I'm beginning to believe that the 2025 Blue Jays will probably be an active participant in the post-season festivities.
There, I said it.
I'm not sure of that, mind you. Certainly not the same way I am sure that The Game will be denouncing team management and all their works every step of the way, from now until the End of Days. Nevertheless, I am beginning to think a post-season berth is this year's most likely outcome. Which caused me to ponder the myriad ways that the game (the one played between the white lines) has changed since the team's first post-season appearance, back in 1985. Forty years ago. Some of us were even there.
I think the most significant change, by far, has to be the number of plate appearances that end with the hitter walking back to his dugout after a third strike.
In 1985, AL starting pitchers averaged 5.1 Ks per 9 innings. And if that's what the average starting pitcher was up to, one can be reasonably confident that roughly half the starters in the league were averaging fewer than that. Which a quick peek at the numbers confirms - of the 66 men who started at least 15 games that season, 30 struck out 5.1 per 9 or better, and 36 were below that league average.
Would you care to guess how many of the 64 AL pitchers who have started 15 games this season are at (or below) 5.1 Ks per 9 innings?
None of them. The low man is Kyle Hendricks of the Angels, who has fanned 5.6 per 9. Hendricks and his teammate Jack Kochanowicz are the only AL starters below 6 Ks per 9. And just one of the 1985 starters, Floyd Bannister of the White Sox, was striking out more hitters than your average AL starter in 2025. Behold! A Data Table!
I think it's slightly spooky that the AL Relievers and Starters end up at the exact same place on two sets of data 40 years apart, but there you go. Both years we have 21 starting pitchers who average more Ks per 9 than the average relief pitcher; we then have another 9 starters who strike out more than the average starter (30 altogether); and then the rest of the league.
I have long believed that most of this is because of the hitters - the pure contact hitter has more or less disappeared from the game. Almost everybody is trying to hit the ball over the fence, and willing to regard the additional strikeouts as a price worth paying. That's part of the story, but only part - the power hitters behave differently these days as well. Babe Ruth led the league in striking out five times, but he never fanned more than 93 times in a season. Ted Williams tops out at 64 Ks, when he was a 20 year old rookie. And Joe DiMaggio never struck out more than the 39 times he fanned as 21 year old rookie. So I suspect these fellows just might have changed their approach when they got to two strikes.
You know, the way Bo Bichette does. Bichette, after all, is one of the league's top contact hitters. It boggles my mind that this is an accurate description of someone who has never failed to strike out at least 100 times in a full season. But there we are. Of the 66 qualified AL hitters this season, Bichette - on pace to strike out 103 times this year - ranks 11th as least likely to strike out. And three of the guys ahead of him wear the same uniform (Guerrero, Kirk, Clement.)
Well, hitting has always been hard and I don't think it's getting any easier. Every team uses at least four different pitchers in every game, so hitters are constantly faced with a different set of problems to solve half the time they step into the box. I think the real difference made by all these additional strikeouts comes on defense. More strikeouts means fewer outs required by your defenders. Fewer outs required from your defenders means defense is not as important as it used to be. Quod erat demonstrandum. Is there a flaw in my logic?
And that brings us back to Bo Bichette, who we're generally agreed is a below-average defensive shortstop. I admit, I've never worried about that as much as most people. I watched the New York Yankees win lots of games and lots of championships with Derek Jeter playing shortstop, and I don't think shortstop defense has gotten more important since Captain Intangibles roamed the field. Quite the contrary. Still, even the most casual look at Bichette's defensive numbers is discouraging. Toronto shortstops are dead last in assists and total chances handled, though they're well above average in putouts. But we find something similar with Toronto's second basemen and I think there's a general consensus that Andres Gimenez and Ernie Clement are pretty good defensive players. The same thing happens, albeit at a different level - in this case, it's below average in assists and total chances, and very good indeed on putouts.
Anyway, that's why I don't worry as much about Bo Bichette's defense as most people do. I don't like it a whole lot either- I just don't worry as much. And I think he just might be working behind the pitching staff best suited to his defensive skill set. Such as it is.
