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Minor League Update 2010 Blue Jays Top Prospects: 10 - 1
Today we wrap up our 2010 Blue Jays Top Prospects 30 with numbers 10-1. For 30-21 click here. For 20-11 click here.

10. Eric Thames, OF

Born November 10, 1986. Selected in the 7th round of the 2008 draft. 

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2009
 22
 Rk
 21
 3
 0
 0
 3
 5
 0
 0
 .286
 .360
 .429
2009
 22
 A+
 195
 15
 5
 3
 21 40 1
 1
 .313
 .386
 .487
2010
 23
 AA
 496
 25
 6
 27
 50
 121
 8
 5
 .288
 .370
 .526

Entering the 2010 season Eric Thames had 216 professional at-bats in his career, a number he would more than double this year as he was finally able to stay healthy. After sustaining injuries in both 2008 and 2009 he decided to take up yoga, in an effort to increase his flexibility and prolong his career. Evidently the exercise paid off, as Thames hit .288 with 27 home runs to lead the Eastern League, even after being aggressively promoted to AA. Along the way he  won the Blue Jays Webster Award for AA, made the Eastern League mid-season and post-season all-star teams, and was named an AA all-star by Baseball America.

The Blue Jay personnel haven't overhyped Thames, instead stressing how raw and inexperienced he is.  He has an aggressive approach at the plate that may be reflective of his inexperience, as the jump to AA is considered one of the toughest in the minor league progression and to do it with so few at-bats makes it tougher still.  As a result he struck out in nearly a quarter of his at bats in 2010, though individual months were better earlier in the season. His major league equivalent numbers for  2010 were a .244 average with 20 home runs and an OPS of 711, so he still has a ways to go in developing his offensive game. As a defender Thames is also a work in process, and he needs to improve his ability to track balls and make plays.  He does have decent speed and his arm is OK, he just is not yet smooth as an outfielder. In 2011 Thames should improve his batting average in Las Vegas, and if this is matched by an improvement in his plate discipline he could be in Toronto by the end of the season.

 

9. Travis d'Arnaud, C

Born February 10, 1989. Selected in the the 1st round (supplemental) of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
 18
 RK
 141
 3
 0
 4
 4
 23
 4
 2
 .241
 .278
 .348
2008
 19
 A-
 175
 13
 1
 4
 18
 29
 1
 2
 .309
 .371
 .463
2008
 19
 A
 64
 5
 0
 2
 5
 19
 0
 0
 .297
 .357
 .469
2009
 20
 A
 482
 38
 1
 13
 41
 75
 8
 4
 .255
 .319
 .419
2010
 21
 A+
 263
 20
 1
 6
 20
 63
 3
 1
 .259
 .315
 .411

A key piece in the Halladay trade and the 81st best prospect in baseball prior to this season, as ranked by Baseball America, d’Arnaud was somewhat of a forgotten man this year, overshadowed by Kyle Drabek and the Brett Wallace/Anthony Gose trade. Not helping matters was that 2010 was a bit of a setback year for d'Arnaud, as a back injury halted a season that started promisingly but ended unremarkably. D’Arnaud was drafted as a catcher and his bat was a question mark at the time, and some analysts didn’t think he’d develop into an above-average hitter or demonstrate much power. D'Arnaud has shown some progress in these regards though, and despite not posting outstanding overall numbers at the plate, he has shown some gap power - in 2009 his 38 doubles led the South Atlantic League. His ISO has remained relatively consistent and he’s at age where it is very reasonable to expect him to develop more power as he further matures.

During his workout for the Jays prior to the 2007 draft, the Jays scouting staff was very impressed with how well d’Arnaud hit the ball to the opposite field. He reportedly struggles with inside fastballs, though as he learns to get the bat around quicker he may end up driving those balls. He possesses the ability to work deep in counts and controls the strike zone fairly well. D’Arnaud has average speed, particularly for a catcher, and attempted 12 stolen bases in 2009. While his speed may diminish as he adds more muscle and suffers from the wear and tear of catching, he does not look like he will be a liability on the bases.

Defensively d’Arnaud is a solid all-around catcher. His arm strength reportedly is above average, though his footwork is still a work in progress, and this gets him into trouble at times when he is throwing down to second. A natural athlete, d’Arnaud is agile behind the plate and has also received plaudits for his game management. With the system stocked with catchers, it will be interesting to see where d’Arnaud begins the 2011 season, but the bigger question will be whether he has recovered from the injury and can pick up from where he left off last year.

8. AJ Jimenez, C

Born May 1, 1990. Selected in the 8th round of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2009
 19
 A
 278
 15
 1
 3
 7
 72
 5
 2
 .263
 .280
 .356
2010
 20
 A
 262
 22
 0
 4
 18
 56 16
 4
 .305
 .347
 .435
2010
 20
 A+
 9
 0
 0
 1
 0
 5
 0
 0
 .111
 .111
 .444

Taken in the ninth round of the 2008 amateur draft out of Puerto Rico, Jimenez slid in the draft due to concerns about an injured elbow that some teams thought might need Tommy John surgery. He avoided surgery but the injury reared its ugly head again in 2010, causing him to miss the middle of the campaign. Jimenez would return late in the season to make nine at-bats in high-A Dunedin after spending much of the year in low-A Lansing. Offensively, his game took a step forward as he repeated the level and had a triple-slash line of .305/.347/.435 in 262 at-bats. He showed more power and more patience, as his ISO rate jumped from .094 in ’09 to .130 in ’10 and his walk rate increased from 2.4 to 6.2 BB%. Although his improvements were clear, his overall numbers were aided by a BABIP of .362. More athletic than a typical catcher, he stole 16 bases in 20 attempts. On defense, Jimenez threw out a staggering 53% of base runners, up from 35% in ’09. If healthy, Jimenez should open 2011 in Dunedin and has serious competition for the title of Jays’ catcher-of-the-future with the likes of J.P. Arencibia, Travis d’Arnaud, and Carlos Perez also in the system.

 

7. Henderson Alvarez, P

Born April 18, 1990. Signed out of Venezuela as a free agent.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2007
 17
 DSL
 8
 7
 25.2
 12.6
 0.0
 2.8
 7.0
 5.61
2008
 18
 Rk
 12
 11
 46.1
 12.2
 0.6
 1.2
 6.6
 5.63
2009
 19
 A
 23
 23
 124.1
 8.8
 0.1
 1.4
 6.7
 3.47
2010
 20
 A+
 23
 21
 112.1
 11.0
 0.8
 2.2
 6.2
 4.33

Last year's #3 prospect had a bit of a rough year, as his rate stats were worse across the board than in 2009. Most notably, Alvarez allowed more than two hits per inning more than the previous year. Of course, any time one reads a stat like that the tendency is check the pitcher's BABIP against, and in fact Alvarez did allow a high BABIP of .344 this year, so it's safe to say he didn't get much help from his fielders, and as a ground ball pitcher, defense is something he relies on. However, despite the bad luck on balls in play, Alvarez was still a markedly worse pitcher than in 2009; his FIP (4.10) was more than a full run worse than last year (2.81).

Alvarez has always had a great arm, and scouting reports indicate he still does. His best pitch is a power sinker which can get up to the mid-90s at times. He is still trying to find the right breaking ball, which is likely one of the reasons for his perpetually low strikeout rates.

Of course, Henderson is very young - he turned 20 just before the season, and pitched the whole season in high A ball. Development-wise, he's ahead of the majority of players, and clearly has plenty of time left for more development. With the major league rotation looking strong for years to come what with the current members and closer-to-the-bigs prospects, the organization can afford to take their time with Alvarez.

 

 

6. Deck McGuire, RHP

Born June 23, 1990. Selected in the first round of the 2010 draft.   

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2008
 19
 NCAA 17
 13
 78.0
 8.08
 0.92
 3.69
 8.08
 3.46
2009
 20
 NCAA 16
 16
 100.1
 7.71
 0.72
 3.68
 10.58
 3.50
2010
 21 NCAA
 16
 16
 112.2
 7.51
 1.04
 2.64
 9.43
 2.96

William Deck McGuire (that’s what it says on his birth certificate!) was the 11th overall pick in the 2010 out of Georgia Tech. McGuire signed a $2-million dollar deal just moments before the draft deadline in August That was $200-thousand above major league baseball’s slotting recommendation. Not bad for someone who was undrafted out of high school in Richmond, Virginia. The 6-foot-6, 215-pound righty won 28 of 35 decisions in his college career with the Yellow Jackets. He struck out 306 batters over 291 innings and was an all-American and ACC pitcher of the year in 2009.

According to McGuire, he is “a four pitch guy, my fastball is 90-94 and I do my best to run it and sink it. Sometimes it co-operates, sometimes it doesn’t. I try to locate my pitches, I won’t overpower anyone for the most part…I have a changeup and breaking ball and I use them sometimes to set up other pitches but...my strikeout pitches are my fastball and slider.”

