The Drive of Aught-Five – Can the Jays Do It?

Friday, August 19 2005 @ 10:23 AM EDT

Contributed by: Jonny German

No game report today, but Blue Jay fans are feeling good with their team having won 7 of their last 9 contests, including 2 of 3 in their latest series with the American League West front-running Angels of Anaheim in Los Angeles, South of San Francisco, California, United States of America. The Angels were glad to see the Jays leave town after getting an up-close look at the Fighting Jay spirit, and celebrated by stomping the Boston Red Sox 13 - 4 last night. That left the Jays 6-1/2 back of the first place Sox in the American League East. The New York Yankees occupy second, 2-1/2 games up on the Jays. Toronto is only 4 back of Oakland in the American League Wild Card standings, but have 3 additional teams they must trample in their quest to wrest that Card from the A’s – Minnesota, Cleveland, and those vile Yankees.

Let’s look at all that in the traditional tabular format:

AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Boston   	69	50	.580	-	685	606
New York 	65	54	.546	4	648	594
Toronto  	63	57	.525	6.5	591	505
Baltimore	60	60	.500	9.5	559	582
Tampa Bay	48	73	.397	22	563	712
Wild Card	W	L	Pct	GB	RS	RA
Oakland  	67	53	.558	-	576	500
New York 	65	54	.546	1.5	648	594
Cleveland	65	56	.537	2.5	564	506
Minnesota	64	57	.529	3.5	532	491
Toronto  	63	57	.525	4	591	505
Baltimore	60	60	.500	7	559	582
And now, let’s take a quick jog down memory lane. We’re looking not for insight into the Blue Jay playoff hopes this year, but rather just to enjoy the nostalgia of years past. As nostalgia is wont to do, this will focus on the good times, but we must begin with the most recent past, and it wasn’t pretty. Here’s how the AL East looked at the end of play on August 18, 2004:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
New York 	75	44	.630	-	654	581
Boston   	67	52	.563	8	677	570
Baltimore	57	62	.479	18	614	628
Tampa Bay	55	65	.458	20.5	518	585
Toronto  	49	72	.405	27	516	599
To finish with 94 loses as that club did, the current Jay squad would have to go 5 – 37 the rest of the way. I’ve calculated the chances of that happening at negative 6 percent, and have concluded I’m very happy that 2005 is not 2004.

August 2003 was a happier time, but it was after the 18th of that month that the club would really put it together to finish the season 8 games over .500. Here’s how the East looked that day:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
New York 	76	47	.618	-	668	544
Boston   	71	53	.573	5.5	736	637
Toronto  	61	63	.492	15.5	690	651
Baltimore	57	66	.463	19	610	612
Tampa Bay	50	73	.407	26	547	661
Skipping a few years we find ourselves in 2000, one of Gord Ash’s paper tiger teams. They looked pretty good the morning of August 19, bolstered by the trading deadline additions of Steve Trachsel and – many apologies for this – Esteban Loaiza.
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
New York 	66	52	.559	-	661	572
Boston   	63	55	.534	3	588	535
Toronto  	63	60	.512	5.5	686	716
Baltimore	53	68	.438	14.5	621	731
Tampa Bay	52	68	.433	15	581	641
Leapfrogging 1999 we arrive in 1998 and the year of Tim Johnson, the first year since the Glory Days that the Toronto nine were a respectable lot. The AL East looked like this through games of August 18:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
New York 	92	30	.754	-	742	464
Boston   	73	50	.593	19.5	686	555
Baltimore	67	58	.536	26.5	665	599
Toronto  	63	62	.504	30.5	607	628
Tampa Bay	48	75	.390	44.5	453	571
This was a team ready to go on a breakneck run. By September 1st they had passed the Orioles and sat 28 games back of New York, 9 back of the Wild Card Red Sox. Two weeks later they were 4 back of Boston. The closest they would get was 3-/12 back, first reached on September 21st, and they eventually finished 4 games out.

