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Nate Pearson surrendered five runs today and couldn't complete five innings. In consecutive "scheduled for five inning" starts, he has given up seven hits. This is not the Pearson we signed up for! We don't know what Pearson is working on, whether he is trialing some new grips, or approaches, and therefore it's hard to pass judgement on what is going on. I am confident he will return to normal results in short order. Pearson is not he only player to panic over. Kevin Smith is hitting .170, that is made up of .200 in April and .140 in May. He struck out 25 times in April and 31 times in May. Whatever he is trying doesn't seem to be working. At some point the Jays might have to look at a drop down to Dunedin to get his confidence back.

On the field, the top two teams lost easily although Forrest Wall and Riley Adams just keep hitting. Dunedin and Lansing won easily, Griffin Conine had a big day including two home runs. Another high pick, Logan Warmoth also hit well.

Syracuse 9 Buffalo 2

Ryan Feierabend is back from Toronto and reportedly under orders to throw the knuckleball more. That didn't work too well on Thursday, he threw 69 pitches, just 37 for strikes. In total he was charged with six runs on six hits and four walks. William Ouelette, who has been pitching well, gave up three runs.

The Bisons had only six hits, Pat Cantwell had two. Anthony Alford and Socrates Brito had a hit each to keep their hottish runs going. Teoscar Hernandez and Billy McKinney were both oh-fer as they haven't found their hits in AAA yet.

New Hampshire 1 Harrisburg 5

Nate Pearson was not his fearless self, he was charged with five runs and didn't complete his five innings. On the opposite side, Willy Ortiz, who entered the game with a 7.71 ERA, pitched 3.1 shutout innings with just one hit allowed.

Two players have been delivering most of the hits for NH over the last week, Forrest Wall and Riley Adams. Wall was 3-4 and has an 11 game hitting streak. In six of those eleven games he has had multiple hits. He is now hitting over .300 and is controlling the strikezone well. He just doesn't have much power, just three home runs through a third of the season. Adams also had three hits and he has a nine game hitting streak, with five multiple hit games. Adams too has moved his BA over .300. Adams doesn't walk much, and strikes out around 40% of the time in AA, but he is doing well for a 22 year old. His strike zone control was better in Dunedin so he does have the ability to improve that aspect. Nash Knight had a double and a triple and drove in the only run.

Tampa 4 Dunedin 12

Dunedin scored in each of the first six innings and went on to score 12 runs on 16 hits. Logan Warmoth had the three hardest parts of the cycle, he just couldn't get the single. He scored three and drove in two. Cal Stevenson keeps moving up his average, he was 3-5. His batting average for May is over .300 and his May OPS is over 800. Ronny Brito who came over in the Russell Martin trade with Andrew Sopko was 2-4.

Justin Dillon shut out the Yankees over five innings. Brito, who played third base, made two errors leading to three unearned runs.

Lansing 9 Dayton 4

Griffin Conine played his second game of the season and went 4-5 with two home runs and two doubles. Conine, a left handed hitter, hit his doubles and home runs to left field. Reggie Pruitt had three hits. Ryan Gold had two hits, one a home run, and three RBI. Gabriel Moreno was hit in the helmet by a pitch and had to leave the game.

Troy Watson had his best start of the season, five innings, two unearned runs. Otto Lopez made two more errors at short, thats 14 for him so far. Josh Hiatt followed with three shutout innings.

3 Stars

3rd star: Cal Stevenson

2nd star: Logan Warmoth

1st star: Griffin Conine


Panic Over Pearson | 87 comments | Create New Account
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Kelekin - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#374692) #
Thanks for clarifying what happened to Moreno.
Mike Green - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#374698) #
Thinking about Cal Stevenson, I wondered where Brett Gardner was at the same age.  It turns out that he was in the FSL with Tampa for the first half of his age 22 season (Gardner is born in August and Stevenson in September so the comparison is close).  Gardner hit no home runs, walked and struck out a little more than Stevenson, but went .323/.433/.418 courtesy of a .414 BABIP before a promotion to the Eastern League in mid-season.  He hit .272/.352/.315 there. 

Gardner made it to the Show at the end of his age 24 season, mastering double A and triple A in his second go-round on each occasion. 

