The Yankees last 13 games are a walk in the park so I think all the pressure is on the Jays in this series. As I mentioned a few weeks ago I hope the jays failure to take advantage of the weak part of their schedule doesn't come back to haunt them but it's looking dicey.

Wanted to do a comp of the Jays vs Yanks, both on this season stats and the projections, both as a comp for this series and a potential playoffs matchup.

I tried my best to make the matchups as logical as possible based all on performance, age, role, pedigree, etc. but it'll never be perfect. think I cam close tho.

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Position Players

This Year's Stats

Projections

The two teams look pretty comparable here both on this year's performances and on the projections. Yanks do have the Judge advantage tho.

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Pitchers

This Years Stats

Projections

This is where it gets a little trickier.

Based on this year's stats the Yanks have a pretty huge advantage in the starting pitching....but that completely disappears in the projections, which actually like Toronto's starters better....and by a solid amount.

Based on this year's stats the two bullpens have actually been pretty comparable.....but the projections like the Yanks' bullpen much better going forward (though they still like the jays' bullpen too).

Fisher up, Tate down.

Judge back to RF tonight.

Winning 2 out of 3 is very important. That would bring the lead to 5 games counting the tiebreaker, with 19 to go, which would give the Jays some wiggle room since the Yankees as mentioned have a cupcake schedule the last 2 weeks. If the Jays lose the series, then it makes their path to the division a lot more difficult. Getting swept would make that path very unlikely.

Let's hope the Jays magic against the Yankees this season continues this weekend.

Expect the Yankees to try to work counts and get the Blue Jays SPs out of the game after 5IP or so.

One key factor for the Blue Jays pitchers will be getting ahead in the count and limiting walks. This will help with preventing runs and avoiding bullpen overexposure to the Yankees hitters.

Easier said than done!

The Blue Jays are a bit more rested than the Yankees. The Blue Jays had a day off to recharge, while the Yankees had to play last night in Houston and then travel back to NYC.

Hopefully we’ll see good Gausman tonight. When he’s been on this season, he’s been very effective.

The Jays have swapped Bassitt and Scherzer's starts. It is to give Max an extra day after his stiff back last time out.

Still no Schneider in the starting lineup. Not optimal.

Remember, the Jays are in 1st right now by 3 games. The pressure is squarely on the Yankees. They play Detroit, then Boston next so the pressure is sky high right now. After that they get an easy coast the final 2 weeks (Minny-Bal-ChiSox-Bal) but this week is tough. Plus Jazz Chisholm is day-to-day with his knees after a few tough slides into him yesterday. 2 of their 4 best in the pen (according to FG) pitched the last 2 days so won't be available tonight most likely (Weaver, Cruz) and the rest of their pen isn't exactly one you count on. The bottom 4 haven't pitched much at all lately (Hill on the 31st, Blackburn on the 2nd, Yarborough hasn't pitched since coming off the IL) so I wonder if they are dealing with nagging injuries there or just the manager doesn't trust any of them. By contrast the Jays use everyone - 5 guys in the last game alone, and now Fisher is back which should help, plus in the past 6 days (listed by FG) 4 different guys got holds, another a save, another a win. Yankees 2 guys with holds, 1 other with a win (Bednar), 1 other with a save (Doval), 2 losses, 2 blown saves. Jays have 2 losses, 1 blown save (Little a loss & BS, Hoffman the other loss plus a save). I'd trust our pen more than theirs right now.

IMO the big question is which version of Gausman do we get - the one who can dominate or the one who struggles to get through 5? Fingers crossed. A win tonight would go a long way to letting us all relax a bit. But worst case, a Yankee sweep, would still leave the Jays tied for 1st (essentially up a game due to the tie breaker), 2 of 3 puts the Jays in a very good position, a Jay sweep and it is WOOHOO!

What an ab by Bo. Playoff atmosphere.

Just a great series of ABs this inning.

Fabulous first inning for Toronto. Three runs scored and very high pitch count (40) for Schlittler. Way to set the tone for the series.

Pretty perfect 1st.

Mess'em up, boys.

That was a fantastic top of the 1st. Schlitter had only given up 2 runs total his last 4 starts.

Gausman to teammates: I got this.

Curious: why doesn’t Gimenez try dropping a bunt down the third base line? McMahon was positioned pretty far from home plate, it looked like. Could have been a good move with a three-run lead and none out.

You can pound a starter into submission with hitting or you can put them through a meat grinder like this. This is special.

A+ Blue Jays offense in innings 1 and 2

Jays are locked in.

You know a hitter is locked in (Bichette in this case) when he takes a nasty 0-2 slider at 92 just down of the zone from Schlittler, eventually hitting a fly ball deep enough to score Springer. Chefs kiss.

Lots of ballgame left, of course.

The only downside is that Yarbrough has owned the Jays over his career.

What is Yarbrough’s likely pitch limit? He hasn’t pitched in the majors in over two months.

Heck of a play by Ernie.

I wonder if we would get a better impression of defensive value if they tried to measure hits prevented instead of just runs.

4 innings, 48 pitches, no walks so far for Gausman. I imagine having a few runs cushion is helping him, as he can be aggressive and not worry about a solo home run or two.

I don't think Yarbrough has a pitch limit.
As long as they are down the priority is to rest the pen.

If the score stays around 5-1, just let Gausman go deep, maybe even 8 or 9 innings. Don’t do the Varland-Yariel-Hoffman crap just because it’s late innings.