Andrew Tinnish, the Jays director of amateur scouting, says he likes the 21 year-old’s delivery, arm action and his 87 MPH sharp-breaking slider. He says McGuire has “got a good slider, he’s got a good changeup and he complements it with a curveball he can throw for strikes.”

The Jays feel McGuire will add about 15 to 20 pounds to his frame and hope he will team up with Jays 2009 first round pick Chad Jenkins in the starting rotation one day. One scout likened McGuire to Red Sox hurler John Lackey. He should expect an assignment to either Vancouver, Lansing or Dunedin in 2011.

 

5. Carlos Perez, C

Born October 27, 1990. Signed as an international free agent.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
 17
 DSL
 196
 10
 2
 0
 52
 28
 7
 5
 .306
 .459
 .378
2009
 18
 RK
 141
 11
 3
 1
 16 23 2
 5
 .291
 .364
 .433
2010
 19
 A-
 235
 11
 8
 2
 34 41 7
 3
 .298
 .396
 .438

2010 saw Carlos Perez win his third consecutive R. Howard Webster award and emerge as one of the best catching prospects in the minors. Still only 20, he has been moved along slowly, and a result has a chance to break the club record for Webster Awards (given for player of the year on each team) of three, currently shared by Carlos Delgado, Adam Lind and Luis Lopez. On top of this he was named the best prospect in the New York-Penn League by Baseball America.
 
Perez’s has received plaudits from nearly everyone who has seen him behind the plate. He is a good defensive catcher, possessing soft hands, quick reflexes and the ability to block pitches in the dirt. His game calling is said to be a strength, and he is nearly always in sync with his pitchers. While his arm strength is only average, he is very accurate and has a quick release, and threw out 49% of base runners in 2009 and 36% at Auburn in 2010.

Perez finished 2010 with a .298/.396/.436 line and his .834 OPS ranked second on the Doubledays, a mere 5 points behind Lance Durham, despite being the second youngest player on a team with a collective OPS of .696. Perez has demonstrated the ability to drive the ball into the gaps and, while he hasn’t shown that much power yet, he has plenty of time to develop it or develop more of a pull swing, as he often goes up the middle or to opposite field. In addition to contact skills Perez  possesses control of the strike zone, walking in 12% of his plate appearances this year. Finally, Perez does not have typical catcher’s speed, as he is a fast runner, although this may change as he ages and puts on more muscle. As it stands there are few weaknesses in Perez’s scouting report and lots of reasons to be very excited about his future.

4. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS

Born April 15, 1989. Signed out of Cuba for $10 million.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010
 21
 A+
 161
 7
 3
 1
 5
 25
 7
 0
 .193
 .217
 .292
2010
 21
 AA
 253
 11
 1
 3
 12
 40
 6
 3
 .273
 .305
 .360

It's hard to evaluate a guy like Adeiny Hechavarria. Recently-signed latin prospects are always tough to place because we don't have college or high school stats to go on. Adding to the complexity is the fact that Hechavarria isn't even a typical latin prospect, having come stateside at a more mature age (21). So he was thrown straight into high-A ball and then quickly promoted to AA despite not having much success at A+.

Clearly this ranking is not based on Hech's performance this season, though there were some positives we can take away from it. For one thing, his numbers demonstrably improved after the promotion, indicating that he may just need a few hundred at bats to get into a groove, especially given the difficulty of a transition to completely new country, language and culture. Perhaps his time in the Arizona Fall League will bring that development along even farther before next spring. Another (kind of) positive: Hech struck out a fair amount this year but not a ridiculous amount, which is a flaw that is common among "raw" players. He showed some speed as well, swiping 13 bases and only being caught thrice.

But of course this ranking is based primarily on the glowing scouting reports that were reported before the signing, and didn't change after 400 at bats in minor league baseball. According to those reports, we can expect a fantastic defensive shortstop with a solid bat (one scouting report, comparing Hechavarria to Red Sox prospect Jose Iglesias, labeled Adeiny's offensive game as lower-average, higher-power than Iglesias).

Hechavarria might be the most interesting prospect to watch next year. He got the highest bonus the Jays have ever given, by far, and if his play starts to justify those dollars, man, could he be exciting. Like, 800 times more exciting than he looks in this photo.

 

3. Zach Stewart, RHP

Born September 28,1986. Selected in the  3rd round of the 2008 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2009
 22
 A+
 7
 7
 42.1
 10.00
 0.21
 1.70
 6.81
 2.13
2009
 22
 AA
 7
 7
 37.0
 7.05
 0.24
 2.43
 7.54
 1.46
2009
 22
 AAA (CIN)
 9
 0
 12.1
 8.05
 0.00
 5.85
 11.70
 0.73
2009
 22
 AAA (TOR)
 11
 0
 13.1
 12.18
 0.68
 4.06
 9.47
 3.38
2009
 23
 AA
 26
 26
 136.3
 8.65
 0.86
 3.57
 7.00
 3.63

In one of his last moves as GM of the Jays, J.P. Ricciardi acquired Stewart along with Josh Roenicke and Edwin Encarnacion in exchange for Scott Rolen at the 2009 MLB Trade Deadine.  Drafted as a starter, Stewart was moved to relief in 2009 in part to keep control of his innings and in part because, well, that's where some people feel he's best suited.  The Jays followed that plan for the remainder of the 2009 season but insisted starting was in his future.  Sent back to AA to protect him from the unfriendly confines of the PCL, Stewart reverted to form quite nicely after a rough April and May.  Stewart really shone in June and July where he went 6-1 with an ERA of 2.28 while helping form a dominant front half of the rotation along with Kyle Drabek.

While some people still feel as though Stewart's ultimate role will be that of a dominant reliever, the Jays will likely give him every chance to stick as a starter though there may not be much space in the major league rotation for some time if Kyle Drabek sticks in Spring Training.  Stewart's calling card is a devastating sinker that can touch 95.  He pairs this nicely with a hard slider and a change-up that is said to be much improved.  He still struggles at times with his control but when he's on he induces lots of ground balls while still striking out his fair share.

2011 will be Stewart's age 24 season.  He doesn't have much left to prove at AA but the Jays seem wary of exposing their top young arms to Las Vegas.  If he has a nice spring it's feasible that Stewart could pitch out of the Toronto bullpen in April while being available to make spot starts in case of injury.

 

2. JP Arencibia, C

Born January 5, 1986. Selected in the 1st round of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
 21
 A-
 228
 17
 1
 3
 14
 56
 0
 0
 .254
 .309
 .377
2008
 22
 A+
 248
 22
 0
 13
 11
 46
 0
 0
 .315
 .344
 .560
2008
 22
 AA
 262
 14
 0
 14
 7
 55
 0
 0
 .282
 .302
 .496
2009
 23
 AAA
 466
 32
 1
 21
 26
 114
 0
 1
 .236
 .284
 .444
2010
 24
 AAA
 412
 36
 1
 32
 38
 85
 0
 0
 .301
 .359
 .626
2010
 24
 MLB
 35
 1
 0
 2
 2
 11
 0
 0
 .143
 .189
 .343

This is likely to be a controversial ranking. How you see J.P. Arencibia as a prospect is dependent on two important things: how much you weigh his 2010 numbers compared to other years, and how much you believe those numbers were influenced by the Las Vegas hitting environment.

Of course, with any projection of future performance, the most recent data should always be weighted the most heavily, but previous data shouldn't be ignored. JPA had a pretty good year in 2008, but his plate discipline was awful. Then in 2009 he just had a bad year, posting an on base percentage of just .284. So what to make of his 2010? Did something click, or was it a fluke?

I was looking into this question a few weeks ago, using the major league equivalencies available at Minor League Splits. Unfortunately, the website has been taken down for the off-season, so I don't have exact numbers for you, but JPA's major league equivalency called for an OPS over .800, even factoring in the favourable Las Vegas hitting environment. Take that for what you will, I guess.

That doesn't mean his 2011 projection will be quite that sterling, since an MLE doesn't include data from previous seasons. If JPA gets the starting job next year, I would guess we'll see something like an OPS around .750, with a low OBP and 20-25 homers, and average to slightly-below defense.

That would be an excellent rookie season, and some improvement on that foundation would likely yield a slightly above average major league catcher over the next five years, at least. And that, to me, is worthy of #2 prospect status.