Nigel - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#374702) #
I've been a big fan of Adams since I first saw him in Vancouver, so I'm not surprised at his development. However, a word of caution, I do think that strike zone control is the key issue with him, so a significant deterioration of that at NH (over the longer term) would be a major red flag for me.
PeterG - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#374705) #
An article just posted in MLBTR suggests that Jays will be aggressively marketing pitchers and soon. Says there is no point in waiting till deadline and that talks should heat up after draft. Stroman, Sanchez and Giles are mentioned as the pitchers they will market aggressively.
#2JBrumfield - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#374706) #
BA's latest mock draft (8.0) has the Blue Jays taking shortstop Bryson Stott from UNLV but have been tied to Jackson Rutledge, Corbin Carroll, Zack Thompson and UNC Wilmington shortstop Greg Jones.
PeterG - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#374707) #
Mock's are all over the place after #6. BA, and Fangraphs all have different players going or available at 11. Likely we will not know until the pick is actually made on Monday night.
greenfrog - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#374708) #
The Jays can aggressively market all they want; the return for those players will depend on what teams are willing to give up. Some teams may prefer to wait until late July, especially now that Atkins has demonstrated a willingness to lower his asking price if teams wait long enough (Happ trade).
PeterG - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#374709) #
That only makes sense if the player in question has a regression in performance as was the case with Happ last July. Teams won't be able to wait as long as they did previously as there is no longer any backup trade period in August if it does not get done in July.
greenfrog - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#374710) #
It was still Atkinsís choice to lower his asking price for Happ. We donít know whether Cashman would have walked away from the poker table. In retrospect, it probably would have been better to keep Happ and offer him a QO (or let him walk), the better to build Atkinsís reputation as a firm negotiator who wonít bend under pressure.
Mike Green - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#374711) #
Greg Jones is probably going to be making the transition to centerfield, and, hopefully soon.  As his namesake Adam Jones did a long time ago, and Billy Hamilton did a few years after that.  He strikes out a lot, without having big time power (yet). Watching video, it's easy to see why.  He's about halfway between Hamilton and Jones in both power and speed, so it's hard to know which way he will go to try to overcome his contact issues.   
lexomatic - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#374712) #
I'm less concerned than you, greenfrog. When rebuilding it's better to get a crapshoot than nothing. And re-signing is no guarantee when the player knows you're going to he bad/they are likely to be traded mid-season. No guarantee of better performance or increased marketability, and sometimes the roster spot is worth more for testing reclamation projects.If someone lowballs this time and it's not enough they can walk away.

Mike Green - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#374713) #
Joey Murray starts tonight for Dunedin.  He's succeeded everywhere so far with a good curveball, and a high-spin rate 88-91 mph fastball which he throws up in the zone quite a bit.  He also apparently has a good idea what he's doing out there.  He'll probably need to work on his change, like Marco Estrada did. 
hypobole - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#374714) #
Is Murray the pitcher with the invisi-ball label when drafted??
Shoeless Joe - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#374715) #
I think I disagree with Mocks being all over the place, the latest BA mock and the fangrapghs mocks are pretty similar. Brent Baty to Texas at 8 seems to be a thing now.

The latest mock from BA has the Jays taking Bryson Sott, the biggest departure from what we have been hearing is that they are interested in Greg Jones. Further to that MLB pipeline had this to say about Jones today:

"Amid a lot of recent buzz that UNC Wilmington shortstop Greg Jones could play himself into the first round, he may be solidifying a spot in the first 34 picks with his performance at the Colonial Athletic Association tournament."
ramone - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#374716) #
A bit of interesting Jays draft info in this mock:

"iíve been lucky enough to see many of his games as well as his insane summer at the bigger events. Carroll always performs and there are always scouts present. In particular, Iíve seen Blue Jays scouts at every single Carroll game iíve been to this year. While Stott, Thompson and Rutledge appear to be options here; I think the Blue Jays brass are in love with Carroll"
hypobole - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#374717) #
"it probably would have been better to keep Happ and offer him a QO (or let him walk), the better to build Atkinsís reputation as a firm negotiator who wonít bend under pressure."

Well apparently Atkins did some firm negotiations when he offered up Stroman over the winter, because reports were no team was willing to meet his asking price.

