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Four times in franchise history, the Blue Jays have had the best starting pitching in the American League. I propose to look at those four starting rotations.

1985
 
Original starters: Dave Stieb, Doyle Alexander, Jimmy Key, Luis Leal. Stieb, Alexander, and Leal, along with Jim Clancy and Jim Gott, had formed the 1984 rotation which was about fifth best in the league.

The 1985 starters went 64-42, 3.32, and were the best in the league by a comfortable margin. Only two men were in the rotation from Game 1 through Game 161: Dave Stieb and Doyle Alexander. Alexander was solid, and Stieb pitched better than any starter not named Clemens in franchise history. While Bobby Cox and pitching coach Al Widmar were among the last men in the majors to use a four man rotation, by 1983 they too had joined the rest of the world in using a five man rotation. However, it wasn't uncommon at the time for teams to begin the season with just four starters - among its other charms, April baseball typically features a multitude of off-days and rainouts. It's sometimes easier to keep your rotation in sync under these circumstances if you're only using four starters.

So the Jays began the year with Stieb, Alexander, Key, and Leal. This was also partially because Jim Clancy had gone down with an appendectomy at the end of spring training. Clancy joined the rotation at the end of April, and  Key spent the first few weeks of May as a swingman, making 2 starts and 3 relief appearances. By the end of the month, however, Key was in the rotation to stay. 

After a strong first month (2-1, 3.13), Luis Leal simply went off the cliff - he went 1-5, 8.07 over his next 10 starts and was sent to Syracuse, never to appear in the majors again. His rotation spot was taken by Tom Filer, who went 7-0 3.63 in 9 starts through the end of August. Filer's first start was the famous Buck Martinez game, when he broke his leg making two putouts at home on the same play.

Another injury knocked Clancy out of action through August - Ron Musselman filled in when a fifth starter was required. Clancy returned to action just as Filer got hurt, so rookie Steve Davis became the fifth starter in September.

Final Numbers

                   GS   CG   SHO    IP     W    L    ERA     H     R     ER    HR    BB   IBB   SO   HBP  BK   WP    BF     WHIP

Dave Stieb    36    8    2   265.0   14   13    2.48   206    89    73    22    96    3   167    9    1    4   1087    1.14
Doyle Alexander    36    6    1   260.2   17   10    3.45   268   105   100    28    67    0   142    6    0    9   1090    1.29
Jimmy Key    32    3    0   206.1   13    6    3.10   186    77    71    22    49    1    82    2    1    5    835    1.14
Jim Clancy    23    1    0   128.2    9    6    3.78   117    54    54    15    37    0    66    0    0    2    527    1.20
Luis Leal     14    0    0    66.1    3    5    5.70    80    45    42    13    22    2    33    3    1    3    296    1.54
Tom Filer    9    0    0    44.2    7    0    3.63    34    18    18     6    16    0    22    0    1    0    175    1.12
Steve Davis    5    0    0    19.0    1    1    4.74    19    14    10    4    12    0    17    0    0    0     85    1.63
Ron Musselman    4    0    0    15.2    0    0    2.87    15    7     5    0     7    0     7    0    0    1     69    1.40
Dennis Lamp    1    0    0    5.0    0    0    3.60     4    2     2    1     0    0    3    0    0    0    19    0.80
John Cerutti    1    0    0    4.0    0    1    0.00     2    3     0     0     3    0     3    1    0    2    19    1.25

1985 Starters    161  18    3  1015.1   64   42    3.32   931   414   375   111   309    6   542   21    4   26   4202    1.22

1987

Original starters: Jimmy Key, Jim Clancy, Joe Johnson, Dave Stieb. The 1986 rotation had been Stieb,  Key, Clancy, and Doyle Alexander, with John Cerutti working as a swingman. Joe Johnson replaced Alexander in mid-season. They were about sixth best in the league.

The 1987 starters gave up the fewest runs per game of any starting staff; still,  I'm not sure they really qualify as the best rotation in the league that year. The Toronto starters went 62-44, 3.89 in 969.1 IP.  But Kansas City's starters posted a better ERA (3.80 to 3.89) and pitched 110 more innings. (The KC bullpen stunk, which is why Toronto's team ERA of 3.74 led the league.) How, you ask, did the Royals starters allow more runs per game? Because they gave up 61 unearned runs (Toronto's starters allowed just 39). We could blame on Buddy Biancalana, but in truth the 1987 Royals didn't really make a lot of errors. It's just that the 1987 Jays gave up fewer unearned runs - only 50 - than any team in the league.