Felix also doing some good work in new york city tonight.

clutch True Ace performance tonight.

bravo gaus bravo

Ben Rice can't field any position.

Hopefully the yanks keep trying to force him to tho.

Yeah, I thought Sanchez was as bad as it could get for defense for Yankees C’s but tonight’s display behind the plate is just atrocious.

sweet sweet run diff

you should check out his attempt to field 1B last night.

like not even close.

Beautiful game.

thorough beatdown.

that should settle some nerves.

A nearly flawless game - couldn't have asked for a better outcome to start the series. They are playing with extreme confidence right now... Cam Schlittler looked destroyed when he got pulled in the 2nd inning.

Brilliant game, must be a top three game for the Blue Jays this year in terms of overall performance and significance.

They needed one win in New York minimum: check.

Now go for a win tomorrow.

Excellent execution.
The Yankees were looking for the high fastballs and Gaus kept them looking.

Great game all the way around. Gausman going 8 strong is exactly what was needed.

Must update website banner with Vlad admiring a HT
R in Yankee stadium.

Red Sox rookie starter is getting lit up.

So relevant games...

• Jays beat Yankees - guaranteed to be alone in 1st at the end of the weekend.
• Red Sox losing 5-1 after 3 innings to Arizona
• Astros tied with the Rangers 3-3
• Tigers lose to the White Sox 7-5
• -----
• Jays 3 1/2 (if Boston comes back) or 4 game lead (if BoSox lose) in AL East
• Jays up by 1 1/2 over the Tigers for best record in AL, 3 1/2 or 4 up for best record over Red Sox or Yankees, 4 1/2 or 5 1/2 over Astros pending their result.
• Jay now have 82 wins, thus guaranteed a winning record for 2025.
• Overall in majors Jays now 2nd 4 1/2 behind the Brewers (they won), tied with the Phillies (they won), 1 ahead of the Cubs (they won).
• On the 'oh crap' scale - the Rays are now just 2 out of a playoff slot, probably the last team we want the Jays to face in a playoff series. Rangers & Royals just 1 behind Seattle for the final playoff slot (funny how familiar those 3 sound when it comes to playoffs isn't it?) Cleveland just 2 1/2 out so not dead yet. LAA are 6 1/2 back and extremely unlikely to be a factor yet again.

Love September baseball, when it is meaningful and boy oh boy is it. That was a fun game. Win one of the next 2 and the Yankees lose ground in their final chance to gain ground the easy way (by playing the team they need to catch). Hopefully good Bassitt is on the mound and not the version that drives us nuts.

Red Sox score 4 in the top of the eighth to make it a 1 run game, then give up 4 in the bottom of the 8th. 10-5 DBacks.

Fangraphs has the Jays joining the Brewers and Phillies with 100% odds of making the playoffs.

nice out of town board tonight.

Jays up 4.0gms in the East.

Jays up 1.5gms in the AL.

Jays in 2nd back 4.5gms in MLB.

Jays tie up the Dodgers for 3rd best runs per game in MLB.

Next up is the Brewers in 2nd - they've scored 11 more runs but played one more game.

Aaron Judge is clearly afraid to throw the ball with any effort. I doubt the Yankees can continue playing him in the field.

Such a fun game.

Seattle has the last wild card but lost for the 4th time.

Yankees and Red Sox have a good lead ahead.

The Yankees want both Judge and Stanton in the lineup so they'll have to put up with either Judge's weak arm or Stanton's lack of mobility.

That was a really enjoyable game. I never saw a catcher actually pull a pitch, that was clearly a strike, out of the zone causing it to be called a ball the way Ben Rice did last night.

Not much chatter lately about Rice being a better player than Vladdy.

Yanks have 3 DHs it'll be interesting to see if they keep trying to play all of them at the same time.

I respect overachiever types like Rice (2.3 fWAR and 126 wRC+, 22 HR same as Vladdy, $780k salary), but for sure Vladdy has proved himself to be a significantly more valuable player on both offense and defense.

Those first two innings were some of the best abs I've ever seen. Schlittler (still can't get over that name) was throwing hard and had command and Jays just wouldn't get out. Amazing stat I saw: Kirk and Springer went hitless but in 8 PAs saw 51 pitches between them.

Just an absolutely enormous performance from Gausman. Their entire bullpen is now available for the last two games of this series, and should be relatively fresh for the Astros with another off day Monday.

If the Jays go 11-10 the rest of the way, the Yankees would need to go 16-5 to pass them. Let’s win this series today.

IKF again? Hopefully Clement is okay.

Bassitt has been less HR-prone (1.27 HR/9) than has Scherzer (1.98 and 4 HR allowed in his last two starts). I think both can be successful against the Yankees in this series, but it would be good for Toronto to win today’s game.

Sorry, that should read 1.93 and not 1.98 for Scherzer.

Surprised to see IKF getting a start over Straw and Schneider (with Barger at 3B). If they really don’t want to move Barger around in the field then the roster loses considerable flexibility and, unfortunately, forces IKF into more playing time.

Schneider has some weird lineups sometimes but they seem to work out more often than not. I'd like to see Davis Schneider get some more at bats, though.

Should see both Schneider and Clement against the lefty tomorrow.

Barger isn't looking bad in RF.

Stanton is the only guy who did anything last game and he's on the bench today.

Glevin - I think Buck tripped over Schlittler a few times as well. I could have sworn a couple of times he skipped the first 'h'.

