2010 Blue Jays Top Prospects: 10 - 1

Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 07:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Gerry

Today we wrap up our 2010 Blue Jays Top Prospects 30 with numbers 10-1. For 30-21 click here. For 20-11 click here.

10. Eric Thames, OF

Born November 10, 1986. Selected in the 7th round of the 2008 draft. 

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2009
 22
 Rk
 21
 3
 0
 0
 3
 5
 0
 0
 .286
 .360
 .429
2009
 22
 A+
 195
 15
 5
 3
 21 40 1
 1
 .313
 .386
 .487
2010
 23
 AA
 496
 25
 6
 27
 50
 121
 8
 5
 .288
 .370
 .526

Entering the 2010 season Eric Thames had 216 professional at-bats in his career, a number he would more than double this year as he was finally able to stay healthy. After sustaining injuries in both 2008 and 2009 he decided to take up yoga, in an effort to increase his flexibility and prolong his career. Evidently the exercise paid off, as Thames hit .288 with 27 home runs to lead the Eastern League, even after being aggressively promoted to AA. Along the way he  won the Blue Jays Webster Award for AA, made the Eastern League mid-season and post-season all-star teams, and was named an AA all-star by Baseball America.

The Blue Jay personnel haven't overhyped Thames, instead stressing how raw and inexperienced he is.  He has an aggressive approach at the plate that may be reflective of his inexperience, as the jump to AA is considered one of the toughest in the minor league progression and to do it with so few at-bats makes it tougher still.  As a result he struck out in nearly a quarter of his at bats in 2010, though individual months were better earlier in the season. His major league equivalent numbers for  2010 were a .244 average with 20 home runs and an OPS of 711, so he still has a ways to go in developing his offensive game. As a defender Thames is also a work in process, and he needs to improve his ability to track balls and make plays.  He does have decent speed and his arm is OK, he just is not yet smooth as an outfielder. In 2011 Thames should improve his batting average in Las Vegas, and if this is matched by an improvement in his plate discipline he could be in Toronto by the end of the season.

 

9. Travis d'Arnaud, C

Born February 10, 1989. Selected in the the 1st round (supplemental) of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
 18
 RK
 141
 3
 0
 4
 4
 23
 4
 2
 .241
 .278
 .348
2008
 19
 A-
 175
 13
 1
 4
 18
 29
 1
 2
 .309
 .371
 .463
2008
 19
 A
 64
 5
 0
 2
 5
 19
 0
 0
 .297
 .357
 .469
2009
 20
 A
 482
 38
 1
 13
 41
 75
 8
 4
 .255
 .319
 .419
2010
 21
 A+
 263
 20
 1
 6
 20
 63
 3
 1
 .259
 .315
 .411

A key piece in the Halladay trade and the 81st best prospect in baseball prior to this season, as ranked by Baseball America, d’Arnaud was somewhat of a forgotten man this year, overshadowed by Kyle Drabek and the Brett Wallace/Anthony Gose trade. Not helping matters was that 2010 was a bit of a setback year for d'Arnaud, as a back injury halted a season that started promisingly but ended unremarkably. D’Arnaud was drafted as a catcher and his bat was a question mark at the time, and some analysts didn’t think he’d develop into an above-average hitter or demonstrate much power. D'Arnaud has shown some progress in these regards though, and despite not posting outstanding overall numbers at the plate, he has shown some gap power - in 2009 his 38 doubles led the South Atlantic League. His ISO has remained relatively consistent and he’s at age where it is very reasonable to expect him to develop more power as he further matures.

During his workout for the Jays prior to the 2007 draft, the Jays scouting staff was very impressed with how well d’Arnaud hit the ball to the opposite field. He reportedly struggles with inside fastballs, though as he learns to get the bat around quicker he may end up driving those balls. He possesses the ability to work deep in counts and controls the strike zone fairly well. D’Arnaud has average speed, particularly for a catcher, and attempted 12 stolen bases in 2009. While his speed may diminish as he adds more muscle and suffers from the wear and tear of catching, he does not look like he will be a liability on the bases.