The general consensus was that the Happ trade was fair value. However as Dan Zips pointed out, the return was more a quick turnaround move than getting higher ceiling lottery tickets for a lengthy rebuild move.
Mike Green - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#374718) #
Yep, hypobole.  High spin rate, slow, four-seamers are "invisiballs".  Presumably, it just means that to hit them, your brain has to unlearn what it has been trained to expect.   Murray has very high pop-up rates and K rates....
scottt - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#374719) #
The Athletics has an article about the Marlins being a 102 Win teams by bWAR estimates had they kept their prospects instead of trading them, including Luis Castillo in a package for Cashner, German Domingo in a package for Phelps  and Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney.

lexomatic - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#374720) #
So I've been wondering what's up with Janssen this year. A quick search seems to suggest he`s earned his poor offensive numbers.
However:-He`s hitting the ball harder this year than last-He`s reversed his GB/FB % from last year, to double GB% from last year, but more like 2017.
-Not pulling the ball as much.

Has anyone that looks at video seriously noticed anything different about his approach that would suggest the changed results?
scottt - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#374721) #
A year and a half of Stroman is worth a lot more than 2 months of Happ.
The team trading for him will have to ability to offer him a QO.
Same is true for Giles.

Shoeless Joe - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#374722) #
I think Jansen's struggles this year stems from his K%. He has below average power and in the minors he always showed much better plate discipline and contact ability.
scottt - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#374723) #
I haven't really be paying attention.
He's hitting more ground balls and pulling less. Maybe they're pitching him away?

I did notice he gets sore hands from time to time and wears batting gloves which I don't think he did last year.

scottt - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#374724) #
It seems he did most of the damage last year against sliders and he's seeing half as many sliders and more fastballs and curveballs this year.

He's still hitting lefties.

Gerry - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#374725) #

If you are a draft junkie, you need to read this article.

Here is an interesting excerpt:

With one of the more selective prospects making proactive choices in his best interest, weíre also hearing about savvy advisers helping prospects set signability differently. If an adviser represents a players who is receiving interest from those organizations deemed to be the best at hitting development and those deemed to be the worst, we know of a few prospects who are quoting different bonus demands to different clubs to maximize their draft day outcome.

Gerry - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#374728) #
Forrest Wall and Riley Adams are each 2-2 so far tonight.
scottt - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#374729) #
Yeah, pretty interesting.
lexomatic - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#374730) #
I forgot about the strikeouts, SJ.There is an interesting article from Davidi on May 9th but I cant paste from my phone

scottt - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#374731) #
Smoak was drafted from South Carolina, Sogard from Arizona State, Davis from Central Arkansas and Maile from Kentucky. All the Biggio siblings went to Notre Dame.

Jansen, Drury, Grichuk, McKinney and Tellez signed out of high school.

It's hard to know exactly what you're getting from a high school kid and there's a lot of work in retraining the college ones. Still, I'm pretty sure Smoak was never a groundball hitter.

hypobole - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#374732) #
Gerry, that FG article you posted has quite a bit of food for thought. Wonder what players and their "advisors" think of the Jays? Hope a few posters here don't go on social media. :)

I know Bo gladly signed because he liked the assurance we weren't going to change his swing. On the pitching side (which has nothing to do with the article, I know) Winckowski liked our pitching development.

I'm guessing the Dodgers would be on the low end of bonus demands. Seattle under Jack Z was where prospects went to die, not sure which teams are the poor developers now.
Kelekin - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#374733) #
Looking at that new BA Mock, it's hard to understand why the Jays are believed to love Stott. I do admit, J.P. Ricciardi would've picked him 9 times out of 10 though.
hypobole - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#374736) #
Where does Stott rank on your draft board?
lexomatic - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#374737) #
Shoeless Joe - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#374738) #
Gerry that was a fantastic article, thanks for sharing. I wonder if a prospect like Addison Barger is the kind of prospect who in years prior would go to college but instead went the pro development route with the Jays.

I wonder if Griffin Conine ends up being one of the unrefined college bats who the Jays tried to rework during his suspension. He has been mashing in his first couple of games at a level too easy for him.

Stottís falling on most other draft boards and I think he is a mid to late first rounder, as he lacks projection and his cape cod numbers scare me.

On a final note Forrest Walls underlying numbers have really improved this year and it might be soon time to play prospect or not with him.
Kelekin - Friday, May 31 2019 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#374753) #
Hypobole - late 1st for me. He strikes me as a lot closer to a Warmoth than a Groshans, and any player who strikes out more in their draft year than any other year is also unimpressive.