Was that a mention of the Glory Days above? Ah yes, the Glory Days! August 19, 1993:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	71	51	.582	-	626	569
New York 	69	53	.566	2	633	558
Boston   	65	54	.546	4.5	502	466
Baltimore	64	57	.529	6.5	576	548
Detroit  	63	60	.512	8.5	690	638
Cleveland	55	65	.458	15	572	596
Milwaukee	48	72	.400	22	529	590
The WAMCO Jays separated themselves from the pack over the final month, finishing 7 games ahead of the Yankees while the Sox went into a massive tailspin to end up with a losing record.

Actually, if memory serves they were the HWMCOA Jays by August… At any rate, on to 1992!
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	70	49	.588	-	572	508
Baltimore	66	53	.555	4	552	486
Milwaukee	63	55	.534	6.5	507	467
Detroit  	58	63	.479	13	599	604
Boston   	55	64	.462	15	442	464
Cleveland	54	65	.454	16	480	544
New York 	54	65	.454	16	513	551
The pesky Brewers finished up in 2nd, 4 games back, and according to Mr. Pythagoras should have taken the division by 5 games. Perhaps the crusty old Greek is paying the Jays back this year.

Here’s how the 1991 Blue Jays looked after August 18:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	65	54	.546	-	481	461
Detroit  	62	57	.521	3	613	613
Boston   	59	59	.500	5.5	515	512
Milwaukee	55	63	.466	9.5	560	592
New York 	53	63	.457	10.5	504	561
Baltimore	48	70	.407	16.5	502	595
Cleveland	38	79	.325	26	415	537
I've got nothing to say about this one, except that Kevin Morton collected the 3rd win of his career on August 18th, going a strong 7-2/3 as Boston defeated KC. He's the only Morton to play in the bigs in my lifetime, and he played just the one season. Not that I have any recollection of him. He was 22 years old in 1991, pitched not horribly, and was a former first round pick. I wonder what happened to him.

I suppose I should point out for those of you feeling real confused just now that my surname isn’t actually ‘German’.

How about those ’89 Jays?
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Baltimore	63	58	.521	-	546	525
Milwaukee	64	60	.516	0.5	542	520
Toronto  	62	60	.508	1.5	553	510
Cleveland	58	64	.475	5.5	467	490
Boston   	57	63	.475	5.5	560	568
New York 	56	66	.459	7.5	537	604
Detroit  	45	77	.369	18.5	459	594
This was the first year I remember really being a baseball fan, mood rising and falling with the wins and the losses, the runs scored and the runs allowed. Their eventual 89 wins is one of those random numbers etched in my brain, along with their 12 – 24 record in May when Jimy One-M was canned and replaced interim by Cito Gaston, and Freddy McGriff’s 36 homers to take the AL title after a year-long battle with Cleveland’s Joe Carter.

My first-hand memories of 1985 are mostly just names on the radio – Garcia and Barfield seem to be the most prominent – but no nostalgic Jays discussion would be complete without a mention of this excellent team. August 19, 1985:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	73	44	.624	-	564	425
New York 	67	48	.583	5	605	467
Detroit  	63	53	.543	9.5	511	491
Baltimore	60	54	.526	11.5	591	541
Boston   	57	58	.496	15	535	513
Milwaukee	52	62	.456	19.5	496	544
Cleveland	38	78	.328	34.5	463	589
Unfortunately, the discussion also wouldn’t be complete without the 1987 club, the team that produced the only Blue Jay MVP to date and the most crushing regular-season defeat in Toronto baseball history. Here’s where they sat at the end of the day, August 18:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	71	48	.597	-	622	492
Detroit  	69	47	.595	0.5	663	538
New York 	68	51	.571	3	602	552
Milwaukee	62	57	.521	9	630	643
Boston   	57	62	.479	14	632	621
Baltimore	54	65	.454	17	568	623
Cleveland	46	73	.387	25	527	698
Well, that was mostly fun, and snapping back to the present, that’s fun too. Who’s on the bandwagon? Can this team overcome the logjam of teams ahead of them and secure an improbable playoff berth? If not, can they score the very satisfying victory of passing New York into second place? I know the chances of a Toronto post-season are slim, but I’m on the wagon and plan on enjoying the ride.


Many thanks to Retrosheet for making it very easy to look at August 18 in any given Major League season.

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