By 1987, Jimy Williams was in charge. Like Cox in 1985, Williams began the year with a four man rotation: Jimmy Key, Jim Clancy, Joe Johnson, and Dave Stieb. Key and Clancy would provide quality work all season long. Stieb, coming off his disastrous 1986 season, got off to a terrible start in 1987, and was 0-2, 7.43 on May 2. He then righted himself and pitched very well indeed (13-3, 3.07) through mid-August before struggling again through the last six weeks of the season.

Beyond that, all was chaos. It was a Jimy Williams team, after all.

Duane Ward started the season in the bullpen. In mid April, he became the team's first fifth starter. He got hammered, and was immediately sent to the minors, not to be seen again until September. In mid-May, John Cerutti moved from the bullpen to the swingman role. Cerutti made 6 starts and 5 relief appearances from May 12 through June 19. Jeff Musselman, having a fine rookie season in the bullpen, came out of the pen to make one fine start on June 14, and then returned to the pen for the rest of the season. It was at this time that the team gave up on Johnson, and Cerutti moved into the rotation full-time. More or less (Jimy Williams, remember.)

A two month audition for the fifth starter then unfolded. Dave Wells came up to make his major league debut, and after two lousy starts he went back to Syracuse. Rule 5 pick Jose Nunez, who'd been pitching garbage relief, was the next candidate and he fanned 11 Royals in his first major league start. This got him five more chances, but he couldn't make it through five innings in any of them. By now, the team was desperate enough to try 48 year old Phil Niekro, just released by the last place Indians. Niekro made three starts, the team lost all three, and Niekro and was released. Finally,  Gillick traded for Mike Flanagan, which solved a lot of problems.

By September, Williams had three starters he believed in  (Key, Clancy, and Flanagan) and two guys he wasn't sure about (Stieb and Cerutti). He began the month with Stieb as his fourth starter and Cerutti again working as a kind of swingman. In the middle of the month, Williams sent Stieb to the bullpen for ten days, with Cerutti geting his starts; then he reversed course, with Stieb rejoining the rotation and Cerutti pitching exclusively in relief.

Final Numbers

                   GS   CG   SHO    IP     W    L    ERA     H     R     ER    HR    BB   IBB   SO    HBP  BK   WP    BF     WHIP

Jimmy Key    36    8    1   261.0   17    8    2.76   210    93    80    24    66    6    161   2    5    8   1033    1.06
Jim Clancy    37    5    1   241.1   15   11    3.54   234   103    95    24    80    5    180   1    1   12   1008    1.30
Dave Stieb    31    3    1   178.2   13    9    4.18   158    91    83    16    83    3    110   7    0    4    761    1.35
John Cerutti    21    2    0   108.0    9    4    4.75   109    58    57    25    38    0     59    1    0    2    459    1.36
Joe Johnson    14    0    0   66.2    3    5    5.13    77    44    38    10    18    0     27    2    0    3    289    1.43
Mike Flanagan    7    0    0   49.1    3    2    2.37    46    15    13    3    15    3     43    0    0    2    209    1.24
Jose Nunez    9    0    0   41.1    2    1    5.88    43    28    27    3    22    2    42    0    1    2    187    1.57
Phil Niekro    3    0    0   12.0    0    2    8.25    15    11    11    4    7    0     7    0    1    1    56    1.83
David Wells    2    0    0    5.1    0    2   15.19    15    9    9    0    4    0    6    0    0    3    34    3.56
Jeff Musselman    1    0    0    4.2    0    0    1.93    3    1    1    0    1    0    1    0    1    0    18    0.86
Duane Ward    1    0    0    1.0    0    0   45.00    5    5    5    0    1    0     0    0    0    0    8    6.00

1987 Starters    162   18    3  969.1   62   44    3.89   915   458   419   109   335   19    636   13    9   37   4062    1.29



1991

Original starters: Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, David Wells, Todd Stottlemyre, Denis Boucher. The 1990 rotation had been quite good, about third best in the league - it was Stieb, Key, Stottlemyre, Flanagan, and Cerutti to start the year. Flanagan was released and David Wells eventually came in from the bullpen to replace him. After a very fine 1989 season, Cerutti slipped badly and spent some time in the pen.

The 1991 staff led the league in ERA and runs allowed per game; the starters also led the league in both departments. Toronto's starters went 67-50, 3.49 in 1014.2 IP, comfortably better than the the Angels.

Cito Gaston was the manager by 1991 - his staff the previous year had set a major league record for fewest complete games (6) in a season. (Yeah, that one's been broken.) Gaston went with a five man rotation from Opening Day, and those five men were Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, Todd Stottlemyre, David Wells, and Denis Boucher.

