Thank you for the dedicated thread.

MLBTR reports that “Sonny Gray Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause Prior To Deadline.” So the pool of SPs available in a trade this week may have gotten even smaller (note also that Lugo recently agreed to an extension with KC).

This is an interesting trade deadline because it will force the front office to make some difficult choices. Their prudent side will want to hold on to many or most of their good prospects to help ensure the team stays competitive in future seasons (we finally have a decent farm system again! Let's keep it that way!). Their more aggressive side -- call it their inner Anthopoulos -- will want to add some real talent to help ensure this team wins the division and advances in the postseason. Fans and the media/internet, and maybe also ownership, will not be kind to them if the team makes another swift exit from the playoffs.

In other words, how much should they power up for 2025, and how much prospect talent should they keep in reserve for future seasons?

Just posted in the other thread before I saw this one: Eugenio Suarez leaves the game after being hit on the hand. Jumped and ripped his hand away from the trainer when he touched it... didn't look good.

Deadline players are cursed...

Suarez x-Rays were negative.

There are suggestions that other Cleveland pitchers could be impacted by the betting investigation.

(this report is brought to you by Bet365)

Jesse Pinkman strikes again.

If I were the Blue Jays GM, I wouldn’t touch any of the Guardians pitchers in a trade right now.

The introduction of betting apps is starting to look like a scourge on MLB (and other sports).

I saw earlier that the Guardians announced MLB had advised them no other players were under investigation...

I just want to say the new pic of Varsho in the banner looks awesome.

Suarez

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1949996332875231546

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

X-rays were negative on Eugenio Suarez’s left index finger, he told reporters. Disaster averted.

Hector Gomez tweeted two hours ago that other pitchers were under investigation. I don't know where he got his info.

It's not betting apps per se, it's prop bets. They are the easiest to put the fix in.

That's what Jontay Porter did in the NBA, and what Ortiz and Clase are probably accused of. NCAA has called for them to be banned for their sports and a few states have banned them.

My gut says the Jays are working on a "wow" deal, thus the lack of real rumors - normally we are buried in then at this stage but the dead silence suggests a big one is in the works. Will it happen? Who knows. An ace level starter or a killer bat would qualify. I suspect they have a couple of relief deals waiting in the wings if the big ones fall apart or are completed (changes which prospects are available). I'd love a killer deal that blows our minds, but part of me wants to keep the current gang together. Ah well, not up to me.

Foul Territory@FoulTerritoryTV

Steven Kwan is drawing a ton of interest, though the Guardians intend to set a high bar for the return package in a trade, per @Ken_Rosenthal

The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Padres are believed to be among the teams in the mix.

This team needs to think about compressed games vs the Dodgers, Cubs and Phillies. To beat them you likely need a better roster than them. That means they aught to acquire:

* an A grade relief arm
* top of rotation starter
* top 4 bat (in your lineup)

Kwan, Ryan, and Duran are all examples of players that fit this role while also replacing impending free agents like Bassitt, Bichette and Green. Would be nifty trade deadline work to also extend your team's competitiveness past the end of the season. This is where an offices talent in the draft either helps or limits their ability to do this.

Kwan would be a great acquisition — if he’s healthy.

He fits the MO of this team perfectly. He can lead off. Play good defense in LF. Steal a base. He doesn’t strike out. He has hit well in the postseason: .347/.413/.417 in 80 PA. He’s in his prime and controllable for 2.5 seasons.

Kwan over Suarez for me.

"Kwan over Suarez for me."

Well, yeah, Kwan isn't a FA until 2028 so it's a pretty huge gap in value. He does fit the team very well but like everything, it's all a matter of cost. I do think adding a hitter would be helpful. I wouldn't want Straw starting games in the playoffs or Clement starting against RHP. I think both would be fixed by Varsho and Gimenez coming back though. Harrison Badar would be a pretty massive upgrade on Straw but don't think the Jays will go there. Jays can win without adding to offense. I don't think they can win without adding significantly to bullpen.

Adding Kwan would make sense if Santander is out for the year. At that point the team likely does need to add a hitter who is capable of starting in the OF, and while Kwan isn’t the power guy that the Jays need, he’s still an above average offensive player and there isn’t much in the trade market. If Santander is a few weeks away then it’s less of a need but I get the sense he’s done for the season. The issue with Kwan is what it would cost.

Bassitt’s start last night just emphasized that while the Jays can probably survive with their current rotation (assuming they stay healthy), it’s still lacking a true top end starter, unless Gausman is starting to turn back the clock. Bullpen is still likely to be where they can add the most impact for their buck, so I expect at least 2 relievers added, but another bat and SP is harder to predict.

One nice thing about adding Kwan (and getting Varsho and Gimenez back) is that the Blue Jays would be elevating their already-impressive team defense, which would benefit the entire pitching staff.

