With all the free agent CFs, you wonder where Vernon Wells would be falling after his performance this year if the Jays had let him go through to free agency?

Just a thought.

If that's what Jones and Hunter are going for then the Jays certainly overpaid for Wells, then again, I'd bet that both of those estimates are a little low...

 I expect Paul Lo Duca. to get more and Yorvit Torrealba less. 

This doesn't account for any incentive based contracts. I'd be very careful with guys like Kerry Wood and Gagne.

If that's what Jones and Hunter are going for then the Jays certainly overpaid for Wells...

Ha - $30M less for Hunter, who is a virtually identical player in every aspect of the game (Hunter. Wells.). I'd say the Jays overpaid. This contract will be the worst albatross the team has ever worn around its neck. They had better win in 08 or 09, because it won't be pretty after that.

I think Jones and Hunter will get very close to Vernon's $18m per year, if not more.  $18m was granted a year in advance of free agency and includes a discount for the security (which Wells certainly needed).  If an agent can't compare Jones or Hunter favourably to Vernon, then they aren't doing their job very well.  They may not get seven years though since they are two and three years older than Vernon.

I agree with Pistol. There's a lot of money out there in baseball and I don't think Heyman is accounting for all of it. These are going to look low in couple of months.

For example, if the rumours are right the Yankees are prepared to offer Lowell $70 million over 5 years. I don't see Rowand signing for less than 5 years and his AAV shold be over $14 million. I don't see why Hunter is going to get less AAV than Jones when, if you believe a recent exec poll on ESPN, 14 out of 15 of those surveyed would prefer Hunter.

That is brutal logic jackson.  They'll get what the market dictates with 30 teams bidding for their services.  If they start calling teams saying that they're looking for a Vernon Wells contract at 18 million per season, and it should only go up from there, they might find themselves without dance partners to begin the season next year.

There is simply no way the market can bare 3!! CFs this off season signing for that kind of money.  Aaron Rowand for example has a career OPS of 805 vs. Wells @ 809.  You forgot him as a comparable.  Don't forget Mike Cameron clocking in at around 786 career - would be even higher if his numbers weren't Petco deflated.

Baseball, like it's nearest business model - the Drug Trade, is floating on money. Be they Greenbacks or Loonies there's whole piles of them in owners vaults around the game. And players; like Gold, Houses, Mortgage Company Stocks or Breeding Lamas are only worth what some stupid a**  (hereafter SA's) will pay them.

Fortunately, for this years flock of FA's there are lots of SA's about.

I see three KEY FA's; AROD, Posada and the sleeper - Kerry Wood. I see AROD getting 10/300 he'll turn 42 in August of the last year of that contract! I see Posada getting OVERPAID by the Yanks because they have NO CHOICE and both Posada and the Yanks know it. I see Posada getting 4 years 60 large. Kerry Woods WAS an amazing wunderkid but injuries have sliced and diced him something awful. HOWEVER, some GM is going to remember what could have been, will see how far he's climbed back, and will offer him a 4 year contract. Year one 7 million, year two 8 million and two TEAM option years of 10 million each. He'll be entering the 4th year at just 34.  He just might bite.

That is brutal logic jackson.

Tone down the rhetoric and introduce some respect into your responses, kid.  We'll see what happens, but there are at least three major markets interested in Andruw Jones - NYY, Washington and Los Angeles.  Big free agents set the market and the rest of the money will be divided up amongst the remains.  And there's plenty of money to go around.

What makes you think salaries are going down this offseason?  Do you know something about league revenues that the rest of us don't?

Tone down the rhetoric and introduce some respect into your responses, kid.

And I say that with love and affection abound.

Oh the delicious Irony.

Who said anything about Salaries going down?  I'm saying that the league cannot support salaries at that rate.  Can you imagine 6 CFs making 17+ million averaging the life of their contracts?  (Beltran, Ichiro, Jones, Wells, Rowand, Hunter).  And of course, Sizemore on his next contract.  Name the other positions where salaries are that high.  Pick the top 6 at ANY position or Pitcher and see if #6 is at 17 million?  The only positions that get close are Corner OFs (because there are x2 of them) and Starting Pitchers, (Drew draws in at 14.4 million as the 6th highest paid Corner OF), and Pedro at just a hair over 14 million (which was a backloaded 13 per yr avg if I remember correctly).

Can you imagine 6 CFs making 17+ million averaging the life of their contracts?  (Beltran, Ichiro, Jones, Wells, Rowand, Hunter).  And of course, Sizemore on his next contract.

Why not,  centre field is a premium defensive position, some even have it as the most difficult position to find a premium defender and hitter for, so why not pay them the top bucks.