Key and Stottlemyre would be the two constants in the 1991 rotation, with neither missing a turn.

The adjustments began in May. Denis Boucher wasn't exactly bad - after his May 15 start he was 0-3, 4.58 in his 7 starts. But with the benefit of hindsight it's become pretty clear that if Cito Gaston thinks a guy can't cut it as a starter - we're looking at a guy who can't cut it as a starter. Certainly, Denis Boucher would not go on to prove Gaston wrong. Boucher was sent to Syracuse and veteran reliever Jim Acker took that rotation spot for a few weeks. There were much, much bigger concerns for the team to deal with than the fifth starter anyway.

At age 33, Dave Stieb was still the team's clear ace - he'd gone 51-22, 3.11 over the previous three seasons and was pitching well early in 1991. He'd hurt himself falling over first base against Oakland on May 22 and was given a few extra days off. Then Stieb was scratched from his June 1 start against the Angels (reliever Willie Fraser filled in and got shelled.) Then Stieb went on the DL for the first time in his thirteen seasons. It was his shoulder at first, and then he developed back problems that would require season ending surgery. He would never be the same again. A hard throwing 24 year old named Juan Guzman replaced him and made his major league debut on June 7. Guzman lost his first two starts, allowing 9 runs and 6 BB in 8.2 IP, and seemed on the verge of being sent back down.

Meanwhile, after a fine first outing, Acker had been hammered in three consecutive starts. Gaston sent him back to the pen and tried another reliever, rookie Mike Timlin. Timlin gave him a fine first start, and then he too got beat up in consecutive outings. Key, Stottlemyre, and Wells were keeping the staff afloat, but they badly needed some help.

They got it. Two things happened. First, in his third major league start, Juan Guzman quite suddenly figured it all out. It was like he arrived all at once - in his next 20 more starts Guzman went 10-0, 2.62. That filled one trouble spot. And to fill the other one, Gillick traded Boucher and two young outfielders (Glenallen Hill and Mark Whiten) to Cleveland for Tom Candiotti and Turner Ward.

And that settled things. Candiotti, Guzman, and Key were all outstanding, and it's extremely difficult to determine which of the three was the team's best starter. Todd Stottlemyre was a solid starter all year long.  David Wells was a little different. Wells had been a reliever in the majors until mid-way through the previous season. He had never spent a full season in the majors as a starter, and this wouldn't turn out to be the first time. Through July 24, Wells had been outstanding (12-4, 2.73) but then he started struggling. He went 2-6, 6.52 over his next 8 starts. Gaston moved Wells to the bullpen for the last three weeks of the season and went with a four man rotation down the stretch.

Final Numbers

                   GS   CG   SHO    IP     W    L    ERA     H     R     ER    HR    BB   IBB    SO   HBP  BK   WP     BF    WHIP

Todd Stottlemyre   34    1    0  219.0   15    8    3.78   194    97    92    21    75    3    116   12    0    4    921    1.23
Jimmy Key    33    2    2  209.1   16   12    3.05   207    84    71    12    44    3    125    3    0    1    877    1.20
David Wells    28    2    0   180.0   14   10    3.75   169    81    75    23    45    1    96    2    3    9    740    1.19
Juan Guzman    23    1    0   138.2   10    3    2.99    98    53    46    6    66    0    123    4    0   10    574    1.18
Tom Candiotti    19    3    0   129.2    6    7    2.98   114    47    43     6    45    1     81    4    0    5    539    1.23
Dave Stieb    9    1    0   59.2    4    3    3.17    52    22    21     4    23    0    29    2    0    0    244    1.26
Denis Boucher    7    0    0   35.1    0    3    4.58    39    20    18    6    16    1    16    2    4    0    162    1.56
Jim Acker    4    0    0   20.1    1    2    7.52    16    19    17    6    15    0     7    0    0    0    89    1.53
Mike Timlin    3    0    0   14.2    1    1    1.84    14    3    3    0    7    0    10    0    0    0    63    1.43
Pat Hentgen    1    0    0    5.0    0    0    1.80    3    1    1   1     1    0    2    1    0    0    19    0.80
Willie Fraser    1    0    0    3.0    0    1   18.00    7    6    6     1     3    0     1    2    0    1    22    3.33

1991 Starters    162   10    2  1014.2   67   50    3.49   913   433   393    86   340    9    606   32    7   30   4250    1.24



2008

Original starters: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch.. That's the way they had ended the 2007 season, which (along with Halladay and Burnett) had featured Tomo Ohka, Josh Towers, and Gustavo Chacin in the rotation at the start of the year. After the brief but unforgettable Zambrano Era, the three newbies (Marcum, McGowan, and Litsch) came along to save the day. Too late to save the season....