Defensively d’Arnaud is a solid all-around catcher. His arm strength reportedly is above average, though his footwork is still a work in progress, and this gets him into trouble at times when he is throwing down to second. A natural athlete, d’Arnaud is agile behind the plate and has also received plaudits for his game management. With the system stocked with catchers, it will be interesting to see where d’Arnaud begins the 2011 season, but the bigger question will be whether he has recovered from the injury and can pick up from where he left off last year.

8. AJ Jimenez, C

Born May 1, 1990. Selected in the 8th round of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2009
 19
 A
 278
 15
 1
 3
 7
 72
 5
 2
 .263
 .280
 .356
2010
 20
 A
 262
 22
 0
 4
 18
 56 16
 4
 .305
 .347
 .435
2010
 20
 A+
 9
 0
 0
 1
 0
 5
 0
 0
 .111
 .111
 .444

Taken in the ninth round of the 2008 amateur draft out of Puerto Rico, Jimenez slid in the draft due to concerns about an injured elbow that some teams thought might need Tommy John surgery. He avoided surgery but the injury reared its ugly head again in 2010, causing him to miss the middle of the campaign. Jimenez would return late in the season to make nine at-bats in high-A Dunedin after spending much of the year in low-A Lansing. Offensively, his game took a step forward as he repeated the level and had a triple-slash line of .305/.347/.435 in 262 at-bats. He showed more power and more patience, as his ISO rate jumped from .094 in ’09 to .130 in ’10 and his walk rate increased from 2.4 to 6.2 BB%. Although his improvements were clear, his overall numbers were aided by a BABIP of .362. More athletic than a typical catcher, he stole 16 bases in 20 attempts. On defense, Jimenez threw out a staggering 53% of base runners, up from 35% in ’09. If healthy, Jimenez should open 2011 in Dunedin and has serious competition for the title of Jays’ catcher-of-the-future with the likes of J.P. Arencibia, Travis d’Arnaud, and Carlos Perez also in the system.

 

7. Henderson Alvarez, P

Born April 18, 1990. Signed out of Venezuela as a free agent.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2007
 17
 DSL
 8
 7
 25.2
 12.6
 0.0
 2.8
 7.0
 5.61
2008
 18
 Rk
 12
 11
 46.1
 12.2
 0.6
 1.2
 6.6
 5.63
2009
 19
 A
 23
 23
 124.1
 8.8
 0.1
 1.4
 6.7
 3.47
2010
 20
 A+
 23
 21
 112.1
 11.0
 0.8
 2.2
 6.2
 4.33

Last year's #3 prospect had a bit of a rough year, as his rate stats were worse across the board than in 2009. Most notably, Alvarez allowed more than two hits per inning more than the previous year. Of course, any time one reads a stat like that the tendency is check the pitcher's BABIP against, and in fact Alvarez did allow a high BABIP of .344 this year, so it's safe to say he didn't get much help from his fielders, and as a ground ball pitcher, defense is something he relies on. However, despite the bad luck on balls in play, Alvarez was still a markedly worse pitcher than in 2009; his FIP (4.10) was more than a full run worse than last year (2.81).

Alvarez has always had a great arm, and scouting reports indicate he still does. His best pitch is a power sinker which can get up to the mid-90s at times. He is still trying to find the right breaking ball, which is likely one of the reasons for his perpetually low strikeout rates.

Of course, Henderson is very young - he turned 20 just before the season, and pitched the whole season in high A ball. Development-wise, he's ahead of the majority of players, and clearly has plenty of time left for more development. With the major league rotation looking strong for years to come what with the current members and closer-to-the-bigs prospects, the organization can afford to take their time with Alvarez.

 

 

6. Deck McGuire, RHP

Born June 23, 1990. Selected in the first round of the 2010 draft.   