I'm confused, are you saying centre fielders are not worth what the top ones are paid, or are you saying there's not enough revenue out there to support their salaries? Either way I think your wrong.

Those who think revenues or salaries will go down should read this article on CNN Money.  Here are some relevant quotes:

"Baseball's sales have increased 50 percent from 2004 and have doubled since 2000"

"DuPuy told me the level of growth this year surprised even him and Commissioner Bud Selig"

"We saw about a half-billion (dollars of sales) from sources that really didn't exist 10 years ago."

"Baseball can afford it. And it's finally not afraid to admit that"

Please read the article and then explain why salaries are going down.  Remember rosters are not increasing, they stay at 25, so when payroll budgets go up every player shares in the increase, especially those with negotiating power.

Of course this also makes the gap between AAA and major league pay even greater, thereby increasing the incentive to cheat your way to the big leagues.

Can you imagine 6 CFs making 17+ million averaging the life of their contracts?  (Beltran, Ichiro, Jones, Wells, Rowand, Hunter).  And of course, Sizemore on his next contract.

It's not the center field position per say. A gold glove candidate who can bat in 100  runs is valuable at any position.

I don't see how Sizemore could jump  from making $1m a year to $17m. Maybe in 2012.  As usual, what's truly shocking is how much the Yankees are paying Johnny Damon to be their 4th outfielder.

If Kaz Matsui (.288 AVG .405 SLG .342 OBP SB/CS 32/4) is available for $8 million, the Jays should sign him to play 2B and move Hill to Short. There's your leadoff guy right there, and the overall defense declines slightly but the sucking offensive void at short disappears. Compare these numbers to Macdonald, and there is none. Kaz also boasts a .992 fielding percentage.

Heck, for all that he's worth $9 million over 2 years, or $25 over 3. It's not like we have a ton of options, and if Glaus goes down then fielding Matsui, MacDonald, Hill on the left side sure beats Hill, Macdonald, Adams on a team that has delusions of contention.

Tadahito Iguchi could also be an excellent fit - maybe a better one. Aside from the 1.000 fielding percentage, he brings a .304 AVG and .361 OBP to the party. The average is a jump, but the OBP is pretty consistent and that's what this team needs. I'm going to treat the .442 SLG as a bit of an aberration given limited playing time of 45 games, but it's not a huge one if you look at the full-season White Sox numbers and the limited playing time will drive down his value if bucks are a concern for some reason. SB/CS is only 6/1, and that plus his triples history says "average speed." But I like his consistent doubles percentages, which this team needs.

The Rockies can be expected to work hard at bringing Kaz back, but Philly sees Iguchi as a backup and that means they won't make the same kinds of offers. I'd push hard on both of these fronts as the Jays, and even overpay a little. Thoughts?

With all the free agent CFs, you wonder where Vernon Wells would be falling after his performance this year if the Jays had let him go through to free agency?

I think I'd still rather have Wells over the other available CF free agents.  Most people get too caught up in a player's most recent season.

Well WR, we'll see when my point is proven.  All 3 of those available CFs (Rowand, Hunter, Jones) will NOT sign for a yearly average of 18+ and you can take that to the bank.  Defensive premium position?  Maybe.  But consider the fact that we have 3 CFs and we couldn't get someone to bite on Johnson coming off of a Gary Matthews jr type performance year last season.

If they do, I'll be more than happy to eat my words and praise JP for getting fair or below market value for Vernon Wells' Contract.  But they wont, and I doubt I'll be singing any hymns.

Not sure what the Matsui attraction is. He's a 32-year old with a lifetime OBP of .325, and even that's partly inflated due to Coors. I won't even ask about the extra $16M you are proposing for his age 34 season.

Iguchi has certainly been a better player than Matsui, but he'll be 33 soon.

If Hill is going to be moved off of second base, it had better be for a much better reason than either of these two.

It's not the center field position per say. A gold glove candidate who can bat in 100  runs is valuable at any position.

Well, the Zone/RZR ratings for this year are telling a different story.  Wells' might be considering a move to the corner OF position in the near future at this rate.  I know they're defensive "stats" but they do show some consistant decline over the last few years.

Link

Oh and Pistol - Put a gun to my head and make me choose, It would be Andr'u'w Jones as my favorite followed by Vernon Wells, all things being equal.  But then again, CF would have been my last priority going into this off season, because you could maximize offensive production by signing a strong corner OF and just moving Rios of CF.  For less money too.

All 3 of those available CFs (Rowand, Hunter, Jones) will NOT sign for a yearly average of 18+ and you can take that to the bank.

Take this to the bank. These 3 guys will all sign for about 15 million/year and its not just me saying this ( refer to post 33).