I just don't understand the logic of acquiring a bad player who was DFA'd by a last place team, and starting him in a pennant race over players who have been on the roster all season and have done remarkably well (Schneider, Straw). I think it's established that Schneider and/or the FO don't determine playing time on actual splits, otherwise Clement wouldn't play everyday against RHP among other things, but I'm curious what kind of message it sends to existing players. Losing a rotation spot to Shane Bieber is an easy explanation. Not being given playing time because a guy with a 70 wRC+ on a bad team was acquired as a depth piece in September is a lot less understandable.

SK - I think the logic has to be that they don’t want to move Barger out of RF. I’m not sure why that is (he’s been fine defensively at 3B). If they don’t want to do that then there aren’t any other options. As I said, that reduces roster flexibility and raises some less than ideal lineups if Santander returns.

the elephant in the room remains the fact that Gimenez can't hit a lick, and he is a 100% full time starter.

The Blue Jays could just use Schneider at 2B (at least for favourable matchups) and Gimenez as a late-inning defensive replacement.

Former major league manager Davey Johnson has passed away at age 82.

IKF has been a big zero since he arrived (sorry to say).

getting even that one run across with IKF and Gimenez at the plate I'll consider a win.

OK scratch that comment…he beat it out and the run scored.

It sure feels like Gil has been there for the taking with the more patient approach that the hitters had yesterday rather than today’s aggressive approach - but maybe that’s wrong.

key inning for Bassitt and the Jays here against the top of their order for the 3rd time.

bah Bo that is a very dumb and costly error.

oh phew that is sheer luck. nice.

dammit.

I still approve of that send.

The radio team said they expect the delay to be a little over an hour. Much like I did during Thursday's NFL rain delay, I guess I have time to catch up on Gilmore Girls...

I guess I shouldn't be surprised, but I thought Bo was going to score on that play. He's every bit the 20th percentile sprint speed. Even Vlad probably scores on that.

Also, hoping Bichette is ok. I'm guessing John Schneider is going to thoroughly enjoy penciling IKF into the lineup everyday, but no one else on earth will feel the same, so hopefully Bo doesn't have to miss any time.

I don't like third base coach sends that carry a high chance of injury. For the same reason, I'm not a fan of outfielders running into the wall to make a catch (look at what happened to Taylor Ward the other day).

The meagre reward of a run scored or saved isn't worth the bigger-picture risk to the player and the team.

Bichette's mistake, other than being slow, was not running over Wells once Wells removed Bichette's lane to the plate.

No issue with the send whatsoever. If you’re not confident your 28 year old shortstop can score from 2nd with two out on a soft single into right field (even if he’s been running like a 38 year old all year) well… that’s probably a whole other conversation anyhow. Bellinger made a perfect throw, gotta tip your cap and hope Bichette is okay.

Bichette’s age is irrelevant. He has 20th percentile sprint speed. He’s also one of the best hitters in MLB and he has dealt with some injury issues the last couple of years. You hold him at third because it’s the smart thing to do.

he came into the league running 70-80th percentile. his leg injuries are clearly still impacting his sprint speed.

This is too high leverage a situation to use Varland in.

not to mention Little

The vanishing speed will impact Bo's value as it makes one logical move - to the outfield - less likely. Second, maybe eventually to first is in his future I suspect. With his bat he can still be valuable but can't be here if he ends up at one of those positions soon with Vlad & Gimenez here. Yes, Gimenez could move to SS, but you also have 2 hotshot prospects at SS and Schneider/Clement who both can handle 2B.

So many possibilities but Bo and Vlad limit it as both are limited on defense.

Surprisingly minimal stress from Little there - a sac fly but with 2/3 with 1 out that isn't bad. Not ideal, but acceptable. Safe to say he starts the next inning with 2 more LH batters coming.

I could have sworn I saw Yariel warming up before the rain delay. Not sure why they continuously keep going to Varland in high leverage when he hasn’t been right in weeks. I get wanting to justify a big trade but at some point you have to put winning ahead of optics.

Brutal AB by Gimenez. Have to at least advance the runner.

Varland appears to be the worst bullpen acquisition since Brad Hand. Send him to Buffalo.

They keep going to Varland because everyone has sucked. I mean Yariel had an ERA over 7 in August. Since August 1st, Varland has an XFIP of 2.89 which is second best in Jays bullpen.

Varland is giving up insanely hard contact, that’s not bad luck.

XFIP doesn’t take into account quality of contact. Varland has been way worse than that number suggests. But, I agree, that there aren’t a lot of good options. They should have used Varland in the 9thlast night in mop up duty and Fisher today in med/high leverage.

we better be seeing a bunch of pinch hitters come up after Lukes.

They’re losing because of Vladdy’s error and because the offense is 1/10 with RISP.

IKF saw 4 balls and 1 strike in that AB (the one strike was called a ball).

There was zero sense of urgency in this game. The lack of pinch hitting late in particular was ridiculous. Schneider needs to show some common sense when it comes to the talent on the roster. Davis Schneider and Ty France are better hitters than IKF and Gimenez. Pinch hit and worry about the defense afterwards.

It’s silly to say anyone is playing due to “optics” as the Jays are chasing a division title.

No Kirk start in between two off days. No pinch hitters for IKF or Gimenez in obvious situations in the 7th or 9th inning.

The Jays’ front office and manager treated this one like it was just another game and got exactly the result they deserved for it. If winning isn’t even the top priority for Shatkins and the gang in a pennant race in September, when will it be?