I do hate to speculate about post-season roster decisions with three weeks still left to play. It feels so premature, if not positively dangerous. Tempting fate, and all that. But hey... I've crawled way out on that limb already. I actually said things like "probably" and "most likely." In for a penny, in for a pound, I suppose. So a couple of quick points. Unless there's an injury to an infielder, I very much doubt Kiner-Falefa will be on the post-season roster. So I wouldn't worry about it. I'd worry much more about the potential injury that puts him there. I think the only position player complication would come if Anthony Santander suddenly looks tanned, rested and ready to rock. Which still seems unlikely. but it would really complicate matters.
I have long assumed that if and when the time comes to cut back to four starters (I will hedge these bets til the end!), it would be Eric Lauer and Chris Bassitt who head to the pen. Lauer because he's done it before, as recently as earlier this year (and also because it's very hard to trust Brendon Little and quite impossible to trust any of the other LH relievers.) Bassitt simply because Schneider has said that "Chris does weird well" and suddenly pitching out of the bullpen would be pretty weird for someone who's always been a starter. I note that it's generally believed that what a team wants and needs in a post-season bullpen are guys that can get you a strikeout when you want one. If you cast your gaze back up at the right side of that Data Table, you will notice that the two Jays starters who strike out the most hitters are... (drum roll, if you please) ... Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer.
Late breaking news! Bichette to the IL. Is everyone excited about the improved team defense?
I didn't think so.
Matchups
Tue 12 Sep - Garcia (1-0, 4.50) vs Berrios (9-5, 4.02)
Wed 13 Sep - Alexander (4-1, 3.19) vs Bieber (2-1, 4.15)
Thu 14 Sep - Javier (1-2, 4.43) vs Gausman (9-10, 3.63)
There, I said it.
I'm not sure of that, mind you. Certainly not the same way I am sure that The Game will be denouncing team management and all their works every step of the way, from now until the End of Days. Nevertheless, I am beginning to think a post-season berth is this year's most likely outcome. Which caused me to ponder the myriad ways that the game (the one played between the white lines) has changed since the team's first post-season appearance, back in 1985. Forty years ago. Some of us were even there.
I think the most significant change, by far, has to be the number of plate appearances that end with the hitter walking back to his dugout after a third strike.
In 1985, AL starting pitchers averaged 5.1 Ks per 9 innings. And if that's what the average starting pitcher was up to, one can be reasonably confident that roughly half the starters in the league were averaging fewer than that. Which a quick peek at the numbers confirms - of the 66 men who started at least 15 games that season, 30 struck out 5.1 per 9 or better, and 36 were below that league average.
Would you care to guess how many of the 64 AL pitchers who have started 15 games this season are at (or below) 5.1 Ks per 9 innings?
None of them. The low man is Kyle Hendricks of the Angels, who has fanned 5.6 per 9. Hendricks and his teammate Jack Kochanowicz are the only AL starters below 6 Ks per 9. And just one of the 1985 starters, Floyd Bannister of the White Sox, was striking out more hitters than your average AL starter in 2025. Behold! A Data Table!