If the Jays need "impact" players, I just don't see it.
Gerry - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#374759) #
DSL starts today.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#374761) #
Gerry do you know if Orelvis is on the DSL roster or did he make it stateside?
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#374763) #
Just looking at the listed roster online for the DSL, and it seems that La Tortuga's cousin Willfrann Astudillo is one the team.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#374764) #
Keith Law reports in his newsletter that the 2020 draft class is excellent and far superior to the 2019 one. Unfortunate incentive to race to the bottom. As if there isn't enough of that already.
Gerry - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#374765) #
I dont have any roster information, they are still fluid.
PeterG - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#374766) #
hypobole - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#374767) #
Andrew: Difference between Nate Pearson his draft year and Jackson Rutledge this year?
Keith Law: Pearson was (is) a better athlete with a better delivery, I think. Rutledge is fortunate to come out in a way weaker draft and probably benefits from how good Pearsonís been.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#374769) #
This is a rare occurance where I kind of agree with Law.
bpoz - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#374774) #
Shapiro is "like" a corporate baseball man. An executive. Sorry I cannot explain more, this is a feeling.

That kind of a person should be playing "strategic plans". The Jays are making no/little attempt to do better. Brito and Hansen were kind of the worst additions. So we should get a better pick next year when the draft class is stronger. No 7 ?

This years top protected picks can be "not signed" which allows for more picks and money for 2020. It is definitely a type of strategy. Also trade for picks that are tradable. Competitive balance round picks??
scottt - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#374782) #
2018 was supposed to be the great year for free agency and in the end, it wasn't all that.
One third of the season in, Harper has been worth 1 WAR and Machado 1.3.

Shoeless Joe - Saturday, June 01 2019 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#374785) #
The latest BA mock has Greg Jones up to #14 with the Phillies and he is certainly the biggest late riser at this point. I am unsure on his overall as a prospect though. He did not hit with wood bats in the cape cod league and his 80 grade speed would play up in a weaker college conference.
bpoz - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#374807) #
Our DSL team has a huge roster 38 players. They all cannot be playing. Of course that is a hot country so year round baseball is probably how they are developing.

I was very impressed with some of the position players from last years team. They should be in GCL and Bluefield.

Extended ST should be ending in about 3 weeks. G Moreno and R Brito have done well so far in Lansing and Dunedin.

With a lot of quantity I expect a few pleasant surprises.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#374811) #
That size for the DSL team is standard and will remain pretty static for the year. The key latin players are already in Florida and will be sprinkled throughout the three short-season teams as needed after the draft.

Alexis Carmona
Ronald Govea
Santos Moreno
Lazaro Estrada
Adrian Hernandez
Christian Reyes
Junior Guzman
William Gonzalez
Erick Teran
William Gaston
Rainer Nunez
Orelvis Martinez
Jose Zepeda
Alberto Rodriguez
Jhon Solarte
Erickvi Celedonio
Geyber Jimenez
bpoz - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#374816) #
Thanks Marc Hulet.
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#374822) #
Yeah, looking at the DSL roster yesterday, my 1st thought was a kid either shows enough to go stateside by the following season, or he finds a new line of work. Almost no one repeating on the DSL team this year.
bpoz - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#374828) #
hypobole I would be interested in your 2nd and 3rd thoughts on the DSL roster. Please know that I am not being insulting. I enjoy your posts and wanted to hear more.

L De los Santos and O Lopez signed and played in the DSL. Sort of normal progress. G Moreno signed and played 1 year in the DSL but took off next year in the US. A Kirk did not play in the DSL and had 2 ABs in the GCL. Injuries to other players allowed him to Catch rather than DH last year. He is rising V fast.

Honestly I usually see failure when these players get here. But now we are getting a few successes. I am really hoping that 5 or 6 of the players listed by Marc Hulet do very well here.
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#374832) #
bpoz, here are 2 more thoughts:

The Jays should field a 2nd DSL team, like half of MLB does. It's cheap in relative terms, and even if it yields 1 good major leaguer, it will be worth it.