Honestly, it's impressive to break out "Shatkins" when Jays have the second best record in baseball.

Out of Ty France, Andres Gimenez, IKF, Ernie Clement, and Davis Schneider, and including the last 3 seasons, Schneider is actually the worst batter against pitches 97+. France is first, Gimenez second. (I'm very surprised.)

Savant link for the search.

Honestly, it's impressive to break out "Shatkins" when Jays have the second best record in baseball.

That's how he rolls.

Complaining about Kirk getting time off when he's already - with three weeks left on the schedule - blown past his career highs for games and innings caught....

Well, if all you have is a hammer, everything simply needs to be a nail. Whether it's a nail or something else.

Feels like I’ve accidentally stumbled into a Blair and Barker postgame show.

Resting Kirk means he’ll be in good shape to battle Fried tomorrow. The Blue Jays are going to win that game, I think.

Yikes. I really hope the Red Sox series is not meaningful when it comes up. Yesterday all was sunshine and rainbows and today is doom and gloom and icky names for the front office.

I don't know about everyone else but I'm happy to see the team tread water against the chasers.

I'm more skeptical about whether the way the Jays (and Brewers to a lesser degree) will fare in the playoffs. They were in this one and if they get them tomorrow things are golden.

As long as they're ahead the urgency is all on those chasing them. I think we're all not terribly used to this situation.

Joe you make a very good point about the velo splits. It may well be that Davis looks better because they're keeping him away from top velo guys. That might be the split they care about for him.

But i dunno why France wasn't hitting in the 9th.

Gimenez is the tricky one. I thought he had a bunch of good ABs when he first came back. But he’s been terrible since Aug 1 (65 wRC+). I’m not sure what the best plan is going forward. I’d stick with him versus RH’s for a while longer but I think a quicker hook may be in order.

Varland has given up runs in 8 out of his last 10 appearances (counting today). In those 10 games, he has a 12.38 ERA, 17 hits allowed, 4 BB, 9 K, and 2 HR. Fisher's bad stretch wasn't even a quarter of that length and he was demoted. Tommy Nance has been excellent, and Schneider warms someone else the moment Nance throws a pitch because there's no trust there. If the Jays are trying to rationalize a trade by continuing to put Varland in high leverage spots despite the performance, then I think I would prefer that option over them thinking he's legitimately one of their best RP options right now. Maybe they'll end up being right if he turns things around, but he's not passing the eye test, and certainly not the numbers test.

Back in 2015 when young Devon Travis got injured for the year we were left with a gaping hole at 2B in an all-glove no-bat Ryan Goins.

He had a lowly bench-only worthy 85wrc+ that year.

Gimenez is currently at a 72wrc+.

And the extra kick in the nuts is that he's now being accompanied by Falefa's 74wrc+.

To be clear - these numbers aren't even acceptable from a backup catcher.

The best Blue Jays hitters against Fried have been Springer, Clement, Straw, Gimenez and IKF. Mostly small sample sizes.

The rest of the team has been pretty bad against Fried.

Tomorrow’s lineup should be interesting. My guess would be something like:

Springer DH
Clement 3B
Vladdy 1B
Bichette SS
Kirk C
Varsho CF
Schneider LF
Straw RF
Gimenez 2B

Possibly Schneider might do something like use both Clement and IKF (at 3B/2B) tomorrow and leave Gimenez on the bench. The problem with that approach is that Gimenez hit a massive home run off Fried earlier this year — which was probably just Andres running into one, but still hard to ignore.

I think they'll put Davis Schneider in the 2 spot, but otherwise that looks like a reasonable bet for tomorrow's lineup. IKF is awful against LHP so probably not a good idea to start him against an elite LHP. Another option could be to put Schneider at 2B, Springer in LF, and France at 1B to give Vlad a DH day.

FYI to all the doom and gloomers - Jays 1st in AL by 1/2 a game still. Up by 3 on three Yanks, 4 1/2 on Boston. 4 games better than the super-team in LA.

Fried has reverse splits. They might roll the righty lineup out but it isn’t necessarily the prudent move. Hopefully Varsho is starting at least.

the super-team in LA.
br> Finding new ways to lose every day. One out away from a no-hitter, with a three run lead?

Fried xFIP 2025:

vs LHB 3.04
vs RHB 3.70

Fried xFIP career:

vs LHB 3.15
vs RHB 3.45

Bo out of the lineup today. Guess sending him on a collision course at home plate yesterday wasn't the best idea.

If the Jays win today's game with the lineup they are throwing out there, then this team really is the team of destiny.

This does feel like a pivotal game for the Blue Jays, given the Toronto and New York respective strength of remaining schedules. Winning would improve the Blue Jays’ chances of winning the division quite a bit.

Lol sure, let's use a guy's xFIP instead of, you know, his actual career numbers. Let's just normalize back to league average all those HRs he gives up in a HR haven.

Not sending a runner home because you think he might get hurt is certainly a new one, hehe.

Bad time to diss Ben Rice, Jonny.

Judge’s weak arm in RF helping the Blue Jays get back into the game.

so is it time to ask whether Scherzer actually deserves to make the playoffs rotation.

bad throw by volpe but no reason for Rice to come off the bag there.

Yankees gonna be in real tough defensively if they try to squeeze all these DHs into the starting lineup.

The team does not quit.

