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No game report today, but Blue Jay fans are feeling good with their team having won 7 of their last 9 contests, including 2 of 3 in their latest series with the American League West front-running Angels of Anaheim in Los Angeles, South of San Francisco, California, United States of America. The Angels were glad to see the Jays leave town after getting an up-close look at the Fighting Jay spirit, and celebrated by stomping the Boston Red Sox 13 - 4 last night. That left the Jays 6-1/2 back of the first place Sox in the American League East. The New York Yankees occupy second, 2-1/2 games up on the Jays. Toronto is only 4 back of Oakland in the American League Wild Card standings, but have 3 additional teams they must trample in their quest to wrest that Card from the A’s – Minnesota, Cleveland, and those vile Yankees.

Let’s look at all that in the traditional tabular format:

AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Boston   	69	50	.580	-	685	606
New York 	65	54	.546	4	648	594
Toronto  	63	57	.525	6.5	591	505
Baltimore	60	60	.500	9.5	559	582
Tampa Bay	48	73	.397	22	563	712
Wild Card	W	L	Pct	GB	RS	RA
Oakland  	67	53	.558	-	576	500
New York 	65	54	.546	1.5	648	594
Cleveland	65	56	.537	2.5	564	506
Minnesota	64	57	.529	3.5	532	491
Toronto  	63	57	.525	4	591	505
Baltimore	60	60	.500	7	559	582
And now, let’s take a quick jog down memory lane. We’re looking not for insight into the Blue Jay playoff hopes this year, but rather just to enjoy the nostalgia of years past. As nostalgia is wont to do, this will focus on the good times, but we must begin with the most recent past, and it wasn’t pretty. Here’s how the AL East looked at the end of play on August 18, 2004:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
New York 	75	44	.630	-	654	581
Boston   	67	52	.563	8	677	570
Baltimore	57	62	.479	18	614	628
Tampa Bay	55	65	.458	20.5	518	585
Toronto  	49	72	.405	27	516	599
To finish with 94 loses as that club did, the current Jay squad would have to go 5 – 37 the rest of the way. I’ve calculated the chances of that happening at negative 6 percent, and have concluded I’m very happy that 2005 is not 2004.

August 2003 was a happier time, but it was after the 18th of that month that the club would really put it together to finish the season 8 games over .500. Here’s how the East looked that day:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
New York 	76	47	.618	-	668	544
Boston   	71	53	.573	5.5	736	637
Toronto  	61	63	.492	15.5	690	651
Baltimore	57	66	.463	19	610	612
Tampa Bay	50	73	.407	26	547	661
Skipping a few years we find ourselves in 2000, one of Gord Ash’s paper tiger teams. They looked pretty good the morning of August 19, bolstered by the trading deadline additions of Steve Trachsel and – many apologies for this – Esteban Loaiza.
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
New York 	66	52	.559	-	661	572
Boston   	63	55	.534	3	588	535
Toronto  	63	60	.512	5.5	686	716
Baltimore	53	68	.438	14.5	621	731
Tampa Bay	52	68	.433	15	581	641
Leapfrogging 1999 we arrive in 1998 and the year of Tim Johnson, the first year since the Glory Days that the Toronto nine were a respectable lot. The AL East looked like this through games of August 18:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
New York 	92	30	.754	-	742	464
Boston   	73	50	.593	19.5	686	555
Baltimore	67	58	.536	26.5	665	599
Toronto  	63	62	.504	30.5	607	628
Tampa Bay	48	75	.390	44.5	453	571
This was a team ready to go on a breakneck run. By September 1st they had passed the Orioles and sat 28 games back of New York, 9 back of the Wild Card Red Sox. Two weeks later they were 4 back of Boston. The closest they would get was 3-/12 back, first reached on September 21st, and they eventually finished 4 games out.

Was that a mention of the Glory Days above? Ah yes, the Glory Days! August 19, 1993:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	71	51	.582	-	626	569
New York 	69	53	.566	2	633	558
Boston   	65	54	.546	4.5	502	466
Baltimore	64	57	.529	6.5	576	548
Detroit  	63	60	.512	8.5	690	638
Cleveland	55	65	.458	15	572	596
Milwaukee	48	72	.400	22	529	590
The WAMCO Jays separated themselves from the pack over the final month, finishing 7 games ahead of the Yankees while the Sox went into a massive tailspin to end up with a losing record.

