor League starters (on 40 man)....

Who	T	Age	Here Until	SIERA	ERA	FIP	IP	GS	26 ERA	Options
Jake Bloss	R	25	2031+	minors	6.46	4.76	23.7	6	4.39	1
Ricky Tiedemann	L	23	2031+	injured	--	--	--	--	4.09	3
Adam Macko	L	25	2031+	minors	4.76	3.89	81.3	14	4.38	1
Bowden Francis	R	30	2029	4.88	6.05	6.85	64.0	14	4.27	1
Lazaro Estrada	R	27	2031+	2.72	8.59	5.18	7.3	0	4.19	2
Angel Bastardo	R	24	2030+	injured	--	--	--	--	4.02	--

Major League relievers....

Who	T	Age	Here Until	SIERA	ERA	FIP	IP	G	26 ERA	Options
Jeff Hoffman	R	33	2027	3.21	4.37	4.90	68.0	71	3.46	--
Yimi García	R	35	2026	3.86	3.86	3.85	21.0	22	3.62	--
Louis Varland	R	28	2030	3.13	2.97	3.14	72.7	74	3.56	1
Tommy Nance	R	35	2029	2.84	1.99	1.87	31.7	30	3.83	0
Brendon Little	L	29	2030	3.66	3.03	2.92	68.3	79	3.43	1
Yariel Rodríguez	R	29	2028	4.27	3.08	4.40	73.0	66	3.98	--

Minor League Relievers (40 man)...

Who	T	Age	Here Until	SIERA	ERA	FIP	IP	G	26 ERA	Options
Braydon Fisher	R	25	2030+	3.09	2.70	3.02	50.0	52	4.05	3
Mason Fluharty	L	24	2030+	3.78	4.44	3.97	52.7	55	3.97	2
Justin Bruihl	L	29	2029+	3.42	5.27	4.16	13.7	15	3.97	0
Paxton Schultz	R	28	2030+	3.43	4.38	4.07	24.7	13	4.28	2

Free Agents of note (relievers only - can't imagine the Jays are going to add even more starters)....

Who	T	Age	Here Until	SIERA	ERA	FIP	IP	G	26 ERA	Options
Edwin Díaz	R	32	FA	2.18	1.63	2.28	66.3	62	2.90	--
Robert Suarez	R	35	FA	2.98	2.97	2.88	69.7	70	3.48	--
Pete Fairbanks	R	32	FA	3.48	2.83	3.63	60.3	61	3.56	--
Seranthony Domínguez	R	31	FA	3.67	3.16	3.47	62.7	67	3.74	--
Jordan Romano	R	33	FA	3.66	8.23	5.39	42.7	49	3.98	--

Now there are other prospects I could've listed (Gage Stanifer, Johnny King, assorted others) but they most likely won't factor in during 2026 but could mid-season under ideal circumstances for them (not for the Jays as it'd probably require some plan A and plan B guys to be hurt/ineffective).  So I figured best to stick to 40 man guys (easy to call up) plus a handful of interesting free agents.  Romano mostly due to his history here - I don't see any chance he returns except as an invitee to spring training with no guarantee.  His SIERA shocked me given his insane 8.23 ERA - guy must've had rotten luck.

I thought about adding BB%, SO%, GB% but really, we care most about how effective will they be at preventing runs and the assorted numbers I give above should give a good view on that.  Diaz really does stand out among relievers doesn't he?