Predicting the Market

Saturday, November 10 2007 @ 12:01 PM EST

Contributed by: Pistol

Jon Heyman at CNNSI.com predicts the contracts of the top free agents this offseason.

Here are the estimates:

1. Alex Rodriguez. 10 years, $320 million.

2. Torii Hunter. 6 years, $90 million.

3. Andruw Jones. 5 years, $80 million.

4. Aaron Rowand. 4 years, $56 million.

5. Jorge Posada. 4 years, $52 million

6. Mike Lowell. 4 years, $52 million.

7. Francisco Cordero. 4 years, $44 million.

8. Mariano Rivera. 3 years, $42 million.

9. Carlos Silva. 4 years, $40 million.

10. Kyle Lohse. 3 years, $24 million.

11. Livan Hernandez. 3 years, $24 million.

12. Mike Cameron. 3 years, $21 million.

13. Barry Bonds. 1 year, $12 million.

14. Paul Lo Duca. 2 years, $12 million.

15. Tom Glavine. 1 year, $11 million.

16. Kerry Wood. 2 years, $10 million.

17. Yorvit Torrealba. 2 years, $10 million.

18. Luis Castillo. 2 years, $10 million.

19. Kaz Matsui. 2 years, $8 million.

20. Eric Gagne. 1 year, $6 million.

21. Todd Jones. 1 year, $6 million.
I think most people would think these are reasonable estimates, but I think we'll see that they end up on the low side of things. I think if you take comparable players to last year and tack on another 20%/year you're going to be a lot closer. I just think there's too much money available and not too many quality players.

I'm going to guess that at least 75% of both the average annual salary and total dollar amounts of Heyman's predictions are low.

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