Actually, if memory serves they were the HWMCOA Jays by August… At any rate, on to 1992!
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	70	49	.588	-	572	508
Baltimore	66	53	.555	4	552	486
Milwaukee	63	55	.534	6.5	507	467
Detroit  	58	63	.479	13	599	604
Boston   	55	64	.462	15	442	464
Cleveland	54	65	.454	16	480	544
New York 	54	65	.454	16	513	551
The pesky Brewers finished up in 2nd, 4 games back, and according to Mr. Pythagoras should have taken the division by 5 games. Perhaps the crusty old Greek is paying the Jays back this year.

Here’s how the 1991 Blue Jays looked after August 18:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	65	54	.546	-	481	461
Detroit  	62	57	.521	3	613	613
Boston   	59	59	.500	5.5	515	512
Milwaukee	55	63	.466	9.5	560	592
New York 	53	63	.457	10.5	504	561
Baltimore	48	70	.407	16.5	502	595
Cleveland	38	79	.325	26	415	537
I've got nothing to say about this one, except that Kevin Morton collected the 3rd win of his career on August 18th, going a strong 7-2/3 as Boston defeated KC. He's the only Morton to play in the bigs in my lifetime, and he played just the one season. Not that I have any recollection of him. He was 22 years old in 1991, pitched not horribly, and was a former first round pick. I wonder what happened to him.

I suppose I should point out for those of you feeling real confused just now that my surname isn’t actually ‘German’.

How about those ’89 Jays?
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Baltimore	63	58	.521	-	546	525
Milwaukee	64	60	.516	0.5	542	520
Toronto  	62	60	.508	1.5	553	510
Cleveland	58	64	.475	5.5	467	490
Boston   	57	63	.475	5.5	560	568
New York 	56	66	.459	7.5	537	604
Detroit  	45	77	.369	18.5	459	594
This was the first year I remember really being a baseball fan, mood rising and falling with the wins and the losses, the runs scored and the runs allowed. Their eventual 89 wins is one of those random numbers etched in my brain, along with their 12 – 24 record in May when Jimy One-M was canned and replaced interim by Cito Gaston, and Freddy McGriff’s 36 homers to take the AL title after a year-long battle with Cleveland’s Joe Carter.

My first-hand memories of 1985 are mostly just names on the radio – Garcia and Barfield seem to be the most prominent – but no nostalgic Jays discussion would be complete without a mention of this excellent team. August 19, 1985:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	73	44	.624	-	564	425
New York 	67	48	.583	5	605	467
Detroit  	63	53	.543	9.5	511	491
Baltimore	60	54	.526	11.5	591	541
Boston   	57	58	.496	15	535	513
Milwaukee	52	62	.456	19.5	496	544
Cleveland	38	78	.328	34.5	463	589
Unfortunately, the discussion also wouldn’t be complete without the 1987 club, the team that produced the only Blue Jay MVP to date and the most crushing regular-season defeat in Toronto baseball history. Here’s where they sat at the end of the day, August 18:
AL East  	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA
Toronto  	71	48	.597	-	622	492
Detroit  	69	47	.595	0.5	663	538
New York 	68	51	.571	3	602	552
Milwaukee	62	57	.521	9	630	643
Boston   	57	62	.479	14	632	621
Baltimore	54	65	.454	17	568	623
Cleveland	46	73	.387	25	527	698
Well, that was mostly fun, and snapping back to the present, that’s fun too. Who’s on the bandwagon? Can this team overcome the logjam of teams ahead of them and secure an improbable playoff berth? If not, can they score the very satisfying victory of passing New York into second place? I know the chances of a Toronto post-season are slim, but I’m on the wagon and plan on enjoying the ride.


Many thanks to Retrosheet for making it very easy to look at August 18 in any given Major League season.
The Drive of Aught-Five – Can the Jays Do It? | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
DepecheJay - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#126108) #
<i>but it was after the 18th of that month that the club would really put it together to finish the season 8 games over .500.</i>

Actually, they were better. The Jays finished 10 games over 500. (86-76) in 03. That was actually a fun season coming down the stretch.

Good read Johnny, I enjoyed it. And I'm not sure if you could call the Jays playoff chances slim. Sure they have a few teams in front of them, but everything is relatively close. I mean, 4 games back is their greatest defecit and that's behind the Wild Card leading A's themselves so that's not TOO bad.