I hope the Jays are scouting the DSL for trade acquisitions. Some teams don't - the Mets were one (maybe still are) and they never traded for DSL kids because they didn't have good info.
hypobole - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#374836) #
Lucky Lugnuts facing TB's affiliate in a DH today. Got Liberatore in the 1st game, now facing Baz in the 2nd. As one could guess it's not gone well for our side.
bpoz - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#374839) #
Thanks hypobole. Good thoughts. I agree with you.
dan gordon - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#374842) #
Another strong game for Wall today - his OPS is almost up to .900. Murphy pitched another very good game.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#374849) #
Forrest Wall is this year's Harold Ramierez, in that you're not really sure if he is a prospect or not and he walks at the end of the year if you don't add him to the 40-man.
Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#374853) #
Are we sure that Wander Franco is 18?  He's a switch-hitting shortstop who is hitting like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or a little better, in the Midwest League.  If the age is right, he's 7 months younger than Mike Trout was when he was in the Midwest League, and with better W/K and power numbers but without the great speed. 

I'll say this.  The ball jumps off his bat.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#374854) #
Draft Notes:

-BA thinks the top 6 are lock and deal cutting starts at 8-12
-BA and MLB Pipeline thinks Jays are in on arms like Rutledge and Manoah, and both mocks have Rutledge going to Braves and Manoah to Jays
-Bryson Stott seems to be slipping on most mocks from top 10 to mid first range
-Greg Jones continues to rise
jerjapan - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#374855) #
Shoeless, Ramirez is a good comp for Wall in pragmatic terms, but Wall can play CF.  Given the state of our OF, perhaps the FO will be less cavalier with OF prospects next offseason. 

FWIW, Ramirez now has 0.8 fWAR for Miami, while our best OF is Gurriel at 0.3 fWAR. 

When considering the opportunity cost of adding an Elvis Luciano or Jacob Waguespack to the 40 man roster, you have to consider the type of players lost - Smith Jr, Bergen, Ramirez - and for all our activity at the margins of the 40 man, I see no overall signs of progress. 

hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#374856) #
Bergen is at 0 fWAR and currently injured.

Smith jr has come back to earth - he's down to 94 wRC+ and worth 0 fWAR because he's one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball.

Not sure I'm seeing any loss on these 2.

Ramirez really looks like he can hit, though. Defensively??? UZR likes him so far. DRS has him -2 in CF, +1 in LF. Statcast has him -3 combined.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#374857) #
ramirez will be scrubilicious again when that .436 babip comes down to normal.

they're all scrubs.
Mike Green - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#374858) #
No kidding, UO.  Ramirez has a .436 BABIP with a 16.1% LD rate and a 22.2% pop-up rate.  That will not hold. 
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#374859) #
I assumed Dwight Smith Jr. had come back down to earth after the daily updates on him stopped in the other threads, as with what happened with Bergen.
jerjapan - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#374860) #
would you guys prefer Ramirez to Waguespack, or Smith Jr. to Luciano?  I would.  I am under no illusions as to how good these guys are, but there is value to a hot hand in terms of fan enjoyment.  There is (marginal) value to a 0 fWAR reliever with options and some limited upside - to me, more value than say Hudson or Guerra.

I have no real problem with losing marginal talent, in the rule V, to waiver claims, whatever, but I object to acquiring a bunch of it at the trade deadline or in the rule v, creating a roster 'crunch' of sorts, and thereby negating whatever marginal improvements you made with all your trade deadline moves.  The whole MO of this front office is marginal improvements and the long game - I'd like to see them actually start showing improvement with this approach.  Woodman - Diaz - Thornton seems to be the one HR thus far. at this point, Wall seems to be the best prospect acquired at the 2018 deadline.
hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#374861) #
As for Wall, this is a comment from last year:

"The transition to the outfield is a work in progress, and his routes and reads off the bat donít look like they will play at the position"

To be fair, he'd only played 170 innings in CF prior to last season - less than 20 games. No idea how much improvement he's shown this year.

hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#374862) #
I definitely prefer Luciano to any of those.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#374863) #
not sure i'd call thornton a HR, unfortunately.

Last 5: 4.9ip/gs, 5.18era, 5.45fip, 4.82xfip
Last 10: 4.9ip/gs, 5.14era, 5.15fip, 4.75xfip

that's really not starter level performance.
bpoz - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#374864) #
I keep hearing that F Wall has a very weak arm due to a bad injury. Will that weak arm allow him to play CF? As a LF he does not have enough power.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#374865) #
As for Wall, as nice as his overall line looks right now I'm not sure there's actually much there. He's posting a good walk rate, but he's depending on a very high babip to post a good but not great average, and without a lot of power either. And he's old for the level AND repeating the level, which takes some punch out of those numbers, too.

