Ace Rotations We Have Known

Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 03:50 PM EST

Contributed by: Magpie

Four times in franchise history, the Blue Jays have had the best starting pitching in the American League. I propose to look at those four starting rotations.

1985
 
Original starters: Dave Stieb, Doyle Alexander, Jimmy Key, Luis Leal. Stieb, Alexander, and Leal, along with Jim Clancy and Jim Gott, had formed the 1984 rotation which was about fifth best in the league.

The 1985 starters went 64-42, 3.32, and were the best in the league by a comfortable margin. Only two men were in the rotation from Game 1 through Game 161: Dave Stieb and Doyle Alexander. Alexander was solid, and Stieb pitched better than any starter not named Clemens in franchise history. While Bobby Cox and pitching coach Al Widmar were among the last men in the majors to use a four man rotation, by 1983 they too had joined the rest of the world in using a five man rotation. However, it wasn't uncommon at the time for teams to begin the season with just four starters - among its other charms, April baseball typically features a multitude of off-days and rainouts. It's sometimes easier to keep your rotation in sync under these circumstances if you're only using four starters.

So the Jays began the year with Stieb, Alexander, Key, and Leal. This was also partially because Jim Clancy had gone down with an appendectomy at the end of spring training. Clancy joined the rotation at the end of April, and  Key spent the first few weeks of May as a swingman, making 2 starts and 3 relief appearances. By the end of the month, however, Key was in the rotation to stay. 

After a strong first month (2-1, 3.13), Luis Leal simply went off the cliff - he went 1-5, 8.07 over his next 10 starts and was sent to Syracuse, never to appear in the majors again. His rotation spot was taken by Tom Filer, who went 7-0 3.63 in 9 starts through the end of August. Filer's first start was the famous Buck Martinez game, when he broke his leg making two putouts at home on the same play.

Another injury knocked Clancy out of action through August - Ron Musselman filled in when a fifth starter was required. Clancy returned to action just as Filer got hurt, so rookie Steve Davis became the fifth starter in September.

Final Numbers

                   GS   CG   SHO    IP     W    L    ERA     H     R     ER    HR    BB   IBB   SO   HBP  BK   WP    BF     WHIP

Dave Stieb    36    8    2   265.0   14   13    2.48   206    89    73    22    96    3   167    9    1    4   1087    1.14
Doyle Alexander    36    6    1   260.2   17   10    3.45   268   105   100    28    67    0   142    6    0    9   1090    1.29
Jimmy Key    32    3    0   206.1   13    6    3.10   186    77    71    22    49    1    82    2    1    5    835    1.14
Jim Clancy    23    1    0   128.2    9    6    3.78   117    54    54    15    37    0    66    0    0    2    527    1.20
Luis Leal     14    0    0    66.1    3    5    5.70    80    45    42    13    22    2    33    3    1    3    296    1.54
Tom Filer    9    0    0    44.2    7    0    3.63    34    18    18     6    16    0    22    0    1    0    175    1.12
Steve Davis    5    0    0    19.0    1    1    4.74    19    14    10    4    12    0    17    0    0    0     85    1.63
Ron Musselman    4    0    0    15.2    0    0    2.87    15    7     5    0     7    0     7    0    0    1     69    1.40
Dennis Lamp    1    0    0    5.0    0    0    3.60     4    2     2    1     0    0    3    0    0    0    19    0.80
John Cerutti    1    0    0    4.0    0    1    0.00     2    3     0     0     3    0     3    1    0    2    19    1.25

1985 Starters    161  18    3  1015.1   64   42    3.32   931   414   375   111   309    6   542   21    4   26   4202    1.22

1987

Original starters: Jimmy Key, Jim Clancy, Joe Johnson, Dave Stieb. The 1986 rotation had been Stieb,  Key, Clancy, and Doyle Alexander, with John Cerutti working as a swingman. Joe Johnson replaced Alexander in mid-season. They were about sixth best in the league.

The 1987 starters gave up the fewest runs per game of any starting staff; still,  I'm not sure they really qualify as the best rotation in the league that year. The Toronto starters went 62-44, 3.89 in 969.1 IP.  But Kansas City's starters posted a better ERA (3.80 to 3.89) and pitched 110 more innings. (The KC bullpen stunk, which is why Toronto's team ERA of 3.74 led the league.) How, you ask, did the Royals starters allow more runs per game? Because they gave up 61 unearned runs (Toronto's starters allowed just 39). We could blame on Buddy Biancalana, but in truth the 1987 Royals didn't really make a lot of errors. It's just that the 1987 Jays gave up fewer unearned runs - only 50 - than any team in the league.