The 2008 staff led the league in runs allowed per game and ERA; the team's starters also led the league in both departments. They went 71-53, 3.72 in 1021.2 IP; next best was Tampa Bay (66-48, 3.95 in 973.1 IP.)

John Gibbons opened with a five man rotation of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch. Halladay and Burnett would remain in the rotation through the end of the season, but some odd circumstances saw both of them called upon to make emergency relief appearances early in the season. An extra inning marathon saw Burnett pressed into action as a reliever, so David Purcey was called up for a day to make his major league debut. A few weeks later, a lengthy rain delay took Shaun Marcum out of a game after just one inning, and Roy Halladay was called on to work in relief. Again Purcey came up to make a spot start, and again was returned to AAA immediately afterwards. Aside from those blips, the same five starters stayed in place for the first three months of the season.

By this time, the team's utterly dysfunctional offense had cost John Gibbons his job. Cito Gaston was back in the dugout, just as the young starters began breaking down. None of Marcum, McGowan, and Litsch had spent a full season in a major league rotation, and none of them would quite manage it this year. Marcum went on the shelf first, at the same time Gaston took over. His rotation spot was filled by journeyman John Parrish, called up from Syracuse.

Dustin McGowan was next to fall. On June 10, McGowan threw a career high 125 pitches in a CG win against Seattle. He started struggling after that, going 1-3, 5.81 in his next 5 starts before hitting the DL on July 10. An MRI revealed he had a torn rotator cuff. It turned out he'd had that injury since 2007 but he needed surgery anyway to repair a frayed labrum, and would miss the next three years. At least Shaun Marcum was coming back at this very moment to take McGowan's place.

At the same time, the team optioned Jesse Litsch to the minors to "make some adjustments" in the words of the GM. After a very strong start to his season, Litsch had been struggling badly for two months (1-6, 6.12 since June 1). David Purcey took his spot in the rotation.

Meanwhile, the team decided they'd seen enough of John Parrish in the rotation, and Scott Richmond got a brief audition in the rotation, making three extremely similar starts until Litsch returned in mid August.

At which point, the team made the odd decision to option Shaun Marcum to Syracuse. Marcum had indeed struggled in his first three starts since returning from the DL but he had seemed to turn things around, rolling off three fine victories in succession. But he got beat up on August 22 (3.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER) and was in AAA the next day, with his GM saying "we're going to give him a couple starts down at Triple-A to just see if he can get his mechanics back together." Yeah, right. If you believe that's the real reason Marcum was sent to AAA, there's a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to tell you about. John Parrish made one start while Marcum was gone; Marcum returned on September 5, made 2 very fine starts, and then tore his UCL which would knock him out of the rotation until 2010. Scott Richmond filled in the rest of the way.

Final Numbers

                   GS   CG   SHO    IP     W    L    ERA     H     R     ER    HR    BB   IBB    SO   HBP  BK   WP    BF    WHIP

Roy Halladay    33    9    2   243.2   20   11    2.81   219    88    76    18    39    3    204   12    0    4    980    1.06
A.J. Burnett    34    1    0   220.1   18    9    4.00   208   107    98    19    85    2    229    9    2   10    950    1.33
Jesse Litsch    28    2    2   173.0   13    9    3.54   173    77    68    19    39    2     95    8    0   4    722    1.23
Shaun Marcum    25    0    0   151.1    9    7    3.39   126    60    57    21    50    2    123    8    0    3    630    1.16
Dustin McGowan    19    1    0   111.1    6    7    4.37   115    60    54     9    38    1    85    5    0    5    474    1.37
David  Purcey    12    1    0    65.0    3    6    5.54    67    41    40     9    29    0    58    4    0    3    289    1.48
John Parrish    6    0    0    30.0    1    1    5.10    37    17    17     4     8    0    14    0    0    4    130    1.50
Scott Richmond    5    1    1    27.0    1    3    4.00    32    12    12    2     2    0    20    2    0    0    113    1.26

2008 Starters     162   15    5  1021.2   71   53    3.72   977   462   422   101   290   10    828   48    2   33   4288    1.24


What's really striking about these four starting staffs is how messed up they were. Three of the teams left the gate with guys who turned out to be bad enough that they would need to be dropped from the rotation (Leal in 1985, Johnson in 1987, Boucher in 1991.) None would ever pitch for Toronto again - two men would never pitch in the majors again. The other team lost two of their five starters to injuries that would cost each man all of the following season.

