Past Drafts

Thursday, July 09 2026 @ 11:15 PM EDT

Contributed by: June Northey

Given we are headed towards another draft I figured it might be a good idea to review the past, as we prepare for the future.  Will we see another Yesavage, a Halladay, or an Augie Schmidt? Time will tell.  

So how have past drafts gone?  Let's do a basic run down by GM using Baseball Reference.  FYI: they include unsigned guys as part of the WAR which skyrockets AA but isn't much of a factor otherwise.

Who Years Best WAR/Year Best Year Worst Best unsigned
Gillick 1977-1994 Dave Stieb  42.4 1989 - Olerud & Kent 1980 - none reached, 2nd overall pick Scott Erickson
Ash 1995-2001 Roy Halladay  47.1 1995 - Halladay 2000 - Dustin McGowan as good as it got Ted Lilly 
JPR 2002-2009 Aaron Hill 18.4 2009 - Yan Gomes, 13 reached 2008 - Eric Thames James Paxton 
AA 2010-2015 Aaron Nola  45.9 2011 - Nola, Pillar, Musgrove 15 reached 2015 - Brady Singer (DNS) Kris Bryant 
AA (Signed only) 2010-2015 Marcus Stroman  26.5 2011 -Pillar, Musgrove
10 reached		 2015 - Travis Bergen sub 1 WAR Aaron Nola
Atkins 2016-now Bo Bichette 5.7 2016 - Bo & Biggio 2022 - Fluharty & Roden, negative WAR net Shea Langeliers

Note: For Atkins I listed both Nola and Bryant as those 2 were crazy good 'nearly a Jay' guys.  Always interesting - never fair to the most recent GM as so many are still in the minors.  Still, Atkins overall has done poorly in the draft, his pre-2020's averaged just 13.4 and they've had time to reach.  Lots of promise in the current crew but outside of Yesavage I don't think any have shown star quality at the ML level.  A few might, but not yet.

As to rounds...Highlights are 30+ WAR guys... (40+ I list the WAR)
  1. Halladay (64.2), Shawn Green, and Chris Carpenter. 
  2. David Wells (53.5)
  3. John Olerud (58.1), Jimmy Key (48.9)
  4. nightmare - none at 8 WAR even (current contenders to break that are Chad Dallas, Sean Keys)
  5. Dave Stieb (56.4), Pat Hentgen
Others are Jesse Barfield (9th), Jeff Kent (20th 55.4), Aaron Nola (DNS 22nd), Woody Williams (28th), Orlando Hudson (33rd DNS & 43rd).

Latest drafted to reach was  Chris Woodward 1994 round 54 (1.1 bWAR), latest drafted but didn't sign is Tom Marsh (1987 70th round, -0.8 bWAR), latest picked was round 75 (1478th pick overall) in 1989 - Bert Emanuel who never played as a pro.

How good is the shot at getting a 30+ WAR star, shot at a HOF?  Low. 50+ers are rare - 5 in 50 years.  30+ a touch less rare - 12 signed, plus twice didn't sign so about 1 in 4 years.  Under Atkins we should have had 2-3 of them.  Bo will probably get there, Yesavage certainly has a chance but is far, far away, but who else?  No idea.

Now, this year is more limited than normal due to high spending last year, signing a top free agent, you get the idea.  So what picks do we have and what is possible?  61 drafts have happened.
That is it for this years draft (20 rounds) and the history of each pick.  So best case is Barry Bonds, Tom Seaver, and Albert Pujols (very unlikely but oh what a dream...), but more really good guys showed up than I expected, even if you limit it to those who signed.  Hader, Hrbek, Tyler Rogers, Dozier, Crisp, Whitson, Plunk, Ortiz, Lynn, Baylor drafting a guy at their levels (10-30 WAR) would be very nice to get with the Jays picks.  But even then you got just 13 out of 61 x 20 = 1220 picks over 61 years or a 1% shot at a guy like that.  Yikes, pretty low odds.  Basically I'd expect the Jays to go for the best potential at each pick that they feel could sign.  If a guy drops unexpectedly ala Austin Martin in 2020 (ranked #2, got at #5), or Trey Yesavage in '24 (ranked #11, got at #20) they'll pounce.  Lets hope someone drops or the Jays have someone unknown on their radar ala Pujols with the Cards (very, very unlikely, but can dream).

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