By 1987, Jimy Williams was in charge. Like Cox in 1985, Williams began the year with a four man rotation: Jimmy Key, Jim Clancy, Joe Johnson, and Dave Stieb. Key and Clancy would provide quality work all season long. Stieb, coming off his disastrous 1986 season, got off to a terrible start in 1987, and was 0-2, 7.43 on May 2. He then righted himself and pitched very well indeed (13-3, 3.07) through mid-August before struggling again through the last six weeks of the season.

Beyond that, all was chaos. It was a Jimy Williams team, after all.

Duane Ward started the season in the bullpen. In mid April, he became the team's first fifth starter. He got hammered, and was immediately sent to the minors, not to be seen again until September. In mid-May, John Cerutti moved from the bullpen to the swingman role. Cerutti made 6 starts and 5 relief appearances from May 12 through June 19. Jeff Musselman, having a fine rookie season in the bullpen, came out of the pen to make one fine start on June 14, and then returned to the pen for the rest of the season. It was at this time that the team gave up on Johnson, and Cerutti moved into the rotation full-time. More or less (Jimy Williams, remember.)

A two month audition for the fifth starter then unfolded. Dave Wells came up to make his major league debut, and after two lousy starts he went back to Syracuse. Rule 5 pick Jose Nunez, who'd been pitching garbage relief, was the next candidate and he fanned 11 Royals in his first major league start. This got him five more chances, but he couldn't make it through five innings in any of them. By now, the team was desperate enough to try 48 year old Phil Niekro, just released by the last place Indians. Niekro made three starts, the team lost all three, and Niekro and was released. Finally,  Gillick traded for Mike Flanagan, which solved a lot of problems.

By September, Williams had three starters he believed in  (Key, Clancy, and Flanagan) and two guys he wasn't sure about (Stieb and Cerutti). He began the month with Stieb as his fourth starter and Cerutti again working as a kind of swingman. In the middle of the month, Williams sent Stieb to the bullpen for ten days, with Cerutti geting his starts; then he reversed course, with Stieb rejoining the rotation and Cerutti pitching exclusively in relief.

Final Numbers

                   GS   CG   SHO    IP     W    L    ERA     H     R     ER    HR    BB   IBB   SO    HBP  BK   WP    BF     WHIP

Jimmy Key    36    8    1   261.0   17    8    2.76   210    93    80    24    66    6    161   2    5    8   1033    1.06
Jim Clancy    37    5    1   241.1   15   11    3.54   234   103    95    24    80    5    180   1    1   12   1008    1.30
Dave Stieb    31    3    1   178.2   13    9    4.18   158    91    83    16    83    3    110   7    0    4    761    1.35
John Cerutti    21    2    0   108.0    9    4    4.75   109    58    57    25    38    0     59    1    0    2    459    1.36
Joe Johnson    14    0    0   66.2    3    5    5.13    77    44    38    10    18    0     27    2    0    3    289    1.43
Mike Flanagan    7    0    0   49.1    3    2    2.37    46    15    13    3    15    3     43    0    0    2    209    1.24
Jose Nunez    9    0    0   41.1    2    1    5.88    43    28    27    3    22    2    42    0    1    2    187    1.57
Phil Niekro    3    0    0   12.0    0    2    8.25    15    11    11    4    7    0     7    0    1    1    56    1.83
David Wells    2    0    0    5.1    0    2   15.19    15    9    9    0    4    0    6    0    0    3    34    3.56
Jeff Musselman    1    0    0    4.2    0    0    1.93    3    1    1    0    1    0    1    0    1    0    18    0.86
Duane Ward    1    0    0    1.0    0    0   45.00    5    5    5    0    1    0     0    0    0    0    8    6.00

1987 Starters    162   18    3  969.1   62   44    3.89   915   458   419   109   335   19    636   13    9   37   4062    1.29



1991

Original starters: Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, David Wells, Todd Stottlemyre, Denis Boucher. The 1990 rotation had been quite good, about third best in the league - it was Stieb, Key, Stottlemyre, Flanagan, and Cerutti to start the year. Flanagan was released and David Wells eventually came in from the bullpen to replace him. After a very fine 1989 season, Cerutti slipped badly and spent some time in the pen.

The 1991 staff led the league in ERA and runs allowed per game; the starters also led the league in both departments. Toronto's starters went 67-50, 3.49 in 1014.2 IP, comfortably better than the the Angels.

Cito Gaston was the manager by 1991 - his staff the previous year had set a major league record for fewest complete games (6) in a season. (Yeah, that one's been broken.) Gaston went with a five man rotation from Opening Day, and those five men were Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, Todd Stottlemyre, David Wells, and Denis Boucher.