The quote about no other Guardians pitchers being investigated was a press release from the team that was shared by their MLB.com beat reporter, so I'd take it over Hector Gomez, who is hit and miss.

I watched Duran pitch against the Red Sox last night and he didn't look himself. Not overpowering at all - the command wasn't there at all and his K% is way down this year... not sure he's healthy... Brock Stewart looked pretty good, though.

Even though his surface numbers look worse, I'd prefer Griffin Jax to Duran. 37% K rate vs 26%, and .371 BABIP vs .298...

Jax, Stewart, and Castro for Fluharty, Watts-Brown, Stanifer, Roden, O. Martinez

Kwan definitely looks like something's bothering him. He's looked very average in June and July. It's also interesting that his defense looks very good via DRS but less so by OAA.

Thanks for those insights. How does Cease look?

Kwan's defensive value used to be his fly catching, but now it's his arm and I'm guessing things like hitting the cutoff man, routes to cut off balls, playing balls off the wall, and generally not screwing up (1 fielding error the past 3 seasons combined). His 6 errors this tear are all throwing.

For fly catching I strongly believe OAA is superior to DRS.
Kwan the past 4 seasons OAA: +10, +7, +3, -1.

Then there is the matter of dealing with the Guardians FO. From The Athletic:

The Guardians enter negotiations, one executive said, like a witness on the stand attempting not to perjure himself. “They operate in a way where they want to share as little information as possible,” another executive said. A third executive compared their haggling to squeezing every drop of moisture from a towel. Rival front offices have coined a nickname for Antonetti’s group: the Cleveland Grind Machine.

I love Kwan the ballplayer but I don't think he's a good fit for this playoff run. I say put the phone down Ross and maybe go outside for a minute and enjoy some sunshine.

The Athletic hasn't posted other executives thoughts on the Jays FO (later today or tomorrow) but I found this from Kevin Goldstein back in 2021 on his dealings with our FO in his time with the Astros.

Behavior: Aggressive. The Jays know how to get deals done. They identify players as acquisition targets, then go after them while remaining responsive and rational.

Francys Romero@francysromeroFR

Athletics 3B/LF Miguel Andujar is another player drawing interest from multiple teams ahead of the trade deadline, per sources.

Andujar is hitting .290 (.422 AVG vs. LHP) and is set to become a free agent after the 2025 season.

While Kwan would be an upgrade (his at bats are delightfully pesky), I feel like the Blue Jays already have a similar (though slightly lesser) version of that player already on the roster. His name is Nathan Lukes.

I thought the same thing, Eephus. But when I compared their Savant pages, Kwan seemed to be the significantly better player — and, as I mentioned, he has been excellent in his 80 PA of postseason play. That experience could be really helpful for the Blue Jays in the playoffs this year.

If they are going to deal with CLE (hopefully with Cade Smith coming North), Atkins really should remind them they owe him a huge solid for taking the Gimenez and Straw salaries off their hands.

Of all the potential deals I've heard suggested, I still like the pay through the nose for Joe Ryan one best of all.

Athletic Q & A
Michael H.
Starting pitching, relief pitching or hitting? What’s the priority order this deadline and who do you hope they land?

Mitch Bannon
@Michael H. I'd rank it:
1) Relief pitching
2) Starting pitching
3) Hitting

Here are some pipe dream names to fill each need - these are more guys I like than anything else:
RP: Griffin Jax (Minnesota)
SP: Jeffrey Springs (Athletics)
Bat: Ramon Laureano (Orioles) - maybe this is just from watching him hit a bomb and make a nice catch last night

Feel free to disagree, but here are my thoughts on acquiring a starting pitcher. If we get someone really good like a Keller or Ryan, Jays have 2 options.

Option 1. Trade one of the current group. Bassitt would be Ideal, although that stinker last night didn't help his value. That also means we have no depth in case of injury.

Option 2. 6 man rotation. Sounds good in theory, but why trade for someone close to ace level and then throw away 20% of his regular season value by cutting back his starts?

There is also a much cheaper fallback option. Pick up Jeffrey Springs. Shouldn't cost much since the A's supposedly aren't interested in retaining salary (under $4 million left). He has had plenty of experience relieving so he could be a long man with the current group, and a starter option in case of injury.

Or idealy Option 1 and Springs.

Per Mark Feinsand:

“At this point it seems unlikely that many controllable pieces move,” an AL executive said. “Lots of sellers are expecting to compete in the next year or two, so the asks are high for near-Major League or present-Major League help.”

“I’m generally expecting a lot of activity, but probably more on the small- to medium-scale of trades,” an NL executive said. “I’m not expecting any real top players to move.”

Jax + Springs + Laureano would be a big win for the Blue Jays, in my view.

I'd prefer Jax + Schneider/Straw + Lauer. Seeing Springs get lit up a few times has me steering clear.