1985 2025
Player Team GS IP SO SO/9 Player Team GS IP SO SO9
Floyd Bannister CHW 34 210.2 198 8.5 Logan Gilbert SEA 21 109.2 151 12.4
Bruce Hurst BOS 31 229.1 189 7.4 Garrett Crochet BOS 29 185.1 228 11.1
Britt Burns CHW 34 227 172 6.8 Tarik Skubal DET 28 180 222 11.1
Roger Clemens BOS 15 98.1 74 6.8 Jacob Lopez ATH 17 92.2 113 11.0
Jack Morris DET 35 257 191 6.7 Jack Flaherty DET 28 146.2 171 10.5
Frank Tanana 2TM 33 215 159 6.7 Hunter Brown HOU 28 167.2 190 10.2
Mike Witt CAL 35 250 180 6.5 Joe Ryan MIN 27 157 176 10.1
Bert Blyleven 2TM 37 293.2 206 6.3 Will Warren NYY 29 141 153 9.8
Tim Lollar 2TM 23 150 105 6.3 Jacob deGrom TEX 27 155.2 169 9.8
Gene Nelson CHW 18 145.2 101 6.2 Cade Povich BAL 17 96 103 9.7
Phil Niekro NYY 33 220 149 6.1 Luis Ortiz CLE 16 88.2 96 9.7
Bret Saberhagen KCR 32 235.1 158 6.0 Carlos Rodón NYY 29 170.1 180 9.5
Mike Boddicker BAL 32 203.1 135 6.0 Shane Baz TBR 28 155 164 9.5
Tim Birtsas OAK 25 141.1 94 6.0 Charlie Morton 2TM 24 135.1 142 9.4
Ken Dixon BAL 18 162 108 6.0 Yusei Kikuchi LAA 30 161.2 163 9.1
Bob Ojeda BOS 22 157.2 102 5.8 Bryan Woo SEA 28 175.2 178 9.1
Jim Beattie SEA 15 70.1 45 5.8 Kris Bubic KCR 20 116.1 116 9.0
Dave Stieb TOR 36 265 167 5.7 Ryan Pepiot TBR 29 163 161 8.9
Matt Young SEA 35 218.1 136 5.6 Jack Leiter TEX 25 127.2 126 8.9
Mike Moore SEA 34 247 155 5.6 Nathan Eovaldi TEX 22 130 129 8.9
Dennis Rasmussen NYY 16 101.2 63 5.6 George Kirby SEA 19 104.2 104 8.9
AL RELIEVERS -- 6224 3906 5.6 AL RELIEVERS -- 7850.2 7795 8.9
Joe Cowley NYY 26 159.2 97 5.5 Chris Bassitt TOR 29 161 157 8.8
Teddy Higuera MIL 30 212.1 127 5.4 Eric Lauer TOR 15 95 93 8.8
Bud Black KCR 33 205.2 122 5.3 Framber Valdez HOU 28 176.1 171 8.7
Danny Darwin MIL 29 217.2 125 5.2 Gavin Williams CLE 28 150.2 146 8.7
Oil Can Boyd BOS 35 272.1 154 5.1 Kevin Gausman TOR 28 168.2 162 8.6
Charlie Hough TEX 34 250.1 141 5.1 Shane Smith CHW 25 125.1 118 8.5
Walt Terrell DET 34 229 130 5.1 Sean Burke CHW 20 117.2 110 8.4
Tom Seaver CHW 33 238.2 134 5.1 Max Fried NYY 29 176 163 8.3
Mark Langston SEA 24 126.2 72 5.1 Trevor Rogers BAL 15 95.2 87 8.2
AL STARTERS 2264 13960 7871 5.1 AL STARTERS 2158 11301.1 10333 8.2
Ron Guidry NYY 33 259 143 5.0 José Soriano LAA 29 163.2 148 8.1
Ed Whitson NYY 30 158.2 89 5.0 Luis Castillo SEA 29 161.1 144 8.0
Mark Gubicza KCR 28 177.1 99 5.0 Michael Lorenzen KCR 23 124.1 110 8.0
Doyle Alexander TOR 36 260.2 142 4.9 Simeon Woods Richardson MIN 19 94.1 84 8.0
Danny Jackson KCR 32 208 114 4.9 Casey Mize DET 24 125.2 110 7.9
Frank Wills SEA 18 123 67 4.9 JP Sears ATH 22 111 97 7.9
Frank Viola MIN 36 250.2 135 4.8 Tanner Bibee CLE 28 161.1 139 7.8
Kirk McCaskill CAL 29 189.2 102 4.8 Taj Bradley 2TM 24 126.1 109 7.8
Storm Davis BAL 28 175 93 4.8 Seth Lugo KCR 26 145.1 125 7.7
Al Nipper BOS 25 162 85 4.7 José Berríos TOR 28 154.2 131 7.6
Mike Mason TEX 30 179 92 4.6 Drew Rasmussen TBR 28 139.2 117 7.5
Jim Clancy TOR 23 128.2 66 4.6 Dean Kremer BAL 27 158.1 132 7.5
Burt Hooton TEX 20 124 62 4.5 Patrick Corbin TEX 27 142.1 119 7.5
Mike Smithson MIN 37 257 127 4.4 Lucas Giolito BOS 23 130.1 107 7.4
Chris Codiroli OAK 37 226 111 4.4 Bailey Ober MIN 24 129.1 105 7.3
Pete Vuckovich MIL 22 112.2 55 4.4 Slade Cecconi CLE 20 115.1 94 7.3
Mike Flanagan BAL 15 86 42 4.4 Jeffrey Springs ATH 27 157 126 7.2