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2008
 19
 NCAA 17
 13
 78.0
 8.08
 0.92
 3.69
 8.08
 3.46
2009
 20
 NCAA 16
 16
 100.1
 7.71
 0.72
 3.68
 10.58
 3.50
2010
 21 NCAA
 16
 16
 112.2
 7.51
 1.04
 2.64
 9.43
 2.96

William Deck McGuire (that’s what it says on his birth certificate!) was the 11th overall pick in the 2010 out of Georgia Tech. McGuire signed a $2-million dollar deal just moments before the draft deadline in August That was $200-thousand above major league baseball’s slotting recommendation. Not bad for someone who was undrafted out of high school in Richmond, Virginia. The 6-foot-6, 215-pound righty won 28 of 35 decisions in his college career with the Yellow Jackets. He struck out 306 batters over 291 innings and was an all-American and ACC pitcher of the year in 2009.

According to McGuire, he is “a four pitch guy, my fastball is 90-94 and I do my best to run it and sink it. Sometimes it co-operates, sometimes it doesn’t. I try to locate my pitches, I won’t overpower anyone for the most part…I have a changeup and breaking ball and I use them sometimes to set up other pitches but...my strikeout pitches are my fastball and slider.”

Andrew Tinnish, the Jays director of amateur scouting, says he likes the 21 year-old’s delivery, arm action and his 87 MPH sharp-breaking slider. He says McGuire has “got a good slider, he’s got a good changeup and he complements it with a curveball he can throw for strikes.”

The Jays feel McGuire will add about 15 to 20 pounds to his frame and hope he will team up with Jays 2009 first round pick Chad Jenkins in the starting rotation one day. One scout likened McGuire to Red Sox hurler John Lackey. He should expect an assignment to either Vancouver, Lansing or Dunedin in 2011.

 

5. Carlos Perez, C

Born October 27, 1990. Signed as an international free agent.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
 17
 DSL
 196
 10
 2
 0
 52
 28
 7
 5
 .306
 .459
 .378
2009
 18
 RK
 141
 11
 3
 1
 16 23 2
 5
 .291
 .364
 .433
2010
 19
 A-
 235
 11
 8
 2
 34 41 7
 3
 .298
 .396
 .438

2010 saw Carlos Perez win his third consecutive R. Howard Webster award and emerge as one of the best catching prospects in the minors. Still only 20, he has been moved along slowly, and a result has a chance to break the club record for Webster Awards (given for player of the year on each team) of three, currently shared by Carlos Delgado, Adam Lind and Luis Lopez. On top of this he was named the best prospect in the New York-Penn League by Baseball America.
 
Perez’s has received plaudits from nearly everyone who has seen him behind the plate. He is a good defensive catcher, possessing soft hands, quick reflexes and the ability to block pitches in the dirt. His game calling is said to be a strength, and he is nearly always in sync with his pitchers. While his arm strength is only average, he is very accurate and has a quick release, and threw out 49% of base runners in 2009 and 36% at Auburn in 2010.

Perez finished 2010 with a .298/.396/.436 line and his .834 OPS ranked second on the Doubledays, a mere 5 points behind Lance Durham, despite being the second youngest player on a team with a collective OPS of .696. Perez has demonstrated the ability to drive the ball into the gaps and, while he hasn’t shown that much power yet, he has plenty of time to develop it or develop more of a pull swing, as he often goes up the middle or to opposite field. In addition to contact skills Perez  possesses control of the strike zone, walking in 12% of his plate appearances this year. Finally, Perez does not have typical catcher’s speed, as he is a fast runner, although this may change as he ages and puts on more muscle. As it stands there are few weaknesses in Perez’s scouting report and lots of reasons to be very excited about his future.

4. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS

Born April 15, 1989. Signed out of Cuba for $10 million.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010
 21
 A+
 161
 7
 3
 1
 5
 25
 7
 0
 .193
 .217
 .292
2010
 21
 AA
 253
 11
 1
 3
 12
 40
 6
 3
 .273
 .305
 .360

It's hard to evaluate a guy like Adeiny Hechavarria. Recently-signed latin prospects are always tough to place because we don't have college or high school stats to go on. Adding to the complexity is the fact that Hechavarria isn't even a typical latin prospect, having come stateside at a more mature age (21). So he was thrown straight into high-A ball and then quickly promoted to AA despite not having much success at A+.