Clutch RBI double by Vladdy, but that was a massive missed opportunity to add on (runners at second and third, none out, Kirk / Clement / France up).

ok that was impressive stuff from Scherzer to will his way out of that. much better.

Max obviously demanded that he get to face the top of the order again, because it sure looked like they wanted to bring in the bullpen to start this inning.

Let's see what he can do.

I guess the Judge K makes it worth it even with the leadoff walk.

let's see if the bullpen can come through in the bigtime clutch now.

Borucki's dominance vLHP this year probably makes him an upgrade over Fluharty despite being useless vRHP.

The trick with players is to see what they can do - then make sure they get the opportunity to do what they are good at. Avoid the bad stuff as much as possible, but if they are damn good at one thing use them for it. Borucki might make the playoff pen if the team they face has a lot of LH hitters unlikely to be pinch hit for.

well that was absolute nails, Ryan!

welcome back to Toronto.

Sweet! Borucki a damn fine waiver wire pick up. Just earned whatever he is being paid right there with 1 2/3 IP shutting down the heart of the Yankees.

That 2/3 nobody out inability to cash in runners looking pretty huge right now.

Also to a lesser extent, Straw striking out on a 94 FB down the middle with a runner on second and one out T4.

And now Fisher joins in the fun.

Let's go, top of the order.

Borucki and Fisher looked dominant. Refreshing.

helluvan at bat by ernie.

come on France make us like you.

we better not be seeing IKF and Straw hit in the 9th.

not when Bo and Varsho are there waiting.

Inability to get key hits has been a problem but failing to advance runners on second and none out in the past two games has been just as big.

hoffman does not inspire confidence.

phew. solid enough by the hoff.

now please coach use your bench this inning.

agressive hit and run call there but I like it tbh.

frustrating loss. this was a very winnable series.

don't know why the manager felt this was a series he absolutely needed to rest so many guys in.

I'd be quite happy if they never played another day game on the road all year

off day tomorrow too. surely we didn't need to rest everyone this series of all series.

...maybe Bo was really sore.

Too bad we had to witness Straw whiff in a number of important at bats.

Ugly loss in many ways. I don't understand why Jays are so aggressive pinch hitting for Schneider and almost nobody else.

Anyone happy that they went to New York and improved their Run Differential?

I thought not.

With the difference in schedule difficulty I’d guess the Jays are now a toss up to win the division with oddsmakers.

Hazel Mae
@thehazelmae
·
3m
“They were relaying (pitches).. they're good at it. Major League Baseball knows the Yankees are good when they have something. Maybe I'm the only one that's going to say it publicly, but we have to do a better job of making sure we're not giving anything away.”

- John Schneider

It might feel that way, but the Jays are still strong favourites (-220) to win the division.

It's a shame Kirk and Clement couldn't come through in that clutch spot, because a win today very likely would have buried the Yankees.

I hated the hit and run. I'd much rather have seen Gimenez PH or, absent that, a Straw bunt or a Lukes steal.

It's worth remembering that Kirk almost came through in the biggest way possible in that key situation. He hit an opposite field blast down the short RF line that went foul by a few feet at most.

He then hit an opposite field ground ball that would have scored a run had it not been right at Rice.

Clement's attempt to cash a run was more feeble, pulling an away pitch and softly lining out to short.

No clue what that hit and run decision was but you know what would have been great in retrospect after that loss? If Jays didn’t wave the white flag on Saturday in terms of their lineup and pinch hitting decisions and actually tried to win the game.

Despite what this front office may think, some regular season games actually do matter more than others and should be treated accordingly. The Yankees knew that much this weekend.

My concern is that in addition to their other upcoming tough games, the Blue Jays have seven games against TB, and they've always had issues with Tampa. Meanwhile once the Yankees get through this challenging stretch, they'll have three games against the White Sox, three games against the diminished Twins, and six games against the so-so O's.

Fangraphs now gives the Yankees a 29.9% chance of winning the division. That number would have been a lot lower with a Yankees loss today.

uglyone, Kirk couldn’t have possibly survived playing 3 days in a row in between 2 off days in the biggest series of the year. It’s an impossibility.

One silver lining to the schedule: the Blue Jays will play 12 of their remaining 19 games at home, while the Yankees will play 9 of their remaining 19 games at home.

so rest Kirk one game that's fine.

Not sure if the front office is supposed to manage the games from the directors' suite or sack the manager of the first place team in the middle of September.

You'd never know the Jays are STILL in 1st overall in the AL right now reading some of these comments. 2 game lead in AL East with 19 to go (effectively a 3 game lead due to having the tie breaker). How have teams with a 2 game lead done at this stage (September 7th)?

• 2024: Yanks up 1/2 on O's, Yanks won overall
• 2023: Hou up 1/2 on Seattle, Mil 2 over Cubs. Hou won, Mil won
• 2022: Cle 2 over ChiSox & Twins, NYM 1/2 over Atl. Cle won, Mets/Atl tied (Atl had tiebreaker) both out fast (1 win each).
• 2021: Atl 2 over Phi 3 1/2 over NYM, SF 1 over LAD. SF won, Atl won.

So post-COVID we've seen LOTS of 2 game leads or less on Sept 7th and just once did the team in the lead not hold it (tie breaker decided - was just a 1/2 game lead). I like the Jays odds. Just don't talk about 1987 (Jays up 1/2 on the Tigers, lost in the end, just went 13-12 after that date).