Don Sutton 2TM 34 226 107 4.3 Jonathan Cannon CHW 17 98.1 78 7.1
Ray Burris MIL 28 170.1 81 4.3 Luis Severino ATH 26 146.1 114 7.0
Moose Haas MIL 26 161.2 78 4.3 Logan Allen CLE 26 139.1 109 7.0
Dan Petry DET 34 238.2 109 4.1 Noah Cameron KCR 20 113 88 7.0
Charlie Leibrandt KCR 33 237.2 108 4.1 Tyler Anderson LAA 26 136.1 104 6.9
Ken Schrom MIN 26 160.2 74 4.1 Brayan Bello BOS 25 152.2 114 6.7
Bill Swift SEA 21 120.2 55 4.1 Walker Buehler BOS 22 112.1 84 6.7
John Butcher MIN 33 207.2 92 4.0 Logan Evans SEA 15 78.1 58 6.7
Vern Ruhle CLE 16 125 54 3.9 Michael Wacha KCR 28 159 117 6.6
Scott McGregor BAL 34 204 86 3.8 Adrian Houser 2TM 17 101.2 74 6.6
Neal Heaton CLE 33 207.2 82 3.6 Davis Martin CHW 22 127.1 92 6.5
Jimmy Key TOR 32 212.2 85 3.6 Chris Paddack 2TM 27 142.1 98 6.2
Jim Slaton CAL 24 148.1 60 3.6 Emerson Hancock SEA 15 81.1 55 6.1
Don Schulze CLE 18 94.1 37 3.5 Tomoyuki Sugano BAL 27 143.2 96 6.0
Dennis Martínez BAL 31 180 68 3.4 Zack Littell TBR 22 133.1 89 6.0
Jaime Cocanower MIL 15 116.1 44 3.4 Jack Kochanowicz LAA 23 111 72 5.8
Bill Krueger OAK 23 151.1 56 3.3 Kyle Hendricks LAA 27 142.1 89 5.6
Ron Romanick CAL 31 195 64 3.0
Tommy John 2TM 17 86.1 25 2.6
I think it's slightly spooky that the AL Relievers and Starters end up at the exact same place on two sets of data 40 years apart, but there you go. Both years we have 21 starting pitchers who average more Ks per 9 than the average relief pitcher; we then have another 9 starters who strike out more than the average starter (30 altogether); and then the rest of the league.
I have long believed that most of this is because of the hitters - the pure contact hitter has more or less disappeared from the game. Almost everybody is trying to hit the ball over the fence, and willing to regard the additional strikeouts as a price worth paying. That's part of the story, but only part - the power hitters behave differently these days as well. Babe Ruth led the league in striking out five times, but he never fanned more than 93 times in a season. Ted Williams tops out at 64 Ks, when he was a 20 year old rookie. And Joe DiMaggio never struck out more than the 39 times he fanned as 21 year old rookie. So I suspect these fellows just might have changed their approach when they got to two strikes.
You know, the way Bo Bichette does. Bichette, after all, is one of the league's top contact hitters. It boggles my mind that this is an accurate description of someone who has never failed to strike out at least 100 times in a full season. But there we are. Of the 66 qualified AL hitters this season, Bichette - on pace to strike out 103 times this year - ranks 11th as least likely to strike out. And three of the guys ahead of him wear the same uniform (Guerrero, Kirk, Clement.)
Well, hitting has always been hard and I don't think it's getting any easier. Every team uses at least four different pitchers in every game, so hitters are constantly faced with a different set of problems to solve half the time they step into the box. I think the real difference made by all these additional strikeouts comes on defense. More strikeouts means fewer outs required by your defenders. Fewer outs required from your defenders means defense is not as important as it used to be. Quod erat demonstrandum. Is there a flaw in my logic?