Two starters from these four teams, one of whom was arguably the best pitcher in franchise history, suffered catastrophic career-changing injuries.

And these were the best starting rotations in the league.
Ace Rotations We Have Known | 29 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 04:41 PM EST (#267357) #
Thanks, Magpie.  It's a nice reminder of how great Jimmy Key was. 
Matthew E - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 04:56 PM EST (#267358) #
Funny about that '87 team... I don't remember Musselman's start at all, and I was really paying attention that year.

I do remember Jose Nunez. He was a Rule 5 guy, as I recall, and his thing was he pitched great as long as he didn't know he was starting until he showed up at the park that day. If you gave him too long to think about it, he'd get smeared across the outfield wall.

Matthew E - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 05:03 PM EST (#267359) #
I wonder what the most stable rotations were. How would you measure that... least number of starters used? Possible, but if you give two guys each a spot start, that doesn't make your rotation less stable than if you give both starts to one guy, necessarily. Most starts by the top five pitchers? Top six?
greenfrog - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 05:21 PM EST (#267360) #
Nice idea for a post. One thing that stands out to me is the workload for some of these starters (some of this is of course the product of an earlier generation). 265, 261, 260.2, 243.2, 241.1, 220.1...having those workhorses is a real boon. This could be one of the benefits of adding Dickey, who pitched 233.2 innings last year, with an abdominal tear no less. Buehrle used to be one of those guys, but has totalled closer to 200 IP per year of late.
Magpie - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 08:03 PM EST (#267363) #
I wonder what the most stable rotations were.

I think these would be the contenders:

1982 - Clancy (40), Stieb (38), Leal (38), Gott (23). Also starring Bomback (8), Eichhorn (7), Garvin (4), Jackson (2), Geisel (2)
1983 - Stieb (36), Leal (35), Clancy (34), Gott (30), Alexander (15). Also starring Acker (5), Morgan (4), Williams (3)
1984 - Clancy (36), Stieb (35), Leal (35), Alexander (35). Also starring Gott (12), Lamp (4), Acker (3), Clark (3)
1989 - Stieb (33), Key (33), Cerutti (31), Flanagan (30). Also starring Stottlemyre (18), Wills (4), Musselman (3), Sanchez (3), Gozzo (3), Cummings (2), Nunez (1), Leiter (1)
1993 - Guzman (33), Hentgen (32), Stottlemyre (28), Morris (27), Stewart (26). Also starring Leiter (12), Brow (3), Linton (1)
1994 - Guzman (25), Hentgen (24), Stewart (22), Leiter (20), Stottlemyre (19). Also starring Cornett (4) and Spoljaric (1)

As the 1994 season ended about seven weeks early, I guess you'd have to go with 1983 or 1984.
Magpie - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 08:32 PM EST (#267364) #
I just love descriptions of ballplayers and their ways of moving on the field - it's a main reason I like Roger Angell so much. So here's Bill James himself, responding to a reader too young to have seen Roberto Clemente. The reader wondered if Roberto looked much like Vlad Guerrero ("both were high average hitters with little discipline who could crush a pitch nowhere near the strike zone and they both had terrific arms") To which Bill wrote:

he didn't LOOK anything like Guerrero. Guerrero looked as if 30% of his DNA was non-human. He had huge feet, super-long arms and he looked as if some of his joints may have been in the wrong place. Clemente was small (probably 5-10), compact, very powerful, with the body of a dancer. Guerrero would pick the ball off the wall, drop his arm, and heave the ball like a spear. Clemente would pick the ball off the wall, whirl and throw in one motion, never dropping his arm below his shoulders, getting in position to throw not by extending his arm away from his body but by shifting his body away from his arm. Everything with Clemente was a kind of a whirling motion.
grjas - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 09:01 PM EST (#267365) #
Fascinating review. I remembered some of those rotations being stronger. Rose cloured glasses i guess. Also interesting how difficult it is to get 3 starters over 14 wins . This group has the chance, but time will tell
Michael - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 09:38 PM EST (#267367) #
Seattle had a super stable rotation in 2003.