Key and Stottlemyre would be the two constants in the 1991 rotation, with neither missing a turn.

The adjustments began in May. Denis Boucher wasn't exactly bad - after his May 15 start he was 0-3, 4.58 in his 7 starts. But with the benefit of hindsight it's become pretty clear that if Cito Gaston thinks a guy can't cut it as a starter - we're looking at a guy who can't cut it as a starter. Certainly, Denis Boucher would not go on to prove Gaston wrong. Boucher was sent to Syracuse and veteran reliever Jim Acker took that rotation spot for a few weeks. There were much, much bigger concerns for the team to deal with than the fifth starter anyway.

At age 33, Dave Stieb was still the team's clear ace - he'd gone 51-22, 3.11 over the previous three seasons and was pitching well early in 1991. He'd hurt himself falling over first base against Oakland on May 22 and was given a few extra days off. Then Stieb was scratched from his June 1 start against the Angels (reliever Willie Fraser filled in and got shelled.) Then Stieb went on the DL for the first time in his thirteen seasons. It was his shoulder at first, and then he developed back problems that would require season ending surgery. He would never be the same again. A hard throwing 24 year old named Juan Guzman replaced him and made his major league debut on June 7. Guzman lost his first two starts, allowing 9 runs and 6 BB in 8.2 IP, and seemed on the verge of being sent back down.

Meanwhile, after a fine first outing, Acker had been hammered in three consecutive starts. Gaston sent him back to the pen and tried another reliever, rookie Mike Timlin. Timlin gave him a fine first start, and then he too got beat up in consecutive outings. Key, Stottlemyre, and Wells were keeping the staff afloat, but they badly needed some help.

They got it. Two things happened. First, in his third major league start, Juan Guzman quite suddenly figured it all out. It was like he arrived all at once - in his next 20 more starts Guzman went 10-0, 2.62. That filled one trouble spot. And to fill the other one, Gillick traded Boucher and two young outfielders (Glenallen Hill and Mark Whiten) to Cleveland for Tom Candiotti and Turner Ward.

And that settled things. Candiotti, Guzman, and Key were all outstanding, and it's extremely difficult to determine which of the three was the team's best starter. Todd Stottlemyre was a solid starter all year long.  David Wells was a little different. Wells had been a reliever in the majors until mid-way through the previous season. He had never spent a full season in the majors as a starter, and this wouldn't turn out to be the first time. Through July 24, Wells had been outstanding (12-4, 2.73) but then he started struggling. He went 2-6, 6.52 over his next 8 starts. Gaston moved Wells to the bullpen for the last three weeks of the season and went with a four man rotation down the stretch.

Final Numbers

                   GS   CG   SHO    IP     W    L    ERA     H     R     ER    HR    BB   IBB    SO   HBP  BK   WP     BF    WHIP

Todd Stottlemyre   34    1    0  219.0   15    8    3.78   194    97    92    21    75    3    116   12    0    4    921    1.23
Jimmy Key    33    2    2  209.1   16   12    3.05   207    84    71    12    44    3    125    3    0    1    877    1.20
David Wells    28    2    0   180.0   14   10    3.75   169    81    75    23    45    1    96    2    3    9    740    1.19
Juan Guzman    23    1    0   138.2   10    3    2.99    98    53    46    6    66    0    123    4    0   10    574    1.18
Tom Candiotti    19    3    0   129.2    6    7    2.98   114    47    43     6    45    1     81    4    0    5    539    1.23
Dave Stieb    9    1    0   59.2    4    3    3.17    52    22    21     4    23    0    29    2    0    0    244    1.26
Denis Boucher    7    0    0   35.1    0    3    4.58    39    20    18    6    16    1    16    2    4    0    162    1.56
Jim Acker    4    0    0   20.1    1    2    7.52    16    19    17    6    15    0     7    0    0    0    89    1.53
Mike Timlin    3    0    0   14.2    1    1    1.84    14    3    3    0    7    0    10    0    0    0    63    1.43
Pat Hentgen    1    0    0    5.0    0    0    1.80    3    1    1   1     1    0    2    1    0    0    19    0.80
Willie Fraser    1    0    0    3.0    0    1   18.00    7    6    6     1     3    0     1    2    0    1    22    3.33

1991 Starters    162   10    2  1014.2   67   50    3.49   913   433   393    86   340    9    606   32    7   30   4250    1.24



2008

Original starters: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch.. That's the way they had ended the 2007 season, which (along with Halladay and Burnett) had featured Tomo Ohka, Josh Towers, and Gustavo Chacin in the rotation at the start of the year. After the brief but unforgettable Zambrano Era, the three newbies (Marcum, McGowan, and Litsch) came along to save the day. Too late to save the season....