 

1. Kyle Drabek, P

Born December 18, 1987. Selected in the 1st round of the 2006 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2008
 20
 R
 4
 4
 12.0
 4.50
 1.5
 4.5
 4.50
 2.25
2008
 20
 A-
 4
 4
 30.2
 4.86
 0.44
 2.66
 4.43
 2.21
2009
 21
 A+
 10
 9
 61.2
 7.15
 0.00
 2.77
 10.80
 2.48
2009
 21
 AA
 15
 14
 96.1
 8.61
 0.84
 2.90
 7.10
 3.64
2010
 22
 AA
 27
 27
 162.0
 7.00
 0.67
 3.78
 7.33
 2.94
2010
 22
 MLB
 3
 3
 17.0
 9.53
 1.06
 2.65
 6.35
 4.76

While there may have been some internal debate about other prospects on our top 30 list, one name was never in doubt. Kyle Drabek was a unanimous choice for our number one overall prospect in 2010, and probably would have been number one overall last year had the Halladay trade happened before our list came out. The son of a former Cy Young award winner, Doug Drabek, Drabek the younger has a strong pedigree and the tools to match. He throws a fastball that can reach up to 97 and sits comfortably in the mid-90s, and augments it with a power curveball. He also throws a changeup, and sporadically a slider, neither of which is a strong pitch at this juncture, certainly not when compared to his plus fastball and curve. In his third major league start against the Yankees he made a couple of hitters look silly fishing for 58 foot curveballs that broke somewhat ridiculously in front of the plate. (You can seem some spring training video of Drabek's 4 pitches - 5 if you differentiate between his 2 and 4 seem fastball - here.)

Despite this great stuff, Drabek hasn't struck out an inordinate amount of guys in the minors, whiffing about 7+ batters per nine innings over the past two years. His control also needs some work, as he had trouble finding the zone in AA this year. He does do a good job of keeping the ball down in the zone though and inducing ground balls, which help limit his home runs and will help him in the long run. After a strong 2010 in which he was named the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year, Drabek will have the inside track on the number five slot in the Blue Jays rotation in 2011, and if he fails to win it he will almost certainly be the first pitcher called up in the event of an injury. If he can get his K/BB ratio back over 2/1 he could be a strong contender for Rookie of the Year.

Posted by Gerry on Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 07:00 AM EDT.
2010 Blue Jays Top Prospects: 10 - 1 | 67 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Denoit - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#223795) #

Great job with the prospects again this year.

The top ten is the strongest I remember in a long time. Other than Eric Thames I think all of them have a very good chance to become at least average everyday major league players. Hopefully a few of them rise above that to become all-star level players, the talent is surely there. It's going to be interesting to see what happens this offseason, Anthopolous has not been coy about using prospest in trades and he could use one of the catchers and a B level pitcher or two to net a pretty good youg player.

[ Reply to This ]
ayjackson - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#223797) #

Nice job again. 

Did you have any rules concerning Adonis Cardona?  I have a hard time believing he wouldn't feature prominently on a few of the ballots?

The links to the other reviews both link to 30-21.

A few of the pictures are mixed up.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#223800) #
JPA stands out a 24, but of the other 19-20-21 catchers, the big question will be who to keep and who to trade.

I suppose it will depend on who the other GMs will want the most.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#223804) #
D'Arnaud is the hardest one to rate.  I have no doubt that he's capable of hitting .300 with medium range pop if he is healthy, but he's a catcher and that means health is always a big question mark.  It's kind of funny that the two prospects most likely to hit for a good average, in my view, are catchers (d'Arnaud and Perez).  I would be surprised if one of them doesn't end up as an outfielder or perhaps at third or second base. 
[ Reply to This ]
Flex - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#223808) #
Turning one of the two top catchers into an outfielder or first baseman would be a better outcome than the one I fear, which is that one of them will get traded and turn into Tukka Rask, and the guy we keep will end up being Justin Pogge. I have a lot more faith in AA than the guy who traded the goalie, but anything can happen, and usually it's not good!
[ Reply to This ]
PeterG - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#223813) #
I think JP is the least attracive of the 4 catchers imo. I strongly disagree with ranking him ahead of Perez and perhaps D'Arnaud. Jimenez still has more to prove and is borderline top 10 imo.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#223815) #
I think once you hit the top 10 you have to put distance from the majors as a key component. Drabek & JPA are here and should be playing a lot next year with both having All-Star potential as rookies (JPA could be John Buck but cheaper thus All-Star is possible, Drabek everyone sees as a future All-Star).

Kind of nice to be able to say the guy who is probably 3rd for total potential as a catcher is a potential All-Star. That is the depth the Jays require to compete.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#223816) #
Does the MLU gang have any end-of-season analysis on David Cooper and Kevin Ahrens?  Neither cracked the top 30, but both had improvements this year, especially a second-half surge by Cooper.  What's the consensus -- are they still alive as prospects?  And how about a word on Justin Jackson?
[ Reply to This ]
Anders - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#223817) #

I think, on a personal note, that Carlos Perez may be my favourite prospect in the system right now. I expect fairly big things from him.

Overall my takeaway is that, thanks to trades and a couple of decent draft picks, the Jays system is in much better shape than it has been previously; this list last year was pretty woeful. Now I would think that Drabek, Perez and Arencibia are locks for various top-100 lists, and Stewart, McGuire and perhaps d'Arnaud have outside shots at making them. Not that that is a be all and end all, but perhaps its nice to have a little recognition that the Jays system, which has generally been poorly regarded the last 5 or so years (despite producing a number of good major leaguers) is on the rebound.

[ Reply to This ]
Anders - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#223819) #

Does the MLU gang have any end-of-season analysis on David Cooper and Kevin Ahrens?  Neither cracked the top 30, but both had improvements this year, especially a second-half surge by Cooper.  What's the consensus -- are they still alive as prospects?  And how about a word on Justin Jackson?

We are going to have a brief recap of prospects who are still interesting but didn't make the cut tomorrow, so look out for that.  As for Justin Jackson, well, he struck out something like 30% of the time this year and had 8 extra base hits in 300 plate appearances in addtion to being injured. That ship may have sailed.  

[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#223823) #

In looking at this years top 30 list I see a list that is very deep but short of high potential prospects close to the major leagues.  Drabek and Stewart can help the rotation next year but after that you will have to wait for your next top of the rotation starter.   It's Alvarez and this years draft crop who could fill that role but that is likely to be the end of 2012 at the earliest. 

Other than cacthers the Jays don't have a lot of high level prospects close to the major leagues.

When BA ranks their organizations I would expect the Jays to be in the 7-10 range.

[ Reply to This ]
brodh - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#223825) #
great post, just wondering is Rzep considered to be a major leaguer now and not a prospect?  I had him in my list as a prospect still.  I also had Cooper on my list as I think he finished the season better.  Could still be something there.  But two players were rated a lot higher than I would expect: Mastroianni and Thames.  They both have 4A written over them imo.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#223827) #
Anders,
We may not have got the praise that our farm deserved but how about looking at our system from a few different angles.

Winning Rookie of the year is an honor.But coming close should also be considered. R Romero was a strong 2nd or 3rd.

How about Litch Year 1+2 looked quite good.Same for Romero.

Guys that don't qualify to compete for Rookie honors but have a great breakout on 2nd year. Cecil & Janssen.

It took a while but Hill & Lind shone for us. Maybe Snider can also do that.
[ Reply to This ]
Chris DH - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#223828) #

Thanks to the Battersbox for putting together the rankings.  Always a lot of fun to read and discuss.

I find it interesting that Jimenez was ranked higher than d'Arnaud.  Jimenez didnt make the BA top 20 list for the Midwest League although it was loaded with prospects this year and there are 16 teams, iirc.  D'Arnaud, at a higher level, was ranked 5th by BA.  However, BA was somewhat surprised at the support shown to D'Arnaud by scouts, coaches, etc.

It seems everybody is high on Carlos Perez but I will be interested to see how his power develops.  And I am wondering if he will be the one that will eventually move to another position.  At least one scout sees him having the ability to play 2B or the OF.

Cant wait to see the BA report for the Eastern League - believe it comes out tomorrow, Friday.  I would think Drabek, Stewart and Hechavarria are locks to make the Top 20.  Wondering if Eric Thames will make the list.

Lastly, someone during a recent BA chat brought up the point that only one Oriole prospect to this point has made a Top 20 list.  Everybody always talks about how the Orioles are going to compete very soon but I wonder if this is really the case.  Mind you, SS Manny Machado didnt have enough at-bats to be included on any of the lists and I would assume LHP Zack Britton will make the Eastern League and/or International League lists.

 

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fredlewis3 - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#223829) #

Here is the Toronto Observer's prospect list.

http://www.torontoobserver.ca/2010/09/22/blue-jays-future-looking-bright/

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Mick Doherty - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#223832) #

At least one scout sees him having the ability to play 2B or the OF.

Perez = Biggio?
I think the Jays would take that!

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Chris DH - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#223834) #

Yes, thats the one. Think BA mentioned it during one of the chats. All Jays fans would love if Perez turned into Biggio!