RKPLAYERTEAMGPGSIPHRERBBSOWLSVBLSVWARWHIPERA

Jamie MoyerSEA33 33 215.0 199 83 78 66 129 21 7 0 0 4.5 1.23 3.27

Freddy GarciaSEA33 33 201.1 196 109 101 71 144 12 14 0 0 1.1 1.33 4.51

Ryan Franklin SEA32 32 212.0 199 93 84 61 99 11 13 0 0 3.0 1.23 3.57

 Gil Meche SEA32 32 186.1 187 97 95 63 130 15 13 0 0 1.5 1.34 4.59

 Joel Pineiro SEA32 32 211.2 192 94 89 76 151 16 11 0 0 2.8 1.27 3.78
subculture - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 10:17 PM EST (#267369) #
I'd take this rotation, with a familiar face at #1... including their post-season results!

RK Player Team W L ERA G GS SV SVO IP▼ H R ER HR BB SO AVG WHIP
1 Buehrle, M CWS 16 8 3.12 33 33 0 0 236.2 240 99 82 20 40 149 .262 1.18
2 Garcia, F CWS 14 8 3.87 33 33 0 0 228.0 225 102 98 26 60 146 .259 1.25
3 Garland, J CWS 18 10 3.50 32 32 0 0 221.0 212 93 86 26 47 115 .255 1.17
4 Contreras, J CWS 15 7 3.61 32 32 0 0 204.2 177 91 82 23 75 154 .232 1.23
5 Hernandez, O CWS 9 9 5.24 22 22 0 0 125.1 137 77 73 18 48 87 .280 1.48
6 McCarthy, B CWS 3 2 4.17 10 10 0 0 58.1 54 27 27 11 14 39 .242 1.17
jerjapan - Thursday, December 20 2012 @ 11:28 PM EST (#267371) #
Luis Leal is someone I know nothing about ... he was just before my time.  I find it fascinating that he flamed out so quickly ... what was his story?
John Northey - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 04:56 AM EST (#267372) #
Wins aren't a good way to measure quality, but it still is interesting.

3 or more over 14 wins in Jays history...
1985: Stieb & Key at 14, Alexander at 17
1986: Key & Clancy & Eichhorn (in relief) at 14 each
1991: Wells, Stottlemyre, Key at 15/15/16 wins

Also of note...
1978: peak is 10 by Jim Clancy, no one else over 7
1979: no one reaches double digits in wins, most losses in team history only 1981 had fewer wins
1981: Stieb leads with 11, no one else over 7 (strike year)
1983: 2 made it, one at 13
1984: 2 at 16+, 2 at 13 on the nose
1987: 6 guys at 10+ wins including 2 relievers (Eichhorn & Musselman) and a swingman (Cerutti), 2 over 14 and a third at 13
1990: close with 2 at 13 and Stieb with 18
1995: 2 at 10+ with 11 & 10 wins (strike year, not as big as 94/81)
2000: Wells with 20 led, then the next highest was 10 (3 guys)
2002: Halladay with 19 was as much as the next 2 highest combined
2008: very close, 2 14+ and a third at 13
2010: so close with 2 14+ and a third at 13
2012: Leader was Morrow with 10 wins, no one else over 9

Wow, last year almost became the 2nd in Jays history with no one winning 10+, and just the 3rd time 10 or fewer led the Jays.  Last time that happened was 1979 (1978 the other year).   Given those two years saw the Jays lose 102 and 109 games vs the 89 this year that says something about how unstable the rotation was this past season and probably how many games the pen vultured from the starters.
Super Bluto - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 08:01 AM EST (#267375) #
Yeah, right. If you believe that's the real reason Marcum was sent to AAA, there's a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to tell you about.

So? What was the real reason?
bpoz - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 10:55 AM EST (#267382) #
Thanks Magpie.

From 1985-91 is 7 years. The team was good from 83-93. The pen was hard to build IMO.

Gillick built good rotations. Steib 5th round. Key 3rd round. D Wells had a great career 2nd round.

Leal & Clancy were work horses for a few years, expansion draft.

Dolye Alexander was a reclamation project. J Guzman was a minor league trade, M Sharperson.

It also seems that health is a major wildcard.

If C Carpenter could have lasted to 2005, then WOW. We just could not fit our pieces together.




bpoz - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 11:11 AM EST (#267383) #
I remember Tom Cheek calling C Carpenter J Clancy. In the game I heard "Clancy sets" and a few "Clancy delivers" or something close.

IMO Carpenter was better. I wonder what Tom saw to say that. I think Tom really knew his stuff, so he saw some similarity.
John Northey - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 11:20 AM EST (#267385) #
For wasted talent, the 1998 Jays fit the pitching bill.  A rotation that had to pick 5 from Clemens, Hentgen, Carpenter, Escobar, Guzman, Williams, Stieb, Halladay yet still found 8 starts for Eric Hanson.  It was a bad year for most though as Clemens had a Cy year, Escobar a 124 ERA+, 3 in the low 100's (Carpenter, Guzman, Williams) Stieb in the 90's, Hentgen 89.  A staff that could've been amazing but just had 88 wins which still is the high water mark since 1993. 