Well, the Zone/RZR ratings for this year are telling a different story

As Pistol says many  fans ( including me at times ) tend to put too much worth into what happens in the immediate past. Given his shoulder injury I'd give Wells a mulligan regarding both his  offence and defence in 2007. Using regressed zone data from the past  3 years from both major data collectors which is the proper way to analyze defence, we find these results.  Wells is still solid, note that he puts a "premium" on being able to play centre by having 2 different defensive columns.

Interesting ratings Wildrose. They put Rios in CF as a -4, +4 in RF/LF. Wells is listed as +6 in CF and +12 at a corner. So, Wells CF and Rios RF is +10 vs Rios CF Wells RF at +8. Based on those ratings the current setup is best.

Ratings for other Jays - LF/RF, CF
(I assume these are full season estimates)
Reed Johnson +6 -2
Matt Stairs -7 -19 (ugh)
Adam Lind +1 -9
JF Griffen -1 -11
Ryan Roberts -7 -20

So, Johnson is a decent backup, Stairs should be a DH, and Lind is good at a corner. Nothing shocking there.

Speaking of free agents...

Baseball America has a list of who they think are the best minor league free agents in an effort to build a team to compete with the basement teams in baseball.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=648

The catcher position has a guy named Mark Johnson who looks ideal for AAA - hits left, very patient, has the ability to play first base, was 320/440/410 in AAA last year.

JJ Furmaniak is a SS who hit 292/373/450 so I'd give him a AAA contract and look see in spring if his defense is at all decent.

Tim Raines Jr I'd sign as an outfielder just due to family history, although a 333/368/519 line with 21 SB doesn't hurt.

For the pen Winston Abreu look tempting with 82 K in 52 IP although it comes with 20 BB (not great, not bad). Randy Choate should get a major league contract somewhere being a leftie and getting 61 K in 63 IP (16 BB, 3 HR)

Minor league free agents must be fun for GM's to dig through. Cheap to sign, easy to keep in AAA. Lots of crap but a few diamonds are out there each year. Trick is to find those diamonds.

SI recently posted a photo gallery feature of the 10 best (in terms of bang for the buck) contracts in baseball (modern) history.

And they show ol' Roger coming in with a two-year $17-million contract that made it "hard to ask for anything more".

How about the other year on the contract for $8 million and the club option for 2000 for another $8 million?

The contract was 3 years/$24.75M (1997-99), plus $8.1M 2000 club option. 

I think the Jays would be interested in those guys if for no other reason than to make Syracuse a better team for 2008.  They've never seemed to be able to get their AAA team to win.

It's certainly worth rolling the dice on these guys but taking into account their age and experience is very important.  Let's not forget that this is a level where Chad Mottola put up MVPish numbers before.  But for positions like catcher and shortstop, even guys with very modest production can be big pluses as depth for the big team.

The Jays already have a handful of infielders they've claimed on waivers and through other channels...I suppose a minor league free agent also wouldn't hurt but you're running out of space to place all of these guys.

As I recall, the Jays ended up trading the super-ace Clemens to the Yankees (of all teams) in return for David Wells and Homer Bush.  There might have been some additional minor piece or two.  But as decent a pitcher as Wells was, that's a pretty horrible return for a back to back Cy Young winner traded within your own division no?  I mean yikes.

I suppose it's a ton better than David Cone for Marty Janzen and trading down from Green to Mondesi and yet still paying a relative fortune.  But man...Ash did have some great assets to offer up and didn't get all that much back to help the long term fortunes of the team.

To me it sounds like a great idea I do think they'd both be a great fit (Kaz Matsui or Tad Iguchi) but i don't see them moving Hill back to short all over again. What about keeping Hill there and going after David Eckstein he's only 32 and can fit the leadoff spot especially when I really want to see Lind in left over johnson. Of course he wouldn't be the perfect fit but for what we got to go after he is this year.

At the time there were rumours that Clemens would be traded to Texas for a package of A1 prospects but Ash had no interest as he felt prospects were useless after the Cone-Janzen trade. Kind of a shame, but I don't know who we'd have got from Texas back then.

Checking B-R for 1998 Texas I see (age-name)...
23-Fernando Tatis 3B regular, amazing year in '99 but attitude issues killed his career by 28.
23-Rob Sasser PH, never played again
plus 3 young pitchers who never did anything.

Ruben Mateo came up the next year at age 21 and I think he was a key part of any potential trade. He flamed out at 250/303/386 lifetime.

There really wasn't much there from the looks of it so trading with Texas really wouldn't have made sense. Wells/Bush was a lot better than Mateo/whoever in hindsight.