Clearly this ranking is not based on Hech's performance this season, though there were some positives we can take away from it. For one thing, his numbers demonstrably improved after the promotion, indicating that he may just need a few hundred at bats to get into a groove, especially given the difficulty of a transition to completely new country, language and culture. Perhaps his time in the Arizona Fall League will bring that development along even farther before next spring. Another (kind of) positive: Hech struck out a fair amount this year but not a ridiculous amount, which is a flaw that is common among "raw" players. He showed some speed as well, swiping 13 bases and only being caught thrice.

But of course this ranking is based primarily on the glowing scouting reports that were reported before the signing, and didn't change after 400 at bats in minor league baseball. According to those reports, we can expect a fantastic defensive shortstop with a solid bat (one scouting report, comparing Hechavarria to Red Sox prospect Jose Iglesias, labeled Adeiny's offensive game as lower-average, higher-power than Iglesias).

Hechavarria might be the most interesting prospect to watch next year. He got the highest bonus the Jays have ever given, by far, and if his play starts to justify those dollars, man, could he be exciting. Like, 800 times more exciting than he looks in this photo.

 

3. Zach Stewart, RHP

Born September 28,1986. Selected in the  3rd round of the 2008 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2009
 22
 A+
 7
 7
 42.1
 10.00
 0.21
 1.70
 6.81
 2.13
2009
 22
 AA
 7
 7
 37.0
 7.05
 0.24
 2.43
 7.54
 1.46
2009
 22
 AAA (CIN)
 9
 0
 12.1
 8.05
 0.00
 5.85
 11.70
 0.73
2009
 22
 AAA (TOR)
 11
 0
 13.1
 12.18
 0.68
 4.06
 9.47
 3.38
2009
 23
 AA
 26
 26
 136.3
 8.65
 0.86
 3.57
 7.00
 3.63

In one of his last moves as GM of the Jays, J.P. Ricciardi acquired Stewart along with Josh Roenicke and Edwin Encarnacion in exchange for Scott Rolen at the 2009 MLB Trade Deadine.  Drafted as a starter, Stewart was moved to relief in 2009 in part to keep control of his innings and in part because, well, that's where some people feel he's best suited.  The Jays followed that plan for the remainder of the 2009 season but insisted starting was in his future.  Sent back to AA to protect him from the unfriendly confines of the PCL, Stewart reverted to form quite nicely after a rough April and May.  Stewart really shone in June and July where he went 6-1 with an ERA of 2.28 while helping form a dominant front half of the rotation along with Kyle Drabek.

While some people still feel as though Stewart's ultimate role will be that of a dominant reliever, the Jays will likely give him every chance to stick as a starter though there may not be much space in the major league rotation for some time if Kyle Drabek sticks in Spring Training.  Stewart's calling card is a devastating sinker that can touch 95.  He pairs this nicely with a hard slider and a change-up that is said to be much improved.  He still struggles at times with his control but when he's on he induces lots of ground balls while still striking out his fair share.

2011 will be Stewart's age 24 season.  He doesn't have much left to prove at AA but the Jays seem wary of exposing their top young arms to Las Vegas.  If he has a nice spring it's feasible that Stewart could pitch out of the Toronto bullpen in April while being available to make spot starts in case of injury.