Think about it, 4 guys who'd have a Cy Young on their mantle at some point, a guy who once was the best in baseball (but never got a Cy), a former ERA champ (Guzman) who was just 31, and 2 guys who'd be solid starters for stretches (Williams & Escobar).  Sigh.  Delgado/Green in their primes, Fernandez having a great year, Canseco doing well... sigh.  Wonder if the Jays hired Davy Johnson instead of Tim Johnson if they might have done it that year.

Thomas - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 12:47 PM EST (#267390) #
Thanks Magpie. Great work.
Dave Till - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 01:29 PM EST (#267392) #
Luis Leal is someone I know nothing about ... he was just before my time.  I find it fascinating that he flamed out so quickly ... what was his story?

At the time, I remember asking myself the same question.

Looking at his numbers, I notice that he had relatively high hit and home run totals and fairly low strikeout totals - this suggests that he didn't have great stuff and was doomed when he lost something off of it.
Mike Green - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 05:15 PM EST (#267397) #
Happy holidays, everyone.
Chuck - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 06:48 PM EST (#267399) #
Le papillon indeed.
grjas - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 07:00 PM EST (#267400) #
1998 record. Thought the 114 win year by the yankees might have slowed the Jays down. But according to data below they had a 500 record vs yankees. Also they had a great record in one run games and had no unusually bad splits against any team. The only ral outlier is the spread in their win/loss at home vs in the road. Not sure that means much.

So how knows why they got stuck at 88 wins. Was surely disappointing then, and agian next year. But not for the last 10

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/schedule.php?y=1998&t=TOR
Magpie - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 07:28 PM EST (#267403) #
What was the real reason?

There are two stories, one involving his love of the night-life, and one involving his deportment in the clubhouse. There are still people in the front office who hold it - whatever it really was - against him.

I think Tom really knew his stuff, so he saw some similarity [between Carpenter and Clancy].

My first guess would be he thought they looked a bit alike on the mound. Tall right-handers with very simple and straightforward deliveries.
CeeBee - Friday, December 21 2012 @ 09:42 PM EST (#267404) #
I really like the Orioles 1971 rotation.
Mike Cuellar 20-9 3.08 292 IP
Pat Dobson 20-8 2.90 282 IP
Jim Palmer 20-9 2.68 282 IP
Dave McNally 20-5 2.89 224 IP
Only 16 starts by 3 other players Grant Jackson 9, Dave Leonard 6 and Dave Boswell 1.
John Northey - Saturday, December 22 2012 @ 01:41 PM EST (#267416) #
Just was thinking about 'most stable' and since I've done the Rays to death howsabout the 2011 Dodgers?  4 guys with 32/33 starts each yet just 82 wins for the team.  5 guys split the 5th slot with 3 of them at a 100+ ERA+.

That wasn't a one off either...
2012: 3 over 30
2010: 3 over 30
2009: 3 at 30+ - won division with 95 wins
2008: yup, 3 at 30+
2007: finally just 2 (3rd best was 20 starts) and 82 wins, just like 2011.  Go figure, their fewest at 30+ in the time frame yet the same record as the year they had 4 of them.

In that stretch they had the one playoff appearance and 80-86 wins (aka Jays territory) the rest of the time.  Tells you that stability in the rotation is nice but you need more than that to win.
John Northey - Saturday, December 22 2012 @ 11:43 PM EST (#267426) #
For 2013 the AAA staff is now getting crowded.  The majors has Dickey/Johnson/Morrow/Buehrle/Romero/Happ but in AAA we have Chad Jenkins, Dustin McGowan, David Bush and AAA vet starters/non-roster invitees Claudio Vargas, Ramon Ortiz, and Justin Germano.  Mix in Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison in mid-season too not to mention anyone in AA who will be promoted.  I suspect Jenkins will be in the pen, McGowan might be claimed via waivers (unlikely but possible).  Still, that is nice depth in AAA and will let guys like McGuire, Stilson, Lawrence and other prospects stay in AA.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 23 2012 @ 10:48 AM EST (#267429) #
According to The Fielding Bible, the Jays had the best fielding team in the majors last year (70 runs saved). Make of it what you will. Does it mean that the evaluation system was messed up by the shift? That the loss of Butter, Escobar, Mathis and/or Hechavarria will hurt the Jays? That Rasmus, Bautista and EE are better than we think?