And I think in the same chat there was a comparison of Asher W to Curt Schilling. I think we would all take that one too!

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DaveB - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#223836) #
First of all, thanks for all of the write-ups and research for all 30 top prospects, and obviously the work done in looking over just as many other prospects who didn't make the list. The Jays' system has vastly improved and no doubt that will be reflected when the rankings come out.

A couple points. I don't consider Arencibia's high ranking to be controversial at all. He had a tremendous season and while I prefer two other position players ahead of him because of their defense, putting JPA at No. 2 is pretty logical and justifiable. I look at his 2010 as a natural progression from 2008, with a significant improvement in his K/BB ratio. His defensive numbers are mediocre, at best, and I doubt he will become even an average defensive catcher in the Majors, but you can't deny the potential value of his bat.

Another (kind of) positive: Hech struck out a fair amount this year but not a ridiculous amount, which is a flaw that is common among "raw" players.

Hechavarria had a 15.7 per cent strikeout ratio, which is better than any position player in the top 30 except for Emaus at 15.5 per cent. His low walk rate was predictable, but I view his strikeout rate as surprisingly good. I don't know what Hech's BABIP was this year, I suspect it was low. Overall, he made excellent contact and I view that as a definite positive. It will be interesting to see what happens in the Arizona League, starting in just a few days. When he and Iglesias played together before, Iglesias was the one shifted to second base. The same could happen this time, but Boston may well want some shared playing time at SS for their prospect. I'd like to see Hech play some 2B as that could be where he starts his career with the Jays.

The trickiest part of the rankings is how to rate the three catchers. What a wealth of talent there, all of them between 19-21 years old. I would rate d'Arnaud highest among the three. He's an excellent defensive catcher, a first-round draft pick. His offensive numbers in Low A were just as impressive as what Perez did this year, and his performance in A ball was arguably better than what Jimenez did in Lansing. He has more power than either of them and that is never a bad thing. He was off to a good start in the FSL before a summer slump that may have been influenced by his health, so it will be interesting to see how all of them do next year as they move up a level, unless of course one of them is traded. I'd prefer to keep all three for one more year until we see how JPA works out.

Who is missing from the Top 30? Everyone will have their favorites and no doubt each member of the braintrust had some on their list who didn't receive enough aggregate support. I think you can make a strong case for Cooper, Farina (who got the nod over Farquhar as the post-Collins closer in New Hampshire and had a tremendous season), Ochinko and Ahrens for his post switch-hitting resurgence. Among the kids you can look at Opitz, Sweeney and Hawkins perhaps being equal to Thon.  At least they put on a uniform in North America. Thon to me is no different a prospect than Nessy or Cardona. Perhaps good, perhaps not, but unknowable except for the Jays being willing to spend a lot of money on them.

It's all good material for debate and I commend the staff for their brilliant work. Thanks.

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1990Jays - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#223838) #
a couple of points
- McGuire and Thames don't belong in the top 10
- Perez is too low, you can make a solid case for him being number 1 and he definately is miles ahead as a prospect than Arencibia
- Gose should have ranked much higher
- Santiago Nessy should have been ranked, he put up decent numbers for a 17 year old
- Kellen Sweeney should have been slotted somewhere.
- the whole list seems too safe,  i guess you guys don't value upside as much as i do.

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Mick Doherty - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#223840) #

Catchers at 2, 5, 8 and 9?

I guess the Buck stops here!

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Mike Green - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#223841) #
Cant wait to see the BA report for the Eastern League - believe it comes out tomorrow, Friday.  I would think Drabek, Stewart and Hechavarria are locks to make the Top 20.  Wondering if Eric Thames will make the list.

Hechevarria made the FSL list, so I don't think that he'll be there.

The major league bullpen figures to have some openings in 2011.  It would not be surprising if one or two of the names on these lists is on the 25 man to start the season in that role. Earl Weaver would be pleased.
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John Northey - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#223845) #
Last years top 10 are here and it is interesting to look at it today.

#10: Tim Collins - traded, now in KC in AAA
#9: Daniel Farquhar - knocked down a bit to #22 after repeating AA
#8: Carlos Perez - up to #5 via a solid year
#7: Tyler Pastornicky - traded, in Atlanta's system
#6: David Cooper - did better but failed to make top 30
#5: JP Arencibia - now #2
#4: Chad Jenkins - drops to #15
#3: Henderson Alvarez - dropped to #7
#2: Moises Sierra - injured, under 100 AB, now #17
#1: Zach Stewart - great year, drops to #3
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Marc Hulet - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#223846) #

- McGuire and Thames don't belong in the top 10
BA had McGuire ranked as one of the top 10 players available in the 2010 draft prior to the season and he fell a bit due to the number of players stepping up their game but was still a consensus Top 30 choice in the nation. That is Top 10 prospect in any system. Thames is a case where you could put him anywhere in the 8-15 range and it would be reasonable.

- Perez is too low, you can make a solid case for him being number 1 and he definately is miles ahead as a prospect than Arencibia
Peres was also playing in short-season ball whereas some of the other players have proven a lot more, and pitching (arguably, I suppose) still has a greater value to an organization than a catcher.

- Gose should have ranked much higher
The guy is loaded in the toolshed but has yet to prove that he can hit well enough to be an everyday guy, let alone a big leaguer. Right now he projects to be a fourth or platoon outfielder. He definitely has a chance to zoom up the depth chart with a strong 2011 and could certainly be a fast mover.

- Santiago Nessy should have been ranked, he put up decent numbers for a 17 year old
It was the DSL and he's a teenager that is slowly approaching Bengie Molina territory in terms of his body shape and size. That is worrisome and certainly hurts his value.

- Kellen Sweeney should have been slotted somewhere.
I would agree that a case could be made to have Sweeney in the Top 30. However, if he ends up at third hase, he doesn't have to power to be a regular at that position on a first division team.

Overall, you have to keep in mind that lists are entirely subjective and no one person is completely right, nor is any one person completely wrong. I would be interested in hearing the reasoning behind your statements, just for interest's sake.

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TamRa - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#223851) #
Random reactions...

maybe the most striking difference in the rankings I have and these is that I'm not as sold on Jimenez as the committee, and i have an irrational attachment to Aaron Sanchez.

There's a similar relationship between where I have Gose and McGuire and where they are on the BB list - almost the inverse of each other.

Once you get out of the top 15 or so, of course, things get much different in some ways but for any team, the difference in, for instance, 16 and 24 is pretty marginal and as much supposition as anything else.

I will say that I  have Cardo0na in the top 20, based entierly on the press reports, and that I have both Cooper and Loewen near the bottom of the top 30, but in.

Still, all in all, a fine list that doesn't have some of the abberational head-scratchers of years past (I remember my confusion when Joel Collins was released because I'd assumed being ranked here meant he was something to get excited about)

***
On the catchers- like everyone else I'm in love with Carlos Perez and hope/expect he will be the star of the bunch....I'm real worried about d'Arnaud's back (potential move to 3b?) and Jimenez seems raw enough yet to temper my enthusiasum. I look for a best case scenario being that JPA builds up solid moderate value over the next three or four years and then being tradable when Perez needs his job.

also, I kind of figure Jeroloman will yet settle in as an all-field no-hit second stringer who'll be here longer than JPA will be, but as a reserve.

***
Other than cacthers the Jays don't have a lot of high level prospects close to the major leagues.

Not sure if you are seeing that as a negative, or assuming BA will, but I don't. Obviously we have a couple of potential holes, but in total, there are not really a ton of obvious places where you'd add a hot prospect to our current team. It'd be worse if we were, say, the Pirates and didn't have any high-level types.

***
Speaking of guys who didn't make this list, here are the guys in my top 30 which didn't make this poll*:

Adonis Cardona
Kevin Aherns
Adam Loewen
Sam Dyson
David Cooper

I didn't have Jeroloman (future back-up), Farquhar and Magnuson (relievers who will be a big help but not closers), Kenect (just missed) and McDade (high flame-out potential)

*Acknowledging Gerry's comment the other day that there are a dozen other guys who got at least one vote

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1990Jays - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#223852) #

Marc

BA had McGuire ranked as one of the top 10 players available in the 2010 draft prior to the season and he fell a bit due to the number of players stepping up their game but was still a consensus Top 30 choice in the nation. That is Top 10 prospect in any system. Thames is a case where you could put him anywhere in the 8-15 range and it would be reasonable.

I just don't see the upside in McGuire, he was ranked high because he was a high floor/low bust potential guy. He was supposed to be the most MLB ready pitcher, basically a slightly poor man's Mike Leake and that's fine for a team that is ready to contend and one that is looking for immediete help but he just doesn't have the same value to the Blue Jays. We need high ceiling power arms that can miss bats in the AL East, this isn't my philosophy, this is what Alex  has said a number of times, another Mike Leake will have little to no impact on this organization. I'd take a guy like Aaron Sanchez and his 13.5K/9 or Asher Wojo and his power slider over McGuire anyday of the week even though they are more likely to never make the bigs.