Jim Bowden⚾️@JimBowdenGM

The #RedSox #Yankees #BlueJays #Phillies and #Mariners are speed dialing the #Twins at an annoying level with continued interest in Joe Ryan, basically their whole bullpen, Willi Castro and Harrison Bader. Twins could end up being the headliner at the deadline as talks heat up according to sources.

Lukes going 0-4 so far today is not making my “we already have a discount store version of Kwan” argument look all that sharp.

Dammit Eephus, stop watching the game!

Those last four runs weren’t on me, I was out of the room I swear…

At least this Orioles series thus far has illuminated this team could indeed use some depth in a few places.

Dominguez and cash for JWB. Fine with it. Need the reliever depth badly.

Green is not making a case for pitching in the postseason.

Who doesn't love it when a player swaps teams between games of a double header? Welcome aboard, Seranthony.

Good pickup. Fills the void Garcia’s injury left.

Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

Even with the Dominguez acquisition, the Blue Jays remain firmly in the hunt for Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, per sources.

Great trade. Instant upgrade to the pen. Even better if they manage to get a jersey on him by 6:30 pm.

Seems like a decent trade.

Hopefully this means the front office is saving its best trade chips for a major acquisition (Ryan or Kwan or Suarez).

Solid pen addition - Jays get Seranthony (RH reliever, free agent post 2025) and cash for Juaron Watts-Brown (23 in AA 3.48 ERA after A+ 3.62 earlier in the year, 3rd round 2023). Seranthony has 11.7 K/9 this year vs 5.2 BB/9 (yikes) but lifetime 10.6 K/9 vs 3.9 BB/9 117 ERA+. Not a 'wow', but a solid help for the pen.

So the first shoe has dropped, and it is a guy for the 7th imo, not displacing Rodriguez or Hoffman but going before them.

One thing to note about Dominguez is that he’s been better in June/July than he was in April/May.

Decent medium leverage guy for a prospect i wasn't high on. Hopefully they don't treat him like a high leverage guy.

A bit pricey. Dominguez has extreme splits so it's all about using him against the right guys and being aware of who's on the bench.

Also, this has an immediate 40 roster hit.

Apparently the asking price for good relievers is very high. This removes one item from the Blue Jays to-do list.

So what happens if they add a hitter? 3B or LF seems most likely (Suarez or Kwan for top of market) - adding an OF probably moves Barger back to 3B (Clement to 2B or platoon at 3B), adding a 3B moves Clement to 2B (platoon once Gimenez is back - which is probably ideal).

A starter would shift things to a 6 man rotation for the regular season, then whoever is hot (4 guys) goes in the playoffs. Wonder if Bassitt was thinking about that when he offered to pitch in relief pre-ASG.

Varsho returning cuts short playing time for Straw drastically and Lukes a bit. Gimenez will cut out all of Wagner's time and some of Clements (or a lot depending).

I seriously doubt a catcher will be traded for. Same for a 2B or 1B or DH. One more reliever I'm certain is coming (ideally a closer who can share duties with Hoffman so his arm isn't destroyed this year).

Decent medium leverage guy for a prospect i wasn't high on. Hopefully they don't treat him like a high leverage guy"

Exactly my opinion. I see JWB as a back of rotation/swingman/minor league depth kind of guy. Dominguez is fine in 6th and 7th and has upside if Jays can tinker with him to improve command to be better. Jays need to get one 8th/9th inning guy now.

If Dominguez is the 2nd best reliever they add this deadline, then it's a great move. It lengthens the pen and he's a legit swing and miss guy. Add someone like Helsley to partner with Hoffman at the closer position, and you could envision Hoffman-Helsley-Little-Rodriguez-Dominguez-Fisher shortening playoff games.

Good start for Atkins. Fair price.

Fangraphs and Just Baseball both released their new top-100 lists. Both have 5 Jays on them. Nimmala, Yesavage, and Stephen on both. Parker and Rojas on JB and Tiedemann and Bloss on FG.

Chad Green DFA'd to make room.

I don't love giving up Watts-Brown, but I like the aggressiveness in dumping Chad Green.

Ah good point Scott - he's clearly a roogy. I assume they'll play him to his strengths.

JWB is likely a middle reliever in his future, so I don't mind them getting something for him, though of course, I'd be hoping to trade for a reliever with an extra year, or simply a better reliever.

Gonna be an expensive deadline.

It's a bit more than I'd want to pay for a rental with a sky-high walk rate, but the Jays need relief arms and it's a seller's market. I trust the front office has been pounding the phone and feels like this was their best option.

Given the fact another reliever may be on the shopping list, I like the idea of getting one arm early.

Nailed it, Katie. Agree 100%

Honestly with our defence I’d prefer to target pitchers with great control and less swing and miss for the same value, but I see Dominguez as a premium upgrade to Chad Green. I’d really like to lean into their defense and putting the ball in play with Kwan.