Yes, the Yankees have an easier schedule but that is not always a massive factor especially given the next week will be hard on them - hopefully the Jays can gain a game or two during that stretch despite playing Houston & Baltimore. AL East games are always tough even when the other club is having a bad year.

Jay leads after games on September 7th in history....

• 2025 2 games
• 2015 1/2 a game, won
• 1993 1/2 a game, won
• 1992 1 1/2 games, won
• 1991 5 games, won - biggest lead ever for the Jays on September 7th
• 1989 1 1/2 games, won
• 1987 1/2 a game, blew it
• 1985 1 1/2 games, won

2016 they were close, but 1 out. So 6 times they won the division, once blown. This year is the 2nd biggest lead Jays have ever had at this point. As I said before, I like those odds.

not negative about the team's situation right now but i reserve the right to be angry that the team voluntarily chose to start castoff IKF in 2 of 3gms in this crucial series.

Agreed that was an odd choice of the Jays. Lots of ways to avoid that, but Schneider and crew love IKF - we saw lots of that last year. Still, he did well, going 2 for 7 with a double (286/286/429), driving in 2 in his 2 games, the ones the Jays were short on offense. He wasn't the cause of the losses by any stretch. Gimenez on the other hand was 0-8 which didn't help (missed today). Ty France 0-4. Clement 2/7 with 2 doubles, a walk, scored once, RBI once - can't complain. Barger 1 for 8 with 2 walks (weak hit) and a stolen base. Lukes 3 for 6 RBI and walk certainly can't be faulted. Schneider was 0-3 today, seemed odd he didn't get in more, but this was his 4th straight game without a hit (0-9 during that stretch so not given a lot of chances). Straw also 0-4 (0 for his last 6 over 5 games).

Seems Gimenez needs to platoon with someone (IKF or Clement) while Clement is solid. The RH parts of platoons were gathering dust as there was just the 1 LH starter and he was an ace. Gotta suck for guys like Schneider when they are benched so much then come in to face that.

Challenge going forward is to figure out how to best use the parts here. IKF should be no more than a platoon guy, but given Clement's struggles vs RHP he'll probably face a lot of RHP given the Jays seem determined that Barger needs to be left in RF mostly (7 straight in RF only and hitting like crap during that stretch, 611 OPS before today's game (1-1)). Barger's wRC+ is down to 106 now. The guy who was such a key contributor in the summer has collapsed with a 31 sOPS+ the past 28 days. Ugh. Might need to give him some time off.

Over the past month (August 8th to September 7th) Barger is last on the Jays with -0.4 fWAR. Other negatives are IKF (-0.2), Lukes (-0.2), and Loperfido (-0.1). 0's are Heineman & Kennedy. Not good. 2 near everyday guys in Lukes and Barger not producing hurts a lot. On the other side, tops in fWAR are Springer (1.4), Bichette (1.2), Varsho (1.1), and Kirk (1.0) with Vlad at 0.8. Hitting is all or nothing in that stretch. 120+ wRC+ for 9 guys (Springer, Straw(!), Kennedy, Bo, Vlad, Varsho, Kirk, Schneider, France), sub 60 for the rest (Clement, Gimenez, IKF, Lukes, Barger, Loperfido, Heinemann at the bottom with a wRC+ of 16).

So there are issues to be dealt with. Seems Straw & Schneider need more playing time and Lukes & Barger less in RF/LF. Clement & Gimenez need to be platooned more (this has been obvious for months now if not from day one). IKF needs to be the backup he is and used rarely. Similar for France (he is doing well, but Vlad, Springer, Schneider, and Straw are all hitting better than him in the past month and if he is playing one of them is sitting for sure, or you have Schneider at 2B and Springer in the OF).

castoff IKF

Wouldn't "salary dump IKF" be closer to the truth?

With Bo out of the lineup and Ernie playing SS, the alternative to IKF would have been Barger, who's also quite bad vs LHP, in addition to being in an all-around funk lately.

So Sunday, at least, was a good use case for IKF: They didn't have any clearly better options. Saturday was a different matter, unless someone was unavailable.

IKF was elevated from backup to starter due to the Bichette injury, and he entered yesterday’s game with prior success against Fried (albeit in a small sample), so I find it hard to be critical of the decision to start him.

Scherzer has allowed five home runs in his last three starts. Something to ponder as we get closer to October and decisions about postseason rotations. Scherzer still has some strengths, but allowing a key home run (or two) has been an issue in many of his starts. It’s tough to be a SP in your 40s, even if you’re a Hall of Fame talent.

Expanding the timeframe a bit, Scherzer has allowed 1 or 2 home runs in nine of his last ten starts. It’s a real issue for him and the team.

the only reasonable explanation for IKF starting twice in this crucial series is that they think he is much better than he actually is.

Gimenez had an 81 wRC+ in August and he has a -20 wRC+ in September, so his recent numbers weren’t exactly making a strong case for him to start against Fried. As I mentioned upthread, he did have a big home run against Fried earlier this season, though.

They wouldn't even PH for Straw against a righty with Gimenez, so that tells you what the manager thinks of his 2B right now.

Fun fact - Straw has no splits this year - 91wrc+ vs RH and 91wrc+ vs LH.