He has been playing mostly CF this year, at least, which might be a promising sign.
hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#374867) #
FG with their Morning Mock:

11. Blue Jays Ė Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia
Rutledge, Stott and Bishop have all been mentioned here as well.

They have Bishop, Stott, Rutledge, in that order, as the next 3 picks.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#374868) #

1B Guerrero (20): 33pa, 9.1b%/6.1k%, .320bip/.367avg, .333iso, 181wrc+
2B Biggio (24): 173pa, 19.7b%/16.2k%, .346bip/.307avg, .197iso, 149wrc+
IF Gurriel (25): 128pa, 2.3b%/18.0k%, .305bip/.273avg, .207iso, 94wrc+
SS Bichette (21): 59pa, 8.5b%/16.9k%, .286bip/.250avg, .154iso, 79wrc+
CF Alford (24): 184pa, 8.7b%/30.4k%, .317bip/.226avg, .152iso, 75wrc+
C McGuire (24): 143pa, 11.2b%/16.8k%, .263bip/.228avg, .122iso, 69wrc+
OF McKinney (24): 29pa, 10.3b%/13.8k%, .190bip/.192avg, .192iso, 65wrc+
3B Urena (23): 98pa, 3.1b%/30.6k%, .333bip/.247avg, .135iso, 59wrc+

SP Waguespack (25): 43.0ip, 22.3k%/10.7b%, .336bip, 5.86era, 5.61fip, 4.93xfip
SP Paulino (25): 17.2ip, 16.5k%/10.1b%, .321bip, 5.09era, 4.99fip, 5.79xfip
SP R-Foley (23): 54.1ip, 22.9k%/17.0b%, .257bip, 6.46era, 6.01fip, 5.64xfip
SP Sopko (24): 21.2p, 14.4k%/11.3b%, .219bip, 5.82era, 8.20fip, 6.87xfip

With vladdy and biggio up and bo injured, not much else going on here,.

Alford and McGuire seem to be slowly waking up at least. Nice to see, even if I only see MLB bench player in their future now.


OF Wall (23): 219pa, 12.8b%/17.8k%, .382bip/.312avg, .161iso, 162wrc+
C Adams (23): 98pa, 6.1b%/30.6k%, .436bip/.310avg, .195iso, 157wrc+
OF Lundqvist (23): 175pa, 12.6b%/28.6k%, .356bip/.243avg, .099iso, 106wrc+
IF Capra (22): 175pa, 9.7b%/14.9k%, .310bip/.263avg, .086iso, 105wrc+
OF Palacios (23): 53pa, 15.1b%/20.8k%, .250bip/.205avg, .114iso, 96wrc+
SS Smith (22): 201pa, 7.0b%/29.4k%, .237bip/.187avg, .154iso, 74wrc+

SP Pearson (22): 17.2ip, 30.1k%/6.9b%, .386bip, 4.08era, 2.46fip, 2.73xfip
SP Perez (23): 50.2ip, 23.6k%/11.8b%, .373bip, 4.97era, 4.01fip, 3.83xfip
SP Logue (23): 58.1ip, 17.3k%/5.3b%, .286bip, 3.70era, 4.14fip, 3.96xfip
SP Diaz (22): 53.1ip, 21.1k%/10.1b%, .255bip, 4.02era, 4.43fip, 4.16xfip

Wall and Adams putting up nice topline numbers but the underlying numbers are less encouraging. I'm more hopeful on Adams here because its his first shot at the level and he's a catcher. Capra is still surprisingly holding his own, while Smith's power has finally started to show up, even if he's still striking out way too much.

Pearson still looks great but a bit unlucky. And perez seems to be putting some early season bad luck behind him too. Logue and Diaz continue to look just good enough to keep an eye on.