Guys, Dominguez has a significant amount of high leverage experience. He has even pitched innings in the World Series (2022). Over the past two months he has a 1.19 ERA, 2.29 FIP, and 3.10 xFIP and has been overpowering hitters.

This is not a Chad Green replacement LOL, nor is it a "mid leverage" arm. Sure, theoretically if they add another true closer it pushes everyone down, but that is semantics.

This is a great add and I agree he isn't a middle reliever. He has been on a good role. Now add an elite closer and the bullpen is set.

I await to see what else this FO does. 5 players in the top 100 that's great.

Agree. The Mets gave up more (imo) to get Soto. Now cue JWB turning it on and becoming an effective big leaguer for a decade.

Nimmala is in a major slump, down to 230/325/399 for the year after a hot start. June/July OPS are 515 & 563.

Putting this in the right thread…

Unconfirmed reports Duran (RP) has been traded to the Phillies.

(This was mentioned on the Sportsnet broadcast)

Correction: he has not been traded (apparently he was just hugging his teammates). Duran is *not* on a plane to Philly.

Funny, looking over at MLB Trade Rumors I see a TON of articles saying "Team xyz Interested in player abc". Dylan Cease being one of the funniest as which contender isn't interested in him? The odd ones are Yankees interested in Andrew Heaney (5.18 FIP, 88 ERA+ - they must be desperate, he has 1 out of 12 seasons with an ERA+ over 110 - it was 2022). Mets after Ramón Laureano (142 OPS+ OF for the O's, never played more than 123 games). Many others.

They say the Jays are chasing Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Mitch Keller as well as turning over every stone for relief help. Also after David Bednar, Steven Kwan, Dylan Cease, you get the idea. Surprisingly no sign of Eugenio Suárez on that list. Be nice to get Arizona's closer - Shelby Miller - who has just 10 saves vs 5 blown but 11 holds with 28% K% and 7.7% BB%. Could be a solid fit in there with Rodriguez and the new guy, plus is a free agent post 2025 thus shouldn't be that expensive, maybe a throw in with Suarez? One can dream.

A healthy Santander gives us what Suarez does. More relief help and a LF please. Trade everyone for Ryan, Kwan and Helsley.

The Jays handing Miller a loss and blown save is, imo, when the team really got going after the bad series against the Phillies.

Stay away from Ryan (the cost will be exorbitant) and get Alcantara. Dude throws 100.

Quantity over quality

The Marlins want a bounty for Sandy.

Robbie Ray and Mackenzie Gore are two others that might be worth considering. Not sure why Gore’s name has come up.

Skenes was publicly dumping on the Pirates today. Doubt they would move him despite it probably being a prudent move.

From Will Sammon at The Athletic : After acquiring Seranthony Domínguez, the Blue Jays are looking for a swingman-type reliever and another high-leverage arm, league sources tell me and @MitchBannon.

Helsley's the high leverage guy I keep hearing. And as I guessed earlier, Springs or a Springs type.


:

SF is on the edge of contending (5 out of a WC) and Ray is signed for 2026 so I doubt they deal him unless you overpay. Mackenzie Gore on the other hand is with Washington who are above only the Rockies in the NL and isn't a free agent until after 2027 - due to those years of control again he'd be very expensive, but with the chaos there they might be looking to make changes. Washington's closer is a contact guy (Kyle Finnegan - 7.4 K/9) with a 91 ERA+ but 3.60 FIP, free agent post 2025 so he'd be cheap most likely and with our defense might be a good fit but I don't see him as a significant upgrade, if at all, over what we have.

I like Jhoan Duran in Minnesota - highest GB% of any reliever this year (65.4%) and has been over 60% every year of his career. Not a free agent until after 2027 he'd be a fantastic setup guy/backup closer. Griffin Jax is the guy in Minny most look at (14.09 K/9 same length of control) and would be fantastic but either would work really nicely imo.

As others have said, I'd empty the farm for the right starter. Seriously doubt that'll be an option though. I was in favor of Alcantara but Miami appears to be stupid-high on price for him, so I'd chase Cabrera instead (2 years younger, team control through 2028, doing better this year 129 ERA+ vs 65 for Alcantara). If I was in charge I'd be in the Eugenio Suárez race until the price got too stupid (as I suspect the Yankees decided it was) while keeping the phone open in case they feel stuck at 5 PM on the 31st and give in (ala 1993 with Rickey Henderson vs Randy Johnson - Seattle gave in at the last moment, but it was too late as the guy they wanted was already dealt for Rickey). LF/RF/3B any would work for an offensive upgrade - Barger to 3B if an OF, stays in RF if a 3B, Clement to 2B until Gimenez returns either way (then more or less platoons). Springer a full-time DH. Santander probably not back in '25 (last report on MLBTR is he wasn't swinging a bat on July 18th, safe to say the Jays would want him swinging in the minors for a week+ first before ML time not to mention needing time in Florida to get stretched back out).