Plausible R/L Lineup Using 3yr Splits:


1. RF Springer 121wrc+ / RF Springer 101wrc+
2. SS Bichette 115wrc+ / SS Bichette 116wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 140wrc+ / 1B Guerrero 152wrc+
4. DH Santander 116wrc+ / LF Santander 111wrc+
5. 2B Schneider 107wrc+ / 2B Schneider 111wrc+
6. C Alejandro 104wrc+ / C Alejandro 102wrc+
7. CF Varsho 97wrc+ / CF Varsho 102wrc+
8. LF Lukes 108wrc+ / DH France 103wrc+
9. 3B Barger 102wrc+ / 3B Clement 115wrc+

B. UT France 98wrc+ / UT Lukes 81wrc+
B. UT Clement 88wrc+ / UT Barger 56wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 90wrc+ / IF Gimenez 75wrc+
B. C Heineman 91wrc+ / C Heineman 195wrc+

B. OF Straw 76wrc+ / OF Straw 76wrc+
B. UT Falefa 90wrc+ / UT Falefa 64wrc+

I thought the turning point in the game yesterday came when Vlad hit the game-tying double, leaving men on second and third with no outs. Bichette would normally have been next up and I would have liked his chances of getting at least one run in and extending the rally.

Also, on a full count, Judge took a pitch at the bottom of the zone that was called a ball. He would eventually come around to score the winning run. I saw at least 3 similar pitches after that and they were all called strikes.

IKF has started 3 of the last 5 games after Schneider said that this was not going to impact anyone's playing time (paraphrasing) and just giving the club more options as far as pinch running, defense, etc. This was the fear with the IKF pickup. This team valued him at $15M in a market where 1-2 WAR players were signing minor league deals that winter. He's going to play a lot unfortunately. Whether it's Schneider's call or above him is anyone's guess, but this is the player they clearly value, and the main reason he was moved in the first place was likely because the team finished poorly in 2024 and had to duck the luxury tax.

I think the biggest ramification here is what happens when Santander comes back. If Clement is starting, which he likely is, then the only player I see being optioned is Davis Schneider. They'll have a bench of IKF, France, Straw, Lukes, and Heineman, with a lineup of something like Springer-Barger-Vlad-Bo-Varsho-Santander-Kirk-Clement-Gimenez. It's important to note that 2 of Davis' HR's this season were against position players, so his numbers are likely propped up a bit, but that would still be a tough demotion.

Using just this year's splits

vR / vL

1. DH Springer 168 / RF Springer 135
2. 2B Schneider 140 / LF Schneider 124
3. 1B Guerrero 142 / 1B Guerrero 167
4. SS Bichette 130 / SS Bichette 141
5. CF Varsho 162 / 3B Clement 153
6. C Alejandro 126 / C Alejandro 104
7. 3B Barger 114 / DH France 105
8. LF Lukes 104 / LF Lukes 97
9. RF Straw 91 / CF Straw 91

B. UT France 94 / UT Barger 74
B. IF Falefa 87 / IF Falefa 38
B. IF Gimenez 84 / IF Gimenez 37
B. IF Clement 69 / OF Varsho 24
B. C Heineman 106 / C Heineman 194

IKF only played yesterday because Bo was hurt. Anyway, I'd argue that he's kind of a wash vs RHP than Clement anyway. IKF has always had reverse splits. 87 WRC+ vs RHP this year, 84 career. Clement is 69 WRC+ this year and 80 for his career. Clement is better fielder though.

I don't really understand the IKF signing but I still get it more than getting France. He at least gives the team depth and flexibility and cost only a waiver pick instead of talent but like France seems like a backup option just in case. I would have preferred guys who actually fit into a roster. Like, if you're in the playoffs, where do IKF and France play? IKF plays if one of the infielders gets hurt or if Jays need someone to fill in IF after pinch-hitting late in game. France plays if Vlad or Springer are hurt. These are very niche needs. Jays only really pinch hit for a handful of guys and Gimenez maybe only one vs LHP who really should be in big situations. The problem with pinch hitting France is then he has to come out of game anyway because he only plays 1B so you lose 2 guys to pinch hit. IKF is probably 26th guy so off roster for playoffs anyway and if Santander comes back, it's impossible to see where France fits in at all.

If they have committed to the idea that they don't want to move Barger back and forth between RF/3B (that's really the only logical explanation for the roster on Sat) and they've been very reluctant to play Schneider at 2B, then you're pretty much stuck with a steady diet of Gimenez, IKF and Clement. I don't understand it (Barger's been fine defensively at 3B and his hitting tailed off badly after he's was ensconced in RF) but they must have their reasons. Pray that Bichette will be back in the saddle on Tuesday.

I hope I’m wrong about Schneider being optioned. I really hope I’m wrong. It would be an absurd decision for the sake of keeping IKF. I just don’t see where else they go, assuming everyone else is healthy. They won’t drop Straw. France is their only backup 1B. They just absorbed the remainder of IKF’s contract (some of which they are paying anyway) so I can’t imagine they drop him 2 weeks later. That leaves Schneider and Lukes as players with options.

To me the easy decision is drop IKF and use Clement in a utility IF role but that’s not happening. If Clement starts, which he will, then IKF is their only backup infielder since they don’t use Davis there anymore. It’s a self created problem. They finally seemed to develop a competent 3B but they want to play him in RF so that rich man’s IKF + the real IKF can both have roles on this team.

Then again maybe they surprise me and drop France, which would also be justifiable. I’ll have to see it to believe it, though.

Let's just hope they actually have a decision to make. Santander hasn't started his rehab yet, and the fact that Bo couldn't PH yesterday does not bode well.