C Kirk (20): 69pa, 11.6b%/13.0k%, .431bip/.367avg, .167iso, 193wrc+
SS Vicuna (21): 200pa, 7.5b%/20.5k%, .324bip/.257avg, .078iso, 96wrc+
OF Young (21): 170pa, 7.1b%/24.1k%, .275bip/.222avg, .131iso, 92wrc+
2B Taylor (20): 149pa, 12.1b%/28.2k%, .241bip/.168avg, .088iso, 71wrc+

SP Pearson (22): 21.0ip, 46.7k%/4.0b%, .229bip, 0.86era, 1.70fip, 1.16xfip
SP Murray (22): 25.1ip, 28.4k%/8.8b%, .274bip, 1.78era, 2.78fip, 3.24xfip
SP Castillo (20): 57.2ip, 17.7k%/4.7b%, .290bip, 2.97era, 3.25fip, 3.70xfip

Kirk continues to look awesome. And Chavez Young seems to be finally warming up. Too bad about Taylor, though.

Castillo still looks good, but Joel Murray has started off with a bang after his promotion.


OF Conine (21): 19pa, 5.3b%/26.3k%, .545bip/.444avg, .611iso, 311wrc+
C Kirk (20): 96pa, 18.8b%/8.3k%, .299bip/.299avg, .221iso, 169wrc+
3B Groshans (19): 96pa, 13.5b%/21.9k%, .433bip/.337avg, .145iso, 163wrc+
C Moreno (19): 44pa, 4.5b%/15.9k%, .290bip/.300avg, .275iso, 152wrc+
IF Lopez (20): 203pa, 9.4b%/15.3k%, .351bip/.304avg, .094iso, 120wrc+
C Gold (21): 161pa, 6.8b%/21.1k%, .309bip/.247avg, .144iso, 103wrc+
OF Contreras (20): 124pa, 7.3b%/41.1k%, .371bip/.211avg, .114iso, 68wrc+
C Danner (20): 140pa, 3.6b%/33.6k%, .185bip/.147avg, .178iso, 40wrc+

SP Winkowski (21): 55.2ip, 21.3k%/7.4b%, .319bip, 2.10era, 3.07fip, 3.53xfip

nice start by Conine, though he had a great start last year too. Moreno still looks great even with his babip back down to earth. Good hit, plenty of power, and not too many Ks. My man Otto seems to be getting his legs under him now. McGregory and Danner are still drowning, though.

Winkowski still looking good, though not spectacular.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#374869) #
If I consider all the guys in the boys now as graduated....

1. Bichette
2. Pearson
3. Kirk
4. Moreno
5. Pardinho
6. Groshans
7. Smith
8. SRF
9. Young
10. Castillo/Lopez

HM: Kloffenstein, Hiraldo, Martinez
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#374870) #
"boys" = "bigs"
hypobole - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#374872) #
Law's last mock

11. Toronto Blue Jays: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College

Probably a college arm here, counting Rutledge as one, although I hear mixed things on whether they would take Manoah. If Rutledge doesn't go here, he could really slide.

FWIW, both Law and FG have Carroll going to the Braves at 9.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#374874) #
Pre-Draft top 20:

01. Bichette
02. Pearson
03. Groshans
04. Pardinho
05. Kirk
06. Moreno
07. Murphy
08. Martinez
09. Kloffenstein
10. Hiraldo
11. Smith
12. Perez
13. Conine
14. Zeuch
15. SRF
16. Adams
17. Jimenez
18. Lopez
19. Stevenson
20. Young 

Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#374877) #
I guess I had forgotten Castillo:

Pre-Draft top 20:

01. Bichette (SS)
02. Pearson (SP)
03. Groshans (3B)
04. Pardinho (SP)
05. Kirk (C)
06. Moreno (C)
07. Murphy  (SP)
08. Martinez (3B)
09. Kloffenstein (SP)
10. Hiraldo (3B)
11. Smith (SS)
12. Perez (SP/RP)
13. Conine (RF)
14. Zeuch (SP)
15. Castillo (SP)
16. SRF(SP/RP)
17. Adams (C)
18. Jimenez (SS)
19. Lopez (UTIL)
20. Stevenson (CF)

Strengths: C, 3B
Team needs: CF, SP, OF, SS

bpoz - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#374883) #
All the FOs are now ready and have their draft boards set up.
For us we have Shapiro, Atkins and Sanders running things. I really don't know who has the most say in the picks. There is a 5 or 15 minute gap between picks, so lots of discussion time.