Going out the door? Leo Jiménez has to be #1 on that list for hitters, followed by Wagner. Pen is messier - Nance out of options, Fluharty-Schultz-Fisher-Little have options but I doubt Little or Fisher are in danger. Estrada was up as the 27th man today I think thus is down no matter what and Lucas was already sent down, while Green was released. Garcia and Sandlin are both on the 10 day IL, but I'm not expecting either back soon (sigh) thus the need for more relievers. Rotation has to be going to a 6 man if anyone added I'd think, then Manoah optioned down if all are heathy when he is (unless no deal for a starter, then he makes it 6).

Sigh - I think I keep repeating the same stuff over and over as I keep trying to find other angles but can't see them. For a 'holy crap, didn't see that coming' I'd look at Miami with Kyle Stowers - not a free agent until after 2029, still pre-arb, but is 27 and having a 'WOW' year (160 wRC+ in 100 games vs 69 OPS+ lifetime pre-2025). He is a corner OF, and I doubt Miami would seriously trade him, but it might be the perfect time as he never did this before and with those years of control they might get some good parts for him. Just looking for the 'never considered that' deal and he caught my eye as the best hitter on a non-contender. Byron Buxton next with the Twins (signed for 3 more years at $15 mil per while in CF with a 143 OPS+). Finding great hitters on poor teams, or high end starters on them is damn hard this year.

Lots of starters with years of control keep popping up in rumours. How many will actually traded? Of the Ryan, Keller, Cabrera, Alcantara group I'll guess zero. Some team might offer a package proportionate to what the Nats got for Soto, not as much as the Soto package obviously, but a a huge overpay nonetheless. That's the only way any of those get moved.

It's at least a tier down where trades could happen. Severino may well be moved. Or maybe Taj Bradley.

Throwing 100 does not guarantee success, as we’ve seen with Alcantara (6.36 ERA) and Jordan Hicks (6.27 ERA) this year.

Meanwhile, Joe Ryan averages 93.5 on his FB, and he has a 2.82 ERA and his FB has a 99th percentile run value, per Baseball Savant.

Velo is nice for a SP to have, but it’s only one pitching attribute, and often not the most important one.

I would love Buxton, but I doubt Minnesota ever trades him: he's MVP-level talent when he's on the field, but he's only played over 100 games a season twice, and he's 31. Oh, and he hit the IL yesterday. :(

But if we're thinking often-injured MVP talents: why not Trout?

Gore comes up because Washington owners are tryingbto sell amd not addong salary to conpete on Gore's window. So people are suggesting trading him to re-align the timeline to young star hitters. Not expected to happen though.

Trout is owed about $35m per year through 2030. Last year he posted 0.9 fWAR. This year he’s amassed 1.4 fWAR. He’s almost 34. It’s hard for me to see how that trade would end well.

It's simple. Trout and the prospects you get for taking his contract + keeping Nimalla or Yesavage or other prospects is better value than trading away a boatload of prospects for Suarez and his outlier 3-4 WAR year. Trout gets you the same power for far less player cost but more $$$. Almost perfect for Toronto to replace Springer in 27.

Dan Schulman did a radio hit and made a really good point. In the playoffs the Jays will have to face one of these aces twice: Skubal, Valdez, Crochet or Fried. So look for them to add a Laureano type who can really help against LHP.

dalimon, earlier this year Keith Law ranked the LAA farm system last (#30) among all teams in MLB. And their owner has been notoriously stingy about trading away his superstars (Ohtani and Trout). So who are the prospects the Blue Jays would get from the Angels to make that trade worthwhile?

Today would be ideal to complete a trade as the off day tomorrow will give the newly acquired player(s) a chance to acclimate.

Reid Demers and Trout for Orelvis Martinez, Jimenez and Straw would be something to start with.

FWIW, I don't think there's any player on earth who can help you against Tarik Skubal.

Pirates fans want Keller moved because they recognize that he’s almost certainly going to regress. The idea that a guy with a career era around 4.5 with the stats saying he’s still that guy is actually an ace now has got to be salesmanship more than anything. Ryan is in a group of his own of those you mentioned. He consistently has a k/9 over 10 even before this year. Even Sandy, despite throwing 100mph, doesn’t dominate with stuff like that. Speaking of which, I watched his start and he began by plunking the leadoff hitter on the first pitch and then got a wild swing on the next AB on a change up. Expect to see this on pitching ninja He scattered hits but seemed more lucky than dominant. I’m not sold on the idea of emptying the farm for him. I think getting Varsho back and then hopefully Manoah and maybe seeing if Rojas can gas guys would be the adds I’m most anticipating. As to John’s point, I think Ray is just an off the board name from a team that’s behind the definitely selling Cards and closer to the Marlins and Diamondbacks than they are the Padres. He’s got a year of control left but that’s because he exercised a player option. I wouldn’t be shocked if the giants think they can improve in the offseason.