Agreed Nigel - it is clear they see Schneider and Barger as OF who can play the IF when needed, not as 2B/3B who can play regularly there. Just 100 innings at 2B for Schneider this year, 0's across the board (league average) at FG, -1 DRS in LF. Barger 483 innings at 3B +1 DRS, -1 OAA; in RF 406 Inn -4 DRS +5 rARM, -3 OAA. Seems Barger isn't great anywhere but is a bit better at 3B than RF but his arm is killer good in RF - only Lukes has an rARM of +5 on the Jays in 380 more innings. In the majors in RF he is #1 for rARM, tied with Mike Yastrzemski (965 inn) - Bellinger and Kwan have +7 arms overall in the OF, +6 for Nolan Jones - all have 800+ innings played though. So I can see why they want him in RF. A shame there is nothing measuring arm strength in the 80's as I'd love to see what Barfield's rating would've been (his arm was a legend).

So for Barger there is a clear reason for putting him in RF - his excellent arm strength, and reasons not to - everything else he does out there. I suspect Barger will develop into a fine RF over time, but isn't there yet. Schneider is OK at 2B, OK in LF. But Gimenez and Clement are both 'WOW' for defense at 2B. I'd try to platoon those 2 at 2B and put Barger at 3B for the stretch drive to maximize defense/offense net contribution going forward with IKF rarely used, Barger replaced when it is tight and late for defense (or moved to RF). But I don't run the team, probably for the best I don't although pay me a few mil and I'd be happy to :)

Ben Clemens on Bichette (Fangraphs chat):

“2:42
Thomas: What contract do you think Bichette gets? Sportsnet did an article a while back that put the guess at 8 years, $216 million, which sounds like a reasonable starting point

2:42
Ben Clemens: man, that’s a lot of money

2:43
Ben Clemens: uhhhhh…. I mean I guess it’s about right though

2:43
Ben Clemens: looking through here and trying to slap some comps on him, I don’t think tha’ts super far off

2:43
Ben Clemens: I’m definitely worried that his baserunning has been so bad this year

2:43
Ben Clemens: in conjunction with his defense. but eh, he’s a really good hitter”

If this front office can send down their best RP (by WAR) all season for no real reason at all while the bullpen was struggling, sending Schneider down for Santander isn’t a step too far at all.

Bo ranks 16th of 134 qualified players in baseball this year with his 132wRC+, and looks to be finishing stronger than that.

His career 122wrc+ ranks him 43rd of all 225 qualified active players.

If you ignore his half year off year last year, he's at a career 127wrc+.

He's posting the best average of his career at .311, even though his .342babip is amongst his career lows (though right around his career .339). He's also posting the best walk rate of his career at 6.4% and by far the best strikeout rate of his career at 14.5%. His ISO power is at .172 just a tick below his career .175. He's posting the lowest swing rate and lowest swinging strike rate of his career, both by a good margin. His 22.1ld% is a tick below his career 22.6%, and he's posting the best hard hit rate of his career at 37.4% and the 2nd lowest soft hit rate of his career at 12.3.

His .311avg is a tick above his expected .307xavg while his .483slg is a tick below his expected .489xslg, resulting in a .361woba being a tick below his expected .364xwoba, which is the best xwoba of his career by a healthy margin.

if if if if if. Use full stats and full periods like front offices will when they plan to make him offers. If Bassitt pitched away like he did at home .... if Vladdy changes his launch angle slightly he'd have more HR....if is a preface for "Since it doesn't add up let me find another avenue to prove my point."

Bo's an elite bat at best with terrible baserunning, bad defense and streakiness nobody envies and he's had some concerning injuries to justify a massive contract. That's my opinion. I think a team that signs him will overpay and be okay with it because they can "hide" his bad qualities to get his bat while also being okay with writing off his down years as he ages should that happen.

I doubt anyone is going to pay him as a consistently top end offensive SS because of his poor performances from time to time. You can't ignore his half year off last year.

Just to add on, I don't think anyone will pay him like Turner, Correa or Lindor (relative to their free agent years, so adjust for inflation). He will get paid like Dansby Swanson or Trevor Story relative to market value.

What does that mean, probably a biogger contract than Willy Adames and smaller contract Corey Seager... 23 million (on a long 10+ year deal) or 28 million on a 7 year deal or less.

And yes I would sign him to either version of that contract.

Bo is now on the IL with no clear timeline to return. It's possible that he's played his last game with us, although that's probably worst-case scenario. Santander felt some back tightness and is having his rehab pushed back. Bad news indeed...

Correction: Willy Adames is averaging 26 million a year so I predict Bo will be right around that with him being penalized for defence and baserunning.

"if if if if. Use full stats and full periods like front offices will when they plan to make him offer."

I used one if in that post, and it was for a short minor (but relevant) point.

For Bo's contract I'm expecting anyone giving him a longer term deal to price it as SS for 1 or 2 years, then 2B for 2 or 3 more, then 1B or LF for the rest. His bat can play at 1B/DH but not at a $40+ mil level (aka Vlad type level), but if he is a SS then he could be worth that much so $40 x 2, $30 x 2, $20 x 3 = 7 years $200 mil is my guess. Get some competition (LAD/NYY ideally for Bo) and that could climb to $250+ mil. If he gets it more power to him. I'd prefer the Jays stick to a shorter term (2-3 years with 5 the absolute max - $100 for 3 let say) which I doubt he'd take, but would not sound insulting.