Consider me as one on the bandwagon. I'm probably a bit too optimistic about the Jays chances, but I think if the pitching stays strong down the stretch this team can win some ballgames against some good teams. That defensive showing the other night was just remarkable, that's the kind of effort that gives you hope.
Mike Green - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#126109) #

Here were the 1978 AL East standings as of August 18:

                                G    W    L   PCT    GB    RS   RA
Boston Red Sox                 121   77   44  .636     -   617  479
New York Yankees               120   69   51  .575   7.5   526  449
Milwaukee Brewers              120   68   52  .567   8.5   604  498
Detroit Tigers                 119   66   53  .555  10.0   547  465
Baltimore Orioles              120   64   56  .533  12.5   472  523
Cleveland Indians              120   53   67  .442  23.5   498  527
Toronto Blue Jays              121   46   75  .380  31.0   472  589

4 games? Piece of cake!

Jordan - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#126110) #
Great research, Jonny -- it's startling to realize that this year's squad has the best record of any Blue Jays club at this point in the season since 1993.

I've been a doubter all season, and I wouldn't want to change my position now, to be burdened with the "bandwagon" label. But as Richard Griffin points out in his column today, (and when even Griff believes, you know it's a remarkable time), the circumstances for unexpected contention are here. Had Halladay and Lilly been healthy all season (and had Lilly been as effective as last year), the division might look very different -- of course, you could say the same for the Red Sox and Yankees, who have also suffered from pitching misfortunes.

The difference is that the Jays, with one half and one quarter of those teams' respective payrolls, have filled the gaps from inside and from astute acquisitions. The coming-out parties for Adams, Hill and Chacin have been a huge success, and Rios is showing very good progress. McGowan's successful cameo is further cause for optimism -- the minor leagues are finally bearing fruit in the majors.

I still believe that over the next several weeks, the Red Sox will put it together -- Foulke will return, bumping Schilling back to the rotation, and young prospects like Jon Papelbon and possibly even Craig Hansen will push them over the top. But the Yankee decline seems both precipitous and irreversible, at least for this year and possibly for next. The Jays are well situated to be a legitimate contender in 2006, and their stretch run, no matter how short this season, will help them next season and beyond. It's a very good time.

danjulien - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#126111) #
Oh the hope of it all, I believe, I have believed but we can't get ahead of ourselves, this team has to keep fighting. During the other night's game I decided to kind of find the impact of having Huckaby instead of Zaun in the lineup as a whole, although difficult to fully make things independent from other factors such as teams faced and how the pitchers were feeling that night. However, with how Zaun handles his pitchers as compared to Huckaby and the obvious offensive upgrade Zaun brings every night I figured there would be a large difference.
And therefore:
Blue Jays record in games Huckaby has caught: 11-16
Blue Jays record in games Zaun has caught: 52-40!
(Andy Dominique started and the Jays lost one game)

Starters records in games Huckaby has caught: 8-14, twice Zaun pinch hit and the Jays came back while he was behind the plate...although he was 1-5 in these two games with 8 innings caught
Starters records in games Zaun has caught: 43-29

If broken down individually some starters records are intereting to see:
Towers is 3-4 with Huck behind the plate, and 7-5 with Zaun
Bush is 0-2 with Huck behind the plate, 0-1 with Dominique 2-3 with Zaun(hopefully I can edit this post tomorrow with 3-3)
Halladay has 2 of his 4 losses with Huckaby catching for him
Walker has 1 of his 4 losses with Huckaby there, and Downs has his two losses with Huckaby behind the plate.
One starter has a better winning percentage with Huckaby behind the plate...Theodore Lilly who is 1-1 as compared to 7-8 with Zaun back there.

So what does this all mean? Obviously Zaun is quite important to our team, and he is considered as some's MVP. It's easy to see the pitchers are more comfortable with him behind the plate and enjoy better average run support with him batting then Huckaby. I might analyze pitcher's opponents batting average and obp with both catchers behind the plate, as well as ERA
alsiem - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#126112) #
I don't think it's going to happen this year but I want them to finish ahead of the Yankees.

This has been a fantastic year and the the fact that the Jays are doing this with Rookies and that they have the money to go after players in the off season gives me reason for optimism.