Peres was also playing in short-season ball whereas some of the other players have proven a lot more, and pitching (arguably, I suppose) still has a greater value to an organization than a catcher.


Its really not his fault the organization has decided to be so conservative with him, all i know is he's crushed pitching everywhere he's played(against older comp), guns down baserunners and his defence is praised by virtually every scout. Chad Jenkins was ranked number 3 last year despite never having pitched professionally, what  exactly did he deserve the ranking when others clearly "proved" a lot more ? That was a ranking based on pedigree and potential and it is my opinion that Carlos Perez is the only one that has anything resembling superstar potential in the farm system and i'm willing to live with the bust potential due to age. I didn't understand the last part of your sentence, young catchers who can hit and play good defence are the most valuable commodity in baseball, why on earth would they be less valuable than pitchers.


- The guy is loaded in the toolshed but has yet to prove that he can hit well enough to be an everyday guy, let alone a big leaguer. Right now he projects to be a fourth or platoon outfielder. He definitely has a chance to zoom up the depth chart with a strong 2011 and could certainly be a fast mover.

His Bat isn't anymore fringy than Jimenez or Hech, infact he probably has a longer track record than those two and he plays a valuable position too. 


-It was the DSL and he's a teenager that is slowly approaching Bengie Molina territory in terms of his body shape and size. That is worrisome and certainly hurts his value.

I don't know anything about his conditioning so you could be right but its my opinion that any "bonus baby" that puts up a decent enough first professional year needs to be looked at closely.


-I would agree that a case could be made to have Sweeney in the Top 30. However, if he ends up at third hase, he doesn't have to power to be a regular at that position on a first division team.

Kellen Sweeney is just a gut feeling for me, he appears to have been underscouted due to injury and lack of eye popping power. He'll probably end up at third base but i like his plate discipline and i think he's gonna hit for average.


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scottt - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#223854) #
#6: David Cooper - did better but failed to make top 30

That one stands out.

He's likely to put up some great numbers next year in Vegas. He'd be alright if he'd get on bases more.
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John Northey - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#223855) #
So what is the composition of the top 30?
SP: 12: Drabek, Stewart, McGuire, Alvarez, Wojciechowski, Sanchez, Jenkins, Carreno, Mills, Syndergaard, Hutchison, Murphy
RP: 2: Farquhar, Magnuson
CA: 5: JPA, Perez, AJ Jimenez, d'Arnaud, Jeroloman
1B: 1: McDade (30th)
2B: 1: Emaus
3B: 0
SS: 3: Hechavarria, Thon, Pierre
OF: 6: Thames, Marisnick, Gose, Sierra, Mastroianni, Knecht

So, 14 pitchers, 5 infielders, 6 outfielders and 5 catchers. Pretty obvious what AA was focused on this year eh? The complete lack of guys at third makes it obvious why Encarnacion was here all year and why the Jays will be on the hunt for a few this winter.
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Jonny German - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#223862) #
It's amazing the difference in opinion on Arencibia today vs., say, August 8. I'm guilty of it myself to some degree, it's easy to forget just how dominant he was in Vegas. Apparently sitting on the bench for 2 months is significant negative data.
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85bluejay - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#223863) #

Thanks for all the effort in putting together the list - always good food for thought.

The irony with the Gose placement is that if Wallace was still in the organisation, it's very likely that he

would be a top 5 selection - yet, AA and his staff traded Wallace straight up for Gose even though the

ML team has an opening at  1st base for 2011.

The story next year for the Jays Farm system will be the emergence of the excellent 2010 draft class and

if  cooper & Ahrens can build on their strong finish.

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actionjackson - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#223864) #
As for Justin Jackson, well, he struck out something like 30% of the time this year and had 8 extra base hits in 300 plate appearances in addtion to being injured. That ship may have sailed. 

Whatchu talkin' 'bout Willis? That ship ain't sailed 'til I tell it to sail.  ;)  :D

Nice job guys. Thanks for all you do to bring us closer to our favourite team.  :)
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Gerry - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#223866) #

If AA knows what we need to compete in the AL East, and he beefs up the scouting staff, and in his fist draft he takes McGuire, the implication is that AA wimped out on his first number one pick.  Can someone explain why AA would pick a pitcher who will not work out?

 

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85bluejay - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#223868) #
McGuire will work out just fine - after all, this is not Doofus & co. drafting.
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Jonny German - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#223869) #
Are you talking about Doofus & co. that drafted Ricky Romero?
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China fan - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#223870) #

....Can someone explain why AA would pick a pitcher who will not work out?...

Possibly because of his value as a trading chip.  Judged strictly on need, it might seem that the Jays have far too many starting pitchers in their system, including a bunch who project as 4th or 5th starters.  But I assume that AA drafted the best available player at each step of the 2010 draft, knowing that good young pitchers will always have a trade value, even those that are unlikely to crack the Jays rotation in the next few years.  Notice that AA has already traded two young pitchers -- Brandon League and Tim Collins.  (Relievers, yes, but they illustrate my general point about AA's willingness to deal pitchers.)  Alternatively, if a young pitcher develops fast and shows a higher ceiling than initially expected, it becomes easier for the Jays to trade a Marcum or Cecil for a key position player.  (Not that I'd want to see either of those two traded, but it could happen.)

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actionjackson - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#223871) #
Brett Cecil? Shaun Marcum? Jesse Litsch? Aaron Hill? Adam Lind? Travis Snider? Let's not forget Robinzon Diaz for Jose Bautista. While I was not a fan of his incessant need to flap his gums, he made some decent moves. His failure to pull the trigger and get some great young talent to compliment his quick studies in the farm system at 8 straight deadlines and in 8 straight offseasons and to occasionally (other than Snider) roll the dice both in the trading and drafting arenas led me to go from enthusiastic fan to disillusioned fan. Did I mention I was not a fan of his mouth? You don't have to like the guy, but you can't deny that he did some good things. Not every move he made was poop. He just wasn't good enough for this division. Not many are.
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85bluejay - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#223872) #

Actually, I was referring to the Doofus & co. who in 8 yrs. couldn't sniff even a pennant race, much less an

actual playoff spot  - now watch a real GM build a winner and championship team in 1/2 that time

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Jonny German - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#223877) #
Oh I agree he turned out to be a Doofus. But it's weird to reference that in connection with McGuire. Roughly speaking, McGuire is a very similar pick to Romero - and in contrast Romero was a much vilified pick that currently, finally, looks quite reasonable. If you asked me to choose over/under on how McGuire's major league career will measure up to what Romero has accomplished thus far, I'll take the under without a second's hesitation. Young pitchers will break your heart.
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Thomas - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#223878) #
If Drabek was a unanimous selection for #1 I'm astonished enough of you had Arencibia #2. For a team in Toronto's situation that doesn't appear willing to compete within the next couple of years I would trade him straight up for the rest of the top 10 and Marisnick, Gose, Woj, Sanchez, and Jenkins as well.

This list wasn't compiled with specific attention paid to Toronto's situation. It was a list of the best prospects, not the top prospects, taking into account Toronto's roster construction. It doesn't make particular sense to evaluate prospects in that manner.

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stevieboy22 - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#223882) #
In Doofus's defense, the AL East and ownership mandate changed drastically over JP's tenure.

When he got here, the Yanks had a 90 million dollar payroll, and a few years later had a payroll north of 200 million..

The Sox went from 75 million to almost double that..

The Rays went from absolute garbage to powerhouse..

Riccardi was asked to trim payroll, then given a little more to spend, yet still not nearly enough, and then was told to cut back again in 2009...

I'm not trying to say Riccardi was the greatest GM.. But he was certainly competent, and not every team can say that about their GM... In order to compete in this division, we as Jays fans need to hope for a guy who is ahead of the curve and I think many of us have that confidence in AA.. But time will tell... We will know in 4 years, if the claim: "the money is there if they want it," is true. Perhaps in 5 years people on this board will be calling AA a "doofus."  But I doubt it...

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Forkball - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#223883) #
JPR virtually ignored all HS players and international players.  He wouldn't go, or couldn't convince ownership to go over slot.  He drastically cut back on scouts.  He couldn't effectively spend money on free agents.

That he ended up as a mediocre GM while tying his hands behind his back like that is pretty impressive.