From what I recall Trout and Buxton have basically said they will never approve trades.

Dalimon - picking up ~$177 mill in Trout's salary till 2030 all so you can get a half decent right-handed bat is an absolutely absurd idea. He is a 126 wRC+ hitters this season, and god knows what that will drop to ~2 years from now.

Your idea doesn't even make logical sense: Nimmala and Yesavage are obviously not worth anywhere near what you would owe Mike Trout in salary. Oh wow, let me pick up nearly $200 mill in sunk cost on a rapidly declining player so that I don't have to trade my 19 year old A-ball SS who is hitting for 97 wRC+ this season lol.

Why wouldn't they just trade prospects for a rental bat?

Metafour,

I appreciate your passion but question your logical conclusions. Joe mentioned trading for Trout, not me. That's #1.

#2 - my post was in response to Greenfrog suggesting the trade wouldn't end well if the FO acquired Trout. My logic is sound. If you don't have a budget set and do not restrict yourself to salary blocks in a sport without a cap, then there is immense value in improving your team with a declining player by expensing money only and not prospect capital. It's called a salary dump which is a move made my most teams because it does not make logical sense to tie up so much money when you can't afford to pay. Toronto does not have that issue and short of paying 100 million annually to free agents this off season Toronto will have a decreasing budget as soon as this off season.

Look at it from a baseball value and not a budget value. If you need to get the most out of your dollars spent like customer then sure, the trade would en terribly because you're overpaying for performance but if money is not an issue (which it isn't) then ask yourself if the team would benefit from a player with Trout's power. The answer is clear as day and if you can improve the performance and power without paying in prospects then you're only benefitting the present and future performance of your team.

It's only absurd if the money you're spending factors into the equation, which on a team with one of the top three richest owners bent on competing for the first time in a decade I would argue it does not. Stop acting like the team works with notions where acquiring a player on the decline will GASP hurt their allowance dollars. If that was the case they never would have resigned Vlad to a contract that will surely and undoubtedly be an anchor in 2035...if you only value money.

Trading Nimalla would cost you about 20 - 30 million in trade value if you use the latest evaluations. That's a negative in baseball value if you are getting a player like Hellsley with much lower trade value.

To answer your question you're going to lose "baseball value" in this trade for a rental (unless you trade a lesser prospect in which case adjust the dollar amount).

By assuming a salary dump player you essentially lose no baseball value only salary value. Your cost to performance drops but your overall assets are maintained and improved.

I think we differ because I am willing to remove salary of a player from the equation of evaluation while you are not. There is nothing that says you have to pay and play someone for the length of their contract. Look at what the Jays just did with Chad Green.

Robert Murray@ByRobertMurray

Trade: The New York Yankees are acquiring right-hander Adrian Houser from the Chicago White Sox, according to sources familiar with the deal.


Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal

Source confirms: Yankees acquire OF Austin Slater from White Sox. First:
@JackCurryYES

Robert Murray@ByRobertMurray

Adrian Houser was not traded to the Yankees. It was Austin Slater. I apologize for the error.

At this point I would just be happy if we got a good closer like Helsley or Duran, so we just avoid pissing away ninth inning leads the rest of the season. Not that we have done that a lot this year, but I think it would be a move that would make a big impact on both the win loss column and putting wind in the sails of the clubhouse morale. If we got no one else other than one of those (or maybe Bednar) I'd be satisfied.


There just isn't the type of market out there where a high end starter like Joe Ryan (happy greenfrog?) or Jacob DeGrom or a Roy Halladay from 2009 is out there) is available. If Eugenio Suarez is the biggest fish out there, you know it's going to be a quiet deadline.

I would also add that I am confident a healthy Kirk, Springer, Giminez, and of course Varsho, and yes Santander (I am sticking to my hunch that his injury status is being intentionally vague in order for the team not to be used as leverage) will be enough offense to make a run in the playoffs. Should the team add a lights out closer, and everyone is healthy the team certainly is championship caliber, given there is no clear runaway AL team.

Your logic is flawed because luxury tax implications are still a thing, and regardless of Rogers being "one of the richest owners" it does not imply that the baseball budget is infinite. They clearly operate within a budget, otherwise why has Bo Bichette not been extended? What's funny is that you are just casually suggesting picking up a dead contract that would be somewhere in line with what Bichette would be "worth" on the open market. If they had any realistic interest in picking up Trout's hilarious contract (I assure you they don't) then surely they would be extending their own younger player first, right? The fact that it is very clear that they may be content to let Bichette walk should tell you that they clearly don't share the same thoughts as you with respect to the baseball payroll and the actual value of money.

You can also go a few years back and note that they took monetary/value positions as chose not to extend aging players like Bautista, Encarnacion, and Donaldson even though "they had the money, and Rogers is rich".

