The Burley mojo works again....not. The Jays could not overcome a rough first inning. Homers by Alex Rios and Russ Adams made the game interesting for a while, but that was really it. From the larger perspective, the show of oomph from Adams, Rios and Hill bodes well for the future. And that's our topic for today.
Spring has gone, and it seems like a good time to look forward. 2007 is the last year of the contracts of Roy Halladay, Eric Hinske, Vernon Wells, Corey Koskie and last but not least, JP Ricciardi. Amazingly, it is just over 1 and 1/2 seasons away, so in looking at the 2007 depth chart, our crystal ball need not be perfectly clear. For today's purposes, we'll look only at players in the Jay minor league system, or those with the big club who will not have sufficient service to achieve free agency by 2007 or who are under contract for 2007. So, Gregg Zaun does not qualify because he is under contract only through 2006 and will be eligible for free agency in 2007.
Catcher
Guillermo QuirozThe ability of either of these minor leaguers to be a major league catcher in 2007 is highly conjectural, Quiroz due to injury and Thigpen due to developmental questions. It seems pretty clear that additional support will need to be obtained. It may be as simple as re-signing Zaun after 2006.
First Base
Eric HinskeIt's highly doubtful that all 3 of Hinske, Cannon and Koskie will be with the club in 2007, but Hinske and Koskie are under contract for that year and Cannon is on a pace to be here then too. Koskie will be 34 in 2007, and with his injury history, and the presence of Aaron Hill, I've placed him at first base. The current talent might very well be sufficient.
Second Base
Orlando HudsonRoberts is in his second year at second base, after playing third in his last two years of college and in his first year after signing. Whether he can play major league-quality defence at second is conjectural, so I am listing him at second and third. The larger question from where we stand in 2005 is how the O-Dog will hit. He will probably hit enough to play every day in 2007, but to expect more than that requires undying faith (which I have). Help is probably not needed here.
Shortstop
Russ AdamsWhether Adams and Hill will be stars or not, it seems pretty clear to me that they will have an adequate major leaguer, at the very least, here in 2007. My guess is that Russ Adams opens 2007 as the Jays shortstop and plays 155 games.
Third Base
Aaron HillCheck out the depth here. Aaron Hill will probably take this job and run with it over the next 6 years at least, but it never hurts to have a back-up plan in case of injury or position switch (Hill still might end up as a shortstop). Hattig and Roberts fill this role very well.
Outfield
Vernon WellsIt's a little thin here. Wells will almost certainly be a major league quality outfielder in 2007, and Rios probably will be. Gross and Lind may be, but you wouldn't want to bet the farm on it.
The pitching staff
Roy Halladay
Gustavo Chacin
Dave Bush
Josh Towers
Jason Frasor
Vinny Chulk
Scott Downs
Francisco Rosario
Brandon League
Zach Jackson
Josh Banks
Shaun Marcum
Jamie Vermilyea
David Purcey
Ricky Romero
Vince Perkins
Dustin McGowan
Jason Arnold
Chad Gaudin
Out of these 19 pitchers, it is doubtful that more than 9 will be on 25 man roster when 2007 opens. But, when you can look forward a year and a half, and see 9-10 reasonable possibilities for 5 starting slots, you are in very good shape.
The Jays of 2007 look very good, but how good should a team look at that distance? Let's nip into the way-back machine for a moment to the summer of 2003. Do you remember? The Jays of Crash and Tom Wilson, Carlos and O-Dog were playing very, very well. Alex Rios and Guillermo Quiroz were having breakout seasons in New Haven, and Dustin McGowan and Dave Bush had just made the trip north from Dunedin. Gustavo Chacin was a young struggling pitcher in New Haven.
Here's how we might have imagined the 2005 team in the summer of 2003.
Catcher
Guillermo Quiroz-you never know with catchers, but he's off to a great start this year, and he played well for 1/2 a season last year in Dunedin.
Kevin Cash- it's not yet known whether he will hit enough to be an everyday catcher, but with his defensive skills, he should at least be a quality backup.
Jayson Werth-he's listed here, but he could equally well be a third baseman or a super-sub by the time he makes it to the Show for good. He should be a fairly good hitter wherever he ends up.
First Base
Josh Phelps- He can obviously (!) hit, but will he be able to play first base? It'd be nice if Carlos Delgado would DH 15 or 20 times to give him a chance to learn.
Second Base
Orlando Hudson- He plays excellent defence, he's young and there's potential for improvement in his bat. He'll be league average or better in 2005.
Shortstop
Chris Woodward- He's not great with the glove, but he's got enough pop in the bat to perhaps develop into a Bill Russell quality shortstop.
Russ Adams-there are real questions about whether he's got enough pop in his bat to hit major league pitching and whether he's got the arm to be a major league shortstop, but he's made reasonable progress so far in New Haven and he's still young.
Aaron Hill- there seems to be a logjam at short, but he was a terrific first round pick. Whether he'll be ready in 2005 is anyone's guess, but it's possible.
Third Base
Eric Hinske- His defence is poor and he's struggled this season with a wrist injury, but you'd guess that he will have some value in 2005 after his 2002 ROY campaign.
Outfield
Vernon Wells- fits the profile of a coming superstar to the T.
Alex Rios-1/2 a season in double A is certainly not a basis for projecting stardom, but there is good reason for optimism here
Gabe Gross-putting it together in double A after an off-season in 2002
Reed Johnson-came out of nowhere, and so it is not certain how he will be in 2005
Pitching Staff
Roy HalladayAnd there's your main difference between the long-range state of the team in 2005 vs. 2003. You could tell in 2003 that quite a few pitchers would have to be obtained before 2005. Rosario had just had arm surgery, and his recovery was uncertain. Peterson had just been promoted to double A. League and Perkins had just been promoted to Dunedin.
Looking at the 2003 list is a sobering reminder of the unevenness of development patterns. It is perhaps not the most encouraging sign that on balance the young players of 2003 went backwards as opposed to forwards over the year and a half. Hopefully, the young talent of June, 2005 will do better than their predecessors.
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