 

2. JP Arencibia, C

Born January 5, 1986. Selected in the 1st round of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
 21
 A-
 228
 17
 1
 3
 14
 56
 0
 0
 .254
 .309
 .377
2008
 22
 A+
 248
 22
 0
 13
 11
 46
 0
 0
 .315
 .344
 .560
2008
 22
 AA
 262
 14
 0
 14
 7
 55
 0
 0
 .282
 .302
 .496
2009
 23
 AAA
 466
 32
 1
 21
 26
 114
 0
 1
 .236
 .284
 .444
2010
 24
 AAA
 412
 36
 1
 32
 38
 85
 0
 0
 .301
 .359
 .626
2010
 24
 MLB
 35
 1
 0
 2
 2
 11
 0
 0
 .143
 .189
 .343

This is likely to be a controversial ranking. How you see J.P. Arencibia as a prospect is dependent on two important things: how much you weigh his 2010 numbers compared to other years, and how much you believe those numbers were influenced by the Las Vegas hitting environment.

Of course, with any projection of future performance, the most recent data should always be weighted the most heavily, but previous data shouldn't be ignored. JPA had a pretty good year in 2008, but his plate discipline was awful. Then in 2009 he just had a bad year, posting an on base percentage of just .284. So what to make of his 2010? Did something click, or was it a fluke?

I was looking into this question a few weeks ago, using the major league equivalencies available at Minor League Splits. Unfortunately, the website has been taken down for the off-season, so I don't have exact numbers for you, but JPA's major league equivalency called for an OPS over .800, even factoring in the favourable Las Vegas hitting environment. Take that for what you will, I guess.

That doesn't mean his 2011 projection will be quite that sterling, since an MLE doesn't include data from previous seasons. If JPA gets the starting job next year, I would guess we'll see something like an OPS around .750, with a low OBP and 20-25 homers, and average to slightly-below defense.

That would be an excellent rookie season, and some improvement on that foundation would likely yield a slightly above average major league catcher over the next five years, at least. And that, to me, is worthy of #2 prospect status.

 

1. Kyle Drabek, P

Born December 18, 1987. Selected in the 1st round of the 2006 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2008
 20
 R
 4
 4
 12.0
 4.50
 1.5
 4.5
 4.50
 2.25
2008
 20
 A-
 4
 4
 30.2
 4.86
 0.44
 2.66
 4.43
 2.21
2009
 21
 A+
 10
 9
 61.2
 7.15
 0.00
 2.77
 10.80
 2.48
2009
 21
 AA
 15
 14
 96.1
 8.61
 0.84
 2.90
 7.10
 3.64
2010
 22
 AA
 27
 27
 162.0
 7.00
 0.67
 3.78
 7.33
 2.94
2010
 22
 MLB
 3
 3
 17.0
 9.53
 1.06
 2.65
 6.35
 4.76

While there may have been some internal debate about other prospects on our top 30 list, one name was never in doubt. Kyle Drabek was a unanimous choice for our number one overall prospect in 2010, and probably would have been number one overall last year had the Halladay trade happened before our list came out. The son of a former Cy Young award winner, Doug Drabek, Drabek the younger has a strong pedigree and the tools to match. He throws a fastball that can reach up to 97 and sits comfortably in the mid-90s, and augments it with a power curveball. He also throws a changeup, and sporadically a slider, neither of which is a strong pitch at this juncture, certainly not when compared to his plus fastball and curve. In his third major league start against the Yankees he made a couple of hitters look silly fishing for 58 foot curveballs that broke somewhat ridiculously in front of the plate. (You can seem some spring training video of Drabek's 4 pitches - 5 if you differentiate between his 2 and 4 seem fastball - here.)

Despite this great stuff, Drabek hasn't struck out an inordinate amount of guys in the minors, whiffing about 7+ batters per nine innings over the past two years. His control also needs some work, as he had trouble finding the zone in AA this year. He does do a good job of keeping the ball down in the zone though and inducing ground balls, which help limit his home runs and will help him in the long run. After a strong 2010 in which he was named the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year, Drabek will have the inside track on the number five slot in the Blue Jays rotation in 2011, and if he fails to win it he will almost certainly be the first pitcher called up in the event of an injury. If he can get his K/BB ratio back over 2/1 he could be a strong contender for Rookie of the Year.

67 comments


https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20101003221106571