Comparing Trout's remaining contract to Vlad's $500M deal is nonsense. For one, Guerrero is 26 years old and can still be reasonably expected to perform for at least 5-7 more years minimum. Secondly, Guerrero's extension has a ton of goodwill baked into it that has to do with his standing as the face of the team, appeasing fan expectations after a disappointing season, sending a message and preventing a mass-rebuild, etc., etc. Washed-up Trout and his ~$180M contract provides none of those goodwill/tertiary elements which were clearly a factor in Guerrero's contract. They are well aware that from a pure WAR/$ baseball perspective Vlad is unlikely to produce $500M in value, but that doesn't mean that they will treat other players in a similar light. Every contract is not equal.

With respect to trying to value someone like Nimmala: while he is a "50-55 FV" prospect today, he is on the high-bust probability side of the scale and is not worth the same as a 50-55 FV prospect in AAA, so that FV is very flimsy to begin with. Comparing that to any reliever on a rental basis is never going to make sense (how much WAR value is Helsley going to provide in 3 months?) but yet teams still pay high prospect prices for relievers every trade deadline. Its far from a perfect science, and actual team valuation charts will have more baked into them than the simple calculators available to the public.

I appreciate the Mike Trout suggestion, even if I don’t necessarily agree with it. It’s good to think creatively about possible trades.

ditto

Metaphor (correct spelling): a figure of speech in which a word or phrase is applied to an object or action to which it is not literally applicable. That explains a bunch...

"Your logic is flawed because luxury tax implications are still a thing"
- That doesn't make something flawed. Poor explanation.

"They clearly operate within a budget, otherwise why has Bo Bichette not been extended?"
- Please tell me what their budget is then since they "clearly operate" within it. There's many reasons why a player may not be extended including the very obvious reason that it is not up to the team. If you think that this FO extending Bo = "no more clear budget" then it is your logic that is flawed.

"What's funny is that you are just casually suggesting picking up a dead contract that would be somewhere in line with what Bichette would be "worth" on the open market."
- wrong again ... I didn't suggest picking up the dead contract of Trout, Joe did.

"If they had any realistic interest in picking up Trout's hilarious contract (I assure you they don't)"
- Thanks I can now rest assured that there is 0% chance that Joe's suggestion won't bear fruit because Metafour from the online community has formally confirmed as much.

"The fact that it is very clear that they may be content to let Bichette walk should tell you that they clearly don't share the same thoughts as you with respect to the baseball payroll and the actual value of money."
- it just sounds to me like you're hurt that Bo Bichette wants to test free agency and that is proof of your understanding of how the FO values budgets and money. That is flawed logic my friend.

"You can also go a few years back and note that they took monetary/value positions as chose not to extend aging players like Bautista, Encarnacion, and Donaldson even though "they had the money, and Rogers is rich".
- Right, let's use 9 years ago as a frame of reference for a team that just spent 500 million on a player in the past 6 months.

"Comparing Trout's remaining contract to Vlad's $500M deal is nonsense. For one, Guerrero is 26 years old and can still be reasonably expected to perform for at least 5-7 more years minimum. Secondly, Guerrero's extension has a ton of goodwill baked into it that has to do with his standing as the face of the team, appeasing fan expectations after a disappointing season, sending a message and preventing a mass-rebuild, etc., etc. Washed-up Trout and his ~$180M contract provides none of those goodwill/tertiary elements which were clearly a factor in Guerrero's contract. They are well aware that from a pure WAR/$ baseball perspective Vlad is unlikely to produce $500M in value, but that doesn't mean that they will treat other players in a similar light. Every contract is not equal."
- So you do understand that money is not the only sense of value for this FO.

"With respect to trying to value someone like Nimmala: while he is a "50-55 FV" prospect today, he is on the high-bust probability side of the scale and is not worth the same as a 50-55 FV prospect in AAA, so that FV is very flimsy to begin with. Comparing that to any reliever on a rental basis is never going to make sense (how much WAR value is Helsley going to provide in 3 months?) but yet teams still pay high prospect prices for relievers every trade deadline. Its far from a perfect science, and actual team valuation charts will have more baked into them than the simple calculators available to the public."
- "Trout is not worth his performance because of the length of his contract and annual salary" or "expensive rentals which help push you over the top are worth the overall loss in WAR value..." you need to pick one of these arguments. You seem to believe overpaying Trout is a bad decision but overpaying Helsley is not. If they improve your team and you don't care about money or FV of prospects then what is your hang up with a player like Trout playing LF instead of Davis Schneider?

Not saying we should trade for Trout - but if we did, it's possible he hits ~102 WAR (he's at 87 now, 14-15 WAR over 5-6 years isn't out of the realm of possibility for Mike Trout), at which point he would pass Pujols and be #20 all-time. If he wins a World Series with the Jays, it's possible he wears a Jays cap in Cooperstown. Currently, the highest up on that list that's ever played for the Jays (unless I missed one) is Frank Thomas around #50.

If we're talking non-salary / intangibles and all that..