Houston was the other place they thought of trading him (Clemens wanted NY or a Texas team only).
23 - Richard Hidalgo had two great years and the rest were blech
23 - Russ Johnson had a couple of decent UT years
26 - John Halama was just starting out
22 - Scott Elarton would be a decent 5th starter

In '99 the following showed up thus were around for a potential Clemens trade...
23 - Lance Berkman dang, he would've been nice
22 - Wade Miller was a solid starter from 01-04

Hmmm... Houston for Berkman and Miller would've been plenty good enough. No idea if either were available for Clemens but one would think Houston would've taken Clemens for them as they were in the midst of a playoff run (102, 97 win seasons in 98/99) and just lost Randy Johnson as a free agent after '98.

This does show how much of a crapshoot rookies can be though as I am sure people were 100% positive that Mateo would be a superstar. Tatis was also viewed that way iirc.

Didn't see where else to put this threat-wise:  the 2008 tentative home schedule is out, although weirdly, it doesn't list the road opponents yet that I can find.  As per usual lately, they Jays are on the road on Canada Day. They get the Cubs, Reds, and Braves at home in interleague...has the format changed, or is the Braves series just to fill out the unevenness in the leagues? The Jays have three of their longest road trips over with by early June (10, 10, and 11 day trips), and all the AL West teams are done visiting by early June as well. Given the road struggles last year (34-47), the schedule should allow us to see if that was a one year fluke or some strange failing of the players and coaches pretty early on.

Another note about Clemens: if I remember correctly, he was the highest paid pitcher in baseball when he signed the contract and second in salary to Bonds.

By the time he wanted out of Toronto after the 98 season, it looked like he could command twice that money on the free agent market and many players had surpassed his salary (I believe he was no longer in the top 10 -- maybe just within top 20).

And if anyone wants a further walk down memory lane, here's a NY Times article about baseball intending to fine their no.2 official about the whole Clemens mess, featuring some more detail about the "gentleman's agreement" than I remember hearing about back then:

Two officials said yesterday that the agreement covers five points. One gives Clemens the right to request a trade; another gives him the right to approve the team to which he would be traded. A third gives him the right to request a trade to the Houston Astros after any season during the four-year contract.

For the longest time, I wondered whether Clemens really wanted to move because he wasn't comfortable with his family here as he would like to be in Texas, or if he saw that the money pit was running dry here and he needed to go where men flush with cash would better take care of him. And I still believe that he used the family excuse to leverage his desire for better money. And that the Boss slipped him untold millions to accept the move to New York.

Hmmm... Houston for Berkman and Miller would've been plenty good enough. No idea if either were available for Clemens but one would think Houston would've taken Clemens for them as they were in the midst of a playoff run (102, 97 win seasons in 98/99) and just lost Randy Johnson as a free agent after '98.

As I recall, Mike Hampton was rumored to be the central player coming to the Jays from Houston.  I wasn't a big Mike Hampton fan at the time, but I'd have taken him over what the Jays got from the Yankees.

That would be a very nice home schedule if it stayed that way. Two things I notice of interest:

1. Every homestand includes at least two series, often more. Not a single homestand is one and done, which happened twice this year, against Texas at the end of April and Cleveland in July. And every month includes four or five home series, unlike the paltry three in July this past season.
2. There is one home series against each division rival in the first three months, except NYY, and two home series against each division rival (3 vs.NYY) in the final three months.
   

natch, there's another lone home series spanning August-September this season.

Browsing SI again, I see an article about the trades that made champions at little cost to the victors in the three major sports.

The only listing for baseball would be the Jays trade of Cone to the Yankees. And not only does the writer misspell Janzen, but he says of the Jays, "None of the pitchers they acquired would play in the majors. "  Well, Mrs. Janzen would like everyone to know that her boy appeared in 27 major league games.

Yet the Jays didn't give up much more to acquire Cone from the Royals a few months prior to trading him. The reason I recall he was being dumped around was that he was to receive the princely sum of $8 million that season, and the Jays acquired him with the idea that he would help put them back into contention that year. Otherwise, it was seen as a ridiculous sum of money to have in the books and the Royals certainly couldn't afford that luxury. Come July of 95, the Jays saw the writing on the wall and it said something like "This ship is sinking." (Juan Guzman and Danny Darwin games were a nightmare; Duane Ward is plowed through and by end of June would clearly never return to form) So they were a desperate seller, trying to unload the most expensive pitcher in baseball, iirc. Although the contract would expire at the end of the season, the market was a different beast then, full of guys counting pennies and worries post-lockout.

And of course the SI writer slips in another honorable mention of the Clemens trade for good measure.