The 2008 staff led the league in runs allowed per game and ERA; the team's starters also led the league in both departments. They went 71-53, 3.72 in 1021.2 IP; next best was Tampa Bay (66-48, 3.95 in 973.1 IP.)

John Gibbons opened with a five man rotation of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch. Halladay and Burnett would remain in the rotation through the end of the season, but some odd circumstances saw both of them called upon to make emergency relief appearances early in the season. An extra inning marathon saw Burnett pressed into action as a reliever, so David Purcey was called up for a day to make his major league debut. A few weeks later, a lengthy rain delay took Shaun Marcum out of a game after just one inning, and Roy Halladay was called on to work in relief. Again Purcey came up to make a spot start, and again was returned to AAA immediately afterwards. Aside from those blips, the same five starters stayed in place for the first three months of the season.

By this time, the team's utterly dysfunctional offense had cost John Gibbons his job. Cito Gaston was back in the dugout, just as the young starters began breaking down. None of Marcum, McGowan, and Litsch had spent a full season in a major league rotation, and none of them would quite manage it this year. Marcum went on the shelf first, at the same time Gaston took over. His rotation spot was filled by journeyman John Parrish, called up from Syracuse.

Dustin McGowan was next to fall. On June 10, McGowan threw a career high 125 pitches in a CG win against Seattle. He started struggling after that, going 1-3, 5.81 in his next 5 starts before hitting the DL on July 10. An MRI revealed he had a torn rotator cuff. It turned out he'd had that injury since 2007 but he needed surgery anyway to repair a frayed labrum, and would miss the next three years. At least Shaun Marcum was coming back at this very moment to take McGowan's place.

At the same time, the team optioned Jesse Litsch to the minors to "make some adjustments" in the words of the GM. After a very strong start to his season, Litsch had been struggling badly for two months (1-6, 6.12 since June 1). David Purcey took his spot in the rotation.

Meanwhile, the team decided they'd seen enough of John Parrish in the rotation, and Scott Richmond got a brief audition in the rotation, making three extremely similar starts until Litsch returned in mid August.

At which point, the team made the odd decision to option Shaun Marcum to Syracuse. Marcum had indeed struggled in his first three starts since returning from the DL but he had seemed to turn things around, rolling off three fine victories in succession. But he got beat up on August 22 (3.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER) and was in AAA the next day, with his GM saying "we're going to give him a couple starts down at Triple-A to just see if he can get his mechanics back together." Yeah, right. If you believe that's the real reason Marcum was sent to AAA, there's a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to tell you about. John Parrish made one start while Marcum was gone; Marcum returned on September 5, made 2 very fine starts, and then tore his UCL which would knock him out of the rotation until 2010. Scott Richmond filled in the rest of the way.

Final Numbers

                   GS   CG   SHO    IP     W    L    ERA     H     R     ER    HR    BB   IBB    SO   HBP  BK   WP    BF    WHIP

Roy Halladay    33    9    2   243.2   20   11    2.81   219    88    76    18    39    3    204   12    0    4    980    1.06
A.J. Burnett    34    1    0   220.1   18    9    4.00   208   107    98    19    85    2    229    9    2   10    950    1.33
Jesse Litsch    28    2    2   173.0   13    9    3.54   173    77    68    19    39    2     95    8    0   4    722    1.23
Shaun Marcum    25    0    0   151.1    9    7    3.39   126    60    57    21    50    2    123    8    0    3    630    1.16
Dustin McGowan    19    1    0   111.1    6    7    4.37   115    60    54     9    38    1    85    5    0    5    474    1.37
David  Purcey    12    1    0    65.0    3    6    5.54    67    41    40     9    29    0    58    4    0    3    289    1.48
John Parrish    6    0    0    30.0    1    1    5.10    37    17    17     4     8    0    14    0    0    4    130    1.50
Scott Richmond    5    1    1    27.0    1    3    4.00    32    12    12    2     2    0    20    2    0    0    113    1.26

2008 Starters     162   15    5  1021.2   71   53    3.72   977   462   422   101   290   10    828   48    2   33   4288    1.24


What's really striking about these four starting staffs is how messed up they were. Three of the teams left the gate with guys who turned out to be bad enough that they would need to be dropped from the rotation (Leal in 1985, Johnson in 1987, Boucher in 1991.) None would ever pitch for Toronto again - two men would never pitch in the majors again. The other team lost two of their five starters to injuries that would cost each man all of the following season.

Two starters from these four teams, one of whom was arguably the best pitcher in franchise history, suffered catastrophic career-changing injuries.

And these were the best starting rotations in the league.

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