From Feinstand: "The Guardians are “trying to move” both Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, per source. Bieber made his fourth rehab start on Tuesday, striking out seven with no walks in four innings. He’s returning from April 2024 Tommy John surgery and has a $16M player option ($4M buyout) for 2026."

I wonder what it would take to get both Kwan and Bieber.

Marc, you're on the clock...

I'll guess with a package of Nimalla, Loperfido and Stephen along with Stanifer. Interested to see how it compares to Marc's.

Adrian Houser scratched from his start.

Bieber and Kwan is an interesting idea, even if Bieber isn’t exactly what the team needs (he’s neither a front-of-the-rotation SP nor a swingman).

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

BREAKING: The Cincinnati Reds are acquiring third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates, sources tell ESPN. Hayes is among the best defensive players in baseball and has five years of club control beyond this season.

Wasn't Hayes the guy someone here wanted to trade Vladdy for a couple years ago?

Shane Bieber is absolutely a front of the rotation piece.

Maybe. He has pitched 12 innings since 2023 (due to TJ surgery).

It’s like saying Manoah is absolutely a front-of-the-rotation piece because he was good in 2022.

Your comparison of those two pitchers doesn't hold up. One has a much longer track record of success than the other.

Bieber does have more mileage on his arm, which may or may not be a good thing. And his velo has dropped from around 93 to 91.

But he does have a good track record. He could be good again. I would not be comfortable asserting he will “absolutely” be that guy going forward, especially in 2025 — sometimes it takes a while to come all the way back fromTJ surgery. And some guys never regain their former level of performance, as we saw with Chad Green.

So let's agree Bieber could be an ace or something less depending how much he can return to his former self. No point asserting him as anything otherwise.

Andrew Painter is the ask from the Twins to the Phillies for Duran, apparently.

Yeah, he's a frontline starter coming back from major surgery. In terms of what to expect going forward, who knows (see Alcantara, Sandy), but I think you have to pitch your way out of being a frontline starter (like Manoah did in 2023), or show you can't find your way back to the mound. I wonder what the price is for him, because I'm definitely interested in taking a shot. Anyone read what his stuff and command has been like?

As for Painter / Duran, well, the Twins can always ask. If they don't come off it, though, he isn't moving.

MBTR has Jhoan Duran listed as 'likely traded' via Jon Heyman who says 'talks are heating up' as does Mark Feinsand. Mariners, Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox seen as likely destinations but he would be sweet here. They are pushing for Phillies top 10 in MLB prospect Andrew Painter for him which would be a gross overpay.

No question the Jays need to add more relief help, and in a perfect world an ace starter and a slugger. But right now 1 more solid reliever would make me happy.

Will Sammon@WillSammon

The Giants are acquiring Jose Butto, Drew Gilbert and Blade Tidwell from the Mets in the deal for right-handed reliever Tyler Rogers, league sources confirmed.
@Joelsherman1 and @ByRobertMurray on it.

I was hoping for a Detmers trade until LAA decided to show why they're in the situation they're in in the first place. Why are they buying anything right now, other than plane tickets to send their players out of town.

My focus for the deadline would be another high-end reliever and maybe another, and then a frontline-possible starter, whether it's someone like Alcantara, now Bieber, Keller, or as a stretch goal, Ryan. An alternative to that could be an interesting person to swing between the two in Howser or Sorotka. Then I'd probably run a 6-man rotation for august at least and let things sort themselves out.

That's a haul for Tyler Rogers.

For Kwan and Bieber (and lerts toss in a reliever, Erik Sabrowski)...

Nimmala, Stephen (assuming injury is not elbow/shoulder), Tiedemann (assuming medicals look good), O. Martinez, Wagner, and Roden

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

The Seattle Mariners have acquired left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Pittsburgh Pirates, sources tell ESPN.

Both Rogers brothers dealt on the same day.

I am not looking forward to seeing the package for another reliever based on what the Mets paid for Tyler Rogers, who is admittedly a quite solid arm.

The value of Kwan is that he gets on base, but his OBP is only .351. Career is .358.

The Jays have 5 regulars with higher OBP. 6 if counting Loperfido.

Big prospect get for Ferguson. Relievers are costing an arm and a leg. No idea what Angels are doing but they are consistently one of the dumbest organizations in baseball so no surprise there.

Fluharty, Clase, and Macko is probably a reasonable comp for what the Mets got for FA-to-be Rogers, a high leverage but non-closer.

In 2023 Shane Bieber was in the 2% percentile in average exit velocity and 3% of hard hit percentage. His fastball velo was down and he didn't resemble the ace he used to be.

He may be a different pitcher (or closer to the old version of Bieber) post-surgery and recovery, but the 2023 version of Bieber was someone a team would slot towards the back of the rotation, not the front.

Because we are over 120 posts here with lots of time and deals left, I started a new 24 hours to go thread to stop this one getting too big.