The Jays are number 1, all others are number 2 or lower.
jgadfly - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#126113) #
hello again, after having my modem fried by lightening in early June I'm finally back to being operational ...the J's are still teasing us with their potential but are definitely contending ...of interest - since July 19 the Jays are 18-10 ...6 of the losses by 1 run ...definitely competitive ... go J's
Mylegacy - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#126114) #
Of course the Jays would pick it up from July 19th... that's my birthday!
John Northey - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#126118) #
Things are looking up. The most interesting thing, from a bandwagon point, is the tv ratings and the like. I thinks someone posted it here before but it is worth repeating. Stats are from http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20050816&content_id=1172350&vkey=pr_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor
  • The Jays TV ratings on Sportsnet are up 76%. Wow.
  • The Aug 8th game had 571,000 viewers, the highest for a Jays game on Sportsnet ever (loss to Detroit 9-8 5 hits for Rios)
  • Attendance is up 18%
  • Merchandise sales are up 20% and the highest since '95

It seems the bandwagon is growing by the minute. To be so successful with Halladay & Lilly out is wonderful. To have it be thanks in large part to young players like Chacin, Rios, Hill, and Adams is even better.

The Drive Of Oh-Five Is Alive

GrrBear - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#126120) #
To this point, the Jays have allowed only 505 runs, which is their best number since 1991. Considering they've been without Halladay for more than a month, that's just outstanding.
Magpie - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#126123) #
Ricjard Griffin=Pollyanna. The mind reels. In other news, Men From Mars Have Landed. Film at 11.

I do like his crack about Ricciardi not diving into the FA pool this summer (because it was so shallow, he would have cracked his skull.) That's the Griffin who used to work for the Expos, and the guy we thought was coming when the Star hired him...

It's interesting that he clearly believes that drug-testing has levelled the playing field and hurt the Red Sox and Yankees. At first glance, you think - hang on. Those teams are being kept afloat by their big sluggers, and very little else.

But in truth, for some time now, an awful lot of close observers have believed that pitchers in general, and relief pitchers in particular, were possibly even more avidly taking advantage of baseball's laissez-faire attitude towards PEDs. And in fact, Griffin proceeds right away to point out that the Red Sox and Yankees have both had all kinds of problems with their pitching staffs in general, and bullpens in particular. Although he gracefully omits connecting the dot, because he doesn't want to get sued... Smooth.

The staff ERA this year is 3.97 - that's 3.81 with Zaun catching, and 4.38 with Huckaby catching. In Huckaby's previous significant tour of duty here, the staff ERA was about a run lower when he was catching, which is enormous and more than makes up for his "bat." But not this time.

John Northey - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#126125) #
Speaking of catchers ERA (which is a weak measurement, but fun anyways) does anyone know the AAA splits for Quiroz vs the other catchers?
Rob - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#126129) #
I wasn't around these parts in 2003, but I noticed this a while back.

Is it time for The Unofficial Blue Jays' Playoff Bandwagon to make its first appearance in almost 26 months?

costanza - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#126132) #
The Jays TV ratings on Sportsnet are up 76%. Wow.

Not that this isn't impressive, but one could note the fact that the Canadian sports TV landscape was a bit different in the spring of '05 than it was in the spring of '04... it might be interesting to see a month-by-month comparison...

Magpie - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#126136) #
I've been making all these colourful charts for my NL West Updates. Now, there's a good chance that none of you have even seen these pretty pictures. After all, nobody cares about the NL West, and for very good reason.

So, I thought I'd try them for the AL East. Got your attention now! Here's everybody's winning percentage - I think of it as taking everybody's temperature, every two weeks:

Here is what it looks like if you divide the season into 10 game segments. The Yankees, as you can see, have been either feast or famine:

That is all.

westcoast dude - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#126150) #
Beautiful charts, Magpie. Notice the last ten game segment: Bosox and Blue Jays bisect. We're going up, they're going down. It's not just their bullpen that's bad, look at the starters. Wakefield pitched batting practice to the Angels last night. David Wells has guts, that's about it. Arroyo is a wannabe rock star. Schilling...what can I say?
Alex0888 - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#126155) #
Maybe Wakefield should have pitched batting practise with the wire netting in front of him because he just got nailed....

The Jays are this close and they're the kind of team that would notice this and pick up the pace... they don't quit easily so we could see a good run towards the playoffs
King Ryan - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#126156) #
Those are nice, Magpie. Can you do one of the AL Central, please? I have a strange need to see Kansas City's graph....
Magpie - Friday, August 19 2005 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#126158) #
AL Central? Sure! Later, though. Cause I'm not at home right now. Look for in tomorrow's This Day In Baseball!
The Drive of Aught-Five – Can the Jays Do It? | 18 comments | Create New Account
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