And that brings us back to Bo Bichette, who we're generally agreed is a below-average defensive shortstop. I admit, I've never worried about that as much as most people. I watched the New York Yankees win lots of games and lots of championships with Derek Jeter playing shortstop, and I don't think shortstop defense has gotten more important since Captain Intangibles roamed the field. Quite the contrary. Still, even the most casual look at Bichette's defensive numbers is discouraging. Toronto shortstops are dead last in assists and total chances handled, though they're well above average in putouts. But we find something similar with Toronto's second basemen and I think there's a general consensus that Andres Gimenez and Ernie Clement are pretty good defensive players. The same thing happens, albeit at a different level - in this case, it's below average in assists and total chances, and very good indeed on putouts.
I think it's got a lot to do with the pitching. Blue Jays pitchers strike out a lot of batters. This year's group is almost the exact opposite of the 1985 staff, which had one legitimate strikeout pitcher (Stieb), two guys below the league average (Clancy and Alexander) and one guy who was way below the league average (Key.) That's not what this year's crew is like. Only tonight's opposition, the Houston Astros, have struck out more hitters than the 2025 Jays. Jose Berrios is the only starter who fans fewer batters than the average AL starter - and Berrios strikes out more guys than all but one of the entire league's 1985 starters. All the others (including Bieber and Scherzer who haven't made 15 starts) are above the league average. The starters collectively are averaging 8.4 Ks per 9, which is a little above the league average, and the relievers are way over the league average, at 9.9 Ks per 9.
And more strikeouts means fewer outs required by your defenders. And fewer outs required from your defenders means defense is not as important as it used to be. They don't need to make as many plays.
There are some minor factors to toss into the mix. The Blue Jays have a flyball staff that strikes out a lot of batters. Of the 15 AL teams, the Blue Jays staff ranks 14th in the number of balls put in play against them, and 14th in the number of ground balls put in play against them. (And in the specific case of the shortstop - the Blue Jays are 13th in the number of opposition Plate Appearances by RH batters, which has an impact on which direction the ground balls go. And just for good measure, 11 AL teams have had more innings thrown by LH pitchers, which will also affect which direction the ground balls go.
Anyway, that's why I don't worry as much about Bo Bichette's defense as most people do. I don't like it a whole lot either- I just don't worry as much. And I think he just might be working behind the pitching staff best suited to his defensive skill set. Such as it is.
I do hate to speculate about post-season roster decisions with three weeks still left to play. It feels so premature, if not positively dangerous. Tempting fate, and all that. But hey... I've crawled way out on that limb already. I actually said things like "probably" and "most likely." In for a penny, in for a pound, I suppose. So a couple of quick points. Unless there's an injury to an infielder, I very much doubt Kiner-Falefa will be on the post-season roster. So I wouldn't worry about it. I'd worry much more about the potential injury that puts him there. I think the only position player complication would come if Anthony Santander suddenly looks tanned, rested and ready to rock. Which still seems unlikely. but it would really complicate matters.
I have long assumed that if and when the time comes to cut back to four starters (I will hedge these bets til the end!), it would be Eric Lauer and Chris Bassitt who head to the pen. Lauer because he's done it before, as recently as earlier this year (and also because it's very hard to trust Brendon Little and quite impossible to trust any of the other LH relievers.) Bassitt simply because Schneider has said that "Chris does weird well" and suddenly pitching out of the bullpen would be pretty weird for someone who's always been a starter. I note that it's generally believed that what a team wants and needs in a post-season bullpen are guys that can get you a strikeout when you want one. If you cast your gaze back up at the right side of that Data Table, you will notice that the two Jays starters who strike out the most hitters are... (drum roll, if you please) ... Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer.
Late breaking news! Bichette to the IL. Is everyone excited about the improved team defense?
I didn't think so.
Matchups
Tue 12 Sep - Garcia (1-0, 4.50) vs Berrios (9-5, 4.02)
Wed 13 Sep - Alexander (4-1, 3.19) vs Bieber (2-1, 4.15)
Thu 14 Sep - Javier (1-2, 4.43) vs Gausman (9-10, 3.63)