If AA's plan was implemented 7-8 years ago maybe we would have seen Halladay's playoff no hitter in Toronto.
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metafour - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#223884) #
The McGuire hate is too much.  While he may not have superstar potential, the idea that he isn't a very good pitching prospect is fairly ridiculous.  McGuire's prospect status was more or less universally above that of 21st overall pick RHP Alex Wimmers, and Wimmers absolutely blew through the FSL with a 0.57 ERA, 13.21 K/9, and 2.87 BB/9 over just under 16 innings.  This doesn't mean much when evaluating McGuire, but their overall packages aren't overly different, and it puts into perspective the fact that McGuire has great ability.  He was ranked as a Top 10 prospect on pretty much all lists for a reason.
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slitheringslider - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#223885) #
I just don't see the upside in McGuire, he was ranked high because he was a high floor/low bust potential guy. He was supposed to be the most MLB ready pitcher, basically a slightly poor man's Mike Leake and that's fine for a team that is ready to contend and one that is looking for immediete help but he just doesn't have the same value to the Blue Jays. We need high ceiling power arms that can miss bats in the AL East, this isn't my philosophy, this is what Alex  has said a number of times, another Mike Leake will have little to no impact on this organization. I'd take a guy like Aaron Sanchez and his 13.5K/9 or Asher Wojo and his power slider over McGuire anyday of the week even though they are more likely to never make the bigs.

Dude, I think you're going a little overboard with the 'not #1 pitcher' projections from the draft. How many pitchers in baseball are true Aces? Halladay, Hernandez, Lee, Sabathia, Lincecum, then the list gets a lot thinner there on out. Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero were both projected to be #3/#4 starters coming out of the draft and they are doing pretty well for themselves in the AL East. Few pitchers come out of the draft each year are projected to be #1 pitchers in the big leagues, maybe 2/3 each year and about 0.6 of them turns into Aces in the big leagues.

Deck McGuire is projected as a 2/3 starter; a John Lackey type. Lackey had plenty of value and was a low-end Ace for the Angels for a lot of years. I am sure the Jays would be happy if McGuire turned out that way. No one is expecting him to be the second coming of Roy Halladay but his stuff is certainly good enough to be the next John Lackey, who was a key pitcher in those good Angels teams. 'High floor/low bust' is all relative. Sure, McGuire has 'low ceiling' in comparison to other Top 15 picks in the past decade, but he is unanimously agreed to be a better prospect than guys like Aaron Sanchez and Asher Wojciechowski.

Having great 'stuff' is a requirement to be a professional pitcher but it is how you use that stuff that separates minor league journeyman and major league star. How fast you can throw your fastball is not the best indicator of success. Pitching is about hitting your spots, upsetting the hitter's timing, and outthinking your opponent. McGuire clearly is a very talented pitchers with all the necessary tools to succeed in baseball or else AA and his expanded scouting staff wouldn't draft him. Ease up on the hate for him, if he does bust then you can come back and brag about it. I haven't heard from all the Ricky Romero haters in a while now that he's an established #2/3 starter in the big leagues.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#223886) #
I wonder how the missed 1/2 season will affect McGuire.  It may have contributed to Jenkins' slow professional start. 
When one drafts a college pitcher high, the expectation is that he will sail through A ball pretty well.  I think that it probably helps if the pitcher gets his feet wet in short-season ball after signing.

FWIW, the players I really like are Drabek, Stewart, Perez and Gose.  That doesn't mean that they ought to be the top 4 prospects in the organization- I've been wrong before.

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actionjackson - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#223889) #
While Eric Thames may or may not be a top 10 prospect (I'm the doofus when it comes to these things  ;)  ), I give him credit for changing a workout regime that was probably hurting his progress as a prospect and finding something that did work, at least this year. Not only did he not continue beating his head against a wall and bench pressing more weight more often like a stereotypical meathead jock, but he struck out and went in a completely different direction with the yoga routine. At the very least, that shows intelligence, adaptability and possibly coachability, which are all very important for things like swing adjustments, footwork in the outfield, becoming a smarter baserunner etc.

I think yoga's going to get more popular in baseball, as players get over the fact that it goes against the typical machismo attitude that will always surround pro sports. To my way of thinking, flexibility is the number one requirement to get through the 162 game grind in reasonably good health. Cardio is important too despite the fact that it's a game of short bursts. Don't get me wrong, strength is very important, but I'm not sure it's quite as important as the other two. As we have seen in the modern era, too much bulk causes a ton of strain on a player's tendons and ligaments. I enjoy a more balanced game (and it has been heading in that direction for a while now), but that's just me. I found the HR explosion far too one dimensional, and I'm glad to see baseball headed in the direction that it's heading in. Then again, I'm not a chick.  ;)

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slitheringslider - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#223893) #
I think yoga's going to get more popular in baseball, as players get over the fact that it goes against the typical machismo attitude that will always surround pro sports. To my way of thinking, flexibility is the number one requirement to get through the 162 game grind in reasonably good health. Cardio is important too despite the fact that it's a game of short bursts. Don't get me wrong, strength is very important, but I'm not sure it's quite as important as the other two. As we have seen in the modern era, too much bulk causes a ton of strain on a player's tendons and ligaments. I enjoy a more balanced game (and it has been heading in that direction for a while now), but that's just me. I found the HR explosion far too one dimensional, and I'm glad to see baseball headed in the direction that it's heading in. Then again, I'm not a chick.  ;)

I think that's true of any sport. Anytime you hear a hamstring tear or tweaked whatever a lot of it is preventable if you do things like yoga that increase flexibility and strengthen muscles you don't know exist. Bulk muscle is inflexible, even if you are strong you are not using your muscle to its full potential.
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Chris DH - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#223894) #

I would have to agree that the negativity towards Deck is unwarranted.  He was a consensus top15 pick in the 2010 draft.  ESPN had him at #13, PNR Scouting at #9, MLB Bonus Baby at #7 and Baseball America at #7 although i think BA's ranking dropped a couple as we got closer to draft day.  Yes, there was mention of him being a #3/#4 starter but some of the reports do mention him possibly becoming a #2 starter.  Lets hope we can put this arguement to rest this time next year.

Mike G - in terms of BA rankings, players can be on more than one leagues Top 20 list.  It depends on their # of at bats.  For instance, OF Mike Trout of the Angels has been on 2 lists so far. 

Not sure if anybody has seen this but Project Prospect had a poll of 32 managers, coaches and players for the Eastern League and 2 Jays made the top 5 with another one receiving honorable mention:

#1. Kyle Drabek; #4. Eric Thames; and HM Darin Mastroianni.

http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/09/14/poll-eastern-leagues-top-player

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metafour - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#223895) #
It may have contributed to Jenkins' slow professional start

Jenkins faced weak competition at Kennesaw State which IMO was overlooked and played a much bigger role than him not pitching 15-20 innings after he was drafted.  McGuire on the other hand has been the #1 starter for a baseball powerhouse in a very strong baseball conference for two years now.  A lot of people want to stick his development curve to that of Jenkins, but it should be fully expected of him to start in Dunedin next year with a legitimate expectation of finishing in AA.
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jerjapan - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#223896) #
Let's not forget Robinzon Diaz for Jose Bautista.

Unfortunately I can't recall the source on this, but a Bauxite posted a link to a story this summer that said picking up Bautista was actually AA's idea - he was apparently tasked with scouring the waiver wire and wanted to take a flier on Bautista. 
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actionjackson - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#223898) #
You're indeed correct jerjapan. However, at the time AA was one of JP's underlings, albeit as we now know a very talented and bright underling, but still an underling. As such JP would've had to have signed off on it and if he didn't agree with it, it wouldn't have happened. If you're going to give AA the credit for it (most of which he deserves), then blame must be spread around the entire front office including AA, Tony LaCava, Jon Lalonde etc. for the lack of postseason appearances during the JP years. The man who sits in the big chair, rightly or wrongly, gets all the credit/blame for what happens under his watch. For the most part he hired the people under him, so their mistakes are his mistakes and their successes are his successes.
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Mylegacy - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#223900) #
Most enjoyable exercise! Well done !

13 guys that didn't make the Top 30 that I think will turn out to be at least reasonable - if not better - prospects than some who made the cut:

(As I rate them) :

1) Adonis Cardona, 2) Deivy Estrada, 3) Santiago Nessy, 4) Alan Farina, 5) Michael Crouse, 6) Sean Ochinko, 7) Adam Loewen, 8) Sam Dyson, 9) Daniel Webb, 10) Kellen Sweeney, 11) Christopher Hawkins, 12) Misual Diaz and 13) Gabriel Cenas

Seriously, given the possible stars in our Top Prospects and the talent even deep in the system our Jays are a vastly improved system over last years - and I think one of the best Jays systems I've ever seen.