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/59627/mets-appear-on-2012-worst-fielding-list
hypobole - Sunday, December 23 2012 @ 12:52 PM EST (#267430) #
I would think the shift played a good part in saving runs. What the shift does is mess up individual numbers, as it may be difficult to assign the saved run to the right player, but team-wise it should be more accurate.

As long as the Jays continue to employ the system Butter used, they should continue to put up above average defensive numbers.

One other note on this vein - the 4 best fielding pitchers by DRS the past 3 years:

1(T)- Mark Buehrle
1(T)- Jake Westbrook
3 - R.A. Dickey
4 - Ricky Romero

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/58085/r-a-dickey-potential-trade-post
TimberLee - Monday, December 24 2012 @ 09:58 AM EST (#267449) #
I check here almost every day and enjoy most of what is offered here, so thanks to all the contributors. Merry Christmas to all and best wishes for you and the Jays for 2013.
John Northey - Monday, December 24 2012 @ 12:59 PM EST (#267458) #
It has been quite the year in Jays land.  Lets go over a few position changes...
CA: JPA/Mathis - JPA/Buck - JPA/Josh Thole.
1B: Lind - Encarnacion (some Cooper in there too & Gomes)
2B: Johnson - Maicer Izturis
3B: Lawrie
SS: Escobar - Reyes
LF: Snider/Thames - Davis - Gose - Melky Cabrera
CF: Rasmus (brief time by Davis & Gose)
RF: Bautista (brief time by Gose, Sierra, Davis)
DH: Encarnacion (was to platoon with Francisco we all though but that never happened) - Lind (some Cooper in there too)

Not exact, but a general idea.  3B/CF/RF didn't see any real change, just subs while injured.  DH/1B flipped over the year as to who plays which.  Upgrades are 2B, SS, and LF (LF by a mile), I don't see any real downgrades other than Lind at DH vs Encarnacion.

Hechavarria and Vizquel had a lot of playing time too (over 10 games each at 3B & SS, Vizquel over 10 at 2B too) and both are gone, replaced by Emilio Bonifacio and who knows.

Rotation...
Ace: Romero - R.A. Dickey
#2: Morrow - Josh Johnson
#3: Alvarez - Mark Buehrle
#4: Drabek - Morrow
#5: Carreno - Romero

Others: Laffey, Villanueva, Hutchison, Cecil, Happ, Jenkins, Chavez
New others: Happ, Dave Bush, Greg Smith, Ramon Ortiz, Cecil, and who knows who else.
Oh yeah, slight upgrade.  Can argue Morrow is #3 now or Alvarez was #4 to start the season, but that is the general order.

Quite a few changes indeed.
Richard S.S. - Monday, December 24 2012 @ 03:58 PM EST (#267460) #

At Catcher we have J.P. Arencibia, Backup Josh Thole, and AAA Backup Mike Nickeas  . That's satisfactory as both backups can catch R.A. Dickey and Thole's career average is higher than any catcher we've had.   Beyond that I have no idea who's capable.

At First Base we have Edwin Encarnacion, Backup and DH Adam Lind, and AAA Backup David Cooper.   Cooper has shown he plays well here.  Adam Lind only hits RHP well.   Beyond this point we might have a problem as who's behind Cooper?

At Second Base we have Maicer Izturis; at Short Stop we have Jose Reyes; at Third Base we have Brett Lawrie  ; their only backup would be Maicer Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio.   No one else is MLB-quality-ready and that's unsatisfactory and a problem.

In the Outfield we have Jose Bautista; Colby Rasmus; Melky Cabrera; with Backup Rajai Davis and Emilio Bonifacio.  At AAA we have Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra as satisfactory backup.

As Starters, we have R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero.  The #6  Starter is J.A. Happ and he's in the Bullpen in Long Relief.  I'd suggest #7 could be Brett Cecil for a start or two, but not someone I'm comfortable with longer term.   Withn Chad Jenkins, Dave Bush and others we might survive, but I'd like someone better than Chad or Dave as #8 Starter.

I don't know the composition of the Bullpen, but we may have problems.   Are Sergio Santos and Casey Janssen healthy and ready to start the season?   Steve Delabar, Brad Lincoln, Esmil Roger are power arms but with a limited track record.   Brad Lincoln still has an option so can be in AAA if needed.  Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup, Darren Oliver and J.A. Happ are LHP.   Aaron Loup has options still, while Darren Oliver should no longer be consider part of this Bullpen going forward.   Jeremy Jeffress has a power arm with major control issues.  I'm not comfortable without a quality LHP added to the Bullpen, but a quality RHP might do in a pinch.

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