Day 3 and 2 I suppose will be scouts calling a player to ask if he will sign and for how much.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#374884) #
nice list, shoeless, but I still can't help but feel murphy sticks out like a sore thumb there. (at least slap the "/RP" onto his position designation!)

i also think that's a bit harsh on Smith, especially dropping him down behind guys who haven't even played yet this year. He's striking out too much still but he has a 114wrc+ in his last 20gms, and a 121wrc+ in his last 10. pretty good for an age appropriate good-glove SS in AA.
Kelekin - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#374885) #
I'll move this over if we get a draft thread, but:

I think what we take at #11 depends significantly on Atlanta's #9. They seem to be thinking the same player types.

Manoah might be slightly safer than Rutledge, but my personal favourite here, if we're drafting on talent and not "what can help us sooner", is still Corbin Carroll. He has just performed at every tournament, every level of competition he has faced. The difference between him and most center fielders drafted in the 1st round is usually they are "toolsy" and "raw". He is toolsy and expected to hit. That is absolutely something worth taking a shot on.

Also, the back of the 1st round has plenty of solid names, so it wouldn't be that bad an idea to take a shot at one of those guys if it'll be an underslot deal. There's certainly precedence from the Jays to consider going after a combination of Goss and his teammate Thompson (Matthew, not Zach). Hoese, Espino, and Malone are all solid options.

As far as other players that could fall to us, I am not really big on either Bishop or Stott. Bishop is a strikeout king, and Stott falls closer to the Warmoth scale than on the 'Russ Adams/Aaron Hill' side of things.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#374887) #
Smith was the hardest person to slot on this list. I think Kloffenstin, Orelivis and Hiraldo are at the exact same level prospect wise as talented teenagers with upside and no experience, so depending on how I viewed Smith he either goes in front or behind that group. Ultimately I moved him behind as I think as a prospect he aligns more with prospects like Perez who are working through some AA warts. I just kind of like Murphy's stuff and control.

Kelkin I think we are fully aligned on our idea of what the jays should do in the draft.
jerjapan - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#374888) #
Solid prospect lists both, although I'm a bit surprised to see Kirk and Moreno as top 6 for both you guys - they are great prospects, no doubt, but I have Kirk as top ten and Moreno in the teens.  are proximity / floor important to you guys?
Hypobole, I would take Luciano straight up over any of the AAAA OFers myself.  Problem is, you have to keep him in the bigs all year, and the 40 man after that, and I don't think he's worth the roster spot - even long term.  You don't mind having to carry a reliever with a WHIP over 2, and all for a projected future value of 35+ per Fangraphs?  Wall is at 45, as a comp. 
dan gordon - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#374891) #
Smith Jr. has been pretty bad since April 27th. In 128 PA's since then he has a line of .215/.250/.397/.647. Combine that with his terrible defense, and you don't have a major league player.

I didn't like losing Ramirez, and like it even less now. After hitting .320 with an .836 OPS last year (even better in the 2nd half), he hit .355 with a .999 OPS in AAA this year, and is now hitting .373/.417/.478/.894 with Miami. And that's with playing his home games in a terrible hitters' park. He's OPS'ing over 1.000 away from Marlins Park. Something seems to have clicked for him starting partway through last season. He's only 24. I think he's going to have a fine career.
uglyone - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#374895) #
I see that. But I wouldn't drop him down to the Perez level, though - Smith is younger, is an SS, and had a much better year last year than Perez has ever had, and Perez has been in AA much longer.

Jer - proximity matters but which guys are significantly closer that project as starting caliber?
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#374897) #
I agree that Smith is a much greater prospect than Perez, and the drop off from #11 to #12 however is large how I kind of lined it up. I guess just generally Smith has moved to hopeful prospect and not dominant top prospect half way through the year in my eyes.

As for Kirk/Moreno, I like prospects who make contact and don't hit ground balls.

Gerry - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#374899) #
The Bisons have two doubleheaders in the next three days so they need pitching. Zach Logue gets one of todays games after a call up from NH. I am not sure if this is a one off or a permanent promotion.
jerjapan - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#374908) #
Ugly, I still like Alford and think he could start in CF for a few years, and I'm with Shoeless on Murphy.
Alford is only 24 (for a month or so) and he and Murphy share the loss of development time due to injuries and football.  Adams and Zeuch could be close as well -  all guys that are in the 9 -16 range of my own list. 

No stars here, but back end starters and second division starters have value too. 
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#374910) #
I don't see Alford in the majors regularly.
bpoz - Monday, June 03 2019 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#374913) #
Thanks for your list Shoeless Joe.
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