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S P - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#223901) #
"Doofus" didn't have nearly the organizational support and room for error that AA is getting. JP never really got a chance to rebuild. He was under a President and ownership that valued optical competitiveness over actual. Thus, they were pretty rudderless the entire time. He only had the one top 10 pick. When he finally got money, it wasn't enough and it didn't last long enough to make a difference, resulting in him having to fix mistakes, something many other GMs don't have to. He didn't have the draft or scouting budgets that AA has now or two other teams in the division have. Considering all of this, that doofus did pretty well. Kinda weird how bitter the hate for him is considering that the standard he had to reach was basically perfection--Tampa had to become practically a perfect baseball operation in order to topple the top 2. AA will have to be perfect too or else we'll be calling him a doofus.
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85bluejay - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#223907) #

S P

Your post seems to come straight out from a chapter of "The book of Excuses'  - Please, every failed GM in every

sport has a litany of excuses - the "I was a good GM, but the fates conspired against me, if only this or that had

gone my way, I would have built a championship team" - I based my comments on the end results, not on

"coulda,shoulda,woulda"  - 8 wasted years says it all.

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85bluejay - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#223908) #

Mylegacy.

Nice post - Many of those you mentioned would have been in my top 30 esp. Crouse/Dyson(personal fave),Webb

& Farina

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CeeBee - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#223910) #
It's been a long time in the Jays system when it mattered much who the 30-50 group was. I'm pretty sure we have seen outliers make it before and we will again but there really does seem to be some real talent in not only the top 10 but further down the charts. Does give one a bit of hope for the future even with our own cross to bear of being in the AL East. :)
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actionjackson - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#223931) #
"Doofus" didn't have nearly the organizational support and room for error that AA is getting. JP never really got a chance to rebuild. He was under a President and ownership that valued optical competitiveness over actual. Thus, they were pretty rudderless the entire time. He only had the one top 10 pick. When he finally got money, it wasn't enough and it didn't last long enough to make a difference, resulting in him having to fix mistakes, something many other GMs don't have to. He didn't have the draft or scouting budgets that AA has now or two other teams in the division have. Considering all of this, that doofus did pretty well. Kinda weird how bitter the hate for him is considering that the standard he had to reach was basically perfection--Tampa had to become practically a perfect baseball operation in order to topple the top 2. AA will have to be perfect too or else we'll be calling him a doofus.

Yes it is true that JP did not have nearly the organizational support that AA is getting. There's quite a difference between the two though. JP was hired by a non-baseball guy who was blown away by JP's ability to walk on water (at least verbally) and turn water into wine for the low, low price of...JP's the one who said he could deliver the postseason, despite being in the AL East, on a $50 million payroll and a scouting/front office staff that was hacked in half or more. This must've been music to Godfrey's and the suits at Rogers' ears and rather than do what was best for the organization, they hired JP. Had a baseball man been the president, he might have been able to tell the suits that this guy was talking crap, but that wasn't the case. There is no room for error in the AL East, no matter who you are or how much financial support your organization gives you.

I'm not entirely sure JP was interested in rebuilding. If he had been, would he not have let them know how much money it was going to take to rebuild properly? They could have said yes that's feasible or no it's not, but I'm not sure they ever were given that option. The Jays were drowning in red ink at the time and his hacking and slashing was probably needed at the time he was hired on. Once the money was there (2004-05 offseason roughly) though, he poured it into free agent contracts to lesser lights or overpayments for seemingly brighter lights. He was given plenty of money from that point forward. I don't think he spent it anywhere near efficiently enough. Where was the expansion back into Latin America? Where were the bigger bonuses for higher upside players in the draft? Where was the replenishment of a decimated scouting and front office staff? He said he could do it "the A's way" with more stats and fewer scouts, then booted Keith Law, who I think had been hired to consult on all things Sabermetric, and then went back to his roots as a scout. Talk about flying blind. Depleted scouting staff + no numbers guy = JP relying ancient scouting reports with no numbers for current performance context = Kevin Mench, Brad Wilkerson, David Dellucci, Kevin Millar, John Thomson, Tomo Ohka, and Victor Zambrano showing up well past their expiry dates. To be fair, some of these guys were disposed of as soon as it became apparent they were past it (Dellucci, Thomson, Ohka, Zambrano), but Mench, Wilkerson and Millar were kept way too long, which wouldn't have been a problem had Gibbons not been desperate to save his job and had Gaston not had beliefs set in stone, that would probably cause him to choose Millar over the rookie equivalent of the second coming of Lou Gehrig. This led to those three getting waaayyy too much playing time.

He may not have had the draft or scouting budgets that AA has now, but did he even want them? Given all that he spent on free agents, I'm not sure. Surely he had the power to take money from the payroll budget and put it into the draft/scouting budgets. He came from an organization that didn't think too highly of scouts and valued college players over high school players to the extreme or didn't have the money to do anything else. Once the payroll budget opened up, he had the funds to rebuild properly, but I question whether or not he had the willingness.

Credit where credit is due: JP was an excellent dumpster diver, had very good drafts despite the limitations (which may have been his own in the latter years), and made some decent trades. That being said, I don't remember a trade where I muttered to myself: "Holy crap, that took a lot of cahones". AA has already made some bold, balls out, good ole fashioned baseball challenge trades, which may or may not work out, but they show an ability to pull the trigger without fear or hesitation. He's very well prepared and seems to value the opinions of others. I have no idea about JP's preparedness, but the Russ Adams selection tells us a bit about how he felt about the opinions of others. On a diplomacy scale, he may have been slightly towards the autocratic side of the midpoint between autocratic and diplomatic. AA likes to gather as much (maybe too much) intel as possible, by asking questions of those that have been around the game a while, and then when he feels comfortable, he makes his decision and doesn't look back. He may indeed end up being a "doofus", but he won't be the same kind of "doofus" that JP was.

Somewhat off the topic of this post, I'm happy to see the hiring of Jay Sartori (I know it happened a month ago, but I'm slow). Tampa's owner, president and GM are all Wall Street guys and now we've got our own investment banker for advice on spending on players, be it draft bonuses, arbitration, extensions and free agency. That's a nice "thinking outside the box" hire. Good to see.
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chocolatethunder - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#223935) #
Credit where credit is due: JP was an excellent dumpster diver, had very good drafts despite the limitations (which may have been his own in the latter years), and made some decent trades. That being said, I don't remember a trade where I muttered to myself: "Holy crap, that took a lot of cahones". AA has already made some bold, balls out, good ole fashioned baseball challenge trades, which may or may not work out, but they show an ability to pull the trigger without fear or hesitation. He's very well prepared and seems to value the opinions of others. I have no idea about JP's preparedness, but the Russ Adams selection tells us a bit about how he felt about the opinions of others. On a diplomacy scale, he may have been slightly towards the autocratic side of the midpoint between autocratic and diplomatic. AA likes to gather as much (maybe too much) intel as possible, by asking questions of those that have been around the game a while, and then when he feels comfortable, he makes his decision and doesn't look back. He may indeed end up being a "doofus", but he won't be the same kind of "doofus" that JP was.

Probably one of the best statements I have read about JP period...he's no where near as bad as he was labelled, seemed most paper guys had an agenda vs Jp...he deserves credit for some of the strenghts of the farm teams performance.
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Ryan Day - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#223939) #
Where was the expansion back into Latin America?

Signing Carlos Perez, Henderson Alvarez, Gustavo Pierre, Moises Sierra, Johermyn Chavez, and others. And hiring Marco Paddy, who continues to run Latin American scouting under Anthopoulos.

Ricciardi didn't break the bank on Latin prospects - though Pierre & Fuenmayor both got big bucks - but he was definitely building up that part of the organization.
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MatO - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#223941) #

Doofus & Co.

Doofus hired the current GM.  If Doofus's judgement was so poor then we shouldn't expect much out of the current GM.  And as far as I know the current GM hasn't let one person go from "& Co" who were also hired by Doofus.

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Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#223944) #
I agree with the general sentiment expressed by Mat, but Anthopoulos did replace Dick Scott with Andrew Tinnish.  It is also true that 2010 was a better developmental year for the minor league organization than 2009.

That aside, is it not possible to say that Ricciardi was in the great mass of general managers, with strengths and weaknesses, but neither particularly good nor particularly bad overall?  He wasn't Bavasi and he wasn't Branch Rickey. Anthopoulos looks to be noticeably better than Bavasi, but the comparison with Rickey will have to wait approximaitely 40 years. :)

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MatO - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#223947) #
You are correct Mike except that Tinnish was made Director of Amateur Scouting while Tony LaCava and Charlie Wilson now handle the minor league development.
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actionjackson - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#223952) #
Probably one of the best statements I have read about JP period...he's no where near as bad as he was labelled, seemed most paper guys had an agenda vs Jp...he deserves credit for some of the strenghts of the farm teams performance.

Absolutely. If some of them had given him a grade, they would probably have given him a Z-. With reference to this and Mike Green's post above, I'd probably give him a C+.

Signing Carlos Perez, Henderson Alvarez, Gustavo Pierre, Moises Sierra, Johermyn Chavez, and others. And hiring Marco Paddy, who continues to run Latin American scouting under Anthopoulos.

Ricciardi didn't break the bank on Latin prospects - though Pierre & Fuenmayor both got big bucks - but he was definitely building up that part of the organization.

Thanks for correcting me. Yes he was able to get some Latin prospects into the system, but I think it'll be looked upon as a trickle once the academy gets going and starts pumping out talent and giving the system the infusion it's been thirsting for since Interbrew pulled up the stakes on the previous academy. As I said before Ricciardi was kind of hamstrung by having a huge Blue Jay fan, instead of a baseball man, as president. We'll never know if building an academy was ever kicked around in the Ricciardi front office, but one thing I think we can all agree on is that Paul Godfrey was in way over his head and was not the right man for the job.

Doofus hired the current GM.  If Doofus's judgement was so poor then we shouldn't expect much out of the current GM.  And as far as I know the current GM hasn't let one person go from "& Co" who were also hired by Doofus.

Absolutely, and I'm glad you brought this up. Ricciardi, despite his er media issues, was very capable at bringing in not only competent people, but for lack of a better term: "good guys". Think about it: how many Randy Moss/Manny Ramirez/Yes there is an "I" in team types did we have during his tenure?...Aside from Shea "Noah" Hillenbrand of course. Sturtze was one I remember. The specifics don't matter. When a muckraker was identified and his ego was larger than his talent, he was dispatched post haste. Three things he seemed to excel at were people, pitching, and defense. Ultimately, it wasn't enough because the front office/scouting department was stretched way too thin, as a result of the slashing of the budget in 2002. Money did become available later though and one would assume he had a say in terms of resource allocation, but he seemed to prefer spending it on payroll. Maybe that came from Godfrey (Mr. Make the Fans Happy Now and Everything Will be Alright). We'll never know. One thing we do know is that the front office/scouting department remained woefully understaffed, an academy in the Dominican was not built, and signability picks were the order of the day in the draft. Ricciardi has to take some, but definitely not all, of the blame for that.

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TamRa - Friday, October 08 2010 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#223971) #
Please, every failed GM in every sport has a litany of excuses - the "I was a good GM, but the fates conspired against me, if only this or that had gone my way, I would have built a championship team" - I based my comments on the end results, not on "coulda,shoulda,woulda"  - 8 wasted years says it all.

Yes, but the thing is, for MOST fired GM's, the "excuses" are valid REASONS. the fact that there are reasons don't and in most cases (Byrnes in Arizona springs to mind as a possible exception) shouldn't save the job - but just because the bottom line is "failed to succeed" doesn't mean that there are not other reasons besides "GM was a doofus"

didn't have nearly the organizational support and room for error that AA is getting.

It can't be stressed strongly enough that there's hardly any valid comparison to be made between working for Godfrey and working for Beeston - by the time Beeston was back in place, JP had jumped the shark.

JP's the one who said he could deliver the postseason, despite being in the AL East, on a $50 million payroll and a scouting/front office staff that was hacked in half or more.

Basically, he knew what he had to say to get hired, however, let's also keep in mind that the difference between the Yankee-ceiling and the rest of the league in 2002 was remarkably lower than it was by say 2007. I charted it out and the Yanks payroll broke away from everyone but Boston almost exponentially over those five years. I doubt JP saw that coming.

I agree with the general sentiment expressed by Mat, but Anthopoulos did replace Dick Scott with Andrew Tinnish.  It is also true that 2010 was a better developmental year for the minor league organization than 2009.

Evan as a (in general terms) JP defender, one thing that is becoming more obvious looking back is that there seemed to be a disconnect between acquiring good talent and developing it well (on the hitting side particularly) Dunno whether you can blame that all on Dick Scott but there seems to be a pattern of sorts.




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Mark - Saturday, October 09 2010 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#223980) #
JP was not a good enough GM for the AL east, but I believe if he was the GM of a team in the AL or NL central/west during his tenure he would have made the playoffs and would probably still have a job.

He was far from terrible or a doofus, but he clearly wasn't ready to compete with the best in baseball.

To find someone who is able to compete at the top is rare, and so far things are looking good for AA, but there is still a lot of time to say whether or not he is good enough.

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bpoz - Saturday, October 09 2010 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#223982) #
This is a good, reasonable comparison of JPR and AA.

I won't repeat everything said by others. They had different styles.
JPR was build the farm fast. So maybe that was draft college players. IMO that was successful lots & lots of pitchers. But just a couple of position players. Most of the 2010 ML team & farm belong to JPR. His drafts changed greatly in the last 2-3 years more HS picks, more risk & longer development. So JPR had 2 styles in this regard.

AA has only 1 year so we don't know his full abilities. Any cheap Wilkersons, expensive F Thomas OR will it be something else for the finishing touches. R Halladay would have brought value back for JPR too. I wonder if he would have gone for a ML player instead, JPR's timetable was very short.

AA's adding another farm club is different from most organisations. I am sure there are others but only Matt Abraham IMO was an older pick, of course the undrafted FAs were older. This philosophy is different. Unsigned round 41 Seth Conner I read was pretty good and young, IMO he was an example of later rounds being used on good young players and then expecting to realistically sign them because funds were reallocated from other areas. So if this $ use is the plan then Deck McGuire confuses me.

Deck McGuire:- picked #11, $2Mil signing bonus. Opinions differ on his talent level but $2Mil=$2Mil. Is that not 4 Aron Sanchez bonus sums? Sorry if my $ are wrong. Since we don't know how this draft will eventually turn out,we can only judge drafting philosophy. 9th & 11th picks B Mims & S Opitz type (player to$) choices have to be considered. All kinds of strategies can be considered for this 1st pick. One is pay $2Mil or so for a safe/closer to ready pick, if that is how they evaluated McGuire. #11 is probably quite a few spots better than the 2011 1st choice, so will the drafting philosophy change due to the pickings being slimmer.
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bpoz - Monday, October 11 2010 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#224005) #
Metafour,
I like your thoughts on D McGuire finishing in AA in 2011. I feel the same way. But I thought he would start the year in Lansing, you believe it will be Dunedin.
NO argument from me but I was wondering a few things.
1) Who will be the SP rotation in Dunedin & Lansing? I only had 2 good IMO opening day SP in Dunedin H Alvarez & C Jenkins. The others if still with the Jays would be Leibel, Huggins type. That would leave Lansing opening day SP extremely stacked.
2) Based on my view on the early SP, IMO Lansing has a great chance to win the 1st half playoffs spot. I also saw Dunedin as weak in the 1st half, but strong in the 2nd half due to SP promotions. I actually sort of expect McGuire,A Woj, S Dyson & D Hutchinson to all get to AA.
3) D McGuire is being projected as a low ceiling ML starter. I suppose that is due to his polish and lack of dominating stuff. I know he has what is considered a good pitchers body, but maybe he is also a very smart guy. How did G Maddux do it? Marcum? Orel Hershiser, Dolye Alexander? Pat Hentgen was great competitor,pretty smart and maybe is stuff is much better than McGuire.
4) Do we dare promote any Dunedin pitchers to Vegas? I am afraid that the A & AA success will be destroyed at Vegas?
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themousepad - Thursday, October 14 2010 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#224144) #

interesting stuff about Thames.

-"He also was hit by more pitches than any Eastern Leaguer (18)" - projectprospect.com

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bpoz - Sunday, October 24 2010 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#224453) #
Our Prospects articles are 2-3 weeks old, but I keep reviewing them almost every day because I enjoy doing it.

The HOT topics these days are the playoffs and the new manager search. Thats good.

The comments for this article are a lot on JP Richardi. His nickname "D" (which we are now discouraging) implies the evaluation of Bad in the classifications of Good/OK/Bad. I evaluate Good/OK for JP. I loved Wednesdays with JP.

Starting November we could have our Manager and will have our WS champ.
I know things will cool down then until Dec (winter meetings)and then heat up again going to the 2011 season. I would really enjoy more evaluation discussions in this slow period about JP/Ash/Gillick and even AA. Many Bauxites have been fair in pointing out that the ML baseball $ Landscape changed when Ash took over and escalated against the AL East 3 yearly non-contenders. AA has to win against this unfairness too or he will be evaluated as Bad.
I really hope JP gets another job as GM and anywhere but the AL East. IMO he would have succeeded as GM of the NYY. The Mets should have done better this decade assuming they did have a good budget. They need a GM, I hope JP is interested. If JP ever gets a GM position and Cito is available and interested he should grab him. IMO the 2010 team was more JP's than AA's and Cito was his most successful manager and I cannot think of any significant moves made to help the 09 & 10 teams.
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